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What To Expect From Prince Fielder?

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The opinions range far and wide on what the Brewers should do with Prince Fielder, and with good reason. His positives are extremely positive, while the red flags are positively scarlet.

Let's start with the basics. Fielder is signed for $10.5MM in 2010, with the Brewers controlling his rights through 2011. Assuming he continues to hit like Prince Fielder, that means 2011 will likely be even more expensive than 2010 for the Brewers.

Fielder is having a tremendous 2009 season. He turned 25 in May, and has posted a line of .298/.410/.588 in 636 plate appearances entering Wednesday. By any standard, he is an elite offensive player.

But the concern most people have with Fielder is his size. Fielder is quite, shall we say, Rubenesque, and the worry is how such a player will both age and continue to play first base.

On the fielding side, the evidence we have is a bit surprising. Fielder's UZR actually improved significantly in 2009. After posting a -8.8 runs and -8.5 runs in 2007 and 2008, respectively, Fielder is at -0.7 in 2009- a stone's throw from average.

And should the Brewers decide to rip up his current deal and sign him long-term this winter, the contract would begin with his age-26 season. To get a sense of how someone with Fielder's body type will age, one need look no further than his father, Cecil. The elder Fielder, of course, returned from Japan for his age-26 season, and shocked the baseball world with 51 home runs. He hit 258 home runs over his age 26-32 seasons, playing primarily first base, not designated hitter.

In other words, if Prince is anything like his father, that's a lot of offense to give up, no matter how badly the Brewers need starting pitching.

Odds & Ends: Strasburg, Ranaudo, Fielder

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A few links for the evening….

  • Chico Harlan of the Washington Post notes one name that stands out on the Washington Nationals' roster for the Florida Instructional League: Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg is expected to pitch in the Instructional League that runs from Sept. 24 to Oct. 13.
  • Keith Law of ESPN.com reports that LSU righty Anthony Ranaudo has chosen Scott Boras as his adviser for the 2010 draft. Ranaudo projects to be one of the top college pitchers next year and a potential top-five pick in the June draft, assuming Boras' presence doesn't scare teams away.
  • BP's Eric Seidman at ESPN.com follows up on the Prince Fielder to San Francisco speculation by discussing what the Giants would have to give up to net the slugging first baseman. Seidman is doubtful that Giants GM Brian Sabean would want to part with any blue-chip prospects like Buster Posey or Madison Bumgarner, but suggests that of their major league talent, only the front-line starters (Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez) would interest the Brewers. Seidman writes that to even consider a trade, the Giants would have to be confident they could sign Fielder to a long-term deal.

Olney On Red Sox, Fielder, Cain

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ESPN.com's Buster Olney caught our attention yesterday when he guessed the Brewers would trade Prince Fielder to the Red Sox after the season. Some MLB executives who noticed Olney's post "flatly disagreed" with the suggestion. Here are the details from Olney's latest column:

  • The executives Olney spoke with believe the Red Sox would prefer not to give up the young pitching it would take to acquire Prince. They gave up a lot of pitching in the Victor Martinez trade, so they will want to keep Clay Buchholz and others.
  • The same executives didn't rule out a Matt Cain for Prince Fielder swap. There's no indication that there's even the smallest amount of truth behind the suggestion that the teams could trade stars, but it makes some sense, in theory.
  • The Brewers, who know they need an improved rotation, get a top young starter to pair with Yovani Gallardo. The Giants get a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat to place behind Pablo Sandoval. Both Cain and Fielder are under team control for two more seasons, so the suggestion is imaginable, if unlikely.

Odds & Ends: Rios, Hardy, Knapp

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A couple more links as the day winds down…

  • According to Mark Gonzales of The Chicago Tribune, one scout called Alex Rios "a teaser," and that he's the kind of the guy that "can get you fired." Kenny Williams sure hopes that's not the case.
  • Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider explains why the Mariners should go after J.J. Hardy. Something tells me we'll see quite a few more posts like this.
  • Jason Knapp, one of the prospects the Indians acquired for Cliff Lee, will have arthroscopic surgery on his throwing shoulder to remove "loose bodies," according to MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince. GM Mark Shapiro says they will not file a grievance.

Odds & Ends: Pirates, Fielder, Nationals

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Links for Monday…

Hoffman Wants To Stay In Milwaukee

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Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com is reporting that Trevor Hoffman has enjoyed his first season with the Brewers, to the point where he'd like to sign on for a second go-around.

Hoffman, 43 in October, has said that everyone in Milwaukee has made him feel more than welcome, and that he doesn't want to go through the adjustment phase of joining a new organization again.

After spending 16 seasons with the Padres, Hoffman signed a one-year, $6MM contract with the Brewers this offseason. He's earning every penny of that, despite missing the first three weeks of the year. Hoffman has racked up 31 saves in 34 opportunities while posting a sparkling 2.00 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and holding opponents to just a .204 average. He's earned an additional $400K in incentives so far, and still has time left to earn more.

Hoffman's 585 career saves rank first all-time, and he's closing in on becoming the first to ever hit the 600 mark. It sounds like he'd like to hit that number and keep going; Hoffman says he wants to keep playing as long as he can contribute.

Odds & Ends: Brewers, Sizemore, Gomes

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Curious about how untouchable Grady Sizemore is? I had to create a category for him just for this post. In the entire history of MLBTR, no one ever bothered to write any rumors about him…

  • ESPN's Keith Law writes that the Brewers "are closer to noncontention than contention, and trying to prop the playoff window open for another year or two could lead to a miserable bottoming-out not far down the road." He suggests they trade megastar Prince Fielder to help fill other holes, and build the team around Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo.
  • Jim Ingraham of The News Herald believes that the recent trades of Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez have effectively shortened the Indians' window to win with Grady Sizemore. Sizemore's contract runs through 2011 with a dirt cheap option for 2012, but Ingraham says there's "no reason to believe when Sizemore becomes a free agent after the 2012 season he won't leave whatever team he is with and sign a monstrous contract with one of the big-market teams."
  • Jonny Gomes is open to returning to the Reds next season, but says he'll "go where I can get the most at-bats," according to Hal McCoy of The Dayton Daily News. Gomes is making $600K this season and is arbitration eligible next year, so he can expect a hefty raise thanks to his .281/.355/.555 batting line.

Brewers Face Plenty Of Roster Decisions

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After a tremendous run last year that resulted in the club's first playoff berth in a quarter-century, the Brewers sat 13.5 GB of a playoff spot coming into today's action, and sport the National League's worst starting rotation thanks to their 5.22 ERA. As Adam McCalvy of MLB.com writes, the club has a ton of roster decisions to make this offseason, although GM Doug Melvin says "We've got a lot of decisions, and none of them will be discussed until the end of the season."

Some of the issues facing the Brew Crew this offseason are…

  • Impending Free Agents: Trevor Hoffman, Claudio Vargas, Mike Cameron, Felipe Lopez, Jason Kendall, Craig Counsell, Frank Catalanotto, and Corey Patterson will all be free agents after the season. The clubs holds a $3.7MM option for David Weathers next year ($400K buyout), and there's a $6.5MM mutual option for Braden Looper ($1MM buyout) that McCalvy says the club "will almost certainly pick up."
  • Arbitration Eligibles: Dave Bush, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, Seth McClung, J.J. Hardy, Jody Gerut, and Todd Coffey are all eligible for salary arbitration. Coffey, who's been the club's primary setup man, figures to get a nice raise over his current $800K salary.
  • Starting Pitching: As I mentioned earlier, Milwaukee sports the NL's worst starting staff. McCalvy reports that "Melvin promised this week that he would be much more aggressive this winter in his search for answers," and that the club might take a "little more chances and risks" than they're accustomed to taking.

The Brewers also have questions about the key up-the-middle positions. They have to sort out the Hardy-Alcides Escobar situation at short, and decide whether to try and retain Lopez or give Weeks another shot at second base duty. Cameron and Kendall have both made it clear they'd like to return, but those decisions will have to wait until the winter.

Milwaukee also must figure out third base, and whether Mat Gamel or Casey McGehee deserves the job. Prince Fielder has the other corner infield spot locked down, and is under contract for $10.5MM next year before being arbitration eligible in 2011, his final year before free agency. McCalvy also mentions that manager Ken Macha faces a lame-duck year next season, and that Melvin is fielding questions about whether another managerial change may be in order.

Olney On Hardy, Rangers, Figgins

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Everyone's predicting the market for Chone Figgins these days and ESPN.com's Buster Olney is no exception. Olney guesses that the Yankees will sign Figgins, who could patrol left field for the Bombers and fill in at other positions when needed. Here are the rest of Olney's rumors:

  • Olney points out that J.J. Hardy, whose free agency the Brewers delayed, picked up 130 days of service time on the DL over the years. It all counts, though.
  • Olney hears that there are now just three contenders to buy the Rangers.
  • One talent evaluator suggests MLB could adopt first and second half winners to lessen the advantage big market teams have.

Brewers Release Jesus Colome

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According to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy, the Brewers have released reliever Jesus Colome in order to free up a spot on the 40-man roster for another call-up.

Colome spent 17 days on the disabled list with a forearm strain, and was activated on Friday, though he has yet to pitch since his activation. Colome pitched just 6.1 innings for the Brewers, allowing four earned runs. For the season, he's struggled tremendously, posting a 7.59 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP through 21.1 innings. Opponents are hitting .362 against him. Assistant general manager Gord Ash said Colome "just wasn't consistent enough." Sounds like an understatement.

McCalvy speculates that the call-up will be either John Axford or Dave Johnson.

Axford, 26, has gone 9-1 and posted a 2.77 ERA through 45 appearances this year. Johnson, 27, was 3-1 with five saves and a 3.72 ERA. McCalvy says both pitchers would be added to the 40-man roster this winter anyway, in order to prevent them from being taken in the Rule 5 Draft.

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