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2011 Vesting Options Update

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We entered the season with nine 2011 vesting option situations to watch.  With one month in the books, several have already been pretty much decided.  Let's take a look.

  • Brian Fuentes, Angels.  A back strain put Fuentes on the DL for a little while, making it unlikely he reaches 55 games finished.  He'd need 51 in the team's remaining 136 games to cause his $9MM option to vest.
  • Billy Wagner, Braves.  Wagner's $6.5MM option vests with 50 games finished.  He's finished eight games so far, and would have a shot at 50.  However, the 38-year-old lefty recently told Braves manager Bobby Cox he'll retire after the season.
  • Trever Miller, Cardinals.  His $2MM option vests with 45 games, and he's appeared in seven so far.  That's behind Miller's typical pace; he's averaged 71 the last three years.  It's probably random, and Miller should still reach 45 games. 
  • Matt Cain, Giants.  The $6.25MM option probably would've vested, but the Giants decided to guarantee Cain's 2011 salary at $7MM as part of an extension.
  • Kerry Wood, Indians.  His $11MM option vests with 55 games finished, but a back injury has Wood just now approaching his 2010 big league debut.
  • Alex Cora, Mets.  His $2MM option vests with 80 starts.  He's started ten games so far.  With Luis Castillo and Jose Reyes in the Mets' middle infield, we can't rule this one out yet.
  • Darren Oliver, Rangers.  His $3.25MM option vests with 59 appearances.  He's already made a dozen, so this is looking likely.
  • Ramon Hernandez, Reds.  His $3.25MM option vests with 120 games played.  Hernandez is at 16 so far, with the red-hot Ryan Hanigan getting more playing time recently.
  • Magglio Ordonez, Tigers.  His $15MM option vests with 135 starts or 540 plate appearances.  He's at 25 games started and 113 plate appearances, so he'll get there barring injury.
  • We're down to five vesting options to monitor: Miller, Cora, Oliver, Hernandez, and Ordonez.  Also keep an eye on Francisco Rodriguez, whose scary $17.5MM option for 2012 vests with 100 games finished in 2010-11, 55 games finished in '11, and a successful physical after the '11 season.  K-Rod has finished nine games on the young season.

Morosi On Washburn, Tigers, Vernon Wells

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A few links from Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports…

Odds & Ends: Tigers, Zobrist, Posey, Crisp

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Sunday night linkage..

Cafardo On Suzuki, Cabrera, Griffey, Zambrano

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In Nick Cafardo's latest piece for the Boston Globe, he takes an extended look at the Red Sox' early-season catching issues. He reiterates that if David Ortiz's struggles continue, the logical solution is to move Victor Martinez to DH and acquire a catcher. Cafardo names Kurt Suzuki as a player who would intrigue the Sox, since he can hit as well as play defense. Here are a few of Cafardo's other notes:

  • Other catchers to keep an eye on for the Sox include Chris Iannetta, Miguel Olivo, Chris Snyder, and even Twins prospect Wilson Ramos, though he'd be costly.
  • Cafardo praises the work Miguel Cabrera has put in to improve his image after last year's off-field problems. According to Cafardo, the Tigers "entertained trade proposals for him, but they wanted the farm in return."
  • Ken Griffey Jr. is off to a slow start this year, but the Mariners will give him time to work through it. Seattle may eventually have to limit his playing time if his bat doesn't get hot, but would never release him.
  • Cafardo is skeptical that the Cubs will be able to trade for a setup man and move Carlos Zambrano back into the rotation in the near future, suggesting the relief market is fairly thin.
  • One AL international scout's assessment of Cuban shortstops Jose Iglesias and Adeiny Hechavarria: "Iglesias is certainly the more polished player at this stage, but Hechavarria has more upside…. I’d say Iglesias could play defensively in the big leagues right now, where Hechavarria would need a year or two to refine his game a bit." While the Sox would like to give Iglesias more minor league experience, they could bring him up if something were to happen to Marco Scutaro or Dustin Pedroia.

Largest Contracts In Team History

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We've already looked at the largest contracts by service time and position, so let's now dig up the largest contracts ever given out by each of the 30 teams. These are in terms of guaranteed money only, but some could end up being even larger because of incentives and option years.

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

Top Trade Chips: AL Central

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Let's continue our look at each club's top trade chips today with the AL Central…

  • Indians: The Tribe have dealt their Opening Day starter in each of the last two seasons, and there's a good chance they'll do it again with Jake Westbrook in 2010. The 32-year-old righty will earn $11MM this season, the last one on his contract. After dumping Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez in cost-cutting moves last year, expect them to shop Westbrook around for prospects this summer.
  • Royals: All four of Kansas City's outfielders come off the books after this season (assuming some options are bought out for six figures), so Rick Ankiel, David DeJesus, Scott Podsednik, and even Jose Guillen could be moved in a deal for a young player. The team would obviously have to eat a lot of money to move Guillen. The contracts of relievers Juan Cruz and Kyle Farnsworth also expire after the season, so there might be some interest in them.
  • Tigers: Detroit isn't going to move any of their young power arms, but if they eat a large chunk of salary like they did with Nate Robertson, there might be interest in Jeremy Bonderman and/or Dontrelle Willis. Young backstop Alex Avila could make Gerald Laird expendable as well. The Tigers have four lefty relievers on their 40-man roster (Phil Coke, Fu-Te Ni, Daniel Schlereth, and Brad Thomas), and that demographic is always in demand.
  • Twins: Minnesota has one of the best trade chips in the league, blocked catching prospect Wilson Ramos. Lefty Glen Perkins is pitching in Triple-A and seems to have fallen out of favor with the club after filing a grievance, so he could be made available as well. He has four years of team control left.
  • White Sox: GM Kenny Williams isn't shy about emptying out the farm system in a trade for an established big leaguer, which has left him with little minor league ammo. Their best young prospects are catcher Tyler Flowers and starter Daniel Hudson, who would seem to have a future with the club, but I'm not going to put anything past Williams. Flowers could make A.J. Pierzynski or Ramon Castro expendable, ditto Hudson and Freddy Garcia. Gordon Beckham should be untouchable, obviously.

Odds & Ends: Strasburg, Guillen, Marlins, Posey

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Some links as the first week of baseball comes to a close…

  • Stephen Strasburg, who struck out eight over five innings of work in his pro debut today, will be limited to about 100 innings this year, according to MLB.com's Peter Gammons (via Twitter). Gammons says Scott Boras negotiated that condition into the righty's deal with the Nationals last summer. However, Nationals farm director Doug Harris told MASN.com's Ben Goessling that a 100 inning cap for Strasburg "doesn't hold water" (Twitter link). Harris says 150-160 innings would be reasonable for Strasburg (Twitter link).
  • MLB.com's Jason Beck explains that Carlos Guillen nearly became an Indian six years ago.
  • Tom D'Angelo of the Palm Beach Post wonders how long the Marlins will let Cameron Maybin struggle before calling on top prospect Mike Stanton.
  • Buster Posey had a huge opening week in Triple A, so Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News wonders (via Twitter) how long the Giants can keep him in the minors. The timing of Posey's call up matters a great deal to the Giants, as I explained here.

Examining The Tigers’ Rotation

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When we looked last week at questions facing the AL Central heading into the season, a crucial one for the Tigers involved their starting pitching. With Justin Verlander heading up Detroit's rotation, they can match aces with any club. After Verlander though, there are a few question marks for a team that aims to contend.

Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer have a ton of talent, but had thrown less than 400 major league innings between them coming into 2010. At the back of the rotation, although Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman have enjoyed success in the past, both have struggled immensely over the past three years. Last season, Willis posted a 7.49 ERA in seven big league starts, while Bonderman had an 8.71 mark in eight appearances.

There are at least a couple names remaining on the free agent market that could interest the Tigers. Jarrod Washburn may not be one of them — his disastrous eight-game stint in 2009 in Detroit (7.33 ERA) is too fresh, and Scott Boras is still pushing for his client to earn more than clubs are willing to pay. Right-handers like Pedro Martinez and Braden Looper could be fits for the Tigers, however. Pedro has been effective enough in the National League to believe that he could succeed in the AL Central, and Looper has eaten up 190+ IP in each of the last two seasons.

For now, the Tigers appear content to exercise some patience. By trading away Nate Robertson, they exhibited confidence in their current group of arms, and so far they've been proven right. Willis and Bonderman both opened their campaigns with quality starts, and should young guns Porcello and Scherzer falter, it's more likely to happen later in the year, as they rack up a full season of innings. The success of the Tigers' rotation should be an important factor in the AL Central race in 2010. Whether or not they'll need to acquire another starter will be worth keeping an eye on as the year progresses.

Largest Contracts By Service Time

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When Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo signed his five year, $30.1MM extension earlier today, it marked the largest contract ever signed by a pitcher with less than three years of service time.

Let's look at the richest contracts by service time, in terms of guaranteed money…

Less Than One Year
Position Player: Ryan Braun. Eight years, $45MM
Pitcher: C.C. Sabathia. Four years, $9.5MM.

One To Two Years
Position Player: Chris Young. Five years, $28MM.
Pitcher: Fausto Carmona. Four years, $15MM.

Two To Three Years
Position Player: Hanley Ramirez. Six years, $70MM.
Pitcher: Yovani Gallardo.  Five years, $30.1MM.

Three To Four Years
Position Player: Albert Pujols. Seven years, $100MM. 
Pitcher: Scott Kazmir. Three years, $28.5MM.

Four To Five Years
Position Player: Miguel Cabrera. Eight years, $152.3MM.
Pitcher: Justin Verlander. Five years, $80MM.

Five To Six Years
Position Player: Derek Jeter. Ten years, $189MM.
Pitcher: Jake Peavy. Three years, $52MM. 

Six-plus Years
Position Player: Alex Rodriguez. Ten years, $275MM.
Pitcher: C.C. Sabathia. Seven years, $171MM.

Some thoughts…

  • The most regrettable deals were signed very early in the player's career, Young and Carmona. Might be a lesson in using up those pre-arbitration years before taking the plunge.
  • The largest contract signed by a position player with less than one year of service time after Braun's deal is Evan Longoria's, which will pay him just $17.5MM over six years. Is Braun overpaid, or is Longoria underpaid? I think the answer is clear.
  • Sabathia's four year, $9.5MM deal nearly tripled Roy Halladay's three year, $3.7MM deal with Toronto, which was the previous record for a pitcher with less an a year of service time.
  • One only of the above contracts has expired.

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

Odds & Ends: Lerew, Cuba, Coonelly, Hechavarria

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Links for Wednesday…

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