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Rangers Among Clubs With Interest In Yandy Díaz

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Rays infielder Yandy Díaz has been on the restricted list for almost a week while attending to an undisclosed personal matter, but the Rays announced that they reinstated him today. They already had three vacancies on their 40-man roster, so this move brings their count to 38. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relayed on X earlier that the club was hopeful of Díaz returning tonight. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last night that the Rangers are interested in adding him to their lineup. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com says on X that the Astros, Mariners and Pirates are possible suitors, though it’s unclear if any of those clubs have engaged with the Rays.

Díaz, now 32, has been a fixture of the Rays for many years. He came to Tampa from Cleveland heading into 2019 as part of the three-team trade and quickly worked his way into being a regular for the Rays. From the start of 2019 to the present, he has drawn walks in 11.6% of his plate appearances while only striking out 14.5% of the time. His .288/.375/.439 batting line translates to a 133 wRC+, indicating he’s been 33% better than league average overall.

That offense is his best attribute. He’s not a burner on the basepaths and his third base defense was poorly regarded, though he’s been closer to average at first base and has been more or less permanently moved to that side of the diamond. But the 133 wRC+ that Díaz has put up from 2019 to the present is one of the top 15 marks in baseball among qualified hitters, highlighting that such consistently above-average production is hard to find.

Here in 2024, his season-long stats look mildly disappointing, a .273/.329/.396 line and 111 wRC+, but that’s mostly due to a brutal start that he has put behind him. He hit .211/.279/.276 through May 1 but his line of .302/.354/.453 since that time leads to a 134 wRC+, right in line with his overall track record.

The Rays don’t strictly have to move him but their behavior suggests he’s available. Going into 2023, he and the Rays signed an extension that runs through 2025 with a club option for 2026. He’ll make $10MM next year with the option valued at $12MM.

Tampa could certainly keep him but they have shown, both recently and in the past, that they are generally unafraid to move players nearing free agency. Although they are 52-51 this year and just four games out of a playoff spot, they have already traded Aaron Civale, Phil Maton and Randy Arozarena in recent weeks.

Some recent reporting suggested the Rays were more likely to trade arbitrations players than those signed to long-term deals, but that contradicts their past behavior. Players like Evan Longoria, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot have all signed extensions and then been traded before those contracts ended, so there’s no real reason to believe the Rays won’t be open to trade offers on Díaz.

Doing so wouldn’t even be a signal that the club is giving up on 2024, as players like Isaac Paredes and Curtis Mead could fill in at first base. Jonathan Aranda is currently hurt but could be in the mix later. Infielders like Junior Caminero, Austin Shenton and Osleivis Basabe could be called up to fill in elsewhere around the infield. In the long term, Xavier Isaac is a first baseman and considered one of the top 50 prospects in the league, though he’s yet to reach Double-A.

For the Rangers, Rosenthal relays that they are looking for “either a left-handed hitting outfielder/DH or a platoon-neutral right-handed hitter.” Díaz is better against lefties but isn’t a liability without the platoon advantage. He has a 148 wRC+ against southpaws in his career and a 121 wRC+ against righties. It’s a far wider split of 151 and 99 this year, though in a much smaller sample size.

Texas hitters have a collective line of .237/.309/.378 against right-handed pitching, with that line leading to a 93 wRC+, putting them ahead of just seven clubs in that split. They have Nathaniel Lowe at first base but don’t really have a regular designated hitter and should be able to fit both him and Díaz into the same lineup.

The Rays and Mariners already lined up on one deal, sending the aforementioned Arozarena to Seattle as the M’s look for more offense. Díaz could further augment their lineup, especially with the struggling Ty France have been recently designated for assignment and leaving an opening at first base. They have plugged Tyler Locklear into that spot but he has only 40 major league plate appearances thus far.

The Astros also cut ties with a struggling first baseman, releasing José Abreu earlier this year. They have mostly used Jon Singleton to fill that hole but he’s hitting just .231/.319/.343 this year for a 93 wRC+.

The Pirates have a bit less of a dire need as they held onto their struggling first baseman and were rewarded with a bounceback. Rowdy Tellez was hitting .177/.239/.223 through the end of May but has a line of .328/.364/.588 since the calendar flipped to June. His season-long line is still subpar thanks to that early slump but the Pirates probably feel less inclined to replaced Tellez on the heels of his hot streak this summer. They have Andrew McCutchen in the designated hitter spot most days, which makes the lineup fit a bit less clean unless they plan on moving on from Tellez, who is a free agent at season’s end.

Both the Astros and Rangers are set to pay the competitive balance tax at season’s end, so they may have to consider the taxes involved in taking on the Díaz contract. The Astros are set to be a first-time payor and have a base rate of 20% but RosterResource has their CBT number at $256MM. Crossing over the $257MM second tier would increase their tax rate to 32% for spending beyond that line. Recent reporting suggested they are trying to move Rafael Montero’s contract to lessen their tax burden but doing so will be difficult given his poor results of late. RosterResource has the Rangers at $249MM but they are set to be a second-time payor and have a base tax rate of 30%.

Astros Interested In Erick Fedde, Jameson Taillon

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The Astros are prioritizing starting pitching before Tuesday’s deadline. They seem to be casting a wide net in their pursuit of at least a mid-rotation arm. This morning, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times listed the Astros among the teams in on Rays right-hander Zach Eflin. Eflin is one of many arms on their radar.

Russell Dorsey of Yahoo! Sports reports that the Astros and Cardinals are among 10 teams in contact with the White Sox about Erick Fedde. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported the Cards’ interest in Fedde over the weekend. Chandler Rome, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of the Athletic report that the Astros are also among the teams in the mix for Cubs starter Jameson Taillon, a Houston-area native.

Both pitchers have performed like #3 caliber starters this season. Fedde would command the more significant prospect package because of his affordability. A former first-round pick of the Nationals, Fedde never emerged as more than a back-end arm in Washington. He tweaked his pitch mix after signing with the KBO’s NC Dinos last season. After dominating en route to the KBO MVP award, he returned stateside on a two-year, $15MM free agent deal with the White Sox.

It’s the most successful move of Chris Getz’s general manager tenure to date. Fedde’s stuff has played in this look against big league hitters. He carries a 2.98 earned run average across 20 starts. Fedde is averaging nearly six innings per appearance and hasn’t had any difficulty turning a lineup over three times. His 21.6% strikeout rate is right around league average, while his 6.6% walk percentage is strong. Fedde doesn’t have the swing-and-miss stuff of teammate Garrett Crochet, but he has been a very productive source of above-average innings.

As something of a buy-low signing, Fedde is plenty affordable. He’s playing this season on a $7.5MM salary and will make a matching amount in 2025. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Sox are telling interested teams they’re willing to hang onto Fedde into next season if clubs don’t overwhelm them with a trade package. It’d nevertheless be a huge surprise if the 31-year-old is still in a White Sox uniform by Wednesday. There’s no realistic path for the Sox back to contention by next season and little chance that Fedde’s trade value will be higher than it is now — when he’s pitching at a career-best level and comes with a year and a half of cheap control.

Taillon’s production has been very similar. The 32-year-old righty has a 2.96 ERA over 100 1/3 frames. He’s striking out 19.1% of batters faced against a minuscule 5.1% walk rate. It’s a nice rebound after a home run spike led Taillon to allow nearly five earned runs per nine during his first season in Chicago. Taillon’s average fastball speed has dropped a tick to a career-low 92.5 MPH. That’s somewhat alarming but hasn’t prevented him from performing well this year.

Fedde is the more appealing trade chip based largely on the differences in their contracts. Taillon signed with the Cubs on a four-year, $68MM deal over the 2022-23 offseason. He’s playing on an $18MM salary and due a matching annual sum from 2025-26. While Fedde’s contract is well below what he’d get on the open market, Taillon’s is closer to neutral. If the Cubs were primarily concerned about offloading the latter half of that deal, they wouldn’t get a huge prospect return.

Houston has stormed back to overtake a reeling Mariners team atop the American League West. They’ve put themselves in position to buy — validating a front office that consistently maintained they’d do so — and now need to fortify the rotation. Houston is giving starts to rookies Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss without much success.

They’re looking to move to a six-man rotation to lighten the stress on the rookies behind Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco. Houston is hopeful of getting Justin Verlander and Luis Garcia back from injury after the deadline, but neither has had a linear recovery process. Cristian Javier and José Urquidy are down for the season, while Lance McCullers Jr. has hit repeated snags as he rehabs a flexor injury. If everyone’s healthy, acquiring another starter could push one or both of Arrighetti and Bloss out of the rotation.

The Astros don’t have a ton of assets to leverage in trade. Aggressive trades, picking at the back of the draft, and the fallout from the sign-stealing punishment have thinned the farm system. Outfielder Jacob Melton is the only Houston player on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospect list, and the organizational depth is also lacking.

That’s not to say they can’t add rotation help. Hypothetically, Melton would be a compelling headliner in a Fedde package. Young big leaguers like Bloss, Arrighetti or outfielder Joey Loperfido are interesting potential secondary pieces. Houston isn’t working with the same prospect stockpile as are a lot of other teams in the market for rotation help, though.

One way to compensate for the mediocre farm system would be to take on salary. That’s particularly true with a player like Taillon. Yet Houston is already at an organizational high in terms of player spending. They’re going to pay the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history.

RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $256MM. Any noteworthy deadline pickup is going to push them past the $257MM mark for the second tier of penalization. That’s not much of an impediment on its own, but it involves a 32% tax on further spending. Houston is already paying a 20% fee on their first $20MM above the $237MM base threshold. It’s not clear how much further owner Jim Crane is content to stretch.

To that end, The Athletic writes that the Astros are trying to offload Rafael Montero in trade packages. Houston re-signed Montero to a three-year, $34.5MM deal early in the 2022-23 offseason. (That came while Crane was playing an outsized role in baseball operations between the firing of previous GM James Click and before Houston tabbed Dana Brown as general manager.) It has proven a very poor decision.

Montero was tagged for a 5.08 ERA across 67 1/3 innings a year ago. While this season’s 4.58 mark is a bit more respectable, Montero’s strikeout rate has plummeted to 14.6%. Montero has given up 12 runs over 13 2/3 innings since the start of June. He has walked nine batters and surrendered four home runs with only eight strikeouts in that time. Manager Joe Espada has had little choice but to relegate the veteran reliever to low-leverage work.

Clearly, Montero’s contract is well underwater. He’s playing on $11.5MM salaries this year and next. Other teams aren’t going to have any interest in taking any portion of that unless the Astros take back an undesirable deal or add to the prospect capital they’re putting in the offer.

Astros, Braves, Cardinals Reportedly Interested In Zach Eflin

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The Rays have been open to trading from their rotation this year and could do so again, with right-hander Zach Eflin one of the possible candidates. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Astros, Braves and Cardinals are “among the teams expected to have strong interest” in the righty.

The Rays aren’t fully in the seller camp as they are currently 51-51 and just 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. However, their rotation health has improved as the season has gone along and given them a relative surplus. That has allowed them to explore deals that either address another area of the roster, bolster the prospect depth, save some money or some combination of those goals.

Each of Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen began the season recovering from past arm surgeries. The Rays had a rotation of Eflin, Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell and Aaron Civale for most of this year. Once they were ready to put Baz back into the rotation, they flipped Civale to the Brewers for a prospect and called up Baz.

A similar trade could make sense in the coming days. Pepiot is currently on the injured list with a knee infection but isn’t expected to be out for too long, while the Rays have Springs and Rasmussen both currently on rehab assignments. It’s therefore possible that they could trade a pitcher or two and still go through the stretch run with a healthy rotation. They have Tyler Alexander and Jacob Lopez around as depth and then Shane McClanahan should be back in the mix next year, after he recovers from his own elbow surgery.

Most of the pitchers in Tampa’s rotation mix are controllable for many years but Eflin and Littell are each slated for free agency after 2025. Eflin is a particularly sensible candidate for the budget-conscious club due to his contract. He signed a three-year, $40MM deal with Tampa going into 2023, with that deal being backloaded. He made $11MM last year and has that salary again here in 2024, with a jump to $18MM next year.

That is vaguely reminiscent of the extension that the Rays signed with Tyler Glasnow. While he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, Glasnow signed a two-year extension with the Rays which was also heavily backloaded. He was paid $5.35MM in 2023, his final arbitration season and a year in which he was expected to return from the surgery. The Rays also gained an extra year of control over him by giving him a $25MM salary for 2024.

He ended up returning in 2023 as expected, tossing 120 innings with a 3.53 earned run average. But before the big salary jump kicked in, he was traded to the Dodgers in a four-player deal that brought back Pepiot.

With Eflin set for a big raise next year and the Rays having plenty of other rotation options, he could be on the move shortly and should have plenty of suitors. He’s been a solid rotation stalwart for several years now, first with the Phillies and then with the Rays since signing his aforementioned deal. Dating back to the start of 2018, he has a 4.01 ERA in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout rate in that time is close to par but he’s limited walks to a tiny rate of 4.9%.

Health has been an issue for Eflin, largely due to knee problems. He was limited to just 181 1/3 innings over 2021 and 2022, his final two years in Philadelphia, but has managed to stay on the mound more in Tampa. He logged 177 2/3 innings over 31 starts last year with a 3.50 ERA. This year, he’s already up to 19 starts and 110 innings with a 4.09 ERA. He had brief stints on the IL both years due to lower back issues but otherwise kept the train on the tracks.

That type of solid performance would have plenty of appeal and the listed teams each make sense as a landing spot. Atlanta lost Spencer Strider to UCL surgery and also saw Max Fried head to the injured list recently, along with depth options like Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep.

Currently, their rotation consists of Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Charlie Morton and Spencer Schwellenbach, with various guys rotating through the back end. Bolstering that group with an external addition or two is plenty logical. Fried could perhaps be back but there’s risk in the current composition. Sale has a lengthy injury history and the club might want to hedge against him getting hurt again, even though he’s stayed healthy this year. López was just returned to a starting role after working as a reliever for a few years and could perhaps run out of gas later in the year. Morton’s gas tank might also be a factor just because he’s now 40 years old. Schwellenbach has been performing well but has just nine career starts in the majors.

The fact that Eflin is under contract for next year is likely appealing to Atlanta as well. Fried and Morton are both impending free agents, with the latter a possibility to consider retiring at season’s end. Strider will still be out of action by the start of 2025 so the on-paper rotation for next year will be Sale, López and a few question marks. Schwellenbach and some of the other young guys could step up and fill that in, but it’s no guarantee, so adding Eflin into the group would make sense.

The competitive balance tax may be a concern, as Atlanta is currently at $273MM, per the calculations of RosterResource. If they cross the third threshold of $277MM, they would not only incur a higher tax rate but their top pick in next year’s draft would also be moved back ten spots. Given where they are, they probably prefer to stay south of that line.

Eflin’s CBT hit is currently $13.33MM, based on the average annual value of his three-year, $40MM deal. However, a player’s CBT hit is recalculated when he is traded. If a deal comes together in the next few days, he would have about a third of this year’s $11MM salary remaining, in the ballpark of $3.67MM. Combined with his $18MM salary next year, that’s $21.67MM over a season and a third, making for a CBT hit of $16.3MM. If Atlanta acquires him for the final two months of the season, they would put a third of that figure on their CBT calculation for this year, or $5.43MM.

Assuming the RR calculations are close to correct, taking on Eflin’s entire contract might be problematic for Atlanta, so they might try to get creative and have Tampa eat a portion of the deal. Next year’s CBT hit is far lower, currently at $185MM, but they will undoubtedly add to that with some offseason moves.

The Astros have also had their share of rotation challenges this year, with Cristian Javier and José Urquidy both requiring Tommy John surgery. Luis Garcia has yet to return from his own TJS operation from last year while Lance McCullers Jr. is still trying to get back from his own elbow procedure. Justin Verlander is also on the shelf with a neck injury.

Their current rotation consists of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss. Brown has recovered from an awful start to the season but each of Blanco, Arrighetti and Bloss is lacking in experience. Blanco only recently moved to the rotation after years of bullpen work while Arrighetti and Bloss are rookies who both have ERAs north of 5.60 so far this year.

Like Atlanta, Houston is set to pay the CBT this year but they have far more wiggle room. Houston’s CBT number is currently at $256MM, per RR. That’s just shy of the $257MM second line but crossing that only comes with a slight bump in tax rate and no draft pick penalties.

The Cardinals have a solid rotation front four consisting of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas. With Steven Matz injured, they have had Andre Pallante holding down the fifth spot lately. Pallante has a decent 3.42 ERA in his nine starts but he has a subpar strikeout rate of 19.8% and a limited track record overall.

Adding Eflin could bolster that group for this year and 2025 as well. Both Gibson and Lynn are on one-year deals and could be free agents this winter. They both have club options on their deals but it’s not a guarantee that the Cardinals would pick either of those up. Unlike Atlanta and Houston, the CBT is not a huge concern in St. Louis. RR currently has the Cards at $215MM, which is $22MM south of the $237MM base threshold.

Astros Among Teams Interested In Isaac Paredes

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The Astros, looking to lengthen their lineup and get more production out of first base, are among the teams with interest in Rays infielder Isaac Paredes, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. As Rome explains, the bottom third of Houston’s lineup has produced a disastrous .254 OBP since Kyle Tucker went on the injured list 40 games ago, shortening the lineup and leaving a lot of pressure on the top of the batting order.

Paredes is a natural fit for the Astros, though between his affordable $3.4MM salary, his three additional years of club control, his defensive versatility and this year’s .250/.352/.445 slash, he’d fit on the majority of contenders around the league. Paredes has been Tampa Bay’s primary third baseman this season, but he has considerable experience at both second base and first base as well, and he’s even played 50 innings of shortstop in the majors. He’s probably not cut out for long-term shortstop work, but Statcast feels he’s been average or better at each of the three other infield spots.

Among the 148 qualified hitters in MLB this season, only one has a higher pull rate than Paredes: Houston’s own Jose Altuve. That pull-happy approach from a righty power bat like Paredes makes the Astros’ Minute Maid Park — and the short left field porch in the Crawford Boxes — a particularly interesting fit. Paredes popped 31 homers last season and has 16 so far in 2024.

The Astros have gotten virtually nothing out of first base this season. Jose Abreu was released in the second season of an ill-fated three-year contract. Jon Singleton has been the primary option since. He’s hitting .230/.321/.345 on the season. That’s seven percent worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+, at a position where above-average offense is typically expected. Singleton also grades as a poor first base defender and poor baserunner.

Swapping Singleton out for Paredes and then pairing him with Tucker’s eventual return could have a transformative impact on the Houston lineup. The benefits of adding Paredes would be further reaching in the long-term, too. Alex Bregman is slated to become a free agent this offseason, and while the Astros figure to be part of his offseason market, he’s hardly a guarantee to re-sign. Keeping Bregman could require a longer and more lucrative contract than the ’Stros have given out to anyone under owner Jim Crane; Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM deal is the longest contract issued under Crane, while Altuve’s 2018 extension that guaranteed him $151MM in new money is the largest guarantee. If Bregman doesn’t stay in Houston, Paredes could shift across the diamond to third base in 2025.

For all the reasons just listed, however, Paredes will be extremely expensive to acquire — at least in terms of prospects/young talent. Any of the Yankees, Dodgers, Mariners and Red Sox (among others) stand as obvious fits and suitors for him. The market will be competitive. And, since Paredes is controllable through the 2027 season and should earn under $10MM next season in arbitration, the Rays likely don’t feel a need to move him. They’ll listen, as they do on all of their players, but it’ll take a genuinely compelling offer to pry three-plus years of one of the game’s most underrated infielders from their grasp.

That said, the Rays have sufficient infield depth to withstand the loss of Paredes. Third baseman Junior Caminero ranks as one of the sport’s top five prospects and is ready for a look in the majors. Caminero’s presence alone doesn’t make Paredes expendable — he could easily move to another infield position or just bounce between multiple slots on a regular basis — but having a ready-made replacement does make it a bit easier to move him than if the cupboard behind him were bare. Other, more expensive veterans on the Rays (e.g. Zach Eflin, Randy Arozarena) seem likelier to move between now and next Tuesday’s deadline, but Paredes should draw heavy interest in his own right and likely could be had with a substantial enough offer.

Astros Select Aledmys Díaz, Designate David Hensley

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The Astros have selected the contract of infielder/outfielder Aledmys Díaz, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic on X. In corresponding moves, they optioned infielder Grae Kessinger and designated infielder David Hensley for assignment.

Díaz, 33, signed a minor league deal with the Astros just over a week ago. He had been with the Athletics since signing a two-year deal with them going into 2023 but struggled essentially from the moment that deal was signed. He hit just .229/.280/.337 with Oakland in 2023 and then spent most of this year on the injured list due to groin and calf injuries. He hit .103/.133/.103 in 30 plate appearances before the A’s moved on.

By releasing him, the A’s remain on the hook for what’s left of his $8MM salary this year. Any other club would only have to pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount subtracted from what the A’s pay. The Astros decided to step in by signing Díaz and sent him to the Complex League, where he hit .333/.313/.400 in four games.

The Astros will undoubtedly be hoping that he can put that performance with the A’s behind him and return to the form he showed in his previous stint in Houston. With the Astros from 2019 to 2022, he slashed .255/.313/.424 for a wRC+ of 102 while lining up at all four infield spots and the outfield corners. If he can get back into that ballpark, he can be a nice multi-positional bench piece for the Astros once again.

Hensley, 28, has been on Houston’s 40-man roster since August of 2022 but has been on optional assignment for most of that time. He has 128 major league plate appearances in 46 games with a line of .177/.273/.274 in those.

He had performed well in the minors prior to getting that roster spot but has tailed off since. He slashed .295/.395/.458 in the minors over 2021 and 2022 for a wRC+ of 124. He struck out 22.8% of the time but drew walks at a strong clip of 13.9%. However, a .380 batting average on balls in play suggested that performance wasn’t quite sustainable.

Over 2023 and 2024, his BABIP corrected to a more normal level of .308 and his line has dropped to .228/.358/.367. His walk rate increased to 16.6% in the latter stretch but he’s also been punched out 26.3% of the time.

The Astros will now have a week to trade Hensley or pass him through waivers. Since the waiver process takes 48 hours, they have five days to explore any trade possibilities. If any club has interest in Hensley as a depth piece, he can still be optioned for rest of this year and one additional season. He also has less than a year of service time and therefore many years of club control. If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he would stick with the Astros in a non-roster capacity.

GM Dana Brown On Astros’ Starting Pitching Pursuit

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The Astros have a well-known need in the rotation, and general manager Dana Brown, never afraid to speak candidly, was open about his desire to upgrade/deepen the rotation mix in the next eight days in a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (X link, with audio).

“Try go to big and see if there’s a deal that makes sense for the organization,” Brown said of his efforts to add a starter. “If that don’t work, we’ll go down to mid-level and hopefully we can land something there. But it doesn’t hurt to ask. When you go through this, ask and thou shall receive sometimes. We want to try to go big, and if we can’t get the big thing done, we’ll try to go mid-level so we can get through this.”

Brown went on to note that with Luis Garcia and Justin Verlander both on the mend, bringing in a potential deadline acquisition to further bolster the rotation would allow the Astros to work from a six-man rotation “at times” down the stretch. With Garcia returning from Tommy John surgery, Verlander already having gone through a pair of IL stints in 2024, and breakout righty Ronel Blanco likely to reach a new career-high in innings pitched before the end of the month, there’s good reason for the ’Stros to target a six-man group down the stretch.

That six-man group would include Blanco, Verlander, Garcia, Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and a potential deadline pickup. Rookie right-handers Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss would presumably remain on hand as a depth options if needed (although speculatively speaking, either could be a secondary piece in a trade to bring in a more established starter).

The trade market is hardly teeming with “go big” types of starting pitchers, though White Sox ace Garrett Crochet stands as one obviously available name in that regard. Brown and his staff could certainly try to pry Crochet loose from Chicago or make an even longer-shot bid for Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, but Skubal isn’t expected to change hands and the Astros’ farm system isn’t all that well regarded. That’s not a surprise for a team that typically picks near the back of the draft due to strong finishes in the standings and forfeited a pick to sign Josh Hader — but it’s a notable roadblock to getting a “big” deal across the finish line.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the Astros simply don’t have the young talent to pull off a trade for a starting pitcher of note. Outfielder Jacob Melton is widely considered to be among the game’s 100 best prospects, ranking 67th at MLB.com and 68th at Baseball America. He’s ranked 78th at FanGraphs, where the aforementioned Bloss lands in the No. 100 spot on their own leaguewide prospect rankings. Bloss and other young big leaguers like Arrighetti and outfielder/first baseman Joey Loperfido could also hold appeal to other teams. Righty A.J. Blubaugh has pitched well in Triple-A for much of the season. Prospects like outfielder Zach Cole and third baseman Zach Dezenzo are both in Double-A and could be big league options by next year. The Astros organization may not be bursting with elite prospects, but there are some interesting names knocking on the door of the majors.

The Astros are a typically high-payroll club, which also enables them to provide some benefit to potential sellers in the form of taking on guaranteed salary. They’re already sitting on a record-high payroll and are just a few hundred thousand dollars from crossing into the second tier of luxury penalization, per RosterResource. However, they’re also a first-year payor right now after spending the ’23 season under the tax line, and as such, they’d only be jumping from a 20% overage tax to a 32% tax in crossing that line. If the Astros were to tack on another $20MM of luxury obligations, they’d be on the cusp of the third tier, at which point their top pick in the 2025 draft would be pushed back 10 spots, but that’s quite a ways from reality at the moment.

Moreover, it doesn’t sound as though it’ll be a Crochet/Skubal type or bust. “If we can get a mid-level guy and we get Garcia and Verlander back,” said Brown later in that same radio appearance, “that would be massive to this club.”

Astros starters are tied for 16th in the majors with a 4.20 ERA, though that number includes some strong early-season work from righty Cristian Javier, who won’t be back in 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Fellow righty Jose Urquidy was also lost for the season due to UCL surgery, while righty J.P. France had shoulder surgery last month. It’s not clear right now when or whether Lance McCullers Jr. will return this season after a setback in his recovery from flexor surgery.

Brown struggled immensely early in the season but has turned things around since incorporating a sinker into his repertoire (2.55 ERA, 26% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate in 81 1/3 innings). Blanco, who tossed the season’s first no-hitter back on April 1, has been the Astros’ rock in 2024, logging a 2.75 ERA in 114 1/3 innings. Valdez and Verlander have pitched well when healthy but both have been on the IL this season.

Houston sat a whopping 10 games out of first place as recently as June 18, but closed that gap emphatically with a 19-7 run in its past 26 games — including taking two of three against the now formerly division-leading Mariners just this weekend. The Astros and Mariners are now tied for the top spot in the AL West.

Latest On Lance McCullers Jr.

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  • Astros GM Dana Brown provided an update on Lance McCullers Jr. during a pregame radio appearance today (hat tip to Chandler Rome of The Athletic).  McCullers’ rehab from flexor surgery was halted earlier this week due to some soreness in his right arm, and Brown said “we just have to let time heal and we can’t push him.”  A return by September to work as a reliever is a possibility, Brown said, which is itself notable since McCullers has started 127 of his 130 career big league games.  A variety of injuries have cost McCullers the entirety of both the 2019 and 2023 seasons, and limited him to 265 innings over the 2020-22 campaigns.  The exact nature of McCullers’ latest issue isn’t known, but Brown somewhat ominously said that the righty had gotten “his second opinion” about the setback.

Astros Notes: Garcia, Verlander, Tucker

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The Astros are pulling back a bit on right-hander Luis Garcia’s rehab process after he didn’t rebound well follow his most recent start in the minors, manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) on Friday. Kawahara went on to note that Espada emphasized that Garcia had not suffered a setback, although plans for the righty to throw a bullpen has been delayed and there’s no timetable for him to make his next rehab start.

It’s a frustrating turn of events for Houston, as the club’s rotation has been beleaguered by injuries all season. Right-handers Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy and J.P. France are all done for the year after undergoing season-ending surgeries last month, and of the three starters on the IL expected to return this year Garcia appears to be the closest. This latest delay figures to leave the Astros to make the best out of a patchwork rotation featuring Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown, Jake Bloss, and Spencer Arrighetti. Aside from Valdez, only Brown entered the 2024 season with more than a handful of starts at the big league level on his resume and only Blanco has posted an ERA better than league average.

Of course, the return of Garcia would be a welcome one even if the Astros rotation was in better shape. After all, the 27-year-old righty sports a career 3.61 ERA and 3.79 FIP in parts of four seasons in the majors. Garcia had solidly worked his way into the middle of Houston’s rotation prior to the Tommy John surgery that wiped out most of his 2023 campaign, and he figures to pitch key innings for Houston in the second half so long as he can return to action healthy and effective sometime after the All-Star break.

The Astros got more positive injury news regarding the status of right-hander Justin Verlander, who’s been on the IL with a neck issue for the past month. The future Hall of Famer returned to the mound today, however, and while he was initially scheduled for a light bullpen session of just 10 to 15 pitches, MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart reports that he threw a 25-pitch session that included all of his pitches without any issues. That’s a major step forward for the right-hander, and while it’s unclear when the veteran will return to the majors Chandler Rome of The Athletic relayed that he’s expecting to throw another bullpen during the All-Star break.

Injuries have limited Verlander to just ten starts so far this year, and he’s struggled (at least by his own lofty standards) when healthy enough to take the mound with a 3.95 ERA that’s more or less in line with league average and a worrying 4.99 FIP. While his 21.3% strikeout rate and his 7.1% walk rate are both more or less in line with the numbers he posted last year, Verlander’s career-worst 24.8% groundball rate and elevated 9% barrel rate are both cause for concern, and his fastball’s velocity is down half a tick from last year.

Looking toward the positional side of things, outfielder Kyle Tucker provided an update to reporters (including McTaggart) about the shin contusion that’s sidelined him for six weeks now. Tucker told reporters that he’s advanced to throwing on the field and is hoping to return “sometime at the beginning of the second half,” though he didn’t put a specific timetable on his return and cautioned that he’s still feeling some discomfort in his leg.

While the Astros have surged in Tucker’s absence with an excellent 23-11 record since he was placed on the shelf, the club is surely eager to add another star bat back into the lineup alongside Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. Tucker caught fire early in the season prior to his injury and headed to the injured list with a scorching .266/.395/.584 slash line in 60 games despite a lackluster .245 BABIP. If he can contribute anything even close to that upon his return later this summer, it would be a massive boost to the club as they work to catch a division-leading Mariners club that they trail by just one game entering play today.

Astros Sign Aledmys Diaz To Minor League Deal

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The Astros have signed veteran utility bat Aledmys Diaz to a minor league deal, per a team announcement. Diaz is set to report to the club’s complex in Florida rather than immediately be assigned to a minor league club.

The news is something of a homecoming for Diaz, as he was a key piece in the Astros’ bench mix between the club’s acquisition of him from the Blue Jays during the 2018-19 offseason until he elected free agency following the 2022 season. In his four years with the club, Diaz hit a solid .255/.313/.425 (102 wRC+) while splitting time between all four infield spots as well as the outfield corners. After winning the World Series with Houston in 2022, Diaz hit the open market and signed on with the A’s in a two-year guarantee for a club that has given out multi-year deals in free agency increasingly sparingly throughout their rebuild.

That contract did not go as anyone had hoped. Diaz took a major step back as a semi-regular player in Oakland last year, slashing just .229/.280/.337 with a wRC+ of 72 in 109 games, his most in a season since his time with the Blue Jays half a decade earlier. While his versatility still offered some value for the A’s, the power stroke he flashed in Houston that allowed him to slug 12 homers in 327 trips to the plate during the 2022 season evaporated upon his arrival in Oakland as he slugged just three homers in 2023.

That step back in the power department didn’t leave much hope for the 32-year-old to turn things around and once again become a slightly above average bat with the A’s this year, and his performance in 2024 proved to be nothing short of disastrous. Diaz missed the first two months of the season due to groin and calf issues this year and, upon being activated, appeared in just 12 games for Oakland. In that time, Diaz recorded just three hits (all singles) and walked only once across 30 trips to the plate. That paltry .103/.133/.103 slash line was good for a wRC+ of -31 and led the A’s to release him last week, ending his tenure in Oakland three months early.

For the Astros, the return of Diaz represents a possible depth option for the club’s bench in the event of a rash of injuries. Mauricio Dubon has largely stepped into the role Diaz previously filled on the Houston bench quite admirably, with a .279/.308/.404 slash line and a 97 wRC+ in 744 trips to the plate over the past two seasons. While Dubon has clearly established himself as the club’s preferred utility infielder and it’s even likely that 40-man infielders Jacob Amaya and David Hensley are also above Diaz on the club’s hierarchy, the deal still offers Diaz the opportunity to attempt to work through his struggles in a familiar organization and re-establish himself as a worthwhile depth option for big league clubs headed into free agency this winter.

Astros Notes: McCullers, Bloss, Verlander

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Lance McCullers Jr.’s return from last year’s flexor surgery hit a snag. Manager Joe Espada told reporters this afternoon the team was pausing the righty’s throwing program after he experienced arm soreness coming out of his recent bullpen sessions (link via Chandler Rome of the Athletic). The team didn’t provide much detail, as Espada noted only that McCullers won’t throw for a few days “until we sit back down and reevaluate how we’re going to move forward.”

It’s possible this is merely a minor setback and McCullers will be able to resume throwing in the coming days. Still, any mention of arm soreness is going to raise alarm with the pitcher’s injury history. McCullers lost the 2019 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery the previous November. He returned and stayed healthy for most of the 2020-21 campaigns, but he battled forearm discomfort during the ’21 postseason.

McCullers was out into August ’22. He returned to make 11 starts down the stretch and into the playoffs before suffering another arm injury while ramping up during the 2022-23 offseason. That eventually necessitated surgery. McCullers hasn’t pitched in a game since starting Game 3 of the 2022 World Series.

That kind of extended layoff makes it difficult for the Astros to bank too heavily on McCullers contributing down the stretch. Yet the team has pointed to returns from Luis Garcia and McCullers as possible stabilizers for a rotation that is barely hanging on. Garcia is on a rehab stint as he works back from last May’s Tommy John procedure. He could be back around the start of August. Even if all goes well with Garcia, the rotation depth remains perhaps the team’s biggest question.

Houston is operating with four starting pitchers at the moment. Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti are the only healthy starters on the 40-man roster. They should get a fifth arm back this week. Espada suggested that Jake Bloss is likely to return from the 15-day injured list to start on Thursday against the Marlins (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Bloss suffered a shoulder injury during his MLB debut on June 21 and has been shelved for around three weeks.

Getting Bloss back nominally completes the rotation, but the club can’t feel great about relying on a pair of rookies for the final two spots. Arrighetti has had an inconsistent debut campaign and is sitting on a 5.96 ERA across 16 starts. The Astros just drafted Bloss in the third round last summer. He has made two starts above Double-A. Blanco, who has had a fantastic year after securing the fifth starter job in Spring Training, had never topped 88 innings in any minor league or MLB season before this one. He’s up to 103 frames with a 2.53 ERA after firing seven innings of two-run ball tonight.

Blanco’s emergence and Hunter Brown’s midseason turnaround have helped key the Astros’ recent push back into contention for the AL West. They’ll need more sources of reliable innings down the stretch, which will likely come through some combination of injury returnees and trade. Beyond Garcia and McCullers, Justin Verlander has been out since mid-June with neck discomfort. The future Hall of Famer suggested on Tuesday that he’s still unsure precisely when he’ll be ready for game action (link via Kawahara). Unsurprisingly, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman wrote recently that Houston is looking to add at least one starting pitcher from outside the organization before the July 30 deadline.

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