Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers! Anthony took questions on Roki Sasaki, the Orioles' pitching staff, roles for players like Vaughn Grissom and Jacob Wilson, Kirby Yates' market, trading international bonus pool space, whether Ha-Seong Kim should sign for one year, Marlins' trade options, the remainder of the Padres' offseason, and much more.
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The Marlins Should Be Bailing Out Cash-Strapped Teams (No… Really)
The Marlins have added precisely four players to a 40-man roster that lost 100 games last season. Those four new acquisitions -- infielder Eric Wagaman, catcher Liam Hicks, infielder Max Acosta and first baseman Matt Mervis -- have boosted their currently NL-low payroll by ... well, zero, basically. Wagaman signed a split big league deal as a free agent. Hicks was a Rule 5 pick. Acosta came over in the Jake Burger trade. Mervis was swapped for Vidal Brujan after the latter was designated for assignment in Miami.
The only team currently projected for a lower payroll than the Marlins is the Athletics, and the A's have been active enough this winter that it still seems likely they'll make an addition or two and leapfrog over the Fish. (A's GM David Forst has already gone on record to say he's hopeful of another addition or two.)
Right now, the Marlins project for a $67MM payroll, per RosterResource. Their projected CBT number is $84MM. Both numbers are due largely to the $12MM owed to the since-released Avisail Garcia, whose four-year contract concludes in 2025.
Even by the Marlins' standards, the 2025 payroll is currently dipping to a new low when compared to recent seasons. Miami has trotted out payrolls of $84MM, $110MM and $106MM, respectively over the past three seasons. That's not much, of course, but those numbers are lightyears higher than the current projection. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has suggested that the Marlins, like the A's, may need to spend some additional funds to retain their revenue-sharing status. They haven't been as stingy as the A's in recent seasons, but the Fish certainly aren't a paragon of aggressive roster maneuvering. Miami's recent offseason activity (or lack thereof) doesn't bode well for subsequent additions. Their lone free agent signing last offseason was Tim Anderson on a one-year, $5MM deal.
Miami did spend a combined $25MM on Jean Segura and Johnny Cueto the prior season, though that was under a different front office regime. Second-year president of baseball operations Peter Bendix has made it abundantly clear -- through actions rather than words -- that he had zero faith in the roster he inherited returning to contention after a surprise postseason berth in 2023.
The Fish waited barely more than a month into the 2024 season before trading Luis Arraez to the Padres, and when the deadline rolled around they traded away a staggering nine more players who'd opened the season on the roster. In a span of just three months, Bendix traded nearly 40% of his Opening Day roster (including JT Chargois and Huascar Brazoban, who were only off the Opening Day roster due to injury and visa issues, respectively.) Had Jesus Luzardo not been injured, Miami would likely have traded 11 of 26 players from the Opening Day club.
Given those trends, there's little reason to think the Marlins will spend any meaningful money on the upcoming player payroll. And while the notion of "buying" prospects is suggested far, far more than it is actually put into practice -- so much so that I'm often reluctant to dedicate much time thinking about the concept at all. However, given not only the specific position in which the Marlins find themselves but the broader context of this individual offseason, it feels like the Marlins are missing an opportunity if they're not more seriously trying to drive this type of transaction.
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MLB Mailbag: Cubs, Padres, Reds, Cardinals, Stroman, Hoffman
This week's mailbag gets into the Cubs' remaining payroll space, how MLBTR's arbitration projections came to be, what the Padres, Reds, and Rangers might do, possible fits for Marcus Stroman, the Jeff Hoffman situation, what the Cardinals could get for Erick Fedde or Ryan Helsley, and much more.
Walter asks:
With roughly $45 million left until the bottom threshold, how do you see Jed Hoyer spending it? Do you think he is being handcuffed because he is in the last year of his contract?
No, I can't see the Ricketts family putting boundaries on Hoyer because of his lame-duck status. According to RosterResource, the Cubs' CBT payroll sits at $198MM, which indeed puts them $43MM shy of the first threshold. I'm not convinced Hoyer will spend all of that, but he figures to spend a good portion.
The Cubs waited out Cody Bellinger until late February last year to get the short-term deal they craved. It's not hard to see the Cubs being opportunistic on Alex Bregman, Jack Flaherty, or Nick Pivetta should they move into short-term deal territory. The Cubs giving $5MM to Colin Rea probably reduces the odds of pursuing another starting pitcher, however.
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The Cardinals Are Amidst A Half-Measure Offseason
The Cardinals have made zero trades this offseason. Two months ago, that would've been a huge surprise. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak declared at the end of the season that the team would cut MLB payroll and give consistent reps to younger players. Seven of MLBTR's Top 35 trade candidates entering the winter were Cardinals.
All of them remain Cardinals with less than a month until pitchers and catchers report. They're not all analogous situations. In at least three cases, the Cards themselves were probably taken aback. Willson Contreras told the team he had no interest in waiving his no-trade clause. Sonny Gray has also expressed an interest in staying rather than waiving his own no-trade rights. Nolan Arenado is reportedly more open to moving, though he used his no-trade clause to kill a potential trade to Houston.
Mozeliak has openly stated the organization is trying to deal Arenado. The baseball operations leader has called that the simplest way to get the team's payroll where they want it to be. That could still come together, but it has proven tougher to orchestrate than the front office seemingly envisioned. The Astros have already moved on. Other teams are reportedly balking at taking a big portion of the $64MM remaining on the third baseman's contract. Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote last week that talks on Arenado had stalled.
Those instances are beyond Mozeliak's control beyond the fact that he was willing to include no-trade clauses in Contreras' and Gray's free agent deals. (Arenado received his NTC from the Rockies when he signed his extension in 2019.) The front office probably expected those veterans would be eager to move rather than waiting out one or more transitional seasons. In that sense, the Cards are in an unenviable spot.
The most perplexing part of their offseason is that they haven't made any moves in response to those roadblocks. Their offseason has consisted of buying out Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Keynan Middleton while claiming depth reliever Bailey Horn off waivers. That needs to change between now and Opening Day.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
In order to keep with our growing base of subscribers, we'll be offering a second weekly Front Office subscriber chat taking place on Monday afternoons. I'll be hosting these Monday chats, which will come in addition to my weekly free chat on Tuesday afternoons, Mark Polishuk's free weekend chats and Anthony Franco's subscriber-only chat on Friday afternoon. None of those other live Q&A formats are going anywhere.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers! Anthony took questions on the Reds' budget, Dylan Cease trade proposals, the Brewers' lineup, Nathaniel Lowe's extension candidacy, Nick Pivetta landing spots, the frequency of relievers getting rotation chances, the Braves' ceiling, and much more.
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The Past, Present, And Future Of Sports Investments (Sponsored)
The following is a sponsored post from Finlete.
For as long as anyone can remember, sports fans have sought to grow closer to the games, teams, and players they so passionately support, investing everything from their time to their emotions to their money. From Duke University students camping out in tents to get prime seats, to baseball fans buying up rookie card stacks, to football fans purchasing real stakes in Real Madrid CF and the Green Bay Packers. Of course the internet and smartphones changed the game, with fantasy sports’ popularity exploding about 20 years ago and sports betting exploding over the last 10 years.
Today, how we spend money on sports continues to rapidly evolve, including the ability to invest in athletes’ careers in exchange for a piece of their future earnings. It’s a corner of the sports world that’s starting to make some serious noise and sports investment platform Finlete is a key player.
In 2024, Finlete bookended the year by giving fans the opportunity to invest in the careers of MLB prospects Echedry Vargas and Leonardo Bernal.
Vargas, ranked #16 in the Miami Marlins system (source MLB.com), is a Dominican middle infielder who boasts an aggressive approach and an impressive power-speed combo that ultimately made him a key piece in Miami’s return for Jake Burger this winter. Bernal, the most recent athlete to join Finlete, plies his trade behind the dish as the #9 prospect in St. Louis’ system (source MLB.com) with a keen eye, strong arm, and lots of loud contact.
For potential investors who may lean more mainstream, 3-time AL All-Star Emmanuel Clase became the first Major Leaguer to sign with Finlete in the middle of his historic season and give his legion of fans a shot to join his journey financially. As far as big name investing goes, it doesn’t get much bigger than a certified Cy Young candidate in the prime of his career.
With a growing slate of professional athletes set to be announced in 2025, Finlete is evolving quickly and building upon the foundation set by some pioneers in the sports investment world.
Fantex, which operated from 2012-2016 and allowed fans to buy and sell securities tied to athletes’ contracts, is a great example of being ahead of your time. Fans were able to invest in the careers of Vernon Davis, Alshon Jeffery, and other NFL players, but this was before the tidal waves of crowdfunding and alternative investments rolled in.
Since then, investing in athletes’ careers has been dominated by private hedge funds such as Big League Advance (BLA) and X10 – the former founded by an ex-MLB player and the latter founded by ex-Fantex execs. Not everyone is eligible to invest in a hedge fund and even those who qualify may not have access. It’s exclusive and restrictive. That’s where new companies like Finlete come in, applying lessons learned from Fantex while democratizing access to the kind of investing BLA and X10 have been doing over the last 5-10 years.
For example, BLA successfully signed several future MLB All-Stars including Elly De La Cruz, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the early days of their professional baseball careers, well before they became household names.
The model is simple: Pay prospects an upfront payment in exchange for a percentage of their potential future MLB earnings.
For the athlete, it’s cash now for cash later. It’s giving up a small piece of their potential upside in exchange for more security now. And it’s risk-free in the sense that it’s not a loan, the athlete only owes the investor money if they make it to the big leagues and even then it’s only a small percentage of their MLB salary. The cash up front also helps increase their chances of making it pro.
Elly De La Cruz is a prototypical example. He signed with the Cincinnati Reds in 2018 for $65,000, a fairly small account considering these signing bonuses range from $10,000 to over $9 million. The additional funds from BLA allowed him to supplement that signing bonus and his meager Minor League Baseball (MiLB) salary, which helped him cover basic expenses, finance his training, support his family, and better prepare himself for the grind of the long seasons ahead. The funds often also mean the player can focus on baseball year-round instead of needing to work another job in the offseason.
On the other side of the deal, BLA received a percentage of Elly’s potential future MLB salary. Whereas the player risks losing some upside by having to give up a piece of their earnings if they make it in the big leagues, the investor – BLA in this case – risks loss of capital, as it’s an investment, not a loan, and there’s no guarantee MiLB players will make it to or stick around at the MLB level.
Finlete believes athletes signing these deals with hedge funds is a missed opportunity though. By signing with Finlete instead, athletes can let people from all walks of life be the investors and in so doing build a strong following of extremely dedicated fans. By linking athletes and fans financially, Finlete is taking fan engagement to the next level, as the fans the athletes garner through Finlete will remain fans of theirs for their entire careers, regardless of what team they play for.
While having disposable income always makes investing easier, acquiring a financial stake in a real athlete’s career is exceedingly accessible for the general public. Finlete investors, for example, are able to invest for as little as $300. Bonus shares on the platform are also available for investments of $1,000 or more.
This is a lot like the fractional investment opportunities that have taken shape in other industries. Want to invest in art? Try Masterworks. Real estate? Go with Fundrise or Happy Nest. Tech startups? Look at Wefunder or Republic. The common denominator is that it’s easier than ever to invest in whatever piques your interest. The question now is – what comes next?
For those who choose Finlete, the answer is more. More athletes, more experiences, more perks, more ways to engage with athletes, and ultimately more opportunities to combine a love of the game with real investing. The future of sports investment is here and it’s an exciting outlook for 2025.
MLB Mailbag: Lux, Giants, Orioles, Rockies, Blue Jays
Today's mailbag gets into the Gavin Lux trade, the Yankees' infield, the Giants' ability to add a bat, how the Orioles could trade for a top starter, what a Blake Street Bombers Part 2 lineup could look like for the Rockies, why some free agents don't sign in Toronto, why the Astros aren't getting more flak for trading Kyle Tucker, and more.
Kyle asks:
What's your take on the Lux trade to Cincinnati? As a Mariners fan I'm a bit irked they wouldn't beat the Reds offer (M's have comp A pick #33, Reds traded #37 and a prospect for Lux). Are the M's being too risk averse?
Leonard asks:
I heard on MLB TV that the Reds really like Gavin Lux’s versatility to play multiple positions. Isn’t that one of the reasons the Dodgers traded him? (Besides the surplus of middle infielders). Lux is an average 2B. He couldn’t make the throws from SS. He didn’t show that he could play 3B or the OF well enough, either. Comments?
Jeff asks:
After the Gavin Lux trade, how much playing time do you think Noelvi Marte gets this year?
Dante asks:
Do you think the Lux trade for the Reds was in anticipation of another move, something like a trade from infield depth for Luis Robert? I understand the desire to add good players, but they do seem to have stockpiled a lot of infielders, and the team seems to need some pop in the middle of the lineup.
Elliott asks:
After the Gavin Lux acquisition, who is the best fit for the Reds' next move? Probably a right-handed hitting outfielder at this point?
Colin asks:
I have always liked Gavin Lux although he has not yet developed into the star he was projected to be. That said, I wonder if the trade clears the way for Mookie Betts to return to his more natural position of second base with Rojas and Kim splitting duty at shortstop? I would note too that it clears a roster spot for Sasaki, if they are fortunate enough to sign him. Your thoughts?
Jason asks:
What do you make of the Gavin Lux trade? Did the Dodgers have enough of him or did they like Alex Freeland enough to platoon with Kim?
Lux is a 27-year-old platoon second baseman. He saved his season with a hot streak that I'd say ran from July 11th through September 4th. In that period, Lux posted a huge 181 wRC+ in 161 plate appearances. He then posted a 80 wRC+ in 62 plate appearances for the rest of the regular season, adding another 43 postseason PA with a .177/.286/.294 line.
Prior to his eight-week hot streak, Lux was one of the ten worst-hitting regular position players in baseball over a span of 264 plate appearances. On the season, Lux was heavily shielded against left-handed pitching, facing southpaws only 10.3% of the time. That's for good reason - he posted an absymal 17 wRC+ against lefties in those 50 PA.
In comments on MLB.com, Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall pointed to this October 4th article from Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs to help explain Lux's second half efforts to swing harder and do more damage. Lux's changes were real; he clearly started swinging harder. You can read more about those changes in this August 8th article from Fabian Ardaya at The Athletic.
Lux has a 108 wRC+ against righties over 1,210 plate appearances in his career. The eight-week streak isn't enough to convince me he's changed, especially since he struggled again for the last 105 PA of his season.
All that said, Lux is a 27-year-old former first rounder. There is upside here where swinging harder leads to a 120 wRC+, he holds his own against lefties as he did in 2022, and he becomes a 4-5 WAR player and borderline star. Maybe he can become adequate at positions than other second base, too. I don't think the Reds are likely to get that out of him when the Dodgers couldn't, but perhaps being back in the midwest and out of the spotlight will help.
Defensively, Krall said Lux will play second base, some outfield, and DH, and the team would "give him a look" at third base and shortstop. Lux famously had issues making the throw from shortstop; it's hard to see how third base would be any better. He showed seventh percentile arm strength this year, probably ruling out right field. Lux dabbled in left field as recently as 2022, so I could see him getting time there. The idea of Lux being versatile is overstated the way it once was when Jurickson Profar couldn't find a position. So yes, I agree with what Leonard said in his question above.
As a second baseman, Lux was slightly below-average in Statcast's OAA this year. So I believe what the Reds have in Lux is two affordable years of a platoon second baseman who needs to be on the bench 27% of the time but is capable of a 108 wRC+ against righties. That's a useful player.
But what if I told you there was a free agent, also controllable for two years, who would sign for $3.5MM and could pretty much do the same things as Lux, but has also demonstrated he can play third base well?
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What Could The Padres Expect For Dylan Cease?
The Padres have yet to make a significant move this offseason. San Diego hasn't made a single major league free agent or trade acquisition. It's clear they're hamstrung financially. The complaint filed by Peter Seidler's widow against the late owner's brothers only adds to the overall organizational uncertainty.
If San Diego is going to make any upgrades of note, they'll need to first offload some money. It seems the Padres intend to get below the $241MM luxury tax threshold. RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $244MM. There are a few ways they could try to accomplish that. The ideal scenario would be to offload some of the money owed to Xander Bogaerts or Jake Cronenworth, but trading an underwater deal isn't easy. San Diego could move Luis Arraez but seems to want more value in return than other teams are willing to offer.
As a result, Dylan Cease has been at the periphery of offseason trade rumors. Reporting at the Winter Meetings suggested that the right-hander was available. There hasn't been any indication that they've moved close to a deal in the past month. It seems they're mostly status quo. ESPN's Jeff Passan wrote this week that the Padres have been willing to hear other teams out on Cease, though he doesn't suggest that San Diego is actively shopping him.
Unlike Bogaerts, Arraez and Cronenworth, Cease holds immense trade value. The Padres could demand a significant package while offloading his entire salary. They'd need to weigh that against subtracting arguably their best starter from a rotation that comprises Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish and a host of question marks.
If the Padres decide they're motivated to move Cease within the next two months, what kind of return should they expect? A few trades over the past two offseasons provide some indications about how the market could value him.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers! Anthony took questions on whether the Cubs could extend Kyle Tucker, the Angels/Pete Alonso rumors, Robbie Ray's trade candidacy, whether the Marlins would move Sandy Alcantara, the Yankees' third base options, next moves for the Brewers, and much more.
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