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Free Agent Stock Watch: Brian Fuentes

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Brian Fuentes was in the right place at the right time in the 2008-09 offseason, coming off a 30 save season when several clubs were willing to spend big on closers.  He fell 20 games finished short of having his 2011 option vest, so the 35-year-old lefty is headed for free agency.  Let's assess his position.

The Pros

  • Fuentes dominated lefties this year: 11.57 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, no home runs in 14 innings.  Also in the small sample department: Fuentes was untouchable in 9.6 innings with the Twins.
  • Assuming Mariano Rivera doesn't field offers from multiple teams, Fuentes can make a case as the second-best free agent closer unless Bobby Jenks is non-tendered.
  • He's a Type B free agent who won't be offered arbitration anyway, so there's no draft pick cost.  Last time around, the Rockies snagged the Angels' #32 pick and chose Tim Wheeler while also taking Rex Brothers in the supplemental round.

The Cons

  • Fuentes is 35 and dealt with back pain this year.
  • He's prone to free passes, with a 3.8 BB/9 on the season.
  • He allowed just 5.8 hits per nine innings and a .227 BABIP, figures that he's highly unlikely to replicate.
  • Fuentes had the highest flyball rate in baseball (58.5%) among those with 40 innings pitched.
  • He's been ordinary against righties the past two years, according to his FanGraphs splits page.
  • Fuentes' price tag will come with the typical closer inflation.

The Verdict

Fuentes may come into the offseason seeking two years and a closer gig, but the supply of available stoppers outweighs the vacancies.  He may have to settle for one year and $4MM unless Beverly Hills Sports Council can create a bidding war.

Odds & Ends: Duncan, Mets, Dodgers, Baylor

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Four years ago today, the Cubs signed Starlin Castro as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic.  He became the team's starting shortstop in May at the age of 20, debuting with a .300/.347/.408 performance.  Links for Monday:

Odds & Ends: Wilson, Twins, Greinke, Dodgers

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As the Giants take a 2-1 lead in the NLCS, let's look at some news from around the baseball world…

  • Though C.J. Wilson will get a big arbitration raise, ESPN's Jason A. Churchill thinks the Rangers are more likely to keep the southpaw rather than put him on the trade market.
  • The Twins need another top-flight starter, and Jim Souhan of the Minneapolis Star Tribune thinks the team should try to acquire Zack Greinke.  His proposed offer of Delmon Young, Kevin Slowey and a prospect won't be enough to get it done, especially since Kansas City would be sending Greinke to a division rival.
  • Dodgers GM Ned Colletti says the club's payroll will increase in 2011, according to Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times.  (Twitter link)
  • Detroit "will make [a] strong push" to sign Victor Martinez this winter, tweets The Denver Post's Troy Renck.  The Rockies, meanwhile, are a "longshot" to sign the free agent catcher.
  • Also from Renck (via Twitter), Troy Tulowitzki isn't likely to give the Rockies a discount on his next contract since the six-year, $31MM deal he signed before the 2008 season has already proven to be very team-friendly.  Tulowitzki is locked up through 2013 and the Rockies have a team option (for $15MM) on him for 2014, so it'll be at least a couple of years before Colorado thinks about extending the star shortstop.
  • PGP of the DRaysBay.com blog looks at why Tampa Bay might think about trading Matt Garza and what he could fetch in a deal.
  • If Cliff Lee signs a six-year contract with the Yankees this winter, he could earn close to $200MM in salary and endorsement deals, estimates Forbes Magazine's Patrick Rishe.
  • Magic Johnson owning the Dodgers?  ESPN.com's J.A. Adande wants to see it happen.
  • Padres assistant GM Fred Uhlman Jr. will remain with the club, tweets MLB.com's Corey Brock.  There were rumors that Uhlman could head to Arizona to work with former Padres general manager Kevin Towers.
  • The Cardinals need to patch up the "rift" that has developed in the front office in recent years, writes Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  Gordon also looks at the Cardinals' minor league system and the team's last several drafts. 
  • Fangraphs' Pat Andriola looks at which teams did and didn't benefit from "the old guy discount" last winter.

Odds & Ends: Twins, Izturis, Rangers, Yankees

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Seven years ago today, Luis Castillo popped a ball up into the stands at Wrigley Field and a fan caught it, even though Moises Alou was right there. The Cubs were five outs away from clinching a World Series berth, but they ended up losing the 'Steve Bartman game' and the 2003 NLCS. Here are your links for Thursday…

Gardenhire Will Manage Twins Beyond 2011

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2:16pm: Backing up what we've already heard, Kelsie Smith from the Saint Paul Pioneer Press spoke with Twins' GM Bill Smith, who says Gardenhire's postseason track record won't affect his job security at all (Twitter link). Gardenhire is just 6-21 in his postseason career.

1:49pm: The Twins saw their postseason hopes swept away by the Yankees yet again last night, but it appears Twins CEO Jim Pohlad hasn't lost faith in manager Ron Gardenhire as a result. The Minneapolis Star Tribune's La Velle E. Neal III and Joe Christensen write that Ron Gardenhire will receive an extension beyond his current contract, which runs through 2011.

''That's just such a nonissue,'' Pohlad said. ''We all know that's a no-brainer. We are going to get something done.''

Since becoming the Twins' manager, Gardenhire has racked up an impressive regular season record of 803-656, placing him 71st on the all-time wins list for managers. He's led the Twins to six AL Central Division titles and has seen his team notch 90 or more wins five times.

Gardenhire's Twins have only managed one postseason series win, however, back in 2002 against the Oakland A's. They wound up losing to the Angels in the ALCS that season, with the Angels going on to win the World Series. Following their 2010 sweep, the Twins have lost 12 consecutive postseason games, dating back to 2004.

Pohlad says Gardenhire has yet to bring up the issue and ask for a new contract, and according to the article, he's content to wait for the Twins to approach him about his extension:

''I have a contract next year… I'm happy about that part.''

For all of the praise he's received, Gardenhire has yet to win the American League Manager of the Year award, but he's considered to be a leading candidate for the honor in 2010.

Thome Leaning Towards Playing In 2011

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2:06pm: Joe Christensen and La Velle E. Neal III from the Minneapolis Star Tribune also spoke to Thome about a potential return in 2011. Christensen and Neal remind us that Thome has repeatedly stated how much he enjoyed Minnesota, and provide this quote from the man with 589 home runs to his name:

"I love the game. I'd love to come back, I really would, and Minnesota was a great place, so we'll see how the winter goes. It would be great."

My own speculation, but Thome's potential return to Minnesota might depend on the Twins' decision on Jason Kubel's $5.25MM club option for 2011. Kubel, expected to be the regular DH in 2010, was forced into right field when Michael Cuddyer switched to first base following Justin Morneau's season-ending concussion. That lineup juggle opened the door for Thome's strong 2010. After posting such impressive numbers, he may be able to find more playing time with a different contender if Kubel returns.

Kubel's .249/.323/.427 line doesn't look nearly as impressive as Thome's, but he gives the Twins the options of playing him in the outfield (though his career -18.9 UZR/150 in the outfield doesn't inspire confidence). He did hit .300/.369/.539 with 28 home runs in 2009, so he's capable of being a highly productive DH. The Twins hold a $350K buyout on Kubel's option.

9:14am: The Twins' season came to an abrupt and disappointing end last night, but it sounds like Jim Thome won't allow his career to suffer the same fate. Thome kept it short and sweet with Kelsie Smith and Brian Murphy of The St. Paul Pioneer Press after the game, saying "Yeah, I think I'm coming back [for 2011]." Last month he admitted that retirement would have been tempting if the Twins won it all. 

The 40-year-old Thome became a folk hero in Minnesota this season, something that tends to happen when you hit .283/.412/.627 with 25 homers in 340 plate appearances. He absolutely annihilated righthanded pitching, hitting .302/.445/.698 with 19 homers off pitchers of the opposite hand. At .241/.298/.471, he wasn't all that terrible against lefties either. With 589 career homers to his credit, Thome should become the eighth member of the 600 home run club next summer.

Thome signed a one-year deal worth just $1.5MM last offseason (he did earn another $200K in bonuses tied to plate appearances), the bargain signing of the year. MLBTR's Mark Polishuk looked at Thome's free agent stock two weeks ago, and you have to figure it's pretty high right now.

MLBTR's Steve Adams also contributed to this post.

Cafardo’s Latest: Matsuzaka, Managers, Konerko

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Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe spoke to nearly a dozen scouts and executives and found that there would be substantial interest in Daisuke Matsuzaka if the Red Sox made the righthander available in a trade this offseason. Most of those polled believe Boston would have to kick in some money to offset the two-years and $20MM left on his deal, but it's unclear what they would want in return. As Cafardo reminds us, there's no such thing as too much pitching depth, so the Sox could simply hold onto him.

As far as teams that could have potential interest in Dice-K, Cafardo names the Mariners, Mets, Dodgers, Brewers, Rangers, and Tigers. Here are the rest of his rumors…

  • There's talk that the Red Sox might go after Yu Darvish if he's posted this winter, and there is a little bit of a New England connection there: Darvish's father attended school in the area.
  • Doug Melvin said he will go outside the organization to replace departed manager Ken Macha, which rules out Dale Sveum and Willie Randolph.
  • Jim Hendry and Cubs ownership likes what interim manager Mike Quade got out of his players down the stretch, so the sentiment to retain him is growing.
  • Fredi Gonzalez turned down a chance to interview with the Cubbies, and it's looking more and more likely that he will take over for the retiring Bobby Cox in Atlanta.
  • Alex Anthopoulos is looking at third base/bench coaches for his next manager, while Neal Huntington might dip into his Indians' roots to fill the Pirates' managerial vacancy.
  • Paul Konerko indicated that contract length won't be much of a factor when he hits free agency this winter because he isn't sure how much longer he wants to play. Kenny Williams indicated that there might not be enough room in the budget for the White Sox to bring back their captain, especially if they seeks out a lefty bat as expected.
  • Jason Varitek wants to return to the Red Sox but the team is thinking bigger picture with Jarrod Saltalamacchia on board. Cafardo suggests the Marlins as a potential landing spot for Varitek, where he would work with the team's young pitchers.
  • Meanwhile, the Sox could sign John Buck as a stopgap while they wait for Salty to establish himself.
  • Teams in need of a second baseman are very interested in Jed Lowrie, though at least one scout thinks he can stick at shortstop. The 26-year-old hit .287/.381/.526 in 197 plate appearances this year.
  • Despite a strong finish (1.41 ERA in his last ten starts), the Cubs would still like to move Carlos Zambrano. Of course, they're going to have to eat some of the $55MM left of his contract to do so.
  • Cafardo thinks that Carl Pavano could command a three-year deal worth $30MM as a free agent this winter, but he'd have to give a bit of a discount to return to Minnesota. The Twins have shown a willingness to spend in the last year, so this will be an interesting negotiation for them.

Mike Redmond Retires

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Catcher Mike Redmond has retired after 13 big league seasons, he told Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.  Redmond signed an $850K big league deal with the Indians during the offseason, but was released in July.  He plans to look for a new job in baseball.

Redmond batted .287/.342/.358 in 764 career games for the Marlins, Twins, and Indians, catching over 5,300 innings.  He earned about $9MM in his career.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jim Thome

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Jim Thome needs 15 more plate appearances to reach 350 for the season, which would unlock an $0.1MM incentive bonus within the one-year, $1.5MM deal he signed with Minnesota in the offseason.  Thome has already hit two such plate appearance clauses, boosting his season total up to $1.7MM — still a huge bargain for the Twins given Thome's team-leading 25 homers and .631 slugging percentage.

The future Hall-of-Famer said he might retire a champion if the Twins win the World Series, but in all likelihood, Thome will be back in 2011 to gun for the 600-homer club.  (Thome enters Thursday's action with 589 career long balls.)  With so many teams looking for offense this winter, here's what interested clubs should be considering when looking at Thome.

The Pros

  • Thome has a whopping 1.155 OPS against right-handed pitching.
  • Though he'll easily command more than he did in 2010, Thome is still a bargain compared to pricier DH options on the market like Adam Dunn, David Ortiz or Manny Ramirez.
  • He just missed out on Type B free agent status, so a team can sign Thome without draft pick compensation.
  • Thome is universally regarded as one of the most well-liked and well-respected players in the game.  This intangible factor shouldn't be ignored when a general manager is deciding whom to bring into a clubhouse, especially in the case of a young team looking for a veteran presence.

The Cons

  • Thome hasn't been anything but a DH or a pinch-hitter for the last three seasons.  His lack of a defensive position will limit his market to American League teams.
  • The 40-year-old Thome has battled nagging thigh and back injuries this season and can't be counted on to play every day.
  • Along those same lines, Thome's slash line against lefties this season (in 91 PA) is .238/.297/.476.  Thome will need to be paired with a right-handed hitting DH who can pick up the slack against southpaws.

The Verdict

It seems another one-year contract is in the cards for Thome, who probably wouldn't have it any other way given that he's toying with retirement.  Despite the fact that he's only suited for a platoon DH role, Thome will probably be able to get a deal worth as much as $5MM.  Such a total would still be a steal if Thome can replicate his 2010 campaign.

Which AL teams could take an interest in Thome?  Minnesota is the first choice; Thome has become a folk hero at Target Field due to his role in the Twins' AL Central title and the club already has interest in bringing him back.

Aside from the Twins, the Red Sox (if they don't pick up Ortiz's 2011 option), Tigers, Angels, Rays and White Sox could also give Thome a look.  Chicago pursuing Thome would be rather ironic, since it was the team's failure to pursue Thome last winter and subsequent lack of production from the DH role that was allegedly one of the factors in the Ozzie Guillen/Kenny Williams tension over the summer.  New York might also have an interest; if the Yankees stick to their plan of using the designated hitter spot to give Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada a break from playing the field, they could DH those two against lefties and sign Thome to start against righties. 

Baltimore, Oakland, Seattle and (if Adam Lind moves to first base) Toronto are teams who are looking for offense and might have an opening at DH.  If Thome is still looking for his first World Series title, however, he's more likely to sign with a contender.

Poll: The Best Record In Baseball

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There's just a little more than a week left in the season, and with the exception of the NL West and NL Wild Card, the playoff teams are all but set. Now it's just a matter of sorting out the seeding.

For most of the season it's been assumed that whoever won the AL East would finish the season with the best record in all of baseball, but suddenly that's not the case any more. The Phillies staked a claimed to best record with last night's win, their 11th in a row to put their season record at 93-61. Both the Rays and Twins sit half-a-game behind them at 92-61, and the Yankees are within a game of Philly with a 92-62 record. No other team is within six games of the Phillies.

Since the NL won the All Star Game and thus clinched home field advantage in the World Series, having the best record in baseball isn't worth much beyond bragging rights. That might not mean anything to the teams, but it certainly means something to us fans. Remember, you can always check out the reverse standings (for draft order purposes) at our page, but it's time to vote…

Which team will finish with the best record in baseball?

Click here to vote, and here to see the results.

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