Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants
The first year of Buster Posey's front office tenure saw the Giants add a pair of stars. The end result was the same league average record that defined the Farhan Zaidi era. That spurred a bold change in the dugout. The Giants fired three-time Manager of the Year Bob Melvin while turning to the college ranks with a splash hire of former University of Tennessee head coach Tony Vitello.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Rafael Devers, DH: $238.5MM through 2033
- Willy Adames, SS: $150MM through 2031
- Matt Chapman, 3B: $125MM through 2030
- Jung Hoo Lee, CF: $85MM through 2029 (can opt out after '27)
- Logan Webb, RHP: $70MM through 2028
- Robbie Ray, LHP: $25MM through 2026
Option Decisions
- Team holds $4MM option on C Tom Murphy ($250K buyout)
2026 guaranteed contracts: $132.75MM
Total future commitments: $693.75MM through 2033
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- JT Brubaker (5.162): $2.1MM
- Andrew Knizner (5.090): $1.3MM
- Joey Lucchesi (5.047): $2MM
- Ryan Walker (2.136): $2.5MM
- Patrick Bailey (2.136): $2.2MM
Non-tender candidates: Brubaker, Knizner, Lucchesi
Free Agents
After a few years of coming up empty on star pursuits, the Giants landed two impact hitters within the first nine months of Buster Posey's tenure atop baseball operations. They signed Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182MM free agent deal that represented the largest in franchise history. They made an even bigger commitment when they pulled off the Rafael Devers blockbuster in June. The Giants took on more than $240MM on Devers' contract over eight and a half seasons.
While the moves added much needed star talent to the San Francisco lineup, they didn't push the team to a playoff berth. On the heels of another .500 finish, they're now emphasizing a deeper pitching staff. "I think our focus is going to be on pitching, to try to fortify our starting staff. The same goes with the bullpen," Posey told Alex Pavlovic and Laura Britt of NBC Sports Bay Area. "I believe that pitching and defense wins, so that's where we'll probably start looking this offseason when free agency does happen."
That won't happen for another week or two, but the Giants didn't waste any time making significant changes. They fired manager Bob Melvin the day after the end of the regular season. A few weeks later, they zeroed in on Tony Vitello as their hire. There isn't any precedent for a top-tier college baseball coach jumping directly into MLB managing without any coaching or front office experience in pro ball.
There have been a few instances of teams poaching college pitching coaches. There are also examples of the "college to professional head coach" move in the NFL, NHL and NBA. Vitello will be the first test case in Major League Baseball. It remains to be seen how much of Melvin's staff will be retained. Bench coach Ryan Christenson and third base coach Matt Williams were out as soon as Melvin was dismissed.
The front office's focus now turns to the roster. They should have a good amount of payroll space with which to work. They have $132.75MM in guaranteed commitments for six highly-priced players. It's one of the game's lightest arbitration classes, though, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting the group for a little over $10MM. Non-tenders of JT Brubaker, Joey Lucchesi and Andrew Knizner would drop that below $5MM, as Patrick Bailey and Ryan Walker are their only two locks to be offered contracts.
That'd put their Opening Day payroll projection in the $150-155MM range if they filled the rest of the roster with minimum salaried players. RosterResource estimates their luxury tax number around $174MM, which is $70MM below the base threshold. The Giants ducked the luxury tax this year but had exceeded the threshold as recently as 2024. Even if they're not willing to go all the way to $244MM, they should be able to make multiple notable additions.
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Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians pulled off one of the most incredible comebacks in baseball history to win the American League Central in 2025. Going into the winter, they have a lot of good pieces in place and will look to strengthen the roster as they try to win a third straight division title in 2026.
Guaranteed Contracts
- José Ramírez, 3B: $69MM through 2028.
- Tanner Bibee, RHP: $43MM through 2029, including $1MM buyout on 2030 club option.
- Emmanuel Clase, RHP: $8MM through 2026, including $2MM buyout on 2027 club option. Deal also includes 2028 club option.
- Trevor Stephan, RHP: $4.75MM through 2026, including $1.75MM buyout on 2027 club option. Deal also includes 2028 club option.
- Austin Hedges, C: $4MM through 2026.
Other Financial Commitments
- Owe $2.75MM to Blue Jays as part of Myles Straw trade
Option Decisions
- Club has $6MM option on LHP John Means with no buyout
2026 guarantees: $44.5MM
Total future commitments: $131.5MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Kolby Allard (5.004): $1.9MM
- Sam Hentges (4.157): $1.3375MM
- Steven Kwan (4.000): $8.8MM
- Ben Lively (3.133): $2.7MM
- Nolan Jones (3.007): $2MM
- Will Brennan (2.155): $900K
- David Fry (2.154): $1.2MM
- Matt Festa (2.153): $1MM
Non-tender candidates: Hentges, Lively, Jones, Brennan
Free Agents
2025 was quite the rollercoaster season for the Guardians. They were 31-26 at the end of May and in possession of a Wild Card spot. But then they hit a skid, going 9-16 in June, which included part of a ten-game losing streak that went from June 26th to July 6th. After that losing streak, they were 40-48 and seven games back of a playoff spot.
Amidst that losing streak, right-hander Luis Ortiz was placed on leave due to a gambling investigation. It seemed the season was slipping away, so trade rumors started to swirl around players like Emmanuel Clase, Steven Kwan and Shane Bieber. Then Clase himself was placed on leave alongside Ortiz, also due to that gambling investigation. That took him off the trading block but also harmed Cleveland's bullpen. As the deadline came and went, they did some modest selling. They flipped Bieber and Paul Sewald, who were both on the injured list at the time, but held Kwan and everyone else.
Amazingly, everything turned around from there. The Guards went 14-13 in August and then an incredible 20-7 in September. That latter month included a ten-game winning streak from September 11th to 20th. As the Guards were surging, the Tigers were scuffling. Cleveland managed to finish a game ahead of Detroit, winning the Central for a second straight season. The Tigers got the last laugh by beating the Guards in the Wild Card round, but it was still an incredible run for the Guards, and one that could give them momentum going into 2026.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope you're all well! Looking forward to another of these
- Busy week for us with offseason prep so I'm going to keep this one at an hour. Let's get going
Bo nose
- I sure hope Bichette's addition to the Jays' roster is not a sentimental move nor one anticipating contributions defensively. Ordinarily a plus bat, the area where, arguably, the Blue Jays are strongest as a team right now, he has been feeble against L.A. over the past two years. That's only six games but, combined with the lay-off, is his best usage more likely to be as a super-sub PH than in any starting defender capacity? I think the noise about using him at 2nd is just that, noise.
Duffy Scliff
- Does Toronto realistically have a shot in this series? Does the fact that LAD hasn’t played in awhile hurt them?
Anthony Franco
- Dodgers are favorites but it's like 55-45, they've definitely got a shot. L.A.'s bullpen still feels like a weakness and the Jays should put up a much better fight against the rotation than Milwaukee did
- We'll see on Bo. Obviously if he can move at all, then playing him at second would be ideal. Use Clement at third with Barger in RF and IKF as a defensive sub late in games. If he's so hobbled that he can't field a ground-ball, well he's at least a better pinch-hitting option than Loperfido would've been
Hopeful Halo
- What do you think the angels chances are to land a top starter like Valdez?
Anthony Franco
- Would be out of character for Moreno and they've got so many other needs that I don't think using most of the budget on one top starter would be the wisest choice anyway
- I could see them more in on Gallen or a boring innings eater like Littell. They'll need to spend something on a center fielder and a third baseman and should at least bring Kenley back to solidify the back of the bullpen
Japanese Players
- Who do you think gets the highest contract for Japanese pitchers coming over this year? Imai seems to be the one getting most of the conversation now. I do wonder if he might be getting a little to hyped now? It does seem sometimes we get hyped for a player and they struggle coming over.
Anthony Franco
- Yeah it'll be Imai. He's a bit of split camp guy but I'd be surprised if he signs for less than $130M
- I think the recent track record for the top NPB starters is pretty good actually. Yamamoto's phenomenal. Tanaka worked out really well, Imanaga was excellent value at 4/53. Jury's still out on Sasaki but for even if he's only a late-inning reliever, that's well worth what the Dodgers paid with the hard capped bonuses
Rangers13
- How much do you expect Okamoto to cost?
Anthony Franco
- We all landed at three years and between $33-45MM but there's a really wide error bar on the predictions for players (especially hitters) coming over from foreign leagues
- Seems like he's at least equally interesting as Jeimer Candelario or Jurickson Profar were though
Ding a ling
- Has Dillon Dingler really changed his hit tool? Both FanGraphs and MLB gave him a 30 as a prospect, but this past season, he hit for a respectable average. Who's the real Dillon Dingler?
Anthony Franco
- Yeah definitely think he's better than a 30 hit tool. Big step forward in his in-zone contact rate, fewer chases. Hits the ball hard enough to post decent results on balls in play, even if he's probably not turning in a .345 BABIP every year
- Feels like a 50 hitter with average pop who plays really strong defense behind the plate. Good player
Mike Yastrzemski
- Please find me a home?
Anthony Franco
- I fully expect the Royals to bring him back on a one-year deal for $10-12M. He hit well there and it's obviously an ongoing need
- If they go elsewhere, Philly, Pittsburgh or Cleveland would work. Wouldn't pick the Giants to do it after they traded him but it's not like Luis Matos/Drew Gilbert seized the RF job. If they focus most of their resources on the rotation and Yaz is out for $8M in February, I don't see why they wouldn't be willing to circle back
Arthur Dent
- Any chance the Guardians will entertain offers in Steven Kwan? If so, what would Cleveland be looking for in return?
-
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Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins
The Twins gutted their roster at the trade deadline, fired their manager after the season and still haven't divulged any information on their new limited partners who bought a heavy share of the club. To call morale "low" among fans would be an egregious understatement, and the looming offseason doesn't offer much reason for optimism.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Byron Buxton, OF: $45MM through 2028
- Pablo Lopez, RHP: $43MM through 2027
Other Financial Commitments
- $30MM owed to Astros through 2028 as part of Carlos Correa trade ($10MM annually)
Total 2026 commitments: $46.5MM
Total long-term commitments: $118MM through 2028
Option Decisions
- Justin Topa, RHP: $2MM club option with $225K buyout (Topa remains under control via arbitration if Twins decline)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Genesis Cabrera (5.149): $1.4MM
- Ryan Jeffers (5.089): $6.6MM
- Justin Topa (5.044): $1.7MM (Twins hold a $2MM club option with a $225K buyout)
- Michael Tonkin (5.044): $1.4MM
- Bailey Ober (4.093): $4.6MM
- Joe Ryan (4.033): $5.8MM
- Trevor Larnach (4.014): $4.7MM
- Royce Lewis (3.142): $3MM
- Anthony Misiewicz (3.082): $1.1MM
- Cole Sands (3.017): $1.3MM
Non-tender candidates: Cabrera, Tonkin, Larnach, Misiewicz
Free Agents
The Twins were in contention for much of the season's first half, even rattling off a 13-game winning streak from early May into the middle portion of the month. When things went south and the club fell below .500 with the deadline approaching, Minnesota emerged as a clear seller. It was originally expected to be a minor sale of pending free agents like Willi Castro, Chris Paddack and Harrison Bader. Instead, Minnesota traded a staggering 11 players, including several who were controlled beyond the current season -- in some instances (e.g. Louis Varland) as far out as 2030.
Whether that was due to the front office acting opportunistically in a market that lacked many pure sellers or (more likely) because ownership mandated further payroll cuts after being unable to find a buyer for the team due to a reported $400MM+ in outstanding debt, Minnesota's stunning deadline fire sale set the stage for what feels like a notable step back that will continue into the forthcoming offseason.
The large-scale changes didn't stop at the deadline. Manager Rocco Baldelli was the sacrificial lamb at season's end, getting fired with a year to go on his contract. Baldelli's tenure was far from perfect, as the Twins have had their share of disappointing seasons (including 2024's September collapse), but no manager could have succeeded in the wake of such a dramatic teardown, which included shipping out the five best relievers in what had been an excellent bullpen.
The Twins' offseason, accordingly, commences with a managerial search that has already seen them tied to names like former Mariners skipper Scott Servais, Red Sox bench coach Ramon Vazquez, and old friends Derek Shelton, James Rowson and (stretching much further back) Nick Punto. Change is coming in the Twins' dugout, but there's also still a fair bit of turnover possible on the roster itself.
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Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies
For the second straight season, the Phillies won the NL East and earned a bye to the NLDS, only to lose in four games. The Phils again face some big decisions about retaining or replacing members of their core, and the bigger-picture question might be if this core group needs a larger shakeup to get the team over the top.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Trea Turner, SS: $218.19MM through 2033
- Bryce Harper, 1B: $144MM through 2031
- Aaron Nola, SP: $122.86MM through 2030
- Zack Wheeler, SP: $84MM through 2027
- Nick Castellanos, OF: $20MM through 2026
- Cristopher Sanchez, SP: $19MM through 2028 (includes $1MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2029; Phillies also have $15MM club option for 2030 with $1MM buyout)
- Taijuan Walker, SP: $18MM through 2026
- Matt Strahm, RP: $7.5MM through 2026
Option Decisions
- Harrison Bader, OF: $10MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
- Jose Alvarado, RP: $9MM club option for 2026 ($500K buyout)
2026 financial commitments (assuming Alvarado's option is exercised):$177.34MM
Total future commitments (assuming Alvarado's option is exercised): $642.54M
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Jesus Luzardo (5.165): $10.4MM
- Edmundo Sosa (5.140): $3.9MM
- Alec Bohm (5.106): $10.3MM
- Garrett Stubbs (4.148): $925K
- Brandon Marsh (4.078): $4.5MM
- Jhoan Duran (4.000): $7.6MM
- Bryson Stott (4.000): $5.8MM
- Tanner Banks (3.092): $1.2MM
- Rafael Marchan (3.006): $1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Bohm, Stubbs, Marchan
Free Agents
- Kyle Schwarber, Ranger Suarez, J.T. Realmuto, Max Kepler, Jordan Romano, Walker Buehler, David Robertson, Tim Mayza, Lou Trivino, Bader (assuming mutual option is declined)
Coming off a 56-homer season, Kyle Schwarber is understandably looking to cash in, and could aim for a five-year free agent deal that would cover his age 33-37 seasons. That would be a hefty commitment to a player who is basically a DH-only bat at this point in his career, though it is possible that in exchange for a longer term, Schwarber and his reps at Excel might be willing to bend a little on the contract's average annual value.
Speculating on the tenor of negotiations could be a moot point, however, since there is a sense that the Phillies are dead set on bringing Schwarber back. There has been public interest in a reunion from Schwarber himself, from president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, and (most importantly) from owner John Middleton. The Phils have been more than willing to pay top dollar to retain most of their top talents during the Middleton era, ranging from Zack Wheeler's extension to new contracts with Aaron Nola and J.T. Realmuto after first letting them test free agency.
Realmuto is back on the market again now that his five-year, $115.5MM deal is up. It was money well spent, as Cal Raleigh is the only catcher in baseball to post a higher fWAR than Realmuto's 17.8 number over the 2021-25 span. On the flip side, Realmuto's production at the plate dropped in his age-34 season, as he hit .257/.315/.384 with 12 homers (for a 94 wRC+) over 550 plate appearances in 2025.
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Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels pushed MLB's longest active playoff drought to 11 seasons. They've lost at least 89 games in four consecutive years. While general manager Perry Minasian will get a sixth season, there's another change in the dugout. Kurt Suzuki has a difficult task ahead of his first year as an MLB manager.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Mike Trout, RF: $177.25MM through 2030
- Yusei Kikuchi, LHP: $42MM through 2027
- Anthony Rendon, 3B: $38MM through 2026
- Jorge Soler, DH: $13MM through 2026
- Robert Stephenson, RHP: $11MM through 2026 (deal includes $2.5MM club option for '27)
- Travis d'Arnaud, C: $6MM through 2026
Additional Financial Commitments
- Owe $2MM buyout to outrighted 1B Evan White
- Owe $250K buyout to released IF Kevin Newman
2026 guaranteed contracts: $126.5MM
Total future commitments: $289.5MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Taylor Ward (5.164): $13.7MM
- Brock Burke (5.045): $2MM
- Jo Adell (4.085): $5.5MM
- Reid Detmers (3.159): $2.6MM
- José Soriano (3.121): $3.2MM
- Logan O’Hoppe (3.008): $2.9MM
- Zach Neto (2.170): $4.1MM
Free Agents
- Kyle Hendricks, Tyler Anderson, Luis Rengifo, Yoán Moncada, Kenley Jansen, Luis García, José Ureña, Andrew Chafin, Hunter Strickland, Chris Taylor
The Angels are in an all too familiar position. They've shown no appetite for a rebuild without having the kind of depth on the MLB roster to compete over a 162-game schedule. They outperformed their run differential in the first half of this past season, allowing them to essentially sit on their hands at the trade deadline. Then they went 19-34 over the final two months -- a record better only than the Rockies and Twins -- to lose 90 games yet again.
GM Perry Minasian gets another opportunity to turn things around. He's going into the final guaranteed season of his contract. He has yet to win more than 77 games. The Angels' issues predate Minasian's hiring and can be laid largely at the feet of owner Arte Moreno, but the front office is surely under some pressure to get better results. The Angels opted not to bring back Ron Washington or interim skipper Ray Montgomery, so they're now on the fourth full-time manager of the Minasian era.
That'll be Kurt Suzuki, a first-time manager with no MLB coaching experience. Sam Blum of The Athletic reports that it's a one-year contract, an atypically short commitment to any manager. Suzuki was highly respected as a longtime big league catcher and has spent the past three seasons working as a special assistant in the Angels' front office. While the jury is out on that hiring, the search process didn't exactly point to the organization having a coherent plan.
As recently as two weeks ago, it looked like Albert Pujols would be the choice. The future Hall of Famer seemed to be Moreno's preferred candidate. Last week, The Athletic's Sam Blum reported that the team had reversed course and would at least interview Suzuki and Torii Hunter as well. Pujols was out a few days later. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that disagreements regarding the coaching staff and compensation were among the reasons the Pujols talks fell apart. Blum wrote that it was mostly a contractual dispute.
The Angels owe Pujols $1MM annually for the next seven seasons as part of the personal services contract that he signed when he retired as a player. It's unclear if the Angels hoped to incorporate that into Pujols' managerial salaries. In any case, it's not a great look for the organization that they were unwilling to meet the asking price of the person they considered the best candidate available. Pujols' salary demands aren't known, but even the most successful managers in MLB make around $8MM annually. That's barely more than the Angels are paying backup catcher Travis d'Arnaud.
None of that is meant as a slight at Suzuki. It's certainly not a given that Pujols would have been a better hire. Yet it's the latest example of Moreno valuing marginal short-term savings over what he ostensibly believed would have been the best choice for the team. That probably doesn't bode well for the more significant roster shakeup that should be in the cards.
Suzuki will have his work cut out for him with what is likely to remain one of the league's weakest rosters. The Angels have questions behind the plate, at both second and third base, and in center field. They have at most two reliable starting pitchers, neither of whom fit at the top of a rotation. Building Reid Detmers back up gives them another potential mid-rotation arm but leaves them with arguably one dependable reliever (Brock Burke). Minasian told Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register and other reporters earlier this month that Detmers "earned" another look as a starter and is expected to be in the Opening Day rotation.
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Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs won a playoff series for the first time in eight years. With clean books beyond 2026, will they make a major rotation addition this winter?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Dansby Swanson, SS: $105MM through 2029
- Ian Happ, LF: $18MM through 2026
- Seiya Suzuki, DH/OF: $18MM through 2026
- Jameson Taillon, SP: $18MM through 2026
- Nico Hoerner, 2B: $12MM through 2026
- Matthew Boyd, SP: $16.5MM through 2026
- Carson Kelly, C: $6.5MM through 2026
Option Decisions
- Shota Imanaga, SP: three-year, $57.75MM club option. If declined, Imanaga has a $15.25MM player option for 2026. If Imanaga exercises that, he'd have another $15.25MM player option for 2027 if the Cubs don't exercise a $42.5MM club option for 2027-28.
- Andrew Kittredge, RP: $9MM club option with a $1MM buyout
- Colin Rea, SP/RP: $6MM club option with a $750K buyout
- Justin Turner, 1B/DH: $10MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)
- Reese McGuire (5.110): $1.9MM
- Justin Steele (4.143): $6.55MM
- Eli Morgan (4.091): $1.1MM
- Javier Assad (3.027): $1.9MM
- Non-tender candidates: McGuire, Morgan
Free Agents
- Kyle Tucker, Brad Keller, Caleb Thielbar, Drew Pomeranz, Taylor Rogers, Michael Soroka, Aaron Civale, Willi Castro, Ryan Brasier
The Cubs broke through this year with a 92-win season, their highest total since 2018. They reached the playoffs for the first time since 2020 and won a playoff game and series for the first time since 2017. After the Cubs lost Game 5 of the division series to the Brewers with a "bullpen game" pitching approach, fans couldn't help but wonder if the team could have gone further with a healthy Cade Horton and/or Justin Steele.
Let's start this offseason outlook by assessing the complicated option of the pitcher the Cubs chose to avoid in Game 5, Shota Imanaga. Imanaga, 32, was a rousing success last year as an MLB rookie. He made the All-Star team and garnered Cy Young and Rookie of the Year votes, posting a 2.91 ERA in 173 1/3 innings.
After eight starts this year, Imanaga suffered a strained left hamstring that knocked him out for 53 days. On the season, Imanaga's control remained excellent, but his average fastball velocity slipped below 91 miles per hour and his strikeout rate dropped below league average. Among starters with at least 100 innings, Imanaga's 29.2% groundball rate was the lowest in baseball, leading to a 1.93 HR/9 rate that ranked second-worst.
Imanaga still managed a 3.73 ERA, but it's fair to say he demonstrated the skills of perhaps a 4.20 pitcher. Even if 150 innings of a 4ish ERA is what the Cubs can expect from Imanaga moving forward, that's rotation-worthy. The question is whether the Cubs would sign such a pitcher to a three-year, $57.75MM contract heading into his age-32 season, and commit to that in early November.
A good comp for that might be Dallas Keuchel's three-year, $55.5MM deal with the White Sox six years ago. Though a groundball heavy pitcher, Keuchel was also a soft-tossing lefty heading into his age-32 season. That contract did not go well.
There are soft factors to consider here, such as the Cubs' recruiting efforts toward other Japanese players and Imanaga's popularity with fans last year. MLBTR writers debated Imanaga's complicated option situation, and here's our best guess:
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MLB Mailbag: Skubal, Castellanos, Happ, Pablo Lopez
This week's mailbag includes questions on Tarik Skubal, Nick Castellanos, Ian Happ, Pablo Lopez, and much more.
Abner asks:
The Tarik Skubal trade rumors dominated the news during the past weekend. The NY Mets has been mentioned as a possible destination for the Detroit Tigers' ace. But what would be a realistic prospect capital cost the Mets will have to live with if they really want to get a guy as talented as Skubal (even for just 1 year of team control)? Now, Freddy Peralta could also be available in the trade market, and he for sure should be a more affordable option than Skubal. Knowing the way David Stearns values the farm system of the team and his connection with the Brewers, which trade has more probability to get done , a trade for Peralta or a trade for Skubal? Thanks in advance.
There's never been any indication Skubal and the Tigers were close on a contract extension, nor is there a sign the team's willingness to trade him has changed. Steve Adams and I differ on the likelihood of an offseason trade happening. In a discussion last week, Steve pegged the chances of a Skubal trade this winter at 0.25%. I'm more in the range of 5-10%.
Steve wrote in his live chat yesterday, "I think the Tigers would be crazy to truly make Skubal available. They’re just not going to be better in 2026 without him, regardless of the return, unless you’re just banking on Skubal getting hurt. He’s the best pitcher in baseball (sorry, Paul Skenes, but you can be No. 2 for now). I would absolutely just ride out the year and try to sign him in free agency. The draft pick after the first round isn’t nothing, and if the Tigers are earnest about being in a World Series window right now, then trading Skubal isn’t something I’d spend much time entertaining. Let teams make the crazy offers, sure, but they’d have to be offered something outrageous to consider it."
My stance is that I can't peer into the mind of Tigers owner Christopher Ilitch. Some owners do trade superstar players in the offseason before their walk year if they determine they cannot sign him. We've seen it with Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, and others. I think Steve might say that Skubal is different from those players, the teams are in somewhat different spots, and/or their owners had different philosophies.
I find Skubal unlikely to be traded this winter, but it wouldn't shock me.
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Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles came into 2025 as contenders but their season fell apart quickly. They have the pieces to bounce back in 2026 but what remains to be seen is how aggressive they will be in making offseason upgrades.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Tyler O'Neill, OF: $33MM through 2027
- Samuel Basallo, C/1B: $67MM through 2033, including buyout of 2034 club option
Option Decisions
- OF Tyler O'Neill can opt out of remaining two years and $33MM on his deal
- Club has $5.5MM option on IF/OF Jorge Mateo
- Club has $3MM option on LHP Dietrich Enns
2026 guarantees (assuming the Enns option is picked up): $20.5MM
Total future commitments: $103MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Ryan Mountcastle (5.105): $7.8MM
- Keegan Akin (5.083): $3MM
- Dylan Carlson (5.067): $1.5MM
- Trevor Rogers (5.047): $6MM
- Tyler Wells (4.132): $2.7MM
- José Castillo (4.112): $1.7MM
- Dean Kremer (4.112): $5.1MM
- Adley Rutschman (4.000): $6.8MM
- Félix Bautista (4.000): $2.1MM
- Kyle Bradish (3.160): $2.8MM
- Yennier Cano (3.065): $1.8MM
- Gunnar Henderson (3.036): $6.6MM
- Alex Jackson (3.036): $1.8MM
- Albert Suárez (3.019): $900K
Non-tender candidates: Mountcastle, Akin, Carlson, Castillo, Cano, Jackson
Free Agents
As seen up top, the O's have almost no long-term commitments. They have a large arbitration class but none of the projections are particularly onerous. Even with those arb players, RosterResource projects the club for a paltry $69MM payroll next year, almost $100MM below what they spent in 2025. A few non-tenders should give them even more breathing room.
All that potential payroll capacity doesn't guarantee of aggressive moves, however. They also had lots of dry powder last winter and still kept things fairly modest. The only multi-year pact was a three-year deal for Tyler O'Neill with an opt-out after the first season. Otherwise, it was one-year deals for veteran players like Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano, Andrew Kittredge, Gary Sánchez and Ramón Laureano.
The starting pitching investments were particularly underwhelming. The O's clearly needed more in the rotation. Since it was the first offseason under new owner David Rubenstein, some fans believed a new level of spending was possible. In November, then-general manager Mike Elias set the expectations fairly high. "You’re certainly wanting to keep the whole menu of player acquisition open," he said. "That involves high-end free agent deals over many years. We’ve been engaged in those conversations already.”
But the O's ended up with a 41-year-old Morton and a 35-year-old Sugano. The rotation ended up being a source of frustration for the O's all year. A spring injury to Grayson Rodriguez quickly cut into the depth and led the O's to a mid-March signing of Kyle Gibson. In April, Zach Eflin hit the injured list and Morton struggled enough to get bumped to the bullpen. Gibson came up to try to patch the holes but he was torched in four starts and released in May. Plenty of other guys struggled to put good numbers together as well.
The season quickly slipped away. They were 12-18 at the end of April and then went 9-18 in May. They were better the rest of the way but it was too late to get the season back on track. They went into the deadline as sellers and were aggressive in trading away veterans for prospects.
Going into 2026, the rotation again needs some work, though there have been some positive developments. Trevor Rogers took a while to get on track in 2025, starting the season on the IL with a knee injury, but had an amazing finish. He posted a 1.81 earned run average over 18 starts. It's not realistic to expect him to stay that good over a longer sample but the numbers under the hood are promising. Kyle Bradish got back on the mound after his 2024 Tommy John surgery. He only made six starts in the majors but also made six more as part of his rehab.
Rogers and Bradish make for a strong one-two punch atop the rotation. Rodriguez would be another front-of-rotation option but he missed the entire season due to elbow and shoulder issues. He's expected to be ready for spring training but the O's will probably have to be mindful of his workload for a while. Guys like Dean Kremer, Cade Povich and Tyler Wells can fill in the back but adding another front-end guy makes sense, something Elias has admitted. Will the poor 2025 season prompt a bolder strike this offseason?
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Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers
The Rangers failed to score enough runs for the second straight year. After making a few unsuccessful changes around the core last winter, they should be up for a more radical overhaul of the lineup.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Corey Seager, SS: $186MM through 2031
- Jacob deGrom, RHP: $75MM through 2027 (deal includes club/vesting option for '28)
- Marcus Semien, 2B: $72MM through 2028
- Nathan Eovaldi, RHP: $57MM through 2027 (including $12MM in unpaid signing bonus)
- Joc Pederson, DH: $18.5MM player option
- Kyle Higashioka, C: $7.75MM through 2026 (including buyout of '27 mutual option)
Option Decisions
- DH Joc Pederson haș $18.5MM player option (deal includes matching mutual option for '27)
2026 guarantees (assuming Pederson opts in): $146.25MM
Total future commitments: $416.25MM through 2031
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Jonah Heim (5.097): $6MM
- Adolis García (5.095): $12.1MM
- Josh Sborz (5.055): $1.1MM
- Jacob Webb (5.046): $2MM
- Sam Haggerty (5.007): $1.4MM
- Josh Smith (3.129): $3MM
- Jake Burger (3.127): $3.5MM
- Ezequiel Duran (3.050): $1.4MM
- Josh Jung (3.023): $2.9MM
Non-tender candidates: Heim, García, Sborz, Haggerty, Burger, Duran
Free Agents
- Merrill Kelly, Patrick Corbin, Tyler Mahle, Hoby Milner, Shawn Armstrong, Phil Maton, Chris Martin, Danny Coulombe, Rowdy Tellez, Jon Gray, Dylan Moore, Donovan Solano
The Rangers followed up their championship season with a 78-84 showing in which they finished 18th in scoring. They signed Joc Pederson and swapped out Nathaniel Lowe for Jake Burger, hoping to add some power and do more damage against fastballs. Neither Pederson nor Burger stepped up, and the Rangers dropped to 22nd in scoring this year. An improved pitching staff pushed them to .500, but they finished with a whimper despite buying at the trade deadline.
Bigger changes are in order. That already began in the manager's office. The Rangers parted ways with Bruce Bochy after three seasons. It took less than a week to hammer out a four-year contract with Skip Schumaker, a former NL Manager of the Year who returns to the dugout after a season working as a special assistant in the Texas front office. Schumaker should be working with a much different lineup than the one that closed Bochy's tenure.
The broad focus is to improve the offensive approach. Only the Rockies, Guardians, Angels and White Sox had a lower on-base percentage. Texas was in the bottom third of MLB in walk rate. At the end-of-season press conference, general manager Ross Fenstermaker said the team could prioritize "stable skills, on-base percentage, the ability to make contact, execute situationally" in their external additions (link via Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News).
Before that can happen, they'll need to move on from a few players. Rowdy Tellez is their only impending free agent hitter of any note, so the significant work will happen via trades and/or non-tenders. They're unlikely to find a taker for Pederson, who'll exercise a $16.5MM player option after hitting .181/.285/.328 during his first season in Texas. It's hard to imagine they'd move Corey Seager, who remains the team's best hitter and whose contract (another six years at $31MM annually) would only work for a couple large-market teams. Wyatt Langford, Josh Smith and Evan Carter should be back as affordable building blocks.
The Rangers might try to get out from under a portion of the Marcus Semien contract. He's owed $72MM over the final three seasons of his seven-year free agent deal. Semien was phenomenal during the World Series season but has tailed off over the past two years. He's coming off a career-worst .230/.305/.364 slash line with 15 homers and ended the year on the injured list with a Lisfranc issue in his left foot.
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