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Pitching Notes: Ryu, Keuchel, Ray, King Felix

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Hyun-Jin Ryu is very arguably the top starter remaining on the free-agent market, though his injury history is a clear red flag despite the southpaw’s dominant showing over the past couple of seasons. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported earlier this week that Ryu was “expected” to top four years and $80MM on his next contract, but on this morning’s appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove show (video link), Rosenthal indicated that multiple teams have since told him they were immediately skeptical of that price point: “I heard from a couple of clubs yesterday that said ’That’s not going to happen — not with that medical history.'”

Certainly, that doesn’t rule out the possibility of a four-year pact for Ryu, but the pushback serves to underscore what makes Ryu such a polarizing free agent. The 32-year-old (33 in March) has a 2.21 ERA over his past 265 innings and a 2.71 ERA in 391 2/3 innings dating back to 2017. On a per-inning basis, he’s among the market’s elite options, but Ryu’s age and injury history likely have some teams steering clear of him on any type of notable multi-year arrangement. It only takes one team to push to four years, but to this point, his realistic price tag is hard to pin down.

More on Ryu and the rest of the pitching market…

  • Ryu’s agent Scott Boras, who also represents lefty Dallas Keuchel, chatted with MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand about the two free-agent southpaws and (unsurprisingly) offered optimism that a deal could come together in the near future. “Clubs are identifying their needs, and we’re certainly narrowing the corridor of finality,” Boras said with characteristic idiosyncrasy. “It could happen soon.” Meanwhile, Bruce Levine of 670AM The Score/CBS Chicago writes that the White Sox are interested in both Boras lefties, also implying that the team might find it preferable to add a free-agent of that ilk rather than for a one-year rental (e.g. Robbie Ray). The ChiSox are still hopeful of reeling in a rotation upgrade but are wary of surrendering notable young talent for a one-year upgrade.
  • The Diamondbacks’ decision to sign Madison Bumgarner wasn’t made as a precursor to a Robbie Ray trade, GM Mike Hazen tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Of course, it wouldn’t behoove any general manager to proclaim otherwise, and as Piecoro observes, nothing in Hazen’s comments expressly rules out the possibility of trading Ray, who’ll be a free agent next winter. Arizona moved Paul Goldschmidt under similar circumstances, when he had a year of control remaining and was set to be their second-highest-paid player. (Ray will actually be Arizona’s highest-paid player, given the backloaded nature of Bumgarner’s deal.) The strong demand for pitching and dwindling supply in free agency should make Ray a popular target and could position the D-backs to again pick up a controllable piece or two that’s near the big league level, as was the case in recent trades of Goldschmidt (Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly) and Zack Greinke (Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Josh Rojas).
  • Former Mariners ace Felix Hernandez has already made clear he won’t be hanging up his spikes. He’s “receiving interest” from teams, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports on Twitter, although the extent of that interest isn’t clear. Hernandez may be a former Cy Young winner who sat atop the hierarchy of baseball’s very best pitchers from 2009-14, but his decline into a back-of-the-rotation arm and, more recently, a liability on the mound was rather swift. Over the past two seasons, Hernandez has limped to a dismal 5.82 ERA / 5.44 FIP in 227 1/3 innings. The scintillating heater that averaged nearly 96 mph and scraped triple digits when he debuted as a babyfaced 19-year-old in 2005 has faded to an 89.5 mph average dating back to Opening Day 2018. A pitcher with Hernandez’s preternatural talent shouldn’t be totally counted out, particularly given that he won’t even turn 34 until April, but he’s purely a rebound candidate at this point.

Diamondbacks, Kyle Crockett Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Diamondbacks and left-handed reliever Kyle Crockett are in agreement on a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League Spring Training, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

Crockett, who turned 28 over the weekend, was in camp with the Athletics last spring but didn’t make the team and didn’t pitch in affiliated ball during the 2019 season. A fourth-round pick by the Indians back in 2013, he blitzed through the minors and debuted with Cleveland barely a year after being selected. Crockett’s rookie campaign was nothing short of brilliant, too, as he tossed 30 innings with a 1.80 ERA (3.23 FIP) and turned in a 28-to-8 K/BB ratio out of the bullpen.

The University of Virginia product might’ve looked like a potential bullpen fixture at that point, but things didn’t play out that way. Rather, Crockett was given just 17 2/3 innings in the Majors the following year in 2015 and, in 28 2/3 Triple-A innings with Columbus that season, barely kept his ERA south of 6.00. In all, since that eye-opening MLB debut in ’14, Crockett has tossed 44 2/3 frames in the Majors with a 5.04 ERA. To his credit, his 45-to-17 K/BB ratio and mere two home runs allowed are encouraging aspects of his work in that time.

The D-backs could pick up some more experienced left-handed help in free agency or on the trade market, but as the roster is currently constructed, Crockett looks like he’ll at least have an opportunity to vie for a job this spring. Andrew Chafin is the lone left-handed reliever on the Diamondbacks’ 40-man roster, unless the team plans to move 2019 rotation member Alex Young to the ’pen in 2020.

Madison Bumgarner On Signing With Diamondbacks

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Longtime Giants left-hander Madison Bumgarner is staying in the National League West. He’s just not going to pitch in San Francisco anymore. Surprisingly, Bumgarner elected over the weekend to join the Diamondbacks – who haven’t made the postseason since 2017 or won a playoff game since 2011 – on a five-year, $85MM guarantee.

Although the Diamondbacks haven’t experienced much recent success on the sport’s biggest stage, Bumgarner – one of the greatest playoff pitchers in the game’s history – told reporters Tuesday that he targeted them entering free agency. Bumgarner even preferred going to Arizona than staying in San Francisco, where he won three World Series titles and cemented himself as a franchise icon.

“It was the No. 1 place for me,” the 30-year-old said of Arizona (via Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group). “I did tell (my agent) that. We talked about that often.”

Once the Diamondbacks showed serious interest, Bumgarner revealed that he “was done” looking for a team. Bumgarner entered free agency reportedly looking for a guarantee of $100MM or more. While he’s not going to reach that total in the desert, perhaps he would have had he signed elsewhere. He stated Tuesday that “we definitely left some money on the table. You can say that,” per Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (subscription link).

Now that Bumgarner’s officially in the fold for the Diamondbacks, he’ll be part of an impressive-looking rotation that’s also slated to include Luke Weaver, Robbie Ray, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Moreover, because Bumgarner’s contract includes deferrals and is backloaded (he’ll make $6MM in 2020), the Diamondbacks still have the financial room to make other upgrades to a roster that won a respectable 85 games last season. By agreeing to such a team-friendly salary for next season, Bumgarner showed off “his commitment to winning,” general manager Mike Hazen observed.

Diamondbacks Sign Madison Bumgarner

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DECEMBER 17: The deal is now official.

Zach Buchanan of The Athletic reports further details on the contract structure (Twitter links). Bumgarner will earn just $6MM in 2020 before receiving successive salaries of $19MM, $23MM, $23MM, and $14MM. In each of the middle three campaigns, $5MM is deferred without interest. That money will be paid out in 2025-27.

DECEMBER 15: The Diamondbacks are closing in on a five-year deal that will bring free agent left-hander Madison Bumgarner to Arizona, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The deal comes with an $85MM guarantee, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network, with The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal adding that $15MM of that total will come in the form of deferred payments. Per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, the deal also includes a limited no-trade clause that allows Bumgarner to block trades to five teams.

It’s a somewhat surprising conclusion to Bumgarner’s first trip through free agency; while the 30-year-old had garnered well-documented interest from big-market teams like the Dodgers and Braves, the Diamondbacks were given relatively little attention as one of the teams pursuing the lefty. However, it seems that this match may have been motivated in part by the player’s interest in a team: Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic speculates that Bumgarner may have had larger offers on the table, but the geographic attraction of Arizona placed the Diamondbacks atop his list. In adding Bumgarner for $85MM, the Diamondbacks have handed out the second-largest contract in franchise history, behind only the mega-deal that brought Zack Greinke to the D-Backs prior to 2015.

And the price tag may look a bit low for Bumgarner, who was said to have his sights set on a nine-figure contract this winter. That seemed increasingly likely once the Phillies doled out $118MM to Zack Wheeler. Bumgarner is less than a year older than Wheeler and owns an undeniably stronger track record — interestingly, Bumgarner already had two championship rings by the time Wheeler made his MLB debut — but the disparity is indicative of teams’ belief in Wheeler’s projection, whereas Bumgarner’s best days could already be behind him. MLBTR had predicted that MadBum would end up with a four-year, $72MM deal. The actual contract adds another guaranteed season at a lesser rate of pay.

It may be that Bumgarner could have topped $100MM had he signed elsewhere. His reps gave other organizations the sense there there were multiple offers at that level, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Bumgarner evidently preferred to land in Arizona.

The Diamondbacks are clearly optimistic about Bumgarner’s future. While his numbers have certainly dipped noticeably from his stellar 2011-2016 span, Bumgarner is still a solid, reliable starter who has churned out 200-plus innings on a yearly basis. In 2019, his 3.90 ERA was the worst mark he’s posted in his career, but his strikeout rate reached its highest point since 2016. His home/road splits have been a noteworthy point of contention for those debating his value; having spent his entire career in the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park, it’s fair to question how well he would fare in a different ballpark. With just a 35.8% groundball rate and a hard-hit rate that ranks in only the 10th percentile, skeptics may project an uptick in home runs outside of San Francisco.

Of course, we can’t discuss Madison Bumgarner without chronicling his legendary postseason ledger: during the heyday of the Giants’ early-2010s dynasty, MadBum tossed 102 1/3 innings of 2.11-ERA ball in October, including a 2014 run in which he shouldered the San Francisco pitching staff and worked 21 innings in the World Series alone.

With Bumgarner departing San Francisco after turning down the qualifying offer, the Giants will acquire a complementary draft choice in the 2020 draft, which adds to a healthy stable of picks that includes compensation received for Will Smith’s departure. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, will surrender their third-highest draft pick as an additional cost for signing Bumgarner.

Much to the dismay of the San Francisco faithful, Bumgarner will remain the NL West, where he’ll face his former club several times every year. If it’s any consolation, Bumgarner won’t be donning Dodger blue when he makes his return. Still, the $17MM AAV that Bumgarner will earn over the next five years is certainly affordable and calls into question just how hard the Giants pushed to retain Bumgarner, even at a reasonable price. Giants fans can certainly be forgiven if there’s frustration that a franchise icon won’t spend his entire career with the team that drafted him.

Additionally, it’s possible that adding Bumgarner might afford the D-Backs greater freedom to explore trading lefty Robbie Ray, who has by now grown tired of hearing his name rumored in trades. He’s expected to earn just about $11MM in 2020, and with the Bumgarner signing representing another top-flight pitching option flying off the market, there’s a chance that pitcher-needy contenders, growing anxious at the shrinking supply of starters, could be more willing to pony up a shiny return for Ray. Even without Ray, the D-Backs’ starting rotation looks like a point of strength: Bumgarner will join rookie standout Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver, Mike Leake, and Merrill Kelly in the projected opening day rotation. Jon Duplantier and Corbin Martin, acquired in the deal that sent Greinke to Houston, loom as other options to contend for starts.

Twins To Hire Mike Bell As Bench Coach

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The Twins will hire Diamondbacks farm director/vice president of player development Mike Bell as their new bench coach, per Ken Rosenthal, Zach Buchanan and Eno Sarris of The Athletic (Twitter link). He’ll be stepping into the void left by Derek Shelton when he was hired as manager of the Pirates. Bell, the younger brother of Reds manager David Bell, was a managerial candidate himself this winter. He interviewed with the Mets and was also reportedly considered for the Pirates gig that eventually went to Shelton.

The 44-year-old also interviewed with both the Rangers and the Orioles last offseason, so it stands to reason that the Twins could be making a hire who’ll draw managerial interest again in the near future. The 2019 season was his third as the Diamondbacks’ farm director, but Bell previously served as the team’s director of player development and spent another three years as a minor league manager. In all, he’s been with the D-backs as a minor league skipper or a front office executive for a total of 13 years.

A former third baseman, Bell was a first-round pick of the Rangers back in 1993 and is the son of five-time MLB All-Star Buddy Bell, who also managed in parts of nine MLB seasons with the Tigers, Rockies and Royals.

Bell isn’t the only notable hire for the Twins in recent days, however. Kendall Rogers of D1Baseball.com tweets that Minnesota has hired UC Santa Barbara hitting coach Donegal Fergus as their new minor league hitting coordinator. The Twins haven’t been shy about dipping into the college coaching ranks to fill out key positions in their organization recently, with second-year pitching coach Wes Johnson (formerly the pitching coach at Arkansas) standing out as the most notable hire to date.

Details On Madison Bumgarner’s Agreement With The Diamondbacks

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Madison Bumgarner became the latest free agent pitcher to leave the open market, agreeing to a five-year, $85MM deal with the Diamondbacks on Sunday.  While reports from earlier this week suggested that Arizona was in the mix, it still raised a lot of eyebrows to see the D’Backs (who weren’t considered likely to either make a big free agent signing or pursue a big-ticket pitcher) wind up as Bumgarner’s new destination.  Here’s more on the signing…

  • The Diamondbacks were Bumgarner’s top choice in free agency “provided they could pay him at an appropriate level,” The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) hears from a source close to the left-hander.  The $85MM guarantee was enough to get it done, though $15MM of the money is deferred.  While it wasn’t quite the five-year/$100MM commitment Bumgarner and his camp were reportedly hoping to land, it could be that the D’Backs came close enough, or — as Rosenthal speculates — perhaps no team was willing to go to nine figures for Bumgarner’s services.
  • Rosenthal and his fellow scribes at The Athletic discussed the Bumgarner signing in a roundtable, with Andrew Baggarly noting that new Giants manager Gabe Kapler hadn’t yet spoken with the southpaw as of the Winter Meetings.  In Baggarly’s view, that was the sign that Bumgarner wasn’t returning to San Francisco.  “If the Giants had legitimate interest, and believed they had a legitimate chance, you can bet that calls and meetings would’ve been set up. Kapler would have begun the back-channeling before he even got the job,” Baggarly writes.
  • A counter-argument of sorts is provided by Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter links), who reports that the Giants offered Bumgarner a four-year contract in the range of $17MM per year in average annual value.  “One of [Bumgarner’s] confidants” believes the lefty would have re-signed with the Giants had they offered him the same deal as Arizona, Schulman writes, except the fifth year might have been enough to pull the D’Backs of San Francisco and perhaps other suitors.  Indeed, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News (Twitter link) reports that the Twins were also unwilling to give Bumgarner a fifth year.
  • The fact that Bumgarner went to something of a mystery team creates even more of a crunch for teams who were known to be more fervently pursuing rotation help.  Ironically, the team that could benefit from this crunch could be the D’Backs themselves.  As The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan puts it, “the Diamondbacks may have just created the starting pitching scarcity they need to trade Robbie Ray for his best value.”  There has been wide speculation that Ray could be dealt this offseason, as Ray is entering the final year of his contract and is projected to earn $10.8MM in his last year of arbitration eligibility.  With Bumgarner now in the fold, the D’Backs could feel enough comfort in their rotation to move Ray and both address other needs while getting his salary off the books at the same time.
  • As a final coda on Bumgarner’s tenure with the Giants, Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group notes that Bumgarner might not have reached free agency if it weren’t for a pair of injuries — Bumgarner’s infamous dirt biking accident in April 2017, and then the fractured hand suffered on his last Spring Training outing in 2018.  In both instances, the Giants were on the verge of broaching extension talks with their longtime ace.

MLBTR Poll: Nicholas Castellanos’ Contract

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With free agency’s top three players all having come off the board at the Winter Meetings, fans can now turn their attention to the second tier of the market. Chief among those second-tier players is Nicholas Castellanos. The youngest free agent among MLBTR’s top 50, the 27-year-old (28 in March) has compiled a strong multi-year offensive track record. Since the start of 2017, he has slashed .287/.337/.505 (121 wRC+). He also has the fortune of hitting the market fresh off a dynamic second-half tear following a trade from the Tigers to the Cubs. Even more importantly, that midseason swap allowed him to hit the market unencumbered by a qualifying offer.

Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings have been thoroughly discussed, and they figure to drag down his market somewhat. He washed out at third base, and the Tigers bumped him to the corner outfield. Unsurprisingly, that transition got off to a dreadful start, as Castellanos rated as 31 outs below average, per Statcast, over his first season-plus on the grass. To his credit, he took a significant step forward with the glove in 2019. Last year, Statcast had Castellanos as just two outs below average, while UZR and DRS each felt he cost his teams about five to ten runs defensively. It’s highly unlikely Castellanos will ever be even average with the glove, but he has shown enough competency to pique the interest of NL suitors. Teams needn’t have a DH slot to plug Castellanos’ potent bat into the lineup. They just have to be willing to stomach less-than-ideal range in the corner outfield.

Castellanos’ youth gives him a broad range of appeal. Teams not poised to contend in 2020 could still pursue Castellanos and expect a few peak years in 2021 and beyond. Whether he would be amenable to joining a non-contender after suffering through a few miserable years in Detroit isn’t clear, but he should have plenty of options. To this point in the offseason, we’ve heard Castellanos linked to the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Reds. The Cubs, too, obviously like the player, but they are seemingly unwilling to take on the cost a Castellanos deal would require. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR readers considered the cross-town White Sox the plurality favorite, as did the MLBTR staff. They haven’t been publicly tied to Castellanos this offseason, though, and they’ve seemingly addressed their right field situation through other means. To this point, the strongest tie to Castellanos has been with the Giants. One rival executive thinks it a foregone conclusion he’ll end up in San Francisco, although there’s ample time for the sweepstakes to go in any number of directions.

What of Castellanos’ price tag? He’s a tough free agent to pin down. The MLBTR staff forecast a four-year, $58MM deal at the start of the offseason. There are perhaps wider error bars on Castellanos than many free agents, though. He obviously has wide appeal, having been linked to almost a third of the league over the past month. The market, too, has proven stronger than anticipated for quite a few players in the early going. That said, we’re only a few months removed from the Tigers trading Castellanos to Chicago for a pair of mid-tier prospects. That came on the heels of months of Detroit not finding any offers to their liking despite Castellanos’ prominent availability on the trade block. There’s no doubt Castellanos improved his stock somewhat by tearing the cover off the ball in Chicago, but it wasn’t all that long ago that teams seemed to regard him as a fine but hardly game-changing player.

As we did recently with Josh Donaldson, let’s turn things over to you to gauge the Castellanos market.

Where will Castellanos sign (answer order randomized)? Poll link for app users.

 

For how long will the contract be? Poll link for app users.

 

What will be the final number? Poll link for app users.

D-backs Rumors: Ray, Ozuna, Outfield, Bullpen

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Executives who’ve spoken to the Diamondbacks about left-hander Robbie Ray believe that Arizona will ultimately trade him this winter, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription required). That move wouldn’t be the precursor to any larger-scale sell off but would rather be a means of capitalizing on a valuable asset in his final year before reaching the free-agent market. Ray, who’ll pitch all of the 2020 season at 28, was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $10.8MM in arbitration on the heels of a 2019 season that included a 4.34 ERA, 12.1 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a 37 percent ground-ball rate through 174 1/3 innings. Walks and home runs have long been an issue for Ray, but only four starters in baseball — Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander — have a higher overall strikeout rate than Ray’s 31.9 percent dating back to 2017.

More out of Arizona…

  • While the D-backs have spoken with the agents for Marcell Ozuna, they’re not in active pursuit of the free-agent outfielder at this point, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets. Arizona could circle back to Ozuna later in the offseason if he lingers on the market, Sanchez adds. Speculatively speaking, that seems like an indicator that the D-backs aren’t comfortable with Ozuna’s current price point but could be amenable to a shorter-term arrangement if he’s unable to find the lucrative multi-year deal he’s seeking. Ozuna rejected a qualifying offer from the Cardinals in November, and he’d hardly be the first player to see his market stagnate due to the burden of draft compensation. There’s little indication that he’s in danger of that sort of limbo, but the D-backs are the second potential suitor in as many weeks who’ve had some cold water thrown on previously reported interest. White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf told MLB Network’s Jon Heyman last week (Twitter link) that Ozuna hasn’t come up in his talks with GM Rick Hahn, and the Sox have since acquired Nomar Mazara.
  • Arizona skipper Torey Lovullo appeared on MLB Tonight this week and discussed a variety of issues, including breakouts from Ketel Marte and Christian Walker as well as the remainder of the team’s offseason (video link). While Lovullo isn’t the one calling the shots on any roster additions, he indicated that addressing the outfield is the primary focus for the club. “I think we’re trying to prioritize the outfield right now,” Lovullo said after praising the team’s pitching depth. “I think it’s fairly obvious we don’t have a lot of [outfield] depth in our organization.” Arizona non-tendered Steven Souza Jr. after a pair of injury-ruined seasons and has yet to commit to whether Marte will be a second baseman or center fielder in 2020. Marte’s versatility, as Lovullo notes, gives GM Mike Hazen and his staff plenty of flexibility when looking at how to best tackle the team’s remaining needs.
  • As far as the bullpen is concerned, Lovullo said in a separate interview that while he prefers to have a designated closer/ninth-inning option in place, the Diamondbacks could “ask somebody to get four outs from time to time” next season. Archie Bradley’s ability to pitch more than an inning at a time and the 18 saves he tallied in 2019 are a “nice starting point” when trying to determine who’ll close for Arizona in 2020, per Lovullo. But the D-backs are also still in the market for another bullpen arm, so it’s possible that some competition will be brought in to join the mix of candidates. At the moment, the D-backs aren’t making any firm proclamations as to who’ll be shutting down games for them next year.

NL West Rumors: Padres, Marte, D-backs, MadBum, Rox, Marquez

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Continuing an active winter in the San Diego outfield, the Padres have joined the race to acquire Pirates center fielder Starling Marte, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. The Padres have already shuffled around their outfield quite a bit this offseason, having added two players (Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham) and subtracted another (Hunter Renfroe). They could get rid of at least one more if a team takes Wil Myers off their hands. The Padres at least tried to pawn Myers off on his first professional team – the Royals – in the clubs’ talks centering on utilityman Whit Merrifield, but KC didn’t bite, according to Scott Miller of Bleacher Report.

More rumblings from the NL West…

  • The Diamondbacks “floated” a proposal to Madison Bumgarner that would have promised him something in the realm of $70MM, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. That falls in line with MLBTR’s $72MM prediction (over four years) for Bumgarner, but the highly accomplished 30-year-old has his eyes fixed on a much richer contract. The longtime Giant’s reportedly aiming for a payday in the $100MM range.
  • Teams have inquired about Rockies right-hander German Marquez, but they haven’t shown any willingness to trade him, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. It’s neither surprising that other teams covet the strikeout-heavy Marquez nor that the Rockies want to keep him. Before last season, they signed the 24-year-old to a club-friendly extension – one that will see him earn a guaranteed $40.5MM from 2020-23 (including a $2.5MM buyout in ’24).
  • Back in late September, the Padres and lights-out closer Kirby Yates were reportedly discussing an extension. No new deal has come together since, but it appears the two sides will at least make an effort to hammer something out. In regards to a potential extension, Yates told Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune: “I’m always interested. It’s not up to me. When you get to that point, you have the discussions.” Likewise, the Padres are open to it. The club will “start talking to Kirby about his situation for next year” later this offseason, general manager A.J. Preller revealed. The 32-year-old Yates has just one remaining season of arbitration control, in which he’s projected to earn a bargain salary of $6.5MM.
  • The Diamondbacks were already known to have interest free-agent center fielder Shogo Akiyama, and GM Mike Hazen revealed they met with the Japanese standout on Tuesday, per Piecoro.  The Cubs also met with Akiyama’s representatives.

Latest On Madison Bumgarner

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DEC. 10: It’s looking increasingly probable that Bumgarner will either reach or approach his $100MM-plus goal, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. “Many teams” are in the race, per Heyman, who tweets that the Twins “are thought to be” heavily in pursuit.

DEC. 9, 5:11pm: The Giants, Bumgarner’s lone team to date, are among his suitors and will meet with his representation this week, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. “We’re involved in those discussions,” Zaidi said. “We’re planning to meet with his representatives this week and they have other meetings scheduled, too. That’s what happens when a player is a free agent, they’re going to explore all their options. Guys are looking for different things, looking for maybe a particular geography, maybe a team in a specific part of their competitive cycle.” Interestingly, although they’re not known for their spending, the division-rival Diamondbacks are also in the mix, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. The Angels are also part of it, though whether they’re aggressive in pursuing Bumgarner could depend on if they land Gerrit Cole.

10:46am: Representatives of southpaw Madison Bumgarner have informed interested organizations that he’s looking to top nine figures over five years with his first free agent contract, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. Whether he’ll get there remains to be seen.

Zack Wheeler just blew past the $100M mark, but MLBTR predicted he’d substantially out-earn Bumgarner. While Bumgarner has unquestionably accomplished more in his career to date, the younger Wheeler seems on the upswing. We predicted Bumgarner would land at four years and $72MM, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him approach or even reach the $100MM level if interest soars to five years.

The question facing MLB teams is whether they believe Bumgarner can sustain his excellent results despite less-than-exceptional peripheral numbers. He doesn’t throw as hard as he did in his heyday, but Bumgarner’s velocity has stabilized in the 91 to 92 mph range. He got swings and misses as often as ever in the just-completed campaign after experiencing a somewhat worrisome 2018 downturn. But Bumgarner hasn’t drawn quite as many strikeouts and hasn’t limited the long ball as successfully as he once did, leading ERA estimators to dim on his value.

Bumgarner stands as an interesting market bellwether. Teams won’t pay for his past performance; those days are over. But will they put a big dollar value on his still-significant anticipated future contributions? And will his history of stepping up in the postseason help his cause? Bumgarner is still just thirty years of age and got back to his 200-inning ways in 2019. And even the post-injury version of the lefty still hasn’t finished a season having allowed four earned runs per nine innings.

There are a variety of teams with interest, though to what level isn’t yet evident. The Twins, White Sox, and Reds have been linked clearly to Bumgarner, while the Reds, Cardinals, and Yankees have also been cited as possibilities. It’ll cost the winning bidder draft compensation to add Bumgarner, which could temper the willingness to add yet more dollars and/or years to an offer.

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