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Mitch Garver

The Twins’ Breakout Slugger

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Last July, a happier time when something called Major League Baseball was actually taking place, I wrote a piece singing the praises of Twins catcher Mitch Garver. At that point, Garver was amid a breakout season in which he served as a key member of the Twins’ high-powered offense, aka the Bomba Squad – a unit that piled up an all-time record 307 home runs. Garver contributed about 10 percent of those, totaling 31 and finishing as one of five Twins who hit 30 or more.

Garver wasn’t just a one-trick pony who offered just power last year, either, as he wound up with an outstanding .273/.365/.630 line over his 359 plate appearances. Because he was part of a behind-the-plate timeshare with Jason Castro, Garver made just 93 appearances on the season. That means he hit a homer every three games; he also wound up with a .357 isolated power mark that paced all players who amassed 300-plus trips to the plate (AL MVP Mike Trout and AL Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez were his closest competitors).

Speaking of Trout, he has a new teammate in Castro, who will be the Angels’ starting catcher in 2020 if a season ever gets underway. The Twins, meanwhile, are now poised to hand the reins to Garver, whom free-agent addition Alex Avila will back up. Judging by what he did last season, Garver has a chance to end up as the Twins’ most productive catcher since Joe Mauer’s heyday donning the tools of ignorance.

It wasn’t just a matter of Garver posting all-world bottom-line production with the bat last season. He also ranked among Statcast’s top hitters in one important category after another. To name some examples, Garver was in the 85th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, expected slugging percentage and expected weighted on-base average (.380, compared to a real wOBA of .405). He was also remarkably consistent, evidenced by a 155 wRC+ in the first half and a 154 mark in the second. Furthermore, the right-handed slugger managed numbers that were easily above average against lefties and righties alike (198 wRC+ versus LHPs, 130 off RHPs).

It’s not easy to find a red flag when it comes to Garver’s 2019 offensive outburst. Adding to his appeal, he performed pretty well behind the plate. Sure, Garver threw out a paltry 16 percent of would-be base stealers (league average was 11 points better), but he did finish a solid 28th in Baseball Prospectus’ Framing Runs Above Average metric and a slightly better 24th as a pitch framer.

All said, the Twins seem to have stumbled on a gem in Garver, who joined the organization as a ninth-round pick in 2013 and who appears to have developed into a formidable all-around contributor. The 29-year-old was quietly one of the reasons the Twins won 101 games and an American League Central title last season. If they’re going to enjoy similar success going forward, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Garver continue to have a big hand in it.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Twins Looking Into Free Agent Third Basemen

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The Twins have “kicked the tires” on several free-agent third basemen, including Josh Donaldson and Todd Frazier, according to Darren Wolfson of Skor North. Speculatively, it would seem that Mike Moustakas could also belong to this group, though he wasn’t explicitly named as a target.

One member of the Twins who might not be pleased to hear this news? C.J. Cron. With Miguel Sano currently installed at the hot corner, there’s not an immediate fit there, so adding a pricey third baseman through free agency could force Sano to first base—at Cron’s expense. The 29-year-old is in his final year of arbitration eligibility, and with MLBTR projecting a $7.7MM salary for the 2020 season, he’s a candidate to be non-tendered at the December 2 deadline.

That’s not to say that Cron is not a valuable player. With a .780 OPS and 25 home runs in 125 games for the Twins, he was a nice addition last winter and $8MM is by no means unaffordable, but the front office will certainly consider whether there are other options that could match or exceed Cron’s production at a lower price. It’s the same discussion that surrounded the Rays’ decision to designate Cron for assignment after a 2018 season in which he slugged 30 home runs, rather than pay the approximate $5MM he would’ve earned in arbitration.

And with Sano expected to earn $5.9MM in his second year of arbitration eligibility and coming off a decidedly better offensive season, he may very well represent a more cost-effective replacement for Cron. After rising through the minor league ranks as a third baseman, many have projected a transition to first base in Sano’s future. And after parts of five seasons in the big leagues, it seems safe to say that Sano will never be an above-average defensive third baseman: he was credited with -5 Defensive Runs Saved in 2019, and the stat believes he has cost his team runs in every season since 2015.

The Twins have quietly amassed the financial flexibility to go after the winter’s big fish, so a player of Donaldson’s caliber shouldn’t be out of the question for Minnesota. That said, they likely won’t be players for the best option on the market, Anthony Rendon. Nonetheless, if Cron is indeed non-tendered, the club would find itself comfortably below 2019’s $120MM Opening Day payroll, so the Twins shouldn’t be financially precluded from bringing in Donaldson on the three-year, $75MM deal that MLBTR projected for him. Still, there’s an argument to be made that those resources ought to be allocated to the starting rotation, which is a glaring area of weakness after the loss of Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda to free agency.

As Wolfson mentions, the team has also considered giving catcher Mitch Garver increased reps at first base. After an offensive breakout in which he hit 31 home runs in just 311 at-bats, one would think his bat could play there. Wolfson is quick to note, however, that that doesn’t constitute a full-time position change for Garver—of course, such a move would only diminish his comparative offensive value, given the dearth of slugging catchers. The Twins still think of him first and foremost as a catcher (indeed, Garver made strides as a defensive catcher this year after a rocky start to his career), though decreasing his workload behind the plate would allow the team to get his bat in the lineup for more games throughout the season. He was part of a formidable timeshare with Jason Castro in 2019, and the Twins seem reluctant to pencil in a single catcher for 130+ games in 2020, so a similar arrangement (whether with Castro, who’s a free agent, or a newcomer) could be in order this year.

AL Notes: Glasnow, Twins, Frazier

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Rays righty Tyler Glasnow seemed to be embarking on an uber-breakout campaign this year before being sidelined with forearm issues. The 1.86 ERA, 10.24 K/9 and 2.31 FIP marks he submitted in his first eight 2019 starts became the talk of baseball for a time and positioned Glasnow as the possible usurper of the Cy Young throne held by teammate Blake Snell.

Since hitting the injured list, Glasnow has embarked on a lengthy rehab that could culminate in the coming week. MLB.com writer Juan Toribio passes on that Glasnow will pitch two innings for the clubs Durham affiliate on Monday, whereafter the org will decide on the location of his next appearance (link).

To truly help a 79-58 team trying to break through the postseason barricades, Glasnow will need to be in top form when he returns to the team–a return that is expected to be in a short relief capacity. Still, this latest stop in his rehab suggests that Tampa could soon be making one of the most impactful additions of the AL playoff race this month. With tonight’s win over Cleveland, the Rays entered into a tie with Oakland for the second Wild Card play-in spot.

Two more notes from AL contenders…

  • Somehow, the Twins hit six home runs tonight and still lost a 10-7 decision to the lowly Tigers. However, this would be called “burying the lead” in journalism: the real story is that the final home run of the night–a blast off the bat of Mitch Garver in the ninth inning–brought Minnesota’s home run total to 268 on the year, setting a new single-season team record. Though this record doesn’t have obvious trade or free agent implications, it’s still an impressive mark for a team that was largely debrided for organizational inactivity this offseason. Amazingly, the club has already received 20-plus homers from seven different players, with 38 home runs coming from the catching position alone (which is itself a record for an American League team). It’s hardly a surprise that such a powerful club holds an 83-52 record and +172 Run Differential, not to mention a 4.5 game lead in the AL Central. The home run record was previously held by last year’s Yankees team.
  • Tomorrow will likely see social media ablaze with news of Sept. 1 roster call-ups, but word of one particular promotion stood out from the transaction morass today. Yankees outfielder Clint Frazier is a player of considerable pedigree who has mostly logged solid offensive results at the major league level (103 wRC+ in 392 career at-bats). Nonetheless, his team saw fit to demote Frazier to Triple-A Scranton Wilkes-Barre in June, sparking both trade rumors and reports that highlighted an organizational mandate to Frazier regarding his suspect defense. September hope will spring eternal for the 24-year-old outfielder, however, as it appears that the man known as “Red Thunder” will rejoin his big league bombers when rosters expand today.  Frazier, for one, is excited: “Honestly feels like the first time I got called up all over again,” Frazier told Conor Foley of The Times-Tribune in Scranton (link). While in Triple-A this year, the right-handed hitter produced a .244/.302/.431 batting line.

Mitch Garver’s Quietly Great Season

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The Twins entered play Friday with the majors’ most home runs, second-best wRC+ and third-most runs, all of which helps explain their 62-40 record and two-game lead in the American League Central. The likes of Nelson Cruz (who swatted three homers Thursday), Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler are among Twins position players who get the lion’s share of attention, but there’s a case that a little-known catcher has been their premier offensive contributor on a per-plate appearance basis this season. That backstop didn’t join the Twins as a high draft pick, nor was he an elite prospect coming through their system.

The Twins selected Mitch Garver out of the University of New Mexico in the ninth round of the 2013 draft. At his best, Garver rose to a 17th-place rating in Minnesota’s farm, according to Baseball America, which placed him there after the 2016 season. Back then, BA described Garver as a “steady offensive player” with questionable (albeit improving) defense.

Garver debuted in the majors in 2017, though he only collected 52 plate appearances, before turning into a regular option last year. He was a fine offensive performer then, slashing .268/.335/.414 (102 wRC+) with seven home runs in 335 trips to the plate, but Garver was simultaneously among the worst defensive backstops in baseball. One year later, though, Garver has quietly evolved into one of the sport’s top all-around catchers.

Sharing time with fellow 2019 standout Jason Castro, the 28-year-old Garver has batted a phenomenal .291/.378/.646 with a prodigious 19 homers in just 217 PA. Among hitters who have amassed 200 or more PA this season, Garver ranks fourth in wRC+ (162). Who’s ahead of him? The MVP-caliber group of Mike Trout, Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger. Meanwhile, Garver has totaled 2.6 fWAR, which ranks fourth at his position behind Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto and Christian Vazquez.

There are ways to somewhat pooh-pooh Garver’s superlative production at the dish. He’s not going to maintain a .354 ISO, for instance, and despite owning one of the majors’ highest fly ball rates (47.8 percent), Garver’s 29.2 percent HR-to-FB rate isn’t going to last. Moreover, Statcast indicates his .422 weighted on-base average is bound to fall. Other than that, however, negatives are few and far between when it comes to Garver’s offensive game.

The righty-swinging Garver has crushed same- and left-handed pitchers alike. His 10.6 percent walk rate is above average, and even though he has been a tremendous power hitter in 2019, Garver hasn’t struck out at an untenable rate. His 24.9 percent strikeout rate is below average, though it’s not awful, and his chase, swing, in-zone contact and swinging-strike percentages are all either a bit better than most players’ or vastly superior. Likewise, Garver’s exit velocity, hard-hit rate, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA are all near the top of the league, per Statcast, which credits him with a .365 xwOBA. Garver’s just below Alex Bregman in that category. Not bad, especially for a catcher. Garver’s excellence has largely stemmed from an ability to pulverize fastballs – FanGraphs ranks him among the game’s most effective hitters versus heaters, while Statcast indicates he has posted a .533 wOBA/.446 xwOBA against them.

Of course, one of the key elements to catching is playing defense, which had been a sore spot for Garver in the past. That hasn’t been the case this year. Not only has Garver thrown out  a solid 6 of 18 would-be base stealers, but he has enjoyed a turnaround in the all-important pitch-framing department. Just 15 catchers have outdone Garver in that regard, says StatCorner.

When it comes to underrated players who have significantly impacted the standings thus far, Garver no doubt ranks near the apex of the league. And with Castro set to hit free agency after the season, perhaps Garver is close to assuming the reins as the Twins’ full-time catcher. With four years left of control remaining after 2019, Garver will have plenty more time to continue putting his name on the map in Minnesota. So far, he’s doing a pretty good job.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL Central Notes: Tigers Pitching, Harrison, Jay, Garver

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The Tigers are still rooting around for innings, but that doesn’t mean that a certain long-time MLB hurler is destined for Detroit. GM Al Avila directly rejected a report from the Dominican Republic that suggested the Tigers were close to reaching a deal with Bartolo Colon, as Evan Woodberry of MLive.com writes. Still, there’s an obvious need for organizational depth. As skipper Ron Gardenhire puts it: “We don’t have enough [pitchers] down there in the minor leagues that can really come up and do anything right now. They’re not ready for this.”

More from the American League Central:

  • Tigers infielder Josh Harrison is undergoing an MRI today after suffering an injury to his left hamstring, Gardenhire told reporters including Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). The 31-year-old has been off to an ugly start with the bat, slashing just .176/.219/.265 in 146 plate appearances, but he’s a respected veteran presence and there’s still hope he could get things going and turn into a summer trade piece. It’ll be interesting to see whether the Tigers bring back Jeimer Candelario if Harrison requires an IL stint. The 25-year-old has stung the ball at Triple-A since being optioned. Dawel Lugo, who has struggled since being installed at third base, could be bumped over to second.
  • It seems that a rehab assignment is the next step up for White Sox outfielder Jon Jay, as Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. Jay has taken quite some time to recover from an injury suffered this spring that, per Van Schouwen, “affected his hip, low back and groin.” The veteran outfielder is testing his body in extended Spring Training but seems to be on track to join an affiliate in short order.
  • As if they needed the boost, the Twins may not go long without catcher Mitch Garver. As Judd Zulgad of SKOR North tweets, Garver is slated for a quick rehab assignment and could return to the MLB roster by the weekend. It seemed the outlook could have been much worse when he suffered a high ankle sprain recently. Garver, 28, has been one of baseball’s most intriguing early performers, turning in a .329/.418/.747 batting line with nine home runs in 91 plate appearances to open the year.

Twins Activate Miguel Sano, Place Mitch Garver On IL

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The Twins announced today that third baseman Miguel Sano is heading back onto the MLB roster. He’ll take the place of backstop Mitch Garver, who has been placed on the 10-day injured list after suffering an ankle sprain last night.

Sano, who just celebrated his 26th birthday, has been working back from a heel injury that cost him much more time than had been anticipated. The AL Central-leading Twins also used the opportunity to allow the slugger plenty of time to see pitching in the minors.

It’ll be fascinating to see how Sano responds to MLB pitching. He entered spring camp with a new physique and showing plenty of promise after a rough 2018 campaign. He has posted a .316/.364/.579 slash in his 44 rehab plate appearances.

The Twins will hope that Sano can get back to the high-level offensive output that he showed earlier in his career. He batted .264/.352/.507 and launched 28 long balls in 483 plate appearances in 2017, so it hasn’t been that long since he was a productive bat.

Unfortunately, the move comes in conjunction with the loss of Garver, who was off to a breakout start to the year. His timeline isn’t yet known. Fortunately, the team can still rely upon Jason Castro and Willians Astudillo behind the dish during Garver’s absence.

Twins’ Mitch Garver Diagnosed With High Ankle Sprain

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Twins catcher Mitch Garver exited tonight’s game after a play at the plate and has been diagnosed with a high ankle sprain, the team told reporters (Twitter link via Dan Hayes of The Athletic). He’ll be further evaluated tomorrow.

Garver was injured on what ultimately proved to be a game-saving play in the eighth inning; Byron Buxton threw out Shohei Ohtani to end the frame in a 4-3 game, but Ohtani slid into Garver’s planted leg. Garver had to be helped off the field and was unable to place weight on his left leg (video link).

While Garver is hardly a household name, any notable injury for the 28-year-old would be a sizable loss for the Twins. He’s off to a blistering start to the 2019 season, hitting at a .329/.418/.747 clip with nine long balls — including a two-run shot that proved to be the difference tonight — through his first 91 plate appearances. Combined with infielder/catcher Willians Astudillo (.290/.303/.484) and a resurgent Jason Castro (.245/.362/.612), Garver has helped to comprise a highly productive trio of catching options for the first-place Twins.

The presence of both Castro and Astudillo on the roster suggests that the Twins wouldn’t need to call up a catcher in the perhaps likely event that Garver requires a stint on the injured list. Minnesota doesn’t have any other catchers on its 40-man roster anyhow, so it seems likely that they’d continue with the Astudillo/Castro pairing, perhaps with Astudillo working in a slightly more conventional role in a two-catcher setup.

Twins Select Juan Graterol

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Per a team press release, the Twins have selected the contract of catcher Juan Graterol from Triple-A Rochester. He’ll head to Oakland tonight to join the MLB team. Ervin Santana has been transferred to the 60-day DL in order to make room for him on the roster.

Minnesota signed the 29-year-old Graterol to a minors pact in late June after he was designated for assignment and subsequently released by the Angels. His lone MLB plate appearance on the season resulted in a single, but he’d also spent parts of 2016 an 2017 in Los Angeles and racked up just over 100 trips to the plate during that time. The backstop owns a lifetime .222/.225/.283 batting line at the MLB level, though he’s perhaps better known for sound defense behind the plate.

Since joining the Rochester Red Wings, Graterol has posted a .284/.317/.336 batting line across 123 MiLB plate appearances. That comes with a sustainable .289 BABIP, so there’s at least some optimism surrounding his potential to make good contact in the majors. But the more fascinating element of Graterol’s game is his plate discipline profile. He’s got just a 2.4% strikeout rate with the Red Wings, along with a 1.6% walk rate. Put more simply, Graterol swings often, and he doesn’t miss very much. He’ll sit behind Willians Astudillo and Chris Gimenez on the Twins’ depth chart.

Latest On Twins’ Plans At Catcher

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Twins assistant GM Rob Antony joined 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson on his latest podcast episode, discussing a wide range of topics from Jason Castro’s season-ending injury, to some pending free agents, some health updates on injured players and prospects to watch at the team’s Class-A club (audio link, with Antony joining for about 20 minutes beginning at 24:30). Most notably, Antony and Wolfson discuss not only the specifics of Castro’s injury, but the organization’s potential need to pursue outside help at catcher.

Regarding the injury to Castro, Antony explains that initial imaging on the catcher’s knee revealed some tearing in the meniscus, but both Twins doctors and independent doctors who were consulted agreed that Castro would be able to return this season with a minor cleanup. (His initial prognosis upon being scheduled for surgery was around six weeks.) Upon performing the surgery, however, the tearing was found to be extensive enough that without a full repair of the meniscus, Castro’s career as a catcher would’ve been in jeopardy.

It doesn’t sound as if one singular incident this season led to the issue for Castro, who has had meniscus and ACL injuries in the past. In fact, Antony notes that Castro had no issues running straight or even catching, but the knee bothered him greatly when rotating through his swing at the plate and rounding the bases. Certainly, Castro’s .143/.257/.238 slash — down from .242/.333/.388 a year prior — exemplifies the difficulties he had on offense.

Initial reports have suggested that Minnesota won’t rush out to make a significant addition behind the plate. La Velle E. Neal of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reported the other night that while the team is discussing its options, no decisions have been made (Twitter links). Neal suggested that if anything, the club could add a veteran depth piece to stash in Triple-A in order to give them further options beyond rookie Mitch Garver, now the team’s No. 1 catcher, and veteran backup Bobby Wilson.

Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press expressed similar views in profiling how Garver, long rated as one of the organization’s more promising prospects, is in line to receive a legitimate opportunity to show he can handle the primary job. Garver hit .291/.387/.541 with 17 homers in Triple-A last season and is off to a .254/.309/.413 start in 68 plate appearances with the Twins in 2018. Antony did nothing to suggest that Garver won’t be given a real chance, but he did indicate that the team is actively exploring the market for help.

“I would say it’s probably safe to say we’re going to have to acquire somebody, whether it’s for insurance or to be on the big league squad as a [number] one or two [option],” Antony said. “…I don’t think we’re going to sell the farm to acquire a catcher that’s not going to be an impact guy and is kind of a ’tide you over until Castro is ready next year,’ but we will look to see if we can improve our situation and our depth, definitely.”

Per Antony, the club is more confident in Garver’s bat than that of Wilson, but the Twins also believe Wilson to be a more polished defender than Garver. So while Garver seems in line to shoulder most of the load, it’s possible that Wilson sees slightly more playing time than a true backup, though surely their on-field performances will ultimately dictate the timeshare.

In the meantime, the Twins have received calls from other clubs with catchers to offer, per Antony, but conversations with those teams “have not progressed to the point where we’re deep in talks with anybody right now.”

Certainly, there are teams around the league with catching options to offer. Marlins star J.T. Realmuto was among the most oft-discussed trade candidates of the past offseason and figures to be a staple on the rumor circuit again this summer, though he’ll have an enormous price tag attached to him with two and a half years of club control remaining. Seldom-used Red Sox catcher/outfielder/first baseman Blake Swihart will also be on the rumor circuit until what feels like an inevitable trade is completed following this week’s trade request from his agent. The Rays, meanwhile, probably wouldn’t mind shedding the salary of hot-hitting Wilson Ramos while simultaneously adding a piece or two of intrigue to their minor league ranks.

As far as depth options who are unsigned at present, Miguel Montero (released by the Nationals last month), Carlos Ruiz (reportedly playing in his native Panama) and Geovany Soto are among the most notable available names.

Jason Castro Out Four To Six Weeks Following Knee Surgery

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Twins catcher Jason Castro, already on the disabled list due to a tear in his right meniscus, will undergo surgery and miss another four to six weeks of action, manager Paul Molitor tells reporters (Twitter links via Brandon Warne of ZoneCoverage.com). He’ll undergo surgery tomorrow to have part of his meniscus removed.

The 30-year-old Castro hasn’t looked right at the plate this season, hitting just .143/.257/.238 leading up to last week’s placement on the disabled list. While he was hardly an offensive force for Minnesota last season, he still slashed .242/.333/.388 with 10 homers — production that was slightly above-average relative to other catchers throughout the league and a bit below the overall league average for big league hitters (by measure of wRC+). He’s earning $8MM in 2018 — the second season of a three-year, $24.5MM deal that’ll pay him $8MM once again in 2019.

With Castro on the shelf for the foreseeable future, rookie Mitch Garver should continue on as the Twins’ primary receiver behind the dish. Minnesota selected the contract of veteran Bobby Wilson last week at the time of Castro’s initial injury, but he’s likely to remain in a backup role. Garver, 27, ranked among the Twins’ top 20 prospects in 2017 before debuting late in the year. He’s hitting .250/.311/.411 with a pair of homers through 61 plate appearances so far in 2018.

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