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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Barry Bonds

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The biggest name remaining in the free agent market is one Barry Lamar Bonds. The most recent rumored destinations for the all-time home run champ have been the Rays, Mets and even Japan. The Rays say there was never any serious consideration and the Mets say they are not interested.

The biggest question mark concerning Bonds is whether his production at age 43 is worth the circus that follows, both in the clubhouse and in the media. Yesterday at my home base, Rays Index, I contacted Chone Smith of Anaheim Angels All The Way, and creator of the CHONE projection system.  Smith had used his projection system to predict that the final regular season standings. The Rays are projected to win 89 games and finish third in the AL East, based on a considerable improvement in pitching and defense. The Mets are projected to win 92 games.

In an effort to estimate Bonds’ on-field impact, we asked Smith to substitute Bonds into the Rays and Mets lineups and rerun his projections. With Bonds in the lineup, both the Mets and the Rays improved by 3 games in the standings and approximately 30 net runs (As an Angels fan, Smith kindly refused to run the same projection for the Mariners or the A’s, lest those teams start thinking Bonds is a good idea).

If the Rays are indeed an 87-89 win team (PECOTA projects 88 wins), then Bonds might be a difference-maker. While signing Bonds may indeed be a headache, the difference between 89 wins and 92 wins for the Rays could be the difference between the 2007 Brewers (just missed) and the 2007 Rockies (World Series). And the difference between 92 wins and 95 wins for the Mets could be the difference between the 2007 Mets (one game short) and the 2007 Phillies (one game not short).

To quote one commenter from Rays Index, "Media scrutiny is only hard if you suck.  If you’re good, it’s fun."

Let’s take a look at what else is being said about Bonds in the Blogosphere…

If there is a topic you would like to see covered in "Baseball Blogs Weigh In" please let me know HERE.

  • Squawking Baseball thinks the Angels could be a solid fit for Bonds.
  • Baseball Musings will miss Bonds if he doesn’t play this year, and lists several teams that should consider signing him.
  • Amazin’ Avenue explores "The Bonds Market" and express their desire for the Mets to sign the aging slugger, calling the apparent blackballing "disgraceful".
  • Mike’s Mets doesn’t see Bonds as a clubhouse cancer and thinks he would be good for the Mets, but does not think he will fit from a financial perspective.
  • Bugs & Cranks feels that the Dodgers would have a much better shot at winning the NL West if they signed Bonds.

Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.

Odds and Ends: Baldelli, Salcedo, Piazza, Rivera

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Time for today’s linkage.

Braves Interested In Juan Rivera?

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Juan Rivera is in a tough place – he doesn’t have an opportunity to prove he can be a healthy and effective outfielder despite heading into his contract year.  He’s been very respectful to the Angels about his situation though.  Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times recently speculated that Rivera would have a starting role on teams like the Braves, Mets, or Giants.  Rivera’s best year was ’06, when he hit .310/.362/.525 in 124 games.  But then Rivera broke his leg in winter ball in December of that year and it’s been a long time coming back.  Ken Rosenthal suggested Sunday that Reggie Willits was not available but the Angels want to trade Rivera.

Yesterday evening, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution said the following regarding Rivera:

After talking to a couple of people today, I think there’s something to the Juan Rivera thing. I believe the Braves do have interest, just not sure if there’s a match….

Rivera would be a nice addition for Atlanta, though Matt Diaz deserves his shot in left field.  But Rivera could also push out Scott Thorman and serve as Mark Teixeira’s backup.

Angels, Orioles Eyeing Barmes

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TUESDAY: Add the Orioles as another team with Barmes on the radar.  Troy Renck says he’s not available despite the interest.  The O’s really need to get in a few more capable shortstop candidates, regardless.

MONDAY: Remember 2005, when Rockies shortstop Clint Barmes hit .329/.371/.516 through 51 games to start the season?  Then he was sidelined for two months with a broken clavicle from the infamous deer meat incident.  Maybe the hot-hitting was a simple fluke, but Barmes posted just a .584 OPS in 640 career ABs since coming back from the injury.  He lost his job to Troy Tulowitzki in the meantime.

The 29 year-old doesn’t have much of a role in Colorado, and he’s out of options.  According to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post, the Angels have Barmes on the radar.  It’d be a nice situation for him, as the Angels’ current shortstops haven’t proven themselves as regulars yet.  I imagine a nondescript minor leaguer would be all the Rockies would want.

Odds and Ends: Garland, Linden, A-Rod

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Time to round up various tidbits and rumors.

Odds and Ends: Roberts, Gibbons, Matthews

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  • The Cubs and Orioles continue to be linked in trade speculation involving Brian Roberts. The latest from the Chicago Tribune says that an Orioles scout was in attendance for Sean Gallagher’s two hitless innings on Saturday. The amount of time it’s taking for these two clubs to get their acts together on this deal continues to be mind-boggling.
  • The Trib is also reporting that Jon Lieber took a big step towards earning the fifth spot in the Cubs rotation on Saturday, coming through with four shutout innings against the Diamondbacks. Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis are also in the mix.  It figures that the loser(s) of this battle could be trade candidates.
  • Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun is reporting that Jay Gibbons looks like a natural pick to be the odd man out in Baltimore’s outfield, but the two years and $11.9MM left on his contract– plus the small matter of an appearance in the Mitchell Report and his upcoming 15-day suspension for violating MLB’s drug policy– means he’s not exactly going to be the easiest fourth outfielder in the world to move.
  • Speaking of expensive fourth outfielders named in the Mitchell Report, Gary Matthews Jr. insists to the Orange County Register that he’s perfectly happy with the Angels decision to bring in Torii Hunter. No, seriously.

Posted by Andrew Stoeten of Drunk Jays Fans.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Crede, Willits, Rivera, Belliard

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Ken Rosenthal checks in with all kinds of hot stove info.

  • Continuing on yesterday’s post regarding Joe Crede and the Dodgers , Rosenthal reports that a source close to Dodgers management explained that the team trading for a third baseman like Crede or Brandon Inge is "all about the budget and whether [owner Frank] McCourt will allow them to add money."  Rosenthal continues to point out that Crede is a better deal than Inge in terms of their contracts, and that Crede could also be more attractive to Dodgers management because the White Sox might be willing to trade for prospects, while the Tigers are looking for immediate bullpen help.
  • The Mariners had been in the market for a veteran right-handed hitting outfielder, but have opted instead for in-house options.  It seems Coco Crisp could have filled a need.  Sure, he’s a switch-hitter, but his splits suggest it could have made some sense.  If they didn’t have to part with too much, it might have worked.
  • The Angels have a surplus in the outfield — Juan Rivera and Reggie Willits — and Rosenthal reports that Willits is now untouchable according to the Angels (two teams have inquired after him recently).  The two are blocked by Vladimir Guerrero, Garrett Anderson, Torii Hunter, and Gary Matthews Jr.  While it sounds as if they’d prefer to move Rivera (a free agent at season’s end), it’s hard to imagine that they’d send Willits to the minors (he has options remaining) if they don’t find a good match for Rivera (Umpbump Coley suggested the Padres or Mets yesterday).  As Coley pointed out, the Angels have numerous banged up pitchers, and there are a number of teams out there who are going to be starting center fielders with inferior skill sets compared to Willits (as Tim pointed out a few days ago).
  • The Nationals are dealing with a surplus at second base, and Rosenthal believes that Ron Belliard is the most logical piece to move, what with his $1.6MM salary this season, and his $1.9MM for next.  Rosenthal pinpoints the Rockies (perhaps too little range on the right side with Jeff Baker and Todd Helton), Cardinals, Twins, and White Sox as potential trade partners.

Posted by Matt Birt

On The Block: Coco Crisp And Juan Rivera

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Coco Crisp isn’t too happy about his competition for Boston’s center field job. Today, the Boston Herald reports that Coco is calling the situation "bogus." Why would you want to sit on the bench?" Coco asks. "Why would you want to do that?"

Meanwhile, on the left coast, the Angels’ Juan Rivera finds himself the odd man out in L.A.’s crowded outfield, but isn’t getting worked up about it. The L.A. Times says Rivera wouldn’t mind sitting the bench, if it comes to that. "There’s no pressure from the owner, no pressure from the fans, no pressure from the media," Rivera says.

Both Crisp and Rivera are candidates to be dealt by the start of the season. The Times points out that the Angels could trade Rivera for pitching depth, given that Kelvim Escobar and Chris Bootcheck will start the season on the disabled list and John Lackey and Scot Shields are fighting nagging injuries. As Big Mike noted earlier, San Diego might be looking for an outfielder now that Jim Edmonds is out with an injury. And the Mets are dangling pitchers in an attempt to find a replacement for injured Moises Alou.

By Umpbump Coley

Blocked Prospects: Reggie Willits

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As a 26 year-old with roughly one full season worth of Major League experience, Reggie Willits may not technically be a prospect.  But with Torii Hunter signed through 2012, Vladimir Guerrero through 2009 and likely to stay longer, and Gary Matthews Jr. through 2011, Willits certainly qualifies as blocked.  Terry Evans and Nathan Haynes are similarly impeded, and the latter is out of options.  But let’s center on Willits.

I want to focus on Willits because he is capable of playing center field.  In their 2007 handbook, Baseball America called him an "above-average center fielder with an average arm and plus speed."  So he clearly won’t embarrass himself with the glove. 

Offensively, Willits profiles as the ideal leadoff hitter.  In 576 big league plate appearances, he’s drawn 80 walks.  A walk rate near 14% and a .393 career OBP makes for a valuable center fielder, even with no power.  Baseball Prospectus sees him dipping to .269/.353/.354 this year, a performance worth $5MM even if he plays only two-thirds of a season.  He’s also a switch-hitter with no discernible split.  And for the next two seasons, Willits will earn less than a million bucks total.

I’ll assume another team would look to maximize Willits’ value by using him in center.  He could help the Twins, A’s, Braves, Marlins, Cubs, and Padres to various degrees.  The first four teams do have more interesting long-term options in center though.  The idea of Willits to San Diego has come up before; that’s the best fit.  The Angels are going with internal options at third base and shortstop as well as in the rotation.  If any of those fail, Willits, Evans, and Haynes could become primary trading chips.

Odds and Ends: Crede, Rodriguez, Marlins

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Just a couple items worth mentioning:

  • Matt Hurst notes Elasticman Scot Shields says "(Heck) yeah" to whether or not the Angels should dish out the big bucks for Francisco Rodriguez, this despite incentives in Shields contract that would kick in should he be transitioned into the closer role.
  • Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun Times touches in on Joe Crede’s fate after notching his first homerun of the spring, easing concerns for his surgically repaired back.  Says Cowley, "Crede’s agent, Scott Boras, already has told general manager Ken Williams that they want to explore the market. With Josh Fields waiting in the wings, the Sox are dealing from a position of strength. The Giants are a top suitor."  Scouts were present for Crede’s homerun.
  • Marlins Owner Jeff Loria says payroll is "all going to be a function of the revenues we generate.  If we have a bigger base than we anticipate, that will go back to the payroll."  This from Tom D’Angelo of the Palm Beach Post who add, "When asked if the team could lock up young stars like shortstop Hanley Ramirez for the long term, Loria said: ’We’re going to look at that going forward.  But we are challenged until we get into that new stadium."  The Marlins payroll this year is just under $20MM.

By Nat Boyle

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