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Where Can The Orioles Turn For A Top-End Starter?

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The Orioles made one necessary rotation upgrade this week, signing Tomoyuki Sugano to a $13MM deal on Monday. That should be the first of multiple starting pitching acquisitions. Sugano projects as a back-of-the-rotation arm at this stage of his career. The O's need for an ace persists.

Baltimore addressed that last winter via trade. The O's acquired one year of control over Corbin Burnes for Joey Ortiz and DL Hall in what was GM Mike Elias' boldest trade to date. Burnes pitched as well as the O's could've expected, turning in a 2.92 ERA across 32 regular season starts to earn a fifth-place finish in Cy Young balloting. He fired eight innings of one-run ball in his lone postseason appearance. Unfortunately, the offense cratered down the stretch and scored a grand total of one run in their two playoff games. The Royals swept them by respective 1-0 and 2-1 margins.

Burnes is a free agent, leaving Elias and his staff on the hunt for another top-end arm. Where could they turn?

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MLB Mailbag: Burnes, Soto, Brewers, Dodgers, A’s, Astros

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Today's mailbag gets into where Corbin Burnes might go, why we write about players' salaries, whether Juan Soto will opt out, how the Brewers might sort out their outfield, chances of the Dodgers signing various free agents, and what's next for the A's.

Please note that this mailbag was initially published shortly before news of the Cody Bellinger trade broke.  I'm sure we'll get into that trade in the next mailbag, but since some of the Bellinger material in the mailbag was usurped by the trade, I've added several bonus Astros questions and answers to the end.

Joel asks:

Why is there not even a shred of a suggestion anywhere that the Mets have interest in Corbin Burnes? If they were willing to pay dinosaurs like Scherzer and Verlander, why not pay Burnes? Otherwise, they'll lose a lot of games 7-5.

Tony asks:

Corbin Burnes will sign with ?

Bud asks:

As a Giant fan it’s a little concerning hearing the rumors of Corbin Burns nearing a deal with the team and then a week or more of quiet. I was hoping for more moves…

Neil asks:

Will Giants sign Burnes or will it be another pitcher?

David Stearns was the GM of the Brewers when the team drafted Burnes in the fourth round out of Saint Mary's College of California in 2016.  With the Mets needing three starters this winter, it was natural to expect Stearns to be interested.  While it's true Stearns topped out at $15.5MM for a free agent starter with the Brewers (Jhoulys Chacin in 2016), it's also true that the Mets have way more money than the Brewers.

Even a comparison to Stearns' 2023-24 offseason would not be fair, because that was, as my colleague Darragh McDonald wrote, "a sort of bridge year."  Hence the relatively affordable additions of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Adrian Houser.

To date, the Mets have made the ownership-driven decision to sign Juan Soto to a record-shattering contract, while Stearns has added Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas on two-year deals (if Holmes uses his opt-out) to help fill out the rotation.  Kodai Senga barely pitched this year, and David Peterson's 21 starts matched a career high.  Paul Blackburn is a back of the rotation type who has battled injuries, including October back surgery.  The rotation lacks reliability, which would likely be solved by Burnes.

Stearns seems more interested in the trade market of late, showing interest in Garrett Crochet and Luis Castillo this month.  Speculatively, they could go after Dylan Cease as well.  On December 7th, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote that the Mets had interest in Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, and Nick Pivetta.  Around that time, Tim Healey of Newsday wrote that the Mets were not in on Max Fried and are not expected to land Burnes.  It would seem that Stearns simply does not like the return on investment of huge pitching contracts (at least for the players available this winter) and does not want to spend $250MM+ on Burnes.

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Finlete Offers Fans The Opportunity To Acquire A Piece Of Emmanuel Clase’s MLB Salary (Sponsored)

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The following is a sponsored post from Finlete.

As anyone who watched the Cleveland Guardians this past season can attest to, entrusting the ninth inning to a lights-out closer like Emmanuel Clase is about as good as it gets. For the Guardians, it’s a competitive edge that few other teams can match. For fans, it’s a reason to rise from your seat. For Clase, it further solidifies his surging trajectory as one of the best closers of all-time – a fact that leaves him well-positioned to become one of the highest paid relievers in the game.

Finlete, a new sports investment platform, has partnered with Clase to offer fans the chance to invest in his career and get a piece of his MLB salary in exchange. Investors will receive their first dividend in the middle of the 2025 MLB season.

Clase represents the second athlete and first active Major Leaguer to sign a future earnings contract with Finlete, following Marlins prospect Echedry Vargas earlier this year. The company expects to launch several more athletes in 2025. Fans can currently get in on the ground floor of this exciting, SEC-compliant platform.

You may be asking yourself, what’s in it for Emmanuel? Well, the answers are clear. For starters, Finlete is raising capital for Clase, which he can spend on his family, offseason training, and his own investment goals. He also benefits from Finlete by forging a connection with a rapidly growing community of fan-investors who are first and foremost fans of his, regardless of what team he plays for. Those who invest have every incentive to support his career from both an emotional and financial standpoint every step of the way. Game in, game out. Season in, season out. Through Finlete, Clase is building a devoted fanbase of uniquely invested supporters.

Let’s look back at the major milestones notched by Clase during the 2024 MLB season:

  • 3-time AL Reliever of the Month
  • 3rd straight All-Star appearance
  • 3rd straight year leading AL in Saves
  • 2nd All-MLB 1st Team honors
  • 2nd Mariano Rivera Reliever of the Year Award
  • 1st reliever to finish top 3 in Cy Young voting since 2008
  • 5th lowest single-season ERA in MLB history (0.61)
  • Became Cleveland’s all-time Saves leader (157)
  • Set a Cleveland record for Saves in a season (47)
  • Converted 34 Saves in a row

All in all, it was a banner season for the 26-year old, and one of the most dominating ever recorded in MLB history.

Now let’s talk finances. Currently, Clase is locked into a team-friendly contract extension with Cleveland that he signed in 2022. Over the remainder of the contract, he’s set to receive base salaries of:

  • 2024: $2.9 million
  • 2025: $4.9 million
  • 2026: $6.4 million
  • 2027: $10 million (club option)
  • 2028: $10 million (club option)

The contract also includes the following clauses:

  • 2027 club option includes a $2M buyout
  • 2028 club option includes a $1M buyout
  • Cy Young Award Bonus Structure
    • 1st Place: $250K
    • 2nd or 3rd Place: $150K
    • 4th or 5th Place: $75K
  • Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman Reliever of the Year Award: $100K
  • All-Star: $100K
  • ALCS MVP: $50K
  • World Series MVP: $100K
  • $500,000 for 200 innings pitched or 200 appearances from 2022-2026
  • Trade Assignment Bonus: $1M

Thanks to his excellence at the back end of the Cleveland bullpen, it should come as no surprise that Clase has earned nearly every major possible incentive in his contract.

Given that he’s now entering the prime of his career age-wise, barring health issues or a sudden drop in effectiveness, he should be in a strong position to become one of the highest-paid relief pitchers when he reaches free agency in 2029 (assuming his 2027 and 2028 club options are picked up).

Those who invest in Clase’s career through Finlete will get a piece of his earnings for the rest of his career. That starts with the $30+ million he currently has left on his contract and gets even more exciting once he reaches free agency. The greater his success on the field between now and then, the greater the size of his next contract will likely be, and the greater the potential return for investors.

The minimum investment is under $400 and Finlete is currently offering up to 25% bonus shares when you invest today. Additionally, investors are eligible to receive exclusive bonus perks such as a baseball or baseball card signed by Clase and a special baseball trip package during the upcoming MLB season.

The world of sports investing is changing rapidly, that much is clear. The line between fan and investor is blurring, and Finlete is at the forefront of it all. This is your chance to join a superstar athlete on their journey in a meaningful and potentially lucrative way. See the game from a totally new perspective and own a tangible piece of the action.

Welcome to the future. Welcome to Finlete. To learn more about this new sports investment platform, visit finlete.com today.

Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers! Anthony discussed the Winter Meetings' biggest activity and the recent trades of Kyle Tucker, Andrés Giménez and Devin Williams. He touched on what's next for the Guardians, Pirates, Giants and Angels, among others, and weighed in on whether Willy Adames and Matt Chapman form the best left side infield duo in MLB.

 

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Glide Into 2025 With Exciting Hockey Matchups On Amazon Prime (Sponsored)

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Monday Night Hockey Broadcasts EXCLUSIVELY on Amazon Prime!

With hockey season in full swing, there’s no better way to experience the thrill of the game than with Amazon Prime’s exclusive Monday Night Hockey broadcasts. If you’re a fan of fast-paced action, nail-biting moments, and electrifying goals, you won’t want to miss what Prime has lined up this season.

Sign up here to ensure you don’t miss out.

Premier Matchups:

Throughout the remainder of 2024, Prime Video will showcase a lineup of games that are not only crucial for playoff standings but also highlight fierce rivalries and thrilling storylines.

Here’s a sneak peek at some of the standout matchups you can look forward to:

  • Monday, December 16, 2024: Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers: Another chance to see the high-flying Oilers as they face the Panthers in what could be a high-
    scoring affair.
  • Monday, December 23, 2024: San Jose Sharks vs. Vancouver Canucks: The Sharks and Canucks will battle for crucial points as the holiday season heats up. Expect
    intensity and skilled play from both sides.
  • Monday, December 30, 2024: Nashville Predators vs. Winnipeg Jets: As the calendar year ends, this matchup could have significant implications for both teams’
    playoff aspirations.

Exclusive Features for Prime Members

In addition to the thrilling matchups, Amazon Prime offers features that enhance your viewing experience. Prime members can enjoy:

  • Multiple Camera Angles: Choose your perspective with various camera views, giving you control over how you watch the game.
  • Real-Time Stats and Insights: Stay informed with up-to-the-minute statistics and expert commentary that bring context to the action on the ice.
  • Post-Game Analysis: Dive deeper into the game with post-match breakdowns and highlights that analyze the key moments and decisions.

Join the Community:

Watching hockey through Amazon Prime isn’t just about the games; it’s about being part of a community of passionate fans. Engage with fellow viewers through the platform’s social media channels, where you can share your thoughts, predictions, and reactions during and after games. Join discussions, participate in polls, and celebrate your team’s victories alongside others who share your enthusiasm.

Sign Up and Tune In:

If you’re not already a Prime member, there’s no better time to join. With a wealth of content beyond hockey—including movies, TV shows, music, and more—you’ll find endless entertainment options at your fingertips. Plus, with Prime’s fast shipping and exclusive deals, you’ll enjoy numerous perks that make membership worthwhile.

So grab your snacks, settle in on your couch, and get ready to cheer for your team. This hockey season, let Amazon Prime be your go-to destination for all the action on the ice. Join the community, enjoy the games, and make Monday nights the highlight of your week!

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This is a sponsored post from Amazon Prime.

Juan Soto’s Hall Of Fame Track

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This article is brought to you by Stathead.  Stathead Baseball is your all-access pass to the Baseball Reference database – a baseball search engine that can answer virtually any question, build custom leaderboards, and allow you to browse Baseball Reference ad-free. Try it for free with a one month free trial.

Juan Soto’s free agency was the offseason’s biggest storyline for good reason. It concluded Sunday evening with a colossal 15-year, $765MM deal with the Mets, which is now official. Soto brings with him a résumé that’ll almost certainly send him to Cooperstown in a couple decades.

Soto wouldn’t be a Hall of Famer if he retired tomorrow. He doesn’t have the requisite 10 seasons of major league action for consideration and he obviously hasn’t accrued HOF-caliber counting stats in just seven years. Yet he’s about as much of a lock for future induction as a player can possibly get by the time he turns 26.

The accolades are already beginning to stack up. Soto has yet to win an MVP award, but he’s finished in the top 10 in five of his six full seasons. He has a trio of top five placements. He’s been named to the All-Star Game four years running and would’ve gotten a fifth nod had the Midsummer Classic been played in 2020. Soto carries an ongoing streak of five consecutive Silver Slugger awards.

The statistical profile is eye-popping. Through his first 936 career games, Soto is a .285/.421/.532 hitter. The .953 OPS puts him in rarified air. Soto is tied with Todd Helton for 23rd on the career OPS leaderboard. That was enough to get Helton, who played his home games at Coors Field at a time when offense was much higher around the league, into Cooperstown. Helton had a career 133 OPS+ after adjusting for the park and league setting. Soto is rocking a 160 OPS+ despite the identical raw slash line.

Players with this kind of rate production are locks for the Hall of Fame unless they taint their case with performance-enhancing drug ties. 19 of the top 25 hitters in career OPS are Hall of Famers. Aaron Judge, Mike Trout and Soto are still playing. The only retired hitters among that group who aren’t in Cooperstown: Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez and Mark McGwire. Needless to say, they’re not excluded because their numbers weren’t good enough.

A .953 OPS is well above the general bar for induction. Most players who are in the top 100 are Hall of Famers. Landing among the top 75 makes a hitter a near-lock (barring PED connections). Even if Soto lost .050 points of OPS over the rest of his career — which seems unlikely — he’d still be above the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts.

Any kind of precipitous drop shouldn’t happen soon. There are plenty of Hall of Famers whose production plummeted in the final three to five seasons of their careers. Even if Soto doesn’t avoid that fate, the short-term numbers are more likely to continue climbing than fall. He’s arguably at the beginning of his prime. This past season was probably the best full season of his career. He topped 40 homers for the first time, finished one RBI off his career high, and set a new best with 7.9 wins above replacement (bWAR). Soto’s rate stats were unquestionably better in the shortened 2020 season, but this was as effective as he’s been over any 162-game schedule.

Youth was one of the biggest selling points in his record-setting free agent trip. Very few hitters have been this productive through their mid-20s. Soto has 201 career homers, tied for seventh all time through a player’s age-25 season. He’s 15th in runs batted in through the same age. Among hitters with at least 2000 plate appearances before their 26th birthday, Soto is 12th in on-base percentage. Of the 11 players above him, only Frank Thomas has played in the last 50 years. This kind of plate discipline so early in a hitter’s career is truly generational.

MLB Mailbag: Vlad Jr., Yankees, Seiya Suzuki, Sasaki, Giants

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We (Steve Adams and Tim Dierkes) are on the scene at the Hilton Anatole in Dallas for Day 2 of the Winter Meetings.  At the time of this writing, Tuesday has been quiet in terms of completed deals, but plenty of action is yet to come.  We carved out some time from meandering the lobby to field subscriber questions on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s potential contract, what the Yankees might do after losing out on Juan Soto, the Cubs and the Seiya Suzuki trade situation, the idea of signing Roki Sasaki to an extension, what's next for the Giants, and much more.

Jeff asks: 

Jays fan question - if 26 year old Soto is worth 765M, isn't 26 year old free agent Vlad Jr now worth ~500M? How bad has Ross Atkins bungled his window to sign Vlad at a more reasonable price, over several years of dithering? All the talk had been a Devers comp in the mid-300s, but that ship has surely sailed, right?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s likely rising price tag was a big topic of conversation around the lobby of the MLB Winter Meetings in Dallas Monday night.

It's worth noting that Guerrero will turn 27 shortly in advance of his first free agent season, as opposed to Juan Soto spending the entire first year of his new deal at the age of 26.  We have rarely seen a prominent free agent hit the market at 27, perhaps with the exception of Carlos Correa's weird three-year post-lockout contract.  Otherwise you're looking at international free agents like Jose Abreu or Seiya Suzuki, or Cody Bellinger who took a one-year deal at that point.

Steve and I spoke to our esteemed former colleague Ben Nicholson-Smith last night about a potential Vlad Jr. price tag, and Ben mentioned Rafael Devers as a comp just as Jeff did in his question.  Indeed, Devers' contract only covers free agent years and started with his age-27 season.  That was a ten-year, $313.5MM extension.  Due to deferred money, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe wrote that the CBT hit on Devers' deal is "just more than $29 million."  In other words, the present value of Devers' deal was below $300MM.  It was also not signed on the open market.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript: Winter Meetings Continue!

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Day 2 of the Winter Meetings has brought a massive deal for Max Fried, a Rangers/Nathan Eovaldi reunion and an out-of-the-blue Andres Gimenez trade! MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes and I are down in Dallas for this year's event. We hosted a chat with subscribers for the next hour or so. If you haven’t subscribed to Trade Rumors Front Office, you can learn more here and do so today.

 

 

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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The Winter Meetings are in full swing! MLBTR's Tim Dierkes and I are down in Dallas for this years event. We're hosting an impromptu chat with subscribers for the next hour or so. If you haven't subscribed to Trade Rumors Front Office, you can learn more here and do so today.

 

 

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The Best Fits For Willy Adames

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MLBTR has taken a look at the markets for Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Alex Bregman in a trio of posts for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. We'll continue that with a look at the likely market for one of the top free agent infielders: Willy Adames.

The longtime Brewers shortstop is among the most potent bats in the game at his position. Adames slugged a career-high 32 home runs in 2024, topping his previous highwater mark of 31 round-trippers, set in 2022. Over the past four seasons, he's tied with Corey Seager for the MLB lead in shortstop home runs (112). He's more strikeout-prone than some teams might like, but he's cut his strikeout rate in four consecutive seasons now, fanning in one-quarter of his plate appearances this past year. That's still a fair bit, but it's no longer egregiously north of league average, which sat at 22.6% in 2024.

The Brewers bought low on Adames early in the 2021 season when he was struggling with the Rays, sending a pair of generally unproven relievers to Tampa Bay: J.P. Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen. It worked out for both parties in the end. Adames became an All-Star shortstop, and both pitchers became key parts of Tampa Bay's staff -- Rasmussen in particular. He's rattled off four straight seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA, much of it out of the rotation.

Adames hit .244/.323/.457 in parts of four seasons in Milwaukee. That overall line is dragged down by a pedestrian 2023 season, but Adames has been at least 9% better than average at the plate in four of the past five years, by measure of wRC+ (and at least 19% better in three of the past five). He's typically graded out as a plus defender, though his defensive metrics took an unexpected dip last year -- due largely to an uncharacteristically error-prone stretch in July where he made eight miscues in just three weeks.

Teams will likely still view Adames as a player with strong defensive tools, and he's willing to move to another position -- third base or second base -- if the right opportunity presents itself. Adames made the no-brainer decision to reject a qualifying offer from Milwaukee. He's surely kept a watchful eye as fellow shortstops Trevor Story ($140MM), Javier Baez ($140MM) and Dansby Swanson ($177MM) all cashed in on major free-agent deals heading into their own age-29 seasons. Adames, whose gregarious personality and reputation as a clubhouse leader only further enhance his appeal to clubs, arguably has as much or even more earning power than any of that bunch.

Let's take a look at which teams could be involved.

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