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David Price

Dodgers Mull Rotation Options

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Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has yet to name David Price’s replacement in the rotation, but Tony Gonsolin isn’t likely to claim the spot, writes J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. Gonsolin certainly put together enough of an effort in 2019 (2.93 ERA/3.86 FIP across 11 appearances, six starts), but according to Roberts, the issue is that Gonsolin is behind his competitors in terms of building up the strength a starter needs to accumulate heavy usage.

In a vacuum, Ross Stripling would figure to be the top candidate to join Clayton Kershaw, Alex Wood, Julio Urias, and Walker Buehler in the rotation. Despite being temporarily traded to the Angels, Stripling’s been largely productive as a swingman and occasional starter for the Dodgers. While contributing between 74 and 122 innings over the last four seasons, Stripling has never had an ERA or FIP higher than 3.96, coming in his rookie season. In this environment, however, roles will have as much to do with readiness as past performance. Dustin May could certainly earn some consideration for the rotation, as could Dennis Santana. Edwin Uceta could also get a look. May, 22, has the highest upside of the group.

In other news from camp, the Dodgers added six players to their 60-man player pool, writes Hoornstra (via Twitter). Michael Busch, Anthony Garcia, Landon Knack, Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Edubray Ramos and Carson Taylor all join the pool as non-roster invitees.

David Price Opts Out Of 2020 Season

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Dodgers left-hander David Price announced that he will not play during the 2020 season via a post on his Instagram page, as first reported by Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe. Price becomes the highest-profile player to opt out of this year’s campaign, joining the likes of Ian Desmond and Ryan Zimmerman, with others likely yet to come.

The Dodgers acquired Price, 34, in the February blockbuster trade that also sent Mookie Betts to Los Angeles. He was set to embark on his first year in Los Angeles after a stint with the Red Sox that included a memorable postseason run culminating in a World Series title. However, with Price choosing not to play this year, the trade certainly looks a bit bleaker from the Dodgers’ point of view. Whereas the team thought it would get at least a whole year with Betts in the lineup and Price in the rotation, it’s looking increasingly likely that the pair will not play a game together in Los Angeles, with Betts set to reach free agency at season’s end.

By choosing not to play this year, Price will forfeit his prorated 2020 salary, which would have been roughly $11.9MM for a 60-game season. He will remain under contract with the Dodgers for two more years, valued at $64MM total. It’s worth mentioning that, with the Red Sox agreeing to shoulder half of Price’s $32MM salary for this year, Boston will also save nearly $6MM this season.

From a baseball perspective, Price’s absence will certainly be detrimental to the Dodgers’ title aspirations in 2020. With no Price in the rotation, expect to see Ross Stripling or Dustin May bumped into a regular starting role. The Dodgers have enviable depth in their starting pitching core, so they’re uniquely well-positioned to work around decisions like Price’s: Between Stripling, May, and Tony Gonsolin, the Dodgers have a host of young starters who can share the load in the rotation.

In the statement Price posted to social media, he says that he’s “decided it is in the best interest of my heath and my family’s health for me to not play this season.” His concerns are no doubt shared by plenty of players across baseball, with the Angels’ Mike Trout expressing a similar sentiment yesterday. We’ll see just how many players choose to forego the season out of concern over the coronavirus, but it’s almost certain the Price won’t be the last big name to do so.

The Dodgers, for their part, had the following to say regarding Price’s decision:

The Dodgers fully support David’s decision to sit out the 2020 season. We have been in constant contact with David and we understand how much this deliberation weighed on him and his family. We know he’ll be rooting hard for the club every day and look forward to having him back with us in 2021.

Latest News, Notes On Minor League Pay

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The manner in which teams are — or, in some cases, aren’t — continuing to pay their minor league players has drawn increased attention as the end of the month draws near. Major League teams agreed back in March to pay minor league players $400 per week through the end of May, but most minor league players now face ongoing financial uncertainty. The Dodgers have already committed to continue that $400 weekly stipend through the end of June, but veteran left-hander David Price is stepping up to add a helping hand, pledging $1,000 to each non-40-man Dodgers minor leaguer, according to a report from Francys Romero (Twitter link). That includes more than 220 minor leaguers, per MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo. It’s a similar gesture to the one Shin-Shoo Choo made with the Rangers back in April.

Of course, the very fact that veterans such as Choo and Price even feel it necessary to step up to help out minor leaguers speaks to the manner in which minor league players are under-compensated. While some clubs — the Marlins and Padres — are reportedly set to pay out that $400 weekly stipend through the end of the minor league season, the Athletics are cutting off the stipend at month’s end. Others have extended the stipend through June but have not committed further.

Here’s how a few other clubs are handling the matter…

  • The Mets, Rays, Brewers, Cardinals, Giants and Indians are all extending the $400 weekly stipend through the month of June, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (tweet), the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak (tweet), the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (tweet) and Kyle Glaser of Baseball America (tweet). “This money right now, especially for guys who aren’t as well off, this is a huge deal,” Rays minor league catcher Chris Betts tells Topkin. “…I’m beyond excited about it, and I’m honestly just more stoked and proud that the organization I play for took this route more than anything.”
  • The Athletics have, unsurprisingly, drawn a wide array of harsh criticism for their wide-ranging furlough and the full cutoff of minor league payment, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. Slusser notes that owner John Fisher repeatedly used the word “family” in his letter to fans explaining the cutbacks, but many impacted by the cuts don’t feel the effects of that word. “It’s very hard to preach family and then not act like it when times are difficult,” Class-A pitcher Aiden McIntyre tells Slusser. Triple-A outfielder Jason Krizan added: “…[I]t hurts to see the Marlins continue to pay their players when they made the least in baseball last year,” though he noted he’d rather remain an Athletic and receive benefits than otherwise. Other players, past and present, voiced similar criticisms to Slusser, as did a big league agent and an executive with another club. Sports Illustrated’s Stephanie Apstein writes that termination of the stipend saves the Athletics an approximate $1.3MM.

The Blockbuster That Brought The Tigers Their Most Valuable Trade Chip

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The Blue Jays were the talk of the 2015 trade deadline. A few days after bringing in star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki from the Rockies, the Jays struck for the top rental starting pitcher on the market: Tigers’ left-hander David Price. Amidst a seven-year run of pristine durability and general excellence, 2015 was perhaps Price’s peak season. At the time of the deal, he was sitting on a 2.53 ERA over 146 innings.

It was a fascinating swap for a number of reasons. The 52-51 Jays were only 1.5 games above the Tigers in the standings, making the organizations’ decisions to take diverging approaches at the deadline particularly interesting. At the time, Fangraphs gave the talented, but to that point underperforming, Toronto club a 48.9% shot of reaching the postseason, while the Tigers’ playoff odds sat at a lowly 9.7%. In that context, it makes sense then-Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous considered the time right to push his chips in; it’s equally sensible then-Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski pivoted his organization toward a rebuild.

Just as notable was the steep acquisition cost. The Jays sent the Tigers a trio of left-handed pitching prospects, led by Daniel Norris, who had entered that season as Baseball America’s #18 overall prospect. He’d had some strike-throwing issues in the minors, but Norris looked the part of a potential power mid-rotation starter.

Unfortunately, Norris has never really made good on that immense promise. In four-plus seasons in Detroit, the former second-rounder has a cumulative 4.56 ERA/4.41 FIP in 396.1 innings. His once-dominant stuff has waxed and waned in that time. Norris quietly had a strong second half in 2019, particularly after being limited to three innings per start in August. Perhaps there’s hope yet for the 27-year-old to find his niche.

Even if Norris hasn’t turned out the way Detroit fans may have envisioned, the Tigers have gotten plenty of long-term value from the Price deal. Matthew Boyd was arguably viewed as the third piece at the time, behind Norris and Jairo Labourt. (Labourt, then a well-regarded low minors starter, never panned out, even after moving to the bullpen). Boyd had already reached the majors but was viewed as a back-of-the-rotation type. Suffice it to say most didn’t envision him emerging as one of the game’s premier strikeout artists, but that’s exactly what he did in 2019. Among pitchers with at least 100 innings, Boyd ranked thirteenth in strikeout rate (30.2%) while maintaining his long-lauded control (6.2% walk rate).

Boyd’s 4.56 ERA didn’t match up with those strong peripherals, mostly due to an abundance of home runs. Indeed, he’s a fly ball pitcher who may always serve up a few too many longballs to be a top-of-the-rotation arm. As much as any pitcher in baseball, Boyd could stand to benefit if the ball is less lively than it has been in recent seasons. More than ever, though, teams covet pitchers with swing-and-miss stuff. Between his four-seamer and slider, Boyd has a pair of bat-missing weapons.

With the Tigers yet to emerge from the rebuild the Price trade symbolically kicked off, Boyd himself could be on the move in the near future. Detroit didn’t actively look to trade him last offseason, but the club also seems unlikely to contend by 2022, his final season of team control. He’ll no doubt pique contending teams’ interest and would bring back a much stronger return than his ERA might otherwise suggest.

As for the Jays, their story has been told many times, although their fans may not mind hearing it once more. They stormed back in the second half, not only securing a playoff berth but erasing a seven-game deficit to win the AL East. Toronto knocked off the Rangers in the ALDS that year in one of the more memorable series in recent history. Their magical second-half run came to an end in the ALCS at the hands of the eventual World Series champion Royals. Price was instrumental to that success, tossing 74.1 innings of 2.30 ERA ball in the season’s final two months. He parlayed his longtime excellence into a seven year, $217MM deal with the Red Sox that offseason.

All told, the trade looks like a win for both sides. The Blue Jays got an elite two months from an ace to help propel them to a division title. The Tigers have gotten plenty of valuable innings over the longer term. Indeed, they got their high strikeout, mid-rotation southpaw out of the deal, even if it wasn’t the player anyone expected to it be.

Trading An Ace In 2014 Is Still Paying Dividends For The Rays

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When the Rays traded David Price to the Tigers in a three-team deal back in 2014, the deal was met with a generally negative reaction for the Tampa Bay organization. The Rays weren’t far removed from trading James Shields and Wade Davis in a deal that netted Wil Myers (at the time a top 10 prospect in all of baseball), Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery. Expectations for a return on a Price trade were high in the first place, but landing such a stout package for Shields and Davis was a stunner that might have further bolstered the perception of what Price “should” command.

David Price | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

By the time the trade deadline rolled around in July 2014, the Rays were two games below .500 and eight games out of first place. Price was already earning $14MM and due another raise in what would be his final trip through arbitration the following winter. And Price, true to form at the time, had been outstanding: he’d started 23 games with the Rays and racked up 170 2/3 innings with a 3.11 ERA, 10.0 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9. The Rays’ front office was faced with the choice of moving a year and a half of Price at the deadline or hanging on for a faint postseason hope and likely dealing just one year of him that winter. Then-GM Andrew Friedman surely knew that ownership wouldn’t be keen on committing a nearly $20MM salary to Price in 2015.

Ultimately, Price landed in Detroit in a deal that sent center fielder Austin Jackson from the Tigers to the Mariners as well. The Rays came away from the swap hoping that with the two headliners on their end of the deal, they’d acquired a controllable mid-rotation lefty (Drew Smyly) and a long-term piece in the middle infield (Nick Franklin). Onlookers were skeptical.

“I’m floored that this is all the Rays got for David Price — as are some of the execs I’ve talked to so far — and I can’t imagine that the return this winter would have been any worse,” Keith Law wrote for ESPN when reviewing the trade at the time. While both Smyly and Franklin had the chance to be average regulars, Franklin in particular came with some downside. Franklin didn’t even draw a mention in Dave Cameron’s rundown of the swap at FanGraphs, which praised the Rays for grabbing a ready-made mid-rotation piece in Smyly but painted the move as a win for Detroit. Most reactions to the deal were similar. Cameron noted that the 18-year-old shortstop prospect the Tigers threw in “might have some future value,” and Law called him a “lottery ticket in the scope of the deal.”

Any concerns regarding Franklin’s future proved to have merit. The former No. 27 overall draft pick was touted as a top prospect for years, but he never panned out with the Mariners, the Rays, the Brewers or the Angels. Tampa gave him a decent leash — understandably so, given the nature of his acquisition — but after two and a half years in the organization, Franklin had compiled a lowly .227/.284/.388 slash in the big leagues. His production in Triple-A wasn’t much better outside of a solid run of 57 games in 2015. He was designated for assignment in 2015 and lost on waivers to the Brewers for no return.

Smyly’s time with the Rays proved more fruitful. He tossed 289 2/3 innings of 3.95 ERA ball and logged some encouraging strikeout numbers. At times, Smyly looked like a potential breakout candidate — I admit to thinking as much of him… just before the Rays traded him to Seattle in the 2016-17 offseason. Smyly indeed went on to star for Team USA in the 2017 World Baseball Classic, but he had Tommy John surgery before that season even began and ultimately missed two seasons due to that injury.

Suddenly, the Rays were left with the lottery ticket shortstop they’d picked up for Price and the two players they’d received from the Mariners for Smyly — that’d be the trio of Willy Adames, Ryan Yarbrough and Mallex Smith (whom they later traded back to Seattle for Mike Zunino and now-23-year-old lefty Michael Plassmeyer, who is still in the system).

Willy Adames | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Adames, now 24, might not be an All-Star talent at shortstop, but some would argue that he still has that potential. He went from a lottery ticket to peaking at the No. 10 overall prospect in the game on Baseball America’s 2017 rankings, and he’s settled in as the Rays’ primary option at short. In 907 plate appearances to date, Adames has hit .263/.328/.414 with 30 home runs (plus a huge ALDS showing in 2019). He played quality defense in 2019 (12 Defensive Runs Saved, 4 Outs Above Average, 2.5 UZR/150) and has provided some value on the bases. The Rays are dreaming of the day when wunderkind Wander Franco overtakes him, but Adames should have value either at a different infield position or as a trade chip when that time comes. He’s controlled through the 2024 season and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2021 campaign.

The 28-year-old Yarbrough has thrown a near-identical number of innings with the Rays (289) to Smyly’s 289 2/3, and his 4.03 ERA pretty closely mirrors Smyly’s work. But Yarbrough has posted that number at a more hitter-friendly time in the game — his 106 ERA+ and 92 FIP- both top Smyly’s 100 ERA+ and 103 FIP- with Tampa Bay — and has more club control remaining than Smyly did at that point. Last year’s 3.55 FIP, 7.4 K/9, 1.3 BB/9 and 43.8 percent grounder rate seem to suggest that Yarbrough is capable of holding down a spot in the rotation for the next few years.

Ryan Yarbrough | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Rays were reportedly set to move away from relying so heavily on openers, deploying a more traditional staff of Charlie Morton, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos and Yarbrough. Like Adames, Yarbrough is controllable through the 2024 season.

Nearly six years after trading the best pitcher in franchise history for what the club hoped would be a mid-rotation lefty and a potential shortstop who might move to another position, the Rays have… a pretty solid 28-year-old lefty and a quality young shortstop who may eventually move to another spot when their top prospect emerges in the Majors.

They took a roundabout path to this point, and the Rays should have done better in their return for Price in the first place. Price was a capital-A Ace with more than a year of team control remaining and was in the midst of a terrific year on the mound. But while the deal looked like a bust early on, the Rays are still left with some lingering pieces of value that could theoretically help carry the club past the 10-year anniversary of the day they moved Price — if they’re not traded before then.

Red Sox Notes: Dalbec, Perez

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The identity of the Boston Red Sox is unclear now that Mookie Betts and David Price play for a different organization. The trickle down effect of losing a bat like Betts from a lineup will certainly affect the other Boston position players, but they still have a talented group of players on hand, starting with corner outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Alex Verdugo. If that sweet-swinging pair can take their games to the next level, the Red Sox should once again roster an above-average offense in 2020. Believe it or not, the Red Sox were fourth in the majors in runs scored last season, so even without Betts, they could surprise some people. Let’s check in on some camp battles worth watching in Red Sox territory…

  • Bobby Dalbec won’t be on the opening day roster, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Dalbec turns 25 this June, so it’s entirely likely he’ll be ready for major league action at some point this season. With Rafael Devers and Michael Chavis already on the roster, Dalbec is blocked at his natural position of third base. He has taken some reps at first base the last couple of seasons, which could pave the way for a 2020 debut. Mitch Moreland has his foot on the bag for now, with Chavis potentially sliding over from second against tough lefties. Even so, with the Red Sox holding a club option for Moreland in 2021 and a long history of just adequate offensive production, Moreland is hardly a monolith at first. With the expectation of making the opening day roster apparently dashed, Dalbec can focus in on the larger task at hand – putting himself in a position to usurp a roster spot at some point during the 2020 season. 
  • Martin Perez was courted this offseason by both the Rays and Red Sox, ultimately signing with the Red Sox on a one-year, $6MM deal just before Christmas. Perez, a client of OL Baseball Group LLC, felt strongly about joining the Red Sox, even going so far as to tell his agent that even if the Rays offered more money, he preferred signing in Boston, per The Athletic’s Chad Jennings. Perez’s most recent body of work hardly suggest he’s worthy of a bidding war – bidding skirmish, say – but Jennings provides an insightful quote from Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom, who says of Perez, “Basically, we felt two things. One, the stuff and the underlying way in which he pitched deserved better results than he got. And two, that there were further tweaks we could help him make to his repertoire to make him even more effective.” 

Red Sox Ownership Downplays Role Of Luxury Tax In Mookie Betts Trade

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Apparently not content to let Jim Crane draw all the headlines for ownership comments worthy of skepticism, Red Sox principal owner John Henry, chairman Tom Werner and president/CEO Sam Kennedy on Monday all denied that the trade of Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers was driven by a desire to dip south of the luxury tax barrier.

In a lengthy prepared statement released on Twitter, Henry appealed directly to Red Sox fans, speaking of the “extraordinary challenges” with which the team was faced this winter and praising the work of chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, general manager Brian O’Halloran and the rest of the team’s baseball operations department.

Henry attempted to connect to the fan base by reminding that everyone in the ownership group was first a fan, thus making them empathetic toward the pain and frustration fans have voiced in the days since the trade. “I grew up a fan of the St. Louis Cardinals,” said Henry. “My favorite player was Stan Musial. My heart would have been broken if Stan the Man had ever been traded — for any reason.”

Sticking with the Musial thread, Henry went on to lament the unfair system that prevented Musial and other players from generations past from being paid at their market rate and present the decision to part with Betts as the type of choice all clubs are forced to make “in this economic system.” To quote Henry at greater length:

“We were faced with a difficult choice. You can talk about dollars. You can talk about metrics and value. But in the end, even though we are consistently among the highest-spending clubs in baseball — with this year being no exception — we have to make hard judgments about competing for the future as well as the present. … In today’s game there is a cost to losing a great player to free agency — one that cannot nearly be made up by the draft pick given. We’ve seen other examples of this recently. … We felt we could not sit on our hands and lose [Betts] next offseason without getting value in return to help us on our path forward. We carefully considered the alternative over the last year and made a decision when this opportunity presented itself to acquire substantial, young talent for the years ahead.”

Werner suggested that the team had other ways to shed salary if that had been the main goal, noting that they could “hypothetically” have traded Price without moving Betts as well (Twitter link via WEEI’s John Tomase). Kennedy at least appeared to acknowledge that the financial element of the trade played a role, noting that the trade wasn’t “exclusively” about resetting the team’s penalty level (Twitter link, with video, via NBC Sports Boston):

“There are clearly certain advantages by resetting and getting under [the luxury tax], but we’ve tried to be clear that this was not exclusively about the CBT and getting under that CBT threshold. There would’ve been other ways to have done that. You don’t trade Mookie Betts to get under the CBT. We traded Mookie Betts and David Price and got back significant value in return.”

Of course, all of this comes fewer than five months after Henry said unequivocally that the Red Sox “need to be under” the $208MM luxury tax threshold for the upcoming 2020 season (link via the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier). “We’ve known for some time now we needed to reset [the penalties by staying under the threshold], as other clubs have done,” Henry said as recently Sept. 27.

Months later, Henry tried to walk that statement back, emphasizing that the team was more focused on “competitiveness” than resetting its luxury penalty in 2020. Red Sox brass will surely argue that the team is indeed better-poised to compete over the next half decade with Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong now in the organization, but there’s no doubt that the Boston club is a demonstrably worse team in 2020 without Betts in right field and without Price in the rotation. Perhaps the Red Sox could chase a Wild Card spot if things break right, but they look to be squarely behind the Yankees and Rays, at the very least, and the competition for the Wild Card spots in the AL will be steeper after active offseasons from the White Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers and Angels.

It seems particularly important to point out that Red Sox brass has sought to paint this as an either-or scenario: either trade Betts (and, ahem, $48MM of the $96MM owed to Price) now or risk losing Betts as a free agent this winter. That seems to ignore the possibility of taking aim at a rebound effort in 2020 with Betts and Price in the mix, then trading Betts at the deadline if the division looks out of hand. The return, of course, would be diminished, but the Sox would surely have been able to extract some long-term pieces while endeavoring for a competitive 2020 season.

It would be inaccurate to call the Betts/Price trade a pure salary dump. Henry, Werner, Kennedy and other Red Sox officials have a legitimate point when highlighting the long-term value they received in dealing away that pair of highly paid stars. But it also feels disingenuous not to acknowledge that dropping below the CBT threshold was a key — perhaps even the key — in making this deal. After all, Boston has previously let key players walk as free agents for minimal or no compensation — Craig Kimbrel and Jacoby Ellsbury come to mind — and they traded Jon Lester midseason in 2014 after spring extension talks didn’t come to fruition.

As for where they stand in the 2020 season, Henry didn’t want to concede that the Sox might be taking a step back, instead rhetorically asking reporters (Twitter link via the Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato: “Don’t you think this would be a record payroll for a bridge year?” That’s not exactly a declaration that the team is all-in on winning in 2020, but it’s also less than an acknowledgment that this diminished version of the Red Sox is clearly something less than a division contender.

Dodgers To Acquire Betts, Price In Three-Team Trade; Twins To Acquire Maeda

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The Mookie Betts saga has reached its conclusion, and the result is a stunning three-team blockbuster that’ll massively alter the fortunes of all three clubs. The Dodgers are reportedly set to acquire Betts, David Price and significant cash considerations in a deal that will sent young outfielder Alex Verdugo to Boston and right-hander Kenta Maeda to the Twins. Minnesota, meanwhile, will send flamethrowing young righty Brusdar Graterol to the Red Sox to complete the swap.

In making this move, Boston bids adieu to one of its most popular and productive players of the current generation. Betts, the 2018 AL MVP and a career .301/.374/.519 hitter, has cemented himself as one of baseball’s truly elite talents. However, he has also candidly stated time and time again that he intends to test the open market as a free agent.

That lack of interest in an extension left the recently restructured Red Sox front office to weigh trading him for controllable talent now versus simply netting a draft pick in the event that he rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere next winter. The prospect of losing him for that level of minimal return, coupled with ownership’s clear goal of dipping south of the $208MM luxury tax barrier, ultimately led rookie chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom to orchestrate tonight’s mega-deal.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, will land perhaps the greatest consolation prize in history. After missing out on top target Gerrit Cole earlier this winter, they’ve now acquired one of the game’s best all-around players, Betts, in addition to a high-profile starter who can still contribute to their rotation — even if his halcyon days are in the past.

Betts, still only 27, now joins an outfield that’ll feature Cody Bellinger and A.J. Pollock, with the versatile Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez playing complementary roles as well. While Betts didn’t quite replicate his 2018 MVP production in 2019, his .295/.391/.524 slash was still elite by measure of both wRC+ and OPS+ (both 135). He’s now been at least 35 percent better than an average hitter in three of the past four seasons by those same measures.

The bat alone would make Betts a coveted player, but he’s also among baseball’s best baserunners and an all-world defender in the outfield. Betts has won a Gold Glove in each of the past four seasons, and his 98 Defensive Runs Saved in that time lead all Major League players, regardless of position, by a whopping 13 runs. His aversion to signing a long-term deal means he has to be viewed as a pure rental player, but if you’re going to rent any player on the planet, renting one whose 30.7 fWAR over the past four seasons trails only Mike Trout for the MLB lead is certainly a good way to go. Betts will earn a $27MM salary after avoiding arbitration for the final time this winter — a record salary for an arb-eligible player.

At 34 years old, Price probably won’t be winning any more Cy Young Awards in his career, but this past season’s 4.28 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.26 HR/9 and 41 percent grounder rate were all quite sound. That ERA undersells the season that Price had, too; he was plagued by a career-worst .336 average on balls in play, and fielding-independent metrics were more bullish on his efforts (3.62 FIP, 3.73 xFIP, 3.85 SIERA).

David Price | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

In fact, Price carried a terrific 3.16 ERA and 3.00 FIP through his first 17 starts and 88 1/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2019. Things began to go south in July as he tried to pitch through a cyst in his left wrist, and he eventually went on the injured list for more than a month while dealing with the issue. He returned in early September but made only one appearance before being shut down and undergoing surgery to alleviate the issue. Price is still owed $96MM under the then-record $217MM contract he signed prior to the 2016 season, but the Red Sox will pay a substantial portion of that sum to lessen the sting for the Dodgers.

Acquiring Betts and Price will cost Los Angeles a hefty five years of control over Verdugo and four more years of the talented Maeda, and there’s another major ripple effect, as the Dodgers have reportedly struck a separate trade sending outfielder Joc Pederson to the Angels in exchange for young infielder Luis Rengifo. Between the cash the Red Sox are sending to cover some of Price’s contract, the subtraction of Maeda and now the subtraction of Pederson’s final arbitration salary, it seems likely that the Dodgers will have managed to stay beneath the luxury tax threshold.

Not to be lost in the shuffle, the Twins are adding a quality arm to a rotation that looked to be in need of augmentation. In Maeda, they land an accomplished 31-year-old starter (32 in April) who prefers to work out of the rotation but was frequently moved to the bullpen for short stints — perhaps in part due to the massive incentives package in his eight-year contract.

Kenta Maeda | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Whether the Dodgers deliberately manipulated Maeda’s rotation work to suppress his earnings can’t be known, but his deal contains only a $3MM annual base with a whopping $10MM in annual bonuses based on games started and innings pitched. With the Twins, he’ll all but certainly be viewed as a rotation piece and be given every opportunity to max out those additional payments. Maeda is signed through the 2023 season, and his contract calls for a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade, so he can tack that onto his career earnings.

In 589 career innings, Maeda has a 3.87 ERA with 9.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.18 HR/9 and a 40.9 percent ground-ball rate. That he’s more of a fly-ball pitcher bodes well for his fortunes in Minnesota, as the Twins have significant questions about their middle-infield defense but a high-quality group of outfield defenders led by Byron Buxton and Max Kepler. Maeda has racked up 32 2/3 career postseason innings as well, pitching to a 3.31 ERA in that time. He might not be the ace Twins fans hoped to net early this winter, but he’ll bump one of two rookies — southpaw Devin Smeltzer or right-hander Randy Dobnak — from the rotation and provide a clear boost.

In 2020, Maeda will step into a rotation that’ll be fronted by Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi. The Twins also re-signed Michael Pineda to a two-year contract earlier this winter, but he’ll be out through mid-May as he serves a reduced 60-game suspension for taking a banned substance. Veteran Homer Bailey will also be a part of the Twins’ starting staff after signing a one-year pact on the heels of a healthy season, and Maeda will eventually be reunited with former Dodgers teammate Rich Hill. The veteran southpaw inked a one-year deal this winter but will be out until the summer as he recovers from primary revision surgery.

Looking beyond the 2020 campaign, Maeda is all the more important for the Twins. Odorizzi, Bailey and Hill are all slated to become free agents next winter, so prior to this trade, Berrios and Pineda were the only proven starters Minnesota controlled beyond the upcoming campaign. Maeda gives them a solid mid-rotation presence to help anchor the staff and does so at an affordable rate that’ll allow the Twins to continue to be aggressive in free agency next year if they choose to double down on this winter’s surprising Josh Donaldson splash.

As for the Red Sox, today is presumably one of the most difficult days in franchise history for a number of the team’s longest-tenured executives. Luxury tax aside, Sox ownership recognizes that trading Betts will be a wildly unpopular move. John Henry and Co. surely didn’t think they’d be in this position just 16 months ago when celebrating a World Series victory, but injuries and some ill-fated expenditures brought about a mediocre 2019 season and a slew of tough choices. It’s easy to argue that a team with such considerable financial resources at its disposal should simply have kept Betts and paid up for him, but even their detractors can agree that there’s likely little joy in trading away a generational player.

The 2020 Red Sox are unquestionably worse having made this move, but they were a long shot to topple the Yankees anyhow and now acquire a pair of potential building blocks. The 23-year-old Verdugo is a longtime top prospect who enjoyed a strong 2019 season and will step right into the void left by Betts. He’s fresh off a .294/.342/.475 slash with a dozen home runs, 22 doubles and two triples in 377 plate appearances with Los Angeles and should see his playing time soar to full-time levels in 2020 and beyond.

Alex Verdugo | Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Verdugo has excellent bat-to-ball skills and rarely strikes out (13.7 percent in his career). And while he’s no Betts with the glove — no one is — he racked up 13 DRS in 2019 and is capable of handling all three outfield positions. He’s the Red Sox’ right fielder of the future, and unlike many young players who are acquired for stars, that future will start right away; Verdugo should be in the Opening Day lineup and give Sox fans an immediate look at his potential.

The 21-year-old Graterol is less certain to open the year with the Sox, but he’s an electric and exciting talent — albeit one with more volatility than Verdugo. Injuries have plagued Graterol throughout his minor league career — he’s already undergone Tommy John surgery and has battled shoulder troubles, too — but pitchers with his type of velocity and upside are rare. The massive 6’1″, 255-pounder boasts a fastball that sits just under 100 mph and can reach as high as 103 mph, and he’s utterly dominated in the minors when healthy.

Graterol owns a career 2.48 ERA with 9.7 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 in 214 minor league frames, and he skyrocketed across multiple levels to make his MLB debut in 2019. There’s some concern that his future is in the bullpen, but the Red Sox will likely give him every opportunity to prove that he can be a difference-maker in their rotation.

Graterol was a consensus Top 100 prospect a year ago and remains on those oft-cited rankings. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs has already moved Graterol to the top of Boston’s prospect rankings, noting the big righty’s potential to either function as a high-end starter or, if he moves to the ’pen, an elite reliever.

Although there are myriad high-profile players whose name will still be bandied about the trade market, there’s a chance that the Betts/Price/Maeda blockbuster will serve as the finishing touch on what has been a riveting offseason — on that hearkened back to the pre-labor-tension days that seem far longer ago than just two or three years. And in some respects, it’s merely an interesting prelude to a 2020-21 offseason that will quite likely see Betts set out into the free-agent market in search of the largest contract in MLB history. Trades of this magnitude are of the utmost rarity — and virtually unprecedented this time of year — and there’s a good chance that come October we’ll look back at Feb. 4 as a day that majorly impacted multiple division races and postseason outcomes.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported (via Twitter) that a deal was in place after MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported that talks had become “advanced.” Speier reported the inclusion of a third team (Twitter link). SKOR North Radio’s Darren Wolfson first suggested the Twins’ potential involvement (Twitter link), and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted that the Twins were indeed the third team. Rosenthal reported the basic framework of the deal, tweeting that Betts and Price would head to L.A., Maeda would go to Minnesota and that Verdugo and Graterol were headed to Boston.

Red Sox, Dodgers In “Advanced” Talks On Mookie Betts

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8:05pm: A third team could be involved in talks, tweets Rosenthal, though the basic framework of the deal being discussed still includes Price and Betts going to L.A. and Verdugo going to Boston.

8:03pm: The current proposal would send both Betts and Price to Los Angeles, tweets Speier. The two sides are reviewing medicals on all of the potentially involved players. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that young outfielder Alex Verdugo would be the centerpiece going to Boston, as has been previously rumored.

7:58pm: Trade talks centering around Red Sox star right fielder Mookie Betts have once again heated up, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network, who calls the Dodgers the favorite to land him. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier adds that Boston and Los Angeles are in “advanced” talks and that it’s possible a deal will come together tonight. The Padres aren’t completely out of the mix just yet, per Heyman.

The Betts trade saga has dominated headlines for the past week, with the Red Sox soliciting offers on the 2018 AL MVP from both the Dodgers and Padres. Both teams have obvious motivations to add Betts to the fold, but the Dodgers are already a clear postseason contender with deeper pockets and a generally strong mix of MLB-ready talent and high-end prospects. Previous reports have indicated that the Red Sox are hoping to attach part of David Price’s contract in a deal with the Dodgers, though it’s not clear whether the current permutations of talks include the former Cy Young winner, who is owed $96MM over the next three years.

Betts, 27, agreed to a record-setting $27MM salary in his final trip through the arbitration process earlier this winter. He’s been outspoken and candid about his desire to test free agency rather than sign an extension, so he has to be viewed purely as a one-year rental for any club that acquires him. By trading him, the Red Sox would drop their projected luxury tax commitments to about $212MM — just $4MM over the $208MM threshold. If they’re successfully able to unload a portion of Price’s deal, new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom will have successfully dipped below the luxury tax line. That’s been a clear goal for Boston ownership all winter, despite chairman John Henry’s dubious claims that the team is more focused on competitiveness than on resetting their luxury penalty level.

Red Sox Still Pondering Mookie Betts Trade Scenarios

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The waiting game continues, despite expectations to the contrary. As of this morning, with just one week until pitchers and catchers report, Mookie Betts remains a member of the Red Sox.

All day yesterday it seemed a trade could drop at any moment. Reports the evening prior had indicated as much. Padres beat writer Kevin Acee tweeted midday that “multiple people close to situation believe resolution on Mookie Betts trade is imminent.”

It seems the Friars expected to find out whether they or the division-overlord Dodgers would land a new superstar. They’re still waiting right along with the rest of us.

The Red Sox are still engaged with both west coast organizations, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. And the Boston club is still not even settled on particular trade scenarios with each prospective trade partner. Speier says that concepts both including and excluding high-priced lefty David Price remain on the table.

So, is today the day? Perhaps. But new Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems determined to take his time making his first major call. While it has appeared that talks were building to a crescendo, Speier explains that the club still isn’t feeling timing or logistical pressure.

Presumably, there’s a point in the near future at which the constraints of the calendar will force a move (or lack thereof). The Padres and Dodgers need to make alternative plans if they can’t nab Betts. And the Boston club no doubt prefers not to open camp with such massive uncertainty hanging over the organization. Even if it can’t be said that a resolution is now truly imminent, it seems quite likely to come within the week.

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