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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | October 2, 2012 at 9:25am CDT

New ownership, a new front office, a new manager, even a new league. In many ways the 51-year-old Astros are the closest thing MLB has to an expansion franchise. 

Guaranteed Contracts 

  • None

Arbitration Eligible Players

  • Jed Lowrie, SS: second time eligible
  • Edgar Gonzalez, P: non-tender candidate
  • Wilton Lopez, RP: first time eligible
  • Wesley Wright, RP: first time eligible
  • Bud Norris, SP: first time eligible

Contract Options

  • Chris Snyder, C: $4MM mutual option with a $500K buyout

Free Agents

  • None

The Astros have more needs than can be addressed in a single offseason. They don’t score runs, they have trouble preventing runs, and the roster lacks players who project as MLB regulars on a contending team.

Jose Altuve - Astros (PW)

While the upcoming offseason offers general manager Jeff Luhnow the chance to make meaningful additions, it seems unlikely that Houston will court top free agents. If last offseason is any indication, the Astros will be among the sport's most restrained teams. A year ago, in his first offseason as Houston's GM, Luhnow signed two players to guaranteed contracts for a total of $1.45MM. It’d be a surprise if this winter unfolds much differently.

The Astros figure to pursue short-term contracts, minor league free agents and non-tendered players while exploring trades. They spent approximately $61MM on payroll in 2012, their first season under Luhnow and owner Jim Crane. Remarkably, they have less than $10MM committed to next year’s team before accounting for arbitration eligible players. Most of that sum goes to Wandy Rodriguez, who will be starting for the Pirates next year. As a result, the Astros should have financial flexibility even if they lower payroll for the 2013 campaign. This is a team with no bad contracts (and no good, team friendly ones, for that matter).

Adding veterans on one-year deals could make sense for the Astros, as long as the established players aren't displacing those in need of development at the MLB level. There’s value in winning as often as possible, even for non-contenders. It was once possible for teams to flip veterans on one-year deals for legitimate prospects, but those trades are becoming less common. Signing players with the intention of trading them for prospects midseason could also dissuade free agents from signing in Houston.

The Astros rank last in MLB in runs scored, which means offense is a clear need this winter. They have some promising middle infielders in Jose Altuve (pictured) and Jed Lowrie. But among the 30 MLB teams Houston ranks in the bottom ten in OPS at catcher, first base, left field, center field and right field. Then there’s the designated hitter role, which the Astros will have to fill for the first time in the 51-season history of the franchise. Jason Castro is in place behind the plate and Justin Maxwell has probably earned another shot in the outfield. Even so, there are plenty of positions at which Houston could potentially upgrade.

The Astros could also use starting pitching depth following a season in which the team's ERA exceeded 4.50. Ed Wade, Luhnow's predecessor, selected Lucas Harrell off of waivers toward the end of his tenure in Houston and this is precisely the sort of move the current Astros front office will look to replicate. Luhnow claimed three players off of waivers last winter, showing interest in allocating roster spots and playing time to players who have fallen out of favor elsewhere. This is advisable for the Astros, who should continue to prioritize upside over certainty. Only a fraction of pitchers who hit the waiver wire become valuable MLB starters, yet it’s still a worthwhile pursuit. Harrell, who posted a 3.88 ERA in 31 starts this year, joins Bud Norris and Jordan Lyles in Houston’s projected rotation. For now we'll assume Roger Clemens' role with the Astros will be limited to coaching.

If teams closer to contention pursue Norris aggressively it would make sense for Houston to listen. The Astros could aim to copy last year’s Gio Gonzalez trade and turn one established pitcher into multiple players close to the MLB level (the asking price for Norris would presumably be lower). Norris is under team control through 2015, and if the Astros don't expect to contend by then, they should consider trades that might bring long-term pieces to Houston.

The Astros don't have any departing free agents this year after parting ways with players like Carlos Lee, Brett Myers and Francisco Cordero midseason. They have one contract option, a $4MM mutual option for Chris Snyder. The catcher hit just .176/.295/.308 in 258 plate appearances this year, so expect the Astros to decline their side of the option and seek a more affordable backup.

The Astros have a relatively manageable arbitration class led by Norris, the first time eligible starter, and Lowrie, the second time eligible shortstop. Norris should do well after completing lots of innings early in his career and Lowrie's due for a raise after hitting 16 home runs. This isn't a particularly intimidating class from a team standpoint, however.

The Astros could explore an extension for Altuve this winter. The pre-arbitration eligible second baseman hit .274/.331/.351 in the second half after playing at an All-Star level for the first three months of the season, so Luhnow must determine what to expect from the 22-year-old going forward. It'll never be more affordable to lock Altuve up, but the team could easily wait another season before making a substantial commitment. They don't have as much time to decide on Lowrie, who's on track for free agency following the 2014 season. If the Astros aren't interested in extending their shortstop, this winter would be a good time to explore trades.

The Astros may have already made their most significant offseason addition, hiring Bo Porter as the team's new manager. Now that Porter's been hired, Luhnow and other Astros officials can focus on the team's roster instead of prolonging the managerial search unnecessarily.

The Astros will select first overall again next summer, when they'll have the opportunity to add another impact amateur player. Until then, Houston can take steps toward becoming a winning team. Just don't expect this organization to hasten the process in search of a quick fix.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

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Houston Astros Offseason Outlook

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Teams With Protected First Round Picks

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | October 1, 2012 at 10:14am CDT

Playoff races rightfully get most of the attention this time of year, but there’s intrigue at the bottom of the standings, too. Seven teams have clinched protected first round picks in the 2013 amateur draft with three days remaining in the regular season. The Astros, Cubs, Rockies, Twins, Marlins, Indians and Red Sox will have top ten selections in next year’s draft even if they win the remainder of their games. 

These teams can sign elite free agents this offseason (players who turned down qualifying offers from their former clubs) and retain their first round selections. Instead, these teams would surrender second round selections.

As MLBTR detailed last week, the nine teams with the worst records in baseball will have protected first round selections in 2013. The Pirates will also have a protected first round pick, since they did not sign their top 2012 selection, Mark Appel.

The Blue Jays and Royals are currently positioned to obtain the remaining two protected 2013 picks. The Mariners and Mets could pass the Blue Jays or Royals depending on the results of the season's final series.

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Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Cleveland Guardians Colorado Rockies Houston Astros Miami Marlins Minnesota Twins

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Cafardo On Blue Jays, Valentine, Smoak, Francona

By Zachary Links | September 30, 2012 at 8:41am CDT

In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe looks at this season's Executive of the Year candidates.  Orioles Executive Vice President Dan Duquette returned from baseball after a ten-year absence to turn the club around and help give them the biggest improvement in all of baseball.  In Oakland, A's GM Billy Beane has put the team in position to win with an exciting club powered by strong pitching.  In the National League, Nationals GM Mike Rizzo has made a strong case for the award as well for taking the 80-win Nats of 2011 and turning them into division champs.  A's outfielder Josh Reddick doesn't get a vote, but he believes that the title should go to Beane.  “He’s the best GM in baseball,” said Reddick. “And he has been for a long time. He gives people the opportunity to have their talents come out. The environment he creates is amazing.”  Here's more from today's column..

  • The prevailing thought is that the Blue Jays will demand a good player from the Red Sox in exchange for John Farrell, but those around Toronto believe it would be easier to get him now than it was last year.  Farrell is no longer viewed as the key to the Blue Jays' future, but he would be a strong pickup for the Red Sox who like his familiarity with the club.
  • If the Red Sox let Bobby Valentine go, his managerial career isn't necessarily finished.  Marlins Jeffrey Loria nearly hired him before he opted to go with Ozzie Guillen to ring in the club's new ballpark.  Bobby V could also be an option for the Reds where he is close with owner Bob Castellini and manager Dusty Baker is at the end of his deal.
  • Justin Smoak struggled for the bulk of the season but has come on recently thanks to a change in his swing mechanics.  Now, Cafardo writes, he's making it tough for the Mariners to decide if they want to keep him for the long haul or move him.
  • If Terry Francona does wind up taking the Indians job, Cafardo believes that he would be frustrated after a while given their limited resources.  The Tribe also lacks the ability to give Francona the big-time money that he could net from another team.
  • Cafardo was surprised by the Astros' hiring of Bo Porter over Rays bench coach Dave Martinez, given their desire to model themselves after Tampa Bay.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Cincinnati Reds Houston Astros Miami Marlins Oakland Athletics Seattle Mariners Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals

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Central Notes: Cubs, Hoyer, Indians, Astros

By Zachary Links | September 27, 2012 at 8:18pm CDT

Here's a look at some items out of the Central divisions..

  • Cubs General Manager Jed Hoyer has just $40MM committed to four players for 2013 and says that the rotation will be a priority for the club this winter, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.  “We certainly have to be aggressive with starting pitching over the course of the winter," said Hoyer.  Last night, Hoyer indicated that the Cubs are prepared to be active on the open market this winter.
  • A number of candidates have already emerged for the Indians job but Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com opines that newly-minted interim manager Sandy Alomar Jr. is the right hire.  Terry Francona, who has also been linked to the gig, appears to be a longshot as Cleveland may not have the money to give him an attractive offer.
  • Randy Harvey of the Houston Chronicle writes that Bo Porter won the Astros' job thanks in large part to his high-level of intensity, something that Brad Mills was not known for.
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Chicago Cubs Cleveland Guardians Houston Astros

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Managerial Notes: Porter, Marlins, Red Sox

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 27, 2012 at 5:23pm CDT

The Astros officially named Bo Porter their next manager today, publicly endorsing his experience and leadership skills. "He brings an energy to the clubhouse that is contagious and a teaching and motivating style that is appropriate for players of all ages and tenures," GM Jeff Luhnow said in a statement from the team. Here are more managerial notes from around MLB, starting with Porter and the Astros…

  • The Astros will wait until Porter finishes his season with the Nationals before making any decisions about the coaching staff, writes Clark Goble of MLB.com.  Porter will also be among those involved in the construction of the staff, according to Luhnow.  Interim manager Tony DeFrancesco will have a role with the club, but it's not yet known what that will involve.
  • The Astros considered a long list of candidates for the position before interviewing nine candidates, narrowing the list to four finalists and selecting Porter. Interim manager Tony DeFrancesco was another finalist for the position, according to the team.
  • The Nationals allowed Porter to meet with the Astros despite his obvious value in D.C., general manager Mike Rizzo said in a statement issued by the team. “He is smart, talented, and as fiery a competitor as there is in the game today,” Rizzo said.
  • The Marlins talked extensively about Porter, a former Miami coach, as a possible replacement for Ozzie Guillen, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports (on Twitter).
  • Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington hasn’t officially said that Bobby Valentine will be dismissed at the end of the regular season, but he discussed the logistics of searching for a manager in an appearance on WEEI’s the Dennis & Callahan show (transcript via Kirk Minihane). “One of the things, as I look back at last offseason, that didn't go perfectly was simply the amount of time that we spent on the manager search and what that did to the rest of the offseason. I would like to spend less time on it this offseason, that's for sure." Though Cherington didn’t quite say Valentine is getting fired, there’s not that much room for interpretation here.
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Boston Red Sox Houston Astros Miami Marlins Washington Nationals Bo Porter Bobby Valentine

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Astros Hire Bo Porter

By Mike Axisa | September 27, 2012 at 10:13am CDT

THURSDAY: The Astros officially announced that they've agreed to hire Porter.

WEDNESDAY: The Astros will name Nationals third base coach Bo Porter their new manager on Thursday morning, report Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Porter will remain with Washington until they complete their postseason run.

Porter, 40, has no managerial experience at the Major League level but has previously interviewed for the position with both the Marlins and Pirates. He's served as the Nats' third base coach since last season after holding the same position with he Diamondbacks in 2010. Porter served as Kirk Gibson's interim bench coach for part of that season as well.

Houston fired manager Brad Mills last month and has been run by interim manager Tony DeFrancesco since. GM Jeff Luhnow interviewed several candidates in recent weeks, including Rays bench coach Dave Martinez. DeFrancesco was also considered for the job on a full-time basis.

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Houston Astros Bo Porter

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Quick Hits: Baker, Varitek, LaHair, Padres, Berkman

By Mark Polishuk | September 25, 2012 at 11:08pm CDT

Reds manager Dusty Baker suffered a minor stroke on Friday, the team told reporters (including MLB.com's Mark Sheldon).  Baker was already in hospital being treated for an irregular heartbeat and was supposed to be released on Friday.  The 63-year-old was released instead on Sunday and is reportedly in good condition, addressing the Reds clubhouse this afternoon.  Bench coach Chris Speier has managed the team in Baker's absence and will continue to do so at least through Cincinnati's weekend series with the Pirates, though Baker is hopeful of returning for the Reds' final series of the year.

Here's some more news from around the baseball world…

  • Long-time Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek tells Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston that he is "close" to taking a job with the team.  Varitek will likely be a special assistant to GM Ben Cherington, though Edes notes that Varitek's teammates from Boston's 2004 World Series squad think he should be the next Red Sox manager. 
  • Bryan LaHair hopes to return to the Cubs next season, he tells CSNChicago.com's Patrick Mooney, though the team currently has no spot where he can get regular playing time.
  • Eric Stults' good performances in the Padres' rotation may have earned him a spot in next year's rotation, writes Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune.
  • Also from Bill Center, he examines the mixed results the Padres have thus far received from the seven players they signed to contract extensions this year.
  • Lance Berkman tells Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle that he hopes to play for a contender next season, which would seem to eliminate him returning to the Astros as a DH.  (Berkman has also considered retirement.)  Berkman also endorsed ex-teammate Tim Bogar as his choice to be the Astros' next manager.
  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson discussed the Ike Davis trade rumors, the chances of the Mets extending David Wright and R.A. Dickey and other topics during a visit to the SNY booth during Tuesday's game.  ESPN New York's Adam Rubin has a partial transcript.
  • Willy Taveras is working out and hopeful of returning to the Major Leagues next season, reports MLB.com's Evan Drellich.  Taveras, who turns 31 on Christmas Day, last played in the majors for the Nationals in 2010.
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Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Houston Astros New York Mets San Diego Padres Bryan LaHair Eric Stults Jason Varitek Lance Berkman Willy Taveras

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Managerial Notes: Tracy, Astros, Ausmus, Indians

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 25, 2012 at 9:05pm CDT

Marlins right-hander Heath Bell told Jim Duquette and Mike Ferrin on MLB Network Radio that he made a poor choice of words yesterday when he implied he doesn't respect Miami manager Ozzie Guillen. Bell said he does respect Guillen, but repeated that he doesn't like hearing things through the media. Here are some more notes on managers and managerial openings from around MLB…

  • The Rockies and Jim Tracy could agree to a role change for Tracy within the organization, leaving the team free to hire a new manager, opines Troy Renck of the Denver Post.  Tracy's "handshake deal" with Colorado only guarantees him the manager's job through 2013, Renck notes.
  • The White Sox and Cardinals' decisions to hire inexperienced managers Mike Matheny and Robin Ventura has thus far paid off for both teams, writes Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
  • Astros owner Jim Crane says his team has narrowed its search for a manager down to three or four candidates and they hope to have their new field boss in place within a week, reports MLB.com's Brian McTaggart.  An announcement could come later than that if the new manager is currently working for a team going to the playoffs.  Tony DeFrancesco, Tim Bogar, Dave Martinez and Bo Porter appear to be the final field of candidates.
  • While Brad Ausmus is open to interviewing for managerial positions this offseason, he has withdrawn his name from consideration for the Astros’ position, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reports (on Twitter). Ausmus, now a special assistant with the Padres, had interviewed for Houston’s managerial opening.
  • Nothing has been decided regarding the future of Indians manager Manny Acta because the organization must first decide on the future of general manager Chris Antonetti, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports. CEO Paul Dolan and President Mark Shapiro are expected to decide on the future of Antonetti, Hoynes writes.

MLBTR's Mark Polishuk also contributed to this post

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Cleveland Guardians Colorado Rockies Houston Astros Miami Marlins Brad Ausmus Chris Antonetti Heath Bell Ozzie Guillen

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Astros Links: Appel, Manager, Minors

By Steve Adams | September 24, 2012 at 9:52pm CDT

Some links surrounding the team that will jump ship from the NL Central into the AL West for the 2013 season…

  • The Astros have begun doing their homework for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2013 draft, and a familiar name could be in play once again, according to Brian McTaggart and Clark Goble of MLB.com. Stanford right-hander and Houston native Mark Appel will once again be among the team's candidates at 1-1, but he is just one of several players the team is considering, says scouting director Mike Elias. Appel, of course, was favored by many to be the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft, but fell to the Pirates at No. 8 and did not sign. Houston instead selected Puerto Rican shortstop Carlos Correa.
  • General manager Jeff Luhnow told reporters, including McTaggart and Goble, that the team is narrowing its search for a manager. The 'Stros started with a list of 45 candidates, narrowed that to nine, and have since whittled the list down even further.
  • Marty Noble of MLB.com writes that Red Sox bench coach Tim Bogar is the right man for the managerial job in Houston. Bogar served as a minor league manager in the Houston organization from 2004-05, and Noble feels that he is a "bright, motivated, dedicated, sincere, balanced, [and] personable" candidate who can generate "tangible improvement."
  • The Astros signed a two-year player development contract with the Class A Quad Cities River Bandits, McTaggart reports. Luhnow worked with the River Bandits when they were affiliated with the Cardinals, and a number of current Houston players have previously played there, including Brett Wallace and Tyler Greene.
  • Lastly, McTaggart tweets that the Astros will not renew the contract of catching instructor Danny Sheaffer, who has been with Houston as a minor league instructor since 2009.
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Houston Astros Mark Appel

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Cafardo On Angels, Ross, Loney, Carp, Scioscia

By Zachary Links | September 23, 2012 at 8:37am CDT

In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that there could be a few interesting options for manager Terry Francona this offseason.  There could be two additional openings for the former Red Sox manager with reports indicating that the Angels' Mike Scioscia and Jim Leyland of the Tigers could be in danger of being dismissed this offseason.  Cafardo opines that either team would be ideal for Tito as both teams have the resources to improve and he would be inheriting the same kind of talent-rich team he had in Boston after the 2003 season.  Here's more from Cafardo..

  • Outfielder Cody Ross has three major-market teams – the Phillies, Yankees, and Red Sox – very interested in him.  Ross has made it clear that he would like to stay in Boston and Larry Lucchino said earlier this week that the club is beginning the process of keeping him for next season and beyond. 
  • The Red Sox are also thinking about re-signing James Loney and he is receptive to coming back, but he could pick up attention in a thin first base market.  The Rays can be expected to kick the tires on Loney as they are unlikely to re-sign Carlos Pena.
  • Mariners first baseman/outfielder Mike Carp could be expendable as the club is likely committed to Justin Smoak at first base.  Carp is starting to appear on a few teams’ wish lists and one NL scout is rather high on him.  “He’s an interesting name,” said the scout. “He’s been buried on that roster in a big ballpark, and if you take him out of there, he may break out. He’s someone you’d take a chance on.”
  • One Angels exec expects to see Scioscia back in the dugout for the Halos next season.  “It would be shocking for me,” said the executive. “I know there have been some issues, but Mike is one of the best, and that’s widely recognized. Guys like Sosh don’t come along very often, which is why he has the long-term contract that he does.“But I suppose crazier things have happened.”  Scioscia is signed to a lucrative contract through 2018.
  • The Red Sox could consider Ed Wade as they seek experienced front office help.  There has also been talk that the Sox would consider Blue Jays assistant GM Tony LaCava, but that would require LaCava being offered a bigger title.
  • Rays bench coach Dave Martinez may now be the front-runner for the Astros job because they are using Tampa Bay as their model.  Red Sox bench coach Tim Bogar also has the Rays background and is tight with former Astros second baseman Craig Biggio, who is on the panel that will pick the next manager.
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Boston Red Sox Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies Seattle Mariners Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays James Loney

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