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Trade Candidate: Jon Gray

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The Rockies are coming off a 71-win season, and even the most optimistic observer would be hard-pressed to expect a major bounce-back effort in 2020. Not only are the Rockies stuck in a division with the juggernaut Dodgers, who figure to rule the NL West yet again next year, but the Rox seemingly aren’t in position to spend their way out of the hole they’ve dug for themselves. Rockies owner Dick Monfort has said the team lacks payroll flexibility, which suggests it won’t be in for an offseason of headline-worthy acquisitions.

[RELATED: Rockies Offseason Outlook]

The Rockies opened this year with a franchise record $145MM-plus in payroll, and they’re already in line for a 2020 outlay in the $160MM range, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource and FanGraphs. At least a small portion of that is slated to belong to right-hander Jon Gray, who MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects will make $5.6MM via arbitration next season. However, considering next year will be Gray’s penultimate season of control, now may be as good a time as any for Colorado to trade him.

Gray, who turned 28 earlier this week, has endured his share of ups and downs since he joined the Rockies as the third overall pick in 2013. His results have alternated between very good (especially for someone stuck pitching half his games in hitter-friendly Colorado) and unspectacular, with Gray’s output this year falling in line more with the first category. He racked up 150 innings of 3.84 ERA/4.06 FIP ball with 9.0 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and a personal-best 50.4 percent groundball rate. Along the way, Gray posted a career-high 96.1 average mph on his fastball, which ranked in the majors’ 89th percentile, per Statcast.

Aside from his velocity, Gray wasn’t any kind of Statcast hero in 2019, as he finished toward the bottom of the league in most of its key categories. Nevertheless, Gray’s most recent production, his career numbers (4.46 ERA/3.77 FIP with 9.4 K/9, 2.96 BB/9 and a 47.1 percent grounder rate) and his affordability over the next couple years would likely lead to plenty of interest if the Rockies were to place him on the trading block.

With few possible exceptions (Corey Kluber? Matthew Boyd? Chris Archer? Jose Quintana?), this offseason’s class of starters who might be attainable via trade doesn’t look as if it’ll be teeming with front-line potential. Meanwhile, free agency has two obvious aces – Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg – followed by Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu and a series of flawed choices. It’s possible some starter-needy teams would just assume swing a trade for Gray than pay up for someone like Jake Odorizzi, who’d also cost a draft pick to reel in, or sign another good but unspectacular free agent.

With Gray, it seems the worst-case scenario is that an acquiring team would be picking up a competent mid- to back-end starter who wouldn’t put much of a dent in its payroll. Best case? The hard-throwing Gray morphs into a front-of-the-rotation bargain. With that in mind, it’s easy to imagine a slew of contenders lining up for Gray’s services if the Rockies were to make him available. Colorado owns one of the majors’ least impressive farm systems (per Baseball America), and dealing Gray could help the franchise improve its class of pre-MLB talent. Moreover, the Rockies doesn’t appear likely to contend in 2020, and there hasn’t been any word about a potential Gray extension. All that said, this looks like an opportune time for general manager Jeff Bridich to consider parting with Gray.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giants Claim Rico Garcia

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The Giants have claimed righty Rico Garcia off waivers from the Rockies, per MLB.com’s William Boor (via Twitter). It’s yet another pitching addition for the always-active San Francisco organization.

Garcia, 26 in January, briefly touched the majors in 2019. He showed only a 90.4 mph average fastball and didn’t get many swings and misses, though it’s awfully hard to read much into a six-inning sample.

It was a bit of an odd season for Garcia, who struggled in the bigs and in a 13-start stint at Triple-A. Before that, though, he was quite successful at the Double-A level, where he spun 68 innings of 1.85 ERA ball with 11.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and a 49.3% groundball rate.

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Rockies endured one of the more disappointing seasons of their 27-year history in 2019. It may seem hard to remember now, but just a season ago, the 91-win Rockies came within one game of derailing the Dodgers’ now-seven-year run of dominance in the NL West. This season, they floated around .500 for much of the first half before face-planting hard in July and August. Despite scoring 55 more runs overall, the 2019 Rockies finished with an inverse record of the year prior at 71-91, 35 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B: $234MM through 2024 (opt-out after 2021)
  • Charlie Blackmon, RF: $43MM through 2021 ($21MM player option for 2022, $10MM player option for 2023)
  • Wade Davis, RP: $17MM in 2020 ($15MM mutual option for 2021 with $1MM buyout, becomes player option with 30 games finished in 2020)
  • Ian Desmond, 1B/OF: $23MM through 2021 ($15MM club option in 2022 with $2MM buyout)
  • Daniel Murphy, 1B: $8MM in 2020 ($12MM mutual option in 2021, $6MM buyout)
  • Bryan Shaw, RP:$9MM in 2020 ($9MM club option in 2021 with $2MM buyout)
  • Jake McGee, RP: $9.5MM in 2020 ($9MM club option in 2021 with $2MM buyout)
  • German Marquez, SP:$38MM through 2023 ($16MM club option for 2024, $2.5MM buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

This team is equipped with high-end, in-their-prime talent on offense, stunning regressions to reckon with in the rotation, and an overpaid bullpen still one season from financial freedom. The likeliest route to flipping the script (again) and returning to playoff form – and this won’t be fun to hear – is probably internal improvement. On that front, Bud Black and company have more questions than answers.

What’s worse, if you’ll pardon a mixed metaphor, the front office has their backs against the bottom line: per Cot’s Contracts, the Rockies ran out an Opening Day payroll of just over $145MM, a team record they’ve reset every season since 2014. Assume a $9MM jump to mirror their rise in payroll the past two offseasons, and a 2020 Opening Day payroll would land around $156MM. Unfortunately, even after the subtraction of Anderson and Bettis, Roster Resource projects their current payroll at around $159MM.

There’s just not much wiggle room in the numbers. The money owed either belongs to core members of the roster (Arenado, Story, Gray, Marquez) or unmovable veterans performing below or near replacement level (Davis, Shaw, McGee, Desmond). In another year, the commitment to those four drops from $50.5MM to $13MM, assuming Davis finishes fewer than 30 games (which shouldn’t be a problem after an 8.65 ERA in 50 outings this season).

Thinking creatively, maybe there’s an AL team out there in love with Charlie Blackmon. Despite manning right field for the Rockies, the numbers say Blackmon’s no longer a super-viable option for NL teams (he stepped down the defensive spectrum in 2019 but remained among the worst-rated defensive outfielders in the game with -9 Outs Above Average). Blackmon doesn’t steal bases anymore, though a 125 wRC+ pegs him as genuine asset at the dish – in good company with Bryce Harper, Gleyber Torres and Matt Chapman. Still, the total Blackmon package rounded down to just 2.0 fWAR in 2019 –  fine production for a regular position player, but shy of true All-Star status, unfortunately, given the All-Star money still coming his way ($64MM over the next three seasons, by the end of which he’ll be 36 years old). There aren’t many teams with a need at designated hitter, and with cheaper, shorter-term alternatives on the market like Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Abreu, Howie Kendrick, Avisail Garcia, among others, it seems likely Blackmon remains in Colorado for 2020.

The other fatty contract they could look to move belongs to Daniel Murphy. With just $14MM guaranteed remaining, it’s possible GM Jeff Bridich could find a taker, but it’s not the best time to sell on the soon-to-be 35-year-old. Even if someone takes the contract, after a less-than-inspiring .279/.328/.452 line, a trade won’t net much talent in return or provide enough relief to afford a difference maker in free agency. However, losing Murphy’s $8MM could be enough to grab a rotation arm on a one-year deal in the mold of Wade Miley.

They could instead explore moving Ryan McMahon, who filled out their infield quartet this season by taking on full-time responsibilities at second base. On the surface his .250/.329/.450 line with 24 home runs looks okay, but 88 wRC+ puts him 12 percent below league average without enough defensive fortitude to make up the difference. A near 30 percent strikeout rate more or less tells the tale for McMahon. Still, he and Murphy provide too much the same skillset to make their pairing on the right side a benefit, and if Bridich gets creative he might use the surplus to shuffle some pieces around.

A significant shakeup doesn’t seem possible without moving one of their core assets. It would not be easy to break up Arenado and Story, who make up, essentially, a perfect left side of the infield. They’re both plus-plus defenders and power hitters in their athletic prime who are beloved by the fan base. Arenado enjoys full no-trade protection, and the organization has shown little interest in trading Story. That said, with an estimated $11.5MM coming his way and another arbitration season to follow, it’s a logical time to move him. It won’t be fun, but a Story trade might be what’s best for the long-term health of the franchise.

Also a key part of this conversation is top prospect Brendan Rodgers, who struggled over two big league stints before a torn labrum ended his season in July. He’s not the defender at shortstop that Story is, but he can probably stick there if need be. If he becomes the full-time second baseman, that means bumping McMahon into a full-time utility role until Murphy’s contract runs out. That would make sense if the Rockies weren’t strapped for cash and in need of serious help on the pitching side. There’s definitely a trade to be made somewhere on the offensive end of the roster, but it’s doubtful any of the Rockies’ imperfect-fitting bats carry enough value to make much of a difference via trade. Story or David Dahl are exceptions, though  the organization seems intent on keeping them.

Speaking of Dahl, the Rockies plan to keep him in center next year, and though he’s passable up-the-middle, he’s not exactly a profit center out there from a defensive standpoint. Offensively, he’s produced as promised, despite being continually beset by ticky-tack injuries like the high ankle sprain that cost him the second half of 2019. As a .297/.346/.521 career hitter, he is no doubt an asset on that side of the ball, but he’s also a qualified Super Two facing an arbitration raise for the first time this season despite never putting together a full season.

Outside of a successful cup of coffee from Sam Hilliard and decent play from free agent castoff Yonder Alonso, the Rockies’ offense cratered after their core four (Arenado, Story, Blackmon and Dahl). Tony Wolters and Garrett Hampson have elite skills – defense and speed, respectively – but have yet to shore up the weaker parts of their games. Ian Desmond can line up at multiple outfield positions and first base, but his bat doesn’t play at of those spots. Raimel Tapia took a full turn in left field at age 25 and came up empty, as fWAR and bWAR agree that he was worth almost a full win below replacement (-0.9). That’s not a rousing cast of characters, but the core is strong enough that the Rockies should have no trouble augmenting with cheaper veterans taking the leftover at-bats in left and behind the plate. In a perfect world, one of those veterans could also be a backup plan to Dahl in center field (Michael A. Taylor of the Nationals could be a reasonable archetype).

The real scapegoat of the Rockies’ disappointing 2019, and where they should devote most if not all of their offseason attention, is pitching. The bullpen was bad in 2019, producing the second-highest FIP and second-lowest fWAR while commanding a serious chunk of the payroll. The inherent volatility of bullpen arms will allow the Rockies to trot out Davis, Shaw and McGee with at least an outside shot of returning some of their value, while Jairo Diaz, Scott Oberg, James Pazos and Carlos Estevez will do their best not to relinquish their squatters’ rights on the other bullpen spots. As much as the bullpen is in a less-than-ideal situation, the rotation needs the most work after a collective 5.87 ERA/5.31 FIP that ranked dead last in the NL.

It’s certainly unfair to heap an entire season’s worth of disappointment on a single player, but if we were to saddle just one man with the blame, Kyle Freeland would win the vote in a landslide. Jon Gray was last year’s demoted ace, but a redemptive campaign saw him reclaim ace-by-default status thanks to his year-over-year ERA shriveling from 5.12 in 2018 to 3.84 in 2019. Marquez is their third rotation asset, but his ERA rose to 4.76 as he stayed around the plate so often (4.9 BB%) opponents were able to barrel him up at an above-average rate (7.9%). Marquez and Gray will be counted on for mid-rotation production, at minimum, with a ceiling of a number one. The same could be said of Freeland, though with an even lower floor. That’s way too much baked-in variance for the top three of a rotation. If they produce somewhere between the 3.91 ERA they averaged in 2018 and the 5.11 ERA average of 2019, it’ll certainly help, but that alone won’t be enough to close the gap on the Dodgers.

Of the three, Gray is the most likely to be turned into a package of prospects, but the former No. 3 overall pick’s value is tough to pinpoint.  By FIP and exit velo, Gray’s 2018 and 2019 were almost identical campaigns. This season saw a slight dip in strikeout rate, a third consecutive year of a rising walk rate (from 6.5% to 7.0% to 8.8%), and a career-high hard hit percentage of 43.6 % that ranks in the bottom four percent of starters league-wide. On the plus side, he did put the ball on the ground more often and dramatically lowered opposing launch angles. In sum: Gray kept the ball down, but gave up harder contact, which doesn’t profile as significantly predictive for future seasons, even if the results this season make the improvement appear significant.

That said, Gray’s stuff is good enough that if the Rockies were to dangle him, there are sure to be teams out there confident in maximizing his potential. If Bridich and company don’t want to move someone like Story or Dahl, Gray would probably land the biggest return. The Rockies need arms to compete in a National League with most clubs in go-for-it mode, and if the Rox don’t believe in the crew that crashed and burned this season, the trade market might be the only solution.

It’s certainly tough to trust the incumbents. On the whole, the 2019 pitching staff performed much like Gray. Their 48.8% groundball rate was second in the majors. With Story and Arenado on the left side, groundballs should turn into outs more frequently than for your average MLB infield, so that’s a sound strategy. Unfortunately, when they weren’t burning worms, the basically put together a perfect cocktail for a “crooked number.” The Rockies’ 7.85 K/9 rate as a team was 15th in the NL, while their 3.66 BB/9 ranked as the NL’s second-highest figure. Plus, over 20 percent of fly balls that Colorado allowed turned into homers, which was worst in the majors. Not missing bats, giving up plenty of free passes, and yielding fly balls that leave the yard at uncommonly high rates is the recipe for big innings.

Organizationally, the Rockies are in a tough spot, and they’re going to have to get creative if indeed they want to compete. A Story trade would bring the largest injection of talent to the system, but given the organization’s fondness for him and Rodgers looking more like a future second baseman, an extension seems more likely. Still, they’ll need to explore all their options on the trade market.

The Rockies already lost a couple of players from their 2019 collection, with Sam Howard, Pat Valaika, and Tyler Anderson claimed on waivers. Chad Bettis was also outrighted and is likely to enter free agency along with Tim Melville. But the issues facing this team in the offseason run much deeper than the fringes of the roster. The outlook isn’t great after a 91-loss season, but Bridich has indicated a rebuild is not forthcoming. On one hand, that seems shortsighted. On the other, urgency is understandable when you consider 2019 marked the 27th consecutive season since their inception that the Rockies failed to capture a division title.

Rockies Searching For Solutions To Pitching Struggles

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The Rockies pitching staff collapsed in 2019, and it led to a myriad of attempted fixes, per The Athletic’s Nick Groke. So far, however, the Rockies remain at a loss. There is concern about the state of the baseball and how it reacts in Colorado’s altitude, but scouts around baseball also point to a habit of “careless deliveries” among Colorado hurlers as a cause for concern. Bud Black and his team are hard at work trying to diagnose the issue(s), and without payroll flexibility over the winter, identifying internal solutions might be their best chance at improvement in 2020. Still, it’s a dispiriting read for Colorado’s fans, as the Groke writes that the Rockies went so far as to “shut down their top starter, 24-year-old German Márquez, in late August, in part to save him from the bombardment.” They’ll have a clean slate in 2020, but a long road ahead as the Dodgers remain a juggernaut, while the Diamondbacks and Padres are rising contenders. Let’s check in elsewhere around the NL…

Rockies Name Darryl Scott Bullpen Coach

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The Rockies announced a change in the coaching ranks Friday, promoting minor league pitching coordinator Darryl Scott to the role of bullpen coach. He’ll take the spot of now-former bullpen coach Darren Holmes.

The 51-year-old Scott has been with the Rockies organization for over a decade, serving as a pitching coach for four different minor league affiliates in addition to spending the three prior seasons as a pitching coordinator. Scott pitched in one big league season, tossing 20 innings for the 1993 Angels, and spent parts of 11 seasons as a reliever in the minor leagues (from 1990-2000). Double-A pitching coach Steve Merriman is stepping up to take on Scott’s former responsibilities.

Holmes, 53, had spent the previous five seasons as the Rockies’ bullpen coach. Five of his 13 Major League seasons as a pitcher came with the Rox from 1993-97, during which time he pitched to a 4.42 ERA and collected 46 saves as a reliever.

Rockies Outright Chad Bettis, Tim Melville

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The Rockies announced they have outrighted right-handers Chad Bettis and Tim Melville. They join a trio of players- Tyler Anderson, Sam Howard, and Pat Valaika– who were all lost on waivers this afternoon. Bettis has already elected free agency, the team announced, and Melville figures to do the same.

Bettis is the longer-tenured Rockie of the two, having been in the organization since 2010. At times, he was a key member of the starting rotation, particularly in 2016, when he logged 186 innings with a 4.79 ERA that is better than appears at first glance given the hitter-friendly environment which he called home. Unfortunately, Bettis was diagnosed with testicular cancer the following March. He made a heartwarming return to the mound that August and was a cog in the Rockies’ rotation as recently as 2018.

This season, however, was a nightmare in terms of on-field results. While Bettis was mostly healthy, save for a 10-day IL stint for a hip impingement in August, he was ineffective. Working mostly in long relief, Bettis pitched to a 6.08 ERA with a mediocre 14.6% strikeout rate. With a projected arbitration salary of $3.8MM, it is hardly surprising to see the Rockies part ways with the 30-year-old. He’ll surely attract some interest from teams looking for starting and relief depth, although he may have to settle for a minor-league pact and earn his way onto a 40-man roster.

Melville, also 30, started seven games for Colorado this season with underwhelming results. He struggled somewhat with home runs in the PCL launchpad over his 96.1 innings for Triple-A Albuquerque. Like Bettis, he’s capable of working as a swing depth piece.

Hiroshima Carp Sign DJ Johnson

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Oct. 25: The Rockies have formally announced Johnson’s release, and the Hiroshima Carp have correspondingly announced the signing of Johnson to a one-year contract.

Oct. 23: The Rockies have released right-hander DJ Johnson to allow him to pursue an opportunity in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reports (Twitter links). It’s not yet known with which NPB club Johnson will sign.

A native of Beaverton, Oregon, Johnson ground his way through parts of eight minor league seasons before ultimately earning a call to the Colorado pen in 2018. A September cup of coffee in ’18 preceded a longer look in 2019, during which the 6’4″ righty logged a 5.04 ERA (4.45 FIP) across 25 innings of relief for the Rockies. Johnson struggled to prevent runs on the whole, and free passes were something of a bugaboo (6.84 BB/9), but he did notch 24 strikeouts in his 25 innings of work (all while featuring one of the 2019 season’s best beards, it should be noted).

In a minor league career that stretched 313 games in the Rays, Diamondbacks, Twins, Angels, and Rockies organizations, Johnson has compiled a 3.81 ERA with 442 strikeouts in 406 innings of work.

Rockies Likely To Non-Tender Bettis, Anderson

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  • The Rockies are likely to non-tender pitchers Chad Bettis and Tyler Anderson, observes the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders in a broader look at the upcoming offseason. Both Bettis and Anderson were useful back-end starters for Colorado not too long ago, although injuries and/or underperformance made this outcome inevitable for each. Bettis slogged to a 6.08 ERA in 39 appearances (36 in relief) this season. Anderson, meanwhile, was limited to five starts before suffering a season-ending knee injury, and Saunders reiterates that he’s not expected to be fully recovered by next spring. Jettisoning Bettis (projected $3.8MM salary) and Anderson (projected $2.625MM salary) will save payroll-tight Colorado around $6-7MM.

Pitchers Recently Electing Free Agency

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Since the conclusion of the regular season, a number of players have elected free agency. That right accrues to certain players who are outrighted off of a 40-man roster during or after the season — namely, those that have at least three years of MLB service and/or have previously been outrighted. Such players that accepted outright assignments during the season have the right to elect free agency instead at season’s end, provided they aren’t added back to the 40-man in the meantime.

We already rounded up the position players. Now, here are the pitchers that have recently taken to the open market, along with their now-former teams (via the International League and PCL transactions pages):

Marlins Return Rule 5 Pick Julian Fernandez To Rockies

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The Miami Marlins have returned right-handed pitcher Julian Fernandez, who was selected in the Rule 5 Draft, to the Colorado Rockies, according to the Rockies’ official Twitter account. The move leaves 36 players on the Marlins’ 40-man roster.

Fernandez was originally selected by the Giants in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft, but was unable to pitch in the following season after suffering an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. In the 2018-2019 offseason, he was claimed off waivers by the Marlins. After suffering a setback in his recovery from surgery, he was again unable to pitch for the entire year.

Since he hasn’t spent any time on a Major League roster in the two years since he was selected in 2017, he will be returned to the Colorado organization.

Fernandez’s career has certainly followed a curious, if unfortunate, path. He’s now accrued two years of Major League service time despite not having thrown a pitch in the big leagues. And with Fernandez returning to Colorado, the Rockies have stumbled into an interesting arm. At 6’6″, Fernandez is a physical specimen who attracted interest for his ability to touch triple digits with his fastball prior to surgery. He’s still just 23 years old, though he’s now lost two critical years of development and hasn’t thrown a pitch above Class-A ball.

In his most recent season, 2017, Fernandez threw 58 quality innings for the Rockies’ Class-A affiliate, striking out 57 batters and notching a 3.26 ERA. His high-octane fastball led many to believe that he had potential as a high-leverage reliever, though of course that potential had to be put on hold. Still, he’ll be an interesting case to monitor moving forward: when he’s at full health, will he retain his electric fastball velocity? Where will the Rockies assign him in his return to action? It’ll be fun to see if he can carve out a role with his new/old organization, which first signed him when he was 16.

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