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Arnold: Brewers “Open To More Conversations” Following Burnes Trade

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Last night’s trade of Corbin Burnes took baseball by surprise. With spring training less than two weeks away and the Brewers having just spent $34MM to sign Rhys Hoskins for the next two seasons, the general expectation had been that the team planned to hold onto top stars like Burnes, Willy Adames and Devin Williams, despite the trio inching closer to free agency. (Burnes and Adames are free agents next winter, Williams after the 2025 season.) The Orioles, however, clearly came through with an offer that Milwaukee general manager felt he couldn’t turn down, and in the wake of the trade Arnold acknowledged that he’s “certainly open to more conversations” and “wouldn’t shut any conversations down at this point in the offseason” (link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com).

That’s a far cry from a declaration that the Brewers are open for business, but both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com report that Williams, in particular, is also a possibility to move. Rosenthal writes that the Brewers have already “entertained” the possibility of moving the star righty.

Williams, 29, is among the game’s most dominant relievers. Over the past four seasons, he’s logged a 1.75 ERA while striking out a staggering 40.5% of his opponents. Williams’ 11.9% walk rate is well above the league average, but his prodigious strikeout ability, strong 49.5% ground-ball rate and knack for inducing weak contact (85.1 mph average exit velocity, 28.2% hard-hit rate) have all combined to help him mitigate that shaky command.

Excellent as he’s been, Williams isn’t the prototypical power-armed closer we see so often in today’s game. That’s not to suggest he’s a soft-tosser, but he doesn’t brandish the triple-digit heater that’s become increasingly common in modern baseball. Williams averaged 94.2 mph on his fastball in 2023 — an exact match with the league average for relievers — and sits at 94.8 mph dating back to 2020. However, Williams has one of the game’s best pitches, an 80-grade changeup nicknamed the “airbender.” Nearly a quarter of the changeups Williams has thrown in his career (23.1%) have generated a swinging strike. Opponents have batted just .137 and slugged only .199 against the pitch in his career.

Beyond his sheer dominance, Williams is eminently affordable. He agreed to a one-year, $7.25MM deal last month and tacked on a $10.5MM club option for the 2025 campaign, thus avoiding the need for an arbitration hearing this year or next. The value of that club option will likely increase based on some escalators that are baked into the contract. Pitching in 52 games would bump the option value by $200K, while reaching 57 and 62 appearances would add $250K each, plus another $300K for 66 games (which would establish a new career-high, topping 2022’s 65 games). Even if Williams unlocks that full $1MM worth of escalators, an $11.5MM option on a reliever of this caliber would still be a clear bargain.

It should be noted and emphasized that there’s no indication Milwaukee is aggressively shopping Williams or anyone else on the roster. This, however, is the manner in which the Brewers (and Arnold’s former organization, the Rays) have continually operated: maintain an openness on star players as their club control dwindles — particularly those who are likely beyond the organization’s comfort level in terms of asking price on an extension.

Flexibility when it comes to moving short-term players with one to two years of club control is a driving factor in how the Brewers have remained competitive regularly despite perennially ranking in the bottom half of the league in terms of payroll. The trade of Josh Hader at the 2022 deadline netted the Brewers left-hander Robert Gasser (one of their current top pitching prospects) and outfielder Esteury Ruiz, who was subsequently flipped for William Contreras, who won a Silver Slugger as Milwaukee’s starting catcher last season. Hader himself came to Milwaukee alongside Adrian Houser in a trade sending Carlos Gomez to Houston. Right-hander Freddy Peralta, now the Brewers’ top starter, was acquired as a 19-year-old in a trade sending first baseman Adam Lind to Seattle. The list goes on.

Any trade involving Williams will surely require a steep asking price — arguably a comparable or even greater return than Burnes commanded, given his extra year of club control and more affordable contract status. And Williams, like Burnes, figures to be a qualifying offer candidate once he’s able to reach free agency, meaning a new team would know that so long as he remains healthy, there’ll be some draft pick compensation to help recoup the value surrendered in order to acquire him in the first place.

It stands to reason that with Burnes out the door and at least a willingness to listen on Williams, the Brewers have similar thoughts on Adames. The 28-year-old broke out almost immediately after being traded from Tampa Bay to Milwaukee in 2021, when the Brewers sent righties Drew Rasmussen and J.P. Feyereisen to the Rays in exchange for Adames and righty Trevor Richards.

In two and a half seasons as a Brewer, Adames has slashed .242/.319/.454 with 75 homers, 86 doubles and a pair of triples in 1668 plate appearances — all while playing strong defense at a premium position. He’s walked at a 10% clip against a 26% strikeout rate and established himself as a power threat who can hit anywhere in the order, evidenced by 2022’s 31-homer showing. Adames has turned in 17 Defensive Runs Saved and 26 Outs Above Average in the past two seasons alone. He’ll earn a reasonable $12.25MM in 2024 before becoming a free agent ahead of his age-29 season.

As with Burnes, Adames will be a slam-dunk qualifying offer candidate next season. He’s extremely likely to receive and reject a QO, and he’d surely sign a contract worth more than $50MM in total with his next team. That’d give Milwaukee a compensatory pick at the end of the first round of the 2025 draft. Any trade offers would need to eclipse that value — and likely by a strong margin.

That said, the acquisition of Joey Ortiz in the Burnes trade makes it easier for the Brewers to listen to offers. Ortiz himself is a shortstop — and an MLB-ready one at that. He struggled in a tiny sample during last year’s MLB debut (34 plate appearances, .212/.206/.242) but is an accomplished upper-minors hitter who’s considered a good defender at shortstop. The 25-year-old Ortiz spent the bulk of the 2023 season in Triple-A Norfolk, where he slashed .321/.378/.507. That marked his second stint in Norfolk, as he also finished out the 2022 season there and hit well in a sample of 115 plate appearances. Overall, in 504 trips to the plate at Triple-A, Ortiz is a .327/.383/.521 hitter with 13 homers, 37 doubles, six triples and 17 steals.

Of course, as a plus defender at shortstop, Ortiz is more than capable of breaking into the big leagues as an everyday second baseman or third baseman. He and Adames can absolutely coexist on Milwaukee’s roster, and Ortiz could easily slide over to shortstop in 2025 if the team hangs onto Adames for the upcoming season. The Brewers surely don’t feel they need to trade Adames, but as Arnold strongly implied, he also won’t be turning anyone away on principle, either.

That willingness to listen could set the stage for another splashy trade or even two between now and Opening Day, but this isn’t an A’s-esque situation where the Brewers will be selling everything that’s not nailed down. Burnes commanded a pair of immediate big leaguers who both have six years of club control remaining. Any trades of Williams, Adames and/or anyone else on the roster would presumably need to afford similar near-term help.

The Brewers’ recent signing of Hoskins and focus on MLB-ready talent even in trading away their ace highlights the fact that this isn’t a team punting on 2024. Rather, they’re trying to thread the needle of remaining competitive on an annual basis without needing to undergo the exact type of teardown that Burnes’ new team underwent for a half decade prior to emerging as a powerhouse in the AL East. Teams will undoubtedly check back in on Williams, Adames and others in the wake of the Burnes blockbuster, but further trades aren’t necessarily a given.

Orioles Acquire Corbin Burnes

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The Orioles got their ace. Baltimore announced the acquisition of 2021 NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes from the Brewers for rookie infielder Joey Ortiz, left-hander DL Hall, and their 2024 Competitive Balance Round A draft pick (#34 overall). Milwaukee designated lefty Ethan Small for assignment to clear the necessary 40-man roster spot.

There’d been speculation as far back as last offseason about the possibility of the Orioles acquiring a top-end starting pitcher. Baltimore has a loaded farm system that has graduated plenty of young talent over the past two seasons. Most of that has been concentrated on the position player side, making it a natural fit for them to leverage that farm depth to bring in an impact starter.

Burnes certainly qualifies. He established himself in the Milwaukee rotation during the shortened 2020 campaign. The righty has finished in the top 10 in NL Cy Young balloting in each of the past four seasons. He won the award in ’21 thanks to an MLB-best 2.43 ERA across 167 innings. Burnes followed up with a National League-leading 243 strikeouts and a 2.94 ERA across 202 frames the following season.

Last season was perhaps his least impressive showing since his 2020 breakout. Yet it could only be classified as a “down” year by Burnes’ immense standards. He remained a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, turning in a 3.39 ERA while logging 193 2/3 innings across 32 starts. His 25.5% strikeout rate was still a few points better than league average, as was his 12.2% swinging strike percentage. He finished eighth in Cy Young voting.

It wasn’t the same level of dominance that Burnes had shown in the preceding three years. He had fanned more than 30% of opponents with a swinging strike rate above 14% in every year from 2020-22. Burnes looked more like his old self down the stretch, however. He carried a 3.94 ERA and a 23.1% strikeout rate into the All-Star Break. In the second half, he fanned 28.6% of opponents while allowing only 2.71 earned runs per nine. Opposing hitters had a pitiful .187/.259/.294 slash line after the Midsummer Classic.

Going back to the start of 2020, Burnes has a 2.86 ERA over 105 appearances. He has punched out nearly 31% of batters faced against a modest 7.1% walk rate. Batters are hitting .197/.262/.308 in nearly 2500 trips to the plate. Neither left-handed nor righty-hitting opponents have had success against him. Outside of a two-week injured list stint early in 2021 because of a finger contusion, he hasn’t missed any time within the last three years.

Burnes is a true ace, one of the 5-10 best pitchers in baseball. He jumps to the top of a rotation that has suddenly gone from Baltimore’s biggest question to one of the higher-upside staffs in the league. Kyle Bradish slots in as the #2 arm after a breakout 2023 campaign in which he worked to a 2.83 ERA over 30 starts. Grayson Rodriguez looks to have turned a corner in the second half. The former top pitching prospect worked to a 4.35 ERA in his rookie season. After being tagged for a 7.35 ERA in his first 10 MLB outings, he turned in a 2.58 mark in his final 13 regular season starts (although he was hit hard in his lone playoff appearance).

That’s a potentially elite top three. Former All-Star John Means returned from Tommy John surgery late last season. Some residual elbow soreness kept him off the club’s playoff roster, but he’s expected to be fully healthy for 2024. If that’s true, he slots in well as the #4 starter. Dean Kremer would likely occupy the final spot, with Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin pushed into season-opening relief roles.

While the O’s could perhaps benefit from another depth addition or two, they’ve landed the true #1 that should represent the finishing move on an already great roster. Baltimore’s loaded young lineup and excellent relief corps led the team to 101 wins and an AL East title a year ago. The O’s lost star closer Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery at year’s end but moved early in the offseason to sign Craig Kimbrel as a replacement.

It’s likely a one-year acquisition. Burnes will hit free agency next offseason shortly after his 30th birthday. With anything like his typical levels of production, he’ll be in line for a massive contract that could top eight years and $200-250MM. Burnes has been clear about his desire to test his value on the open market. Asked in December about the possibility of signing an extension if he were traded this winter, he said such an offer “would have to be something that would just absolutely blow you away to get you away from testing the free agent market.”

As recently as last week, O’s fans wouldn’t have been able to dream about the organization putting that kind of proposal on the table. Baltimore has dramatically scaled back spending since John Angelos assumed control of the franchise. On Tuesday, the Angelos family agreed to sell the organization to private equity mogul David Rubenstein. How that’ll impact the long-term payroll outlook remains to be seen, but Baltimore fans can be more optimistic about the chances of making significant investments once Rubenstein takes control of the franchise after the sale is approved by MLB in the coming months.

In any case, the primary focus is installing Burnes atop next year’s rotation. The three-time All-Star had settled on a $15.637MM contract with Milwaukee to avoid arbitration in his final season of eligibility. That makes him the highest-paid player on Baltimore’s roster and pushes their 2024 payroll projection to roughly $96MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. It’ll be their highest season-opening payroll since 2018 and is a marked increase over last year’s approximate $60MM mark.

Still, they’re in the bottom third of the league in projected spending. They’re making a push to defend a title in what is annually one of the sport’s most competitive divisions. Their only commitments beyond this season are a $1MM salary for Bautista and a handful of inexpensive option buyouts. Even if this takes them near their spending limit this offseason, they should have flexibility to further bolster the roster near the deadline.

That Baltimore did so without surrendering any of their true top-tier prospects reflects both the strength of their talent pipeline and the value ceiling for any player who is only one year from free agency. Ortiz and Hall are each highly-regarded young players but placed in the back half of Baltimore’s top 10 prospects at Baseball America.

Ortiz, 25, was a fourth-round pick in 2019 out of New Mexico State. He’d drawn praise for his defensive acumen dating back to his time in college. The right-handed hitter has been more productive at the plate than many amateur scouts anticipated. He owns a .286/.357/.449 slash in his minor league career. Ortiz posted even better numbers between the top two levels of the minors a year ago.

In 389 plate appearances in Norfolk, he hit .321/.378/.507 with nine homers and 30 doubles. Ortiz spent most of his time at shortstop while logging some action at both second and third base. Baltimore promoted him for the first time at the end of April. He nevertheless spent most of the season on optional assignment, appearing in only 15 big league contests. With Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson as the projected left side infield for the foreseeable future, Ortiz would have had a hard time finding much playing time.

Baseball America’s scouting report rates Ortiz as a potential 70-grade (plus-plus) defensive shortstop. Assuming he’s not traded in the next six weeks, Willy Adames will open the season at shortstop. Milwaukee is likely to lose Adames to free agency next winter at the latest, though, leaving a clear path for Ortiz to emerge as the long-term answer. In the short term, he should battle Andruw Monasterio and Owen Miller for playing time at third base. If Monasterio or Miller warrant extended run at the hot corner, Ortiz is an alternative to Brice Turang at second. Turang is a gifted defender but struggled at the plate during his rookie year.

Hall, also 25, was a first-round pick out of a Georgia high school seven years ago. The 6’2″ southpaw has had the same general profile for his entire professional career: huge stuff with worrying control issues. Hall made his MLB debut in 2022 and has logged 33 big league innings over the past two seasons. He owns a 4.36 ERA with a 29% strikeout rate while working almost exclusively in relief.

His 7.6% walk percentage at the MLB level isn’t out of the ordinary. Hall has been a lot less consistent at throwing strikes in the minors, however. He handed out free passes to over 13% of batters faced in 49 innings at Norfolk a year ago, which is right in line with the 13.4% walk rate he owns in his minor league career.

That he also punched out nearly a third of batters faced in Triple-A hints at the excellent arsenal he owns. His fastball averaged nearly 96 MPH in his big league relief work. Hall also worked with a mid-80s slider and changeup while occasionally mixing in a curveball. BA’s scouting report notes that all four of those offerings could be plus or better.

It’s top-of-the-rotation caliber stuff, but Hall’s strike-throwing has led many evaluators to project him as a high-octane reliever. Milwaukee could use him in either capacity. The Brewers have ample opportunity in the rotation behind new staff ace Freddy Peralta. Veteran lefty Wade Miley is a steadying presence. After that, Milwaukee could lean on any of Colin Rea, injury returnees Joe Ross and Aaron Ashby and prospects like Hall and Robert Gasser in the rotation.

Neither Ortiz nor Hall has reached one year of major league service. They’re each under club control for at least six seasons and three years away from arbitration. They’re the kind of high minors players that Milwaukee frequently targets. Their organizational philosophy, much like that of other small-market franchises like the Rays and Guardians, is to eschew traditional competitive windows while building the farm system by trading veterans as they get close to free agency.

GM Matt Arnold stated that trading Burnes isn’t the signal of a traditional rebuild (relayed by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Last week’s signing of Rhys Hoskins to a $34MM free agent deal that allows him to opt out after next season makes clear they’re not giving up on contending in a wide open NL Central. They’ve shown time and again they’ve nevertheless open to offers on most players to try to remain consistently competitive. After trading Josh Hader at the 2022 deadline led to discontent within the clubhouse, the front office suggested they were less inclined to make those kinds of trades during the season.

Between the shoulder injury that led Milwaukee to non-tender Brandon Woodruff and tonight’s move, the Brewers have subtracted their top two starters this offseason. Milwaukee’s payroll projection drops to around $102MM, per Roster Resource. That’s well below last year’s $118MM season-opening mark. That leaves open the possibility of Milwaukee backfilling the rotation in free agency. Arnold was noncommittal as to whether the team planned to reinvest their payroll savings (via Hogg).

Milwaukee should add a third notable young player with the draft choice they acquired. Milwaukee would have received a compensatory pick had they let Burnes depart in free agency — he’ll surely reject a qualifying offer — but that wouldn’t have been until 2025. Baltimore can make Burnes a QO next offseason (and will, unless he suffers a serious injury). As a revenue sharing recipient, they’d land a compensation pick after the first round in 2025 if he signs elsewhere for at least $50MM.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Orioles were nearing a deal to acquire Burnes. Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicated the deal was agreed upon. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Ortiz and Hall were among the pieces headed to the Brewers. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the inclusion of the draft pick to complete the deal.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Brewers Designate Ethan Small For Assignment

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The Brewers have designated left-hander Ethan Small for assignment, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. That’s the corresponding 40-man roster move for the two players acquired from Baltimore in the Corbin Burnes trade.

Small was Milwaukee’s first-round pick in 2019 after an excellent college career at Mississippi State. He was initially regarded as one or the better prospects in the organization, but his stock had dipped as he reached the upper minors. Small posted a 4.46 ERA in Double-A in 2022. Milwaukee moved him to the bullpen last year.

The 26-year-old (27 this month) posted decent numbers in relief for Triple-A Nashville. He worked to a 3.18 ERA through 51 innings, striking out 28.5% of opposing hitters. Small also walked 11.2% of batters faced and the Brewers didn’t give him much of an opportunity at the big league level. He pitched twice in the majors last season and has four MLB appearances for his career.

Small doesn’t throw especially hard, averaging 92 MPH on his fastball in his limited MLB work. Prospect evaluators credited him with a plus changeup and his atypical, over-the-top delivery makes him an unconventional look for opposing hitters.

The Brewers will have one week to trade Small or place him on outright waivers. It’s likely he’ll draw interest from another team given his draft pedigree and decent Triple-A résumé. Small has one minor league option remaining. If another team is willing to give him a spot on the 40-man roster, they could keep him in Triple-A for another season.

MLBTR Podcast: The Jorge Polanco Trade, Rhys Hoskins and the Blue Jays’ Plans

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Is Cody Bellinger unsigned because of his asking price? Will the Cubs sign him or do they not want to block their outfield prospect? (27:35)
  • Should the Mariners sign Blake Snell? Will they? Can they? (31:40)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Brewers Sign Rhys Hoskins

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January 26: The Associated Press relays the full contract breakdown. Hoskins will make $12MM this year and will be slated for a salary of $18MM in 2025. If he decides to opt out after 2024, he will get a $4MM buyout. The mutual option for 2026 is valued at $18MM and there’s a $4MM buyout on that as well.

January 23: The Brewers announced they have signed free agent first baseman Rhys Hoskins to a two-year deal with an opt-out after 2024 and a mutual option for 2026. It is reportedly a $34MM guarantee for the client of the Boras Corporation.

Hoskins takes a modified pillow contract after missing the entire 2023 season. At the tail end of Spring Training, he tore the ACL in his left knee while retreating to the outfield grass to field a chopper. While he was able to take batting practice by the end of the season, he never quite made it back to the roster. Philadelphia suggested Hoskins may have been activated from the injured list had they advanced to the World Series.

With the Phils coming up a game short of the Fall Classic, the ACL tear marked an unfortunate end to a productive tenure at Citizens Bank Park. Hoskins seemed a potential candidate for the qualifying offer at the beginning of the offseason. The Phils opted against the QO, declaring they were moving Bryce Harper to first base permanently. That made clear Hoskins was headed elsewhere after nearly a decade in the organization.

The Phillies initially selected him in the fifth round of the 2014 draft. Despite the modest draft stock, he hit the ground running in pro ball. He posted huge minor league numbers, mashing his way to the big leagues in the second half of the 2017 campaign.

That excellent production on the farm presaged strong numbers against MLB pitching. Hoskins raked at a .259/.396/.618 clip with 18 home runs over his first 50 games. While he didn’t maintain that pace over any subsequent season, he has been a consistent middle-of-the-lineup presence in Philadelphia.

Hoskins hit between 27 and 34 home runs in his four full seasons between 2018-22. He was on a similar pace in the shortened season, connecting on 10 longballs in 41 games. He has paired that with a walk rate above 10% in every year of his career. That power and patience gives him a solid offensive floor, even if he hasn’t hit above .250 in any season since his rookie year.

Since 2018, Hoskins has posted a .241/.350/.483 batting line. He strikes out in roughly a quarter of his plate appearances. That’s slightly higher than the league average but hardly outlandish, particularly for a player who hits for the kind of power he does. Hoskins has destroyed left-handed pitching at a .250/.399/.522 clip in his career. His .240/.336/.482 slash versus same-handed arms isn’t quite as impressive but remains solidly above average.

The offense carries the overall profile. Hoskins doesn’t offer much as a baserunner. He has graded as a slightly below-average defender throughout his career. It’s unlikely his defense will improve as he’s into his 30s and working back from a significant knee injury.

That’s fine for the Brewers, who needed an offensive upgrade. Milwaukee ranked 17th in runs last season, a subpar figure for a team that plays its home games at hitter-friendly American Family Field. By measure of wRC+, which adjusts for park, Milwaukee ranked 24th in overall hitting production. That was the worst of any playoff team.

First base was particularly problematic. Milwaukee received a dismal .231/.292/.389 showing from the bat-first position. That led the Brew Crew to non-tender Rowdy Tellez. Milwaukee acquired Carlos Santana at the deadline to stabilize first base for the stretch run. The Brewers have remained in contact with Santana this winter, but they’ll instead jump on the opportunity for a more significant lineup upgrade.

The contract aligns with MLBTR’s prediction of two years and $36MM. A few priority rebound targets have landed a two-year guarantee with an opt-out in recent offseasons. That’s appealing for the player, who locks in more security than they’d have received on a straight one-year pact while still allowing them to get back to free agency after one season.

Hoskins’ deal nearly matches the two-year, $36MM pact which Michael Conforto signed with the Giants last winter after missing the ’22 season rehabbing from shoulder surgery. Players like Josh Bell (two years, $33MM) and Lucas Giolito (two years, $38.5MM) have signed similar pacts after terrible finishes to their respective platform seasons. This contract structure isn’t attainable for every bounceback candidate, but it’s one that higher-ceiling free agents of that ilk are increasingly able to secure.

The specific salary structure hasn’t been reported. If the deal guarantees Hoskins $17MM in each season, it’d push Milwaukee’s payroll projection around $122MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s marginally above last year’s $119MM Opening Day mark. Milwaukee’s payroll slate remains manageable even with Hoskins joining Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames (each of whom will make more than $12MM in their final arbitration seasons) on the books.

If Hoskins picks up where he left off before the injury, he’d likely join Burnes and Adames on next year’s free agent market. As with Burnes and Adames, Hoskins would be a candidate for a qualifying offer if he exercises the opt-out. He remains eligible for the QO since Philadelphia opted against the offer this winter. Milwaukee doesn’t have to forfeit any draft picks to add him.

Pete Alonso, Paul Goldschmidt and Christian Walker could all join Hoskins in an interesting first base class next winter. The remaining options for teams this offseason isn’t as robust. Beyond outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger, the top first basemen still unsigned are Brandon Belt, Santana, Garrett Cooper and Joey Votto.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the two parties were closing in on a two-year, $34MM deal with an opt-out next winter (X link). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that they’d finalized the agreement.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Brewers, Christian Arroyo Agree To Minor League Deal

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8:23am: The two parties are in agreement on a minor league contract, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The deal contains a $1.5MM salary at the big league level, and Arroyo would have the opportunity to unlock an additional $500K via incentives. Those incentives are tied to plate appearances, a source told MLBTR while also confirming the terms of the deal. Arroyo will be in camp as a non-roster invitee when spring training opens.

8:13am: The Brewers have agreed to a deal with free agent infielder Christian Arroyo, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Terms of the arrangement are not yet known. Arroyo is represented by O’Connell Sports Management.

Arroyo, 28, has spent the past four seasons with the Red Sox but was designated for assignment and outrighted off the 40-man roster not long after the 2023 trade deadline. He elected free agency at season’s end. He’s six days shy of five years of MLB service, meaning that he can be controlled through the 2025 season via arbitration, if the Brewers choose.

The 2023 season was a rough one for Arroyo, who had a pair of IL stints due to a hamstring strain and an ankle sprain. He appeared in 66 games when healthy but scuffled with a .241/.268/.369 batting line over the course of 206 trips to the plate. Coincidentally, Boston cut him loose in August after acquiring infielder Luis Urias in a trade with the same Brewers organization that Arroyo will now join.

Prior to his 2023 struggles, Arroyo had a solid run at the plate with the Red Sox. From 2020-22, the former first-round pick (No. 25 overall by the Giants in 2013) and top prospect slashed a combined .273/.320/.427. He walked at a well below-average 4.7% clip but also showed off above-average contact skills and a 19.4% strikeout rate that was a few percentage points lower than the league average.

While he’s played all over the infield and also logged 108 innings in right field in 2022, Arroyo has played primarily second base and third base in the big leagues. Defensive metrics generally agree that he’s a sound defender at second base, where he’s tallied 12 Defensive Runs Saved and an 8.5 Ultimate Zone Rating in 1332 innings there. Statcast’s Outs Above Average considers him to be essentially average there. His grades at third base aren’t as strong, but he’s also only logged 447 innings at the hot corner in the big leagues. Beyond his work at second, third and in right field, Arroyo has 195 career innings at shortstop and another 53 frames at first base.

Arroyo’s experience around the diamond should serve him well for a Brewers club that has question marks at each of his primary positions. Former first-rounder Brice Turang will likely get the first crack at second base in Milwaukee, but he hit just .218/.285/.300 in 448 trips to the plate as a rookie. Turang was optioned multiple times in 2023 and ripped through Triple-A pitching in Nashville (.298/.365/.561), but he’s yet to find his stride in the bigs.

It’s a similar story at the hot corner, where 26-year-old Andruw Monasterio hit .271/.343/.371 to begin his MLB career but saw his production crater in the season’s final few weeks. Monasterio finished out the season with a .259/.330/.348 slash that checked in 12% below league average, by measure of wRC+. He played strong defense at the hot corner, which surely helps his cause as well, but as a career .257/.365/.370 hitter in three Triple-A seasons, he’s hardly a lock to provide enough offense to carry the position at the MLB level.

Both Turang and Monasterio have minor league options remaining, so it’s feasible that Arroyo could challenge either for a larger role in the Milwaukee infield. He could also win a bench job over current right-handed-hitting utility infielder Owen Miller, who hit .261/.303/.371 with the Brew Crew in 2023 (81 wRC+). Like Turang and Monasterio, Miller has a minor league option remaining and could thus be sent down to Nashville (without needing to pass through waivers) in the event Arroyo outplays him this spring.

Brewers Interested In Garrett Cooper

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The Brewers are known to be looking for additions at first base, with general manager Matt Arnold having admitted last month that both infield corners could use some work, listing a reunion with Carlos Santana as one move they have interest in. Today, Robert Murray of FanSided reiterates that interest in Santana but adds that the Brewers have also considered Garrett Cooper.

Cooper, 33, has plenty of success as a big league hitter but just had an ill-timed down year as he was heading into free agency. He hit .274/.350/.444 from 2019 to 2022, with that production translating to a wRC+ of 117, indicating he was 17% better than the league average hitter. Due to the pandemic and some injuries, he only played 331 games over that four-year stretch, but it was nonetheless a solid run of work at the plate.

But as mentioned, his production took a bit of a dip last year. Between the Marlins and the Padres, having been traded to the latter prior to the deadline, he hit .251/.304/.419 for a wRC+ of 96. On the plus side, he did stay healthy enough to play in 123 games, a career high. But it was obviously not the ideal platform season for him to take into free agency.

Nonetheless, the interest from the Brewers is sensible, as they didn’t have anyone firmly established at first base last year. Santana and Rowdy Tellez got most of the plate appearances, but the latter hit just .215/.291/.376, which led to him being non-tendered and signing with the Pirates. Santana’s line of .240/.318/.429 was right around league average but he’s now a free agent and going into his age-38 season. The club also gave some playing time to guys like Owen Miller, Luke Voit, Jon Singleton and Mike Brosseau, without any of them staking a firm claim to the job.

The club has made one addition at first base this offseason, acquiring Jake Bauers from the Yankees. But he has hit just .211/.302/.361 in his 1,398 major league plate appearances thus far in his career and shouldn’t stand in the way of Cooper joining the roster. Cooper hits right-handed and Bauers a lefty, but even Cooper’s weaker side is stronger than Bauers with the platoon advantage. Cooper has hit .286/.338/.478 against lefties in his career for a wRC+ of 120 and .262/.337/.419 against righties for a wRC+ of 107. Bauers has a paltry .210/.276/.330 line and 65 wRC+ against southpaws and then .211/.310/.371 and 89 wRC+ against righties.

Cooper isn’t a burner on the basepaths but is considered solid on defense. His time at first base has resulted in three Defensive Runs Saved, eight Outs Above Average and a grade of 2.1 from Ultimate Zone Rating. He’s also been sent out to the outfield corners at times but with his work there generally being considered subpar.

The Brewers are the defending champions in the National League Central but they won the division despite a rather tepid offense. As a whole, the club hit .240/.319/.385 for a wRC+ of 92, which was better than just six other teams. They could get a boost when prospect Jackson Chourio reaches the majors but not all prospects immediately hit the ground running when they make it to the show. Meanwhile, the other clubs in the division have all been active in upgrading their rosters for 2024.

There are other big bats available in free agency but the Brewers might want to use the designated hitter slot on Christian Yelich as they are loaded with young outfielders like Chourio, Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer and others. They have William Contreras at catcher and Willy Adames as anchors at catcher and shortstop, respectively. Brice Turang will likely get another shot at second base since the free agent market for that position is fairly weak.

At first base, there are other options out there. Rhys Hoskins would be considered by most to be the top available name, despite missing all of 2023 due to a torn ACL. MLBTR predicted him for a two-year, $36MM deal, which would be a little rich for the Brewers. In the last five years, the largest free agent deal they’ve given out was $24MM over two years for Jackie Bradley Jr., as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Of the other names available at first, a lot of them are on the older side and likely couldn’t handle a full-time gig at first. Brandon Belt is coming off a strong season at the plate but he’s about to turn 36 and only made 28 starts at first on the year. Joey Votto is now 40 and was trying to come back from shoulder surgery last year. C.J. Cron is 34 but coming off an injury-marred year where he only played 71 games and wasn’t at his best when healthy.

Cooper has never really been the picture of health, having spent time on the injured list in his career due to a wrist sprain, a calf strain, a lumbar strain, an elbow sprain, a concussion, an inner ear infection and more. He’s only twice played more than 107 games in a season, but both of those instances were the last two seasons.

Brewers, Corbin Burnes Avoid Arbitration

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The Brewers and right-hander Corbin Burnes have agreed to a one-year deal worth $15.637MM for the 2024 campaign to avoid arbitration, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

Burnes, 29, put together a strong season in 2023 with a 3.39 ERA in 193 2/3 trips to the plate. That performance earned him a third consecutive All Star appearance and and eighth-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting, his fourth consecutive season placing in the top eight or higher. That being said, the 2023 campaign did see Burnes take some small steps back as well. Though he punched out 200 batters for the third straight season, the right-hander’s 25.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career since a 38-inning cup of coffee out of the Milwaukee bullpen back in 2018. Meanwhile, Burnes allowed free passes at an 8.4% clip after entering the season with a career 6.7% walk rate.

Despite those concerns, Burnes was nonetheless among the best pitchers in the league last season, with a 3.4 fWAR that ranked 19th among qualified starters last season alongside the likes of Luis Castillo and Kodai Senga. That earned Burnes a salary slightly above the $15.1MM projection put forth by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz back in October. It’s perhaps particularly noteworthy for Burnes and the Brewers to agree to a deal rather than head to an arbitration hearing given the right-hander’s comments last February on the heels of his loss in a hearing against the club regarding his 2023 salary, where the sides were apart by just $750K. Given the contentious hearing the sides went through last year, it’s hardly surprising that both sides would prefer to avoid a similar situation this winter, Burnes’s final before hitting free agency next offseason.

Burnes has been the subject of plenty of trade rumors this offseason. While that’s hardly a surprise given his contractual status and Milwaukee’s decision to non-tender co-ace Brandon Woodruff earlier this winter, comments from GM Matt Arnold have indicated that the Brewers still plan on Burnes taking the ball for the club on Opening Day. That, of course, could change as the offseason continues to progress. It’s worth noting that, whether or not Burnes ends up traded before the season begins, he’s publicly made clear that he’s unlikely to sign an extension this winter and looks forward to hitting the open market come November. In the meantime, however, the right-hander projects at the front of a Brewers rotation that also features Freddy Peralta, Wade Miley, Colin Rea, and Joe Ross.

Brewers, Willy Adames Avoid Arbitration

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The Brewers and shortstop Willy Adames have avoided arbitration, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The CAA Sports client will make $12.25MM in 2024.

The 2023 season was a slight step back for Adames at the plate but he continued to excel on defense. He hit 24 home runs last year, a bit below the 25 he hit in 2021 and the 31 in 2022. His .217 batting average was also the lowest of his career. He made up for that somewhat by having a career-best walk rate of 11.1% but his overall offense was still below average, leading to a wRC+ of 94.

But on the other side of his game, Adames produced 16 Outs Above Average, second only to Dansby Swanson among all big league shortstops. His 5.9 Ultimate Zone Rating was also tied for second in the majors among shortstops, behind Francisco Lindor in this case, while his eight Defensive Runs Saved put him in the top 10. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 3.4 wins above replacement on the year even with that slightly disappointing offense.

This is the third arbitration season for Adames, who made $4.6MM in 2022 and then $8.7MM last year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Adames for a raise to $12.4MM in 2024 and he will come in just a shade beneath that.

Adames has been a speculative trade candidate this winter, a reflection of his talent, his escalating salary and the fact that he is now one year removed from free agency. The Brewers have occasionally made trades of notable players before they reach the open market, with Josh Hader as the most famous example. As of a few months ago, the club was set to have Adames, Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff all playing their final arbitration seasons on eight-figure deals in 2024. But Woodruff required shoulder surgery that is going to have him miss most or all of the upcoming season, which led to his non-tender.

There have still plenty of rumors this winter, moreso about Burnes than about Adames. If the club were to consider trading their shortstop, it would be a tricky balancing act with the weak crop of free agents for the position. On the one hand, they would surely get aggressive offers since he is far better than anyone on the open market. But on the other hand, they wouldn’t be able to easily replace him by signing a free agent.

At this point, given the lack of meaningful rumors, it seems as though Adames may stick with the club into the 2024 campaign. If they remain in contention as planned, he should be able to stick as their primary shortstop through the season, when he will be a qualifying offer candidate. Though if the club were to fall out of the playoff race, he should be one of the top trade candidates available at the July trade deadline.

Brewers, Hoby Milner Avoid Arbitration

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The Brewers and left-hander Hoby Milner have avoided arbitration, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The southpaw will make a salary of $2.05MM in the upcoming campaign.

Friday is the deadline for clubs and arbitration-eligible players to submit salary figures, with hearings set to take place in late January. Many cases will be resolved as that deadline approaches, such as this one.

Milner, 33 in January, first qualified for arbitration last year and made a salary of $1.025MM. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a bump to $1.7MM in 2024, but he will beat that by a bit. He will be eligible for one more arbitration raise in 2025 before he’s slated for free agency.

He is coming off an excellent season in terms of run prevention, finishing with a 1.82 earned run average over 73 appearances out of the Milwaukee bullpen. He was likely helped by a .254 batting average on balls in play and 84.2% strand rate, both of which are on the lucky side of average. But he still had strong peripherals, with a 23.4% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 50.9% ground ball rate. ERA estimators like his 3.13 FIP and 3.43 SIERA suggest he wasn’t quite as dominant as the ERA makes it look, but they still suggest it was a good performance nonetheless.

He projects to be the top lefty in the Milwaukee bullpen in 2024, with depth options like Ethan Small, Clayton Andrews and Bryan Hudson also on the 40-man roster.

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