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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers! Anthony took questions on the Reds' budget, Dylan Cease trade proposals, the Brewers' lineup, Nathaniel Lowe's extension candidacy, Nick Pivetta landing spots, the frequency of relievers getting rotation chances, the Braves' ceiling, and much more.

 

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The Past, Present, And Future Of Sports Investments (Sponsored)

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The following is a sponsored post from Finlete.

For as long as anyone can remember, sports fans have sought to grow closer to the games, teams, and players they so passionately support, investing everything from their time to their emotions to their money. From Duke University students camping out in tents to get prime seats, to baseball fans buying up rookie card stacks, to football fans purchasing real stakes in Real Madrid CF and the Green Bay Packers. Of course the internet and smartphones changed the game, with fantasy sports’ popularity exploding about 20 years ago and sports betting exploding over the last 10 years.

Today, how we spend money on sports continues to rapidly evolve, including the ability to invest in athletes’ careers in exchange for a piece of their future earnings. It’s a corner of the sports world that’s starting to make some serious noise and sports investment platform Finlete is a key player.

In 2024, Finlete bookended the year by giving fans the opportunity to invest in the careers of MLB prospects Echedry Vargas and Leonardo Bernal.

Vargas, ranked #16 in the Miami Marlins system (source MLB.com), is a Dominican middle infielder who boasts an aggressive approach and an impressive power-speed combo that ultimately made him a key piece in Miami’s return for Jake Burger this winter. Bernal, the most recent athlete to join Finlete, plies his trade behind the dish as the #9 prospect in St. Louis’ system (source MLB.com) with a keen eye, strong arm, and lots of loud contact.

For potential investors who may lean more mainstream, 3-time AL All-Star Emmanuel Clase became the first Major Leaguer to sign with Finlete in the middle of his historic season and give his legion of fans a shot to join his journey financially. As far as big name investing goes, it doesn’t get much bigger than a certified Cy Young candidate in the prime of his career.

With a growing slate of professional athletes set to be announced in 2025, Finlete is evolving quickly and building upon the foundation set by some pioneers in the sports investment world.

Fantex, which operated from 2012-2016 and allowed fans to buy and sell securities tied to athletes’ contracts, is a great example of being ahead of your time. Fans were able to invest in the careers of Vernon Davis, Alshon Jeffery, and other NFL players, but this was before the tidal waves of crowdfunding and alternative investments rolled in.

Since then, investing in athletes’ careers has been dominated by private hedge funds such as Big League Advance (BLA) and X10 – the former founded by an ex-MLB player and the latter founded by ex-Fantex execs. Not everyone is eligible to invest in a hedge fund and even those who qualify may not have access. It’s exclusive and restrictive. That’s where new companies like Finlete come in, applying lessons learned from Fantex while democratizing access to the kind of investing BLA and X10 have been doing over the last 5-10 years.

For example, BLA successfully signed several future MLB All-Stars including Elly De La Cruz, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the early days of their professional baseball careers, well before they became household names.

The model is simple: Pay prospects an upfront payment in exchange for a percentage of their potential future MLB earnings.

For the athlete, it’s cash now for cash later. It’s giving up a small piece of their potential upside in exchange for more security now. And it’s risk-free in the sense that it’s not a loan, the athlete only owes the investor money if they make it to the big leagues and even then it’s only a small percentage of their MLB salary. The cash up front also helps increase their chances of making it pro.

Elly De La Cruz is a prototypical example. He signed with the Cincinnati Reds in 2018 for $65,000, a fairly small account considering these signing bonuses range from $10,000 to over $9 million. The additional funds from BLA allowed him to supplement that signing bonus and his meager Minor League Baseball (MiLB) salary, which helped him cover basic expenses, finance his training, support his family, and better prepare himself for the grind of the long seasons ahead. The funds often also mean the player can focus on baseball year-round instead of needing to work another job in the offseason.

On the other side of the deal, BLA received a percentage of Elly’s potential future MLB salary. Whereas the player risks losing some upside by having to give up a piece of their earnings if they make it in the big leagues, the investor – BLA in this case – risks loss of capital, as it’s an investment, not a loan, and there’s no guarantee MiLB players will make it to or stick around at the MLB level.

Finlete believes athletes signing these deals with hedge funds is a missed opportunity though. By signing with Finlete instead, athletes can let people from all walks of life be the investors and in so doing build a strong following of extremely dedicated fans. By linking athletes and fans financially, Finlete is taking fan engagement to the next level, as the fans the athletes garner through Finlete will remain fans of theirs for their entire careers, regardless of what team they play for.

While having disposable income always makes investing easier, acquiring a financial stake in a real athlete’s career is exceedingly accessible for the general public. Finlete investors, for example, are able to invest for as little as $300. Bonus shares on the platform are also available for investments of $1,000 or more.

This is a lot like the fractional investment opportunities that have taken shape in other industries. Want to invest in art? Try Masterworks. Real estate? Go with Fundrise or Happy Nest. Tech startups? Look at Wefunder or Republic. The common denominator is that it’s easier than ever to invest in whatever piques your interest. The question now is – what comes next?

For those who choose Finlete, the answer is more. More athletes, more experiences, more perks, more ways to engage with athletes, and ultimately more opportunities to combine a love of the game with real investing. The future of sports investment is here and it’s an exciting outlook for 2025.

MLB Mailbag: Lux, Giants, Orioles, Rockies, Blue Jays

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Today's mailbag gets into the Gavin Lux trade, the Yankees' infield, the Giants' ability to add a bat, how the Orioles could trade for a top starter, what a Blake Street Bombers Part 2 lineup could look like for the Rockies, why some free agents don't sign in Toronto, why the Astros aren't getting more flak for trading Kyle Tucker, and more.

Kyle asks:

What's your take on the Lux trade to Cincinnati? As a Mariners fan I'm a bit irked they wouldn't beat the Reds offer (M's have comp A pick #33, Reds traded #37 and a prospect for Lux). Are the M's being too risk averse?

Leonard asks:

I heard on MLB TV that the Reds really like Gavin Lux’s versatility to play multiple positions. Isn’t that one of the reasons the Dodgers traded him? (Besides the surplus of middle infielders). Lux is an average 2B. He couldn’t make the throws from SS. He didn’t show that he could play 3B or the OF well enough, either. Comments?

Jeff asks:

After the Gavin Lux trade, how much playing time do you think Noelvi Marte gets this year?

Dante asks:

Do you think the Lux trade for the Reds was in anticipation of another move, something like a trade from infield depth for Luis Robert? I understand the desire to add good players, but they do seem to have stockpiled a lot of infielders, and the team seems to need some pop in the middle of the lineup.

Elliott asks:

After the Gavin Lux acquisition, who is the best fit for the Reds' next move? Probably a right-handed hitting outfielder at this point?

Colin asks:

I have always liked Gavin Lux although he has not yet developed into the star he was projected to be. That said, I wonder if the trade clears the way for Mookie Betts to return to his more natural position of second base with Rojas and Kim splitting duty at shortstop? I would note too that it clears a roster spot for Sasaki, if they are fortunate enough to sign him. Your thoughts?

Jason asks:

What do you make of the Gavin Lux trade? Did the Dodgers have enough of him or did they like Alex Freeland enough to platoon with Kim?

Lux is a 27-year-old platoon second baseman.  He saved his season with a hot streak that I'd say ran from July 11th through September 4th.  In that period, Lux posted a huge 181 wRC+ in 161 plate appearances.  He then posted a 80 wRC+ in 62 plate appearances for the rest of the regular season, adding another 43 postseason PA with a .177/.286/.294 line.

Prior to his eight-week hot streak, Lux was one of the ten worst-hitting regular position players in baseball over a span of 264 plate appearances.  On the season, Lux was heavily shielded against left-handed pitching, facing southpaws only 10.3% of the time.  That's for good reason - he posted an absymal 17 wRC+ against lefties in those 50 PA.

In comments on MLB.com, Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall pointed to this October 4th article from Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs to help explain Lux's second half efforts to swing harder and do more damage.  Lux's changes were real; he clearly started swinging harder.  You can read more about those changes in this August 8th article from Fabian Ardaya at The Athletic.

Lux has a 108 wRC+ against righties over 1,210 plate appearances in his career.  The eight-week streak isn't enough to convince me he's changed, especially since he struggled again for the last 105 PA of his season.

All that said, Lux is a 27-year-old former first rounder.  There is upside here where swinging harder leads to a 120 wRC+, he holds his own against lefties as he did in 2022, and he becomes a 4-5 WAR player and borderline star.  Maybe he can become adequate at positions than other second base, too.  I don't think the Reds are likely to get that out of him when the Dodgers couldn't, but perhaps being back in the midwest and out of the spotlight will help.

Defensively, Krall said Lux will play second base, some outfield, and DH, and the team would "give him a look" at third base and shortstop.  Lux famously had issues making the throw from shortstop; it's hard to see how third base would be any better.  He showed seventh percentile arm strength this year, probably ruling out right field.  Lux dabbled in left field as recently as 2022, so I could see him getting time there.  The idea of Lux being versatile is overstated the way it once was when Jurickson Profar couldn't find a position.  So yes, I agree with what Leonard said in his question above.

As a second baseman, Lux was slightly below-average in Statcast's OAA this year.  So I believe what the Reds have in Lux is two affordable years of a platoon second baseman who needs to be on the bench 27% of the time but is capable of a 108 wRC+ against righties.  That's a useful player.

But what if I told you there was a free agent, also controllable for two years, who would sign for $3.5MM and could pretty much do the same things as Lux, but has also demonstrated he can play third base well?

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What Could The Padres Expect For Dylan Cease?

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The Padres have yet to make a significant move this offseason. San Diego hasn't made a single major league free agent or trade acquisition. It's clear they're hamstrung financially. The complaint filed by Peter Seidler's widow against the late owner's brothers only adds to the overall organizational uncertainty.

If San Diego is going to make any upgrades of note, they'll need to first offload some money. It seems the Padres intend to get below the $241MM luxury tax threshold. RosterResource calculates their CBT number around $244MM. There are a few ways they could try to accomplish that. The ideal scenario would be to offload some of the money owed to Xander Bogaerts or Jake Cronenworth, but trading an underwater deal isn't easy. San Diego could move Luis Arraez but seems to want more value in return than other teams are willing to offer.

As a result, Dylan Cease has been at the periphery of offseason trade rumors. Reporting at the Winter Meetings suggested that the right-hander was available. There hasn't been any indication that they've moved close to a deal in the past month. It seems they're mostly status quo. ESPN's Jeff Passan wrote this week that the Padres have been willing to hear other teams out on Cease, though he doesn't suggest that San Diego is actively shopping him.

Unlike Bogaerts, Arraez and Cronenworth, Cease holds immense trade value. The Padres could demand a significant package while offloading his entire salary. They'd need to weigh that against subtracting arguably their best starter from a rotation that comprises Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish and a host of question marks.

If the Padres decide they're motivated to move Cease within the next two months, what kind of return should they expect? A few trades over the past two offseasons provide some indications about how the market could value him.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers! Anthony took questions on whether the Cubs could extend Kyle Tucker, the Angels/Pete Alonso rumors, Robbie Ray's trade candidacy, whether the Marlins would move Sandy Alcantara, the Yankees' third base options, next moves for the Brewers, and much more.

 

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Which Teams Can Still Use Nolan Arenado?

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The Cardinals expected to have traded Nolan Arenado by now. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak suggested at the Winter Meetings that a deal could come together within a week or two. That probably would've been the case had the eight-time All-Star not used his no-trade clause to kill talks about a move to the Astros.

That leaves St. Louis in an awkward position. They've publicly shopped Arenado. He's seemingly amenable to waiving his no-trade clause in certain circumstances. For whatever reason, he wasn't interested in going to Houston last month. Subsequent reporting indicated he could consider the Astros in the future, but the team moved on to Christian Walker almost immediately and no longer needs a corner infielder. The Cardinals need to look elsewhere.

Will Sammon and Katie Woo of the Athletic reported this week that there's been minimal traction on an Arenado trade since the Houston talks collapsed. The Yankees, long a speculative fit, are apparently not as interested as it first seemed. The YES Network's Jack Curry pushed back against that notion last week. Jon Heyman also suggested in a Bleacher Report live stream yesterday that the Yankees were more likely to stick with DJ LeMahieu than to go after Arenado.

Where does that leave Mozeliak and company?

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MLB Mailbag: Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Mariners, Torkelson, Alonso, Bregman

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Welcome to the first mailbag of 2025!  In this one we get into what the Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, and Mariners might do, the future of first basemen Spencer Torkelson and Pete Alonso, outfield options for the Astros, various Alex Bregman destinations, and much more.

John asks:

Braves fan here wondering if the Braves will re-sign AJ Minter?

Bill asks:

With market choices dwindling whom might Atlanta pursue in the pitcher/outfield categories? Or will they rely on young pitching hopes and current outfield options?

Phillip asks:

What do you see the Atlanta Braves doing? We need another outfielder, starting pitcher, and 2 relief pitchers. Are we going to be thrifty or are we going for quality?

Bruce asks:

Can you predict what the usually unpredictable Alex Anthopolous will acquire to play LF and SS and SP down the 2025 Atlanta Braves?

In attempting to guess how the rest of the Braves' offseason will go, it may be helpful to first project their payroll.  President of baseball operations and GM Alex Anthopoulos said in October payroll would be going up.

The Braves' actions thus far this offseason do not match those of a team planning to increase payroll: declining Travis d'Arnaud's option, dumping Jorge Soler, moving money around with the Reynaldo Lopez and Aaron Bummer extensions (though not in a way that helps their CBT payroll), non-tendering Ramon Laureano, and most importantly, failing to sign any notable free agents.  It's also true that Anthopoulos' October comments came before the Braves learned more information about the timelines of Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, and Joe Jimenez.  I could see how that would affect payroll allocation, but not why it would affect the total payroll.

The Braves appear to have a $220MM CBT payroll at present, and on December 11th David O'Brien of The Athletic wrote that the Braves "don’t seem inclined to go too far above that $241 million [luxury tax] threshold."  That's after running a $276MM CBT payroll in 2024.  Perhaps in his October "payroll is going up" comments, Anthopoulos was threading a needle where the team's 26-man Opening Day actual payroll will increase, but their CBT payroll will not.  Last year's Opening Day actual payroll was $222MM and the team is at $197MM at present.  It's also likely the team would like to keep powder dry for midseason additions.

Given O'Brien's comment, we probably shouldn't project much more than $25MM in additional AAV to be added this offseason.  The second tax threshold of $261MM could be a ceiling on the CBT payroll.  So how might Anthopoulos improve the team with many major names now off the board?

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat this afternoon, exclusively for Front Office subscribers!

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Exploring A Potential Pablo Lopez Trade

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It's been a quiet offseason for the Twins as the front office faces payroll constraints for a second straight offseason. Minnesota's signing of Carlos Correa and extension for Pablo Lopez in the 2022-23 offseason -- among other moves -- pushed the club's payroll up into the $150-160MM range. Both deals came just months after owner Jim Pohlad took a step back as his nephew, Joe Pohlad, took on a far more prominent role. That ownership shuffle, coupled with the long-term nature of those deals, made it look like there'd be a lasting bump in payroll.

Clearly, that hasn't been the case. Amid uncertainty regarding the team's television broadcast rights, ownership slashed payroll back down to the $130MM range for the 2024 season. The Twins largely sat out the 2023-24 offseason, with their largest moves coming via the trade market (dealing Jorge Polanco to Seattle) and in the bargain aisle of free agency (a $5.25MM deal for Carlos Santana being their most expensive). At the end of the 2024 season, Joe Pohlad announced his intent to explore a potential sale of the team.

That's led to even more uncertainty and inflexibility with the budget this offseason, as evidenced by the Twins' complete lack of activity. RosterResource projects the Twins' payroll at about $142MM. Ownership would like that back into the $130MM range again. It's expected that at some point they'll trade righty Chris Paddack, whose $7.5MM salary looks quite affordable when juxtaposed with the aggressive market for starters this winter. They'll shop Christian Vazquez but would need to eat some of his $10MM salary. A trade of their excellent utilityman, Willi Castro, could also be explored.

Speculation regarding the possibility of larger-scale deals was inevitable, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said early in the offseason that the team views Correa, Lopez and Byron Buxton as "key" players to the team's 2025 outlook. Falvey has emphasized that the Twins are intent on contending in 2025, even as it looks like he'll be forced to find ways to trim player payroll before making a single addition.

A Correa trade always seemed far-fetched. He's owed $128MM over the next four years and has a full no-trade clause. Buxton also has full no-trade protection. However, the recent report from ESPN's Jeff Passan that the Twins have at least listened to offers on Lopez presents a far more compelling thought exercise. Lopez's contract is teeming with surplus value in a way that isn't true -- or isn't as true, anyway -- of the Twins' other most expensive players.

Trading Lopez would ignite swift backlash from an already frustrated and put-off fanbase. At the same time, the huge return and the potential avenues for restructuring the team in the wake of such a surprising deal are compelling enough that it's understandable if the Twins perform due diligence to at least see what the market might bear.

Let's dive into an admittedly very hypothetical look at why a Lopez trade could actually appeal to the Twins, who could be involved, and how the Twins could proceed (and possibly improve) in the aftermath.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers!

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