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Rule 5 Draft Update: May 2023

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It’s been more than a months since we last checked in on this year’s group of Rule 5 draftees and how they’re faring around the league. Fifteen players were selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft — those unfamiliar with the event can read up on the specifics here — and since last check there have been a few notable developments among the group. Let’s take a look…

Currently on a Major League Roster

Thaddeus Ward, RHP, Nationals (from Red Sox)
Since last update: 7 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 3 hits, 1 HR, 9 BB, 7 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 14 2/3 innings, 4.91 ERA, 8 H, 2 HR, 24.2% strikeout rate, 21% walk rate, 51.5% ground-ball rate

Since last check in early April, Ward has had a three-walk appearance in which he pitched just one inning and a four-walk appearance in which he only recorded two outs. His command has been among the worst in baseball, as only two pitchers (min. 10 innings) have walked a greater percentage of their opponents: twice-DFA’ed right-hander Javy Guerra and injured Rockies righty Dinelson Lamet.

At last check, Ward was struggling with that command but still had fanned more than 30% of his opponents. He’s seen his strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and average fastball all dip over the past five weeks. The Nationals have done a decent job hiding him — he’s appeared in just 25% of their games — and with a projected playoff chance under 1%, they might not care about the rough performance. Ward was one of the Red Sox’ top pitching prospects before a more than two-year layoff due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and 2021 Tommy John surgery. He posted a 2.28 ERA, 31% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate in 51 1/3 minor league innings in last year’s return effort. The Nationals are rebuilding anyway, and as long as they still like Ward’s stuff, they can afford to let him take his lumps in the big leagues even though he entered the season with just 41 innings above A-ball.

Ryan Noda, 1B/OF, Athletics (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 103 plate appearances, .221/.417/.416, 2 HR, 22.3% walk rate, 31.1% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 140 plate appearances, .215/.400/.421, 4 HR, 8 2B, 1 3B, 1 SB, 21.4% walk rate, 32.1% strikeout rate

The only five hitters in baseball with more walks than Noda’s 30 are Juan Soto, Adley Rutschman, Ian Happ, Matt Olson and Max Muncy. All but Muncy have more plate appearances. Noda’s massive walk rate leads MLB’s 171 qualified hitters … but his 32.1% strikeout rate is also tied for the seventh-highest. A whopping 56% of his plate appearances have ended in either a walk, strikeout or home run, making the 27-year-old the embodiment of a three-true-outcome player.

The strikeouts may be tough to watch, but Noda’s .400 OBP is tied for tenth among qualified hitters. He’s picked up 13 extra-base hits, is sitting on a strong .206 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) and boasts a 140 wRC+ despite his low batting average. Defensive metrics feel he’s been a competent, if not slightly above-average first baseman. Noda is getting on base 40% of the time he comes to the plate, and there’s no way the A’s (or any team) would take him off the roster as long as he’s doing that.

Jose Hernandez, LHP, Pirates (from Dodgers)
Since last update: 11 innings, 4.09 ERA, 9 hits, 2 HR, 2 BB, 14 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 17 1/3 innings, 3.12 ERA, 15 hits, 2 HR, 27.5% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 38.3% ground-ball rate

Injuries to Jarlin Garcia and Rob Zastryzny — who was activated today — left Hernandez as the lone lefty option in Derek Shelton’s bullpen, but Hernandez has handled the role just fine. The Orioles tagged him for a pair of runs in an appearance that saw him record just one out last week, but Hernandez has generally been sharp despite skipping Triple-A entirely.

Hernandez is averaging just under 96 mph on his fastball, and his 12.5% swinging-strike rate is better than the league average. He’s picked up a pair of holds for the Pirates and his 23.2 K-BB% ties him for 28th among 192 qualified relievers. He’s given up too much hard contact (89.9 mph average exit velocity, 40.4% hard-hit rate), but he looks the part of a useful big league reliever right now and shouldn’t be in any danger of losing his roster spot.

Blake Sabol, C/OF, Giants (from Pirates)
Since last update: 66 plate appearances, .323/.364/.565, 4 HR, 6.1% walk rate, 39.4% strikeout rate
Overall 2023 numbers: 100 plate appearances, .280/.330/.473, 5 HR, 3 2B, 2 SB, 5% walk rate, 38% strikeout rate

Sabol has been on fire since our early-April look at the Rule 5’ers who made their Opening Day rosters, though he’s benefited from a mammoth .500 BABIP along the way. Still, the four long balls in that time show impressive pop, and the Giants have given him looks in both left field and at catcher.

Sabol has above-average sprint speed, exit velocity and hard-contact abilities, and both Statcast and FanGraphs give him above-average framing marks in his limited time behind the dish. However, he’s also needed a hefty .420 BABIP to get to his current production, and no player in baseball strikes out more often or swings and misses more often than Sabol has. Sabol’s 60.3% contact rate is the worst in Major League Baseball, and if he can’t improve that mark and start to draw some more walks, it’s hard to imagine continuing anything close to this level of production. Regression looks quite likely for this version of Sabol, but he walked and made contact at much better clips in Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there’s still hope for improvement as he gains more experience.

Mason Englert, RHP, Tigers (from Rangers)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 2.76 ERA, 13 hits, 3 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 23 2/3 innings, 4.18 ERA, 21 hits, 6 HR, 17.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 47.2% ground-ball rate

The Tigers have used Englert for more than an inning in nine of his 13 appearances, including eight outings of at least two innings (two of which were three-inning efforts). He’s provided the team with some length but also been used in a few leverage spots, evidenced by a pair of holds and, more regrettably, a pair of blown saves. While his strikeout rate is pedestrian, Englert’s 11.6% swinging-strike rate and 34.3% opponents’ chase rate are average or better. That doesn’t necessarily portend a major uptick in punchouts, but there’s probably more in the tank than his current 17.8% clip.

Englert has been far too homer-prone (2.28 HR/9), and that’s been his Achilles heel thus far. If he can rein in the long ball, he could give the Detroit bullpen some length for the balance of the season and perhaps even start some games should they need. The 23-year-old was a starter in the Rangers’ system prior to being selected by the Tigers last December.

Detroit has outperformed most expectations thus far, although at 19-22 with a -48 run differential, the Tigers still don’t look like viable contenders. If they’re hovering around the Wild Card race later in the year and Englert is struggling, perhaps they’d be tempted to move on, but for now he’s pitched well enough and the Tigers are far enough from the postseason picture that they can afford to keep him around even if he stumbles a bit.

Kevin Kelly, RHP, Rays (from Guardians)
Since last update: 16 1/3 innings, 23 hits, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K
Overall 2023 numbers: 22 1/3 innings, 4.84 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate, 4% walk rate, 42.1% ground-ball rate

Kelly, 25, has looked sharp in most of his appearances but has been tagged for multiple earned runs three times — including a pair of three-run clunkers. For a short reliever, that’s… less than optimal. The Rays have felt comfortable using him in plenty of leverage spots, however, evidenced by a quartet of holds, a save and another blown save.

Kelly’s 4% walk rate gives the air of pinpoint command, but he’s also plunked three hitters and has a below-average 58.4% rate of throwing a first-pitch strike. He hasn’t allowed a home run, in part because he hasn’t allowed a single barreled ball this year. Kelly has avoided hard contact better than the average pitcher, eschewed walks and generally pitched better than his near-5.00 ERA might otherwise indicate. With the Rays firmly in contention, he’ll need to avoid a prolonged slump to stick on the roster, but it’s clear they believe he can be a solid reliever even with below-average velocity (92 mph average fastball) and strikeout abilities.

Currently on the Major League Injured List

  • Nic Enright, RHP, Marlins (from Guardians): Enright announced in February that just weeks after being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, doctors diagnosed him with Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He’s undergone treatment and been on a minor league rehab assignment as he rebuilds game strength. Enright is currently on Miami’s 60-day injured list, but baseball of course takes a back seat in this type of instance. We at MLBTR join fans of the Marlins, Guardians and every other organization in pulling for the 26-year-old Enright and wishing him a full recovery.
  • Noah Song, RHP, Phillies (from Red Sox): Ranked as the No. 65 prospect in the 2019 draft by Baseball America, Song slid to the Red Sox in the fourth round due to his military commitments as a Naval Academy cadet. His professional experience is limited to 17 Low-A innings in 2019 while spending the past three seasons in the Navy but was transferred from active duty to selective reserves earlier this year, allowing him to play baseball. He’s on the Phillies’ 15-day injured list with a back strain, and it’s tough to imagine him just diving into a Major League bullpen after spending three years away from the game. Still, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski held that same title in Boston when the Red Sox drafted Song and has said since the Rule 5 Draft that he feels Song’s pure talent is worth the risk.
  • Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Cardinals (from Yankees): The 33-year-old Rodriguez’s incredible story hit an abrupt roadblock when he underwent shoulder surgery earlier this month. It’s been eight years since he last pitched in affiliated ball and nine years since his lone MLB cup of coffee with the Royals. Since then, he’s been a staple in the Venezuelan Winter League and the Mexican League. The Yankees signed Rodriguez to a minor league deal last summer, but because he wasn’t on the 40-man roster and had enough prior professional experience, he was Rule 5-eligible and scooped up by the Cardinals. They can retain his rights into next season but would need to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter in order to do so, and he wouldn’t be optionable to until he spent 90 days on the active MLB roster next season. That scenario seems highly unlikely.

Currently in DFA Limbo

  • Gus Varland, RHP, Brewers (from Dodgers): Varland wowed the Brewers in spring training when he punched out 17 of his 35 opponents (48.6%), but he landed on the injured list on April 16 — three days after MLBTR’s last Rule 5 check-in — when he was struck by a comebacker. The diagnosis was a hand contusion, and Varland was back on a big league mound about three weeks later. The 26-year-old posted a 2.25 ERA through his first eight innings this year but did so with just five strikeouts against five walks. On May 15, the Cardinals clobbered him for nine runs on six hits (two homers) and three walks with one strikeout in just two-thirds of an inning. That outing sent Varland’s ERA careening to its current 11.42 mark. The Brewers designated him for assignment the next day. He’ll have to pass through waivers unclaimed — he’d retain all of his Rule 5 restrictions if claimed by another club — and offered back to the Dodgers after that.

Already Returned to their Former Club

  • Nick Avila, RHP: Avila allowed eight runs in ten spring innings with the White Sox and was returned to the Giants, for whom he posted an electric 1.14 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season.
  • Andrew Politi, RHP: Politi was tagged for six runs on nine hits and three walks in 8 2/3 spring innings with the Orioles, who returned him to the Red Sox late in camp.
  • Jose Lopez, LHP: Lopez walked five batters in six frames with the Padres this spring, and the Friars returned him to the Rays on March 27.
  • Chris Clarke, RHP: The towering 6’7″ Clarke faced the tough task of cracking a deep Mariners bullpen and was returned to the Cubs late in spring training after allowing four runs on eight hits and a pair of walks in 6 2/3 innings.
  • Zach Greene, RHP: The Mets plucked Greene out of the Yankees’ system, but in 4 2/3 innings during spring training he yielded seven runs with more walks (six) than strikeouts (five). The Mets returned him to the Yankees on March 14.

Orioles Acquire Robbie Glendinning From Royals

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The Orioles announced that they have acquired minor league infielder Robbie Glendinning from the Royals in exchange for cash considerations. Glendinning will report to Triple-A Norfolk. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the deal prior to the official announcement.

Glendinning, 27, is originally from Australia but attended the University of Missouri before being selected by the Pirates in the 21st round of the 2017 draft. He went on to hit .274/.361/.417 through the end of 2019, climbing from Low-A up to Double-A in that time. The minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic in 2020 and Glendinning missed 2021 as well, getting released by the Pirates prior to 2022.

He signed with the Royals last year and played for their Double-A squad, hitting 19 home runs while walking in 14.5% of his plate appearances, though also striking out at a 32.4% clip. He finished the year with a batting line of .252/.373/.439, translating to a wRC+ of 112.

He suited up for the Australian team in this year’s World Baseball Classic, hitting .300/.391/.600 in five games there. He then returned to the Northwest Arkansas Naturals and has hit .242/.373/.363 so far this year for a wRC+ of 105, walking at a 16.4% clip while striking out 25.5% of the time.

He’s played all four infield positions in his minor league career but has been limited to the corner spots so far this year. The Orioles announced him as a shortstop, though he hasn’t played that position since 2019. He’ll head to the Triple-A level for the first time in his career and give the O’s a bit more non-roster infield depth.

Orioles Recall Cole Irvin

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Left-hander Cole Irvin is back with the Orioles, as the team announced Tuesday that he’s been recalled from Triple-A Norfolk. Right-hander Logan Gillaspie has been optioned to Norfolk in a corresponding move.

Baltimore’s decision to option Irvin to Norfolk came as something of a surprise earlier this season. The Orioles’ acquisition of Irvin was one of just two moves made to fortify the starting rotation over the winter (along with the Kyle Gibson signing), and the team parted with an infield prospect of some note (Darell Hernaiz) in order to acquire him. There’s no getting around how rough Irvin’s start to the season was — 15 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings through three starts — but his track record and the manner in which the O’s acquired him led many to presume he’d have a longer leash to get back on track.

To Irvin’s credit, he’s largely done that in Norfolk. The lefty took the ball five times for the Tides and pitched 31 innings with a sharp 3.19 ERA. His 13.4% strikeout rate is still a red flag, but Irvin also only walked 3.1% of his opponents in Triple-A.

Strikeouts have never been a big part of Irvin’s game anyhow. He’s spent the past two seasons anchoring the Athletics’ rotation in Oakland, making 62 starts with a 4.11 ERA, 16.8% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate. Irvin, who’s averaged 90.9 mph on his fastball in his career, has succeeded more with precision and command than by overpowering his opponents.

The role Irvin will occupy with the O’s this time around hasn’t been formally laid out. Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun tweets that he could provide some length out of the bullpen for the time being, although one would imagine that a return to the starting staff could be in order if Irvin pitches well in a long relief capacity. Baltimore starters have combined for a 5.08 ERA this season, although Irvin’s own struggles weigh into that number. Over the past month, the O’s have used Gibson, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish and top prospect Grayson Rodriguez in the rotation, and that quintet has combined for a more palatable 4.28 mark. Rodriguez (6.51 ERA), Gibson (5.08) and Bradish (4.88) have all posted lackluster bottom-line results in that time.

From a service time vantage point, Irvin’s demotion isn’t likely to change his trajectory. He entered the season with two years, 120 days of big league service time, meaning he needed only 52 days in the Majors to reach three years of service and become arbitration-eligible following the current season. It’s highly likely he’ll hit that mark this year even with a month-long stay in Norfolk. That’ll keep him on pace to become a free agent following the the 2026 season. This is Irvin’s final minor league option year, so the team can technically shuttle him between Norfolk and the Majors throughout the season if they like, but if Irvin can round back into his 2021-22 form he’ll have a clear role on the big league staff.

Luis Torrens Elects Free Agency

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The Orioles announced this afternoon that catcher Luis Torrens had cleared waivers and elected free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to Triple-A.

Torrens, 27, was a prospect in the Yankees organization when the Reds selected him in the 2016-17 offseason’s Rule 5 draft before trading him to the Padres. Torrens made his big league debut with San Diego during the 2017 season and stayed on the roster all year, batting .163/.243/.203 in 139 plate appearances as the club’s back up catcher. Torrens would spend the entire 2018 season and most of 2019 in the minors before returning to a regular role with the Padres in 2020. Torrens slashed .273/.333/.364 in 7 games during the shortened 2020 season with San Diego before he was traded to Seattle as part of the deal that brought Austin Nola to the Padres.

Torrens would stay with the Mariners through the end of the 2022 season, ultimately batting .239/.297/.388, good for a wRC+ of 93, over 609 plate appearances for the club before Seattle non-tendered him this past November. Torrens went on to sign a minor league deal with the Cubs, making the club’s Opening Day roster as a third catcher. Torrens stepped to the plate just 22 times in Chicago, however, prior to being designated for assignment and traded to the Orioles. He ultimately did not make it into a game for Baltimore before the club decided to DFA him as well.

Overall, Torrens has been a 92 wRC+ hitter since the end of the 2017 season, a perfectly solid mark for a catcher. As Torrens re-enters free agency, he figures to be an attractive option for multiple teams as catching depth, leaving him likely to latch on with another club in short order. In particular, the Angels are known to have explored catching additions recently as the club relies on Matt Thaiss and Chris Okey behind the plate with each of Max Stassi, Logan O’Hoppe, and Chad Wallach currently on the injured list.

Orioles Notes: Urias, Givens, Rodriguez

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The Orioles will be without infielder Ramon Urias for another 2-3 weeks, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Roch Kubatko of MASN). Urias was placed on the IL during the week with a hamstring strain, and it appears he’ll be out a little longer than the minimum stint.

Urias was enjoying a productive start to the season, compiling a .278/.375/.381 line with a single home run over 112 plate appearances. He’s spent the majority of his time manning third this season, and defensive metrics haven’t loved his work there, with Outs Above Average marking him at -5 and Defensive Runs Saved at -3. It’s been a better story at second, with Urias worth 3 DRS at that spot.

One player the Orioles should be able to call on soon is Mychal Givens, with Hyde saying (via Jake Rill of MLB.com) that he’s “pretty close” to a return. Givens has made five relief appearances on a rehab stint in Double-A, and there’s a chance he makes one more appearance in the minor league before being activated.

Givens returned to Baltimore on a one-year, $5MM deal in the winter, but exited a spring game with a knee injury and is yet to make his season debut. He last appeared for the Orioles in 2020 when he was a quality late-inning relief option. The numbers have dropped off a bit since, but he still turned in a solid season last year between time with the Cubs and Mets, working to a 3.38 ERA over 59 1/3 innings.

The backend of the Orioles bullpen has been a strength this season, with Felix Bautista, Yennier Cano and Bryan Baker all sporting ERAs south of 2. The hope will certainly be that Givens can provide important relief innings in the future, but the strength of that trio allows them a bit of flexibility to ease the veteran back into the bullpen as he gets up to speed.

Taking a look at the rotation, and Hyde adds (via Kubatko) that the team hasn’t put a hard cap on top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez’ innings this season. The 23-year-old has made seven big league starts so far, working to a 5.08 ERA. A lot of the damage done there was in his first three outings, and Rodriguez has been sporting a far healthier 3.72 ERA over his past four starts, which includes getting rocked for six earned runs in Kansas City, so he does appear to be settling in nicely at the highest level.

In any case, while there’s no hard innings limit, the Orioles would surely be keeping an eye on things. Rodriguez pitched 75 2/3 innings last year, and 103 innings in 2021 (his career high). He’s at 33 1/3 innings so far this season, but it makes sense that the Orioles might start get a little more cautious as he approaches his career highs. It’s a tricky situation for the Orioles to navigate with the team 25-13 and in the thick of a competitive AL East division race, particularly with Rodriguez pitching nicely in his last handful of starts, so it’ll be interesting to see how far the Orioles are willing to push Rodriguez as the season rolls on.

Orioles’ Terrin Vavra Taking Catching Drills To Expand Versatility

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The Orioles recalled utility player Terrin Vavra from Triple-A Norfolk earlier in the week. Vavra has MLB experience at second base and in both corner outfield spots, so it was clear he’d add some defensive flexibility to the Baltimore bench, but he’s expanding his versatility in an interesting way.

As Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes, the Orioles have experimented with Vavra as a possible emergency catcher. He appeared behind the plate twice with Norolk during his most recent optional assignment, logging four combined innings. Vavra didn’t start any games — the Tides deployed him only in mop-up work — but it’s possible he eventually logs time behind the dish a little more frequently.

Kubatko notes the O’s have considered giving Vavra some catching time since last year. He did some work there in Spring Training drills and the Minnesota product tells Kubatko he’d caught some offseason bullpen sessions from Dodger reliever J.P. Feyereisen (who lives near Vavra over the winter). The four innings with the Tides marked his first game action behind the dish since high school, however.

The O’s aren’t going to throw Vavra into an important catching role out of the gate. Baltimore has one of the sport’s top backstops in Adley Rutschman, while veteran James McCann is on hand as the backup. The O’s don’t have any other catchers on the 40-man roster, though Luis Torrens is presently in DFA limbo. Manager Brandon Hyde confirmed it’d take an emergency situation, presumably injury substitutions from the top two backstops, for Vavra to log any MLB time there in the short term. The 25-year-old is clearly amenable to working on the position in an effort to increase his value off the bench over the longer haul.

A left-handed hitter, Vavra has tallied 31 MLB plate appearances this year. He’s up to 134 trips to the dish in his career, posting a .252/.333/.313 batting line with one home run. The former third round draftee has walked in a quality 11.2% of his plate appearances against a decent 20.1% strikeout rate.

Orioles Designate Luis Torrens For Assignment, Recall Drew Rom

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The Orioles announced a series of roster moves today, recalling left-hander Drew Rom, infielder/outfielder Ryan O’Hearn and infielder Terrin Vavra from Triple-A Norfolk. In corresponding moves, infielder Ramón Urías was placed on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain, left-hander Keegan Akin was optioned to Norfolk and catcher Luis Torrens was designated for assignment.

Torrens, 27, was acquired from the Cubs less than a week ago and was a bit of a curious fit on Baltimore’s roster. They already had Adley Rutschman and James McCann forming their catching duo and Torrens was out of options, meaning he couldn’t be sent down to the minors. Now Torrens has been cut from the roster without even getting into a game as an Oriole, just a few days after Baltimore sent cash to Chicago in order to acquire him.

The Orioles are no strangers to acquiring veteran depth and almost immediately designating that player for assignment, in hopes of successfully passing him through waivers and retaining him in Triple-A. They’ve done this frequently over the past year, with the aforementioned O’Hearn a prime example. First baseman Lewin Diaz and catcher Anthony Bemboom have also fallen under this category, and the O’s tried to do the same with outfielder Jake Cave but lost him when the Phillies claimed him off waivers.

The 26-year-old Torrens is a career .227/.289/.352 hitter in 799 Major League plate appearances between the Padres, Mariners and Cubs. He’s connected on 19 home runs, fanned at a 26% clip and drawn a walk in 7.8% of those trips to the plate. He regularly made contact during his three-year run with Seattle, evidenced by a 91 mph average exit velocity and hefty 45.7% hard-hit rate, but that quality contact didn’t necessarily translate into production.

Defensively, Torrens has drawn below-average grades from Defensive Runs Saved and most pitch-framing metrics. He has a below-average 21.7% caught-stealing rate in his career but did throw out nine of 28 attempted thieves (32.1%) as recently as last season. The O’s will have a week to trade him or attempt to pass him through waivers, which seems like the more probable path they’ll tread, based on their history with this sort of move.

As for Rom, this is his first ascension to the Major League level. He’ll make his debut whenever he takes the mound for the first time. The 23-year-old southpaw, a fourth-round pick in 2018, has pitched exclusively out of the rotation so far in Norfolk, working 31 1/3 innings with a 2.87 ERA to go along with impressive strikeout (24.6%), walk (7.7%) and ground-ball (55.4%) rates on the year.

While Rom isn’t considered to be one of the Orioles’ top overall prospect, he is considered one of the best pitching prospects in a system that skews more toward position players than arms. MLB.com ranks Rom 19th among Baltimore prospects but sixth-best among the team’s minor league pitchers; it’s a similar story at Baseball America, where he’s 25th overall but ninth among their minor league hurlers. He doesn’t throw particularly hard, sitting in the low 90s with his heater, but has typically posted better-than-average strikeout and ground-ball rates. Rom has more than held his own against left-handed opponents in his minor league career but has been far more hittable when facing righties.

Orioles Outright Joey Krehbiel

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The Orioles announced this evening that reliever Joey Krehbiel has gone unclaimed on waivers. The right-hander accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Norfolk and will stick with the organization.

Krehbiel has spent the entire 2023 campaign in Norfolk on an optional assignment. He’s come out of the bullpen nine times for the Tides, throwing nine innings of two-run ball. While that’s impressive on the surface, the 6’3″ hurler has walked seven batters and hit another. That’s eight free passes out of 37 hitters (21.6%) compared to just six strikeouts. Baltimore took Krehbiel off the 40-man roster last week as the corresponding move for acquiring catcher Luis Torrens from the Cubs.

While Krehbiel hasn’t pitched in the bigs this season, he logged a good chunk of relief work for Baltimore last year. Manager Brandon Hyde tabbed him 56 times, in which Khrebiel threw 57 2/3 innings with a 3.90 ERA. His 18.4% strikeout rate was a few points below average but he kept the free passes to a solid 7.4% clip and was a generally serviceable middle reliever.

Krehbiel also went unclaimed on waivers while a member of the Diamondbacks back in 2019. His second outright gave him the right to explore minor league free agency but he’s elected to bypass the open market. He’ll try to rediscover last year’s command and reestablish himself on the 40-man roster. If the Orioles don’t reselect his contract by the end of the season, he’d hit free agency at the start of the winter.

Baltimore’s Shortstop Is Making Strides

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Jorge Mateo was once one of the top prospects in baseball. An international signing of the Yankees out of the Dominican Republic in 2012, he showed obvious natural talent with blazing speed that allowed him to be valuable on the basepaths and on defense. In 2015, between Single-A and High-A, he stole 82 bases in 111 games. He only hit two home runs in that time but ran up a .278 batting average. His bat was generally considered the least polished part of his game, but he seemed to have a chance at being an all-around contributor in the future. Baseball America ranked him the #1 prospect in the Yankees’ system going into 2016 and #26 in the entire league.

In the years to come, however, his stock would fade as the approach at the plate didn’t seem to develop as hoped. He returned to High-A in 2016 and hit eight home runs but his batting average slipped to .254. Since he only walked in 6.5% of his plate appearances, his on-base percentage was a meager .306. In 2017, at High-A yet again, his walk rate dipped to 5.4% and his strikeout rate climbed from a decent 21.3% to a concerning 26.6%. That helped his batting average drop to .240 and his OBP to .288. He finally got bumped to Double-A and showed some positive strides, walking at a 10.7% clip in 30 games there, leading to a .300 batting average and .381 OBP. The Yanks then included him as one one of the three youngsters they sent to the Athletics in the deadline deal that brought Sonny Gray to the Bronx, alongside Dustin Fowler and James Kaprielian.

Though Mateo finished 2017 strong with his new organization, the concerns about his offense would be renewed the following year. Moved to Triple-A in 2018, he drew free passes in just 5.7% of his plate appearances while getting punched out in 27.3% of them. His .230/.280/.353 batting line led to a wRC+ of just 62. Back to Triple-A in 2019, he had a power breakout when he launched 19 home runs in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but he still walked at just a 5.1% clip and struck out 25.6% of the time.

Going into 2020, Mateo was out of options and still hadn’t made his major league debut. The A’s seemingly had little interest in giving him an active roster spot at that time. Transactions were frozen in March of 2020 when the pandemic put everything on pause, but once the freeze was lifted in June, the very first transaction in the league was Mateo getting flipped to the Padres for a player to be named later. That player was later reported to be outfield prospect Junior Perez.

The Padres kept Mateo on the roster in 2020 but didn’t hand him a regular role, giving him just 28 plate appearances over 22 games. The results weren’t encouraging in that brief time, as he walked in 3.6% of those trips to the plate and struck out in 39.3% of them. He managed to stick on the roster into the next season with the club still valuing his speed and defense, but he walked in just 2.2% of his plate appearances with the Friars in 2021 and struck out at a 29% clip, ultimately getting designated for assignment in August. The rebuilding Orioles put in a claim and put Mateo into 32 games but he finished the year on the injured list due to right lumbar inflammation.

Mateo was exactly the right kind of player for the O’s, who had been terrible for five years at that point and were still waiting for their top prospects to arrive. They could install him as a placeholder until the kids showed up and see if he did anything with the opportunity, with essentially nothing to lose if he failed. They made Mateo their everyday shortstop in 2022 and he showed that he could be a valuable player even with a poor performance at the plate. He did hit 13 home runs last year but the discipline issues were still there. He walked at just a 5.1% clip and was punched out in 27.6% of his appearances. He finished the year with a .221/.267/.379 batting line and 82 wRC+, indicating he was 18% below league average. However, he was on base enough to steal 35 bases. He also earned stellar grades for his glovework at short, including 14 Defensive Runs Saved, 11 Outs Above Average and a 7.4 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating, finishing in the top five among shortstops in each of those categories. The Fielding Bible Awards ranked him as the top shortstop in the league. FanGraphs valued Mateo’s season as being worth 2.7 wins above replacement, even with the subpar offense, while Baseball Reference gave him 3.4.

The O’s received some trade interest in Mateo over the winter, with clubs seemingly intrigued by how he could benefit from this year’s rule changes. The limits on pickoffs and defensive shifts were designed to encourage the exact kind of player that Mateo is, with plenty of speed and athleticism to showcase if given the chance. That appears to have proven true as he’s already swiped 12 bags this year, but Mateo has also seemingly made incredible progress with his long-standing issues at the plate. His 6.7% walk rate is still below league average but an improvement compared to his own track record. Meanwhile, he has struck out in just 20% of his plate appearances so far this year, a few ticks better than league average and far better than anything he had done in recent years.

Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner recently spoke to Mateo and co-hitting coach Matt Borgschulte about how they were going for a simplified approach at the plate this year, allowing Mateo to avoid chasing breaking balls so much, which seems to be working. Mateo’s swing rate on pitches outside the zone is 33.9% this year, which is still a bit above the 2023 league average of 31.4% but a big drop from the 39.4% he had last year. He’s also already hit six home runs, almost halfway to last year’s tally of 13. His .304/.353/.565 batting line amounts to an incredible 149 wRC+.

His .328 batting average on balls in play is above this year’s .298 league average, which could perhaps point to some luck-based regression. But it stands to reason that he would have an above-average BABIP since his elite speed allows him to beat out more grounders than other hitters. His new approach also seems to helping him in terms of batted ball metrics so far. His 44.7% hard hit rate is almost 12 points above last year’s 32.9% rate. His 86.9 mph average exit velocity from last year is now 90.1 mph in 2023.

This is all still a sample size of 105 plate appearances in 29 games and it’s probably best not to suddenly decree that Mateo is one of the best hitters in the league. Baseball is a game of adjustments and opposing teams will take notice of his new approach at the plate and alter their plan of attack, which will leave Mateo responsible for reacting to that. Nonetheless, it’s still an incredibly encouraging development since Mateo showed last year that he could be a solid everyday contributor with poor offense. Even if he regresses and ultimately settles somewhere in between this year’s roaring start and last year’s showing, that still makes him a very valuable player.

It’s a great development for the O’s as well, though it may lead to some challenging decisions down the road. Many of the club’s notable prospects are potential future shortstops, including Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg and Jackson Holliday. Gunnar Henderson was once seen as the club’s shortstop of the future but has largely been bumped to third base by Mateo’s breakout. It seems likely that, at some point, there will be some kind of infield logjam that needs clearing out.

But that’s the kind of problem that teams dream about, especially coming out of a rebuild. Some of these players could be included in trades that fortify a weaker part of the club’s roster, such as their starting rotation. Mateo already received some trade interest and has likely only increased his value in that market with his hot start this year. Since he’s been in the big leagues since the start of 2020, he came into this season with exactly three years of service time, putting him on track for free agency after 2025. He qualified for arbitration for the first time this past winter, agreeing with the club on a $2MM salary, and will be able to get further raises in the next two winters.

Despite all of those twists and turns with the Yankees, A’s, Padres and now Orioles, Mateo is still just 27 years old, turning 28 next month, meaning he’s set to hit the open market just a few months after his 30th birthday. There would surely be plenty of interest if the O’s market the next two and a half years of a shortstop with a high floor who is seemingly pushing his ceiling up. But the club is right in the mix of the playoff race, currently 22-12 in the early going, seeming more like a legitimate contender as the days go by. If they can keep that up through July, it would make more sense to keep Mateo while he’s thriving and perhaps consider including one of their prospects in a trade instead. It remains to be seen how it will play out, but for now, it seems possible that both Mateo and the O’s are benefitting from a breakout that was a dream a decade ago and seemed dead until very recently.

Matt Harvey Announces Retirement

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Former All-Star right-hander Matt Harvey took to instagram this morning to announce his retirement. “I have to say this is my time to say thank you, and goodbye.” Harvey writes, “To the fans, and most importantly the NY Mets fans: you made a dream come true for me. A dream I could have never thought to come true. Who would have thought a kid from Mystic, CT would be able to play in the greatest city in the world, his hometown. You are forever embedded in my heart.”

The seventh overall pick in the 2010 draft, Harvey was selected by the Mets and made his debut during the 2012 campaign. During that ten start cup of coffee in 2012, Harvey pitched to a sterling 2.73 ERA (140 ERA+) with a 3.30 FIP, but that was just a taste of what was to come, as the following season ended up being the best of Harvey’s career by a wide margin.

In 178 1/3 innings of work in 2013, Harvey posted a phenomenal 2.27 ERA (157 ERA+) with a league-leading 2.01 FIP. He struck out 27.7% of batters he faced that season while walking just 4.5%. That performance not only earned him the lone All-Star appearance of his career, but a top four finish in Cy Young Award voting. Unfortunately, Harvey’s phenomenal year was cut short when he required Tommy John surgery, missing the end of the 2013 campaign and the entirety of 2014 while rehabbing.

He returned to the mound in 2015 with another strong season, posting a 2.71 ERA and 3.05 FIP over 189 1/3 innings of work in the regular season. Harvey went on to pitch for the Mets during the postseason, posting a 3.04 ERA in 26 2/3 innings of work as the Mets advanced past the Dodgers and the Cubs to face the Royals in the World Series.

Harvey’s injury woes would return in 2016, however, as Harvey struggled to an uncharacteristic 4.86 ERA in 92 2/3 innings of work before being shut down for the season in July to undergo surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. Following the procedure, Harvey was never quite the same pitcher, as he struggled both in terms of results and to stay on the field. He posted a 6.15 ERA in 446 2/3 innings of work following his 2016 surgery.

Designated for assignment by the Mets early in the 2018 season, he would go on to pitch for the Reds, Angels, Royals, and Orioles before serving a 60-game suspension for “participating in the distribution of a prohibited Drug of Abuse in violation of Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.” The suspension came after Harvey testified in the trial of former communications director of the Angels Eric Kay, who was convicted of distributing fentanyl that resulted in the death of former pitcher Tyler Skaggs. During the trial, Harvey testified that he had provided Skaggs with Percocet pills.

Following his suspension, Harvey returned to the mound in the minor leagues, posting a 3.71 ERA in 70 1/3 innings. Harvey then pitched for Team Italy during the World Baseball Classic this spring, where he posted a 1.29 ERA in seven innings of work over two starts, leaving his baseball career on a high note.

All in all, Harvey ends his career with a 4.42 ERA in 966 1/3 innings with 50 wins and 867 strikeouts. MLBTR wishes Harvey the best as he transitions in whatever comes next following his playing career.

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