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MLBTR Poll: Bounce-Back Year For Rockies?

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A year ago at this time, the Rockies were just months removed from their second consecutive playoff season. It was the first time in the franchise’s existence that it had earned back-to-back playoff berths, and Colorado likely expected the good times to keep rolling in 2019. Instead, the Rockies ended up as one of the majors’ worst teams, finishing 71-91 en route to a fourth-place standing in the National League West.

We’re nearing a new season, but the Rockies don’t look like a team that’ll make a significant rebound in 2020. For one, multiple teams in the Rockies’ division figure to serve as roadblocks to potential improvement. The Dodgers should find themselves among the game’s best teams again, while the Diamondbacks and Padres look to have gotten better since last season.

The Rockies, like their division-rival Giants, have done little to nothing to bolster their roster since the previous campaign concluded. They’ve signed only one major league free agent – inexpensive right-hander Jose Mujica – and have managed to alienate their franchise player. Third baseman Nolan Arenado, who signed a seven-year, $234MM extension last February, has come up in trade talks in recent months. Additionally, he has expressed his unhappiness toward the Rockies for not upgrading the roster around him.

Despite an offseason of rumors, the 28-year-old remains a Rockie – someone they’re currently hoping will help them back to playoff position this season. But it doesn’t appear he has a ton of offensive support beyond shortstop Trevor Story and the outfield tandem of Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl. Meanwhile, Colorado’s rotation was ghastly a year ago, but there haven’t been notable changes in that area. The club’s instead betting on bounce-back years from holdovers such as Kyle Freeland, Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw.

While they’ve done almost nothing on paper to improve themselves since last year’s woeful showing, there’s internal optimism the Rockies will be much better this season. Owner Dick Monfort said earlier this month he believes the Rockies will win 94 games. That’s an especially sanguine prediction for an organization that has never amassed more than 92 victories in a season. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections strongly disagree with Monfort, pegging the Rockies for 77 wins. Granted, those projections aren’t the end-all, be-all – they called for an 85-win Rockies season before 2019 – so perhaps Monfort’s not as delusional as he seems. Regardless, assuming they begin the season with Arenado on their roster, how do you expect the Rockies’ year to turn out?

(Poll link for app users)

How many games will the Rockies win?
71-79 61.48% (3,657 votes)
80-89 23.97% (1,426 votes)
70 or fewer 10.96% (652 votes)
90 or more 3.58% (213 votes)
Total Votes: 5,948

Jeff Bridich On Relationship With Nolan Arenado

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We’re nearing the one-year anniversary of the mammoth extension the Rockies awarded superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado last February. The club gave Arenado a franchise-record $234MM over seven years on a deal that won’t take effect until this season. There have already been trade rumors centering on Arenado, though, as well as a rift in the two sides’ relationship.

Arenado said last month “there’s a lot of disrespect from people there that I don’t want to be a part of,” and it’s not because his name has surfaced in trade talks. Rather, Arenado is reportedly annoyed that the Rockies haven’t made a clear attempt to better themselves after going from back-to-back playoff berths in 2017 and ’18 to a 71-win showing last season. The 28-year-old five-time All-Star remains a Rockie, however, and he assured last week that he won’t do anything behind the scenes to disrupt the team if he does stay in place.

Arenado’s beef is largely with general manager Jeff Bridich, who discussed the relationship he has with his franchise player Tuesday at Cactus League media day (via Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). Bridich and Arenado haven’t sat down to clear the air yet, “But I trust that we will,” Bridich said.

The GM added that he’s hoping he and Arenado will get past their issues “through communication.” Regardless, Bridich emphasized that the goal is for the team to put together a much better year in 2020. Whether Arenado will be a part of it may be in question, but with seemingly no clubs making strong pushes to acquire him or his enormous contract (which includes an opt-out after 2021), it does seem he’ll at least start the upcoming season in Colorado.

Nolan Arenado Discusses Relationship With Rockies

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It hasn’t even been a full 12 months since third baseman Nolan Arenado signed a whopper of an extension with the Rockies, but the relationship between the two has already grown frosty. Arenado said late last month that he felt “disrespected” by the Rockies. Trade rumors were swirling around Arenado at the time, but that wasn’t the problem. Rather, he was reportedly irked because the Rockies made little effort to improve in the offseason after winning just 71 games in 2019.

With spring training in its early stages, there remains a “disconnect” between Arenado and the Rockies, he admitted to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports. While Arenado isn’t thrilled with Rockies higher-ups, the relationship isn’t necessarily irreparable, nor will Arenado be a disruptive force behind the scenes if the team does retain him.

On the contrary, Arenado said to Brown: “To be honest with you, there is a disconnect right now, right? There’s a little bit of a disconnect. But that doesn’t mean it can’t be fixed. It doesn’t mean that I’m not gonna go out there and play hard for my teammates. Or be a negative presence in that locker room. That’s just not me. It’s not how I’m going to do things. I’m not going to be there trying to show them I don’t want to be there. I’m not going to be that way. That’s not fair. That’s drawing attention to me.”

That’s good news for the Rockies, who inked Arenado to a franchise-record seven-year, $234MM contract before last season. However, Arenado noted that he doesn’t regret anything he has said this offseason. The bottom line remains that the five-time All-Star wants to play for a contender.

“I’ve been to All-Star Games. I’ve done some special things, you know? I’ve won Gold Gloves,” he told Brown. “Those all mean a lot to me. At the end of the day the goal is to win. They signed me to win. And I want to be on a winner. If that’s in Colorado or somewhere else, I want to win.”

The Rockies made playoff appearances in 2017 and ’18, the first two of Arenado’s career, but they’ve fallen flat since then. The club, led by owner Dick Monfort and general manager Jeff Bridich, has signed just one major league free agent (unproven righty Jose Mujica) since last season ended. Thanks in part to that, the Rockies aren’t favored to push for a playoff spot this year.

While there’s certainly a case that Arenado’s within reason to be upset, that doesn’t mean he’ll be going anywhere before the season opens. Among his potential suitors, the Cardinals have indicated they don’t have payroll space for such a mega acquisition; the Rangers don’t expect anything to come together right now; the Nationals like their third basemen; and the Cubs probably aren’t moving Kris Bryant for Arenado.

Rizzo Downplays Nationals’ Interest In Trade For Third Baseman

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While we’ve heard some chatter suggesting the Nationals remain interested in trading for a top-shelf third baseman, Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo downplayed the possibility in comments to assembled media members including Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington (Twitter link).

Rizzo didn’t exactly stamp out the possibility of a late-breaking addition. But he certainly poured a bucket of cold water on recent hints that the Nats could still be talking with teams like the Rockies (Nolan Arenado) and Cubs (Kris Bryant).

“We’re not looking to make a trade,” says Rizzo. “It’s nothing that’s been a priority for us in the offseason.”

It would be foolish to assume that those comments are decisive. After all, no executive would fully commit the team’s direction through the media. And Rizzo in particular has acted counter to his public indications in the past.

That said, the Nats’ multiple, smaller veteran infield additions run counter to the concept of a major trade for a third baseman. It’s possible to imagine a reshuffling of the roster that would accommodate a new star player, but the organization might’ve stayed its hand a bit more with its earlier moves if it saw that as a plausible outcome.

As things stand, the D.C. organization will seek to defend its crown by relying upon a gathering of options at third (and second) base. The team hopes that youngster Carter Kieboom can lock up the job in camp, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes. Otherwise, it’ll be a matter of mixing and matching. Another inexperienced player, Jake Noll, also has a 40-man spot and could push for a shot with a big spring. Veterans Asdrubal Cabrera, Howie Kendrick, and Starlin Castro all have spent time at the hot corner. Adrian Sanchez and Wilmer Difo will compete for a utility gig with veteran Emilio Bonifacio.

Latest On Cubs, Kris Bryant

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TODAY: Casting further cold water on the Bryant/Arenado rumors, a source tells Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post that this speculation could be “media noise” from the Cubs themselves, trying to spur on better offers from other teams (i.e. the Phillies, Nationals, Braves) that could have interest in Bryant.

FEBRUARY 12: When Major League Basbeall’s offseason started, the Cubs looked like one of the sport’s most intriguing teams. After collapsing last season and finishing with 84 wins, there was an expectation the Cubs’ roster would undergo a drastic makeover. That hasn’t happened at all, though, and the Cubs have largely been quiet this winter. They’ve made no earth-shattering acquisitions (apologies to Steven Souza Jr., Jason Kipnis and Jeremy Jeffress) or roster-altering trades, though they have lost a few notable players – including Nicholas Castellanos and Cole Hamels – since the winter began.

President of baseball operations Theo Epstein addressed the Cubs’ offseason Tuesday, saying (via Jordan Bastian of MLB.com), “I’ll be honest, it hasn’t been as much turnover as we expected.” Epstein noted, though, that the Cubs aren’t going to make changes for the sake of it, and he still has high expectations for the team as it’s currently constructed.

Chicago does indeed have quite a bit of talent still on hand, and third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant may be atop the list. The former NL MVP continues to be the subject of trade rumors, however, and dealing him and his $18.6MM salary would enable the Cubs’ maligned ownership to get under the $208MM luxury-tax threshold in 2020. As things stand, the Cubs are projected for a tax payroll just south of $214MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs.

If the Cubs are more worried about competing than ducking the tax, the 28-year-old Bryant could remain an important cog in helping them rebound in 2020. However, multiple teams have shown interest in acquiring him. The Rangers, Rockies, Nationals and Phillies have discussed Bryant with the Cubs recently, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com.

Aside from the Rockies, who have the disgruntled Nolan Arenado at third base, those teams could use upgrades at the hot corner. There has been talk of an Arenado-Bryant swap, but that has always seemed far-fetched, and there aren’t indications that Bryant will wind up with anyone else imminently. The Cubs could instead choose to keep Bryant, attempt to push for a playoff spot this season and see where they stand around the July trade deadline. Considering that Epstein still believes in the talent the club still has, Chicago may well go that way.

Rockies Win Arbitration Hearing Against Tony Wolters

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The Rockies have won their arbitration hearing against catcher Tony Wolters, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). He’d been seeking $2.475MM but will instead receive $1.9MM for the 2020 campaign (as reflected in MLBTR’s 2020 Arbitration Tracker).

It’s the second year of arbitration for the 27-year-old Wolters, who earned $960K in 2019 and will be eligible twice more as a Super Two player. The light-hitting backstop is known far more for his defensive abilities than his bat, although he improved over his 2018 production substantially this past season (.170/.292/.286 in 2018; .262/.337/.329 in 2019).

In parts of four MLB seasons, all with the Rockies, Wolters has managed just a .239/.327/.324 output in 1123 trips to the plate. Offensive production from the catcher position — or a lack thereof — has been a problem for the Rockies for the past several years, but they appear content to proceed with Wolters and one of Dom Nunez, Elias Diaz or Drew Butera serving as the primary options behind the plate after a quiet offseason.

The Rockies’ win over Wolters further tips the 2020 scales in favor of teams, who have gone a perfect 4-for-4 in hearings against players. In addition to Wolters/Rockies case, the Braves have topped Shane Greene, the Dodgers have won over Joc Pederson and the Twins have bested Jose Berrios.

Cubs Still Discussing Kris Bryant Trade Scenarios

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Spring Training is already getting rolling, but it seems there’s still some possibility for a big deal or two. The Cubs are still talking through possible Kris Bryant trade scenarios with rival organizations, according to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (subscription link).

There’s still no indication that Bryant is particularly likely to be dealt, or that talks are especially hot and heavy with any given team. But the Chicago organization is not only “still active in the trade market,” per Mooney, but is “feeling a sense of urgency to do something” to improve the roster.

Potential landing spots remain as obvious as ever on paper — and as obscure as ever in terms of firm public knowledge. Mooney says the Rockies and Cubs still haven’t “completely dismissed” sorting out a wild swap involving Nolan Arenado, but it remains awfully hard to see that coming together.

Otherwise, we can only assess reasonable fits based upon an analysis of rosters, balance sheets, and tangential reporting. The Rangers make a good bit of conceptual sense as a match. It seems fair to wonder whether the Padres could engage the Cubs after missing on Mookie Betts, with the idea of utilizing Bryant in the corner outfield. The Phillies certainly could stand to improve at third base; the Braves and Nationals also make some degree of sense.

As much as anything, the still-open situation makes for added intrigue as the Cubs prepare to launch a fascinating spring. The team is not only attempting a cultural re-boot, but still has quite a few roster and playing-time situations to sort through. And there’ll be no shortage of scrutiny after another deafeningly quiet winter on the transactional front.

Rockies Sign Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Collins To Minor League Contracts

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The Rockies announced a series of minor league signings Wednesday, most notably revealing a reunion with right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez, a new deal with righty Tim Melville and an agreement with veteran lefty reliever Tim Collins. They’ll all be in Major League camp with the Rockies during Spring Training, as will several other veterans whose signings have been previously reported (e.g. Chris Owings, Drew Butera, Elias Diaz).

It’s been more than two years since the now-36-year-old Jimenez appeared on a Major League mound and nearly a decade since he last donned a Rockies uniform. From 2008-10, Jimenez was a bona fide top-of-the-rotation arm for the Rox, pitching to a combined 3.43 ERA (3.42 FIP) with 8.2 K/9 against 3.9 BB/9 in 638 1/3 innings in Colorado. Given the hitter-friendly nature of Coors Field, Jimenez’s park-adjusted production was 37 percent better than that of a league-average pitcher (by measure of ERA+). Colorado eventually traded him to the Indians for a prospect packaged headlined by Drew Pomeranz.

After a rough year and a half in Cleveland, Jimenez peaked at the perfect time, tossing 182 2/3 innings of 3.30 ERA ball in his walk year with the Indians. He set out into free agency and landed a four-year, $50MM contract that quickly proved to be a misstep for the O’s. Jimenez gave Baltimore one season of league-average innings (184 innings, 4.11 ERA, 100 ERA+ in 2015) but was otherwise one of the least-effective starters in MLB throughout his time there. He hasn’t appeared in the Majors since throwing his final pitch for the Orioles in 2017.

Melville, meanwhile, started seven games for the Rockies just this past season, tallying 33 1/3 frames of 4.86 ERA ball with a 24-to-14 K/BB ratio. The 30-year-old journeyman was signed out of the independent Atlantic League and wound up making a combined 24 starts between Triple-A and the Majors, although his minor league numbers were rather unsightly. In 96 1/3 innings with Triple-A Albuquerque, Melville limped to a 5.42 ERA and yielded an average of 2.2 homers per nine innings pitched.

Collins, also 30, pitched 8 2/3 innings with the Cubs and surrendered three runs on nine hits and three walks with four strikeouts in that short time. His work in Triple-A similarly left plenty to be desired, as he walked 19 batters and served up seven homers in just 31 innings.

It’s of course worth noting that both the Triple-A International League and Pacific Coast League in 2019 were a nightmare for pitchers, as Triple-A hitters teed off on the same juiced ball that led to the massive home run spike we witnessed in the Majors. Collins, in particular, had a sharp Triple-A track record prior to 2019 and was at one point a quality reliever with the Royals (2011-14) before multiple Tommy John surgeries slowed his career.

Rockies Notes: Monfort, Murphy, Hilliard

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The Rockies lost 91 games in 2019, and they haven’t signed a single major league free agent, but Chairman and CEO Dick Monfort predicts a 94-win season in Colorado, per The Denver Post’s Kyle Newman. That would be a franchise high for the Rockies, who thrice have won 90 games but never exceeded 92. And of course, they have yet to capture their first NL West crown. Let’s stick with the Rockies…

  • Monfort cites the 2007 to 2009 Rockies as precedent for his projection, who sandwiched a pair of playoff teams around an 88-loss unit in 2008. The core of the Rox’ 91-win team from 2018 remains largely intact (for now) with Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Charlie Blackmon leading the offense, while Jon Gray, German Marquez and Kyle Freeland front the rotation. Of course, questions abound for that group, from performance to health to Arenado’s recent comments about the team. The Rockies were a top-10 unit by measure of runs scored even in 2019, so a turnaround isn’t impossible. Significant, wholesale improvements from the pitching staff would have to figure heavily in a turnaround after the staff ranked 29th in the majors with a 5.58 ERA in 2019.
  • Daniel Murphy will be a key player to watch in 2020, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Murphy seemed like a great fit for Coors Field heading into 2019, but an injury slowed the start of his season and the offensive numbers never really surfaced. Murphy doesn’t bring a plus glove at first base, so his contribution needs to come with the bat. A .279/.328/.452 line was his lowest mark across the board since 2015.
  • Of the young players, Sam Hilliard has a chance to break into the everyday lineup, per MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. The lefty masher put up a 1.006 OPS in 27 games last year, an impressive audition. He’s a candidate to take the strong end of a platoon with Ian Desmond in left. Hilliard will have to prove he can make enough contact to see his name on the lineup card daily, but with his combination of speed and power, the physical gifts are there.

Rockies Agree To Two-Year Contract With Trevor Story

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January 31: The Rockies have now formally announced Story’s two-year deal. Feinsand tweets that Story will be paid a $2MM signing bonus, an $8MM salary in 2020 and a $17.5MM salary in 2021.

January 24, 8:39pm: It is indeed an arbitration-only contract, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan tweets. Story will receive $27.5MM over the two-year term. The Rockies will not gain control over any prospective open-market seasons but will gain some cost certainty as part of the deal.

8:36pm: The Rockies are closing in on a “multi-year deal” with star shortstop Trevor Story, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and Jon Morosi (Twitter link). It is not yet clear whether the contract would cover any potential free agent seasons or merely settle multiple arbitration campaigns at one time.

Needless to say, a long-term extension would be a fascinating development given all the recent chatter regarding fellow star Nolan Arenado. If it’s merely an arb work-out, it’d be a notable but hardly headlining development.

Story has filed for a $11.5MM salary, with the Rockies countering at a $10.75MM offer. He’s in his second season of arbitration eligibility after earning $5MM in 2019. Story is slated to reach free agency at the end of the 2021 campaign.

Regardless of the contract specifics, the 27-year-old Story figures to be a monster again on the field in 2020. He’s coming off of a second-straight 30+ homer, 5+ fWAR effort. Story strikes out more than you’d like and only draws walks at league-average levels, but is still an exceptionally well-rounded performer. He hits for average with loads of power, contributes value on the bases, and is an outstanding defender at short.

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