Padres Designate José Azocar For Assignment
The Padres announced that they have reinstated outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. from the 60-day injured list, as previously reported. In corresponding moves, they optioned outfielder Bryce Johnson and designated outfielder José Azocar for assignment.
Azocar, 28, has been largely serving as a speed-and-defense depth player for the Padres in recent years. He has appeared in 214 games over the 2022-24 seasons but only been sent to the plate 397 times. He has produced a batting line of .243/.287/.322 in those trips to the plate, which translates to a 74 wRC+. But he has stolen 18 bases while also producing eight Outs Above Average and two Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield.
The Friars have frequently optioned him to the minors in that time but he will be out of options after this year. That would have made it harder for the Padres to keep him on the 40-man, so he’s been bumped off today. He also hasn’t helped his case much with the bat in the minors, as he has slashed .276/.309/.402 in 438 plate appearances at Triple-A since the start of 2023, production that leads to a wRC+ of 70.
Since we are in the post-deadline part of the schedule, the Friars will have to put Azocar on waivers in the coming days. If any club has interest in Azocar’s particular skill set, they could put in a claim and then keep Azocar on optional assignment for the rest of the year, though he will have less roster flexibility in the long run.
Padres To Reinstate Fernando Tatis Jr.
Outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is going to be reinstated from the 60-day injured list today, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The outfielder is currently on the 60-day IL, so the Friars will need to make a move to open a 40-man roster spot for him.
Tatis, 25, was having a strong season before his injury interruption. He hit .279/.354/.468 in 80 games, producing a wRC+ of 133, while also stealing eight bases and getting defensive grades around league average. He had already accrued 2.3 wins above replacement, in the eyes of FanGraphs, in roughly half a season before suffering a right femoral stress reaction and landing on the injured list.
His return is surely good news for the Padres, though they will now have to make some tough decisions about playing time since so much of their lineup has been performing well. David Peralta has taken over right field while Tatis has been out and currently has a .272/.335/.426 line and 117 wRC+ on the year. Peralta could be moved over to left field but Jurickson Profar is having an even better year, with a .280/.382/.459 slash and 140 wRC+.
The designated hitter spot doesn’t really provide a solution either, as Luis Arráez is in there most days. He is playing through a torn ligament in his thumb and his production is down a bit from previous years, but his .309/.343/.384 line is still above league average, leading to a 106 wRC+. The club could put him at first base but that might exacerbate his thumb issue and Jake Cronenworth is having a solid season there anyway, hitting .249/.326/.408 for a 110 wRC+.
Cronenworth could move to second but the club has Xander Bogaerts there. Bogaerts isn’t having an amazing season overall but has been far better since returning from an IL stint due to a shoulder fracture. He’s hit .325/.360/.431 since coming off the IL for a 124 wRC+. Moving Bogaerts to shortstop while Ha-Seong Kim is on the IL could theoretically help with the logjam but Kim isn’t expected to be out for much longer.
It’s a good problem for the club to have and perhaps it will allow manager Mike Shildt to give all these players a bit of extra rest in the coming weeks. The Padres are tied with the Diamondbacks for the first and second Wild Card spots in the National League. Atlanta is in the third spot, three games back of San Diego and Arizona, with the Mets another game behind Atlanta. That doesn’t guarantee the Padres anything but perhaps everyone can get scattered off-days here and there to stay fresh for the final games on the schedule and then the postseason.
Padres Select Mason McCoy
The Padres announced they have selected the contract of infielder Mason McCoy. Infielder Matthew Batten has been optioned to Triple-A El Paso in a corresponding active roster. To open a 40-man spot for McCoy, outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. was transferred to the 60-day injured list. Tatis has already been on the IL for 60 days, so he can return as soon as he’s healthy. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune relayed the McCoy and Batten moves on X prior to the official announcement.
McCoy, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Padres in the offseason. He has played 108 games for Triple-A El Paso this year with a .260/.329/.382 batting line, which translates to a wRC+ of 79, indicating he’s been 21% below league average.
He has never been much of a hitter, having slashed .239/.318/.400 for a wRC+ of 80 in 458 Triple-A games since the start of 2021. His major league work consists of just one plate appearance with the Blue Jays last year, though he did get into six games overall, mostly as a defensive replacement. He has a reputation as an excellent defender and frequently racks up double-digit steal totals, including 25 this year.
The Padres recently lost shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to the injured list, which has moved utility player Tyler Wade into regular shortstop action. McCoy can provide the Padres with depth all over, as he has played all the infield positions to the left of first base, in addition to some outfield work. Based on his skills, he might be ticketed for a lot of late-game work, either on defense or on the basepaths. He still has a full slate of options and just a few days of service time, so the Padres could keep him around for a while if they so choose.
As for Tatis, as mentioned, this is just a formality. He landed on the IL June 24, retroactive to June 22, due to a right femoral stress reaction. Today’s transfer is retroactive to that June 22 date, meaning he can be reinstated at any point. It was reported earlier this week that he could be back in the middle of next month.
Padres Notes: Kim, Tatis, De Vries
The Padres were dealt a scare yesterday when Ha-Seong Kim was forced out of their loss to the Rockies after jamming his throwing shoulder diving into first base. San Diego sent the shortstop for imaging today and came away encouraged by the initial results.
“(Early testing) seems to be mostly favorable, but there’s zero timeline to it,” manager Mike Shildt told reporters before tonight’s series opener with the Twins (via the MLB.com injury tracker). “We’re initially fairly pleased with what it looks like. We’re still gathering information.” The Friars did not place Kim on the injured list, though he’s not available for tonight’s game.
Tyler Wade drew into the lineup at shortstop tonight. He’d seemingly be the favorite for playing time if Kim requires an IL stint. Wade provides speed and defensive versatility but limited offensive upside. He entered tonight’s game with a .241/.318/.259 batting line in 134 trips to the plate. Wade only has two extra-base hits (both doubles) all season. Kim is not an impact hitter, yet he’s far more of a threat than Wade. The South Korea native has 11 homers with a roughly average .223/.330/.370 slash across 470 plate appearances.
Kim has avoided the injured list in each of his first four MLB seasons. That durability will be a major selling point for the 28-year-old when he hits free agency during the upcoming offseason. There’s technically an $8MM mutual option on his deal with San Diego, but Kim will surely decline his end in favor of a $2MM buyout and look for a longer-term deal.
If Kim does require his first MLB injured list stint, he’ll join Fernando Tatis Jr. as lineup fixtures on the shelf. Tatis has been down for nearly two months after sustaining a stress reaction in his right leg. Dennis Lin of the Athletic wrote this evening that club officials have suggested Tatis could be out into the middle of next month (though there’s still no official timetable). The injury halted an All-Star campaign. Tatis was one of the most productive outfielders in the National League during the first half of the season, drilling 14 homers with a .279/.354/.468 line in 80 games.
The Friars have relied on David Peralta as their right fielder since Tatis went down. The 37-year-old veteran has been a surprisingly strong offensive contributor, running a .269/.331/.438 slash in 175 trips to the plate. Peralta is coming off a well below-average season with the Dodgers and wasn’t hitting well in Triple-A early this year.
In a bit of minor league injury news, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that top prospect Leodalis De Vries suffered a right shoulder strain that seems likely to end his season. While it’s not believed to be a long-term issue, the Low-A season only runs into the second week of September. De Vries was widely perceived as the most talented prospect in the most recent international signing class. The Dominican Republic native has only elevated his stock in the past few months, reaching Low-A while playing the entire season at age 17. The switch-hitting shortstop has turned in a .237/.361/.441 mark with 11 homers against much older competition. The Padres reportedly made him (and top catching prospect Ethan Salas) more or less untouchable at the trade deadline.
Padres Select Tirso Ornelas
The Padres have selected outfielder Tirso Ornelas to their 40-man roster, MLBTR has confirmed. The move was previously listed on the club’s transactions tracker at MLB.com. The Padres have had an open spot on their 40-man roster since Yu Darvish was placed on the restricted list earlier this month, so no corresponding move will be required at this time.
Ornelas, 24, was an international signing out of Mexico, with the Padres giving him a $1.5MM signing bonus back in 2016. He put up a strong showing in Rookie ball in 2017, hitting .276/.399/.408 and getting himself some attention from prospect evaluators.
Baseball America listed him as the #31 prospect in the club’s system going into 2018 and he was on that outlet’s top 30 list for three years after that. FanGraphs ranked him as the #116 prospect in all of baseball going into 2019, highlighting his natural abilities at the plate.
Ornelas had a dismal year in 2019, slashing .217/.303/.279 across Rookie ball and High-A. Going into 2020, Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs mentioned some swing changes that had negative results, but he still gave Ornelas praise and ranked him 19th in the system.
More recently, Ornelas seems to have gotten things back on track. After the minors were canceled in 2020, Ornelas put up some passable numbers in 2021 and 2022. Last year, he had a great showing in Double-A, with 11 home runs in 72 games. He also walked at a 14.1% clip and was only struck out in 18.9% of his plate appearances. His .284/.381/.473 line at that level translated to a wRC+ of 126.
He also got into 55 Triple-A games last year with less success, as his .285/.358/.425 line at that level led to a 96 wRC+ in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. But he’s been far better at that level here in 2024, with 12 home runs through 74 contests, a 10.3% walk rate and 17.1% strikeout rate. His .316/.390/.515 batting line is 24% better than league average, per wRC+.
It hasn’t been a straight line but Ornelas has found a winding road to the majors since being signed by the Padres almost a decade ago. Just a few days back, Longenhagen and Travis Ice released their list of top Padres’ prospects for this year at FanGraphs with Ornelas in the #12 slot. The report suggests the Statcast data isn’t as impressive as the raw numbers with Ornelas, but still he’s still viewed as a viable big leaguer.
Ornelas has played a bit of center field and first base but has mostly been in the outfield corners in his career. The Padres have Fernando Tatis Jr. on the injured list due to a right femoral stress reaction. Per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune on X, Tatis has begun playing catch and swinging a bat but he still has some hurdles to clear before he can rejoin the club.
Without Tatis, the Friars have a corner outfield mix consisting of Jurickson Profar, David Peralta and Bryce Johnson. Profar is having a stunning career year at the age of 31 and is firmly implanted in left field. Peralta was just below league average at the plate over the 2021-23 period and is hitting .250/.313/.330 in 2024 for a wRC+ of 90. Johnson has mostly been in a bench role, with just one start since July 2.
Perhaps Ornelas can carve out some playing time in there during the final few months of 2024 or in the long term. Peralta and Profar are both impending free agents, so there’s lots of room next to Tatis and Jackson Merrill in the future outfield plans.
Padres Notes: Arraez, Tatis, Musgrove
The Padres completed their first half with a 6-3 loss to the Braves, and San Diego enters the All-Star break with a 50-49 record and a +12 run differential. While the National League wild card race is still very crowded, the Padres are a game out of a playoff spot and still in good position to make a run in the second half, though they’ll need good health and continued production from their star players to make it happen.
With this in mind, Luis Arraez told reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune) today that he won’t be playing in Tuesday’s All-Star Game. Arraez was named to the NL’s bench squad and will still attend the festivities in Arlington since his parents and sister will be in attendance at the Midsummer Classic for the first time, but the infielder won’t be taking the field because “I need the rest” for his injured left thumb.
Arraez jammed his thumb while sliding into third base during the Padres’ 9-7 win over the Nationals on June 25, and has since been trying to play through some serious discomfort whenever he fields the ball or takes a swing. Scans haven’t revealed any structural damage to the thumb, but Arraez recently told Acee and company that he has been wrapping the base of his thumb for every game.
“I don’t feel 100 percent. But every time I touch the line, I want to give 100 percent to the manager and to my teammates,” Arraez said.
It is a testament to Arraez’s toughness and ability that he has still continued to hit even while playing through this pain, even if his power has been even more limited by his thumb injury. Arraez is batting .309/.321/.346 over 56 plate appearances in the 13 games he has played since hurting his thumb, yet only two of his 17 hits have been for extra bases (both doubles). Though Arraez is known for his contact hitting moreso than his power, that .346 slugging percentage is well below the .427 career mark he posted in his first five MLB seasons with the Twins and Marlins.
Fernando Tatis Jr. is also hoping to take a step towards getting back onto the field when he undergoes an MRI during the All-Star break. Tatis was placed on the 10-day injured list on June 22 due to a right femoral stress reaction, and told The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and other reporters on Friday that he was no longer feeling any pain in his right leg. This is good news considering the uncertain nature of the injury, though while Tatis said he will “definitely” play again in 2024, he didn’t have any other updates on when exactly he might be able to return.
The fact that the injury was potentially seen as season-ending is certainly a concern, and itself perhaps a sign that Tatis isn’t out of the woods of being on a path to full fitness. The upcoming MRI will potentially shed some light on a recovery timetable, and for now, Tatis’ baseball-related activity has been limited to only dry swings.
Moving from lineup injuries to rotation injuries, Joe Musgrove is slated for a full bullpen session on Wednesday. Musgrove is eligible to return from the 60-day IL when his minimum absence time is up in late July, but his return from bone spurs in his right elbow will surely be delayed into August since the righty is only just in the early stages of his throwing progression. As per Acee, Musgrove will limit himself to throwing only fastballs in his first couple of bullpen sessions.
Between this IL stint and another visit to the 10-day IL due to triceps tendinitis at the beginning of the season, Musgrove has thrown only 49 1/3 innings in 2024, and struggled to a 5.66 ERA. This marks the second straight injury-marred year for Musgrove, as a broken toe and shoulder inflammation limited him to 97 1/3 innings in 2023, though he was more effective when he did pitch, delivering a 3.05 ERA.
Padres Place Fernando Tatis Jr. On Injured List
Monday marked a busy day on the transaction front for the Padres. San Diego placed star right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to June 22, with a right femoral stress reaction. The Friars also optioned outfielder José Azocar and right-hander Jhony Brito to Triple-A El Paso. Filling the three spots on the active roster: outfielder Bryce Johnson, infielder Eguy Rosario and right-hander Adam Mazur. Johnson was not on the 40-man roster, but the Friars have had a vacancy for weeks.
The Tatis injury is the biggest development. Manager Mike Shildt indicated that Tatis could play through the issue but that it wouldn’t fully heal without rest (X link via Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune). The team isn’t providing a specific return timetable, though they expect it to be longer than the minimal 10 days. It’s not out of the question that Tatis is sidelined through the All-Star Break.
Any absence is a major blow to the San Diego lineup. Tatis has been one of the top outfielders in the National League this year. He’s hitting .279/.354/.468 with 14 home runs across 345 plate appearances. Tatis has trimmed his strikeout rate to a career-low 20.6% clip while making hard contact on a massive 53.4% of batted balls. There’s no easy way to replace that kind of production.
It seems the Pads could roll with a David Peralta/Johnson platoon in right field for the time being. The lefty-swinging Peralta is only hitting .204/.306/.241 over 25 games since being called up last month. Johnson, a switch-hitter, has yet to play in the majors this season. San Diego signed the 28-year-old to a minor league deal in January. The former Giant has reached base at a massive .430 clip over 259 plate appearances with El Paso. Johnson is hitting .301 while drawing walks more than 15% of the time. He has also swiped 18 bases in 20 attempts. Johnson is in the lineup against Patrick Corbin this evening.
Mazur returns to the big leagues just three days after being optioned. (He didn’t need to wait the minimal 15 days because he is technically being recalled to replace the injured Tatis.) In actuality, he’s more directly a replacement for Yu Darvish. San Diego anticipated the right-hander returning from the injured list tomorrow. However, Heilbrunn tweets that Darvish is battling some inflammation in his throwing elbow. While Shildt downplayed the long-term concern, he won’t be ready for MLB action tomorrow.
Darvish has been out since May 30 with a strained left groin. The late revelation of a new elbow concern is suboptimal, though it doesn’t seem the Padres are especially alarmed at this point. The injury will force San Diego to turn back to the 23-year-old Mazur for his fifth big league start. The former second-round pick has allowed 14 runs over his first 17 1/3 innings. Mazur has walked more than 19% of batters faced, a bizarre issue for a pitcher who has shown pristine control in his minor league career.
Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune observed (on X) that Johnson was in the clubhouse prior to the team announcement.
Padres Notes: Campusano, Tatis, Profar
The Padres placed catcher Luis Campusano on the 10-day injured list today with a thumb contusion, per a team announcement. Catcher Brett Sullivan was recalled to the big league roster in a corresponding move. Fortunately, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune relays that the Padres don’t expect Campusano’s stay on the shelf to be a long one as it likely won’t require more than a minimum stay of ten days.
After a 2023 season where Campusano was limited to just 49 games by injuries but appeared to break out at the plate with a .319/.356/.491 slash line (good for a 134 wRC+), the former top prospect’s 2024 campaign has been somewhat disappointing. He’s appeared in 66 of the club’s games this year but has mustered only a .234/.282/.371 slash line, which even in the game’s current deflated offensive environment is good for a wRC+ of just 89. That’s hardly a terrible mark for a catcher, but it’s nonetheless a far cry from the offensive output San Diego was surely hoping for after Campusano flashed the ability to be a star-level bat behind the plate when healthy enough to take the field last year.
With the 25-year-old sidelined for the time being, veteran backup Kyle Higashioka figures to step in as the club’s regular behind the plate while Campusano heals up. That leaves backup duties to Sullivan, 30, who had a three-game stint with the Padres earlier this year after making his MLB debut with the club last season. In a 33-game cup of coffee with San Diego last year, Sullivan struggled to a .210/.244/.284 slash line in 86 trips to the plate and appeared to be below average defensively behind the plate both in terms of framing and controlling the running game, although he does have a reputation as a solid blocker.
While Campusano was the only player the Padres placed on the shelf today, he’s not the only member of their starting lineup nursing an noteworthy injury. As MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell explored last night, both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jurickson Profar exited yesterday’s game against the Brewers due to injuries. Profar departed due to tendinitis in his left knee that he’s been dealing with throughout the season to this point, while Tatis left because of a left triceps contusion, though Cassavell notes that he also appeared to be favoring his right quad, which he notes the young star has been playing on despite an injury for weeks.
Both players were out of the lineup today, though Profar told reporters (including Cassavell) today that he would be available off the bench for today’s game against Milwaukee and that he’s been managing the injury successfully to the point where it isn’t getting worse. Manager Mike Shildt, for his part, indicated to reporters last night that the club wasn’t especially concerned about either Profar or Tatis and that both believed they could play through their current ailments.
It’s easy to see why the Padres wouldn’t want to lose either player to the injured list. In 80 games this season, Tatis has looked good with a .279/.354/.468 slash line (139 wRC+) with eight stolen bases, while Profar leads all NL hitters with a .415 on-base percentage and sports an even more impressive 162 wRC+ as the club’s everyday left fielder. With the duo standing out as perhaps the club’s two biggest run producers in a strong lineup that also features Manny Machado, Luis Arraez, and Jackson Merrill, it’s hard to measure how difficult things could get for the Padres if they were to lose Profar and Tatis for a significant period. After all, that strong offense has only translated to a 40-40 record to this point in the season that leaves them in the mix for an NL Wild Card spot among a group of eight teams that are within three games of .500.
Gold Glove Winners Announced
Major League Baseball announced the Gold Glove winners tonight, as selected by a group of managers, coaches, and statistical analysis. Twenty-five percent of the selection total was determined by SABR’s Defensive Index metrics, while the other 75 percent was determined by votes from all 30 managers and up to six coaches from each team. Of the latter pool, managers and coaches were limited to voting on players in their own league, and they weren’t allowed to vote for any players on their own team. The utility Gold Glove wasn’t determined with any votes, but rather via a defensive formula calculated by SABR and Rawlings.
The list of winners…
- AL catcher: Jonah Heim (1st Gold Glove)….finalists: Alejandro Kirk, Adley Rutschman
- AL first base: Nathaniel Lowe (1st)….finalists: Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Rizzo
- AL second base: Andres Gimenez (2nd)….finalists: Mauricio Dubon, Marcus Semien
- AL third base: Matt Chapman (4th)….finalists: Alex Bregman, Jose Ramirez
- AL shortstop: Anthony Volpe (1st)….finalists: Carlos Correa, Corey Seager
- AL left field: Steven Kwan (2nd)….finalists: Austin Hays, Daulton Varsho
- AL center field: Kevin Kiermaier (4th)….finalists: Luis Robert Jr., Julio Rodriguez
- AL right field: Adolis Garcia (1st)….finalists: Kyle Tucker, Alex Verdugo
- AL pitcher: Jose Berrios (1st)….finalists: Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez
- AL utility: Mauricio Dubon (1st)….finalists: Zach McKinstry, Taylor Walls
- NL catcher: Gabriel Moreno (1st)….finalists: Patrick Bailey, J.T. Realmuto
- NL first base: Christian Walker (2nd)….finalists: Freddie Freeman, Carlos Santana
- NL second base: Nico Hoerner (1st)….finalists: Ha-Seong Kim, Bryson Stott
- NL third base: Ke’Bryan Hayes (1st)….finalists: Ryan McMahon, Austin Riley
- NL shortstop: Dansby Swanson (2nd)….finalists: Francisco Lindor, Ezequiel Tovar
- NL left field: Ian Happ (2nd)….finalists: David Peralta, Eddie Rosario
- NL center field: Brenton Doyle (1st)….finalists: Michael Harris II, Alek Thomas
- NL right field: Fernando Tatis Jr. (1st)….finalists: Mookie Betts, Lane Thomas
- NL pitcher: Zack Wheeler (1st)….finalists: Jesus Luzardo, Taijuan Walker
- NL utility: Ha-Seong Kim (1st)….finalists: Mookie Betts, Tommy Edman
The New Fernando Tatis Jr.
Just over a year ago, MLB announced that Padres superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. had been suspended for 80 games after testing positive for Clostebol, a banned performance-enhancing substance. The announcement came as Tatis was on the cusp of making his 2022 season debut after undergoing wrist surgery in March of that year due to a fractured wrist sustained during an offseason motorcycle accident.
The news shook the baseball world, as it was the first time a star player in his prime had been suspended for PED usage since Ryan Braun nearly a decade earlier. A whirlwind of controversy surrounded Tatis throughout the 2022 campaign and in the lead up to his return to the field back in April. Since then, however, Tatis has fallen into the background as discourse surrounding the Padres quickly began to focus on their disappointing season. Down years from Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Yu Darvish captured most of the focus around the baseball world, as well as the strong performances the club has received from Blake Snell, Juan Soto, and Ha-Seong Kim.
Though Tatis hasn’t been at the forefront of most fans’ minds this season, we’re getting a glimpse of what the now-24 year old looks like as a player in the wake of his lost season last year. While he hasn’t been the perennial-MVP candidate he looked to be in his first three seasons as a big leaguer, Tatis has put together a radically different profile this year that nonetheless should keep him in the conversation as one of the best everyday regulars in the sport.
From his debut in 2019 until the 2021 campaign that saw him appear in his first career All Star game and finish third in NL MVP voting, Tatis was the prototypical young superstar. A shortstop with speed and power, Tatis featured the best ISO, the second best wRC+, and the third best fWAR total among MLB regulars during his first three seasons as a big leaguer. Meanwhile, Statcast indicates the youngster boasted sprint speeds and barrel rates in the 95th percentile or better in each of those seasons, clearly indicating he was elite in both respects. On the other side of things, Tatis had a significant problem with strikeouts. His 27.6% strikeout rate in the first three seasons of his career was the 19th-highest among MLB regulars, higher than the likes of Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler.
Flash forward to 2023, and almost all of these things have changed. Most obviously, Tatis is no longer a shortstop; both Bogaerts and Kim have supplanted San Diego’s $340MM man on the infield depth chart, prompting Tatis to move into a regular role in the outfield. He’s played right field almost exclusively this year, with four games in center and a one-inning cameo at second base representing his only appearances elsewhere on the diamond. While Tatis’s glove may have slid down the defensive hierarchy in 2023, his value on defense has soared. Tatis was worth -10 Outs Above Average and -9 Defensive Runs Saved as a shortstop in his first three seasons in the majors, leaving him well below average at the position.
By contrast, Tatis’s aforementioned move to the outfield has seen him not only provide positive value with his glove, but become one of the best defensive players in the sport this year. Tatis ranks in the 96th percentile with a +12 OAA in 2023, a figure bested by zero outfielders and only eight players at any position this season. Meanwhile, his +23 DRS makes him the second most valuable fielder in all of baseball this year by that metric, outclassed by only Daulton Varsho‘s +26 figure.
While Tatis’s defense has shown this season, his offense has taken a considerable hit. Overall on the season, he’s slashed just .257/.321/.455 in 558 trips to the plate. While that’s still good for a well above average wRC+ of 115, it pales in comparison to the 154 figure he entered the 2023 campaign with for his career. That drop in offensive production comes almost exclusively from a relative power outage. Tatis has hit just 23 homers this season, a far cry from his 2021 season where he slammed 42 dingers in less trips to the plate than he’s taken this year. His once-lofty ISO that was second to only Shohei Ohtani in 2021 has dropped to just .198 this year. That figure is barely enough to crack the top 50, putting him alongside the likes of Justin Turner and Willson Contreras rather than Ohtani and Matt Olson.
That being said, it hasn’t been all bad for Tatis on the offensive side of things. His speed is as elite as ever, clocking in with a 95th percentile sprint speed per Statcast. Meanwhile, he’s 25-for-29 on the bases, and figure identical to his 2021 total. What’s more, he’s seen considerable improvements in his strikeout rate. He’s punching out in just 21.7% of his plate appearances this year, a figure that puts him in line with hitters like Francisco Lindor, Jeimer Candelario and Josh Bell and pushes him to better than league average in terms of strikeouts for the first time in his career.
That improvement in strikeouts is thanks to Tatis posting the highest full-season contact rate of his career, as he’s made contact on 71.4% of his swings compared to 68.4% for his career entering his season. Unfortunately, he’s also swinging more than he did in his first three seasons. While he entered 2023 swinging at less than half of the pitches he’s seen in his career (49.1%), that figure has jumped to 54.3% in 2023. While that isn’t necessarily a problem, those additional swings are primarily occurring outside the strike zone: after swinging at 32% of pitches seen outside of the zone from 2019-21, he’s swinging at 36.1% of those same pitches this year. Given that, it’s hardly a surprise he’s posting the lowest barrel rate of his career (11.9%) despite a Hard-Hit rate that’s largely in line with his career norms.
Only time will tell if Tatis will be able to recapture his elite power stroke in the future by swinging less often outside of the strike zone. Fortunately for the Padres, though, Tatis remains an immensely valuable player even if his 2023 performance with the bat is his new normal. Tatis has been worth 4.0 fWAR and 5.0 rWAR this season. That fWAR figure puts him in the same ballpark as quality players like Soto, Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger this year, while his rWAR is the eighth-highest total in the NL this season. With 11 more years left on Tatis’s megadeal with the Padres, it’s surely a relief to A.J. Preller’s front office that the player they’ll be paying through his age-35 season can still play at an All Star-caliber level, even if he’s no longer be the 40-homer shortstop he was in 2021.