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Offseason In Review: San Diego Padres

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It’s rare for the same team to be on opposite ends of blockbuster trades within one offseason. This Padres front office isn’t afraid to break convention. San Diego was the traditional “seller” in the winter’s biggest trade as they shed a lot of money. That didn’t stop them from dealing a trio of well-regarded prospects to upgrade their rotation in a late-spring strike.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $9.35MM
Total spending: $50MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Under A.J. Preller, it’s fair to presume the Padres are in for a headline-grabbing offseason. Yet while the past few years had been defined by major acquisitions, most of this winter was about departures. Late in the 2023 season, it emerged that the Padres were planning to cut spending. That came on the heels of Diamond Sports Group abandoning their local broadcasting contract midseason and amidst reports about the Padres falling out of compliance with MLB’s debt service ratio.

San Diego had key free agents Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and Seth Lugo; option decisions on Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha which they’d decline; and Juan Soto projected for the largest arbitration salary in league history. (Hader and Snell declined qualifying offers, so the Padres landed two draft choices after the fourth round for their departures.) It was clear there’d be a lot of roster turnover. Before they could even address that, the organization needed to settle on its leadership structure. Tension mounted between Preller and manager Bob Melvin towards the end of their underwhelming season. While they made some effort to smooth the relationship going into the winter, everyone decided a break was ultimately in the organization’s best interest.

The Padres allowed Melvin to interview for and accept the managerial role with the Giants without demanding any compensation from their division rivals. They reportedly considered former Angels skipper Phil Nevin and previous Cubs manager David Ross but ultimately stayed in-house. San Diego moved Mike Shildt from an advisory position in the front office back to the dugout, giving him his second managerial opportunity at the big league level. Bench coach Ryan Flaherty also interviewed for the position. When San Diego went with Shildt instead, they let Flaherty depart to serve as Craig Counsell’s top lieutenant with the Cubs. The Padres left the position vacant for 2024.

Of course, one would be remiss to discuss the Padres’ leadership structure without mentioning Peter Seidler. The San Diego owner passed away at age 63 in the middle of November after a battle with illness. Few owners were as widely respected around the league and by their fanbase as Seidler, who consistently approved star acquisitions and ran the organization’s player payroll as high as third in the majors entering last season. This was a franchise that ranked among the league’s bottom-five spenders throughout most of the 2010s. It didn’t always work, but there was little questioning Seidler’s commitment to giving the team a chance to win. Eric Kutsenda took over as the organization’s control person.

It surely wasn’t easy for the front office to step right back into daily operations after Seidler’s death, but the calendar unfortunately didn’t afford them much time. That week, they were faced with a handful of key arbitration decisions. The Padres made the easy call to non-tender Austin Nola after a disappointing tenure in San Diego. Whether they might’ve done the same with reliever Scott Barlow won’t be known, as the Friars found a taker for the righty just before the non-tender deadline.

San Diego flipped Barlow to the Guardians for Enyel De Los Santos. It was a one-for-one bullpen swap that saved the Friars around $6MM. De Los Santos doesn’t have the kind of swing-and-miss potential that Barlow offers and is probably better suited for middle relief, but he was a capable reliever for Cleveland over the past two seasons. Given their payroll restrictions, adding a more affordable reliever whom they control for three years was a tidy bit of business for San Diego.

Once the non-tender deadline passed, much of the league’s attention turned to two players: Shohei Ohtani and Soto. (The Padres were never serious threats for the former.) The chance for a second Soto blockbuster in less than 18 months was one of the offseason’s biggest storylines. It quickly became clear that the Yankees were the favorites. The sides pulled off the massive deal at the Winter Meetings.

San Diego packaged Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham to the Bronx for a pitching-heavy return. They added Michael King, who excelled in a limited stint out of the New York rotation late last season. He stepped into the staff behind Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. Righties Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez have big league experience and could battle for spots at the back end of the rotation. At the time, it seemed that pitching prospect Drew Thorpe might soon join them at Petco Park. The Friars also landed Kyle Higashioka as a backup to young catcher Luis Campusano, allowing them to let Gary Sánchez depart in free agency.

Any Soto trade was unquestionably going to make the Padres worse. With so many gaps to plug on the roster, they weren’t prepared to carry him on an arbitration salary that eventually landed at $31MM. The volume approach allowed them to backfill some of the rotation depth they lost in free agency, but it subtracted two-thirds of their starting outfield. The Padres were never going to be able to replace Soto with a player of comparable quality. Yet they also opted against the traditional rebuilding return, pursuing a quantity-driven package of major league ready talent whom they control cheaply for multiple years.

Prioritizing pitching meant leaving massive questions in the outfield. The Padres never really answered them. They were linked to star KBO  center fielder Jung Hoo Lee, but it quickly became clear his asking price was going to be well beyond their comfort level. He eventually ended up with the Giants on a $113MM pact. San Diego also showed reported interest in Adam Duvall and Michael A. Taylor but, thus far, their only major league outfield transaction was to bring back Jurickson Profar on a $1MM deal.

Profar will likely be the Opening Day starter in left field. Tommy Pham remains unsigned and has been linked to a San Diego reunion throughout the winter. His camp and the Padres are reportedly discussing a deal in the $3-4MM range. If Pham signs, he’d bump Profar down a peg on the depth chart. That obviously won’t happen before tomorrow’s regular season opener in South Korea, though.

Whoever is in left field will share time with Fernando Tatis Jr. and 20-year-old Jackson Merrill. San Diego is calling the latter directly from Double-A on the heels of a monster Spring Training. He’ll be the team’s starting center fielder despite never playing there in a minor league game. It’s a risky move borne partially out of necessity after the Padres missed on their other center field targets. At the same time, it’s not an uncharacteristic roll of the dice for an organization that hasn’t shied away from aggressively promoting its top prospects. José Azocar is likely to occupy the fourth outfield role, although minor league signee Tyler Wade could also see some time on the grass.

While San Diego’s pursuit of Lee didn’t get far, the Padres remained one of the league’s more active teams in Asia. After successfully pursuing players like Ha-Seong Kim, Robert Suarez and Martinez in previous offseasons, San Diego made another pair of acquisitions from the Asian pro leagues. They added one player apiece from Nippon Professional Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization to their bullpen.

Left-hander Yuki Matsui was the bigger signing, as he landed a surprising five-year, $28MM guarantee that allows him to opt out after years three and four. Matsui is coming off three straight sub-2.00 ERA showings with plus strikeout rates in Japan. Evaluators are split on whether his stuff translates to a late-inning role in MLB, but the Padres clearly expect him to find success. While Matsui was a little behind in camp with back tightness, he should be on the Opening Day roster and could compete with Suarez for the closer role.

Woo Suk Go signed a two-year, $4.5MM pact after a seven-year run in the KBO. He’s young and throws hard, but the modest price tag reflects a general agreement that he projects more as a middle reliever than a high-leverage arm. Go was a closer in the KBO but had inconsistent command.

The bullpen overhaul didn’t stop there. The Padres added ground-ball specialist Wandy Peralta to the middle innings. They signed the former Yankee to a four-year, $16.5MM contract that allows him to opt out after each season. The contract length and overall guarantee were above expectations, but that’s a tradeoff San Diego made to keep his annual salaries low. Peralta has been particularly effective against same-handed hitters over the past couple years, providing a matchup option for Shildt in the middle to late innings.

San Diego also made a trio of waiver claims. They snagged Jeremiah Estrada from the Cubs, brought back former top prospect Luis Patiño from the White Sox, and grabbed righty Logan Gillaspie from the Red Sox. The Padres selected Stephen Kolek out of the Mariners system in the Rule 5 draft. They might not be able to keep everyone from that group. Patiño is out of minor league options and seems likely to be designated for assignment, as he wasn’t included on San Diego’s travel group to Seoul. Kolek can’t be sent down because of his Rule 5 status. Pedro Avila is out of options himself.

Even if the Padres move on from Patiño, they could have five or six new faces in the relief corps. Matsui, Go, De Los Santos, Peralta and Estrada all seem ticketed for key roles. In addition to the free agent departures of Hader, Martinez and Luis García, the Padres subtracted a couple relievers in trade. They flipped Ray Kerr to the Braves to get Atlanta to take on $4MM of Matt Carpenter’s underwater deal. Steven Wilson seemed ticketed for a middle relief spot as recently as last week, but he was an ancillary part of a late-offseason stunner.

Trade talk surrounding Dylan Cease had quieted going into Spring Training. That changed last week, as Chicago reengaged with teams like the Rangers and Yankees in an effort to move the righty before Opening Day. The Padres were initially viewed as more of a peripheral team in the Cease market, but Preller and his staff pushed back in for another star player.

Thorpe’s stay in the organization lasted all of a few months. The key prospect received in the Soto trade wound up headlining a Cease package that also included upper minors righty Jairo Iriarte, Low-A outfield prospect Samuel Zavala, and Wilson. Cease steps into the upper half of the rotation and adds a third established arm alongside Darvish and Musgrove. King slides into the fourth spot, leaving one season-opening role available for Brito, Vásquez, Avila or Matt Waldron.

San Diego dealt a trio of quality but not top-tier prospects and a decent reliever with four years of club control. Cease is making an $8MM salary that fit within their reduced budget. He’s eligible for arbitration once more. Even if he doesn’t recapture the form that made him Cy Young runner-up in 2022, Cease has been exceptionally durable over the past few seasons. He owns a 3.58 ERA going back to the start of 2020 and has a power arsenal that misses bats at an above-average rate. Cease should be a fixture in the San Diego rotation for the next two years, although it’d be foolish to count out San Diego pivoting and putting him back on the market this summer or next offseason if the team doesn’t perform up to expectations.

The one area of the roster that was not dramatically overhauled, at least in terms of personnel, was the infield. The Padres floated Jake Cronenworth in talks but didn’t find a trade partner. That’s no surprise, as he’s coming off a down season and entering the first year of the seven-year extension that he signed last spring. Kim was a much more in-demand trade target heading into the final season of his four-year deal.

The Padres decided not to move him, at least not to another team. San Diego is pushing Kim back up the defensive spectrum to shortstop, however. Xander Bogaerts is flipping to the other side of the bag, as he’ll become a second baseman for the first time in his career. It was always expected that Bogaerts would move off shortstop fairly early into his 11-year free agent deal, although few would’ve predicted that to happen after only one season. Manny Machado will eventually slot back in at third base. He’s likely to be limited to DH duty for the first couple weeks as he continues working back from last fall’s elbow surgery.

San Diego has Eguy Rosario and Matthew Batten as short-term options to cover third base, but they may turn to yet another prospect. Former 13th-round pick Graham Pauley has dramatically elevated his stock in pro ball. He’s coming off a .308/.393/.539 batting line between High-A and Double-A. The Duke product continued to rake this spring, turning in a .314/.400/.486 slash over 16 games. The Padres included Pauley in their travel group to Seoul, suggesting they’re considering jumping him directly from Double-A, just as they plan to do with Merrill.

The “offseason” work might not be 100% complete as they try to push a Pham deal across the finish line, but the Padres are a few hours from kicking off the regular season. They’ll do so with a team that looks a lot different than the one that finished 2023. Most outside expectations aren’t as high as they were at this time last year, but the late push for Cease shows that the organization still expects to compete for a playoff spot. Plenty of top-end talent remains. The question is whether the roster is deep enough to hold up over a 162-game stretch.

Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners’ front office operated under tight payroll restrictions from ownership in light of uncertainty regarding the team’s television contract this offseason. That didn’t stop “Trader Jerry” Dipoto, the team’s president of baseball operations, from aggressively overhauling the roster with a series of trades colored by monetary implications. (This year’s Mariners Review might include the lengthiest “trades and waiver claims” section I’ve ever written in a decade of doing these reviews.)

Major League Signings

2024 spend: $17.3MM
Total spend: $29.3MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Waiver Claims

Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

It became clear fairly early in the offseason that despite the Mariners’ recent success, including the end of their two-decade playoff drought in 2022, payroll wouldn’t be rising much in 2024. Like so many clubs around the league, their offseason dealings were colored by uncertainty surrounding the team’s television rights. While Seattle wasn’t planning to cut payroll like many other clubs around the game, the Seattle Times reported in early December that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, general manager Justin Hollander and the rest of the front office received a smaller budget than anticipated from ownership.

That didn’t stop plenty of speculation regarding Seattle-area native Blake Snell, but a big free agent splash like that never seemed likely given the front office’s apparent budgetary restrictions. Instead, Dipoto went with a familiar approach: operating primarily on the trade market. Even by his own standards, this was an offseason for the ages in terms of wheeling and dealing. The Mariners made a staggering 12 trades over the course of their offseason.

Perhaps most remarkable about that progression of trades isn’t the sheer volume but rather the fact that Seattle held onto its entire crop of vaunted young pitchers. Entering the offseason, it seemed quite likely that one of Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo or Emerson Hancock could be dealt as the team looked to bolster other areas of the roster. Controllable starting pitching is always in demand, and there was less of it available this season than in years past. The Mariners, facing needs at designated hitter, second base, third base and in the outfield, could very likely have moved a young starter and filled multiple holes in one fell swoop.

That wasn’t meant to be, however. Dipoto would reveal that he unsurprisingly received considerable interest in his young pitchers but “never liked the way it looked” before adding that holding onto the entire group as always “Plan A.”

Even if the plan was to hold onto that group, changes were clearly needed. Dipoto hinted at a possible retooling early in the winter suggesting that he hoped add some more contact-oriented bats to the roster in the wake of last year’s prodigious strikeout totals. While the Mariners achieved this to some extent, that desire certainly didn’t inform all of their offseason moves, as many of the team’s new acquisitions still strike out at alarming rates.

Eugenio Suarez was the first domino to fall in this regard. He’d been a solid contributor for the Mariners in each of the two prior seasons but struck out in 31% of his plate appearances along the way and saw his power output dip in 2023. Suarez led the American League in strikeouts in both 2022 and 2023. A substantial dip in his defensive grades could well cause his value to plummet, as he was effectively a league-average bat in ’23 (102 wRC+). His contact rate on pitches in the zone sat more than five percentage points shy of league-average, and on pitches off the plate, it was nearly 13 percentage points shy of the mean. Suarez is making just enough contact and playing just sharp enough defense to remain an above-average regular, but his margin for error is thinning.

In return for Suarez, the Mariners got one of the game’s hardest-throwing young relievers, Carlos Vargas, and a backup catcher who strikes out at a staggering 35% clip: Seby Zavala. While Zavala was acquired for his glove, not his bat, it was a bit curious to see the team cite a desire to improve contact skills and then acquire such a whiff-heavy backstop.  Cal Raleigh will work a larger workload than most starting catchers, but Zavala’s whiffs are still prodigious. For a Mariners club that is as good as any in the game — maybe better than any other — at maximizing bullpen performance, getting a power arm like Vargas is particularly intriguing. Still, the $12MM in cost savings in this deal was surely a motivating factor.

Replacing Suarez at the hot corner will be fellow trade pickup Luis Urias and holdover Josh Rojas, whom the M’s acquired last summer in exchange for Paul Sewald (a move that, in retrospect, perhaps foreshadowed the current offseason’s payroll restrictions, when considering Sewald’s arbitration salary). Urias was a buy-low grab who posted a solid .244/.320/.446 slash in 2021-22 with the Brewers before an injury-ruined ’23 season. In hindsight, the Mariners might regret committing $5MM to him so early, as veteran infielders like Gio Urshela and Amed Rosario signed for a year and $1.5MM apiece late in spring training, but their price tags falling to such extreme levels was generally unforeseeable.

The Suarez trade irked Mariners fans, as it seemed clearly financially motivated to at least some extent, but the trade of Jarred Kelenic, Evan White and Marco Gonzales smacked even more heavily of a salary dump. The M’s acquired a former second-rounder, Cole Phillips, who’d yet to pitch professionally due to injury and a change-of-scenery former prospect in Jackson Kowar. Both have since undergone Tommy John surgery.

Kelenic was a symbol of hope during the Mariners’ last rebuild — touted as a potential outfield cornerstone alongside current face of the franchise Julio Rodriguez. Things simply haven’t panned out that way, however. Kelenic has looked flummoxed by MLB pitching on a repeated basis, particularly fellow lefties. He had a hot start in 2023 but faded immensely before breaking his foot when he kicked a water cooler following a strikeout in a key situation. The Mariners shed $24.25MM of payroll in that deal and received little in return. But dealing Kelenic and his 31.7% strikeout rate did mesh with Dipoto’s goal of improving the team’s contact.

Between the departures of Suarez, Kelenic and free agent Teoscar Hernandez (who signed with the Dodgers on a one-year deal), the M’s bid adieu to a trio who combined for 1788 plate appearances and each struck out in 31% of their plate appearances (or more). In trading Suarez, Kelenic, Gonzales and White, the Mariners also trimmed nearly $37MM off the long-term payroll.

Those weren’t the only cost-driven deals of the winter, however. Dipoto shipped the final three seasons of Robbie Ray’s $115MM contract to the Giants in a trade bringing back old friend Mitch Haniger and right-hander Anthony DeSclafani. The Mariners know just how productive Haniger can be when at his best but are also plenty familiar with his susceptibility to injuries and strikeouts. As with Garver, he’s not a panacea for the team’s contact woes, but Haniger has never punched out at a clip higher than 2019’s 28.6%. He was at 28.4% in 2023 while battling through an oblique strain, a back strain and another fluky injury: a broken arm sustained when he was hit by a pitch.

Outside of last year, Haniger has been an above-average offensive player in every full season of his career. He’ll probably never return to his peak 2017-18 form, but even 2022’s .246/.308/.429 slash was 13% better than average, per wRC+. The Mariners would likely be fine with that level of output, and anything extra would be a bonus.

The Haniger/DeSclafani/Ray trade also set the stage for one of the Mariners’ biggest acquisitions of the offseason. It took several months to come together, but the M’s and Twins finally made good on what was a clear on-paper match from a trade partner standpoint. Seattle acquired switch-hitting second baseman Jorge Polanco from the Twins, sending back DeSclafani to provide some pitching depth, righty Justin Topa to beef up the Minnesota bullpen, and a pair of prospects: Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen. Gonzalez is particularly well-regarded, landing on a handful of top-100 lists this winter. Bowen joined the back end of the Twins’ top 30 prospects. The Mariners included the $6MM of salary relief the Giants provided for DeSclafani and kicked in another $2MM, leaving the Twins on the hook for $4MM of DeSclafani’s $12MM salary.

The Mariners weakened their bullpen, thinned out their rotation depth a bit and traded one of their best outfield prospects to get the trade done. From a roster construction standpoint, however, it worked for both parties. Seattle’s pitching is a strength, while second base was a glaring need. Mariners second basemen hit .205/.294/.313 last season. Only four teams (Giants, Brewers, Rockies, White Sox) saw their second basemen turn in a worse wRC+ mark than Seattle’s collective 75.

Going from that dearth of production to Polanco, who’s slashed .267/.337/.458 over his past 2362 plate appearances in the majors (117 wRC+) is a massive upgrade. Like Haniger, he’s had some recent injury issues, but Polanco is a balanced switch-hitter who’s signed for just $10.5MM in 2024 with a $12MM club option for the 2025 season. Knee and hamstring injuries limited him to 80 games last year, but he’s a clearly above-average hitter and capable defender at second base. His 18.2% career strikeout rate should help the Mariners’ contact goals, though it’s worth noting he did whiff in a career-high 25.7% of his plate appearances last year.

Sending Topa to Minnesota in that trade on the heels of his 2023 breakout — 69 innings, 23 holds, 2.61 ERA, 21.9% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate, 56.7% grounder rate — may also have served as a catalyst for one of the Mariners’ most uncharacteristic moves in recent memory. Seattle has thrived at turning minor league signees, waiver pickups and other little-noticed acquisitions into impact relievers. Topa himself is an example of it. They’ve become so prominent at doing so that the team has even coined the “Steckenrider Bucket” term — a nod to them signing Drew Steckenrider to a minor league pact a few years back and enjoying a dominant season of setup work from the journeyman righty.

Their February acquisition of White Sox closer Gregory Santos, however, marked the rare instance in which the Mariners paid a steep price in a trade for a reliever. It’s easy enough to see why Santos appealed to them. He pitched 66 1/3 innings of 3.39 ERA ball in front of a terrible defense, striking out 22.8% of his opponents against a 5.9% walk rate. Santos kept the ball on the ground at a 52.5% clip, averaged a blistering 98.8 mph on his heater, induced swinging strikes (13.4%) and chases off the plate (34.9%) at high clips, and regularly avoided dangerous contact (34.9% hard-hit rate, 1% barrel rate). Beyond that, he’s controllable for five more years and not arbitration-eligible until after the 2025 season.

Still, sending not only prospects Zach DeLoach and Prelander Berroa, but also a Competitive Balance draft pick that’ll slot in at 69th overall this summer, marked a divergence from the Mariners’ typical methods. Perhaps the M’s grew weary of mining for hidden gems on an annual basis. Perhaps they simply (and quite understandably) loved Santos’ arm and were enamored of the idea of pairing him with Andres Munoz and Matt Brash in the long term. Whatever the rationale, it gives the Mariners a potential three-headed bullpen monster for the ages. Both Brash and Santos are banged up and will begin the season on the injured list, but neither is believed to be facing a monthslong absence. At some point in the not-too-distant future, that trio will be locking down leads for manager Scott Servais. It’s a fun group on which to dream.

Polanco’s acquisition also helped replenish some of the depth the Mariners lost when trading Jose Caballero to the Rays in exchange for slugger Luke Raley. The 27-year-old Caballero debuted and usurped Kolten Wong as the starting second baseman, though he faded quite a bit after a hot start. Flipping him for Raley adds a considerable influx of left-handed power to the Seattle lineup — Raley homered 19 times in just 406 plate appearances and posted a stout .241 ISO — but does also set the club back in terms of contact skills. Raley fanned at a 31.5% rate in 2023. He hasn’t hit lefties at all in his brief MLB career (.206/.257/.324), so he’ll likely be platooned with Dylan Moore or serve as a bench bat, if the club prefers to give hot-hitting Dominic Canzone the first crack at the larger portion of the left field job. Either way, Raley’s out of options, so he’ll be on the roster.

We’re deep into this look back at the Seattle offseason but haven’t even yet touched on the team’s free agent dealings. That’s both a testament to the astonishing volume of trades and also a reflection of a fairly modest offseason in terms of free agent activity. However, the Mariners did shed a good chunk of money in the trades of Suarez, Kelenic/White/Gonzales, and Ray — as much as $43MM overall. That money has since been largely reinvested into the roster.

To replace Hernandez, Seattle signed Mitch Garver to a two-year, $24MM deal. Garver comes with his own strikeout concerns, but not to the extent of the players he’ll effectively be replacing. He’s fanned in 25.6% of his career plate appearances (24.2% over the past two seasons in Texas) and, more importantly, has quietly been one of the best-hitting catchers in the game when healthy.

Seattle will use Garver as the primary DH, though he could potentially suit up for a few games behind the plate depending on the health of Raleigh and Zavala. This was a bat-driven move, however. Over the past three seasons, Garver has hit .249/.347/.479 (128 wRC+) with 42 homers in 802 plate appearances. He’s a career .272/.377/.509 hitter against lefties. He’s been injured often, doesn’t run well and fans more than the average hitter, so there are some concerns. But the Mariners will hope regular DH at-bats keep him in the lineup more frequently — and if they’re right, he has more than enough bat to fill that role.

The aforementioned injuries to Santos, Brash and Kowar in camp proved too much even for a deep Seattle bullpen to withstand without making any noise. As those three relievers were banged up, the Mariners turned back to the free agent market and signed Ryne Stanek — one of the best remaining relievers — to a one-year, $4MM deal. He’s coming off a down season in terms of ERA and strikeout rate, but Stanek posted the first sub-10% walk rate of his career in 2023 and is yet another power-armed reliever with a fastball that sits north of 98 mph. Each of Munoz, Brash and Santos top 98 mph on average, as well.

Seattle’s only other free agent pickup, Austin Voth, is more in line with their traditional bullpen acquisitions. He inked a $1.3MM deal and will open the season as a swingman. The 31-year-old once looked like a potential long-term rotation option with the Nationals but never found consistency in D.C. He was designated for assignment in 2022, thrived down the stretch after landing in Baltimore (3.04 ERA in 22 appearances, including 17 starts), but couldn’t replicate that success in 2023 (5.19 ERA in 34 2/3 innings). The Mariners will be his third club, and if they can get Voth right, he’ll be controllable through the 2025 season via arbitration.

The Mariners overhauled their lineup, essentially swapping out Hernandez, Suarez, Kelenic, Caballero, Wong, Mike Ford, Tom Murphy and AJ Pollock for a group including Polanco, Haniger, Garver, Raley, Urias and Zavala. It’s not a perfect lineup still, the core of Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, J.P. Crawford and Ty France — who’ll ideally have a bounceback season — was always going to be the engine driving a contending Mariners club. The new group might not represent as dramatic a reduction in strikeouts as the front office hoped, but this collection of hitters should indeed put the ball in play more frequently.

And for all that turnover, the Mariners made it work without parting with any of their vaunted young starting pitchers or radically increasing payroll. Trading Miller or Woo for a bat, then signing Snell and Matt Chapman might have been a more straightforward means of operating, but those types of expenditures were never in the cards, given ownership’s budget.

The Mariners kept their core in tact, replaced a good bit of any lost production from the departures of Suarez and Hernandez, and did so while operating within a pretty tight set of financial restrictions. They may not be AL West favorites, but this group should be competitive again and the lineup looks solid, even if it’s a wildly different group than they trotted out a year ago. The biggest acquisitions — Polanco, Garver, Santos — are all signed/controlled through at least 2025 as well, making this whirlwind offseason one that’ll impact them beyond the current campaign.

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

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The Rockies won 59 games last season and made almost no significant additions. They can expect some internal improvements, but this should be one of the worst teams in the National League.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $3MM
Total spending: $3.5MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Rockies got a jump on their offseason just before it began. While the Rox were long since eliminated from playoff contention, the regular season wasn’t quite over when Colorado signed Charlie Blackmon to a one-year extension on September 29. That the Rox wanted to keep the career-long member of the organization for a 14th season wasn’t surprising. The price point, on the other hand, was unexpected. Colorado guaranteed Blackmon $13MM, an odd decision considering he’d been pushed mostly to designated hitter and has been a good, not great, offensive player over the past few years.

Paying an above-market price to prevent Blackmon from getting to free agency seemed a questionable move on day one. It looks even worse considering how the offseason transpired. Colorado’s front office can be forgiven for not anticipating the free agent market for hitters of Blackmon’s ilk would be down. Yet it’s tough to justify in the context of apparent organization payroll restrictions. Pending contract selections of players who are in camp on minor league deals, Blackmon’s salary accounts for more than half the financial commitments that Colorado made this winter.

No team did less in free agency. The Rox’s only major league signings were backup catcher Jacob Stallings and depth starter Dakota Hudson. Both players had been non-tendered by their previous teams. The Rockies announced the signings, which were worth $3.5MM combined, in tandem on January 5. Stallings is a fine backup catcher who had previous success when paired with Colorado’s current starter, Elías Díaz, in Pittsburgh. Hudson keeps the ball on the ground and had some early success with the Cardinals before falling off. He’s an alright rebound target, but his acquisition isn’t going to dramatically change the pitching staff.

The lack of free agent spending might be less notable had Colorado made significant moves on the trade market. They made one trade all winter. That was a buy-low flier on righty Cal Quantrill, who’ll get a spot in the season-opening rotation. Colorado took on a fairly significant $6.55MM arbitration salary in what was largely a financially motivated swap for the Guardians. The Rox sent former seventh-round pick Kody Huff, who projects as a depth catcher, back to Cleveland.

It’s a solid addition. Quantrill didn’t have much success in 2023, but that could be attributable to recurring shoulder issues. The former eighth overall pick is only a season removed from turning in a 3.38 ERA over a full set of 32 starts. Even at his best, Quantrill hasn’t missed many bats. He has plus command and has shown the ability to mostly stay off barrels, though. Colorado can control him through 2025 via arbitration. For little more than a willingness to tender him a contract, he’s a worthwhile flier for a team that entered the winter with almost no starting pitching.

The problem is that Quantrill and Hudson were the only rotation options whom Colorado added to the 40-man roster. It leaves them with arguably the worst group of starting pitchers in the majors. Kyle Freeland is reliable but has never come close to replicating his sterling 2018 season, when he turned in a 2.85 ERA over 33 starts. His stuff has regressed in recent seasons and he allowed more than five earned runs per nine a year ago. Freeland’s velocity has spiked this spring, which is promising, but he’s still miscast as a staff ace.

Beyond him, it’s a host of rebound candidates or development hopefuls. Quantrill will occupy a spot in the middle of the rotation. So will lefty Austin Gomber, who has been inconsistent but showed reasonably well in the second half of last season. Fourth starter Ryan Feltner has an ERA above 6.00 in 32 MLB appearances. Hudson and Peter Lambert (who owns a 6.47 career ERA) are competing for the fifth spot. It’s far from an inspiring group.

Things could look a bit better in 2025, when Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela should be back after Tommy John rehabs. For the upcoming season, skipper Bud Black could have a hard time getting enough innings out of this group. That’d put a lot of strain on a bullpen that, while similarly thin, has some promise towards the back end.

Colorado can hope for better out of Tyler Kinley after a healthy offseason. The righty was brilliant early in 2022 before elbow surgery knocked him out for more than a calendar year. While he struggled late last season, it’s understandable if he hadn’t shaken off the rust. He’s competing with hard-throwing righty Justin Lawrence for the ninth inning.

Colorado grabbed long man Jalen Beeks off waivers from the Rays. He posted an ERA near six last season but had a 2.80 ERA with an above-average 28% strikeout rate as recently as 2022. The Rox took righty Anthony Molina from the Tampa Bay system in the Rule 5 draft. Right-hander Jake Bird returns after tying for the MLB lead with 84 1/3 relief innings a year ago. He posted a solid 4.27 ERA behind a 54.2% ground-ball percentage. Colorado lost Brent Suter to the Reds in free agency, maybe opening a spot in the Opening Day bullpen for a minor league signee like John Curtiss or Geoff Hartlieb.

While the Rockies were surprisingly quiet in sitting out the pitching market, they did even less to address the position player group. Beyond Stallings, the only major league pickup was old friend Sam Hilliard, whom Colorado claimed off waivers in Spring Training. He’s probably competing with minor league signee Bradley Zimmer for a bench job. Hilliard and Zimmer each hit left-handed and are capable of playing center field.

Adding a player of that ilk was a goal for the front office. Starting center fielder Brenton Doyle hits from the right side. He’s an excellent defender but turned in a .203/.250/.353 batting line as a rookie. Right fielder Sean Bouchard is also a right-handed batter. While the UCLA product has posted excellent offensive numbers in a small big league sample, he soon turns 28 and has all of 48 MLB games under his belt. It’s no surprise the Rox wanted another option in case either Doyle or Bouchard stumbles. There’s not as much question in left field, where Nolan Jones had a strong campaign and looks like one of the organization’s most promising players.

Blackmon could occasionally see corner outfield work but will primarily DH. Kris Bryant is moving to first base for the most part as Colorado tries to keep their $182MM signee healthier. Other than that, the starting infield is unchanged. Brendan Rodgers will be back at second base, hopefully with better results than he managed late last summer after returning from shoulder surgery.

Ryan McMahon and Ezequiel Tovar are an excellent defensive tandem on the left side. The Rox will want to see more from the latter offensively. Tovar was a top prospect but had a middling rookie season as a hitter, largely thanks to a very aggressive approach. Still just 22, it’s possible he develops a bit more selectivity in his second extended look at big league pitching.

Stallings replaces Austin Wynns and Brian Serven as the backup catcher behind Díaz. The out-of-options Elehuris Montero should crack the MLB roster as a corner infielder and bench bat. The Rockies non-tendered utilityman Harold Castro, likely clearing a path for Alan Trejo to get back to the big leagues as a depth middle infielder. It’s a bit surprising that Colorado didn’t take a non-roster flier on a veteran who could back up Rodgers and Tovar. Perhaps that’s something they’ll look to address as players trigger opt-outs from minor league deals with other teams on the eve of Opening Day.

That may not be the team’s most pressing goal of the next couple weeks. MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reported over the weekend that the Rockies and Black were in discussions about another contract extension. The Rox have extended the veteran skipper on one-year deals in each of the past two offseasons. He’s signed through 2024, which will be his eighth season at the helm. Colorado is among the sport’s most loyal organizations and has stuck by Black, who certainly hasn’t been given the most talented rosters with which to work.

Aside from a possible managerial extension, it seems fair to presume any late-spring moves would be minor in nature. The Rockies were content to run back the vast majority of last year’s team, which lost a franchise-record 103 games. That’s a reflection of a payroll saddled with underwater investments in Bryant, Freeland and Senzatela (in addition to the $10MM which they still owe the Cardinals as part of the Nolan Arenado trade). The Rox were also hit by the broadcasting challenges facing a large portion of the league. AT&T Sports abandoned their local TV deal at the end of last season, cutting off a source of revenue that reportedly paid the team around $57MM last year. MLB is distributing the team’s games in-market for 2024.

Beyond the revenue challenges, the Rockies still haven’t shown a clear path to putting a competitive roster on the field. That might be easier to visualize later in the season if prospects like Adael Amador, Yanquiel Fernandez, Drew Romo and Zac Veen get to the big leagues. 2022 college draftee Sterlin Thompson might not be much further off. The Rockies took a flier on Chase Dollander with last year’s ninth overall selection to add the highest-ceiling pitching prospect they’ve had in the organization in some time. They’ll pick third in the upcoming draft and appear headed for high odds of another lottery pick in 2025.

That’s probably of diminishing solace for a fanbase that has seen the team finish in fourth or fifth in the NL West five years running. On paper, there’s a huge gap between Colorado and everyone else in their division yet again. Aside from Todd Helton’s Hall of Fame induction, this will probably be another tough summer for Rockies fans.

 

Hitters Approaching Significant Career Milestones

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The 2024 season is just days away. It’s a time of renewed hope for at least the vast majority of teams. It also opens the opportunity for a few veteran players to continue building on what have already been very accomplished careers, some of which should happen early in the year.

Hits

Among active players, Joey Votto leads the way with 2135 career hits. Votto is on a minor league deal with the Blue Jays and might start the season in Triple-A. Freeman will be back in the middle of a loaded Dodger lineup. While he won’t reach any notable round numbers this season — he has a shot to get to 2500 by the end of the ’25 season if he stays healthy — he’ll continue his ascent up the leaderboard in the next few months. Freeman needs only 51 more hits to surpass the original Billy Hamilton and climb into the top 200 on the all-time list. If he tops 200 hits for the second straight season, he’d pull alongside Eddie Mathews into the top 150 by year’s end.

Goldschmidt is 91 hits away from reaching the 2000 club. He’d almost certainly be the 297th player to get to that threshold, depending on whether Evan Longoria decides to continue playing. Longo is only 70 knocks away from that mark but was undecided on whether he’ll give things another go at last check. Even if Longoria does return, Goldschmidt could surpass him on the career leaderboard within a couple months. The 2022 NL MVP hasn’t had a stint on the injured list in almost a decade. If that continues, he should pick up hit #2000 sometime around the All-Star Break.

Notable players approaching 1500 hits: Mookie Betts (1485), Starling Marte (1470), Justin Turner (1461), Giancarlo Stanton (1454), Nick Castellanos (1451), Salvador Pérez (1411)

Home Runs

Stanton is the only active player with more than 400 career homers. There aren’t any traditional milestones upcoming but a 30-homer showing would put him in rare territory. Cal Ripken Jr. currently sits 50th all-time with 431 longballs. Stanton isn’t a lock to get there this year, as his overall production has plummeted over the past two seasons. Still, he topped 30 in both 2021 and ’22 and hit another 24 last year despite the worst numbers of his career.

Trout is the only player with a realistic shot to join Stanton in the 400-club this year, as he sits 32 away from that mark. After Votto and Longoria, Goldschmidt is next among active players at 60 homers away. Trout only hit 18 homers a year ago thanks to a hamate fracture in his left wrist. He’s only one season removed from popping 40, though. He’ll need to stay healthy, but he could get to 400 career homers in August or September.

Goldy will need to wait until 2025 to have a chance at the 400-homer plateau, but he’s nearing a notable spot on the leaderboard. With his ninth homer this year, he’d surpass George Foster and move into the top 100 in MLB history. As is the case with the hits milestone, Longoria could complicate this. Longo is at 342 career homers, although it’s unlikely he’ll hit seven more before Goldschmidt picks up his ninth of the season.

McCutchen and Rizzo should each join the 300-homer club early in the year. McCutchen almost certainly would’ve gotten there late last season were it not for a partially torn Achilles suffered in early September. The Pirates begin the season on a seven-game road trip before welcoming the Orioles to PNC Park in their home opener.

Rizzo also suffered an injury that kept him from the 300-homer plateau last year. After a torrid start, he suffered through a dismal slump related to what the Yankees believe was post-concussion syndrome arising out of a collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. on May 28. They shut him down in August. McCutchen and Rizzo should become the 12th and 13th active players (including Votto, Longoria and J.D. Martinez) to get to the 300-homer mark.

No one else is knocking on the doorstep of 300, although there could be one more late-season entrant to the group. Aaron Judge enters the year with 257 career longballs. A 43-homer showing is certainly within the range of outcomes if he stays healthy.

Notable players approaching 200 homers: Joey Gallo (198), Brandon Belt (194), Christian Yelich (193), Pete Alonso (192), Randal Grichuk (191), Justin Turner (187), Joc Pederson (186), Kris Bryant (182), Max Muncy (180), Cody Bellinger (178), Javier Báez (175), Xander Bogaerts (175)

RBI

There are nine active players who have driven in more than 1000 runs over the course of their careers: Longoria, Votto, Freeman, Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, McCutchen, Stanton, Carlos Santana and Martinez. The next five up all have a chance to join them, although it’d take a monster year from Harper to drive in 111. (Harper has topped that once, picking up 114 RBI for the Phillies in 2019.) Abreu, Machado and Trout should get there if they stay healthy. Rizzo could be a borderline case but drove in 70 as recently as two seasons ago.

Stolen Bases

Among active players, Elvis Andrus leads the way with 347 career steals. He’s on a minor league deal with the D-Backs, though, so Starling Marte (338) is tops among players currently on a 40-man roster. Altuve and Turner are next in line and could each get to 300 this season. Altuve should do so with relative ease, even if he doesn’t run nearly as often as he did early in his career. Turner has an uphill battle. While he has twice topped 40 steals in a season, he hasn’t gotten past 32 in any of the last three years. To his credit, he went 30-30 last year, so there’s no questioning his efficiency.

Wins Above Replacement, bWAR

WAR doesn’t lend itself to milestone tracking with the same ease as the simpler counting stats. A player’s WAR total can go backwards, for one, and there’s no specific in-game moment when they’ll pass a certain threshold. Even if it’s not the easiest statistic to follow in real time, it’s one that teams and many Hall of Fame voters take into account, so it’s worth highlighting a few players.

The aforementioned hamate injury kept Trout to a modest 3-win season a year ago. B-Ref credited him with over six wins in 2022. Replicating that production would make him the only active player to surpass the 90-WAR threshold for his career, a mark topped by only 30 position players in league history. Trout currently sits 33rd on that list. He should pass Chipper Jones and George Brett this year, with an outside chance of tracking down Wade Boggs, Jimmie Foxx and Al Kaline.

With another star-level season, Betts will surpass the 70-WAR threshold. Coincidentally, 70 position players in league history have gotten to that level. Of those players who are eligible for Hall of Fame consideration, only eight (Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Pete Rose, Bill Dahlen, Lou Whitaker, Rafael Palmeiro, Bobby Grich and Carlos Beltrán) aren’t enshrined in Cooperstown. There’s already no real doubt that Betts is en route to the Hall of Fame, but crossing the 70-WAR mark will further entrench him among the elite players in MLB history.

Notable players approaching 60 WAR: Freeman (55.7), Machado (54.9), Arenado (54.4)

Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

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The Marlins snuck into the playoffs in 2023, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. Despite that, it ended up being an offseason focused on changing and planning for the future.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $5MM
Total spending: $5MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Marlins got to pop some champagne last year but it quickly went flat. They were eliminated by the Phillies, swept out of the Wild Card series by losing 4-1 on October 3 and then 7-1 on October 4. Shortly thereafter, on October 6, it was reported that Sandy Alcántara would require Tommy John surgery, putting their ace out of action for the 2024 season.

But it was nonetheless a refreshing season for the club. The Marlins hadn’t even had a winning record in a full season since 2009, so to get over .500 and squeeze out a couple of playoff games was a nice step forward, relatively speaking. That’s why it registered as a surprise that the winter began with a front office shakeup. By mid-October, it was reported that the club and general manager Kim Ng would be parting ways.

Ng, who had been in that job since November of 2020, was on an expiring contract. There was a mutual option for 2024 but she was reportedly informed by owner Bruce Sherman that he planned to hire a president of baseball operations to work over her. The club triggered their end of the option but she decided not to trigger hers, an understandable move since it would essentially amount to a demotion after dragging the club into the postseason.

It was later reported that Sherman had concerns about the organization’s reputation for drafting and developing, particularly on the position player side, as the club has often had strong pitching staffs in recent years but the lineup has largely been built via trade. Despite many losing seasons in recent memory and plenty of high draft picks, on top of the club getting extra picks and strong international bonus pools as a revenue-sharing recipient, the club’s farm is not held in high esteem. Baseball America currently ranks them 27th out of the 30 teams in the league, FanGraphs 26th, The Athletic 28th while MLB Pipeline and ESPN both have them at 29th.

As such, change was the name of the game in Miami. Ng was eventually replaced by Peter Bendix, who had been working across the state for the Rays. Given that Tampa Bay has a strong reputation for consistently churning out young talent with limited resources, it seems Miami is hoping to bring some of that magic down south. But that wasn’t the only move in the suit-and-tie section, as scouting director D.J. Svihlik was let go, former player and coach Gabe Kapler was brought aboard to fill a front office role as assistant general manager, Rachel Balkovec was hired as director of player management, Sam Mondry-Cohen as the team’s new vice-president of player personnel and Sara Goodrum as director of special projects.

In contrast to that flurry of changes, the roster hasn’t had a lot of significant turnover compared to last year. Arguably, the most notable change is that slugger Jorge Soler will no longer be a part of the club. He hit 36 home runs last year and decided to opt out and retry free agency, leaving $13MM on the table. That ended up being a wise move, as he secured a three-year, $42MM deal from the Giants. The Marlins didn’t receive any compensation for his departure as they opted not to issue him a $20.325MM qualifying offer.

Soler told reporters in January that the Marlins had not reached out to him about a reunion. There was some contradictory reporting later that month that suggested the club was indeed talking to Soler about coming back, but after signing with the Giants he again affirmed that he had no contact with the club over the winter.

It seems the club had little appetite on spending money to address the designated hitter vacancy. They’ve recently been connected to J.D. Martinez, who remains unsigned, but the odds of him landing in Miami seem low.

The lack of interest in free agency wasn’t limited to the DH spot, as the club spent close to nothing this winter. They came into the offseason with clear holes at the shortstop and catcher positions but didn’t attack those spots with much gusto.

Christian Bethancourt sort of fell into their laps as the Rays, the former club of Bendix, put the catcher and several other players on waivers in the hopes of cutting costs. The Guardians won the claim but later signed Austin Hedges and flipped Bethancourt to the Marlins for cash. Bethancourt and the Fish eventually avoided arbitration by agreeing to a salary of $2.05MM.

Bethancourt is generally considered a solid defender, particularly with the running game, but his offense is inconsistent. He hit .252/.283/.409 in 2022 but dropped to .225/.254/.381 last year, his wRC+ going from 100 to 74. Regardless, he has a decent chance of being better than Jacob Stallings, who is also renowned for his glovework but hit just .210/.287/.290 with Miami over the past two seasons.

At shortstop, they were connected to various names like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Amed Rosario, Nick Ahmed and Gio Urshela, but the position remained unaddressed until late February. The offseason had slowed considerably and plenty of free agents remained unsigned at that point, allowing the Marlins to take a $5MM flier on Tim Anderson.

He is coming off a dreadful season, having hit just one home run with a diminished batting average and lesser defensive metrics as well. But he was a solid everyday shortstop for many years prior to that and will be a bargain if he can turn things around. A knee injury suffered early in last year’s campaign perhaps offers an explanation for his poor results, as his sprint speed was down compared to previous seasons.

From 2017 to 2021, he posted double-digit home run totals, even in the shortened 2020 season. He got to double-digit steals in each of those full seasons as well. In 2022, he missed time due to injuries and only got into 79 games but still hit .301/.339/.395 for a wRC+ of 110. FanGraphs considered him to be worth at least two wins above replacement in each year from 2018 to 2022 and in 2016 as well.

There was also a lot of trade chatter around the club’s starting rotation, as has become the norm in recent years. But the club’s long-standing rotation surplus has been diminished, which made a trade less likely. The club traded away Pablo López last offseason as part of the deal to bring in Luis Arráez, and the aforementioned Tommy John surgery for Alcántara subtracted another hugely important arm.

That didn’t stop clubs from sniffing around, as Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera were the subject of trade rumors this winter. As of right now, the Fish have decided to hold onto the pitchers they have, which is probably for the best. Both Garrett and Cabrera are dealing with shoulder injuries here in camp and are questionable for Opening Day, while Eury Pérez is likely to open the season the shelf as he battles a broken fingernail and elbow soreness.

Most of those issues appear to be fairly minor and there’s nothing to suggest any of them is facing a lengthy absence, but the depth is going to be tested early on. Had the club decided to pull the trigger on a Luzardo deal, the picture would have looked even worse. Long-time reliever A.J. Puk has been stretched out and it seems like the injuries could give him plenty of runway to return to a starting gig, something that he did as a prospect.

In the end, the club will be going into 2024 with a fairly similar roster to last year, though it’s debatable whether that’s a good thing. Despite making the playoffs, the club actually had a -57 run differential last year, putting them in the bottom 10 of major league teams. They had an incredible 33-14 record in one-run games, allowing them to go 84-78 despite an expected win-loss of 74-88, a tough feat to repeat with consistency. That’s particularly true with a pair of notable subtractions in the bullpen. Puk figures to move to the starting staff, while the Fish flipped Steven Okert to the Twins for utility player Nick Gordon early in camp.

Soler will be gone, with Avisaíl García perhaps picking up his at-bats if he can stay healthy. Full seasons from last year’s deadline pickups Josh Bell and Jake Burger could also factor in for some more thump in the lineup. Joey Wendle is out as the regular shortstop and Anderson would be an upgrade if he puts 2023 behind him. Bethancourt will likely be a bit better than Stallings behind the dish. Losing Alcántara hurts but perhaps it won’t be so bad if the club can get steps forward from younger pitchers like Puk, Pérez, Cabrera, Max Meyer or Trevor Rogers.

Ultimately, the future of the franchise will likely be written behind the scenes, as the club seems determined to overhaul its systems for evaluating and developing younger players. As a franchise that generally doesn’t spend much, it’s important for the organization to provide productive players from within, as those players are more affordable than veteran free agents.

That could lead to significant changes down the road but the 2024 club isn’t substantially different from the 2023 version. Whether that can lead to another strong season in a tough National League East remains to be seen.

Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers

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The Tigers had a fairly encouraging season last year and spent the offseason bolstering the depth with various mid-tier acquisitions.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $37.25MM
Total spending: $47.25MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Tigers had a somewhat encouraging season in 2023, with various players either returning to health or taking a step forward in terms of performance. They were never really in contention, but did manage to go 39-34 after the All-Star break and sneak into second place in the American League Central.

That vaguely echoed the club’s 2021 campaign, where they went 37-34 after the break and felt like they had a chance of coming out of their rebuild. They spent big on Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodríguez that winter but the 2022 campaign turned into a disaster. General manager Al Avila was fired in August and the Tigers eventually finished 66-96.

Avila was eventually replaced as the club’s top decision maker when Scott Harris was hired as president of baseball operations. Harris seemed leery of making the same mistake as Avila and didn’t want to overplay the club’s hand this winter.

“Sometimes, teams overestimate their proximity to being a team that’s right on the verge of the playoffs,” Harris said in November. “And they spend a lot of money and it doesn’t push them forward. It pushes them back.” He added that the Tigers are going in the right direction but “can’t do anything in free agency or in trades that sets us back. If we find an opportunity that’s going to push us forward and we’re confident of that, we’re going to do it.”

That threw some cold water on the Tigers being big players in free agency, though they could have done so if they wanted. Miguel Cabrera’s contract finally reached its end, which freed up a lot of capital in the club’s budget. The Tigers went into this offseason with nothing committed beyond 2024 except for the Báez deal. That deal pays him salaries of $25MM or $24MM for the remaining four years, which isn’t nothing.

But the club has run payrolls as high as $200MM in the past, as their last competitive window was shutting down, as shown at Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That spending was under owner Mike Ilitch, who passed away in 2017. His son Chris has been calling the shots since then and hasn’t had the budget as high, but the club has also been rebuilding in that time and hasn’t had the need to spend wildly. With some encouraging developments on the roster and Cabrera’s deal gone, it was at least possible to dream on the club coming out firing.

That made it at least somewhat plausible when the club was connected to Yoshinobu Yamamoto early in the winter. But the comments from Harris pointed to a more measured offseason, which is what eventually transpired.

Yamamoto went to the Dodgers but the Tigers did make a couple of additions to their rotation. Kenta Maeda was added via a modest two-year, $24MM pact. It might not be the most exciting signing, with a cynic able to point to the facts that Maeda is about to turn 36, missed all of 2022 due to internal brace surgery and then posted a middling 4.23 ERA in 2023.

But there’s also a more optimistic lens through which to view the deal. Maeda went on the injured list due to a triceps strain in late April last year, right after getting shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. That poor performance could perhaps have been a byproduct of his injury, as he finished quite strong after he recovered. He was activated off the IL in June and put up a 3.36 ERA the rest of the way, pairing an excellent 29% strikeout rate with a strong 7% walk rate.

The Tigers also added Jack Flaherty on a one-year “prove it” deal. Flaherty was one of the best pitchers in league in 2019 but struggled with his health over the three following campaigns. He was finally healthy again in 2023 but finished the year with a 4.99 ERA.

If Flaherty can take a step forward in terms of results now that he’s further removed from his health troubles, the Tigers will be the beneficiary. They can either trade him at the deadline or give him a qualifying offer at season’s end, depending on how things play out.

The Maeda and Flaherty deals perhaps aren’t as exciting as a major splash would have been, but they raise the floor of the rotation. Perhaps more importantly, they do little to hurt the club in the future. Flaherty’s deal is just for one year while Maeda’s is only two, and slightly frontloaded. He’ll made $14MM this year and just $10MM in 2025, meaning he’ll do little to hamper any spending the club may try next winter.

The approach was similar with other parts of the roster. The club has some intriguing outfielders in Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, Kerry Carpenter and Akil Baddoo. But they are all fairly inexperienced and all happen to hit from the left side. The Tigers decided to complement that group by acquiring Mark Canha from the Brewers.

Canha had actually finished the final guaranteed year of his contract, but there was an $11.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout. The Tigers sent a modest return, minor league reliever Blake Holub, in order to get Canha at that reasonable price point. He’ll provide their young outfielders with a veteran presence and give the club a solid right-handed-hitting veteran, while not committing them to anything beyond this year.

That approach carried to the infield as well, with the Tigers having some uncertainty at both second base and third base. They had internal options for those spots with guys like Zach McKinstry, Andy Ibañez and Matt Vierling on the roster, though the guys in that group are arguably best suited to multi-positional part-time roles. They also had prospects like Colt Keith, Jace Jung and Justyn-Henry Malloy, though none had reached the majors by the end of 2023 and Malloy was likely slated for a move to the outfield due to his subpar infield defense.

The club added to this group by making a late signing of third baseman, Gio Urshela, who lingered on the open market well into February. The Tigers were able to get him to put pen to paper for just $1.5MM. He’s coming off an injury-marred season with the Angels but he’ll be a bargain if he can get back to health and the kind of form he showed with the Yankees and Twins.

As for second base, the club signalled its intentions there by signing Keith to a six-year extension with three club options as well. It was a remarkable show of faith in a player who has yet to make his major league debut, but he has continued to hit at every level he’s played. He hit .306/.380/.552 between Double-A and Triple-A last year while just 21 years old for much of the year, as he turned 22 in mid-August.

Ultimately, the club’s young players will determine the future of the franchise. Keith, Jung, Malloy, Meadows, Greene, Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson are all controlled through at least 2028. On the pitching side, Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize can still be retained through 2026 while Reese Olson, Matt Manning and Sawyer Gipson-Long are controllable beyond that. Pitching prospects like Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden and Jackson Jobe are creating some buzz despite not yet having reached the majors.

For this year, that young core will have some help from the veterans that the club brought in. Maeda and Flaherty join the rotation, Canha and Urshela on the position player side. The bullpen got a couple of veteran additions as well, with lefty Andrew Chafin and righty Shelby Miller signed to one-year deals.

If a few things break right, it’s possible to imagine the club competing this year. As mentioned, they were above .500 after the break last year and the division is arguably the weakest in the sport. The Royals were aggressive this winter but face a steep climb after losing 106 games last year. The Guardians did almost nothing this offseason. The White Sox are tearing things down. The Twins are the reigning champions in the division and are still strong overall but made some cost-cutting moves and are arguably in a weaker position than they were last year.

The Tigers will see how things go and will continue to have a fairly wide open future. The Keith extension added some more money to the long-term ledger, but they still have less than $40MM committed to each season beyond this one. As things develop, there should be plenty of opportunity to hit the gas whenever the front office decides the time is right.

One thing that would appear to be a constant in that future is the presence of manager A.J. Hinch. He and the club agreed to a long-term extension in December. The details of that new arrangement aren’t clear, but he was previously under contract through 2025, so he is now locked in beyond that. He was hired by the previous Avila regime, so this new deal acted as a sort of symbolic stamp of approval from the Harris front office, showcasing that the two sides could indeed work together while helping to avoid any conversations about future lame-duck situations.

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds almost made the playoffs last year as they promoted several exciting prospects and seemed to firmly end their rebuilding period. They added to that foundation this offseason by spreading money around to several free agents.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $61.75MM
Total spending: $111.75MM

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

Though the Reds came up just shy of a postseason berth in 2023, it was still an encouraging campaign. Exciting prospects like Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Andrew Abbott and Noelvi Marté all debuted, adding to a roster of young talent that already included TJ Friedl, Spencer Steer, Will Benson, Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and others.

It was a turning point moment for the franchise in another way as well. In addition to that infusion of young talent, 2023 was the final guaranteed year of Joey Votto’s long-running contract. Signed way back in 2012, he had many excellent seasons for the Reds. But as is so often the case with lengthy contracts, the final years weren’t especially pleasant. Votto missed time in each of the past two years thanks to shoulder surgery. He could have been retained via a club option but the Reds understandably wanted to give more playing time to younger players.

It’s a bittersweet pivot for the club, as Votto is a franchise legend and was one of the few reasons to watch during some challenging years. But he was making $25MM annually in the final years of his contract, a sizeable chunk of change for a club that doesn’t generally run high payrolls. He lingered in free agency for a while but recently signed with the Blue Jays on a minor league deal which comes with a modest $2MM base salary if he makes the club.

With Votto’s contract off the books, the Reds were able to have one of their busiest offseasons in recent memory. Their huge supply of position players seemed to not only squeeze out Votto, but also led to plenty of speculation about a trade. Since the club had an on-paper infield of Marté, De La Cruz, McLain and Encarnacion-Strand, it seemed that Steer was going to be pushed to the outfield and India onto the trading block.

Despite persistent rumors, the club was consistent in maintaining that India wasn’t going anywhere. The 2021 National League Rookie of the Year is coming off two injury-marred campaigns but the Reds seemed to believe in a bounceback and also to value his clubhouse presence. Not only was he not traded, he got a two-year deal to avoid arbitration, locking in a salary for 2025.

The club not making a trade was one surprise, but it was even more surprising when they added another infielder. They signed Jeimer Candelario to a three-year, $45MM deal with a club option for 2027. His presence further crowded the infield picture, but the Reds don’t have a strict DH, so they could use that spot to rotate their many infielders through. Candelario also gave them a bit of insurance if any of their young infielders suffered an injury or a sophomore slump and needed to return to the minors for a spell.

In hindsight, it now looks wise that they added to their infield, as Marté was recently hit with an 80-game suspension for a positive PED test. As he will sit out the first half of the season, the infield suddenly looks far less crowded. Candelario can play both corner spots but will now likely replace Marté as the regular third baseman.

Elsewhere in the position player mix, the club was facing a slight catching shortage. Last year, they had three backstops, with Luke Maile and Curt Casali in the mix. That allowed Tyler Stephenson to serve as the designated hitter and occasionally play first base. He had a bit of a down year but at least the smaller workload behind the plate kept him off the injured list. Each of Maile and Casili became free agents but the Reds re-signed Maile. Since Casali signed elsewhere, it seems they will pivot to a more traditional two-catcher setup this year.

But the main target of the offseason was pitching. The pitchers on the 2023 club were fairly inexperienced and they also dealt with a number of injuries. The pitching staff as a whole had a 4.83 earned run average last year, better than just five other clubs in the majors. The rotation was even worse, with the Cincy starters posting a 5.43 ERA, better than just the Athletics and Rockies.

They could have expected some improvement just with their incumbent options. Each of Greene, Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft spent time on the injured list last year, while Abbott was only able to log 109 1/3 innings due to his midseason promotion. But the club wasn’t content to rely solely on improvements from that group and went on to cast a wide net this winter in looking for upgrades. Their interest extended to notable free agents and trade targets, including Sonny Gray, Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Yariel Rodríguez and Wade Miley.

They didn’t seem to find much traction in those pursuits. The talks with the White Sox about Cease stalled when the Sox seemingly asked for four or five notable prospects, a price that the Reds were understandably unwilling to pay.

Instead, their big rotation addition came from free agency. The club took a bounceback flier on Frankie Montas, who has been battling shoulder issues for quite some time. He missed some time late in 2022 due to his shoulder and was shaky when on the mound, then required surgery going into 2023 which wiped out most of that season.

There’s certainly risk in giving $16MM to a pitcher with those health concerns, but it’s only for one year and will be a bargain if Montas can get back to his previous self. He made 32 starts with the A’s in 2021 with a 3.37 ERA, 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 42.8% ground ball rate.

The club also bolstered their staff by signing swingman Nick Martínez, who will likely be in the rotation but could eventually end up in the bullpen depending on how things play out. He has worked both roles with the Padres over the past two years, giving Cincy some flexibility to assess the health and performance of Greene, Abbott, Lodolo, Ashcraft and others.

In case Martinez is needed in the rotation, the club also reinforced their bullpen in other ways. They took a gamble on Emilio Pagán, signing him to a two-year deal. He’s coming off a strong season, having posted a 2.99 ERA with the Twins in 2023. But he’s a flyball pitcher who saw his home run to flyball rate drop to 5.3% on the season. The previous three seasons saw that rate fall in the 13-19% range as his ERA finished between 4.43 and 4.83 in those years. Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park was the most homer-friendly venue in the league last year, per Statcast, so the move is a bit eyebrow-raising.

On the other hand, their signing of Brent Suter looks like a steal. He has kept his ERA under 4.00 in five straight seasons, generally doing a great job limiting hard contact. That continued in 2023 even though he moved to the hitter’s haven of Coors Field. He likely could have secured a contract larger than one year and $3MM if he looked to maximize his guarantee, but he grew up in Cincinnati and went to high school there, perhaps leading him to take a bit of a discount to play for his hometown team. Buck Farmer was also brought back to Cincy on a modest deal.

All told, the club boosted the floor in a lot of different areas. They added a couple of starters to the rotation, a few relievers to the bullpen and even added to the already-strong position player mix. Perhaps the recent news about Marté will lead them to dip back into free agency, as there are still players out there.

The club was previously connected to Michael A. Taylor, who remains unsigned. He can provide elite defense and his right-handed bat would pair well with lefty-swinging outfielders like Friedl, Jake Fraley and Will Benson. Steer and India are both right-handed and in the mix for outfield playing time but the Marté suspension might open up some infield playing time for them, perhaps making the fit for someone like Taylor more viable.

Regardless of how that plays out, the roster looks strong going into 2024. They were carried by their lineup last year and almost made the playoffs, despite dismal results from their pitching staff. Even a slight correction could be enough to make them a legit playoff club, but they also increased their chances by signing Montas, Martínez, Pagán, Suter and Farmer. Internal improvements from Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Ashcraft and others would only help matters.

The National League Central is fairly wide open, with no clear favorite. The Reds clearly sensed they have a chance this year and are trying to take advantage. They didn’t make any blockbuster moves but strengthened the roster in several other ways.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

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The Astros entered the offseason anticipating a few depth acquisitions. An injury to one of their anticipated setup relievers spurred them in another direction: a bold strike for one of the sport’s best late-game weapons.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $25MM
Total spending: $107MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Astros very narrowly missed another trip to the World Series. They dropped two straight at home against the Rangers to lose a seven-game ALCS. Watching their in-state rivals secure the first championship in franchise history might add some fuel to the fire, but the Astros would’ve remained firmly in win-now mode no matter how things played in October.

That didn’t necessarily portend an active winter. Houston went into the offseason with a projected franchise-record payroll. They have one of the sport’s most complete rosters. They were set to lose a few contributors but no instrumental piece of the core. Michael Brantley (who eventually announced his retirement), Martín Maldonado and the relief trio of Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek were Houston’s only free agents of note.

As a result, general manager Dana Brown indicated early in the winter that the team didn’t expect to do anything drastic. He suggested their outside acquisitions were likely to be more of the depth variety, identifying backup catcher and middle relief as the target areas.

Before they could turn their attention fully to the roster, the Astros had to address the coaching staff. Dusty Baker stepped down at year’s end, concluding what’ll almost certainly be a Hall of Fame managerial career. Joe Espada, who had worked as bench coach under both A.J. Hinch and Baker, has long seemed to be a manager-in-waiting. The Astros tabbed Espada in mid-November, giving the 48-year-old his first managerial opportunity. Organizational stalwart Omar López moved up to bench coach.

Continuity was also a theme for much of the roster, although the Astros started the offseason with a few moves around the margins. During the Winter Meetings, they inked former Brewer Victor Caratini to a two-year, $12MM pact to serve as backup catcher. That marked the end of Maldonado’s run in Houston. The Astros declared before the winter that they’d turn the primary catching job to 25-year-old Yainer Díaz, who brings a lot more offensive upside than Maldonado offers. Given Maldonado’s stature in the clubhouse, it probably would have been tough to move him fully to a backup role in Houston. It made more sense to let him sign elsewhere — he eventually landed with the White Sox on a $4.25MM pact — and bring in a new #2 option.

Caratini wound up being Houston’s only MLB free agent position player pickup of the winter. It was their only major league signing at all well into January. That’s when the club revealed that Kendall Graveman required shoulder surgery that’d end his 2024 season before it got off the ground. Between Graveman’s injury and the aforementioned trio of free agent losses, the relief corps suddenly looked alarmingly thin behind the late-inning duo of Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu.

Brown initially played coy, saying the Graveman injury wouldn’t add any urgency to bring in relief help. Yet it clearly concerned both the front office and ownership, who signed off on a surprising strike at the top of the market. Within three days of announcing the Graveman news, the Astros inked Josh Hader to a five-year, $95MM pact. It’s the second-largest guarantee to a reliever in MLB history and the highest in terms of net present value after accounting for deferrals in Edwin Díaz’s $102MM deal with the Mets.

It was a completely out of character splurge for the organization. While owner Jim Crane has approved player payrolls in the upper third of the league, the organization has been averse to long-term free agent commitments. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the Hader deal was the first time the Astros stretched to five years on a free agent since Crane purchased the franchise in 2011. They’d only even gone to four years once before on the $52MM Josh Reddick pact. It was also the first time that Houston signed a player who had declined a qualifying offer.

Crane and Brown considered it worthwhile to deviate from typical procedure to add arguably the sport’s best reliever while the team’s path to a title remains clear. The five-time All-Star is coming off a 1.28 ERA showing while striking out almost 37% of batters faced for the Padres. Houston gave up their second-round pick and $500K in international signing bonus space to install him in the ninth inning. That bumps Pressly into setup work, where he’ll pair with Abreu in what should be an electric back of the bullpen.

Strong as that final trio is, the middle relief group does look like a relative weak point. The Hader signing meant the Astros eschewed a volume approach to addressing the middle innings. They claimed Oliver Ortega off waivers and took a flier on Dylan Coleman in a minor trade with the Royals. Beyond that, they’re counting on Rafael Montero to rebound from a poor season and hoping for steps forward from an internal option like Brandon Bielak or Seth Martinez. Brown acknowledged over the weekend the team is still looking to add middle relief help. That’d need to come via trade, waivers or potentially a minor league free agent pickup at this point.

As far as weaknesses go, middle relief is one of the easier problems to navigate. The Astros don’t have much concern throughout the rest of the roster. Caratini and first baseman Trey Cabbage, acquired from the Angels after a DFA, were the only position player pickups of the winter. Caratini and Díaz make for a strong catching tandem. José Abreu had a disappointing first year in Houston, but he perhaps found his power stroke in the final few weeks of the season. They’ll give him another shot at first base. Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman round out an excellent infield.

Brantley’s departure puts a little more pressure on the in-house outfielders. Kyle Tucker should provide star production in right field. Chas McCormick has been an above-average regular and should get the bulk of playing time in left field. The Astros will turn center field to defensive stalwart Jake Meyers. McCormick can handle center on days when Yordan Alvarez trots out to left field. Mauricio Dubón remains on hand as a multi-positional option off the bench.

There wasn’t much turnover in the position player group. That could change next offseason, as Bregman is on track to hit free agency. That even led to speculation that the Astros could preemptively dangle him in trade talks this winter, although the organization quickly shot down that idea. Brown and Crane each said the team will make an extension offer to Bregman at some point, but that won’t be cheap. His camp could set out in search of a deal exceeding $200MM. The same is true for Tucker, who is controllable via arbitration through the 2025 season.

Like Bregman, Altuve had been on track to hit free agency at the end of the upcoming season. It was difficult to envision the franchise stalwart donning any other uniform. The Astros and his camp all but ensured that won’t happen. They locked in a five-year, $125MM extension covering the 2025-29 seasons. That runs through Altuve’s age-39 campaign, ensuring he’ll be the franchise second baseman through the end of this competitive cycle. Altuve’s defensive grades are declining, but he remains the sport’s best offensive second baseman. Keeping him in the leadoff spot maximizes their chances of staying atop the AL West in the middle third of the decade.

The extension discussion isn’t limited to the position player side. Framber Valdez is down to his final two seasons of arbitration control. He won’t hit free agency until age 32, so he doesn’t have the same earning power as Tucker or Bregman do. Yet he’s deep enough into arbitration that he’d surely cost more than the $64MM which Houston guaranteed Cristian Javier last spring. A Valdez deal would likely go into nine figures. He and the Astros haven’t found an agreeable price point yet. As with Bregman, this led to some early-offseason trade speculation that never seemed to get far.

For now, Valdez slots back in as Houston’s top starter. That might’ve been true even if Justin Verlander were healthy, but the latter will begin the season on the injured list as he cautiously builds up after experiencing shoulder soreness early in camp. Javier, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown will follow Valdez in the season-opening rotation. J.P. France will get the nod as the #5 starter so long as he’s fully recovered from a minor shoulder issue of his own. If France does need to miss time, Bielak, Ronel Blanco or prospect Spencer Arrighetti could find themselves in the mix.

It’s a thinner rotation than the ones which the Astros have rolled out in previous years. That could be a concern around the deadline, but Brown has stated a few times it’s not something they feel compelled to address before Opening Day. Verlander’s IL stay isn’t expected to be too long. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia could each be back from arm surgeries in the middle of the season. The front office should have a clearer idea in the summer of the extent to which they can rely on McCullers and Garcia down the stretch.

The gap in the AL West isn’t as wide as it once was. The Rangers and Mariners both pushed last year’s division race into the final weekend of the regular season. Texas got the last laugh in October. Still, the Astros have taken the AL West crown in six of the last seven seasons (all aside from the shortened 2020 schedule). They’ve gotten as far as the ALCS every year since 2017. This probably won’t be the best Astro team of the last few years, but there’s certainly enough talent to put them in the conversation at the top of the American League yet again.

 

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Guardians

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Beyond the Guardians’ search for a new manager, most of Cleveland’s offseason headlines focused on the drama surrounding the club’s broadcasting contracts, leading to an unusually quiet winter.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $4.75MM
Total spending: $4.75MM

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The “future manager” tag was affixed to Stephen Vogt well before he ended his 10-year MLB playing career, and once he retired following the 2022 season, it didn’t take long for Vogt to land his first managerial job.  The Guardians’ interview process involved such names as Craig Counsell (who surprisingly became the Cubs’ new skipper) and Carlos Mendoza (now the Mets’ manager), but they opted for Vogt, who steps into the big chair after a single year of coaching as the Mariners’ bullpen/quality control coach.

Nobody expects Vogt to be Terry Francona, obviously, and it should be noted that Francona himself had losing seasons in each of his first four years as the Phillies’ manager from 1997-2000 before beginning his much more distinguished runs in Boston and Cleveland.  Those four years in Philadelphia marked Francona’s last losing seasons until an 80-82 mark with Cleveland in 2021, and then last season’s 76-86 mark.

As that record would indicate, the Guardians were a flawed team last season, largely due to a stagnant offense that finished at or near the bottom of the league in most major hitting categories.  Unfortunately for Vogt, he heads into 2024 at the helm of what will largely be the same mix of everyday players, as the front office did strangely little in the way of pursuing upgrades.

President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff are no strangers to small payrolls, of course, so it wasn’t as if a big spending spree was ever in the cards.  But, as per RosterResource’s projections, the Guardians are heading into 2024 with an estimated $96.5MM payroll — just a touch below their $97.75MM payroll from 2023.  Rather than significantly increase or decrease spending, the Guards mostly stood pat from a financial standpoint, perhaps immobilized by the status of their TV deal with the Diamond Sports Group.

It was almost exactly a year ago that DSG filed for bankruptcy, throwing into question the broadcasting contracts held between the corporation’s Bally Sports regional sports networks and 14 Major League teams.  The Guardians, Twins, Rangers, Reds, and Diamondbacks stood out within the group since DSG was paying those teams reduced rights fees for the 2023 season before a bankruptcy court ordered the restoration of those fees.  For Cleveland, Minnesota, and Texas, their TV contracts for 2024 weren’t settled until just this past February, with Diamond agreeing to continue airing games for each of the three teams on one-year deals.

Reports indicated that each club would be receiving at least 85% of what it had previously earned in its contracts with DSG, so the Guards’ $55MM figure from 2023 could now be reduced to $46.75MM for the coming year.  What happens beyond 2024 is anyone’s guess, as if DSG goes out of business entirely, the Guardians’ broadcasting and streaming rights could fall under the umbrella of Major League Baseball itself.

While the Guardians were far from the only team to halt spending in the wake of this still-unsettled broadcasting future, there were naturally a lot of different approaches taken amongst the many clubs who were associated with DSG.  Some of the affected teams, like the Royals and Reds, still spent in free agency.  The Twins turned to the trade market as their primary method of roster-building.  Cleveland didn’t really do much of anything.

There is some irony to the fact that a team starved for hitting made its biggest free agent investment in Austin Hedges, whose 52 wRC+ over the last nine seasons is the lowest of any hitter in baseball.  This isn’t to diminish Hedges’ status as an elite defensive catcher, and in a vacuum, it makes a lot of sense for the Guards to reunite with Hedges (who played in Cleveland from 2020-22) as a veteran backup and mentor for starting backstop Bo Naylor.  But the $4MM price tag for a backup catcher who offers so little at the plate seems rather steep for a club that seemingly had very little payroll room this winter.  The Guardians had also seemingly addressed the catching position at a lower cost by claiming Christian Bethancourt off waivers from the Rays in early November, but then pivoted to sign Hedges and trade Bethancourt to the Marlins on the same day.

Cleveland moved some money off the books by trading Cal Quantrill and his projected $6.6MM arbitration salary to the Rockies in November.  It was widely expected that Quantrill would be moved or simply just non-tendered after a rough 2023 campaign, due to both his escalating salary and the fact that the Guardians have a number of younger arms who stand out as better rotation candidates.

Some veteran depth was added to the pitching mix in the form of a low-cost deal with Ben Lively, and the Guardians’ list of minor league signings includes a familiar and beloved Cleveland name in Carlos Carrasco.  The righty is returning to Ohio after a three-year stint with the Mets that was mostly marred by injuries and under-performance, and the idea of Carrasco entering his age-37 season and chasing a revival with his old team is a fun Spring Training story to monitor.

Perhaps the biggest surprise surrounding the Guardians’ offseason is the fact that Shane Bieber is seemingly still going to be part of the roster.  Since Bieber is earning $13.125MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility, it was widely expected that he would be dealt before he reaches free agency, like so many pricier Cleveland players before him.  However, though such teams as the Cubs, Reds, Dodgers, Yankees, and Angels were linked to Bieber’s market at various times this winter, a deal has yet to emerge.

This isn’t to say that a trade could still be arranged between now and Opening Day, since any number of things (like, say, an injury for the Yankees’ ace) could change the equation.  Still, Bieber’s market to date has been complicated by other pitchers available either via trade or free agency, as well as the more obvious red flags stemming from the former Cy Young winner’s 2023 season.  Bieber was more good than front-of-the-rotation great last year, and he also missed a large chunk of time recovering from elbow inflammation.  If the offers weren’t to Antonetti’s liking, a deadline deal might be more plausible, if Bieber re-establishes his value with a strong first half.

For now, Bieber remains the most experienced member of a rotation that includes Triston McKenzie looking to bounce back from an injury-plagued season, and the impressive sophomore trio of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen.  Any of Carrasco, Lively, non-roster invitees Jaime Barria or Tyler Beede could be in the depth mix, as could in-house options like Xzavion Curry, Hunter Gaddis, Joey Cantillo, or any other arms from Cleveland’s nonstop pipeline of young pitching.

The Guardians will also be running back mostly the same bullpen, except with the notable addition of Scott Barlow.  The former Royals reliever was acquired from the Padres in a swap of right-handers for Enyel De Los Santos, and this trade ended up as one of Cleveland’s most financially aggressive move of the offseason.  Barlow and the team avoided arbitration on a $6.7MM deal, giving him the third-highest salary of any Guards player for 2024 (after Jose Ramirez and Bieber).

In a recent piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, Steve Adams described the Barlow trade as “a bizarre allocation of minimal resources….In De Los Santos, the Guardians traded a reliever with better bottom-line results (albeit in lower-leverage spots), comparable K-BB rates, about 17% the salary and three times as much club control as Barlow.”  I tend to agree with Steve’s analysis, though I’ll add that the deal makes a little more sense if viewed as a possible harbinger to an Emmanuel Clase trade.  The Guards were reportedly open to offers for their closer this winter, so it could be that the team wanted to have a pitcher like Barlow with past closing experience in the fold before deciding whether or not to move Clase elsewhere.  Of course, that deal never came together, and Clase is widely expected to open the season back in his familiar closing role.

Sticking with pitching, the Guardians felt Cody Morris was expendable enough to be dealt to the Yankees for an intriguing flier on a post-hype prospect.  Estevan Florial has only a .609 OPS over 134 Major League plate appearances, though those at-bats were spread out in sporadic fashion over the last four seasons.  New York never felt compelled to give Florial a longer look at the big league level, despite some past top-100 prospect pedigree, multiple injuries in the Yankees’ outfield, and Florial’s big numbers at Triple-A in 2022-23.

Needless to say, the Guardians could badly use an offensive boost in their outfield.  If Florial can have even a modest breakout to prove he belongs in the Show, he could immediately supplant either Myles Straw or Ramon Laureano for regular work on the grass.  As it stands, Florial’s left-handed bat makes him a natural platoon partner with Straw or Laureano, and Straw’s combination of superb defense and lackluster hitting makes him a better fit for fourth outfielder duty anyway.  Florial essentially replaces Oscar Gonzalez, who went from being the starting right fielder as a rookie in 2022 to being put on waivers (and claimed by the Yankees) this winter.

Corner infielder Deyvison De Los Santos could get a look as a bench piece due to his Rule 5 status, and the Guardians will otherwise determine their backup mix from a collection of in-house names.  The loser of the Brayan Rocchio/Gabriel Arias shortstop competition could start the season in the minors to amass more regular playing time, Tyler Freeman might stick in a super-utility role, and any of Will Brennan, Jhonkensy Noel, or Johnathan Rodriguez could be considered for backup outfield roles.

It can’t be ignored that Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, Robbie Grossman, or even an old friend like Kole Calhoun could beef up this outfield picture, but even modestly-priced signings seem to be beyond Cleveland’s price range.  In terms of longer-term outfield promise, top prospect Chase DeLauter is making noise in Spring Training and could be part of the big league roster at some point in 2024, if probably not too early in the season.

Likewise with the DH position, the Guardians seem unwilling to splurge on a big bat like J.D. Martinez, as the position looks to be ticketed for rookie Kyle Manzardo.  Acquired from the Rays last season in the Aaron Civale trade, Manzardo is a top-100 prospect with loads of hitting potential, even if he brings little in the way of speed or first base defense.  Manzardo will pair with Josh Naylor in the first base/DH mix, and if Manzardo can show that he can play even passable defense, it might increase the chances of Naylor being dealt.  Naylor is a free agent after the 2025 season and drew some trade buzz this offseason as teams were checking on when or if the Guardians might move another increasingly expensive player.

It’s hard to ever rule out the Guardians given their ability to generate pitching, and between the young hitting talent on the rise, Ramirez’s superstar production, and some of the other interesting bats on hand, the lineup could also be better than it looks on paper.  In an AL Central division that lacks a powerhouse contender, this mix might be enough to get the Guards back into contention if a few things break right.  (And hey, maybe their surprise win in the draft lottery is a sign that Lady Luck is on their side.)  Even accounting for the apparent payroll freeze, however, Cleveland’s lack of major tinkering was curious, and might be viewed in hindsight as a missed opportunity depending on how 2024 plays out.

Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals

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Raise your hand if you had the Royals being one of the top-five spenders in free agency on your offseason bingo card back in November. Kansas City is focused on improving in the here and now, and their offseason reflects that.

Major League Signings

2024 spend: $53MM
Total spend: $110.5MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Extensions

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Royals’ second season under general manager J.J. Picollo, who replaced longtime president of baseball operations Dayton Moore after his firing, took a markedly different tone than the first. Kansas City spent more money on one individual signing, right-hander Seth Lugo, than they had in the entire 2022-23 offseason. Lugo proved to be one of two notable additions to the rotation, joining righty Michael Wacha in what should be a far more competitive pitching staff than the Royals ran out in 2023.

Lugo and Wacha will largely replace outgoing franchise icon Zack Greinke and non-tendered righty Brad Keller, who combined for 36 starts last year (27 from Greinke, nine from Keller). They’ll join last year’s deadline prize Cole Ragans and returning right-hander Brady Singer in a Kansas City rotation that should be far, far more stable than the 2023 group. Last year, only four Royals — Greinke, Singer, Ragans and Jordan Lyles — even started more than nine games.

While Lugo and Wacha aren’t exactly aces, the Royals hope they’ve unearthed one in the 26-year-old Ragans, who starred for them following his acquisition in the Aroldis Chapman swap with Texas. Ragans’ 2.64 ERA, 31.1% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate and 45.5% grounder rate have the look of a top-end starter. Lugo thrived in a move to the rotation in San Diego last season, notching a 3.57 ERA in 146 1/3 frames. Former and once-again teammate Wacha delivered a second straight solid season in San Diego and joins up with Lugo again. If the Royals can get something closer to the 2022 version of Singer (as opposed to the 2023 version), the rotation could be a strength. Lyles will eat innings in the fifth spot, but in-house names like Daniel Lynch IV and Alec Marsh could eventually push him for that spot.

Lugo and Wacha weren’t the only starters the Royals acquired, but they’re the only ones who’ll pitch for Kansas City in 2024. The Royals bought low on injured Braves right-hander Kyle Wright, shipping change-of-scenery candidate Jackson Kowar to Atlanta in order to pick him up — knowing full well that shoulder surgery will cost Wright the upcoming season. He will spend the year on the 60-day IL, but he has two remaining seasons of club control beyond the 2024 campaign. Adding him at the cost of a now twice-traded former first-rounder, Kowar, is a nice bit of long-term business for a team that has been plagued in the past by a lack of pitching depth.

Kansas City’s bullpen additions might not have generated as much attention but represented an even broader-reaching overhaul of the staff. Free agents Will Smith and Chris Stratton bring closing and setup experience — to say nothing of a pair of 2023 World Series rings — to the 2024 Royals. They cost a combined $13MM in guarantees, with Stratton coming aboard on a two-year deal with a surprising player option (more on that in a bit).

Right-hander Nick Anderson was a buy-low addition who has been dominant at times but rarely healthy. Righty John Schreiber had a big 2022 in Boston and took a step back in 2023 thanks largely to a spike in walk rate. But Schreiber misses bats at above-average levels, keeps the ball on the ground well and hadn’t struggled with his command prior to the 2023 season. Anderson is controllable through 2025 and cost only cash. Schreiber has three years of control and cost the Royals right-hander David Sandlin, a 2022 eleventh-round pick who’s significantly improved his prospect status since being selected.

Royals relievers in 2023 ranked 29th in the big leagues in terms of ERA and were 25th or worse in FIP and SIERA. Only two teams saw their bullpens walk relievers at a higher rate, and Kansas City’s 22.8% strikeout rate from the ’pen was tied for 22nd in MLB. All of that includes a strong three months from the aforementioned Chapman in addition to contributions from Jose Cuas and Scott Barlow, both also moved at the deadline.

Generally speaking, it was a group that needed work, and the additions of Smith, Stratton, Anderson and Schreiber should go a long way toward helping the unit overall. The Royals will also hope that they struck gold on righty James McArthur, whom they acquired in a DFA trade with the Phillies last May. McArthur posted underwhelming numbers in both Philly and Kansas City … at least until a September call-up in which he fired off an incredible 16 1/3 innings of shutout relief with just five hits and no walks against 19 strikeouts. McArthur has also dominated in a small sample of 6 1/3 spring innings (one run) and is a clear name to watch for this team.

The additions on the position-player side of things were far more modest. Hunter Renfroe received a somewhat surprising two-year pact after a pedestrian showing with the Angels and a very rocky finish with the Reds. He’s a clear 20-homer bat who’ll add some needed punch to the K.C. lineup, but Renfroe’s once-elite defensive ratings and his power output have both dropped off recently. A move to Kauffman Stadium probably won’t help the latter, and his career .300 OBP (.297 in ’23) is a curious fit for a club that ranked 28th in the majors with a collective .303 OBP last season.

Adam Frazier joins Renfroe as something of a buy-low play on a veteran who’s seen better days. An All-Star with the Pirates, Frazier’s bat hasn’t been the same since being traded from Pittsburgh to San Diego at the 2021 trade deadline. He’s taken 1268 plate appearances with the Padres, Mariners and Orioles but mustered only a .244/.305/.345 slash in that time. Frazier’s $4.5MM guarantee with the Royals isn’t much by today’s standards, and his excellent bat-to-ball skills mesh with a Royals club that has tended to prioritize contact over power. Even during his rough stretch since that ’21 trade, Frazier has fanned at just a 12.9% clip. He won’t be the starter at second or in left field — that’ll be Michael Massey and MJ Melendez, respectively — but he gives the Royals some depth at both spots and a contact-oriented bat off the bench.

Speaking of the bench, that’s been overhauled as well. Gone are Samad Taylor, Edward Olivares and Matt Duffy, among others. Frazier will join superutility man Garrett Hampson as a free-agent pickup for the bench. Hampson posted roughly average offensive numbers in Miami last season — well ahead of his previously middling career marks — and can play just about anywhere on the field. He’s not an elite defender at any one spot and is a candidate to regress with the bat (.379 BABIP, 26.6% strikeout rate), but the Royals love speed and Hampson clocked into the 98th percentile of MLB players in sprint speed last year, per Statcast.

Kansas City also picked up Austin Nola on a cheap one-year deal late in the offseason after the Padres cut him loose. He has a minor league option remaining and could thus be ticketed for Triple-A, but Nola has experience playing multiple infield positions in addition to catcher and the Royals have considered carrying him along with both Salvador Perez and Freddy Fermin on the roster. Perez is better suited as a DH at this point but still figures to catch his share of games. If the Royals choose to carry all three, Nola gives them a viable backup on days they want to DH Perez and start the defensively superior Fermin behind the dish. If they don’t, he’ll give them an experienced backup option in Omaha.

The biggest piece of business for the Royals, however, was their franchise-record-shattering extension for shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. The $288.777MM deal more than tripled Perez’s $82MM pact, which had stood as the previous high-water mark for the franchise. Witt improved across the board as a sophomore in his age-23 season, with gains in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, walk rate, strikeout rate, power output, defensive grades, exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. He finished the season one steal shy of the exceptionally rare 30-homer, 50-stolen base campaign.

Royals fans have legitimate cause to celebrate Witt’s extension, though it’s perhaps not the career-long commitment to the franchise most would believe at first glance. The opt-out provision after the contract’s seventh season has a strong chance to be exercised, at least if the two parties don’t revisit his contract status closer to that decision point. After the 2030 season, Witt will be guaranteed (ahem) “just” four years and an additional $140MM as he enters his age-31 season. It’d be an easy call for a player with his ability to trigger that opt out even in 2024, and salaries in MLB will presumably only have moved forward further by that point. The two parties could always look to renegotiate a longer pact at that point — one that decisively keeps Witt in Kansas City for his entire career.

Even if they don’t do so and Witt eventually takes the opt-out route, there’s still plenty to be happy about for the Royals. It’s true that the opt-out and enormous guarantee create more injury downside than legitimate contractual upside for the Royals, but that was the cost of buying out at least three prime-aged free-agent seasons on a 23-year-old superstar who looks likely to be a bona fide MVP candidate multiple times over the seven seasons in which the Royals have complete control over him.

Opt-outs were a common theme for the Royals this winter, not only in their extension with Witt but in nearly every free agent contract they doled out. Lugo can opt out after the 2025 season. Each of Wacha, Renfroe and even Stratton gains the ability to opt out after the upcoming season. Not long ago, opt-out clauses were generally reserved for the game’s elite free agents, but the Royals joined a growing number of smaller and mid-market teams that have used them as leverage to lure second- or even third-tier free agents. Stratton securing a 2025 player option as a 33-year-old reliever who averages just over 93 mph on his heater and has narrowly kept his ERA under 4.00 over the past four seasons was particularly surprising.

For the Royals, the opt-out provisions may have been something of a necessary evil, though. Free agents tend to want to sign in winning situations, and the team lost a whopping 106 games during the 2023 campaign. Even when offering multi-year deals, the Royals’ recent run of futility in the AL Central — one of baseball’s weakest divisions — is a tough sell to free agents who have a decent market. Offering the leverage of a competitive year-one salary with the allure of a return to the market next winter if things go well is a strong sweetener — one at which many clubs would likely balk.

There’s real downside to the gambit. If Wacha were to sustain a major injury or regress to his 2019-21 form, for instance, a team with the Royals’ typically modest payroll would be on the hook for a significant sum. The Padres gave Wacha a series of opt-outs when signing him last offseason, but that was effectively a mechanism to duck the luxury tax. Wacha was guaranteed $26MM on his “four-year” deal but was never likely to trigger a series of $6.5MM player options. In essence, the player options just tamped down the contract’s AAV because they’re considered guaranteed money.

The Royals’ series of opt-outs is far different; they’re guaranteeing market-rate salaries and pairing that with immediate opportunities to return to the market (or, in Lugo’s case, an opportunity two years down the line). If any of Wacha, Stratton or Renfroe exercise that player option, it’ll be because the 2024 results weren’t there, and that’ll be a notable and likely unwanted salary on the books for the 2025 Royals.

It’s a gamble the Royals probably prefer not to make but one that might have been necessary to bring about this type of change in a single offseason. And, make no mistake about it, this is an unequivocally improved and deepened Royals roster. The question is whether they’ve done enough to earnestly contend. A full season of Ragans could go a long way toward improving the outlook, if he can sustain his post-trade breakout. Ditto McArthur, though his success was in an even smaller sample. The rest of the Royals’ pickups were largely focused on raising the floor, but few come with star-caliber upside.

Any such improvements will need to come internally. A fully healthy, breakout season from first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino seems plausible. Nelson Velazquez won’t keep homering at the pace he did in ’23 (14 homers in 147 plate appearances), but he makes gobs of hard contact and looked like a potential middle-of-the-order bat after coming over from the Cubs. The Royals will need similar strides from Melendez, Massey and/or first baseman/DH Nick Pratto if they’re to gain the necessary ground to compete for a postseason berth. They finished 31 games back of the Twins and 33 games out of a Wild Card spot in 2023, and the AL Central has only seen the Tigers get better.

There’s no doubt the Royals are better, but even with so many additions, they could face an uphill battle as they look for not only their first trip to the playoffs since winning the 2015 World Series — but their first winning season since that fateful year.

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