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Brewers Select Chris Roller

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The Brewers selected outfielder Chris Roller onto the 40-man roster, tweets Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.  That’ll keep him from hitting free agency shortly after the World Series.

Roller, 27, cracks a 40-man roster for the first time in his career. A 5’11” outfielder, he entered the professional ranks as a 30th-round pick of the Dodgers out of a Waco junior college in 2017. Roller spent four years in the L.A. system before being selected by Cleveland during the minor league phase of the 2020 Rule 5 draft.

The right-handed hitter remained in the Cleveland organization for the next two and a half seasons. He spent most of 2021-22 in Double-A and was bumped to Triple-A Columbus for this year. Roller hit .222/.373/.412 in 92 games there. Milwaukee acquired him in a cash transaction on August 31. He finished the season on a tear with Triple-A Nashville, raking at a .364/.493/.618 clip in 16 contests.

Between the two organizations, Roller hit .247/.394/.449 in 396 trips to the plate. He struck out at an alarming 27.5% rate but walked in a massive 17.2% of his plate appearances. Roller plays all three outfield positions and has spent the bulk of his time in center field.

That production intrigued the Milwaukee front office enough to give him a roster spot heading into the winter. As a player who has spent parts of seven minor league seasons, he’d have qualified for minor league free agency to begin the offseason if he wasn’t on a 40-man roster. If he holds the spot all offseason, he’ll join Blake Perkins as depth outfielders behind Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer and Tyrone Taylor. Milwaukee also has an $11.5MM option on Mark Canha that comes with a $2MM buyout. Roller would still likely begin next season in Triple-A, as he has a full slate of three minor league option seasons.

Pete Ladd Passes Away

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Former big leaguer Pete Ladd has passed away following a battle with cancer, per an announcement by the Brewers. The Portland, Maine resident was 67 years old.

“We learned today of the passing of Pete Ladd, a key member of the great Brewers teams of the early 1980s,” a statement from the club read, “Pete was a man with a big personality and an even bigger heart. Our thoughts and condolences go to his family.”

A 25th-round pick in the 1977 draft, Ladd was selected by the Red Sox as a relief pitcher and worked through the minors in that role for two seasons before making his big league with the Astros in 1979. Though his initial cup of coffee lasted just 12 1/3 innings of work, Ladd impressed in his limited time with a 2.92 ERA that was 25% better than league average at the time. Ladd wouldn’t appear again in the majors until the 1982 season, when he pitched in 16 regular season games for the Brewers, with a 4.00 ERA in 18 innings of work.

Ladd was tapped to serve as Milwaukee’s closer during the 1982 season due to an injury sustained by Hall of Fame relief arm Rollie Fingers. The right-hander was excellent while filling in for Fingers, pitching 3 1/3 scoreless innings against the Angels during the ALCS and striking out five en route to the Brewers’ first and to this point only World Series appearance in franchise history. Ladd also recorded two outs in the World Series against the Cardinals, working around a hit and two walks to avoid giving up a run during the appearance.

Following the club’s World Series run in 1982, Ladd would remain with the Brewers for three more seasons. That included the 1983 campaign, which turned out to be the best of Ladd’s career. He posted a 2.55 ERA, 48% better than league average for the day by measure of ERA+, and a 2.92 FIP in 49 1/3 innings (44 appearances) while striking out 21.1% of batters faced, though Milwaukee unfortunately missed the postseason that year after winning 87 games and finishing fifth in the AL East.

Ladd, then 29, would wrap up his big league career in Seattle after departing the Brewers following the 1985 season. He pitched well for the Mariners in 1986, with a better-than-average 3.82 ERA in 70 2/3 innings of work across 52 appearances. While he continued his playing career with the Dodgers in 1987, he struggled at the Triple-A level and didn’t crack the club’s big league roster, leading him to retirement following the 1987 season. In all, Ladd appeared in 205 games during his six-year MLB career, recording 17 wins, 39 saves, and 209 strikeouts in 287 innings of work with a career ERA of 4.14.

We at MLB Trade Rumors extend our condolences to Ladd’s family, friends, fans and former teammates.

Poll: What Team Will Craig Counsell Manage In 2024?

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With four teams looking for new managers at the moment, the Brewers are hoping they won’t be the fifth, as team owner Mark Attanasio has made clear his preference that Craig Counsell remains in the dugout.  The logic is obvious — Counsell has a 707-625 record in his nine seasons as Milwaukee’s manager, leading the Brewers to playoff appearances in five of the last six seasons.  Widely regarded as one of baseball’s better skippers, Counsell has been a key ingredient in the Brewers’ success, and thus a very intriguing candidate for other teams looking for a new leader.

Counsell’s contract is officially up on October 31, and though Attanasio approached the manager about a new deal earlier this year, Counsell’s preference was to wait until the season was over to delve into contract negotiations.  With another NL Central title on his resume, Counsell is in a pretty nice negotiating position to command a big raise from the Brewers, and continue both his run as manager and his longstanding ties to the organization.  In addition to his stint as manager, Counsell also grew up in Wisconsin, his father worked for the Brewers’ community relations division, and Counsell played six of  his 16 MLB seasons as a player in a Brewers uniform.

As per recent reports from Jon Heyman of the New York Post, “Counsell will stay if he’s paid what he believes is fair,” according to a source linked to the Brewers.  That said, it isn’t yet clear how far along (if at all) the two sides are in negotiations, even with the October 31 deadline getting closer.  It could be that Counsell is waiting until November to officially hit the open market and gauge his worth with some other offers….and one high-spending team in particular looms as a natural candidate for Counsell’s services.

Rumors swirled for years that the Mets were targeting David Stearns as the next president of their baseball operations department, and the pursuit finally ended in September when New York hired Stearns as the new PBO.  With Stearns seen as likely to eventually join the Mets, there was lots of speculation that Counsell might be looking to join his former Brewers boss in Queens, and that speculation only intensified when Stearns fired Buck Showalter in one of his first acts in charge of the front office.

There hasn’t been a ton of public buzz about the Mets’ managerial search, apart from the fact that the team is looking to hire a skipper from outside the organization.  Blue Jays first base coach Mark Budzinski and Rangers associate manager Will Venable have both been linked to the position, though Venable took him out of the running by declining an interview opportunity.  The relative lack of news about the Mets’ search could indicate that they’re waiting to get a chance to speak with Counsell, or it could simply mean that the team is keeping its cards close to the vest.  It is also possible that Stearns might be a little preoccupied with other business given the unexpected resignation of GM Billy Eppler, though the managerial search was expected to take priority over the efforts to find a new general manager (who would act as Stearns’ chief lieutenant).

If not Milwaukee or New York, we can’t rule out the other teams with managerial openings as possible landing spots for Counsell.  Hiring Counsell would give the Guardians an appropriately big name to help fill the void left by Terry Francona, and the Guards have a Brewers-esque approach in trying to perpetually contend despite a limited payroll.  The Giants have a lot more spending capacity and seem to be looking for something of a culture change, so hiring Counsell could certainly provide such a spark to the organization.  The Angels could be going through something of a transition phase if Shohei Ohtani leaves, though there’s obvious appeal in managing Ohtani (if he re-signs) and Mike Trout, and Counsell could welcome the challenge of ending the Halos’ playoff drought.  Beyond these teams, we might also consider other teams who could be more open to a managerial change if Counsell enters the market, with the Padres perhaps still a club to watch in this regard.

With all of this in mind, where do you think Counsell will be managing next season?

(poll link for app users)

What Team Will Craig Counsell Manage In 2024?
Brewers 45.84% (5,185 votes)
Mets 39.49% (4,466 votes)
Other 14.67% (1,659 votes)
Total Votes: 11,310

Brewers Outright Eric Lauer

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Left-hander Eric Lauer has passed through waivers unclaimed and been outrighted by the Brewers to Triple-A Nashville, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Lauer has more than three years of service time, which gives him the right to reject this outright and elect free agency.

Lauer, now 28, once seemed like a solid part of the pitching staff in Milwaukee. Over 2021 and 2022, he tossed 277 1/3 innings for the Brewers with a 3.47 earned run average. He stuck out 23.8% of batters faced in that time while issuing walks at a 8.7% clip.

He and the club agreed to an arbitration salary of $5.075MM for 2023 and he opened the year in the club’s rotation. Unfortunately, he struggled to get on track this year, posting a 5.48 ERA through his first nine appearances. He landed on the injured list in late May due to an impingement in his non-throwing shoulder and the club optioned him to the minors once he was healthy enough to be activated. His 5.04 ERA in the minors this year wasn’t much better but he got recalled at the end of September to make an appearance after the club had already clinched the division. He allowed eight earned runs in four innings, ballooning his ERA for the season to 6.56.

Lauer could have been retained for 2024 via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a slight raise to a salary of $5.2MM next year. But after his poor results in 2023 and the fact that he’ll be out of options next year, it seems the Brewers weren’t willing to have him back at that price point.

Assuming Lauer elects free agency, he will head to the open market and be free to pursue contracts will all 30 clubs. His frustrating 2023 season will obviously hurt him but he can point to his strong results in the two previous campaigns as he looks for his next gig.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Boston Searches for a Boss, Kim Ng and Surgery for Brandon Woodruff

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • What is one team you anticipate will aggressively attempt to contend this season but believe should focus on rebuilding, and one club you expect to act passively during the offseason but think should make a more concerted effort to contend? (15:45)
  • The Pirates’ competitive window should start to open in 2024 but they badly need to address 1B and SP this winter. I’ve talked myself into Ty France (if Dipoto feels the need to upgrade there) and Patrick Sandoval (if the Angels decide to blow it up) as being great fits. Do you like those options or have any other names that could wind up in Pittsburgh? (20:00)
  • To me it seems to be very futile to have great success in the 162 game grind, win your division (by a large margin often) and lose to a lesser team. I get it that baseball is all about who’s hot at the moment but when the best all get upset in the beginning of the playoffs it does give one pause. There surely should be more advantage/reward for regular season achievements. (22:25)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Mets’ Front Office, TJ for Alcantara and the D-Backs Extend Their GM – listen here
  • Mariners To Spend? Tigers To Contend? And Managerial Vacancies – listen here​
  • Free Agent Pitching Dark Horses, Padres To Cut Payroll, and If The Angels Should Rebuild — listen here

NL Notes: Brewers, Dodgers, Dombrowski

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Back in May, Brewers principal owner Mark Attanasio discussed the club’s desire to secure state funding for renovations to American Family Field, the club’s stadium in Milwaukee which is publicly owned and leased to the Brewers. At the time Attanasio mentioned that public officials in the state had indicated that they hope to extend the club’s lease at the stadium, which currently runs through 2030, through at least 2050.

Those efforts passed a significant milestone yesterday, as Jessie Opoien and Tom Daykin of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relayed yesterday that the Wisconsin state assembly voted 69-27 in support of a measure that would provide $546MM in funding for stadium renovations and improvements, to be paid both through the aforementioned 2050 date. $411MM of that total funding bill would fall to the state of Wisconsin, while the remaining $135MM would be covered by Milwaukee county and the city of Milwaukee. Opoien and Daykin add that the Brewers would provide an additional $100MM toward the financing plan.

As noted in the article, American Family Field is owned by the Southeast Wisconsin Professional Baseball Park District, an agency created by the state that leases the ballpark out to the Brewers. Per the terms of the lease, the state is required to provide the majority of the funding for what Opoien and Daykin describe as “long-term maintenance and renovations” of the park, with winterizing the ballpark noted as one possible renovation under consideration. The pair go on to note that the plan stipulates that the club will be required to designate one home game per month of the regular season as a discount day for residents of Wisconsin.

Passage through the state assembly is far from the final hurdle for the deal, though the bills passed have the support of the relevant executives in Wisconsin governor Tony Evers, Milwaukee mayor Cavalier Johnson, and county executive David Crowley. The next step in the process is for the package to secure passage through the state senate, which Opoien an Daykin note is likely to require changes to help raise money for the funding plan. Still, the deal’s progress is surely encouraging for Brewers fans after rumors of potential relocation following the expiration of the club’s current lease in 2030 began to percolate back in August.

More from around the NL…

  • While discussing the organization’s recent end-of-season press conference, Jack Harris of the LA Times noted that the Dodgers explored trades for right-hander Pablo Lopez and left-hander Jordan Montgomery “over the last year,” though no deal came together with Harris noting that the costs of acquiring either pitcher would’ve been beyond what the Dodgers considered to be fair value. The fact that LA recently pursued a deal for Montgomery is hardly a surprise, given they had previously been reported to have interest in his services at the trade deadline. Lopez, however, is a more noteworthy mention as the last rumors connecting the right-hander, who was shipped from the Marlins to the Twins last offseason, were from the 2022 trade deadline. The Dodgers, of course, saw their starting rotation break down throughout the year due to injuries and under-performance, culminating in Clayton Kershaw, Bobby Miller and Lance Lynn combining to allow 13 runs over just 4 2/3 innings of work across their three starts during the NLDS as the club was swept out of the postseason at the hands of the Diamondbacks.
  • Phillies principal owner John Middleton spoke to WEEI’s Rob Bradford recently regarding the club’s pursuit of current president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who the club hired following the shortened 2020 season. The hiring has been an unmitigated success to this point, with the Phillies currently ahead 2-0 in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks and well on their way to a possible second consecutive World Series appearance under Dombrowski’s guidance. At the time, however, Middleton notes that Dombrowski was reluctant to leave his position with the Nashville Stars group, which hopes to lure a potential expansion team to Nashville in the near future. Per Middleton, Dombrowski’s initial contract included a clause that allowed him to depart the Phillies in the event that Nashville was successful in luring an expansion team during his tenure in Philadelphia. Dombrowski extended with the club last offseason through the 2027 campaign, though it’s unclear if his new contract contains a similar clause.

Coaching Notes: Counsell, Astros, Rays

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Brewers manager Craig Counsell just wrapped up the final year of his contract in Milwaukee, prompting widespread speculation that he could depart his hometown team after nine years in the club’s dugout. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported this evening that the Mets have “a reasonable chance” of prying Counsell away from his longtime team, though Heyman added that a source connected to the Brewers indicated that the organization believes he’ll remain with the team as long as he gets paid “what he believes is fair.”

Heyman adds that negotiations between Counsell and the Brewers have seemingly not yet progressed at this point, though as previously reported, Counsell won’t have the option to speak to other teams until November. While Counsell, who lives year-round with his family in the suburbs of Milwaukee, has strong ties to both the are and the Brewers organization, Heyman notes that the Mets have potential advantages in newly-hired president of baseball operations David Stearns and, perhaps more importantly, the reported ability to offer Counsell a significant raise; Heyman relays that a source suggested the Mets could offer Counsell double his 2023 salary with Milwaukee of $3.5MM.

A consensus top-tier manager in today’s game, Counsell would surely attract interest from other clubs if he was willing to depart Milwaukee; the Guardians, Giants, and Angels all have managerial openings of their own. Whether Counsell eventually ends up staying with the Brewers, headed to the Mets, or somewhere else entirely, Heyman notes the Mets are still proceeding with their managerial search in order to ensure they have options outside of Counsell.

More coaching notes from around the game…

  • One candidate for the Mets Heyman floats is Astros manager Dusty Baker, though his connection of Baker and Queens appears to be purely speculative. That said, Heyman does suggest that Baker is “frustrated” over disputes with the front office regarding analytics. Baker’s decision to use Martin Maldonado as the club’s primary catcher rather than rookie Yainer Diaz as an example of a situation where GM Dana Brown’s front office has butted heads with the dugout. Baker, for his part, has managed in Houston for four seasons on a series of one-year pacts and was noncommittal regarding whether he planned to manage beyond 2023 when asked earlier this year. If the Astros do go in another direction for the manager’s chair after this season, Heyman speculates that bench coach and longtime managerial candidate Joe Espada would be a “logical replacement” for Baker in the Houston dugout.
  • The Rays announced today that first base coach Chris Prieto and assistant hitting coach Dan DeMent will not return to the club’s coaching staff for the 2024 season. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times adds that the Rays are expected to consider both internal and external candidates as they look to replace Prieto, though DeMent will not be replaced on the staff. Topkin notes that with hitting coach Chad Mottola and assistant hitting coach Brady North already in place, the Rays felt a third hitting coach “proved unwieldy.” The only other change in the club’s coaching staff Topkin relays as expected is the departure of process and analytics coach Jonathan Erlichman, who Topkin adds is moving to another position in the organization, though that position has not yet been disclosed.

21 Players Elect Free Agency

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With the offseason quickly approaching, a number of players elect minor league free agency on a regular basis. Separate from MLB free agents, who reach free agency five days after the World Series by accumulating six years of service time in the big leagues, eligible minor league players can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season comes to a close. Each of these players were outrighted off of their organization’s 40-man roster at some point during the season and either have been outrighted previously in their career or have the service time necessary to reach free agency since they were not added back to their former club’s rosters. For these players, reaching free agency is the expected outcome, and there will surely be more in the coming weeks. Here at MLBTR, we’ll provide occasional updates as players continue to elect minor league free agency.

Here is the next batch, courtesy of the transaction tracker at MiLB.com:

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

Brandon Woodruff Expected To Miss Most Of 2024 After Shoulder Surgery

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The Brewers announced to reporters, including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, that right-hander Brandon Woodruff underwent surgery today to repair the anterior capsule in his right shoulder. He is expected to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season.

Woodruff, 30, has been an excellent part of the Milwaukee rotation for many years now, but the shoulder issues hounded him throughout 2023. He first landed on the injured list in April after just two starts, diagnosed with a subscapular strain in his right shoulder. He returned in August and made nine more starts down the stretch but was left off the club’s playoff roster with another shoulder issue. Now it seems he’ll have to go under the knife, which puts his 2024 season in jeopardy.

The news is obviously bad for the Brewers, given that Woodruff has been such a valuable part of the club. He has a career earned run average of 3.10 in 680 1/3 innings, posting a 28.9% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. His tally of 10.3 wins above replacement from 2020 to 2022, via FanGraphs, was among the top 10 among all pitchers in baseball. Even with the shoulder injuries this year, he still managed an ERA of 2.28 in his 11 outings.

Subtracting that kind of performance from their rotation would be an unwelcome development at any time, but it’s especially awkward right now. Woodruff is about to enter his final season of arbitration control, set for a raise on the $10.8MM salary he had in 2023. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for $11.6MM in 2024, a modest bump after his diminished workload in the past year.

As a lower-spending team, the Brewers have occasionally decided to trade notable players as their arbitration salaries increased, perhaps most infamously the Josh Hader deal from 2022. This winter has long been seen as a point where they might have to consider a similar move, with Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames all set to make eight-figure deals in their respective final arbitration years. It had been argued that perhaps the club could consider trading one of Burnes or Woodruff to bolster another part of the roster while leaving the rotation still in relatively decent shape, saving some money in the process.

With Woodruff now set for such an extended absence, such a plan becomes less feasible and also gives the Brewers a difficult choice of whether or not to tender Woodruff a contract at all. An eight-figure deal for a pitcher who might miss the entire season wouldn’t be an ideal use of resources, especially for a club that operates without a lot of financial wiggle room. It would be possible to make him a qualifying offer after 2024, but that would be contingent him getting healthy enough to justify such an overture, meaning there would be a lot of risk in simply signing him for one year and hoping for the best. But letting an incredibly talented pitcher like Woodruff depart for nothing isn’t appealing either.

Perhaps he and the club could work out some kind of multi-year deal that would allow him to rehab the injury in 2024 and stay in Milwaukee beyond that. Players set for significant absences such as this often find two-year deals, with the signing team aware that they are unlikely to get much value in the first season. But Woodruff would be under no obligation to sign such a deal with the Brewers. If they weren’t willing to offer him a deal he felt was fair, he could wait and see if they non-tender him, which would make him a free agent and allow him to pursue such deals with any club.

The non-tender deadline isn’t until November 17, meaning he and the club have over a month to work something out on the contract side of things. But circling back to the on-field picture, it subtracts a key piece of the 2024 rotation. Without Woodruff, the group still figures to have Burnes at the front, followed by Freddy Peralta, but things get murky after that. Wade Miley is likely to wind up a free agent since mutual options are rarely triggered by both sides. That leaves Adrian Houser, Colin Rea, Eric Lauer, Robert Gasser and Caleb Boushley as some of the potential rotation members. Aaron Ashby could be in the mix as well but missed all of 2023 due to his own shoulder injury.

It’s possible the club finds an acceptable rotation in there but there’s no doubt it would be better with a healthy Woodruff. Even in the hypothetical scenario where Woodruff or Burnes were on the trading block, that would have at least allowed the club to address a different part of the team, making it a rough blow no matter how you look at it. The Brewers just won the Central division, making the playoffs for the fifth time in six years, but it might not be as easy next year. The Cubs, Pirates and Reds all showed signs that they are ready to emerge from their respective rebuilds and the Cardinals figure to be aggressive in bouncing back from a lost season.

Giants, Athletics Discussed Offseason Trade Involving Sean Murphy, Marco Luciano

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The Giants and Athletics usually don’t combine for many trades, but the two Bay Area rivals got deep into talks about a possible blockbuster last winter, according to Tim Kawakami and Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic.  Kawakami reported back in July that the two teams “apparently were closing in on a deal” that would’ve involved Sean Murphy heading to the Giants, and star shortstop prospect Marco Luciano going to the A’s.  In a piece today, Baggarly reports that San Francisco was willing to move Luciano, but talks fell apart when the Athletics asked for pitching prospect Kyle Harrison as part of the deal.

The specifics of the trade proposal or any other players involved isn’t known, nor is it known if the A’s wanted Harrison instead of Luciano as the centerpiece of a trade package, or wanted both Harrison and Luciano in the deal.  The former scenario seems likelier, as the Giants probably would’ve walked away a lot earlier had Oakland demanded both of San Francisco’s top prospects.

Oakland instead dealt Murphy as part of one of the offseason’s biggest trades — a three-team, nine-player deal between the A’s, Braves, and Brewers that saw Murphy go to Atlanta and William Contreras to Milwaukee.  Murphy lived up to expectations in his first year in Atlanta, making the All-Star team and hitting .251/.365/.478 with 21 homers over 438 plate appearances.  The Brewers were also big winners in the trade, since not only did Contreras shine offensively while making big strides with his glovework, reliever Joel Payamps suddenly emerged as a top-tier setup man.  The A’s bought some new young talent on board in their latest rebuild, most prominently the addition of American League stolen base leader Esteury Ruiz.

Beyond the incredible speed, however, Ruiz’s overall offensive profile is still a little shaky, making him less than a true cornerstone piece for the Athletics.  Some criticism has been leveled at the A’s front office for their returns on the trades of Murphy, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, and others during this latest fire sale, with the most common argument being that the Athletics seemed to aim for quantity over true top-drawer quality.  Though we don’t know the exact nature of the deal the A’s and Giants were proposing, the inclusion of Luciano (or Harrison) would’ve brought one clear-cut top prospect to Oakland’s organization.

The three-team trade had such an immediate impact on the 2023 season that it would’ve created quite the ripple effect had Murphy instead ended up in San Francisco.  It can be argued that the Brewers might not have won the NL Central without Contreras carrying an otherwise shaky lineup, or without Payamps combining with closer Devin Williams to form a lockdown combo at the end of games.  Without those pieces in place, maybe the door is open for the Cubs or Reds to win the NL Central instead.

The Braves’ stacked lineup perhaps might not have missed a beat with Contreras instead of Murphy behind the plate, and Atlanta’s pursuit of Murphy was considered something of a surprise whatsoever since Contreras and Travis d’Arnaud were already in the fold.  That said, the Braves obviously felt they were getting an upgrade over the long term, considering they liked Murphy enough to almost immediately sign him to a six-year extension soon after the trade.  Such an extension might not have been on the table for Contreras.  While the Braves have a penchant for locking up their players, the fact that they dealt Contreras indicates some level of reservation, even if it might’ve been ultimately more a case of Atlanta particularly liking Murphy more than “disliking” Contreras, per se.

By that same dint, the Giants’ apparent willingness to move Luciano shouldn’t be an indication that the Giants are somehow down on the young shortstop.  In fact, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is heading into 2024 aiming to give Luciano at least “the chance“ to be the starting shortstop, underlining the 22-year-old Luciano’s importance to the organization as a building block.  Pundits have considered Luciano has been regarded as at least a top-37 prospect in each of the last four seasons, and he only just made his MLB debut this season, making 45 plate appearances in 14 games.

Dealing away a blue chip prospect like Luciano likely wouldn’t have been a possibility for the Giants at all if a unique trade opportunity (i.e. a controllable high-level catcher like Murphy) hadn’t been available.  The exact timing of the talks with the Athletics were also probably a factor, as the Giants might’ve been more willing to move Luciano if they’d thought Carlos Correa was joining the roster, yet Correa’s 13-year, $350MM agreement with San Francisco ended up falling through due to medical concerns on the Giants’ end.

Had the Giants acquired Murphy, they would’ve landed the signature star they were searching for without success last winter, after the Correa deal collapsed and after Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees.  Perhaps adding Murphy might’ve been the spark San Francisco needed to get over the line in the wild card race, as in this alternate reality, the Giants have both Murphy and perhaps another MLB-caliber regular they received in a Patrick Bailey trade.  It is fair to wonder whether Bailey would’ve been shipped out in a world where Murphy is a Giant, instead of our world where Bailey emerged as a rookie and now looks like he’ll be San Francisco’s catcher of the present and future.

It makes for a fun cascade of what-if scenarios, and Bailey’s potential availability then stretches the web beyond just what might’ve happened with the Giants, A’s, Brewers, and Braves.  San Francisco fans may rue missing out on Murphy, though if Bailey continues to develop and Luciano lives up to the hype, the team might end up coming out ahead.

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