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Will Gerrit Cole Get To Free Agency?

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For most of the season, it has seemed quite unlikely that Gerrit Cole would be part of next year's free agent class. The defending AL Cy Young winner has an opt-out clause after this season, but the deal is structured in such a way that makes it difficult for him to get to the market.

This is year five of his nine-year, $324MM free agent pact. Cole's dominant first four seasons in the Bronx have already established him as one of the best top-of-the-market signings in recent history. The deal allows Cole to opt out of the remaining four years and $144MM after this season. The Yankees could then void the opt-out by triggering a $36MM club option covering the 2029 campaign. In the aftermath of Cole's first Cy Young, it was fair to presume the right-hander would opt out, only for New York to exercise the '29 option. Cole's agent Scott Boras suggested as much last December. That's no longer a lock.

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Twins Claim Michael Tonkin

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The Yankees announced that right-hander Michael Tonkin has been claimed off waivers by the Twins. The Yanks had designated him for assignment in recent days. The Twins will need to make a corresponding move to open a 40-man roster spot, as well as an active roster spot once Tonkin reports to the club. Dan Hayes of The Athletic relayed news of the claim on X prior to the official transaction.

Tonkin, 34, was originally a Twins draftee (30th round, 2008) who reached the majors with Minnesota in 2013 but quickly descended into journeyman status. After spending the 2008-17 seasons in the Twins’ system — and pitching in the majors each year from 2013-17 — Tonkin spent the 2018 season with Japan’s Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters. He returned stateside in 2019 and has spent time with the Brewers, D-backs, Braves, Mets and Yankees organizations in addition to stints in the Atlantic League and in the Mexican League.

After a five-year absence, Tonkin returned to the majors with the Braves last year and pitched 80 solid innings out of their bullpen. This season, he’s bounced between the Mets, Yankees and Twins via waivers. This’ll be his second stint of the current season in Minnesota. He’ll hope for better results than he had in his first, when he pitched two innings and yielded two runs.

Tonkin seems to have found something during his run with the Yankees, however. After being claimed off waivers out of the Twins organization, he spent three months with the Yankees and pitched to a sharp 3.38 ERA with a 24.6% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate in 56 innings (39 total appearances). The Yankees used him primarily in low-leverage, multi-inning spots — and Tonkin took to the role quite nicely. He’d hit a rough patch over the past five weeks though, yielding 15 earned runs in his past 19 1/3 innings.

The Twins have shuffled up their bullpen mix more than they’d hoped this season, in part due to injuries. Minnesota just recently designated veteran lefty Steven Okert for assignment and passed him through waivers. Tonkin will give them a fresh arm to replace Okert. He’ll join a talented but top-heavy Twins bullpen that’s headlined by one of the game’s best one-two punches: Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax.

Yankees Claim Duke Ellis

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The Yankees announced that they have claimed outfielder Duke Ellis off waivers from the Mariners. The latter club designated him for assignment in recent days. To open a 40-man spot, right-hander Ian Hamilton was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

Ellis, 26, is known for his standout speed. The White Sox briefly called him up earlier this year and he stole four bases in four tries. In 273 minor league games, he has stolen 134 bases while only being caught 18 times.

His work at the plate hasn’t as impressive. He has hit .238/.325/.339 in his minor league career, production which translates to an 85 wRC+, indicating he’s been 15% below league average. Still, the idea of having a speedy outfielder on the bench has been enough for Ellis to garner plenty of interest. After his brief look with the White Sox earlier this year, he has gone to the Mets, the Mariners and now the Yankees via waiver claims.

Finding a roster spot for such a specific skill set can be tricky but it’s possible that the Yankees will find room for Ellis as rosters expand next week, or perhaps in the playoffs where extra off-days lead to a club requiring fewer pitchers. A speedster such as Ellis could be a difference maker in a close game, particularly in the era of the free runner in extra innings. Ellis has a full slate of options and just a few days of service time.

Yankees Sign Phil Bickford, Designate Michael Tonkin

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The Yankees announced that Phil Bickford has rejoined the team on a new Major League contract, and the veteran righty has been selected to the club’s active roster.  In the corresponding move, right-hander Michael Tonkin was designated for assignment.

Bickford first joined the Yankees on a minor league deal back in April, and after that contract was selected to the big league roster in late June, Bickford posted an ungainly 14.40 ERA in five innings over five appearances before New York designated him for assignment.  Upon clearing waivers in July, Bickford opted for free agency rather than accepting an outright assignment to Triple-A, and he’ll now head back to the Bronx after a little less than eight weeks on the open market.

A veteran of five Major League seasons, Bickford’s high point was the 2.81 ERA he posted over 51 1/3 relief innings for the Brewers and Dodger in 2021.  Since that season, Bickford has a 5.20 ERA in 133 1/3 innings with the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees, along with a 25.3% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate.

There isn’t much to like about Bickford’s recent MLB track record, but he did pitch quite well at the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate this season, so the club had enough comfort in Bickford to sign him to a guaranteed deal.  Bickford is out of minor league options, and thus would have to be designated for assignment if New York wanted to move him down to Triple-A again.

On the surface, replacing Tonkin with Bickford seems like a curious move since Tonkin has a 3.38 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, and 9.1% walk rate in 56 relief innings for the New York bullpen this season.  While the overall numbers are solid, however, Tonkin has a 9.39 ERA in his last 7 2/3 innings, and has been charged with multiple runs in three of his last five appearances.  This includes two runs allowed over 1 2/3 innings in yesterday’s 9-2 Yankees loss to the Rockies, so today’s transaction could be a way to get Bickford’s fresher arm into the bullpen.

Tonkin is also out of minor league options, which relates to the transactional carousel that has largely defined his 2024 season.  He signed a $1MM split contract with the Mets in the offsesason, then went to the Twins (his original MLB team) after being DFA’ed in April, but was claimed back by the Mets shortly thereafter when Minnesota also designated Tonkin.  He hit the waiver wire yet again less than a week later and was claimed by the Yankees, and Tonkin then achieved some stability with an extended stretch of time in the Bronx bullpen before now again entering DFA limbo.  If he clears waivers, Tonkin can elect free agency in lieu of accepting an outright assignment to Triple-A, but he would have to give up the remainder of his guaranteed salary.

Yankees Reinstate Jazz Chisholm

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August 23: The Yankees have now made it official by announcing Chisholm’s reinstatement.

August 22: The Yankees will activate Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the injured list tomorrow, reports Andy Martino of SNY (on X). New York optioned Oswald Peraza back to Triple-A this evening to open an active roster spot.

It’s a remarkably quick turnaround. Chisholm’s season initially looked as if it could be in jeopardy when he damaged the UCL in his left (non-throwing elbow) a couple weeks ago. The Yankees quickly made clear they expected Chisholm back this year, although they didn’t anticipate this level of progress. As recently as last Friday, New York’s big deadline acquisition was reportedly targeting a return at some point in September.

Barring a last-minute change of plans, Chisholm will instead get back on the diamond after a minimal stint. He’ll draw back in at third base, where Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera have split the work over the last week and a half. That could be a significant boost to the New York lineup. Chisholm had been on an absolute tear early in his tenure in the Bronx. He already has seven homers with a .316/.361/.702 slash in 14 games as a Yankee.

Chisholm isn’t the only player who should soon return to the Yankee infield. Anthony Rizzo and Jon Berti are each scheduled to begin rehab assignments in the next few days (per the MLB.com injury tracker). Berti is headed to Double-A Somerset tomorrow; Rizzo is expected to join him there at some point this weekend. Position players can spend up to 20 days on a minor league rehab assignment.

Both Berti and Rizzo are on the 60-day injured list and have been out for multiple months. The former has only played in 17 games since the Yankees acquired him from Miami in a trade around Opening Day. Berti has been out since late May after suffering a significant strain in his left calf. Rizzo broke his right arm in a collision with Red Sox pitcher Brennan Bernardino in mid-June.

The Yankees called up 25-year-old Ben Rice to handle the majority of the first base work after that. Rice has struggled in his first look at MLB pitching, running a .180/.279/.374 slash. The rookie had a three-homer game against Boston last month but only has four longballs in his other 44 contests.

Yankees Place Luis Gil On Injured List

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3:05pm: Manager Aaron Boone says that Gil’s back injury is minor and they hope to have him back after the 15-day minimum, per Brendan Kuty of The Athletic on X.

2:30pm: The Yankees announced today that right-hander Luis Gil has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a lower back strain. Fellow right Will Warren was recalled from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in a corresponding move.

Gil started last night’s game against the Guardians but lasted just three innings and 78 pitches before he was removed. The club later announced that he departed with low back tightness, per Chris Kirschner of The Athletic on X. The club hasn’t provided any updates today about how long they expect Gil to be out, but it seems they expect him to miss at least a couple of weeks, based on this IL placement.

That will interrupt an excellent rookie season for the right-hander, as he has made 24 starts with a 3.39 earned run average. His 12.6% walk rate is on the high side but he’s been able to counteract that with a strong 27.5% strikeout rate.

Gil may have needed a breather at some point anyway, since he is already pushing into uncharted personal territory in terms of workload. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2022, missing most of that season as well as 2023. Prior to that, his career high in terms of innings was 108 2/3 in 2021, between the majors and the minors.

Here in 2024, he’s already logged 124 2/3 frames. That means he’s well into personal-high territory, on the heels of two mostly lost seasons. Even though his results have been strong, the Yankees may have been pressed to think about lightening his load somehow, either by optioning him to the minors or transferring him to the bullpen.

The IL stint could perhaps act as that breather, as long as it’s not a terribly significant injury. If he just needs a few weeks on the shelf, perhaps that will allow him to recharge for the stretch run and the postseason.

In the meantime, the Yanks will be down another man in the rotation that’s missing a few guys. Gil will join Clarke Schmidt, JT Brubaker and Cody Poteet on the IL, though some of those guys could be back in the mix soon. Poteet began a rehab assignment last night and Schmidt is expected to start one on Friday, per Kirschner on X.

For now, the rotation consists of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman, with Warren presumably stepping in to replace Gil. Despite the Yankees having a strong record of 73-53 this year, they haven’t had amazing results out of that group. Stroman’s 3.82 ERA is the best of the bunch and he’s probably lucky to have that number. His 16.8% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 48.1% ground ball rate are all on pace to be the worst of his career. Cole, Rodón and Cortes each have ERAs of 4.15 or higher. Warren has an 8.59 ERA in his first three major league starts.

The IL placement of Gil has the potential to have ripple effects beyond the 2024 Yankees. He has been in the conversation for American League Rookie of the Year and this absence might push him back in the race. ROY voting now has impacts for clubs and players as certain top prospects can net their clubs an extra draft pick if they are promoted to the Opening Day roster and win the award, while other guys can earn themselves a full year of service time even if they haven’t been up all year.

Gil himself isn’t PPI eligible since he wasn’t a top prospect coming into the year but guys like Colton Cowser and Austin Wells are eligible for the prospect promotion incentive and perhaps now have a greater chance of netting their clubs a draft pick.

Cubs Release Hector Neris

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The Cubs are releasing veteran reliever Hector Neris, reports ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. The team already passed Neris through waivers without making a formal announcement of the move. He went unclaimed. Neris’ spot on the 40-man roster will be filled by right-hander Jack Neely, whose contract is being selected from Triple-A Iowa. Neely was acquired from the Yankees in the deadline trade sending Mark Leiter Jr. to the Bronx.

Neris, 35, was signed to a one-year, $9MM contract over the winter and has had an up-and-down season in what’ll now be his lone year with the Cubs. His 3.89 earned run average is sound, but Neris has blown five of 25 save situations on the season while sporting career-worst strikeout and walk rates of 23.1% and 13.3%, respectively.

The more prominent factor in the decision to release the right-hander, however, could be a vesting player option that would’ve kicked in had Neris reached 60 appearances or 45 games finished on the season. He’s only appeared in 46 games right now and finished a game 33 times. Neris thus would’ve needed to pitch in 14 of Chicago’s remaining 37 games — a 37% usage rate — or recorded the final out in 12 of them, but if he’d done so he’d have secured a $9MM player option for the upcoming season. Given his shaky performance, the Cubs very likely weren’t interested in allowing that provision to be reached.

While Neris clearly hasn’t had his best season, he’s only a year removed from a sparkling 1.71 ERA in 68 1/3 frames for the Astros. That mark is also deceptive, as benefited from a .219 average on balls in play and 90.5% strand rate that combined to tamp down his earned run average. Metrics like FIP (3.83) and SIERA (3.89) were more bearish, but between Neris’ 28.2% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate, he still had the makings of a solid all-around season. More broadly, Neris’ track record from 2019-23 on the whole is quite impressive. He pitched 297 1/3 innings between the Phillies and Astros, combining for a 3.12 ERA (3.33 SIERA), 30.2% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate, 40.1% grounder rate, 0.97 HR/9, 73 holds and 50 saves.

With Neris returning to the open market, he’ll now be available for any team to sign for the remainder of the season. He’ll only cost his new club the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster/injured list. That sum would be subtracted from what the Cubs are paying him, but Chicago remains on the hook for the bulk of his contract regardless. And, so long as Neris signs with a new organization before Sept. 1 — even on a minor league deal — he can be eligible for that team’s postseason roster. (If he’s not on the 40-man at the time, he’d technically need to be a replacement for an injured player on the postseason roster, but such exceptions happen multiple times quite literally every season.)

As for Neely, he’ll be making his big league debut the first time he takes the mound in a Cubs uniform. The 24-year-old righty was the Yankees’ 11th-round pick in 2021 and has emerged as a legitimate bullpen prospect, brandishing a prototypical fastball/slider combination that’s helped him pitch to a combined 2.42 ERA with a whopping 38% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk rate in 48 1/3 innings across the Double-A and Triple-A levels with the Cubs and Yanks this year.

MLB.com ranks Neely 18th among Chicago farmhands, while FanGraphs pegs him 22nd. The towering 6’8″, 245-pound Neely sits around 95 mph with his heater — and likely looks faster than that, given the extension his massive frame generates. FanGraphs credits him with a plus (60-grade) slider, while MLB.com’s report tabs it as a true plus-plus (70-grade) pitch — noting the massive whiff and chase rates that Neely generated on the pitch late in the 2023 season.

Neely won’t gain a full year of big league service in 2024, of course, so the Cubs will control him for at least six full seasons following the current campaign. Even if he’s in the majors for good, Neely can’t be arbitration-eligible until the 2027-28 offseason and wouldn’t hit free agency until the 2030-31 offseason. His contract is only just now being selected to the 40-man roster, however, meaning he’ll likely retain a full slate of three minor league option years beyond the current season. As such, future optional assignments could impact his arbitration and free agent timelines. For now, he’ll simply focus on carrying his excellent upper-minors work over to the big leagues and establishing himself as a credible major league bullpen weapon.

Riley Greene, Jasson Dominguez Added As 27th Men For Little League Classic

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The Yankees and Tigers square off in Williamsport tonight for the Little League Classic, and due to the special nature of the game, both clubs are allowed to add a 27th player to their active rosters.  The two teams have each addressed this extra roster spot in a particularly noteworthy way, as the Yankees called up star prospect Jasson Dominguez from Triple-A and the Tigers activated outfielder Riley Greene from the 10-day injured list.

While Dominguez is in tonight’s starting lineup, it looks like it’ll just be a cup of coffee in the majors for the 21-year-old, as Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) that Dominguez will be returned to Triple-A after the game.  Obviously plans could change in the event of an injury, but for now, it looks like the Yankees are just utilizing the right-hitting Dominguez to spell lefty-swinging Alex Verdugo in left field since southpaw Tarik Skubal is starting for Detroit.

Tonight will mark Dominguez’s first MLB game since last September, when he hit .258/.303/.677 with four homers in his first 33 plate appearances in the big leagues.  However, just as “the Martian” appeared to be living up to the hype, he had to undergo Tommy John surgery, which kept him on the shelf until he returned for a rehab assignment in single-A ball in mid-May.  Dominguez quickly moved back up the ladder to Triple-A but then suffered an oblique strain in June that kept him out of action for another six weeks.

Dominguez is hitting .298/.365/.477 with seven homers over his 167 combined PA at three levels of the Yankees’ farm system this season, so while he isn’t dominating minor league pitching, his numbers are still quite solid (especially for a player battling so many injuries).  Under normal circumstances, he would likely be in the majors already if it wasn’t for the crowded nature of New York’s outfield picture.  Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Verdugo are the starting outfield trio, and Giancarlo Stanton has the DH spot on lockdown, leaving little room for Dominguez to find regular playing time.

GM Brian Cashman stated last week that “There’s currently no lane for us to bring him [up].  It’s nice to know he’s there. He’s just knocking rust off and waiting for his opportunity if it comes.”  Tonight’s one-game cameo doesn’t really counter Cashman’s statement, as the team would surely prefer to see Dominguez continue his development with regular reps in Triple-A rather than only sporadic playing time in New York.  It is worth noting that Verdugo has been in a deep slump for over three months now, so as we continue down the stretch to the postseason, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Dominguez promoted to take the lion’s share of work in left field.

Greene last played on July 25, as a right hamstring strain has kept the outfielder sidelined for the better part of a month.  The Tigers don’t need to make a corresponding roster move today because of the 27th man rule, but some kind of roster adjustment will need to be made before Detroit’s next game, on Tuesday against the Cubs.

Now in his third Major League season, Greene has continued to take strides as a budding star for the Tigers, hitting .264/.357/.485 with 17 home runs over 427 PA.  Between this production at the plate and some excellent glovework as Detroit’s primary left fielder, Greene has already generated 2.8 fWAR, and his success was acknowledged with his first All-Star nod.  While the Tigers haven’t yet turned the corner in their rebuild process, Greene certainly looks like a cornerstone player within the club’s future plans.

AL East Notes: Refsnyder, Bichette, Lowe, Coulombe, Trevino

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Rob Refsnyder turns 34 next March, and the utilityman is considering calling it a career after the 2024 season comes to an end.  Speaking with Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, Refsnyder said he is “undecided” about returning for what would be his tenth MLB season, and was even thinking about retirement even before he joined the Red Sox during the 2021-22 offseason.  Once this year is over, Refsnyder said he’ll “take it step by step from there and decide what I do….You can still make a big impact not being in a uniform and it’s a lot easier for your family and their schedule.”

As per the terms of the contract extension Refsnyder signed in June 2023, the Sox hold a $2MM club option ($150K) on his services for 2025.  This option looks like a lock to be exercised if Refsnyder wishes to keep playing, as he has an excellent .298/.384/.472 slash line over 251 plate appearances in part-time duty for the Red Sox this season.  Still, Refsnyder is eager to spend more time with his family, and is perhaps keen to start working towards his longer-term goal of working in a front office.

Other items from around the AL East…

  • Bue Jays manager John Schneider gave MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson and other reporters an update on Bo Bichette, noting that the shortstop has started to increase baseball activities while working out at the Jays’ spring training facility in Dunedin.  A timeline isn’t yet in place this early in Bichette’s recovery from a right calf strain, as the club will monitor his progress in the coming days or weeks before deciding on a possible rehab assignment.   Bichette suffered the calf strain on July 19 in Toronto’s 5-4 loss to the Tigers, continuing an all-around disastrous season that has seen Bichette bat only .223/.276/.321 over 330 plate appearances.  The former All-Star’s struggles are one of several reasons why the Blue Jays are out of the playoff race, and if Bichette isn’t showing progress in relatively short order, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Jays just shut him down for the remainder of the season.
  • 2024 is the last guaranteed season of the six-year, $24MM extension Brandon Lowe signed with the Rays prior to Opening Day 2019, but Tampa still has a pair of club options ($10.5MM with a $1MM buyout for 2025, $11.5MM for 2026 with a $500K buyout) covering Lowe’s immediate future.  “Whether they pick up the option or they don’t, I feel like I’m putting myself in a good position to still be on a team next year,” Lowe told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, but Lowe noted that playing with the Rays “is all I know.  I like it here.  My friends are here.  We have a house here.  It’s comfortable.  I don’t know anything else.  I know this.”  Given how the Rays dealt a number of higher-priced veterans at the deadline, Topkin figures that Lowe’s continued presence on the roster means that the team will exercise the 2025 option and keep Lowe in Tampa Bay for an eighth season.  Lowe is more than doing his part at the plate to sway the Rays’ mind, as he is hitting .248/.330/.488 with 14 homers over 282 PA.
  • Danny Coulombe is “on track” in his rehab process and is aiming to return in late September, the Orioles left-hander told MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko.  Coulombe is on the 60-day IL after undergoing surgery in June to remove bone spurs from his left elbow.  While he is still a few weeks away from getting onto a mound, Coulombe is up to throwing from 90 feet in games of catch.  The Orioles’ bullpen has struggled badly in August, leaving Baltimore in even greater need for whatever the ace setup man can provide whenever he is able to return to action.
  • The Yankees activated catcher Jose Trevino from the 10-day injured list on Friday, and Carlos Narvaez was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Yesterday’s game marked Trevino’s first action since a left quad strain forced him out of the Yankees’ 4-1 win over the Orioles on July 12.  Trevino figures to resume his catching platoon with Austin Wells, though Wells’ hot bat over the last month might have earned him a larger share of the playing time.

Yankees Select Tim Mayza

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The Yankees announced that they have selected the contract of left-hander Tim Mayza. They signed the lefty to a minor league deal after he was released by the Blue Jays last month. They optioned Will Warren after Wednesday’s game and designated Enyel De Los Santos earlier this week, meaning they already had a vacancy on both the active and 40-man rosters.

It’s been a strange year for Mayza, who had a strong run for the Jays before everything seemed to come off the rails this year. From 2017 to 2023, he made 317 appearances for the Jays, despite missing the 2020 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. In that stretch, he allowed 3.47 earned runs per nine innings. He struck out 25.7% of batters faced, walked just 7.8% of opponents and got ground balls on 54.4% of balls in play. He racked up four saves and 77 holds in that period.

But here in 2024, his 35 appearances for the Jays were disastrous, leading to an 8.04 ERA. He surely wasn’t helped by a .367 batting average on balls in play or his 54.8% strand rate, but he also only struck out 13.2% of batters faced.

He was designated for assignment by the Jays at the end of June. Since he had passed five years of service time this year, he earned the right to reject an outright assignment while retaining his $3.59MM salary. The Jays skipped that formality and released him, leaving them on the hook for the rest of that money.

The Yankees signed him to a minor league deal and sent him to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He has since made nine appearances for the RailRiders, allowing two earned runs in 8 1/3 innings. He has struck out eight opponents against three walks.

That will get him another shot in the big leagues, giving manager Aaron Boone a second left-handed option alongside Tim Hill. Now that Mayza has more than five years of service, he can’t be optioned to the minors without his consent. But if he manages to stick around, he can be retained via arbitration for the 2025 season.

For now, it’s a fairly low-risk move, as the Yankees will only have to pay Mayza the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster. That amount will be subtracted from what the Jays pay, which will make a small dent in their competitive balance tax calculation. Last week, Blue Jays president and CEO Mark Shapiro said the Jays were just under the tax line but that the situation was “fluid”.

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