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Reds Claim Harrison Bader, Hunter Renfroe

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The Reds have claimed outfielder Harrison Bader off waivers from the Yankees, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Reds also claimed outfielder Hunter Renfroe from the Angels, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN. By joining the Reds prior to September 1, each will be eligible to participate in the postseason if the club eventually makes it.

Bader, 29, and Renfroe, 31, were two of several veteran players placed on waivers this week. There were many clubs who were still hovering around contention at the trade deadline but slipped back in the standings in the month of August. But the opportunity to trade impending free agents for any kind of return had passed by, leaving them little recourse but to place those players on waivers. By doing so, they could perhaps at least save themselves some money since the claiming team takes on the remainder of the contract, while allowing the player to move somewhere with a chance to contend and perhaps make the playoffs.

Both Bader and Renfroe will do just that, jumping from their respective clubs to the Reds, who have emerged from their rebuild in amazing fashion this year. Several rookies have been called up and have been able to hit the ground running, allowing the club to currently find themselves just one game out of a National League Wild Card spot with a record of 69-66. They will now add a couple of veteran players into the mix for their stretch run, for nothing but a financial cost.

Bader has long been an excellent fielder in center, starting with the Cardinals and continuing with the Yankees after a trade last year. In 621 career games, he’s tallied 53 Defensive Runs Saved, 67 Outs Above Average and a grade of 46.7 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Injuries have been an ongoing issue, however, with Bader only twice playing in more than 103 games in a season. Those instances were back in 2018 and 2019, with multiple IL trips in the seasons since.

At the plate, he’s been less impressive than in the field, usually hovering around league average. His career batting line is .244/.312/.399, which translates to a wRC+ of 93, but he’s hitting just .240/.278/.365 this year for a 76 wRC+. But his speed has allowed him to steal 74 bases in his career, including 17 already this season.

Renfroe is effectively the inverse to Bader, as his bat his generally his best trait, with his speed and defense considered subpar. Though his offense is his standout trait, he’s inconsistent in that regard, with his production oscillating between either side of league average. Over 2021 and 2022, he hit 60 home runs and produced a batting line of .257/.315/.496, amounting to a wRC+ of 118. But this year, he’s down a bit to .242/.304/.434 and a 98 wRC+.

Despite each player’s value, the Yankees and Angels fell back in the standings in August and gave up on their hopes of contending. Both of these players are impending free agents and neither would warrant a qualifying offer at season’s end, so their respective clubs placed them on waivers in the hopes that another team would put in a claim and take the remainder of the contract off their hands.

The waiver priority order is the reverse of the standings, with the worst clubs having first dibs. But non-contending clubs would have no incentive for claiming these players, so they have naturally skipped to a contender. In this case, some other fringe contenders like the Guardians and Marlins passed on Bader and Renfroe, though the Reds benefited by being in the playoff race but with a worse record than some of the clubs they are battling.

By adding Renfroe and Bader into the mix, the Reds have further crowded their outfield picture. In recent days, they have had TJ Friedl in center, with Will Benson and Nick Senzel getting regular work in the corners, backed up by Stuart Fairchild and TJ Hopkins. There’s also Jake Fraley, who is on the injured list but currently on a rehab assignment. Spencer Steer has been covering second base with Matt McLain on the IL but could end up back in the outfield if McLain returns.

There’s a lot of moving parts there but the Reds will likely figure out a way to make it work. Senzel is hitting just .219/.289/.371 this year and could be bumped from the regular lineup by Renfroe. Friedl was hitting .313/.379/.486 through June but has slumped to a line of .221/.278/.352 since the calendar flipped to July, perhaps leading to Bader taking some of his playing time. There’s also the designated hitter slot, which has been used by Nick Martini of late. He’s been red hot but in a small sample of just nine games.

However it plays out, the Reds are taking on some money to try to push themselves into the postseason. Bader is making $4.7MM this year with around $783K left to be paid out, while Renfroe has about $1.98MM left on his $11.9MM salary. That leaves the Reds taking on close to $2.76MM in these moves, though the savings for the other clubs will be greater.

The Yankees are set to pay the luxury tax for a second straight year and have been hovering around the fourth CBT tier. That means they will be paying a 75% tax on any spending over the $273MM line and a 90% tax on any spending over the $293MM line. By having Bader claimed on waivers, they will save the remainder of his contract and also reduce their tax bill.

For the Angels, they were narrowly over the lowest CBT threshold and may be able to duck below. In addition to the Reds claiming Renfroe, the Guardians claimed Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore and Reynaldo López while the Mariners claimed Dominic Leone. In addition to the straightforward cost savings, those claims could potentially push them out of payor status, though that won’t be officially known until the offseason. If they did successfully avoid the tax, that would impact the draft pick they receive in the event Shohei Ohtani signs elsewhere after rejecting a qualifying offer. A team that pays the luxury tax sees their compensatory draft pick moved back from just before the third round to just after the fourth, moving from around pick 75-80 to around 140. There are also compounding penalties for repeat payors, meaning that getting below the line here in 2023 could have impacts for the Halos into the future as well.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Angels To Select Kyren Paris

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The Angels plan to promote middle infield prospect Kyren Paris from Double-A Rocket City, reports Taylor Blake Ward of the Sporting Tribune (on Twitter). He’ll take one of a number of open roster spots for the Halos.

Paris, whom Baseball America recently ranked the #5 prospect in the Angels’ system, was a second round pick out of a Bay Area high school in 2019. He has been among the better prospects in the organization since then even though the canceled 2020 minor league campaign combined with hamate and leg fractures to keep him from playing regularly until 2022.

The righty-swinging infielder spent most of last season in High-A, where he hit .229/.345/.387 over 89 contests. The Angels bumped him to Double-A late in the year. He has spent all of 2023 in Rocket City, putting up a .255/.393/.417 batting line through 514 trips to the plate. It’s a solid showing for a 21-year-old overall, although Paris’ profile is fairly volatile.

Prospect evaluators praise his athleticism and plus speed. Paris has stolen 44 bases and been caught just five times this year. He has connected on 14 home runs, 23 doubles and a triple despite a fairly slight 6’0″ frame. Scouting reports raise questions about whether he has the arm strength to stick on the left side of the infield but suggest he could be a good defensive second baseman.

At the same time, there are questions about Paris’ inconsistency making contact. He’s striking out at a near-30% clip in the minors. His youth and lack of professional experience have surely played a role, but Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote in June that Paris is always likely to have well below-average contact skills because of middling bat control.

Even for an organization that is very aggressive about promoting prospects, jumping Paris past Triple-A when he’s striking out so frequently in Double-A is a surprising decision. He’ll likely have some growing pains in his initial look at big league pitching. The Angels are content to live with potential early struggles to get Paris some experience as they close out another disappointing season.

Paris could step in as the primary shortstop with Zach Neto on the injured list. The Halos have been playing Luis Rengifo there. The utilityman is capable of moving around the diamond and could see increased outfield reps after Hunter Renfroe was moved on waivers.

Also taking a 40-man roster spot is right-hander Davis Daniel. The Angels reinstated him from the 60-day injured list and optioned him to Triple-A Salt Lake this afternoon. Daniel has missed the entire season with a shoulder strain. He was called to the majors for a point last summer but has yet to make his MLB debut. Los Angeles still has three open 40-man spots.

Randal Grichuk Clears Waivers

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Angels outfielder Randal Grichuk was not claimed on outright waivers, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He’ll remain with the Halos unless they surprisingly choose to outright him to a minor league affiliate, at which point Grichuk would have the right to elect free agency.

Los Angeles acquired Grichuk from the Rockies on July 30. The veteran outfielder had a .308/.365/.498 batting line at the time. He hasn’t hit at all since landing in Southern California, posting a .168/.220/.347 slash in 109 plate appearances as an Angel. Grichuk’s strikeout rate is up more than four percentage points relative to his time in Colorado.

Dismal batted ball luck has surely played a role. After hitting .363 on balls in play for the Rox, Grichuk owns just a .181 BABIP for the Halos. Nevertheless, other clubs were concerned enough about his recent drop-off not to add him to the roster. Los Angeles successfully moved on from Hunter Renfroe — he was claimed by the Reds — so they’ll presumably keep Grichuk on the major league club to play out the stretch run.

The 32-year-old is making $9.33MM on the season. That’s being divided among three teams. The Blue Jays are covering $4.33MM as part of the trade that sent him to Colorado over the 2021-22 offseason. The Rockies are paying down around half the remaining salary as a condition of the trade with the Halos, leaving Los Angeles on the hook for the prorated portion of approximately $2.5MM. Grichuk will be a free agent at the end of the season.

Mariners Claim Dominic Leone From Angels

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The Mariners have claimed right-hander Dominic Leone off waivers from the Angels, reports Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times. The reliever was one of a handful of players waived by Los Angeles in a salary dump.

It’s the fourth organization of the season for Leone, who originally broke into the majors with Seattle nine years ago. He began on a minor league deal with Texas but didn’t crack the Rangers’ MLB roster. Leone moved to the Mets via free agency and turned in 30 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball. He struggled with homers in Queens but posted better than average strikeout and walk marks.

The Halos acquired Leone just before the August 1 trade deadline. As was the case for the bulk of the roster over the last few weeks, he struggled in Orange County. Leone was tagged for eight runs in 13 frames as an Angel. He walked nine while striking out 11. For the season, the 31-year-old now carries a 4.74 ERA across 43 2/3 frames. He’s striking hitters out at a league average 23.4% clip but has now walked just under 11% of batters faced.

It’s not the most dominant performance, but Leone has shown an intriguing arsenal on a pitch-for-pitch basis. He’s averaging just under 96 MPH on his heater and has gotten swinging strikes on a massive 15.7% of his offerings between the two clubs. He’ll add a power arm to the middle innings, furthering deepening a very good Seattle relief corps.

The combination of power stuff but inconsistent results explains both why the M’s rolled the dice on Leone and why so many other teams did not. Seattle had the #26 waiver priority, meaning everyone aside from the Rays, Orioles, Dodgers and Braves certainly passed.

Seattle will need to clear a spot on the 40-man roster once they officially announce the claim. Leone can take the extra spot on the active roster during tomorrow’s expansion. It’s a low-cost roll of the dice, as Seattle will take on roughly $258K in remaining salary on Leone’s $1.5MM contract. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end.

The Best Fits For Harrison Bader, Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk

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A somewhat surprising trend began yesterday when the Angels placed six members of their active roster on outright waivers: Lucas Giolito, Hunter Renfroe, Reynaldo Lopez, Matt Moore, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. The White Sox (Mike Clevinger), Mets (Carlos Carrasco) and Tigers (Jose Cisnero) all followed suit, to varying degrees.

In many ways, it hearkens back to the days of revocable August trade waivers, when it was common for teams to run the majority of their roster through trade waivers. That led to what was effectively a second trade deadline at the end of August, as high-priced veterans who’d gone unclaimed were free to be moved. This set of circumstances, however, is quite different.

The players waived by the Angels, White Sox, Mets and Tigers are on irrevocable outright waivers. Any team that is awarded a claim on one of these players immediately takes on the remainder of that player’s contract. If one of these veterans goes unclaimed — it’s likely that a few of them will — their current team does not have to outright them to a minor league affiliate. They can simply return said player to their active roster and continue playing him as normal. (The Angels reportedly already passed Tyler Anderson through outright waivers last week and just kept him on the roster after he went unclaimed.) Similarly, these players are quite obviously free to keep playing. Many of them played last night. Renfroe literally hit a home run as I was typing this paragraph. Waivers are fun!

The outright waiver period is 48 hours, meaning we’ll have resolution on everyone from this group at some point tomorrow afternoon (though news of the claims being awarded could be staggered a bit). Waiver priority is determined based on reverse order of winning percentage and is not league specific. League-specific waiver priority was unique to revocable August trade waivers and is now defunct. It’s a common misconception that it remains in place, but MLBTR has confirmed with league sources on multiple occasions that waiver priority is simply worst team through best team — in this case, starting with the A’s and ending with the Braves. More specifically, waiver priority is determined based on the reverse standings on the day players clear waivers, meaning we’ll know the final waiver priority for all of these veterans once tonight’s games are wrapped up.

That’s a whole bunch of preamble that may or may not have been necessary, depending on your prior understanding of waiver minutiae. It felt pertinent to do a brief crash course, however, given the unusual nature of this sequence of moves and the major ramifications it could hold with teams in a tight playoff race.

It’s fair to assume the non-contenders are going to pass on picking up any of these players — they’re all impending free agents — but any club with a glimmer of postseason hope could place a claim. That technically includes the Guardians and the Padres, although both are long shots, at best to play meaningful games in October. FanGraphs gives Cleveland and San Diego respective playoff odds of 3.3% and 1.8%, while Baseball Prospectus has the Guards at just 1.6% and the Friars at what seems like a generous 7%. You can never rule out the Padres on big-name players, but they’re already in the third tier of luxury penalization, so anyone they acquire will come with a 75% tax. It’d be a steep price to pay, but hey, when has that ever stopped president of baseball ops A.J. Preller and owner Peter Seidler?

We’re writing about the best fits for this trio of outfielders, however, and the “best” fit doesn’t seem like a team whose playoff hopes are the rough equivalent of hitting a one-outer on the river in a hand of Texas Hold ’Em. So, with all that said, let’s take a look at each outfielder, how much he’s still owed on his contract, his strengths/flaws, whether he’s likely to be claimed at all, and where he might best fit among the group of contenders who’ll have priority over the Braves, Orioles, Dodgers, Rays and Mariners (i.e. the upper echelon of MLB’s standings).

Harrison Bader
Age: 29 | Bats: R | Salary: $4.7MM ($783K yet to be paid out) | Position: Center Field

Bader is the youngest, the cheapest and the likeliest of this trio to be claimed. Age and salary play a major role in that, but so does his glove. Bader isn’t just the best defensive outfielder of this bunch — he’s one of the best defensive outfielders in Major League Baseball. He can play any of the three outfield spots, but the defense is so strong that it’s almost a waste to have him anywhere other than center. In 4243 innings of center field play at the big league level, Bader has piled up 43 Defensive Runs Saved and a mammoth 61 Outs Above Average.

For some further context, Bader’s 4243 innings in center field from 2017-23 rank just 96th among all big league players in terms of total innings played at one position. But he nevertheless ranks 18th among all Major Leaguers in Defensive Runs Saved and seventh in Outs Above Average. In other words, even though 95 players have had a larger sample of innings to rack up accolades in that pair of cumulative defensive metrics, Bader still has higher totals than nearly all of them.

Prior to the 2023 season, Bader has been more or less a league-average hitter. From 2018-22, he batted .245/.319/.407 — good for a 98 wRC+. By that measure, he was 2% worse than a big league hitter. For a player with this type of defensive talent, that made him a standout all-around performer. This year, however, has seen his bat take a step back. Bader is fanning at a career-low 18%, but he’s hitting just .239/.275/.365. He’s walking less than ever, hitting more fly balls than ever before, and seeing just 6.5% of those flies turn into home runs (the second-lowest mark of his career).

One thing Bader is doing quite well — and that he’s always done well — is torching left-handed pitching. He’s a career .267/.332/.508 batter against southpaws, but in 2023 he’s absolutely demolishing lefties at a .348/.389/.697 clip. Granted, it’s only 72 plate appearances, but Bader has nonetheless been a behemoth when holding the platoon advantage.

Any team can stand to improve its outfield defense, but there are still a few contenders who could make particular use of this type of glove. The Marlins have been seeking a center fielder for years. They rank 29th in the Majors with -19 DRS and are tied for 22nd with -7 OAA. The Phillies, Red Sox, Giants and Cubs all grade as below-average defensive outfield units, too. As far as production against lefties, the Giants, Diamondbacks, Twins and Reds are all bunched tightly together in terms of wRC+ (ranging San Francisco’s 90 to Cincinnati’s 94). The Brewers are also at 94, but they’re currently tied with the Rangers and Astros for the sixth-worst waiver priority in MLB. It’s hard to imagine Bader falling that far.

The Twins have a similar skill set here (Michael A. Taylor) and are hoping to get Byron Buxton back soon. The Cubs and Red Sox make some sense — Boston in particular, after Jarren Duran’s injury — but both are a ways down the waiver pecking order. Bader would make any contending team better — even if only as a bench player — but he seems like a particularly good fit for the Marlins or the Giants.

Hunter Renfroe
Age: 31 | Bats: R | Salary: $11.9MM ($1.98MM remaining) | Position: Right field

Renfroe’s salary is significant enough that he’s not a lock to be claimed at all — particularly since he’s in the midst of a down year at the plate (the aforementioned homer notwithstanding). A well above-average hitter with the Red Sox and Brewers in 2021-22 when he batted .257/.315/.496, Renfroe finds himself batting .239/.301/.430 on the year — about 3% worse than average, per wRC+. He’s hitting more grounders than he has since his rookie season, popping up more often than ever, and has seen both his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate drop to nearly career-low levels.

Earlier in his career, Renfroe was considered a premium defensive outfielder, but his sprint speed and outfield reads have degraded over the past few years, per Statcast. His raw arm strength still sits in the 92nd percentile of MLB players, so opposing baserunners will want to think twice about tagging up when Renfroe is on the receiving end of a fly-ball, but Renfroe’s range simply isn’t what it once was. DRS pegs him at -8, while OAA is a bit more favorable but still gives him a mark of -3.

Traditionally, Renfroe has punished left-handed pitching. He’s a lifetime .261/.342/.523 hitter against lefties in the big leagues, but this season has seen that production muted. Nearly all of Renfroe’s power has come against right-handed opponents; he’s hitting .250/.304/.356 against lefties, with a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than he currently sports against right-handed opponents.

Renfroe was hot-potato’ed around the league even during more productive times, bouncing to four teams in four years — Rays, Red Sox, Brewers, Angels — a reflection of the manner in which the market has generally deprioritized/devalued bat-first corner players with OBP concerns. It’ll now cost a team just shy of $2MM to rent him for one month, and that may be a price at which some clubs balk.

That said, Renfroe has some track record and has still been a roughly average hitter in 2023. He’d be an upgrade over bench bats that are being rostered even on a number of contending clubs, and a team dealing with injuries in the outfield could certainly view him as a potential difference-maker.

While the Marlins could use Bader in center, they’re well-stocked on corner options and have Jorge Soler at DH. The Red Sox and Brewers have both already traded Renfroe once. The Giants (Mitch Haniger) and D-backs (Tommy Pham) have relatively similar players. The Twins could view Renfroe as a viable upgrade over Jordan Luplow or the struggling Joey Gallo, and the Reds are a fit with Jake Fraley, Joey Votto and Jonathan India on the injured list. Renfroe could push Nick Senzel back to Triple-A. If Renfroe makes it to the Mariners, he could be an upgrade over Dominic Canzone in left field with Jarred Kelenic out. The Dodgers could certainly afford to add Renfroe with J.D. Martinez on the injured list and a slew of lefty-hitting outfield options — if he makes it that far.

Randal Grichuk
Age: 32 | Bats: R | Salary: $9.333MM ($1.55MM remaining) | Position: All three outfield spots

Grichuk was having a strong season with the Rockies, batting .308/.365/.496 in 263 plate appearances, but his bat cratered following a trade to the Halos. In 104 plate appearances since the swap, he’s batted .165/.212/.351 with a 25% strikeout rate that’s considerably higher than the 19.4% mark he posted in Denver.

Grichuk has long been a limited player despite tools that suggest otherwise. Statcast annually grades him with above-average speed and arm strength, but he’s never been a threat to steal bases and has drawn inconsistent (at best) grades for his defense around the outfield. He’s probably best-suited for corner work at this point, but the Rox and Angels have given him 143 innings in center this year. He has more than 3000 career innings in both center and right, in addition to nearly 1200 innings in left, so he’s at least going to feel familiar with whichever outfield slot he plays.

While he’s long shown above-average power — career .216 ISO, career-high 31 homers back in 2019, five seasons of 20-plus homers — Grichuk’s offensive value is regularly undercut by his distaste for walks. He’s drawn a free pass in just 5.6% of his career plate appearances, resulting in a lifetime OBP under .300 (.296).

That said, it may be a limited skill set, but Grichuk shines in one particular area: tormenting left-handed pitching. He’s hitting .330/.394/.596 against lefties in 2023 and is a career .266/.314/.503 hitter in such situations.

Grichuk is a bit more affordable than Renfroe, is having a much better season against lefties, and can play center in a pinch, so he may hold more appeal. That same group of the Giants, D-backs, Twins, Reds and Brewers could all use help against southpaws. The Giants are deep in right-handed outfielders though, and the D-backs have Pham to fill a similar role. The Reds and Twins could look at Grichuk for the same reasons they might consider Renfroe, and the Brewers could look at him as a boost against lefties who’d take some pressure off struggling Tyrone Taylor and young Sal Frelick.

The Best Fits For Matt Moore, Reynaldo López, Dominic Leone, José Cisnero

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Yesterday saw a flurry of players placed on waivers, with the Angels making six players available to other clubs, while the Yankees, White Sox, Mets and Tigers also got in on the act. What those clubs all have in common is that their chances of competing this year are effectively gone, meaning that impending free agents that aren’t qualifying offer candidates have little use to them at this point. Since the trade deadline passed by a month ago, those clubs have no ability to exchange those players for any kind of younger talent, a player to be named later or even cash considerations. But by placing them on waivers, they could perhaps see another team put in a claim and take on the remainder of the salary commitments. For a claiming team, this is perhaps their best way of upgrading their roster after the deadline. As long as the player is acquired prior to September 1, they would be playoff eligible. That’s why all of this is happening now.

Before digging in, let’s clarify the process. This is different than the revocable kind of waivers that existed under the now-defunct August waiver trade system. These waivers are irrevocable, meaning that the players will be gone if any club puts in a claim. But the players have not been designated for assignment nor released. If they are not claimed, they can simply stay on the roster of their current club. Waiver priority will be in reverse order of the standings at the time of the claim and is not league-specific.

MLBTR is breaking it down by position, with this post focusing on the relievers. Let’s start with an overview of who is in that bucket.

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Matt Moore, Angels, LHP: $7.55MM salary, approximately $1.3M remaining

Moore, 34, had his ups and downs as a starter but he recently converted to relief work full-time and has been excellent since then. He had a 1.95 ERA with the Rangers last year and is at 2.30 with the Angels this year, coming into today’s action. In both seasons, he struck out more than 27% of opponents. His ground ball rate has fallen from last year, 43.9% to 34.3%, but he’s cut his walk rate from 12.5% to 7.1%. He has the highest salary of this group but has the best numbers and is the only lefty.

Reynaldo López, Angels, RHP: $3.625M salary, approximately $623K remaining

López, 29, was fairly mediocre as a starter but has been much better since his bullpen move, with a 2.76 ERA last year and 3.86 mark this year. He has bumped his strikeout rate this year from last year’s 24.8% rate to 30.7%, though his walk rate also jumped from 4.3% to 12.1%. He’s been the best of the righties on this list and his salary is about half of Moore’s.

Dominic Leone, Angels, RHP: $1.5MM salary, approximately $258K remaining

Leone, 31, has been fairly inconsistent in his career. He has three seasons with an ERA under 2.57 but also three above 6.32. This year, he’s in between at 4.64 while striking out 24% of opponents and walking 10.9%. He’s not having a dominant season but he had a 1.51 ERA as recently as 2021 and has the lightest salary of anyone on this list.

José Cisnero, Tigers, RHP: $2.2875MM salary, approximately $393K remaining

Cisnero, 34, had an incredible 1.08 ERA last year, though with some unsustainable elements in a .242 BABIP and 88.6% strand rate. This year, the wheel of fortune has spun him around the other way, with a .343 BABIP and 66% strand rate. That’s pushed his ERA to 5.36, a huge jump of more than four runs compared to last year. But his FIP, which takes those luck factors into account, went from 3.67 to 4.38. He has a 25.2% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate this year.

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Now that we’ve covered the process and the players available, who makes sense to put in a claim? We can start by crossing out all of the non-contending clubs. They have no need to pick up an impending free agent and his salary as they play out the string on a lost season.

Since the waiver order goes from the bottom of the standings towards the top, the fringe contenders will have a greater chance of a successful claim than teams at the top of the standings. Those teams will have to decide whether they want to add some salary to their books in order to obtain a marginal bullpen upgrade for the final month of the season.

The Padres have been on the edges of the playoff race all year but refused to sell off impending free agents like Blake Snell and Josh Hader and even added players like Garrett Cooper and Rich Hill. But they are still 7.5 games back of a Wild Card spot and their playoff odds are dwindling. The financials are also important as both Roster Resource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts have them between the third and fourth CBT threshold. As a third-time payor, that means they are paying a 95% tax on any cash they take on. Given their place in the standings and their financial ledger, it seems like a long shot they would be involved here.

The Red Sox love to cycle through players at the back of their bullpen, frequently making small trades or minor league signings for depth. But they are now 6.5 games back of a playoff spot with the Blue Jays in between. Speaking of the Jays, they are 3.5 games out of a playoff spot but their bullpen is already quite strong. Their relievers have a collective ERA of 3.48, the fourth-best mark in the majors. Rosters expand in a couple of days but they have Chad Green rehabbing and nearing a return from last year’s Tommy John surgery.

The Marlins are three games back of a playoff spot and will certainly be motivated to gain ground, having not made the playoffs in a full season since 2003. Their bullpen has been shaky of late, especially with deadline acquisition David Robertson posting a 7.20 ERA since coming over from the Mets and getting bumped from the closer’s role. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the club is expected to put in a claim on at least one of the Angels’ relievers, though the typically-frugal club might be hesitant to take on some of the larger salaries listed above.

The Braves are last in the waiver priority list and already have one of the best bullpens in the league, making it less likely they will grab someone from this group. The Mariners have enough bullpen depth that they could flip Paul Sewald prior to the deadline and still thrive. The Phillies already have a strong bullpen and are in the second CBT tier and set to be a second-time payor.

As for the clubs that make good sense, there are plenty, as just about any contender could squeeze in a bullpen upgrade from a pure roster construction point of view. The Rangers, Astros, Cubs, Giants, Reds, Diamondbacks, Twins, Brewers, Orioles, Rays and Dodgers are each in postseason position or close to it, with another reliever being a sensible add.

The Rangers were leading their division for much of the year but have recently slid and are now in a cutthroat battle with the Astros and Mariners, with a few recent bullpen meltdowns part of the problem. They are already over the CBT but they have shown plenty of willingness to be aggressive in recent years. The Astros have a strong bullpen but it’s all right-handed, making Moore in particular a logical fit.

The Cubs love to build their bullpen via minor league deals and waiver claims, meaning they are surely intrigued. But Roster Resource and Cot’s have their CBT figure around $228MM, just a bit under the $233MM base threshold. Assuming those estimates are correct, they still have a bit of wiggle room, though those aren’t official. The Giants are one of the most creative clubs at patching together an improvised staff and could fit any of these guys into their budget if they are intrigued.

The Reds have a dynamic position player mix but a flimsy pitching staff that could use any help it can find. The Diamondbacks have a collective bullpen ERA of 4.71 that places them 25th in the majors. They added Sewald at the deadline but there’s room for further upgrades. The Twins’ bullpen is middle-of-the-pack and they are almost a lock for a playoff spot at this point, giving them incentive to further bolster the staff for October. The Brewers have a decent bullpen but have struggled to find second reliable lefty alongside Hoby Milner, which could perhaps lead to them claiming Moore.

The O’s have had a good relief group overall but it’s been a top-heavy unit headlined by Félix Bautista, who now has an injury of some sort to his UCL. The Rays have dealt with a mountain of injuries this year and aren’t shy about cycling through arms in their bullpen throughout the year. The Dodgers have been similarly bit by the injury bug, though these clubs are towards the back of the waiver line and will have to settle for the arms that the others pass on.

The Best Fits For Lucas Giolito

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Yesterday’s biggest development was the number of players reportedly on the waiver wire. The Angels, White Sox, Yankees, Mets and Tigers each put impending free agents on irrevocable waivers.

Those clubs are out of contention. The hope is that another team with a path to the playoffs will take what remains of this year’s contract off their hands. It’s particularly meaningful in the Angels’ case, as shedding enough veterans could allow them to limbo back under the luxury tax threshold after their deadline push fell flat.

No other player known to be on waivers has the upside of Lucas Giolito. The right-hander has had a tough time in Orange County, allowing a 6.89 ERA over six starts. Giolito has been the victim of a home run barrage in Southern California, allowing multiple longballs in three of those appearances. Clearly, the past month hasn’t gone as he or the team had envisioned. Yet we’re only four weeks removed from Giolito and reliever Reynaldo López (also now on waivers) fetching two of the Halos’ top prospects in trade. Now, another team could have him for nothing more than the approximate $1.9MM remaining on his arbitration contract.

Giolito isn’t the only starter out there, but he’s by far the most appealing (at least among the players publicly reported to be on waivers). The Mets made Carlos Carrasco available. He has a 6.80 ERA through 20 starts on the season, though. He hasn’t shown much sign of recent progress, allowing 35 runs and a staggering .404/.450/.654 opponents’ batting line in 29 innings since the All-Star Break. It’s hard to imagine him as an upgrade for a contending pitching staff, particularly since there’s still around $2.6MM remaining on his $14MM salary.

Mike Clevinger would be a clearer roster upgrade than Carrasco. He missed a month and a half midway through the year with biceps inflammation. A return one start before the August 1 deadline wasn’t sufficient to drum up trade interest. Clevinger has turned in a solid enough season, though, pitching to a 3.32 ERA over 97 2/3 innings. While his 20.8% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk percentage are each worse than average, it’d be easy enough for a number of hopeful contenders to find room for Clevinger at the back of their rotation — at least from an on-field perspective.

Complicating matters is the structure of the righty’s contract. Clevinger’s $8MM salary isn’t the issue, as most teams could easily accommodate the roughly $1.5MM still to be paid out. Yet there’s also a $4MM buyout on a $12MM mutual option for next season. Clevinger receives the buyout regardless of which side declines the option and is very likely to return to free agency since mutual options are almost never triggered by both sides. A claiming team would have to take on responsibility for the buyout as well — it’s all or nothing for assuming a player’s contract off waivers — so it’d be a nearly $5.5MM investment for a month (and perhaps a playoff run) of Clevinger’s services.

That’s a tough sell for a team. If there were no option buyout, he’d need to be playing this season on a $30MM salary to have that kind of money remaining on his deal. It’s hard to imagine any team views Clevinger as equivalent to a $30MM pitcher, even for just a few weeks.

While Carrasco and Clevinger seem like borderline waiver claims at best, there’s little doubt someone will add Giolito. Despite his recent struggles, he’d be a clear upgrade for fringe contenders with uncertain rotation outlooks.

A few things to remember before taking a look at the likeliest teams to make a claim. It’ll be a club with playoff aspirations. Giolito would be the best pitcher on the A’s, but there’s no incentive for them to add him when he’ll be a free agent in five weeks. Yet he’s probably not going to wind up with one of the three best teams in the sport. Waiver priority is in inverse order of the MLB standings as of tomorrow morning. The Dodgers, Orioles and/or Braves could place a claim, but it’s very likely someone with a worse record will do so as well and beat them out.

Let’s identify potential fits (in expected waiver priority order):

  • Padres (62-72)

This could be a test of how much optimism remains in the San Diego front office. The Padres are 10 games under .500 and eight out of the final NL Wild Card spot. A postseason run is hard to envision at this point. Yet the Friars held Blake Snell and Josh Hader at the deadline and acquired Garrett Cooper, Ji Man Choi, Scott Barlow and Rich Hill. If there’s any hope for 2023 left at Petco Park, a Giolito claim would be the last sign. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are on the injured list, leaving Hill and Pedro Avila in the starting five. There’s room for Giolito on the roster. A couple million dollars doesn’t seem much of a deterrent for owner Peter Seidler. The question is simply whether the Padres still think they have a shot.

  • Marlins (66-66)

Miami looked into rotation possibilities at the deadline but ultimately brought in just a depth starter in Ryan Weathers. They’ve kept Edward Cabrera in Triple-A for the past month. Johnny Cueto is on the injured list, while it’s unclear if Trevor Rogers will return at all this season. There’s a strong front four in Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and rookie Eury Pérez. There’s enough uncertainty with the final rotation spot that Miami could consider a claim.

Notably, the Marlins aren’t guaranteed to remain above the Reds’ in the waiver order. A Marlins win over the Rays paired with a Cincinnati loss in San Francisco would push Miami’s win percentage marginally above that of the Reds.

  • Reds (68-66)

The Reds are the first club where it’d be incredibly surprising if they didn’t put in a claim on Giolito. Cincinnati didn’t address their rotation at the deadline despite ranking 27th at the time in rotation ERA. They’ve been no better over the past month, with their starters allowing 5.86 earned runs per nine in 26 games. Hunter Greene returned from the injured list in the intervening weeks but was shelled in his first two starts back. Nick Lodolo —  initially expected back from a leg injury at the end of this month — suffered a setback. Even with Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson performing well of late, there’s clear room for more help. The Reds checked in with the White Sox about their rotation before the deadline, presumably at least gauging Chicago’s asking price on Giolito before they sent him to Anaheim.

  • Twins (69-65)*

Giolito would be a luxury buy for a Minnesota club that’s on its way to an AL Central title. The rotation is already strong, anchored by Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Joe Ryan. The Twins have gotten decent enough work from Dallas Keuchel that they optioned Bailey Ober to Triple-A. Placing a claim would simply be about deepening the pitching staff for the postseason, where skipper Rocco Baldelli could have quicker hooks for everyone aside from López and Gray.

  • Red Sox (69-64)

The Red Sox may feel their rotation is strong enough to pass on Giolito. They’re running with a starting five of Chris Sale, James Paxton, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford. That’s a pretty good group, although they’re middle-of-the-pack in ERA and strikeout rate since the All-Star Break. Paxton, Sale and Houck have had injury concerns. Houck and Crawford have spent time in the bullpen this season.

Starting pitching isn’t necessarily a need, but adding any kind of talent could be welcome for a club that has fallen 6.5 games out of the last AL Wild Card spot. Boston has roughly $9MM in payroll space before reaching the base luxury tax threshold, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’d only take on the remaining portion of Giolito’s salary if they claimed him, so that shouldn’t be an issue.

  • Diamondbacks (69-64)

If Cincinnati, Boston (and everyone else in front of them) passes on Giolito, the D-Backs figure to step in. They’re quite similar to the Reds. Arizona’s a surprise contender that sought but didn’t find rotation upgrades for the deadline. They also touched base with the Sox on Giolito. There’s still very little depth beyond Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Righty Slade Cecconi has five MLB appearances to his name. Brandon Pfaadt has been knocked around as a rookie. Zach Davies probably shouldn’t be starting for a team with playoff aspirations. Tommy Henry, arguably the club’s third-best starter, seems likely to miss the rest of the season with an elbow injury.

*Note: Boston, Minnesota and Arizona could swap places in waiver priority tonight. When multiple clubs have the same record, priority goes to the team in the same league as the team that put the player on waivers. Within leagues, priority goes to the team that had the worse record in prior seasons. If they all have the same record going into tomorrow, the order would go Minnesota (worse record than the Red Sox in 2021) – Boston – Arizona.

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It’s tough to envision scenarios where Giolito gets past the Diamondbacks. At least one of Miami, Cincinnati and Arizona should be motivated enough to make a claim. Contenders like the Cubs, Rays, Orioles and Dodgers may all have interest, but it’d require inexplicable decisions to pass on the part of a few teams in front of them. Perhaps clubs near the back of the waiver order will consider a flier on Clevinger as a fallback, though the aforementioned contract situation makes that far less appealing than getting Giolito would be.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Ohtani’s Torn UCL, Free Agent Power Rankings and Stephen Strasburg to Retire

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Would the Brewers be a good fit for Pete Alonso? (21:10)
  • What will the Cubs do at first base next year and could Alonso be a fit? (24:50)
  • Could Alonso fit on the Twins? (26:35)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The White Sox Fire Their Front Office, Injured Rays and Prospect Promotion Time – listen here
  • Pete Alonso’s Future, Yankees’ Rotation Troubles and Should the Trade Deadline Be Pushed Back? – listen here
  • The Streaking Mariners, the Struggling Angels and Injured Aces – listen here

Angels Place Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, Reynaldo López, Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk On Waivers

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In a stunning development, the Angels have waved the white flag on their season, placing starter Lucas Giolito, relievers Matt Moore and Reynaldo López, and outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Randal Grichuk on waivers, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. Each player is an impending free agent and the Angels are apparently hoping to save some money by having some or all of them claimed off waivers while simultaneously allowing the players to join playoff contenders before the September 1 cutoff. Dominic Leone is also on the list, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

The Halos also placed starter Tyler Anderson on waivers last week, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter). He went unclaimed and elected to stick with the Halos. That no one took Anderson on is hardly a surprise. He’s only in the first season of a three-year, $39MM free agent contract that hasn’t gone well in year one. In 117 2/3 innings, the veteran southpaw has a 5.35 ERA.

The Angels have been making a strong push to contend in recent years, trying to put a competitive ballclub around their superstars Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. Part of their offseason upgrades included signing Moore and trading for Renfroe. The club hovered around contention through the trade deadline, deciding to hang onto Ohtani as well as making further additions, including Giolito, López and Grichuk.

Unfortunately, just about everything has gone wrong in the month of August, with the club having posted a record of 7-18 so far this month. As if that weren’t enough, Ohtani was diagnosed with a tear in the ulnar collateral ligament of his throwing elbow, which will prevent him from pitching again this season. Trout, meanwhile, attempted to return from his hamate surgery despite still being sore but was in too much pain to continue and landed right back on the IL.

This brutal month has pushed the Angels’ record to 63-69, which leaves them 11.5 games back of a playoff spot. Calculations from both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus give the club no hope of coming back, making this a lost season. All six of the players reportedly on waivers are impending free agents, meaning they have no real use to the Angels now. The only player of the bunch that would warrant a qualifying offer, allowing the Angels to recoup draft pick compensation, would be Giolito but he’s ineligible to receive one since he was traded midseason.

Since the trade deadline passed four weeks ago, there’s no way for the Angels to exchange any of those players for any kind of future value. But by putting them on waivers, they at least give themselves a chance of saving some money. Giolito is making $10.4MM this year, without about $1.9MM left to be paid out. For Renfroe, those figures are $11.9MM and $2.18MM. For Moore, $7.55M and $1.38MM. López, $3.625MM and $633K. Leone is $1.5MM and $275K. Grichuk’s case is slightly more complicated since he’s making $9.33MM this year as part of the extension he signed with the Blue Jays, though that club is eating $4.33MM of that while the Rockies also sent some cash considerations is to the Angels when trading them Grichuk and C.J. Cron. There’s about $1.71MM left to be paid out though a claiming team wouldn’t be responsible for all of it.

Beyond the strict cash savings, dumping some salary will have luxury tax implications for the Angels. Roster Resource calculates the club’s competitive balance tax figure at $234.4MM, just $1.4MM over the base threshold of $233MM. Cot’s Baseball Contracts has them even farther over at $241.7MM. Both of those numbers are unofficial but highlight that the club is likely over the line by a small amount. The Angels are sure to make Ohtani a qualifying offer at season’s end and would receive draft pick compensation if he signed elsewhere. That compensation would be a pick just after the fourth round if they are a CBT payor but would move to just before the third round if they can dip below. That would roughly move the draft pick from around the 140th pick to the 75-80 range. Being a repeat payor also has escalating penalties, so avoiding paying the tax now could benefit the club if they decide to spend aggressively again next year.

In prior seasons, the July trade deadline was followed by a second deadline in August, though the latter portion required players to clear revocable waivers before being dealt. In 2019, MLB and the MLBPA agreed to a single deadline, with no trades allowed at all after the first deadline. There’s no longer any way for a club to make deals at this part of the calendar but players are still playoff eligible if they join an organization prior to September 1. That means they may find interest on the waiver wire, so long as the claiming club is willing to take on the salary of the player in question.

The waiver order goes in reverse order of standings, regardless of league. The previous August waiver trade system used to be league-specific but that’s no longer in place. As of today, the Athletics would have first dibs on any of these players, followed by the Royals, then the Rockies and so on, simply going from worst record to best, regardless of league. Of course, there’s little reason for those clubs out of contention to claim an impending free agent and take on their salary commitments. The claims are more likely to be made by clubs still hoping to make the playoffs, with those with worse records having a better chance of a successful claim than those at the top of the standings.

This will lead to some interesting calculations in the days to come. Many contending clubs have already spent the majority of the money they had allotted for the season, but will have to decide on whether it’s worthwhile to suddenly add another $1.9MM just for one month of Giolito to help with a stretch run, for example. He’s been inconsistent since joining the Angels but had a 3.79 ERA for the White Sox prior to the deal and has a longer track record of success, with a 3.86 ERA from 2019 to 2022.

Moore made a transition to the bullpen in recent years with excellent results, with a 1.95 ERA last year and 2.30 ERA this year. López is fairly similar, having gone from a fairly mediocre starter earlier in his career to effective reliever, including a 3.86 ERA this year. Renfroe’s production has been up-and-down, with a .240/.300/.480 batting line in his career but a lesser .239/.300/.425 showing this year. Grichuk is having another season with his blend of power but a subpar walk rate, slashing .261/.317/.435. Leone has struggled with control but has generally posted above-average strikeout rates.

For the players, they likely aren’t thrilled about being subject to the whims of the waiver wire, especially the ones who only just became Angels recently. But they will at least likely find themselves moving from a sinking ship to a contender in the coming days, giving them a chance to compete in a playoff race and perhaps get into the postseason.

As for the clubs considering a claim, this will be their best chance to bolster their rosters for the final month of the season, now that the deadline is long gone. It’s also possible that a new precedent has been set for the end of August, as it’s not just the Angels that have taken this tack. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has reported that Carlos Carrasco of the Mets, Mike Clevinger of the White Sox and José Cisnero of the Tigers have also been placed on waivers, while Erik Boland of Newsday first reported that Harrison Bader of the Yankees is also on the list.

Though the moves make some sense for the Angels, it’s undoubtedly a frustrating low point as the attempts to contend have repeatedly failed. They gave up several notable prospects to acquire some of these players just a few weeks ago and are now trying to give them away for little more than cost savings. They are now sure to finish the season without having made the playoffs since 2014 and could potentially watch Ohtani sign with a new club this winter.

West Notes: Eovaldi, Ohtani, Giants, Silseth

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Rangers right-hander Nathan Eovaldi, who has been on the injured list for over a month thanks to a forearm strain, has recently been expected to rejoin the Texas rotation during their upcoming series against the Mets, which begins tomorrow. As noted by Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, however, that won’t come to fruition after Eovaldi felt some discomfort in his side during a bullpen session on Thursday. The new plan is for Eovaldi to partake in another bullpen session on Tuesday before the club determines whether he’ll need a rehab assignment or can directly return to the club’s pitching staff.

Eovaldi’s continued absence is a serious blow to the Rangers, as the right-hander has posted a phenomenal 2.69 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 123 2/3 innings of work this season. By measure of ERA+, he’s been 61% better than league average when on the field this season. That sort of production is difficult to replace, and while deadline acquisitions Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery have done an admirable job with a combined 2.22 ERA across nine starts since joining the organization, the club has nonetheless posted a record of just 17-17 since Eovaldi went on the shelf, a mediocre performance that’s allowed the surging Mariners to catch them in the standings.

More from around MLB’s West divisions…

  • While plenty of suitors for superstar Shohei Ohtani may have a renewed sense of caution regarding his impending free agency after it was announced that the two-way phenom is dealing with a UCL tear that will prevent him from taking the mound again this season, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle suggests that the Giants are not among those teams and will still aggressively pursue Ohtani. Shea asserts that the Giants have the financial muscle required to get a deal done, referencing big-money offers to Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last offseason that ultimately didn’t reach the finish line, while also suggesting the the club’s tendency to be cautious regarding pitcher healthy could be attractive for Ohtani as he looks to work his way back onto the major league mound.
  • Angels right-hander Chase Silseth exited last night’s game against the Mets following a scary moment where he was struck in the head by an errant throw from teammate Trey Cabbage. After initially falling to the ground after being struck, Silseth was helped off the field by team trainers. Fortunately, the worst appears to have been avoided, as ESPN notes that manager Phil Nevin told reporters that he “think(s) we avoided something serious, but with head injuries you always want to be cautious.” Silseth owns a 4.10 ERA (111 ERA+) in 48 1/3 innings of work while swinging between the rotation and bullpen for the Angels this season.
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