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MLBTR Poll: Grading The Brewers/Padres Trade

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Yesterday, the Brewers and Padres linked up on an interesting four-player swap. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd discussed the players involved in the immediate aftermath of the deal, but it’s worth pondering a little further.

San Diego sent middle infielder Luis Urías and left-hander Eric Lauer to Milwaukee in exchange for outfielder Trent Grisham and right-hander Zach Davies. It’s the rare swap involving four current MLB players, three of whom have yet to even reach arbitration. Unlike many deals where a current contender trades future value to a rebuilding club to upgrade the roster in the short-term, this swap hinges mostly on the talent of the players involved. As Padres GM A.J. Preller put it (via MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell), “sometimes, there are deals because of salary issues. Sometimes, there are deals because someone’s getting toward free agency, because clubs are contending or not contending. In this case, it’s just a good baseball trade.”

For the most part, the deal turns on which of Urías and Grisham one prefers. Each has been a top 50 overall prospect in the past, per Baseball America, but Urías entered 2019 as the more acclaimed of the two. Grisham had a breakout season in the high minors last year, with a cumulative .300/.407/.603 slash in 441 plate appearances between AA and AAA before making his MLB debut in August. Urías, too, mashed in AAA last season (.315/.398/.600 in 339 PA), but scuffled in limited big league action. Grisham was a bit better in his small sample of MLB time, even if a misplay in right field in the NL Wild Card game ended the season on a sour note.

Of course, that one play was not the reason Milwaukee pulled the trigger on this deal, as Brewers GM David Stearns told reporters (including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). On the whole, reviews of Grisham’s defense in the corner outfield tend to be positive, even if, despite 93rd percentile sprint speed, he’s not viewed by many public outlets as a long-term option in center. Urías offers more defensive value as a middle infielder, although reviews tend to be mixed on him at shortstop, where he figures to play in Milwaukee with Keston Hiura locking down the keystone.

It’s a bit tougher to get too excited over the pitchers involved, although both are certainly useful big leaguers. Davies has the stronger bottom line results, with a 3.91 career ERA and an even better 3.55 mark in 159.2 innings in 2019. He’s never posted a 20% strikeout rate or a 10% swinging strike rate in a full season, though, and the soft-tossing contact manager has generally fallen out of favor in today’s game. Lauer’s profile isn’t dramatically different. His strikeout and walk rates are higher than Davies’ but each is lower than average. Lauer, though, hasn’t had the success Davies has had to this point keeping runs off the board. Davies is more expensive ($5MM arbitration projection) and comes with three fewer seasons of team control, but neither hurler figures to threaten either team’s bottom line moving forward.

How would you grade this deal for both teams?

First, Milwaukee..

(poll link for app users)

 

And San Diego…

(poll link for app users)

Padres, Brewers Agree To Four-Player Trade

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2:00pm: The Brewers have formally announced the deal. They’ll also receive a player to be named later or cash from the Padres, per a team press release.

9:57am: The Padres and Brewers have broken open a quiet trade market with an interesting swap of young big leaguers. Outfielder Trent Grisham and righty Zach Davies are heading to San Diego, with second baseman Luis Urias and southpaw Eric Lauer going to Milwaukee in exchange.

This is a rare need-for-need, value-for-value trade. For the Friars, Grisham could pair with Manuel Margot in center field and ultimately move to a corner spot when top prospect Taylor Trammell is ready. Both he and Urias have debuted but not yet accrued a full season of MLB service. Meanwhile, Davies will represent a sturdy rotation piece. He’s projected to earn $5.0MM in his second-to-last season of team control.

On the other side, the Brewers now appear to have a double-play partner for Keston Hiura. Indications are that the club will utilize Urias at shortstop. Whether there’s still room for Orlando Arcia remains to be seen. The 24-year-old Lauer could deliver solid innings for years to come. While he’s not as established as Davies, the southpaw has shown well early in his career and remains under control through the 2024 season.

For the most part, 2019 was a bit of a dream season for Grisham. The former first-rounder finally turned the corner at the plate, raking in the upper minors (.300/.407/.603) to earn his way up to the majors.

Grisham ended up seeing significant time in the big leagues for the postseason-qualifying Brewers. He wasn’t exactly an instant star, but turned in a palatable .231/.328/.410 slash in 183 plate appearances while contributing highly graded defense. Unfortunately, the season ended on a sour note, as Grisham committed a costly error that cemented the Brewers’ Wild Card meltdown.

It feels funny to treat Davies as a secondary piece in this deal; that’s certainly not the case. Still just 26 years of age, he spun 159 2/3 innings of 3.55 ERA ball last year. True, Davies wasn’t exposed often to lineups for a third time. And there’s probably some good fortune embedded in those results. Davies will never be much of a strikeout pitcher, with a career K rate of 6.4 per nine. But he has proven over the years that he can produce good results despite his limitations, with a 3.91 ERA in 614 1/3 career innings.

In Urias, the Brewers see a compelling young hitter that just hasn’t quite found his footing in the majors. He’s just 22 years of age and carries a .305/.403/.511 slash over 887 Triple-A plate appearances. Urias has succeeded largely with his strong plate discipline (108 walks, 172 strikeouts) and excellent bat-to-ball skills. But there’s a bit of pop in the bat as well, as he has 28 long balls during his time at the highest level of the minors.

That said, there are some questions — there’s a reason that Urias has spent so much time at Triple-A while some other Padres players have breezed through and never returned. The initial MLB returns were tepid. Urias owns a .221/.318/.331 batting line in 302 plate appearances in the bigs. It seems reasonable to suppose he’ll improve upon that, but to what extent remains to be seen.

There are also some questions whether Urias can handle the shortstop position with sufficient aplomb at the game’s highest level. He spent the majority of his time in the minors at second base and has graded better there than at short in his limited MLB time at both spots. But the Brew Crew has been willing to rely upon its infield placement to help cover up any range issues.

It’d be easy to lose sight of Lauer here, but he’s a notable asset in his own right. The former first-rounder has thrown 261 2/3 MLB innings over the past two seasons, working to a cumulative 4.40 ERA. Nothing jumps off the page about him — 8.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 38.9% groundball rate, 1.20 HR/9 — but he could bring steady innings at a cheap rate. The Brewers will likely plan to utilize Lauer in a somewhat flexible role to maximize his utility, as they have other hurlers that might not quite warrant traditional starter usage.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link) broke the deal, with Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter) and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link) adding key details.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/23/19

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We’ll use this post to keep track of today’s minor moves…

  • The Brewers signed right-hander Jesus Castillo to a minor-league deal that includes and invite to Major League camp, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. The 24-year-old Venezuelan signed with the Diamondbacks as an international amateur in 2012 and has since spent time in the minors with the Cubs and Angels organizations. Last year, Castillo reached the Double-A level and enjoyed arguably his best season as a professional, splitting time between the bullpen and the starting rotation. in 99 2/3 innings of work with the Angels’ Double-A affiliate in Mobile, Castillo posted a 2.71 ERA while striking out 80 batters. While his strikeout and walk numbers are nothing special, Castillo has done well throughout his minor league career to suppress the long ball: in eight seasons across several levels of the minors, he’s conceded just 0.6 homers per nine innings pitched.
  • The Giants signed former Cubs farmhand Trey McNutt, tweets Matt Daniels, the Giants’ Coordinator of Pitching Sciences. McNutt, 30, signed with the Cubs in 2009 after being drafted in the 32nd round out of Shelton State Community College. He spent some time in the Padres system before two years in the Independent League (2017, 2018). He posted good strikeout rates while throwing 65 innings of 5.12 ERA baseball for the A’s Double-A and Triple-A affiliates in 2019. Daniels tracked McNutt at least through his independent league days, and the Giants’ pitching coordinator seems to believe in the righty’s ability to continue to improve, despite being quite a few years older than most farmhands. Still, after the success of Nick Anderson in Miami and Tampa Bay (whose career tracked a similar path), McNutt’s chances of making his major league debut are far from dead, and a year from now, he could very well be the Merrill Kelly to Anderson’s Miles Mikolas.

Brewers Notes: Grandal, Moose, Rule 5 Draft, Lucas

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The latest on the Brew Crew….

  • Yasmani Grandal is now a member of the White Sox, though the Brewers made “multiple offers” to the free agent catcher, as per reporter Robert Murray (via Twitter).  Milwaukee had natural interest in a reunion given how well Grandal played in 2019, though Chicago’s four-year, $73MM contract was enough to outbid the Brewers.  With Grandal officially no longer an option, catcher becomes perhaps the Brewers’ biggest area of need this winter, as the club will be looking for a solid regular to join in-house options Manny Pina, David Freitas, and Jacob Nottingham.  Grandal, by the way, issued a thank-you to both the Brewers and their fans on his Instagram account today.
  • With Grandal gone, Mike Moustakas is the biggest remaining Brewers free agent.  While Milwaukee would also like to retain Moustakas, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets that the infielder “has considerable interest” from other teams.  The Phillies, Braves, and Rangers are three of the clubs who have been linked to Moustakas in past reports, and it’s fair to imagine that lots of other teams would see a fit for a power hitter who can play second or third base.
  • The Brewers added three players to their 40-man roster yesterday in advance of the deadline for teams to set their rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft.  As you might expect, “these are not 100 percent easy, clear decisions to make on some players,” Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and other reporters.  While Milwaukee has only 36 players on its 40-man, teams often leave spaces open for future additions or other roster maneuvering prior to December 12, when the Rule 5 Draft takes place.  This means that other teams could select some notable Brewers youngsters who weren’t protected, such as right-hander Zack Brown, currently ranked by MLB.com as the third-best prospect in Milwaukee’s farm system.  Brown was quickly ascending up the minor league ladder and was the Brewers’ minor league pitcher of the year in 2018, though his 2019 numbers (5.79 ERA over his first 116 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level) were a step backwards.  Stearns admitted that these struggles “certainly influenced our decision,” though “we still have high hopes for Zack Brown.”  If Brown is chosen, his new team would have to keep him on its Major League roster for the entire 2020 season to gain his permanent rights, or else the team would have to offer Brown back to Milwaukee.
  • Former Marlins infielder Ed Lucas has been hired as the Brewers’ new minor league hitting coordinator, as per Robert Murray (Twitter link).  Lucas’ post-playing career has thus far included three seasons in administrative and development roles with the Phillies and Marlins.  Lucas played for seven different organizations from 2004-16, a career that includes 163 MLB games with Miami in 2013-14.

Brewers Acquire Mark Mathias From Indians

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The Brewers and Indians announced a minor trade Wednesday, with Cleveland sending minor league infielder Mark Mathias to Milwaukee in exchange for minor league catcher Andres Melendez. Milwaukee has selected the contract of Mathias.

Mathias, 25, needed to be added to the 40-man roster in order to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft. The Indians apparently preferred not to commit that 40-man spot to Mathias, prompting today’s swap with the Brewers, who’ll now pick up some new infield depth. The 2015 third-rounder hit .269/.355/.442 with a dozen home runs, 31 doubles, two triples and 13 stolen bases at Triple-A this past season. Mathias is primarily a second baseman and third baseman, but he’s also logged 203 innings at shortstop since being drafted.

Milwaukee signed the now-18-year-old Melendez out of Venezuela back in 2017. He played 36 games with the Brewers’ Rookie-level Arizona affiliate in 2019, hitting .250/.340/.352 with a 30 percent caught-stealing rate behind the plate. Despite being years from the Majors, Melendez was ranked 16th among Brewers farmhands by Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen on their midsesason update of the team’s prospect rankings.

Players Added To 40-Man Roster: National League

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We’re going to see a whole lot of players added to 40-man rosters in advance of tonight’s deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft. We will use this post to track those contract selections from National League teams that are not otherwise covered on the site.

NL West

  • The Dodgers announced that they’ve selected the contracts of right-hander Mitchell White, infielder/outfielder Zach McKinstry and outfielder DJ Peters. Both White and Peters are considered to be among the club’s top 15 prospects. McKinstry isn’t generally ranked inside L.A.’s top 30, but the 24-year-old had a big season between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019 while appearing at six defensive positions (shortstop, second base, third base and all three outfield slots).
  • The Diamondbacks announced that they’ve selected the contracts of right-handers Taylor Widener and Riley Smith as well as the contracts of infielders Andy Young and Wyatt Mathisen. Widener, 24, was one of the organization’s best pitching prospects coming into the season but was blown up for an eye-popping 8.10 ERA in 100 innings. He’s only a year removed from 137 1/3 innings of 2.75 ERA ball and an 11.5 K/9 mark in Double-A, however. Smith, 24, was sharp in Double-A before struggling in Triple-A — like many pitching prospects throughout the league (and with the D-backs in particular). Young, acquired in the Paul Goldschmidt trade last winter, hit 29 homers while playing three infield positions between Double-A and Triple-A. Mathisen, 26 in December, hit .283/.403/.601 in 345 Triple-A plate appearances.
  • The Giants, surprisingly, did not add anyone to their 40-man roster prior to tonight’s deadline.
  • The Rockies selected the contracts of infielder Tyler Nevin, left-hander Ben Bowden and right-handers Ashton Goudeau and Antonio Santos (Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post first reported the news on Twitter). Those four moves will fill the team’s 40-man roster. Of the four, Bowden and Nevin draw the most fanfare. Nevin, the No. 38 pick in the 2015 draft and son of former MLB slugger Phil Nevin, posted deceptively solid numbers in an extremely pitcher-friendly Double-A environment in 2019 (.251/.345/.399 — good for a 122 wRC+). Bowden, a second-round pick in ’16, posted gaudy strikeout numbers but struggled in Triple-A after dominating in Double-A in 2019.
  • The Padres selected outfielder Jorge Ona’s contract and designated outfielder Nick Martini for assignment, as outlined here.

NL Central

  • The Cardinals announced the additions of Jake Woodford, Elehuris Montero and Alvaro Seijas while designating righty Dominic Leone for assignment (as detailed here at greater length).
  • Outfielder Corey Ray and right-hander J.P. Feyereisen will head onto the Brewers 40-man, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter). It’s not yet known if the team will make further roster additions, but it would have five additional spots to work with to do so. Ray was the fifth overall pick in the 2016 draft but is coming off of a rough season. Feyereisen, who was added in a quiet September swap, will have a chance to challenge for MLB relief opportunities. Milwaukee also added infielder Mark Mathias to the 40-man roster after acquiring him in a trade with the Indians tonight.
  • The Cubs announced that they’ve added catcher Miguel Amaya, infielder Zack Short and right-handers Tyson Miller and Manuel Rodriguez to the 40-man roster. Amaya is the most highly regarded of the bunch, ranking second among Chicago farmhands and drawing some top 100 consideration at MLB.com.
  • Four additions to the 40-man were announced by the Reds, who have selected the contracts of catcher Tyler Stephenson and right-handers Tony Santillan, Ryan Hendrix and Tejay Antone. All four rank within the club’s top 30 at MLB.com, headlined by Santillan at No. 4 and ranging all the way to Antone at No. 30. Santillan thrived in a brief Double-A debut in 2018 but struggled there in a larger 2019 sample (4.84 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 4.8 BB/9 in 102 1/3 innings). He’s still just 22, though, and is regarded as a potential big league starter. Stephenson is a former first-round pick who hit well in a highly pitcher-friendly Double-A setting (.285/.372/.410; 130 wRC+). Hendrix posted big strikeout numbers as a reliever in 2019, while Antone displayed sharp ground-ball skills as a starter and reached Triple-A for the first time.
  • The Pirates added prospects Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, Will Craig, Blake Cederlind and Cody Ponce to the 40-man roster while also designating four pitchers for assignment (as explored in greater length here). Lefty Williams Jerez and right-handers Dario Agrazal, Montana DuRapau and Luis Escobar were cut loose.

NL East

NL East Notes: Zimmerman, Karsay, Mets, Braves

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The latest from the NL East…

  • As of last Tuesday, the Nationals had yet to speak with Ryan Zimmerman or his agents, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports.  Zimmerman is a free agent for the first time in his 15-year career, after the Nats spent $2MM to buy out their $18MM club option on the veteran first baseman for the 2020 season.  Back in August, Zimmerman said that remaining in Washington was a priority, and he was willing to play on a series of less-pricey one-year contracts.  Assuming he hasn’t changed that stance, Zimmerman could be viewed by the Nationals as something of a fallback, as the team may feel safe in first exploring other first base options.
  • The Mets will interview Steve Karsay for their pitching coach opening, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports.  Karsay is currently the Brewers’ bullpen coach, after spending 2012-18 as a pitching coach in the Indians’ minor league system.  Of course, most fans know Karsay best from his 11 seasons and 603 1/3 career MLB innings with five different teams (most notably the A’s, Indians, and Yankees) from 1993-2006.  Twins assistant pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and University Of Michigan pitching coach Chris Fetter are the only other known candidates linked to the Mets’ job.
  • Between Will Smith, Mark Melancon, and Shane Greene, the Braves could be committing roughly $33.5MM in salary to three relievers next season, Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes.  Greene’s salary is still up in the air, as the Braves could potentially non-tender the righty rather than pay him $6.5MM in projected arbitration salary.  A non-tender or trade could be possible if the Braves are wary of overspending on their bullpen, since $33.5MM is rather a hefty sum for a trio that only featured one member (Smith) who posted really outstanding numbers in 2019.  Tucker observes that the Braves already have around $100MM (barring any more non-tenders) on the books for player payroll for next season, which leaves them with quite a bit of spending capacity if the team is willing or able to match its season-ending $144MM payroll figure from last year.

Brewers Claim Eric Yardley

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The Brewers have claimed righty Eric Yardley off waivers from the Padres, per a club announcement. While the MLB.com transactions page indicates that Yardley was released, he evidently had not yet cleared release waivers.

With the move, the Milwaukee club will hand a 40-man spot over to an intriguing sidearmer who could compete for a bullpen job in camp. Yardley doesn’t have much MLB experience but was able to make it through 11 2/3 frames with just three earned runs in his 2019 debut.

Yardley’s low-velo offerings have proven effective over a longer run in the upper minors. He recorded 63 2/3 frames of 2.83 ERA pitching at Triple-A last year, racking up a 63.8% groundball rate while limiting the long ball (0.42 HR/9) and carrying 7.4 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Brewers lost MVP candidate Christian Yelich to a knee fracture in early September but nevertheless rode a torrid hot streak to an NL Wild Card berth. The Milwaukee Magic ran out earlier this season than last, however, as the Brewers couldn’t overcome the Nationals in that one-game showdown. It’ll be back to the drawing board again for president of baseball ops David Stearns and his staff, who’ll enter the offseason with question marks behind the plate, in the infield and on the pitching staff.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Lorenzo Cain, OF: $51MM through 2022
  • Christian Yelich, OF: $27.75MM through 2021 (includes buyout of 2022 club option)
  • Ryan Braun, OF: $20MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 mutual option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Yasmani Grandal, C: Grandal declined $16MM mutual option, becoming a free agent (received $2.5MM buyout)
  • Mike Moustakas, 3B/2B: Moustakas declined $11MM mutual option, becoming a free agent (received $3MM buyout)
  • Eric Thames, 1B/OF: Brewers declined $7.5MM club option (Thames received $1MM buyout)
  • Manny Pina, C: Brewers exercised $1.85MM option

Free Agents

For a team that just enjoyed its second postseason berth in two years, the Brewers have a surprising number of holes to fill. The rotation will be an obvious point of focus, but the lineup offers its share of uncertainty as well.

Both Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas declined mutual options, as expected, removing two of the team’s better bats from the equation. First base will also be a possible point of focus after Milwaukee paid a $1MM buyout rather than exercising a $7.5MM option on slugger Eric Thames. Meanwhile, Travis Shaw struggled through the worst season of his career and isn’t a sure bet to be tendered a contract — let alone to be a major contributor in 2020. At shortstop, Orlando Arcia posted an anemic .223/.283/.350 batting line in 586 plate appearances.

In summary: the Brewers will be in the market for a catcher, at least one corner infielder and perhaps a shortstop. First base could be an area of need as well. That’s a lot of work to tackle even before looking at the pitching staff, so let’s begin with the lineup.

Grandal shocked onlookers, MLBTR included, when he spurned a reported four-year offer from the Mets last winter to sign a one-year pact with Milwaukee. After the agreement, Grandal spoke about the obligation he felt to prioritize a higher annual salary as a means of advancing the market for future catchers.

Perhaps that was a bit of PR spin or perhaps it was genuine; whatever it was, Grandal proved with a .246/.380/.468 batting line and his characteristic brand of strong defense that he should be Milwaukee’s priority this winter. There’s no doubt that retaining him would be expensive — particularly if Grandal’s preference is once again for a premium annual rate at the expense of length. But the Brewers would be within their means and within reason if they offered Grandal an annual salary in the $20MM range over a three-year term. If he’s willing to sign a four-year pact at a slightly lesser rate, that’d be well worth considering, too. As for the backup role, paying a net $1.7MM for Pina’s quality glove is perfectly sensible.

There’s also a strong argument in favor of re-signing Moustakas. It’s tough to pay Shaw a projected $4.7MM as a rebound candidate, but reallocating that money to a new pact for Moustakas would create needed stability in an infield mix where only breakout rookie Keston Hiura appears locked into a spot (second base). Despite a quality run that now includes four above-average seasons in five years, Moustakas simply hasn’t been valued all that highly in two trips to the open market. Retaining him on a two-year deal comparable to this season’s value would be a worthwhile avenue to explore.

Of course, offseason demand will dictate the price points for Grandal and Moustakas, and at a certain juncture the Brewers will be willing to move on. Should that happen, they’ll have a bevy of catching alternatives from which to choose, including a perhaps on-the-rise Travis d’Arnaud, a steady defender in Jason Castro and a quality veteran bat in Robinson Chirinos (among others). There are fewer reasonably priced free agents at the hot corner — Anthony Rendon is too lofty a target — but perhaps if Grandal spurns a robust three-year offer, the Brewers could look to the older-but-still-excellent Josh Donaldson in a similar price range.

Uncertainty at the infield corners notwithstanding, the biggest problem area in the infield is shortstop, where the aforementioned Arcia has yet to live up to the hype that surrounded him as a minor leaguer. Once ranked inside the game’s Top 10 overall prospects by both Baseball America and MLB.com, Arcia has mustered a miserable .243/.292/.360 batting line in nearly 1700 MLB plate appearances. The Brewers have entrusted primary shortstop duties to him for three straight seasons and come away with virtually nothing to show for it. If you’re looking for a clean fit for Didi Gregorius, Milwaukee is a good place to start.

Shifting focus to the pitching staff, it’s somewhat amazing that Milwaukee made it as far as it did with the staff in place. The Brewers, by Stearns’ own admission, “tend to blur the lines” between starters and relievers more than most clubs. You want see many Milwaukee starters even pitch six innings, but their success while relying on Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Adrian Houser and IL returnees Brandon Woodruff, Brent Suter and Jimmy Nelson was remarkable. Both Nelson and Woodruff have high ceilings and have realized that potential for significant stretches of time, but both have battled recent injuries. Nelson missed most of 2019 while recovering from shoulder surgery, while a severe oblique strain sidelined Woodruff for two months.

That duo, if healthy, gives the Brewers a foundation for the starting staff in 2020. But Milwaukee has already moved on from Anderson, whom they didn’t trust for more than five innings at a time in 2019. With his $8.5MM option deemed more expensive than the organization was willing to spend, Anderson was flipped to the pitching-needy Blue Jays on the first day of the offseason. That move saved some money but also further thinned out the Brewers’ depth.

The Brewers may yet be hopeful that right-handers Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta can function as starters — or at least a multi-inning role of some sort — but the organization could still stand to bring in a source of stable innings. Similar arguments have been made in each of the past two offseasons, and the Brewers responded rather tepidly by adding Jhoulys Chacin, Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez on low-risk deals. That history makes it hard to predict that the Brewers will step up in pursuit of any high-end starter, but they at least make sense for some reasonably priced upside plays. Jordan Lyles (again), Drew Smyly and Michael Wacha could fit the bill. Or, the Brewers could operate as they have most recently and wait to see who’s left without a seat at the end of this offseason’s game of musical chairs.

In the bullpen, the Brewers will likely be intrigued by any pitcher they believe capable of throwing more than an inning at a time. Drew Pomeranz morphed into a late-inning monster in Milwaukee and recorded four or more outs in nearly a third of his appearances down the stretch. Pomeranz’s unexpected dominance could make him a buzz reliever who generates multi-year interest, but if the Brewers plan to continue sticking to low-cost rotation options, spending more to retain a pitcher who looked like a potential high-end relief weapon would make sense.

Alternatively, Milwaukee wants to pursue some higher-end targets to pair with Josh Hader and a returning Corey Knebel next season, they could look into a Will Smith reunion or pursue Will Harris. This year’s market is generally lacking in top-flight setup options, though veterans like Joe Smith, Steve Cishek and Craig Stammen have generally solid track records. And, as always, the trade market will present limitless opportunities for Stearns & Co. to explore as they look to piece together what should once again be one of the game’s more unique assemblies of pitchers.

Depending on the moves the Brewers make on the position-player side of the coin, they’ll need that penchant for creative pitching staff construction to its fullest extent. Assuming some additional non-tenders (Shaw, Junior Guerra, and Tyler Saladino), the Brewers currently project to have about $73.5MM in 2020 commitments. That’s roughly $49MM shy of this year’s Opening Day mark, but the aforementioned needs at catcher, third base and shortstop could all be costly to fill — particularly if retaining Grandal is deemed a Lorenzo Cain-esque priority (that is to say — a relatively unique free agent worth deviating from the more value-based mindset with which the organization typically approaches the open market).

There’ll be a lot written about the Brewers’ need to add legitimate starting pitching help this winter, but that hasn’t been how this front office has operated. Milwaukee has persistently bucked conventional wisdom when putting together rosters that feature exceptional flexibility in the lineup, on the pitching staff and on the fringes of the 25-man roster itself. The addition of a 26th roster spot next season might allow other clubs to follow in those footsteps a bit, but Milwaukee’s knack for cultivating depth and leveraging versatility is among the best in the game.

The Brewers will need to employ that same creativity in the months to come as they look to reshape the infield and deepen their pitching staff in an effort to keep up with the division-champion Cardinals, the typically aggressive Cubs (last winter being a notable exception) and a Reds team that is more motivated to win than at any point in recent history.

Super Two Cutoff Set At 2.115 Years Of Service

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NOV. 5: This year’s cutoff is set at precisely 2.115 days of service, MLBTR has learned.

OCT. 10: This year’s cutoff point to determine Super Two status will be unusually low, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (via Twitter). While an exact cutoff point is yet unclear, McCalvy reports that Josh Hader, who has two years and 115 days of MLB service time (abbreviated as 2.115) will be eligible for arbitration this winter. In essence, that means that Hader is about to become a very well-compensated reliever. That would’ve been the case in the 2020-21 offseason anyway, but he’ll now tap into that earning power a year early. It’s also worth noting that this cutoff point will place Miami’s JT Riddle, who finished the season at 2.118 years of service, into arbitration eligibility as well.

A 2.115 cutoff would already be the lowest Super Two threshold in the past decade. The previous lowpoints in that span came in 2010 and 2013, when the cutoff was 2.122. Last year, it settled at 2.134. If the threshold is any lower this season, others could also be impacted. Arizona’s Luke Weaver (2.112) and Oakland’s Matt Chapman (2.109) are the most notable names within reasonable distance of Hader’s 2.115.

Super Two designation is one of the innumerable quirks to the ever-confounding arbitration system. For the unfamiliar, Major League players earn “service time” for every day spent on an MLB roster. One year of MLB service is defined as 172 days — despite the fact that there are more days than that in the regular season. (This year’s season was 186 days; again — hooray for quirks!)

Upon reaching three years of service time, all players become eligible for salary arbitration. Prior to that point, teams are effectively able to set (most) player salaries at any rate they wish, so long as it is north of the league minimum. Many teams have formulas they use to determine pre-arbitration salaries, and it’s quite rare for pre-arb players to earn even $1MM (barring a long-term extension). Arbitration is the first point at which players and their agents can begin negotiating with teams regarding their salary, though arbitration prices still typically fall shy of open-market value.

The “Super Two” wrinkle further complicates matters. The top 22 percent of players (in terms of total service time) with between two and three years of service also are considered eligible for arbitration and termed “Super Two” players. Any player who falls into that service bucket and spent at least 86 days of the preceding season on a 25-man roster or the Major League injured list become eligible a year early and then go through the arbitration process four times.

In the case of Hader, he’s now in line for a fairly considerable salary. He has 37 more innings, eight more saves and a whopping 116 more strikeouts than his own teammate, Corey Knebel, had when reaching arbitration as a Super Two player last season. Knebel landed a $3.65MM salary, which Hader should handily top. Beyond that, Hader’s subsequent raises in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be built off a higher base because of his early entry into the arbitration process.

Once the exact cutoff is determined, we’ll add projections for Hader, Riddle and any other newly minted arbitration-eligible players to our just-released annual list of arbitration projections.

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