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Trade Notes: Sellers, Dodgers, Papelbon, Jays, Twins

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Dave Cameron of Fangraphs opines that we may be headed for the “most extreme sellers’ market in years” given the unprecedented parity in the American League and a lack of sellers in the National League. Only 8.5 games separate the best team in the AL and the second-worst, Cameron notes, and the worst club (the Athletics) can be reasonably expected to turn things around if one believes in the estimation of a context-neutral system like BaseRuns (of course, Oakland’s hole may be too deep to escape even if their luck turns). In the NL, only the Phillies and Brewers are clear sellers, and even potential sellers like the Diamondbacks and Marlins are loaded with young, controllable players as opposed to appealing veteran assets. The Reds and Rockies may eventually sell also, but they’re close enough to .500 at this time that they may wait until late in trade season to market their players. Cameron adds that if the Rox “really won’t trade Tulowitzki in this market, where there might not be another significant power hitter available, then they should just never trade him.” I’m inclined to agree that it’s difficult to imagine a better market for Colorado to move Tulowitzki, particularly if he continues a torrid hot streak that is silencing any previous concerns about his health.

A few more trade-related notes as we begin to get the time of year when teams will shift their focus to improving the 25-man roster…

  • It’s no secret that the Dodgers could use a quality starter, and Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com writes that the club is looking at the very top of the market. The top Dodgers target is Nationals righty Jordan Zimmermann. Other preferred names include Johnny Cueto of the Reds and David Price of the Tigers. Of course, it’s far from clear what kind of deal would interest contenders like Washington and Detroit, and Saxon notes that Los Angeles has no reason to believe at this point that Zimmermann could be had via trade. While Cueto is obviously expected to be available, it’s hard to imagine the other two arms being dealt barring some significant change (e.g., loss of a major player to injury or a rather dramatic slide in the standings) or serious creativity in structuring a deal.
  • Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon has seen his name in the news today, and ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark adds to the reports indicating that Philadelphia is increasingly interested in moving the veteran. Rivals think that the Phils may be looking to deal Papelbon sooner rather than later in order to get out ahead of other clubs that might sell off late-inning arms — namely, the Athletics (Tyler Clippard) and Reds (Aroldis Chapman).
  • It remains to be seen what kind of return the Phillies can achieve on Papelbon, but the club’s apparent willingness to keep some of the salary obligations will obviously help on the prospect side of the equation. Corey Seidman of CSNPhilly.com attempts to gauge Papelbon’s value by looking at recent deals involving late-inning arms, indicating that the club might be interested in bolstering its organization depth with multiple prospects if it can’t pry loose a single player that it really likes.
  • The Blue Jays undeniably have a need at the back of the pen, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca, but the club does not seem any closer to reaching agreement on Papelbon. While the teams have indeed chatted recently, Davidi says that Philly is still not willing to take on enough of Papelbon’s salary to make an agreement palatable. And Toronto is not looking to part with its better minor league talent, perhaps buoyed by the fact that there is not a ton of demand for Papelbon. The Jays are definitely constrained by financial limitations, says Davidi, who sums it up thusly: “in all likelihood they have one, maybe two moves in them, so they can ill-afford a costly roll of the dice.”
  • Twins GM Terry Ryan says that the failure of last year’s mid-season Kendrys Morales  signing will not cause the team to pause in pursuing an upgrade this summer, as Derek Wetmore of 1500ESPN.com writes. “I would do it again if I had an opportunity,” Ryan said of the Morales move. “It just didn’t work.” He went on to say that the club is looking to see what it can do to take advantage of its nice start: “We’re doing pretty good and we certainly have to have our eyes open,” Ryan said. “We’re in contention, there’s no secret here. We have an opportunity to do some things and hopefully we’ll be able to.”

Erik Bedard To Retire

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Dodgers lefty Erik Bedard has decided to retire, according to a tweet from the club’s High-A affiliate Rancho Cucamonga. He has seen action in parts of eleven big league seasons.

Bedard, 36, was only just returning to action after suffering a strained muscle in his back. He had thrown 14 1/3 innings at the High-A level on the season, striking out seven and walking one while allowing eight earned runs.

The southpaw is well removed from his heyday, but was once one of the more effective starters in the game. Pitching for the Orioles, he came in fifth in the Cy Young voting back in 2007, when he threw 182 innings of 3.16 ERA ball with a league-leading 10.9 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9.

That big campaign led the Mariners’ to deal for him, forking over a prospect package fronted by Adam Jones and Chris Tillman to add him. Though Bedard continued to put up good results, shoulder issues bit hard and limited him to 255 1/3 frames over his three years in Seattle (plus another 38 after he was dealt to the Red Sox in the middle of 2011).

Bedard has bounced around since, putting up solid strikeout numbers but failing to hold down the free passes. All told, Bedard has racked up just over 1,300 big league innings of 3.99 ERA pitching while averaging 8.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, and a 41.9% groundball rate.

Draft Notes: Matuella, Rodgers, Harris, Cameron

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Scouts do much more than tally stats, of course, but they are not immune from the allure of racking up their own numbers. As MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick writes, Marty Lamb of the Dodgers received credit as the lead scout on three of the team’s top five choices, including first-rounder Walker Buehler, a fairly rare achievement. “Part of it is luck,” explains the veteran scout. “They’ve got to fall to the right places, and we’ve got to like them. … It’s fun, but I’m sure some of my buddies [fellow scouts] aren’t too happy with me right now, but it’s part of the game.”

Here’s more from out west:

  • Rangers scouting director Kip Fagg, likewise, was pleased with how things turned out Monday, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes. “I can’t think of a better day that I’ve had in my 24 years of scouting with the Texas Rangers,” he said. “The first four guys we drafted, we had them all in our top 20 on our board. That’s never happened in my career. That made it special.” Texas took righty Dillon Tate with its top pick and also went on to secure the rights to Duke starter Michael Matuella, a high-upside talent who has injury and signability questions. Matuella says he is “very confident” in reaching a deal, with Fagg echoed that sentiment.
  • High school shortstop Brendan Rodgers, the Rockies’ top selection at third overall, said Monday that he agreed on bonus terms with the club before the draft, as Nick Groke of the Denver Post reported. Ink has not yet been put to paper, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets, but it appears that Rodgers will formally reach a deal in fairly short order.
  • Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are nearing agreement with first-rounder Jon Harris, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. The righty is expected to receive a bonus in line with the slot value of $1,944,800, sources tell Davidi. Toronto has expressed real excitement at having another chance at Harris, who the team failed to sign out of high school after the 2012 draft.
  • Astros second-round choice Daz Cameron, a highly-regarded high school outfielder, is asking “less than” the $5MM he was rumored to be seeking, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports. The consensus is that Cameron fell to Houston because it has the overall spending capacity to sign him, but perhaps the team will not need to go quite as high as had been expected to get a deal done. Daz’s father — long-time big leaguer Mike Cameron — offers plenty of interesting thoughts on his son’s draft experience and the useful “business management” lesson he picked up along the way. It’s an interesting piece and well worth a read.

Draft Links: Best Remaining, Matuella, Day One Analysis

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Last night, we watched as the first two rounds of this year’s Rule 4 draft hit the books. We tracked the first 42 picks (here and here), but of course another 33 choices were made after that. You can find the complete results of the first day at MLB.com.

Here are some links to check out as we look back at yesterday and look forward to the rest of the draft:

  • Baseball America lists the best players still available, which includes names like high school righties Donny Everett and Dakota Chalmers as well as former Astros pick Jacob Nix.
  • The most intriguing player still on the board, perhaps, is Duke starter Michael Matuella, who was at one point regarded as a possible 1-1 selection but underwent Tommy John surgery late in the season and has dealt with other injury issues. It has to be considered at least possible at this point that he’ll return to college for his senior year; indeed, he acknowledged as much recently, as Laura Keeley of the Charlotte Observer reported. “That’s definitely an option I’m evaluating,” said Matuella. “I’m hoping a good opportunity presents itself. I really haven’t come up with a certain [draft round] cutoff. I’ll evaluate it case by case and see if there’s a good opportunity for me.” Of course, it would not be surprising to see a team with a large bonus pool take a shot on him today.
  • Diamondbacks scouting director Deric Ladnier says that the club has been locked in on first overall pick Dansby Swanson for some time, as Teddy Cahill of Baseball America writes in breaking down the first day of the draft. “This is the player we wanted,” said Ladnier. “We wanted him for a while.”
  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow tells MLB Network Radio (audio link) that Houston saw second overall pick Alex Bregman (LSU) as a “no-brainer” of a selection, noting that the club believes Bregman is plenty capable of sticking at short. The team’s top baseball man noted that he’s not worried about the possibility of a future infield logjam. “The good thing about having guys at the premium positions is … their fall-back is to play another position,” said Luhnow.
  • It goes without saying, really, that it’s too early to evaluate the results of day one, but Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com compares the Astros’ haul to their 2012 draft in terms of the volume of premium talent. Houston made plenty of noise yesterday — as might have been expected given its league-high bonus pool — in adding highly-regarded high school outfielders Kyle Tucker and Daz Cameron to go with Bregman. Heyman also notes that the Dodgers seemingly achieved good value in nabbing righties Walker Buehler and Kyle Funkhouser with the 24th and 35th selections.
  • Jim Callis of MLB.com pegs the Blue Jays’ selection of Missouri State righty Jon Harris (29th overall) and the Rockies’ choice of high school hurler Mike Nikorak (at 27) as two of the best three picks, joining Cameron. The biggest suprise, per Callis, was the Marlins’ decision to grab young first baseman Josh Naylor in the 12th slot.
  • As a reminder, MLBTR’s draft primer contains links to many essential draft materials.

NL Notes: Holliday, Plawecki, Montero, Mets

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Here’s the latest out of the National League:

  • Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday left last night’s game with what looked to be a fairly significant quadriceps strain, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. The severity of the injury is not yet known, but we can expect more information today. While the team does have options in left — Randal Grichuk, Peter Bourjos, and Jon Jay are all available on the MLB roster, and top prospect Stephen Piscotty is waiting at Triple-A — any lengthy loss would be a huge blow. Holliday, 35, has put up a typically strong (although atypically low-power) .303/.417/.421 batting line thus far. And St. Louis is already dealing with the loss of first baseman Matt Adams to a severe quad injury, leaving some questions in the middle of the order.
  • The Mets are in an interesting spot as the trade deadline approaches, with some useful trade chips that are also somewhat redundant assets. Among the young, big league level players who the team could conceivably deal, catcher Kevin Plawecki is not really an option to be moved, reports Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Though he’ll likely be replaced soon by Travis d’Arnaud, the Mets don’t want to sacrifice depth behind the plate. But righty Rafael Montero could well be moved, says Puma, though he’ll need to get over his shoulder issues and back on track to carry the kind of value the team would hope.
  • While the Mets continue to receive strong results from their rotation, the club’s handling of the staff has been problematic, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Top lefty prospect Steven Matz is being held down until Super Two avoidance can be assured, says Sherman, while the club struggles to figure out what to do with Jon Niese and Dillon Gee.
  • Sherman adds that the club “may have been able” to get Juan Uribe from the Dodgers in exchange for Gee, but passed on the opportunity because the team did not yet appreciate the severity of David Wright’s back problems. The club is now struggling to fill in at the hot corner, particularly with Daniel Murphy joining Wright on the DL.

Final Draft Notes: D’Backs, Aiken, Astros

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With the final countdown on, here are a few last-minute draft rumors making the rounds. There remains little clarity — except, perhaps, at the very top.

  • Late updates to mock drafts show a clear consensus that the Diamondbacks will take Vandy shortstop Dansby Swanson first overall. Check them out if you’re interested in final prognostications: MLB.com, Baseball America, Fangraphs. It is still possible that Arizona is holding negotiations with a few other players of interest, as multiple reports suggest, to keep open the possibility of freeing additional cash for later selections.
  • Last year’s first overall choice, Brady Aiken, has obviously seen a major value drop but still has ample talent. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets that Aiken has interest from the Cubs, who are unlikely to reach for him with their first pick, as well as the Rays (who choose 13th overall) and Dodgers (picking 24th).
  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow says that his team intends to spend all of its $17MM+ draft pool money, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports on Twitter. Houston has the most cash to spend in large part due to its failure to sign Aiken, of course, which left the club with both the second and fifth overall selections.
  • The time for speculation is over now anyway, of course … the draft is about to start!

Braves Sign Aardsma To Minor League Deal

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The Braves have signed right-handed reliever David Aardsma to a minor league deal, tweets Mark Bowman of MLB.com. He opted out of his contract with the Dodgers on June 1. With Los Angeles’ Triple-A affiliate, Aardsma posted a 2.41 ERA with 11.09 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9 in 18 and two-thirds innings. He will report to Triple-A Gwinnett.

Aardsma last appeared in the majors with the Mets in 2013. Over his career, he has a 4.23 ERA with 8.96 K/9 and 4.97 BB/9. His best seasons came with the Mariners in 2009 through 2010 when he collected 69 saves in 121 innings. A hip injury and Tommy John surgery caused him to miss most of the 2011 and 2012 seasons.

The Braves bullpen is the worst in the majors by conventional measures. Adding Aardsma is a savvy, low risk move for the club. Atlanta has used 16 relievers, and they have contributed a league worst 5.03 ERA. Advanced metrics like SIERA and xFIP rate the club between the second and fifth worst bullpen.

Jason Grilli and Jim Johnson have acquitted themselves nicely in the late innings, but the front end of the bullpen remains in disarray. Given the state of affairs in Atlanta, Aardsma should have an opportunity to rejoin the majors.

Minor Moves: Santos, Solano, Sands, Hester

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Here are today’s minor moves from around the game.

  • Reliever Sergio Santos has cleared waivers and will elect free agency, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times tweets. The Dodgers designated Santos for late last month after the former White Sox closer struck out 15 batters and walked seven while allowing seven runs in 13 1/3 innings this season.
  • The Marlins have announced that they’ve outrighted catcher Jhonatan Solano to Triple-A New Orleans. The designated him for assignment yesterday. The 29-year-old has a career .184/.222/.301 line in 108 career plate appearances with the Nationals and Marlins, hitting a somewhat better .241/.286/.346 in about two seasons’ worth of plate appearances at the Triple-A level.
  • The Indians have announced that outfielder Jerry Sands has cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Columbus. Last week, the Indians designated Sands for assignment for the second time this season. The 27-year-old Sands has hit 9-for-27 with a home run and two doubles for the Indians this year. Perhaps more representative is his .257/.385/.473 at Triple-A, a line consistent with the strong minor-league performances he’s posted throughout much of his career.
  • The Phillies have released catcher John Hester, MLBTR’s Steve Adams tweets, noting that Hester had surgery on his meniscus this spring but is now healthy. The 31-year-old has played in ten minor-league games this season. He spent 2014 with Triple-A Salt Lake in the Angels organization, batting .261/.338/.411. He has a career .216/.294/.351 line in 232 big-league plate appearances spread over four seasons with the Diamondbacks and Angels.

Amateur Notes: Gourriel Brothers, Martinez, Draft

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We’ve had a lot of news of players leaving Cuba of late, but two of the country’s most prominent names — brothers Yulieski and Lourdes Gourriel, rated first and fourth among the island’s players as big league prospects — have thus far not made any public moves towards the big leagues. As Ben Badler of Baseball America explains, however, both players are now set to miss the Cuban national team’s upcoming appearance in the Pan American Games. The younger of the two, Lourdes, was surprisingly left off the original roster, while Yulieski (the country’s biggest star) is said to have taken himself out of the tournament — after both recently seemed to have passed on chances to earn significant money playing in Japan. For now, it’s entirely unclear whether there is any movement afoot for the brothers to come stateside, but Badler notes that MLB clubs are watching with keen interest.

Here are some more amateur notes as we enter the final weekend before the draft:

  • As he prepares to join the professional ranks after being declared a free agent, Cuban outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez has moved into the top spot on MLB.com’s international prospect list, as MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez writes. It’s unclear as yet whether Martinez will sign in this period or the new one beginning July 2, but he’ll have to put pen to paper in short order if he’s to head to the Yankees or Angels. Those two clubs will be unable to spend more than $300K after this July 2 class closes, and they are among the teams who Sanchez lists with interest. The Cubs, Blue Jays, Nationals, Rockies, Tigers, Dodgers, and Giants have also reached out to Martinez’s camp, per the report. “I’m working hard to get to my goal to play in the Major Leagues, ” says the 20-year-old. “That’s what I have always wanted to do.”
  • The makeup of the amateur draft has changed over time, as Ben Lindbergh of Grantland explains. Mocking the draft is a more-or-less hopeless endeavor, says Lindbergh, but some trends have emerged. For one thing, the number of pitchers has continued to rise rather significantly. While this year’s class lacks premium talent, Christopher Crawford of Baseball Prospectus tells Lindbergh, some teams — the Rangers (who have the fourth overall pick) chief among them, based on their recent history — could well continue to stockpile arms. The Diamondbacks, who of course sit at first overall, have leaned toward position players recently, although they have an entirely new front office installed this time around. Meanwhile, the percentage of high school players taken has plummeted in the long run, but has jumped more recently. In particular, says Lindbergh, the Red Sox and Blue Jays have moved toward heavy drafting of prep players, who of course represent generally riskier but (in some cases) higher-upside investments. The Nationals have skewed most heavily toward college players — the spread is rather amazingly wide — though that could be due in part to draft circumstances. There are plenty more details in the piece, and I highly recommend a read to prepare for the coming draft.
  • Bonus allocations (which come with the penalty of stark limitations in future drafts) have had a marked impact on clubs’ total outlay on draft-eligible talent, argues Ronald Blum of the Associated Press (via the Denver Post). Draft spending has remained flat over the last three years, with Blum calculating that an analogous increase of total cash commitments to that observed in free agency — which was often the case prior to the new rules — might have delivered an additional $100MM to amateur players over that span. This area is obviously full of complicated questions, including considerations of an international draft, and it’s extremely difficult to identify clear-cut solutions. The piece is full of interesting quotes from notable figures around the game, and is well worth a full read.

Minor Moves: McGehee, McGowan, Schebler, Venditte, Marrero, Mooneyham, Demeritte

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Here are the day’s minor moves:

  • Several notable players are en route to the big leagues. The Giants have brought back third baseman Casey McGehee after he hit well in a brief Triple-A stint (having accepted an optional assignment). Fellow veteran Dustin McGowan, a right-hander, has been recalled by the Phillies; he had been outrighted off the 40-man earlier in the year. And the Dodgers have called up outfielder Scott Schebler, the organization’s minor league player of the year in 2013, who will see his first MLB action. He was placed on the club’s 40-man roster last year, though his numbers have fallen off somewhat early this season after two consecutive .900+ OPS campaigns in the high minors.
  • Most exciting of all, perhaps, is the news that the Athletics have announced that switch-pitcher Pat Venditte has been added to the big league roster. A nearly-unprecedented hurler, Venditte reverses the very idea of platoons by moving seamlessly between pitching with his right and left arms. He’s been outstanding this year at Triple-A, tossing 33 frames of 1.36 ERA ball with 9.0 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9. The 29-year-old has been particularly stingy when facing lefties, holding them to a remarkable .095/.136/.095 slash.
  • First baseman Chris Marrero has reached a minor league deal with the White Sox, Mike Ashmore of MyCentralJersey.com writes. The former Nationals prospect, now 26, had been playing with the indy league Somerset Patriots. He’ll report to Double-A for the Chicago organization.
  • The Nationals have released lefty Brett Mooneyham, who was their third-round pick in the 2012 draft, Matt Eddy of Baseball America tweets. Mooneyham, a 25-year-old Stanford product, has struggled badly with control and shifted exclusively to the pen at the A-ball level this year. He owned just a 6.41 ERA over 19 2/3 frames with 16 strikeouts against 13 walks.
  • Rangers prospect Travis Demeritte, a first-round pick in 2013, has been hit with an 80-game suspension for using banned substances, Anthony Andro of FOX Sports Southwest reports on Twitter. The infielder was repeating the Sally League at age 20. Over 664 plate appearances at the level, he owns a .220/.320/.438 slash with 30 long balls and 16 stolen bases but a whopping 240 strikeouts.
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