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Twins Have Interest In Taijuan Walker

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The Twins added veteran starter Jhoulys Chacin on a minor league deal over the weekend but might not be through adding experienced arms to their spring rotation mix. Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that the club could yet add right-hander Taijuan Walker to the fray; Miller’s colleague, La Velle E. Neal III, also mentioned Minnesota’s interest in the righty in a previous notebook column.

Walker, 27, once rated as one of the game’s 15 best overall prospects and looked to be putting things together following a trade from Seattle to Arizona. In 2017, his age-24 campaign, Walker tossed 157 1/3 frames of 3.49 ERA ball in Arizona, averaging 8.4 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.97 HR/9 and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate.

However, the former No. 43 overall draft pick (Mariners, 2010) wound up undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018, and a sprained shoulder capsule the following May prolonged his absence while creating additional health concerns. Walker was only able to make it back to a big league mound for one inning in 2019, when he served as an opener in the Diamondbacks’ final game of the year. Arizona non-tendered him in December rather than pay a third-time arbitration salary that would’ve likely matched last year’s $5.025MM rate.

In all, Walker has totaled just 14 innings over the past two seasons thanks to that torn elbow ligament and sprained shoulder capsule, which have understandably combined to limit his earning power. Neal implied that the Twins have hoped to land Walker on a non-roster deal, though the lack of an agreement suggests that he’s perhaps holding out for a guaranteed contract.

It’s easy enough to see Walker’s appeal for the Twins, whose 2020 rotation is currently the weakest area on the club. Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi will be back to lead the staff, and Minnesota added right-hander Homer Bailey on the heels of his healthiest season since 2013. Michael Pineda, too, will return in 2020 — but not until he finishes up a reduced 60-game suspension for taking a banned substance. That punishment will keep him shelved until mid-May. Lefty Rich Hill, signed the same day as Bailey, will be out until at least June after undergoing primary repair surgery on his left elbow this winter.

The Twins currently appear likely to rely on right-hander Randy Dobnak (1.59 ERA, 23-to-5 K/BB ratio in 28 1/3 innings in 2019) and left-hander Devin Smeltzer (3.86 ERA, 38-to-12 K/BB in 49 innings) to round out their rotation early in the season. The weekend addition of Chacin gives them another option, should he look more like his 2018 self than his 2019 self this spring. Aussie southpaw Lewis Thorpe and top prospect Brusdar Graterol could also be in the mix.

Walker, though, would add an intriguing wild card to that rotation competition if the two sides are ultimately able to strike up a deal. He has five-plus year of service time under his belt, meaning there are no future arbitration years of which to gain control, but he’s looked like one of the market’s more intriguing short-term dice rolls since the day he was non-tendered two months ago.

Twins To Sign Jhoulys Chacin

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The Twins have reached an agreement to sign free-agent right-hander Jhoulys Chacin, according to Robert Murray. Chacin, who is represented by GSE Worldwide, will join the team on a minor league contract with an invite to big league camp, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman confirms. Per Daniel Alvarez of El Extrabase, Chacin will earn $1.6MM with an additional $1.5MM in incentives if he makes the Major League team.

Although Chacin, 32, is coming off a dreadful season that resulted in his release from the Brewers, he is only a year removed from a solid 2018 season in which he anchored the Milwaukee rotation. And while a minor league deal doesn’t guarantee anything, Chacin seems like a solid bet to crack the Twins’ opening day roster. The Minnesota club has made it known that they set out this offseason to bolster the rotation, but after striking out on top-tier arms like Hyun-Jin Ryu and Madison Bumgarner, they’ve had to settle for the more modest combination of Rich Hill and Homer Bailey.

But there’s no way around the fact that Chacin ranked as one of the worst starters in baseball last year. He only managed a 6.01 overall ERA, and a brief tryout with the Red Sox didn’t yield much better results than his Brewers tenure. For what it’s worth, he did see an uptick in his strikeouts during his stint in Boston: in 14 2/3 innings, he struck out 21 batters, good for an average of 12.9 K/9. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that Chacin may have been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball when it came to home runs, which account for much of his dropoff from 2018 to 2019. Indeed, among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, Chacin’s 21% HR/FB rate ranked as the eighth-highest, meaning that we might expect some of those home runs to turn into mere flyouts next year.

Despite the ugly on-field results, Chacin’s slider still graded as a solidly positive offering last year, and it’s the most important pitch in Chacin’s arsenal: its increased usage coincided with his 2018 breakout. Opponents did most of their damage against his sinker and four-seam fastball, so it should come as no surprise that Chacin has decreased his usage of those pitches each of the last two years. If he can rediscover his 2018 form, expect Chacin to push hard for a spot at the back end of the Minnesota rotation, which will be missing the suspended Michael Pineda for some time and currently has the inexperienced combination of Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer penciled in to round out the starting staff.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/29/20

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Checking in on a few minor moves…

  • Rob Whalen walked away from the game last February, but the right-hander has returned to professional baseball less than a year later. He announced Wednesday on Twitter that he has joined the Mets on a minor league contract. This will be the second go-around with the Mets for the 25-year-old Whalen, who broke into the pro ranks as a 12th-round pick of the club in 2012. He wound up pitching in the majors with the Braves and Mariners from 2016-18, but battles with anxiety and depression played a part in his decision to briefly step away from the game.
  • The Royals announced that they’ve outrighted hurler Heath Fillmyer to Triple-A Omaha. The club designated Fillmyer Jan. 22 to clear a roster spot for the re-signed Alex Gordon. Fillmyer hasn’t been outrighted before, nor does he have the service time to elect free agency, so he’ll stay with the KC organization. Notably, Wednesday’s the two-year anniversary of the Royals acquiring Fillmyer from the Athletics in a trade that also included Ryan Buchter, Brandon Moss and Jesse Hahn. Fillmyer performed reasonably well in his first year as a Royal (4.26 ERA/4.75 FIP with 6.23 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 82 1/3 innings), but his numbers went south at the major league and Triple-A levels last season. The 25-year-old righty spent the majority of 2019 in Omaha, where he pitched to a 5.11 ERA/5.72 FIP and logged 9.3 K/9 against 4.74 BB/9 over 49 1/3 frames.
  • The Twins have signed righty Chris Rowley to a minors deal, per Nate Rowan, the director of communications for their Triple-A affiliate in Rochester. The 29-year-old, a former standout at West Point, saw a bit of major league action with the Blue Jays from 2017-18. Rowley spent last season in Triple-A ball as a member of the San Diego organization, though, and injuries helped limit him to 16 1/3 innings. Rowley gave up a whopping 20 earned runs on 27 hits and nine walks (with 11 strikeouts) in that span.

Nationals Acquire Ryne Harper

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The Nationals announced today that they have acquired righty Ryne Harper from the Twins. Young righty Hunter McMahon goes to Minnesota in return.

This Harper should not be confused with former Nats’ minor-leaguer Bryan Harper, who’s also a 30-year-old right-hander. The Nationals’ incoming hurler was acquired after he was designated for assignment recently by the Twins.

The Nationals obviously faced some competition to bring in Harper, as they parted with a recent ninth-round draft pick to get him. McMahon, 21, signed an at-slot deal to join the D.C. farm system. He impressed in his first 12 2/3 professional innings, racking up an 18:2 K/BB ratio and allowing just one earned run in the low minors.

It seems there’s a good chance we’ll see another Harper uniform in D.C. While Bryan never made it past Triple-A, big brother Bryce was rather a notable player with the team for a stretch.

The Nats’ newest Harper isn’t exactly a high-ceiling player but could be quite a useful asset. He reached the bigs for the first time in 2019, spinning 54 1/3 innings of 3.81 ERA ball with 8.3 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, and 1.16 HR/9 while leaning on his excellent control and heavily utilized breaking ball. If he can repeat something along those lines, the still-optionable Harper would be well worth his non-guaranteed, league-minimum salary.

As for McMahon, the 21-year-old was the Nationals’ ninth-round pick just this past summer in the 2019 draft. The Texas State product allowed one run in 12 2/3 innings of relief with an 18-to-2 K/BB ratio in his brief professional debut.

Twins Announce Several Minor League Signings

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The Twins organization has agreed to seven more minor league deals with free agents, Triple-A Rochester director of communications Nate Rowan announced Tuesday. Right-handers Juan Minaya, Austin D. Adams, Casey Lawrence, Parker Bridwell, Alec Asher and Joey Krehbiel all agreed to deals with the Twins, as did infielder Calten Daal.

Minaya, 29, spent the past four seasons with the division-rival White Sox and logged significant innings in each of the past three. From 2017-19, Minaya pitched to a 3.89 ERA (4.19 FIP) with 10.4 K/9, 4.7 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 in 118 innings of relief for the South Siders. His average heater was down about a mile per hour in 2019, sitting at 93.4 mph, but Minaya has a steady track record of missing bats while displaying sub-par control.

Adams, 33, made a pair of appearances with the Twins and tallied 14 frames with the Tigers but allowed 13 runs in 16 2/3 frames overall. He struggled in Triple-A as well, but this will be his third stint in the Twins organization, so the club’s decision-makers clearly see something they feel they can work with even if his recent results have been poor.

Bridwell, 28, pitched 121 innings of 3.64 ERA ball with the 2017 Angels, although his secondary numbers never really supported that mark. The righty averaged just 5.4 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 with an elevated 1.41 HR/9 rate and 38.1 percent ground-ball rate in ’17, causing FIP (4.84), xFIP (5.07) and SIERA (5.06) to view him in a less favorable light. Bridwell has an ERA north of 8.00 in a pair of injury-shortened Triple-A seasons since that time.

The 32-year-old Lawrence had a rough season in Japan in 2019 and returns to affiliated ball after just one year overseas. He spent 2017-18 in Seattle, where he soaked up 78 2/3 innings in a long relief/spot-starting role but limped to a 6.64 ERA along the way. Lawrence does have a respectable 3.73 ERA with 7.0 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9 in 262 2/3 Triple-A innings in his career.

Asher has just three MLB innings since 2017 and, in total, has a 5.42 ERA in 119 2/3 innings between the Phillies, Orioles and Brewers. The former Rangers prospect went to the Phils as part of the Cole Hamels deal several years ago, but he’s yet to find success in the bigs while serving mostly as a fifth starter/long reliever. The 28-year-old spent most of 2019 with the Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks, working to a 3.12 ERA in 37 1/3 frames.

Krehbiel, meanwhile, has just three big league innings to his name but has averaged just under 11 strikeouts per nine innings in his minor league career. Daal, 26, is a middle infielder who never cracked the Majors after seven seasons in the Reds organization. He’s consistently posted solid batting averages but limited on-base percentages and well below-average power numbers.

Teams That Gained Or Lost Draft Picks Via Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Now that Marcell Ozuna has signed, all 10 of the players who were issued a one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer in November have settled on teams for the 2020 season.  Of that group, two (Jose Abreu of the White Sox and Jake Odorizzi of the Twins) accepted their qualifying offers and returned to their clubs — Abreu, in fact, topped off his QO by signing a contract extension that will run through the 2022 season.  Stephen Strasburg also isn’t changing uniforms, as the longtime Nationals ace rejected the club’s qualifying offer but eventually re-signed with Washington on a seven-year, $245MM deal.

That leaves us with seven QO players who will be playing on new teams in 2020, and as such, the draft compensation attached to those seven players has also now been allotted.  Under the rules of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the same compensation was handed out to all six teams who lost those players, as the entire sextet fell under the same financial criteria.  The Mets, Cardinals, Braves, Giants, Nationals, and Astros all aren’t revenue-sharing recipients, nor did they exceed the luxury tax threshold in 2019, so all six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft.

Here is how the so-called “Compensation Round” breaks down.  The order of the picks is determined by worst record-to-best record from the 2019 season.

68. Giants (for Madison Bumgarner)
69. Giants (for Will Smith)
70. Mets (for Zack Wheeler)
71. Cardinals (for Marcell Ozuna)
72. Nationals (for Anthony Rendon)
73. Braves (for Josh Donaldson)
74. Astros (for Gerrit Cole)

San Francisco now possesses five of the first 87 picks in next June’s draft.  With the Giants still in the NL wild card race last summer, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi opted to hang onto Bumgarner and Smith rather than trade either player, a decision that led to some criticism since San Francisco was widely considered to be closer to rebuilding than truly contending.  The critics’ judgement grew even harsher after the Giants went 22-32 record in August and September and fell well short of the postseason.  Still, given that teams were reluctant to part with top-flight young talent for even controllable players (let alone rentals like Bumgarner and Smith) at the trade deadline, Zaidi clearly felt that the two picks he could recoup from the qualifying offer process were more valuable than anything offered for the two Giants pitchers last July.

It’s worth noting that the 74th overall pick will be Houston’s first selection of the 2020 draft, after the Astros lost both their first- and second-highest selections in both 2020 and 2021 as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.  Since the Red Sox are also under league investigation for their own alleged use of electronics to steal opponents’ signs in 2018, Boston could also potentially lose at least one pick in this year’s draft, so we can’t yet say that the 2020 draft order is finalized.  Of course, the order could be further muddled if more trades occur involving picks from the two Competitive Balance Draft rounds, which are the only types of draft picks that can be traded.  We’ve already seen the Rays and Cardinals swap their picks in Rounds A and B as part of the multi-player trade that sent Jose Martinez and Randy Arozarena to Tampa Bay earlier this month.

Let’s now look at the six teams who signed the seven QO-rejecting free agents, and see what those clubs had to give up in order to make the signings.

Yankees, for signing Gerrit Cole: Since New York exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2019, they gave up their second- and fifth-round picks in the 2020 draft (a.k.a. their second- and fifth-highest selections).  The Yankees also gave up $1MM in funds from their international signing bonus pool.

Diamondbacks, for signing Madison Bumgarner: As a team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and was a revenue-sharing recipient, the D’Backs had to give up their third-highest draft choice to sign Bumgarner.  This ended up being Arizona’s second-round selection — the team’s first two picks are their first-rounder (18th overall) and their pick in Competitive Balance Round A (33rd overall).

Twins, for signing Josh Donaldson: Minnesota also received revenue-sharing and didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold, so signing Donaldson put the Twins in position to give up their third-highest draft selection.  However, the Twins are actually giving up their fourth-highest pick in the 2020 draft, which is their third-round selection.  The Twins’ actual third selection is their pick in Competitive Balance Round B, but those picks aren’t eligible to be forfeited as compensation for QO free agent signings.

Angels, for signing Anthony Rendon: Since the Halos didn’t receive revenue-sharing funds and also didn’t pay any luxury tax money, they had to give up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K in international bonus funds to sign Rendon.

Phillies, for signing Zack Wheeler: The Phillies surrendered their second-highest selection (their second-round pick) and $500K of their international bonus pool, since they were another team that didn’t exceed the luxury tax line and didn’t receive revenue-sharing money.

Braves, for signing Will Smith and Marcell Ozuna: The dual signings put Atlanta in line for a dual penalty.  The Braves didn’t exceed the luxury tax threshold and also didn’t receive revenue-sharing money, so they gave up their second-highest draft pick (their second-rounder) and $500K of international bonus money for Smith.  In landing Ozuna, the Braves then had to also forfeit their third-round pick (their third-highest selection) and another $500K from their international bonus pool.

Losing two draft picks and $1MM in international pool money isn’t nothing, though these particular sanctions had less impact on the Braves than on other teams, which undoubtedly influenced their decisions.  First of all, the compensatory pick Atlanta received for Donaldson is higher in the draft order than their third-round pick, so the net loss is only a second-round pick.  Secondly, the Braves’ movement in the international market is still limited by the punishment handed out by Major League Baseball in November 2017 for Atlanta’s past international signing violations.  Part of that punishment included the Braves’ pool for the 2020-21 international market being reduced by 50 percent — being so handcuffed in the international market anyway, the Braves probably felt $1MM in pool money was no great loss.

Twins Notes: Cruz, Donaldson, Hill

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Nelson Cruz hit .311/.392/.639 with 41 homers in his first season in Minnesota, making it an easy call for the Twins to exercise their $12MM club option on the veteran slugger for 2020.  Cruz can be a free agent next winter, though GM Thad Levine told fans and reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) at this weekend’s TwinsFest fan event that “we are having ongoing conversations with [Cruz’s] agent to discuss mutual interest in the future.”

Though Cruz has continued to swing a mighty bat into his late 30’s, he signed with the Twins for just one guaranteed year (worth $14.3MM in guaranteed money) with the 2020 club option last winter, as his age and DH-only lineup deployment limited his market.  It’s fair to assume that those same factors could impact Cruz again this coming offseason, even if he has another big season in 2020.  Cruz turns 40 in July, so perhaps a modest one-year extension covering the 2021 season would be acceptable to both sides.  The Twins would be making a minimal risk in an aging player who has shown no signs of falling off at the plate, while Cruz would get some extra reward and security, while sidestepping the free agent market to stay in a familiar environment with a contending team.

Here’s more from the Twin Cities….

  • The Twins’ signing of Josh Donaldson is chronicled by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes (subscription required) in a fascinating behind-the-scenes look at the courtship between the two sides.  Most of the deal’s financial elements (four years and $92MM, plus a club option for 2024) were already put forward by the Twins as early as mid-December, though that left several weeks of uncertainty on both sides as Donaldson pondered his options and began to learn more about the Minnesota organization.  “There were times we thought we had a zero percent chance of signing (Donaldson).  There were times we thought we had something a lot better,” Levine said.  The process was also somewhat complicated by Levine going on vacation in late December, as chief baseball officer Derek Falvey then stepped in to continue negotiations with Donaldson’s representatives.
  • Rich Hill is still targeting early June for his return date to the majors, and the date of his debut in a Twins uniform.  Hill told MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park and other reporters that he will begin baseball activities next week, as the veteran left-hander continues to recover from primary revision surgery in November.  Though Hill pitched with a detached UCL for much of the 2019 season, the injury wasn’t serious enough to require Tommy John surgery, which is why he opted for the lesser-known primary revision procedure that offered a shorter recovery timeframe.  “It’s only a six-year-old surgery, and it’s had a huge amount of success of people who have had it and come back.  I think it’s above a 95 percent success rate, so it’s something that I’m extremely excited about,” Hill said.  The Twins signed Hill to a one-year deal in December worth $3MM in guaranteed money, though Hill only needs to pitch as many as 25 innings to start unlocking the $9.5MM in extra incentive bonuses in the contract.

Free Agent Spending By Team: American League

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As we covered earlier this week, almost all of the prominent free agents in this year’s class have already exited the board. Because of that, we’ll see more and more minor league signings and fewer and fewer major league deals in the weeks leading up to the start of the regular season. This has been an aggressive offseason in terms of spending, though. To this point, which teams have handed out the most guaranteed money via the open market? We’ll examine both leagues, but let’s begin with the AL (reminder: This exercise excludes trades, club options, extensions, waiver claims and Rule 5 selections)…

Yankees: $336.5MM on two players (Gerrit Cole and Brett Gardner; top 50 MLBTR signings: two)

Angels: $260.85MM on three players (Anthony Rendon, Julio Teheran and Jason Castro; top 50 signings: three)

White Sox: $196.5MM on six players (Yasmani Grandal, Jose Abreu, Dallas Keuchel, Edwin Encarnacion, Steve Cishek and Gio Gonzalez; top 50 signings: five)

Twins: $151.8MM on eight players (Josh Donaldson, Michael Pineda, Jake Odorizzi, Homer Bailey, Sergio Romo, Alex Avila, Rich Hill and Tyler Clippard; top 50 signings: four)

Blue Jays: $114.35MM on four players (Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Shun Yamaguchi and Travis Shaw; top 50 signings: two)

Rangers: $62.25MM on five players (Kyle Gibson, Jordan Lyles, Robinson Chirinos, Joely Rodriguez and Todd Frazier; top 50 signings: two)

Tigers: $17.8MM on four players (C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, Austin Romine and Ivan Nova; top 50 signings: one)

Astros: $15.65MM on three players (Joe Smith, Martin Maldonado and Dustin Garneau; top 50 signings: zero)

Rays: $12MM on one player (Yoshitomo Tsutsugo; top 50 signings: zero)

Red Sox: $9.9MM on three players (Martin Perez, Jose Peraza and Kevin Plawecki; top 50 signings: zero)

Athletics: $7.5MM on one player (Jake Diekman; top 50 signings: zero)

Royals: $6.95MM on two players (Alex Gordon and Maikel Franco; top 50 signings: zero)

Indians: $6.25MM on one player (Cesar Hernandez; top 50 signings: zero)

Orioles: $3MM on one player (Jose Iglesias; top 50 signings: zero)

Mariners: $2.95MM on two players (Kendall Graveman and Carl Edwards Jr.; top 50 signings: zero)

Twins Designate Ryne Harper

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The Twins have designated right-hander Ryne Harper for assignment, the club informed reporters including Dan Hayes of The Athletic (Twitter link). His roster spot was needed for the addition of Josh Donaldson.

It’s a tough result for the 30-year-old Harper, who had a solid showing in his long-awaited MLB debut campaign. He worked to a 3.81 ERA with 8.3 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 over 54 1/3 innings.

Teams interested in cheap and steady innings will surely take a hard look at Harper. He doesn’t throw hard and generates bottom-of-the-barrel fastball spin. But his command-driven, slider-heavy approach still permitted an 11.6% swinging-strike rate and a palatable 1.16 HR/9.

Twins Sign Josh Donaldson

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JANUARY 22: The signing is now official. Donaldson’s pact also includes a five-team no-trade clause, Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets.

JANUARY 15: The Twins have reportedly agreed to a four-year, $92MM contract with free agent third baseman Josh Donaldson. It’s said to include a $16MM club option for a fifth season, which comes with a $8MM buyout. Donaldson is represented by the MVP Sports Group.

The $92MM guarantee makes this the largest free-agent signing in team history and the second-largest contract the franchise has ever given out, trailing only Joe Mauer’s eight-year, $184MM mega-deal.

Minnesota has long been reported to hold interest in Donaldson after missing out on higher-end upgrades in the starting rotation earlier in the winter. By bringing Donaldson aboard, the Twins will shift the recently extended Miguel Sano across the diamond to first base, upgrading their infield defense substantially while adding one of the game’s most potent bats to what was already one of MLB’s best lineups in 2019.

Donaldson, 34, bounced back from an injury-ruined 2018 season to hit .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs in 155 games/659 plate appearances with the Braves last season. That marked his fourth season of at least 33 home runs in the past five years, with the lone exception coming in 2018 when a calf injury held him to 52 games. His addition, incredibly, will give the Twins six players who hit 30 or more home runs in 2019; Sano, Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario and Mitch Garver also crossed the 30-homer threshold on a team that Rosario nicknamed the “Bomba Squad.” While that type of output can’t be expected to be repeated — at least, assuming the league corrects last year’s juiced ball — the Twins should still be in possession of perhaps baseball’s most powerful lineup.

For the Twins, Donaldson’s glove at third base is arguably as important as his offensive prowess. Despite playing last season at age 33, Donaldson tied for 17th among MLB infielders with +8 Outs Above Average (per Statcast). Sano, conversely, checked in at -5 in that same category, so shifting him across the diamond in favor of Donaldson will represent a marked upgrade to the team’s infield defense, which was quietly one of its most significant needs. Shortstop Jorge Polanco graded out poorly, as did rookie second baseman Luis Arraez. The team’s infield defense surely won’t be a strength in 2020, but it figures to be considerably better with Donaldson than it otherwise would have.

Given the Twins’ inability to upgrade their rotation in a notable way this winter, that improved defense will be all the more important. Minnesota has signed Homer Bailey and Rich Hill to affordable one-year deals but will otherwise rely upon a very similar starting staff to the one that looked overmatched in the 2019 American League Division Series. Jose Berrios remains under club control as an arbitration-eligible player, while Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer and Michael Pineda re-signed on a two-year, $20MM deal. There’s still room for the Twins to make an addition, of course, but the free-agent market has been largely picked over and the trade market doesn’t offer a clearly available top-of-the-rotation arm.

The addition of Donaldson should push the Twins to a new franchise record in payroll, eclipsing the previous mark of $129MM by a good margin. Assuming an even $21MM breakdown of the first four years of the deal, the Twins’ 2020 payroll will clock in at just shy of $140MM. Large as that number may be, the Twins’ total commitments will plummet to about $55MM in 2021; Odorizzi, Cruz, Bailey, Hill, Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Avila, Tyler Clippard, Trevor May and Ehire Adrianza are all lined up to become free agents.

Signing Donaldson, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Braves, will cost the Twins their third-highest pick in the 2020. That’s their Competitive Balance Round B selection — currently slotted to come in at No. 73 overall. The Braves, conversely, will receive a compensatory selection between the end of Competitive Balance Round B and the beginning of Round 3. Coincidentally, the comp pick they’ll receive will land in the exact same range as the pick that Minnesota is surrendering.

Certainly, given Donaldson’s age, there’s some risk with the deal. He’s generally been a durable commodity outside of that 2018 season, but Donaldson’s ability to remain an elite player into the middle years of this contract is more in question than is typical with younger free agents. Of course, with Cruz among the Twins’ many free agents next winter, Donaldson could eventually begin seeing some extra time at DH to help keep him productive. And, in the final season or two of the deal, it’s possible that he could even serve as the team’s primary designated hitter if that becomes necessary.

Looking ahead to the remainder of the offseason, it seems likely that the Twins will continue to at least parse the market for available pitching upgrades. The bullpen is in better shape than it was at the onset of free agency, but there’s potentially some room for another ’pen addition and certainly room for another starter to be brought into the fray. Just how much further owner Jim Pohlad is willing to push payroll and how willing president of baseball ops Derek Falvey is to part with young talent will ultimately dictate whether another splash is in the offing.

The Twins, of course, aren’t the only team impacted by this signing. The Braves now have a glaring hole in the middle of their lineup and a need at the hot corner. The Nationals, another finalist in the Donaldson mix, can turn to some combination of Starlin Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera or prospect Carter Kieboom at third base. That Donaldson landed in Minnesota also bodes well for both the Cubs and Rockies, if either plans to seriously entertain offers for their respective star third basemen, Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado. The Twins wouldn’t necessarily have made a push to add a different third baseman had Donaldson signed elsewhere, having Sano already in the fold. But the Braves now appear to have a significant need at third base — creating a clear avenue to a potential trade for a third baseman of some type.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted news of the signing. Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North Radio (via Twitter), Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com (via Twitter), and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter) all reported contract details.  This post was originally published on 1-14-20.

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