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Latest On J.T. Realmuto

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SUNDAY: The Rays “appear content” with their current lineup, according to the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin, who adds it would be “unexpected” for the club to make any more trades with spring training nearing. That seems to cast doubt on the possibility of the Rays acquiring Realmuto.

SATURDAY: Twists and turns continue in the saga of Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, who has been a dominant presence in trade rumors throughout the offseason. As of Thursday, the Padres, Reds, Dodgers and Braves were reportedly the last remaining suitors for Realmuto, but the Rays have worked their way back into the mix, according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. While it seemed earlier this week that Tampa Bay had exited the race for Realmuto, the club has “re-engaged” as spring training nears, per Frisaro.

Fresh off a surprising 90-win season in 2018, the Rays entered the winter as candidates to make noteworthy upgrades, despite their low-payroll ways, but have mostly shied away from headline-grabbing moves. The Rays’ biggest pickup thus far has been right-hander Charlie Morton, whom they inked to a two-year, $30MM contract, and they’ve also reeled in the less expensive trio of catcher Mike Zunino (via trade with Seattle), infielder Yandy Diaz (via trade with Cleveland) and outfielder Avisail Garcia (one year, $3.5MM guarantee). With those four in tow, the Rays are only projected to open the season with a $59MM-plus payroll – far below their $76MM-plus mark from 2018 – as Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates.

Fortunately for the small-spending Rays, acquiring Realmuto would not cause a sizable dent in their budget. He’ll earn $5.9MM this year, his second-last arbitration season, and that relatively inexpensive sum only increases his appeal from their standpoint. At the same time, it also helps explain why the Marlins have been holding out for a bounty for the soon-to-be 28-year-old Realmuto, who was the majors’ top catcher last season. And the Rays, whose farm system features nine of ESPN’s Keith Law’s top-100 prospects (subscription required), likely have the ammunition to get a deal done if they’re motivated.

However, should the Rays land Realmuto, it’s an open question whether Zunino would remain in place. Tampa Bay could simply keep Zunino as Realmuto’s backup, thus giving it the game’s best behind-the-plate tandem, but the former may once again become a trade chip in his own right. With a quality track record, two years of arbitration eligibility remaining and a sub-$4.5MM salary for 2019, Zunino could bring back a player(s) capable of helping the Rays’ roster at another position. Zunino has already netted a solid return in a trade once this offseason, as the Rays acquired him in a five-player deal in which they parted with a cheap, starting-caliber outfielder in Mallex Smith.

The Marlins, meanwhile, may receive a Realmuto replacement as part of a trade, which could make Zunino an attractive target for them. While that’s merely speculation, they have discussed veteran backstop Tucker Barnhart in trade talks with the Reds, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com tweets. Additionally, a potential deal with Cincinnati could include 22-year-old third baseman Jonathan India (previously reported) – whom the Reds selected fifth overall in last summer’s draft – as well as at least one “lesser” prospect, Mayo relays. Acquiring Realmuto would be the latest sign that Cincinnati’s aiming to return to contention in 2019. The Reds are currently coming off their fifth straight sub-.500 season and fourth straight campaign with fewer than 70 wins, but they’ve since picked up a slew of household names in various trades.

Like the Reds, the Padres seem hopeful they’ll put several years of irrelevance behind them during the upcoming season. Although the Padres haven’t made any significant improvements yet, they’ve been connected to Realmuto and other stars in the rumor mill. Trading for Realmuto would surely take a bite out of the Padres’ loaded farm system –  a unit which includes a whopping 10 top-100 prospects, per Law; subscription required). Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported last week that the Marlins wanted big-hitting catcher prospect Francisco Mejia from the Padres in exchange for Realmuto, but it doesn’t seem that’s the case anymore. At this point, Miami’s interest in Mejia isn’t “especially high,” according to Morosi, Therefore, it’s “likely” that the Marlins would instead need one of Fernando Tatis Jr., MacKenzie Gore or Luis Urias from the Padres in a Realmuto package, Morosi writes. Tatis, Gore and Urias rank first, second and fourth among the Padres’ prospects at MLB.com, which places Mejia third.

It’s currently anyone’s guess which uniform Realmuto will don in 2019, but it seems we’ll find out in the coming days. The Marlins are within two weeks of opening camp, and it’s unlikely Realmuto will still be on their roster at that point, Frisaro suggests.

Padres Notes: Marwin, Kikuchi, Eovaldi, Realmuto, Tatis

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Here’s the latest from sunny San Diego…

  • The Padres have interest in super-utilityman Marwin Gonzalez, The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports (subscription required).  Gonzalez’s versatility would make him an important figure on a roster with so many moving parts, with Lin suggesting that Gonzalez could initially play shortstop until top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. is ready for the majors (likely early 2020 but potentially by late in the 2019 season).  Once Tatis has been promoted, Gonzalez could be used all around the diamond.  This multi-position ability, of course, will make Gonzalez a popular target around the league; earlier reports suggested that the free agent has drawn some interest from almost every team in baseball.
  • Pitching is a big priority for the Padres this winter, though Lin has updates on two notable arms that didn’t quite fit into the team’s plans.  The Friars were unwilling to offer more than three years to Nathan Eovaldi, who landed a four-year deal to re-sign with the Red Sox.  Meanwhile, San Diego “has not placed a high priority” on pursuing Japanese southpaw Yusei Kikuchi.  The Padres, like other west coast teams, had been mentioned as a logical suitor for Kikuchi given their closer proximity to Japan.
  • While the Padres have had a long-standing interest in Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, their chances of trading for the All-Star could be limited.  As outlined by both Lin and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Realmuto is something of an imperfect fit for a Padres team that may not be planning to contend for another year, as Realmuto is only under contract through the 2020 season.  As Acee notes, while the team may be open to Realmuto as essentially a rental (with catching prospect Luis Campusano perhaps ready to take over by 2021), that would limit what the Padres are willing to offer the Marlins, who have been unwilling to accept anything less than a sky-high return for Realmuto’s services.  One scenario that doesn’t seem to be an option is the idea of San Diego acquiring Realmuto only to flip him elsewhere in another trade — Lin writes that the Padres value Realmuto as “a rare impact player” on their own roster.
  • The Padres have reportedly been unwilling to discuss trading top prospects MacKenzie Gore or Luis Urias, though MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell feels Tatis is the only absolutely untouchable prospect.  Gore, Urias, or any of the other blue chip talents in San Diego’s deep farm system could all be moved “for the right price,” and Cassavell feels the team would make such a move for a frontline MLB star (such as, for instance, Noah Syndergaard).

Latest On Noah Syndergaard

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While other major rumors swirl, the Mets appear to have a line open with other organizations regarding power righty Noah Syndergaard. Chatter on Thor has been percolating for some time now, but there’s increasing indication that the Mets actually prefer to move the franchise cornerstone.

Indeed, the New York org is “motivated” to move on from Syndergaard, according to Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs (Twitter link), with the organization said to be reaching out to rivals to gauge interest. As others have suggested, the Mets would then anticipate turning around and bringing in another starter via free agency.

It remains somewhat unclear precisely why the Mets have determined that trading Syndergaard is the right course, but new GM Brodie Van Wagenen is clearly out to re-shape the roster. That the big righty is a former Van Wagenen client only adds to the intrigue. In any event, there’ll be no shortage of suitors. When healthy, Syndergaard is a monster on the mound and a rather marketable asset to boot.

The rival club most frequently tied to Syndergaard of late is the Padres. As Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets, though, the San Diego outfit is not only unwilling to part with top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr., but won’t part with MacKenzie Gore or Luis Urias, either. It seems that the Friars are more amenable to discussing other prospects, though it’s arguable there are a few others who are or ought to be just as untouchable as that trio.

Otherwise, the Brewers are now a team to watch on Syndergaard, according to Andy Martino of SNY.tv. Their level of interest isn’t clear, but it’s obviously not hard to imagine the Milwaukee org liking the idea of placing Thor atop their rotation. The Reds and Yankees, however, are not involved in the pursuit.

As for the Mets’ apparent plan to add another arm if they move Syndergaard, it’s anyone’s guess how that’ll play out. Certainly, with other moves afoot that’d add salary, this approach would indicate a real willingness to boost the payroll. Just how far, though, remains to be seen. The top-available pitchers would require significant contracts. Other, lesser hurlers are obviously under consideration — Mike Puma of the New York Post cites Gio Gonzalez on Twitter — but assuredly will not bring Syndergaard’s upside and will still out-earn him in 2019 (he’s projected at just $5.9MM).

Luis Urias Unlikely To Return In 2018 After Hamstring Injury

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The Padres do not expect recently promoted infield prospect Luis Urias to return to action this season after suffering a hamstring injury last night, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell reports. Though the full extent of the injury isn’t yet known, San Diego skipper Andy Green says it already seems “doubtful” Urias will make it back in 2018.

Clearly, with just over two weeks left to play, there isn’t a lot of time remaining to make it back onto the field. Most importantly, the Friars will want to be sure not to push a critical young player too hard at this late stage of a noncompetitive season.

Urias won’t turn 22 until next June, but he forced his way onto the MLB roster recently with another quality showing in the upper minors. In his 533 Triple-A plate appearances this season, Urias hit a career-high eight home runs and slashed an impressive .296/.398/.447.

Of course, Urias hasn’t been quite as impressive in his very first attempt at major-league pitching. In a dozen games, he has produced a .208/.264/.354 slash with two home runs and an uncharacteristic mix of ten strikeouts and just three walks.

That limited showing doesn’t detract from Urias’s lofty promise. And it’s certainly not going to prevent him from competing for a MLB job in camp next year. Still, that less-than-compelling output matters somewhat to his near-future roster outlook. Particularly if the hammy tweak sidelines Urias the rest of the way, he arguably will not have shown enough to lock up a starting role in advance of Spring Training.

Padres Promote Luis Urias

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Aug. 28: The Padres have formally announced Urias’ promotion to the Majors. Asuaje has been optioned to Triple-A to open a spot on the active roster. San Diego has also placed lefty Clayton Richard on the 10-day disabled due to inflammation in his left knee and activated right-hander Colten Brewer from the disabled list in his place.

Aug. 27: The Padres are set to promote highly regarded infield prospect Luis Urias, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He is expected to debut tomorrow.

Urias, 21, is widely considered one of the crown jewels of a Padres system that, the organization has long hoped, will usher in a golden age of baseball in San Diego. There’s a clear consensus that he’s one of the most promising young players in baseball, with outlets such as Fangraphs (#22), MLB.com (#22), and Baseball America (#29) rating him among the game’s thirty or so best prospects.

There’s a lot to like about Urias’s potential as a hitter. He features a rare combination of plate discipline and contact ability that has allowed him to hit over .300 while carrying nearly a .400 OBP over his five minor-league seasons. Power isn’t a strong suit, though Urias has increased his home-run output over recent campaigns and this year has put the ball over the fence eight times in 533 plate appearances.

It seems fair to note, too, that Urias has the kind of underlying skills that could allow him to come into more power at the game’s highest level. In recent years, we’ve seen several players — Jose Altuve, Francisco Lindor, and Jose Ramirez among them, to take a few famous examples — develop surprising pop after reaching the bigs. Whether or not Urias is destined for that kind of outcome obviously isn’t yet known, but it seems notable that MLB.com credits him with more raw power than his outcomes indicate while BA cites Urias’s impressive exit velocity.

To be sure, Urias would likely generate even greater excitement if he was considered a future shortstop. Still, he is also valued for his defensive potential. Most evaluators indicate that he’ll likely be a high-quality defender at second base. It doesn’t hurt that he’s considered at least capable of playing shortstop as well; indeed, Acee says that Urias will get some time there upon his arrival.

For the Padres, this promotion offers an opportunity to get a look at a player who’s expected to hold down an important role for years to come. Urias will not accrue enough service time this year to put himself on track for future Super Two status. If he stays in the majors from here on out, he won’t be eligible for free agency until at least 2025. Picking up thirty-plus days of MLB action will make it a bit harder for the Friars to hold Urias down to open the 2019 season in hopes of extending the team’s control rights.

If he shows well upon his arrival, Urias will likely enter camp next year as the odds-on favorite to open the season as the regular second baseman. San Diego has not received much production from its options at the position thus far in 2018, after all, so the organization is no doubt anxious to plug in a permanent piece. Jose Pirela, Carlos Asuaje, and Cory Spangenberg have all failed to take advantage of opportunities at second this season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL West Notes: Padres, Archer, Giants, Shark, Evans, Dodgers

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Reports yesterday indicated the Padres were checking around about a potential Chris Archer trade with the Rays, and MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi sheds a bit more light on those talks.  San Diego is reportedly willing to move one or two of Francisco Mejia, Luis Urias, and Cal Quantrill in an Archer deal, though its top two prospects (Fernando Tatis Jr. and MacKenzie Gore) are not available.  Even without Tatis or Gore on the table, dealing any of those other highly-touted prospects would be a major concession on San Diego’s part, and a big score for the Rays.  Mejia was only just acquired by the Padres as the return for Brad Hand and Adam Cimber, so in my opinion, it could be that the team sees the young catcher as somewhat “found money” — put another way, the Padres would be essentially dealing Hand and Cimber for Archer, which is a deal the club would’ve happily made.  Then again, the Padres are so deep in minor league talent that they can afford to move top names like Mejia, Urias, or Quantrill and still have one of the game’s better farm systems.

Scouts from the Padres and Diamondbacks (and, from outside the division, the Phillies and Cubs) watched Archer’s start last Sunday.  A source tells Morosi that at least eight teams have recently been in touch with the Rays about Archer’s availability, and while there still isn’t clear sign Tampa is considering a trade, this deep interest is one of the reasons “a deal involving Archer is more likely now than at any point in recent memory,” Morosi writes.

Here’s more from around the NL West…

  • There’s still no timetable for the Giants to welcome back righty Jeff Samardzija, though it’s not looking particularly promising. Per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle, via Twitter, the veteran hurler is “not returning anytime soon.” Rather, he’ll continue to rest his ailing shoulder before heading out for some amount of rehab work. This continues to be a lost season for the 33-year-old, who owns a 6.25 ERA in 44 2/3 innings
  • Though Samardzija’s ongoing injury issue is one of several less-than-promising signs for the Giants, indications are that they aren’t interested in packing up and waiting for next year. GM Bobby Evans says in a chat with Joel Sherman of the New York Post that the front office is “bent toward helping our current club.”  Though Evans expressed at least some willingness to consider moving bullpen pieces, such a move wouldn’t really serve the team’s interests, particularly after the Giants previously gave up young talent to shed salary.  While the team is still within reasonable striking distance in the NL West, its place in the trade deadline picture remains unclear — though Evans did shut down any thought that the team would make a last-minute decision to make star lefty Madison Bumgarner available.
  • The Dodgers sent scouts to watch pitchers on both the Marlins and Rays when the two Florida rivals faced off last weekend, the Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer reports (Twitter link).  L.A. could have interested in any number of relievers or perhaps even starting pitchers on either roster, given how many Miami and Tampa players have been cited in trade rumors.  Interestingly, Spencer’s tweet was linked to a tweet from Michael J. Duarte of NBC Los Angeles, who said that the Marlins had scouts watching Yadier Alvarez’s most recent Double-A outing.  A consensus top prospect headed into the 2017 season, Alvarez didn’t crack the preseason top-100 lists for Baseball America or MLB.com this year (though Baseball Prospectus still had him 41st) in the wake of an unimpressive season.  Alvarez has continued to struggle in 2018, with a 5.85 ERA and 25 walks in 20 frames for Double-A Tulsa, though he’s still missing a lot of bats with his 100-mph fastball.

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