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Justin Upton

Quick Hits: Buxton, Upton, Nationals, A’s

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The Twins won’t be recalling Byron Buxton to the Major League roster, a decision that puts the team in line to gain an extra year of control over the young outfielder.  The situation has already created controversy, and there seems to be at least a chance that Buxton and his representatives at Jet Sports Management could look into filing a grievance with the league.  In a statement to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required), agency owner B.B. Abbott said “We will examine this against the rights provided to all players under the CBA.  Until then, we will let Twins fans form their own opinions about this decision.”  MLBPA executive director Tony Clark also commented on Buxton, saying that the union “will review all options with Byron and his representatives.”

Minnesota GM Thad Levine did mention that the team was aware of Buxton’s service time circumstances, and Rosenthal is skeptical about the three larger factors (concerns about the wrist injury that sent Buxton to the DL, a lack of room in the Twins outfield, and “a performance standpoint factor“) that Levine cited as the chief reasons for Buxton remaining in Triple-A.  Buxton has not only been healthy enough to play regularly in Triple-A, Rosenthal observes, but the outfielder has also been hitting quite well in recent games.  Rosenthal wonders if the Twins’ desire to retain Buxton for an extra season will cost them in the long run, as Buxton may now be soured on signing a longer-term extension to remain in Minnesota beyond 2022.

Here’s more from around baseball on this Labor Day weekend…

  • Justin Upton suffered a concussion while avoiding a collision with Angels teammate Andrelton Simmons during Saturday’s game, the outfielder told MLB.com’s Maria Guardado and other reporters.  Upton came out of the game and didn’t play on Sunday, as he’ll be out of action until his symptoms fully subside.  Upton’s first full season in a Halos uniform has been an impressive one, as the 31-year-old has 26 homers and a .265/.349/.467 slash line over 533 plate appearances.
  • The Nationals will activate right-hander Erick Fedde from the 60-day DL to start Tuesday’s game, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes.  Fedde has been sidelined with inflammation in his throwing shoulder, the latest in a series of injuries that has set back his young career.  Fedde has only 43 1/3 Major League innings to his name over 2017-18, though he’ll get a chance at showcasing himself in September.  As Zuckerman notes, the Nationals may use Gio Gonzalez’s former rotation spot to give starts to multiple young arms, including Fedde and possibly Joe Ross, who is on track to make his return from Tommy John surgery sometime this month.
  • With the Athletics rolling, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle wonders why the team hasn’t extended manager Bob Melvin, who is only under contract through the 2019 season.  Failing to keep Melvin (or, for that matter, baseball operations head Billy Beane and GM David Forst) from “lame-duck status” in the final year of their deals threatens to undermine the progress that the A’s have made this season, Shea opines.  Back in June, the Chronicle’s Susan Slusser reported that there some belief that the team’s upper management wouldn’t retain Beane, Forst, and/or Melvin beyond the end of their current contracts.  If this was ownership’s plan, however, one wonders if things have changed in the wake of the Athletics’ hot streak and return to contention.

Injury Notes: Upton, Abreu, Garcia, Ervin, Goody, Chisenhall

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The Angels announced Tuesday that they’ve placed outfielder Justin Upton on the 10-day disabled list due to a laceration on his index finger. Jack Magruder of MLB.com writes that Upton required stitches after he sustained a severe cut at his home on a wine glass that had broken. Upton expressed frustration and regret over incurring an off-field injury in this manner, though it sounds as if he’ll only require a short-term absence from the team. The Angels aren’t contending for the postseason anyhow, but Upton would surely like to be on the field competing and pursuing a third consecutive 30-homer season. The slugger is in the first season of a five-year, $106MM extension with the Angels and has batted .267/.352/.474 with 26 big flies on the year.

Some more injury news from around the league…

  • The White Sox will be without Jose Abreu for the next two weeks after he underwent outpatient surgery on his groin area, writes Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Abreu reported to Guaranteed Rate Field on Tuesday complaining of pain in his abdomen and was hospitalized prior to the start of the game. He figures to be formally placed on the 10-day disabled list tomorrow, giving the Sox an open roster spot. The ChiSox also lost Leury Garcia to a Grade 2 hamstring strain that could end his season, as he’s projected to miss anywhere from three to six weeks with the injury.
  • There’s heightened “concern” regarding Ervin Santana following the right-hander’s visit with a hand specialist, tweets Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Twins skipper Paul Molitor told reporters that Santana is slated to undergo followup x-rays and an MRI to further determine the extent of the damage in his still-ailing right middle finger. The organization isn’t sure whether Santana will return in 2018, but Molitor said that it’s looking “less likely.” Santana has made just five starts in 2018 and struggled to an 8.03 ERA after undergoing surgery on that finger back in February. The Twins hold a $14MM club option on him, but given his injuries and poor performance, that seems unlikely to be exercised.
  • The Indians could welcome Edwin Encarnacion back to the lineup as soon as Thursday, writes MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian, but they’ve received less encouraging news on outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall and right-hander Nick Goody. Chisenhall hasn’t progressed as quickly as the team would’ve hoped as he rehabs a severe calf strain and is still working his way back at the team’s Spring Training facility in Arizona, per manager Terry Francona. Goody, meanwhile, suffered a setback in his rehab from an elbow injury. He’s been shelved for three and a half months and is slated to meet with Dr. Keith Meister and Dr. James Andrews later this week.

Market Notes: Upton, Archer, Realmuto, Holland, Lynn

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Over at The Athletic, Pedro Moura held a fascinating conversation with Angels slugger Justin Upton. (Subscription link.) There’s plenty of interest in the chat, though Upton’s comments on free agency are of particular interest and relevance. The thrust of his sentiment is that teams seem to be looking to score free-agent value rather than identifying and “courting” players they actively wish to employ. “Teams don’t value players as people anymore,” says Upton. “They value them as a number on a sheet of paper.”

Of course, Upton forewent a chance at returning to the open market by agreeing to a deal with an organization he was comfortable with. Here’s the latest on the unusually high number of quality free agents still not in camp and other market notes:

  • The likelihood remains that the Rays will enter the season with Chris Archer on the staff, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports among other notes. That’s due in no small part to the team’s lofty asking price; one rival executive suggests that the Tampa Bay front office “wanted our whole farm system” to move Archer. The club has given that impression publicly, too. Senior VP of baseball ops Chaim Bloom reiterated that the expectation is to hang onto Archer and others in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). He added that the internal expectation is that it will begin to reap the rewards of an effort over recent years to bolster the farm depth while still trying to compete at the MLB level.
  • It has remained interesting to consider whether the Nationals might pry catcher J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins. But there isn’t much recent indication of serious talks, and Heyman indicates that’s due to what seems to be a big gulf in the sides’ valuations. Washington won’t give top prospects Victor Robles and Juan Soto, per the report; while the club might part with young infielder Carter Kieboom or outfielder Michael Taylor, it seems Miami was asking for too much additional talent to be included in a package.
  • The outfield market has certainly delivered some surprises thus far. Heyman says Jarrod Dyson spurned an early two-year, $14MM offer, though a source tells MLBTR that is not accurate. Dyson ultimately signed for $7.5MM with the Diamondbacks. It remains to be seen what’ll happen with players such as Carlos Gonzalez and Jon Jay, each of whom were rated among the fifty best free agents this winter by MLBTR. Heyman says the Indians are still looking at right-handed outfield bats, though it would surely be a surprise for the team to plunk down any meaningful money to make an addition. Perhaps the trade route could still hold some surprises, though that’s pure speculation on my part.
  • Veteran reliever Greg Holland might have overplayed his hand in spurning the Rockies earlier in the winter. Colorado was willing to give him something approaching the three-year, $51MM deal the team ultimately inked with Wade Davis, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests in an appearance on the podcast of Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. It’s premature, perhaps, to declare that Holland won’t be able to top that number, though it’s frankly difficult to see where that level of interest might come from — as MLBTR’s Steve Adams has recently explained.
  • Holland’s list of suitors is in question at the moment. One thing that seems clear, per Heyman, is that the Cubs aren’t planning on making a surprise run at the closer. Rather, Chicago seems largely committed to utilizing Brandon Morrow in the ninth inning and is likely to hold back its remaining payroll reserves for potential mid-season additions.
  • So, how low could the remaining pitchers go? Presumably there’s a point at which some bidding would occur. But it’s notable that, per ESPN 1500’s Darren Wolfson (podcast link), the Twins expressed interest in Lance Lynn in the range of just $10MM to $12MM over two seasons. Just how that level of interest came about and was expressed isn’t clear. The team has also made some fairly notable recent commitments and may just not have much more payroll flexibility. And it certainly shouldn’t be taken as evidence of Lynn’s current market value. Still, it’s interesting to learn that’s the current extent of Minnesota’s interest.

Angels Notes: Upton, Moreno, Trout, Pujols

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Rather than exercise a player opt-out clause in his previous contract, Justin Upton chose to avoid free agency by agreeing to a new five-year, $106MM contract to stay with the Angels.  Upton’s enjoyment of his time in Anaheim certainly played a role in his decision to remain, though as he told reporters (including the Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher), he was also wary of a long wait on the open market.  “I kind of got a little taste of it two years ago when I was a free agent,” Upton said. “I kind of understood the way the trend was going. At the end of the day, if you can avoid it, avoid it, because things are definitely changing.”  Upton tested free agency in the 2015-16 offseason and had to wait until mid-January to land a deal, though he did eventually land a very healthy six-year, $132.75MM commitment from the Tigers.  Upton’s presence would’ve certainly created a big ripple effect in this winter’s free agent class, though it’s also possible to think that he would’ve been one of the many other top names still looking for new teams as Spring Training camps open.

Some more Halos news…

  • Angels owner Arte Moreno met with the media (including MLB.com’s Maria Guardado) at the opening of his team’s spring camp to discuss several topics, including Mike Trout’s future in an Angels uniform.  Moreno said that there isn’t any particular rush to discuss another extension with Trout, though the idea is “always in our minds.  We’re always thinking about it.  It’s not only him, because we have other players.  But if you look at long-term plans, you’re always trying to position yourself properly when it’s time to do it.”  Trout’s previous extension (a six-year, $144.5MM deal) runs through the 2020 season and has to already be considered a major bargain, given Trout’s superstar-level play and the fact that he would’ve been a free agent this offseason had he not agreed to that deal.
  • With a projected luxury tax payroll of roughly $175MM and an Opening Day payroll of around $187MM in actual dollars, Moreno said his team has some flexibility to add players during the season if necessary.  The Angels have consistently spent big money under Moreno’s ownership, and while the results haven’t always matched the expenditures, Moreno said that he would “get out” of owning the team altogether rather than pursue a bare-bones rebuild in the style of the Astros or Cubs.
  • Albert Pujols’ last two offseasons were hampered by foot surgeries, so the slugger was happy to simply enjoy a normal winter and focus solely on training rather than rehabbing, he told Guardado and other reporters.  Pujols said he explored new training facilities and a regiment focused on agility and flexibility drills, which led to a weight loss of close to 15 pounds.  After suffering through easily the worst of his 17 MLB seasons, Pujols is hoping his better health leads to a big rebound year, particularly since the Angels are hoping for him to get more action at first base in order to free up DH at-bats for Shohei Ohtani.

Angels Sign Justin Upton To Five-Year Contract

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After spending the past several weeks weighing an opt-out clause that would’ve allowed him to forgo the remaining four years and $88.5MM on his contract, Justin Upton has reached a compromise with the Angels. The Halos announced on Thursday that they’ve signed Upton to a new five-year contract that runs through the 2022 campaign, in essence extending his current deal by one year in exchange for tearing up the opt-out provision. Upton, a client of Reynolds Sports Management, will reportedly earn $106MM on the five-year deal, which contains a full no-trade clause.

Justin Upton | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Upton’s deal can technically be viewed as a one-year, $17.5MM extension of his current contract, then, which brings the total value of the deal to $150.5MM over seven years. He’ll now reportedly earn $16MM in 2018, $18MM in 2019, $21MM in 2020, $23MM in 2021 and $28MM in 2022 on a contract that carries through his age-34 season.

[Related: Updated Los Angeles Angels payroll outlook and depth chart]

Los Angeles acquired Upton from the Tigers on Aug. 31 in exchange for pitching prospect Grayson Long and a player to be named later, hoping that Upton’s bat would help fuel a run at an American League Wild Card berth. While the Angels ultimately fell short of that goal, it was through no fault of Upton; in 115 plate appearances with the Angels, Upton nearly matched his OBP and slugging numbers with the Tigers, hitting .245/.357/.531 with seven homers in the season’s final month. Overall, he finished out the year with a .273/.361/.540 batting line, a career-high 35 homers and 14 steals.

Upton’s first year with the Tigers got off to a poor start, prompting many to question the initial six-year, $132MM contract before Upton righted the ship in Detroit about halfway through that 2016 campaign. Dating back to July 1 of last season, Upton has batted .270/.352/.548 with 58 home runs in 946 trips to the plate — good for a park- and league-adjusted wRC+ of 137. (In other words, his bat has bee about 37 percent better than that of a league-average hitter.)

Beyond his excellence at the plate, Upton turned in yet another solid year on the defensive end of the equation. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at +8, while Ultimate Zone Rating had him at 2.1 runs above average. Statcast’s new Outs Above Average metric was a bit less bullish, grading him at -1 outs. Despite the variance in those respective metrics, the Angels can reasonably expect at least average defensive contributions from Upton next year in addition to strong offense and above-average baserunning.

For the Angels, left field was a clear need whether a deal with Upton was worked out or not. The Halos are lacking in upper-level bats that can be relied upon to contribute to a big league lineup, but Upton will now join Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun in the Angels’ outfield and in the heart of their order. Aging slugger Albert Pujols, of course, remains a fixture in the lineup as well, though the soon-to-be 38-year-old struggled through the worst season of his Hall of Fame career in 2017.

The Pujols commitment remains an onerous financial obligation, but the Angels now have Josh Hamilton’s massive contract off the books, which will effectively be replaced by the Upton deal. Upton’s contract , though, will come with a lesser luxury tax obligation — $21.2MM annually if the contract is viewed as a five-year, $106MM deal or $21.46MM if it’s viewed as seven years and $150.25MM. The Angels will also see both Ricky Nolasco and Huston Street come off the books this winter once their options are declined, further creating some payroll flexibility, both as it pertains to the luxury tax and the 2018 roster.

The backloaded nature of Upton’s new contract structure should allow the Angels to be a bit more aggressive in filling out their 2018 roster this winter. Between Upton, Trout, Pujols, Calhoun, Andrelton Simmons and Luis Valbuena, the Angels have about $105MM in guaranteed 2018 salary on the books. That figure will rise into the $128MM range after Garrett Richards, Matt Shoemaker, Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney, Martin Maldonado, Blake Parker, Jose Alvarez, Cam Bedrosian and J.C.Ramirez are tendered contracts (and potentially more if C.J. Cron and Blake Wood are also tendered). That should leave the Angels with some spending money to address needs at second base and at an infield corner (whichever Valbuena does not play) in addition to stabilizing their injury-plagued pitching staff.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the total guarantee of the contract (Twitter link). ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted the annual breakdown of the deal, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi added that Upton received a no-trade clause.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Sorting The Skills Of The Best Free Agent Corner Outfielders

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Last night, I sorted the skills of the best free agent first basemen. While there are always a large number of free agent corner outfielders, this year there are three that stand high above the rest. Justin Upton (who can opt out of the remaining 4 years and $88MM on his current deal), J.D. Martinez and Jay Bruce all had great 2017 seasons, and all three are 30 years of age.

But the similarities don’t stop there. Each of those three corner outfielders smacked at least 35 homers while driving it at least 100 runs in 2017. All three were traded mid-season, making them ineligible for qualifying offers (though Upton wouldn’t have been able to receive one under the new CBA anyway, since he’s been issued a QO in a past season). All have averaged at least 550 plate appearances per season for the past three years. They even share the same first initial.

So what makes these three players different? Let’s start by taking a quick look at their fWAR.

One-Year Sample (2017)

  1. Upton – 5.0
  2. Martinez – 3.8
  3. Bruce – 2.7

Three-Year Sample (2015-2017)

  1. Martinez – 10.5
  2. Upton – 9.9
  3. Bruce – 3.7

Upton seems to have had the best overall 2017 season, while Martinez has been more valuable over the larger sample size. But each of these outfielders provide their value to prospective ballclubs in different ways. Here’s a breakdown of their skill sets.

Power

Isolated Power (ISO):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – .367
  2. Upton – .268
  3. Bruce – .254

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – .284
  2. Bruce – .239
  3. Upton – .230

Extra Base Hits Per Plate 100 Plate Appearances:

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 15.13
  2. Upton – 12.44
  3. Bruce – 10.85

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 12.39
  2. Bruce – 10.67
  3. Upton – 10.37

It’s no surprise that Martinez leads the way in the power department. Despite missing over a month of the 2017 season with an injury, he still managed to lead the group with 45 homers between the Tigers and Diamondbacks. Ever since his breakout year with the Tigers, he’s been a home run monster. While Upton was better in 2017, Bruce has an advantage over him when a three-year sample is taken into account, probably in part due to Upton’s poor start to 2016. Power is certainly not a weakness for any of these players, but Martinez is the runaway favorite in the pop department.

Plate Discipline

Strikeout Rate (K%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 22.5%
  2. Martinez – 26.2%
  3. Upton – 28.3%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 22.1%
  2. Martinez – 26.1%
  3. Upton – 27.5%

Walk Rate (BB%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 11.7%
  2. Martinez – 10.8%
  3. Bruce – 9.2%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 10.2%
  2. Martinez – 9.3%
  3. Bruce – 8.6%

Chase Rate on Pitches Outside the Strike Zone (O-Swing %):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 26.9%
  2. Bruce – 31.3%
  3. Martinez – 32.1%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 25.7%
  2. Bruce – 32.0%
  3. Martinez – 33.8%

All three of these players have been pretty consistent in their plate discipline skills across the past three seasons. While Upton seems to have a lot of swing and miss in his game, he chases a much lower percentage of bad pitches than do the others. He also draws more walks. We can probably say with some certainty that Martinez has the worst plate discipline of the group.

Contact Ability

Contact Rate (Contact %):

One-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 73.9%
  2. Upton – 71.7%
  3. Martinez – 71.2%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 75.8%
  2. Martinez – 72.0%
  3. Upton – 71.2%

Bruce would appear to have the best ability to make contact. It’s interesting to see that his contact rate is down so significantly from years past; hopefully this is not a sign of decline but rather a sign of change in approach. Martinez and Upton are close enough that we can basically consider this category a toss-up between those two.

Quality of Contact

Barrels Per 100 Plate Appearances:

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 12.3
  2. Upton – 7.9
  3. Bruce – 7.1

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 10.9
  2. Upton – 7.4
  3. Bruce – 6.4

Hard Contact Rate (Hard%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 49.0%
  2. Upton – 41.0%
  3. Bruce – 40.3%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 44.0%
  2. Upton – 38.1%
  3. Bruce – 37.9%

Average Exit Velocity, MPH (AEV):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 90.8
  2. Upton – 88.8
  3. Bruce – 88.3

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 91.2
  2. Upton – 90.1
  3. Bruce – 89.0

The numbers are completely consistent across categories and sample sizes; Martinez makes the highest-quality contact by a wide margin, with Upton being just a bit better than Bruce in each of these categories. It’s worth mentioning that Martinez’ 12.3 barrels per hundred plate appearances ranked second in all of baseball this year, behind only the Yankees’ Aaron Judge (12.8).

Offensive Versatility

wRC+ vs. Weak Platoon Side:

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 147
  2. Upton – 131
  3. Bruce – 88

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 141
  2. Upton – 120
  3. Bruce – 82

Pull Rate (Pull%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 38.3%
  2. Upton – 38.6%
  3. Bruce – 44.4%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 40.9%
  2. Martinez – 40.1%
  3. Bruce – 45.3%

Bruce’s value really falls off here. Martinez and Upton are both worse against righties than lefties, but still right-handers for well-above-average results. Bruce, on the other hand, is a below-average hitter against southpaws. Furthermore, Bruce is far more vulnerable to shifts than his counterparts, consistently pulling the ball far more often. Count Bruce a loser in this arena.

Baserunning

Fangraphs Baserunning Rating (BsR):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 4.0
  2. Bruce – [-2.1]
  3. Martinez – [-5.7]

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 10.2
  2. Bruce – [-6.7]
  3. Martinez [-11.2]

Statcast Sprint Speed, Feet Per Second:

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 27.6
  2. Martinez – 26.8
  3. Bruce – 26.5

Upton really separates himself in this regard, providing positive baserunning value while reaching a peak sprint speed nearly a full mile per hour better than his competitors. It’s probably best to use the one-year sample size here, as players don’t often end up getting faster after age 30. Martinez’ baserunning value works against him, but speed doesn’t matter as much when you’re hitting 45 balls out of the park.

Fielding

Ultimate Zone Rating Runs Per 150 Innings (UZR/150):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 3.5
  2. Bruce – 2.4
  3. Martinez – [-14.8]

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – [-0.3]
  2. Bruce – [-4.0]
  3. Martinez – [-7.2]

Defensive Runs Saved (DRS):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 8
  2. Bruce – 5
  3. Martinez – [-5]

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 17
  2. Bruce – [-1]
  3. Martinez – [-23]

Here, we see yet another area where Upton distinguishes himself. Upton rates as a far superior option to both Bruce and Martinez over a three-year sample size. If we’re to believe Bruce has genuinely made improvements to his glovework, this category could give his value a bit of a boost. To say Martinez is bad in the field would be an understatement. If he goes to an AL team, that might not matter quite as much. Still, his fielding skills are more likely than not to decline from this point on, and one has to wonder at what point his defense will become a liability.

While Upton and Martinez are probably obvious bets to make more than Bruce in free agency, all three players will ultimately sign lucrative multi-year contracts. Many teams are looking for corner outfielders, and each of these three outfielders provide something the others don’t. Due to his contact ability, Bruce could be a serviceable bargain signing for a team that has the ability to get on base and put the ball in play a lot. A team with a more ground ball-oriented starting staff might care slightly less about Martinez’ outfield defense. Upton’s whiff rate might not matter to teams that are more focused on scoring runs with the long ball. It will be fun to see how these factors influence the market for each of these players.

Angels Engaged In “Dialogue” With Justin Upton

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Angels outfielder Justin Upton is still weighing his opt-out decision, which promises to have widespread ramifications for the free-agent market. But as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports, the club isn’t just sitting back and waiting to learn Upton’s fate.

Rather, Halos GM Billy Eppler says “there is dialogue going on” between the sides, citing a “positive conversation” with Upton and his agent, Larry Reynolds. He did not divulge details beyond that, quite understandably, so it’s not entirely clear just what was discussed. But it certainly seems as if the team is taking a proactive approach in the hopes that Upton will remain in an Angels uniform for 2018 and beyond.

Upton can choose to enter the open market — which he’d do free and clear of any qualifying-offer-related draft compensation — or elect instead to keep the four-year, $88.5MM guarantee remaining on his contract. The Angels are surely hoping to convince Upton to stay, though we don’t know anything else about the substance of the chatter. Beyond pitching Upton on the organization, it’s not known whether some additional inducement has or could be contemplated. In theory, though, the sides could completely re-work the contract, modify it in some way, or instead just continue their discussion into free agency.

Unusual circumstances surrounded the 30-year-old Upton’s move out west. Despite the presence of the opt-out provision, the club acquired him from the Tigers at the last possible moment — during the revocable trade period, on August 31st, the last day that teams could add outside players who’d be eligible for the postseason. Righty Grayson Long and a player to be named or cash went to Detroit in the deal, which included no assurances or future considerations regarding Upton’s remaining contract (or lack thereof).

Upton played well in Los Angeles, though the club fell shy of the postseason. Through 115 plate appearances, he slashed .245/.357/.531 with seven home runs — good for a 137 OPS+ that matched his output over his first 125 games on the year with the Tigers. Though Upton has had a few productivity dips in his eleven-year career, he carries an excellent .269/.348/.479 cumulative batting line through more than six thousand trips to the plate at the game’s highest level.

Youth is still mostly on Upton’s side. So are defensive metrics, which see him as a solid-to-excellent fielder in left. In the aggregate, it’s fairly easy to make out a case for Upton commanding a guarantee of $20MM or more annually for a five- or six-year term — as he received the last time he went to the open market. Now that the risks of playing out the season are in the past, he doesn’t have much reason to take a (hypothetical) offer from the Angels before testing the broader market, though perhaps he could try to gain a sweetener if he’s at all inclined to avoid the risks of free agency by declining the opt-out opportunity.

Heyman’s Latest: Colon, Cashner, Vargas, Upton, Bridwell, Marlins, Cardinals

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Here’s the latest hot stove buzz from FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman, from his weekly collections of American League notes and National League notes…

  • Bartolo Colon feels he can play “just one” more season.  A return in 2018 would make it 21 seasons in the big leagues for Colon, who turns 45 in May.  The veteran has become a fan favorite around baseball thanks to his unlikely late-career revival, though Colon finally started to look his age in 2017, posting a 6.48 ERA over 143 innings with the Twins and Braves.  Despite his recent struggles, Colon seems to be a likely candidate to land a low-cost MLB contract with a team next year, given his lengthy track record.
  • The Rangers are considering issuing a qualifying offer to Andrew Cashner.  This would ensure that Texas received some draft pick compensation if Cashner rejected the QO, though given the Rangers’ need for pitching, they could welcome the chance to bring back Cashner on a one-year deal.  Still, since the QO carries a hefty cost of $18.1MM, it is still a little surprising that Texas is considering issuing one to Cashner, who is a decent candidate to accept.  MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently covered Cashner’s interesting offseason case in a Free Agent Stock Watch piece, outlining the many pros and cons suitors face in weighing a Cashner this winter.
  • In less-surprising qualifying offer news, the Royals are a virtual lock to extend the QO to Lorenzo Cain but aren’t planning to issue one to Jason Vargas.  Tommy John surgery sidelined Vargas for much of his three-year stint in Kansas City, though he was mostly effective (4.16 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.31 K/BB rate) over 179 2/3 IP in 2017.  Given that TJ surgery and the fact that Vargas turns 35 in February, he’d seem to be a good candidate to accept a qualifying offer, and the Royals probably don’t want an $18.1MM salary on the books as they embark on a possible rebuild.
  • There apparently haven’t been any talks between the Angels and Justin Upton about his opt-out clause, which Heyman finds “interesting.”  There isn’t any immediate rush, of course, as Upton doesn’t need to make his decision until three days after the World Series is over.  “Most see it as a very close call” as to whether Upton will actually opt out of the four years and $88.5MM remaining on his deal given the mutual interest between he and the Angels.  The possibility exists that the two sides could work out an extension to tack another year or two beyond the current end of Upton’s deal, though the lack of talks indicates that scenario has yet to be explored.
  • The Angels initially tried to acquire Parker Bridwell from the Orioles last year before finally landing the right-hander in April for what Heyman describes as “just a small amount of cash.”  This minor deal at the time ended up being a steal for the Halos, as Bridwell delivered a 3.64 ERA over 121 innings, starting 20 of his 21 appearances for Los Angeles.
  • According to one Marlins player, the Cardinals reportedly expressed interest in Marcell Ozuna, Dee Gordon and Brad Ziegler this summer, with Ziegler’s name surfacing after Trevor Rosenthal was lost to Tommy John surgery in late August.  The Cards’ interest in Ozuna (and other Miami outfielders) is known, though this is the first time Gordon and Ziegler have been linked to St. Louis.  It makes sense that the Cards would’ve checked in on Ziegler given their sudden need for relief help after Rosenthal went down, though it remains to be seen if Ziegler would be a trade target this winter as the team looks to bolster its pen.  Ziegler has a hefty $9MM salary in 2018, though the Marlins could eat some of that money to make a deal happen.  Gordon would be an even pricier addition at $38MM owed through the 2020 season, plus a $14MM vesting option for 2021.

Quick Hits: Dusty, Upton, Giants, Mets, Eiland

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Dusty Baker’s contract is up after the Nationals’ postseason run is over, though his future as manager isn’t contingent on a first-round playoff victory, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post writes as part of a reader mailbag piece (with fellow Post scribe Jorge Castillo).  Nats ownership likes Baker and wants him to keep managing if he’s still willing and able, though an extension hasn’t been worked out since that just isn’t how the Lerner family handles business with managers.  Baker told Janes and other reporters today that he was informed that “we’re gonna wait til after the season” to discuss a possible new deal.

Here’s more from around baseball as the Yankees are off to the ALDS…

  • It is “increasingly likely” that Justin Upton will choose to opt out of the remaining four years and $88.5MM remaining on his contract, a source tells MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi.  Upton’s outstanding 2017 season gives him a strong case to look for a larger deal in free agency this winter, though opting out doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll leave the Angels.  Morosi notes that Upton could use the opt-out clause as a way to leverage an extension from the Halos, as C.C. Sabathia did with the Yankees six years ago.
  • Power and outfield defense are both needs for the Giants this winter, though as team executives told reporters (including Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle and MLB.com’s Jonathan Hawthorne) today, the team won’t sacrifice the latter for the sake of the former.  “We don’t want to get too far away from our game,” GM Bobby Evans said.  “We’re a pitching and defense team.  If we compromise too much in the area of power and give up to much defensively, that can hurt us as much as the benefit of adding the power.”  A younger and more athletic outfield seems like a priority, and Schulman feels this might rule out a run at 31-year-old free agent Lorenzo Cain.  In my view, Cain’s excellent glove would seem to make a good fit for the Giants, though his defensive metrics did decline (from great to “merely” quite good) in 2017.
  • The Giants will look to add at all three outfield positions, as incumbent outfielders Denard Span and Hunter Pence could be in line for position changes.  Span, according to manager Bruce Bochy, is “all in” about moving from center to left field.  This wouldn’t seem to leave much room for Pence to move from right field, though Schulman suggests that Span and Pence could both share a position.  That would be a very expensive solution considering that Span and Pence will combine to earn $30.5MM in 2018, though since both also have notable injury histories, a time-share could help keep both players healthy.
  • Outgoing Royals pitching coach Dave Eiland looks like a candidate for the Mets’ own pitching coach vacancy, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets.  Eiland has spent the last six years with the Royals and has some prior experience in the Big Apple, serving as the Yankees’ pitching coach from 2008-10.

AL West Notes: Perez, Morton, Upton, Erasmo

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The Rangers have already told Martin Perez that they will exercise their $6MM option on the left-hander’s services, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan reports.  Teams have until five days after the World Series to decide on all contract options so nothing is official yet between Perez and the Rangers (we’ll have the news here on MLBTR when this move and other option decisions are finalized), though it was widely expected that Perez would be retained.  The Rangers would’ve had to pay $2.45MM in a buyout, so it was an easy call to spend the extra $3.55MM on Perez, who has delivered 3.8 fWAR and 377 2/3 innings over the last two seasons.  Texas also has club options on Perez for 2019 and 2020.

Here’s more from around the AL West…

  • Charlie Morton may call it a career after the 2018 season, the Astros right-hander told MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link).  Morton turns 35 in November 2018 and has battled several injuries throughout his career, though he is wrapping up one of the most successful of his ten seasons in the big leagues.  His unique enjoyment of his Astros experience, however, is actually one of the factors in Morton’s reasoning: “The group we have here is so good….The most valuable thing you have is time, and these are the guys I’m investing that in.  I can only think of a couple other groups I was with, where I look back and say ’That was really good.  That was worth it.’  It would be a search for that feeling, when you go in a clubhouse and like being with that group.  Here, you’re doing something meaningful — with everything that’s going on in the city….This is a moment to be cherished and valued.”
  • In other Morton-related news, he made his 25th start of the season tonight, which Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle notes triggered a $625K bonus in the Astros righty’s contract.  Morton also received $625K bonuses for hitting the 15-start and 20-start thresholds, so he’ll tack an extra $1.875MM onto his $7MM base salary for the 2017 season.  Morton also has the same base salary and bonus structure in place for 2018.
  • “Winning” is the only factor that will go into Justin Upton’s decision about opting out of his contract, he tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.  Of course, Upton faces a significant financial decision if he chooses to forego the $88.5MM remaining on his contract to re-enter free agency, though Fletcher notes that Upton could prioritize playing for a contender since he has already earned over $95MM in his career.  The Angels, of course, made a run at a wild card this year and could offer Upton that chance of playing for a winner, as the club will have some money to spend on needed upgrades this winter.
  • The Mariners “didn’t know quite what we were getting” when Erasmo Ramirez was re-acquired by the Rays, Seattle manager Scott Servais tells Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune, but the right-hander has now established himself as a potential rotation candidate for the 2018 squad.  After working for several years as a swingman, Ramirez became a full-time starter after his trade to the Mariners and the results were impressive — 3.92 ERA, 7.8 K/9 and 3.60 K/BB over 62 innings (11 starts).  Ramirez’s emergence is a boost to a Seattle team that is looking for healthy and reliable starting pitching this winter.

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