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Patrick Sandoval Out For The Season

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Angels southpaw Patrick Sandoval is out for the year with a stress fracture in his back, per Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter). Sandoval was placed the injured list on August 15th, but the severity of the injury was not clear at that time.

For Sandoval, this is an unfortunate setback right at a time when he appeared to be establishing himself in manager Joe Maddon’s rotation. For the Angels, then, this is particularly disheartening considering how much they’ve struggled to find and develop arms.

Still, the 25-year-old can count 2021 as a success. He has a 3.62 ERA/4.03 FIP in 87 innings with a 25.9 percent strikeout rate, 9.9 percent walk rate, and solid 50.7 percent groundball rate. Sandoval’s walk rate remains a little high, but paired with an above-average strikeout rate, he’s been able to limit hard contact and post the best home run rate of his young career.

In the long run, the Angels will slot Sandoval into a rotation slot for 2022. Their success next year may very well depend on who else joins Sandoval and Shohei Ohtani in that rotation. Griffin Canning — also out for the season — will join them, and they’re sure to look for outside additions. Promising young arms like Reid Detmers, Chris Rodriguez, and Packy Naughton will also get a look.

For now, however, the Angels will continue to make due. Alex Cobb is working to return soon from injury after a better-than-usual start to the season. Cooper Criswell gets the start tonight, making his Major League debut.

Angels Select Jake Petricka, Elvis Peguero

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The Angels announced they’ve selected the contracts of right-handers Jake Petricka and Elvis Peguero. Infielder Kean Wong has also been recalled from Triple-A Salt Lake. In corresponding moves, right-hander Dylan Bundy is headed to the 10-day injured list with a right shoulder strain, while hurlers Reid Detmers and Austin Warren have been placed on the COVID-19 IL.

Petricka’s back in the majors for the first time since 2019. A productive set-up man early in his career with the White Sox, Petricka bounced around the league in journeyman fashion after falling on harder times starting in 2016. He pitched for the Blue Jays in 2018 and had a brief stint with the Brewers the following season. Petricka re-signed with the Jays last season and spent the year at their alternate training site, but he never got a big league call. After beginning the 2021 campaign in the independent Atlantic League, Petricka hooked on with the Angels in early June.

Assigned to Salt Lake after signing, Petricka performed well in a hitter-friendly setting to earn his way back to the majors. He’s worked 31 2/3 innings across 19 games as a multi-inning relief option, posting a 3.69 ERA. Petricka’s 23.4% strikeout rate in the minors is around average, but he’s induced ground-balls at a huge 53.8% clip and thrown plenty of strikes (7.3% walk percentage).

While Petricka’s soon to appear in his eighth big league season, this is Peguero’s first call. The 24-year-old was one of two players Los Angeles picked up from the Yankees for left-hander Andrew Heaney at the trade deadline. Peguero, who has worked exclusively in relief this season, has rather remarkably traversed four levels. He began the year with New York’s High-A affiliate, where he tossed 32 1/3 innings of 2.51 ERA ball to earn a promotion to Double-A. Peguero logged 17 2/3 frames at that level, then made a one-game cameo in Salt Lake before being bumped up to the big leagues. Between all three levels, he has a 2.79 ERA with a big 31.8% strikeout rate and a solid 8.5% walk rate.

Petricka and Peguero are coming up as COVID replacements. Under MLB’s 2021 health and safety protocols, they can be removed from the 40-man roster and returned to the minors without exposure to waivers whenever players come off the COVID IL. There’s no indication whether Detmers and/or Warren have tested positive at this point.

Bundy’s IL placement is the continuation of a disastrous season for the 28-year-old. He entered the season with high expectations after posting a 3.29 ERA in last year’s truncated campaign. His strikeout rate has dropped from a strong 27% to a below-average 21.2%, and his walk rate is up a couple percentage points. He’s also been killed by the home run ball, serving up 20 longballs in 90 2/3 innings en route to a 6.06 ERA.

The extent of Bundy’s underperformance briefly got him relegated to the bullpen, although he’d returned to the starting staff in late July. He was pulled from his start against the Orioles last night in the second inning with the injury that today landed him on the shelf. Bundy’s fastball was averaging just 87.6 MPH, per Brooks Baseball, his worst velocity of the season and the continuation of a worrying trend in that regard over the past few weeks. The Angels didn’t provide a timetable for Bundy’s return. With just over five weeks left in the season, though, it wouldn’t be a surprise if this ends his 2021 campaign.

The career-worst performance couldn’t have come at a worse time for Bundy, who will reach free agency for the first time this winter. Had he come anywhere close to replicating his 2020 production, he’d have been one of the most appealing arms on the market — especially given his youth. Instead, it seems as if he might have to settle for a one-year deal in hopes of rebuilding his value and targeting a return to form in advance of the 2022-23 offseason.

The Angels Need More Than Just New Pitchers To Improve Their Pitching Staff

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With a 62-64 record, the Angels are facing the possibility of a sixth consecutive losing season, which would match the 1971-77 Angels for the longest stretch of sub-.500 seasons in franchise history.  Naturally, not having Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon healthy for almost the entire year is the biggest reason for the Angels’ woes in 2021, though the club has once again failed to receive consistent results from its pitching staff.  Entering Monday’s play, Anaheim pitchers have combined for a 4.70 ERA, tied for the seventh-highest mark of any team in baseball.

Both the rotation and bullpen are pretty equally culpable for these struggles, yet in looking at the list of names on the roster, there are actually quite a few hurlers enjoying solid-to-great seasons.  Shohei Ohtani and Raisel Iglesias have been excellent, while the likes of Patrick Sandoval, Alex Cobb, Mike Mayers, Jose Suarez, and Steve Cishek have all delivered quality numbers.  Several pitchers have certainly delivered subpar performances to balance out the better arms, and yet it isn’t as if the Angels are bereft of pitching talent — shouldn’t they be better than this?

The real problem goes beyond just the bottom-line number of that 4.70 ERA.  While it’s hard to argue against Los Angeles adding a significant pitching upgrade or two this winter, the team’s issue isn’t just with pitching, but with run prevention.  The Angels’ pitching may not be very good, yet there’s no argument that the defense has been anything but bad in 2021.

The Halos rank 29th of 30 teams in UZR/150 (-7.3), and 27th in both Defensive Runs Saved (-29) and Outs Above Average (-6).  The result is that Angels pitchers have a collective .302 BABIP, the fifth-highest mark of any team in baseball.  Going beyond the team ERA category, Angels pitchers actually crack the top half of the league in SIERA, with a 4.14 mark that ranks 15th of 30 teams.  Anaheim has one of the bigger gaps of any team between their pitching staff’s wOBA (.320) and xwOBA (.309), and the pitching corps is also doing a solid job of limiting hard contact.

Since finding good defense is generally cheaper than finding good pitching on the open market, perhaps the easiest way for the Angels to keep runs off the board in 2022 is to tighten up the glovework.  There are some challenges on this front considering that the Halos seemingly have much of their 2022 position player mix already in place, and Ohtani has the designated hitter spot on lockdown.  Looking at the settled positions in the infield, it’s safe to assume that the Angels will line up with Max Stassi getting at least half of the playing time at catcher, Jared Walsh at first base, David Fletcher at second base, and Rendon back and hopefully healthy at third base.

Of this group, only Stassi has been a clear defensive standout in 2021, and he has quietly been one of the game’s better-fielding catchers for a few years now, both in terms of his work behind the plate and pitch-framing.  Since Kurt Suzuki’s defensive numbers have never been particularly impressive, the Halos could let Suzuki walk in free agency and add more of a defense-first backup behind Stassi, whose offensive breakout has likely earned him the majority of the catching duties next year.

Walsh is nothing special as a first baseman, but he is a better fit at first base than as an outfielder, and Walsh’s bat has definitely earned a spot in the lineup.  Depending on which defensive metric you prefer, Fletcher has either been quite good (+4 DRS), average (0 Outs Above Average) or subpar (-5.3 UZR/150) over his 910 2/3 innings at the keystone this season.  Considering Rendon has been a strong defender for much of his career, it is quite possible that his below-average numbers this year were due to his injuries, and he’ll return to normal in 2022.

This leaves shortstop as the glaring hole, which is ironic since the acquisition of Jose Iglesias last offseason was supposed to be the move that shored up the defense.  Instead, Iglesias’ usually strong glovework dropped off considerably, as he has -17 DRS and a -8.9 UZR/150 over 935 2/3 innings at shortstop.  OAA rates Iglesias as exactly average, yet even that represents a decline, and certainly less what the Angels expected when they obtained Iglesias from the Orioles.

Since the 2021-22 free agent class is loaded with star shortstops, the obvious move for the Angels would be to make another big-ticket position player signing and bring one of those headline names (i.e. Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Chris Taylor, Javier Baez) to Anaheim.  However, with Trout and Rendon locked up to long-term deals, Justin Upton owed $28MM in 2022, and future funds required for a potential Ohtani extension, the Angels might not have the budget to add yet another big contract to the lineup.

Of the major names, Baez is perhaps the most intriguing as a potential fit.  Baez struggled at the plate in 2020 and has been roughly a league-average hitter this year, providing a less-than-stellar platform as he enters free agency.  It isn’t out the question that Baez accepts a one-year pillow contract in order to rebuild his value in 2022, so he can then re-enter a free agent market that isn’t so heavy in prominent shortstops.  Baez and Angels manager Joe Maddon know each other well from their days with the Cubs, so Baez could see Anaheim as a nice spot to rediscover his hitting stroke.  It is worth noting that both OAA and UZR/150 indicate a defensive decline for Baez from 2020 to 2021, though at the right price on a one-year contract, Baez could be a risk the Angels are willing to take.

If not a bigger name, L.A. could attempt to acquire another lower-cost, glove-first option as they did with Iglesias last winter.  (Even a reunion with Iglesias himself might not be out of the question, though likely as a part-time option at most.)  Signing a player like Jonathan Villar could add to the Angels’ overall bench versatility, as the team could then mix and match Fletcher and Villar at either middle infield position.

While Anaheim fans may balk at the idea of passing on all these major shortstops, the Angels could still benefit from the 2021-22 shortstop class in a more indirect manner.  For instance, if a team that already has a quality shortstop decides to make a big splash by adding a new signing, the Angels could step in as a trade partner to acquire the former incumbent.

Turning to the outfield, the Angels will have Trout, Upton, and highly-touted youngsters Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh all in line for regular time, with Taylor Ward providing some additional depth.  From a pure glovework perspective, the ideal everyday alignment would have Marsh up the middle in center field, with Trout moving to a corner outfield slot and only getting occasional action in center field (or maybe a bigger role in his normal center field job if Marsh isn’t quite ready for prime time).

According to both DRS and UZR/150, Trout has been a below-average fielder in four of the last five seasons.  A shift to a corner role could theoretically help preserve Trout’s legs in the wake of the calf injury that has cost him much of the 2021 season, and since Marsh already looks like he can handle center field, a position change might be the wisest move to both upgrade the Angels’ defense and help keep Trout on the field.  The easiest timeshare would be to sit the left-handed hitting Marsh against opposing southpaws, giving the Angels an Upton/Trout/Adell outfield alignment whenever the Angels face a lefty starter.

After some very shaky outings as a rookie in 2020, Adell has at least looked passable in the small sample size of his outfield work this year.  Upton has been roughly a replacement-level player for the last three seasons and it has been years since he has been even a decent left fielder.  Since his big salary will be hard to move in a deal (and Upton has no-trade protection), he still has a role to play if either Adell or Marsh can’t get on track at the plate against big league pitching.

A defense-first backup would make a lot of sense for the Angels, so the team could look to bring back a familiar face in Juan Lagares.  Los Angeles looked to Dexter Fowler as another veteran regular for the outfield before a torn ACL ended his season in early April, and if Fowler’s recovery is coming along, the Angels could also give him another look on an inexpensive contract.

(To address the inevitable Ohtani question, Maddon is on record as saying that Ohtani could easily handle regular outfield work if he devoted himself to the position.  As much as we’ve learned to not count Ohtani out for anything, it doesn’t seem likely that the Angels would increase Ohtani’s workload and injury risk by making him anything more than a late-game fill-in outfielder.)

How do you improve a defense with mostly the same players?  Installing a new shortstop, a new part-time/backup catcher, getting Rendon and Trout back, and then changing the alignment of the outfield might be all it takes to turn the Angels’ defense from lousy into at least average.  With even decent team defense, there is a very strong chance that the Halos would likely not only have a winning record, but possibly still a chance at a playoff spot.

Between a lack of consistent pitching and the injury concerns that seem to befall the Halos rotation almost every season, the club should be taking a much broader approach to the problem of how to keep opposing lineups in check.  In fairness to GM Perry Minasian, it seems like he tried to do just this by landing Iglesias, but more is needed in the wake of what is looking like another non-playoff year.  The Angels haven’t signed a free agent starter to a multi-year contract in almost nine years (since Joe Blanton in December 2012), so if the team plans to continue shopping for only second- or third-tier starters, Anaheim will need a much better defensive effort to compensate.

Angels Place Jose Marte On Injured List, Recall James Hoyt

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The Angels have placed righty Jose Marte on the injured list, per a team announcement. Fellow righty James Hoyt has been recalled to take his spot on the roster.

Acquired just a few weeks ago in the Tony Watson trade, the Angels added Marte to their roster on Friday. The 25-year-old made his major-league debut that very night, which could hardly have gone much better. In two innings out of the bullpen, Marte allowed just one hit, a single, and struck out four. Unfortunately, he won’t be able to immediately build off the momentum of that sizzling debut, heading to the IL for unspecified reasons.

As for Hoyt, this is yet another move in the unfortunate life of the optionable reliever. He’s already been recalled and optioned five times previously this season. Acquired from the Marlins for cash considerations at the end of spring training, Hoyt has a monstrous ERA of 10.41 through 27 2/3 Triple-A innings this year. His ERA in the majors this season is almost half as high, coming in at 5.40, though that is over a small sample size of just 6 2/3 innings.

AL West Notes: Astros, Bregman, Angels, Trout, A’s, Brown, Piscotty

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The Astros are expected to activate star third baseman Alex Bregman from the injured list on Monday, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter). That should be welcome news for the Houston faithful. The Astros have been without Bregman since June 17th when he suffered a quad strain. He will play what could be a final rehab game for Triple-A Sugar Land tomorrow, tweets Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. The Astros have held up without Bregman, but with just a 2.5 game lead over the A’s in the West, Dusty Baker’s squad could certainly use another big bat. Speaking of those Athletics…

  • Seth Brown wasn’t gone for long. The A’s outfielder was optioned to Triple-A yesterday, but he’s back on the active roster today, replacing Stephen Piscotty, who heads to the 10-day injured list with a sprained left wrist, the team announced. Brown steps right into the starting lineup today playing right field. Piscotty, meanwhile, is suffering through the worst season of his career, slashing .220/.282/.353 in 173 plate appearances — an output worth -0.6 rWAR.
  • Mike Trout is running about every other day, and though he’s nearing a rehab assignment, a date has not yet been set, per Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com (via Twitter). The Angels are exactly .500 at 62-62, which puts them 11 games out of first and 8.5 out of a playoff spot. Trout doesn’t exactly have to hustle back for the playoff race, then, though the Halos do have a chance to finish above .500 for the first time since 2015. Trout has been out since May 18th with a calf strain, though the superstar refers to the injury as a tear.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Angels Select Jose Marte

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The Angels announced they’ve selected the contract of reliever Jose Marte. Fellow bullpen arm Aaron Slegers was optioned to Triple-A Salt Lake in a corresponding move. Los Angeles already had an opening on the 40-man roster, so no additional transaction was necessary.

Marte is in line to make his big league debut. The right-hander signed with the Giants as an amateur from the Dominican Republic during the 2015-16 offseason. He’s spent the bulk of his career in the San Francisco system, where he’s entered each of the past three seasons in the back half of the Giants’ top 30 prospects list at Baseball America.

Entering 2021, BA ranked Marte #30 among San Francisco minor leaguers, writing that his high-90’s fastball and low-90’s slider could make him an effective bullpen piece. That said, Marte also has some rather notable issues with his control that led San Francisco to leave him exposed in last winter’s Rule 5 draft, where he went unselected.

The Angels acquired Marte just before the trade deadline as part of a three-player return for reliever Tony Watson. He’d have again been Rule 5 eligible this offseason if not selected to the 40-man roster, so there’s little harm for the Angels in getting him a look at the big league level down the stretch. Marte has spent the majority of this season at Double-A, posting a 3.16 ERA over 25 2/3 innings with a massive 36.3% strikeout percentage but an elevated 15% walk rate.

Angels Sign Jimmy Herget

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The Angels have signed reliever Jimmy Herget to a minor league contract, according to J.P. Hoornstra of the Orange County Register. The righty is listed on the active roster with Triple-A Salt Lake.

Herget elected free agency earlier this week after being designated for assignment by the division-rival Rangers. Prior to his designation, the 27-year-old had put together a very nice season with their top affiliate in Round Rock. Over 37 2/3 innings with the Express, Herget posted a 2.63 ERA while striking out a lofty 30.6% of batters faced against a better than average 7.6% walk rate. That’s par for the course, as Herget has an ERA of 3.47 or lower in all four of his seasons at Triple-A, split between the Reds’ and Rangers’ organizations.

That high minors success hasn’t carried over to the big leagues, however, leading to Texas’ decision to move on this week. Herget has pitched in the majors in each of the past three years, tallying a cumulative 4.20 ERA over thirty frames. That’s decent enough run prevention, but his strikeout and walk rates (14.5% and 13%, respectively) are much worse than league average.

There’s little harm for the Angels in adding Herget as high minors depth. He would remain under team control as a pre-arbitration player for 2022 if Los Angeles selects him to the major league roster before the end of the season. If Herget doesn’t make it to the majors with the Angels, he would qualify for minor league free agency this offseason.

Angels Place Patrick Sandoval On Injured List

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The Angels placed starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval on the 10-day injured list due to a lumbar spine stress reaction. José Quintana will start tomorrow afternoon’s game against the Tigers in his place. A specific timetable for Sandoval’s return isn’t yet clear, but manager Joe Maddon suggested to reporters (including J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group) there was some chance it’d be a season-ending injury.

The rotation has been a disappointment for the Angels, who sit at an even 61-61 and look likely to miss the postseason for the seventh consecutive year. Sandoval, though, has been a somewhat surprising bright spot. The 24-year-old began the season with Triple-A Salt Lake but was recalled in early May and has been a rotation fixture over the past few months.

Sandoval has worked to a 3.62 ERA across 87 innings. He’s struck out an above-average 25.9% of batters faced and induced groundballs at a very strong 51.1% clip. Sandoval has walked a slightly elevated 9.9% of opponents, but there’s little question he’s shown plenty of promise.

Indeed, there’s real reason to believe Sandoval could potentially reach another level upon his return to health. He’s generated whiffs on a massive 15.2% of his pitches. That’s the eighth-highest rate among the 125 pitchers with 80+ innings pitched. The seven names above him on that list (Jacob deGrom, Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber, Clayton Kershaw, Corbin Burnes, Max Scherzer and Carlos Rodón) are among the top handful of pitchers in the game and/or having Cy Young-caliber seasons. That’s extremely impressive company for a relatively unheralded player like Sandoval to keep, making his current injury all the more unfortunate.

At the very least, Sandoval seemingly showed enough this season to lock himself into Los Angeles’ season-opening rotation for 2022. With the Angels looking unlikely to be playing for much in September, they figure to be especially cautious with one of their most promising young arms. The Angels figure to rely on Quintana in Sandoval’s absence, at least until Alex Cobb returns from his own IL stint.

Angels Designate Adam Eaton For Assignment

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The Angels have designated Adam Eaton for assignment, per a team announcement. His roster spot will go to righty James Hoyt, who has been recalled.

This will be Eaton’s second time being designated for assignment this season, after being let go by the White Sox in July. The club and the outfielder had reunited in the offseason, agreeing to a one-year, $8MM contract. Unfortunately, the lefty wasn’t able to produce enough to hold onto a roster spot with the Pale Hose, hitting .201/.298/.344 over 219 plate appearances, a wRC+ of 82.

A few days after being released, he signed on with the Angels, who tried to use Eaton to patch over the holes in their outfield created by injuries to Dexter Fowler, Mike Trout and Justin Upton. But Eaton’s numbers have only trended downward, a line of .200/.232/.277, producing a wRC+ of 39 since coming to Los Angeles. With the return of Upton and the team giving more playing time to up-and-coming prospects like Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell, Eaton has no found himself squeezed out.

With the White Sox still on the hook for the bulk of his salary, some other club could give Eaton a chance with no financial risk, only having to pay him the prorated league minimum.

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