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Red Sox Notes: Dalbec, Perez

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The identity of the Boston Red Sox is unclear now that Mookie Betts and David Price play for a different organization. The trickle down effect of losing a bat like Betts from a lineup will certainly affect the other Boston position players, but they still have a talented group of players on hand, starting with corner outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Alex Verdugo. If that sweet-swinging pair can take their games to the next level, the Red Sox should once again roster an above-average offense in 2020. Believe it or not, the Red Sox were fourth in the majors in runs scored last season, so even without Betts, they could surprise some people. Let’s check in on some camp battles worth watching in Red Sox territory…

  • Bobby Dalbec won’t be on the opening day roster, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Dalbec turns 25 this June, so it’s entirely likely he’ll be ready for major league action at some point this season. With Rafael Devers and Michael Chavis already on the roster, Dalbec is blocked at his natural position of third base. He has taken some reps at first base the last couple of seasons, which could pave the way for a 2020 debut. Mitch Moreland has his foot on the bag for now, with Chavis potentially sliding over from second against tough lefties. Even so, with the Red Sox holding a club option for Moreland in 2021 and a long history of just adequate offensive production, Moreland is hardly a monolith at first. With the expectation of making the opening day roster apparently dashed, Dalbec can focus in on the larger task at hand – putting himself in a position to usurp a roster spot at some point during the 2020 season. 
  • Martin Perez was courted this offseason by both the Rays and Red Sox, ultimately signing with the Red Sox on a one-year, $6MM deal just before Christmas. Perez, a client of OL Baseball Group LLC, felt strongly about joining the Red Sox, even going so far as to tell his agent that even if the Rays offered more money, he preferred signing in Boston, per The Athletic’s Chad Jennings. Perez’s most recent body of work hardly suggest he’s worthy of a bidding war – bidding skirmish, say – but Jennings provides an insightful quote from Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom, who says of Perez, “Basically, we felt two things. One, the stuff and the underlying way in which he pitched deserved better results than he got. And two, that there were further tweaks we could help him make to his repertoire to make him even more effective.” 

Red Sox Ownership Downplays Role Of Luxury Tax In Mookie Betts Trade

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Apparently not content to let Jim Crane draw all the headlines for ownership comments worthy of skepticism, Red Sox principal owner John Henry, chairman Tom Werner and president/CEO Sam Kennedy on Monday all denied that the trade of Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers was driven by a desire to dip south of the luxury tax barrier.

In a lengthy prepared statement released on Twitter, Henry appealed directly to Red Sox fans, speaking of the “extraordinary challenges” with which the team was faced this winter and praising the work of chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, general manager Brian O’Halloran and the rest of the team’s baseball operations department.

Henry attempted to connect to the fan base by reminding that everyone in the ownership group was first a fan, thus making them empathetic toward the pain and frustration fans have voiced in the days since the trade. “I grew up a fan of the St. Louis Cardinals,” said Henry. “My favorite player was Stan Musial. My heart would have been broken if Stan the Man had ever been traded — for any reason.”

Sticking with the Musial thread, Henry went on to lament the unfair system that prevented Musial and other players from generations past from being paid at their market rate and present the decision to part with Betts as the type of choice all clubs are forced to make “in this economic system.” To quote Henry at greater length:

“We were faced with a difficult choice. You can talk about dollars. You can talk about metrics and value. But in the end, even though we are consistently among the highest-spending clubs in baseball — with this year being no exception — we have to make hard judgments about competing for the future as well as the present. … In today’s game there is a cost to losing a great player to free agency — one that cannot nearly be made up by the draft pick given. We’ve seen other examples of this recently. … We felt we could not sit on our hands and lose [Betts] next offseason without getting value in return to help us on our path forward. We carefully considered the alternative over the last year and made a decision when this opportunity presented itself to acquire substantial, young talent for the years ahead.”

Werner suggested that the team had other ways to shed salary if that had been the main goal, noting that they could “hypothetically” have traded Price without moving Betts as well (Twitter link via WEEI’s John Tomase). Kennedy at least appeared to acknowledge that the financial element of the trade played a role, noting that the trade wasn’t “exclusively” about resetting the team’s penalty level (Twitter link, with video, via NBC Sports Boston):

“There are clearly certain advantages by resetting and getting under [the luxury tax], but we’ve tried to be clear that this was not exclusively about the CBT and getting under that CBT threshold. There would’ve been other ways to have done that. You don’t trade Mookie Betts to get under the CBT. We traded Mookie Betts and David Price and got back significant value in return.”

Of course, all of this comes fewer than five months after Henry said unequivocally that the Red Sox “need to be under” the $208MM luxury tax threshold for the upcoming 2020 season (link via the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier). “We’ve known for some time now we needed to reset [the penalties by staying under the threshold], as other clubs have done,” Henry said as recently Sept. 27.

Months later, Henry tried to walk that statement back, emphasizing that the team was more focused on “competitiveness” than resetting its luxury penalty in 2020. Red Sox brass will surely argue that the team is indeed better-poised to compete over the next half decade with Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong now in the organization, but there’s no doubt that the Boston club is a demonstrably worse team in 2020 without Betts in right field and without Price in the rotation. Perhaps the Red Sox could chase a Wild Card spot if things break right, but they look to be squarely behind the Yankees and Rays, at the very least, and the competition for the Wild Card spots in the AL will be steeper after active offseasons from the White Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers and Angels.

It seems particularly important to point out that Red Sox brass has sought to paint this as an either-or scenario: either trade Betts (and, ahem, $48MM of the $96MM owed to Price) now or risk losing Betts as a free agent this winter. That seems to ignore the possibility of taking aim at a rebound effort in 2020 with Betts and Price in the mix, then trading Betts at the deadline if the division looks out of hand. The return, of course, would be diminished, but the Sox would surely have been able to extract some long-term pieces while endeavoring for a competitive 2020 season.

It would be inaccurate to call the Betts/Price trade a pure salary dump. Henry, Werner, Kennedy and other Red Sox officials have a legitimate point when highlighting the long-term value they received in dealing away that pair of highly paid stars. But it also feels disingenuous not to acknowledge that dropping below the CBT threshold was a key — perhaps even the key — in making this deal. After all, Boston has previously let key players walk as free agents for minimal or no compensation — Craig Kimbrel and Jacoby Ellsbury come to mind — and they traded Jon Lester midseason in 2014 after spring extension talks didn’t come to fruition.

As for where they stand in the 2020 season, Henry didn’t want to concede that the Sox might be taking a step back, instead rhetorically asking reporters (Twitter link via the Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato: “Don’t you think this would be a record payroll for a bridge year?” That’s not exactly a declaration that the team is all-in on winning in 2020, but it’s also less than an acknowledgment that this diminished version of the Red Sox is clearly something less than a division contender.

Dodgers To Acquire Betts, Price In Three-Team Trade; Twins To Acquire Maeda

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The Mookie Betts saga has reached its conclusion, and the result is a stunning three-team blockbuster that’ll massively alter the fortunes of all three clubs. The Dodgers are reportedly set to acquire Betts, David Price and significant cash considerations in a deal that will sent young outfielder Alex Verdugo to Boston and right-hander Kenta Maeda to the Twins. Minnesota, meanwhile, will send flamethrowing young righty Brusdar Graterol to the Red Sox to complete the swap.

In making this move, Boston bids adieu to one of its most popular and productive players of the current generation. Betts, the 2018 AL MVP and a career .301/.374/.519 hitter, has cemented himself as one of baseball’s truly elite talents. However, he has also candidly stated time and time again that he intends to test the open market as a free agent.

That lack of interest in an extension left the recently restructured Red Sox front office to weigh trading him for controllable talent now versus simply netting a draft pick in the event that he rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere next winter. The prospect of losing him for that level of minimal return, coupled with ownership’s clear goal of dipping south of the $208MM luxury tax barrier, ultimately led rookie chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom to orchestrate tonight’s mega-deal.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, will land perhaps the greatest consolation prize in history. After missing out on top target Gerrit Cole earlier this winter, they’ve now acquired one of the game’s best all-around players, Betts, in addition to a high-profile starter who can still contribute to their rotation — even if his halcyon days are in the past.

Betts, still only 27, now joins an outfield that’ll feature Cody Bellinger and A.J. Pollock, with the versatile Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez playing complementary roles as well. While Betts didn’t quite replicate his 2018 MVP production in 2019, his .295/.391/.524 slash was still elite by measure of both wRC+ and OPS+ (both 135). He’s now been at least 35 percent better than an average hitter in three of the past four seasons by those same measures.

The bat alone would make Betts a coveted player, but he’s also among baseball’s best baserunners and an all-world defender in the outfield. Betts has won a Gold Glove in each of the past four seasons, and his 98 Defensive Runs Saved in that time lead all Major League players, regardless of position, by a whopping 13 runs. His aversion to signing a long-term deal means he has to be viewed as a pure rental player, but if you’re going to rent any player on the planet, renting one whose 30.7 fWAR over the past four seasons trails only Mike Trout for the MLB lead is certainly a good way to go. Betts will earn a $27MM salary after avoiding arbitration for the final time this winter — a record salary for an arb-eligible player.

At 34 years old, Price probably won’t be winning any more Cy Young Awards in his career, but this past season’s 4.28 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.26 HR/9 and 41 percent grounder rate were all quite sound. That ERA undersells the season that Price had, too; he was plagued by a career-worst .336 average on balls in play, and fielding-independent metrics were more bullish on his efforts (3.62 FIP, 3.73 xFIP, 3.85 SIERA).

David Price | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

In fact, Price carried a terrific 3.16 ERA and 3.00 FIP through his first 17 starts and 88 1/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2019. Things began to go south in July as he tried to pitch through a cyst in his left wrist, and he eventually went on the injured list for more than a month while dealing with the issue. He returned in early September but made only one appearance before being shut down and undergoing surgery to alleviate the issue. Price is still owed $96MM under the then-record $217MM contract he signed prior to the 2016 season, but the Red Sox will pay a substantial portion of that sum to lessen the sting for the Dodgers.

Acquiring Betts and Price will cost Los Angeles a hefty five years of control over Verdugo and four more years of the talented Maeda, and there’s another major ripple effect, as the Dodgers have reportedly struck a separate trade sending outfielder Joc Pederson to the Angels in exchange for young infielder Luis Rengifo. Between the cash the Red Sox are sending to cover some of Price’s contract, the subtraction of Maeda and now the subtraction of Pederson’s final arbitration salary, it seems likely that the Dodgers will have managed to stay beneath the luxury tax threshold.

Not to be lost in the shuffle, the Twins are adding a quality arm to a rotation that looked to be in need of augmentation. In Maeda, they land an accomplished 31-year-old starter (32 in April) who prefers to work out of the rotation but was frequently moved to the bullpen for short stints — perhaps in part due to the massive incentives package in his eight-year contract.

Kenta Maeda | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Whether the Dodgers deliberately manipulated Maeda’s rotation work to suppress his earnings can’t be known, but his deal contains only a $3MM annual base with a whopping $10MM in annual bonuses based on games started and innings pitched. With the Twins, he’ll all but certainly be viewed as a rotation piece and be given every opportunity to max out those additional payments. Maeda is signed through the 2023 season, and his contract calls for a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade, so he can tack that onto his career earnings.

In 589 career innings, Maeda has a 3.87 ERA with 9.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 1.18 HR/9 and a 40.9 percent ground-ball rate. That he’s more of a fly-ball pitcher bodes well for his fortunes in Minnesota, as the Twins have significant questions about their middle-infield defense but a high-quality group of outfield defenders led by Byron Buxton and Max Kepler. Maeda has racked up 32 2/3 career postseason innings as well, pitching to a 3.31 ERA in that time. He might not be the ace Twins fans hoped to net early this winter, but he’ll bump one of two rookies — southpaw Devin Smeltzer or right-hander Randy Dobnak — from the rotation and provide a clear boost.

In 2020, Maeda will step into a rotation that’ll be fronted by Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi. The Twins also re-signed Michael Pineda to a two-year contract earlier this winter, but he’ll be out through mid-May as he serves a reduced 60-game suspension for taking a banned substance. Veteran Homer Bailey will also be a part of the Twins’ starting staff after signing a one-year pact on the heels of a healthy season, and Maeda will eventually be reunited with former Dodgers teammate Rich Hill. The veteran southpaw inked a one-year deal this winter but will be out until the summer as he recovers from primary revision surgery.

Looking beyond the 2020 campaign, Maeda is all the more important for the Twins. Odorizzi, Bailey and Hill are all slated to become free agents next winter, so prior to this trade, Berrios and Pineda were the only proven starters Minnesota controlled beyond the upcoming campaign. Maeda gives them a solid mid-rotation presence to help anchor the staff and does so at an affordable rate that’ll allow the Twins to continue to be aggressive in free agency next year if they choose to double down on this winter’s surprising Josh Donaldson splash.

As for the Red Sox, today is presumably one of the most difficult days in franchise history for a number of the team’s longest-tenured executives. Luxury tax aside, Sox ownership recognizes that trading Betts will be a wildly unpopular move. John Henry and Co. surely didn’t think they’d be in this position just 16 months ago when celebrating a World Series victory, but injuries and some ill-fated expenditures brought about a mediocre 2019 season and a slew of tough choices. It’s easy to argue that a team with such considerable financial resources at its disposal should simply have kept Betts and paid up for him, but even their detractors can agree that there’s likely little joy in trading away a generational player.

The 2020 Red Sox are unquestionably worse having made this move, but they were a long shot to topple the Yankees anyhow and now acquire a pair of potential building blocks. The 23-year-old Verdugo is a longtime top prospect who enjoyed a strong 2019 season and will step right into the void left by Betts. He’s fresh off a .294/.342/.475 slash with a dozen home runs, 22 doubles and two triples in 377 plate appearances with Los Angeles and should see his playing time soar to full-time levels in 2020 and beyond.

Alex Verdugo | Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Verdugo has excellent bat-to-ball skills and rarely strikes out (13.7 percent in his career). And while he’s no Betts with the glove — no one is — he racked up 13 DRS in 2019 and is capable of handling all three outfield positions. He’s the Red Sox’ right fielder of the future, and unlike many young players who are acquired for stars, that future will start right away; Verdugo should be in the Opening Day lineup and give Sox fans an immediate look at his potential.

The 21-year-old Graterol is less certain to open the year with the Sox, but he’s an electric and exciting talent — albeit one with more volatility than Verdugo. Injuries have plagued Graterol throughout his minor league career — he’s already undergone Tommy John surgery and has battled shoulder troubles, too — but pitchers with his type of velocity and upside are rare. The massive 6’1″, 255-pounder boasts a fastball that sits just under 100 mph and can reach as high as 103 mph, and he’s utterly dominated in the minors when healthy.

Graterol owns a career 2.48 ERA with 9.7 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 in 214 minor league frames, and he skyrocketed across multiple levels to make his MLB debut in 2019. There’s some concern that his future is in the bullpen, but the Red Sox will likely give him every opportunity to prove that he can be a difference-maker in their rotation.

Graterol was a consensus Top 100 prospect a year ago and remains on those oft-cited rankings. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs has already moved Graterol to the top of Boston’s prospect rankings, noting the big righty’s potential to either function as a high-end starter or, if he moves to the ’pen, an elite reliever.

Although there are myriad high-profile players whose name will still be bandied about the trade market, there’s a chance that the Betts/Price/Maeda blockbuster will serve as the finishing touch on what has been a riveting offseason — on that hearkened back to the pre-labor-tension days that seem far longer ago than just two or three years. And in some respects, it’s merely an interesting prelude to a 2020-21 offseason that will quite likely see Betts set out into the free-agent market in search of the largest contract in MLB history. Trades of this magnitude are of the utmost rarity — and virtually unprecedented this time of year — and there’s a good chance that come October we’ll look back at Feb. 4 as a day that majorly impacted multiple division races and postseason outcomes.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported (via Twitter) that a deal was in place after MLB Network’s Jon Heyman and the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reported that talks had become “advanced.” Speier reported the inclusion of a third team (Twitter link). SKOR North Radio’s Darren Wolfson first suggested the Twins’ potential involvement (Twitter link), and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted that the Twins were indeed the third team. Rosenthal reported the basic framework of the deal, tweeting that Betts and Price would head to L.A., Maeda would go to Minnesota and that Verdugo and Graterol were headed to Boston.

Red Sox, Dodgers In “Advanced” Talks On Mookie Betts

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8:05pm: A third team could be involved in talks, tweets Rosenthal, though the basic framework of the deal being discussed still includes Price and Betts going to L.A. and Verdugo going to Boston.

8:03pm: The current proposal would send both Betts and Price to Los Angeles, tweets Speier. The two sides are reviewing medicals on all of the potentially involved players. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that young outfielder Alex Verdugo would be the centerpiece going to Boston, as has been previously rumored.

7:58pm: Trade talks centering around Red Sox star right fielder Mookie Betts have once again heated up, tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network, who calls the Dodgers the favorite to land him. The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier adds that Boston and Los Angeles are in “advanced” talks and that it’s possible a deal will come together tonight. The Padres aren’t completely out of the mix just yet, per Heyman.

The Betts trade saga has dominated headlines for the past week, with the Red Sox soliciting offers on the 2018 AL MVP from both the Dodgers and Padres. Both teams have obvious motivations to add Betts to the fold, but the Dodgers are already a clear postseason contender with deeper pockets and a generally strong mix of MLB-ready talent and high-end prospects. Previous reports have indicated that the Red Sox are hoping to attach part of David Price’s contract in a deal with the Dodgers, though it’s not clear whether the current permutations of talks include the former Cy Young winner, who is owed $96MM over the next three years.

Betts, 27, agreed to a record-setting $27MM salary in his final trip through the arbitration process earlier this winter. He’s been outspoken and candid about his desire to test free agency rather than sign an extension, so he has to be viewed purely as a one-year rental for any club that acquires him. By trading him, the Red Sox would drop their projected luxury tax commitments to about $212MM — just $4MM over the $208MM threshold. If they’re successfully able to unload a portion of Price’s deal, new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom will have successfully dipped below the luxury tax line. That’s been a clear goal for Boston ownership all winter, despite chairman John Henry’s dubious claims that the team is more focused on competitiveness than on resetting their luxury penalty level.

Red Sox Still Pondering Mookie Betts Trade Scenarios

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The waiting game continues, despite expectations to the contrary. As of this morning, with just one week until pitchers and catchers report, Mookie Betts remains a member of the Red Sox.

All day yesterday it seemed a trade could drop at any moment. Reports the evening prior had indicated as much. Padres beat writer Kevin Acee tweeted midday that “multiple people close to situation believe resolution on Mookie Betts trade is imminent.”

It seems the Friars expected to find out whether they or the division-overlord Dodgers would land a new superstar. They’re still waiting right along with the rest of us.

The Red Sox are still engaged with both west coast organizations, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. And the Boston club is still not even settled on particular trade scenarios with each prospective trade partner. Speier says that concepts both including and excluding high-priced lefty David Price remain on the table.

So, is today the day? Perhaps. But new Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seems determined to take his time making his first major call. While it has appeared that talks were building to a crescendo, Speier explains that the club still isn’t feeling timing or logistical pressure.

Presumably, there’s a point in the near future at which the constraints of the calendar will force a move (or lack thereof). The Padres and Dodgers need to make alternative plans if they can’t nab Betts. And the Boston club no doubt prefers not to open camp with such massive uncertainty hanging over the organization. Even if it can’t be said that a resolution is now truly imminent, it seems quite likely to come within the week.

Latest On Dodgers’ Pursuit Of Mookie Betts

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5:54PM: “All signs point to a two-team race” between the Dodgers and Padres for Betts, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes, and “Major League sources believe that it’s likelier than not that Betts gets traded, potentially in the very near future.”  Price might yet be involved in a potential Dodgers deal, though adding Price alongside Betts “might compromise the prospect return for the Sox,” since Los Angeles doesn’t want to absorb much of Price’s contract.  On the Padres’ side, they “seem open on just about any other outfielder” than Tommy Pham or Trent Grisham in trade talks.  The Diamondbacks were another team linked to Betts in trade rumors, though Speier hears from a source that there was “no real traction” between Boston and Arizona even before the D’Backs acquired Starling Marte, so Arizona seems to be out of the Betts hunt.

7:30AM: With camp fast approaching, teams weighing major trades are surely beginning to feel the pressure. The Dodgers are keeping their cool as they continue to pursue Red Sox star Mookie Betts, Andy McCullough of The Athletic writes (subscription link). But they’re also possibly nearing a decision.

Talks between the coastal giants could well be reaching an inflection point, it seems. McCullough writes that the teams have “approached a resolution” in their talks “in recent days.”

Details of the packages under consideration are limited; as McCullough notes, it’s possible to imagine rather a wide variety of permutations. But the talks — at least, in some variations — do involve high-priced Boston hurler David Price. (Shades of another major trade between these teams?)

As we discussed recently in a poll on the subject, there’s no shortage of pressure on the team to make strides. And the goal is obviously to find a major new performer. But the team also has reason to remain comfortable with its existing talent. No surprise, then, that McCullough indicates the organization isn’t really interested in stretching too far to make a deal.

It’s worth noting, too, that holding back assets for mid-season trades represents a viable alternative strategy. Betts himself could be available then, if he’s not poached first by another club (such as the division-rival Padres). The Dodgers can’t assume they’ll coast to another title, particularly now that the Diamondbacks have compiled such an interesting roster, but there’s some conceptual merit to waiting for mid-season roster holes to open before acting.

Speaking of that aforementioned poll … the results were interesting. Respondents were fairly evenly split as to whether the Dodgers would pull off a blockbuster. Among those that foresee a deal, about half think Betts will indeed land to L.A.

Padres Discussing Mookie Betts Trade With Red Sox

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January 24: Talks between San Diego and Boston regarding Betts are “ongoing,” Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. The Padres have proposed scenarios that would send Myers, controllable MLB assets and prospects to the Red Sox, though like Acee, he suggests the Padres’ very best prospects haven’t been included in talks. Speier adds that the Padres have been willing to “clear the bar” that was set by last year’s Paul Goldschmidt trade between Arizona and St. Louis, wherein the Cardinals sent catcher Carson Kelly, righty Luke Weaver, infield prospect Andy Young and a Competitive Balance draft pick to Arizona.

January 23, 7:34pm: The main stumbling block in trade talks is how much of Myers’ contract the Red Sox would be covering, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports, as the Padres want Boston’s obligation “to be much closer to the full value of the contract.”  The prospects reportedly being discussed in the trade aren’t any of San Diego’s “top five minor leaguers,” which would mean the likes of Gore or Patino aren’t involved.

6:29pm: The Padres and Red Sox have had talks about a deal that would send former AL MVP Mookie Betts to San Diego, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports (subscription required).  Boston’s side of the trade would consist of Wil Myers and “a significant amount of prospect talent,” as per the most recent discussion between the two clubs.

No trade seems close, as “multiple people familiar with the discussions characterized an agreement as unlikely….yet both sides appear to have legitimate interest.”  If nothing else, the news indicates that the Red Sox haven’t closed the door on moving Betts prior to Opening Day, despite chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom’s multiple statements about his belief that Betts will remain in Boston.  That said, trade talks doesn’t necessarily contradict Bloom’s comments; naturally he would be open to hearing what other teams have to say, even if he ultimately thinks Betts won’t be dealt since no club would meet the very high asking price he has put on Betts’ services.

That asking price doesn’t appear to be part of these talks with the Padres, which could be why Lin’s sources don’t think a trade will be finalized.  As per ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, the Red Sox were looking to acquire “two high-end prospects” for a trade package that included Betts and David Price, with the trade partner covering “most or all” of the $96MM owed to Price through the 2022 season.  Price’s name surfaced in talks with San Diego involving Myers earlier this offseason, though the Padres “seemingly have limited interest in such a scenario,” Lin writes.

Myers is owed $61MM over the next three seasons, and has been an inconsistent performer since signing that six-year, $83MM extension prior to the 2017 campaign.  Myers has hit .244/.323/.444 with 59 homers over 1482 PA the last three seasons, good for only a modest 103 wRC+ and 105 OPS+.  Myers has generated only 3.0 fWAR over that span due to this middling offensive performance and an increasing lack of defensive value — the Padres’ signing of first baseman Eric Hosmer left Myers bouncing around third base and all three outfield spots without much good glovework at any spot.

In Boston, Myers would probably at least get his old first base job back, as the Sox could deploy youngster Michael Chavis mostly as a second baseman.  (Myers could also take over Betts’ spot in right field on days when Chavis is at first base.)  There are some past ties between Bloom and Myers, as Bloom was in Tampa Bay’s front office when the Rays acquired Myers from the Royals prior to the 2013 season — and, it should be noted, also when the Rays dealt Myers to San Diego in the 2014-15 offseason.

Unless the Sox think a move to Fenway Park would unlock Myers’ bat in a major fashion, taking on Myers’ deal as part of a Betts trade would appear to be something of a curious move for a Boston club that seems to have made an offseason priority (despite the claims of owner John Henry) of reducing or altogether avoiding further luxury tax payments in 2020 after two years of overages.  Since a contract’s luxury tax hit is calculated by average annual value, Myers’ $13.833 AAV is far less than the $27MM Betts is owed in 2020, which is also Betts’ final year under contract before hitting free agency.

Despite Betts’ lack of remaining contractual control and his stated desire to test free agency rather than sign an extension, moving a superstar like Betts for, essentially salary relief, isn’t the type of move that would go over well with Boston fans.  One would figure the Sox are asking for the very best young talents from the Padres’ farm system, though reports from earlier this winter indicated that San Diego wasn’t willing to put the likes of Chris Paddack, MacKenzie Gore, and Luis Patino on the table in trade talks.

Other prospects could be under consideration in these Betts talks, as the Padres aren’t hurting for blue chip talent in their deep pipeline.  From the Padres’ perspective, even parting ways with a Gore or Patino might be seen as acceptable if it meant swapping Myers for one of the sport’s best players in Betts.  The Padres would be much better positioned to contend in 2020 with Betts in their lineup, and even if Betts did leave after the 2020 season, San Diego would stand to recoup a draft pick via the qualifying offer (thus partially replenishing their minor league ranks) and they’d still have the benefit of having Myers’ deal off of the books.

Latest On Red Sox’ Asking Price For Mookie Betts

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We missed this recent item, but it bears highlighting. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney recently provided some details (Insider link) on the asking price the Red Sox have placed on star outfielder Mookie Betts.

It goes without saying that the Boston organization is requesting quite a bit in return for an opportunity to rent one of the game’s best players. Otherwise, we might already have seen a swap. And chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom may not have been quite so forthright in recently announcing his “expectation” that Betts will remain with the club for 2020.

Olney’s report is most interesting for its indications of the sort of structure the Red Sox would be willing to consider. He writes that the Sox would look to package Betts (and his big upcoming arbitration salary) with veteran hurler David Price (including “most or all” of his remaining $96MM in guaranteed earnings). To acquire those quality but highly compensated veterans, a rival organization would have to part with “two high-end prospects to front the deal.”

Even allowing a wide degree of latitude for interpretation regarding the quality of the talent requested in return, that feels like a steep ask. It’s also an understandable one. Betts may be costly, but he’s also a 27-year-old with a recent 10-WAR season under his belt. The well-rounded, high-end performer might conceivably take a team from plausible contender to division favorite.

The involvement of Price is notable both for what it says of the Red Sox’ valuation of the lefty — it remains rather high — and for what it means for the potential universe of Betts pursuers. All MLB teams could fit Betts into a payroll, even if it meant shuffling the deck to meet their internal targets. But adding that salary and most of the money owed Price in one fell swoop is another thing entirely. Some clubs that might theoretically match up on Betts could be taken out of the picture if Price must indeed be bundled.

It remains to be seen whether there’ll be further talks involving this Betts-Price scenario. Olney notes that the Red Sox could simply carry their young star into the season in hopes that he and others will spur a rebound performance after a laggard 2019 showing. If so, it’ll easily be worth the foregone trade return. If not, there’s always the trade deadline to reconsider, with Betts potentially featuring as a pennant-race-altering figure.

Blue Jays Showing Interest In David Price

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The Blue Jays and Red Sox are discussing a deal that would send veteran starter David Price to Toronto, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. While Rosenthal is quick to note that an official move isn’t close yet, it’s nonetheless notable that Price is in play for a Blue Jays team that has made abundantly clear its desire to upgrade the starting rotation.

The progress of the teams’ negotiations will hinge on Boston’s willingness to cover some portion of the remaining three years and $96MM on Price’s contract. It’s been no secret that the Red Sox, aiming to duck beneath the luxury tax threshold for 2020, are seeking a taker for Price, Nathan Eovaldi, or both. However, the team has simultaneously expressed its disinclination to include a promising piece simply to facilitate a trade. While that would strengthen the return for Price, and likely decrease the amount of cash needed to move him, it would either detract further from the big league roster or eat into an already-thin farm system.

Furthermore, attaching a more attractive player to Price likely isn’t necessary: the Red Sox, for their part, are said to be investigating other options for Price, who has garnered interest from other teams, including the Padres, Cardinals, and Reds, among others. He’s a valuable pitcher, albeit one who hasn’t lived up to the expectations that came with his $217MM price tag. So it makes sense that pitching-needy teams should explore whether they Price can be had for, say, $20MM annually.

From Boston’s point of view, it’s worth nothing that even offloading $20MM of Price’s yearly salary won’t be enough to get them under the tax line. As Rosenthal states, Roster Resource pegs the Sox’ current luxury tax obligations at nearly $238MM, meaning that almost all of Price’s salary would have to come off the books if they are to sneak under the $208MM luxury tax threshold. Of course, that’s part of why Eovaldi and Mookie Betts have also been named as candidates to be traded this winter.

Price, of course, made brief stint with Toronto in 2015, when he was acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadline. To be sure, remnants from that 2015 team are few and far between, with a new front office and manager in place, as well as a completely refreshed core of youthful position players.

The Jays have been frequently linked to free-agent southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu, who looks like the last remaining top-flight starter on the market. However, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today reporting that as many as seven teams are in the running for Ryu’s services, there’s a very real possibility that Toronto will strike out on that front and be forced to pivot to alternate means of improving the rotation. They’ve already added Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson, but lack a real number one after trading Marcus Stroman last year.

Quick Hits: Brewers, Garcia, Phillies, Bumgarner, Red Sox, Price

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The Brewers are “trying hard” to bring Avisail Garcia to Milwaukee, tweets The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Earlier, Jose F. Rivera of ESPN Deportes put the Brewers close to a deal with the Mato Sports Management client. Garcia would figure to be a good fit to share time in the outfield with the lefty-hitting Ben Gamel. Garcia has played mostly right field in his career, a few spot starts in left notwithstanding. If indeed he does sign with the Brewers, it could mean moving Christian Yelich back to left. Ryan Braun is also an option for the outfield, though as of right now he’s penciled in for the lion’s share of starts at first base.

  • Having nabbed a couple of former New York athletes in Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius, the Phillies are near their spending limit for 2019. Together, Wheeler and Gregorius add $37.6MM to Philly’s luxury tax ledger for 2019. Estimates put the Phillies right up against the $208MM tax threshold, putting some added emphasis to any further moves made this winter. Still, execs from around the league believe they are open to further spending, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The Phillies will continue to look for “opportunistic” signings. It’s unlikely, then, that the Phillies would be in on Madison Bumgarner, given the league-wide interest in the lefty and the hefty contract he is likely to secure.
  • Sneaking under the luxury tax remains a “realistic” goal for the Red Sox, per The Athletic’s Chad Jennings. The new regime led by Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom took a more egalitarian approach to the winter meetings than in recent years. Boston took the time to gauge the lay of the land rather than strike hard for a specific target. Moving all or most of the three-years, $96MM owed to David Price is still the quickest path to ducking the tax, but Bloom is resistant to making Price’s contract more palatable by attaching prospects. They are, however, willing to pay down Price’s contract to get it closer to $20MM per year rather than the current $32MM. Until Price does get moved, expect more of the same as the Red Sox will continue to work around the margins to tweak the roster.

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