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Astros Seeking Rotation Help, First Base Upgrade

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The Astros’ recent hot streak has positioned Houston as a clear buyer heading into the July 30 trade deadline. At 46-44 (including 13-4 over their past 17 games), they’re two games back of the division-leading Mariners and 3.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. Among their deadline targets, per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, are at least one starting pitcher and an extra bat — ideally a first baseman. Heyman calls D-backs first baseman Christian Walker the Astros’ preferred target, though it’s not yet clear whether Arizona will sell any veterans heading into the deadline.

The 33-year-old Walker would be one of the most impactful bats on the market — if the Diamondbacks ultimately end up selling. That’s far from certain right now. Arizona is all but buried in the NL West, where the Dodgers hold a commanding 7.5-game lead over the second-place Padres and a 10-game lead over the D-backs themselves. The Snakes, however, are only two and a half games behind the Padres for the final National League Wild Card spot. They’re three and a half games back of the Cardinals, who hold the second Wild Card spot at the moment.

If the Diamondbacks were to fall out of the race, it stands to reason that Walker would at least be available. The slugging, slick-fielding first baseman is a clear qualifying offer candidate, so Arizona wouldn’t necessarily be obligated to move him, as Walker could net them a draft pick if he turns down a QO and signs elsewhere. But Walker is hitting .265/.337/.507 with 22 homers this season and carries a stout .253/.332/.491 slash with 91 homers in 1721 plate appearances dating back to Opening Day 2022. He’s won a Gold Glove in each of the past two seasons as well. That type of plus offense and defense would make him one of the most in-demand players on the summer trade market.

That’s especially true for an Astros club that has gotten virtually nothing out of its first basemen this season. Houston already released Jose Abreu midway through a three-year, $58.5MM contract — a move that underscores the team’s urgency to turn things around. Jon Singleton has batted just .243/.339/.366 in 233 plate appearances while playing poor defense. Houston’s need for an alternative option is clear, and the team is clearly reluctant to give outfield prospect Joey Loperfido any time at first base (at least in the majors).

As for the team’s rotation, that’s been an area of need for much of the season — though help could be on the horizon. The ’Stros lost both Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy to UCL surgery earlier this summer. JP France had shoulder surgery recently. They’ve seen both Justin Verlander (twice, including currently) and Framber Valdez require trips to the injured list. The only healthy starters on Houston’s roster at the moment are Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and rookie Spencer Arrighetti. Swingman Shawn Dubin made a start against the Twins recently but was hit hard.

The Astros are hoping to have Verlander back sooner than later, however, and righty Luis Garcia is on a rehab assignment right now as he finishes up his rehab from last May’s Tommy John procedure. Lance McCullers Jr. could join the staff in the season’s second half as well. Still, Houston starters rank 21st in MLB with a 4.37 ERA, and that includes some solid work out of Javier before his UCL injury.

Even if the Astros are planning to get some combination of Verlander, Garcia and McCullers back for the stretch run, it’s possible injuries and workload concerns further impact the situation. Blanco didn’t pitch in 2020, pitched just 45 innings in 2021, 51 innings in 2022 and 125 1/3 frames last year. He’s already at 96 innings pitched. Arrighetti is within 40 innings of the 124 2/3 frames he tossed a year ago. McCullers hasn’t pitched since 2022. Garcia tossed only 27 innings last year before surgery.

There’s good sense to Houston adding some depth and stability, even if it’s not necessarily a top-tier arm who’d slot into a theoretical playoff rotation. Doing so would lessen the reliance on currently injured arms in the season’s second half and safeguard against further injuries.

One factor to consider in any Astros trade scenarios is one of salary. General manager Dana Brown said early in the 2023-24 offseason that he didn’t expect to have much financial flexibility. Houston still spent over the winter, most notably on Josh Hader’s $95MM contract, but that only further raises the question of how much flexibility the team has this summer.

Per RosterResource, Houston is right at the $257MM threshold for the second tier of luxury tax penalization. There’s no major penalty for crossing into tier two — just a hike in the tax rate itself — and it’s unlikely the Astros would add another $20MM and push themselves up to the third tier of penalty (where their top pick in the ’25 draft would be pushed back 10 places). But Houston has only paid the luxury tax twice under owner Jim Crane, and the team has never trotted out a higher payroll than its current 2024 outlay. Time will tell how much Crane is willing to add, but it’s doubtful Brown and his group will be given a proverbial blank check when shopping this month.

Astros Notes: Alvarez, Altuve, Tucker

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Star Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez departing today’s loss against the Twins after getting struck in the leg by a pitch. Manager Joe Espada told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) after the game that Alvarez is “feeling sore” as he nurses the issue, which has been termed a right knee contusion, but that the club has not sent the 27-year-old for any testing.

Alvarez himself spoke to reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) after the game as well, telling them through an interpreter that he was hit on the same spot on his knee a couple of weeks ago and that the inflammation from that previous incident had not yet fully gone away when he was struck this afternoon. Alvarez acknowledged he was in “a lot of pain” following the game but suggested that he and the club would see how he feels tomorrow before making any decisions regarding his status.

It’s the second consecutive day the Astros have lost a key player to a hit by pitch, as star second baseman Jose Altuve was removed from yesterday’s game after getting struck in the wrist by a pitch. Altuve wasn’t in the club’s lineup for today’s game, but Kawahara notes that x-rays on the veteran’s wrist came back negative and that the star expected not to miss much time due to the issue. That may still be the case even after he was absent from today’s lineup, as Espada told reporters (including Kawahara) today that Altuve was available off the bench to pinch hit if necessary today, although youngster Grae Kessinger was the one who ultimately replaced Alvarez at DH.

The fact that Altuve, who has slashed an excellent .310/.360/.466 (136 wRC+) across 86 games this year in his 14th year suiting up for the Astros in the majors, is seemingly poised to avoid the IL is surely a relief for fans in Houston as the club attempts to chase down the Mariners in the AL West. Unfortunately, Alvarez may be even more important to the club’s offense. The slugger has hit at his typical elite level this year, slashing .300/.383/.548 with a 158 wRC+ that ranks ninth in the majors across 371 trips to the plate. For an Astros club that has gotten less offensive output than expected from key pieces like Alex Bregman, Yainer Diaz, and Chas McCormick, the offense both Alvarez and Altuve provide in the lineup is all the more important, and even a brief absence for either player would be troubling.

While two of the club’s star hitters are dealing with injury issues, a third is making progress toward a return from the IL. Espada also told reporters (including McTaggart) today that outfielder Kyle Tucker did some jogging yesterday as he works his way back from a shin contusion that’s kept him on the injured list for the past month. Espada added that Tucker has also been playing catch and has resumed hitting off a pitching machine. Tucker isn’t expected to return to the club until after the All Star break at this point, but the fact that he’s begun doing some light running and basic drills is an encouraging step forward for a player Houston figures to rely on heavily in the second half.

Prior to being placed on the shelf last month, the 27-year-old was in the midst of a career year, even compared to the standards set by his All-Star campaigns in 2022 and ’23. In 60 games this season prior to going on the shelf, Tucker slashed an incredible .266/.395/.584 with a 174 wRC+. While Tucker’s surprisingly low .245 BABIP holds his overall line down slightly, the outfielder was walking (17.6%) more than he struck out (15.6%) and had slugged 19 homers in just 262 trips to the plate prior to his injury. If he can post numbers in a similar vicinity upon his return to action, Tucker will add another key cog to the club’s lineup and surely help shoulder the load that Alvarez and Altuve have taken on in his absence.

AL West Notes: Tucker, Verlander, Bloss, Woo, Jung

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Astros manager Joe Espada offered a disappointing, if not entirely surprising, injury update regarding two of his biggest stars. Speaking to reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) ahead of today’s contest in Toronto, the skipper acknowledged that neither Kyle Tucker nor Justin Verlander is likely to return from the IL before the All-Star break.

Tucker has not played since June 3 as he nurses a right shin contusion he suffered when he fouled a ball off his leg. In mid-June, Espada suggested that Tucker would likely require a minor league rehab assignment. With the All-Star break fast approaching and the outfielder yet to begin any on-field work (per Kawahara), it’s hard to imagine he makes it back before the break. The Astros would surely like to have Tucker back as soon as possible, but they have played surprisingly well in their best hitter’s absence. Making sure that he’s healthy for the stretch run is more important than rushing him back in July.

Meanwhile, Verlander has not pitched since June 9; he is dealing with neck discomfort. He is progressing well, but Espada says the future Hall of Famer has not yet gotten back to throwing off a mound. Once again, the Astros could certainly use the veteran in their injury-plagued rotation ASAP, but rushing him back would be a shortsighted move with so much season left to play.

Another point of interest concerning Verlander: As Kawahara notes, it is now extremely unlikely that his conditional $35MM player option for 2025 will be triggered. Even if the 41-year-old were to return immediately after the All-Star break and pitch once every five games for the rest of the season, he would need to average 6 1/3 innings per start to reach the necessary 140 innings pitched.

Finally, Espada also mentioned that rookie Jake Bloss will make a rehab start this weekend. Barring any setbacks, the young righty could make his next start in Houston. Bloss, 23, is generally considered one of the Astros’ better pitching prospects. He landed on the IL with shoulder discomfort on June 21, the same day that he made his MLB debut.

More injury updates from around the AL West:

  • Rangers manager Bruce Bochy offered reporters an update on Josh Jung, who has been on the IL almost all season. The All-Star third baseman fractured his wrist on a hit-by-pitch on April 1. Jung has recently been nursing a flare-up of discomfort in his injured wrist and has not swung a bat since his last rehab game on June 20 (per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). However, he has no further structural damage. The Rangers are going to shut him down completely for another week, after which they hope he’ll be able to restart his rehab assignment (per Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today). Needless to say, this means Jung will not be ready to return to Arlington before the All-Star break.
  • In more positive news, the Mariners aren’t ready to rule out the possibility that Bryan Woo could return to their rotation ahead of the Midsummer Classic. He threw a successful bullpen session on Wednesday (per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) and will make a rehab start this weekend. If all goes well in that outing, there’s a chance he could make his next start for Seattle. Woo, 24, has pitched exceptionally well in his sophomore season, with a 1.77 ERA in eight starts. Not all of his underlying numbers are quite as eye-catching (4.01 SIERA, 3.96 xFIP), but there’s no doubt the Mariners would like to have the young hurler back as soon as possible to see more of what he’s capable of.

MLBTR Podcast: The Rays Could Deal Starters, Garrett Crochet, James Wood And Free Agent Power Rankings

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

* This podcast was recorded on the evening of July 2, before the Rays traded Aaron Civale to the Brewers.

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • What are the Astros going to do at the deadline? (42:15)
  • The Rangers are terrible but are World Series champions for the first time. Can they sell even if it’s the best thing for the team? (46:50)
  • Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris says the club could buy or sell. What do the final months of the season look like in Detroit? (54:30)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Red Sox Claim Alex Speas From Astros

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The Red Sox have claimed right-hander Alex Speas off waivers from the Astros.  Speas was designated for assignment by Houston last week.

A second-round pick for the Rangers in the 2016 draft, Speas didn’t really start to live up that prospect status until the 2023 season, when he had a 2.86 ERA over 56 2/3 combined innings (28 1/3 frames each) at the Double-A and Triple-A levels.  It was a comeback season for Speas, who missed virtually all of 2019-20 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and he stepped away from baseball entirely in 2022.  Speas’ minor league performance earned him his MLB debut, as he had three appearances and two innings with the Rangers last July.

Texas designated Speas for assignment in late September, and the White Sox quickly snapped him up on waivers.  This started a run of frequent trips to DFA limbo and the waiver wire for Speas, who was designated by Chicago and then dealt to the A’s in early April, and designated again by Oakland at the start of May before Houston made another claim.  This latest stint with the Astros did result in one more big league game for Speas before he was again DFA’ed and now finds himself as a member of the Red Sox organization.

It is easy to see the appeal in Speas, whose fastball sits in the high 90’s and has been known to hit the 100mph threshold.  The tremendous velocity has helped Speas post a 32.73% strikeout rate across his 165 1/3 career innings in the minors, yet his whopping 18.24% walk rate provides an easy answer to why the 26-year-old has yet to gain a solid foothold in the big leagues or even in the upper minors.  Over 21 2/3 combined Triple-A innings this season, Speas has a 10.38 ERA, and bouncing between three different teams provides only a limited excuse considering that Speas has more walks (22) than innings pitched.

The Sox are the latest team to see if they can solve Speas’ control problems, or at least make them passable enough so he can be a viable Major League hurler.  Boston’s pitching development system has been overhauled under new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow with some improved results already showing at the MLB level, and Breslow himself knows a few things about harnessing and managing control issues from his own days as a pitcher.

Astros Outright Blair Henley

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The Astros outrighted right-hander Blair Henley to Triple-A Sugar Land this afternoon, as noted by The Athletic’s Chandler Rome on X. The 27-year-old rookie does not have the requisite service time or previous outright on his resume necessary to reject the assignment, meaning he’ll return to the minor leagues to act as non-roster depth for Houston going forward.

Henley was drafted by the Astros in the seventh-round of the 2019 draft but had his development thrown off course early in his professional tenure. He made just one appearance in an Astros uniform in 2019 before the minor league season was cancelled in 2020, and he returned in 2021 to make just five appearances before undergoing Tommy John surgery. The rehab process after going under the knife caused him to miss not only the remainder of the 2021 campaign but all of 2022, and Henley entered the 2023 season as a 26-year-old in Double-A with just six professional games under his belt.

The righty’s results left something to be desired in that first wire-to-wire professional season, as he surrendered a 5.06 ERA in 106 2/3 innings spread across 25 appearances, including 17 starts. Henley’s 22.3% strikeout rate was decent enough, but an 11.1% walk rate left something to be desired even as he generated groundballs at a strong 51.2% clip. There was some unfortunate luck (including a strand rate of just 64.4%) baked into Henley’s results at Double-A, however, and his 4.48 FIP painted a much more encouraging picture of his performance headed into 2024.

Those solid peripheral numbers were enough to earn Henley a promotion to Triple-A entering this season, and the right-hander showed improvement in terms of results through 13 starts at the level. In 60 innings of work, Henley pitched to a 4.50 ERA that essentially matched his peripherals from the previous season. Unfortunately, a look under the hood at Henley’s performance suggests that he had actually regressed by just about every measure. His groundball rate dipped to 48% and his strikeout rate dropped to just 19.2% while his walk rate ballooned up to an unsightly 13.2%. Perhaps most concerning was his struggles with the long ball, as he allowed nearly a quarter (24.4%) of his fly balls to leave the yard for home runs during his first stay in Sugar Land.

Despite those worrisome peripherals, the Astros were undeterred from calling the right-hander up to the big leagues back in April, both because his Triple-A debut had gone relatively well (he struck out six and allowed three runs in five innings of work) but also because the club was without both Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez in the rotation at the time. Those rotation woes have only gotten worse since then, as the Astros are currently relying on a four-man rotation of Valdez, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown, and Spencer Arrighetti with the rest of their rotation depth currently on the shelf.

Even that dire rotation situation wasn’t enough for the Astros to give Henley another spot start in the majors after a brutal debut, however. That spot start in early April saw Henley surrender five runs on four hits, three walks, and a hit batsman while recording just one out and failing to record a strikeout. That leaves Henley with a career 135.00 ERA and 39.16 FIP at the big league level. Both of those figures would surely come down if the rookie were to get another opportunity in the majors, but it appears that Henley will have to right the ship at the Triple-A level before Houston gives him another look at the highest level.

Keoni Cavaco To Transition To Pitching, Signs Minor League Deal With Astros

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The Astros have signed Keoni Cavaco to a minor league deal, reports Kenny Van Doren of MLB Pipeline on X. Cavaco was released by the Twins earlier this month, as relayed by JJ Cooper of Baseball America on X. Per Darren Wolfson of SKOR North on X, the youngster is attempting a transition to pitching and the Astros were one of two teams who requested the move to the mound.

Going into the 2019 draft, Baseball America ranked Cavaco #31 among the available players that year. Their report at that time, when Cavaco had just turned 18, highlighted his immense natural tools. He had shown huge power and speed, as well as having strong third base defense with a plus arm for the hot corner. The biggest question mark was his hitting ability, as some swing-and-miss concerns were already present at the high school level.

That one area of concern wasn’t enough to tamp down the general level of excitement. FanGraphs was even more bullish than BA, putting Cavaco at #22 in the draft. The Twins selected him with the 13th overall pick and signed him to bonus of $4.05MM, $192K below slot value for that pick.

But that high-risk, high-reward play from the Twins has led to no reward at all, as those concerns about his hit tool proved to be prescient. He stepped to the plate 1,110 times while in the Twins’ system but hit just .212/.267/.335. He struck out in 36.8% of his plate appearances and walked only 6.3% of the time. He never advanced higher than the High-A level before being released.

Prior to being let go, he did make three appearances on the mound this year. He tossed two scoreless innings at the High-A level, with two strikeouts and no walks. Even as a high schooler, his arm at third base was considered to be strong, so he will try to use that to improve his job prospects going forward.

For the Astros, there’s little harm in signing a minor league deal and seeing what happens. There’s never been any doubt about Cavaco’s athletic gifts, so perhaps he can forge a path towards the big leagues on the mound instead of at the plate. Though he was drafted five years ago, he is only 23 years old and still has time to shift gears.

Oliver Ortega Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery

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The Astros announced that right-hander Oliver Ortega underwent surgery yesterday to remove a bone spur in his throwing elbow. He will miss the entire 2024 season. Lorenzo Delgado of Our Esquina was among those to relay the news on X.

Ortega, 27, was claimed off waivers from the Twins in October. In March, he underwent surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow, with the club providing a three-to-four-month recovery timeline at that point. Ortega started the season on the 15-day injured list and was transferred to the 60-day IL shortly thereafter. With this new surgery, it will go down as a completely lost season for the righty.

That’s obviously an unfortunate development for Ortega, as he was coming off an encouraging season. With the Twins in 2023, he tossed 14 2/3 innings at the major league level with a 4.30 earned run average. In 34 2/3 frames at the Triple-A level, he had a 1.82 ERA, 32.6% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 48.1% ground ball rate.

He went on the IL in August last year due to a left lumbar strain and stayed there for the end of the season. The IL goes away during the offseason, so the Twins tried to run Ortega through waivers but the Astros swooped in with a claim, undoubtedly intrigued by those strong Triple-A numbers last year. Instead, the righty’s injury woes have continued and he will have spent over a year without appearing in a major or minor league game by the time this season is over.

If there’s any consolation for Ortega, it’s that he’s collecting a full year of big league pay and service time in 2024, which is not nothing for a guy who’s been up-and-down for most of his career to this point. He came into this year with one year and 19 days of service, meaning he’ll be at 2.019 at the end of the year. He will need to be reinstated from the IL in the offseason. If he hangs onto his 40-man spot into the 2025 season, he still has one option year remaining.

MLBTR Podcast: Injured Trade Candidates, The Cristopher Sánchez Extension And Blue Jays’ Woes

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • “What would it take for the Rockies to consider trading some young assets like Ryan McMahon or Brendan Rodgers?” (23:55)
  • “The Astros are clearly out of it, so why isn’t Ryan Pressly a top target of teams with bad bullpens?” (30:35)
  • “Would the Marlins or Nationals trade with the Mets, Phillies or Braves, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Lane Thomas being good fits?” (39:25)
  • “Will T.J. McFarland of the Athletics be traded to the Cubs or another contender?” (47:45)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Luis Garcia Likely To Begin Rehab Assignment

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  • Astros starter Luis Garcia is likely to begin a rehab assignment with the team’s Florida Complex League affiliate this weekend (via the MLB.com injury tracker). He’s expected to throw two innings in what will be his first game action since undergoing Tommy John surgery last May. Garcia is coming up on 14 months since the procedure. He’ll likely need upwards of a month before he’s ready for MLB action but could be an option for Houston around or shortly after the trade deadline. Getting Garcia back would be the rare piece of positive injury news for an Astro rotation that has lost Cristian Javier, José Urquidy and JP France to season-ending surgeries.
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