Looking For A Match In A Dylan Cease Trade
For a second straight offseason, Dylan Cease enters spring training as his team’s staff ace … and also as perhaps the most prominent trade candidate in the sport. The Padres, strapped for cash all winter, have made next to no additions to a roster that needs help in left field, at designated hitter and in the final few spots of the rotation. Trading Cease would only exacerbate their rotation need, but he’s the type of arm who could return an immediate fill-in (albeit one with a lower and less established ceiling) in addition to young prospects.
The Padres have entertained offers on the majority of their impending free agents under similar lines of thinking. Cease, Michael King, Luis Arraez and Robert Suarez (opt-out) have all seen their names pop up on the rumor circuit this winter. Cease probably has the most trade value of them all, given his track record, durability, reasonable $13.75MM salary, high-octane arsenal and the potential for an acquiring club to not only add a Game 1 or Game 2 playoff starter to its roster but also to potentially recoup a draft pick in 2026 if/when Cease rejects a qualifying offer in November.
A Cease trade at this juncture would in many ways run parallel to last offseason’s trade of Juan Soto, whom the Padres shipped out for immediate MLB help (King, Kyle Higashioka) and slate of MLB-ready (or close to it) arms: Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito and top prospect Drew Thorpe. The Padres moved Thorpe before the season even began, using him as the headline prospect to acquire Cease in the first place. Now, they could conceivably trade Cease for a lower-ceiling/less-established rotation arm and some additional pitching depth and/or a young outfielder.
Exact parallels for a Cease swap are hard to come by, though Anthony Franco recently took a look at some general frameworks that the Padres could seek in a piece for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. Corbin Burnes, who went from the Brewers to the Orioles in exchange for MLB-ready help in the infield (Joey Ortiz) and on the pitching staff (DL Hall) — plus a competitive balance draft pick — is the clearest comparable in recent memory. Burnes was more consistent but also a bit more expensive ($15.637MM to Cease’s $13.75MM).
It’s feasible to think the Padres could command a big league-ready arm and outfielder to fill two holes on their roster while simultaneously freeing up some cash to backfill some of the innings lost in a Cease trade. Any deal shipping him out will bring back a lesser arm(s), and whatever savings the Padres secure could be used to further address the back of the rotation. San Diego probably isn’t going to give up the picks necessary to sign Nick Pivetta, but the free-agent market still has Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Cal Quantrill, Spencer Turnbull, Ross Stripling and Alex Wood, among others.
Alternatively, any money saved via trading Cease could be put toward taking on a chunk of a pricey starter’s contract. Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery and Steven Matz are all buy-low candidates but all could probably be had with the current team picking up some of the bill.
Let’s take a look at some of the best fits for Cease based on a variety of factors including team need, payroll availability, luxury tax status and what type of young/inexpensive pitching and outfield help said theoretical trade partners could offer…
Orioles: The Orioles have made several additions to the rotation this winter, but they’re generally lacking ceiling. Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano would’ve been a higher-end pair to sign back in 2019 than in 2025. They could both still provide some average or even slightly better-than-average innings in bulk, but it’d be a surprise if either looked like a clear playoff-caliber starter at season’s end. Baltimore’s current rotation includes that pair, Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer. It’s a solid enough quintet on paper, and they could get late-season help from Kyle Bradish and/or Tyler Wells as that pair mends from a UCL surgeries performed last June.
Baltimore hasn’t replaced Burnes, who signed a six-year deal in Arizona, with an arm of comparable quality. Cease would be just that. Between Kremer, Cade Povich, Trevor Rogers and Chayce McDermott, the O’s have a collection of inexpensive arms who could step into the back half of San Diego’s rotation. The prize for the Padres in a trade with Baltimore would probably be the bat acquired. The Orioles aren’t giving up Coby Mayo or Jackson Holliday for one year of a starter, but Heston Kjerstad once again looks like he’s a man without a clear path to playing time. The O’s could’ve penciled him in to replace Anthony Santander, but they instead signed Tyler O’Neill. Kjerstad turns 26 this month, has nearly a year of MLB service and hasn’t been given a full-time look. The O’s have touted outfielders like Enrique Bradfield Jr. and Dylan Beavers on the rise behind him, plus Colton Cowser already in the majors.
Red Sox: Boston hasn’t made the big free-agent splash that many expected, but it’s hard to say that any team that acquired Garrett Crochet hasn’t invested in bolstering the rotation. Crochet joins Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, free agent signee Walker Buehler and (eventually) a returning Lucas Giolito in a deep and talented Red Sox rotation mix. You could argue the Sox don’t need to further augment the group, but Buehler is a rebound candidate and Giolito could be on some kind of set workload. Even if that’s not the case, a September (and hopefully for Craig Breslow & Co., October) rotation scene including Crochet, Cease, Giolito, Houck and Buehler could be overpowering.
Crawford wilted considerably down the stretch, but he has four years of control remaining and is earning just $2.75MM this season. Depth arms like Quinn Priester, Richard Fitts and Cooper Criswell could all hold appeal to the Padres as well. None of that group has reached arbitration. Criswell is controlled for five more years. Priester and Fitts can be controlled for six. The Sox aren’t giving up Jarren Duran or Ceddanne Rafaela for a year of Cease, but would they consider selling high on Wilyer Abreu? They could turn to an outfield stopgap like Randal Grichuk or Mark Canha to give them a right-handed bat while leaving the door open for uber prospect Roman Anthony to seize a regular job sooner than later.
Twins: The Twins’ interest in Cease is a head-scratcher at first glance, if only because Minnesota is in a similar payroll crunch to the Padres. However, as the offseason has gone on, it’s been reported that Minnesota might not actually need to cut payroll and might even have a couple million to spend. The Twins could shed some money in other trades, perhaps shipping out Chris Paddack ($7.5MM), some of Christian Vazquez‘s contract (one year, $10MM remaining) and/or utilityman Willi Castro ($6.4MM). A trade with the Padres could also send a bit of money to San Diego, depending on which pitcher(s) and/or outfielders are included.
The Twins have Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson and Paddack in the rotation at present, with top prospects David Festa and Zebby Matthews already having made their major league debuts. Other arms like Andrew Morris and Travis Adams aren’t terribly far from getting a look. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes recently suggested that the Padres would probably want Ryan or Ober to headline a deal. Ryan seems like a bridge too far for the Twins. Ober is earning $3.35MM this season and has three years of club control remaining. Any of Woods Richardson, Festa and/or Matthews is pre-arbitration. The Twins have young outfielders like Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner to pitch. Larnach is making $2.1MM. Trading one of Larnach or Wallner could open a clearer path for top prospects Emmanuel Rodriguez or Luke Keaschall to step into the big leagues. Keaschall has played more infield, but the Twins’ infield is already quite crowded, so his eventual home could be in the outfield or in a multi-position role.
Braves: With Spencer Strider on the mend from UCL surgery and expected back sometime in May, the Braves don’t necessarily have a glaring rotation need. Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach will create a formidable top four — health permitting. Righties Ian Anderson, Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep are in the mix for starts while Strider is out and give Atlanta ample depth for the fifth spot in the rotation should each of the top four be healthy early in the summer. Drue Hackenberg, a 2023 second-rounder, climbed three minor league levels and posted sharp results across the board in 2024, providing even more depth.
That glut of arms for what ostensibly appears to be one final rotation spot gives Atlanta plenty of options on the trade market. If the Padres want to acquire multiple lower-end but MLB-ready arms in exchange for Cease, the Braves are a potentially prime trade partner. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has implied that any rotation addition would need to be a clear upgrade over Anderson and Holmes, who are out of minor league options and thus virtual locks to make the roster. Cease checks that box emphatically. And with Jurickson Profar now in the outfield, Atlanta could at least consider the possibility of including Jarred Kelenic in a deal as well. Kelenic’s value is way down after a middling 2024 season, but he has four seasons of club control remaining and — once Ronald Acuña Jr. is healthy — minimal path to everyday at-bats on a roster with Profar, Acuña and Michael Harris II.
Cubs: As with the Braves, the Cubs have a deep collection of arms competing for what looks to be one rotation spot. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd are all rotation locks. Candidates for the fifth spot include Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown — with top prospect Cade Horton on the rise as well. Assad is probably the favorite thanks to a 3.40 ERA through his first 294 big league frames, but below-average command and a subpar strikeout rate lead to less-appealing marks from alternative metrics like FIP (4.49) and SIERA (4.66). The Cubs also signed veteran Colin Rea on a one-year deal, giving them a seasoned No. 5 option or swingman in the bullpen.
On top of the plethora of young arms, the Cubs have two top-100 outfield prospects in Owen Caissie (an original Padres draftee who went to the Cubs in the Yu Darvish trade) and Kevin Alcantara. Both are essentially MLB-ready. Alcantara has already debuted. Chicago has Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker in the outfield with Seiya Suzuki at designated hitter. There’s no path to 2025 playing time for Caissie or Alcantara if the current outfield is healthy. Plus, Happ and Suzuki are signed through 2026 while Crow-Armstrong is controlled all the way through 2030. Dealing from their stock of outfield talent to further cement themselves as the NL Central favorite and add a clear playoff starter makes good sense. The Cubs already made a big one-year bet on Tucker. That ought to embolden them to further push all-in on 2025. At the very least, they could expect 2026 draft compensation for Tucker and Cease, lessening the sting of some of the prospects they surrender.
Mets: President of baseball operations David Stearns doesn’t seem to want to commit long-term to starting pitchers, making Cease a natural target. He’d immediately ascend to the top of the rotation in Queens, giving the Mets the clear Game 1 type of starter they presently lack. Cease, Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea would make a nice top three, with Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes, David Peterson and Paul Blackburn as options to round out the staff … unless, of course, Peterson is one of the names headed back to the Padres in a theoretical trade package. Like Cease and Michael King last year, he has two seasons of club control remaining. He’d give the Friars an experienced arm to take up some of Cease’s innings, and the Mets have plenty of additional names to offer on top of that.
Tylor Megill doesn’t look to have a clear spot on the roster, barring injuries. He looks like more of a depth piece but could add some innings to the San Diego rotation. Top pitching prospect Brandon Sproat is the type of near-MLB arm who could serve as a headliner. The Mets also have appealing young hitters like Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña. All three are infielders, but they’ve all at least tinkered in the outfield as well. All three have the athleticism to handle left field. Mauricio is recovering from an ACL tear and might not be ready for Opening Day, while Acuña struggled in the minors last year and could need more seasoning. Regardless, they could be early-season options, while someone like Baty might be an option to step right into left field if the Padres feel a spring training of work there could ready him for a full-time look in the majors.
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There are, of course, other clubs that have rotation needs and would surely inquire. The Angels seem like an obvious fit but don’t necessarily have the collection of young arms and/or outfielders that the above teams possess. Jo Adell already has three years of MLB service and has yet to establish himself. Taylor Ward is only controlled through 2026 and is making nearly $8MM. The Angels need controllable young arms just as badly as the Padres.
The Blue Jays make some sense, as a team aggressively pursuing 2025 upgrades, but they’ve made those upgrades without sacrificing much in the way of prospects — perhaps in a nod to a potential Plan B if this year’s run at contention doesn’t pan out.
The Rangers, Brewers and Guardians could all make varying degrees of sense, but all three are running up against payroll issues at this point. Texas could try to send Jon Gray and/or Leody Taveras back to San Diego, but they’d need to include significant prospects to offset that pair’s lack of long-term value. The Brewers haven’t signed a free agent to a fully guaranteed deal and seemingly have no money to spend. The Guards haven’t rented a veteran starter like this at any point in recent memory and may be tapped out after re-signing Shane Bieber, Austin Hedges and Carlos Santana and signing Paul Sewald. Perhaps the Tigers could try to package some younger arms (e.g. Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Keider Montero, Ty Madden) and a young hitter like Justyn-Henry Malloy, but their recent addition of Jack Flaherty seems like their final move in the rotation.
Broadly, it’s pretty easy to make a case for Cease on quite a few teams. He’s a Cy Young-caliber arm at his best and is being paid less than the collection of aging veteran arms who signed one-year deals worth $15-16MM this winter (Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Charlie Morton, Alex Cobb). The best fits, at least from our vantage point, appear to reside in Baltimore, Boston, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Chicago (Cubs) and New York (Mets), however.
Poll: Who’s Winning The Offseason In The NL Central?
The calendar has flipped to February and the start of Spring Training is just a matter of days away. While some notable free agents (including nine of MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents for the 2024-25 offseason) remain unsigned, most clubs have already done the heavy lifting in terms of preparing their roster for the 2025 season. In the coming days, we’ll be taking a look around the league at which clubs have had the strongest offseason to this point. After the Mets decisively won yesterday’s poll on the AL East, the focus now shifts to the NL Central.
It was another down season for the Midwest’s NL teams, as they sent just one club to the postseason and were not represented in the NLDS for the third consecutive year. Three of the division’s teams haven’t made it to the postseason at all in a 162-game season this decade, and the pressure is on for those clubs to start winning again while the two that have found more recent success try to keep their windows open. Which team has done the most to set themselves up for success this winter? Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.
Milwaukee Brewers
As is typical for Milwaukee, this offseason has seemingly been about balancing the club’s present against their future. The loss of star shortstop Willy Adames was an expected but nonetheless tough blow for the Brewers, and it spurred them to complete their lone major move of the offseason back in December. With a hole on the infield after losing Adames, Milwaukee traded longtime relief ace Devin Williams to the Yankees ahead of his final year of team control. In return, they added big league ready infielder Caleb Durbin as well as southpaw Nestor Cortes.
Cortes, also in his final year of team control, appears poised to join an impressive prospective playoff rotation in Milwaukee alongside Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff. Durbin, meanwhile, will turn 25 later this month and has yet to make his big league debut but hit quite well both at Triple-A and in the Arizona Fall League. He could help solidify the club’s infield situation as soon as Opening Day. Outside of those additions, however, the Brewers have been extremely quiet: one-year pacts with depth arms Grant Wolfram and Elvin Rodriguez are the only two major league free agent signings they’ve made this winter.
St. Louis Cardinals
There isn’t much to say about the Cardinals’ offseason, as the club’s focus has been entirely consumed by their as-of-yet unsuccessful attempts to move on from veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado. That’s led the club to make zero big league free agent signings and trade for zero established MLB players, meaning the only roster changes of note to this point in the winter for St. Louis have been the losses of free agents like Paul Goldschmidt and Andrew Kittredge. Off the field, the biggest move of the Cardinals’ offseason to this point has been to announce the day the 2024 campaign ended that Chaim Bloom will take over for John Mozeliak as president of baseball operations following the 2025 season.
Chicago Cubs
It’s been a busy offseason for the Cubs. Most notably, they swung perhaps the biggest trade of the offseason when they acquired star outfielder Kyle Tucker from the Astros, though it cost them All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes and young starter Hayden Wesneski from their big league roster in order to do so and they subsequently had to deal Cody Bellinger to the Yankees to make room for Tucker in the lineup. Paredes has not been replaced in free agency or via trade to this point, with that hole seemingly set to be addressed internally by top prospect Matt Shaw. A pair of solid bench moves round out the club’s activity on the positional side. Carson Kelly should help to improve things at catcher and the addition of Jon Berti could help make up for the loss of production on the bench created by the decision to non-tender Mike Tauchman.
The biggest reported goal of the Cubs’ offseason was to upgrade the pitching staff, but those additions have been far more modest as compared to Tucker. It’s not as flashy as the club’s reported interest in players like Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, and Tanner Scott may have suggested, but Matthew Boyd figures to be an upgrade over Kyle Hendricks in the rotation and Ryan Pressly should solidify things in the ninth inning after the club acquired him in a separate trade with Houston. Beyond those two more significant names, the club has added depth in the form of swing men Colin Rea and Cody Poteet as well as southpaw Caleb Thielbar.
Cincinnati Reds
Following a mixed bag of a 2024 season where Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene established themselves as star-caliber players but the rest of the roster largely struggled with injuries and/or ineffectiveness, the Reds have been quite busy in hopes of turning things around for 2025. They kicked off the winter by adding Terry Francona as their new manager, and traded Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer to land Brady Singer from the Royals not long afterwards. They also retained Nick Martinez (who accepted their Qualifying Offer) and brought back veteran lefty Wade Miley on a non-guaranteed deal to further deepen the rotation.
The only guaranteed free agent signing the club has made was signing non-tendered outfielder Austin Hays to a one-year deal, but Hays is joined by a number of trade acquisitions even beyond Singer. The Reds acquired Jose Trevino from the Yankees in order to pair with Tyler Stephenson behind the plate, and Gavin Lux was brought in to help replace India’s production in the lineup. Rounding out the club’s notable trade acquisitions this winter is southpaw Taylor Rogers, who comes over from the Giants to join Alexis Diaz and Emilio Pagan at the back of Cincinnati’s bullpen.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates’ biggest move of the offseason was its first one of significance, as the club traded right-hander Luis Ortiz to the Guardians alongside a pair of prospects in order to land infielder Spencer Horwitz, who figures to serve as the club’s everyday first baseman this year. In addition to adding Horwitz, the Pirates have retooled their bullpen following the departure of Aroldis Chapman in free agency by signing southpaws Tim Mayza and Caleb Ferguson while also working out minor trades for Chase Shugart and Brett de Geus. Reports have indicated that Ferguson will stretch out during Spring Training and could be a candidate to start, but the club has otherwise not added to a rotation that remains a strength even after losing Ortiz.
On the positional side of things, Horwitz is joined by the additions of Adam Frazier in free agency and Enmanuel Valdez via trade. Both Frazier and Valdez figure to help shore up second base for the club while adding some left-handed options to the club’s predominantly right-handed bench mix. Veteran and longtime franchise face Andrew McCutchen also re-upped with the Pirates on his third consecutive one-year deal as he plays out the twilight of his career as a veteran leader on a young Pirates team. For all the club’s additions this winter, however, right field remains a major question mark after the club non-tendered Bryan De La Cruz without replacing him to this point in the winter.
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The 2024-25 offseason has been one defined almost entirely by major trades for the NL Central’s five clubs, with four of the five clubs having worked out at least one major swap and the fifth still hard at work attempting to do the same. The Cubs, Pirates, and Reds have all supplemented those trades with notable but relatively modest free agent signings as they attempt to claw their way back into playoff contention, and Cincinnati also added a likely future Hall of Famer to the dugout in the manager’s chair to help guide their young ballclub. The Brewers and Cardinals have been quieter by comparison, with Milwaukee largely standing pat outside of the Williams trade while the Cardinals have been paralyzed by their efforts to trade Arenado but have opened up playing time for a number of notable young players like Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera.
Of the five NL Central clubs, which one has had the strongest offseason so far? Have your say in the poll below:
Which NL Central Team Has Had The Best Offseason So Far?
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Chicago Cubs 57% (6,085)
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Cincinnati Reds 25% (2,707)
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Milwaukee Brewers 10% (1,024)
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Pittsburgh Pirates 5% (487)
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St. Louis Cardinals 4% (411)
Total votes: 10,714
Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins
Most of the clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, which means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move these days. Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, however. The 60-day injured list goes away five days after the World Series but comes back when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.
Per R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports, most clubs have a report date of February 12th or 13th. The Cubs and Dodgers are a bit earlier than most, on the 9th and 11th, respectively. That’s due to the fact that those clubs are heading to Tokyo, with exhibition games in mid-March, followed by regular season games against each other on March 18th and 19th. All the other teams have Opening Day scheduled for March 27th.
It’s worth pointing out that the 60 days don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. A team also must have a full 40-man roster in order to move a player to the 60-day IL.
There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, as well as Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Randal Grichuk, Kenley Jansen, Harrison Bader, Lance Lynn, Jose Quintana and many more. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together in the next week or so. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment.
Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon.
Angels: Robert Stephenson
Stephenson underwent a hybrid Tommy John surgery with internal brace in late April. Given the 14-plus months required to recovery from such a procedure, he’s not likely to be ready in the early parts of the 2025 season.
Astros: Cristian Javier, J.P. France, Bennett Sousa
Javier underwent Tommy John surgery in June and is targeting a return in the second half of 2025. France is recovering from shoulder surgery and hoping to return in July. Sousa’s timeline is less clear but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in April. Other possibilities include Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., who are expected to start the season on the IL but returning in April or May still seems possible.
Athletics: Luis Medina, Ken Waldichuk
Medina underwent Tommy John surgery in August and Waldichuk in May. Medina might miss the entire season while Waldichuk is likely to miss a few months at least.
Blue Jays: Angel Bastardo, Alek Manoah
The Jays grabbed Bastardo from the Red Sox in the Rule 5 draft in December, even though he had Tommy John surgery in June. Manoah also had Tommy John around that time and is hoping to be back by August.
Braves: Joe Jiménez
Jimenez had knee surgery in November with a timeline of eight to twelve months, so he might miss the entire season. Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. are also possibilities, though those will be more borderline. Strider had internal brace surgery in April, so returning in May is somewhat possible. Acuña is recovering from a torn ACL last year and it’s possible he’ll miss the first month or so of the season. Given how important both of those players are, Atlanta probably won’t put them on the 60-day IL unless it’s 100% certain that they can’t come back in the first 60 days of the season.
Brewers: Robert Gasser
Gasser had Tommy John surgery in June and will be looking at a late 2025 return even in a best-case scenario.
Diamondbacks: Kyle Nelson
Nelson’s timeline is unclear, but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in May and missed the remainder of the 2024 season.
Dodgers: Gavin Stone, Brusdar Graterol, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, Emmet Sheehan
Stone underwent shoulder surgery in October that will cause him to miss the entire year. Graterol also underwent shoulder surgery and isn’t expected back until the second half of 2025. Each of Ryan, Hurt and Sheehan required Tommy John surgery in 2024: Ryan in August, Hurt in July and Sheehan in May.
Guardians: Sam Hentges, David Fry, Shane Bieber, Trevor Stephan
Hentges required shoulder surgery in September, with an expected recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months. Fry underwent UCL surgery in November with a more fluid timeline. He won’t be able to throw at all in 2025 but could be cleared for designated hitter action six to eight months from that surgery. Bieber is perhaps a borderline case, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Given his importance, the Guards may not transfer him to the 60-day IL until it’s assured that he won’t be back in the first 60 days of the season. Stephan underwent Tommy John surgery in March and perhaps has a chance to avoid the 60-day IL, depending on his progression.
Mariners: Matt Brash, Jackson Kowar
Brash underwent Tommy John surgery in May. Given the typical 14-month recovery timeline from that procedure, he would be looking at a midsummer return. However, it was reported in November that he’s ahead of schedule and could be back by the end of April. That’s an optimistic timeline but the Mariners will probably hold off moving him to the 60-day IL until the door is closed to an early return. Kowar underwent Tommy John in March, so an early return in 2025 is possible for him, depending on how his recovery is going.
Marlins: Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez
Garrett just underwent UCL surgery last month and is going to miss the entire 2025 season. Pérez underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and will miss at least part of the beginning of the 2025 campaign.
Mets: Christian Scott
Scott required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in September and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.
Nationals: Josiah Gray, Mason Thompson
Gray required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in July, meaning he’ll miss most or perhaps all of the 2025 season. Thompson required Tommy John surgery in March, so he has a better chance to make an early-season return if his recovery is going well.
Orioles: Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells
Bradish and Wells each required UCL surgery in June, so they’re both slated to miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.
Padres: Joe Musgrove
Musgrove had Tommy John surgery in October and will therefore miss the entire 2025 season. However, the Padres only have 36 guys on their 40-man roster at the moment, so they’ll need to fill those spots before moving Musgrove to the 60-day IL.
Pirates: Dauri Moreta
Moreta required UCL surgery in March, so an early-season return is possible if his rehab is going well, though he could end up on the 60-day if the club goes easy with his ramp-up or he suffers any kind of setback.
Rangers: Josh Sborz
Sborz underwent shoulder surgery in November and is expected to miss the first two to three months of the upcoming season.
Rays: Nate Lavender, Ha-Seong Kim
The Rays took Lavender from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft, even though he had Tommy John in May and will miss the start of the season. Kim’s status is more up in the air after he had shoulder surgery in October. Various reports have suggested he could return anywhere from April to July. The Rays made a sizable investment in Kim, their largest ever for a position player, so they probably won’t shelve him until they get more clarity on his status.
Red Sox: Patrick Sandoval, Garrett Whitlock, Chris Murphy
Sandoval had internal brace surgery in June of last year and should miss the first half of the season. Whitlock had the same surgery in May, so he could have a bit of a better chance to return in the first 60 days of the season. Murphy underwent a fully Tommy John surgery in April and will certainly miss the beginning of the upcoming season. Another possibility is Lucas Giolito, who had internal brace surgery in March, though he expects to be ready by Opening Day.
Reds: Julian Aguiar, Brandon Williamson
Aguiar underwent Tommy John surgery in October and Williamson in September, so both are likely slated to miss the entire 2025 season.
Tigers: Sawyer Gipson-Long
Gipson-Long underwent internal brace surgery in April. On top of that, he underwent left hip labral repair surgery in July, with the club hoping to address both issues at the same time. It seems likely that he’ll miss some of the early 2025 schedule, but his IL placement will depend on how he’s been progressing.
White Sox: Jesse Scholtens
Scholtens underwent Tommy John surgery in early March. Whether he goes on the 60-day IL or not will depend on how he’s progressed since then and when the White Sox expect him back.
Yankees: Jonathan Loáisiga
Loáisiga underwent internal brace surgery in April, so he could potentially be back on the mound early in the 2025 season. It was reported in December that the Yankees are expecting him to be in the bullpen by late April or early May, so he’ll only end up on the 60-day IL if he suffers a bit of a setback.
The Brewers’ Post-Adames Infield Options
For the first time in three and a half years, the Brewers enter camp with a question at shortstop. Milwaukee was never going to make a realistic push to retain Willy Adames when he hit the open market. They’ll replace Adames internally, though doing so will open a camp battle at one of second or third base.
Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz manned those respective positions in 2024. They were each highly-regarded prospects whom scouts felt would stick at shortstop. They only moved off the position in deference to Adames. They each thrived at an easier spot on the defensive spectrum. Turang tied for seventh among second basemen with six Outs Above Average, according to Statcast. Defensive Runs Saved graded him at a much favorable +22 runs, earning him both the Gold Glove and Platinum Glove at the position. Ortiz’s third base work was just as highly-regarded. He tied with Matt Chapman for the league lead at the position with 11 Outs Above Average; DRS ranked him fifth with a +8 mark.
If the Brewers have a preference for one of those players at shortstop, they haven’t tipped their hand publicly. Turang played exclusively second base last season but started 10 games at shortstop in 2023. Ortiz started one game there last year, the only time Adames was not penciled into the lineup. (That came the day after Milwaukee clinched the NL Central.) Either player should be able to move back to their initial position, where there’s a good chance they’d still a plus defender.
In either case, the trickle-down impact of Adames’ departure will be felt somewhere other than shortstop. If Turang moves to the left side of the infield, the Brewers will need someone else to step up at second base. That’d be true of the hot corner if Ortiz kicks over. Someone will be in line for an uptick in at-bats. While the Brewers could theoretically still address this via free agency, the remaining infielders beyond Alex Bregman (e.g. Jose Iglesias, Paul DeJong, Yoán Moncada, Enrique Hernández) aren’t especially exciting.
Let’s run through the internal options who could earn themselves regular playing time once camp gets underway this month.
The most intriguing move would be to bring Frelick into the infield. Last winter, Milwaukee considered moving the speedy outfielder to either second or third base. That was in recognition of their somewhat crowded outfield depth chart and the risk of relying on a then-unproven Ortiz at third base. Ortiz’s excellent year meant Milwaukee wouldn’t have had many infield at-bats to offer Frelick even if they wanted to commit to him at the position.
In the end, Frelick didn’t start a single game in the infield. He played four innings at third base over two late-game substitutions. Frelick played mostly right field, where he continued to demonstrate elite range. He won his first career Gold Glove while receiving plus grades from Statcast (7 Outs Above Average) and DRS (+16). Frelick has the arm for third base, but his speed would be less impactful on the infield. Skipper Pat Murphy said at the beginning of the offseason that the Brewers were open to the possibility of continuing the third base experiment. Is it worthwhile to cut his innings in right field to give him regular infield run?
The 24-year-old Black probably has the highest offensive upside of anyone in this competition. He earned some Top 100 prospect buzz going into last season. That came on the heels of a huge .284/.417/.513 showing between Double-A Biloxi and Triple-A Nashville in 2023. Black didn’t quite replicate those numbers over what was closer to a full season with Nashville. The lefty hitter posted a .258/.375/.429 slash with 14 homers across 462 plate appearances at the top minor league level. He struggled in his first MLB cameo, hitting .204 with only two extra-base hits (both doubles) in 18 games.
While Black’s stock is down slightly from where it stood 12 months ago, he still has clear offensive promise. He walked at an excellent 13.2% clip while keeping his strikeouts to a modest 18.8% rate in Triple-A. Baseball America ranked him the #5 prospect in the Milwaukee system this offseason, writing that he still possesses the best strike zone discipline of any of the organization’s prospects.
Black’s minor league exit velocities were middling, though, raising some questions about how much power he’ll bring to the table. The biggest issue is where he’ll land defensively. BA grades him as a below-average defender with a subpar arm. That makes him a tough fit at the hot corner. The Brewers seem to agree, as he only played 79 innings at third base in Triple-A last season after logging more than 800 innings there in 2023. He hasn’t played second base since 2022. Milwaukee seems to prefer Black at first base, but they’d need to offload the Rhys Hoskins contract to play him there regularly. He could bounce around the infield while seeing action at designated hitter, but he’s not a typical player for a Milwaukee team that strongly values infield defense.
The Brewers landed Durbin alongside Nestor Cortes in this offseason’s Devin Williams trade. New York had added the 24-year-old (25 this month) to their 40-man roster to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. The 5’6″ infielder had a breakout season between three minor league affiliates. Durbin hit .275/.388/.451 with more walks (13.1%) than strikeouts (9.9%). He stole 31 bases while bouncing between second base, third base and shortstop. He spent more than half the season in Triple-A, where he hit .287/.396/.471 across 375 plate appearances.
Before the trade, Yankees manager Aaron Boone had at least paid lip service to the idea of Durbin being in the mix for their starting second base job. He could be in a similar position in Milwaukee. The bottom line results in Triple-A certainly suggest he’s ready for an MLB look. Still, most scouting reports feel Durbin projects as a slap-hitting utilityman rather than a true regular. Baseball America ranks him 23rd among Milwaukee prospects, praising his contact skills and speed while writing that he can play an average second or third base. He’s not expected to provide much in the way of power. While he managed 10 homers in 82 Triple-A contests, he did so with a paltry 83.8 MPH average exit velocity and 25% hard contact rate. Both marks would’ve landed in the bottom 10 qualified major league hitters.
Milwaukee acquired Dunn from the Phillies last offseason. The Brewers were intrigued by the left-handed hitter’s massive .271/.396/.506 showing in Double-A in 2023. The 27-year-old Dunn got a chance to make his major league debut last year. He struggled in a relatively small sample, hitting .221/.282/.316 while striking out 38.5% of the time. Whiffs have been an issue throughout his career. Dunn has fanned at a 28.1% clip in parts of five minor league seasons. He has walked at a massive 15.6% rate over that stretch, but that’s a tough approach to pull off against major league pitchers who have far better command than most arms he has seen in the minors.
A back injury ended Dunn’s season in the middle of June. That cost him a chance to play regularly in Triple-A for the first time in his career. He still has only 15 games at the top minor league level. Dunn has multiple options and is probably ticketed for Nashville to start the year.
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Andruw Monasterio and Vinny Capra are the other multi-positional infielders on the 40-man roster. They’re each in their late 20s with modest offensive upside. They project more as fringe roster types than candidates for regular playing time, though Monasterio made it into 59 MLB games last season. He hit .208/.303/.272 with one home run.
Poll: Who’s Winning The Offseason In The NL East?
The calendar has flipped to February and the start of Spring Training is just a matter of days away. While some notable free agents (including nine of MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents for the 2024-25 offseason) remain unsigned, most clubs have already done the heavy lifting in terms of preparing their roster for the 2025 season. In the coming days, we’ll be taking a look around the league at which clubs have had the strongest offseason to this point. Today, that focus is on the NL East division. After sending three teams to the playoffs in 2024 while a fourth debuted a number of top prospects, there’s plenty of big expectations headed into 2025 all throughout the division. Which team has done the most to set themselves up for success this winter? Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies entered the offseason in need of some late-inning relief help after Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez both hit free agency at the outset of the winter. The club signed right-hander Jordan Romano to a one-year deal after he was non-tendered by the Blue Jays in November, but the club’s other pitching additions have actually been focused on the starting rotation. The addition of versatile swing man Joe Ross creates some much-needed depth and fills the role Spencer Turnbull played on the 2024 club, but the club’s biggest move this winter was swinging a deal with the Marlins for Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo will fit right into the Phillies’ powerhouse rotation alongside while also lessening the club’s reliance on right-hander Taijuan Walker after a disastrous 2024 campaign.
Things have been very quiet for the club on the positional side of things, however, with the addition of outfielder Max Kepler as their regular left fielder being the only notable addition so far. Kepler should help bolster the club’s outfield depth and push Johan Rojas into a part-time role after a difficult 2024 campaign, but it’s still somewhat surprising to see the club make so few alterations to its lineup in spite of rumors earlier this winter that the club could look to move on from third baseman Alec Bohm or right fielder Nick Castellanos in order to more drastically reshape the lineup.
New York Mets
It’s undeniable that the Mets made the single most significant addition of anyone in the division this winter when they signed Juan Soto to a record-shattering $765MM deal just before the Winter Meetings began. Soto is a transformational player with an MVP-caliber ceiling, and even without other supplemental moves landing him is a feat for the organization to be proud of. With that being said, however, the club’s approach to the rest of its offseason since signing Soto has been surprisingly modest. They reunited with veteran southpaw Sean Manaea in free agency, but opted to replace Jose Quintana and Luis Severino in the rotation by bringing in Manaea’s longtime A’s teammate Frankie Montas as he searches for a bounceback and converting Clay Holmes into a starter after several years of success as a late-inning reliever in the Bronx.
Meanwhile, they made something of a splash in the bullpen by adding lefty set-up man A.J. Minter to the mix behind closer Edwin Diaz while also bolstering the club’s depth with deals for Justin Hagenman, Dylan Covey, and Griffin Canning. Additions to the lineup beyond Soto have been fairly muted as well. The club swung a trade to acquire Jose Siri from the Rays in a move that should help the club weather the loss of Harrison Bader in free agency, while adding Nick Madrigal and Jared Young to the mix has helped improve the club’s bench depth. Noticeably absent from the club’s spending spree this winter, however, is a reunion with fan favorite slugger Pete Alonso. That’s left New York with plenty of questions about the infield corners, where Mark Vientos figures to handle one position with internal youngsters like Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio also in the conversation for playing time.
Atlanta Braves
Despite the club’s history of striking early on the free agent and trade markets, the early part of this winter was extremely quiet for the Braves outside of them moving the salary of slugger Jorge Soler to the Angels on the first day of the offseason. The club watched Max Fried and Charlie Morton depart in free agency from their rotation but have not yet done anything of note to address those departures, instead hoping the return of Spencer Strider from injury as well as depth options like Bryce Elder and Ian Anderson will be able to cover the lost innings. Where Atlanta has made a splash, however, is in the lineup. After losing Ronald Acuna Jr. for most of 2024 amid a season full of disappointing performances up and down the club’s lineup, the club added Jurickson Profar on a three-year deal. Profar supplants Jarred Kelenic as the club’s everyday left fielder, while depth additions Bryan De La Cruz and Carlos D. Rodriguez should help Kelenic cover right field until Acuna returns from injury.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals’ youth movement is in full swing with a number of top prospects having reached the majors, highlighted by an outfield that now includes both James Wood and Dylan Crews. They’ve made a number of short-term moves to supplement their young roster this winter, with the most impactful of those being the trade they worked out to bring in first baseman Nathaniel Lowe from the Rangers in exchange for southpaw Robert Garcia. Lowe will pair with free agent addition Josh Bell to handle first base and DH duties in D.C. while infield Amed Rosario was signed to shore up the club’s depth all around the diamond.
Turning to the pitching staff, the Nationals have reunited with Trevor Williams while adding both Michael Soroka and Shinnosuke Ogasawara to the rotation mix in order to support a group of young arms led by MacKenzie Gore. The club’s surplus of viable starting options should also help keep things steady in a bullpen that saw more subtractions and additions this winter. In addition to Garcia being shipped out in the Lowe trade, the Nats non-tendered longtime closer Kyle Finnegan back in November. More recently, the club added veteran right-hander Jorge Lopez on a one-year deal to fill Finnegan’s role as a veteran presence in the late innings.
Miami Marlins
As one of the few clubs in the majors committed to rebuilding at the moment, the Marlins’ offseason looks very different than the rest of the division. Infielder/outfielder Eric Wagaman is the club’s only major league free agent signing, and he has just 18 games of big league experience under his belt to this point. The club also added Matt Mervis to the first base mix alongside Jonah Bride in a swap with the Cubs for Vidal Brujan. Other moves to this point have been more focused on shipping out major league talent than bringing it in, with Jake Burger heading to the Rangers and Luzardo moving to the club’s division rivals in Philadelphia. Those deals have brought in a number of prospects, however: Miami’s farm system added Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd in the Luzardo deal while Max Acosta, Brayan Mendoza, and Echedry Vargas all came over in the exchange for Burger.
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The additions of Soto, Luzardo, and Profar in New York, Philadelphia, and Atlanta respectively all figure to provide major impact, but all three top clubs in the East have been a bit more measured than expected, outside of those moves. Meanwhile, the Nationals have made a flurry of short-term deals and signings to augment their club but haven’t made the sort of high-impact addition many expected with veteran Patrick Corbin coming off the books this winter. Miami’s approach is different than the other five as a rebuilding club, with a weakened major league roster being the price the Marlins have paid to replenish their farm system. Of the five NL East clubs, which one has had the strongest offseason so far? Have your say in the poll below:
Which NL East Team Has Had The Best Offseason?
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New York Mets 66% (4,726)
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Philadelphia Phillies 14% (1,022)
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Atlanta Braves 12% (883)
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Washington Nationals 4% (282)
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Miami Marlins 3% (218)
Total votes: 7,131
What Other Competitive Balance Round Draft Picks Could Be Traded This Winter?
The Competitive Balance Rounds are a pair of bonus rounds within the MLB draft, designed to give an extra pick to the game’s smaller-market teams. Teams that fall within either the bottom 10 in revenues and market size are eligible, and since 2017, the league determined the eligible teams based on a formula involving market score, revenues, and winning percentage. The first of the two Competitive Balance Rounds (CBR-A) comes right before the start of the second round, and CBR-B comes right after the second round. For the 2025 draft, a total of 15 teams will gain an extra pick, and their order within their respective round is determined by their win totals in the 2024 season.
With that explanation out of the way, let’s get to the fun stuff — these picks can be traded. Specifically, a CBR selection can traded exactly once, and to any team in the league. Since these are the only MLB draft picks that are eligible to be dealt, it has become increasingly common to see teams move these extra selections as part of larger trade packages for established talent.
Three CBR picks in the 2024 draft changed hands due to trades, most prominently the Orioles’ inclusion of the 34th overall selection as part of the trade package sent to the Brewers for Corbin Burnes. This offseason has already seen three CBR picks in the 2025 draft dealt, and this post will explore the possibility that some other teams with CBR selections might move these picks to fill a more immediate need.
To cover the broad reason why any of these teams might not make a trade, it’s simply that draft picks are a very valuable asset unto themselves. Controllable young talent is particularly important for lower-revenue clubs that usually don’t splurge on expensive free agents or trade targets, which is part of the reasons why the Competitive Balance Rounds exist in the first place. Clubs are naturally pretty reluctant to move these CBR picks unless the right opportunity presents itself on the trade market.
(First, some notes on the draft order. The first 75 places in the 2025 draft have largely been established, since the remaining free agents who rejected qualifying offers all played for teams who were either luxury-tax payors in 2024, or aren’t revenue-sharing recipients. That means that if Nick Pivetta signs elsewhere, the Red Sox will get their compensation pick after CBR-B. If Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman sign elsewhere, the Mets’ and Astros’ compensation picks will fall after the fourth round. Also, because the Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers all exceeded the second luxury-tax tier in 2024, their first-round picks were dropped by 10 spots in the draft order. This means that these three big spenders are all technically selecting within CBR-A, but obviously these aren’t official CBR picks. The only potential change would be if a team that signs Alonso, Bregman or Pivetta surrenders its second-round pick to do so.)
Onto the selections….
Brewers (33rd overall, CBR-A): Milwaukee is actually making consecutive picks in the draft, as they received a compensatory pick when Willy Adames rejected the team’s qualifying offer and signed with the Giants. Owning the 32nd overall pick might make the Brew Crew slightly more opening to trading the 33rd overall pick, perhaps to add pitching or to the infield in the wake of Adames’ departure. The Brewers could considering adding their CBR pick as a sweetener to try and move Rhys Hoskins‘ contract, yet it’s less likely that the team moves a valuable draft selection just as part of a salary dump.
Tigers (34th overall, CBR-A): The Tigers are considered to be one of the top suitors remaining for Alex Bregman, and signing a qualified free agent would cost the Tigers their third-highest pick in the 2025 draft. Losing the 63rd overall pick means the Tigers almost surely wouldn’t also deal their CBR pick. If Bregman signed elsewhere, it’s more plausible that Detroit could consider trading its CBR pick for a big right-handed bat, but still probably on the unlikely side.
Mariners (35th overall, CBR-A): It was almost exactly a year ago that the M’s traded their CBR-B pick in the 2024 draft to the White Sox as part of the Gregory Santos deal. Santos’ injury-plagued first season in Seattle could make the Mariners more hesitant to an even higher CBR selection, yet this tradable pick might an asset the M’s can use within an overall difficult offseason market for the team. The Mariners are working with limited payroll space and most every team in baseball would prefer win-now help over prospects, seemingly leaving the M’s dealing with a lot of offers for their starting pitchers. With Seattle so reluctant to deal from its excellent rotation, offering up the 35th overall pick in trade talks might help get things moving.
Twins (36th overall, CBR-A): Speaking of front offices without much financial flexibility, Minnesota has had a very quiet offseason, with most of the headlines focused on a potential sale of the franchise rather than any significant roster moves. With reportedly around only $5MM or so in payroll space, the Twins might have to make some trades just to free up more money for more trade possibilities. Moving the CBR-A pick could be added to the Twins’ list of possibilities, but the team has enough potential trade candidates on the active roster that moving a big league-ready player is probably their preference over dealing away a draft pick.
Rays (37th overall, CBR-A): It might not come as much surprise that Tampa is the team that has acquired the most CBR picks over the last seven seasons. As you’ll see shortly, the Rays added to that total with the 42nd overall pick of the 2025 draft. Like with the Brewers and the Adames compensatory selection, having an “extra” pick in a sense might make the Rays more open to dealing this pick here, but that hasn’t been Tampa Bay’s style.
Reds (now Dodgers, 41st overall, CBR-A): This pick was already moved, as Cincinnati traded its selection along with outfield prospect Mike Sirota to Los Angeles in exchange for Gavin Lux.
Athletics (now Rays, 42nd overall, CBR-A): Another swapped pick, as the A’s moved the 42nd overall pick to Tampa Bay as part of the Jeffrey Springs trade. This move in particular highlights the speculative nature of this post, since going into the offseason, the Athletics seemingly wouldn’t have been on the radar as a team likely to trade its CBR pick.
Marlins (43th overall, CBR-A): There’s basically zero chance the Fish move a draft pick in the midst of their extensive rebuild.
Guardians (70th overall, CBR-B): The reigning AL Central champs have generally gone chalk with their CBR selections, not acquiring or trading any picks until this year. Adding an experienced outfielder or middle infielder for the 70th pick might work on paper, as the Guards are another team with two CBR selections and not much spending capacity to address its roster needs.
Orioles (71st overall, CBR-B): The idea for this post came about after writing another piece yesterday about how the O’s might be well-suited to trade this pick.
Diamondbacks (now Guardians, 72nd overall, CBR-B): Arizona sent the 72nd pick and Slade Cecconi to Cleveland to bring Josh Naylor to the desert.
Royals (73rd overall, CBR-B): Kansas City traded its CBR-A selection just hours before the 2024 draft began, moving the 39th overall pick and third base prospect Cayden Wallace to the Nationals for Hunter Harvey. While Harvey battled injuries and wasn’t much of a help in the Royals’ run to the ALDS, the fact that the team made such an aggressive midseason deal in pursuit of a playoff spot might hint that the front office is willing to make another bold swap involving this pick. Outfield help remains the Royals’ biggest need at this point in the winter.
Cardinals (74th overall, CBR-B): Outgoing president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has spoken about wanting to leave a “clean slate” for new PBO Chaim Bloom. Between that and the Cardinals’ stated goal of refocusing on player development, it seems unlikely St. Louis would look to move its CBR pick.
Pirates (75th overall, CBR-B): The Bucs have had a relatively quiet offseason, with the team’s typical lack of big spending. In theory, trading a CBR pick might be a helpful way for the Pirates to add talent without breaking the budget, though Ben Cherington has yet to explore this tactic during his time as Pittsburgh’s general manager.
Rockies (76th overall, CBR-B): While the Rockies aren’t technically in an official rebuild, they’re not exactly building up after losing 204 games over the last two seasons. Using this pick to add another young player to the farm system seems far more likely than the Rox trading the pick away.
The Orioles’ Underrated Trade Chip
Exactly one year ago today, the Orioles and Brewers agreed to the blockbuster trade that sent Corbin Burnes to Baltimore. Since Burnes has now moved on to sign with the Diamondbacks and the O’s didn’t win a playoff game in the star right-hander’s lone season at Camden Yards, debates may rage for years about who “won” the trade, even if an argument can certainly be made that both teams made off well.
From the Orioles’ perspective, there was clear benefit to installing an ace like Burnes atop the team’s rotation. On paper, a frontline pitcher was the final piece needed to put a young, deep, and talented O’s team over the top as a World Series contender, even if things didn’t ultimately work out for Baltimore in October. Giving up Joey Ortiz, DL Hall, and a Competitive Balance Round-A draft pick for one season of Burnes’ services was seen as an acceptable trade package, since the perception was that the Orioles could afford to be a little aggressive, given the extra depth afforded by their very deep farm system.
Fast forward a year, and the Orioles (perhaps frustratingly to the team and their fans) find themselves in roughly the same spot heading into the 2025 season. Still looking for a postseason breakout, the O’s haven’t been sitting on their hands, as Tyler O’Neill, Andrew Kittredge, Gary Sanchez, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Charlie Morton have all been signed as free agent additions, boosting the club’s payroll from roughly $102.5MM in 2024 to a projected $157.3MM in 2025. Such a payroll hike is quite substantial, but O’Neill is the only one of those players signed beyond next season, as the Orioles haven’t yet shown the increased appetite for longer-term spending that many expected under new owner David Rubenstein.
The roster as it stands on February 1 still looks like a strong one, and the Orioles should certainly be considered favorites to at least reach the playoffs for the third consecutive year. Still, if the O’s want to make one more splashy move and aren’t yet willing to break the bank in free agency, that leaves the trade market as GM Mike Elias’ best route for an upgrade. Even if Baltimore’s farm system has now been depleted by trades and several players graduating out of “prospect” status and onto the MLB roster, the Orioles also have another kind of one-year-only surplus that might yet prove beneficial in landing more experienced talent by Opening Day.
Unlike in the NFL, NBA, or NHL, Major League Baseball doesn’t allow its teams to trade draft picks….with one exception. The teams that receive a bonus pick via the two Competitive Balance rounds are allowed to deal that pick away, which has provided an interesting wrinkle to trade discussions since the CB rounds were instituted prior to the 2017 draft. These bonus picks are allotted to teams that fall within the league’s bottom 10 in either market size or revenues, and the Orioles have qualified for an extra CBR pick every year.
As noted earlier, the Orioles’ willingness to include their CBR-A pick (the 34th overall selection in the 2024 draft) was a key component of the Burnes trade, and the Brewers used that pick to select slugging Tennessee first base prospect Blake Burke last July. This offseason saw the Reds trade their CBR-A pick to the Dodgers as part of the Gavin Lux trade, the Athletics included their CBR-A pick as part of the trade package that brought Jeffrey Springs to West Sacramento, and the Diamondbacks sent Slade Cecconi and their CBR-B selection to the Guardians in exchange for Josh Naylor.
Because the teams who qualify for CBR selections switch rounds every year, Baltimore’s extra pick comes in the second Competitive Balance Round in 2025, currently slotted as the 71st overall selection. This means the Orioles will be on the clock six times within the first 94 picks of the 2025 draft, between their regular picks (19th, 59th, 94th) in the first three rounds, their CBR-B pick (71st), and the compensation picks (30th, 31st) that the club received when Burnes and Anthony Santander signed elsewhere. Because the Orioles are a revenue-sharing recipient, and because Burnes and Santander rejected qualifying offers and signed deals worth more than $50MM, the O’s landed those compensatory picks right after the end of the first round.
The double dose of compensation picks might make the O’s more likely than not to move their CBR-B pick, just because it’s fairly uncommon for a team to have two qualified free agents depart in the same offseason. It should be noted that the Orioles’ decision to trade their CBR-A pick for Burnes might’ve been influenced by another bonus pick the team received in that 2024 draft class. The O’s received the 32nd overall pick under the league’s Prospect Promotion Incentive rules, since Gunnar Henderson won the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year Award after being ranked within the top 100 of preseason prospect lists from (at least two of) MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and ESPN.com.
Even if a CBR-B pick doesn’t carry as much value as the CBR-A selection dealt for Burnes, the Diamondbacks’ Naylor trade is evidence that a CBR-B pick can still bring back some quality talent. Hypothetically, the Orioles could look to replicate the Burnes trade as closely as possible, and include their CBR pick as part of a larger trade package for an ace pitcher. Even if the Orioles might technically have a rotation surplus if all their starters are healthy, it isn’t clear if any of Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Morton, or Sugano are necessarily the pitcher you’d want starting the first game of a playoff series.
A mention of Dylan Cease here is unavoidable. The Padres are known to be gauging interest in Cease, who (like Burnes) is a year away from free agency. Baltimore had interest in Cease last winter before the White Sox dealt him to San Diego, and that interest extended into this offseason, as the Orioles reportedly saw a Cease trade as a pivot move in case Burnes signed with a new team. Further extending the comparison to Burnes, the O’s might well be viewing Cease as another one-year rental, with an eye towards recouping another compensatory pick next winter if and when Cease were to leave in free agency.
It would obviously take more than just the CBR-B pick to obtain Cease, but just having a tradable draft selection gives the O’s an interesting chip that most other teams linked to Cease can’t offer. Of the teams publicly known to have interest in Cease, Minnesota is the only other club who has a CBR selection — the Twins select in CBR-A this year, so their possession of the 36th overall pick could even give them a leg up over the Orioles. However, what the Twins don’t have is two extra compensatory picks expanding their overall draft pool, so Minnesota might well be less willing to move its CBR pick than the Orioles.
Regardless of whether the CBR-B pick is traded or not, Baltimore is already going to be getting a heck of a bounty back in the 2025 draft. Selecting six prospects within the top 94 is a terrific way to help restock a thinned-out farm system, but selecting five prospects and trading the 71st overall pick for some immediate help might be the more effective way of managing the Orioles’ long-term and short-term goals.
The Giants Shouldn’t Call It An Offseason Yet
The Giants' offseason got out to a roaring start and has quieted to something of a murmur. Even before the winter truly began and they formally announced a changing of the guard in baseball operations, then-advisor and now-president of baseball ops Buster Posey at least had a hand in (if he wasn't firmly driving the bus) extending Matt Chapman for six years and $151MM. At his introductory press conference, Posey offered up the following quote:
"I think back on some of my earliest memories walking into a spring training clubhouse -- walking in and seeing Willie Mays sitting at a table with Willie McCovey and Gaylord Perry, Juan Marichal. The next week it's Will Clark, Jeff Kent, Barry Bonds. I always appreciated -- and I don't think I appreciated it as much when I was a younger player -- but as time went on, I appreciated what that meant not only to the community but to us as players. There's a standard and expectation for being a San Francisco Giant. It's a privilege to try to go out on the field and hold ourselves accountable to that standard. You can go more toward my era, with [Matt] Cain and [Tim] Lincecum, [Madison] Bumgarner and [Brandon] Crawford and [Brandon] Belt. What I came to realize is sure, all those guys were great players and part of great teams, but what those guys ultimately meant to the San Francisco Giants fanbase and the community was memories. And all of us that are lucky enough to get to be involved in baseball in whatever capacity, understand that not only is it the greatest game in the world, but we're in the memory-making business. It's ultimately entertainment. It's an opportunity for grandparents and parents to share memories. It's an opportunity for strangers sitting out in the bleachers to share a great memory that happens at the ballpark and that can be talked about from that time on for the rest of their life, potentially."
Just over a month into the offseason, that mentality appeared to be on full display. Willy Adames put pen to paper on the largest contract the franchise had ever handed out: a seven-year, $182MM contract. The team was tied to marquee free agents like Corbin Burnes and looked into trades for star players like Kyle Tucker and Garrett Crochet, ultimately balking at the notion of including top prospect Bryce Eldridge in a package for either. Still, it was a promising start to a winter after years of the Giants eschewing bids for high-end free agents and generally showing an aversion to long-term commitments.
The vibe surrounding the Giants seems much different just six to seven weeks later. The Giants' most recent move was a cost-saving trade. Posey is now expressing that he's comfortable with the roster as currently constructed.
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Poll: Should The Phillies Extend J.T. Realmuto?
Earlier this offseason, reporting out of Philadelphia indicated that Phillies brass are considering reducing the workload of veteran catcher J.T. Realmuto as he enters the final season of his deal with the club, after the first season of Realmuto’s career where he played less than 100 games due to injury. In that same report, there was a suggestion that the club could look to broach the topic of a contract extension with Realmuto ahead of his final year of team control, whether that would ultimately come later in the offseason or once camp opened up for Spring Training.
As January comes to a close, there have been no further reports regarding the state of talks between the sides. That could change quickly, however, given that camp will open in just two weeks. After all, last winter saw plenty of rumors about the possibility of an extension between the Phillies and right-hander Zack Wheeler, but talks did not begin until Spring Training was underway and eventually resolved in early March. Should the Phillies be interested in following a similar timeline with Realmuto, it’s easy to imagine talks starting up in the near future.
Realmuto, 34 in March, was dealt to the Phillies by the division rival Marlins prior to the 2019 season and has been a key cog in the Philadelphia lineup ever since. In 699 games for the club, the veteran has slashed an excellent .266/.331/.463 with a 112 wRC+. That puts Realmuto alongside Salvador Perez and Sean Murphy has one of the better offensive catchers in the past decade, though he falls outside the top tier occupied by Adley Rutschman, William Contreras, Willson Contreras, and Will Smith. Realmuto was at his best during the 2022 season, when he finished seventh in NL MVP voting, won the Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards for the catcher position, and became the second catcher in MLB history to post 20 homers and 20 steals in a single season.
The past two seasons have seen Realmuto’s age and heavy workloads begin to catch up with him, however. He’s hit just .258/.315/.442 (105 wRC+) since the start of the 2023 campaign. His 25.2% strikeout rate during that time is higher than ever, and his walk rate has dipped to just 6.5%. Perhaps more importantly, Realmuto has fallen from the upper echelon of defensive catchers in the sport to become below average in terms of both blocking and framing, though he still remains elite when it comes to controlling the running game. While Realmuto has remained productive even amid this recent decline in skills, it’s fair to wonder if the veteran’s downturn in production the past two years could worsen as he enters his mid-30s given the harsh aging curve associated with the catcher position.
On the other hand, Philadelphia’s options without Realmuto in the fold are uninspiring. After a strong year as Realmuto’s backup in 2022, Garrett Stubbs has been one of the worst hitters in the sport the past two seasons with a paltry .206/.287/.271 slash line in 95 games. Youngster Rafael Marchan hit a far more robust .294/.345/.549 (146 wRC+) last year while filling in for Realmuto during his trip to the injured list, but that came in a sample of just 17 games and 56 plate appearances. If Realmuto were to head to free agency after the coming season, the Phillies would need to find an external addition at catcher to fortify that group anyway.
None of those options figure to be a clear upgrade even over the diminished form Realmuto has shown the past two seasons. Danny Jansen, Jose Trevino, and Victor Caratini are among the best catchers expected to be available next winter, but Realmuto’s 105 wRC+ is tied with Caratini for the lead among that group over the past two years and his 4.2 fWAR easily clears the production that trio has put up in timeshare roles. While a big season from Jansen and/or an additional step back from Realmuto could change things, a healthy season from Realmuto with a reduction in his day-to-day workload could improve his numbers and make him more difficult to bring back should he make it to the open market.
How do MLBTR readers feel president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski should handle Realmuto ahead of his final season under contract? Have your say in the poll below:
Should The Phillies Extend J.T. Realmuto This Spring?
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No, let him test free agency and put off deciding on the future of the position until after the season. 63% (2,955)
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Yes, keep him from hitting free agency and lock him down as the starting catcher. 37% (1,718)
Total votes: 4,673
Poll: Should The Padres Trade Dylan Cease Or Michael King?
While the Padres no longer appear to be under a mandate to cut payroll for the 2025 season, signs still point to the club needing to make a trade or two in order to free up space in an already-maximized budget if they hope to address multiple holes in the lineup. That’s led to plenty of rumors surrounding the club’s pending free agents, the most valuable of whom are without a doubt right-handers Dylan Cease and Michael King.
Trading a front-line starter like Cease or King might seem counterproductive for a club that’s already lacking in rotation depth, but it’s possible that the trade return for either player could involve a young starter or two while allowing the Padres to reallocate the freed up payroll space to the lineup. It’s surely under that logic that San Diego has explored Cease’s market and discussed King with rival clubs as well. The Padres have reportedly been more resistant to trading King under the belief that he’s more likely than Cease to sign an extension, but president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is generally open-minded when it comes to trade discussions. That the two sides face a nearly $1.5MM gap after exchanging salary figures and appear headed toward an arbitration hearing only adds an additional layer of complexity.
Cease, 29, is the bigger name of the two righties. A longtime top prospect with the Cubs and White Sox, the right-hander debuted on the south side back in 2019 and had developed into a legitimate front-end arm by 2021. Over the past four seasons, he’s pitched to a 3.52 ERA (120 ERA+) with a 3.32 FIP and an excellent 29.7% strikeout rate. Perhaps even more impressive than Cease’s strong rate numbers is his volume. The right-hander has been a workhorse by the standards of the modern game with 716 innings of work across 130 starts since the start of 2021. That’s the most starts and seventh-highest innings count of any starter in that time.
By contrast, King doesn’t offer the same level of star power or track record. The 2024 campaign was actually the first time King has acted as a full-time starter in the majors, and his 173 2/3 innings of work were not only a career high but the first time he had thrown even 105 innings since 2018. The results can’t be denied, however, and King was nothing short of excellent. He posted a 2.95 ERA (139 ERA+) with a 3.33 FIP. His peripherals are quite similar to Cease, as well; his 27.7% strikeout rate was a touch lower than Cease’s 29.4% figure, but his 8.7% walk rate was nearly identical to Cease’s 8.5%. King’s 6.2% barrel rate was far better than that of Cease.
Given that similar production and a price tag that’ll be $5-7MM less than that of Cease, it’s easy to imagine some clubs preferring King between the two. If King can fetch what the Padres deem to be a better return, moving the more affordable arm and keeping the more proven/durable righty makes some sense. On the other hand, King still seems likelier to sign an extension than the Boras Corp-represented Cease, and Cease has shown some year-to-year volatility. He posted a below-average ERA as recently as 2023.
If you were in Preller’s shoes and needed to free up some payroll space to address various holes on the roster, how would you proceed with your coveted rotation duo? Have your say in the poll below:
Which Should The Padres Trade?
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They shouldn't trade either pitcher. 40% (3,072)
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They should trade Dylan Cease 28% (2,170)
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They should trade both. 23% (1,749)
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They should trade Michael King 9% (674)
Total votes: 7,665