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“No Traction” Between Cardinals, Astros In Nolan Arenado Talks

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While a report earlier today revealed that the Cardinals and Astros have resumed discussions regarding veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado, a report from Chandler Rome and Katie Woo of The Athletic this evening has cast doubt on the likelihood of a deal coming together. According to Rome and Woo, although the sides did re-engage about Arenado in the aftermath of Alex Bregman signing with the Red Sox, those renewed discussions were “brief” and that there has been no traction gained on a deal between the sides. Rome and Woo add that Arenado’s stance on waiving his no-trade clause to join the Astros has not changed to this point.

The report meshes with comments from president of baseball operations John Mozeliak earlier today, in which he suggested to reporters that he didn’t feel anything was “imminent” regarding Arenado. Rome and Woo go on to relay that sources described the possibility of a deal coming together between the two teams as a “long shot,” adding that a deal the sides discussed involving Arenado was considered a “non-starter.” Given that description of talks between the two sides, it’s not entirely clear if Arenado has been approached by St. Louis brass about the possibility of approving a trade to Houston since the Astros tried to reignite talks or if discussions between the sides did not advance far enough for Mozeliak to even broach the subject with his veteran star.

Even when Arenado first blocked a trade to Houston back in December, reporting was quick to emphasize that Arenado’s reluctance to approve the trade was not necessarily a final decision and that he was hoping to survey his own market as well as see how the Astros planned to improve the club after trading star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs just before Arenado vetoed a prospective move to Houston. Now that Bregman has landed in Boston, the Red Sox join the Padres and Dodgers as unlikely landing spots for the veteran due to their full infield mixes. The Yankees have a clear hole at third base Arenado could step into fairly seamlessly, but talks between the Bronx and St. Louis have failed to gain traction due to New York’s unwillingness to spend much beyond their current payroll projection.

That leaves the Astros as the final team reportedly on Arenado’s initial list of approved suitors as things stand. It’s possible that the lack of clear alternative options, in tandem with the Astros’ addition of Christian Walker to their infield mix, would be enough to convince Arenado to approve a trade to Houston. At the same time, it’s entirely possible that Arenado would prefer to play the first half of the season out in St. Louis at this point before both he and Mozeliak reassess the situation over the summer, when St. Louis’s position in an unsettled NL Central division will be more clear and Arenado will have a more concrete idea of which clubs are contenders for the coming postseason.

Rome and Woo go on to note that the Astros’ latest push to swing a deal for Arenado highlights the questions surrounding the Astros’ lineup at this point. Longtime second baseman Jose Altuve appears to be moving towards playing left field at least on a part-time basis, though a trade for Arenado would be expected to make the veteran a full-time presence in left while Isaac Paredes slides from third base to second to accommodate Arenado. Should Altuve end up moving to left field for the majority of his reps this year, that leaves the club fairly thin around the infield with only Mauricio Dubon and non-roster invitees like Brendan Rodgers and Luis Guillorme available to play second base on days Altuve is in left and/or back up the rest of the club’s infield mix.

Even if Altuve were to remain at second base close to full time, however, it can be argued the club is still a bat short. Jake Meyers appears poised to be the club’s regular center fielder with Ben Gamel and Chas McCormick handling the outfield corners. Gamel and McCormick both feature significant platoon splits, however, and adding at least one part-time outfield bat to the mix seems prudent whether that’s the addition of Altuve to the outfield mix or an external addition should the veteran remain on the infield dirt.

Free agent options are relatively scarce at this point in the calendar, with Jose Iglesias and Whit Merrifield the best infield pieces still available while Alex Verdugo, Mark Canha, and David Peralta are among a handful of outfield options still on the market. It’s also possible the Astros could look for other alternatives on the trade market, though with rosters largely set for the coming season it’s unclear what players could still be available that would represent a substantial improvement for the club relative to their current situation.

Cardinals, Astros Again Discussing Nolan Arenado Trade

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4:03PM: While that Mozeliak initially declined to comment on any potential new trade talks or the possibility of Arenado approving a deal (as noted by Denton), he later told reporters (including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that he “does not feel like anything is imminent” regarding Arenado and that nothing has changed since the veteran third baseman reported to camp.

1:16PM: Nolan Arenado used his no-trade clause to veto a proposed trade to the Astros back in December, which seemingly ended the third baseman’s chances of going to Houston once the Astros pivoted to then add Christian Walker to their infield mix.  However, just as it seemed the Cardinals’ chances of dealing Arenado this offseason had run out, St. Louis and Houston have re-engaged on a new set of talks on an Arenado trade, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, Mark Feinsand, and John Denton.

It would be quite a wild conclusion to one of the offseason’s top storylines if Arenado ended up in an Astros uniform after all, yet Houston’s increased willingness to move Jose Altuve from second base to left field may have created an opening for these fresh negotiations between the Astros and Cardinals.  Arenado would take over from Isaac Paredes at third base, with Paredes then moving to Altuve’s old spot at second base.  Reports of Altuve’s willingness to play left field emerged when the Astros were exploring the idea of re-signing Alex Bregman, and Altuve has been hard at work doing outfield drills in the early stages of Spring Training.

Astros manager Joe Espada has yet to make any firm statements about Altuve’s readiness as a left fielder, as Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) that it will still be another week before Altuve lines up in the outfield during spring game action.  Still, it could be a sign of the Astros’ comfort level in Altuve’s outfield capability that the team is again looking into the possibility of an Arenado deal.

The ball is ultimately in Arenado’s court due to his no-trade protection, yet Houston was one of the five teams that Arenado told the Cardinals front office he was open to joining.  The fact that Arenado rejected the earlier trade to Houston seems to have been just a matter of timing, as the offer apparently came just after the Astros dealt Kyle Tucker to the Cubs, and Arenado wanted a bit more time to evaluate the situation.  Rather than continue to wait out Arenado’s decision, the Astros instead went out and signed Walker to a three-year, $60MM deal, which seemed to reinforce Walker and Paredes as the team’s new corner infield combo.

Houston was willing to disrupt that new status quo if it meant re-signing its longtime third baseman in Bregman, however, and the same could be true here if the Astros and Cardinals can find common ground on a trade, and if Arenado this time green-lights the proceedings.  By the same measure, the Astros were willing to stretch their budget to accommodate Bregman’s return, and the same would have to be true if Arenado’s contract is acquired.  Arenado is owed $74MM over the next three seasons, though that number is really $60MM when factoring in deferrals and the $10MM covered by the Rockies as per the terms of the original trade that sent Arenado from Colorado to St. Louis in the 2020-21 offseason.

In the previous trade offer, the Astros would have taken on $40MM-$45MM of Arenado’s still-owed salary, with the Cards eating the rest.  It isn’t known if any type of significant prospects might have been included as well, but it could be that Houston was offering just a minimal player return since the Cardinals’ top priority was moving as much of Arenado’s salary as possible off the team’s books.  Speculatively speaking, the Astros could be looking to still land Arenado but with the Cardinals absorbing a larger portion of the salary, perhaps leveraging the fact that the Cards are short on alternative options if they want to move Arenado at all.

Trading Arenado and gaining this salary relief has been the chief goal of the St. Louis offseason, yet Arenado’s limited list of suitors left president of baseball operations John Mozeliak without much of a plan B after the Astros trade was nixed.  The Red Sox were another team on Arenado’s approval list, but their third base need was met when Boston signed Bregman.  As the Cards’ spring camp opened, both Mozeliak and Arenado indicated that a trade now seemed unlikely and Arenado was probably going to start the season in St. Louis, so these late talks with Houston could be a Hail Mary development for both teams.

Details On Nolan Arenado Trade Talks

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For much of the offseason, a Nolan Arenado trade seemed inevitable. But spring training is now rolling along and he’s still a Cardinal. Today, Katie Woo of The Athletic takes an extensive look at the twists and turns of the winter. Many of the details came out over the past few months but the piece also provides some new tidbits and extra context.

Arenado’s no-trade clause was clearly a key part of the offseason narrative and the club’s efforts to trade him. Reports throughout the winter suggested there was a narrow group of clubs he was willing to join, which Woo confirms in her overview. Arenado told president of baseball operations John Mozeliak that he was willing to waive his no-trade for five clubs: the Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Red Sox and Astros.

The first three clubs on that list never seemed especially interested. The Yankees were focused on Juan Soto at the start of the offseason. After missing out there, they pivoted to getting Max Fried, Devin Williams, Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger. The Dodgers have Max Muncy at third and didn’t seem keen on a switch. The Padres have Manny Machado at the hot corner. Arenado was reportedly willing to move to a new position but the Friars have budgetary concerns that made a fit tough regardless.

It’s well known by now that the Astros were interested and seemed to have a deal lined up, but Arenado blocked it. Reporting has suggested that Arenado was open to going to Houston but was a bit concerned by the club trading Kyle Tucker and seemingly moving on from Alex Bregman. Woo’s reporting aligns with that framing, with Arenado wanting some time to think about the possibility of becoming an Astro. She writes that he was aware they might move on while he was taking some time to ponder the idea, which is what happened. They quickly signed Christian Walker to cover first base, which effectively locked Isaac Paredes into the third base spot.

That left the Red Sox as the best landing spot for Arenado, with Boston genuinely interested. However, they bolstered their infield by waiting out Bregman and signing him, taking them out of the running for Arenado.

Woo reports that other clubs checked in about Arenado’s availability, including the Royals, Tigers, Mariners and Angels. Those were all sensible on-paper landing spots. The Royals were looking to add a big bat to the lineup and could bump Maikel Garcia to a utility role. The Tigers were involved in the Bregman market, making him a six-figure offer, clearly indicating a willingness to add an established third baseman ahead of prospect Jace Jung. The infield had been a target for the Mariners this winter, who eventually added Donovan Solano and re-signed Jorge Polanco. The Angels were looking to add at third base with Anthony Rendon no longer reliable, eventually signing Yoán Moncada. However, none of those clubs made progress with the Cardinals, as they were informed that Arenado wasn’t interested in waiving his no-trade protection for them.

All of that led to Mozeliak recently declaring that Arenado would stay a Cardinal, suggesting that he would have to change his team preferences in order for a deal to come together. That doesn’t seem likely to come to pass. Arenado has a two-year-old kid and is apparently only open to uprooting his family under very specific circumstances. It’s long been reported that Arenado is primarily motivated by winning but it appears that his off-field circumstances are also playing a notable role in his decision making. “I don’t see myself changing that list ever,” Arenado said. “I have a family now. … To be willing to pick up my family and move them, it has to be something that’s worth it.”

That’s his right as a player with a no-trade clause, though it leaves the Cardinals in an awkward spot. They are doing a reset, trying to turn the franchise away from upgrading the big league roster to a focus more on player development. It’s unclear how long it will take them to make a full-throated attempt at competing again. For now, Arenado is still on the team, which his contract running through 2027. He’ll be 36 years old in the final year of that pact.

It’s possible a trade could come together at the deadline or in another offseason, but it seems it would have to involve a change at one of Arenado’s preferred destinations. Muncy is in the final guaranteed year of his deal, so perhaps a move to the Dodgers for 2026 is possible, though they could keep Muncy around for ’26 via a $10MM club option. Goldschmidt is only on a one-year deal, so the Yankees might have more interest in an infield addition next winter. Bregman could opt out of his Boston deal, though they have a number of infield prospects likely to be coming up this year. Perhaps the Padres would have interest next winter after Luis Arráez, Dylan Cease and Michael King hit free agency, with Robert Suarez having the change to opt-out as well. A significant injury or two could always change the calculus somewhere.

“If something comes up and it makes sense, I’ll certainly get with him and we’ll talk about it,” Mozeliak said over the weekend. “But it’s not something where I’m getting up every morning and chasing the waiver wire or chasing injuries. I think from our fan perspective, from our team perspective, from our perspective, he is a part of the Cardinals.”

It’s an interesting end to an offseason where Mozeliak regarded an Arenado trade as a top priority. The Cards wanted to reduce payroll and open up some playing time for younger players. They could have dropped the payroll in other ways, such as by trading guys like Ryan Helsley or Erick Fedde, but haven’t shown much interest in doing that in the short term. Perhaps the Cardinals will end up being one of the most interesting clubs to watch when the July deadline rolls around, whether Arenado is likely to move or not.

Astros, Brendan Rodgers Agree To Minor League Deal

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February 21: Per Chandler Rome of The Athletic, Rodgers has three opt-outs in his deal: end of spring training, May 1 and June 1.

February 18: The Astros are in agreement with second baseman Brendan Rodgers on a minor league contract, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. The signing, which is still pending a physical, includes a non-roster invite to Spring Training. Colorado had non-tendered Rodgers in lieu of paying a projected $5.5MM salary for his final arbitration season.

Rodgers had spent his entire career with the Rockies. Colorado drafted him out of high school with the third overall pick in 2015. He was one of the game’s top prospects for a few seasons, though he never developed into the impact hitter expected at the time. Rodgers spent four years as Colorado’s primary second baseman, posting slightly below-average numbers after adjusting for Coors Field.

The right-handed hitter has turned in a .266/.316/.409 slash line in more than 1800 career plate appearances. He put up virtually identical numbers last year, posting a .267/.314/.407 mark across 539 trips to the dish. Rodgers hit 13 home runs with middling strikeout and walk rates. He hit the ball on the ground at a career-high 56.1% rate. Among hitters with 500+ plate appearances, no one hit the ball on the ground more often.

Rodgers has put more than half his batted balls on the ground in each season of his career. That has capped his power potential despite his home park and solid exit velocities. Like many Colorado hitters, he’s had a difficult time acclimating away from Coors Field. Rodgers is a .306/.361/.465 career hitter in Denver. He has turned in a .227/.272/.356 mark on the road. Hitting on the road is a challenge for Rockies hitters, who need to adapt to sharper breaking stuff than they usually see in higher altitudes at home. Projecting Rodgers isn’t as simple as looking solely at his road numbers, though that lack of production outside Colorado surely played a role in limiting him to a minor league contract.

Aside from a few scattered starts at shortstop between 2019-21, Rodgers has been a full-time second baseman. He won a Gold Glove in 2022 behind a massive +22 grade from Defensive Runs Saved. That’s an extreme outlier compared to the rest of his career. Rodgers has received slightly below-average grades from DRS in his other three full seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric has put him slightly below par as well.

A second base-only profile is a difficult one to carry off the bench. Teams tend to prioritize defensive flexibility from their backup infielders. Rodgers came up as a shortstop prospect and played a little bit of third base in the minors. He doesn’t have any professional outfield experience.

Houston has Mauricio Dubón and backup catcher Victor Caratini locked into two of their four bench spots. Jon Singleton will probably keep his role as a left-handed bench bat. That’d leave one job up for grabs among out-of-options outfielder Taylor Trammell, righty-hitting corner bat Zach Dezenzo, and non-roster invitees like Rodgers, Luis Guillorme, and Zack Short. If Rodgers makes the team, he’d likely draw into the lineup on days when the Astros use Jose Altuve in left field. Houston reportedly still intends to get Altuve some outfield work despite Alex Bregman’s departure.

Red Sox Sign Alex Bregman To Three-Year Deal

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TODAY: The Red Sox officially announced Bregman’s deal.  To create roster space, Patrick Sandoval was moved to the 60-day injured list.  Sandoval underwent an internal brace procedure on his left UCL last June, so he was already expected to be out of action until the second half of the 2025 season.  Speier also provided some added details on the contract’s structure, writing that $20MM will be deferred in each of the three seasons.  Bregman will begin receiving these deferred payments in 10 years’ time.

Feb. 13: The deferred money in the contract knocks the net present value of Bregman’s three-year deal into the $90MM range, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports. Per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Chris Cotillo of MassLive, the AAV will be calculated as $31.7MM for CBT purposes. Speier adds that there’s a $5MM signing bonus, followed by a $35MM salary in 2025, then $40MM salaries in the final two seasons.

Feb. 12: The Red Sox are reportedly in agreement with Alex Bregman on a three-year, $120MM deal. The Boras Corporation client receives massive $40MM salaries in each season, though an unreported amount of that money is deferred. Bregman can opt out after each of the first two seasons. The team has yet to officially announce the signing.

Boston gets the best remaining free agent by offering a massive annual sum. Bregman reportedly had a standing six-year offer valued at $156MM from the Astros for most of the offseason. The Tigers reportedly put forth a six-year, $171.5MM proposal, while the Cubs offered a $120MM guarantee over a four-year term. As of last month, Bregman remained committed to a long-term deal. The Sox’s willingness to offer one of the biggest AAVs in league history changed the calculus.

It marks the end of an illustrious tenure in Houston. The second overall pick in the 2015 draft, Bregman was in the majors within a year of coming out of LSU. He immediately locked down third base. He hit .284/.352/.475 over his first full big league campaign, helping the Astros to their first World Series title in 2017. He was one of the top handful of players in baseball over the next two seasons. Bregman secured consecutive top five finishes in AL MVP balloting while combining for a .291/.409/.561 slash with more walks than strikeouts between 2018-19.

Bregman, 31 in March, successively hit 31 and 41 home runs over that stretch. His power production has ticked down since the ’19 campaign, which was the most homer-heavy season in league history. Bregman has hit between 23 and 26 homers in each of the past three seasons. He’d continued to post excellent on-base numbers up through 2023, though his OBP dropped last year as his walks plummeted.

The two-time All-Star hit .260/.315/.453 across 634 trips to the plate in 2024. He had by far his lowest on-base percentage since his half-season as a rookie nearly a decade ago. That was almost entirely because of a drop in free passes. Bregman walked in 6.9% of his plate appearances, nearly halving his typical 12-13% rates. He remained incredibly difficult to punch out (13.6% strikeout rate) and narrowly established a new career high with a 40.1% hard contact percentage.

Bregman started the season very slowly. He hit .216/.283/.294 with only one home run through the end of April. While his power started to rebound in May, he reached base at a meager .276 clip that month. He entered June with a .219/.280/.372 slash line that was beginning to raise questions about his earning power. He put those to rest with a fantastic finish to the season. Bregman hit .284/.337/.500 with 20 doubles and 19 home runs across his final 398 plate appearances. While the walks remained down, he managed much better batted ball results in the second half.

Over eight-plus seasons with the Astros, Bregman hit .272/.366/.483 with 191 home runs. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued his Houston tenure around 40 wins above replacement. He won a Silver Slugger and was MVP runner-up in 2019 and won his first career Gold Glove last season. He has been an instrumental piece of Houston’s sustained postseason success and World Series wins in 2017 and ’23. His swing is perfectly suited for the short left field at Houston’s home park. Bregman certainly hasn’t been a product of the Crawford Boxes, though. He has been essentially the same hitter on the road (.275/.362/.489) and at home (.270/.369/.476).

Bregman will have a similar home setup with the Green Monster at Fenway. He’ll reunite with Sox manager Alex Cora, who was Houston’s bench coach in 2017. While the Sox’s front office had trepidation about adding another long-term infield commitment alongside Rafael Devers and Trevor Story, they were willing to pay handsomely in the short term.

Boston had roughly $210MM in luxury tax commitments going into this evening, as calculated by RosterResource. A $40MM average annual value for Bregman would push that close to $250MM. The actual AAV won’t be quite so high, as the deferrals will drop the net present value to an extent. It’s likely that the Sox will still end up beyond the $241MM luxury tax threshold. They didn’t pay the CBT last season, so they’d only owe a 20% tax on spending between $241MM and $261MM. Even a true $40MM AAV for Bregman would only come with a $1.8MM tax hit for the Sox.

It’s the culmination of an exciting offseason for chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and his staff. The Sox opened the winter looking to add upside in their rotation. They eschewed long-term pitching investments, instead acquiring Garrett Crochet for four prospects while bringing in Walker Buehler on a one-year, $21.05MM deal. Boston signed Patrick Sandoval to a two-year contract midway through his rehab from Tommy John surgery and made a pair of one-year pickups in the bullpen (Aroldis Chapman, Justin Wilson).

Adding a right-handed bat was the one offseason goal that the Sox had not accomplished. While an outfielder may have been a cleaner roster fit, Bregman’s willingness to move off his longtime position makes this workable. The Sox intend to play him at second base, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. That made him a better fit than Nolan Arenado, who has been connected to the Sox in trade rumors for much of the winter.

Devers has been vocal about preferring to stick at third base. Bregman is a superior defender at the hot corner, but he should be athletic enough to move to the keystone for at least one season. He’d likely have spent most of his career in the middle infield had he not broken in with a team that had a Jose Altuve/Carlos Correa pairing.

That blocks the path to playing time for top prospect Kristian Campbell in the short term. The 22-year-old had a monster minor league season (.330/.439/.558 between three levels) to put himself in consideration for the second base job. Campbell seems likelier to begin the year in Triple-A Worcester now. He has played both middle infield positions and all three outfield spots in the minors, though, so the Sox should be able to find playing time for him somewhere as injuries arise throughout the year.

Campbell’s presence is probably a big reason the Red Sox kept this to a short-term commitment. Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe reports that Boston wasn’t interested in going past three guaranteed years. The tradeoff involves one of the largest per-year commitments in MLB history. The pre-deferral $40MM AAV is tied for the sixth-largest ever. It’s the second-biggest of this winter behind Juan Soto’s $51MM AAV and ties the Aaron Judge deal for third in history among position players (trailing Shohei Ohtani and Soto).

Bregman was the final unsigned free agent who had declined a qualifying offer. Boston surrenders their second-round pick (54th overall) in the upcoming draft, as well as $500K from their international signing bonus pool in 2026. They’re getting a compensatory pick about 20 spots later with Nick Pivetta signing with San Diego, so the draft capital comes out relatively close to a wash. As luxury tax payors, the Astros get the lowest compensation pick for Bregman’s departure — a selection after the fourth round, which lands around 137th overall.

Chandler Rome of The Athletic first reported that Bregman was signing with the Red Sox on a three-year, $120MM deal. Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the presence of deferrals. Ari Alexander of Houston’s KPRC-2 had the even salary structure. Image courtesy of Imagn.

Astros Notes: Altuve, Framber, Roster Moves

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The door for an Alex Bregman reunion in Houston closed this week when the former No. 2 overall pick agreed to an opt-out laden three-year deal in Boston. However, the notion of Jose Altuve playing some left field — a concept first floated when the Astros reengaged with Bregman late in the offseason — remains in play even with Bregman headed to the Red Sox. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that even without Bregman, there are plans for Altuve to get some work in left field in at least a part-time capacity.

At this point, it’s not exactly a surprising development. Even as the Astros signaled that a reunion with Bregman was a longshot last week, both general manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada spoke on record with the team’s beat about the possibility of Altuve getting some work in left field this year. Espada said on Feb. 4 that Altuve had been working out in the outfield for several weeks, and that while he’s still taking his usual reps at second base, the left field experiment is something the team is indeed considering. Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle and Chandler Rome of The Athletic both touched on the possibility during spring previews for the team earlier this week.

The reasoning behind the concept is fairly straightforward. After years of rating as a high quality defender at second base, including a Gold Glove win in 2015, Altuve has seen his defensive grades plummet in recent seasons. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him at -13 or worse in each of the past three seasons. Statcast’s Outs Above Average isn’t nearly so bearish on that three-year period but does agree that Altuve has been a negative since 2023, including a grisly -8 mark in 2024.

Altuve’s decline with the glove is particularly problematic when the Astros send Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown to the mound. Valdez’s 60.6% ground-ball rate was the highest in MLB among all qualified starters. Brown isn’t quite so pronounced, but once he incorporated a sinker into his repertoire in mid-May, he posted a 50% grounder rate the rest of the way. Speculatively speaking, if the Astros want to get Altuve some occasional work in the outfield, doing so on days when Brown and especially Valdez take the bump would be prudent. That’s made all the more true by the presence of Mauricio Dubon on the bench. The Astros’ utilityman is a quality defender at multiple spots, but none more so than second base; in 1154 innings there, he’s been credited with 12 DRS and 8 OAA.

Espada said last week that the Astros are aiming to significantly reduce Yordan Alvarez’s time in the outfield after he played 53 games in left last season. Moving Altuve there on a part-time basis could be one way to achieve that goal. If Altuve looks comfortable enough there, it’ll presumably remain an option beyond the current season. He’s entering the first season of a five-year, $125MM extension inked just over one year ago. He’ll earn $30MM each year from 2025-27 before taking home $10MM in both 2028 and 2029. (The contract also contained a $15MM signing bonus.)

That’s one of just two extensions the Astros have worked out since Dana Brown was named the team’s general manager two years ago. Brown has spoken frequently about his desire to get long-term deals with core players hammered out, but Altuve and Cristian Javier are the only two thus far to put pen to paper.

Time will tell whether this spring might bring some additional long-term arrangements, but for the second straight season the ’Stros find themselves with a key player on the cusp of reaching the market. Valdez, set to earn $18MM in 2025, will be a free agent at season’s end. To this point, the left-hander says the team has not yet approached him about signing a long-term deal (link via Kawahara). The 31-year-old southpaw said he’s open to discussing a long-term deal to keep him in Houston but is also ready to take on free agency if the Astros don’t make an overture or if the two sides can’t come to a deal.

Valdez will hit free agency ahead of his age-32 season, which is a year or two later than most top starters. That might cap his earning power to an extent. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Zack Greinke is the only free agent pitcher in the past decade to land a deal of six or more years beginning in his age-32 season. Blake Snell and Jacob deGrom are the only others to secure guarantees of at least five years. A big enough season could put Valdez in line for five years, but even if he’s capped at four, he’d still have a real chance at a $100MM+ contract; there have been ten pitchers in that same time/age bracket who’ve commanded annual salaries of $25MM or more.

Over the past four seasons, Valdez has emerged as a bona fide top-end starter. He’s pitched 710 1/3 innings in that time, logging a combined 3.08 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and enormous 62.4% ground-ball rate. Since 2022, Valdez ranks fifth in the majors in innings pitched despite having fewer starts made than any other pitcher in the top 10. That’s a testament to his ability to work deep into games. He’s averaged better than 6 1/3 innings per appearance in those three years — a rare feat in today’s era of avoiding three trips through the order and prioritizing impactful bullpen arms.

At this point, an extension (or multiple extensions) might be all that’s left in terms of major additions. Asked this week about the potential for further additions to the roster, Brown noted that he’s always looking for more pitching but downplayed the possibility of anything coming together (link via Kawahara). “…Right now, our roster’s pretty good,” Brown added. “I think we’re pretty much in shape to be in position to win this division.”

Tigers Made Six-Year Offer To Bregman

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Alex Bregman is headed to Boston on a three-year deal that comes with a massive $40MM average annual value (albeit with deferrals). The two-time All-Star was also known to have multiple six-year offers on the table, one of which was from the Astros.

The Tigers also proposed a six-year offer, as first reported by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. Petzold initially reported that Detroit’s offer was for narrowly above $170MM and included an opt-out clause after the second season. It had some amount of deferred money. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale specified it as a $171.5MM offer.

Detroit’s offer came with an approximate $28.58MM average annual value, before accounting for deferrals. Bregman obviously fared much better on an annual basis on the agreement with Boston. It seems as if Detroit offered the highest overall guarantee. The Astros had a six-year, $156MM offer on the table for most of the winter. While they reportedly bumped that towards the end of the process, they didn’t seem optimistic about getting a deal done.

Indeed, it doesn’t seem that Houston was even in the running by the end. Nightengale reports that the Cubs, Tigers and Red Sox were the finalists. As with Boston, Chicago only seemed interested on a short-term deal. However, they weren’t willing to match the Sox’s offer on an annual basis. Nightengale reports that the Cubs proposed a four-year, $120MM deal. According to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, that would have included opt-outs after the second and third seasons.

The Tigers and Cubs would each have kept Bregman at his traditional third base position. They’re likely to turn the hot corner to young players with top prospect pedigree but little to no MLB experience (Jace Jung and Matt Shaw, respectively). Bregman is ticketed for second base work in Boston, where Rafael Devers will stick at the hot corner.

Astros To Sign Luis Guillorme To Minor League Deal

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The Astros and infielder Luis Guillorme have agreed to a minor league deal, reports Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. The MVP Sports Group client also gets an invite to big league camp, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic.

Guillorme, 30, is a glove-first utility guy. He was able to produce offense around league average in the 2020 to 2022 seasons, which made him a useful player for the Mets. Unfortunately, his bat fell off in 2023, so the Mets non-tendered him.

That sent him into journeyman mode last year. He started the season with Atlanta and eventually bounced to the Angels and Diamondbacks. He produced a line of .205/.301/.273 between those three clubs, his second straight poor season at the plate. His combined line over 2023 and 2024 was .213/.296/.295 for a wRC+ of 68, indicating he was 32% below league average.

As mentioned, he was better before that. He slashed .278/.367/.344 over the three previous seasons, leading to a 107 wRC+. He didn’t provide much pop, with just three home runs in 559 plate appearances, but he walked at a 12% rate and only struck out 15.4% of the time. When combined with his glovework, FanGraphs credited him with 3.1 wins above replacement in 201 games over that three-year period.

Defensively, Guillorme has 1,339 1/3 innings at second base, 604 at third and 229 1/3 innings at shortstop. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average have given him a grade of +7 at the keystone in his career, while his work at the other two spots has been considered close to average.

The Astros have a question mark at second base for the first time in years. Jose Altuve has had that position locked down since he debuted in the summer of 2011. He’s never been a great defender and the metrics have soured on him further recently. Since he’ll turn 35 years old in May, the club is reportedly considering a move to left field for Altuve.

Those reports originally surfaced in connection with rumors that they were still considering re-signing Alex Bregman, which would push Isaac Paredes from third to second. However, it has since become clear that Altuve could be moving to left field with or without Bregman involved. If Bregman signs elsewhere and Altuve ends up on the grass, the club will need solutions at second base.

Mauricio Dubón is on the roster but would ideally be deployed in a super utility role, playing infield and outfield. Shay Whitcomb and Zach Dezenzo are on the 40-man but neither has more than 20 games of MLB experience, and Dezenzo is more of a corner infielder regardless. The Astros signed Zack Short to a minor league deal last month for some extra non-roster depth and now Guillorme gives them another candidate to look at in camp.

The fact that Guillorme hits from the left side probably helps as well, since that has been a focus of the club this offseason. Yordan Alvarez is the only lefty hitter that seems locked into an everyday role at this point. Ben Gamel was signed as a possible outfield addition, though his deal isn’t fully guaranteed and he could be squeezed out if Altuve ends up in left. Guys like Jon Singleton and Taylor Trammell are also lefty swingers who could be on the bench, with Guillorme possibly joining them.

Tyler Beede Holds Showcase For Interested Teams

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Right-hander Tyler Beede threw for teams held a pro day for interested teams on Friday, per a report from Ari Alexander of KPRC2. Alexander adds that Beede’s fastball was in the range of 93-95mph and that the Astros and Royals both were represented at the righty’s showcase.

Beede, 32 in May, was selected in the first round of the MLB draft twice: first out of High School by the Blue Jays in 2011, then by the Giants out of Vanderbilt. He made his big league debut with San Francisco back in 2018 with a two-game cup of coffee before getting his first significant look with the club in 2019. Things did not go especially well for Beede that year, as he struggled to a 5.08 ERA (82 ERA+) with a nearly identical 5.03 FIP in 117 innings of work split between 22 starts and a pair of bullpen outings.

Tommy John surgery wiped out Beede’s 2020 season and the majority of his 2021 campaign as well, leaving him to record just one inning of work in the majors that year. Once he properly returned to the big leagues in 2022, Beede made just six appearances with the Giants before he was designated for assignment by the club. The right-hander eventually landed in Pittsburgh as a long reliever and swingman, though he struggled to a 5.23 ERA and 4.89 FIP in 51 2/3 innings of work for the club. That performance wasn’t enough to earn him a spot on the 2023 Pirates, but he did receive some overseas interest and wound up signing with the Yomiuri Giants in Nippon Professional Baseball for the 2023 season.

Beede looked solid in Japan with a 3.99 ERA in 49 2/3 innings of work, albeit while striking out just 16.4% of opponents. That solid performance overseas was enough to earn him another shot stateside, and he signed on with the Guardians on a minor league deal in January of last year. Beede was impressive enough to make the club’s Opening Day roster last year, but he struggled out of the gate and posted an ugly 8.36 ERA in 14 innings of work. While his 26.5% strikeout rate in that time was a strong one, lackluster control held him back as he walked 13.2% of his opponents.

It seems unlikely that a club would offer Beede more than a minor league deal given his previous struggles at the big league level, but the former first-round pick’s previous success in Japan and solid strikeout rate with the Guardians last year are both potentially interesting data points for clubs to consider. Given the constant need for pitching depth in the modern game, it would hardly be a surprise if a club took a chance on a player like Beede who’s comfortable pitching both in the rotation and in multi-inning relief as needed. Given that the Astros figure to start the season with four starting pitchers on the injured list, a depth addition like Beede who could help hold down the fort while the club’s other arms get healthy could make some sense in Houston, while Beede would likely join a number of potential starting and long relief options fighting for a roster spot in Kansas City this spring.

Astros Have Reportedly Increased Offer To Bregman, Deal Still Seen As Unlikely

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Of MLBTR’s top 20 free agents, Alex Bregman is the only one who remains unsigned. The star third baseman is reportedly sitting on multiple six-year offers but hasn’t found a price to his liking.

One of those is from the incumbent Astros. Houston has reportedly had a standing six-year, $156MM offer for much of the winter. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Astros have bumped that number higher, though specifics on the new proposal aren’t clear. In any case, it doesn’t seem that it was a dramatic jump. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reports that Houston’s increased offer is still unlikely to result in a deal.

The Tigers are still pursuing Bregman after agreeing to a two-year deal with Jack Flaherty over the weekend. The Blue Jays have an opening at third base. The Red Sox have shown interest, though Alex Speier of the Boston Globe has suggested they were reluctant to go beyond four years. The Sox have stayed in contact with the Cardinals regarding Nolan Arenado as well. MLB.com’s John Denton writes that Boston would “prefer” to sign Bregman over an Arenado trade, though that’s difficult to envision unless they push the length beyond their comfort zone.

While players like Flaherty and Pete Alonso have moved to short-term deals to conclude extended free agent stays, Bregman still seems committed to a longer contract. Agent Scott Boras said as much last month. Heyman writes that Bregman expects to sign for at least six years, though he has received offers on shorter terms.

The Astros dipped below the luxury tax threshold when they traded Ryan Pressly to the Cubs, offloading $8.5MM of his $14MM salary. RosterResource estimates their tax number around $237MM, about $4MM below the base threshold. They’d need to go well beyond the tax line to sign Bregman but otherwise prefer to stay under the $241MM marker. If they don’t re-sign Bregman, they’ll have Isaac Paredes at third base. That’d likely leave Jose Altuve as the primary second baseman with a left field mix that could occasionally feature Altuve alongside Mauricio Dubón, Ben Gamel and Zach Dezenzo.

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