MLB Mailbag: Cubs, Mets, Guardians, Athletics
This week's mailbag gets into offseason possibilities for the Cubs and Mets and also includes questions on the Angels, Guardians, and A's.
Walter asks:
With the Cubs probably not getting serious on Tucker, how much money will the Cubs have to spend and what are the likely targets to hopefully build a champion next year? Starting pitching? Bullpen?
Colin asks:
How should the Cubs replace Kyle Tucker? It feels like keeping it internal with a combo of Seiya and Caissie and Alcantara in RF and the first two and Ballesteros at DH won't make up for Tucker's production. Curious if there are any good targets out there for them to pursue.
Kelly asks:
The Cubs have several players going into next season in their final year. What do you predict will happen with Boyd, Suzuki, Happ and Hoerner? I know some of it is predicated on Tucker, but which are the priorities in your opinion to extend or trade this off-season? Where do Ballesteros, Amaya, Cassie and Long factor into their decision?
Nick asks:
Tucker leaves, Caissie in right, and sign Bregman. Can the Cubs package Happ and Shaw together for a controllable starter? Anybody come to mind?
It seems odd to get into the Cubs' offseason as they host the Padres in the Wild Card Series, but I received many of these questions and I aim to please with this mailbag.
The Cubs will easily come in below the $241MM competitive balance tax this year, after going a little bit over in 2024. They were also under the CBT from 2021-23.
Regular season attendance was up 3.7% this year, plus at least a few playoff games are taking place at Wrigley Field. In theory, the Cubs could get into the range of the $244MM threshold, if president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer sees reasonable ways to spend that money. So what do the 2026 commitments look like?
- Dansby Swanson - $25.3MM
- Ian Happ - $20.3MM
- Seiya Suzuki - $17MM
- Jameson Taillon - $17MM
- Matthew Boyd - $14.5MM
- Nico Hoerner - $11.7MM
- Carson Kelly - $5.75MM
I'll also make a few option assumptions:
- Cubs will pick up Andrew Kittredge's $9MM club option
- Cubs will pick up Colin Rea's $6MM club option
- Cubs will pick up Shota Imanaga's three-year, $57MM club option. I'm not entirely sure on the CBT hit in this case, but $19MM should be close enough for our purposes.
There is a case to be made for declining Imanaga's three-year option, but we can get into that another time.
I dared to enter Matt Swartz's top-secret arbitration lab, in the basement of the MLB Trade Rumors building, to beg for some early numbers. But the Cubs' class is only Justin Steele, Javier Assad, Reese McGuire, and Eli Morgan. We can just worry about Steele and Assad, who have respective projections of $6.55MM and $1.9MM.
These 12 players, plus other stuff such as player benefits, brings the team's estimated CBT payroll to $176MM. If these estimates are generally correct, the Cubs will enter the 2026-27 offseason about $68MM shy of the $244MM CBT threshold. There's space to spend some serious money this winter!
Assessing potential Cubs targets will require a team breakdown!
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- The offseason and postseason are here! Well, kind of. Not really. No playoff games until tomorrow and no formal offseason transactions until after the postseason, but you get the point. Let's talk offseason, playoffs, weird collapses and whatever else is on your mind! I'll get rolling at 3pm or so, but as always, feel free to submit questions ahead of time.
- Good afternoon!
- Let's get underway
Lefty
- Eldridge and Schmitt from SF to MIA for X.Edwards. Who says no?
Steve Adams
- Highly doubt the Giants would give up Eldridge alone for Edwards
Trout Phishin'
- What does the contract look like for Kyle Schwarber to stay in Philadelphia?
Steve Adams
- To me, looks like $120MM+ wherever he goes
Dan S.
- What's more likely for Dylan Cease, 2/70 with an opt-out or 6/180?
Steve Adams
- The AAV on that two-year deal is too steep, but in general, two years and an opt-out feels more likely to me than him just getting $30MM per year over six seasons.
- Something like 2/50 with an out feels more feasible than 2/70
Guarded Indian
- I know there will be several Alonso questions today, but I'll throw mine in. I just don't see a huge market for the guy and think he should opt in. I think is best option besides the Mets is the Nationals as far as a position fit, possibly Texas. Most teams do not need a 1B or a DH and those that do likely can't afford him, especially when there is a much more affordable option available in a very good Josh Naylor. Am I wrong and where else could he possibly fit?
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon everyone, hope you're doing well!
- It's been a couple weeks. Glad to be back
Unclemike1526
- What is the total number of players for a Playoff rosters? Does it revert back to 26 or does it stay at 27? If so does Ballesteros even make the team if Tucker is back? Does it have to be 13-13? Thanks
Anthony Franco
- It reverts to 26 with a 13-pitcher maximum. Doesn't necessity need to be 13-13 and maybe for the Wild Card round you'll see a team go with 12 pitchers because it's a short series, but most teams will want as many pitchers as they can carry as it goes along
- Either way, they need to find room for Ballesteros. I'd probably drop Turner (and Santana, who's already out) but any of Turner, Castro or Alcantara seems plausible to me
- Willi hasn't hit at all. Alcantara's only really on hand in case PCA gets hurt and they need someone to step into CF. Turner's been a little better lately and provides a right-handed bat off the bench but they don't have that many LHH for whom they'd pinch hit anyway (it's basically just Busch) so I don't know that they really need one
this little piggyback cried oui oui all the way
- Most of the playoff contenders haven't even named their starters for Saturday and Sunday. Is this a new trend?
Anthony Franco
- Probably? The borderline playoff teams don't know yet if Sunday will be a must-win and they'll need to bring their best pitchers back on short rest
- Tigers would love to clinch by Saturday and have Skubal for Game 1 but they may not have that luxury. Astros are almost certainly going to need to bring Brown back on short rest as well
World Series Victor
- Is anyone going to topple Seattle? Or will we finally get to hoist the trophy?
Anthony Franco
- Obviously the odds are stacked heavily in favor of the field over any individual team but Seattle feels like the most complete team in the American League, at least. Tougher call when you pit them against Milwaukee and Philly but yeah, I'd probably have them as slight World Series favorites
The Knuder
- Which free agents, if any, do you see the Padres bringing back?
Anthony Franco
- Don't think it's all that likely they're keeping any of them besides Laureano, who has the easy yes on the club option
- Beyond that, King's the only one that I really see a path for, but it probably requires his market not materializing as hoped and turning to an opt-out situation
- Cease, Suarez, Arraez, ROH and Nestor all feel like they're gone. Diaz, Hart and Iglesias are minor league deal guys
Arise, Sir Loin of Beef
- Mets make the playoffs, yes or no? I'm guessing no.
Anthony Franco
- I still expect them to get in, though I'll admit that I'm kind of pulling for the Reds just to shake up the field
Dirt
- Thanks for the chat! Despite the broken hamate, Ozzie's option with the Braves next season is a no-brainer, right? If so, where does that leave Nacho? Utility infielder or trade bait? Is Nick Allen the odd man out?
Anthony Franco
- Agreed. $3M difference between the option price and the buyout gets you Kevin Newman or Luis Urías. Even with the downward trend and the injuries, Ozzie's better than those guys
- I think they'll trade Alvarez in a deal for some kind of pitching help. Nacho's not going to get you Joe Ryan or MacKenzie Gore but there'll be teams that'd like him in return for a back-end starter. Allen's glove-only profile fits better in a utility capacity. Probably need to work out a multi-year deal with HSK to keep him from opting out at that point
pitching chaos for everyone
- Will anyone pitch 7+ innings in one game this weekend?
Anthony Franco
- Haha Logan Webb goes Sunday at home against the Rockies. Might set the O/U at 8.2
john
- If Woodruff is out of the NLDS who takes the #3 start? Quintana/Miz/Patrick all come with high risk.
Anthony Franco
- I think it's Patrick, maybe after an opener. In any case, not extending that third "starter" to go more than 3-4 innings. Get to the bullpen at the first sign of trouble
TheBeatlesShow
- Hey, Anthony. Hope all is well. Remind me, weren't the Tigers called 'the best team in baseball' around the middle of the season? But the real questions: If they do lose the division, where does that stack up against the greatest collapses of all time? And, over the last month or so...or less than that, has Steven Vogt gotten himself a lot of votes for AL Mgr of the Year?
-
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Offseason Outlook: Athletics
An awful May ensured the A's were headed for another losing season. They made arguably the biggest sell-side trade at the deadline, sending Mason Miller to San Diego for a prospect package headlined by potential franchise shortstop Leo De Vries. The A's have quietly been one of the best teams in the American League for the final two months of the season. They're in for a second straight offseason focused primarily on pitching. It's not an easy task while they're in a Triple-A home ballpark that plays as one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the game.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Lawrence Butler, CF: $62.25MM through 2031 (including $2MM in yet to be paid signing bonuses and buyout of '32 club option)
- Brent Rooker, DH: $48MM through 2029 (deal includes '30 club/vesting option)
- Luis Severino, RHP: $47MM through 2027 (including $5MM signing bonus to be paid in January; can opt out after '26)
- Jeffrey Springs, LHP: $11.25MM through 2026 (including buyout of '27 club option)
2026 financial commitments: $45.75MM
Total future commitments: $168.5MM
Option Decisions
- None
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Austin Wynns (5.107): $1.8MM
- Shea Langeliers (3.051): $5.1MM
- JJ Bleday (3.029): $2.2MM
- Ken Waldichuk (2.150): $900K
- Luis Medina (2.146): $900K
Non-tender candidates: Wynns, Waldichuk
Free Agents
For the second straight year, the A's go into the offseason with positive momentum despite finishing with a losing record. They've been a better second half team in both 2024 and '25. That alone probably doesn't hold a ton of predictive value, but it's fair to have more optimism next spring than it was last offseason.
It appears ownership is satisfied with the direction of the rebuild. The A's extended manager Mark Kotsay last offseason on a deal that runs at least through 2028. General manager David Forst is reportedly on an expiring deal. However, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this morning that he's in talks with owner John Fisher about his future. Rosenthal suggests he could agree to at least a two-year extension that runs up to the team's expected opening of its Las Vegas ballpark.
They're on track to go into Vegas with a very good offense. Nick Kurtz has shredded major league pitching. Jacob Wilson is coming off the first of what should be multiple All-Star appearances at shortstop. Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom have taken steps forward offensively. Soderstrom also showed he's capable of playing better defense than expected in left field after being forced off first base by Kurtz's arrival. Even as Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler took steps back after fantastic 2024 seasons, this lineup runs six deep. The 18-year-old De Vries is a dynamic talent at the top of the farm system who has a good shot to pair with Wilson as an elite middle infield tandem down the line.
The A's don't have the same kind of young corps anchoring the pitching staff. Neither the Luis Severino signing nor the Jeffrey Springs trade stabilized the rotation as hoped (though Severino has been quite good down the stretch). Both pitchers have managed back-of-the-rotation results overall without missing a ton of bats. Neither has fared well at the A's temporary home park in Sacramento.
Severino blasted the arrangement when speaking with Brendan Kuty of The Athletic in June. Asked about his stark home/road splits, the righty said his road numbers were better "because we play in a big-league stadium on the road." He added that pitching in Sacramento is "not the same atmosphere. We don’t have a lot of fans. Our clubhouse is in left field. So, when we play day games, we have to just be in the sun."
The criticism was bizarre considering the A's went beyond general expectations to sign Severino to a three-year, $67MM contract last offseason. That price presumably baked in a cost for pitching in a minor league facility on a team without a true home city. Unsurprisingly, USA Today's Bob Nightengale suggested that Severino's comments were not well-received by A's brass. The team would've welcomed a chance to trade him at the deadline. Between the contract and Severino's lack of swing-and-miss stuff both at home and away, they were unable to find a taker.
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MLB Mailbag: Naylor, Eflin, Tucker, King, Realmuto
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This week's mailbag gets into the impending free agencies of Josh Naylor, Zach Eflin, Kyle Tucker, Michael King, and J.T. Realmuto, among other topics.
Stephen asks:
Josh Naylor in a mariners uniform next year would be wonderful. What would it take to make it happen?
This mailbag presents several opportunities to exercise my contract prediction muscles in advance of the MLBTR team collaborating on our Top 50 Free Agents list throughout October. So let's try to put a number on Naylor.
Naylor will be 29 next year, and not until June, so you get a good amount of age 28 as well. He's been even better in Seattle than Arizona, and this year's 126 wRC+ seems representative of his abilities for the next few years.
Somehow, Naylor has stolen 28 bags this year in 30 tries despite second percentile sprint speed. As I have said in this space, I love that as a fellow slow runner, but I don't think I'd bake it into his free agent valuation. Defensively, Naylor seems to rate as an acceptable first baseman. Overall, he's a guy you can pencil in for 2.5-3 WAR. He deserves intangible credit, too, in the clubhouse and with Mariners fans. The cherry on top: he's ineligible for a qualifying offer due to the July trade.
If you check out Darragh McDonald's podcast with Jerry Dipoto from earlier this month, they got into the difficulty of attracting free agents, particularly bats, to Seattle. Naylor, though, feels like he sees the ball well at T-Mobile Park, called it a "super cool stadium," and called the team's fans "awesome." In a park that suppresses offense by around 9%, Naylor is hitting .350/.398/.613 in 90 plate appearances since the trade. So if there is a free agent position player on whom the Mariners are going to line up for more than two years, which Dipoto has yet to do with the Ms, Naylor seems like the guy.
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Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Steve Adams
- 'Tis Monday. 'Tis chat day. I'll get going at 2pm CT, but feel free to send in questions in advance if you prefer!
- Let's get underway!
Kirk
- thoughts on Texas going after Freddy Peralta in the winter?
Steve Adams
- I don't see why they wouldn't. I imagine lots of teams will be interested in him, though. The Brewers hold an $8MM option that they'll obviously pick up. It's a matter of whether they move him to extract some significant prospect value in return or whether they just ride out his final year and recoup a high draft pick for him post-2026.Typically, they have gone the trade route, but they did hang onto Willy Adames for his full control window -- and Peralta is even cheaper and arguably more valuable than some of the guys they did trade when they were down to a year (or just over) of club control -- Hader, Burnes, Williams.
- Texas will have Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Jack Leiter locked into rotation spots. Tyler Mahle, Patrick Corbin and Merrill Kelly are free agents. You can't feel all that great about the health outlook of either deGrom or Eovaldi, despite deGrom staying healthy this year.
- They have plenty of prospect depth and some interesting young big leaguers they could include (Kumar Rocker, Josh Jung come to mind as former top prospects who might be trending toward change-of-scenery territory).There's no reason to suggest they won't pursue him -- but nothing uniquely positions them as any sort of favorite, either.
The Mayor
- Is Scott Harris or A.J. Hinch's job on the line with the latest Tigers meltdown? Harris especially should be under fire from ownership for his trade deadline moves.
Scott Harris
- Look, I still have all my top prospects. I thought our pitching looked good and needed minor tweeks. Maybe I need an eye exam?
this little piggyback
- I root for the Mets and the Tigers. Please talk me off the ledge.
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The Changing Landscape Of The Offseason Shortstop Market
For much of the 2025 season, it's looked as though Bo Bichette will be the only notable shortstop in free agency -- and it's been plenty fair to debate whether he's a shortstop at all. The 27-year-old has bounced back -- and then some -- at the plate, largely quieting concerns about his anemic performance with the bat in an injury-ruined 2024 season that saw him slash just .225/.277/.322 with four homers in 81 games. But whatever good will Bichette has regained with a resurgent performance in the batter's box has at least partially been offset by a career-worst year with the glove -- and now yet another lower-half injury.
Elsewhere in free agency, what once looked like an otherwise-barren class has now begun to show some potential upside. Narratives surrounding several potential free agents have begun to shift -- enough that it bears taking a lengthier look at what the winter might bring.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Darragh McDonald
- Hello, everyone. Anthony is off today, so I'm doing the Friday chat this week. Sorry to the Francoists out there.
- We'll be getting started a bit earlier than usual since I'm covering the afternoon news. Apologies to the West Coasters if that's annoying.
- Anyway, feel free to drop questions and I'll be back at 11 Central to answer them.
- Okay, happy Friday, everyone.
- If you're at work, I hope you're doing a good job pretending like you're doing something.
- Let's talk baseball.
Joe Baseball
- Will Zach Eflin will get a multi year contract if he doesn’t get a QO from Baltimore, or have to take a one year prove it deal? He should be fully recovered by January and he had back surgery, and his arm isn’t a problem. Thoughts?
Darragh McDonald
- I would guess one-year prove-it deal. He's been fairly injury-prone in his career and is coming off a pretty rough year.
Michael
- Do you think a trade between the Pirates and Mets for Mitch Keller is possible? Mets seem to have a glut of young infielders they could spare between Acuna, Baty, Mauricio, Acuna, etc that would be an immediate upgrade over what the Pirates have been trotting out there
Darragh McDonald
- I suppose there's a chance. Stearns kept adding more starters last offseason even when it seemed like they had plenty.
- Going into 2026, they've got McLean, Tong, Sproat, Holmes, Peterson, Senga, Megill, Manaea, Scott, and others.
- Doesn't seem like they need much more but I could have said the same thing last year when they kept adding Montas, Canning, etc.
- I wouldn't be surprised if Keller is available but I probably wouldn't pick the Mets as the most likely landing spot.
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MLB Mailbag: Cardinals, Orioles, Astros, Schwarber, Casas
This week's mailbag covers the trade value of Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, and Nolan Arenado, the Orioles' need this winter, the Astros' infield logjam, Kyle Schwarber's Hall of Fame candidacy, and how the Red Sox might approach first base next year.
Sam asks:
Assuming Willson Contreras agrees to waive his NTC, what sort of return would the Cardinals receive? Same question for Sonny Gray too please. (Assuming that Arenado is not moved or that the Cardinals eat most of his contract in exchange for a PTBNL or similar from his limited list of teams)
Hugh asks:
Assuming Arenado and Gray waive NTCs, what are the chances Cardinals can move them? Would Arenado be a non-tender candidate?
It's difficult to just assume Contreras, Gray, or Arenado would waive their no-trade clauses, even for the sake or argument. That's because those players would basically never entertain saying, "OK, I consent to a trade to any of the other 29 teams. Go for it!" They'd do something like what Arenado did last winter: provide a list of approved teams, and/or tell the GM you'll take it on a case-by-case basis if a deal is close.
I think these questions are more to get at what kind of trade value each player has, so let's assess that.
Contreras, 34 next May, became a full-time first baseman for the Cardinals this year. Perhaps a new team would consider using him behind the plate here or there, especially if the automated ball-strike system is implemented, but we'll mostly consider him a first baseman/DH.
Contreras dealt with some minor injuries this year, but had avoided the IL until today. His season has ended due to a right shoulder strain. Contreras managed to post a solid 123 wRC+ in a career-high 563 plate appearances, good for 2.8 FanGraphs WAR in 135 games.
If we give Contreras some grace for having to adjust to his new defensive duties in April, it's worth noting that he had a 135 wRC+ since May. This is a potential top-20 hitter in the game with plenty of red on his Statcast page who can arguably hang with the likes of Rafael Devers and Bryce Harper. I don't think Contreras has that reputation, but that's what I see. As a cherry on top, his first base defense appears to be average or better.
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Sandy Alcantara Is Finding His Old Form
The Marlins were expected to trade Sandy Alcantara at the deadline. The former Cy Young winner had returned from the Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2024 season. The hope was that he'd immediately recapture his ace form, demonstrate that over his first 18-20 starts, and be the prize of the summer rotation market.
Alcantara's return didn't go anywhere near that smoothly. His velocity was back, but he struggled to throw strikes or miss bats. He allowed over eight earned runs per nine innings in April and May. He showed flashes in June and July but remained up-and-down. Miami's deadline calculus became whether to sell low on their longtime ace -- a move that would've been more about cutting his $17MM salaries through 2026 than netting a huge prospect return. Given the organizational history, no one would've been surprised if they'd gone that route.
They instead decided to hold Alcantara and were only modest sellers overall. Miami dealt third catcher Nick Fortes to Tampa Bay and flipped platoon outfielder Jesús Sánchez to Houston for a three-player package. In addition to Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Kyle Stowers, Anthony Bender and Calvin Faucher all stayed.
Miami was willing to cover what remained of Alcantara's 2025 salary to take a couple more months to get him on track. That has paid off. The 30-year-old righty has looked more like his old self. He's showing better control than he did in April and May. The improved efficiency has allowed him to work deeper into games. His stuff has gotten sharper as the season has progressed. That'll all be very encouraging as the Marlins field new trade offers in the offseason.
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