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Astros Expected To Present Offer To Alex Bregman In Near Future

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Alex Bregman may have played his final game as an Astro on Wednesday. Detroit’s 5-2 win completed a sweep that ended Houston’s run of seven consecutive trips at least as far as the American League Championship Series. That’ll push the Astros into offseason mode, where the focus will be on their star third baseman.

Alden González of ESPN writes that the Astros are expected to present a formal contract proposal to Bregman in the near future. While Houston has yet to put an official offer on the table, general manager Dana Brown has said on a few occasions they’d discuss the contract once the season ended. Brown again expressed optimism about the situation. “When you get down to it, I think he wants to stay here. I think we want him to stay here,” the GM told González earlier this week. “And it’s just a matter of coming up with some type of an agreement.”

Coming to an agreement is naturally much easier said than done with a free agent of this caliber. Bregman is arguably the second-best position player who’ll hit the market. Unless the Scott Boras client takes a significant hometown discount, retaining him would probably require the biggest investment in franchise history. Houston’s organizational high was the five-year, $151MM extension for Jose Altuve signed in Spring Training 2018.

That $151MM sum is coincidentally an exact match for the extension which Matt Chapman signed with the Giants last month. (Chapman’s deal was over six years, so the average annual value was lower than that of the Altuve contract.) Bregman is a year younger than Chapman and a more consistent offensive player. Bregman will decline a qualifying offer if he gets to free agency. That’ll attach him to draft compensation. That wouldn’t have been the case for Chapman, who could not have received a QO from San Francisco. Still, the one-year gap in age and the safer offensive profile make it likely that Bregman’s earning power is above the Chapman price.

The career-long Astro hasn’t spoken much about his contract status. Bregman deferred offseason questions while the Astros were still alive, stating that he was focused on the team’s performance. He limited his comments mostly to generalities in the immediate aftermath of being eliminated. Asked whether he wanted to return to Houston, Bregman said he “(hopes) so but (will) let Scott and the team handle that” (X link via Matt Young of the Houston Chronicle). He subsequently took to Twitter to thank the city.

A few of Bregman’s teammates were effusive in their praise for the two-time All-Star. Altuve, himself a Boras Corporation client, was particularly strong about the Astros’ need to keep him. “In my mind there is not a chance this is his last game (as an Astro),” Altuve said (relayed on X by Chandler Rome of the Athletic). “He gave a lot to this organization so it’s time for us as an organization to pay him back and make him stay here.” Altuve added that he planned to say as much personally to owner Jim Crane.

Ultimately, whether the Astros re-sign Bregman depends on Crane’s willingness to make a huge free agent investment. The Astros were content to let George Springer and Carlos Correa walk in previous offseasons. They’re down to their final seasons of arbitration control over Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez, both of whom are trending to nine-figure deals. Tucker is on pace to exceed $200MM and could push into the $300MM range with a great walk year.

While Crane has generally been averse to long-term deals, he hasn’t been shy about investing in the team overall. Houston is finishing this year with an approximate $244MM player payroll, as calculated by RosterResource. They’re around $262MM in luxury tax obligations, putting them into the second tier of penalization.

RosterResource calculates their guaranteed commitments for next season around $133MM. Tucker and Valdez headline one of the priciest arbitration classes in the league. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Houston’s arbitration group to cost around $58MM. Trades or non-tenders of José Urquidy and Chas McCormick could knock a few million from the ledger, but the Astros will go into the offseason with roughly $185MM in internal commitments.

Beyond the uncertainty at third base, Houston will need to look at the rotation and at first base. The latter was a huge issue all season. Houston’s rotation settled in later in the year, but they’ll see Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi hit free agency. Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and hopeful injury returnees Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. make for a talented group. Injuries seriously tested the depth before they stabilized things with the Kikuchi pickup at the deadline, though, so Houston is likely to bring in some kind of starting pitching help.

The Astros don’t have an obvious in-house replacement at third base. Shay Whitcomb and Zach Dezenzo took a few at-bats this season, but they’re unproven at the MLB level. 2023 first-round pick Brice Matthews could be an answer down the line. He only has 12 games of Triple-A experience thus far. Assuming the Diamondbacks pick up their option on Eugenio Suárez, there aren’t any clear regulars available at the position in free agency aside from Bregman.

Justin Verlander Not On Astros’ Wild Card Roster

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The Astros announced their Wild Card Series roster this morning, and it does not include struggling veteran Justin Verlander. Houston is carrying a slate of 15 position players, including three catchers, and 11 pitchers for their date with the upstart Tigers.

Verlander, 41, missed a substantial portion of the season due to shoulder and neck injuries. Houston reinstated him from the injured list in late August after an absence of more than two months owing to said neck issues, and while he was solid in his return effort (two runs in five innings versus the Red Sox), his season quickly snowballed thereafter. The three-time Cy Young winner and future Hall of Famer was torched for a catastrophic 8.89 ERA over his final six starts, which included individual games that saw him yield four, five, six and eight runs. Manager Joe Espada tells the Astros beat that the conversation with Verlander was “very easy,” crediting him for being “a true pro” about the decision (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com).

One notable return to the lineup, however, is Yordan Alvarez. The Houston slugger has been out of action for more than a week due to a sprained knee, but he’s in the lineup hitting second and serving as Houston’s designated hitter. Espada tells the Astros beat that Alvarez is not 100% and isn’t likely to run at full speed or slide (X link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Still, Alvarez’s game-changing power and general excellence at the plate — he hit .308/.392/.567 with 35 homers in 147 games — are enough that the ’Stros will live with those shortcomings to get his bat into the order.

The Astros are sending Framber Valdez to the mound to start Game 1 opposite Tigers ace Tarik Skubal. They’ve yet to announce the second and third starters for the potential three-game set. Starters Yusei Kikuchi, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti are all on the playoff roster, as are relievers Bryan Abreu, Caleb Ferguson, Josh Hader, Bryan King, Hector Neris and Ryan Pressly.

On the position player side of things, the ’Stros are going with catchers Victor Caratini, Yainer Diaz and Cesar Salazar; infielders Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Zach Dezenzo, Mauricio Dubon, Grae Kessinger, Jeremy Pena and Jon Singleton; and outfielders Jason Heyward, Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Kyle Tucker. Alvarez, listed as an outfielder, seems quite likely to serve as the DH for this series at least, given the physical limitations outlined by Espada.

Astros Notes: Alvarez, McCormick

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Yordan Alvarez’s status is the biggest question mark facing the Astros as the postseason begins, but manager Joe Espada said Alvarez will take batting practice tomorrow.  “That’s a really good sign.  Just the fact that he’s able to hit and rotate and do stuff that a couple days ago I thought he wasn’t going to be able to do in a matter of days,” Espada told reporters, including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle.

Alvarez hasn’t played since suffering a knee sprain while sliding on September 22, and it seems possible that the Astros might not tip their hand about his availability until Tuesday morning, when they have to release their rosters for their AL Wild Card Series with the Tigers.  Waiting until the relative last minute makes it harder for the Tigers to prepare, and it also gives Alvarez and the Astros as much time as possible to evaluate the star slugger’s knee health.

Astros Select Ryan Gusto

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The Astros announced this morning that they’ve selected the contract of right-hander Ryan Gusto. Gusto will make his big league debut in today’s regular season finale, starting this afternoon’s game against the Guardians. To make room for Gusto on the 40-man and active rosters, outfielder Ben Gamel was transferred to the 60-day IL while right-hander Shawn Dubin was optioned to the minor leagues.

Gusto, 25, was Houston’s 11th-round pick in the 2019 draft. He’s enjoyed something of a breakout over the past two seasons, as he impressed in 61 1/3 innings of work at the Double-A level last year with a 2.93 ERA and a 24.9% strikeout rate in his first taste of action at the level. That earned him a promotion to the Triple-A level to start the 2024 season, and while he struggled badly in his first taste of Pacific Coast League action this year (8.03 ERA in his first two months) he’s turned things around a big way since then. In 108 innings of work since the start of June, Gusto has dominated opponents with a 2.08 ERA and 23.2% strikeout rate while walking just 6.4% of opponents.

Now, Gusto will get the opportunity to show off what he can do against big league hitters. With both Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi ticketed for free agency this winter, it’s easy to imagine Gusto working his way into consideration for the club’s rotation mix next year as one of the club’s few upper-level arms who have not yet been integrated into the big league rotation. The club figures to have Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and Spencer Arrighetti as rotation options headed into next year with plenty of other players due back from the IL sometime next season but Gusto could be an important depth piece for the club come Spring Training, particularly if the club doesn’t make additions to the rotation over the winter.

As for Gamel, the move to place the 32-year-old on the 60-day IL is largely procedural. The outfielder was already on the shelf due to a fractured fibula and considered likely to miss the entire postseason, though today’s roster move confirms that he won’t play again this year. Gamel hit a decent .247/.384/.333 with the Mets and Astros this year and figures to enter free agency this winter as an interesting bench option for clubs in need of outfield depth.

Astros Had Interest In Nick Pivetta At Trade Deadline

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The Astros had a “very high” amount of interest in Nick Pivetta prior to the trade deadline, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports.  No deal was worked out between Houston and Boston, naturally, as the Red Sox were still in contention and opted against moving Pivetta or any other impending free agents.  The Astros instead pivoted to landing Yusei Kikuchi from the Blue Jays in what was arguably the most impactful trade of deadline season, as Kikuchi’s dominance dominance since coming to Houston has been a key factor in the Astros’ run to the AL West crown.

Pivetta made his final start of the 2024 campaign yesterday, and the right-hander finishes his eighth MLB season with a 4.14 ERA over 145 2/3 innings, as well as very strong strikeout (28.9%) and walk (6.1) rates.  Pivetta’s success was limited by a propensity for allowing hard contact and a lot of home runs, but all in all, he has made a solid case for himself as he enters free agency in advance of his age-32 season.  On paper, the Astros’ mix of younger arms and veteran starters returning from injury should help the team make up for the possible departures of Kikuchi and Justin Verlander in free agency, yet the “you can never have enough pitching” cliche is a persuasive counter-argument.  Bolstering the group with a mid-tier option like Pivetta could be an attractive option to the Astros this winter.

Marwin González Retires

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Former big league player Marwin González announced he is retiring, through a press release from the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball, the club he’s played with for the past two years. Yahoo Japan had reported on his retirement plans prior to the official announcement.

“After two amazing years in Japan, it’s time for me to say goodbye,” González says in his statement. “I’m incredibly grateful to my teammates, coaches, and fans for welcoming me with open arms. Despite the language barrier, we formed a bond with ease, making every moment on the field special. Playing here has been a life-changing experience, especially getting to share it with my family. Japan will always hold a special place in our hearts. I’m filled with gratitude for the opportunity, the memories, and the friendships made along the way. Thank you for welcoming me into your world and for the endless support. You have all my respect. Arigatou gozaimasu.”

Marwin Gonzalez | Erik Williams-USA TODAY SportsGonzález, now 35, got his professional start when the Cubs signed him as an international amateur out of Venezuela and he made his minor league debut in 2006. In the 2011 Rule 5 draft, the Astros had the first pick since they were rebuilding at that time and lost 106 games that year. They used that first pick to take Rhiner Cruz from the Mets but also apparently had their eye on González. With the 23rd pick of the draft, the Red Sox took González and promptly flipped him to the Astros for Marco Duarte.

The second of those pickups ended up being far more impactful for the franchise, as Cruz tossed just 76 1/3 innings for the Astros, posting a 5.31 earned run average over the 2012 and 2013 campaigns before going into journeyman mode for the rest of his career.

González would eventually become a solid multi-positional piece for the Astros, though not right away. In 441 plate appearances over 2012 and 2013, he hit just .227/.266/.323. That production translated to a 59 wRC+, indicating he was 41% below league average. The Astros didn’t seem to mind much as they were still quite bad at that time, losing 107 and 111 games in those two seasons respectively. González was at least able to provide them defensively versatility, spending time at second base, third base and shortstop.

He was able to break out in 2014, hitting .277/.327/.400 for a wRC+ of 110. He also added first base and outfield to his defensive repertoire that year. He would continue to produce in roughly similar fashion in following seasons as the Astros emerged from their rebuild and became the perennial powerhouse that they still are today.

From 2014 to 2018, González got into 643 games for the Astros and stepped to the plate 2,265 times. He slashed .271/.328/.438 in that time for a 111 wRC+ while bouncing all around the diamond, playing everywhere except the battery.

He also got into 30 postseason games in that time, including 18 as part of the 2017 club’s World Series run, though that title is now mired in controversy with the revelation of Houston’s cheating scandal. Data from the scandal points to González as one of the biggest users of the trashcan-banging scheme. His 144 wRC+ and 4.4 wins above replacement from FanGraphs that year are both easily the bests of his career, as he otherwise never topped 111 wRC+ or 1.8 fWAR. Though he later apologized for the team’s actions, the first position player on the club to do so.

He reached free agency after 2018 and signed a two-year, $21MM deal with the Twins going into 2019. His bat dipped a bit in his first year in Minnesota, at least relative to the league. His .264/.322/.414 batting line was fairly similar to his previous five years, but 2019 was the “juiced ball” season with huge offensive numbers around the league, so González’s production led to a 94 wRC+. It fell more significantly in the shortened 2020 campaign, with González slashing .211/.286/.320.

Going into 2021, the Red Sox gave him a $3MM deal, hoping that his most recent performance was just a small sample blip in the odd circumstances of the pandemic. Unfortunately, that bet didn’t pan out, as González hit .202/.281/.285 before being released in August. He then returned to the Astros but hit just .176/.222/.441 in 14 games for them down the stretch. He signed a minor league deal with the Yankees going into 2022 and got into 86 games for that club, but hit .185/.255/.321 in those.

After three consecutive rough seasons in the majors, he headed overseas. He signed with the Buffaloes going into 2023 on a deal that paid him $1.5MM. He hit .217/.266/.385 in 84 games for that club last year. He returned for 2024 but dealt with injuries and only got into 23 games, per Yakyu Cosmopolitan on X.

González will primarily be remembered for that strong run with the Astros, which will provide fond memories to some fans while others will dismiss his accomplishments due to his involvement in the electronic sign-stealing scheme.

Regardless of how one feels about that, the record books have him with 3,882 plate appearances in 1,139 major league games. He collected 888 hits, including 183 doubles and 107 home runs. He scored 420 runs and drove in 415. He slashed .252/.310/.399 for a wRC+ of 94. FanGraphs considered him to have been worth 10.9 wins above replacement while Baseball Reference credits him with 14.3 WAR. B-Ref lists his major league earnings at just over $37MM, with González likely getting that up to around $40MM with the money he made in Japan. MLBTR salutes him on his unique career and wishes him the best in whatever comes next.

Astros Notes: Bregman, Alvarez, McCormick

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Last week, Astros GM Dana Brown revealed that he hopes to talk about a new contract with third baseman Alex Bregman prior to the franchise third baseman hitting the open market this November. At the time of that interview, Brown indicated that he and Bregman’s agent, Scott Boras, had briefly talked regarding Bregman’s future and agreed to wait to begin any sort of contract discussions until “things are over.” Now, Bregman himself has chimed in and expressed a similar desire to put his impending free agency out of mind until the 2024 season has wrapped up.

“I haven’t really thought about it too much, honestly,” Bregman told reporters yesterday when asked about the possibility of leaving Houston, as relayed by Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. “Just focused on trying to win a game and get this division clinched… Just been really focused on winning.”

Waiting until the end of the postseason (or for the Astros to be eliminated) before engaging in talks regarding Bregman’s future in Houston comes as something of a surprise, particularly given Brown’s long-standing commitment to talking with the third baseman and his representation before he hits free agency. With that being said, it’s not necessarily a shock from the player’s perspective that he would prefer to focus on the upcoming playoff run before turning to contract negotiations.

Generally, it’s extremely rare for players to re-up with their current club this close to free agency, particularly when it comes to stars of Bregman’s caliber. It does happen on occasion, though, as it did when the Mets retained closer Edwin Diaz on a record-breaking contract just days before free agency opened during the 2022-23 offseason. That Bregman is represented by the Boras Corporation, which has generally advised its clients to establish their values on the open market, could be another potential roadblock to a deal coming together before he hits free agency. Of course, it must be noted that Boras clients do sign extensions with their clubs on occasion; Bregman himself did so earlier in his career, and fellow third baseman Matt Chapman inked a long-term extension with the Giants earlier this month despite a return to free agency being just two months away at that point.

While Bregman’s uncertain future looms over the club in the longer term, a much more immediate concern is the status of star slugger Yordan Alvarez with the playoffs just around the corner. Alvarez exited the club’s game on Sunday due to a right knee sprain, but seemed somewhat optimistic after speaking to reporters about the issue yesterday (X video link courtesy of KHOU11’s Luis Ortiz). Alvarez said that while he’s had an easier time walking in the days since his exit, he still has to wait for the inflammation in his knee to go down before he can return to playing. That will leave him out of action for the club’s final series of the season against Guardians, as manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Kawahara) earlier today.

It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros would have Alvarez take the remainder of the regular season off, given his importance to the club’s hopes of making noise in the postseason. After all, Houston clinched their fourth consecutive AL West title last night with a win over the Mariners, and it is no longer possible for them to catch either the Guardians or the eventual AL East champion in order to earn a bye through the upcoming Wild Card Series. That makes the final few games of the regular season largely meaningless for the club, offering them little incentive to rush Alvarez back and potentially worsen his injury woes.

It’s unclear at this point whether or not Alvarez will be ready to return to action in time for the Wild Card series, but even if he doesn’t it’s possible he’ll be available in later postseason rounds should the Astros continue to advance. His regular season comes to a close with a career-high 147 games under his belt and a typically excellent slash line of .308/.392/.567 with a wRC+ of 167 and 35 homers in 635 trips to the plate.

It’s a similar story for outfielder Chas McCormick, who has been on the injured list due to a fractured right hand for just over two weeks now. As relayed by Kawahara, Espada told reporters that McCormick is “moving in the right direction” and “looking pretty good” despite the fact that he won’t be joining the club for its final regular season games in Cleveland. The 29-year-old has resumed baseball activities, including reps in the batting cage and drills in the outfield, and could still be an option for the Astros in next week’s Wild Card Series. McCormick had a disappointing regular season where he hit just .211/.271/.306 (66 wRC+), but he was putting together something of a hot streak in the days prior to his injury as he went 10 for his last 24 with a double, a homer, and a walk in his final eight games of the regular season.

Astros Notes: Alvarez, Gamel

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Yordan Alvarez left today’s 9-8 Astros loss to the Angels due to a right knee contusion, and manager Joe Espada said after the game (to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome and other reporters) that the slugger is “pretty sore” and will undergo testing.  While sliding into second base during a third-inning double, Alvarez banged his knee on the ground and had to be replaced by pinch-runner Mauricio Dubon.

Knee problems have bothered Alvarez for much of his career, and he had arthroscopic surgeries on both of his knees back in 2020.  The Astros have primarily used Alvarez as a DH in a nod to these knee issues, and while there isn’t yet any indication that today’s injury is anything more than a bruise, it certainly isn’t a good sign to see one of Houston’s top hitters suddenly facing a health concern just a week away from the playoffs.  Alvarez is enjoying another tremendous season, with a 35 homers and a .305/.309/.564 slash line in a career-high 636 plate appearances entering today’s action.

  • Ben Gamel was placed on the 10-day injured list earlier this week due to a fractured fibula, and in his weekly appearance on the Astros’ pregame radio show, GM Dana Brown confirmed that Gamel will “most likely” not be available for the postseason.  Between Gamel’s injury, Chas McCormick’s fractured hand, and the new uncertainty about Alvarez’s status, Houston’s outfield is suddenly facing depth issues as the playoffs approach.

Astros Place Tayler Scott On 15-Day Injured List

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The Astros announced that right-hander Tayler Scott has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a thoracic spine strain.  The placement is retroactive to September 18.  Seth Martinez was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.

Signed to a minor league contract last winter, Scott has been an underrated gem of an acquisition for Houston’s front office.  The righty has a 2.23 ERA and 25.2% strikeout rate over 68 2/3 innings, as well as an elite 3.5% barrel rate.  While he has had a lot of problems avoiding the free pass (12.4% walk rate), Scott has unexpectedly emerged to make the third-most appearances of any Astros pitcher this season.

These numbers were even better before Scott ran into difficulties over his last five outings, with a 6.35 ERA amassed in those 5 2/3 innings of work.  It seems quite possible that his injury contributed to this recent downturn in form, and the spinal strain has now ended his regular season.  More will be known about Scott’s status later today when manager Joe Espada meets with the media, but it certainly seems possible that Scott’s readiness for the Astros’ postseason rosters could be in jeopardy.

His first career playoff appearance would be the icing on the cake for the 32-year-old Scott, who has now established himself in his fourth Major League season.  Scott had only a 9.00 ERA in 46 career MLB innings prior to this year, all amassed with six different teams during the 2019, 2022, and 2023 seasons.  (Scott pitched for the Hiroshima Carp of Nippon Professional Baseball in 2020-21).  Despite his age, Scott doesn’t have enough MLB service time to qualify for salary arbitration until the 2025-26 offseason, and the Astros control his rights through the 2028 campaign.

Verlander Discusses Struggles, Early Return From IL

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Verlander described the process of trying to get fully right in the aftermath of this injury as the most difficult of his career, “because sometimes it’s just one thing that makes it click.”  With just one regular-season start left before the playoffs, Verlander acknowledged that he might not be part of the Astros’ postseason rotation.  While “it’s not my decision” to make, Verlander noted that “I was away for two months and all these guys were pitching fantastic.  Seen a bunch of guys really come into their own.”

  • The Angels activated Kevin Pillar from the 10-day injured list yesterday, and optioned infielder Charles Leblanc to Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Pillar had been out of action since September 6 due to a left thumb sprain, and will now return for what will probably be the final games of his 12-year Major League career.  Pillar marked his activation with his eighth homer of the season in Friday’s 9-7 loss to the Astros, and the veteran is hitting .242/.300/.402 over 291 combined PA with the White Sox and Angels.
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