Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- Good morning! We'll get going at 2pm CT today, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time, as always.
- Good afternoon! Sorry to be a couple minutes late. Let's begin!
Tx Ranger stuff
- With what’s out there and what he’s gonna cost would you keep Adolis García and hope he hits? And what about Jonah Heim.
Steve Adams
- I think both are as good as done in Arlington. Garcia is going to make around $12MM after consecutive disappointing seasons at the plate. Heim took a huge step back and is going to earn around $6MM after a pair of ugly years. Chris Young alluded to payroll uncertainty when talking about Bochy's departure.
- At catcher, there isn't a ton out there in free agency beyond JT Realmuto, but the Rangers could try for Minnesota's Ryan Jeffers via trade or go more direct and sign Victor Caratini. I just don't think spending $6MM or so to hope Heim returns to his 2023 levels is where they'll go.
- In the outfield, they've got Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter. There'll be plenty of trade options even if the limited slate of corner OF bats in free agency doesn't appeal to them ... Lars Nootbaar, Taylor Ward, Brendan Donovan, Brenton Doyle, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, JJ Bleday, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach ... any of those names could be out there in trade talks.
Buster Posey
- Outside of 2B and RF, where can I look to improve this club other than trying to stockpile quality arms?
Steve Adams
- Second base and right field are the primary avenues to bolstering the lineup in San Francisco, but they could also look at first base/DH and see if Bryce Eldridge can headline a package for a notable starter (e.g Joe Ryan, Andrew Abbott, etc.)Could also look into some of those same OF options I listed for the Rangers -- plus Tucker, Bellinger, Grisham, etc. -- and plug Heliot Ramos into more of a DH role.
Luis Arraez
- Am I playable at 3B anymore? Boston would be nice... Hell it's not like Casas will be healthy, I can play 1B by Memorial Day after Triston ruptures a fingernail or something
Steve Adams
- Cannot fathom someone signing Arraez to play third base. He's just a poor defender wherever he's at ... first base, maybe you could get something close to average, but even that's a stretch. I think Arraez is going to sign a contract that makes a lot of fans say "Uh, that's it?" But he's basically just a (very good) singles hitter with a middling OBP ... He's the type of guy I can see ending up with a boring one-year deal or maybe a cheap two/opt-out in February if he goes out looking for a notable long-term contract.
For Love of the Game
- Given that Scott Boras advises his clients to test the free agent waters, no team is really going to drain their top prospect ranks by offering so much for Skubal that the Tigers would write off contending in 2026 (and likely 2027) for a chance to be even better in later years, right? If I'm wrong, what would that offer look like?
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good evening everyone, hope you've enjoyed your week!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get it started
Twins
- They can say its not a rebuild all they want but what we're seeing seems clear. Why not just rip the band aid off, trade Pablo and Joe Ryan for a ton, and start over?
Bradke Hrbek
- Imagine a world where the Twins aren't inclined to continue their trade deadline fire sale this offseason... what kind of trade offer would convince them to give up Joe Ryan anyway?
Anthony Franco
- Yeah I expect both Ryan and Pablo to go by the deadline at the latest. Two years on each and even if they're hoping for an accelerated rebuild, the bullpen and bottom part of the lineup are in such bad shape that it's not fixable in one offseason
- As far as Ryan goes, I assume it looks pretty similar to the Crochet deal. I was a little lower on that one for the White Sox because I'm not a huge Braden Montgomery fan. But I assume Chicago viewed that as two of the 50-60 best prospects in MLB with Teel/Montgomery, a solid third piece in Meidroth, and then a lottery ticket reliever in Gonzalez
- Ryan's not as good as Crochet is now but I think it's debatable whether he's as valuable as Crochet was then. Higher ceiling with the lefty working in the upper 90s with huge strikeout rates, but Crochet had yet to show he could hold that level over a full season with an ace workload
Astros fan
- If Alonso leaves, do you think the Mets would have any interest in Christian Walker? How much of his salary do you think they would be willing to pay?
Anthony Franco
- I'd rather just see what Vientos can do there, but I'm probably lower on Walker than the rest of the MLBTR staff. I'd need the Astros to pay him into the $8-10M range annually to consider it, and only after I've exhausted other options on the FA market
- The defensive grades collapsed. He was essentially unplayable in the first half, very good in July and August, then pretty bad again in September. Chase up a little bit, contact way down. The trend lines are rough
Guarded Indian
- Not so much a question as a statement, but I really hope you guys are wrong about Nick C. coming to Cleveland. I'd rather run it with Kwan, Delauter, Valera in the OF, Manzardo at DH with Kayfus at first. Unfortunately, this does seem exactly like the kind of move my Guards would do.
Anthony Franco
- I agree, don't love the fit there and would rather have Kayfus/Manzardo split 1B/DH. Seems like Nick feels differently (though he's also just highlighting a few possibilities for a low-stakes poll) and it's true that they need better out of right field, but I assume DeLauter's going to end up there. I wouldn't want Castellanos playing the outfield every day
Omar Minaya
- Seems to be increasing smoke around a potential Skubal trade. How would you rank the potential suitors?
Alex
- For so many reasons, I don't think it particularly likely from either side, but out of curiosity, if the Tigers were to make Skubal available, what sort of cost would teams be looking at? For my frame of reference, let's say it's the Cubs inquiring. It seems like something that would be so astronomical that no team would consider it, but to reference the Yankees/Soto trade a few years ago (which feels like a similar situation) it's not like that set the Yankees back too much. Is Skubal in another tier than Soto, or would we be looking at something similar?
Anthony Franco
- I disagree that there's increased smoke about Skubal getting traded. They lowballed him on an old extension offer. It doesn't look great, but it's not like it impacted his 2025 performance
- Doubt they're getting an extension done but I never expected them to. I'd be floored if they didn't hold him into next season and be prepared to QO him after what they hope is a long playoff run
- If they did trade him, I think it's a better return than what San Diego got for Soto. He's making half the arbitration salary that Soto was and top-end pitchers take on an increased importance in the playoffs. A team is only trading for Skubal if they think they're inner circle contenders
- But the Tigers are coming off consecutive playoff berths. They have an elite farm system already. They just squandered the division in part because they were too conservative at the deadline, and they're not under any short-term financial constraints with Skubal/Baez as their only notable contracts. If they trade Skubal now, at what point are they actually trying to win?
Tony Torcato
- Should the Giants pull the plug on Marco Luciano, and possibly even Luis Matos? Heliot Ramos might also be on the bubble for his subpar defense in LF and regression at the plate, would you agree/disagree? Giants need to remake their outfield, and concentrate on pitching and defense to get back to a championship level, imo.
Anthony Franco
- Pretty close to it. I probably wouldn't keep Luciano on the 40 all offseason, it's just not going to work. I still have a semblance of hope for Matos as a decent role player but he's out of options so he might get squeezed out during Spring Training
- They're not cutting Ramos though. Even if they wanted to focus on outfield defense, they could trade him
Dan S.
- Trent Grisham and Harrison Bader are coming off very good platform years, but both looked more like second-division regulars or part-time/platoon guys in recent seasons. Grisham's offensive breakout came with an alarming defensive drop and Bader's wOBA outperformed is xwOBA by a massive .043 points. What kind of contracts are they looking at this winter?
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Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks' pitching staff was battered by injuries, leading to a deadline sell-off of most of their impending free agents. Arizona played surprisingly well in the second half to remain in the Wild Card picture. They came up a little short of a postseason berth, and they're now faced with the task of rebuilding the pitching while navigating an expected payroll cut.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Corbin Burnes, RHP: $170MM through 2030 ($10-11MM deferred annually; Burnes can opt out after '26)
- Ketel Marte, 2B: $102.5MM through 2031 (Marte can opt out after '30)
- Corbin Carroll, RF: $102MM through 2030 (including buyout of '31 club option)
- Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP: $46MM through 2027 (including buyout of '28 mutual/vesting option)
- Geraldo Perdomo, SS: $45MM through 2030 (including buyout of '31 club option; 2028-30 salaries likely to escalate with expected top 10 MVP finish)
- Brandon Pfaadt, RHP: $45MM through 2030 (including buyout of '31 club option)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr., LF: $18MM player option for 2026 (including buyout of '27 club option)
- Justin Martinez, RHP: $14.5MM through 2029 (deal includes club options for 2030-32)
Option Decisions
- LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has $18MM player option ($13MM salary plus $5MM buyout on '27 club option valued at $14MM)
Additional financial commitment: Owe $100K buyout to released RHP Kendall Graveman
2026 guarantees: $101.1MM
Total future commitments: $543.1MM through 2031
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Ildemaro Vargas (5.129): $1.4MM
- A.J. Puk (5.124): $3.3MM
- Ryan Thompson (5.095): $3.9MM
- Kevin Ginkel (5.033): $3MM
- John Curtiss (4.078): $1.2MM
- Pavin Smith (4.015): $2.4MM
- Alek Thomas (3.103): $2.2MM
- Kyle Nelson (3.081): $1MM
- Jake McCarthy (3.074): $1.9MM
- Gabriel Moreno (3.061): $2.4MM
- Ryne Nelson (3.020): $3.3MM
Non-tender candidates: Vargas, Puk, Thompson, Ginkel, Curtiss, Kyle Nelson, McCarthy
Free Agents
A few hints about the Diamondbacks' winter have already emerged courtesy of owner Ken Kendrick. The team's solid performance after the trade deadline ensured that skipper Torey Lovullo and his coaching staff would be back with as little as one change. The expectation will still be to contend, but the front office will have less payroll room with which to work. Kendrick said that the club plans to reduce spending after pushing the payroll to a franchise-record $187MM Opening Day mark this year (via Cot's Baseball Contracts).
Arizona will have around $100MM in guaranteed commitments once Lourdes Gurriel Jr., who is recovering from ACL surgery, inevitably passes on the chance to opt out of the remaining $18MM on his contract. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the arbitration class to come in around $26MM if everyone were tendered a contract. Only Gabriel Moreno, Ryne Nelson, Alek Thomas and probably Pavin Smith feel like locks for that. Ildemaro Vargas, John Curtiss, Kevin Ginkel and Kyle Nelson should all be fairly easy cuts. That leaves a handful of borderline tender decisions.
Whether to bring back A.J. Puk is entirely a health question. He's one of the best left-handed relievers in the game, but he underwent internal brace surgery in June. That's the second UCL procedure of his career. The internal brace usually comes with a lesser recovery timeline than the full Tommy John reconstruction. If the D-Backs expect Puk to return around the All-Star Break, they should pay the $3-4MM which he'd make in arbitration.
If they're projecting more of a 14-15 month timeline that'd raise doubts about his availability for the entire season, a non-tender has to be a consideration. Puk will be a free agent after the '26 campaign, so there's no point tendering him a contract just to rehab. The Snakes could also reach out to Puk's camp before the non-tender deadline to see if they're open to a two-year deal that'd ensure the pitcher gets paid next year while the team gets the upside of a full season in 2027.
Ryan Thompson is coming off a middling season and missed most of the second half with a shoulder strain. He pitched well in September and the Snakes need bullpen help, but a near-$4MM projection feels a bit rich. Meanwhile, Jake McCarthy is coming off a sub-replacement season in which he hit .204/.247/.345 across 222 big league plate appearances. He'll be out of minor league options. McCarthy has had flashes of MLB success and is projected for a sub-$2MM salary, but the Snakes could try to shop him in a sell-low trade. If they don't find any interest, they'll need to decide whether to tender him a contract as a fourth or fifth outfielder.
While the Diamondbacks have a fairly large arbitration class, their deadline sale left them with only three impending free agents. Journeyman reliever Jalen Beeks and backup catcher James McCann each played their roles well enough. The Diamondbacks could get either of them back on a cheap one-year deal. Their biggest potential loss is Zac Gallen, a one-time candidate for a nine figure deal who hits the market after an uneven showing.
Gallen pitched so poorly in the first half that Arizona didn't find a trade offer to their liking. They were comfortable making him a $22.025MM qualifying offer if other clubs didn't meet their asking price. Gallen is still expected to decline the QO coming off a 4.83 ERA over 33 starts. He's represented by the Boras Corporation, which has had success finding two-year deals with an opt-out rather than straight one-year pillow contracts. Gallen, who is going into his age-30 season, is a candidate for that kind of deal.
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Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have a new owner and (hopefully) their old ballpark, as the plan is for a renovated and restored Tropicana Field to be ready for the start of the 2026 season. Beyond those significant details, it may be an otherwise relatively normal Rays offseason, as the team looks to juggle payroll and churn the roster in the hopes of returning to contention.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Yandy Diaz, 1B: $12MM through 2026 (Rays hold $10MM club option for 2027; becomes guaranteed for $13MM if Diaz has 500 plate appearances in 2026)
- Drew Rasmussen, SP: $6MM through 2026 (includes $500K buyout of $8MM club option for 2027)
Option Decisions
- Pete Fairbanks, RP: $11MM club option ($1MM buyout)
- Brandon Lowe, 2B: $11.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
- Taylor Walls, SS: $2.45MM club option ($50K buyout; Rays have arbitration control over Walls through 2027 whether they exercise the option or not)
2026 financial commitments (if Fairbanks/Lowe options are exercised): $40MM
Total future commitments (if Fairbanks/Lowe options are exercised): $40.5MM
Other Financial Obligations
- Wander Franco, SS: Owed $164MM through 2032, but isn't being paid while on MLB's restricted list.
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Shane McClanahan (4.158): $3.6MM
- Cole Sulser (4.096): $1.2MM
- Taylor Walls (4.092): $2MM
- Griffin Jax (4.091): $3.6MM
- Garrett Cleavinger (4.060): $2.1MM
- Shane Baz (3.158): $3.1MM
- Nick Fortes (3.149): $2.4MM
- Christopher Morel (3.117): $2.6MM
- Stuart Fairchild (3.114): $900K
- Josh Lowe (3.093): $2.9MM
- Bryan Baker (3.049): $1.5MM
- Ryan Pepiot (3.005): $3.7MM
- Alex Faedo (2.169): $800K
- Richie Palacios (2.156): $1MM
- Kevin Kelly (2.156): $1MM
- Edwin Uceta (2.150): $1.4MM
- Non-tender candidates: Walls, Fortes, Morel, Fairchild, Faedo, Kelly
Free Agents
Matt Silverman and Brian Auld have stepped down from their longtime roles as Rays co-presidents, and some other internal changes are inevitable now that Patrick Zalupski's ownership group has taken the reins. However, the changes won't extend to president of baseball ops Erik Neander, with Zalupski making a point of stating during his introductory press conference that his group has a "self-imposed rule" that "none of us, and none of the partners, are allowed to talk to or have any influence on baseball operations."
The chief short-term goal for Zalupski's group is to finally secure a new ballpark in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area, with the lofty aim of having this new stadium in place for the start of the 2029 season. It seems like a lot to achieve in less than three and a half years' time, but the bottom line is familiar for Rays fans --- the player payroll doesn't seem likely to change until that new stadium is in place, and new revenues start flowing.
Assuming that the Trop's renovations are completed on schedule, returning to their former ballpark at least represents some relief for the Rays after a season spent at Steinbrenner Field. The adjustment to suddenly playing home games in a minor league park, and playing outdoors in the tough Florida weather, seemed to take its toll on the Rays as the 2025 campaign rolled along. Tampa Bay was 47-36 on June 28 and in the thick of the AL East race, but stumbled to a 30-49 record the rest of the way.
Since the Rays were also 80-82 in 2024, this season's subpar record can't be entirely written off as a creation of Steinbrenner Field. The magic formula hasn't entirely worked for Neander and company in the last two years, even if the Rays have remained quasi-competitive. This could mean that Tampa Bay might not be far away from a full-fledged return to contention, since a lot still went right for the team in 2025.
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MLB Mailbag: Alonso, Skubal, Grisham
This week's mailbag gets into Pete Alonso's reported contract demand, the Tigers and Tarik Skubal, possible Trent Grisham suitors, and much more.
Chris asks:
Alonso saying he is seeking a 7 year deal is essentially him saying that he's out of Queens. So if you're Stearns, is the play to go all out for Murakami? Short-term on a Josh Naylor? Or give the keys to Clifford, strengthen up elsewhere like CF, 3B, DH to supplement the offense now you don't have Pete? Or just really go all in on your "Run Prevention" Plan, go get a Skubal or Skenes, sign Valdez or Cease and fortify the defense. There's a lot of questions for the Mets who honestly feel like they are only a few pieces for being a legit World Series Contender again.
Abner asks:
Pete Alonso is asking for a 7 year deal (he will be 31 by the beginning of next season) and David Stearns does not like that type of commitment for players in the wrong side of the 30's. It is known that the Mets are showing interest in NPB player Munetaka Murakami who is a slugger in Japan, but is not yet proven against MLB pitching. Murakami also comes with some concerns (poor plate discipline/not excel with defense), but based on recent Japanese stars that have come to MLB (Roki Sasaki/Yoshinobu Yamamoto/Seiya Suzuki) we could expect him to command a longer and more expensive deal than the one Alonso is looking for. Additionally, there will be no other first basemen of that same caliber available in this offseason free agency class. So, how feasible for the Mets would be to get a deal done with Pete Alonso and how that deal would look like? Thanks in advance.
On Saturday, Mike Puma of the New York Post wrote, "Alonso, who turns 31 in December, is expected to seek a contract of at least seven years — a length consistent with deals the player’s agent, Scott Boras, completed in recent seasons for Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman at the same age (Chapman received a six-year extension from the Giants after his first season with the club on a different contract)."
Start with the fact that both of those comps are a major stretch for Alonso.
Semien did indeed sign a seven-year deal heading into his age-31 season. This came off a monster 6-WAR campaign, Semien's second in three years. Alonso has not even reached 4 WAR since he was a rookie. The gap in defensive value on the two is enormous. Semien was a Gold Glove second baseman who was also capable of playing shortstop.
Puma makes a case that Alonso's first base defense isn't as bad as the metrics suggest, because he's good at making scoops. That may be true, but he's still a pretty clear net negative given what two completely different metrics, Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved, say.
More crucially, Semien was an up-the-middle player, not a first baseman who's expected to move to DH soon. Semien's defensive abilities have sustained 2+ WAR value even as his offense has slipped below league average. And Semien's seventh year, brought about by a level of free agent competition Alonso is unlikely to have, looks regrettable.
Chapman's deal was not signed on the open market. It's a six-year extension covering age 32-37. I suppose a case can be made that if a 32-year-old can get six years, a 31-year-old should get seven. Like Semien, defense is a huge part of Chapman's game, making him a poor comp for Alonso.
The correct comps are other first basemen, plus designated hitters. Modern GMs have clearly demonstrated they will not give first basemen and DHs long-term deals. The fact that no one offered Alonso a good one last year was not entirely due to the qualifying offer. It has been nearly four years since a free agent first baseman of any age signed for even five years. That was Freddie Freeman getting six in March 2022. Freeman clearly a better hitter than Alonso is.
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Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox
The Reinsdorf era may be drawing to a close. With clean books and many unsettled positions, do the White Sox have any bold offseason moves up their sleeve?
Guaranteed Contracts
- Andrew Benintendi, LF: $31MM through 2027
Option Decisions
- Luis Robert Jr., CF: $20MM club option ($2MM buyout); deal includes $20MM club option for 2027
- Martin Perez, SP: $10MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout)
Total 2026 commitments (if Robert's option is exercised): $38MM
Total long-term commitments (if Robert's option is exercised): $52.5MM through 2027
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)
- Mike Tauchman (5.143): $3.4MM
- Steven Wilson (3.166): $1.5MM
- Derek Hill (3.040): $1MM
Non-tender candidates: Wilson, Hill
Free Agents
- Tyler Alexander, Michael A. Taylor (retired)
In last year's Offseason Outlook, we briefly touched on the bigger-picture questions of who will own the White Sox long-term and where they will play in 2030. One of those questions has likely been answered. In June of this year, the team announced that "Jerry Reinsdorf and Justin Ishbia have reached a long-term investment agreement that establishes a framework for Ishbia to obtain a future controlling interest in the White Sox," adding that "Ishbia will make capital infusions into the White Sox as a limited partner in 2025 and 2026 that will be used to pay down existing debt and support ongoing team operations."
That's the headline, but the details are crucial:
"The agreement provides that, from 2029–33, Reinsdorf will have the option to sell the controlling interest to Ishbia. After the 2034 season, Ishbia will have the option to acquire the controlling interest. In the event of any such future transaction, all limited partners of the Sox would have the opportunity to sell to Ishbia at that time. In addition to Justin Ishbia, his brother Mat Ishbia, and father Jeff Ishbia will also be significant investors. There is no assurance that any such future transaction will occur, and in no event will such a transaction take place before 2029."
If you've got 20 minutes to spare, check out this discussion between Alex Maragos of NBC 5 Chicago and Jon Greenberg of The Athletic, who has done a lot of reporting on this planned transfer of ownership. You'll hear the word "transformative" thrown around, but there's no reason to expect a significant player payroll increase in the near future. White Sox fans have a new sense of hope about the future of the franchise, but for the 2025-26 offseason, we don't expect much of an Ishbia effect.
The 2025 White Sox were just normal bad, rather than historically bad. It was the team's third consecutive 100-loss season, with a 60-102 record. The White Sox ranked 14th in the AL with 3.99 runs scored per game. The starting rotation ranked 11th with a 4.39 ERA, while the bullpen checked in at 10th with a 4.16 mark. The defense seemed to be bottom-five in the league.
Despite that, positives are emerging. The White Sox have established a Kyle Teel-Edgar Quero job-share at catcher. Teel came up in June and posted 1.9 fWAR in 78 games, including a 125 wRC+ at the plate that ranked sixth among all catchers. Shortstop Colson Montgomery came up in July and slugged at a level well beyond anything he'd done at Triple-A: a 129 wRC+ with 21 home runs in just 284 plate appearances.
On the pitching side, GM Chris Getz snagged Shane Smith from the Brewers in the Rule 5 draft last winter, and he remarkably became the team's All-Star representative. The righty, 26 in April, faltered in the middle of the summer but posted a 3.09 ERA and 27.1 K% over his final ten starts.
First base was a bit of a black eye. The White Sox justifiably gave up on former third overall pick Andrew Vaughn, optioning him to Triple-A in May and sending him to the Brewers for pitcher Aaron Civale in mid-June. The Brewers brought Vaughn up a few weeks later and he put up a surprising and robust 142 wRC+ in 254 plate appearances, plus a couple of key home runs in the Division Series against the Cubs.
The White Sox never really settled on a first baseman after moving on from Vaughn, with guys like Tim Elko, Ryan Noda, and trade deadline pickup Curtis Mead getting looks. The majority of starts went to Miguel Vargas, who also played a bunch of third base. Vargas flashed signs of life in May and August, but overall his 101 wRC+ doesn't really play for a starter at an infield corner. So what can be done?
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat, Today 3pm CT
Steve Adams
- Good afternoon! I'll get this going in a couple hours, but feel free to submit questions ahead of time, as always.
- Hello there!
- Let's get underway
Mariners
- Mariners have announced starters for games 3 and 4 already, and woo is not among them. Do you think he appears in the ALCS at all?
Steve Adams
- Adam Jude with the Seattle Times reported a bit ago that they're targeting a Game 5 start for Woo, so as long as the M's don't sweep, yeah I expect to see him.
Gavin Cordes
- Should the Padres trade Pivetta for prospects and use that money to sign King longterm
Steve Adams
- This might've felt more plausible if King had repeated his 2024 season, but his earning power was crushed pretty heavily by all the health struggles this year. I think they can probably find a way to try to keep him on a creative deal like the ones president AJ Preller has dreamt up with Robert Suarez, Nick Martinez and Pivetta himself. The Padres are pretty good at manipulating player options and back/front-loading contracts to mitigate the CBT hit but do so with a notable guarantee and a crack at returning to free agency early for the player in question.And really, because of that, I doubt Pivetta has the value many would see upon first glance at his numbers. He can opt back into free agency next season.Pivetta was only paid $4MM this year. He's still guaranteed $51MM over three years, with $19MM of that paid out in 2026.
- Any team trading for him knows that if he pitches like he did in '25, he's opting out, effectively rendering him a one-year rental. If he struggles or suffers a major injury, they're on the hook for $51MM guaranteed.
- As with all player option/opt-out contracts, there's just far more downside than there is upside.
Eutaw Street
- I know Alonso wants a 7 year deal, but those long term deals are just not popular with teams anymore. And I think it’s even less likely for a power hitting first baseman. Could something like a 4 year/$180 million deal with a 5 year player option do it for Alonso?
Steve Adams
-
- I don't think Alonso has any delusions of signing a 7-year deal this winter, and I don't think any team in its right mind would do 4/180. We're going to end up predicting some $60-70MM less than that on our top 50
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Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals
The Nationals hoped the 2025 season would represent a step forward in their rebuild, but the opposite took place. The results were discouraging enough that ownership fired not only manager Davey Martinez but longtime president/general manager Mike Rizzo, who'd run the team's baseball operations for nearly two decades. A new front office regime will try to turn things around for a club that won more games in 2024 (71) than in 2025 (66).
Guaranteed Contracts
- Keibert Ruiz, C: $35MM through 2030 (contract contains club options for 2031-32; neither has a buyout)
- Trevor Williams, RHP: $7MM through 2026
- Shinnosuke Ogasawara, LHP: $2MM through 2026
Other Financial Commitments
- $35MM in dead money owed to RHP Stephen Strasburg
Total 2026 commitments: $49MM
Total long-term commitments: $79MM through 2030
Option Decisions
- None
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz):
- Jorge Alfaro (5.160): $1MM
- Luis Garcia Jr. (4.142): $7MM
- Josiah Gray (4.075): $1.35MM
- Mason Thompson (4.022): $1MM
- MacKenzie Gore (4.000): $4.7MM
- Riley Adams (3.171): $1.5MM
- CJ Abrams (3.130): $5.6MM
- Jake Irvin (2.152): $3.3MM
- Cade Cavalli (2.141): $1.3MM
Non-tender candidates: Alfaro, Garcia, Thompson, Adams
Free Agents
The Nationals' summer ousting of Rizzo kicked off an executive search while longtime Rizzo lieutenant Mike DeBartolo ran baseball operations through the trade deadline and the end of the season. Washington spoke with executives from multiple clubs and ultimately settled on Red Sox assistant general manager Paul Toboni to head up the organization. Because he was in the running to be promoted to Red Sox general manager under chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, Toboni was hired with the title president of baseball operations. The Nats could hire a GM to work underneath him at some point, but it wasn't framed as an immediate priority at Toboni's introductory press conference.
Changes in the front office have already begun. The Nats will retain DeBartolo in a yet-to-be-announced role, but assistant GMs Eddie Longosz and Mark Scialabba are set to depart the organization amid further changes in the scouting department. Even if Toboni doesn't immediately add a general manager, it seems likely that he'll bring on some new hires to take over some of the AGM and scouting responsibilities (particularly if DeBartolo is moved to a role other than assistant general manager).
The Nats will also need to hire a new skipper. Interim manager Miguel Cairo is a candidate in the team's ongoing search, Toboni indicated this week, but the Nationals are also in the process of interviewing candidates from outside the organization. Washington is one of an incredible seven teams looking for a new manager and one of an even more remarkable nine clubs that will have a different manager on Opening Day 2026 than on Opening Day 2025.
Of course, beyond the broader changes at the highest levels of the organization, fans are more concerned with what the offseason will look like under the new regime. Toboni naturally didn't delve into specifics at his introduction. He spoke in general terms, repeatedly mentioning the desire to build a "scouting and player development monster" that eventually stands as the envy of the industry.
Even more pressing, however, is what the future holds for some of the organization's key young players. While emerging outfielders like James Wood and Daylen Lile are controlled for another five-plus seasons, many of the team's other most important contributors are already halfway -- or more -- through their original level of club control. That'll put Toboni in an interesting spot this winter as he looks to determine whether some of his core players are building blocks or whether they're best used as trade currency to further stock a farm system that, even after picking No. 1 overall in July and trading several players at the 2025 deadline, ranked 21st in the majors at Baseball America and 23rd at MLB.com.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon everyone, hope you're well! Looking forward to another of these, let's get going
NY Reds
- Would Benge Or Jett Williams be enough to get Lodolo? Mets must be in on Zach Littel right?
Anthony Franco
- I think Benge would at least get their attention. Doubt the Reds would be super keen on moving Lodolo for a prospect but unless they're way down on him because he had a bad few weeks in Triple-A, Benge seems like the kind of talent who'd get their attention. Not as convinced on Williams, whose offensive ceiling seems lower
- Littell for the Mets? Sure. He's kind of boring though, that'd need to be their second of two rotation acquisitions
RJ
- Do the Angels bring back Moncada to play 3rd next season? Or do they look elsewhere?
Anthony Franco
- Moncada has to be like Plan F. If he's the only option available in February for $5M again, sure. They'll probably make a run at Geno, could trade for Alec Bohm or wait and see if the Phils non-tender him
Glenn inSeattle
- How are the Mariners going to fill their openings at 1st and 3rd?
Anthony Franco
- I buy that they're going to try to keep Naylor. If he ends up at four years in the low-mid 70s, I could see them doing that. If it gets to five years and closer to $100M, not so much. I'd probably put them on a Ryan O'Hearn type fallback at that point
- Not sure they need to as big at third. Emerson's not far off, Williamson can handle the position defensively if nothing else. If they bring Polanco back to rotate between 2B/3B/DH and still have Bliss and Young in the mix at second, I feel like that's enough to at least bide their time to see if Emerson can take the job in the second half
Dan S.
- When will the MLBTR Top 50 come out? One of my favorite bookmarks every off-season.
Anthony Franco
- Five days after the end of the World Series
- That's the cutoff point for teams/players to make option decisions and teams to decide whether to issue qualifying offers. There aren't many guys who'll make the Top 50 if the team declines a club option (Imanaga this year would be the main candidate) but player option/QO decisions have a big impact on the market, so we wait until those are in
- Also planning to do a top offseason trade candidates list (probably not 50 but at least 20-30) that we expect to drop the morning after the World Series ends
Baseball been very, very good to me.
- Who do you think matches up better with the Dodgers in a seven game series, Cubs or Brewers and why? Who do you think will win tomorrow nights game 5, assuming the starters are Imanaga and Misirowski? Obviously, the starters are sppeculative and both would be on super sjhort leashes.
Hope
- Any teams that have a good shot of beating the Dodgers? I am so worried by how they are ruining baseball. They are gonna go back to back
Anthony Franco
- I'll still take Milwaukee but predicting any single MLB postseason game is 55-45 at best
- I do think the Brewers have a better shot at beating the Dodgers. I'd consider L.A. the favorite over either of them but it's not like they're unbeatable with that bullpen
- Sasaki being a lights out reliever has been huge so far. Their actual relievers aside from Vesia are pretty bad
Cat_Herder
- You're Toronto. Would you rather Detroit or Seattle win tonight?
Anthony Franco
- Detroit. I think Seattle's a deeper overall team and the Jays wouldn't see Skubal until Game 3
- Non-zero chance that they'd only have to face him once in the series, especially if they take the first two at home
Stockholm, AZ
- Hey Anthony! I know pitching is top priority, but who will play the outfield for the Diamondbacks next year? Hard to believe they won’t at least try to trade McCarthy or Thomas. And who will be on the infield corners? Lawlar has looked lost so far.
Anthony Franco
- Yeah I'm coming increasingly around on the idea that they'll dangle Lawlar for pitching. Another team that'd probably need to be in on Bohm or Josh Jung if they do that. Blaze Alexander's a utility guy
- Agree that they also need to add an outfielder, though I think it'll probably be a lower-cost platoon type given the expected payroll rollback and their pitching needs
- Carroll, Thomas and an Austin Hays type. Hope for Lourdes to make it back around the All-Star Break and/or that Ryan Waldschmidt hits his way to the majors quickly
Duffy S Cliff
- What are potential landing spots for Munetaka Murakami? Could my Red Sox go after him? What do you think his ceiling is in MLB?
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Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds made the postseason in a 162-game schedule for the first time in 12 years. They looked overmatched against the Dodgers and were swept out of the Wild Card Series. This year was a nice stepping stone, but the Reds need to add a couple bats to pull alongside the true best teams in the National League.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Hunter Greene, RHP: $41MM through 2028 (including buyout of ’29 club option)
- Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B: $36MM through 2029 (including buyout of '30 club option)
- Jose Trevino, C: $11.25MM through 2027 (including buyout of '28 club option)
Other Financial Commitments
- Owe $15MM to released 3B Jeimer Candelario
Option Decisions
- Team, OF Austin Hays hold $12MM mutual option ($1MM buyout)
- Team holds $6.5MM option on RHP Scott Barlow ($1MM buyout)
- Team holds $3MM option on LHP Brent Suter ($250K buyout)
2026 financial commitments: $37.5MM
Total future commitments: $105.5MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Brady Singer (5.156): $11.9MM
- Santiago Espinal (5.149): $2.9MM
- Gavin Lux (5.114): $5MM
- Tyler Stephenson (5.056): $6.4MM
- Ian Gibaut (4.077): $1.5MM
- Sam Moll (4.023): $1.2MM
- Nick Lodolo (4.000): $4.3MM
- Graham Ashcraft (3.130): $1.4MM
- TJ Friedl (3.112): $4.9MM
- Tony Santillan (3.099): $2.4MM
- Spencer Steer (3.035): $4.5MM
- Will Benson (3.003): $1.7MM
- Matt McLain (2.140): $2.6MM
Non-tender candidates: Lux, Espinal, Gibaut, Moll, Benson
Free Agents
The Reds ranked 14th in MLB with 4.42 runs per game. That's an underwhelming mark for a team that plays in one of the league's most favorable hitter's parks. They'll need to improve upon a .245/.315/.391 batting line. The offense should be the offseason priority, but their first couple decisions are in the bullpen.
Cincinnati holds options on relievers Scott Barlow and Brent Suter. It's an easy call to move on from Barlow, who'll receive a $1MM buyout. They'll probably also opt for a $250K buyout on Suter, as the Cincinnati native struggled to a 7.36 ERA after the All-Star Break. Closer Emilio Pagán hits the market following one of the best seasons of his career. Nick Martinez will again be a free agent after playing this year on a $21.05MM qualifying offer salary.
If Pagán walks, the Reds could be in the market for a closer. They're not going to spend at the level it'd take to bring in Edwin Díaz, nor does a splash for Robert Suarez seem advisable given their needs on offense. Old friend Raisel Iglesias will be available on a one or two-year deal at age 36, though he pitched well enough with Atlanta to command an eight-figure salary. Kenley Jansen will sign a decent one-year deal, while Ryan Helsley and Michael Kopech are probably looking for pillow contracts. Devin Williams, Brad Keller, Luke Weaver, Kyle Finnegan and Pagán himself should all be looking at multi-year contracts -- though it'd be a surprise if Pagán commands more than two guaranteed years entering his age-35 season.
Tony Santillan, Graham Ashcraft and Connor Phillips are Cincy's top returning leverage arms. Santillan has a little bit of closing experience, while Phillips has shown wipeout stuff with hit-or-miss command. If the Reds find the prices too high on free agent closers, perhaps they'll let Santillan and Phillips compete for the ninth inning while pursuing a setup type like Tyler Rogers or Phil Maton. In any case, they should bring in at least one back-end arm.
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