Dodgers Sign Justin Turner
DECEMBER 23, 6:04pm: The deal has been announced.
3:28pm: Turner’s deal appears to have hit the books, though it hasn’t yet been announced. He’ll receive a $4MM signing bonus, with annual salaries of $12MM (2017), $11MM (2018), $18MM (2019), and $19MM (2020), per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). There’s also a $1MM trade bonus provision, though Turner doesn’t pick up any other protection against being dealt, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (also via Twitter), who also specifies that the contract is indeed official.
DECEMBER 13: The Dodgers have finalized their new four-year deal with third baseman Justin Turner, reports Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM. The deal will guarantee Turner a total of $64MM, Bowden notes, as was reported yesterday when the two sides were first said to be nearing an agreement. Turner is a client of the Legacy Agency. The Dodgers have yet to officially announce the deal.
Turner, who just turned 32, was an unheralded minor league signing for the Dodgers three offseasons ago but broke out and reached star status in his three years with Los Angeles. Since being non-tendered by the Mets and signing in L.A., he’s slashed .296/.364/.492 with 50 homers in just shy of 1400 plate appearances. His walk rate was down a bit in 2016, but Turner offset the dip in on-base percentage by delivering the best power production of his life. Turner hit .273/.339/.493 while setting career-highs in home runs (27), doubles (34), triples (three), and isolated power (.218). Further strengthening his overall performance was his excellent defense at third base, where Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at seven run above average, while Ultimate Zone Rating was even more bullish at +14 runs.
[Related: Updated Los Angeles Dodgers Depth Chart]
A look at the open market shows a number of free-agent alternatives to Turner, and there were trade options to pursue as well (e.g. Todd Frazier), but none of the available alternatives can reliably be expected to produce in the manner that Turner did in his first three years with the Dodgers. Though president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman hasn’t made a habit out of beating the market and landing top-tier free agents since taking over atop the Dodgers’ front office, he’s now done just that on three instances this winter — each to retain one of his own players — by agreeing to new deals with Turner, Rich Hill and Kenley Jansen. That trio will cost the Dodgers about $192MM in total and add about $48MM of luxury tax considerations to the annual ledger.
Then again, the Dodgers are poised to see their commitments to Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier and Alex Guerrero come off the books next year and could bid farewell to Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-jin Ryu a year later. Those commitments total upward of $100MM in annual luxury tax penalization, so while the Dodgers are adding $48MM to their CBT total in the short-term, they’ll see more than twice that sum come off the books in the next 24 months. And, of course, Los Angeles could look to trade from its stable of veterans and jump the gun on removing some of those mostly onerous commitments from the ledger.
Of course, the Dodgers can’t be completely ruled out from pursuing further additions. They could still stand to see upgrades in the bullpen, at second base and possibly in the corner outfield. In particular, the 2016 iteration of the club was the worst in baseball at hitting left-handed pitching. The return of Turner should help with that flaw — though he did have some uncharacteristic struggles against southpaws last year — but further right-handed bats with some pop and/or strong on-base skills would make for reasonable pursuits. And, even with Jansen on board, the Dodgers are currently down a pair of setup men, as both Joe Blanton and J.P. Howell hit the free-agent market following the 2016 season.
Chris Camello of the Rebel Media Group reported Sunday that the two sides were nearing a four-year deal that could be worth about $65MM (Twitter link). ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted on Monday morning that there was growing confidence on the Dodgers’ behalf. Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter links) and FOX’s Ken Rosenthal chipped in additional financial details (Twitter link).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NL West Notes: Rockies, Rollins, Giants, De Leon
Some rumblings from around the NL West…
- The Rockies formally announced their 2017 coaching staff, including new hires Tony Diaz (first base coach), Duane Espy (hitting coach), Jeff Salazar (assistant hitting coach) and Ron Gideon (major league coach). This is Espy’s second stint as Colorado’s hitting coach, having previously worked in the job from 2003-06 under then-manager Clint Hurdle. Diaz, Salazar and Gideon are all getting their first experience working on a big league coaching staff, though they’re all longtime fixtures in the Rockies organization.
- In an insightful and wide-ranging interview with FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, Jimmy Rollins discusses such topics as his new minor league deal with the Giants, his abbreviated 2016 season and whether or not he considered retirement after parting ways with the White Sox last summer.
- The Giants are amassing several utility infielders, leading SB Nation’s Grant Brisbee to wonder if the team could be building depth for a potential trade. Rollins joins Kelby Tomlinson, Ramiro Pena, Ehire Adrianza, Juniel Querecuto and Orlando Calixte as candidates to fill infield roles in the majors or Triple-A. Beyond a trade, the Giants could simply be preparing to have an open battle for the utility job in Spring Training, or getting added depth given Joe Panik‘s injury history.
- Jose De Leon has been rumored to be a central piece of a potential Dodgers trade package for Brian Dozier, and while the Twins are justified in asking for more beyond just the young righty, Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron writes that Minnesota shouldn’t get cavalier about passing on a very talented young arm. Interestingly, Cameron suggests that if the Twins are concerned about De Leon’s long-term potential, they could still make the trade, give De Leon an extended audition in the big leagues in 2017 and then look to deal him next winter. In theory, De Leon would have even more trade value at this point as a controllable young pitcher with some MLB experience.
Latest On Dodgers’ Pursuit Of Brian Dozier
Talks between the Dodgers and Twins regarding second baseman Brian Dozier do not appear to be progressing, according to a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. While the sides have (as previously suggested) agreed upon righty Jose De Leon as the centerpiece of a possible swap, they seem to be “at a standstill … if not an impasse” regarding the remaining pieces, per the report.
Ultimately, the fit still looks like a good one — at least on paper — as neither side has an obvious alternative of equal or greater appeal. While Minnesota is said to be perfectly happy to hold onto Dozier for the time being, it surely would like to boost its rebuild without taking on further risk if possible. And no other rival organization matches the Dodgers’ evident need for Dozier and ability to part with young talent.
Heyman does add that the Giants have expressed at least some interest in Dozier. But San Francisco surely doesn’t represent as clean a fit, and arguably doesn’t have a tradeable asset of De Leon’s caliber. Whether the Giants or another team will ultimately emerge with more strident interest remains to be seen, but for the time being it appears more a question of whether the Dodgers will dangle enough to force the Twins’ hand.
From L.A.’s perspective, the club’s other reported targets — Ian Kinsler and Logan Forsythe — each seem more complicated than a deal for Dozier. Kinsler’s no-trade clause and extension demands present a huge barrier, while the Rays have little apparent reason to part with Forsythe (and, if they do, might target different pieces than would the Twins).
With both sides waiting for the other to blink, says Heyman, their respective positions are fairly well-defined. The Twins would settle for a package that does not include highly valued first base prospect Cody Bellinger, but instead focuses on other young arms. But the Dodgers at this point hold “an entirely different list” of pieces they’d add to the De Leon-led deal.
Interestingly, the Twins now have a new avenue of insight into the Dodgers’ farm that might conceivably have an impact on how things turn out. As Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press notes on Twitter, just-signed coach Jeff Pickler comes straight from a stint with the Dodgers’ front office, where he functioned as a special assistant for pro scouting and player development.
Six Teams Set To Pay Luxury Tax
Six major league organizations will pay a luxury tax for exceeding the $189MM salary level, as the Associated Press reports (via Sportsnet.ca). With a new collective bargaining agreement set to go into effect, we’ve never seen more teams subject to the tax.
It’s no surprise which organizations lead the way yet again, but they’ll be joined by a few more others than usual. Here’s the full list:
- Dodgers, $31.8MM tax bill
- Yankees, $27.4MM
- Red Sox, $4.5MM
- Tigers, $4MM
- Giants, $3.4MM
- Cubs, $2.96MM
That’s four years in a row for Los Angeles and a remarkable fourteen straight for the Bronx Bombers, the AP notes. Also of note, this is the first time the Cubs have ever exceeded the luxury tax ceiling.
While the line will move up to $195MM next year, under the new CBA, the penalties will begin to rise — especially for consecutive offenders. Dipping back under the limbo stick may prove tough for the Dodgers, whose future obligations draw down more the following year. But the Yankees could well finally be set to re-set their luxury tax status this time next year.
Dodgers Have “Shown Willingness” To Include Jose De Leon In Brian Dozier Trade
There have been plenty of rumors connecting the Dodgers to Twins second baseman Brian Dozier over the past several weeks, and Yahoo’s Jeff Passan reports today that the Dodgers have now shown a willingness to include top pitching prospect Jose De Leon in a theoretical Dozier swap (Twitter links). Aaron Gleeman of Baseball Prospectus tweeted yesterday that discussions between the two sides are seemingly focused on what would come to Minnesota alongside De Leon. FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweeted today that multiple teams are inquiring with the Twins on Dozier. Heyman further tweets that the Twins like first base/outfield prospect Cody Bellinger as well, though it’s tougher to see the Dodgers parting with him.
De Leon, 24, would make for a high-profile headliner in a Dozier trade. The right-hander currently ranks second among Dodgers farmhands and 33rd league-wide, per MLB.com’s rankings. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen rates him fourth in the Dodgers’ system, though that’s not so much a knock on De Leon as it is a vote of confidence in other L.A. prospects. De Leon entered the 2016 season ranked as a consensus top 30 prospect in the Majors and did little to dispel the notion that he merited such praise. An ankle injury and some shoulder inflammation limited De Leon’s time on the field, but when healthy he totaled 86 1/3 innings (16 starts) in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League and registered a pristine 2.61 ERA with 11.6 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He made his big league debut with the Dodgers as well, albeit with considerably less success; De Leon’s first four MLB starts resulted in a 6.35 ERA and a 15-to-7 K/BB ratio in a total of 17 innings. MLB.com praises him as a potential No. 2 starter, while Longenhagen feels he’s more of a mid-rotation arm with the potential for plus fastball command and a plus changeup.
In Dozier, the Dodgers would be acquiring a much-needed right-handed bat that can feast on left-handed pitching. Los Angeles was baseball’s worst team against lefties in 2016, but Dozier mashed southpaws at a .282/.352/.613 clip. Dozier’s 42 home runs last year thrust him into the national spotlight, but he’s quietly been an excellent player for the Twins in each of the past four seasons. He doesn’t hit for a high average, but Dozier draws enough walks to post solid OBP marks and has batted a collective .248/.326/.456 since 2013. His power output has increased in each of his Major League seasons, and he rates as a solid defensive second baseman that also contributes value through baserunning. Dozier has averaged 28 homers and 16 steals per season over the past four years and is controlled through the 2018 campaign at an affordable total of $15MM, giving him plenty of value from a financial standpoint as well.
New Twins execs Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have seemingly been open to listening on virtually any player in trade talks, but they’ve also indicated that they’re in no rush to move Dozier and would feel plenty comfortable heading into the 2017 season with him entrenched at second base. Given Dozier’s contract status, Minnesota could certainly extract considerable value for his services this summer or even next winter as well.
Yimi Garcia Underwent Tommy John Surgery Recently
Dodgers righty Yimi Garcia required Tommy John surgery in late October, according to a team announcement (via MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick, on Twitter). He had previously been shut down with a significant injury to his biceps, and also underwent knee surgery in September.
Garcia, 26, has just over two years of service time to his ledger at present, so he won’t be eligible for arbitration until next fall. But he’s highly unlikely to pitch before that time, meaning the Dodgers will likely need to make a decision on whether to tender him a contract for 2018 before he has returned to full competitive action.
The 2016 season was basically a total loss for Garcia, who only made nine major league appearances before he was shut down. But he was quite good a season prior, throwing 56 2/3 frames of 3.34 ERA ball in his first full MLB campaign. Even more impressively, Garcia averaged 10.8 K/9 against just 1.6 BB/9 in that span, making good on the promise he had shown during a brief debut in 2014.
When operating at full capacity in 2015, Garcia delivered an average fastball of over 93 mph, with a cutter and slider to go with it. There’s certainly enough upside in his remaining years of control to imagine the Dodgers taking the gamble on a tender — especially since arbitration salaries aren’t guaranteed until late in camp. Of course, the team will have plenty of time to weigh that decision and evaluate Garcia’s progress in the meantime.
Before the start of the 2016 season, MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum undertook a statistical analysis of the likelihood of Tommy John surgery. Garcia checked in with a slightly elevated expectation of requiring a UCL replacement, based upon the factors that Woodrum identified as having some limited statistical significance.
NL West Notes: Blackmon, Desmond, Hedges, Dodgers
Rockies GM Jeff Bridich has told center fielder Charlie Blackmon to take any trade rumors involving his name with a “huge grain of salt,” he told reporters, including MLB.com’s Thomas Harding, yesterday. “As the situation was with [Carlos Gonzalez] over the past few years, there are teams that are doing their jobs and doing their due diligence and calling on our guys,” Bridich explained. “But we have never come out and said, ‘We want or need to trade Charlie Blackmon.’ I felt like he needed to hear it from me.” The addition of Ian Desmond to the Rockies’ roster only increased speculation that Bridich would look to move one of his left-handed-hitting outfielders, but the Rockies maintain that Desmond will be utilized at first base and no outfield move is on the horizon.
Here’s more on the Rox and more from the NL West…
- At his introductory press conference with the Rockies, Desmond spoke with confidence about his ability to learn first base despite never having played there in the past, as Harding writes in a separate piece. Desmond, of course, made a pretty smooth transition from shortstop to the outfield last year, and the athleticism that allowed him to do so was a big factor in the Rockies signing him, Bridich explained. “A couple of years ago, we started talking about versatility and athleticism becoming a priority for this organization, along with getting veterans of character,” the GM said. “[Desmond] represents all of that, and that is the exciting thing.” Bridich added that there’s been “way too much” talking and planning that has gone into the decision to deploy Desmond at first base for the Rockies change course. Bridich added that his focus will now shift to improving the team’s bullpen, Harding notes.
- Austin Hedges is “obviously … the clear frontrunner” to serve as the Padres‘ primary catcher in 2017, manager Andy Green tells Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The 24-year-old Hedges was rushed to the Majors out of necessity two years ago and struggled in his brief time with San Diego, but he laid waste to Triple-A pitching last season and has always had a reputation for tremendous glovework among scouts. “I think what he needs to do is take command of the team from a leadership perspective, and I know that’s very difficult when you’re short on time served in the major leagues,” said Green. “But when you’re in the catching position, the shortstop position, those are positions of authority on the baseball field where you’ve got to come in and help pitchers … and not worry about how much time you have on a major league field right now.” As Lin notes, Christian Bethancourt is the presumptive backup to Hedges, but the Friars still have plenty uncertainty permeating their pitching staff, with as many as three open rotation spots yet to be filled.
- Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times examines the upcoming luxury tax penalties that the Dodgers will incur following the re-signing of Rich Hill, Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner for a combined $192MM. As Shaikin points out, the new luxury tax penalties laid out in the collective bargaining agreement don’t kick in until next offseason, at which point the Dodgers will see Carl Crawford, Alex Guerrero and Andre Ethier come off the books. Those savings, plus the fact that the first wave of luxury tax increases will be gradually phased into effect, allowed Los Angeles to spend heavily without much fear of significant luxury tax penalization in the next calendar year. However, the Dodgers still are aiming to significantly decrease their payroll by the time the 2018 season concludes in order to avoid harsher draft-pick penalties that are tied to the luxury tax threshold. Shaikin’s piece is well worth a look for those wondering about some of the specifics surrounding the Dodgers’ spending habits.
- ESPN’s Keith Law opines (ESPN Insider subscription required and highly recommended) that the Dodgers look to have gotten a tremendous bargain on their four-year, $64MM deal for Justin Turner, though he’s less bullish on the notion of giving a five-year deal to any reliever — even one as dominant as Kenley Jansen. Law notes that he had Turner pegged for a $20MM annual value over the life of his free-agent contract this winter given the elite level of play he’s turned in since signing with L.A., and the $64MM figure offers plenty of opportunity for surplus value. As for Jansen, Law writes that he’s the only reliever for whom he’d have considered a four-year deal this winter, but the attrition rate of relievers simply makes it unlikely that Los Angeles will receive more than three top-notch years from the deal. Then again, if Jansen performs at an elite level — or anything close to it — for another three seasons, he could opt out of the deal and potentially land elsewhere for his decline phase.
Trade/Free Agent Rumors: Dozier, Dodgers, Carter, Wilson, Ross
The Dodgers wrapped up their five-year agreement with Kenley Jansen yesterday and are nearing the completion of a four-year deal with Justin Turner — both ESPN’s Jim Bowden and FanRag’s Jon Heyman have reported today that just small details remain to be worked out — but Doug Padilla of ESPN.com reports that the impending re-signing of Turner doesn’t close the door on a trade for Minnesota’s Brian Dozier. Per Padilla, a trade package for the Twins‘ slugging second baseman might have to center around right-hander Jose De Leon or a similar asset, but the Dodgers are reluctant to part with De Leon. A reunion with 2016 second baseman Chase Utley hasn’t been entirely ruled out either, according to Padilla. Utley delivered a solid season on a one-year deal with the Dodgers last year, hitting .252/.319/.396 with 14 homers, but Utley logged a dismal .154/.206/.264 slash in 97 plate appearances against lefties. The Dodgers’ greatest weakness in 2016 may have been their struggles against southpaws — an area where Dozier could provide a significant boost (.282/.353/.613 in 2016, .270/.343/.512 in his career).
A few more notes regarding the offseason trade and free-agent markets…
- FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that with Jansen back in the fold, the Dodgers aren’t planning on offering more than a one-year deal to any free agent relievers. That, he notes, could take them out of the mix for Greg Holland in the event that Holland is still eyeing multi-year deals. Of course, it should be noted that it’s difficult to definitively rule the Dodgers out of making a bargain two-year play later in the offseason. If a pitcher that is widely believed to sign a lucrative two- or three-year pact at present sees his market crumble somewhat and loers his asking price on a two-year pact a few months from now, one can imagine the Dodgers jumping in and making a value play.
- Both the Rangers and Orioles have expressed some level of interest in free-agent slugger Chris Carter, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (on Twitter). Neither team is especially close to a deal with Carter, however, he cautions. The seriousness of the interest from Texas and Baltimore isn’t clear from Morosi’s brief report, though it’s easy to see how Carter could fit into the plans of either team. The Rangers abruptly lost Prince Fielder this past season when neck issues forced him to retire, while first baseman Mitch Moreland hit free agency and agreed to a deal with the Red Sox. The Orioles, meanwhile, could lose both Mark Trumbo and Pedro Alvarez to free agency, though they’re said to be in talks about retaining Trumbo. There’s certainly an argument that Carter is a similar and more cost-effective alternative to Trumbo, especially if the O’s are planning to use either at DH moving forward. Carter was non-tendered by Milwaukee last month on the heels of a .222/.321/.499 batting line and an NL-best 41 homers (as well as an NL-worst 206 strikeouts).
- Morosi also tweets that the Astros have had some talks with the Tigers regarding left-handed reliever Justin Wilson. Houston joins the Cubs as the most recent team to be linked to Wilson, who pitched to a 4.14 ERA in his first season with Detroit but also recorded career-bests in K/9, BB/9 and ground-ball rate. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegs him for a reasonable $2.7MM next year, and Wilson will be controllable through the 2018 season via the arbitration process.
- Speaking of the Cubs, they’re maintaining some interest in right-hander Tyson Ross, reports Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670 The Score. Ross was non-tendered by the Padres after undergoing surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome in October, and while he could well be ready to pitch early in the 2017 campaign, the Padres clearly weren’t comfortable with a projected salary between $9-10MM. Levine spoke to one NL exec who expected Ross to receive an incentive-laden contract that allows Ross to earn nearly as much as he otherwise would have through arbitration with the Padres. The Cubs, according to Levine, have had interest in Ross since the summer of 2015, when they tried to broker a deal that would’ve sent Starlin Castro to the Padres in return. According to Levine, the Rangers are also interested in swinging a deal with Ross now that he’s a free agent, though it’s easy to imagine a wide number of teams showing interest in a short-term commitment to a player with Ross’ upside. The 29-year-old turned in a 3.07 ERA with 9.2 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 and a strong ground-ball rate in 516 2/3 innings with the Padres from 2013-15.
Dodgers, Justin Turner Progressing Toward Four-Year Deal
3:10pm: FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the deal will be for $64MM when it is ultimately completed.
12:06pm: Sherman reports that the two sides have been discussing a contract in the vicinity of $64MM in total, though there could be a higher guarantee and some deferrals as well (Twitter links). The Rebel Media’s Chris Camello first tweeted yesterday that the two sides were getting close to a deal in the four-year, $65MM range.
10:41am: Heyman tweets that the Dodgers currently have an offer on the table to Turner and are awaiting his decision. ESPN’s Jim Bowden tweets that both the Dodgers and Turner’s representatives at the Legacy Agency say there’s no agreement just yet, though both are hopeful.
10:24am: The Dodgers and Turner are progressing toward an agreement, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). If an agreement is reached, it’ll “likely” be for four years, tweets FanRag’s Jon Heyman.
7:35am: The Dodgers are becoming more confident that they can re-sign third baseman Justin Turner, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter links). The two sides have been in talks on a four-year contract recently, Olney adds.
Turner, who turned 32 three weeks ago, has been one of the Dodgers’ top offseason priorities. He’s fresh off a brilliant season that saw him bat .275/.339/.493 with 27 homers, 34 doubles and outstanding defense at the hot corner (+7 DRS, +14 UZR). That marked the third consecutive season of exceptional offensive production from Turner, who signed a minor league contract with Los Angeles in February 2014 after being non-tendered by the Mets and went on to break out in Chavez Ravine. In 386 games and 1383 plate appearances as a member of the Dodgers, Turner has slashed .296/.364/.492.
Bringing back the right-handed-hitting Turner would be a boost to a Dodgers team that ranked last in the Majors against left-handed pitching in 2016 in terms of on-base percentage, slugging percentage and wRC+. However, it should also be noted that Turner’s own uncharacteristic struggles against southpaws last year contributed heavily to L.A.’s woes against in that department. Turner hit .282/.359/.465 against left-handers in his first two seasons with the Dodgers but slumped to a .209/.303/.337 mark last year. His strikeout and walk rates against lefties remained encouraging, although he sported just a .230 average on balls in play against lefties, which obviously proved to be a significant detriment.
Jason Martinez of Roster Resource/MLBTR projects the Dodgers for a $204MM Opening Day payroll as it is, even without re-signing Turner, so adding him back into the mix would presumably push the team’s 2017 payroll north of $220MM (though the deal could of course be backloaded to some extent). That number would continue to rise if the team were to re-sign Kenley Jansen, another top target, or add an experienced arm to replace their closer in the event that Jansen signs elsewhere. The Dodgers will, at least, be free of their obligations to both Carl Crawford and Alex Guerrero next winter, which will result in about $28MM coming off their payroll. They’ll also be able to buy out Andre Ethier‘s $17.5MM mutual option. The following offseason will see Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-jin Ryu come off the books, creating plenty of opportunity for the Dodgers to shed some significant payroll and luxury tax considerations in the next two years.
Dodgers Close To Deal With Kenley Jansen
The Dodgers are close to a deal to bring back closer Kenley Jansen, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). It would seem that Monday has the makings of a big day for the Dodgers and their fans, as multiple reports today have indicated that the Dodgers are also progressing toward a four-year deal to re-sign Justin Turner. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that Jansen’s deal is expected to be a five-year pact.
Los Angeles entered the offseason with a number of free agents coming off the books, but the three priorities for the team were long said to be Jansen, Turner and Rich Hill. If both the Turner and Jansen deals are completed, the Dodgers will have succeeded in bringing back their three top free agents, though, clearly there’ll still be some work to be done over the remainder of the winter. Notably, the club could look for upgrades at second base, in the corner outfield and in the bullpen (even after bringing back Jansen).
The 29-year-old Jansen pitched to a scintillating 1.83 ERA with 13.6 K/9, 1.4 BB/9 and a 30 percent ground-ball rate in 68 2/3 innings with the Dodgers last season. That performance led his first All-Star selection, although the very fact that it was just the first of his career is somewhat remarkable. Jansen has been one of baseball’s very best relievers since the moment he debuted as a 22-year-old in 2010, logging a career 2.20 ERA with 13.9 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 in 408 2/3 regular-season innings. He ranks fourth in strikeout percentage and third in total strikeouts among qualified relievers in that time, and only six relievers have mustered a better earned run average in that time frame.
In addition to the Dodgers, Jansen drew interest from the Yankees, Nationals and Marlins this winter, though the Yankees’ bid to land him likely ended when they inked Aroldis Chapman to a five-year, $86MM contract. While Miami’s emergence as a suitor for Jansen came as a surprise, their efforts to land a top closer appear to be legitimate; they reportedly offered Chapman $87MM over a five-year term, and Marlins skipper Don Mattingly has been said to be personally recruiting Jansen. Signing in Miami would’ve reunited Jansen with not only Mattingly but also former teammates Dee Gordon and A.J. Ellis (who agreed to a deal with Miami last week), but it appears that Jansen’s sights are set on remaining in Dodger blue.
It’ll be interesting to see if Jansen is able to top Chapman’s overall contract, which currently stands as the all-time record contract issued to a reliever. If he’s able to do so, he’ll join Chapman and Mark Melancon as the third reliever this year to set a new benchmark for largest contract ever, although there are other considerations at play as well. Notably, Chapman received an opt-out clause after the third year of his contract, and one would expect that Chapman’s representatives at Wasserman sought the same type of provision, which has become increasingly common throughout baseball contracts.