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Justin Upton

Health Notes: Tatis Jr., Upton, Price, Diaz, K. Davis

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The Padres are hoping shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. will return May 24, the start of a six-game road trip for the club, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Tatis went to the injured list on April 30 with a hamstring strain, temporarily derailing a phenomenal start to the 20-year-old rookie’s career. The Padres have had the luxury of using Manny Machado at short to fill in for Tatis, but moving the former off third base has left the hot corner to the light-hitting Ty France.

Here’s more on several other household names dealing with injuries…

  • Angels left fielder Justin Upton remains a ways off from making his 2019 debut, as he explained to Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register and other reporters Saturday. That’s not surprising, though, considering Upton was slated to miss eight to 12 weeks when he went down with a toe injury at the end of March. While Upton is one of the Angels’ best complements to Mike Trout, his absence hasn’t been ruinous thanks to the surprisingly great offensive production waiver pickup Brian Goodwin has offered in his place.
  • Red Sox left-hander David Price will come off the IL to start Monday, manager Alex Cora told reporters, including Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Price will end up missing exactly two weeks after heading to the shelf with elbow tendinitis May 6. Before that, Price followed up last fall’s playoff heroics with a 3.75 ERA/3.42 FIP and a career-high 10.5 K/9 across 36 frames.
  • Utilityman Aledmys Diaz left the Astros’ game Friday with a Grade 1 left hamstring strain, manager AJ Hinch announced (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). The injury doesn’t seem as if it will require an IL stint, though, as Hinch noted Diaz “could possibly be back as early as next series.” Diaz had been filling in at second base since last weekend, when the team placed starter Jose Altuve on the IL, and produced at a white-hot clip before going down with his own injury. Hinch indicated the Astros will turn to Yuli Gurriel at second and Tyler White at first for however long Diaz is out.
  • Athletics designated hitter Khris Davis incurred a left hip injury on May 5, and the issue continues to trouble him nearly two full weeks later, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com relays. Davis said Saturday he’s “not 100 hundred percent,” which caused the Athletics to scratch him from their lineup. Manager Bob Melvin admitted there’s “a little bit of concern” for the 31-year-old Davis, who was eminently durable with the A’s from 2016-18, though he’s hopeful the slugger will be OK by Sunday.

Justin Upton To Miss Eight To Twelve Weeks

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The Angels anticipate that outfielder Justin Upton will miss eight to twelve weeks of action, manage Brad Ausmus told reporters including MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger (Twitter link). He had previously been diagnosed with a turf toe injury that turned out to be quite a bit more problematic than had been anticipated.

It’s rather poor news for the Halos, who already faced a tough road to the postseason this year. Upton and Shohei Ohtani supplemented Mike Trout last year in the middle of the lineup. Now both Upton and Ohtani are on the shelf; though the latter is making progress toward a return, it’ll still be at least a few more weeks before he’s back.

Upton slashed .257/.344/.463 last year, with thirty long balls in his 613 plate appearances. That’s actually a step back from his big 2017 campaign. Over a dozen years in the bigs, Upton carries a .268/.348/.478 batting line — just what he put up last year and just what might reasonably have been expected in 2019.

There’s simply no way the Angels will be able to replace that sort of productivity. The light-hitting Peter Bourjos had been on track to serve as a fourth outfielder after signing a minors deal. Instead he’ll platoon with Brian Goodwin, who was just picked up after being cut loose by the Royals.

That pair will hold down the fort for the time being. The front office could look for creative opportunities to upgrade, but it’s hard to imagine any particularly appealing names coming available. GM Billy Eppler all but snuffed out that possibility, saying he didn’t think an outside addition would take place. (Also via Bollinger, on Twitter.)

Neither does it seem the team can hope for much help from within. The depth options on hand were deemed inferior to Bourjos and Goodwin already. And there aren’t any particularly exciting upper-level prospects. Unfortunately, the club’s most talented pre-MLB player, Jo Adell, was slowed this spring with injuries to his ankle and hamstring that figure to keep him on ice until the summer. Even if the club was willing to consider an aggressive promotion timeline, he’ll need to get back to full strength first.

Justin Upton To Open Season On Injured List

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Angels outfielder Justin Upton has been diagnosed with turf toe, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports on Twitter. He’ll be added to the injured list for the start of the season.

That’s unfortunate news for the Halos, particularly at this stage of camp and with Shohei Ohtani still building back. It’s not yet clear how long Upton will be sidelined, but he’ll surely be brought along cautiously to ensure that this issue doesn’t linger.

The Angels don’t exactly have an appealing back-up plan, but they’ll have to make do without Upton for at least a few weeks. There are only three other outfielders on the 40-man roster at this point: Michael Hermosillo, who’s expected to be on the IL as well, and stalwarts Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun. Peter Bourjos could end up seeing the lion’s share of time. Fellow non-roster invitees Cesar Puello and Jarrett Parker are also possibilities, though the latter is also not at full health at the moment.

Quick Hits: Buxton, Upton, Nationals, A’s

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The Twins won’t be recalling Byron Buxton to the Major League roster, a decision that puts the team in line to gain an extra year of control over the young outfielder.  The situation has already created controversy, and there seems to be at least a chance that Buxton and his representatives at Jet Sports Management could look into filing a grievance with the league.  In a statement to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required), agency owner B.B. Abbott said “We will examine this against the rights provided to all players under the CBA.  Until then, we will let Twins fans form their own opinions about this decision.”  MLBPA executive director Tony Clark also commented on Buxton, saying that the union “will review all options with Byron and his representatives.”

Minnesota GM Thad Levine did mention that the team was aware of Buxton’s service time circumstances, and Rosenthal is skeptical about the three larger factors (concerns about the wrist injury that sent Buxton to the DL, a lack of room in the Twins outfield, and “a performance standpoint factor“) that Levine cited as the chief reasons for Buxton remaining in Triple-A.  Buxton has not only been healthy enough to play regularly in Triple-A, Rosenthal observes, but the outfielder has also been hitting quite well in recent games.  Rosenthal wonders if the Twins’ desire to retain Buxton for an extra season will cost them in the long run, as Buxton may now be soured on signing a longer-term extension to remain in Minnesota beyond 2022.

Here’s more from around baseball on this Labor Day weekend…

  • Justin Upton suffered a concussion while avoiding a collision with Angels teammate Andrelton Simmons during Saturday’s game, the outfielder told MLB.com’s Maria Guardado and other reporters.  Upton came out of the game and didn’t play on Sunday, as he’ll be out of action until his symptoms fully subside.  Upton’s first full season in a Halos uniform has been an impressive one, as the 31-year-old has 26 homers and a .265/.349/.467 slash line over 533 plate appearances.
  • The Nationals will activate right-hander Erick Fedde from the 60-day DL to start Tuesday’s game, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes.  Fedde has been sidelined with inflammation in his throwing shoulder, the latest in a series of injuries that has set back his young career.  Fedde has only 43 1/3 Major League innings to his name over 2017-18, though he’ll get a chance at showcasing himself in September.  As Zuckerman notes, the Nationals may use Gio Gonzalez’s former rotation spot to give starts to multiple young arms, including Fedde and possibly Joe Ross, who is on track to make his return from Tommy John surgery sometime this month.
  • With the Athletics rolling, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle wonders why the team hasn’t extended manager Bob Melvin, who is only under contract through the 2019 season.  Failing to keep Melvin (or, for that matter, baseball operations head Billy Beane and GM David Forst) from “lame-duck status” in the final year of their deals threatens to undermine the progress that the A’s have made this season, Shea opines.  Back in June, the Chronicle’s Susan Slusser reported that there some belief that the team’s upper management wouldn’t retain Beane, Forst, and/or Melvin beyond the end of their current contracts.  If this was ownership’s plan, however, one wonders if things have changed in the wake of the Athletics’ hot streak and return to contention.

Injury Notes: Upton, Abreu, Garcia, Ervin, Goody, Chisenhall

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The Angels announced Tuesday that they’ve placed outfielder Justin Upton on the 10-day disabled list due to a laceration on his index finger. Jack Magruder of MLB.com writes that Upton required stitches after he sustained a severe cut at his home on a wine glass that had broken. Upton expressed frustration and regret over incurring an off-field injury in this manner, though it sounds as if he’ll only require a short-term absence from the team. The Angels aren’t contending for the postseason anyhow, but Upton would surely like to be on the field competing and pursuing a third consecutive 30-homer season. The slugger is in the first season of a five-year, $106MM extension with the Angels and has batted .267/.352/.474 with 26 big flies on the year.

Some more injury news from around the league…

  • The White Sox will be without Jose Abreu for the next two weeks after he underwent outpatient surgery on his groin area, writes Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Abreu reported to Guaranteed Rate Field on Tuesday complaining of pain in his abdomen and was hospitalized prior to the start of the game. He figures to be formally placed on the 10-day disabled list tomorrow, giving the Sox an open roster spot. The ChiSox also lost Leury Garcia to a Grade 2 hamstring strain that could end his season, as he’s projected to miss anywhere from three to six weeks with the injury.
  • There’s heightened “concern” regarding Ervin Santana following the right-hander’s visit with a hand specialist, tweets Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Twins skipper Paul Molitor told reporters that Santana is slated to undergo followup x-rays and an MRI to further determine the extent of the damage in his still-ailing right middle finger. The organization isn’t sure whether Santana will return in 2018, but Molitor said that it’s looking “less likely.” Santana has made just five starts in 2018 and struggled to an 8.03 ERA after undergoing surgery on that finger back in February. The Twins hold a $14MM club option on him, but given his injuries and poor performance, that seems unlikely to be exercised.
  • The Indians could welcome Edwin Encarnacion back to the lineup as soon as Thursday, writes MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian, but they’ve received less encouraging news on outfielder Lonnie Chisenhall and right-hander Nick Goody. Chisenhall hasn’t progressed as quickly as the team would’ve hoped as he rehabs a severe calf strain and is still working his way back at the team’s Spring Training facility in Arizona, per manager Terry Francona. Goody, meanwhile, suffered a setback in his rehab from an elbow injury. He’s been shelved for three and a half months and is slated to meet with Dr. Keith Meister and Dr. James Andrews later this week.

Market Notes: Upton, Archer, Realmuto, Holland, Lynn

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Over at The Athletic, Pedro Moura held a fascinating conversation with Angels slugger Justin Upton. (Subscription link.) There’s plenty of interest in the chat, though Upton’s comments on free agency are of particular interest and relevance. The thrust of his sentiment is that teams seem to be looking to score free-agent value rather than identifying and “courting” players they actively wish to employ. “Teams don’t value players as people anymore,” says Upton. “They value them as a number on a sheet of paper.”

Of course, Upton forewent a chance at returning to the open market by agreeing to a deal with an organization he was comfortable with. Here’s the latest on the unusually high number of quality free agents still not in camp and other market notes:

  • The likelihood remains that the Rays will enter the season with Chris Archer on the staff, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports among other notes. That’s due in no small part to the team’s lofty asking price; one rival executive suggests that the Tampa Bay front office “wanted our whole farm system” to move Archer. The club has given that impression publicly, too. Senior VP of baseball ops Chaim Bloom reiterated that the expectation is to hang onto Archer and others in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). He added that the internal expectation is that it will begin to reap the rewards of an effort over recent years to bolster the farm depth while still trying to compete at the MLB level.
  • It has remained interesting to consider whether the Nationals might pry catcher J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins. But there isn’t much recent indication of serious talks, and Heyman indicates that’s due to what seems to be a big gulf in the sides’ valuations. Washington won’t give top prospects Victor Robles and Juan Soto, per the report; while the club might part with young infielder Carter Kieboom or outfielder Michael Taylor, it seems Miami was asking for too much additional talent to be included in a package.
  • The outfield market has certainly delivered some surprises thus far. Heyman says Jarrod Dyson spurned an early two-year, $14MM offer, though a source tells MLBTR that is not accurate. Dyson ultimately signed for $7.5MM with the Diamondbacks. It remains to be seen what’ll happen with players such as Carlos Gonzalez and Jon Jay, each of whom were rated among the fifty best free agents this winter by MLBTR. Heyman says the Indians are still looking at right-handed outfield bats, though it would surely be a surprise for the team to plunk down any meaningful money to make an addition. Perhaps the trade route could still hold some surprises, though that’s pure speculation on my part.
  • Veteran reliever Greg Holland might have overplayed his hand in spurning the Rockies earlier in the winter. Colorado was willing to give him something approaching the three-year, $51MM deal the team ultimately inked with Wade Davis, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests in an appearance on the podcast of Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. It’s premature, perhaps, to declare that Holland won’t be able to top that number, though it’s frankly difficult to see where that level of interest might come from — as MLBTR’s Steve Adams has recently explained.
  • Holland’s list of suitors is in question at the moment. One thing that seems clear, per Heyman, is that the Cubs aren’t planning on making a surprise run at the closer. Rather, Chicago seems largely committed to utilizing Brandon Morrow in the ninth inning and is likely to hold back its remaining payroll reserves for potential mid-season additions.
  • So, how low could the remaining pitchers go? Presumably there’s a point at which some bidding would occur. But it’s notable that, per ESPN 1500’s Darren Wolfson (podcast link), the Twins expressed interest in Lance Lynn in the range of just $10MM to $12MM over two seasons. Just how that level of interest came about and was expressed isn’t clear. The team has also made some fairly notable recent commitments and may just not have much more payroll flexibility. And it certainly shouldn’t be taken as evidence of Lynn’s current market value. Still, it’s interesting to learn that’s the current extent of Minnesota’s interest.

Angels Notes: Upton, Moreno, Trout, Pujols

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Rather than exercise a player opt-out clause in his previous contract, Justin Upton chose to avoid free agency by agreeing to a new five-year, $106MM contract to stay with the Angels.  Upton’s enjoyment of his time in Anaheim certainly played a role in his decision to remain, though as he told reporters (including the Orange County Register’s Jeff Fletcher), he was also wary of a long wait on the open market.  “I kind of got a little taste of it two years ago when I was a free agent,” Upton said. “I kind of understood the way the trend was going. At the end of the day, if you can avoid it, avoid it, because things are definitely changing.”  Upton tested free agency in the 2015-16 offseason and had to wait until mid-January to land a deal, though he did eventually land a very healthy six-year, $132.75MM commitment from the Tigers.  Upton’s presence would’ve certainly created a big ripple effect in this winter’s free agent class, though it’s also possible to think that he would’ve been one of the many other top names still looking for new teams as Spring Training camps open.

Some more Halos news…

  • Angels owner Arte Moreno met with the media (including MLB.com’s Maria Guardado) at the opening of his team’s spring camp to discuss several topics, including Mike Trout’s future in an Angels uniform.  Moreno said that there isn’t any particular rush to discuss another extension with Trout, though the idea is “always in our minds.  We’re always thinking about it.  It’s not only him, because we have other players.  But if you look at long-term plans, you’re always trying to position yourself properly when it’s time to do it.”  Trout’s previous extension (a six-year, $144.5MM deal) runs through the 2020 season and has to already be considered a major bargain, given Trout’s superstar-level play and the fact that he would’ve been a free agent this offseason had he not agreed to that deal.
  • With a projected luxury tax payroll of roughly $175MM and an Opening Day payroll of around $187MM in actual dollars, Moreno said his team has some flexibility to add players during the season if necessary.  The Angels have consistently spent big money under Moreno’s ownership, and while the results haven’t always matched the expenditures, Moreno said that he would “get out” of owning the team altogether rather than pursue a bare-bones rebuild in the style of the Astros or Cubs.
  • Albert Pujols’ last two offseasons were hampered by foot surgeries, so the slugger was happy to simply enjoy a normal winter and focus solely on training rather than rehabbing, he told Guardado and other reporters.  Pujols said he explored new training facilities and a regiment focused on agility and flexibility drills, which led to a weight loss of close to 15 pounds.  After suffering through easily the worst of his 17 MLB seasons, Pujols is hoping his better health leads to a big rebound year, particularly since the Angels are hoping for him to get more action at first base in order to free up DH at-bats for Shohei Ohtani.

Angels Sign Justin Upton To Five-Year Contract

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After spending the past several weeks weighing an opt-out clause that would’ve allowed him to forgo the remaining four years and $88.5MM on his contract, Justin Upton has reached a compromise with the Angels. The Halos announced on Thursday that they’ve signed Upton to a new five-year contract that runs through the 2022 campaign, in essence extending his current deal by one year in exchange for tearing up the opt-out provision. Upton, a client of Reynolds Sports Management, will reportedly earn $106MM on the five-year deal, which contains a full no-trade clause.

Justin Upton | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Upton’s deal can technically be viewed as a one-year, $17.5MM extension of his current contract, then, which brings the total value of the deal to $150.5MM over seven years. He’ll now reportedly earn $16MM in 2018, $18MM in 2019, $21MM in 2020, $23MM in 2021 and $28MM in 2022 on a contract that carries through his age-34 season.

[Related: Updated Los Angeles Angels payroll outlook and depth chart]

Los Angeles acquired Upton from the Tigers on Aug. 31 in exchange for pitching prospect Grayson Long and a player to be named later, hoping that Upton’s bat would help fuel a run at an American League Wild Card berth. While the Angels ultimately fell short of that goal, it was through no fault of Upton; in 115 plate appearances with the Angels, Upton nearly matched his OBP and slugging numbers with the Tigers, hitting .245/.357/.531 with seven homers in the season’s final month. Overall, he finished out the year with a .273/.361/.540 batting line, a career-high 35 homers and 14 steals.

Upton’s first year with the Tigers got off to a poor start, prompting many to question the initial six-year, $132MM contract before Upton righted the ship in Detroit about halfway through that 2016 campaign. Dating back to July 1 of last season, Upton has batted .270/.352/.548 with 58 home runs in 946 trips to the plate — good for a park- and league-adjusted wRC+ of 137. (In other words, his bat has bee about 37 percent better than that of a league-average hitter.)

Beyond his excellence at the plate, Upton turned in yet another solid year on the defensive end of the equation. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at +8, while Ultimate Zone Rating had him at 2.1 runs above average. Statcast’s new Outs Above Average metric was a bit less bullish, grading him at -1 outs. Despite the variance in those respective metrics, the Angels can reasonably expect at least average defensive contributions from Upton next year in addition to strong offense and above-average baserunning.

For the Angels, left field was a clear need whether a deal with Upton was worked out or not. The Halos are lacking in upper-level bats that can be relied upon to contribute to a big league lineup, but Upton will now join Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun in the Angels’ outfield and in the heart of their order. Aging slugger Albert Pujols, of course, remains a fixture in the lineup as well, though the soon-to-be 38-year-old struggled through the worst season of his Hall of Fame career in 2017.

The Pujols commitment remains an onerous financial obligation, but the Angels now have Josh Hamilton’s massive contract off the books, which will effectively be replaced by the Upton deal. Upton’s contract , though, will come with a lesser luxury tax obligation — $21.2MM annually if the contract is viewed as a five-year, $106MM deal or $21.46MM if it’s viewed as seven years and $150.25MM. The Angels will also see both Ricky Nolasco and Huston Street come off the books this winter once their options are declined, further creating some payroll flexibility, both as it pertains to the luxury tax and the 2018 roster.

The backloaded nature of Upton’s new contract structure should allow the Angels to be a bit more aggressive in filling out their 2018 roster this winter. Between Upton, Trout, Pujols, Calhoun, Andrelton Simmons and Luis Valbuena, the Angels have about $105MM in guaranteed 2018 salary on the books. That figure will rise into the $128MM range after Garrett Richards, Matt Shoemaker, Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney, Martin Maldonado, Blake Parker, Jose Alvarez, Cam Bedrosian and J.C.Ramirez are tendered contracts (and potentially more if C.J. Cron and Blake Wood are also tendered). That should leave the Angels with some spending money to address needs at second base and at an infield corner (whichever Valbuena does not play) in addition to stabilizing their injury-plagued pitching staff.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the total guarantee of the contract (Twitter link). ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted the annual breakdown of the deal, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi added that Upton received a no-trade clause.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Sorting The Skills Of The Best Free Agent Corner Outfielders

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Last night, I sorted the skills of the best free agent first basemen. While there are always a large number of free agent corner outfielders, this year there are three that stand high above the rest. Justin Upton (who can opt out of the remaining 4 years and $88MM on his current deal), J.D. Martinez and Jay Bruce all had great 2017 seasons, and all three are 30 years of age.

But the similarities don’t stop there. Each of those three corner outfielders smacked at least 35 homers while driving it at least 100 runs in 2017. All three were traded mid-season, making them ineligible for qualifying offers (though Upton wouldn’t have been able to receive one under the new CBA anyway, since he’s been issued a QO in a past season). All have averaged at least 550 plate appearances per season for the past three years. They even share the same first initial.

So what makes these three players different? Let’s start by taking a quick look at their fWAR.

One-Year Sample (2017)

  1. Upton – 5.0
  2. Martinez – 3.8
  3. Bruce – 2.7

Three-Year Sample (2015-2017)

  1. Martinez – 10.5
  2. Upton – 9.9
  3. Bruce – 3.7

Upton seems to have had the best overall 2017 season, while Martinez has been more valuable over the larger sample size. But each of these outfielders provide their value to prospective ballclubs in different ways. Here’s a breakdown of their skill sets.

Power

Isolated Power (ISO):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – .367
  2. Upton – .268
  3. Bruce – .254

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – .284
  2. Bruce – .239
  3. Upton – .230

Extra Base Hits Per Plate 100 Plate Appearances:

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 15.13
  2. Upton – 12.44
  3. Bruce – 10.85

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 12.39
  2. Bruce – 10.67
  3. Upton – 10.37

It’s no surprise that Martinez leads the way in the power department. Despite missing over a month of the 2017 season with an injury, he still managed to lead the group with 45 homers between the Tigers and Diamondbacks. Ever since his breakout year with the Tigers, he’s been a home run monster. While Upton was better in 2017, Bruce has an advantage over him when a three-year sample is taken into account, probably in part due to Upton’s poor start to 2016. Power is certainly not a weakness for any of these players, but Martinez is the runaway favorite in the pop department.

Plate Discipline

Strikeout Rate (K%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 22.5%
  2. Martinez – 26.2%
  3. Upton – 28.3%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 22.1%
  2. Martinez – 26.1%
  3. Upton – 27.5%

Walk Rate (BB%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 11.7%
  2. Martinez – 10.8%
  3. Bruce – 9.2%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 10.2%
  2. Martinez – 9.3%
  3. Bruce – 8.6%

Chase Rate on Pitches Outside the Strike Zone (O-Swing %):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 26.9%
  2. Bruce – 31.3%
  3. Martinez – 32.1%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 25.7%
  2. Bruce – 32.0%
  3. Martinez – 33.8%

All three of these players have been pretty consistent in their plate discipline skills across the past three seasons. While Upton seems to have a lot of swing and miss in his game, he chases a much lower percentage of bad pitches than do the others. He also draws more walks. We can probably say with some certainty that Martinez has the worst plate discipline of the group.

Contact Ability

Contact Rate (Contact %):

One-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 73.9%
  2. Upton – 71.7%
  3. Martinez – 71.2%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Bruce – 75.8%
  2. Martinez – 72.0%
  3. Upton – 71.2%

Bruce would appear to have the best ability to make contact. It’s interesting to see that his contact rate is down so significantly from years past; hopefully this is not a sign of decline but rather a sign of change in approach. Martinez and Upton are close enough that we can basically consider this category a toss-up between those two.

Quality of Contact

Barrels Per 100 Plate Appearances:

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 12.3
  2. Upton – 7.9
  3. Bruce – 7.1

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 10.9
  2. Upton – 7.4
  3. Bruce – 6.4

Hard Contact Rate (Hard%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 49.0%
  2. Upton – 41.0%
  3. Bruce – 40.3%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 44.0%
  2. Upton – 38.1%
  3. Bruce – 37.9%

Average Exit Velocity, MPH (AEV):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 90.8
  2. Upton – 88.8
  3. Bruce – 88.3

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 91.2
  2. Upton – 90.1
  3. Bruce – 89.0

The numbers are completely consistent across categories and sample sizes; Martinez makes the highest-quality contact by a wide margin, with Upton being just a bit better than Bruce in each of these categories. It’s worth mentioning that Martinez’ 12.3 barrels per hundred plate appearances ranked second in all of baseball this year, behind only the Yankees’ Aaron Judge (12.8).

Offensive Versatility

wRC+ vs. Weak Platoon Side:

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 147
  2. Upton – 131
  3. Bruce – 88

Three-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 141
  2. Upton – 120
  3. Bruce – 82

Pull Rate (Pull%):

One-Year Sample

  1. Martinez – 38.3%
  2. Upton – 38.6%
  3. Bruce – 44.4%

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 40.9%
  2. Martinez – 40.1%
  3. Bruce – 45.3%

Bruce’s value really falls off here. Martinez and Upton are both worse against righties than lefties, but still right-handers for well-above-average results. Bruce, on the other hand, is a below-average hitter against southpaws. Furthermore, Bruce is far more vulnerable to shifts than his counterparts, consistently pulling the ball far more often. Count Bruce a loser in this arena.

Baserunning

Fangraphs Baserunning Rating (BsR):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 4.0
  2. Bruce – [-2.1]
  3. Martinez – [-5.7]

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 10.2
  2. Bruce – [-6.7]
  3. Martinez [-11.2]

Statcast Sprint Speed, Feet Per Second:

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 27.6
  2. Martinez – 26.8
  3. Bruce – 26.5

Upton really separates himself in this regard, providing positive baserunning value while reaching a peak sprint speed nearly a full mile per hour better than his competitors. It’s probably best to use the one-year sample size here, as players don’t often end up getting faster after age 30. Martinez’ baserunning value works against him, but speed doesn’t matter as much when you’re hitting 45 balls out of the park.

Fielding

Ultimate Zone Rating Runs Per 150 Innings (UZR/150):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 3.5
  2. Bruce – 2.4
  3. Martinez – [-14.8]

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – [-0.3]
  2. Bruce – [-4.0]
  3. Martinez – [-7.2]

Defensive Runs Saved (DRS):

One-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 8
  2. Bruce – 5
  3. Martinez – [-5]

Three-Year Sample

  1. Upton – 17
  2. Bruce – [-1]
  3. Martinez – [-23]

Here, we see yet another area where Upton distinguishes himself. Upton rates as a far superior option to both Bruce and Martinez over a three-year sample size. If we’re to believe Bruce has genuinely made improvements to his glovework, this category could give his value a bit of a boost. To say Martinez is bad in the field would be an understatement. If he goes to an AL team, that might not matter quite as much. Still, his fielding skills are more likely than not to decline from this point on, and one has to wonder at what point his defense will become a liability.

While Upton and Martinez are probably obvious bets to make more than Bruce in free agency, all three players will ultimately sign lucrative multi-year contracts. Many teams are looking for corner outfielders, and each of these three outfielders provide something the others don’t. Due to his contact ability, Bruce could be a serviceable bargain signing for a team that has the ability to get on base and put the ball in play a lot. A team with a more ground ball-oriented starting staff might care slightly less about Martinez’ outfield defense. Upton’s whiff rate might not matter to teams that are more focused on scoring runs with the long ball. It will be fun to see how these factors influence the market for each of these players.

Angels Engaged In “Dialogue” With Justin Upton

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Angels outfielder Justin Upton is still weighing his opt-out decision, which promises to have widespread ramifications for the free-agent market. But as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports, the club isn’t just sitting back and waiting to learn Upton’s fate.

Rather, Halos GM Billy Eppler says “there is dialogue going on” between the sides, citing a “positive conversation” with Upton and his agent, Larry Reynolds. He did not divulge details beyond that, quite understandably, so it’s not entirely clear just what was discussed. But it certainly seems as if the team is taking a proactive approach in the hopes that Upton will remain in an Angels uniform for 2018 and beyond.

Upton can choose to enter the open market — which he’d do free and clear of any qualifying-offer-related draft compensation — or elect instead to keep the four-year, $88.5MM guarantee remaining on his contract. The Angels are surely hoping to convince Upton to stay, though we don’t know anything else about the substance of the chatter. Beyond pitching Upton on the organization, it’s not known whether some additional inducement has or could be contemplated. In theory, though, the sides could completely re-work the contract, modify it in some way, or instead just continue their discussion into free agency.

Unusual circumstances surrounded the 30-year-old Upton’s move out west. Despite the presence of the opt-out provision, the club acquired him from the Tigers at the last possible moment — during the revocable trade period, on August 31st, the last day that teams could add outside players who’d be eligible for the postseason. Righty Grayson Long and a player to be named or cash went to Detroit in the deal, which included no assurances or future considerations regarding Upton’s remaining contract (or lack thereof).

Upton played well in Los Angeles, though the club fell shy of the postseason. Through 115 plate appearances, he slashed .245/.357/.531 with seven home runs — good for a 137 OPS+ that matched his output over his first 125 games on the year with the Tigers. Though Upton has had a few productivity dips in his eleven-year career, he carries an excellent .269/.348/.479 cumulative batting line through more than six thousand trips to the plate at the game’s highest level.

Youth is still mostly on Upton’s side. So are defensive metrics, which see him as a solid-to-excellent fielder in left. In the aggregate, it’s fairly easy to make out a case for Upton commanding a guarantee of $20MM or more annually for a five- or six-year term — as he received the last time he went to the open market. Now that the risks of playing out the season are in the past, he doesn’t have much reason to take a (hypothetical) offer from the Angels before testing the broader market, though perhaps he could try to gain a sweetener if he’s at all inclined to avoid the risks of free agency by declining the opt-out opportunity.

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