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Fernando Tatis Jr.

Padres’ GM Met With Tatis Last Week; No Offer Made Yet

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Jan. 12: Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic report that Preller visited Tatis in the Dominican Republic last week. While that might seem to run contrary to yesterday’s report from Nightengale, ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds that Preller and Tatis did indeed meet, but no offer has been made. Passan characterizes things similarly to Nightengale, suggesting that Preller & Co. expect talks to take place and that last week’s meeting could be a precursor to earnest negotiations. The Padres are optimistic about getting something done before Opening Day, per The Athletic.

Jan. 11: Reports of an imminent contract extension for Tatis may be premature. Per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Tatis and the Padres have yet to begin contract negotiations. Both sides remain amenable to an extension, and they are likely to begin discussions before spring training in mid-February, writes Nightengale. There is no rush for the two sides, however, and it remains wholly possible that Tatis will begin the 2021 season without a long-term extension in place.

Jan. 9: The Padres are in talks with star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. about a massive contract extension, Dominican news outlet Pio Deportes reports (Twitter link).  The deal would keep Tatis in San Diego into the next decade, as the extension is reportedly an 11-year pact worth $320MM.  According to both Pio Deportes and NBC Sports Bay Area’s Jessica Kleinschmidt (Twitter link), talks seem pretty advanced, as a source tells Kleinschmidt there is “ink on paper” but the deal still might not be finalized within the next week.

The $320MM figure would make Tatis’ extension the sixth-richest contract in baseball history, dropping teammate Manny Machado’s ten-year/$300MM pact down into seventh on the all-time list.  Between these two major deals, hefty contracts for Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer, and even the recent trades that brought Yu Darvish and Blake Snell to San Diego, Padres GM A.J. Preller and team ownership are again indicating that the team is prepared to spend at top-tier levels.

Hosmer’s deal runs through at least the 2025 season, Machado is signed through 2028 with an opt-out after the 2023 season, and the discussed terms of Tatis’ deal would lock him up through the 2031 campaign.  It seems quite possible that the Tatis extension will also include at least one opt-out, as since Tatis only just turned 22 years old, he and his agents at the MVP Sports Group might want at least one crack at entering the market (or extracting more years and money in a renegotiation with the Padres) during Tatis’ prime years.

Tatis is controlled through the 2024 season, via one pre-arbitration year and three years of arbitration eligibility.  The Padres famously placed Tatis on the roster for Opening Day 2019, eschewing a chance to keep him the minors long enough for the team to gain an extra year of control over his services — this decision immediately started Tatis’ service clock but gave the Padres more short-term opportunity in terms of getting a star product on the roster to help the big league team.

An extension would essentially make that debate a moot point, and given how Tatis has performed in the majors, one can hardly fault Preller and company for wanting to unleash him on MLB as quickly as possible.  Despite battling hamstring and back problems in his rookie year, Tatis has hit .301/.374/.582 with 39 homers and 27 steals (in 36 chances) over his 629 plate appearances in 2019-20.  This past season, Tatis earned a Silver Slugger Award and finished fourth in NL MVP voting.

There is obvious risk in committing such money to a player who is still so young, and has played the equivalent of essentially only one full season.  That said, it also makes sense for the Padres to take the leap on a player who showed such promise in the minors (much to the chagrin of the White Sox) and has already made a big impact in San Diego’s lineup.

It’s safe to assume that Tatis’ annual salaries throughout what would have been his arb years would be somewhat limited, in order to give the Padres more flexibility in terms of pure dollars while the money owed to Myers, Snell, and Drew Pomeranz gradually come off the books.  If Tatis’ big annual salaries don’t kick in until 2025, that leaves only Machado, Hosmer, and possibly Ha-Seong Kim (at an $11MM mutual option) still remaining on the payroll.

The Competitive Balance Tax is the other interesting wrinkle, as the average annual value of Tatis’ deal (a little over $29.09MM) would be counted against the Padres’ tax bill for all 11 seasons, no matter what Tatis made in terms of actual dollars.  Assuming Tatis’ extension begins in the 2021 season, San Diego would still have some flexibility under the $210MM tax threshold this year, as their current tax estimate is roughly $165.28MM.  Padres ownership also might not mind exceeding the CBT threshold for a season or two if such an expenditure landed the club a “final piece of the puzzle” type of player for a World Series contender.

A.J. Preller Discusses Padres’ Offseason, Tatis, Lamet

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Padres general manager A.J. Preller spoke with reporters (including MLB.com’s Maria Guardado and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin) Monday about a variety of topics related to the team’s offseason business, including a continued search for pitching.  However, an in-house star was also discussed, as Preller said that working out a multi-year extension for Fernando Tatis Jr. is “a priority” for the organization.

“I think his situation is a priority and I think we’re in a position to try to line up on a deal,” Preller said.  “I think we’ll see what happens here over the course of the rest of the offseason, to see if we can do that.”

Tatis has quickly become one of baseball’s biggest young talents over his two MLB seasons, hitting .301/.374/.582 with 39 homers over 629 career plate appearances.  He doesn’t even turn 22 years old until January, putting him on pace to receive a potential record-setting free agent contract if he reaches the open market following his age-25 season.  Tatis’ price tag will already begin to rise significantly next offseason, as he will reach the first of three years of arbitration eligibility.

The Padres therefore have lots of incentive to ink Tatis to a long-term deal, and some common ground could be reached given that Tatis has also reportedly expressed interest in an extension.  Locking in a life-changing fortune so early in his career would naturally have appeal to Tatis, and because he is so young, he has plenty of time to land at least one more major deal later in his career.  Signing even a seven-year extension now would allow Tatis to still reach free agency before his age-29 season.

With both the COVID-19 pandemic and potential labor strife next winter hanging over the sport, Tatis could also prefer to get some guaranteed financial security sooner rather than later.  On the flip side, Lin wonders if Tatis and his representatives would perhaps prefer to wait another year before seriously diving into extension talks, since by then there will be more clarity about both the state of public health and how baseball’s financial structure will be altered by a new collective bargaining agreement.

Since most extension negotiations usually don’t take place until later in the offseason, Preller’s more immediate attention will be focused on adding new pieces to the roster.  The GM said the club is continuing to explore pitching options, and has “looked at it both ways,” in terms of adding either front-of-the-rotation ace type or perhaps more of a mid-rotation type.

“I think it’s just kind of going to depend on the individual pitcher that’s involved, and then obviously, what potentially we’d have to do from a money standpoint or from a trade standpoint,” Preller said.  “Weighing that in versus what we see the impactability of our own talent and when that will happen.”

Dinelson Lamet’s status will also surely factor into San Diego’s plans, as the right-hander missed the end of the season (and the playoffs) due to biceps tightness, and was undergoing platelet-rich plasma therapy on his throwing elbow.  While Preller noted that the Padres won’t fully know how ready Lamet is until Spring Training, “in terms of the tests that he’s passing right now — all his workouts, picking up a baseball, beginning his throwing program to start the offseason — he’s reporting that he’s in a very similar spot to where he was last year, which is a good place,” Preller said.

Padres, Fernando Tatis Jr. Interested In Discussing Extension

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San Diego Padres GM A.J. Preller unsurprisingly expressed interest in signing superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. to a long-term extension. Tatis has interest as well, though the two sides haven’t yet begun negotiations, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Preller did suggest that negotiations could kick off before too long, however.

There aren’t a ton of pertinent precedents for a potential Tatis extension, but there is one. Braves superstar centerfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. signed a 8-year, $100MM contract extension with the Braves after one season in the majors. Acuña was coming off a Rookie of the Year season in which he slashed .293/.366/.552 for 4.2 rWAR in his age-20 season.

Acuña’s deal is largely viewed as a bargain, and Tatis could arguably that he’s off to an even more impressive start to his MLB career. Tatis produced 4.1 rWAR over just 84 games as a 20-year-old in 2019. This year he provided an appropriate step up as he posted 2.5 rWAR, roughly the equivalent of 6.75 WAR over a full 162-game season. Through 143 career games, Tatis owns a triple slash of .301/.374/.582.

The two situations are analogous, however, as both Tatis and Acuña have led their teams back into the postseason at a young age. They’re also two of MLB’s brightest and most popular stars. Tatis now has more major league service time than Acuña did at the time of his deal, however, raising the price of any potential contract agreement. Tatis Jr. won’t be arbitration eligible until 2022, with free agency set for following the 2024 season. Both players debuted in their age-20 season, and both players field premium up-the-middle positions. Both Tatis and Acuña have also galvanized their fan bases during their short time in the majors.

There haven’t been many extensions signed this season league-wide, which is partially due to the revenue lost because of coronavirus and the uncertainty of future revenue streams. But there also hasn’t been a ton of time for these sorts of negotiations, notes Preller. As the playoffs wind to a close, teams may again have a moment to explore their internal options. The Padres would certainly love to extend Tatis Jr., but again, it would be rare for a player of his caliber to sign this early. Tatis Jr. is represented by MVP Sports Group, who also reps teammate Manny Machado.

Ian Gibaut, Chris Woodward Suspended Over Machado/Tatis Incident

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AUG. 19: Gibaut’s suspension was reduced to two games and he has dropped his appeal, the Rangers announced. He’ll begin serving the ban tonight.

AUG. 18: Major League Baseball has suspended Rangers right-hander Ian Gibaut three games and manager Chris Woodward one game for a controversial incident Monday that saw Gibaut throw behind Padres star Manny Machado.  Gibaut and Woodward were also both fined.  Gibaut is appealing his suspension while Woodward will serve his suspension for today’s game.

During Monday’s game, the Padres were leading the Rangers 10-3 in the eighth inning when Fernando Tatis Jr. came to the plate with the bases loaded.  Tatis swung on a 3-0 pitch from Juan Nicasio that resulted in a grand slam, prompting Gibaut to replace Nicasio on the mound.  Machado was the next batter up after Tatis, and Gibaut’s first pitch to Machado was behind the third baseman’s back.  No ejections or warnings were issued after the pitch, though the umpiring crew did meet on the field to discuss the situation.

After the game, Woodward told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell and other reporters that wasn’t pleased by Tatis’ swing.  “There’s a lot of unwritten rules that are constantly being challenged in today’s game.  I didn’t like it, personally,” Woodward said.  “You’re up by seven [runs] in the eighth inning; it’s typically not a good time to swing 3-0.  It’s kind of the way we were all raised in the game.  But, like I said, the norms are being challenged on a daily basis, so — just because I don’t like it doesn’t mean it’s not right.”

Even Tatis’ own manager Jayce Tingler wasn’t entirely pleased, noting that Tatis missed a take sign on the pitch.  “He’s young, a free spirit and focused and all those things. That’s the last thing that we’ll ever take away. But it’s a learning opportunity,” Tingler said.

Woodward and Tingler each received widespread criticism for their comments, with Woodward’s citation of baseball’s “unwritten rules” drawing particular derision.  Many current and past players (including such legends as Reggie Jackson and Johnny Bench) have defended Tatis, with Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty providing perhaps the most succinct counterpoint: “Don’t like it… don’t fall behind 3-0, pretty simple.“

The suspensions to both Gibaut and Woodward indicate a clear feeling on the part of the league that the pitch to Machado was intentional, and to that end, it is somewhat surprising that Woodward only received one game (if the league felt he directed Gibaut to throw behind Machado).  MLB has taken a generally stricter line for on-field discipline this year as part of their health and safety procedures, though this particular incident didn’t lead to anything like a brawl or even an open argument between the two teams.

How Did The White Sox Trade Fernando Tatis Jr.?!

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You have to give the White Sox credit for signing Fernando Tatis Jr. in the first place.  They snagged the 16-year-old as an international signing out of the Dominican Republic back in 2015 for a bonus of $700K, years after Marco Paddy had restored credibility to the team’s efforts in Latin America following the David Wilder scandal.

At the time, MLB.com ranked Tatis Jr. 30th in his class, which also included Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto, and Cristian Pache.  The biggest available international player was Cuban star Yoan Moncada, at a time when a team could elect to exceed its bonus pool and pay a 100% tax, as the Red Sox did.

Tatis’ father had played 11 years in the Majors, cracking 113 home runs, so the bloodlines were strong.  In their scouting report, MLB.com said, “Scouts like Tatis Jr.’s swing, his strong arm and his fluid actions on defense. He’s shown decent arm strength and raw power to his pull side. Tatis Jr.’s knack for barreling up balls and his repeatable swing have also impressed evaluators.”  Jeff Buchanan of FutureSox wrote, “Tatis clearly doesn’t have the same upside as [White Sox top 2015 international signing] Franklin Reyes, but his well-rounded skillset, high baseball IQ and professional mentality mean he likely comes with less risk than Reyes and is a better bet to maximize his potential as a possible everyday player.” 

Tatis Jr. was certainly an interesting July 2 international signing, but according to Dennis Lin’s excellent oral history in The Athletic, the Blue Jays, Indians, and Rays were the only other teams to attempt to sign him, which is why he didn’t land the multi-million bonuses others in his class did.  If teams had an inkling of what Tatis Jr. would become, he would have signed for ten times as much money.  Most of these players were six years away from the Majors, and projecting that far out is very difficult.  Many of these guys could have been traded for a veteran starting pitcher the year after signing and we would have never spoken of it again.

11 months passed between the date of Tatis Jr. signing and the date of his fateful trade to the Padres.  How much height the infielder gained in the interim could develop into a tall tale one day, but in Lin’s article, the player himself said he added two inches.  Padres GM A.J. Preller, then a member of the Rangers’ front office, had seen Tatis Jr. multiple times before the player signed with Chicago.  Members of the Padres’ front office observed him at least twice after he joined the White Sox organization: during the Arizona Instructional League in the fall of 2015, and again during extended spring training in 2016.  So Tatis Jr. was on the Padres’ radar as the 2016 season progressed.

Padres executive chairman Ron Fowler told Lin that the team’s efforts to trade veteran starter James Shields “became accelerated” after the pitcher endured a May 31st, 2016 drubbing in Seattle in which he allowed ten earned runs while recording eight outs.  In the outing, Shields’ ERA jumped from 3.06 to 4.28.  The day after that start from Shields, Fowler went on the radio to term it an “an embarrassment to the team, an embarrassment to him.”  After trading both Shields and outfielder Matt Kemp, Fowler would throw shade in saying, “We made a conscious decision to ship them out because we want people that are prepared to improve.”

So if the James Shields trade talks picked up around June 1st, 2016, where did the White Sox stand at that point?  The club’s record stood at 29-25, two games behind the Royals in the AL Central and firmly in the Wild Card race as well.  According to FanGraphs, the White Sox had a 33.8% chance of making the playoffs, which was actually better than teams that sat ahead of them like the Royals and Orioles.  The White Sox hadn’t reached the playoffs since 2008, and GM Rick Hahn was justified in seeking reinforcements.

At the time, the White Sox starting rotation was fronted by Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Carlos Rodon.  Free agent signing Mat Latos held down the fourth spot, but had a 6.54 ERA over his previous six starts.  The club had recently released longtime rotation fixture John Danks, eating significant money in the process.  Miguel Gonzalez was able to step on and temporarily hold the fifth starter job, with Hahn looking to make an acquisition.

As Hahn put it to Jon Greenberg of The Athletic, “That was a move, in going out to get James, that was due to the lack of depth in the organization. We did not have internal answers when (John) Danks wasn’t getting back to a form that was serviceable and (Mat) Latos was taking on water and regressing back to his more likely form for the rest of the season. So we had to do something stem the flow here. And that’s very fair to say that transaction is sort of emblematic of that past way of doing things and trying to fix it on the fly.”  The team’s lack of rotation depth didn’t come out of nowhere, though, as depth seemed thin even prior to the season.

In just about every write-up of the Shields trade at the time, Tatis Jr. was listed after Erik Johnson, the other prospect the Padres acquired.  Johnson, a 26-year-old righty, had been drafted by the White Sox in the second round out of UC Berkeley back in 2011.  Coming through Chicago’s farm system, Johnson was seen as a potential No. 3 starter.  His value peaked prior to the 2014 season, when Keith Law (then of ESPN) ranked him as the 59th-best prospect in baseball. But Johnson failed to stick in the White Sox rotation from 2014 up until the trade.

Could the White Sox have acquired Shields for different prospects?  According to Preller in Lin’s article, “We talked about two of their top prospects. They weren’t going to move those guys. And we talked about Tatis as well. You got the sense that he might be the guy they would talk about in the initial conversations, just because he was further away and hadn’t played a game yet.”  The top White Sox prospects prior to the 2016 were Tim Anderson and Carson Fulmer, as they had shipped off Frankie Montas in the offseason in the Todd Frazier deal.  At the time of the Shields trade, Anderson was less than a week away from supplanting Jimmy Rollins to become the team’s starting shortstop.  Fulmer had been drafted eighth overall by the White Sox the previous year, and it would be ridiculous revisionist history to suggest they should have had the foresight to trade him instead of Tatis Jr.

Was it reasonable for the White Sox to expect a midseason boost from Shields?  MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth and Connor Byrne wrote at the time:

Shields, 34, isn’t the pitcher he was during his best years with the Rays and Royals, but he remains a competent innings eater who’s on pace to exceed the 200-inning plateau and surpass the 30-start barrier for the 11th straight season. That aside, Shields does come with red flags. After a dreadful final start with the Padres, Shields’ ERA (4.28) is at its highest since 2010. Further, his strikeout rate – which spiked to a personal-best 9.61 per nine innings last year – has regressed to 7.62 (closer to his 7.84 career average) and the control that he displayed in his earlier days has declined. Shields’ walk rate is at 3.61 per nine innings, which is in line with last year’s 3.6, and his velocity has dipped. To Shields’ credit, he has long been a capable ground-ball generator – at 48 percent this year, there’s no sign he’s slowing down in that area. That should help his cause as he shifts to the hitter-friendly confines of U.S. Cellular Field, but he does have the third-highest home run rate among qualified starters since last season (16.9 percent).

While Shields may have been an innings eater at that point in his career, no one expected him to post a 6.77 ERA for the remainder of the season.  It wasn’t crazy to view him as a useful veteran addition.  Plus, the Padres kicked in over $30MM, more than half of the money remaining on his contract.  To the White Sox, Shields looked to be an affordable rotation piece for the remainder of 2016 as well as the ’17 and ’18 seasons.

The White Sox pounced on Shields early, basically kicking off the 2016 trading season.  Later that summer, the Padres would also go on to trade their best starter, Drew Pomeranz, as well as Andrew Cashner.  The Orioles picked up Wade Miley, the Dodgers acquired Rich Hill, the Pirates snagged Ivan Nova, the Angels and Twins swapped Ricky Nolasco and Hector Santiago, and the Blue Jays got Scott Feldman.  There are many alternate universes where the White Sox acquire someone other than Shields, and who knows whether Tatis Jr. would have been involved.  They also could have plugged in Miguel Gonzalez in June, held off on trades for a month like most teams, and realized they should be sellers rather than buyers.

Hahn has owned the Tatis Jr. trade, calling himself a “jackass” in front of fans and telling MLB.com’s Scott Merkin, “That was probably the last deal we made with having a short-term mindset in mind.  Ultimately when this thing gets right, we are going to once again have a shorter time arising goal with our trades. It doesn’t mean you want to make a deal that haunts you for the long term, obviously.”  Every GM has a trade he’d like to take back.  Around that same time, the Marlins traded Luis Castillo, got him back due to a medical dispute, and then traded him again in the offseason.  It was also the summer where the Dodgers traded Yordan Alvarez, as outlined here.

Though Hahn admitted to Greenberg in 2017, “I probably physically cringe whenever I see a Tatis highlight,” the club embarked on what seems to have been a successful rebuilding effort after the ’16 season.  The White Sox brought in Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, and Michael Kopech in subsequent trades and pounced on Luis Robert in the international market.  Tatis Jr. may always be the one that got away, but an extended playoff run should take the sting off for the White Sox.

For more on the topic of the Tatis Jr. trade, be sure to check out Jeff Todd’s video on our YouTube channel.

Tatis: “Nothing Happening Out There Yet” On Contract Extension

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An extension with star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. was reportedly one of the Padres’ offseason goals, though it doesn’t appear as if much progress has been made on that front.  In a radio interview on the Ben & Woods morning show (Twitter link), Tatis said he and his representatives at the MVP Sports Group would “talk about it if the Padres come with something, but there’s nothing happening out there yet.”

While Padres general manager A.J. Preller was “definitely not looking to comment publicly” on the status of negotiations during his own Ben & Woods interview (Twitter link), Preller indicated that the club did want to “explore every option and possibility” in terms of a potential long-term agreement with Tatis.  “We’ll sit down with him and his representatives when the time is right here, and kind of get a feel for where they’re at and see if there’s something there,” Preller said.

The fact that talks have seemingly yet to truly begin isn’t necessarily a sign that an extension couldn’t still happen before Opening Day or shortly into the season, as many teams don’t turn their attention to extension talks whatsoever until Spring Training.  Of course, there also isn’t any immediate urgency to get a deal done since Tatis is under team control through the 2024 season — the shortstop has two remaining years as a pre-arbitration player, and then three seasons of arbitration eligibility.

Gaining some additional control (not to mention cost certainty) over Tatis would certainly be of interest to the Padres, as Tatis has one of the brightest futures of any player in the sport.  The 21-year-old is coming off a rookie season that saw him hit .317/.379/.590 with 22 home runs over 372 plate appearances.  This was despite a pair of injured list stints due to a hamstring strain, and then a back strain that ended Tatis’ season in mid-August.

Should Tatis continue to perform at this high level over the next five years, he would be on track for free agency heading into his age-26 season and be in line for a monster payday on the open market, more than likely over the $400MM threshold.  San Diego knows a thing or two about spending big on a 26-year-old free agent, having just dropped $300MM on Manny Machado (another MVP Sports Group client, of note) last winter.  Locking up even one or two of Tatis’ free agent years as part of a long-term deal could end up being quite a bargain for the Padres, and by that same token, Tatis could be open to an extension that gives him financial security now, yet also doesn’t prevent him from free agency before his 30th birthday.

Some larger factors could also be at play, as The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (subscription required) raised the possibility that Tatis and other younger players might hold off on extensions “with the idea that the next collective bargaining agreement will change the structures of club control and free agency.”  The current CBA expires in December 2021, so assuming a new labor agreement is in place prior to the start of the 2022 season, Tatis would still have three years remaining as a Padre and potentially a new range of contractual options to consider from a negotiating perspective.  Perhaps as a nod to how a new CBA would impact the status quo, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reported yesterday that multiple teams were looking to lock up pre-arbitration players to extensions in the next few weeks.

Padres Not Playing At Top Of Free Agent Market

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The Padres, along with the Braves, have thus far born the brunt of the burden in stoking the hot stove fire, but San Diego doesn’t anticipate being players at the top of the free agent market, per The San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee. Given the enormity of the task ahead of them – dethroning the Dodgers from their perch atop the NL West – it was natural to assume GM A.J. Preller might go for the hat trick and score another big ticket free agent. Plus, hometown kid and confirmed playoff ace Stephen Strasburg is taking meetings, and the Padres could use a slide-stopping ace to stabilize their young rotation. But alas, the Padres don’t plan on meeting Scott Boras about either Gerrit Cole or Strasburg.

Two nine-figure free agents and the promotions of top prospects like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Chris Paddack could not stop the string of losing season for the Padres in 2019. They stretched their streak to nine while reaching 90 losses for the fourth consecutive year. The good news for Padres fans is that even though they don’t plan on attracting another top tier free agent – help is on the way. Per Acee’s sources, Preller doesn’t feel compelled to sign a top free agent ace is because he is confident in their ability to grow them from the ground up. Both MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino have the potential to join Paddack atop the rotation in the next couple years.

Gore, 21 by Opening Day, made five starts in Double-A after blistering High-A with a 1.02 ERA in 79 1/3 innings. That’s not a typo. The young southpaw gave up just 36 hits, 20 walks, and 9 earned runs while playing for the Lake Elsinore Storm. He struck out 110 batters, good for 12.5 K/9. He is baseball’s 4th best prospect per Baseball America and MLB.com, #5 by Fangraphs.

Patino ranks as the 30th best prospect in the sport by MLB.com, 26th by Fangraphs, 29th by Baseball America. Though eight months younger than Gore, they’re on the same development track as of now. Patino registered a 2.69 ERA in High-A while little more than four years younger than league average.

Needless to say, the future is bright in San Diego, but there are pressing concerns for the present still on the docket. Preller is on the lookout for at least one reliever, potentially a starting catcher, while adding another rotation arm remains in the mix. Financially, it’s tight. They may look to shed some salary in the coming days. The payroll has already climbed north of $140MM. Per Cot’s Contracts, they ran a $97MM payroll on Opening Day last year and only once have they opened a season with a payroll over $100MM (2015).

Padres Will Attempt To Extend Fernando Tatis Jr.

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The Padres will attempt to work out a long-term deal with budding superstar Fernando Tatis Jr., according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The timing of negotiations and the organization’s spending tolerances aren’t known, but it seems the club will make a real push to agree to terms before the start of the 2020 season.

Tatis is exceptionally youthful; he won’t celebrate his 21st birthday until the new year. And he’s exceptionally talented, as evidenced by a thrilling rookie campaign. The debut effort was cut short by injury, but not before Tatis turned in 372 innings of .317/.379/.590 hitting with 22 home runs and a boat load of highlight reel contributions. He could stand to smooth out his glovework and cut back on the strikeouts, but that showing was a full-blown success regardless.

At this time last year, you could’ve said many of the same things about precocious Braves slugger Ronald Acuna Jr., who ended up signing a stunning $100MM extension that gave the team control over ten seasons of likely superstardom. That pact entered an unprecedented realm for early-career contracts, but it was also arguably the easiest nine-figure deal ever signed by a professional baseball team.

Acee rightly notes the Acuna contract as a highly relevant comp in the case of Tatis. No doubt the team will try to frame it as a ceiling, or at worst a direct comp, while nudging Tatis back down toward the other major contracts inked by burgeoning young stars last winter — the $43MM deal between Eloy Jimenez and the White Sox and the $35MM agreement the Braves scored with Ozzie Albies.

But there’s no question Tatis belongs in the Acuna stratosphere as a player. And his reps at MVP Sports can make an argument that he ought to earn more — supposing his injury woes are just a blip, at least. First and foremost, the Acuna contract doesn’t need to function in any way to limit what Tatis can and should demand for his own services. If he’s interested in a deal, Tatis can do his own math on his future free agent earnings and whether and how he’s willing to discount them. It’s eminently arguable that Acuna is undercompensated for his immense ability; Tatis doesn’t need to make the same bargain.

Then there’s the fact that Tatis is a season ahead in the service-time game than Acuna was this time last year, owing to the Friars’ decision to put him on the Opening Day roster in 2020. That surprising decision by the San Diego organization last spring was a notable gambit that could factor heavily in this new contract push. It gave leverage to Tatis, who’s a full year closer to the open market than he would have been had the team waited a few weeks to call him up. But the risky ploy may also have been part of the team’s now-evident effort to do everything it can to ensconce Tatis as a franchise-defining star for the bulk of his career. The goodwill generated by the on-time promotion might help the team secure a monster contract that’s laden with value for the organization. The tens of millions more it could in theory cost to get the deal done? That’s secondary to the ability to complete such a pact with a player of this kind.

Padres Notes: Tatis, Paddack, Mejia

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The latest from America’s Finest City, where a midseason malaise will keep the long-suffering Padres out of postseason play for the 13th consecutive season . . .

  • Wunderkind Fernando Tatis Jr., who’s hit the shelf with a serious injury for the third time in the last calendar year, has no plans to change his hyper-aggressive manner on the field, writes MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. “No, absolutely not,” Tatis responded when posed with the question. “If it’s part of it, it’s part of it. But I’m not going to change my game at all.” The team, though, won’t sit by in deference: “Nobody’s looking to change him much or at all,”  Padres manager Andy Green noted. “But there will be moments in time where he learns, through time, that he doesn’t need to take a chance. That’s not necessarily saying he’s going to play soft or step off the gas pedal. He’ll play very similar to the way he always has. That’s the way we want him to play. He will continue to learn and grow the more he plays.” A public position slightly hedged typically means a great deal more beneath the surface, so it’s almost certain the club’ll place caution at the center of its future messages to the young star. Tatis’ .317/.379/.590 line was slightly inflated by an obviously unsustainable .410 BABIP this season, with Statcast pegging the rookie as the NL’s luckiest hitter in ’19, but it was nonetheless a banner debut for ESPN’s #1 overall prospect entering the season.
  • Fellow rookie Chris Paddack, whose relentless first-half assault on National League hitters has been thwarted by further exposure and the absence of a quality third offering, isn’t on a concrete innings limit, as Cassavell explores in a separate piece. A 2016 Tommy John Surgery limited the righty to just 90 IP in 2018, but the club has no plans to clot his late-season leak: “That’s not where my head is,” manager Andy Green said. “Get him back on the bump, attack again, overcome. Obviously if there’s something going on, that would change my mind quickly. But I think health-wise, he feels good.” After a solid first-half showing, in which the 23-year-old’s typically dominant K/BB was marred only by a 1.31 HR/9 mark, Paddack has been drilled in 35 post-all-star-break innings, allowing nine homers and as many doubles en route to a .507 slugging percentage against and 5.56 FIP. The former eighth rounder out of a Texas high school is author to perhaps the most impressive minor-league numbers since the days of Tim Lincecum, but may find his relentless zone-pounding in need of curation.
  • Catcher Francisco Mejia, who appears now to have wrestled full-time duties away from incumbent Austin Hedges, looks to be finding his stride in the season’s second half. The 23-year-old’s 142 wRC+, on the back of a much-improved 7.5% BB rate, ranks fifth among MLB catchers over that span. The once-undiscerning backstop has also sliced his strikeout rate nearly 10% from last season’s 30.6% mark, and is now chasing pitches at a far-more-respectable rate. Mejia will still need to improve his much-maligned (in prospect circles) defense to fulfill his lofty upside, but the Friars may well have found their backstop of the future.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Expected To Miss Remainder Of Season

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Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. is expected to miss the remainder of the season, manager Andy Green tells reporters including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). The exceptional rookie is dealing with a back issue that drove him to the injured list earlier today and is evidently more serious than had originally been hoped.

It’s exceedingly disappointing news for fans of the San Diego organization, who have long awaited the arrival of a superstar of just this kind. Tatis has more than justified the hype that preceded his ascension to the majors at the outset of the season.

Through 372 plate appearances, Tatis carries an eye-popping .317/.379/.590 batting line with 22 home runs and 16 steals. He’s not carrying the greatest strikeout and walk numbers, lagging the league average in both areas, but has had little trouble making loud contact. Tatis is also a big positive on the bases and has shown a flair for the dramatic in the field — even if metrics aren’t glowing in their overall evaluation of his fielding performance.

Details on the injury still aren’t fully known, but it’s not difficult to see the reasoning behind the pessimistic outlook. There isn’t much reason to push a rehab schedule to get Tatis back in the bigs for a brief stretch, particularly if it means risking a more significant injury. The Padres aren’t going to crack the postseason this year regardless.

That said, it’s still a tough pill to swallow. The Friars drew ample attention when they carried Tatis on the Opening Day roster, passing on a chance to gain an extra season of control by holding him down for a few weeks to open the season. That was a questionable, if ultimately admirable, decision that obviously paid off in some ways even if it means some future sacrifices. The club will now lose the chance to draw fans to the yard to see Tatis over the next six weeks. Regardless, Tatis is one of the most exciting and most valuable player assets in the game.

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