Sherman’s Latest: Gonzalez, Guillen, Castillo, Martin
Let’s take a little break from Peavy-mania and look at some other situations around the big leagues, courtesy of Joel Sherman.
- Padres GM Kevin Towers can’t see any circumstances under which he’d trade first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. He’s signed cheaply, and the Padres already have offensive problems.
- Sherman knows that it will be extremely difficult for the Mets to move Luis Castillo this offseason, but offers one scenario that has been discussed before: Trade Castillo to the Royals for perennial hothead Jose Guillen. Guillen would bring the Mets a power bat and arm to put in left field, while Castillo would bring the Royals some much-needed OBP and a replacement for free agent Mark Grudzielanek. The difference would be the Royals saving $6MM over Castillo’s remaining three seasons, with the Mets taking on $6MM more, but only having two years of a bad contract. Personally, I think this move could make a lot of sense for both teams, although I’d prefer to have Guillen over Castillo. Also, the Mets apparently have no interest in an Eric Byrnes/Castillo swap.
- The Phillies may be looking for a way to replace Pat Burrell cheaply in order to pursue a free agent starter. One proposed method would be to move Greg Dobbs to left field. Sherman notes that there wouldn’t be much difference in range between Burrell and Dobbs. Dobbs posted an .824 OPS this season in 226 ABs, but the alarming thing is that 217 of those ABs came against right-handed pitching. Dobbs was just 1 for 9 against lefties in 2008, and has just 52 career ABs against LHP, in which he’s posted a .579 OPS. A plattoon with Eric Brutnlett could work, but if I were a Philadelphia fan, I’d be hoping for an alternative solution. Sherman reminds us that the Phils were players for Manny Ramirez in July…
- This one surprised me, but Sherman throws a new name as a possibility on the trade market: Russell Martin. Sherman cites rival executives in saying that the Dodgers aren’t "enamored with his makeup" and that with frontline catchers being hot commodities, the Dodgers could explore the market to see what Martin could bring in return. Personally, I think moving Martin would be a mistake, but I have to admit, Martin would indeed fetch a very nice return.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Peavy Suitors, Lowe, Cardinals, Marlins
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up, focusing largely on suitors for Jake Peavy, but also touching on some other news at the end… so let’s take a look!
- Rosenthal states that the following teams have been speculated to be suitors for the Padres’ ace: Braves, Angels, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, Dodgers, Cardinals, Brewers, Rays, Rangers. While all of these are not serious possibilities, he elaborates on each team. He mentions Yunel Escobar as a likely centerpiece from Atlanta, and states that the Angels would love to acquire a frontline starter to allow them to send Ervin Santana and/or Joe Saunders to Colorado in a deal for Matt Holliday and/or Garrett Atkins. Rosenthal states that Howie Kendrick could be a big part of any trade, but his health seems like too serious of a concern to me. Rosenthal speculates on the possibility of a dominant rotation for the Yankees if they traded for Peavy and signed C.C. Sabathia. One rival executive’s speculative package for Boston included Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and Justin Masterson. The Padres will likely charge the Dodgers considerably more for Peavy’s service, as they are division rivals. He lists Rickie Weeks and J.J. Hardy as a possible centerpiece for a Milwaukee blockbuster, but also points out that Ben Sheets has made the Brewers wary of injury concerns. The other teams don’t seem to match up well, in Rosenthal’s opinion.
- Rosenthal says that he was wrong in stating that Derek Lowe would prefer to remain on the West Coast. Lowe has now told him that he’d prefer to go East, with Boston being his top choice. He reiterated this desire to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo.
- The Cardinals prefer a short-term solution for their closer situation, and will likely give Chris Perez the ninth inning job, or seek a lower-budget option through the trade market. They may also trade a young outfielder for an established bat at a corner OF position.
- Kevin Gregg is still likely to be traded (perhaps an option for St. Louis), and four teams have asked Florida about Jeremy Hermida. Rosenthal speculates that the Marlins will begin 2009 with Cameron Maybin in center field and Cody Ross in right.
Perrotto’s Latest: Peavy, Unit, Joba
John Perrotto has his Every Given Sunday column up over at Baseball Prospectus. Here’s some highlights from his "Rumors and Rumblings section" this week:
- Perrotto expects a Jake Peavy deal to be done before the Winter Meetings, stating that the Braves, Yankees, and Dodgers seem to be the leaders in the race right now. He notes that the Yankees will be willing to include Phil Hughes, while the Braves are willing to move Yunel Escobar. I personally like the Escobar idea for San Diego, as it would allow them to make Atlanta take on Khalil Greene’s salary. A package around Escobar and Tommy Hanson would certainly be tough to ignore.
- Perrotto reiterates that a move to the Dodgers or Angels for California-native Randy Johnson seems like a strong possibility. Johnson posted a fine season for the Diamondbacks, despite being 45 years old. He’s maintained a very solid strikeout-rate even at this stage in his career, fanning 8.46 batters per nine innings.
- The Yankees are planning on using Joba Chamberlain in their rotation next year, but are not planning on settling for what they have. Perrotto states that the Yankees will "go all-in" on the free agent market, making aggressive offers to C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, and Mark Teixeira. Add in the pursuit of Peavy, and decisions on numerous free agents, and it looks like a very busy offseason for the Bombers.
Cubs Considering Manny?
From the speculative rumor mill, Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune suggests Manny Ramirez could be what the Cubs are missing, and the opportunity to bring him to Chicago could be there this offseason. Says Rogers,
"With the aggressive nature of general manager Jim Hendry and the anything-to-win approach in the Lou Piniella era, don’t rule this out—not if the Dodgers would take on a big contract or two from the Cubs…
There’s no way the Cubs can play two left fielders, so [Alfonso] Soriano would have to go for Ramirez to come. Soriano seems to be essentially an immovable object with six years and $106 million left on his contract, but the Dodgers will need two things if they don’t re-sign Ramirez—power hitting and another buzz guy."
Rogers cites bad contracts on both teams that could facilitate a deal, but I think this is a reach. The Cubs would need to deal Soriano or Aramis Ramirez, both with no-trade clauses, specifically to the Dodgers to free up enough cash to sign Manny who’s seeking a 6 year contract with "iconic money". This would also hinge on the contingency that the Dodgers would pass on Manny to acquire Soriano or Aramis Ramirez, both of whom paled in comparison this offseason.
Latest Peavy Rumors
9:03pm: Lots of good stuff from yesterday’s San Diego Union-Tribune that we haven’t covered. First, Kevin Towers says he’s looking for young controllable pitching and then middle infielders in a package for Peavy. No mention of a center field focus, which had been mentioned previously.
Additionally, Towers explained that the Astros do not match up well given his stated desire for multiple young pitchers. So far the Braves look like the best fit.
On the Cardinals front, Joe Strauss says the team’s scouts met this week and are enthusiastic about pursuing Peavy. Strauss’s sources say Peavy’s availability "loosened the organization’s grip on younger talent." Viva El Birdos believes Peavy would cost top prospect Colby Rasmus and then some. Despite Towers’ stated focus on starting pitching, an offer including Rasmus would have to give him pause.
3:26pm: The latest from the Jake Peavy universe:
While the Astros were high on the list of contenders yesterday, MLB.com Astros beat writer Alyson Footer isn’t so sure. According to Footer, sources named the Dodgers and the Braves as the two teams drawing the most interest, and said a deal could be in place within a week.
12:00pm: We had a good running mill of Jake Peavy rumors yesterday, but the stove is still hot. According to MLB.com beat writer Mark Bowman, the Braves are preparing a pitch for the Padres ace.
Citing a team official knowledgeable on the situation, Bowman reports the Braves have already had preliminary discussions with the Padres to gauge what kind of package would have to be put together to land the former Cy Young winner.
At this point, writes Bowman, the Braves are essentially in a holding pattern, waiting for the Padres to consider other deals from other teams. And it might be a long wait.
According to the report, the package the Braves are preparing would include top prospects, but it could also be improved if either second baseman Kelly Johnson or shortstop Yunel Escobar are included. Bowman thinks the Padres would have to include Khalil Greene for the Braves to consider dealing Escobar.
Peavy has said he’d waive his no-trade clause to pitch for Atlanta.
Alejandro A. Leal writes for UmpBump.com and can be reached here: alexo05 -at- umpbump -dot- com. Tim Dierkes also contributed to this post.
Odds and Ends: Pitt, Manny, White Sox
Links for Friday…
- The Red Sox claimed pitcher Dewon Day off waivers from the White Sox, and also designated pitcher Chris Smith for assignment.
- Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch ponders trading Colby Rasmus to get Jake Peavy and Khalil Greene.
- Brad Pitt as Billy Beane in the Moneyball movie? Beane hopes to add offense this winter.
- J.C. Bradbury estimates Manny Ramirez‘s value at $128MM over the next six years. I think Manny and Boras would happily accept such an offer.
- Dave Cameron laments the lack of respect for Ryan Langerhans.
- South Side Sox presents an offseason plan for the White Sox.
- Jacob Jackson at Athletics Nation predicts destinations for his top 12 free agents. My Top 50 will come out after the World Series. I disagree with a few of Jacob’s picks – Derek Lowe and Jason Giambi re-signing and the Cubs signing Adam Dunn.
- I attempted to find some over/undervalued starting pitchers for fantasy baseball over at RotoAuthority.
Player-Coach Role For Maddux?
Interesting note from Mel Antonen and Bob Nightengale at USA Today, found via Shysterball:
The San Diego Padres have talked to Greg Maddux about of becoming a player-coach in the organization, general manager Kevin Towers said Thursday. Yet Towers anticipates that Maddux might retire instead.
Maddux seems to already serve that type of role, making his 32 starts while tutoring young pitchers. Might as well make it official if he sticks around in 2009. The Padres might have a hard time fitting Maddux in the budget, but the Dodgers or Giants could be alternatives if the Professor wants to make a run at fifth all-time in wins.
He’ll have to get past Pud Galvin. The game hasn’t changed much since Pud’s day. Did you know he pitched 656.3 innings in 75 starts as a 26 year-old in 1883?
Randy Johnson’s Future
Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic has an in-depth look at the Randy Johnson situation. The legendary 45 year-old lefty was effective this year in 30 starts. It seems highly unlikely that he’ll retire just five wins from 300. There are concerns he would remain committed after winning those five games.
Piecoro says D’Backs GM Josh Byrnes hinted that he is not willing to go as high as $10MM for Johnson in 2009. The team seemingly doesn’t have much more than that to spend in total, and they have other needs. Also, the Diamondbacks are against incentive-based contracts. Still, Piecoro wonders if ownership could step in and mandate re-signing Johnson.
Johnson is right on the borderline for Type B status, but the D’Backs stand to pick up many draft picks for other players so they may not risk offering arbitration. Would Johnson pitch elsewhere? Piecoro feels that he favors the West Coast, making the Dodgers and Angels intriguing possibilities.
Dodgers Rumors: Manny, Nomar, Lowe, Penny, Kent
Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times discusses the Dodgers’ upcoming busy offseason, while Bill Shaikin focuses on Manny Ramirez.
- Nomar Garciaparra is undecided about playing next year. He hit .264/.326/.466 in 181 plate appearances in 2008 while earning $8.5MM.
- Manager Joe Torre seems to consider pitching the top offseason priority. Makes sense, with the statuses of Derek Lowe and Brad Penny in question. Hernandez’s sources say Lowe felt underappreciated during his time in L.A., and he is expected to leave. It’s unknown whether the Dodgers will choose Penny’s $9.25MM option or the $2MM buyout.
- Hernandez doesn’t see GM Ned Colletti breaking up his core group of young players to acquire Jake Peavy.
- The departure of Jeff Kent is near-certain Blake DeWitt can step in at second or third base.
- The Manny situation is difficult, because the Dodgers will take a lot of heat if they won’t meet his asking price (perhaps $100MM+). Former Dodgers GM Fred Claire suggests a more reasonable offer of three years, $60MM.
Latest On Peavy
9:53pm: More from Olney. The Padres are aggressively shopping Peavy, with the Braves and Dodgers two possible suitors. Olney’s sources believe Peavy will be dealt "in the weeks ahead." The Padres want two young pitchers and a near MLB-ready center fielder in return. The Braves and Dodgers could both meet that demand.
7:07pm: O’Brien has a new article up; he says the Braves and Padres have discussed Peavy. Not much is known beyond that. Paul DePodesta offers his thoughts on the situation, basically explaining that any player should be available for a compelling return. Thus far, the Padres haven’t received a compelling offer for Peavy.
10:04am: It’s early in the process, but Jake Peavy‘s availability has baseball fans all worked up. As a reminder, Peavy prefers the NL. He specifically likes Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and St. Louis. He considers L.A. a particularly good fit and therefore is open to the Angels. Peavy controls his fate, as he has a full no-trade clause. On to today’s links:
- Dylan Hernandez reminds us that the Dodgers are on Peavy’s short list, and they could lose ace Derek Lowe.
- Dave Cameron looks at the numbers and questions whether Peavy will continue to pitch like an ace. Are the Padres selling high?
- You may recall Buster Olney’s rumor yesterday that one team, "perhaps the Cardinals," is discussing the idea of adding Khalil Greene to a Peavy deal. David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wonders if that team is instead the Braves, offering Yunel Escobar.