International Notes: Rankings, Spending, Alvarez, Guerrero
The 2015-16 international signing period kicks off in six days (July 2), which will lead to significant spending from clubs all around the league in an effort to bolster their farm system. The Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Angels and Diamondbacks will each be ineligible to sign a player for more than $300K due to vastly overshooting their league-assigned international bonus pools in the 2014-15 signing period. Meanwhile, the Cubs and Rangers will be back in the game after being similarly restricted in the 2014-15 period due to excessive spending in 2013-14. Both teams are expected to again be aggressive, though it’s the Dodgers who are rumored to be the most aggressive team on this year’s international market. Here are some notes on this year’s class of July 2 players…
- Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs has released an excellent sortable prospect board with scouting reports, video, projected bonus information and the likeliest landing spot, with information on 69 different international prospects (not all info available for all prospects). McDaniel currently projects the Dodgers to spend $27.05MM on the international market, though that number could grow, as it’s not clear where every prospect is going to land yet. That $27.05MM figure, by the way, comes out to more than $50MM after factoring in the 100% luxury tax they’ll pay for exceeding their $2,020,300 pool by more than 15 percent (pool info via Baseball America).
- In addition to the Dodgers and Cubs, the Royals are expected to blow past their international spending limit as well, writes McDaniel in a separate piece. No one figures to match the Dodgers, though, who are “so recklessly signing whichever player they want for whatever number it takes that teams are openly wondering what top Cuban player they won’t sign during this period,” McDaniel notes. It’s currently tough to peg the market for top Cuban outfield prospect Eddy Julio Martinez, but the Dodgers should be considered the favorite for all Cuban players due to their hyper-aggressive approach, McDaniel adds. He also looks ahead to the 2016-17 market, touching on top names such as Kevin Maitan and Abraham Gutierrez.
- Baseball America’s Ben Badler spoke to six scouts about top international prospects Yadier Alvarez (link) and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. (link). Alvarez’s name has been on the pages of MLBTR for months, as the Cuban righty is said to be the top international pitching prospect on the market thanks to a fastball that reaches 98 mph and the makings of a wipeout slider and an above-average changeup. Badler looks at his sudden emergence from obscurity and gets the takes of scouts who praise him, but also those who view him as a future reliever. As for Guerrero, scouts feel that he has the best combination of hitting ability and power in this year’s class, but he’s already a thick player with a so-so arm, leading to questions about his defensive placement down the line. Alvarez is believed to have a bonus of $16MM+ waiting from the Dodgers, whereas the Blue Jays have long been believed to have a deal with Guerrero (McDaniel pegs the value at $3.45MM).
Pitching Market Notes: Wilson, Bucs, Yankees, Dodgers
The starting pitching market is beginning to take shape around the league. Let’s have a look at the latest reports:
- As the Angels try to remain patient with their lack of production from many lineup spots, they remain in the market for bats and “have dangled” starter C.J. Wilson, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez reports. The Halos would also consider moving prospect arms, per the report, though the team is not interested in parting with the best of the bunch: Andrew Heaney, Sean Newcomb, and Chris Ellis. Wilson, who is playing on a $18MM salary this year and is owed $20MM for next season, has worked to a 3.92 ERA with 7.8 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 over 96 1/3 innings.
- The Pirates are looking at both the Red Sox and Phillies as they consider adding a starter, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Pittsburgh is also interested in a first base upgrade, per the report. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported recently on the Bucs’ interest in Clay Buchholz, though he noted that it seems unlikely that Boston will deal away the righty with two reasonably-priced option years still left on his deal. Philadelphia is sending a scout to take a look at the Pirates’ Double-A affiliate, says Biertempful, who suggests that Aaron Harang could conceivably make sense to add rotation depth.
- At least as of yesterday afternoon, the Yankees “were not on [Cole] Hamels,” Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets. Nevertheless, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes, New York could ultimately feel it necessary to add a high-quality arm. Sherman ticks through some options, noting that there is “nothing active ongoing with the Reds” and suggesting that Jeff Samardzija could be a prime target if the Yankees decide to pursue a starter.
- The Dodgers had a top scout (Galen Carr, per Sherman) on hand to watch Hamels pitch at Yankee Stadium yesterday, as Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com reported. That outing likely did not do much to commend the lefty, but obviously the club will be looking at a much broader body of work in assessing whether to move on Hamels.
NL Notes: Turner, Dodgers, Axford, Phillies
Cubs righty Jacob Turner has been shut down after his elbow “flared up,” president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told reporters, including ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter link). Turner had made two promising rehab starts at Double-A, and was looking like a possible rotation or pen option in the near term for Chicago. The club claimed the former top prospect off waivers last year from the Marlins and exercised his $1MM option for 2015.
Here’s more from the National League:
- Despite their recent offensive woes, the Dodgers see the acquisition of bats as a “lower priority” to adding arms to the rotation, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told reporters, including Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. Friedman says he sees reason to believe that the club’s run production will get back on track, and also likes that the organization has several relievers advancing back from injuries. The rotation, though, looks somewhat thin at the back end. While the team may still get some innings out of Brandon Beachy, who is working back through a rehab stint, it is currently relying on Mike Bolsinger and Carlos Frias, both of whom have struggled to continue their surprisingly excellent work from earlier in the year.
- Rockies righty John Axford has put up strong results for the club, and Nick Groke of the Denver Post writes that he could either become a useful trade piece or be looked at as an asset to be retained. Axford comes with one more year of control via arbitration, effectively providing the club an option year, though he’ll figure to be in line for a nice raise on his $2.6MM salary this year as he continues to rack up saves. Groke notes the possibility of an extension, and club GM Jeff Bridich says that “moving ahead with Axford for future seasons is something we would at least consider.” From my perspective, the smarter play would be to see what Axford will fetch on the trade market and tender him a contract if a strong offer can’t be found. He has been quite good, even if peripherals don’t quite support his 1.31 ERA, with a career-best 60.7% groundball rate that is surely particularly attractive to the club. But extending a reliever is always risky business, particularly when the name in question is 32 years old and has a track record of inconsistent results.
- When he formally joins the Phillies, reported new executive Andy MacPhail could spend some time evaluating the baseball operations department before deciding whether to make any changes or additions to the front office, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports. One possibility, per a source, would be for MacPhail to try to bring on Angels assistant GM Matt Klentak in some capacity. The young executive got his start with the Orioles when MacPhail was in charge there. Klentak was a guest on the MLBTR Podcast’s third episode, back in October.
Draft Signings: Davis, Degano, Williams, Matheny
Here today’s notable draft signings, with slot value information via Baseball America:
- The Dodgers went well over slot to sign fifth-round pick Brendan Davis, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Davis gets $918,600, which is $605K north of the 162nd pick’s assigned slot value. Baseball America placed him just inside its top 500 list, noting that Davis was expected to attend Cal State Fullerton after missing much of his senior high school season with a broken wrist. A “smooth athlete” with good instincts and solid power and hit tools, the shortstop had been a fairly highly-valued prospect before the injury intervened. Los Angeles has yet to sign its top two picks, Walker Buehler and Kyle Funkhouser, and presumably expects to find some savings from those prospective deals to make up for the Davis overage.
- Meanwhile, the Yankees will realize some savings on second-rounder Jeff Degano, according to Jim Callis of MLB.com (via Twitter). The southpaw will earn a $650K bonus after being taken 57th overall ($1,074,400 slot value), freeing $424,400 for New York to apply toward other picks. ESPN.com’s Keith Law was high on Degano, ranking him the 54th-best player available. Law credits Degano with a low-90s fastball, sweeping slider that could grow into an above-average offering, and reasonably promising change. Degano does have some injury questions and already has undergone Tommy John surgery.
- Phillies third-round pick Lucas Williams has agreed to an at-slot, $719,800 bonus, Mayo tweets. The high school shortstop was not considered an early-round option by many prospect hounds coming into the draft, but still commanded a full-slot bonus to forego his commitment to Cal Poly San Luis Obispo.
- The Red Sox have agreed with outfielder Tate Matheny, son of Cards skipper Mike Matheny, to a $512,700 bonus, per Callis (via Twitter). That is the full slot value for the 111th overall pick. Matheny, an outfielder from Missouri State, rated 107th on Baseball America’s list. BA noted that he lacks any notable tools, but has average abilities in several areas and makes the most out of them with plus makeup.
International Notes: Mayeux, Diaz, Heredia
Melissa Mayeux, a 16-year-old French shortstop, has become the first known female to be added to Major League Baseball’s international prospect registration list, writes MLB.com’s Lindsay Berra. That would make Mayeux, who plays for the U-18 French junior national team, eligible to sign with a Major League club on July 2. As Berra goes on to explain, only players that at least have a chance to be signed by a Major League team are typically registered. It still seems unlikely that Mayeux will be signed, Berra continues. European prospects typically sign at the age of 18, as opposed to 16, as is often the case with Latin American prospects. Mayeux tells Berra that she’s not focusing on being the first female added to the registration list and simply hopes to be able to play baseball for as long as possible. MLB director of international game development Mike McClellan calls Mayeux a “legitimate shortstop,” praising her fielding ability and adding that she “swings the bat really well and is fearless.”
A few more notes from the international prospect scene…
- MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports that Cuban outfielder Yusnier Diaz has also registered with MLB and will be eligible to sign in the upcoming signing period (Twitter link). The 18-year-old Diaz will first need to be declared a free agent by the league before he can sign, however. Ben Badler of Baseball America reported in April that Diaz had left Cuba, though at the time there seemed to be a chance that Diaz would be ineligible for the upcoming signing period. That no longer appears to be the case. Badler praised Diaz’s plus speed and plus arm, though he also noted that his right-handed swing is a bit long at times.
- Speaking of Badler, his latest piece examines top international prospect Starling Heredia‘s unusual baseball career (subscription required and recommended). The Dominican outfielder never even played in an organized baseball game until he was 13 years old, Badler writes. Heredia tells Badler that his coaches originally wanted him to be a third baseman, but he was unimpressive there and garnered little attention until he homered on the first swing he took. Heredia was converted to an outfielder and he’s grown at a surprising rate, as he’s already said to be 6’1″ and 215 pounds. Badler spoke to multiple scouts who praised Heredia’s bat speed, running speed and strong arm, but there’s some question about he’ll handle more advanced pitching. Badler notes that the Dodgers are the favorites to sign Heredia, who could receive a bonus in excess of $2MM.
Quick Hits: International Spending, Giants, Cubans
Remember when the Padres, Red Sox, and White Sox were the most improved teams in the majors? They, along with the Marlins, are below .500 despite their busy offseasons, writes Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. Alternatively, the Blue Jays have pushed into playoff contention with a recent winning streak. Toronto added Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin over the offseason, but the core of the team has remained largely intact. Kepner notes that these quick turnaround rebuilds are no guarantee for solid performance.
Here’s more from around the league:
- A new international signing period will begin on July 2nd, but 2016 is the time for your favorite team to break the bank, per Ben Badler of Baseball America. The Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Angels, and Diamondbacks are already unable to spend more than $300K on a player for the next two seasons. The Dodgers, Cubs, Royals, Phillies, and Blue Jays may blow past their bonus limit in the 2015 signing period. That will remove many of the most active teams from the market in 2016. Badler gives a complete description of the international market conditions. It’s well worth a read.
- The Giants will soon face a roster crunch in their rotation, writes Chris Haft of MLB.com. Jake Peavy is medically ready to return, and Matt Cain is nearing readiness. The easiest move would be to option Chris Heston, but he’s tied for the club lead with seven wins and recently no-hit the Mets. Ryan Vogelsong and Tim Hudson have been merely serviceable. The same can be said of Tim Lincecum in recent weeks. With the exception of Heston, the other rotation arms could be lost if they’re designated for assignment. The club could opt to move Lincecum and Vogelsong into the bullpen, but that just pushes the roster crunch elsewhere.
- An influx of Cuban players could soon flood the majors, writes Bill Shaiken of the Los Angeles Times. Cuban players, even those who fall under international spending restrictions, are currently able to negotiate with all 30 clubs. That increases their bargaining power. It’s a big reason why infielder Roberto Baldoquin cost about four times more than the Angels’ entire 2015 amateur draft class. Cubans are currently the third most represented foreign nation in the majors. Opening day rosters included 18 Cubans, 65 Venezuelans, and 83 Dominicans. Cuba has a comparable population to the Dominican Republic. As such, we could see a surge of Cuban players as diplomatic relations continue to thaw.
Erisbel Arruebarrena’s Suspension Reduced To 30 Days
The team-issued, season-long suspension of Dodgers minor league shortstop Erisbel Arruebarrena has been reduced to 30 days, reports Craig Calcaterra of NBC Sports’ Hardball Talk. Citing Arruebarrena’s attorney, Jay Reisinger, Calcaterra adds that an appeal to the commissioner’s office was filed on behalf of Arruebarrena, and the two sides ultimately reached a settlement.
The 25-year-old Arruebarrena had originally been suspended for the season due to “repeated failures to comply with his contract,” although his exact transgressions were never reported. Because it was a team-issued suspension, however, performance-enhancing drugs can be ruled out, and drugs of abuse can likely be crossed off the list as well.
Arruebarrena signed a five-year, $25MM contract with the Dodgers upon defecting from Cuba. Said at the time to be a brilliant defensive infielder with a questionable bat, Arruebarrena batted .259/.304/.417 across four minor league levels with the Dodgers in 2014 before surfacing at the Major League level. True to the scouting reports, he struggled at the plate in 45 appearances, batting just .195/.244/.220.
Arruebarrena has already reported to the Dodgers’ Spring Training facility in Arizona to resume baseball activities and begin baseball activities. The decision doesn’t seem to dramatically increase the likelihood that Arruebarrena will appear in a Dodgers’ uniform in the near future, as there’s still likely some bad blood between the player and the organization. From a financial standpoint, the reduced suspension carries some ramifications for the Dodgers. Had Arruebarrena spent the entire season serving a suspension, he wouldn’t have earned his $3MM salary. With that reduced to 30 days, Arruebarrena is now “only” out $491K, meaning the Dodgers will still have to pay him a little more than $2.5MM of his salary.
Heyman’s Latest: Phillies, C. Johnson, Sellers, Harang, Rays
In his weekly Inside Baseball column, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports begins by taking a look at a messy situation in Philadelphia. Heyman hears the same rumblings that were first reported by CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury — that Andy MacPhail could very well be in line for an executive role with the Phillies. The hiring of MacPhail would bring into question the status of both GM Ruben Amaro and manager Ryne Sandberg. While one exec notes that no one could have had much success with the hand Sandberg has been dealt, his calm demeanor hasn’t motivated the team much, and he may have lost the clubhouse at this point. Heyman notes that partial owner John Middleton, who is believed by some to be calling the shots in Philly, may have extra impetus to get a new decision-maker in the door so that a lame-duck GM (Amaro’s contract expires at season’s end) isn’t the primary decision-maker on what could be a franchise-altering Cole Hamels trade. Speaking of Hamels, Heyman notes that interested teams will want to see him pitch at least twice now that he had a start pushed back due to a hamstring strain, thinning the window of opportunity to trade him. As far as Jonathan Papelbon goes, the belief is that he’d approve any trade that sent him to a contending team, though the Cubs might be his preferred fit at this point if he had a say in the matter.
Some more highlights from Heyman’s latest (though there’s more in the column than we can cover here)…
- The Braves have tried to trade Chris Johnson and even offered to substantially pay down the remaining money on his contract, but there’s been little interest. The Johnson deal was widely questioned from the start, and there’s still about $21MM owed to Johnson through the end of the 2017 season. Johnson’s a viable weapon against lefties, but he’s a sub-par hitter against right-handed pitchers and is not well-regarded from a defensive standpoint.
- Rival teams are beginning to wonder if the Red Sox might sell some pieces this summer, with Mike Napoli, Clay Buchholz and Koji Uehara among the possible names listed by Heyman. Napoli isn’t hitting for average but has shown good power and a nice walk rate. Buchholz has improved after a rocky start and Uehara again has strong numbers in the ‘pen.
- The White Sox are beginning to think about selling, Heyman hears, but they’re not quite ready to move their bigger pieces. Emilio Bonifacio might be the first name they make available, but eventually, Jeff Samardzija‘s name could be out there. Heyman writes that while Samardzija isn’t pitching well in 2015, his big arm is so tantalizing to scouts that there will still be interest in him.
- The Reds aren’t expected to sell until after the All-Star Game and would be very open to shedding Brandon Phillips‘ contract, per Heyman, though I have a difficult time envisioning too many teams lining up to take on the remainder of that deal. Phillips is owed about $34.1MM through the end of the 2017 season and has seen his power more or less vanish. Heyman speculates that Everth Cabrera could be a fit in Cincinnati with Zack Cozart out for the year, and there’s some logic to that scenario, though they may first prefer to see what they have in Eugenio Suarez. The Mets aren’t interested in Cabrera, he adds later.
- The Marlins aren’t selling yet, according to GM-turned-manager Dan Jennings. “We’re in it, we’re not jumping off the ship. No doubt about that,” Jennings told Heyman. If their attitude changes, Heyman thinks they’ll find interest in Martin Prado and Mike Dunn.
- The Astros like Aaron Harang but are said to be aiming higher when looking at potential trade targets to bolster their rotation.
- The Dodgers are on the hunt for a top-tier starting pitcher and a late-inning arm to help bridge the gap to Kenley Jansen. In other Dodgers-related news, Heyman hears that No. 35 pick Kyle Funkhouser is strongly considering returning to Louisville. Funkhouser was once looked at as a potential Top 10 pick, but he fell to a slot with a $1.756MM value. He’d have less leverage in 2016 as a senior sign, of course, but he could certainly improve his draft stock and his bonus with a big senior year.
- Yankees chief international officer/executive vice president Felix Lopez is no longer listed on the team’s web site and some indicate that he’s been gone from the organization for three months, Heyman writes. Lopez was said to have angered Yoan Moncada‘s camp after calling to express displeasure with their decision to sign in Boston over New York. The team hasn’t made a statement on his departure.
- The Rays are looking for first base help with James Loney on the disabled list, but Loney’s said to be returning around the All-Star break. Heyman speculates on the possibility of Ryan Howard ending up in Tampa Bay if the Phillies eat some or all of the contract, but I’d think there’d be something of a logjam there once Loney is activated in that scenario.
NL Notes: Jennings, Fernandez, Gee, Lynn, Moscot, Beachy
Dan Jennings is likely to remain in the dugout for the Marlins next year, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports. That is far from a sure thing, per the report, but the club is preliminarily sketching out a 2016 that includes Jennings as the manager. The club is showing signs of gelling under Jennings, says Frisaro, and Miami still is holding out hope of getting back into the mix.
- One key component of a Marlins turnaround would be the successful return of young righty Jose Fernandez, who announced yesterday that he hopes to return to start on July 2. Fernandez has, of course, been out since early 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson said yesterday that he had just one “serious conversation” about an offseason Dillon Gee deal, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reports on Twitter. Presumably, he is having more now, as Gee remains in DFA limbo. While Gee has struggled this year, he should have appeal to teams looking for some back-of-the-rotation options. A deal would allow New York to save some money on the $5.3MM owed Gee this year; he’ll also come with one more season of control via arbitration.
- The Cardinals have received good news on righty Lance Lynn, as MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports. Lynn is back throwing after hitting the DL with forearm tightness, and St. Louis hopes that he can come back after missing just two starts.
- A quick return may not be in the cards for Reds righty Jon Moscot, who suffered a dislocated left shoulder yesterday in a freak accident, as John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. The 23-year-old rookie was making his third start for Cincinnati, which has been beset by injuries of late.
- Brandon Beachy is set to begin a rehab assignment for the Dodgers, with the club’s Rancho Cucamonga affiliate announcing that he’ll make his first appearance tonight. The 28-year-old righty has not appeared in the big leagues since 2013, undergoing successive Tommy John procedures in the interim. His ability to return to provide innings for Los Angeles could play a role in the team’s summer trade plans.
Dodgers Agree To Terms With Mitchell Hansen
The Dodgers have agreed to terms with second-rounder Mitchell Hansen, Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs reports on Twitter. Hansen will receive a $1MM bonus, per Jim Callis of MLB.com (via Twitter).
Hansen, who had been committed to Stanford, is a high school outfielder out of Texas. He rated as high as 37th on draft boards coming in, with ESPN.com’s Keith Law giving him that tag based on “above-average tools across the board,” including good athleticism, solid raw power, and a strong defensive profile.
The MLB.com team also saw Hansen as a top-forty draft prospect, while Baseball America had him just a peg lower. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs took the dimmest view of Hansen’s future, putting him in the 61st slot.
The reported signing bonus will require the Dodgers to cover $78,900 in overages as against the slot value of the 67th selection. Hansen becomes the highest Dodgers pick to sign thus far, with righties Walker Buehler and Kyle Funkhouser chosen ahead of him and still unsigned.