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Zack Wheeler Bidding Already In Nine Figures

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3:37pm: The White Sox are “willing” to push beyond the five-year, $100MM mark in order to sign Wheeler, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports. Whether they’ve actually made such an offer isn’t clear.

11:57am: It seems the Wheeler auction could be building to a crescendo. It’s possible and “maybe even probable” that he’ll sign before the Winter Meetings open next week, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

9:35am: Free agent righty Zack Wheeler is going to break the $100MM barrier with his next contract, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Per the report, Wheeler already has at least one offer in hand of at least $100MM.

MLBTR foresaw intense bidding for Wheeler entering the offseason, when we ranked him fourth in earning power among all free agents. It seems our prediction of five years and $100MM — aggressive at the time — will actually end up just on the light side. The question remains how far north of that figure Wheeler will roll.

Rosenthal lists the White Sox, Twins, Reds, Rangers and Blue Jays as teams with ongoing interest in Wheeler. That’s a non-exclusive list; quite a few other clubs have also been tied to the 29-year-old. The involvement of such organizations reflects the reason we were so bullish on Wheeler’s market entering the winter. Simply put, he checks a lot of boxes for a lot of teams.

It’ll cost draft compensation to sign Wheeler, but that’s not an overwhelming deterrent for a still-youthful player who possesses top-of-the-rotation stuff. Wheeler has been healthy for two seasons while maintaining a big heater and compelling peripherals. He threw 195 1/3 innings in 2019, which is quite a sum in this day and age. That’s a good sign for a pitcher who battled through health problems before a bounceback ’18 campaign. And it seems teams are taking the view that his 2019 ERA (3.96) doesn’t fully reflect his true talent level.

So how much is too much for a pitcher with Wheeler’s history of arm issues and less-than-perfect platform season? That’s what we may soon find out. But in thinking through his value, it’s worth recalling the broader market situation.

In terms of supply, Wheeler occupies an interesting position. He’s clearly not to the level of Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but arguably possesses a much loftier ceiling — with a combination of premium stuff and relative youth — than any of the other available starters. Teams not interested in approaching or exceeding the $200MM level of spending have understandably zeroed in on Wheeler as a potential budget ace. And there’s no shortage of organizations with conceivable interest. Multiple big-spending contenders are chasing top arms along with the teams listed above.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 12/3/19

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In the course of yesterday’s arbitration whirlwind, we covered quite a few players who reached agreements in advance of the non-tender deadline. But several others also struck deals last night (all projected salaries from MLBTR & contributor Matt Swartz) …

  • Righty Anthony Bass has agreed with the Blue Jays at $1.5MM, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Recently plucked from the waiver wire, Bass had projected to earn $1.7MM. The 32-year-old is coming off a season in which he threw 48 innings of 3.56 ERA ball with 8.1 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. It was his most extensive MLB action since 2015.
  • Ben Gamel’s deal with the Brewers includes a $1.4MM salary as well as a $2.55MM club option for the 2021 season, also per Nightengale (Twitter link). The option functions as an earning ceiling for the outfielder. Gamel had projected at $1.6MM, so he’ll come in under that amount while giving up some upside in the event of a breakout. But the priority is surely to gain another opportunity at playing time. Gamel has hovered in range of league-average with the bat over the past several years but slipped to a .248/.337/.373 slash in 356 plate appearances last year in Milwaukee.
  • The Twins have agreed to a deal with righty Matt Wisler, the club announced. The salary isn’t yet known, but it’ll be guaranteed. Given that Wisler is out of options, he’s now rather clearly in line to take a spot in the Minnesota bullpen. The recent waiver claimee projected at $1.0MM. Anything in that range could be a bargain rate for a player that carried a sparkling 63:16 K/BB ratio in 51 1/3 relief innings last year. Of course, Wisler was also tagged for 32 earned runs and ten homers, so he’ll have to figure out how to avoid the long ball.
  • Infielder Donovan Solano has a $1.375MM deal with the Giants, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). That tops his $1.2MM projection, so obviously the club felt there was some risk that he’d be able to command a greater salary in the course of the arb process. Soon to turn 32 years of age, Solano produced one of the game’s least-expected breakouts in 2019. Long a light-hitting utilityman who struggled to establish himself fully in the bigs, Solano turned in 228 plate appearances of .330/.360/.456 hitting last year in San Francisco.

Twins Non-Tender C.J. Cron, Trevor Hildenberger

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The Twins have non-tendered first baseman C.J. Cron, according to Dan Hayes of The Athletic (via Twitter). Righty Trevor Hildenberger was also not tendered a contract, the club announced.

MLBTR had projected Cron to earn a $7.7MM salary in his final season of arbitration eligibility. Hildenberger was not yet eligible for arbitration.

That already seemed like a fairly hefty rate of pay. Any uncertainty in the decision may have been resolved when Cron underwent surgery on his thumb at the tail end of the season, introducing some health questions.

Cron has for the most part been a quality big-league hitter. He was humming along nicely last year before the thumb issue arose. After a rough stretch, he finished his season with a .253/.311/.469 slash and 25 homers in 499 plate appearances.

As for Hildenberger, who’s closing in on his 29th birthday, the past two seasons just didn’t go as hoped. He burned through the upper levels of the farm and looked strong in his 2017 debut. But he was knocked around a bit in 2018 and never caught his breath in a truncated 2019 showing at the MLB level. There’s hope yet that Hildenberger will establish himself as a quality reliever, but he may have to do it elsewhere.

Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To 2019 Non-Tender Deadline

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With tonight’s 8pm ET deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming, there’ll be several players who agree to one-year contracts for the 2020 season today. It’s common for the day of the non-tender deadline to be a big one for arbitration agreements, though it’s also worth noting that many of the players who agree to terms today will do so at a rate that’s lower than the salary figures projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Broadly speaking, players who agree to terms on a salary this far in advance tend to be those who were at risk of being non-tendered, and their teams are able to use tonight’s deadline as leverage in bringing about a deal that saves them a bit of cash. A look at some of the early instances of players agreeing to terms reveals this to be true already; Mike Zunino ($4.5MM salary vs. $4.9MM projection), Wilmer Difo ($1MM salary vs. $1.2MM projection) and Scott Alexander ($875K salary vs. $1MM projection) have all agreed to lesser terms rather than risk being cast out into the free-agent market.

We’ll keep track of today’s players who avoid arbitration in this post and update throughout the day…

  • The Padres have a deal for $1.5MM with infielder Greg Garcia, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. That’s a shade under his $1.7MM projection for the 30-year-old.
  • Infielder Orlando Arcia has avoided arbitration with the Brewers, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Though he’s set to lose some playing time, it seems Arcia will be expected to retain a notable role. He’s considered a talented defender at short and was long expected to come around with the bat, but it hasn’t happened yet.
  • Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes is in agreement on a $1.1MM deal, per Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’s a guaranteed deal, which isn’t standard for arbitration pacts. Barnes had projected at $1.3MM on the heels of a disappointing season. It seems he’ll be asked to function as the club’s second backstop in 2020.

Earlier Moves

  • The Rangers have a deal in place with right-hander Nick Goody, the club announced. He’ll earn $915K, according to MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). Goody projected to earn $1.1MM, so he’s taking a discount on that mark with his new club.
  • Just-acquired righty Jharel Cotton has agreed to a $640K deal with the Cubs, Rosenthal tweets. Cotton had projected at $800K but he’s surely focused first and foremost on getting a significant MLB opportunity. He didn’t quite make it back to the majors in 2019 after a long injury layoff but figures to represent a swingman option for the Chicago club in 2020.
  • Outfielder Alex Dickerson and lefty Wandy Peralta are in agreement with the Giants, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Dickerson settled for $925K, which is well under his $1.2MM projected earning power. The 29-year-old has had trouble staying healthy but usually hits when he is on the field. He rewarded the San Francisco organization for taking a shot on him last year by turning in a .290/.351/.529 batting line in 171 plate appearances. As for Peralta, he lands right at his projected value with a $805K salary. The 28-year-old was claimed off waivers late in the 2019 season.
  • The White Sox and James McCann avoided arbitration with a one-year deal worth $5.4MM, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. McCann’s deal checks in a half million dollars north of his $4.9MM projection. Chicago’s addition of Yasmani Grandal has likely relegated McCann to backup duties, so he’ll be a rather expensive second catcher for the South Siders. A free agent next winter, McCann hit .273/.328/.460 with a career-high 18 home runs, but his bat went dormant in the season’s final few months and his .359 BABIP seems particularly ripe for regression.
  • The Athletics avoided arbitration with left-handed reliever T.J. McFarland by agreeing to a one-year contract worth $1.8MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. That salary effectively puts McFarland in line for the same salary he’d have received had he had his $1.85MM club option exercised by the Diamondbacks. Arizona, however, bought him out for $50K and then ran him through waivers, at which point the A’s claimed him. The 30-year-old posted a 4.82 ERA with a middling 5.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 56 2/3 innings this past season, but he’s a ground-ball behemoth (61.1 percent). He’ll be a free agent next winter and had been projected at $2.1MM.
  • Infielder Ehire Adrianza and the Twins agreed on a $1.6MM salary for the upcoming season, Nightengale tweets. The versatile utilityman hit .272/.349/.416 in 236 plate appearances while appearing at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Adrianza, a free agent next winter, was projected at $1.9MM.
  • Outfielder Travis Jankowski agreed to a rare arbitration pay cut with the Reds, Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. After earning $1.165MM in 2019, he’ll be owed $1.05MM in 2020 if he makes the club. A fractured wrist cost him much of the season in 2019, and he was just 4-for-22 when healthy and in the Majors. Jankowski did have a nice season in Triple-A, though (.393 OBP in 39 games), and the Reds gave up some international funds to acquire him, which seemingly indicated that they planned to tender him a contract. He was projected to earn $1.2MM.

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Twins Rumors: Ryu, Rotation, Cron, Gibson

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The Twins, in need of rotation upgrades, have been in touch with agent Scott Boras about left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North reports in his latest podcast (audio link, Twins talk beginning at 25:10 mark). It’s hardly surprising, as Minnesota figures to gauge the prices of virtually every top starter available, but the connection is nevertheless of some note. La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune also links the Twins to Ryu, and he adds that manager Rocco Baldelli and pitching coach Wes Johnson have been involved in the early recruiting process for the team’s top pitching targets. The general goal of those efforts is to help paint a picture of the culture the Twins try to foster and the means by which they feel they can help pitchers improve. “Making sure that people are comfortable and are going to a place with the right people they want to be with and they want to work with,” Baldelli said of the process. “…I enjoy talking with guys. Some of them end up Twins and some of them don’t. All of those conversations are worthwhile in every way.”

Some more notes out of the Twin Cities…

  • Also within his podcast, Wolfson adds that there’s some internal trepidation about paying first baseman C.J. Cron at the $7.7MM rate projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. They’ll have until 8pm ET tonight to tender Cron a contract, and it’s possible that they could try to bring him back at a lower rate. But the Twins have also continued to discuss the possibility of moving Miguel Sano from third base to first base, which would free up the possibility of acquiring a third baseman either via free agency (e.g. Josh Donaldson, Todd Frazier) or trade. If the Twins part ways with Cron, they’d be at $48.9MM in guaranteed contracts plus another $41.1MM in projected arbitration salaries and pre-arbitration contracts. That rough $90MM sum is well shy of the $130MM record payroll with which they opened the 2018 season, and the team’s 2019 attendance rose by nearly 250,000 over the 2017 season that preceded that record level of spending.
  • Longtime Twins righty Kyle Gibson will embark on the next chapter of his career with the Rangers after agreeing to a three-year, $30MM deal last Wednesday. The former first-round pick apparently bet on himself in 2019, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter) that Minnesota had tried to sign Gibson to a two-year pact worth $17MM a year ago. Gibson, however, spurned what would’ve been the first multi-year guarantee of his career and came out ahead as a result. He ultimately earned $8.125MM in his final season of arbitration eligibility and will take that home on top of the additional $30MM he’ll be guaranteed with Texas once his deal is formally announced.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/28/19

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The latest minor league moves from around baseball…

  • The Twins have agreed to a minor league deal with left-hander Mitch Horacek, reporter Robert Murray tweets.  A ninth-round pick for the Orioles in the 2013 draft, Horacek has a 4.21 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and 2.97 K/BB rate over 658 2/3 career minor league innings, with the last two seasons spent in Colorado’s farm system.  Horacek has worked exclusively as a reliever for the last three years and he got his first taste of Triple-A ball in 2019, though he posted a disastrous 18.75 ERA over 12 frames for Albuquerque of the Pacific Coast League.  The 27-year-old did deliver much better numbers at the Double-A level, however, and Minnesota could be betting that Horacek performs better in a less homer-happy environment than the PCL.

Jorge Polanco Undergoes Arthroscopic Surgery On Right Ankle

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Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco is expected to need six weeks of recovery after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right ankle last Friday, according to an announcement from the team.  The surgery was intended to fix what was described as a chronic issue for Polanco, and the All-Star should be fully recovered by the start of Spring Training.

Polanco was a major part of the Twins’ 101-win season, hitting .295/.356/.485 with 22 homers over 704 plate appearances.  Only six players in all of baseball racked up more PA than Polanco in 2019, and only 35 players appeared in more than Polanco’s 153 games played.  Though his defense was something of a mixed bag depending on the metric (a -15.7 UZR/150 but +1 Defensive Runs Saved), Polanco still an immensely valuable player, posting 4.0 fWAR for Minnesota.

This career year was just about the best possible rebound for Polanco, who had something to prove following a 2018 season that saw him receive an 80-game PED suspension.  Polanco’s performance immediately made the Twins look wise for locking up the shortstop on a five-year, $25.75MM extension last February.  That deal also contains a pair of club options ($10.5MM for 2024, $12MM for 2025) that could keep Polanco in the Twin Cities through his age-31 season.

Super-utilityman Marwin Gonzalez and infielder Ehire Adrianza are on hand for the Twins if Polanco does need any extra recovery time, though by all accounts this appears to be a fairly minor surgery.  Polanco didn’t appear too bothered by his ankle problem during his very durable 2019, though he did post only a .706 OPS over 102 PA in September.  He rebounded for a .273/.429/.545 slash line over 14 PA in the ALDS, as Polanco was one of the few Twins who performed at the plate during the club’s three-game sweep at the Yankees’ hands.

Latest On Twins, Zack Wheeler

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Minnesota’s among the teams chasing free agent Zack Wheeler, but the Twins haven’t made the right-hander an offer yet, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News reports. However, Wolfson suggests it’s only a matter of time before that will change. The club reportedly met with Wheeler’s representatives earlier this month.

Whether it’s Minnesota or another team that winds up signing Wheeler, it may have to fork over a nine-figure contract for the former Met. An executive told Dan Hayes of The Athletic that Wheeler should be able to land a five-year deal worth between $100MM and $110MM. A contract worth $100MM or more for Wheeler wouldn’t be particularly surprising, as MLBTR predicted he’d land exactly that much when the offseason got underway three weeks ago.

It obviously remains to be seen whether the Twins will be the team that emerges on top in the bidding for Wheeler, but the reigning AL Central champions’ need for starting pitching is obvious. Righty Jake Odorizzi made the somewhat surprising decision to accept the Twins’ $17.8MM qualifying offer earlier this month, thus patching a hole for the team, but he and Jose Berrios are the only proven rotation options penciled in for next year. The Twins lost free agent Kyle Gibson to the Rangers on Wednesday, while both Michael Pineda and Martin Perez are currently on the open market.

Odorizzi’s decision represents an instance in which the Twins have benefited from the qualifying offer system, though it’ll hurt them a bit if they sign Wheeler (or fellow standout free-agent pitchers Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg or Madison Bumgarner). Adding a single free agent who rejected a QO, as Wheeler, Cole, Strasburg and Bumgarner did, would cost Minnesota its third-highest draft pick in 2020. Of course, that shouldn’t be a prohibitive price for a club that likely expects to reign over its division again next year and compete for a World Series.

Mets To Hire Jeremy Hefner As Pitching Coach

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NOVEMBER 27: Hefner and the Mets are in agreement on a deal, per Heyman (Twitter link).

NOVEMBER 26: Twins assistant pitching coach Jeremy Hefner “is the Mets’ choice” to be their new pitching coach, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. SNY’s Andy Martino tweets that the deal isn’t quite yet finalized but could be by next week. If and when a deal is complete, Hefner will replace interim pitching coach Phil Regan, who stepped up when the club parted ways with veteran coach Dave Eiland back in June.

Hefner, still just 33 years old, pitched for the Mets as recently as 2012-13 but called his playing career quits after a 2016 run with the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate. He joined the Twins the following season as an advance scout. Hefner held that role for two seasons in Minnesota, helping to establish game plans for pitchers, devise defensive shifts and also use his experience as a recently retired player to best boil down data from the team’s analytics department for the players and coaching staff. Minnesota made Hefner its assistant pitching coach for the 2019 campaign, and that marks his lone season of experience on a Major League coaching staff to date.

Still, Hefner has been viewed as a rising star in the coaching ranks since latching on with the Twins and will seemingly get his first look at a top coaching spot with the only team for which he ever pitched at the MLB level. Hefner’s embracing of newer data and his recent experience as a player has become an increasingly desirable skill set for clubs both in terms of managerial and coaching searches.

Assuming the agreement does indeed go through, Hefner will be the second member of the Twins coaching staff to be hired away by another club this winter. Hitting coach James Rowson has already been plucked away by Miami, and it’s still possible that bench coach Derek Shelton could be hired as the next manager of the Pirates. Minnesota elevated an internal replacement, Edgar Varela, for Rowson yesterday.

MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo writes that the Mets plan to formally announce their new-look coaching staff all at once — perhaps sometime next week.

Twins To Sign Blaine Hardy, Juan Graterol, Ryan Garton

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12:11pm: Backstop Juan Graterol and righty Ryan Garton are also heading to the Minnesota org, according to Triple-A communications director Nate Rowan.

Graterol, 30, spent some time with Minny in 2018 and has appeared briefly in each of the past four MLB campaigns. Garton, who is closing in on his own 30th birthday, has thrown 64 1/3 innings of 4.90 ERA ball in the bigs. Last year, he provided the Mariners’ top affiliate with a 3.99 ERA with 10.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 65 1/3 innings of action.

10:41am: The Twins have agreed to a minor-league deal with southpaw Blaine Hardy, according to MLB.com’s Jason Beck (via Twitter). Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN had recently reported that the sides were nearing agreement (Twitter link).

This pact comes with an invitation to participate in the MLB side of spring camp for the Minnesota resident. But if an opportunity arises for him to pitch abroad — where he might have greater earning power — then the deal includes a provision requiring the Twins to grant him his release or put him on the MLB roster within 48 hours. Otherwise, there’s a standard opt-out date in June.

Hardy, 32, has been a consistent presence in the AL Central for quite some time now. He broke into the professional ranks with the Royals and reached the majors with the Tigers, ultimately throwing 289 2/3 innings of 3.73 ERA ball in Detroit.

It’ll be interesting to see if the Twins have some new tricks for Hardy to try out. The veteran managed to gut out a 4.47 earned run average last year but didn’t impress ERA estimators. He struggled in particular against same-handed hitters while generally succeeding against righties. Perhaps a few tweaks could unlock something for Hardy.

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