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The Mariners Need To Shake Up Their Offense

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Mariners fans entered the season with something of a sour outlook on the 2025 season. That's understandable, given an offseason in which the front office was clearly handcuffed by payroll limitations and a paper-thin trade market for big league hitters. Armed with a only a reported $15-16MM to patch over multiple needs in the infield, there wasn't a lot out there for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander to realistically pursue.

Seattle wound up rolling the dice on a handful of cost-effective infield options. Jorge Polanco returned on a one-year deal with a conditional player option. Donovan Solano snagged a $3.5MM guarantee. Rowdy Tellez signed a minor league deal and made the team after a big spring showing (.298/.320/.574 in 50 plate appearances).

Frustration was understandable. The Mariners had made a big splash at the prior deadline, reeling in Randy Arozarena from the Rays, but fans hoping for a similarly bold strike in the offseason after another narrow playoff miss were left wanting.

That frustration likely faded for many as the Mariners raced out to a blistering start. On May 7, they sat with a 22-14 record, leading the American League West by a three-game margin and sporting a +31 run differential. One might imagine that the Mariners were again being carried by their brilliant rotation, but that wasn't the case -- at least not entirely. George Kirby has still yet to throw a pitch in 2025 as he recovers from some shoulder inflammation. Logan Gilbert hit the injured list on April 25 and remains there. Bryan Woo has been brilliant. Luis Castillo has been good. Gilbert was his typically excellent self prior to his flexor injury. But the Mariners' starting pitching, as a whole, has been a middle-of-the-pack unit.

Instead, Seattle's hot start was largely attributable to a surprisingly potent offense. Through that previously mentioned May 7 date, M's hitters were slashing .247/.340/.415, resulting in a 122 wRC+ that ranked third in the majors. They were fourth in home runs, seventh in runs scored, 12th in batting average, second in on-base percentage and ninth in slugging percentage.

In the week-plus since that time, the Mariners have lost five of six games and posted a collective .206/.259/.326 batting line (70 wRC+). Typically, there's little sense panicking over a week of poor results, but there was already reason to be a bit skeptical of Seattle's sudden offensive prowess. Good as Cal Raleigh is, he's not going to continue at a 50-homer pace. Polanco isn't going to keep his OPS north of 1.000. J.P. Crawford isn't sustaining a .410 OBP, nor will Leo Rivas keep hitting .341. Those timely early-season hot streaks buoyed the Seattle offense but can't all be sustained.

The Mariners seemingly recognize that some new blood is needed; they claimed Leody Taveras off waivers from the division-rival Rangers and took on about $3.7MM in salary to do so. That was an understandable move with both Victor Robles and Luke Raley on the injured list for the foreseeable future, but it shouldn't be the only one the Mariners consider.

Let's run through a few easy ways to bolster a lineup that is facing even more pressure than usual now that Bryce Miller has joined rotation-mates Kirby and Gilbert on the injured list...

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Looking Ahead To Club Options: AL West

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Over the coming days, MLBTR will look at next offseason’s option class. Steve Adams highlighted the players who can opt out of their current deals, while we’ll take a division-by-division look at those whose contracts contain either team or mutual options. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

We started with a look at the NL West yesterday. While every team in that division had at least one player whose deal contained a club or mutual option, its American League counterpart only has two teams that are slated to have any option decisions.

Athletics

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Houston Astros

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Los Angeles Angels

The Angels brought in Newman on a $2.75MM contract early last offseason. The contact-hitting infielder was coming off a solid .278/.311/.375 slash over 111 games in a utility role in Arizona. He added necessary shortstop depth with Zach Neto opening the season on the injured list after last fall’s shoulder surgery. Newman had a rough Spring Training, though, and the Angels went with minor league signee Tim Anderson as their primary shortstop until Neto’s return tonight.

Newman’s cold spring has carried into his early regular season work. He has managed three hits, all singles, without taking a walk in 23 trips to the plate. Newman has never walked much or hit for any kind of power, but he generally puts the ball in play and can move around the infield. Neto’s return means he won’t get much playing time at shortstop, while Kyren Paris and Luis Rengifo are respectively getting the majority of work at second and third base.

Note: José Quijada and Evan White each have club options on their respective contracts. They’ve both been outrighted off the 40-man roster and are very likely to be bought out. If they’re added back to the 40-man, the Angels would control both players via arbitration even if they decline the options.

Seattle Mariners

Garver’s two-year, $24MM contract remains the only multi-year deal that the Mariners have awarded to a free agent hitter under Jerry Dipoto’s leadership. It hasn’t gone well. While Garver’s injury history made that a somewhat risky investment, he looked like a good bet to hit whenever he was on the field. Garver was coming off a .270/.370/.500 showing for the Rangers during their World Series season, and he brought a career .252/.342/.483 batting line to T-Mobile Park.

The 34-year-old’s production tanked almost immediately. He managed a career-high 430 plate appearances last season, but it came with easily his worst rate stats in a full season. Garver hit .172/.286/.341 while striking out at a 31% rate. It wasn’t simply a product of Seattle’s pitcher-friendly park. His .186/.290/.324 line on the road wasn’t any better than his .153/.281/.363 showing at home. He doesn’t look to be on the verge of a rebound. Garver has begun this season with four singles, six walks, and zero extra-base hits across 34 trips to the plate.

The Mariners worked out an extension with the hard-throwing Muñoz during the 2021-22 offseason. He’d made all of one appearance in a Seattle uniform at the time. Muñoz had undergone Tommy John surgery while a member of the Padres in 2020. Seattle acquired him early in the rehab process. They believed he’d blossom into a late-game weapon. They were right.

Muñoz has rattled off three straight sub-3.00 ERA seasons since signing his extension. He has begun this year with 10 scoreless innings, recording 13 strikeouts with an AL-leading seven saves. He carries a 2.35 earned run average with a huge 34.7% strikeout rate over 184 frames in a Seattle uniform. This has quickly become one of the most team-friendly contracts in the game.

The option is essentially a lock unless he suffers a significant injury that’d cost him all of next season. The team has respective $8MM and $10MM options for 2027 and ’28, so they could keep him at below-market rates for three years. Next season’s option has a $6MM base value. It’d climb by $250K apiece if Muñoz finishes 20, 30, 40 and 45 games this year. He’s already at eight games finished and should get to 45 by season’s end. The option price will probably end up at $7MM, but it’s an easy call for the front office.

Polanco’s option begins as an $8MM mutual provision, but he can convert it to a player option if he hits a vesting threshold. If he reaches 450 plate appearances this season and avoids a lower half injury that’d require him to begin next season on the injured list — which is protection for the team given his recent knee concerns — it’d become a $6MM player option. Getting to 550 plate appearances this year would push the player option price to $8MM.

If Polanco does not hit the vesting threshold, it’d remain an $8MM mutual option with a $750K buyout. He has been dinged up by knee and side discomfort that has limited him but not prevented him from playing. The switch-hitting Polanco is currently unable to play the infield or hit right-handed in games. He’s a lefty-swinging designated hitter for now. Yet he’s been on such a tear that the Mariners will happily live with the limitations.

Polanco has connected on three homers and a pair of doubles through 13 games. He’s hitting .378. That not only leads the team but ranks sixth in the majors among hitters with at least 40 plate appearances. He’s obviously not going to keep up this pace, but Polanco was fairly consistently an above-average hitter during his run as Minnesota’s second baseman. The Mariners felt that last year’s career-worst production was attributable to the knee injury through which he played a good chunk of the season. Polanco has done his best to prove that right so far.

Texas Rangers

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Mariners Notes: Bellinger, Hoerner, Payroll

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The Mariners have been connected to a couple of Cubs recently, with recent rumors that they had discussed both infielder Nico Hoerner and first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger. Adam Jude of The Seattle Times took a look at those talks and some other Mariner topics ahead of next week’s Winter Meetings.

Both players are sensible targets for the Mariners, who have infield vacancies and have been trying to cure their strikeout woes for a while. The club’s hitters were punched out at a 25.9% clip in 2023, with only the Twins having a higher rate that season. The M’s moved on from players like Teoscar Hernández, Eugenio Suárez and Jarred Kelenic in an attempt to improve this but the plan backfired. New additions like Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco all struggled with strikeouts themselves, so the M’s actually saw the team-wide rate jump to 26.8% in 2024, tied with the Rockies for the highest in the majors.

Hoerner has only been punched out in 12% of his plate appearances thus far. Bellinger has a higher career strikeout rate of 21.1% but he’s finished each of the past two seasons at 15.6%. Beyond the contact stuff, both players could also fit Seattle’s need for infielders. They turned down a club option on Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. They traded Ty France last year and Justin Turner became a free agent at season’s end.

They are reportedly looking to add at both corners, supplementing shortstop J.P. Crawford. At second base, they are reportedly content enough with using Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss until prospect Cole Young forces his way into the picture.

Luke Raley could be part of the first base solution, though he struggles against lefties and would need to be platooned. He could also be moved to outfield if the M’s add an everyday first baseman. They have interest in re-signing Turner or reuniting with old friend Carlos Santana, but it makes sense that they would consider Bellinger with the Cubs reportedly determined to move either him or Seiya Suzuki and free up their position player mix.

However, pre Jude’s report, the financial components of a Bellinger trade are a factor. The Mariners are reportedly planning to increase payroll next year, but not by much. Jude pegs their spending range at $150-155MM and says they have about $15MM of room at the moment. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged the club’s Opening Day payroll at $140MM last year, so that range tracks as a modest bump. RosterResource currently projects the club for a $146MM payroll next year, which seems to be just a tad higher than what Jude is suggesting.

Bellinger’s current contract wouldn’t fit into those parameters. He’s slated to make $27.5MM this year and then will have to decide between a $5MM buyout or a $25MM salary for 2026. As such, Jude suggests that the Mariners would have to include Haniger or Garver in the deal to balance out the money a bit. The Cubs wouldn’t have much interest in Haniger, since they already have an outfield surplus. On top of that, he’s coming off a poor season and is going to make $15.5MM next year.

Garver is a better fit for the Cubs since his primary defensive position is catcher, a spot they are looking to upgrade. However, he’s been injured quite often and become more of a designated hitter over time. He’s also coming off a rough campaign and will make $11.5MM next year, plus a $1MM buyout on a 2026 mutual option.

Perhaps the contract situation will stand in the way of a deal coming together. There’s also Bellinger’s inconsistency and opt-out situation to consider. After some rough seasons where Bellinger was seemingly held back by injuries, he had a nice bounceback in 2023. He hit 26 home runs, slashed .307/.356/.525 and stole 20 bases, leading FanGraphs to credit him with 4.4 wins above replacement. But he couldn’t repeat that in 2024, producing a .266/.325/.426 line while stealing just nine bases and spending less time in center field due to the emergence of Pete Crow-Armstrong. His fWAR tally was just 2.2 this year, half of the prior year despite playing in the same number of games.

Bellinger declined to trigger an opt-out in his contract at the end of that middling season but has another opt-out next year. That makes him a tricky gamble for any acquiring club. The best case scenario is that you get him back in good form and he leaves after year one, but even that scenario costs $32.5MM. The downside is that he doesn’t get back to that level and sticks around as an overpaid part of the 2026 roster.

As for Hoerner, it was recently reported that the Mariners had discussed him with the Cubs, but it wasn’t clear how interested they were. Today, Jude says the M’s “covet” Hoerner, so it seems the interest is real from Seattle’s end.

He would be an interesting fit as he is mostly a glove-first player. He has hit .278/.338/.381 in his career for a 102 wRC+. But thanks to his excellent defense and baserunning, he was been worth roughly 4-5 fWAR in each of the past three seasons.

He came up as a shortstop but has been mostly playing second base in deference to Dansby Swanson. He’s generally perceived as capable of returning to shortstop on another club, but the Mariners already have Crawford. Unless the M’s have designs on moving Crawford, then it seems they view Hoerner as a good option to help with their uncertainty at third or perhaps second base.

In terms of salary, Hoerner is going to make $11.5MM next year and $12MM in 2026. That makes him a far better financial fit than Bellinger. Per Jude, the Cubs are looking for MLB-ready help whereas the Mariners would rather surrender prospects. There has been a lot of trade speculation around the Seattle rotation since it’s so strong but the depth is actually not great and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said that surrendering a big league starter is “Plan Z”.

Mariners Notes: Garver, Santos, Speier

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The Mariners had an injury scare this evening as catcher Mitch Garver was strike in the wrist by a pitch from Twins right-hander Joe Ryan during this afternoon’s game and exited with what Seattle termed a right wrist contusion. As noted by MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer, manager Scott Servais told reporters after the game that x-rays on Garver’s wrist came back negative, but that the club doesn’t plan on making a decision about next steps regarding the 33-year-old until Tuesday given the club has tomorrow off.

Garver came to the Mariners on a two-year, $26MM deal over the offseason. The longtime catcher had gradually seen more and more of his time come at DH during his tenure with the Rangers and joined Seattle ticketed for a regular role at DH while occasionally spelling Raleigh behind the plate as well. Things haven’t exactly gone according to plan for Garver half a season into his Mariners tenure, however, as he’s slashed just .172/.291/.353 in 71 games this year. While he’s hit for decent power and walked at an excellent 13.5% clip, the combination of a massive 30.9% strikeout rate and his deflated .214 BABIP have left him below average overall with a wRC+ of just 90. That’s certainly passable production from a catcher, but far more is to be expected from a player who is essentially being paid to be a full-time DH.

The potential injury comes as a particularly frustrating time for the Mariners as Garver had begun to heat up in the month of June. In 91 trips to the plate this month entering play tonight, Garver had slashed a much more palatable .187/.319/.453 with a 122 wRC+. That improved production is generally backed up by solid peripherals, as well; Garver’s strikeout rate, while still elevated, has dipped to a more manageable 28.6% this month, and he’s walked at an enormous 16.5% clip. A BABIP of just .200 suggests that further positive regression could be in store for Garver, though it now seems possible that will have to wait depending on how much his wrist heals in the coming days.

Even in the event that Garver requires only a few days off, it’s possible the Mariners will look to make some sort of short-term roster move. After all, he and Raleigh are the only two catchers on the club’s active roster, meaning the club could be forced into a tough situation if Raleigh were to get hurt while Garver is down. The Mariners have Seby Zavala and Michael Perez as depth catching options at Triple-A, though neither is currently on the club’s 40-man roster.

In more positive Mariners news, a pair of key relievers appear to be making their way towards a return to action. Adam Jude of The Seattle Times relayed recently that, according to GM Justin Hollander, right-hander Gregory Santos is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment on Tuesday. Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Injury Tracker notes that lefty Gabe Speier is set to throw a bullpen session that same day.

The impending return of the two hurlers is excellent news for the Mariners. Santos, in particular, figured to handle late-inning duties for the club alongside closer Andres Munoz and veteran set-up man Ryne Stanek after the club swung a trade with the White Sox to acquire him just before the start of Spring Training. Unfortunately, that deal has yet to bear fruit as Santos has been sidelined the entire season to this point after suffering a lat strain in mid-March. He could prove to be an impactful arm for the Mariners in leverage situations once healthy enough to take the mound in the big leagues, however, as shown by his 3.39 ERA and 2.65 FIP in 66 1/3 innings of work with Chicago last year.

As for Speier, the lefty has missed the past month with rotator cuff issues but was in the midst of a frustrating 2024 season prior to his injury. In 22 appearances with Seattle this year, the lefty has struggled to a 6.06 ERA in spite of peripheral numbers that remain mostly solid. Speier has struck out a strong 29.3% of batters faced this year but has dealt with some poor fortune on batted balls and sequencing, as demonstrated by an elevated .325 BABIP allowed and an unsustainable strand rate of just 61.3%, far below the typical 70-75% range for the average hurler.

Not all of Speier’s struggles have been self-inflicted, of course; the lefty has allowed free passes at a worrying 13.3% clip this year, a massive change from the 5.1% walk rate he posted with the Mariners last season when he posted a 3.79 ERA and 3.35 FIP in 69 games. The Mariners will surely be hoping that’s the version of Speier they get back once he’s healthy enough to return, which MLB.com suggests is unlikely to be until after the All Star break.

MLBTR Podcast: Yamamoto Fallout, the Sale/Grissom Trade and Transaction Roundup

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Mariners Sign Mitch Garver

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The Mariners announced the signing of Mitch Garver to a two-year contract on Thursday afternoon.  The deal, which also includes a mutual option for 2026, reportedly guarantees the ISE Baseball client $24MM.  Seattle’s 40-man roster count sits at 37.

While Cal Raleigh is still Seattle’s top backstop, Garver gives the Mariners a prominent bat who can act as both a backup catcher and a regular presence at designated hitter.  This was the role Garver filled with aplomb for the Rangers last season, as he hit .270/.370/.500 with 19 homers over 344 plate appearances while mostly acting as a DH to allow All-Star Jonah Heim regular time behind the plate.  Garver was then the exclusive first-choice DH for the Rangers’ postseason run, as he hit .226/.317/.434 with three homers over 60 PA to help Texas capture its first World Series title.

It wasn’t an entirely perfect platform season for Garver, however, as he missed close to two full months early in the season due to a left knee sprain.  This continued a pattern of injuries that has plagued Garver throughout his career, as he has played in only 232 of a possible 546 games since the start of the 2020 season.  These health issues (ranging from forearm surgery, an intercostal strain, and knee, groin, and back problems) have contributed to Garver’s increasingly limited usage at catcher, as the move to a DH role should help him stay on the field with a bit more regularity.

This led to something of a tricky entry into free agency for Garver, as while he was technically the top catcher on the market, it would’ve been risky for a team to rely on him for anything more than a timeshare at the position.  As MLBTR’s Nick Deeds suggested back in October, Garver’s ideal landing spot might be “a team with another reliable catching option, so Garver could have a clear path to DH playing time and face less pressure to regularly suit up behind the plate.”

The Mariners fit the bill perfectly, with Raleigh establishing himself as the No. 1 catcher and a big power source over the last two seasons.  The switch-hitting Raleigh has much better numbers against right-handers than against left-handers, which dovetails nicely with the right-handed hitting Garver’s ability to mash left-handed pitching.

Tom Murphy signed with the Giants last week, though the M’s seemingly prepared for that departure by acquiring catcher Seby Zavala as part of the Eugenio Suarez trade with the Diamondbacks.  If Garver is going to primarily be a DH, the Mariners might still have room for Zavala on the roster to act as more of a traditional backup catcher.  This could avoid some roster maneuverings since Zavala is out of minor league options, so the Mariners would have to designate him for assignment and expose him to the waiver wire if they wanted to send him to the minor leagues.

Seattle was known to be looking for a power bat for its DH spot, and a right-handed hitter in particular to help balance out the lineup.  Such names as Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, and Rhys Hoskins were reportedly on the Mariners’ radar, but Garver will now join the roster on a two-year pact.  It’s a little less than the three-year, $39MM that MLBTR projected for Garver, though it’s still a nice payday for a player teams might’ve seen as more of a pure DH than as a regular backstop.

Adding a big bat at any price also helps change the narrative of what has been a distressing offseason for Mariners fans.  The Mariners are set to assume total ownership of the ROOT Sports Northwest regional sports network on January 1, and the related additional costs have reportedly limited the team’s ability to spend on player payroll.  President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said in early December that the Mariners’ payroll would rise from its estimated $140MM figure from 2023, yet most of the club’s moves prior to the Garver signing were designed to cut costs.  Suarez’s trade removed one big salary from the books, and Seattle then got rid of a lot more money in the five-player trade with the Braves that saw Jarred Kelenic dealt essentially as a manner of unloading the contracts of Marco Gonzales and Evan White.

As per Roster Resource, the Mariners’ projected 2024 payroll now sits at around $128.5MM with Garver’s salary added.  With the $140MM number from 2023 in mind, this still gives the M’s some flexibility to pursue further needs, like an outfielder or infield help.  Dipoto has downplayed the idea of trading from the team’s young pitching depth, yet that might be a more cost-effective way of obtaining position-player help than by signing another free agent.

Signing Garver already represents a departure for Dipoto in one sense, as he doesn’t often make notable splashes in free agency.  Remarkably, Garver is only the first position-player free agent (and only the fourth free agent whatsoever) Dipoto has signed to a multi-year contract during his eight years running Seattle’s front office.  This might imply that Garver could be it for the Mariners this winter as far as relatively notable free agent signings go, or perhaps Dipoto will change tactics and look at other free agents in order to further bolster the lineup.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Mariners and Garver had agreed to a two-year, $24MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Rangers Do Not Extend Qualifying Offer To Mitch Garver

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Rangers catcher/designated hitter Mitch Garver did not receive a qualifying offer, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (X link). He hits free agency without draft compensation attached as the clear #1 catching option in the class.

Garver played his way to borderline QO candidacy with a huge second half. He finished the season with a .270/.370/.500 line with 19 home runs through 344 plate appearances. He hit at a league average level during the World Series run, finishing postseason play with a .226/.317/.434 slash with a trio of homers in 14 games.

Turning 33 in January, Garver will be capped by his age and injury history in terms of contract length. He’s a lock for a multi-year deal, likely a three-year pact in his first trip to the open market. Gary Sánchez, Tom Murphy and Víctor Caratini are the best catchers beyond him in the class. If Texas lets Garver walk, they’ll likely bring in a veteran backup behind Jonah Heim who pushes Sam Huff to third on the depth chart.

Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.

No-Doubters

This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.

Likely Recipient

Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.

The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.

Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.

Possible Candidates

Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.

That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.

This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.

Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.

Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.

With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.

Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.

A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.

While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.

Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.

The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.

In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.

If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.

Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.

The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.

A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.

Long Shots

Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.

Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.

Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.

That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.

Ineligible

Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.

AL Notes: Garver, Eovaldi, Red Sox, Kirilloff

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Rangers fans received news today regarding catcher and DH Mitch Garver, who was hit in the rib cage by a pitch from Astros right-hander Bryan Abreu during the sixth inning of Game 7 of the ALCS on Monday. Garver was removed for a pinch-hitter prior to what would have been his next trip to the plate in the eighth inning. Fortunately, however, the Rangers indicated yesterday that an MRI showed Garver’s rib cage had sustained no fractures. Of course, as noted by The Athletic’s Levi Weaver, it’s still possible that the incident could impact Garver during the World Series against the Diamondbacks even as he avoided serious injury.

Garver’s had a solid 2023 with the bat for Texas, though his injury history and lack of time behind the plate in 2023 make for an unusual platform season ahead of his first foray into free agency this November. After slashing .270/.370/.500 in 344 trips to the plate during the regular season, Garver has hit even better for the club in the postseason with a .294/.368/.529 line across 38 plate appearances, with two home runs, two doubles, and a strikeout rate of just 15.8%. If the Rangers don’t feel the need to afford him extra rest after his injury scare, Garver figures to factor into the club’s lineup regularly after drawing starts at DH during every game of the ALCS.

More from around the American League…

  • Sticking with the Rangers, veteran right-hander Nathan Eovaldi has been a key cog in the club’s success this season. After posting a 3.63 ERA in 144 innings of work during the regular season, Eovaldi has posted quality starts all four times he’s taken the mound for Texas this postseason, with a 2.42 ERA and 26.9% strikeout rate in 26 innings of work. Eovaldi’s success with the Rangers this year prompted MassLive’s Chris Cotillo to look back at Eovaldi’s free agency last offseason, during which there was mutual interest in a reunion with the Red Sox. Cotillo notes that Boston offered the veteran righty a three-year, $51MM deal in early December, though after Eovaldi decided to hold out for a better offer, the club’s later signings of players like Kenley Jansen and Masataka Yoshida left Boston with a budget crunch later in the offseason. While the sides remained in contact until Eovaldi signed in Texas, Boston’s later offers were characterized by what Cotillo describes as “creative structures” thanks to a desire to stay under the luxury tax. Ultimately, Cotillo adds, the Red Sox pivoted to righty Corey Kluber, who posted a 7.04 ERA in 15 appearances this year, after Eovaldi landed with the Rangers on a two-year, $34MM deal.
  • The Twins announced today (as relayed by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes) that outfielder and first baseman Alex Kirilloff avoided a potentially more invasive procedure on his right shoulder as Dr. Neal ElAttrache performed a cleanup procedure of the bursal sac in Kirilloff’s right shoulder today. The Twins had previously revealed that Kirilloff would require offseason shoulder surgery, though it was unclear how severe the procedure would be at the time of the announcement. Ultimately, today’s update appears to be positive news for Minnesota, as Kirilloff will reportedly focus on strengthening his shoulder and improving its range of motion “in the coming weeks” before progressing to his normal offseason routine. Kirilloff acted as the club’s primary first baseman when healthy this season, slashing a solid .270/.348/.445 in 319 trips to the plate across 88 games.

Mitch Garver’s Unusual Platform Season

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The upcoming free agent class has long looked like it would be much heavier on pitching than hitting, and that situation only became more extreme as players at or near the top of the class like Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, and Ian Happ signed extensions prior to the 2023 campaign. Headed into the season, it looked as if the only surefire impact position players available would be two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani and glove-first third baseman Matt Chapman, particularly when slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernandez struggled badly to open the year. One name that didn’t receive much attention prior to his platform season was Mitch Garver, the Rangers catcher who had appeared in just 37.8% of his teams’ games since the start of the 2020 season due to injuries.

Texas defied preseason expectations to lead the AL West throughout the entire first half, lost eight consecutive games in late August to fall into a three-way tie with the Mariners and Astros in the win column, then ultimately missed the AL West crown after posting a 90-72 record identical to that of Houston’s division champs. Despite all of that uncertainty, Garver has been a stabilizing presence when in the club’s lineup. The 32-year-old slashed an impressive .270/.370/.500 across 344 trips to the plate with the Rangers this season while posting his lowest strikeout rate (23.8%) since 2019 and a career-best mark for walk rate (12.8%).

To put those numbers into perspective, Garver’s 138 wRC+ this year is tied with Brandon Belt and Ryan Jeffers for the 15th-best mark in the majors among players with at least 300 plate appearances this season. This puts Garver ahead of the likes of Cody Bellinger, Mike Trout, and Luis Arraez, and just a few points players like Kyle Tucker and Bryce Harper. Making Garver’s offensive capabilities more enticing is his ability to play catcher. Among all catchers with at least 150 plate appearances in 2023, Garver ranks second in on-base percentage, third in slugging percentage, third in walk rate, and he is tied with Jeffers for second in wRC+ (behind only Tom Murphy’s 47-game season with the Mariners).

Given the weak offensive free agent class, Garver’s prowess with the bat, and his ability to play behind the plate, one might assume that the veteran is on his way to a top-of-the-market payday this offseason. However, Garver’s situation isn’t that simple. Beyond the fact that he’ll play the 2024 campaign at age-33, there’s also the concern of his lengthy injury history. Garver missed six weeks with a sprained knee earlier this season, and in recent years has also missed time due to forearm, groin, back, intercostal, and ankle issues. Between those injuries and his role as a catcher requiring more days off than most everyday players, Garver has played just 209 games the past three seasons despite being a clear everyday talent when healthy.

Upon his return from the injured list in June, the Rangers helped Garver stay on the field by utilizing him primarily as a designated hitter. Though he hit well in the role, he was limited to just 25 games behind the plate over the season’s final four months, which will surely raise questions for potential suitors regarding Garver’s ability to catch regularly going forward.

As a DH, Garver would still have value, though it would be significantly reduced. Belt and J.D. Martinez are two examples of defensively-limited sluggers in their mid-thirties who posted similar numbers to Garver in 2023, and both ended up signing one-year deals this past offseason. That’s not to say Garver will necessarily be limited to similarly short-term offers, though it’s hard to imagine a player of his age and injury history approaching the much more significant contract (five years, $87.5MM) commanded by Willson Contreras last year, despite Contreras being a fellow catcher with relatively comparable offensive numbers in recent years.

That seems particularly true given that Garver seems to best fit a team with another reliable catching option, so Garver could have a clear path to DH playing time and face less pressure to regularly suit up behind the plate. Of course, the Rangers have such an arrangement, with Jonah Heim as the club’s everyday catcher and plenty of DH starts available for Garver. The Cubs and Padres are among other teams who could theoretically provide Garver with occasional time behind the plate next year alongside regular backstops Yan Gomes and Luis Campusano while allowing him to DH the majority of the time, which would seem to be the best approach in order to maximize both Garver’s talents and time on the field.

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