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Free Agent Stock Watch

Free Agent Stock Watch: Takashi Saito

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Reliever Takashi Saito told reporters today he's uncertain about his future, but still believes he can pitch, according to Carroll Rogers of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.  Free agent stock watch time!

The Pros

  • Back in the National League, Saito's numbers this year were reminiscent of his Dodgers days: 2.83 ERA, 11.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and four home runs allowed in 54 innings.  Unlike last year with the Red Sox, Saito was particularly tough on right-handed hitters.
  • Saito is likely to sign a one-year deal.
  • He could handle a closing job, and that strict usage would effectively limit his workload.

The Cons

  • Saito turns 41 in February.  Back in 2008 he became the first pitcher known to receive a platelet-rich plasma injection into his elbow, which allowed for a quick recovery from a torn ulnar collateral ligament.  With the Braves this year he dealt with hamstring and shoulder ailments.  At this point in his career Saito cannot be counted on for 50 innings.  I'm no doctor, but you'd have to worry about that ligament fully tearing.
  • 2009 may have been a fluke, but Saito's periperhals suffered in the American League.

The Verdict

Saito signed with the Braves for a $3.2MM base salary and another $2.3MM in incentives.  If his shoulder and elbow check out, there's no reason he should sign for less this time around.  In fact, he'd have a case for a raise.  He'll be appealing to most teams looking for a tough late-game reliever, but clubs will attempt to keep the base salary low and sign him to an incentive-laden deal given his age and recent injury history.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Rick Ankiel

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The Royals signed outfielder Rick Ankiel to a one-year, $3.25MM deal in January.  I liked the contract, thinking the Royals could extract some value out of him at the trade deadline.  GM Dayton Moore succeeded on that front, pairing Ankiel with Kyle Farnsworth and cash to acquire Jesse Chavez, Gregor Blanco, and Tim Collins from the Braves.  Ankiel has a $6MM mutual option for 2011.  The Braves are likely to choose the $500K buyout, making Ankiel a free agent.  Let's examine his situation.

The Pros

  • Ankiel's power returned in his 101 plate appearance stint with Kansas City.  He slugged .467 with 11 extra-base hits.
  • He hit a respectable .256/.339/.462 in 177 plate appearances against righties this year.
  • The sample was small, but Ankiel's 10.8% walk rate this year was a career best.
  • He's capable of playing all three outfield positions.
  • Ankiel is likely to sign another one-year deal at a lower base salary.

The Cons

  • Ankiel was terrible with the Braves and has never been good at getting on base.
  • Ankiel fares poorly against lefties.
  • He can't stay healthy.  This year a quad strain limited him to 74 games.
  • Ankiel is not much of a defensive center fielder, based on UZR.
  • He's represented by Scott Boras, so his price could be inflated despite the poor season.

The Verdict

When healthy, Ankiel provides some pop against righties.  It'd be difficult to guarantee him more than a million bucks, and you could argue that the deals signed by Jim Edmonds, Andruw Jones, and Corey Patterson are the best comparables.  Ankiel will have to earn his playing time in 2011.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Gerald Laird

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Steve Adams already looked at the stock of one impending free agent in A.J. Pierzynski earlier today, now let's turn our attention to another AL Central catcher. The Tigers informed Gerald Laird that they will not attempt to re-sign him after the season just a week ago, so the soon-to-be 31-year-old backstop will hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Let's see what his stock looks like heading into the winter…

The Good

  • Laird is arguably the best in baseball when it comes to shutting down the opponent's running game. His 34% caught stealing rate was second base among AL catchers this year with at least 650 innings caught this season, and over the last five years he's thrown out a studly 37.6% of base runners.
  • He's extremely durable for a catcher, hitting the disabled list just once since 2004. Like all other catchers though, he'll occasionally miss a day or two with bumps and bruises. It comes with the territory.
  • As a Type-B free agent, a team will not have to surrender a draft pick to sign Laird. It's unlikely that the Tigers would offer him arbitration anyway.

The Bad

  • Laird isn't much of a hitter these days, bottoming out at just .207/.263/.304 in 299 plate appearances this year. Over the last three seasons he's put together a .238/.303/.342 batting line.
  • Laird's a Scott Boras client, so negotiations don't figure to be easy.

The Verdict

The offensive bar for catchers is pretty low right now, with backstops around the league hitting just .249/.319/.381 in 2010. Given the lack of offense found at the position, teams are focusing more on defense behind the plate, so Laird's cannon arm has definite value. 

Jose Molina, a similar no-hit/all-throw catcher, was only able to find a one-year deal worth $400K guaranteed (plus incentives and an club option) last offseason, and even then he had to wait until mid-February. Laird is likely facing a similar situation; a one-year, low base salary contract with some performance bonuses to be a backup somewhere. Catchers are always getting hurt, so even if he settles for a minor league deal he'll probably get an opportunity at some point next summer.

Free Agent Stock Watch: A.J. Pierzynski

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After toiling through most of the season, free-agent-to-be A.J. Pierzynski seemed to suddenly remember he was in a contract year and set the world on fire over the season's final two months. An .821 OPS in August followed by an .815 in September helped Pierzynski at least moderately salvage the worst offensive season of his ten-year career as a Major League regular. Let's look at Pierzynski's situation as he heads into free agency:

The Good

  • Pierzynski owns a .284/.324/.424 slash line for his career, making him one of the game's better hitting catchers over the course of the past decade. He's not elite, but he's been consistent.
  • Pierzynski has played in at least 128 games every year since 2002. He's been able to stay healthy and productive for the most part, despite all of those innings behind the plate.
  • He's unlikely to be offered arbitration, due to his Type A status and $6.25MM base salary in 2010. This means a team interested in signing Pierzynski likely won't have to surrender a pick to do so.
  • He makes consistent contact. Pierzynski struck out in just 8.2% of his plate appearances this season, and his career mark is a solid 12.1%.

The Bad

  • While he doesn't strike out, he walks even less. A.J. walked in just 3% of his plate appearances this season and his career mark of 4% is hardly an improvement.
  • He doesn't come with the reputation of being a great defender behind the plate (though he's improved at throwing out runners each of the past two seasons, including a 26.5% mark this season).
  • Controversy seems to follow Pierzynski and he's been known to have attitude problems with other teams as well as his own.
  • He's 34 years old and has 10,756.2 innings behind the plate since becoming a regular catcher in 2001. He's DH'ed just twice in his career; when he plays, he catches. Given those numbers, it's possible that his 2010 decline is a sign of his body wearing down rather than a statistical aberration.

The Verdict

Pierzynski has been a solid offensive catcher throughout the duration of his career, and there's always teams in need at the position. He's said he'd like to return to Chicago, but has to look at what's best for he and his family. This probably means he's going wherever they pay him the most, and given Tyler Flowers' presence in Chicago (despite a down year in Triple-A), it may not be there. We saw two teams overpay for worse catchers last season when the Royals and Nationals gave two-year deals to Jason Kendall and Ivan Rodriguez, respectively, so it wouldn't shock me to see Pierzynski and his agent look for two years. However, this year's class is much deeper. Pierzynski will have to compete with Victor Martinez, John Buck, Ramon Hernandez, and Rod Barajas, among others. As such, Pierzynski may be limited to a one-year deal in the $3M-$4M range.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Ramon Hernandez

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Ramon Hernandez was on the wrong side of history last night, as part of a Reds lineup that couldn't scratch out a single hit against Roy Halladay. But on the whole, 2010 has been a successful year for the Cincinnati backstop. Hernandez signed a one-year, $3MM contract with the Reds last winter, which included a vesting option for 2011. The 34-year-old fell short of playing the 120 games needed to guarantee his return to the Reds, so he could be heading to free agency this winter. Let's break down his stock, as the Reds prepare for Friday's game….

The Pros

  • Hernandez posted the best OBP and third-best OPS of his career in 2010. His final totals in 352 plate appearances were .297/.364/.428, which represents his best slash line since 2006.
  • His play behind the plate still appears solid. He threw out more than a third of potential basestealers and allowed just two passed balls over the last two seasons.
  • The Reds have a pre-arbitration catcher in Ryan Hanigan, and, as Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News points out, their minor league system seems to be "catcher-rich." As such, there's a chance the Reds will decide not to offer Hernandez arbitration, in which case he wouldn't cost a draft pick to sign.

The Cons

  • Hernandez split time this year with Hanigan, who earned 58 starts. Given that he'll turn 35 in May, Hernandez's days of playing 120+ games behind the plate might be behind him.
  • In addition to his age, Hernandez's health may be a concern. After undergoing knee surgery in 2009, the veteran spent some time on the disabled list in 2010 with knee soreness.
  • Unlike free agent catchers Victor Martinez and John Buck, Hernandez doesn't hit for much power anymore. He hit just 12 longballs during his two years in Cincinnati.
  • Hernandez projects as a Type A free agent, so if he turns down an arbitration offer from the Reds, clubs may be reluctant to give up a high draft pick to sign him.

The Verdict

Whether or not the Reds offer Hernandez arbitration will play a significant role in what sort of contract he earns this offfseason. If the team makes an arbitration offer, the catcher could very well accept it, knowing that his Type A status might hurt his open market value. Even without an arbitration offer, Hernandez may not do better than a one-year deal, given his age and injury history. While his productive 2010 campaign should earn him a raise on last year's $3MM salary, it appears to be a buyer's market for catchers.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Cliff Lee

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It's not often that a bonafide ace hits the free agent market, but when one does it often leads to a feeding frenzy of big market clubs and mystery teams. Current Rangers ace and former Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and in a few weeks he will be able to offer his services to the highest bidder on the open market for the first time in his career.

Lee's credentials are undeniable, but teams must still weigh the good against the bad when preparing to offer anyone a contract of this magnitude. Let's break it down…

The Good

  • Lee is a proven workhorse, logging 667.1 innings over the last three seasons. He's thrown at least 200 innings in five of the last six years and made at least 28 starts in six of the last seven years.
  • If you're a believer in WAR, Lee's +20.8 mark since 2008 is second only to Roy Halladay's +21.5 among all pitchers.
  • He's proven himself in the American League, so there won't be any adjustment period as far as that is concerned.
  • Lee's command is off-the-charts, evidenced by a 0.8 BB/9 this season. He also set a new single season record with a 10.28 K/BB ratio (min. 150 innings).
  • Although he mixes in a curveball, Lee is primarily a fastball-cutter-changeup pitcher without huge velocity. As Andy Pettitte and Jamie Moyer have shown, lefthanders with that arsenal can pitch forever as long as they have their health. 

The Bad

  • Lee is on the wrong side of 30, having turned 32 just over a month ago.
  • He battled some back issues last month, and has a history of oblique trouble dating back to 2003. His arm has been relatively free of injury, however.
  • As a Type-A free agent certain to be offered arbitration, any team except Texas will have to forfeit a high draft to sign him.
  • The Yankees have long had interest in Lee (they almost acquired him this summer), and if they get involved in the bidding it would make life very difficult for everyone else.

The Verdict

Despite the back issues, Lee is certain to become one of the two or three highest paid pitchers in baseball in the coming months. Every team would love to be able to add him to their staff, but it's only economically feasible for a handful. The Yankees have a leg up on everyone else not just because they can offer the most money, but also because Lee is close with CC Sabathia from their Cleveland days. 

That said, the Rangers just signed a lucrative television deal that enables them to make a competitive offer, and we'd be foolish to rule out traditional big spenders like the Mets, Red Sox, Angels, and Tigers (regardless of what they've said). Even the Orioles and Nationals have shown a willingness to go big game hunting on the free agent market recently, so don't be surprised if they get involved as well. 

Lee might not be able to secure a seven-year, $161MM deal like Sabathia since he's three years older than CC was when he hit the market, but $20MM annually for five years seems like nothing more than a starting point. 

Free Agent Stock Watch: Aaron Harang

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Aaron Harang may have made his last start as a member of the Reds today, writes MLB.com's Mark Sheldon.  The big righty had his outing cut short by a blister, and probably will not make the postseason roster.  The Reds are certain to choose Harang's $2MM buyout over his $12.75MM club option for 2011.  His best years were 2005-07, when the workhorse tossed 677.6 innings of 3.77 ball.  Let's assess his situation.

The Pros

  • Even as he started to slip in recent years, Harang's peripherals remained respectable.  He's prone to hits and homers, but at least he gets strikeouts and limits walks typically.
  • He's highly likely to sign a one-year deal.
  • Harang will not cost a draft pick to sign.  In fact, he's below a Type B.

The Cons

  • He's always been a flyball pitcher.  He's also so hittable that many of his frequent home runs allowed will come with runners on base.
  • This year Harang's strikeout rate was his lowest since '03, while his walk rate was his highest since '04.
  • Harang hasn't reached 200 innings since '07, as he's dealt with forearm and back injuries as well as an appendectomy.

The Verdict

Harang needs a big ballpark, and could join the long list of free agents hoping to rebuild value in San Diego.  He could be looking at a base salary in the $3-4MM range for 2011.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Javier Vazquez

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The Yankees acquired Javier Vazquez from the Braves last offseason to help solidify the back of their rotation, but he's proven to be of little help. It was the second time Vazquez was traded in as many offseasons, and the fifth time he was dealt in six years. Despite being in the show for 13 seasons now, he has never been a free agent, instead opting for security in the form of contract extensions. Let's look at Vazquez's stock as he prepares to hit the open market for the first time… 

The Good

  • Vazquez has a reputation as one of the game's best workhorses, logging at least 198 innings (under 200 IP just once) and 32 starts every year from 2000 to 2009. His strikeout-to-unintentional walk ratio is an amazing 2,001-488 during that time (8.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9).
  • He projects as a Type-B free agent, so whatever team signs him would not have to surrender a draft pick to do so. Regardless, the Yanks are unlikely to offer him arbitration anyway. 

The Bad

  • At 34-years-old, Vazquez is no spring chicken and all of those innings might finally be catching up to him. His average fastball velocity has dipped to just 88.7 mph this year, down from 91.1 last year and 91.7 the year before. It's gotten worse as the season has gone on as well.
  • His performance this season ranks among the worst in his career. His 157.1 IP are his fewest since 1999, and his 5.32 ERA forced the Yankees to remove him from the rotation (and into long relief) earlier this month in favor of rookie starter Ivan Nova.
  • Javy is also extremely homer prone, allowing 32 this season and no fewer than 20 in any single season of his career.
  • Vazquez has always preferred to remain on the East Coast, close to his home and family in Puerto Rico, so West Coast clubs are likely out of luck.

The Verdict 

Vazquez seemed like a lock for a multi-year deal coming into the season, but it's hard to imagine him getting more than one guaranteed year right now. He'll likely have to settle for a one-year "prove yourself" kind of contract and hope he improves his stock next season. That said, if an offseason of rest helps him regain his old form, Vazquez could end up being a potential bargain on a short-term, low-money deal.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jim Thome

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Jim Thome needs 15 more plate appearances to reach 350 for the season, which would unlock an $0.1MM incentive bonus within the one-year, $1.5MM deal he signed with Minnesota in the offseason.  Thome has already hit two such plate appearance clauses, boosting his season total up to $1.7MM — still a huge bargain for the Twins given Thome's team-leading 25 homers and .631 slugging percentage.

The future Hall-of-Famer said he might retire a champion if the Twins win the World Series, but in all likelihood, Thome will be back in 2011 to gun for the 600-homer club.  (Thome enters Thursday's action with 589 career long balls.)  With so many teams looking for offense this winter, here's what interested clubs should be considering when looking at Thome.

The Pros

  • Thome has a whopping 1.155 OPS against right-handed pitching.
  • Though he'll easily command more than he did in 2010, Thome is still a bargain compared to pricier DH options on the market like Adam Dunn, David Ortiz or Manny Ramirez.
  • He just missed out on Type B free agent status, so a team can sign Thome without draft pick compensation.
  • Thome is universally regarded as one of the most well-liked and well-respected players in the game.  This intangible factor shouldn't be ignored when a general manager is deciding whom to bring into a clubhouse, especially in the case of a young team looking for a veteran presence.

The Cons

  • Thome hasn't been anything but a DH or a pinch-hitter for the last three seasons.  His lack of a defensive position will limit his market to American League teams.
  • The 40-year-old Thome has battled nagging thigh and back injuries this season and can't be counted on to play every day.
  • Along those same lines, Thome's slash line against lefties this season (in 91 PA) is .238/.297/.476.  Thome will need to be paired with a right-handed hitting DH who can pick up the slack against southpaws.

The Verdict

It seems another one-year contract is in the cards for Thome, who probably wouldn't have it any other way given that he's toying with retirement.  Despite the fact that he's only suited for a platoon DH role, Thome will probably be able to get a deal worth as much as $5MM.  Such a total would still be a steal if Thome can replicate his 2010 campaign.

Which AL teams could take an interest in Thome?  Minnesota is the first choice; Thome has become a folk hero at Target Field due to his role in the Twins' AL Central title and the club already has interest in bringing him back.

Aside from the Twins, the Red Sox (if they don't pick up Ortiz's 2011 option), Tigers, Angels, Rays and White Sox could also give Thome a look.  Chicago pursuing Thome would be rather ironic, since it was the team's failure to pursue Thome last winter and subsequent lack of production from the DH role that was allegedly one of the factors in the Ozzie Guillen/Kenny Williams tension over the summer.  New York might also have an interest; if the Yankees stick to their plan of using the designated hitter spot to give Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada a break from playing the field, they could DH those two against lefties and sign Thome to start against righties. 

Baltimore, Oakland, Seattle and (if Adam Lind moves to first base) Toronto are teams who are looking for offense and might have an opening at DH.  If Thome is still looking for his first World Series title, however, he's more likely to sign with a contender.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jake Westbrook

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Jake Westbrook has found the National League to his liking since being acquired by the Cardinals on July 31st.  He's provided them with 67.3 innings of 3.48 ball, improving his strikeout and groundball rates.  Westbrook would be open to returning to the Indians next year, and the Cardinals could try to extend him next month, but let's analyze his situation assuming he heads to free agency for the first time.

The Pros

  • Westbrook has always been a groundball monster, but his 62.8% National League rate harkens back to his best years and would rank second in the league behind Tim Hudson.  Teams in homer-happy ballparks figure to target Westbrook.
  • He won't cost a draft pick.  In fact, he's not even close to Type B status, so the Cardinals have no reason to offer arbitration.
  • Westbrook tallied fewer than 190 innings from 2007-09 due to Tommy John and hip surgery and an oblique strain; the missed time could suppress his price.

The Cons

  • Some teams may be concerned that Westbrook's improved National League performance wouldn't hold up if he left Dave Duncan's tutelage.  That might be unfair; Joel Pineiro was no worse for the wear this year.
  • Perhaps Westbrook's asking price will be significant – he's finishing a three-year, $33MM contract and should be one of maybe seven free agent starters coming off a 200 inning season.  Hudson received a three-year, $28MM extension from the Braves in November of last year with a much smaller post-Tommy John innings sample.
  • Westbrook is not a dominant pitcher.  His career K/9 is 5.0 and he's allowed 9.6 hits per nine innings.

The Verdict

Westbrook might be able to find a two-year, $15MM deal in the mold of the contracts signed by Pineiro and Jason Marquis last winter.  He'd be wise to jump on an offer guaranteeing multiple years, as GMs figure to remain cautious this winter in general.

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