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Poll: American League Playoff Outlook

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We’re now a little over a quarter of the way through the 2025 regular season. With Memorial Day fast approaching, it’s hard for struggling teams to continue arguing that it’s still early. That isn’t to say playoff positions are set in stone, of course; on this day last year, the Mariners and Twins were firmly in playoff position while the eventual AL West champion Astros were in fourth place in the division and seven games under .500.

If the season ended today, the Tigers, Yankees, Mariners, Guardians, Royals, and Twins would be your playoff teams in the American League this year. With four-and-a-half months left in the baseball calendar, which team currently outside of that group has the best chance of breaking their way into the mix?

Here’s a look at a few of the options, listed in order of record entering play today:

Houston Astros (22-20)

Houston’s first season in a post-Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman world has been an uneven one. Jose Altuve does not look like the difference-maker he once was in his age-35 season. He’s hitting .256/.302/.369 (90 wRC+) and has effectively played at replacement level. His batted-ball profile suggests he may even be a bit fortunate to have the modest rate stats he currently possesses. Yordan Alvarez is injured, Yainer Diaz is well-below average at the plate, and neither Christian Walker nor Cam Smith is producing the way Houston hoped.

On the positive side, Isaac Paredes (141 wRC+) and Jeremy Pena (139 wRC+) have both been excellent at the plate. Hunter Brown is looking like an early Cy Young candidate, and the late-inning duo of Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu is one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball. If Alvarez can get healthy and the team can find some outfield help this summer, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Houston make its tenth consecutive postseason.

Texas Rangers (23-21)

Entering the season, the Rangers looked like they had an excellent offense that would be held down by questions about the pitching staff. The reality they’ve faced this year is the opposite: Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Jake Burger, and Joc Pederson have all been somewhere between disappointing and terrible. Corey Seager has been injured, and Evan Carter started the year in the minors. Josh Jung, Josh Smith, and Wyatt Langford have been the only standout performers in the lineup so far this year.

That’s been offset by phenomenal performances in the rotation despite injuries to Jon Gray, Cody Bradford, and Kumar Rocker. Jacob deGrom is back and striking out a third of batters like it’s 2019, but he’s arguably the #3 starter in a rotation where Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle have sub-2.00 ERAs. Even emergency addition Patrick Corbin is turning back the clock with a 3.35 ERA across seven starts. If the Rangers’ vaunted offense can wake up a bit, it’s easy to imagine the 2023 World Series champs making a run.

The Athletics (22-21)

John Fisher’s aggressive offseason after abandoning Oakland for West Sacramento is paying off in the standings, though it’s mostly been due to young players breaking out. Jacob Wilson is looking like a unicorn in the mold of Luis Arraez. Tyler Soderstrom has emerged as a breakout slugger. Shea Langeliers is in the midst of a career year at the dish.

The pitching is cause for concern, but Gunnar Hoglund has looked good in his first taste of big league action, while both Luis Severino and Mason Miller have peripherals that suggest their results should improve with time. Three of last year’s most productive players — Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday, and Brent Rooker — have taken steps backward, however. That will limit the club’s potential if they can’t get back on track.

Toronto Blue Jays (22-22)

With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. now in the fold for life, now all the Blue Jays have to do is win with him. The returns on that front are mixed. Veterans like George Springer, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt are doing their best to make everyone forget about their age, but the performances of longer-term pieces like Anthony Santander, Bowden Francis and Jose Berrios are deeply concerning. Jeff Hoffman has been among baseball’s best closers so far and Bo Bichette is an above-average hitter again, but Alejandro Kirk has been pedestrian at the plate and Guerrero’s 131 wRC+, while terrific relative to the rest of the league, represents a major step back from last year’s 165. A healthy and effective return from future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer would go a long way to stabilizing the rotation, but players like Santander and Berrios will need to get going if playoff baseball is to return to Canada this year.

Boston Red Sox (22-23)

After pushing in by adding Garrett Crochet and Bregman this winter, the Red Sox entered the year looking like one of the AL’s best teams. While they haven’t exactly been bad, the season certainly hasn’t worked out that way so far. Crochet and Bregman are both as-advertised or better, and Wilyer Abreu is looking like a bona fide lefty slugger to pair with Rafael Devers.

Kristian Campbell has begun to cool off after a torrid start, however, and the rotation injuries have begun to pile up. It’s anyone’s guess who will be playing first base on any given day. Triston Casas is out for the year. Romy Gonzalez is on the injured list. Devers doesn’t sound keen on another position change. Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer are knocking on the door in the minors, and perhaps their eventual debuts will be the spark this team needs to get back into the playoff mix.

The Rest Of The Field

The five teams mentioned above are all within two games of a Wild Card spot, but the rest of the AL can’t be counted out. The Rays will benefit from the eventual returns of players like Ha-Seong Kim and Shane McClanahan, but they need more offense from key pieces like Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, and Junior Caminero. The Orioles should have the lineup to compete, but they have some key bats struggling and will need to figure out their disastrous pitching staff to get back into the race. The Angels have faded after a hot start, but players like Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward should start hitting eventually. The White Sox still have an abysmal offense, but the rotation has been surprisingly solid with Rule 5 pick Shane Smith in particular looking like a steal.

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Which of the teams outside of the AL playoff picture entering play today do MLBTR readers think stands the best chance of making it into the postseason? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Current Non-Playoff Team Is Most Likely To Make The Postseason In 2025?
Boston Red Sox 26.54% (1,248 votes)
Texas Rangers 20.14% (947 votes)
Houston Astros 19.60% (922 votes)
Athletics 8.65% (407 votes)
Toronto Blue Jays 7.95% (374 votes)
The current six teams in playoff position will hold on and reach the postseason. 7.14% (336 votes)
Baltimore Orioles 4.42% (208 votes)
Tampa Bay Rays 2.34% (110 votes)
Chicago White Sox 1.81% (85 votes)
Los Angeles Angels 1.40% (66 votes)
Total Votes: 4,703

Tony Kemp Announces Retirement

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Veteran infielder/outfielder Tony Kemp has announced his retirement via social media (X link, Instagram link).

“After 12 years of professional baseball and nine seasons in the big leagues, I’ve decided to hang up the spikes,” Kemp wrote. In a lengthy farewell, he went on to thank his parents, his wife, his brother, Vanderbilt coach Tim Corbin, all of the organizations for which he suited up in the majors (Astros, Cubs, A’s, Orioles) and all of the training staffs who incredibly helped him avoid spending even one day of his career on the injured list. The 5’6″ Kemp also offered a heartfelt message for “undersized” ballplayers everywhere:

“To the undersized ballplayer: I see you, I hear you, and I understand you. With all of the metrics and data in the game of baseball today, there is still one measurement they can’t compute: your heart. Continue to play the game the right way and respect it. The game will reward you, I promise. Leave no doubt and give everything you have like someone is watching you play baseball for the first time. I’m rooting for you all.”

Kemp, 33, was the Astros’ fifth-round pick out of Vanderbilt back in 2013. He was in the big leagues three years later, appearing in 59 games and hitting .217/.296/.325 in a small sample of 136 plate appearances. Kemp received a fleeting cup of coffee with the 2017 Astros (39 plate appearances) but landed his first real look in the majors in 2018. He totaled 97 games and 295 plate appearances for Houston that year and delivered a nice .263/.351/.392 batting line (110 wRC+) with a strong 10.8% walk rate against a tiny 14.9% strikeout rate.

The following season, Kemp turned in a decent performance through 66 games with Houston before being flipped to the Cubs in a deadline deal that brought catcher Martin Maldonado to the Astros. He struggled in a short 44-game tenure with the Cubs, who traded him to the A’s in an offseason deal netting them first baseman Alfonso Rivas III.

It proved to be a terrific move by the Athletics. Kemp delivered the best work of his career in green and gold, spending four seasons with the A’s and playing quite well for the first three. From 2020-22, he posted a .252/.341/.361 slash (105 wRC+) with savvy baserunning and quality defense at both second base and in left field. Kemp never hit for much power, but during that three-year peak with the A’s he drew walks at a 10.5% clip and flashed continually plus bat-to-ball skills, fanning in only 12.5% of his plate appearances.

The 2023 season was a tough one, as Kemp hit just .209/.303/.304 in 417 turns at the plate. Oakland cut him loose that offseason. Kemp went on to sign minor league deals with the Reds, Orioles and Twins. He briefly appeared in the majors with Baltimore last season, getting into five games but going hitless in 10 plate appearances.

Kemp spent a dozen years in pro ball, saw MLB time in nine seasons with four teams, and will retire with a .237/.324/.351 batting line in 739 MLB games and 2247 plate appearances. He picked up more than six years of big league service and, per Baseball-Reference, secured more than $8.5MM in career earnings (in addition to his $250K signing bonus out of the draft). Kemp was a popular teammate and a fan favorite based on his self-described “grinder mentality” on the diamond. Congrats to Tony on a successful career, and best wishes in whatever steps lie ahead.

Astros Designate Tayler Scott For Assignment

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The Astros have designated right-hander Tayler Scott for assignment, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. That’s the corresponding move for lefty Colton Gordon, whose promotion was reported earlier this week. Gordon was already on the 40-man, so this drops the club’s count to 39.

Scott, 33 next month, seemed to have a bit of a breakout with the Astros in 2024. After years of bouncing around to various major league clubs, minor league clubs, indy ball teams and a stint in Japan, he signed a minor league pact with Houston in December of 2023.

He made the Opening Day roster last year and went on to log 68 2/3 innings on the season, allowing just 2.23 earned runs per nine. His 12.4% walk rate was certainly on the high side but his 42.4% ground ball rate was around league average, while his 25.2% strikeout rate was a few ticks above par. He likely got a bit of help from his .230 batting average on balls in play and 84.9% strand rate, but even ERA estimators like his 4.13 FIP and 4.04 SIERA suggested he could be a useful bullpen arm even with a bit less luck.

Unfortunately, almost everything has gone in the wrong direction this year. Through 16 2/3 innings, he has a 5.40 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, 15.4% walk rate and 43.5% ground ball rate. That has clearly worn out Houston’s patience. Scott is out of options, so they had little choice but to bump him off the 40-man entirely.

Scott will now be in DFA limbo for a maximum of one week. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so the Astros could take five days to explore trade possibilities. Perhaps some club in need of bullpen help could be interested, if they feel there’s a way for Scott to get back to last year’s results.

Photo courtesy of Thomas Shea,Imagn Images

Astros To Promote Colton Gordon

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The Astros will recall left-hander Colton Gordon from Triple-A Sugar Land to start tomorrow’s game, reports Chron.com’s Leah Vann. Gordon, who’ll be making his MLB debut, will step into the rotation spot of the injured Hayden Wesneski. He’s already on the 40-man roster, so Houston will only need to make a corresponding 26-man roster move to bring him to the majors.

Gordon, 26, has gotten out to a terrific start in 2025. He’s taken the mound eight times and logged 42 1/3 innings of 2.55 ERA ball, fanning 25.3% of his opponents against a 4.7% walk rate. Both those marks are better than average — considerably so, in the case of that walk rate — as is his 43.5% ground-ball rate.

The Astros’ 2021 eighth-rounder out of the University of Central Florida, Gordon entered the 2025 season ranked 20th among Astros prospects at Baseball America and 14th at MLB.com. He doesn’t throw hard, sitting just 91.1 mph on his four-seamer, but the 6’4″ southpaw benefits from above-average command and a deep, six-pitch arsenal that helps keep hitters off balance. In addition to that four-seamer, Gordon also throws a sinker, slider, changeup, curveball and cutter.

With Wesneski (elbow inflammation) joining Spencer Arrighetti (broken thumb), J.P. France (2024 shoulder surgery), Cristian Javier (2024 Tommy John surgery) and Luis Garcia (2023 Tommy John surgery, and multiple setbacks) on the injured list, Houston’s pitching depth is being put to the test. Gordon and righties AJ Blubaugh and Miguel Ullola are the top internal options in Triple-A, while righties Ryan Gusto and Shawn Dubin are both on the big league roster and capable of starting. Dubin, however, just made his season debut after a lengthy IL stint due to shoulder inflammation and is not stretched out. He’s pitched only in one-inning stints so far and appears set for a second straight year working primarily out of the bullpen, so perhaps his days as a rotation option are behind him.

The ’Stros boast a formidable one-two rotation punch in Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez, but the rest of the group is on shakier standing. Lance McCullers Jr. just returned from an injury absence of more than two years, so it’s tough to know what to expect from him. Ronel Blanco was a godsend for the 2024 Astros but never seemed likely to replicate last year’s 2.80 ERA, which was propped up by a tiny .220 average on balls in play and bloated 83.6% strand rate. He’s worked to a 4.04 ERA in 2025, which is more in line with last year’s 4.17 SIERA and 4.15 FIP. To Blanco’s credit, he turned in one of the best starts by any pitcher in MLB this season last time out, blanking the Reds over eight innings of two-hit ball with 11 strikeouts, but he entered that start with a 4.98 ERA, a 21.9% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate.

Given the injuries up and down the staff, Gordon ought to get several chances to prove himself in 2025. He was only selected to the 40-man roster this past November, so he’s in the first of three minor league option years. He can be controlled through at least the 2031 season.

Jose Altuve Exits Due To Hamstring Tightness

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May 11: Altuve is not in the Astros’ lineup today, but manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic) this morning that the veteran came in today feeling better and that he could be back in the lineup in a day or two.

May 10: Astros veteran Jose Altuve began today’s game against the Reds at second base, but was pinch hit for by Brendan Rodgers in the third inning. Houston later announced that he had departed the game with what they termed “tightness” in his right hamstring.

Further information about Altuve’s status will likely be available after the game, including whether the issue is severe enough that the 35-year-old will require a trip to the injured list. Altuve has gone on the shelf due to hamstring problems twice in his career, once in 2019 and once in 2022, though both of those instances were due to strains of his left hamstring. That he doesn’t have a substantial history of hamstring issues on his right side provides some reason for optimism, but it should still be expected that the Astros will at least send Altuve for an MRI to determine the severity of the issue. Even mild hamstring strains can take a few weeks to recover, so it would hardly be a surprise if the club ended up deciding to place Altuve on the 10-day injured list.

Sensible as that decision may be, it would be difficult for the Astros to replace Altuve. The nine-time All-Star hasn’t looked like himself at the plate this year, hitting just .259/.304/.374 with a below average 93 wRC+ and what would be the highest strikeout rate of his career in a 162-game season, but Houston’s depth from which to replace Altuve is the lineup is minimal at best. Rodgers and Mauricio Dubon would surely be the club’s choices to handle duties at the keystone, but both have hit even less than Altuve to this point in the calendar. Second base is no longer Altuve’s primary position, however, after he moved to left field during Spring Training.

With Yordan Alvarez already on the injured list at present, the club’s outfield and DH mix would be paper thin if Altuve were to be removed from the mix. Jake Meyers is playing every day in center field, but the outfield corners would be patrolled by some combination of Cam Smith (95 wRC+), Chas McCormick (90 wRC+), and Zach Dezenzo. Dezenzo has mostly looked good (117 wRC+) in 20 games with the Astros this year, though his 29.5% strikeout rate is high enough to raise alarm bells. Perhaps Yainer Diaz can help fill in at DH until Alvarez returns from the shelf with Victor Caratini joining the lineup behind the plate, but that does little to solve the lackluster production from the outfield corners.

Even with Altuve in the mix, the Astros’ production in left field this year is the third weakest in all of baseball. Removing Altuve from the mix would only serve to weaken that production, and the only other outfielder on the 40-man roster is Kenedy Corona, who sports a lackluster 67 wRC+ at the Triple-A level this year. Barring an external addition or the surprise promotion of a prospect like Jacob Melton, an injury for Altuve would likely mean even rougher production in the outfield for an Astros club that has already fallen to third place in the AL West with a pedestrian 19-18 record.

AL West Notes: Trout, Wesneski, Kirby, Gilbert

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When Angels superstar Mike Trout first went on the injured list just over a week ago due to a bone bruise in his left knee, Trout expressed optimism that he would be able to return after a minimum stay. He’s eligible to be activated on Sunday, but that ultimately will not come to pass. Trout told reporters (including Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com) that while he’s resumed swinging a bat with no issues, he has yet to begin running.

The good news is, that could change fairly soon. Trout indicated that he’ll be traveling with the Angels to San Diego for their upcoming series against the Padres this week, and there’s “a good chance” that he’ll start running on that road trip. Trout added that the pain he was feeling in his knee that led to the IL stint has now dissipated, and the veteran is encouraged enough by the progress that a return in the somewhat near future seems to be on the table, though an exact timeline won’t be able to be established until Trout resumes running.

Obviously, the face of the Angels franchise returning to the field will be a key factor in whatever hopes the club may have of clawing its way back into the AL playoff picture. A strong start to the 2025 campaign for the Halos has largely been snuffed out at this point, as they own a lackluster 15-22 record and are currently sitting in fifth place in the AL West. Even side from the odds of playoff baseball in Anaheim, however, Trout’s return to action would be reason for celebration for fans all around the game. A slam-dunk Hall of Famer who was on track to become one of the greatest players in history just a few years ago, Trout has appeared in just 295 games since the start of the 2021 season and will be looking to have his first mostly-healthy campaign since 2022 once he returns from the injured list.

More from around the AL West…

  • Astros right-hander Hayden Wesneski went on the injured list yesterday due to discomfort in his right elbow. It’s an ominous diagnosis that resulted in the righty being sent for imaging, but manager Joe Espada told reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) this afternoon that while Wesneski’s MRI showed inflammation in his elbow, the club felt that they “couldn’t get a good read of what’s going on.” Espada added that the club’s plan is now to give Wesneski a few more days of rest in hopes that the inflammation will calm down before trying to reassess the situation and decide on next steps. It’s an update that offers little clarity on Wesneski’s path forward, much less a timetable for his return. The right-hander pitched to middling results in six starts for Houston this year after being acquired from the Cubs as part of the Kyle Tucker trade, with a 4.50 ERA in 32 innings of work.
  • The Mariners are without co-aces George Kirby and Logan Gilbert at the moment. Kirby has yet to pitch this year after beginning the season on the shelf due to shoulder inflammation, while tightness in Gilbert’s forearm shut him down near the end of last month. Seattle GM Justin Hollander told reporters (including Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) yesterday that Kirby would make one more rehab start after today’s outing with Triple-A Tacoma. That would put him in line to be activated at some point during the club’s upcoming road trip, perhaps either against the White Sox or the Astros. Gilbert, meanwhile, is further from a return given that he’s still just playing catch. Hollander did suggest, however, that the righty could resume throwing off the mound in the coming days. Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans are filling in for Kirby and Gilbert in the club’s rotation in the meantime.

Astros Place Hayden Wesneski On Injured List Due To Elbow Discomfort

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The Astros announced Friday that right-hander Hayden Wesneski is being placed on the 15-day injured list due to discomfort in his right elbow. Right-hander Logan VanWey will be recalled from Triple-A Sugar Land to take Wesneski’s spot on the roster. An exact diagnosis or expected timetable for Wesneski’s return has not been provided. His IL placement is retroactive to May 7.

It’s ominous any time a pitcher hits the injured list due to a nebulous designation such as “elbow discomfort.” Teams will typically provide further details — specific symptoms, diagnoses, timetables, etc. — not long after making announcements such as this one. The Astros are notoriously tight-lipped with any and all medical updates, however, so time will tell when they opt to divulge more information.

Regardless, the loss of Wesneski stings. One of three players acquired from the Cubs in exchange for Kyle Tucker, he opened the season in Houston’s rotation and has played a key role. His most recent start (four runs in four innings) bumped his ERA up to 4.50, but Wesneski had been sitting at a solid 3.86 mark prior. His most recent appearance was the first time in 2025 that he worked fewer than five innings and the first time he yielded more than three runs in a start.

Houston only just welcomed Lance McCullers Jr. back from an injury absence of more than two years. He joined Wesneski, Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Ronel Blanco in manager Joe Espada’s rotation, bumping rookie Ryan Gusto a long relief role. With Wesneski down for at least two weeks, it seems likely that Gusto will step back into the starting five, although Houston has righty AJ Blubaugh and lefty Colton Gordon both on the 40-man roster down in Triple-A.

Whoever steps into the rotation vacancy could be looking at an abbreviated stint on the starting staff. Certainly, the ’Stros will hope for a swift return for Wesneski. But even if he requires an absence of some note, other reinforcements could be on the way. Right-hander Spencer Arrighetti has been out since April 7 with a fractured thumb, but the Astros’ original hope was that he’d be able to return in about six weeks. That timetable might be hard to meet if he’s yet to resume throwing, but there’s yet to be any indication that he’s facing a substantially longer absence than originally hoped. Prospect Miguel Ullola has been dominant in his two most recent Triple-A appearances, tossing 10 scoreless innings and allowing only two hits and three walks while punching out 15. Looking further down the road, the club hopes to have righty Cristian Javier back later in the summer after he underwent Tommy John surgery last June.

Generally speaking, the Astros are reasonably well equipped to handle one loss of note in the rotation. A second injury, particularly one to Brown or Valdez, would prove a far greater test to the organization’s depth.

The Astros’ Second Ace

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The last time that Hunter Brown was tagged on MLBTR's pages was almost one year ago. Brown had just thrown a five-inning relief appearance after Cristian Javier failed to advance past the second inning. Houston had been running a six-man rotation and was potentially considering dropping Brown to the bullpen or to Triple-A, as he'd allowed 26 runs over 23 innings through the end of April.

A lot can change in a year.

Brown struck out seven while allowing just one run in that May 11 relief outing. His return to the rotation six days later didn't go well, as he gave up four runs in five innings against Milwaukee. After that, Brown reeled off eight consecutive quality starts. He allowed more than three runs in just three of his final 22 appearances. He'd made it through six innings in just one of his first eight starts. He failed to complete six innings only three times from the middle of May onwards.

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Astros Place Yordan Alvarez On Injured List

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The Astros have placed outfielder/designated hitter Yordan Alvarez on the 10-day injured list with right hand inflammation, retroactive to May 3. Catcher César Salazar has been recalled to take his spot on the active roster. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com was among those to relay the news.

The hand issue doesn’t come out of nowhere, as Alvarez missed the club’s last two games due to that inflammation. It’s unclear how much time the Astros expect him to miss but he wasn’t immediately placed on the IL, so perhaps they just want to give him a bit of a rest. By backdating the transaction, he can be back in just over a week.

Hand inflammation has been an issue for him in the past. He dealt with soreness in both hands in 2022 and he did once go on the IL that year, though it was around the All-Star break, so he only missed a few games. Hand soreness also hampered him a bit in Spring Training 2023.

He still put up massive numbers in those seasons but 2025 has been a struggle. It’s unclear if he’s been battling the hand problems all year but he has a .210/.306/.340 line and 79 wRC+ through 121 plate appearances. That’s partly due to a .222 batting average on balls in play but his hard hit rate and barrel rate are also down compared to previous seasons. He carried a .298/.390/.583 career batting line and 166 wRC+ into the season, so this year’s production has been a massive drop-off.

The Astros will surely be hoping to get him back to that previous kind of offense after this IL stint. The one silver lining of not having Alvarez around is that it opens the designated hitter spot for other uses. The recall of Salazar gives the club three catchers and perhaps suggests that they will use the DH spot to get their backstops more plate appearances.

Victor Caratini has been drawing walks at a 12% clip this year, leading to a .233/.340/.372 line and 112 wRC+. Yainer Diaz doesn’t have a good line for the entire year, hitting .221/.250/.365 thus far for a 73 wRC+, but that’s mostly due to a horrendous start. He had a dismal .061/.139/.061 line through April 8th but has hit .296/.306/.507 for a 130 wRC+ since then.

Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images

Astros To Activate Lance McCullers Jr. This Weekend

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The Astros are planning to reinstate right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. from the injured list this weekend, the team announced to reporters Wednesday (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). He’ll take the ball Sunday to start against the White Sox.

Sunday will mark McCullers’ first appearance on a major league mound since the 2022 postseason. Even in 2022, McCullers was limited to 47 2/3 regular-season innings because of a forearm injury. He made his 2022 debut in August, pitched down the stretch and added another 15 postseason innings. His forearm again flared up in spring training 2023, and McCullers eventually underwent surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right arm and to remove bone spurs from his elbow.

That procedure ended McCullers’ 2023 season before it began, but the general expectation was that he’d return at some point in 2024. That never came to pass. McCullers worked through a throwing program last summer but never made it to the mound for a rehab start. The Astros revealed in August that McCullers was being shut back down due to persisting pain in his surgically repaired right arm. His absence extended into the 2025 season, but after making four rehab starts — including nine straight scoreless Triple-A frames — McCullers is now set to finally return to the majors.

“It’s a day I’ve been waiting for a long time,” McCullers replied when asked what Sunday’s return means to him (video link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). “I almost feel like I’m making my debut in some aspects. It’s been a really long road for me. I thank my teammates, the coaching staff, the Astros organization for standing by me and supporting me.”

Injuries have been a persistent theme throughout the now-31-year-old McCullers’ career, but there’s never been any doubt of his abilities when he’s been healthy enough to pitch. The former No. 41 overall draft pick was a top prospect before making his debut in 2015 and has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in six of his seven major league seasons. Overall, McCullers touts a career 3.48 earned run average, 26.5% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate in 718 2/3 regular season frames. His work in 72 2/3 postseason innings is nearly identical: 3.47 ERA, 26.5% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate.

It’s impossible to know what to expect from McCullers on the heels of such a lengthy absence. If he can recapture even 80% of his prior form, he’d be a boon to an Astros staff that has five other rotation options on the injured list (Luis Garcia, J.P. France, Cristian Javier, Spencer Arrighetti, Shawn Dubin). Hunter Brown has been one of MLB’s best pitchers this year, and fellow starters Framber Valdez and Hayden Wesneski have pitched well. Ryan Gusto has impressed in a small sample of 19 innings since being thrust into the rotation following Arighetti’s injury. Last year’s rotation savior, Ronel Blanco, has stumbled out of the gate with a 5.08 ERA.

On the whole, Astros starters rank seven in the majors with a 3.50 earned run average, but Blanco has struggled and the depth beyond the current quintet is a bit suspect. A healthy McCullers would be a pivotal development.

Houston signed McCullers to a five-year, $85MM extension back in March 2021 — a rare (but hardly unheard of) extension for a Boras Corporation client on the cusp of free agency. He was excellent in ’21, but those previously mentioned 63 innings (regular season and postseason combined) in 2022 are the only innings he’s pitched throughout the duration of that extension. He’s being paid $17MM this year and next in the final two seasons of that contract.

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