Latest NL Central Chatter
It has been a fairly quiet winter for the Cardinals, who are looking to defend a triumphant return to the top of the NL Central heap. In the latest edition of the Best Podcast In Baseball (audio link), Derrick Goold and St. Louis Post-Dispatch colleague Ben Frederickson examine the question whether the organization can still plug a big new bat into its lineup. There’s ongoing contact with Marcell Ozuna and interest in Nolan Arenado, but it’s still largely unclear whether either player — or some alternative — will end up with the Redbirds in 2020.
More from the NL Central:
- The Reds are surely still contemplating additions even after inking Shogo Akiyama and making other roster upgrades. But GM Nick Krall suggests the outfield won’t be the focal point, as John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports on Twitter. With Akiyama installed up the middle, the Reds now have loads of options for finishing their roster, including potentially moving existing outfielders in various scenarios. The team will adopt an “opportunistic” stance with regard to free agent outfielders, Krall says. Further improvement could happen, it seems, but only if a compelling value proposition arises.
- There has been a lot of turnover for the Brewers this winter, though it seems fair to say the approach has been one of seeking incremental, cost-efficient improvement. Certainly, there hasn’t been a marquee addition. The organization may or may not have something bigger up its sleeve, but it likely isn’t done making moves. GM David Stearns told reporters yesterday he’d be “surprised” if he isn’t able to make further roster tweaks, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (Twitter links). The top Milwaukee baseball decisionmaker also indicated that he thinks it likelier the team will make its next strike via trade than through a free agent market that has already been drained of many of its best assets.
- The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma (subscription link) provide an update on the not-yet-updated Cubs roster. Perhaps unsurprisingly … well, there’s really not much new to report. The club remains disappointed in the level of demand they’ve found for top potential trade chips Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras, per the reporting duo, which says that rivals feel the Chicago org has placed “sky-high asking prices.” Internally, the front office simply does not and has not ever intended to move those high-grade players “for anything less than a massive haul.” Under the circumstances, it’s not surprising to see ongoing stasis. The trouble is that the Cubs roster — which is examined in full in the link — doesn’t appear especially likely to make strides without new additions.
Brewers Extend Craig Counsell
The Brewers have announced a new contract with manager Craig Counsell, as first reported by Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’s said to take the skipper through the 2023 season.
Counsell, 49, was already under contract through the 2020 campaign under the extension he reached in the fall of 2016. He was originally hired in the midst of the 2015 season, replacing the fired Ron Roenicke.
While he predates GM David Stearns, the two have seemingly worked together seamlessly in Milwaukee. Since a losing 2016 season, the organization has turned in three consecutive winners and two-straight postseason appearances.
The Brewers narrowly won the NL Central in 2018 and grabbed a Wild Card in the just-completed campaign. While the club has had some disappointment in the postseason — falling short in seven games against the Dodgers in the 2018 NLCS and then faltering late in the 2019 Wild Card game to the eventual World Series champion Nationals — that’s the fate of all but one team every season.
It’s inarguable that the Stearns-Counsell combination has been a successful one thus far. The latter has now been voted the runner-up in the National League Manager of the Year race in consecutive seasons.
Despite the good results, there’ll be loads of new faces in uniform when camp opens next month. The Brewers model under Stearns has been to swap out parts as needed to ensure cost-efficiency. But this winter has seen more turnover than before and left the club with a mix-and-match roster that’ll require rather active day-to-day management during the season. It’ll be Counsell’s job not only to meld the new pieces together in the clubhouse, but deploy them in the most advantageous manner in 2020.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Brewers To Sign Justin Smoak
9:38am: Smoak will earn $4MM in 2020 and has a $1MM buyout on a $5.5MM option for the 2021 season, Passan tweets.
9:27am: The two sides are in agreement on a one-year, $5MM contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports. There’s also a club option for the 2021 season, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. The deal is pending a physical.
9:09am: The Brewers are closing in on a contract with free agent first baseman Justin Smoak, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). Smoak is represented by the Bledsoe Agency.
This is the latest in a string of short-term acquisitions for the Milwaukee organization, which has almost completely turned over its infield over the past six weeks. The club has installed Eric Sogard and Luis Urias in the middle infield mix while picking up Ryon Healy and now Smoak to help cover the corners. Keston Hiura, of course, will factor prominently into the mix as well after impressing with the bat in his rookie season.
Beyond that, president of baseball ops David Stearns said after this week’s signing of Avisail Garcia that Ryan Braun will likely see some time at first base in 2020 as well (Twitter link via Andrew Wagner of the Wisconsin State Journal). It’s a layered collection of veterans and young upside hitters, and the precise manner in which playing time will be sorted remains to be determined in Spring Training.
Smoak made a long-awaited break-out at the plate in 2017 and followed that up with a strong ’18 effort. In combination, he slashed .256/.353/.495 with 63 home runs in 1,231 turns with the bat in those campaigns. Unfortunately, he hit the skids a bit in the just-completed season. The switch-hitting 33-year-old is coming off of a .208/.342/.406 effort, but the underlying metrics on his season are far more interesting than his surface-level .208 batting average.
In fact, there’s some evidence to suggest that the Brewers could hit gold with this signing. As explored here at MLBTR back in September, Smoak’s .323 wOBA lagged the .366 xwOBA he registered with Statcast, indicating there could be some positive regression in the batted-ball department. He also drew walks at an exceptionally healthy 15.8% rate while striking out just 21.2% of the time.
As highlighted in that September exploration of his odd season, Smoak chased pitches outside the strike zone less than nearly any hitter in MLB, and he ranked among the game’s best in terms of pitches per plate appearance. He’s an extremely disciplined hitter who should make opposing pitchers work even if he continues to hit for a low batting average. And, supposing Smoak can turn balls in play into base hits at an increased rate — his .223 BABIP was certainly an outlier — he could bounce right back into being a productive hitter.
Milwaukee undeniably lost some key pieces this winter, with Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas departing for four-year deals with the White Sox and Reds, respectively. Eric Thames, meanwhile, was bought out and sent into the free-agent market. Smoak will in many ways replace Thames at a slightly reduced cost — likely bringing better glovework to the table but lesser production against right-handed pitching.
Smoak will come in at $1.5MM less than Thames would’ve earned — a slight savings that exemplifies the Brewers’ risk-averse mentality and focus on the margins when building out a roster. This depth-forward approach both safeguards against injury and allows for slightly reduced workloads that, in theory, lessen the overall risk of injury and keeps their position players fresher. It also leads to a great deal of turnover, which can be frustrating for fans at times but has resulted in three straight winning seasons and two consecutive postseason appearances.
Brewers To Sign Eric Sogard
The Brewers have struck a deal with veteran infielder Eric Sogard, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic ( Twitter links). It’s said to be a one-year, $4.5MM arrangement that includes an option for another campaign.
Sogard returns to Milwaukee after an up-and-down stint with the club from 2017-18. When last he suited up for the Brew Crew, Sogard proved unable to repeat a strong 2017 season in which he walked more than he struck out and delivered his first-ever above-average offensive effort.
After that disappointing turn, Sogard secured a minor-league deal with the Blue Jays. He earned his way up rather quickly and ended up producing an even more interesting season with the bat. Over 442 plate appearances, before and after a mid-season trade to the Rays, Sogard popped 13 home runs and delivered a .290/.353/.457 batting line.
Sogard’s surprising burst obviously coincided with a general power wave. He also benefited in particular from some wall-scraping dingers that he rode out with a much-steepened average launch angle. We examined the topic in the approach to the trade deadline. As it turned out, Sogard hit just three dingers and slugged .404 in his 119 plate appearances with Tampa Bay, so perhaps there’s added cause to wonder whether that will continue.
No doubt the Brewers have a good sense of how much power to anticipate from Sogard. They’re also amply familiar with his other qualities, including an exceptional eye and contact ability. Sogard delivers well-regarded glovework at second base, the ability to line up just about anywhere on the field, and a track record of adding runs with his legs.
The Milwaukee roster has seen quite a lot of change in the infield already this winter. Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, and Hernan Perez all hit the open market. The club has now added Luis Urias, Ryon Healy, and Sogard as at least a partial slate of replacements.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Brewers Sign Jace Peterson
The Brewers have inked utilityman Jace Peterson to a minors deal, per a club announcement. The contract includes an invitation to MLB Spring Training.
Peterson has never quite made good on his promise, but has still appeared in each of the past six MLB campaigns and appeared in over five hundred big league contests. He’s a .228/.314/.330 hitter at the game’s highest level.
Now 29 years of age, Peterson is in all likelihood slated to provide depth for the Milwaukee organization. But he could yet end up in an important role should a need arise — or should he prove up to the task. He did show a spark last year at Triple-A, even against the offensively elevated International League standard, by turning in 377 plate appearances of .313/.398/.512 hitting.
Brewers Sign Ryon Healy
The Brewers announced a one-year deal with corner infielder Ryon Healy. Financial terms aren’t known. Healy had been cut loose by the Mariners at the outset of the offseason.
Healy will presumably be given a shot at earning a role in camp — if he can show he’s at full health. He’s still working back to full health after an injury-wrecked 2019 season that ended with hip surgery in August. Just when he’ll be fully able to contribute remains to be seen.
28 in January, Healy offers plenty of pop. He swatted 31 home runs in his 711 total plate appearances with the Mariners and might well have delivered more had he been able to participate more fully in the offensively charged 2019 environment. But Healy maintained a miserable .280 on-base percentage in Seattle.
The Brewers will surely hope that Healy can find a way to gain in the OBP department. He has never drawn many walks but also doesn’t strike out a ton. Healy carried lofty BABIP numbers on his way up the farm and in his early career with the Athletics, but fell off upon moving up the coast to the M’s. Statcast figures indicate that Healy may have been a bit unfortunate of late, perhaps bolstering the idea of taking a shot on him.
Defense isn’t seen as a strong suit for Healy, who has graded poorly at both first and third base to this point in his career. To what extend he’s seen as an option at the hot corner remains to be seen. The Brewers have shown a willingness to take chances on defensively suspect sluggers in recent years, relying in part upon advanced shifting to help cover for less-than-elite glovework.
Brewers Sign Avisail Garcia
The Brewers have finalized their third free-agent signing of the past week, announcing Tuesday that they’ve agreed to a two-year contract with outfielder Avisail Garcia. The Mato Sports Management client will reportedly be guaranteed a total of $20MM and can earn up to $30MM if a 2021 club option is exercised.
The contract is said to come with a $500K signing bonus, a $7MM salary in 2020 and a $10.5MM salary in 2021. The $12MM club option contains a $2MM buyout and can be converted to a mutual option if Garcia reaches 550 plate appearances in 2021 or totals 1050 plate appearances over the first two seasons of the contract.
“Avisaíl provides an impactful right-handed hitting force in our lineup,” president of baseball operations David Stearns said in a press release. “Adding him to our current group of outfielders strengthens what was already one of the strongest outfields in baseball.”
This move represents the first big move on the corner outfield market. Garcia ends up getting the two-year deal that MLBTR predicted, but at a greater rate of pay than we had supposed. The contract sets an important market marker for fellow youthful, right-handed-hitting corner pieces Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna, and Yasiel Puig.
Garcia actually received three-year offers, including from Milwaukee, according to Heyman. But he preferred the shorter pact, with the idea being that he will have a shot at returning to free agency in the first year of a new CBA. Whether that proves an optimal time to reenter the market remains to be seen, but Garcia — who won’t turn 29 until next June — will certainly still be rather young at that time.
This time last year, Garcia settled for a one-year bounceback deal with the Rays after he struggled through an injury-limited 2018 campaign. He made good on the contract, turning in 530 plate appearances of .282/.332/.464 hitting with twenty home runs, though that didn’t represent a full return to his breakout ’17 effort (.330/.380/.506).
The Brewers are betting that Garcia can at least replicate his showing last year in Tampa Bay. He graded well with the glove and has surprisingly outstanding sprint speed. While he doesn’t walk much, Garcia doesn’t strike out a ton and has shown he can hit for a high average. It’s certainly possible to envision the talented player putting it all together and delivering a star-caliber performance in Milwaukee.
Despite two-straight postseason appearances, the Brewers have taken an aggressive approach to turning over their roster this winter. The club now has a bit of an overload in the outfield, although the Brewers are generally aggressive in terms of rotating players through multiple positions. Per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (Twitter link), manager Craig Counsell has informed Garcia that the team plans to utilize him in left field and in center field next season, with Ryan Braun moving around (i.e. spending time at first base) in order to accommodate the new arrangement. Garcia also has ample experience in right field, which could help to ease the burden on Christian Yelich early in the year as he returns from a season-ending patella fracture.
Jose F. Rivera of ESPN Deportes broke the news that the two sides were close to an agreement. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the agreement and terms (via Twitter). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the annual breakdown (Twitter links).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Brewers, Avisail Garcia In “Advanced” Talks
The Brewers are in “advanced” talks with free-agent outfielder Avisail Garcia, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweeted on Saturday that Milwaukee was “trying hard” to complete a contract with the 28-year-old.
Garcia spent the 2019 season with the Rays, hitting .282/.332/.464 with 20 home runs, 25 doubles and a pair of triples in 530 trips to the plate. It was the second above-average offensive season from Garcia in the past three years, as he also turned in a career-best .330/.380/.506 line with the White Sox in 2017 (albeit with the help of a sky-high .392 average on balls in play). Garcia’s hard-hit rate and exit velocity both deteriorated in 2019 but were still better than league average. And while most wouldn’t expect it based on his 6’4″, 250-pound frame and middling stolen base totals, Garcia rates among the game’s best in terms of sprint speed, per Statcast.
Milwaukee’s outfield is already rather full, with Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich lined up from left to right field. But Braun has seen time at first base in recent seasons, and a more permanent move in that regard would open some at-bats for Garcia in the outfield, perhaps setting up a platoon with the left-handed-hitting Ben Gamel. The right-handed-hitting Garcia was a bit better against righties than lefties in 2019, but his career platoon splits suggest that he’s been much better against southpaws (.296/.352/.456) than against righties (.264/.312/.418).
Braun, Cain, Keston Hiura and Luis Urias give the Brewers four right-handed bats on whom to rely in 2020, and backup catcher Manny Pina has also been serviceable against lefties in his career. The Brewers, though, look like a club that could struggle to match up against left-handed starters — particularly if Cain doesn’t bounce back from a lackluster 2019 season at the plate. At the very least, Garcia would give manager Craig Counsell some extra thump against lefties, but he’s still a relatively young option who has more than held his own against right-handed pitchers over the past three seasons as well, creating the possibility that he could occupy a more regular role.
From a payroll vantage point, the Brewers have trimmed off quite a bit of money with an aggressive slate of non-tenders, the trade of Chase Anderson and the departure of free agents Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas. After opening the 2019 season with a club-record $122.5MM payroll, they currently have about $67MM committed to 10 players (plus pending arbitration raises for Omar Narvaez, Josh Hader and Brent Suter as well as pre-arbitration salaries to round out the roster). Even if owner Mark Attanasio prefers not return to last season’s level of spending, there should still be room for Garcia and others to be added to the mix for the 2020 season.
Brewers Sign Josh Lindblom
The Brewers are hoping to strike gold on another breakout from the Korea Baseball Organization, announcing on Monday that they’ve signed right-hander Josh Lindblom to a three-year contract. The GSI client will reportedly be guaranteed $9.125MM and has incentives baked into the deal that can bring it to a total of $18MM. MLBTR predicted he’d ink a two-year, $8MM guarantee at the beginning of free agency.
“We are pleased to sign Josh to a multi-year contract and welcome him and his family to Milwaukee,” Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns said in a press release. “During his time in Korea — and most specifically over the past two seasons — Josh has been as dominant as any pitcher in the world. We believe his combination of stuff, execution and experience will allow him to have success at the Major League level.”
Brewers fans may know Lindblom best from his brief time with the division-rival Pirates in 2017, his most recent season in the majors. Lindblom, previously with the Dodgers, Phillies, Rangers and Athletics, had an unspectacular run as a major league reliever up to then. However, he truly reinvented himself as a starter in the KBO over the past two seasons.
Now 32 years old, Lindblom started in all 56 of his appearances in 2018-19 with the Doosan Bears, who were the beneficiaries of a career renaissance. Lindblom posted sub-3.00 ERAs with strikeout and walk rates hovering around 8.0 and 2.0, respectively, in both seasons, in which he combined for 363 1/3 innings. Lindblom was so effective in both seasons that he earned the Choi Dong-Won Award — the top pitching award in the KBO – in each campaign. He also took home league MVP honors in 2019.
So what changed for Lindblom? As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explained, Lindblom still doesn’t throw that hard (his fastball checks in around 91 mph), but he has excellent spin rates on his side. He also became far more reliant on his four-seamer (at the expense of his two-seamer), adopted a splitter that has turned into a significant weapon for him and did well limiting hard contact during his two-year run of dominance.
It’s anyone’s guess whether Lindblom’s success in Korea will carry over in his return to the majors, but the starter-needy Brewers are ready to take a fairly low-risk chance and plug him into their rotation. This is, of course, the second time in recent years the Brewers have signed a former unremarkable MLBer who turned into a star in Korea. They previously inked first baseman/outfielder Eric Thames to a three-year, $16MM guarantee entering 2017, and they got a good bang for their buck out of that decision.
For now, Lindblom looks like perhaps one of at least four set starters for the Brewers, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com observes. He’s currently slated to join Brandon Woodruff, while Eric Lauer and Adrian Houser look like the other leading candidates to begin 2020 in Milwaukee’s rotation. Further additions figure to be added to the fray, and the Brewers could of course deploy a nontraditional blend of pitchers given their penchant for blurring the lines between starters and relievers.
MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported that the two sides were closing in on a three-year deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that an agreement had been reached.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quick Hits: Brewers, Garcia, Phillies, Bumgarner, Red Sox, Price
The Brewers are “trying hard” to bring Avisail Garcia to Milwaukee, tweets The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Earlier, Jose F. Rivera of ESPN Deportes put the Brewers close to a deal with the Mato Sports Management client. Garcia would figure to be a good fit to share time in the outfield with the lefty-hitting Ben Gamel. Garcia has played mostly right field in his career, a few spot starts in left notwithstanding. If indeed he does sign with the Brewers, it could mean moving Christian Yelich back to left. Ryan Braun is also an option for the outfield, though as of right now he’s penciled in for the lion’s share of starts at first base.
- Having nabbed a couple of former New York athletes in Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius, the Phillies are near their spending limit for 2019. Together, Wheeler and Gregorius add $37.6MM to Philly’s luxury tax ledger for 2019. Estimates put the Phillies right up against the $208MM tax threshold, putting some added emphasis to any further moves made this winter. Still, execs from around the league believe they are open to further spending, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The Phillies will continue to look for “opportunistic” signings. It’s unlikely, then, that the Phillies would be in on Madison Bumgarner, given the league-wide interest in the lefty and the hefty contract he is likely to secure.
- Sneaking under the luxury tax remains a “realistic” goal for the Red Sox, per The Athletic’s Chad Jennings. The new regime led by Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom took a more egalitarian approach to the winter meetings than in recent years. Boston took the time to gauge the lay of the land rather than strike hard for a specific target. Moving all or most of the three-years, $96MM owed to David Price is still the quickest path to ducking the tax, but Bloom is resistant to making Price’s contract more palatable by attaching prospects. They are, however, willing to pay down Price’s contract to get it closer to $20MM per year rather than the current $32MM. Until Price does get moved, expect more of the same as the Red Sox will continue to work around the margins to tweak the roster.