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Pirates Claim Trey Cabbage From Astros

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The Pirates are claiming first baseman/corner outfielder Trey Cabbage from the Astros, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). Neither team has officially announced the move.

Houston had not previously designated Cabbage for assignment. They evidently placed him on waivers in recent days to take him off the 40-man roster. He would’ve qualified for minor league free agency had he gone unclaimed, but Pittsburgh saw enough to give him a 40-man spot.

Cabbage, 27, has played in 67 big league contests over the last two years. He made 22 appearances for the Angels two seasons ago and got into 45 contests with Houston this year. He hasn’t done much offensively, limping to a .209/.245/.331 slash line while striking out 60 times in 147 plate appearances (a 40.8% rate). The swing-and-miss is nothing new, as Cabbage has fanned in more than 30% of his Triple-A plate appearances. He has shown big power and surprising athleticism in his minor league career, though, including a 30-30 showing in the Halos’ system back in 2023.

Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to find an answer at first base in recent seasons. Cabbage isn’t a long-term solution, but he’s a depth flier who still has a minor league option remaining. If the Bucs carry him on the 40-man all winter, they can keep him in Triple-A for another season.

Astros To Hire Tony Perezchica As Third Base Coach

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The Astros are hiring Tony Perezchica to serve as third base coach, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Perezchica has held the same role with the Diamondbacks for the last eight years. Piecoro notes that Perezchica had served as an infield instructor with Arizona and is expected to do the same in Houston while taking on an expanded role working with minor league infielders.

Perezchica, 58, briefly appeared in the majors between 1988-92. He has spent nearly three decades in the coaching ranks. The majority of that experience has come with the Diamondbacks. Perezchica took a managerial role with one of Arizona’s rookie ball affiliates back in 2003. He joined Torey Lovullo’s first coaching staff in the desert over the 2016-17 offseason.

The Astros decided not to renew the contract of previous third base coach Gary Pettis. Chandler Rome of the Athletic writes that the Astros don’t plan to go outside the organization for additional hires, though the staff hasn’t been finalized and it’s possible other teams express interest in hiring coaches away from Houston. If no one departs for a better opportunity, it seems the Astros will only make the one coaching change.

There’s more turnover in Phoenix. Arizona fired three pitching coaches (including former Astros staffer Brent Strom) a few weeks ago. They now have four vacancies to address.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

No-Doubters

There’s zero suspense with this quintet. They’re going to receive qualifying offers, which they’ll easily decline. Soto is on his way to a record-setting deal. Adames and Bregman are locks for nine figures. Alonso has a solid chance to get there as well. It’s tougher to envision a $100MM contract for Santander, but he shouldn’t have any issue securing three or four years at an average annual value that’s around the QO price. As revenue sharing recipients, the Brewers and Orioles will get picks after the first round in the 2025 draft (assuming Adames and Santander sign for more than $50MM). The Mets, Yankees and Astros all paid the luxury tax and would only get a pick after the fourth round if they lose their qualified free agents.

Likely Recipients

We placed Hernández in the “likely” bucket last offseason when he was coming off a down year with the Mariners. Seattle opted not to make the QO and let him walk, citing a desire to cut back on the swing-and-miss profile that Hernández brings. That paved the way for the Dodgers to add him on a heavily deferred $23.5MM pillow contract. It was one of the best value signings of the winter. Hernández returned to peak form, bopping a career-best 33 homers with a .272/.339/.501 line through 652 plate appearances. That’s more than enough power to live with a few strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile in the corner outfield.

The cherry on top for L.A. is that Hernández remains eligible for the QO in his return to free agency. The Dodgers could accommodate a $21MM salary in the unlikely event that he accepts. As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he declines and walks. That minimal compensation is the biggest reason Hernández isn’t a lock, but he’s very likely to decline the QO in search of three or four years. The downside if he accepts is that he returns at a similar price point to the one Los Angeles offered coming off a rough season. Opting against the QO only makes sense if the Dodgers are fully committed to giving Andy Pages a look in left field next season.

Walker has seized upon a late-career opportunity with the Diamondbacks to develop into one of the sport’s best first basemen. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender who topped 30 homers in both 2022 and ’23. He’d have gotten there again this season if not for an oblique injury that cost him the entire month of August. Walker had to “settle” for 26 homers with a .251/.335/.468 slash over 130 games.

The South Carolina product turns 34 just after Opening Day. He’s looking at four years at most and could wind up signing for two or three seasons. That could come at a comparable AAV to the qualifying offer price, though, and this is likely Walker’s only chance to really cash in on a multi-year contract. He’d likely decline a QO. If he didn’t, the D-Backs should be happy to have him back for another season at just over $21MM. The majority of MLBTR readers agree; more than 70% of respondents in a poll over the weekend opined that the Diamondbacks should make the offer.

Long Shots

It’s tough to see a qualifying offer for anyone in this group. Goldschmidt is the least likely. The Cardinals are entering a retooling year and he’s coming off the worst season of his career. The former MVP hit better in the second half than he did in the first. He should land a strong one-year deal but isn’t likely to get to $21MM.

Kim looked like a lock for the QO before suffering a late-season labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that’ll almost certainly sideline him into the early part of next year. There’s a decent chance he’d accept, which isn’t a great outcome for a Padres team that may enter the offseason already up against the budget. Payroll is a similar concern regarding Profar, who is coming off easily the best season of his career. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his decade-plus in the big leagues. San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller loves Profar, but $21MM+ is a lot for a team with a massive arbitration class and needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Padres could try to bring him back for three or four years at a lesser annual hit.

O’Neill had a productive season for the Sox, hitting 31 homers with a .241/.336/.511 slash. He added three more IL stints to his lengthy career injury history, though, and the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitching. O’Neill’s righty bat provides a nice balance in a Boston lineup that skews heavily to the left side, but the QO price feels steep for this profile. There’s a strong chance he’d accept.

Torres would not have warranted a mention on this list a couple months ago. He had an excellent finish to the regular season (.306/.375/.417 after August 1) and has a .297/.400/.432 slash with more walks than strikeouts in October. That’s enough to at least get him back on the radar, but a QO still feels like a stretch. He’s a poor defensive second baseman whose overall season line — .257/.330/.378 in 665 plate appearances — was essentially league average.

At the trade deadline, the Yankees seemed set to turn the keystone to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and let Torres walk. They could keep Chisholm at the hot corner, but they’d need to overlook the flaws Torres showed for a good portion of the regular season. There’s a strong chance he’d accept a QO, which would put the Yanks on the hook for more than $44MM after accounting for the corresponding luxury tax hit. Tying that money up a week into an offseason where they’ll face a massive bidding war on Soto probably isn’t happening. That’s especially true since the compensation they’d receive if Torres declines (a pick after the fourth round) isn’t particularly valuable.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. That’s largely a moot point with regard to the position player class, as no one from this group was likely to receive one anyways. Bellinger probably won’t opt out of the two years and $50MM left on his deal with the Cubs. Conforto and Pederson would’ve been fringe candidates at best even if they hadn’t received the offer earlier in their careers.

Gary Pettis Won’t Return To Astros’ Staff In 2025

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The Astros are parting ways with third base/outfield coach Gary Pettis after 10 seasons, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Pettis hasn’t technically been fired, but his contract expired at the end of the 2024 season and will not be renewed for the 2025 campaign.

Pettis, 66, played in parts of 11 big league seasons, spending the bulk of his time with the Angels but also appearing in three seasons as a Tiger, two as a Ranger and one as a Padre. He never provided a ton of offense, hitting .236/.332/.310 in more than 4200 MLB plate appearances, but he swiped 354 bags and won five Gold Gloves in center field. Those 354 steals are currently tied with Starling Marte for 106th in big league history.

After wrapping up his playing career, Pettis held coaching gigs with the Halos, White Sox, Mets and Rangers from 1995 through 2014. His decade-long stint with the Astros has been the lengthiest stop of his coaching career by far. He’s worked under three general managers (Jeff Luhnow, James Click, Dana Brown) and three managers as well (A.J. Hinch, Dusty Baker, Joe Espada). If he wants to continue his coaching work, he should have ample interest from other clubs given his background in the area.

Moving on from Pettis is, thus far, the only change to Houston’s coaching staff. The club has not yet formally announced its 2025 staff, so it’s possible there will be more turnover revealed in the weeks ahead. The 2024 season was Espada’s first year as manager after six seasons as the bench coach — first under Hinch and later under Baker. Espada retained Baker’s entire coaching staff after taking the reins in Houston heading into the current season, with first base coach Omar Lopez being promoted to bench coach duties, replacing Espada in that regard. Dave Clark, who’d been managing in the Astros’ minor league ranks, joined the big league staff and took over Lopez’s duties as first base coach.

10 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com log.

Outfielders

Pitchers

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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The Astros overcame a slow start to pull away with another division title. They weren't able to extend their remarkable streak of seven consecutive trips to the AL Championship Series, as the red-hot Tigers swept them at Minute Maid Park. The attention immediately turns to the potential loss of their longtime third baseman.

Guaranteed Contracts

Additional financial commitments

  • Owe released first baseman José Abreu $19.5MM through 2025

2025 financial commitments: $142MM
Total future commitments: $416MM

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Urquidy, McCormick, Murfee

Free Agents

The Astros remain firmly in win-now mode but are facing the potential free agent departure of a core player. That's a situation they've successfully navigated before. Houston has allowed Carlos Correa and George Springer to walk without taking a step back. Are they prepared to do the same with Alex Bregman?

That's the biggest question of Houston's offseason. General manager Dana Brown has said time and again that he hopes to keep Bregman. Multiple Astros players have gone on record talking about his importance both on the field and in the clubhouse. The financial picture doesn't point toward a reunion being likely, though.

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Jose Abreu To Play Winter Ball In Preparation For 2025 Comeback Bid

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Veteran first baseman Jose Abreu has signed on with los Senadores de San Juan to play in the Puerto Rican Winter League this offseason as he gears up for a hopeful big league return in 2025, reports Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com.

The 2024 season was an abject nightmare for Abreu, whose struggles with the Astros led to him getting optioned to Triple-A at one point and eventually released midway through the second season of a three-year, $58.5MM free agent deal that stands as a colossal misstep for the Astros (who were operating without a general manager at the time of the deal, leaving owner Jim Crane to oversee baseball operations decisions). Abreu hit just .237/.296/.383 in year one of the contract but still popped 18 homers and enjoyed a strong finish that created some cautious optimism about the current season. Any such hopes of a rebound quickly faded, however, when Abreu tanked with a calamitous .124/.167/.195 batting line in 120 plate appearances prior to his release.

It was an unfathomable decline for a former AL MVP who was a consistent force in the middle of the White Sox lineup for nine years prior to signing in Houston. Even detractors who pointed to red flags in his batted-ball profile and declining power in his final year with Chicago couldn’t have reasonably predicted a drop-off of such extreme magnitude.

With that type of production (or lack thereof) in the immediate rearview mirror and Abreu’s 38th birthday looming in January, the odds of a resurgence feel fairly slim. That said, Abreu is still locked into the third year of that Astros contract, meaning any team can sign him and owe him only the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster.

For a player with Abreu’s track record of thunderous production — to say nothing of his frequently cited leadership traits and clubhouse value — taking what amounts to a free look could hold appeal to a number of clubs. That could be especially true for payroll-conscious clubs with younger in-house options who could grow into a more prominent role but are as of yet unproven. Only time will tell whether he shows enough in winter ball to get that opportunity, but his production will be worth tracking; the Puerto Rican Winter League kicks off in November.

Mauricio Dubon To Undergo Thumb Surgery

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Astros infielder/outfielder Mauricio Dubon is slated to undergo surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb this week, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Dubon played the final month of the season with the torn the ligament, Rome reports. The recovery period will be around six to eight weeks, leaving ample time for the versatile utilityman to be healed up by spring training.

Houston acquired the 30-year-old Dubon in a May 2022 trade that sent journeyman catcher Michael Papierski back to the Giants. He’s since emerged as a key role player for the ’Stros, hitting .274/.303/.388 in 920 plate appearances over the past two seasons while playing everywhere on the diamond other than on the mound or behind the plate. Rome notes that Dubon suffered the injury on a slide in early September but went on to hit .291/.322/.346 down the stretch while playing through considerable pain. Though he lacks power, Dubon is an exceptionally tough strikeout (12.9% this past season) and excels on the defensive side of the game, evidenced by a Gold Glove in 2023.

Dubon is arbitration-eligible this offseason and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a reasonable $4.6MM salary. That’ll stand as a raise over this year’s $3.5MM salary, which he earned after winning an arb hearing over the Astros back in February.

While injuries can at times be a catalyst for an arb-eligible player to be non-tendered, that’s highly unlikely in this instance. The Astros can control Dubon through the 2026 season, and there’s no reason to think the surgery will impact his readiness for the 2025 campaign. He should return to the same utility role that saw him log 93 innings at first base, 138 at second base, 75 at third base, 32 at shortstop, 405 in left field, 153 in center field and 88 in right field this past season. As a career .281/.324/.442 hitter against southpaws, he should also be a regular piece of Houston’s attack versus lefties (even if he had a down showing in that regard this past season).

Brown: Astros May Have To Get “Creative” With Payroll

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The Astros’ incredible run of seven consecutive runs to the American League Championship Series ended yesterday when they ran into a scorching-hot Tigers club helmed by former Houston skipper A.J. Hinch. Although the ’Stros had their shortest season since 2016 and have a number of high-profile free agents coming off the books, general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada both made clear in addressing the team’s beat that there’s no plan to step back. Houston will unsurprisingly take aim at another deep postseason run next year, although the looming offseason could be one punctuated by some tighter-than-usual financial parameters.

“I think we’re going to have to make some wise decisions as to – are there younger players that we can call up and put in certain roles to maybe save some money here and … allocate that money to other places,” Brown said Thursday (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. “…We may have to get a little bit creative.”

That’s an ominous sentiment for any fan to hear from a team’s GM at the onset of the offseason. A look at Houston’s payroll, however, reveals a similarly ominous setup. The Astros opened the 2024 season with a payroll around $235MM and finished out the year north of $244MM, per RosterResource. They already have $147MM in guaranteed contracts on next year’s books (including dead-money commitments to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero). That doesn’t include a 10-player arbitration class — headlined by Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker — projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to cost more than $57MM. Add in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and the Astros are sitting around the $212MM mark next year before making a single addition.

In the absence of any notable free agent departures, perhaps that’d be workable, but the Astros will see franchise cornerstone Alex Bregman reach the open market for the first time in his career next month. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander is also a free agent, as is deadline pickup Yusei Kikuchi, who thrived in the Houston rotation down the stretch. Relievers Caleb Ferguson, Hector Neris and Kendall Graveman are free agents as well, as are role players Jason Heyward and Ben Gamel.

Bregman, of course, is the most notable name of the bunch. Espada plainly stated that he hopes Bregman will return and heaped praise onto the former No. 2 overall pick for not only his on-field contributions but the manner in which he’s been the heart and soul of the team’s clubhouse.

“I’ve talked a lot about how much I love the individual, the human,” Espada said of Bregman (X link via MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart). “I think what makes this team really good is the character of the people in clubhouse. He’s one of the best I’ve ever been around. I would love to have Bregman playing third base for us next year.”

Whether that’s feasible remains an open question. Teammate Jose Altuve has stumped for Bregman’s return in recent days — even before the team’s elimination — and Brown has said since being hired in the 2022-23 offseason that he hopes to keep Bregman in Houston for the entirety of his career. That talk has yet to manifest in the form of a contract, although the Astros are reportedly expected to put forth a formal offer soon. Brown doubled down on his hope of keeping Bregman and plans to talk with agent Scott Boras about a reunion (X link via McTaggart), but there are reasons to be skeptical of a deal coming to fruition.

The Astros, under owner Jim Crane, have never given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM deal — nor have they given out a contract worth a larger guarantee than Jose Altuve’s most recent $151MM extension. Josh Hader’s five-year contract is the lengthiest and largest in guaranteed money that Houston has given to a free agent under current ownership. Bregman stands as one of the top-five free agents on this season’s market, arguably the No. 2 or 3 name in this year’s class behind Juan Soto.

Hitting the market in advance of his age-31 season, Bregman will have a case for a six- or possibly seven-year deal. He’s a year younger than fellow third baseman Matt Chapman, who just inked a six-year, $151MM extension to stay in San Francisco. Seven-year guarantees for position players beginning in their age-31 season or later are rare, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, though Marcus Semien (seven years, $175MM with the Rangers) stands as a recent prominent example.

Even if Bregman is limited to “only” six years, he’ll surely seek a larger guarantee than Chapman just received last month. Chapman didn’t have the benefit of open-market bidding, and Bregman, even if he can’t match Chapman’s wizardry with the glove, is a quality defender who has been the more consistent offensive player of the pair. In addition to the Astros, clubs like the Yankees, Tigers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Royals and Nationals could be in the market for third base help. Unexpected suitors frequently emerge in pursuit of top-tier free agents, too.

Given Bregman’s tenure with the team and value on and off the field, it’s certainly feasible that Crane could push beyond his previous comfort levels to keep him in the fold. In that case, Bregman would likely push Houston close to $240MM of payroll obligations — or at least north of $230MM on a backloaded deal. Creatively structuring the contract, however, wouldn’t impact the luxury tax in the same way it does bottom-line payroll. Luxury tax is calculated based on contracts’ average annual value; re-signing Bregman would push the Astros into tax territory for a second straight season and only the third time under Crane’s ownership.

Brown left open the door for virtually any possibility, telling reporters the Astros “are not taking anything off the table in terms of what we’ll do” (link via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Still, it’s hard to envision a scenario where they both re-sign Bregman and add the bullpen pieces he also said will be a focus this winter (X link via McTaggart). Houston could always turn to the trade market to drop some payroll from other areas of the roster, but they surely won’t consider moving Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker or Valdez, and the contracts of Josh Hader and Lance McCullers Jr. aren’t going to draw interest from other clubs. Ryan Pressly’s remaining one year and $14MM could be movable, but flipping him would only further the need to add bullpen arms.

One area the Astros don’t seem likely to spend heavily is in the rotation. Brown called next year’s staff “stacked.” The Astros will bring back Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. Injured righties McCullers and Luis Garcia will hopefully be ready for the start of the season after missing all of 2024. Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy (if he’s tendered a contract) and J.P. France could all be midseason reinforcements. Prospect Ryan Gusto, 25, had a nice season in Triple-A (3.70 ERA, 22.6 K%, 8.5 BB%, 148 1/3 innings).

It’s a group that, as of right now, doesn’t include Verlander. Brown touched on the subject of the three-time Cy Young winner (X link via McTaggart), noting that it “sounds like he wants to come back” but that he’ll “have some discussions with our front office … as to what’s best for the team.” Verlander spent much of the 2024 season on the injured list due to shoulder and neck injuries. He struggled badly enough down the stretch in his final six starts (8.89 ERA) that he wasn’t included on the team’s roster for the Wild Card Series against Detroit. With the Astros facing mounting payroll issues and already possessing a fairly deep stock of arms, a reunion may not be in the cards.

Justin Verlander Planning To Pitch In 2025

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It was a frustrating season for Justin Verlander but he doesn’t plan on it being his last. He told reporters, including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle, that he plans on pitching again in 2025. “I think I do feel like I have a lot more to give pitching-wise,” Verlander said. “This year was a tough year. Learned a lot from it.”

Verlander was only able to make 17 starts and log 90 1/3 innings this year. He started the year on the injured list due to some shoulder inflammation, though he was reinstated in the middle of April. After 10 starts with a 3.95 ERA and 21.3% strikeout rate, he went back on the IL due to neck discomfort, an injury that perhaps he never really recovered from. He was reinstated from the IL in August but opined last month that he may have returned too quickly. He reiterated that sentiment this week.

“I’ve talked to you guys about how I was feeling coming back and how I needed to push the issue a bit. Kind of a weird injury in the neck. Tried as best I could to get out there and be an asset to help this team in October but wasn’t able to do it.”

Verlander made seven more starts in August and September but his strikeout rate was just 14.6% in that time as he allowed 30 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings. That gave him an 8.10 ERA in that stretch and bumped his season-long ERA to 5.48, the highest of his career apart from a two-start debut back in 2005. With those poor results, the Astros decided to leave him off their postseason roster. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown started the club’s two games against the Tigers but Houston lost both, ending their season prior to the ALCS for the first time since 2016.

“Obviously, wasn’t pitching well enough to be a part of this series,” Verlander said. “But having an offseason to kind of get things right, I definitely feel like I want to continue to pitch and compete. And I’m not ready to step away yet.”

Despite the rough campaign, Verlander is determined to keep going, which isn’t surprising. Way back in 2018, he told Jon Morosi of MLB.com that he wanted to pitch until he was 45 if he could. He is still a few years away from that marker, as he is set to turn 42 in February.

Perhaps the health issues give him an explanation for his rough results, but increased injury woes are to be expected for a player pushing his career to great lengths. Keeping his body in a place where he can maximize his results will be a challenge but one that Verlander is surely going to tackle as best as he can.

It wasn’t too long ago that Verlander was still posting elite results. Though he missed most of 2020 and all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, he had an incredible bounce back in 2022. At the age of 39 and after missing almost two full years, he tossed 175 innings over 28 starts with a 1.75 ERA, 27.8% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate.

He won that year’s American League Cy Young award and went into free agency on a strong note. He was able to secure a two-year deal with a $43.33MM annual salary from the Mets, as well as a conditional player option for 2025. The first year of the deal went fine for Verlander personally, though the Mets fell out of contention and dealt him back to Houston at the deadline. He finished 2023 with a 3.22 ERA over 27 starts, despite his strikeout rate falling to 21.5%.

As mentioned, the results backed up here in 2024. The injuries preventing him from unlocking the $35MM player option, as he needed to toss 140 innings this year but finished well short of that. That means he is slated to return to the open market in a few weeks.

He will naturally have significantly less earning power than he did two years ago, both on account of his increased age and worse platform season, but there should still be a notable deal for him out there. Zack Greinke got $8.5MM from the Royals for 2023, his age-39 season. He secured that on the heels of a 2022 campaign in which he tossed 137 innings with a 3.68 ERA but a 12.5% strikeout rate. Lance Lynn had an ERA of 5.73 in 2023 but was still able to secure an $11MM guarantee from the Cardinals for 2024, his age-37 season. Corey Kluber got a $10MM guarantee from the Red Sox for 2023, his age-37 season, despite plenty of notable health concerns in prior seasons.

Verlander is going into his age-42 season and will be older than all of those pitchers were when those deals were signed, but he also has a more impressive overall track record and plenty of recent success he can point to. For a closer age comparison, Rich Hill got $8MM from the Pirates going into 2023, his age-43 season. He got that after tossing 124 1/3 innings with a 4.27 ERA the year prior. That’s a better platform year than what Verlander is current taking to free agency but Hill’s overall résumé can’t match up to Verlander’s.

In short, there will be opportunities available to Verlander, the question will be where. He has spent most of his recent career with the Astros, with that brief stint with the Mets the notable exception. Perhaps he and the club will reunite again, as they could use some rotation help. As of now, their 2025 starting pitching group projects to include Valdez, Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti. They could fill out that group with Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr. or J.P. France, though those pitchers are currently unknown quantities after missing most or all of 2024 while recovering from surgeries.

Per RosterResource, the Astros project to be have a spending gap of more than $100MM between 2024 and 2025, both in terms of pure payroll and their competitive balance tax number. However, that gap is actually narrower when considering the full picture. The arbitration projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz have the Astros slated to pay over $58MM to a group headlined by Valdez and Kyle Tucker. A couple of non-tenders will knock that down a bit, but the club also plans to discuss a significant contract with impending free agent Alex Bregman. They also have a hole at first base that will need to be addressed somehow.

Given that the club has traded for Verlander a couple of times and also re-signed him in free agency twice, it’s probably fair to expect that they will work something out regardless of where the budget goes in the months to come, though it’s also possible they decide it’s time to go in a different direction. Wherever he ends up, Verlander will be looking to add to a body of work that already has him as a lock for the Hall of Fame. He has 262 wins, the most among active pitchers, while his 3,416 strikeouts are 10th on the all-time list.

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