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Mitch Garver

Twins Notes: Middle Infield, Jeffers, Romero

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The Twins are receiving trade interest both in their upper-level middle infield prospects and in controllable players on their big league roster, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. That’s not exactly earth-shattering news, given the manner in which teams covet affordable long-term pieces — particularly this offseason. Rosenthal still outlines a possibility of Minnesota moving someone like second baseman Luis Arraez in order to slide Jorge Polanco over to second base. Doing so could come as part of a trade package for a high-end shortstop (e.g. Trevor Story) or help in the rotation, with a free-agent shortstop then being brought in as a bridge to top prospect Royce Lewis.

We’ve written about the possibility of the Twins making middle-infield moves despite a clear hole here at MLBTR, and from my vantage point it doesn’t seem the Twins would even need to move Arraez to justify bringing in a shortstop upgrade if they wish. Polanco has never been a strong defensive shortstop, even prior to a pair of ankle surgeries, and would seem perfectly well suited to play the same super-utility role that was recently held by departing free agent Marwin Gonzalez. There are myriad avenues they could take, but a move at shortstop doesn’t seem outlandish for the Twins, even with Polanco in tow. He’s set to earn $4.33MM in 2021, $5MM in 2022 and $7.5MM in 2023 before the Twins have a pair of club options valued at $10.5MM and $12MM.

More out of Minneapolis/St. Paul…

  • The Twins announced earlier this week that catcher Ryan Jeffers underwent an offseason procedure to remove loose bodies from his right elbow. Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that the operation isn’t expected to delay Jeffers’ availability for the 2021 season, though, with manager Rocco Baldelli telling Miller and others that Jeffers is already nearly back up to speed. Jeffers, 23, jumped to the Majors to fill in for an injured Mitch Garver in 2020 and not only held his own but may have even cemented his spot on the 2021 roster. In 26 games, the 2018 second-rounder took 62 plate appearances and posted a .273/.355/.436 slash with three homers. Jeffers did skip Triple-A entirely due to the lack of a minor league season, though, so the Twins could conceivably add a veteran backup if the hope is to get him a bit more seasoning. Doing so would also afford Jeffers everyday reps rather than have him serve in a more limited role behind Garver.
  • Minnesota’s decision to release Fernando Romero yesterday (and Romero quickly signing with the Yokohama BayStars) was examined by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, who reports that Romero didn’t draw much trade attention from MLB teams.  The Twins simply weren’t certain whether Romero would be able to pitch in the United States after visa issues prevented him from entering the country in 2020, and as president of baseball ops Derek Falvey said, “it felt like given all the circumstances around this year and going forward, plus his desired pursuit of Japan, it kind of felt like the best combination.”

Twins Reinstate Mitch Garver

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The Twins announced that they’ve reinstated catcher Mitch Garver from the 10-day injured list and optioned utility player Willians Astudillo. La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune first reported on Garver’s return.

The Twins have gone without Garver since he went on the IL on Aug. 20 with a right intercostal strain. Before that, Garver only managed a .154/.262/.212 line with one home run in 61 plate appearances. That production represents a stunning drop-off for a player who seemingly broke through a season ago by slashing .273/.365/.630 with 31 homers and 3.9 fWAR in just 359 trips to the plate. Garver led all major leaguers with 350-plus PA then in isolated power (.357), but that number has plummeted to .058 this year.

At 31-21, the Twins are in position for a second straight playoff berth, but it doesn’t appear another AL Central title is in the cards, as they’re three games behind the White Sox. Regardless, if Garver’s able to round back into last year’s form upon his return, it would certainly increase the Twins’ World Series chances. Garver, rookie Ryan Jeffers and Alex Avila could comprise a strong trio at catcher.

Twins Place Mitch Garver, Byron Buxton On Injured List

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4:50pm: The Twins don’t seem overly concerned about Buxton, who’s dealing with soreness, manager Rocco Baldelli said (via Park). Baldelli added Buxton’s surgically repaired labrum is in good shape.

3:55pm: The Twins have placed catcher Mitch Garver (right intercostal strain) and center fielder Byron Buxton (left shoulder inflammation) on the 10-day injured list, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. In other moves, they selected catcher Ryan Jeffers and recalled both righty Zack Littell and outfielder LaMonte Wade Jr.

Already down third baseman Josh Donaldson for the past three weeks, the Twins are now missing a couple more regulars in Garver and Buxton. But Garver, who was quietly one of the majors’ elite offensive performers in 2019, has started slowly this year with a .154/.262/.212 line and just one home run in 61 plate appearances. Fortunately for Minnesota, backup Alex Avila, who has played frequently thanks to Garver’s struggles, has gotten on base at a 41.5 percent clip through 41 PA, though he hasn’t hit for average (.200) or power (one homer).

With Garver down, Jeffers will join Avila to make up the Twins’ top two catchers. Jeffers, 23, joined the Twins as a second-round pick in 2018 and has posted great numbers at all four minor league levels at which he has played (rookie ball, Single-A, High-A, Double-A). MLB.com ranks Jeffers as the club’s sixth-best prospect, crediting him for his all-around game and positing that he looks like the Twins’ “catcher of the future.”

Buxton’s injury looks rather troubling when you consider he underwent season-ending surgery on the same shoulder last September. There’s no word this time on whether he’ll require an absence of more than 10 days. Like Garver, Buxton has not begun well at the plate (.221/.225/.456 with five HRs in 71 attempts). The defensive standout has once fared splendidly in that area, though, and has played center in every Twins game over the past couple weeks. Max Kepler, Jake Cave and Wade took the reins there last season when Buxton went down. They’re candidates to do so again now.

The Twins’ Breakout Slugger

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Last July, a happier time when something called Major League Baseball was actually taking place, I wrote a piece singing the praises of Twins catcher Mitch Garver. At that point, Garver was amid a breakout season in which he served as a key member of the Twins’ high-powered offense, aka the Bomba Squad – a unit that piled up an all-time record 307 home runs. Garver contributed about 10 percent of those, totaling 31 and finishing as one of five Twins who hit 30 or more.

Garver wasn’t just a one-trick pony who offered just power last year, either, as he wound up with an outstanding .273/.365/.630 line over his 359 plate appearances. Because he was part of a behind-the-plate timeshare with Jason Castro, Garver made just 93 appearances on the season. That means he hit a homer every three games; he also wound up with a .357 isolated power mark that paced all players who amassed 300-plus trips to the plate (AL MVP Mike Trout and AL Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez were his closest competitors).

Speaking of Trout, he has a new teammate in Castro, who will be the Angels’ starting catcher in 2020 if a season ever gets underway. The Twins, meanwhile, are now poised to hand the reins to Garver, whom free-agent addition Alex Avila will back up. Judging by what he did last season, Garver has a chance to end up as the Twins’ most productive catcher since Joe Mauer’s heyday donning the tools of ignorance.

It wasn’t just a matter of Garver posting all-world bottom-line production with the bat last season. He also ranked among Statcast’s top hitters in one important category after another. To name some examples, Garver was in the 85th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, expected slugging percentage and expected weighted on-base average (.380, compared to a real wOBA of .405). He was also remarkably consistent, evidenced by a 155 wRC+ in the first half and a 154 mark in the second. Furthermore, the right-handed slugger managed numbers that were easily above average against lefties and righties alike (198 wRC+ versus LHPs, 130 off RHPs).

It’s not easy to find a red flag when it comes to Garver’s 2019 offensive outburst. Adding to his appeal, he performed pretty well behind the plate. Sure, Garver threw out a paltry 16 percent of would-be base stealers (league average was 11 points better), but he did finish a solid 28th in Baseball Prospectus’ Framing Runs Above Average metric and a slightly better 24th as a pitch framer.

All said, the Twins seem to have stumbled on a gem in Garver, who joined the organization as a ninth-round pick in 2013 and who appears to have developed into a formidable all-around contributor. The 29-year-old was quietly one of the reasons the Twins won 101 games and an American League Central title last season. If they’re going to enjoy similar success going forward, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Garver continue to have a big hand in it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Twins Looking Into Free Agent Third Basemen

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The Twins have “kicked the tires” on several free-agent third basemen, including Josh Donaldson and Todd Frazier, according to Darren Wolfson of Skor North. Speculatively, it would seem that Mike Moustakas could also belong to this group, though he wasn’t explicitly named as a target.

One member of the Twins who might not be pleased to hear this news? C.J. Cron. With Miguel Sano currently installed at the hot corner, there’s not an immediate fit there, so adding a pricey third baseman through free agency could force Sano to first base—at Cron’s expense. The 29-year-old is in his final year of arbitration eligibility, and with MLBTR projecting a $7.7MM salary for the 2020 season, he’s a candidate to be non-tendered at the December 2 deadline.

That’s not to say that Cron is not a valuable player. With a .780 OPS and 25 home runs in 125 games for the Twins, he was a nice addition last winter and $8MM is by no means unaffordable, but the front office will certainly consider whether there are other options that could match or exceed Cron’s production at a lower price. It’s the same discussion that surrounded the Rays’ decision to designate Cron for assignment after a 2018 season in which he slugged 30 home runs, rather than pay the approximate $5MM he would’ve earned in arbitration.

And with Sano expected to earn $5.9MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility and coming off a decidedly better offensive season, he may very well represent a more cost-effective replacement for Cron. After rising through the minor league ranks as a third baseman, many have projected a transition to first base in Sano’s future. And after parts of five seasons in the big leagues, it seems safe to say that Sano will never be an above-average defensive third baseman: he was credited with -5 Defensive Runs Saved in 2019, and the stat believes he has cost his team runs in every season since 2015.

The Twins have quietly amassed the financial flexibility to go after the winter’s big fish, so a player of Donaldson’s caliber shouldn’t be out of the question for Minnesota. That said, they likely won’t be players for the best option on the market, Anthony Rendon. Nonetheless, if Cron is indeed non-tendered, the club would find itself comfortably below 2019’s $120MM Opening Day payroll, so the Twins shouldn’t be financially precluded from bringing in Donaldson on the three-year, $75MM deal that MLBTR projected for him. Still, there’s an argument to be made that those resources ought to be allocated to the starting rotation, which is a glaring area of weakness after the loss of Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda to free agency.

As Wolfson mentions, the team has also considered giving catcher Mitch Garver increased reps at first base. After an offensive breakout in which he hit 31 home runs in just 311 at-bats, one would think his bat could play there. Wolfson is quick to note, however, that that doesn’t constitute a full-time position change for Garver—of course, such a move would only diminish his comparative offensive value, given the dearth of slugging catchers. The Twins still think of him first and foremost as a catcher (indeed, Garver made strides as a defensive catcher this year after a rocky start to his career), though decreasing his workload behind the plate would allow the team to get his bat in the lineup for more games throughout the season. He was part of a formidable timeshare with Jason Castro in 2019, and the Twins seem reluctant to pencil in a single catcher for 130+ games in 2020, so a similar arrangement (whether with Castro, who’s a free agent, or a newcomer) could be in order this year.

AL Notes: Glasnow, Twins, Frazier

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Rays righty Tyler Glasnow seemed to be embarking on an uber-breakout campaign this year before being sidelined with forearm issues. The 1.86 ERA, 10.24 K/9 and 2.31 FIP marks he submitted in his first eight 2019 starts became the talk of baseball for a time and positioned Glasnow as the possible usurper of the Cy Young throne held by teammate Blake Snell.

Since hitting the injured list, Glasnow has embarked on a lengthy rehab that could culminate in the coming week. MLB.com writer Juan Toribio passes on that Glasnow will pitch two innings for the clubs Durham affiliate on Monday, whereafter the org will decide on the location of his next appearance (link).

To truly help a 79-58 team trying to break through the postseason barricades, Glasnow will need to be in top form when he returns to the team–a return that is expected to be in a short relief capacity. Still, this latest stop in his rehab suggests that Tampa could soon be making one of the most impactful additions of the AL playoff race this month. With tonight’s win over Cleveland, the Rays entered into a tie with Oakland for the second Wild Card play-in spot.

Two more notes from AL contenders…

  • Somehow, the Twins hit six home runs tonight and still lost a 10-7 decision to the lowly Tigers. However, this would be called “burying the lead” in journalism: the real story is that the final home run of the night–a blast off the bat of Mitch Garver in the ninth inning–brought Minnesota’s home run total to 268 on the year, setting a new single-season team record. Though this record doesn’t have obvious trade or free agent implications, it’s still an impressive mark for a team that was largely debrided for organizational inactivity this offseason. Amazingly, the club has already received 20-plus homers from seven different players, with 38 home runs coming from the catching position alone (which is itself a record for an American League team). It’s hardly a surprise that such a powerful club holds an 83-52 record and +172 Run Differential, not to mention a 4.5 game lead in the AL Central. The home run record was previously held by last year’s Yankees team.
  • Tomorrow will likely see social media ablaze with news of Sept. 1 roster call-ups, but word of one particular promotion stood out from the transaction morass today. Yankees outfielder Clint Frazier is a player of considerable pedigree who has mostly logged solid offensive results at the major league level (103 wRC+ in 392 career at-bats). Nonetheless, his team saw fit to demote Frazier to Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre in June, sparking both trade rumors and reports that highlighted an organizational mandate to Frazier regarding his suspect defense. September hope will spring eternal for the 24-year-old outfielder, however, as it appears that the man known as “Red Thunder” will rejoin his big league bombers when rosters expand today.  Frazier, for one, is excited: “Honestly feels like the first time I got called up all over again,” Frazier told Conor Foley of The Times-Tribune in Scranton (link). While in Triple-A this year, the right-handed hitter produced a .244/.302/.431 batting line.

Mitch Garver’s Quietly Great Season

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The Twins entered play Friday with the majors’ most home runs, second-best wRC+ and third-most runs, all of which helps explain their 62-40 record and two-game lead in the American League Central. The likes of Nelson Cruz (who swatted three homers Thursday), Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler are among Twins position players who get the lion’s share of attention, but there’s a case that a little-known catcher has been their premier offensive contributor on a per-plate appearance basis this season. That backstop didn’t join the Twins as a high draft pick, nor was he an elite prospect coming through their system.

The Twins selected Mitch Garver out of the University of New Mexico in the ninth round of the 2013 draft. At his best, Garver rose to a 17th-place rating in Minnesota’s farm, according to Baseball America, which placed him there after the 2016 season. Back then, BA described Garver as a “steady offensive player” with questionable (albeit improving) defense.

Garver debuted in the majors in 2017, though he only collected 52 plate appearances, before turning into a regular option last year. He was a fine offensive performer then, slashing .268/.335/.414 (102 wRC+) with seven home runs in 335 trips to the plate, but Garver was simultaneously among the worst defensive backstops in baseball. One year later, though, Garver has quietly evolved into one of the sport’s top all-around catchers.

Sharing time with fellow 2019 standout Jason Castro, the 28-year-old Garver has batted a phenomenal .291/.378/.646 with a prodigious 19 homers in just 217 PA. Among hitters who have amassed 200 or more PA this season, Garver ranks fourth in wRC+ (162). Who’s ahead of him? The MVP-caliber group of Mike Trout, Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger. Meanwhile, Garver has totaled 2.6 fWAR, which ranks fourth at his position behind Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto and Christian Vazquez.

There are ways to somewhat pooh-pooh Garver’s superlative production at the dish. He’s not going to maintain a .354 ISO, for instance, and despite owning one of the majors’ highest fly ball rates (47.8 percent), Garver’s 29.2 percent HR-to-FB rate isn’t going to last. Moreover, Statcast indicates his .422 weighted on-base average is bound to fall. Other than that, however, negatives are few and far between when it comes to Garver’s offensive game.

The righty-swinging Garver has crushed same- and left-handed pitchers alike. His 10.6 percent walk rate is above average, and even though he has been a tremendous power hitter in 2019, Garver hasn’t struck out at an untenable rate. His 24.9 percent strikeout rate is below average, though it’s not awful, and his chase, swing, in-zone contact and swinging-strike percentages are all either a bit better than most players’ or vastly superior. Likewise, Garver’s exit velocity, hard-hit rate, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA are all near the top of the league, per Statcast, which credits him with a .365 xwOBA. Garver’s just below Alex Bregman in that category. Not bad, especially for a catcher. Garver’s excellence has largely stemmed from an ability to pulverize fastballs – FanGraphs ranks him among the game’s most effective hitters versus heaters, while Statcast indicates he has posted a .533 wOBA/.446 xwOBA against them.

Of course, one of the key elements to catching is playing defense, which had been a sore spot for Garver in the past. That hasn’t been the case this year. Not only has Garver thrown out  a solid 6 of 18 would-be base stealers, but he has enjoyed a turnaround in the all-important pitch-framing department. Just 15 catchers have outdone Garver in that regard, says StatCorner.

When it comes to underrated players who have significantly impacted the standings thus far, Garver no doubt ranks near the apex of the league. And with Castro set to hit free agency after the season, perhaps Garver is close to assuming the reins as the Twins’ full-time catcher. With four years left of control remaining after 2019, Garver will have plenty more time to continue putting his name on the map in Minnesota. So far, he’s doing a pretty good job.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Central Notes: Tigers Pitching, Harrison, Jay, Garver

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The Tigers are still rooting around for innings, but that doesn’t mean that a certain long-time MLB hurler is destined for Detroit. GM Al Avila directly rejected a report from the Dominican Republic that suggested the Tigers were close to reaching a deal with Bartolo Colon, as Evan Woodberry of MLive.com writes. Still, there’s an obvious need for organizational depth. As skipper Ron Gardenhire puts it: “We don’t have enough [pitchers] down there in the minor leagues that can really come up and do anything right now. They’re not ready for this.”

More from the American League Central:

  • Tigers infielder Josh Harrison is undergoing an MRI today after suffering an injury to his left hamstring, Gardenhire told reporters including Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). The 31-year-old has been off to an ugly start with the bat, slashing just .176/.219/.265 in 146 plate appearances, but he’s a respected veteran presence and there’s still hope he could get things going and turn into a summer trade piece. It’ll be interesting to see whether the Tigers bring back Jeimer Candelario if Harrison requires an IL stint. The 25-year-old has stung the ball at Triple-A since being optioned. Dawel Lugo, who has struggled since being installed at third base, could be bumped over to second.
  • It seems that a rehab assignment is the next step up for White Sox outfielder Jon Jay, as Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. Jay has taken quite some time to recover from an injury suffered this spring that, per Van Schouwen, “affected his hip, low back and groin.” The veteran outfielder is testing his body in extended Spring Training but seems to be on track to join an affiliate in short order.
  • As if they needed the boost, the Twins may not go long without catcher Mitch Garver. As Judd Zulgad of SKOR North tweets, Garver is slated for a quick rehab assignment and could return to the MLB roster by the weekend. It seemed the outlook could have been much worse when he suffered a high ankle sprain recently. Garver, 28, has been one of baseball’s most intriguing early performers, turning in a .329/.418/.747 batting line with nine home runs in 91 plate appearances to open the year.

Twins Activate Miguel Sano, Place Mitch Garver On IL

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The Twins announced today that third baseman Miguel Sano is heading back onto the MLB roster. He’ll take the place of backstop Mitch Garver, who has been placed on the 10-day injured list after suffering an ankle sprain last night.

Sano, who just celebrated his 26th birthday, has been working back from a heel injury that cost him much more time than had been anticipated. The AL Central-leading Twins also used the opportunity to allow the slugger plenty of time to see pitching in the minors.

It’ll be fascinating to see how Sano responds to MLB pitching. He entered spring camp with a new physique and showing plenty of promise after a rough 2018 campaign. He has posted a .316/.364/.579 slash in his 44 rehab plate appearances.

The Twins will hope that Sano can get back to the high-level offensive output that he showed earlier in his career. He batted .264/.352/.507 and launched 28 long balls in 483 plate appearances in 2017, so it hasn’t been that long since he was a productive bat.

Unfortunately, the move comes in conjunction with the loss of Garver, who was off to a breakout start to the year. His timeline isn’t yet known. Fortunately, the team can still rely upon Jason Castro and Willians Astudillo behind the dish during Garver’s absence.

Twins’ Mitch Garver Diagnosed With High Ankle Sprain

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Twins catcher Mitch Garver exited tonight’s game after a play at the plate and has been diagnosed with a high ankle sprain, the team told reporters (Twitter link via Dan Hayes of The Athletic). He’ll be further evaluated tomorrow.

Garver was injured on what ultimately proved to be a game-saving play in the eighth inning; Byron Buxton threw out Shohei Ohtani to end the frame in a 4-3 game, but Ohtani slid into Garver’s planted leg. Garver had to be helped off the field and was unable to place weight on his left leg (video link).

While Garver is hardly a household name, any notable injury for the 28-year-old would be a sizable loss for the Twins. He’s off to a blistering start to the 2019 season, hitting at a .329/.418/.747 clip with nine long balls — including a two-run shot that proved to be the difference tonight — through his first 91 plate appearances. Combined with infielder/catcher Willians Astudillo (.290/.303/.484) and a resurgent Jason Castro (.245/.362/.612), Garver has helped to comprise a highly productive trio of catching options for the first-place Twins.

The presence of both Castro and Astudillo on the roster suggests that the Twins wouldn’t need to call up a catcher in the perhaps likely event that Garver requires a stint on the injured list. Minnesota doesn’t have any other catchers on its 40-man roster anyhow, so it seems likely that they’d continue with the Astudillo/Castro pairing, perhaps with Astudillo working in a slightly more conventional role in a two-catcher setup.

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