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Poll: Will Anyone Get To 60 Home Runs This Year?

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It’s been a great year for power hitters in MLB, as five different players slugged their 40th home run of the season before the end of August. It’s not often that so many hitters enter September with a realistic shot at the lofty threshold of 60 home runs in a season. It’s a feat that’s only been accomplished nine times, and the combination of Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire account for five of those nine 60-homer seasons. Of course, it’s an incredibly rare feat for a reason, and many promising campaigns fall short in the season’s final month. 12 seasons with between 56 and 59 home runs have been logged throughout MLB history, after all.

Will this year’s biggest power threats join that club of also-ran seasons, or will we see the tenth 60-homer season in MLB history come to fruition this year? Here’s a look at each of the top home run hitters from this season and their chances of reaching that illustrious 60-homer plateau, in order of their current home run totals for 2025:

Cal Raleigh

While everyone else on this list hit their 40th homer of the season in August, Raleigh’s 40th home run was actually slugged on July 26. The Mariners’ catcher has had a historic season this year, setting the all-time single season home run record for a catcher while sitting just four behind Mickey Mantle for the all-time single season record for home runs by a switch hitter. With 50 homers tallied so far this year, it’s hard not to see why Raleigh could have a very real shot at hitting 60 home runs this season. He’s hit at least ten homers in three of the season’s five months so far, and has never hit less than eight in a month this year. With that being said, it’s also worth noting that Raleigh has slowed down a bit in the second half of the season. In 40 games since the All-Star break, Raleigh has posted just a 112 wRC+ with 12 home runs. With just 25 games left to play on the Mariners’ schedule, he’ll need to pick up the pace if he’s going to reach 60 homers this year.

Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber is just one homer back of Raleigh in the race for the MLB home run lead after an incredible four-home run performance on August 28. Schwarber has long been one of the game’s premiere power threats and, like Raleigh, has hit at least 10 homers in three of this season’s five months so far. He’ll need to hit 11 in 25 September games in order to reach 60 homers, but one thing working in his favor is that he’s saved most of his power for the second half this year. He’s hit 12 home runs in both July and August, so if he can put up just one more month like the last two, he’ll get there. Of course, a player slugging .655 over his past 52 games also runs the risk of getting pitched around, which could damage Schwarber’s chances of making it to 60. One thing that could work in Schwarber’s favor is his home ballpark, as Statcast considers Citizens Bank Park to be the fifth-most homer friendly stadium in the majors this year.

Shohei Ohtani

With three MVP awards in the past four years, no one should put anything past baseball’s two-way superstar. Ohtani became the first player to go 50-50 last season, and with 54 homers tied with Mantle (and seven other seasons) at 22nd on the single-season home run leaderboard. With 45 home runs headed into September, he has an outside shot at not only breaking that personal record, but getting a coveted 60-homer season. 15 home runs in a single month is a tall order for any player, but Ohtani did exactly that back in May when he crushed 15 long balls in 27 games. The Dodgers have two fewer games than that in September, but Ohtani will benefit from playing his home games at Dodger Stadium, which is far and away the most homer-friendly ballpark in the majors this year per Statcast.

Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge hit his 43rd home run of the season yesterday, and that makes it a tall order for him to reach 60 homers this season. With that being said, onlookers around the game should know better than to doubt the hulking slugger’s offensive abilities at this point, with MVP wins in two of the last three seasons and a completely absurd 202 wRC+ since the start of the 2022 season. Judge is also, of course, the only active player who’s already a member of the 60 home run club after bashing 62 long balls to take the AL home run record from Roger Maris during his 2022 AL MVP campaign. Judge finished just short with 58 home runs last year, but perhaps this year will be different. In order to reach 60 on the season, Judge will need to make a different kind of history: as noted by Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com last year, the record for home runs hit in September (and October, in seasons where it hosts regular season games) belongs jointly to Albert Belle and Babe Ruth. Judge would need to at least tie that duo’s 17 homers in the final month of the year in order to crack 60 long balls this year.

What do MLBTR readers think? Will the league enjoy a 60-homer campaign for the second time in four years this season? And if so, who is most likely to pull it off? Have your say in the polls below:

Dodgers Sign Andrew Heaney

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The Dodgers and left-hander Andrew Heaney have agreed to a deal, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The southpaw had recently been released by the Pirates. Heyman notes that Heaney signed in time to be eligible for the playoffs, so the deal must have been signed late last night. Heyman also says Heaney will initially report to Triple-A Oklahoma City, which suggests this is a minor league deal. Chris Cotillo of MassLive had previously reported that Heaney would be signing with a National League team.

It’s a reunion between the two parties, as Heaney spent the 2022 season with the Dodgers and enjoyed some of the best success of his career. He logged an excellent 3.10 ERA with L.A. and fanned a career-best 35.5% of his opponents against a tidy 6.1% walk rate (second-lowest of his career). Shoulder problems limited Heaney to just 14 starts and 72 2/3 innings that season, however.

His relatively small-sample dominance was still enough to earn him a two-year deal with an opt-out in Texas. Though he wasn’t nearly as dominant on a rate basis with the Rangers, Heaney did pile up 307 1/3 innings over 59 starts, pitching to a 4.22 ERA with a quality 23.2% strikeout rate and a better-than-average 7.6% walk rate. It was at least mildly surprising that he lingered on the free-agent market into February this past offseason, and his one-year, $5.25MM deal with the Bucs looked like a bargain early in the season.

Through mid-June, Heaney sported a 3.33 ERA with an 18.5% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate. The 34-year-old lefty’s average velocity had dipped slightly under 90 mph, and his strikeout rate declined accordingly, but Heaney continued to post solid results, even while ERA alternatives like SIERA (4.53) remained skeptical of those run-prevention numbers.

Regression indeed reared its ugly head. Heaney was trounced for seven runs in back-to-back starts in mid-June and hasn’t been able to right the ship. In 42 innings since mid-June (nine starts, three relief appearances), Heaney has been throttled for 43 earned runs in 42 innings. He’s continued to limit walks nicely (7.3%), but his strikeout rate has plummeted to 12% and he’s averaged A staggering 2.79 homers per nine innings pitched.

For now, Heaney will look to get back on track in Oklahoma City. The Dodgers are quite familiar with Heaney and have gotten strong results from him in the past, so they’ll hope to turn the clock back a few years. Heaney has experience both in the rotation and bullpen, so he can be depth for a variety of roles in his return to the Dodger organization.

Dodgers Notes: Stewart, Kopech, Hurt

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The Dodgers lost right-hander Brock Stewart to the 15-day injured list earlier this month due to shoulder inflammation, and manager Dave Roberts revealed to reporters (including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register) earlier today that Stewart actually suffered a setback not long after going on the shelf. Stewart initially received a cortisone injection and resumed playing catch last week, but felt continued discomfort when he started to ramp back up. That required another injection and a second shutdown from throwing, but Plunkett adds that Stewart has resumed playing catch at this point.

While it’s encouraging that Stewart is throwing once again, the news of a setback does raise questions over just how much Los Angeles can expect to get from the right-hander down the stretch and into the playoffs. Roberts suggested that the club is “hopeful” Stewart will be able to return at some point in September, but there’s no firm timeline for the righty at this point. He’s made just four appearances since serving as Los Angeles’s lone bullpen addition over the summer, and he pitched to a 4.91 ERA with a 3.94 FIP across those 3 2/3 innings of work prior to hitting the shelf.

With Tanner Scott and Blake Treinen serving as a strong one-two punch in the late innings, perhaps the Dodgers will be able to get on without Stewart providing much down the stretch. While L.A.’s relief corps has been slightly below average overall this year, they’ve actually been one of the best units in the sport since the All-Star break with a 3.18 ERA in their last 133 innings of work. It’s unclear if the Dodgers’ bullpen will be able to keep that up headed into the playoffs, but the good news is that they are getting reinforcements from the injured list in the form of Michael Kopech. Plunkett writes that the right-hander has finished his rehab assignment and has now joined the club ahead of his anticipated activation from the injured list this coming Tuesday.

After serving as one of the stars of the Dodgers bullpen down the stretch and into the postseason last year, Kopech has been limited to just eight appearances in 2025 by a handful of injuries. He’s expected to rejoin the roster in fairly short order, however, which is good news given that the seven innings of work he’s mustered this year have been nothing short of dominant. He’s not allowed a single run while striking out 27.6% of his opponents, though his 13.8% walk rate is high enough to raise some eyebrows. Regardless, it seems likely that Kopech will slide right back into his late-inning role with the Dodgers upon his return, joining Treinen and Scott at the back of the club’s bullpen ahead of the playoffs.

Kopech isn’t the only arm the Dodgers could get back in the near future. Plunkett also notes that southpaw Kyle Hurt, who’s been rehabbing from Tommy John surgery since July 2024, is finally nearing a return to the mound after throwing live batting practice to Tommy Edman, Justin Dean, and Dalton Rushing at Dodger Stadium today. The next step for Hurt, per Plunkett, is a two-inning appearance with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Tuesday. Hurt has just four big league appearances under his belt, and while he’s pitched to a 1.04 ERA in those 8 2/3 innings of work at the big league level it’s unclear if he’ll get back in time to make more MLB outings this year. Even if he doesn’t return to the majors, getting back on the mound this year at all should be valuable for Hurt headed into the offseason, when he’ll look ahead to competing for a roster spot during Spring Training.

Buddy Kennedy Elects Free Agency

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Infielder Buddy Kennedy elected free agency after being outrighted by the Dodgers, according to the MLB.com transaction log. He’d been designated for assignment earlier in the week when Kiké Hernández returned from injury.

Los Angeles claimed Kennedy off waivers from Toronto two weeks ago. That coincided with an IL placement for Max Muncy. He joined Tommy Edman, Hyeseong Kim and Hernández on the shelf. Kennedy provided an extra infielder alongside Miguel Rojas and rookie Alex Freeland between second and third base. He went 1-17 over seven games.

A former fifth-round pick of the Diamondbacks, Kennedy has played sporadically in parts of four big league seasons. He’s a .178/.271/.274 hitter in 181 career plate appearances. The 26-year-old has split time in Triple-A this year between the Philadelphia and Toronto systems. He has turned in a solid .268/.372/.408 showing in 77 combined games.

Kennedy will look for a minor league deal elsewhere. He’d need to be in another organization by September 1 to be eligible for a postseason roster. He’d be a long shot to get a playoff roster spot either way, of course, but it stands to reason a signing team would prefer that flexibility if they’re adding him as upper minors infield depth.

Dodgers Place Alex Vesia On Injured List

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The Dodgers placed Alex Vesia on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 23, with a right oblique strain. Blake Snell was activated from the paternity list in the corresponding move.

Vesia was one of the few Dodgers pitchers who had avoided the injured list until now. Only Anthony Banda has made more appearances than Vesia, who has gotten into 59 contests. He owns a 2.75 earned run average while striking out 33% of opponents across 52 1/3 frames. Vesia has collected four saves and recorded a career-best 21 holds.

It’s his second straight excellent season. The southpaw allowed only 1.76 earned runs per nine behind a matching 33% strikeout rate over 67 appearances last year. Between that performance and injuries to Kirby Yates and Tanner Scott, Vesia has been Dave Roberts’ most trusted reliever of late. He has pitched in the highest-leverage situations of any L.A. bullpen arm in the second half.

Scott and Yates recently returned to join Blake Treinen and Ben Casparius in the late innings. Vesia’s injury isn’t quite as significant for the Dodgers as it would’ve been a week or two ago. Still, it’s suboptimal to lose one of their best relievers for at least two weeks as they cling to a one-game lead on San Diego in the NL West.

Dodgers Designate Buddy Kennedy For Assignment

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The Dodgers designated infielder Buddy Kennedy for assignment. That makes room on the roster for Kiké Hernández, who is back from the 10-day injured list. Kennedy is out of options, so the Dodgers need to expose him to waivers to take him off the big league roster. The team’s 40-man roster count drops to 39.

Los Angeles claimed Kennedy off waivers from Toronto ten days ago. That coincided with an IL placement for Max Muncy. He joined Tommy Edman, Hyeseong Kim and Hernández on the shelf. Kennedy provided an extra infielder alongside Miguel Rojas and rookie Alex Freeland between second and third base. He went 1-17 over seven games.

A former fifth-round pick of the Diamondbacks, Kennedy has played sporadically in parts of four big league seasons. He’s a .178/.271/.274 hitter in 181 career plate appearances. The 26-year-old has split time in Triple-A this year between the Philadelphia and Toronto systems. He has turned in a solid .268/.372/.408 showing in 77 combined games.

The Dodgers will place Kennedy on outright waivers this week. He has cleared waivers a few times in his career and has the right to elect free agency if he goes unclaimed.

IL Activations: Chapman, Yates

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Here’s a look at some of the more notable names to be activated from the injured list today…

  • The Giants activated third baseman Matt Chapman from the injured list today after spending just a week on the shelf due to inflammation in his right hand. Versatile infielder Tyler Fitzgerald was optioned to Triple-A to make room for Chapman on the active roster. Chapman has appeared in just 96 games for San Francisco this year after missing time due to a sprained right hand back in June. He missed nearly a month due to that injury, and after being activated in early July he hit just .200/.290/.365 over 31 games before heading back to the IL due to his ailing hand. Chapman received a cortisone shot during this latest stint on the shelf, and both he and the Giants are surely hoping he’ll be able to hit more like his first half self (.243/.360/.452 in 65 games) going forward. As for Fitzgerald, he’s hit just .217/.278/.327 (73 wRC+) in 72 games this year thanks primarily to vanishing power relative to his 15 homers in 341 plate appearances last year.
  • Elsewhere in the NL West, the Dodgers activated veteran relief arm Kirby Yates from the injured list today. He takes the roster spot of southpaw Blake Snell, who is headed to the paternity list. Yates was shelved on August 1 due to low back pain and hasn’t appeared in a game since July 26. He was placed on the shelf after a difficult month of July where he surrendered a 6.00 ERA and 5.95 FIP across eight appearances, but the Dodgers are surely hoping that his month-long layoff has helped him get healthy for the final weeks of the season. Yates was arguably the best reliever in baseball with the Rangers last year as he posted a 1.17 ERA with a 2.50 FIP and picked up 33 saves in 61 appearances. This year his ERA has ballooned to 4.31, but a 32.8% strikeout rate still offers some reason for optimism that he’ll be able to turn things around now that he’s healthy. Yates joins a Dodgers bullpen that is presently relying on Blake Treinen and Ben Casparius in the late innings from the right side.

MLBTR Podcast: The Pohlads Aren’t Selling The Twins, Nathaniel Lowe, And Service Time Manipulation

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Are there some notable relievers who could be on waivers this month? Also, what happens to a player when he is on waivers? (44:55)
  • If I told you that the Dodgers signed Kyle Tucker, would you believe me? (52:40)
  • What’s the craziest out-of-nowhere team to make the playoffs and could a team do it this year? (56:35)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, Imagn Images

Nationals Claim Julian Fernandez

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The Nationals have claimed right-hander Julian Fernandez off waivers from the Dodgers, per a club announcement. The Nationals had a 40-man roster vacancy and optioned Fernandez to Triple-A Rochester, so no corresponding moves were necessary. Fernandez had been designated for assignment by the Dodgers last week to make room for Buddy Kennedy on their 40-man roster.

Fernandez, 29, made his big league debut with the Rockies back in 2021. He surrendered eight runs on nine hits (including two homers) and four walks while striking out four in 6 2/3 innings of work during that brief cup of coffee, however, and was quickly sent back to the minors. Fernandez spent 2022 at the minor league level with the Rockies before signing a minor league contract with the Blue Jays. Getting out of the Rockies organization didn’t help much, however, as he posted a 10.61 ERA in 9 1/3 innings of work for the club’s Buffalo affiliate.

After 2023, Fernandez departed affiliated ball and pitched for the Mexican League’s El Aguila de Veracruz. He pitched extremely well for Veracruz, with a 1.82 ERA in 34 2/3 innings of work. He struck out 32.1% of his opponents while walking just 9.0%, and that was enough to get the Dodgers’ attention this past offseason. He signed with L.A. on a minor league deal and began the season at Triple-A Oklahoma City. He pitched quite well for that affiliate, with a 3.05 ERA in 35 outings made all the more impressive by the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League. His 28.7% strikeout rate wasn’t quite as high as it was with Veracruz, but an 8.8% walk rate was actually even better than in the Mexican League.

That was enough to earn Fernandez a call-up to the majors last month, though it proved to be a brief one. He made a single, two-inning appearance with Los Angeles where he surrendered two runs on two hits (one homer) and a walk while striking out one. The Dodgers optioned Fernandez to the minors where he continued to find success at Triple-A, but he was eventually squeezed off the club’s roster and now finds himself headed to D.C. after being plucked off waivers by the Nationals.

With Washington, Fernandez figures to get a more extended big league opportunity. The Nats shipped out a number of big league relief arms ahead of the deadline (including closer Kyle Finnegan), and now Fernandez joins a very unproven bullpen mix where he should get plenty of opportunities to prove himself capable of holding down a big league job. If Fernandez can establish himself with the Nationals down the stretch, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the club hold onto him as they look to rebuild their bullpen for 2026 and beyond.

Poll: Can The Padres Hold Onto The NL West?

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It’s been a big week for baseball in California. After the Padres swept the Giants and the Angels swept the Dodgers, a new leader stood atop the NL West. The Padres had claimed sole possession of first, while the Dodgers slipped into second, one game back of San Diego. The playoff odds will tell you that the Dodgers remain the favorites, but they’re losing momentum. According to FanGraphs, the Dodgers had an 83.8% chance to win their division on Opening Day, while the Padres’ odds were a mere 3.8%. As recently as three weeks ago, L.A.’s odds reached 96.6%, while San Diego’s sat at 1.5%. Yet, the Padres have since won 14 of their last 18 games, while the Dodgers are 8-10 in the same span. Accordingly, FanGraphs now has L.A.’s odds just below two-thirds (63.8%) and San Diego’s just above one-third (36.1%). You can think of it this way: These odds mean the Padres are now about as likely to win the NL West as the White Sox (.364 winning percentage) are to win on any given day. It’s still not likely, but it’s more than possible. The White Sox, as bad as they are, have still won 44 games.

This big week of California baseball will continue into the weekend, as the Dodgers host the Padres for a three-game set at Chavez Ravine. With a series win, the Dodgers would secure the season series tiebreaker, which could prove critical in a close division race. A sweep would give them sole possession of first place once again. Conversely, for the Padres, a series win would keep their chances of winning the tiebreaker alive, while a sweep would give them a four-game cushion over their rivals. With a four-game lead, the Padres would control their own destiny for the 38 games remaining in the regular season; they only have three more against the Dodgers after this weekend.

The Dodgers are lined up to send Clayton Kershaw, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow to the mound. While the team continues to be plagued by injuries – most recently to Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Hyeseong Kim, Tommy Edman, and Brock Stewart – the starting rotation is much stronger with Kershaw, Snell, and Glasnow, as well as Emmet Sheehan and Shohei Ohtani, all healthy at the same time, alongside 2025 All-Star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. While the Dodgers have seen their playoff odds plummet over the past three weeks, their starting rotation leads the majors in strikeout rate and SIERA in that time. They also rank second in groundball rate and xERA and third in fWAR. All this to say, the Dodgers’ starters, should they stay healthy, will be a strength for this team down the stretch.

As for the Padres, their pitching plans for the weekend became more complicated when Michael King was scratched with knee inflammation, heading back to the IL after only one start. He had just returned from a thoracic nerve issue that kept him out for more than two months. San Diego’s rotation, now more than ever, has a lot of question marks behind Dylan Cease and Nick Pivetta. Yu Darvish has been inconsistent since he made his season debut in July; the former ace is almost 39, and he’s missed a lot of time with injuries in the past few years. Deadline acquisition Nestor Cortes has only made two starts since returning from a four-month IL stint, and he’s yet to make it out of the fifth inning. It’s hard to know what the Padres can expect from him as well. The recently recalled Randy Vásquez is a great backup plan for King – he’s a much more established sixth starter than most teams can boast – but his 5.98 xERA and 5.85 SIERA are huge red flags underlying his 3.93 ERA in 22 starts this season.

Thankfully for the Padres, they have the best bullpen in the league backing up their starting staff. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller bolstered a group that already included Robert Suarez, Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam, and Jeremiah Estrada with flamethrower Mason Miller in a blockbuster deadline trade. The Padres’ bullpen leads the majors with 37 wins, 40 saves, a 2.97 ERA, and 6.7 fWAR, and keep in mind, Miller has only been a part of it for a couple of weeks. As for the Dodgers, they might have a great bullpen if it weren’t missing Scott, Yates, Stewart, Evan Phillips, Michael Kopech, and Brusdar Graterol. It would be an exaggeration to call their arm barn a weakness, but one has to imagine that Dave Roberts is a lot less confident than Mike Shildt when it comes time to take his starter out of a game.

It should also be said that Miller and Cortes were far from Preller’s only trade deadline pickups. While Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers didn’t add much – Stewart and outfielder Alex Call were their biggest acquisitions – Preller may have won the deadline. At the very least, he won the deadline in the NL West, according to two-thirds of respondents in a recent MLBTR poll. At 5:01 PM CT on July 31, the newest Padres included Miller, Cortes, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Laureano, JP Sears, Freddy Fermin, and Will Wagner. The Dodgers were still three games up on the Padres at that point, but the Padres were a whole new team, with a deeper bullpen, a stronger rotation, a better catcher, and a more powerful offense against righties and lefties alike. Equally important was their decision to hold onto all of their key contributors who had come up in pre-deadline trade rumors, including Cease and Suarez.

The Dodgers have the better odds, according to both FanGraphs and PECOTA. They also have the better run differential, the higher FanGraphs WAR, and the reputation as the team to beat. After all, they’re the reigning World Series champions. They’ve won the NL West 11 times in the past 12 seasons. Meanwhile, the Padres haven’t won the West in almost 20 years. They haven’t won a pennant since the ’90s. They’ve never won it all. Yet, they’re playing like the better team right now, and they have the one-game lead to prove it. The question is: Can they hold on?

Will the Padres finally usurp the Dodgers in the NL West? Will the Dodgers’ dynasty live on another year? Or could a dark horse in the division pull off a remarkable comeback? Have your say in the poll below!

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