Free Agent Profile: Ervin Santana
It's been an eventful 12 months for Ervin Santana. It seems hard to believe that just a year ago, Royals GM Dayton Moore's decision to acquire Santana and $1MM for minor leaguer Brandon Sisk was widely panned. Since that time, Santana resurfaced as one of the better pitchers in the American League, one of the game's top trade chips at the deadline and of course, one of the most desirable free agents on the market.
Strengths/Pros
Santana shaved nearly two runs off his ERA this season, dropping it to 3.24 and crossing 200 innings for the fifth time in his nine-year career. Durability is one of Santana's biggest assets; he's only been on the disabled list twice in his career. Dating back to 2011, Santana's average of 6.5 innings per start is the highest of any notable free agent. That ability to work deep into games is a boost for teams looking to avoid overtaxing their bullpens. 
Santana's 92.4 mph average fastball is among the fastest for free agent starters this season. Only Matt Garza, Josh Johnson, Jon Lester, Jason Hammel, Edinson Volquez, A.J. Burnett and Scott Kazmir throw harder. Lester's option will be picked up, however, while Volquez and Johnson posted two of baseball's worst ERAs. If you're looking for a starter that can average better than 92 mph on his fastball, Santana is a cut above the rest. In terms of swinging-strike rate, only Burnett, Kazmir, Ricky Nolasco and Chris Capuano topped Santana's 10 percent mark.
Santana's career 2.8 BB/9 rate is a testament to his excellent control, but he took that a step further in 2013. Santana's 2.2 BB/9 rate is fifth-best among qualified starters. Removing three intentional walks from the equation, that number drops to 2.0. Santana also continued to display an increased ground-ball rate, posting a career-best 46.5 percent mark in 2013 — his third-straight season of at least 43.2 percent.
Age is on Santana's side; he's set to turn 31 in December, making him younger than a number of his peers and bringing the promise of a few more of his prime years over the course of his next contract.
Weaknesses/Cons
Santana is homer-prone (career 1.22 HR/9), and the homer bug bit fiercely in 2012 when his 39 long balls allowed were the most in the Majors. That season was a clear outlier, as evidenced by a remarkably fluky 18.9 percent homer-to-flyball ratio (the league average that season was 11.8 percent, and Santana's career mark is 11 percent). Even if you ignore the outlier season, however, only twice has he posted a HR/9 better than the league average.
For a player who is positioned as one of the top pitchers on the free agent market, Santana doesn't strike hitters out at an elite rate. His 6.9 K/9 in 2013 was below the league average of 7.2 for starting pitchers, and he hasn't averaged more than 7.0 punchouts per nine innings since 2008.
I'd be remiss not to point out that Santana was little more than a salary dump a year ago at this time. The Royals' acquisition of him was widely questioned, as he was coming off a season in which he posted a 5.16 ERA — his second ERA north of 5.00 in a four-year span. Santana does not have consistency on his side, and he pitched below replacement level in 2012.
Part of the reason for his other 5.00+ ERA season (5.03 in 2009) was that he partially tore his UCL and elected to rehab and pitch through it. His ERA that season is probably more representative of the injury than his ability, as he posted a 7.81 first-half ERA but a 3.90 second-half ERA (3.09 in his final 12 appearances). Santana has never had the injury corrected, but it doesn't appear to be a major issue, as he's thrown 980 innings since partially tearing the ligament. Put another way, Santana has thrown nearly as many innings since the 2009 injury as one of his competitors, Josh Johnson, has thrown in his entire career dating back to 2005.
Advanced metrics such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA all feel that even in Santana's best seasons, he's more of a 3.90-4.00 ERA pitcher. Those may be a bit unfair, as he's shown the ability to consistently post a BABIP that's better than the league average, as seen in his .282 career total. It's still hard to ignore the fact that Santana has had just one truly elite season — a 219-inning, six-fWAR (five rWAR) masterpiece back in 2008. He's never been able to replicate his velocity, swinging-strike rate or strikeout rate from that season.
Santana's strong overall numbers in 2013 make a qualifying offer an absolute no-brainer for the Royals, so a team will absolutely have to forfeit its first- or second-round pick to sign him.
Personal
Per the Royals media guide, Santana and his wife, Amy, reside in the Dominican Republic in the offseason. He enjoys teaching children about baseball fundamentals and is outspoken in the confidence he has in himself and his teammates on Twitter. Santana was a hot topic at MLBTR over the summer months, and he showed off his playful side by making this Youtube video that described how it felt to be the target of so many trade rumors.
Market
Santana parlayed his rebound campaign into a No. 6 ranking on Tim Dierkes' Free Agent Power Rankings, leapfrogging Garza as the top domestic free agent pitcher on the market (Masahiro Tanaka, at No. 5, is the top overall pitcher).
The Royals have made it known that they'd like to re-sign him, but if they're truly reluctant to offer more than three years, Santana is as good as gone. Any team in search of pitching figures to at least place a call on Santana, meaning that the Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, Twins, Indians, Mariners, Giants, Rockies, Pirates, Cubs, Nationals, Phillies and Mets should all have varying degrees of interest.
Of course, not all those teams will be willing to bid high enough to land his services, nor will they all be keen on surrendering a draft pick to acquire Santana. The Twins are one team that has recently said they'd forfeit their second-round selection if they liked a player enough, though Santana is far pricier than their typical mold. On the flip-side of the coin, the Mets seem strongly against the idea of sacrificing their second-round selection for any player other than Shin-Soo Choo.
Expected Contract
ESPN's Keith Law recently wrote (Insider subscription required and recommended) that a four-year deal is a likelihood for Santana on the free agent market, adding that he prefers him to Garza and Dan Haren.
I find a four-year deal to be the floor for Santana, and would expect agent Bean Stringfellow of Proformance to seek a five-year pact. Given the sheer volume of teams looking to bolster their rotations and the relatively weak crop of free agent hurlers on the market, Santana has an honest chance at getting there. We've already received a glimpse at what the early market for free agent pitching will look like, with Tim Lincecum agreeing to a two-year, $35MM extension with the Giants.
Going back to 2008, Anibal Sanchez, Zack Greinke, C.J. Wilson, Yu Darvish, Cliff Lee, John Lackey, CC Sabathia and Burnett have inked free agent deals for five or more seasons. Each of those players was considered one of the top two starters on the market in his respective free agent class. Second-tier pitchers such as Derek Lowe and Edwin Jackson have been able to find lofty four-year commitments, and Santana enters free agency on the heels of a vastly superior season to the one that led to Jackson's four-year, $52MM pact with the Cubs.
As ludicrous as it would've sounded a year ago — and improbable as it will sound to some even now — my expectation is that Santana finds a team willing to push the limits and offer a five-year, $75MM contract.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Managerial/Coaching Notes: Wakamatsu, Wedge, White Sox
Earlier today it was reported that the Nationals will hire Diamondbacks third base coach and five-time Major League All-Star Matt Williams as their new manager. Though an official announcement has yet to come, it wouldn't be surprising to see the team wait until after the World Series in accordance with MLB's preference for teams not to distract from the World Series (as pointed out by Mark Zuckerman of CSN Washington). Here's the latest on managerial vacancies and coach hirings from around the league…
- The Royals announced that they have named former Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu as their Major League bench coach and promoted Mike Jirschele from Triple-A Omaha manager to Major League coach. Wakamatsu will also work as a special instructor for catchers. Jirschele, the Royals note, led the Storm Chasers to their second Pacific Coast League title of the past three seasons in 2013 (All Twitter links).
- ESPN's Keith Law points out (via Twitter) that Williams is a minority owner of the Diamondbacks and will have to sell his share in order to take the job with the Nationals.
- The Cubs will interview former Mariners manager Eric Wedge for their managerial vacancy next week, the MLB Network's Peter Gammons said on 670AM The Score in Chicago this morning (h/t: Gordon WIttenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times).
- The White Sox will hire Todd Steverson as their Major League hitting coach, according to MLB.com's Scott Merkin. Steverson, who will soon turn 42, has served as a minor league manager and hitting coach in the A's organization as well as Oakland's Major League first base coach. Merkin offers past quotes from Steverson, who talked about the importance of controlled aggression in the box and the dangers of being too passive at the plate.
- Jerry Crasnick of ESPN reported yesterday that Tigers hitting coach Lloyd McClendon interviewed for the team's managerial vacancy (Twitter link). Crasnick later appeared on 105.1 radio in Detroit and spoke with host Matt Dery about McClendon's candidacy, revealing that the interview lasted four hours (audio link).
Arbitration Eligibles: Kansas City Royals
Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Royals are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.
- Luke Hochevar (5.151): $5MM
- Greg Holland (3.028): $4.9MM
- Eric Hosmer (2.146, Super Two): $4.1MM
- Emilio Bonifacio (5.066): $3.3MM
- Felipe Paulino (5.163): $1.75MM
- Aaron Crow (3.000): $1.9MM
- Chris Getz (5.035): $1.3MM
- George Kottaras (4.149): $1.2MM
- Justin Maxwell (3.017): $1.2MM
- Luis Mendoza (3.063): $1MM
- Tim Collins (3.000): $1MM
- Brett Hayes (3.017): $900K
In Holland, Hochevar, Collins, and Crow, four mainstays of the Royals' excellent bullpen are arbitration eligible. Holland was flat-out dominant, earning an All-Star nod while posting a 1.21 ERA with 47 saves and 103 strikeouts in 67 innings. With a few more seasons near that level, he could get expensive in a hurry. There aren't any recent closers who signed extensions with three years of service, but Brian Wilson received about $19.5MM for his three arbitration years. Hochevar finally found his calling in the bullpen and was almost as good as Holland. While he's approaching the market price for a setup man, keeping him in front of Holland and shortening games to seven innings again next year is surely appealing to the Royals.
Collins and Crow had problems with free passes and scuffled at times in 2013, but are penciled into next year's pen as well. Collins is a southpaw, but otherwise the Royals are deep in right-handed relief and may be able to use part of the surplus in a trade.
Mendoza won the Royals' fifth starter job out of Spring Training, but was demoted to the bullpen in July. He was used sparingly in a mop-up role and was hit hard in his six relief appearances to close out the season. A non-tender is possible despite his low projected salary, or he could be traded. Paulino underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2012, allowing the Royals to pull off the rare salary decrease in arbitration. His rehab efforts this year were cut short due to a cyst in his shoulder, on which he had surgery in September. The Royals will be able to bring him back one more time for around the same salary, and if his recovery is going well, it's probably worth doing.
After a lousy 2012, Hosmer bounced back with a strong campaign just in time for the first of four potential arbitration years. I'd suggest an Allen Craig or Billy Butler type of extension, but Hosmer is represented by Scott Boras, and he's never done that type of deal. Elsewhere among the Royals' position players, Bonifacio and Maxwell will have roles on next year's team, with strong showings after coming over in summer trades.
Though they would be cheap to retain, Getz, Hayes, and Kottaras are non-tender candidates. Getz won the Royals' starting second base job out of Spring Training, but was optioned to Triple-A in June and missed time with a knee injury upon his return to the Majors. Hayes, a November waiver claim from the Marlins, was on and off the 40-man roster this year and was third on the Royals' catching depth chart. Kottaras, a January waiver claim from the Athletics, won the backup catcher job out of camp and held it for the season. It seems likely Hayes will lose his 40-man spot again, while Kottaras may stay on as Salvador Perez's backup unless the Royals decide they need an upgrade.
Assuming the Royals tender contracts to Hochevar, Holland, Hosmer, Bonifacio, Paulino, Crow, Kottaras, Maxwell, and Collins, they're looking at an estimated $24.35MM for nine arbitration eligible players.
Quick Hits: Chapman, Phillips, Butler, Tanaka
At today's news conference, new Reds skipper Bryan Price said that no decision has been made on whether Aroldis Chapman will be a starter or reliever going forward. However, Price did say that pitchers "get better by throwing innings. I haven't changed that philosophy," according to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). Here's more from around baseball..
- Reds GM Walt Jocketty says that he's not shopping second baseman Brandon Phillips, but he stopped short of guaranteeing that he'll be with the club by the start of Spring Training, writes MLB.com's Mark Sheldon. "[Phillips] texted wanting to know if we were trading him. I told him that I have not spoken to anybody about that," Jocketty said. "I'm not talking to any clubs about him." Earlier today, Charlie Wilmoth previewed the offseason ahead for Cincinnati.
- The Royals are reportedly willing to listen on Billy Butler this winter, but Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star notes that GM Dayton Moore is always open-minded to all opportunities.
- The Dodgers scouted Japanese star Masahiro Tanaka three days ago and could become major players for him, tweets Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com. The hurler is among the very best starting pitchers available on the open market this winter.
Royals Willing To Listen On Billy Butler
The Royals are ready to listen on offers for Billy Butler this winter, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (via Twitter). The designated hitter/first baseman is owed $8MM in 2014, and the Royals hold a $12.5MM club option with a $1MM on Butler for the 2015 season.
Butler, 27, hit .289/.374/.412 with 15 homers this season and played in all 162 games. It was a step back from what the Royals were used to seeing from the slugger – he had a career .300/.362/.468 slash line heading into 2013 and belted a career-high 29 homers in 2012.
Kansas City could find a limited market for Butler this offseason as he is probably better suited for the American League and has a good amount of money left on his deal over the next two years. The slugger known as Country Breakfast drew interest from the Mariners and Orioles last winter.
AL Central Notes: Ortiz, Peavy, Tigers, Ramirez
David Ortiz's postseason heroics are a painful reminder of the worst decision in Twins' history, writes Patrick Reusse of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The Twins cut ties with Ortiz following the 2002 season after his salary was expected to jump to $2MM+. Interest in Ortiz on the free agent market was tepid, and the Red Sox, of course, were able to sign him for just $1.25MM in late January. The rest is history, though the legend of Big Papi continued to grow this October with a dramatic, game-tying grand slam off Joaquin Benoit in the ALCS.
Here's more from the AL Central…
- Jake Peavy admitted to reporters, including Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago, that he's disappointed that the White Sox weren't able to make the playoffs, as he had hoped when he signed a two-year extension with the team last offseason. However, he's enjoying his time with the Red Sox and relishes the chance to pitch in meaningful games: "…this is what, as a competitor, as a baseball player, playing at the highest level, you dream of being able to do,” Peavy said. “Pitching in games that mean the world to your teammates, to yourself, to your coaching staff and your fan base."
- Former Tiger and current MLBPA Deputy Executive Director Tony Clark told George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press that Tigers owner Mike Illitch was always committed to winning, even in the years in which the Tigers weren't competitive. Clark added that he's excited to see the current group of Tigers playing well, as he has fond memories of his days with the team. Clark hit .277/.355/.502 with 156 homers for the Tigers from 1995-2001 after Detroit picked him second overall in the draft.
- Royals catcher Max Ramirez has left the Wasserman Media Group and is now represented by Burton Rocks, tweets Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Ramirez, a former top prospect, will be a free agent this winter and batted .263/.336/.375 with nine homers in 467 plate appearances at Triple-A Omaha.
AL Central Notes: Tigers, Twins, Yoon, Santana
Trades don't always work out for both clubs involved and it's even rarer for a three-team deal to benefit all parties. However, the Jake Peavy deal did just that, according to Red Sox skipper John Farrell. “One, It’s a great baseball trade because it clearly had specific needs and fit for the three teams involved,” Farrell said, according to Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com. “Secondly, you have to give up a quality player to get a quality player in return. … It was hard to see Jose Iglesias go, but in return we knew we needed another quality starter, and we got that in Jake." The swap brought five-tool outfielder Avisail Garcia to the White Sox and the Tigers received Iglesias from Boston. More out of the AL Central..
- Korean starting pitcher Suk-Min Yoon is on the Twins' radar, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (via Twitter). Because Yoon is a free agent, he won't require a posting fee from the team that signs him. Yoon hired agent Scott Boras to represent him following the 2011 season but he ultimately stayed in Korea despite speculation he would pitch in the big leagues in 2012. The 27-year-old is set to audition for clubs in the U.S in the near future.
- It's something of a longshot to happen, but Wolfson (Twitter link) hears that the Twins aren't married to keeping their second-round pick and would sacrifice it to sign a player tied to draft compensation. Of course, the Twins' first-round pick is protected thanks to finishing in the bottom third of the standings.
- The Royals should be very careful about the kind of offer they give to free agent Ervin Santana, writes Sam Mellinger of The Kansas City Star. Historically, large and long-term commitments to free agent pitchers don't pan out and Mellinger suggests that KC sets a limit of $45MM over three years.
AL Notes: A-Rod, Girardi, Starling, Red Sox
In addition to hurling six no-hit innings in Game 1 of the ALCS, Anibal Sanchez made history with his performance that night. As MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm points out, Sanchez became the first pitcher to record four strikeouts in one inning of a postseason game since Cubs right-hander Orval Overall in 1908. Here's more from the American League as the Tigers and Red Sox prepare to square off for Game 2 of the League Championship Series tonight…
- In an appearance on ESPN Radio's Ian Connor Show, Yankees GM Brian Cashman shot down the theory that he'd rather have the roughly $25MM that a suspension for Alex Rodriguez would net the team than have A-Rod take the field next season. Said Cashman: "It's not like, all right, we'll take that money and go in this direction. I think … our fan base saw when we lost significant players at various positions, it was not easy to plug holes because the talent just doesn't exist."
- In that same appearance, Cashman admitted that he thought the Cubs had a real chance to steal manager Joe Girardi from the Yankees before the skipper signed a new four-year deal last week. He also said he has no gut feeling as to whether or not the team can retain Robinson Cano to this point.
- Royals assistant general manager J.J. Piccolo told Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star that the team is pleased with the progress that former first-round pick Bubba Starling is making, even if it's slower than many fans hoped. Piccolo added that those who point to Mike Trout and Bryce Harper already being in the Majors at 21 and feeling disappointment that Starling is just at Class-A aren't being realistic. Those comparisons aren't fair to Starling or to other first-round picks, said Piccolo, as Trout and Harper are generational talents in his mind.
- Newsday's David Lennon cautions that while Red Sox GM Ben Cherington deserves praise for the team's turnaround, there was more to Cherington's model than just adding a slew of middle-tier free agents. While many teams are hoping to emulate that model this offseason, the Red Sox were already well-positioned for the rebound with Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury in place.
Jamey Carroll Rejects Outright Assignment
Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star reports that the Royals outrighted Jamey Carroll off their 40-man roster, and the veteran infielder rejected the outright assignment, thereby becoming a free agent (Twitter link). In doing so, the Royals have effectively declined their $2MM club option on Carroll, meaning that he will instead receive a $250K buyout.
Carroll, who turns 40 in February, was acquired in exchange for cash considerations in an August trade with the Twins. The veteran utilityman collected just four hits in 36 at-bats for Kansas City down the stretch, bringing him to an even 1,000 for his career.
Carroll originally signed a two-year, $6.75MM contract with the Twins that contained a $2MM club option for 2014. Had he reached 401 plate appearances in 2013, that option would have become a player option. However, Carroll was unable to replicate his respectable 2012 numbes this season. After slashing .268/.343/.317 in 537 plate appearances and playing solid defense at shortstop, second and third for the Twins in 2012, he hit just .211/.265/.251 in 249 PAs between Minnesota and Kansas City this season.
AL Central Links: Santana, Morneau, Twins, Sox
Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star reports that the Royals maintain there is a possibility for them to retain Ervin Santana this offseason. GM Dayton Moore has gone on the record in saying that Santana will get a qualifying offer, notes Dutton, and one club official pointed to the struggles that gave Kyle Lohse on last year's market. Lohse was significantly older than Santana, of course, but a qualifying offer does up the price to sign Santana for everyone other than the Royals. Dutton senses that at this time, the team doesn't want to go beyond three years, but that could change once they gauge the market. Here's more out of the AL Central…
- MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger tackles a host of Twins-related topics in his latest Twins Inbox, starting off by dismissing the notion that Joe Mauer's concussion and Josmil Pinto's impressive big league debut spell the end of Mauer's days behind the plate. Mauer and GM Terry Ryan both say that Mauer will still catch, and the proposed destination of first base for Mauer may not be vacant. Bollinger reports that Justin Morneau is a candidate to return to the team, but there mixed feelings about whether or not he'd return, as he may prefer to sign with a contender.
- Bollinger also notes that Brian Dozier's strong season at second base could make top prospect Eddie Rosario a trade chip to land starting pitching, or it could make Dozier himself a trade chip with Rosario nearing the big leagues. He adds that the Twins need to acquire starting pitching this summer, and Ryan will have the funds to do so via free agency and the prospects to do so via trade. Only Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Mauer (who has a full no-trade clause) are untouchable in trade talks this offseason, according to Bollinger.
- The White Sox gave a club-record $1.6MM signing bonus to Dominican outfield prospect Micker Adolfo this July, writes MLB.com's Scott Merkin, and GM Rick Hahn expects more of the same next season as he looks to rebuild the team following a 99-loss campaign. Hahn anticipates being allotted roughly $5MM to spend on international free agents, which should give him plenty of ammunition to be aggressive.