Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut
Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
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What Would It Take For The Rangers To Duck Under The Luxury Tax Line?
The 2023 Angels entered the trade deadline as something of a long-shot contender but nevertheless embarked on an aggressive win-now push. In an effort both to break their postseason drought and perhaps to show impending free agent Shohei Ohtani a commitment to winning, the Halos went out and acquired Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, C.J. Cron, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. It was a valiant, if not desperate effort, and it fell short almost immediately. By mid-August, the Angels were buried in the standings with virtually no hope of climbing back into contention. With the former August trade waiver system no longer in place, GM Perry Minasian and his staff waved the white flag in a new and more drastic way: they put more than one quarter of the roster on outright waivers.
By placing Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe and Tyler Anderson on waivers, the Angels positioned themselves to A) save an enormous amount of money, B) potentially dip back under the luxury tax threshold (they succeeded), and C) impact several postseason races ... just not in the way they originally envisioned. For those who don't recall, the Guardians claimed Giolito, Lopez and Moore. Renfroe was claimed by the Reds. Leone went to the Mariners. Grichuk and Anderson were not claimed.
Last week, MLBTR's Darragh McDonald previewed a handful of veterans who could hit waivers in just this fashion later this month. Since Darragh wrote that piece, one team has emerged as an even likelier candidate to go down this road; as the Astros have gone on an eight-game winning streak and the Mariners have kept in arm's reach, the Rangers have fallen to a daunting 10 games back in the AL West and 10.5 back in the Wild Card hunt. FanGraphs gives the Rangers a 0.6% chance of reaching the postseason. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is more bullish ... at 2.4%. Texas isn't mathematically eliminated, but they're not far off.
As Darragh noted last week and as both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Jon Becker of FanGraphs have explored this week, there's an argument that the Rangers should jettison some of their impending free agents and cut back costs. In his column, Becker looked at how much money the Rangers would save by placing their impending free agents on waivers two days before the Aug. 31 postseason eligibility deadline. Rosenthal noted within his column that there's no clear path to dipping under the luxury tax for the Rangers, "so their only motivation would be to save on salary."
Technically that's true, but it's also not impossible for the Rangers to duck under the threshold without placing their entire roster on waivers for the taking. While sneaking under the tax threshold is a tall order, it could potentially be done without completely decimating next season's roster. Let's take a look at how they could get there and at what type of benefits they'd receive for doing so.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat this afternoon, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.
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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Nationals, Cardinals, Cubs, Ray
In today's mailbag, we get into the Nationals' needs, the Cardinals' situations with Nolans Arenado and Gorman, how the Cubs might approach the offseason, whether Robbie Ray will opt out, and much more.
Kevin asks:
The Nats have a lot of talented youngsters ready to join the team but opening the window will require some veterans. Should they: Make us whole and try to sign Juan Soto, use that money to hire two or three solid veterans, or try several shorter term contracts because the window will really first open in 2026?
Soto returning to the Nats is an intriguing idea. A lot of the best free agent signings have been for young superstars, though it's unclear whether the Nationals would offer even more than the $440MM Soto turned down two years ago. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo has said he made three offers to Soto within a year, and none of them were countered. Since then, the Lerners decided not to sell the Nationals, so you could say there's more certainty with ownership.
One question is whether the Lerners will return to the days of a top-ten payroll. I don't know the answer to that, but they have almost nothing on the books after this year aside from the Stephen Strasburg contract.
As it relates to Soto, it's worth asking whether the Nationals committing to an outfielder is a good use of resources. A Hall of Fame talent like Soto would be a great addition to any team, but if James Wood, Dylan Crews, and Robert Hassell III all become productive Major League outfielders as the Nationals expect, something would have to give.
Here's a look around the diamond to assess what the Nats might need:
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Alex Bregman Has Returned To Form
Alex Bregman did not have a good start to his platform year. The two-time All-Star hit .216/.283/.294 through the season's first month. His production in May was better (.221/.276/.442) but still far below his typical level. Bregman wasn't the biggest culprit for the Astros' rough start -- rotation injuries and a complete lack of production out of first base shouldered the majority of the blame -- but his underperformance was another red flag in a season that looked like it might go off the rails.
That's all changed in the past two and a half months. Player and team alike have found their stride since the start of June. The Astros are 39-22 going back to June 1. That includes an ongoing seven-game win streak that is the current best in MLB. A team that was once 12 games below .500 and 10 games back in the division race now holds a game and a half lead on the Mariners in the AL West. Houston and Seattle have almost completely pulled away from the defending champion Rangers, who have plummeted 9.5 back of a playoff spot.
Bregman is one of the biggest reasons for that resurgence. He has been a top 25 hitter in MLB since the start of June, hitting .302/.357/.516 with 12 homers. He's got five longballs in August alone, tying him for fifth (behind Jake Burger, Corey Seager, Ketel Marte and Juan Soto) in that regard. Bregman has put his early-season swoon behind him, albeit with one notable change from his pre-2024 production.
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Fantasy Baseball: Streaming Endgame – The Lefties
Hello friends.
Pardon my absence these last two weeks, as I've had some family health issues to deal with. But I'm back now, babies, and ready to buckle down for our fantasy stretch run.
With all due respect to hitters and relievers, the most value that'll be found on the wire from now until close will come from streaming pitchers. And by value, I mean the production that can realistically help you catch up (or shore up) certain categories in your quest for a championship. I don't just mean streaming pitchers from the waiver wire, either. The band of pitchers you consider "must starts" will almost necessarily whittle itself down as decisions need to be cut with a knife that's more and more subtle as the season comes to a close.
With that in mind, let's update our previous looks at targeted streaming. That is, paying a more particular mind to which teams should be avoided and targeted according to the pitcher handedness of your possible options.
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Live Chat With Fantasy Baseball Expert Nicklaus Gaut
Fantasy baseball expert Nicklaus Gaut will be holding a live chat today at 11am central time, exclusively with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Use the link below to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.
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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a live chat today at 2:00pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Click the link below to read the transcript.
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Several Veterans Who Could Be Available On Waivers This Month
Now that the trade deadline has come and gone, it's harder for contending clubs to upgrade their respective rosters. There are still a few ways to do so, as MLBTR's Steve Adams recently laid out, but most of those methods involve adding guys not currently rostered who are naturally depth pieces at best.
To add a solid, usable big leaguer, the best remaining path is waivers. The old August waiver trade system ended in 2019, but many veteran players found themselves on waivers last August anyway, which started with the Angels.
The Halos fell out of contention in August and their priority shifted from winning to ducking under the competitive balance tax. Since trades were no longer possible, they put a whole bunch of guys on waivers and just hoped that other clubs would take them, the baseball equivalent of putting a "for free" box by the curb. Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, Randal Grichuk, Matt Moore, Hunter Renfroe, Dominic Leone and Tyler Anderson were put on waivers and then other clubs followed suit, though to a less significant degree. The Yankees had no hope of avoiding the CBT but were slipping in the standings and had no use for an impending free agent like Harrison Bader. It was a similar situation with the Mets and Carlos Carrasco. The Tigers and White Sox weren't going to be CBT payors but made José Cisnero and Mike Clevinger available, simply hoping to cut costs.
Because the waiver priority order goes in reverse order of standings, the clubs best positioned to benefit were those just on the fringes of contention. The teams buried in the standings would have no motivation to grab such players and take on salary while the teams at the top of the standings would get last dibs in the waiver process. The Guardians claimed Giolito, López and Moore while the Reds grabbed Bader and Renfroe.
It doesn't seem like this trend will stop here in 2024. This year, Kevin Kiermaier, Ty France and Josh Bell have already been on waivers at some point. All three players cleared and were ultimately traded prior to the deadline, with some money changing hands in each of those deals. Others will surely follow them in the weeks to come, but clubs won't be able to work out trades involving cash considerations. The claiming club will have to take on all that's left of the contract from the waiving club.
Logically, these players will be available on waivers before the end of August. Players acquired after that time are not postseason eligible, which limits the attraction, though it could still happen. After the Guards fell from contention, they put Moore back on waivers just a few weeks after claiming him, and the Marlins nabbed him at that time. He made four scoreless appearances for Miami, helping them squeak into the playoffs, but wasn't eligible to join the club in the postseason.
So who could be available this time around? The most likely players are those making a notable salary on a club that could fall back in the playoff race, particularly one with CBT concerns. But an underwater contract won't be terribly appealing, so the player should still have some utility that makes it at least vaguely justifiable for the claiming club to take on some money. Many of these will require the team to really perform poorly in the next few weeks, making them long-shot possibilities, but let's take a look at some of the most interesting guys who could plausibly fit the bill.
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Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Waivers, Gleyber, Goldschmidt
This week's mailbag gets into possible waiver contract dumping, Gleyber Torres' free agency, teams' interest in Trevor Rogers, the Cardinals re-signing Paul Goldschmidt, and much more.
Ben asks:
What teams might we expect to see make some last minute, financially-motivated maneuvers to avoid the consequences of the luxury tax? Do you anticipate any notable players being placed on waivers, such as when Lucas Giolito and Matt Moore were made available last August? Which teams would be in prime position to take advantage of this system?
Joseph asks:
You guys recently did a piece on how players could move post-deadline. Could you envision a scenario where a taxpayer like the Giants fall out of the wild-card race then put a bunch of expensive pending free agents (like Snell or Conforto) on waivers to dump salary in an attempt to duck under the CBT? I remember that happening forever ago with the Angels and Vernon Wells, but never with a star player playing really well like Snell. How crazy would that be for an impact player to get claimed on waivers and influence the playoff race?
Since competitive balance tax penalties are compounding up to the third consecutive time a team goes over, there's benefit to "resetting" and getting under the base tax rate so you can become a first-time payor in 2025. Doing so requires dipping under $237MM this year. Failing that, it's still beneficial to avoid going over the second surcharge threshold of $277MM, which triggers your highest available draft pick moving back ten spots.
Additionally, CBT payor status affects the mechanics of losing or signing a qualified free agent.
The Rangers have a case. Cot's Baseball Contracts has their projected CBT payroll at about $251MM, and they paid the luxury tax last year. If the Rangers were to fall further out, they could put impending free agents such as Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Jose Leclerc, Kirby Yates, Andrew Chafin, and Carson Kelly on waivers. Though such a scheme could benefit the Rangers, it's possible it could rankle these veteran players, particularly if it serves as an end-run around Scherzer's no-trade rights. It may be a moot point, as he's on the IL at present, but this could become an option if Scherzer is healthy and actually wants to finish the season with a contender. The Rangers are five games out in the AL West at the moment.
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