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Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

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After spending big in the previous two offseasons, the Rangers took a much more conservative approach this winter due to concerns over their broadcasting revenues.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $24.525MM
Total spending: $46.025MM

Option Decisions

Extensions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Rangers were one of the 14 teams whose games were aired on the Bally Sports regional sports networks owned and operated by the Diamond Sports Group, until DSG filed for bankruptcy last year.  The situation manifested itself in a few different ways for the various teams involved, but for the Rangers, Guardians, and Twins, it wasn’t until late January that the three clubs reached one-year agreements with Diamond to continue airing games on Bally Sports for the 2024 season.  The three teams will reportedly earn roughly 85% of what they previously received annually from DSG in the pre-existing contracts, which in Texas’ case represents around $94.35MM rather than $111MM.

It remains to be seen if Diamond Sports Group or Bally Sports will even exist in its current form by 2025, as the fate of the company may hinge on a restructuring deal that includes an investment from Amazon.  However, as it currently stands, the Rangers don’t know where their games will be airing once the 2024 season is over, and figuring out that future is arguably the organization’s key goal this year, much more so than anything that happens on the field.

With this uncertainty in mind, the Rangers’ first World Series title was even more of a relief for the long-suffering fan base — if Texas had lost the Series to the Diamondbacks, imagine the compounded frustration if the Rangers had followed up that loss with a low-key set of offseason moves.  This isn’t to say that the Arlington faithful are entirely thrilled with how the winter has played out for their team, and yet comparatively speaking, there were fewer holes to be filled on what was already a championship roster.

GM Chris Young was up front with his team’s plans in late November, telling media that the focus was on “looking for additions to kind of shore up” what was already “a great returning core group.”  Acknowledging the TV revenue uncertainty and “a responsibility to be financially prudent,” Young said that the Rangers “expect to be active in free agency, but probably not spending at the level that we have spent in previous offseasons.”

Considering that Texas spent roughly $846.35MM on free agents during the 2021-22 and 22-23 offseasons, some kind of step back was maybe inevitable even in a world where the broadcast rights situation was more stable.  And, it isn’t as if the Rangers reduced payroll — RosterResource estimates Texas has a current payroll of around $224.1MM and a luxury tax number of $247MM, both up slightly from their $214MM payroll and $237.1MM tax figure in 2023.

The largest expenditure came on a pitcher who probably won’t be making his Rangers debut until after the All-Star break.  Texas signed free agent Tyler Mahle to a two-year, $22MM contract that is largely backloaded, as a nod to how Mahle will miss the bulk of the coming season rehabbing from his Tommy John procedure from May 2023.  Obviously the Rangers are pretty comfortable in Mahle’s ability to recover on a normal timeline and then contribute to rotation down the stretch, even if there is some uncertainty about the fact that Texas is expecting the same from several members of the pitching staff.

Max Scherzer will be sidelined until at least June and probably closer to the start of July after undergoing back surgery in December.  Like Mahle, Jacob deGrom also had a Tommy John surgery last year and is projected to return by the second half.  If all three recover as planned, this is quite the set of reinforcements coming for the pennant race, yet that is also admittedly a best-case scenario considering how deGrom, Mahle, and (to a lesser extent) the 39-year-old Scherzer have all been hampered by injuries in recent years.

The in-house quintet of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning, and Cody Bradford will try to hold the fort until the injured trio are ready, and even a second-choice version of the Texas rotation is still pretty solid.  The Rangers added to this mix just within the last week by signing Michael Lorenzen to a one-year, $4.5MM deal and ending the right-hander’s long sojourn in free agency.

Lorenzen will probably need some time in extended Spring Training to get fully built up after going so long without a proper offseason camp, yet it wouldn’t be surprising to see the veteran supplant Bradford as the fifth starter.  Lorenzen’s return to starting pitching in 2022 saw him amass 97 2/3 innings with the Angels, and he far surpassed that total by tossing 153 frames with the Tigers and Phillies in 2023.  His quality first half with Detroit resulted in an All-Star berth, though Lorenzen seemed to wear down after being traded to the Phillies, and he ended up relegated to the bullpen during Philadelphia’s postseason run.

Jose Urena, Adrian Sampson, and Danny Duffy were among the starter/swingman types added for even more depth on minor league contracts, though Duffy could potentially opt out of his deal since he won’t be on the Opening Day roster.  Prospects Owen White, Cole Winn, or Jack Leiter could also factor into the picture, but the bottom line is that Texas should have enough pitching to at least make do until the team gets more clarity on when deGrom, Mahle, and/or Scherzer will all be ready to roll.

This isn’t to say that the Rangers didn’t at least test the waters on some other bigger-name pitchers over the winter.  Texas reportedly discussed a Dylan Cease trade with the White Sox before Cease was dealt to the Padres, and they also had interest in Yariel Rodriguez and Clayton Kershaw before the two pitchers respectively signed with the Blue Jays and Dodgers.  In Kershaw’s case, he’ll also be out of action until around midseason after undergoing shoulder surgery, yet the Rangers’ interest in the local product has been a running storyline for the last few years, though Kershaw has continually re-signed with Los Angeles on a series of short-term contracts.

The biggest pitcher on the Rangers’ radar was, of course, postseason hero Jordan Montgomery.  After being acquired from the Cardinals at the deadline, Montgomery had a 2.79 ERA over 67 2/3 regular-season innings and then a 2.90 ERA over 31 innings during the playoffs.  Montgomery’s huge role in the Rangers’ championship boosted his stock considerably heading into free agency, yet the left-hander still remains unsigned at the time of this post.  As of early March, Montgomery and his representatives at the Boras Corporation were reportedly still seeking a seven-year deal, and the most recent reports indicate that some “long-term” offers are still a possibility.

Montgomery, Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, and Matt Chapman became known as “the Boras Four” this offseason, as the Scott Boras clients all had extended stints in free agency that (for the latter three) concluded in short-term deals with opt-outs after the 2024 season.  It isn’t yet clear if Montgomery will also end up signing such a contract, yet this might be the only realistic chance at a reunion between Montgomery and the Rangers.  The Lorenzen signing may hint that Texas has simply moved on from Montgomery, but until the southpaw puts pen to paper with another team, the Rangers can’t be completely ruled out given their successful shared history last fall.

Texas won its World Series despite a relief corps that was shaky at best for much of the season, so it isn’t surprising that Young targeted the relief market.  Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith, and Chris Stratton all departed in free agency, and the Rangers were linked to such names as Hector Neris, Robert Stephenson, Ryan Brasier, and Jordan Hicks.

The search for relief help ended with the signings of David Robertson and Kirby Yates to one-year deals, though Robertson’s contract has a (rarely-exercised) mutual option attached for 2025.  The veterans are each coming off solid, if unspectacular, 2023 campaigns, and Robertson in particular brings a wealth of playoff experience.  Robertson and Yates will be slotted in as set-up men behind closer Jose Leclerc, whose $6.25MM club option was unsurprisingly exercised by the team.

Much like with the rotation, the Rangers are relying more on depth and quantity of arms rather than true elite quality to carry the bullpen.  It wouldn’t be surprising if Texas again makes relief pitching a priority at the deadline, though if the injured starters return at midseason, Dunning or Bradford could then be bumped to help out the bullpen.

Though Mitch Garver had a big year at the plate in 2023, his injury history and increasing limitations as a DH-only player rather than as a catcher kept the Rangers from issuing a qualifying offer as Garver entered free agency.  This decision might come back to haunt Texas if Garver helps the Mariners take a run in the AL West, yet the Rangers instead addressed their catching situation by signing Andrew Knizner as Jonah Heim’s new backup.  Garver and defensive specialist Austin Hedges were let go in free agency, and Sam Huff and minor league signing Andrew Knapp are likely the top depth options at Triple-A.

Continuing with the position player mix, the Rangers didn’t do much to tinker with an already powerful lineup.  Travis Jankowski was re-signed to continue in his role as the Rangers’ primary backup outfielder, while Robbie Grossman and Brad Miller departed in free agency since the club is seemingly pretty comfortable with letting younger players (i.e. Ezequiel Duran and Josh Smith) handle part-time or bench roles.

Then again, some early-season injury concerns could open the door to more playing time.  Nathaniel Lowe is likely going to start the year on the 10-day IL due to an oblique strain, while Corey Seager (sports hernia surgery) and Josh Jung (calf strain) have only just started playing their first Spring Training games.  Seager and Jung might need just minimal 10-day IL stints to get them fully recovered and ramped up, and Lowe isn’t expected to miss too much of April, even if oblique injuries are sometimes hard to gauge.  Lowe’s injury in particular might open the door for minor league signing Jared Walsh to make the roster as a first base fill-in, and Texas also added former Reds top prospect Jose Barrero on a waiver claim just in case Seager or Jung can’t go by Opening Day.

Multiple players could take turns rotating through the DH spot, yet Wyatt Langford might end up getting the bulk of those at-bats as part of his meteoric rise to the majors.  Langford was the fourth overall pick in last year’s amateur draft and he amassed only 200 total plate appearances in the Rangers’ farm system last season.  However, Langford was shredding opposing pitching to such an extent that he was promoted all the way to Triple-A by the end of his first pro season, and the Rangers have already announced that the phenom will be part of the Opening Day roster.

There’s no guarantee that the 22-year-old will continue his exceptional hitting now that he’s facing big league hurlers, but Langford has already engendered such trust from the Texas player development staff that he is already considered ready for the challenge this early in his professional career.  If Langford is able to even somewhat replicate his minor league numbers, the Texas lineup will be even more dangerous.

For as much money as the Rangers spent to build their World Series team, the contributions of homegrown prospects (i.e. Jung, Leclerc, Evan Carter, Leody Taveras) and unheralded acquisitions (such as Adolis Garcia) have been just as critical as the higher-priced free agents.  The Rangers’ confidence in its pipeline might be another reason why the team was comfortable in dialing back the spending, as Texas might already have enough to make a run at a second consecutive title.

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays typically make at least one significant trade that sends out a veteran player to reduce spending and acquire controllable talent. Tampa Bay did that again in a major deal with the Dodgers, but it was otherwise a relatively quiet winter at the Trop.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $8.75MM
Total spending: $9.1MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Signed LHP Shane McClanahan to two-year, $7.2MM deal to avoid arbitration (remains eligible for arbitration through 2027)

Notable Losses

It’s a near annual tradition that the Rays face two big questions going into each offseason. How will they keep their spending in check, and will they lose anyone from a key leadership position on the coaching staff or in the front office?

This winter, the seemingly inevitable front office departure came first. General manager Peter Bendix, who had worked as Erik Neander’s top lieutenant in baseball operations, left the organization to serve as president of baseball ops for the Marlins. The Rays didn’t immediately name a new #2 executive, instead divvying up Bendix’s former responsibilities among assistant GMs Will Cousins, Chanda Lawdermilk, Carlos Rodriguez and Kevin Ibach (the latter of whom was promoted to that role in January).

While the Rays lost Bendix, they’ve solidified their main leadership duo of Neander and manager Kevin Cash. Each signed contract extensions in February that run at least beyond the 2028 season. Terry Francona’s retirement means Cash is now the longest-tenured manager in MLB as he enters his tenth year at the helm. Neander has been at or near the top of baseball operations for even longer, as he’d taken on a lead role in the front office around Andrew Friedman’s departure in October 2014.

Neander and his staff entered the winter with a slate of payroll commitments that seemed lofty by organizational standards. They had just shy of $77MM in guaranteed contracts and an arbitration class projected for upwards of $45MM. A few obvious cuts (e.g. Raimel Tapia, Jalen Beeks, Josh Fleming, Cole Sulser and Christian Bethancourt) reduced the arbitration outlay, but it seemed as if the Rays would again need to turn to the trade market to cut spending. Tampa Bay had opened the 2023 season with around $73MM in player commitments. Even with that number going up, ownership was never going to be comfortable matching the payroll projection from the beginning of the offseason.

Tyler Glasnow was set for a $25MM salary that would’ve been the largest in franchise history, thus making him the most apparent trade candidate. Yet, that was complicated by Glasnow’s strong relationship with Rays’ higher-ups and, more meaningfully, an uncharacteristically thin rotation mix. Tampa Bay lost Shane McClanahan and Jeffrey Springs to Tommy John surgeries last season. Drew Rasmussen underwent a flexor repair and will miss a good portion of 2024.

Aside from Glasnow, the Rays were down to Zach Eflin and ’23 deadline pickup Aaron Civale as their only healthy, proven big league starters. Taj Bradley is a recent top prospect but struggled to a 5.59 ERA over 23 appearances as a rookie. Zack Littell had shown signs of becoming the Rays’ next successful reliever-to-starter conversion, yet that only really kicked into gear in the final two months of last season. Shane Baz would face workload restrictions in his first season back from a 2022 Tommy John procedure. Eflin and Civale, while currently healthy, have had injury concerns in the past.

That presumably made a Glasnow trade difficult even for a front office accustomed to making those kinds of tough decisions. Ultimately, it proved the clearest way for Tampa Bay to get their payroll closer to a typical level while bringing back two controllable MLB players. The Rays and Dodgers agreed to a deal sending Glasnow and veteran outfielder Manuel Margot (who was set for a $10MM salary in the final year of his contract) to L.A. for righty Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny DeLuca.

Neither Pepiot nor DeLuca have reached arbitration. Pepiot is under club control for five seasons, while the Rays control DeLuca for six years. Tampa Bay kicked in $2MM on Margot’s salary and agreed to pay the $2MM buyout on his 2025 mutual option. The deal saved them around $33MM this year. Glasnow agreed to a four-year extension with the Dodgers as a condition of the trade. (Los Angeles later flipped Margot to the Twins in February.)

Pepiot won’t match Glasnow’s ace-level ceiling, but he’ll step directly into the rotation. The Butler product owns a 2.76 ERA over 17 MLB appearances. He’s regarded as a potential mid-rotation arm thanks to a mid-90s fastball and excellent changeup. Pepiot may well have established himself as a key piece of the Dodger rotation last year had he not suffered a significant oblique strain at the end of Spring Training. That kept him under 65 innings between the majors and Triple-A in 2023. The Rays may need to keep an eye on Pepiot’s workload, but he slots in behind Eflin and Civale in the starting staff.

DeLuca, meanwhile, is a replacement for Margot. They’re each right-handed hitting outfielders with good contact skills and the ability to play all three outfield positions. DeLuca only has 24 games of major league experience but is coming off a .294/.390/.566 line in the upper minors. He was on track for a fourth outfield spot before breaking his hand this spring, so he’ll likely be on the injured list until the early part of the summer.

Glasnow and Margot turned out to be the highest-profile players whom the Rays would move. There were a few rumors about other stars who are into their arbitration years, namely Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes.  There’s nothing to indicate the Rays ever got close to trading either.

It’s a bit surprising they didn’t deal righty-hitting DH/corner bat Harold Ramírez, who is making just under $4MM and is down to two seasons of club control. Ramírez, a good but not elite hitter with defensive limitations, is the kind of player whom the Rays typically shop as their arbitration prices climb. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported in January that Tampa Bay had floated him on the trade market, but they apparently didn’t find an offer to their liking. Barring a surprise move in the next five days, he’ll open the season as their top option at DH.

While they didn’t trade Ramírez, the Rays did flip one player from their corner outfield mix. Tampa Bay sent Luke Raley to the Mariners in a one-for-one swap to bring in versatile infielder José Caballero. Raley has yet to reach arbitration so this deal didn’t have anything to do with the payroll, but Tampa Bay added some roster balance in swapping offense for a more valuable defensive player.

Caballero appeared in 104 games for Seattle as a rookie. While he hit a modest .221/.343/.320 over 280 plate appearances, he stole 26 bases and rated as a plus defender at second base. Seattle didn’t have much shortstop time to offer him thanks to the presence of J.P. Crawford. The Rays have already declared Caballero their expected starter at short, forming a middle infield tandem with Brandon Lowe. Defensive stalwart Taylor Walls will begin the year on the IL as he works back from last fall’s hip surgery.

(The Rays still haven’t provided any update on Wander Franco. MLB and the team are awaiting results of a criminal investigation in the Dominican Republic after multiple minors accused Franco of sexual abuse. He remains on the roster but will very likely be placed back on administrative leave once the regular season begins.)

On the same day as the Caballero trade, the Rays partially back-filled the outfield depth lost by dealing Raley when the team Bay acquired lefty-hitting Richie Palacios from the Cardinals for reliever Andrew Kittredge. Palacios was available in a DFA trade as recently as last June but turned some heads with a .258/.307/.516 showing in 32 games for St. Louis late last year. His major league track record is limited, but Palacios has posted an excellent strikeout and walk profile in the upper minors. He has hit well this spring and could break camp, although a remaining minor league option affords the front office roster flexibility. Neither Caballero nor Palacios has reached a full year of service time. They’re both controllable for at least six seasons.

The rest of Tampa Bay’s trades were relatively minor, as they moved on from a pair of former top prospects who haven’t clicked. The Rays shipped Vidal Bruján alongside reliever Calvin Faucher to the Marlins for a trio of minor leaguers in November. They made a similar move just yesterday, sending speedster Greg Jones to the Rockies for non-roster southpaw Joe Rock. Tampa Bay also dealt Blake Hunt and Michael Mercado (to the Mariners and Phillies, respectively) after determining they weren’t going to add them to the 40-man roster to prevent them from reaching minor league free agency.

While most of the Rays’ roster maneuvering always comes via trade, they did make a trio of low-cost free agent pickups. The Rays brought back swingman Chris Devenski on a $1.1MM deal with a club option early in the offseason. That was their only major league free agent acquisition until February, when they jumped on a pair of players whose prices came in south of expectations.

Reliever Phil Maton inked a one-year, $6.5MM pact that includes a team option for 2025. He generates plenty of whiffs and soft contact behind a high-spin curveball that enables his 89 MPH fastball to play beyond its velocity as his “secondary” pitch. Maton doesn’t have the traditional power arsenal that gets relievers paid in free agency, yet he’s coming off a career-low 3.00 ERA and has run above-average strikeout rates in four straight years. The Rays’ preference for building a bullpen comprising pitchers with varying arm angles and repertoires has been well-chronicled in recent seasons. More often than not, it works.

While it was a little surprising that Maton couldn’t secure a two-year pact, the Rays’ other February free agent signing was very unexpected. Amed Rosario isn’t coming off a good season, but few would’ve anticipated he’d settle for a $1.5MM guarantee. He’d been a durable and roughly league average performer for Cleveland in 2021-22 before his defensive grades tumbled last year.

Rosario reportedly turned down a $4MM offer from the Yankees because the Rays presented a clearer path to everyday reps at shortstop. That might be the case throughout the season given Caballero’s inexperience, although Cash stated after the Rosario signing that the latter would begin the year in a multi-positional role off the bench.

That rounds out the MLB position player mix for now, although there’s at least one move coming before Opening Day. After placing Bethancourt on waivers, the Rays dropped to one catcher on the 40-man roster. They’ve stuck with that arrangement throughout the offseason. René Pinto is their clear #1 option after hitting six homers in 39 games. The Rays will obviously need to make another move to add a backup.

For now, it seems that minor league signee Alex Jackson, who has played all of five MLB games in the last two seasons, is the favorite to grab that job. That’s despite a .143/.194/.179 batting line this spring. Jackson’s longstanding strikeout troubles at least open the door for old friend Francisco Mejía, who returned on a non-roster pact after being released from a minor league deal with the Angels. There’s clear room for an upgrade from outside the organization. The Rays should evaluate the catching market as veterans opt out of minor league deals over the next few days. Former top prospect Joey Bart has long stood as a speculative trade possibility, as he’s out of options and has been kicked down the depth chart with the Giants.

Caballero, Lowe and Rosario should see the bulk of the work in the middle infield. Paredes is back at third base, while Yandy Díaz is in line for the majority of the first base reps. Curtis Mead could play a bat-first role throughout the infield. That would’ve also been the case for Jonathan Aranda, but he broke his finger this week and is headed to the IL. Top third base prospect Junior Caminero looms in the upper minors but will begin the season in Triple-A.

Arozarena is back as one of the game’s best left fielders. Jose Siri will get the bulk of the playing time in center field. Josh Lowe should be the starter in right field when healthy, but he’s also going to begin the year on the shelf rehabbing an oblique issue. That could open right field reps for Ramírez or Palacios. The DeLuca injury could create a bench spot for Jake Mangum, who has impressed this spring. A college standout at Mississippi State, the 28-year-old Mangum was the third piece in the return from the Marlins for Bruján and Faucher. He’s a potential fifth outfielder.

There’s a fair bit of position player talent, as is customary for an organization that annually runs a strong prospect pipeline. The aforementioned lack of rotation depth is probably the biggest question mark. A pectoral strain is sending Bradley to the IL. There’s an opening for the #5 starter behind Eflin, Civale, Pepiot and Littell. The Rays are stretching Devenski and waiver claim Tyler Alexander out as multi-inning options who could contribute as abbreviated starters. They brought back Jake Odorizzi and added former NPB righty Naoyuki Uwasawa on minor league deals.

Any of Devenski, Alexander or even Odorizzi could also find themselves in the bullpen. Minor league signee Jacob Waguespack has already earned a 40-man roster spot, putting him in a good spot to secure a middle relief role. They’ll need a few other arms to bridge the gap between the rotation and the likes of Maton, Pete Fairbanks and Jason Adam in the late innings.

Cot’s Baseball Contracts projects the Rays to enter the season with a $98.4MM player payroll. That’s both easily a franchise high and firmly in the bottom third of the league. They face their ever-present challenge of going against bigger spenders in the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox, as well as a Baltimore team awash in young talent that chased the Rays down to win the AL East a year ago. The division is always an uphill battle, but the Rays typically find ways to overcome it.

Offseason In Review: San Francisco Giants

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It was a bit of a slow burn, but the Giants ended up being the main beneficiary of the tepid offseason, as they were able to sign three star players after February had already begun. Since they had also signed a significant deal with a Korean superstar and traded for a former Cy Young winner, it added up to the most significant winter the club has had in years.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $73.755MM (not including Lee’s posting fee or Snell’s 2026 signing bonus)
Total spending: $324.005MM (not including Lee’s posting fee)

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Many recent offseasons for the Giants have been defined by who they didn’t acquire. They were in the mix for superstars like Bryce Harper and Aaron Judge but ultimately didn’t get those deals across the finish line. They had an agreement in place with Carlos Correa before the team got scared off by his physical and walked away.

The result has been that the clubs of the Farhan Zaidi era have mostly been middling, sputtering by while cobbling together some decent role players, compiling some passable platoon pairings and oscillating almost every pitcher between the rotation and bullpen. Since Zaidi took over as president of baseball operations in November of 2018, the Giants have mostly hovered below .500, apart from a 107-win campaign in 2021 that now looks like a clear outlier.

Gabe Kapler won manager of the year for that surge, but the club fell to 81-81 in 2022 and then 79-83 last year. Before last year’s campaign was even finished, the club decided to move on from Kapler, as he was shown the door at the end of September.

Thankfully, a solution to their managerial vacancy fell from the sky, which was perhaps an omen of how the rest of their offseason would play out. Across the division and the state of California, rumors started to percolate out of San Diego about discord within the Padres organization. That club’s manager Bob Melvin had reportedly been clashing with president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. They initially planned to put their differences aside and continue working together, but the Giants came calling and asked to talk to Melvin, which the Padres agreed to.

Melvin was the manager of the Athletics when Zaidi was working in that front office, prior to joining the Giants. Presumably, the two were at least passingly familiar with each other from then and Melvin decided to skipper his ship up the coast to the Bay Area. Melvin’s contract with the Padres ran through 2024, as did Zaidi’s with the Giants. But the Giants decided to give the two some extra job security by extending both through 2026.

With the decisions made about the decision makers, the focus could turn to the roster. Starting pitching was a clear target after a season in which the club was quite nonchalant about moving guys between the rotation and the bullpen. Logan Webb, Alex Cobb and rookie Kyle Harrison were the only pitchers to work exclusively as starters, as Sean Manaea, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, Jakob Junis and others were oscillated between starting and relieving gigs, with Wood later expressing some frustration with that inconsistency.

That hodgepodge rotation got even thinner this offseason, with Manaea opting out of his deal and returning to the open market. Wood and Junis also became free agents while Cobb required hip surgery at the end of October, with a recovery timeline that would keep him out of action into the 2024 season.

Zaidi acknowledged early on that starting pitching would be a priority, as well as outfield defense. At shortstop, Zaidi said in October that rookie Marco Luciano would have the chance to be the everyday guy, though the club’s commitment to that plan would later prove to be weak.

At first, the club set its sights high, seemingly looking for the superstar it had failed to land in previous offseasons. All eyes were on Shohei Ohtani in the early parts of the offseason and the Giants stayed involved in that market the whole way through. They were apparently willing to offer Ohtani the same heavily-deferred contract that he eventually signed with the Dodgers, but it nonetheless went down as another miss.

And it wasn’t the only big whiff of the winter, as the club was also connected to targets like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Juan Soto, Cody Bellinger and others, but none of that group would be coming to San Francisco either.

In mid-December, they did make one notable strike. Jung Hoo Lee, a star in Korea, agreed to join the Giants on a six-year, $113MM deal. The 25-year-old outfielder is not a star in North America, at least not yet, but it was easily the biggest free agent deal of the Zaidi era. Previously, that was the $44MM over two years given to Carlos Rodón, who ended up opting out after just one year. It’s a bit of a gamble since there’s some uncertainty about whether Lee’s approach will translate to the majors, but his youth and athleticism could allow him to serve as a solid everyday center fielder and leadoff-hitting type.

As for the rotation, the club’s signing of Jordan Hicks sat as the most notable addition for a long time. In mid-January, he and the club agreed to a four-year, $44MM pact. That contract was roughly in line with expectations for Hicks as a reliever but it was a surprise to hear that the Giants were going to plug him into the rotation.

Hicks has youth on his side, still just 27 years old, but counting on him to provide bulk innings is no guarantee. He was a starter as a prospect but never logged more than 105 innings, which came back in 2017. Since reaching the majors, the Cardinals have mostly kept him in relief. They gave him a chance to try starting again in 2022 but he suffered a flexor strain in May and the club moved him back to the bullpen once he was healthy.

He has triple-digit heat but has been more passable than dominant, with a career ERA of 3.85 thus far. His 28.4% strikeout rate last year was strong but he still walked 11.2% of batters he faced. He compensates for those free passes with heaps of ground balls but it remains to be seen whether he can do that for multiple innings and for an extended stretch of time.

There was another significant rotation move that came in January, though one that wouldn’t be able to help in the short term. The Giants sent Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani to the Mariners in exchange for lefty Robbie Ray. The signing of Lee had given the Giants a bit of an outfield surplus, as Mike Yastrzemski would be pushed into the corner mix with Michael Conforto, Luis Matos and others. DeSclafani, meanwhile, had likely fallen out of the club’s plans as he had been injured for much of the previous two seasons and the younger Giants pitchers neared the majors.

Getting a former Cy Young winner for a couple of spare parts is a nice coup, in theory, but there are some asterisks. Ray underwent Tommy John and flexor tendon surgery in May of last year and won’t be available to them until the All-Star break, even in a best-case scenario. It’s also possible the Giants will remain on the hook for his contract, which runs through 2026. Ray can opt out after 2024 but he won’t be able to log many innings before making that decision, so he would likely have to be in great form for him to consider walking away from two years and $50MM.

In addition to the DeSclafani trade, the Giants further thinned out their rotation by sending Ross Stripling to the Athletics in early February. They got outfielder Jonah Cox in that deal but it was mostly a salary dump, as it saved them $9.25MM.

Just as Spring Training was about to begin, the Giants made a strong move to upgrade their lineup. Joc Pederson had been their primary designated hitter last year but he hit free agency and moved across the division to the Diamondbacks. The Giants replaced him by signing Jorge Soler to a three-year, $42MM deal. Soler is a streaky hitter but is one of the best power bats in the league when at his best.

He hit 48 home runs with the Royals back in 2019. That was the “juiced ball” season but that number led the American League and Kauffman Stadium is one of the hardest ballparks to hit it out of. He hit another 36 for the Marlins last year and opted out, eventually signing with the Giants. Oracle Park is also a tough venue for the long ball and no Giant has had a 30-homer season since Barry Bonds in 2004, a pretty stunning statistic. If Soler stays healthy and has one of his good years, he has a solid chance to break that streak.

As Spring Training ramped up, the Giants still hadn’t addressed their shortstop position. Though Zaidi initially said Luciano would get a chance to be the everyday guy there, the club was rumored to be looking around for other options throughout the winter. Franchise icon Brandon Crawford was out there in free agency but it seemed the Giants were ready to move on. In the last week of February, the Giants added Nick Ahmed on a minor league deal and Crawford joined the Cardinals.

He and Zaidi later spoke of the parting of ways, with Crawford expressing frustration at not coming back. A Bay Area native who grew up a Giants fan, Crawford has been synonymous with the franchise for his entire career. But Zaidi believed having such an iconic player on the bench wouldn’t be comfortable for the other players, so the club will proceed without Crawford for the first time since he was drafted in 2008.

Around the baseball world, a key storyline of the spring revolved around how many notable free agents remained unsigned in what turned out to be an incredibly slow offseason. The Giants were able to take advantage by signing third baseman Matt Chapman, who was pegged for a nine-figure deal at the start of the winter, for just three years and $54MM with opt-outs.

The Giants had J.D. Davis at the hot corner, but Chapman is a far superior defender and roughly comparable hitter. With an uncertain shortstop situation, it was a sensible swap for the club, especially at such a bargain rate.

The club then tried to shop Davis and his $6.9MM salary but found no takers. The free agent market had collapsed to such a point that solid infielders Gio Urshela and Amed Rosario each signed deals for just $1.5MM, which gave Davis little appeal at his price point. Arbitration salaries are not guaranteed if the sides go to a hearing, which Davis and the Giants had done, the player coming out victorious. But since it wasn’t guaranteed, the club was able to release him while only paying 30 days’ termination pay, which amounted to about $1.1MM.

This was obviously an unpleasant outcome for Davis, who eventually signed with the A’s for a guarantee of just $2.5MM. The unfair nature of the proceedings has seemingly been an inciting incident for the MLBPA, with players understandably upset by how things played out.

Despite all this activity surrounding the Giants, they arrived at the middle of March with the major target area of the rotation relatively unanswered. Cobb and Ray would be starting the season on the injured list, leaving the club with little certainty beyond ace Logan Webb. They had the converted reliever Hicks and then unproven young guys like Harrison, Triston Beck, Keaton Winn and Sean Hjelle. As Spring Training opened, Beck, Winn and Hjelle all battled injuries of varying degrees, highlighting the flimsiness of the group.

But they were able to take advantage of the weak free agent market once again, as they signed Blake Snell to a two-year, $62MM deal with an opt-out after the first season. Snell is the reigning National League Cy Young winner and was surely hoping for a massive nine-figure deal but was never able to land it.

There’s still plenty of uncertainty in the rotation picture but Snell makes it much stronger in the short term. And in the long term, it’s possible to imagine the season finishing with a San Francisco rotation consisting of Webb, Snell, Ray and Cobb, with one spot available for Hicks, Harrison or someone else. A lot has to go right for that to happen, but it’s wonderful to dream on for now.

In the end, the offseason could hardly have played out much better for Zaidi and the Giants. As mentioned, they have been incredibly averse to long-term free agent deals. Though they have made significant offers to players like Judge, Correa, Ohtani and others, they came into this winter having never given out more than the two-year, $44MM deal for Rodon. But they were able to add two Cy Young winners, one of the game’s best defenders, one of its best sluggers and a Korean star. And they did all of that without really breaking the bank in the present or in the future. The only guys who got more than three years, Lee and Hicks, are 25 and 27 years old, respectively. They are set to pay the competitive balance tax for the first time since 2017, but they are not far over the line and will face modest penalties as a “first-time” payor.

They still have some questions on the pitching staff and it seems as though the light-hitting Ahmed might end up as their everyday shortstop, but a lot of talent has been added to the roster this winter. They’re in for a battle since they share a division with the juggernaut Dodgers, the reigning N.L. champion Diamondbacks and the pesky Padres, but there’s more to be excited about than there was last year or even a six weeks ago.

Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies reinforced their rotation with a major extension and a major re-signing, but it was otherwise a relatively quiet offseason in the City of Brotherly Love.  After making the NLCS last year, have the Phillies done enough to book a return to the World Series?

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $35.57MM
Total spending: $183MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

In an offseason marked by several top-tier free agents lingering on the market deep into March, Aaron Nola came off the market by mid-November.  The Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals and Braves were among the teams who were at least somewhat linked to Nola, and reports suggested that Atlanta was the most fervent non-Phillies suitor.  However, Nola’s preference to remain with the Phillies led the righty to re-sign on a seven-year, $172MM pact, even though a larger offer was reportedly on the table from an unknown team.

It seems as though Philadelphia’s $172MM figure was at least close enough to this mystery offer that Nola opted to stay in a comfortable situation, and the length of the new contract could very well make Nola a Phillie for his entire career.  Chosen seventh overall by the Phils in the 2014 draft, Nola has become a true front-of-the-rotation talent, capable of delivering both big innings totals and quality results.

This isn’t to say that the deal isn’t without a few red flags.  Nola was more good than great in 2023, with a 4.46 ERA and a near-average 38.5% hard-hit ball rate.  That particular metric is important for Nola given his tendency to allow a lot of barrels, so batters have been able to tag the veteran for a lot of home runs when they’re able to truly square up on the ball.  Nola’s curveball was also just an average pitch in 2023, after years of being at least a plus offering and sometimes one of the more effective pitches in the sport.

Nola’s strikeout rate was still above average, and for the third straight season he continued to be one of baseball’s best at limiting walks.  It also wouldn’t have been easy for the Phillies to fill all of the innings that the durable Nola has brought to the rotation, not to mention his behind-the-scenes status as a clubhouse leader.  Though Philadelphia checked in with Sonny Gray as a potential alternate if Nola went elsewhere, both Nola and the Phillies preferred the familiarity of their longtime relationship.

Philadelphia’s other big rotation investment didn’t come until Spring Training, and it again involved the Phillies locking up an in-house name.  Zack Wheeler is entering the final season of the five-year, $118MM contract he signed in December 2019, but he’ll now continue his Phillies tenure after signing a three-year, $126MM extension that begins with the 2025 campaign.  The new deal keeps Wheeler in the fold through his age-37 season, though he hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down, as he finished sixth in NL Cy Young Award voting last year.

Neither president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski or owner John Middleton have been very hesitant about spending, and the Nola/Wheeler contracts continue the Phillies’ simple (but effective) strategy of upgrading the roster via high-priced, name-brand talent.  The result has been an NL pennant in 2022 and an NLCS appearance in 2023, as the Phillies exceeded the luxury tax in both seasons.  Even with Wheeler’s extension not going onto the books until next year, RosterResource estimates a $261.8MM tax number for the Phillies in 2024, again putting the team over not just the $237MM tax threshold but also the $257MM second penalty tier.

The tax considerations could explain why the Phillies didn’t do all that much this winter, though there’s also the basic fact that the roster is largely set.  For instance, the door seemed to close on a reunion with Rhys Hoskins when the Phillies announced that Bryce Harper would be the everyday first baseman in 2024 and beyond.  With Harper now at first base and Kyle Schwarber as the full-time DH, Hoskins (who missed all of 2023 due to a torn ACL) was the odd man out, and he instead signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers.

Wheeler and Nola headline a rotation that also includes Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez, and the everyday lineup also looked more or less complete until the news broke in early February that Brandon Marsh would be sidelined for 3-4 weeks in the aftermath of arthroscopic knee surgery.  Marsh is back playing Spring Training games and should be ready for Opening Day, though it probably isn’t a coincidence that about a week after Marsh’s surgery was announced, Whit Merrifield was signed to a one-year, $8MM guarantee.

Merrifield’s unusual 2023 season included a spot on the AL All-Star team, but also a brutal second-half slump that saw him hit only .212/.250/.288 over his last 196 plate appearances.  The cold streak cost Merrifield playing time in the Blue Jays’ lineup, and it wasn’t a surprise that both Merrifield and the Jays declined their ends of the veteran’s $18MM mutual option for the 2024 season.

As he enters his age-35 season, the right-handed hitting Merrifield provides some platoon depth behind the lefty-swinging Bryson Stott (at second base) and Marsh (in left field).  There’s a chance Merrifield could get more playing time in left field if Marsh is needed in center field, as while Philadelphia would love to see defensive standout Johan Rojas win the everyday center field job, Rojas has looked overmatched at the plate in Spring Training.  Rojas was more than respectable (.302/.342/.430) over his first 164 big league PA in 2023, though since he doesn’t have any Triple-A experience, the Phillies might choose to give Rojas a bit more time in the minors to begin the season in order to get his bat on track.

Jordan Luplow was also brought into spring camp on a minors deal, and Luplow joins David Dahl (another non-roster signing), Cristian Pache, and Jake Cave as depth options.  Pache and Cave are both out of minor league options, which creates an interesting decision for the Phils as they decide who will earn the backup outfield spot on the Opening Day roster.

Dombrowski said in December that the team would look for additions “more around the edges” of the roster, considering how the team was lacking in major question marks after Nola was re-signed.  This approach was manifested in the low-cost signings of Spencer Turnbull and Kolby Allard, who provide some depth to the rotation and bullpen mix.  Additionally, Max Castillo was claimed off waivers and Michael Rucker was acquired in a deal with the Cubs.

This was pretty much it as far as bullpen additions, even though the closer role seemed to open up when Craig Kimbrel left in free agency.  Philadelphia reportedly looked into Robert Stephenson, Jordan Hicks, Phil Maton, and Jakob Junis before all four pitchers signed elsewhere, and nothing much seemed to materialize between the Phils and Josh Hader, despite a lot of speculation early in the offseason that Hader was a natural fit for a team in need of ninth-inning help.

Strikeout machine Jose Alvarado now looks like the favorite for the closer’s job, though he had some injury problems in 2023 and has long struggled to limit walks.  Any of Gregory Soto, Jeff Hoffman, Seranthony Dominguez, or Orion Kerkering could get save chances within the somewhat fluid Phillies bullpen situation, and the team would particularly love to see the hard-throwing Kerkering emerge as a legitimate bullpen weapon.  Kerkering still only has two seasons of pro experience, however, and the rookie was sidelined for a good chunk of Spring Training due to the flu.

There are enough interesting options on hand that the Phillies might be comfortable with their bullpen for now.  However, it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see the Phillies add another relief arm once teams start making roster cuts late in Spring Training, and Dombrowski might well seek out more high-leverage help closer to the trade deadline.

In terms of other big moves on the offseason radar, the Phils were among the most serious suitors for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as the team reportedly offered the Japanese phenom a 12-year contract.  Yamamoto ended up signing with the Dodgers for $325MM over a 12-year term, so it seems like the Phillies at least got themselves in the ballpark even if the financial terms of their offer are still unknown.

Yamamoto’s age (25), obvious talent, and the Phillies’ desire to increase their presence in the Japanese market combined to generate the aggressive bid, as this same perfect storm didn’t exist for any other big names.  Philadelphia was only very loosely linked to the Juan Soto trade talks or to Cody Bellinger’s free agent market, and the club had some limited (and perhaps just due diligence) interest in Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.  Since Montgomery is still without a team this close to Opening Day, the Phillies could technically still emerge as a bidder at the eleventh hour, even it doesn’t seem too likely that the Phils would offer the kind of long-term contract Montgomery was apparently still seeking as recently as two weeks ago.

The Phillies also added another year onto manager Rob Thomson’s contract, continuing the offseason’s overall “running it back” theme.  Standing pat is justifiable considering how successful Philadelphia has been in the last two seasons, and there is also some reason to believe the Phillies could be even better.  Harper is now fully healthy after two injury-marred seasons, and younger players like Stott, Marsh, Sanchez, Rojas and/or Kerkering could further emerge with more Major League playing time under their belts.  The real test will come in October when the Phillies try to take that final step towards a championship, and as presently constructed, it looks like Philadelphia should again be in contention.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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The Dodgers stole all the headlines this offseason, as they gave out multiple record-breaking deals, traded for an ace and did a bunch of other stuff as well.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $162.9MM (counting Ohtani’s salary as the league-adjusted $46MM; doesn’t include posting fee for Yamamoto)
Total spending: $1.096 billion (adjusting Ohtani’s guarantee to present day value of $460MM makes this number $756.4MM)

Option Decisions

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

The Dodgers have already been a powerhouse team for a long time, having won the National League West in 10 of the past 11 seasons. The one exception was 2021, when they won 106 games but somehow were one shy of a surprising 107-win Giants club.

But they still came into this winter hungry for improvements. That 11-year stretch of playoff appearances only led to one World Series title, which was in the shortened 2020 season. The 2023 season ended unpleasantly, despite the club winning 100 games and earning another division title. Their rotation was largely decimated by injuries as the season wore on and they were quickly swept by the Diamondbacks in the NLDS.

With the club looking to make a bold splash and this winter featuring one of the most anticipated free agents of all time, there were many who expected a pairing between the Dodgers and Shohei Ohtani. In fact, it’s something that has been expected for even longer than that.

When Ohtani initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers weren’t a perfect fit since the National League did not yet have the designated hitter, which led Ohtani to pick the Angels. But the NL got the DH in 2022, which started a countdown for many people, just waiting for the two-way superstar’s free agency.

The Dodgers were obviously going to be interested but also made their intentions clear by deciding not to issue a qualifying offer to J.D. Martinez. Under normal circumstances, he would have warranted one, given his strong 33-homer campaign in 2023. But if he had accepted, it would have clogged up the designated hitter spot they wanted to put Ohtani into, so they didn’t risk it.

It probably shouldn’t have been surprising that a player as unique as Ohtani ended up having one of the most unique free agencies. From the outset, it was marked by a strange insistence on secrecy, to the point that clubs would reportedly hurt their chances of signing him if they acknowledged that they were trying to do so. Perhaps the most absurd example of this was when Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins missed the winter meetings and met with reporters via Zoom but wouldn’t tell them he was in Florida, showing Ohtani the club’s Dunedin complex.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts seemed to break protocol when he admitted that he and his club had recently met with Ohtani. Given the cloak-and-dagger nature of the Ohtani free agency and the lack of real information, it seemed genuinely possible that this would actually have a negative impact on the club’s chances of getting the deal done. There was even more worry when there were reports that Ohtani was on a plane to sign with the Blue Jays, but those eventually proved to be inaccurate. The long-awaited Ohtani-Dodgers pairing finally got done with a massive 10-year, $700MM deal.

Or did it? The unicorn player with the bizarre free agency apparently couldn’t sign a normal contract. After news of the deal landed, reports quickly emerged that put the shocking numbers into more context. Despite the $700M price tag, there was some fine print.

Ohtani will actually only make $2MM in each season of the deal and then get $68MM annually, without interest, in the 10 years following the expiration of the deal. He will still get $700MM, but over 20 years instead of 10. Deferred money reduces the present day value of the deal to $46MM annually in the eyes of the league and $43.8MM from the perspective of the MLBPA. Even with those caveats, the approximate $460MM guarantee is still the largest in MLB history. Even the lower of the two AAV numbers puts Ohtani ahead of Max Scherzer for the largest of all-time.

This was perceived by many fans as a way for the club to “dodge” the luxury tax, but MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes argued otherwise at the time. The $46MM competitive balance tax hit the Dodgers will get for Ohtani was in line with most expectations coming into the winter. The $700MM number isn’t truly real, but it’s helpful for the agents to describe it that way.

Regardless of the optics, Ohtani reportedly suggested the structure to multiple teams. The Giants and Blue Jays were willing to pay it, just like the Dodgers, but the Angels were not. The appeal from the player’s perspective is obvious. The $2MM salary is obviously paltry by baseball standards but Ohtani won’t be starving as he has millions coming in via endorsements every year. By kicking his payments down the road, he can ensure the club has more resources to put a winning team around him. And the contract reportedly has language that makes sure they use their savings towards making the club as competitive as possible.

They certainly held up their end of the bargain with the remainder of this offseason. As mentioned, the club’s rotation was snakebit last year. Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin both had surgery last year and couldn’t be counted on to start 2024 healthy. Walker Buehler’s Tommy John was back in 2022 but he still missed all of 2023 and will be handled with care this year. Lance Lynn, Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw all hit free agency after 2023, making starting pitching an obvious priority for the club.

Kershaw had hit free agency twice before and re-signed with the club but the Dodgers couldn’t rely on the same thing playing out this winter. Kershaw announced in early November that he had undergone shoulder surgery and wouldn’t be able to return until some point this summer. Ohtani wasn’t going to help either, as he underwent some kind of UCL surgery in September and will be limited to hitting only in 2024.

Despite already giving out a record-setting deal, the Dodgers seemed prepared for more, casting a wide net in their search for starting pitching. Throughout the winter, they were connected to high-profile free agents like Blake Snell and Aaron Nola, mid-range guys like Lucas Giolito and Seth Lugo, as well as trade candidates like Dylan Cease, Corbin Burnes and Jesús Luzardo.

Their first big rotation strike came via the trade market, as the Dodgers were able to land Tyler Glasnow from the Rays. With Tampa looking to cut payroll, the Dodgers took on both Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot, sending younger players Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca the other way.

Glasnow has struggled to stay healthy in his career but has pitched at an ace level when healthy. He overcame a lengthy Tommy John absence in 2023, setting a new career high with 120 major league innings, putting up a 3.53 earned run average in the process. The Dodgers were clearly not scared by the past health issues, as the deal they made with the Rays was conditional on getting an extension done with Glasnow, which they eventually did. The combination of this year’s salary and the four they added on means they are committed to him for five years and $136.5MM.

But they weren’t done there. The market around Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto seemed to get hotter and hotter as the winter nights grew darker. That was a testament not only to his incredible skills but also his age. It’s hard to find an ace in free agency but it’s almost unheard of to get a 25-year-old ace. He comes with no experience in the big leagues but a 1.82 ERA over his seven NPB seasons and little doubt about his ability to handle the show (rough debut notwithstanding).

Due to that rarity, multiple clubs were willing to go over the $300MM mark to land Yamamoto, but the Dodgers ultimately sealed it with a 12-year, $325MM deal. But since Yamamoto had been subject to the posting system, the Dodgers will also have to pay a fee to the Orix Buffaloes of Nippon Professional Baseball. Such fees are calculated as a percentage of the deal, so a massive deal means massive fees. This contract led to a $51MM posting fee for the Buffaloes, meaning the Dodgers were effectively paying $376MM to get Yamamoto. Factoring in the club’s luxury tax status means the outlay is even higher. Even before that posting fee, it was the largest guarantee ever given to a pitcher not named Ohtani.

They had one more move to remake their rotation, but it was far more modest than the Glasnow or Yamamoto acquisitions. They signed lefty James Paxton to a one-year deal. It was initially reported an an $11MM guarantee but was later changed to $7MM with incentives. The Dodgers apparently adjusted it down after Paxton’s physical, though they didn’t find anything to scuttle it entirely. Paxton has been oft-injured in recent years, hardly pitching at all from 2020 to 2022, but was able to make 19 starts for the Red Sox last year.

On the position player side of things, the most surprising developments surrounded Mookie Betts. Having spent the vast majority of his career in right field, the Dodgers moved him to the middle infield last year. He came up as a second baseman and had dabbled at that position earlier in his major league career, but the club was evidently impressed enough to make him their everyday guy at the keystone coming into 2024. More on that later.

With Betts moving to the infield, there was room for additions in the outfield. Jason Heyward was re-signed to a one-year deal, but he was effectively replacing himself. He had a nice bounceback for the Dodgers in 2023, being limited to a strong-side platoon role. The Dodgers were frequently connected to Teoscar Hernandez and were able to get him to sign a one-year deal as well, adding yet another potent bat to their lineup.

With Hernandez and Heyward set to join an outfield mix with James Outman, Margot started to seem a bit unnecessary. He could platoon with Heyward but they also had Chris Taylor on hand for that. They eventually decided to send Margot to the Twins and use the $4MM they saved to sign Enrique Hernandez instead. He can also hit from the right side and play the outfield, but his ability to play the infield gave them a bit of extra cover for Betts and third baseman Max Muncy.

But the position player mix had one more twist to come in spring. The Dodgers planned on having Gavin Lux, who missed all of 2023 due to a knee injury, as their everyday shortstop. But he struggled with some consistency in his throws this spring, an issue he’s had in the past. The Dodgers quickly decided to flip Betts and Lux, a move that Roberts described as “permanent for now.”

This put the Dodgers in the wild position of having committed over a billion dollars this winter (kind of) but somehow ending up with a 31-year-old right fielder as their everyday shortstop. Betts briefly played the position last year, getting into 16 games. That’s already the most ever games at the position for a guy after winning multiple Gold Gloves in the outfield, per Sarah Langs of MLB, highlighting how unprecedented this experiment is.

Many fans grew tired of hearing about the Dodgers this winter, as the club was incredibly active while many others sat on their hands. But the fact is that they were doing so many interesting things that it was hard to look away. No one had ever given a free agent $500MM before, let alone $600MM or $700MM. It turns out the Dodgers didn’t really do any of those either, but the bizarre deferral structure of Ohtani’s deal was itself interesting and unprecedented. They gave the largest guarantee ever to a pitcher that isn’t a two-way player. And they gave it to a guy with no major league experience. They put their MVP candidate right fielder at shortstop.

They did all of that and more, adding multiple bats and arms to a club that has already been a dominant force for over a decade. After getting Ohtani and making all of these other moves, the expectations will be even higher from now on. For the next 10 years, the club has Ohtani on the roster and is only paying him $2MM per year, a pittance in this league. All the chips are on the table and anything short of a World Series in that time will be counted by many as a failure.

Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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Between a new owner, a new lease at Camden Yards, and one of the offseason’s biggest trades, the Orioles made plenty of news on and off the field this winter.  Now the question is whether the reigning AL East champions can take the next step forward to challenge for a World Series title.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $13MM
Total spending: $13MM

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Orioles entered the winter with pretty clear needs at the top of their rotation and bullpen.  Since Felix Bautista’s recovery from Tommy John surgery will sideline the closer for the entire season, the O’s targeted some of the biggest names in the free agent relief market (such as Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks, Robert Stephenson, and Aroldis Chapman) before finalizing a one-year, $13MM deal with Craig Kimbrel.

The veteran closer brings a possible Cooperstown-worthy resume and plenty of experience to the back to the Orioles’ pen, where Kimbrel will team with setup men Yennier Cano and Danny Coulombe to hopefully get close to replicating the lockdown dominance of the Bautista-led 2023 relief corps.  Of course, some red flags are apparent — Kimbrel faded down the stretch in both 2021 and 2022, and he had a couple of ill-timed blowups when pitching for the Phillies in last year’s NLCS.  The righty is also entering his age-36 season, and is prone to allowing walks and hard contact.

An argument could be made that Baltimore could have aimed a little higher or gone with someone a bit steadier than Kimbrel, though with Bautista ostensibly returning in 2025, GM Mike Elias might not have wanted to make too lengthy of a commitment to a new reliever.  As it stands, Kimbrel’s $13MM guarantee still represents the largest amount of money the O’s have given to a player since Elias took over the front office after the 2018 season.

While the Orioles’ lengthy rebuild precluded a lot of major spending, Elias continued to take a relatively measured approach to the payroll this offseason, even in the wake of a 101-win performance.  While the O’s checked in on such notable free agents as Hader or Aaron Nola, the team mostly focused on the trade market to address its pitching needs.  There were plenty of rumors linking the Orioles to top names like Dylan Cease or Jesus Luzardo, but amidst all these reports, Baltimore eventually landed another top trade candidate.

Corbin Burnes has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball over the last four seasons, and his acquisition instantly solves the Orioles’ desire for a frontline ace.  Since Burnes is a free agent following the 2024 campaign, the trade also represents another shorter-term move for Elias — Burnes avoided arbitration with the Brewers by agreeing to a $15,637,500 salary, making him only slightly pricier than Kimbrel.

Trading for Burnes was a clear win-now move for the O’s, and a deal made possible by the team’s seemingly bottomless minor league talent pool.  The Brewers came away with a potential shortstop of the future in Joey Ortiz, an intriguing rotation or bullpen candidate in DL Hall, and the 34th overall pick in the 2024 draft (the Orioles’ selection in Competitive Balance Round A, which are the only types of picks that can be traded).  This is a pretty significant trade package, yet from Baltimore’s perspective, even a top-100 prospect like Ortiz is expendable considering how the Orioles’ infield of the future looks to already be in place.

Between Jordan Westburg, reigning AL Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson, and soon-to-debut star prospect Jackson Holliday, the Orioles may have second base, third base, and shortstop locked up for the better part of the next decade.  This doesn’t even count Coby Mayo or Connor Norby knocking on the door of the big leagues, or incumbent utilitymen Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo still on hand as perhaps overqualified bench depth.

The outfield is also crowded.  Anthony Santander (a free agent next winter), Cedric Mullins, and Austin Hays (free agents in the 2025-26 offseason) have Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, and Kyle Stowers pushing for playing time right now, let alone looming to eventually supplant the more experienced players as the Orioles’ starting outfield.

If the O’s were still rebuilding, it is easy to imagine a world where any of Santander, Mullins, Hays, Urias, or Mateo have been traded by now to let the kids play.  However, the Orioles are both trying to win in 2024 and not hamper the development of any of their up-and-comers.  That means someone like Stowers or Kjerstad might start the year at Triple-A in order to get regular at-bats rather than sporadic playing time in the majors, and the Orioles could use their bench spots for veterans more accustomed to part-time roles.

This could mean in-house names like Urias, Mateo, Terrin Vavra, and Ryan McKenna, or a familiar face back in the fold like Tyler Nevin (re-acquired from the Tigers in a January trade).  Baltimore also dealt for Nick Maton and signed Kolten Wong and Michael Perez to minor league deals, further adding depth just in case the young core needs a bit more seasoning.

All of this depth makes it easy to see how more trades could be coming at the deadline or earlier, once the Orioles have a better sense of their needs or which of their prospects may or may not be ready for prime time.  It isn’t out of the question that Elias could move earlier to obtain more pitching help, considering how Baltimore already has a couple of starters set to begin the season on the injured list.

Kyle Bradish emerged as the Orioles’ top hurler last year, yet his status is in question after an MRI revealed a sprain in his right UCL in February.  Bradish received a PRP injection and has been slowly building his arm up over the last five weeks, with decent progress to date but still a lot of uncertainty over when (or even if) he’ll be able to make a proper return this season.  John Means will also be sidelined for perhaps the first month of the season, as soreness in his surgically repaired elbow last October delayed Means’ offseason ramp-up work.

With two members of the projected rotation down, Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, and Dean Kremer will be joined by Cole Irvin and Tyler Wells for the time being.  Minor league signing Julio Teheran, waiver claim Tucker Davidson, trade acquisition Jonathan Heasley or Bruce Zimmermann figure to work as the top depth options before the Orioles think about dipping into their starting pitching prospect pool (i.e. Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott, Seth Johnson).

Michael Lorenzen and James Paxton were on the team’s radar as shorter-term signing options, and Mike Clevinger remains unsigned as a potential one-year stopgap.  Beyond Baltimore’s flirtation with Nola, there wasn’t much of a sense that the Orioles were going to splurge on a big free agent arm, so Jordan Montgomery still doesn’t seem all that likely of a possibility even though Montgomery is still available as Opening Day nears.

The rotation picture could gain clarity once more is known about Bradish or Means’ recoveries, and things will look more stable if Rodriguez takes another step forward in his second MLB season.  However, the question remains — could the Orioles have done more to shore up their pitching staff?  Even with the prohibitive costs of pitching (either via signing or trade) in mind, adding Burnes but losing Bradish and Means more or less leaves the O’s in the same place rotation-wise as they were at the end of 2023.

It may be too soon to second-guess Elias’ decisions given that more moves could still be made, and that the roster on the whole still looks very capable of contending.  It is also very much worth noting that the Orioles have increased spending, as their projected payroll (as per RosterResource) of $96.8MM is still a modest total in comparison to the rest of the league yet also a big jump from Baltimore’s $60.9MM payroll on Opening Day 2023.

Perhaps the most intriguing element of the Orioles’ season is whether or not the impending ownership change could give the front office some immediate extra spending capacity.  David Rubenstein would hardly be the first new owner to want to make a splash upon buying a team, and since the billionaire’s investment group could be fully approved to buy the Orioles within even the next few weeks, Rubenstein might well be interested in giving Elias the green light to be more aggressive at the deadline.  Boosting spending to even league-average levels would create a lot of extra spending capacity for the O’s to add talent, or (perhaps more importantly) start signing some of their cornerstone young players to extensions.

Even considering the ailing health of majority owner Peter Angelos, the legal drama between members of the Angelos family, and team chairman John Angelos’ cautionary statements about spending, it still counted as a surprise when reports emerged in January that the Orioles were being sold.  This news broke just as the O’s were finalizing a new lease agreement with state and city officials about remaining at Camden Yards, and while this new lease technically only runs for the next 15 years, at least another 15 years could be added to the deal if the franchise and Maryland officials can work out (prior to December 31, 2027) a development plan for a “ballpark village” type of project around Camden Yards.

The ownership change only cements the new era that was already dawning for the team in terms of the on-field product.  Baltimore fans had to endure a lot over the Orioles’ multi-year rebuilding period, but things couldn’t look much better for the fanbase over both the long term and in the immediate future.  The O’s look like legitimate World Series contenders even with the remaining questions in the pitching staff, and some work at the deadline might patch those few remaining holes.

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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The Pirates’ ongoing rebuild showed some encouraging signs last year but it didn’t prompt the front office to go out and win the offseason. They made some modest additions as their focus remains clearly on the future, but did sign another core member of their club to a sizable extension.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $33.2MM (not including Fleming or Sanchez)
Total spending: $33.2MM (not including Fleming or Sanchez)

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

2023 was the fifth straight losing season for the Bucs, but they at least showed some hints that maybe the rebuild was nearing its end. They started out hot and were leading the division for a time, holding that spot until the middle of June. They eventually faded and finished the year at 76-86, not too shabby, especially considering they were without shortstop Oneil Cruz for the vast majority of the season.

Some fans may have hoped for that semi-surge to be followed by an aggressive winter, but it ended up being fairly modest, at least in terms of additions. Starting pitching was a clear priority coming into the offseason after the Pittsburgh rotation posted a collective earned run average of 4.88 in 2023. That need only grew when Johan Oviedo required Tommy John surgery in November, putting him out of action for the entire 2024 season.

The Bucs seemed to cast a fairly wide net in their pursuits of starting pitching, though they were mostly connected to guys who could be had fairly cheaply. Jack Flaherty was a target and he could have perhaps been signed for a modest one-year “prove it” deal, but he eventually got it from the Tigers instead. Yariel Rodríguez and Shota Imanaga had plenty of interest but were somewhat unproven. The Bucs seemed to sniff around, but Rodríguez got a five-year, $32MM deal from the Jays, with a modest $6.4MM average annual value. There were rumors Imanaga could get $100MM, but his market softened and the Bucs got involved, though he ended up settling for four years and $53MM from the Cubs. They were also interested in the controllable pitchers of the Marlins, particularly Edward Cabrera, but nothing got done there either. Those talks carried into spring training, but Cabrera is now dealing with a shoulder issue. Whether that impacted talks isn’t known, but it’s certainly plausible.

In the end, the Pirates added a couple of veterans at a modest cost. Martín Pérez was signed to a one-year, $8MM deal,while Marco Gonzales was acquired via trade. Gonzales is making a salary of $12MM this year but will only be paid $3MM by the Pirates, through convoluted means that are explained by here by Ethan Hullihen of Bucs On Deck.

Those two could perhaps add some veteran stability to a fairly young and inexperienced rotation, but neither is coming off an especially strong season. Pérez had a 4.98 ERA as a starter for the Rangers and got bumped to the bullpen late in the year. Gonzales required surgery for a nerve issue in his forearm after 10 starts with a 5.22 ERA.

The Pirates seemed set at catcher coming into the winter, as prospects Endy Rodríguez and Henry Davis both cracked the major leagues last year. But similar to the Oviedo situation, it was reported in December that Rodríguez would need UCL surgery and miss the entire 2024 season.

Less than two weeks before that news came out, the club had signed Ali Sánchez to a major league deal, perhaps indicating they already suspected the Rodríguez news was coming. Regardless, they had interest in Gary Sánchez as well but eventually added Yasmani Grandal on a modest deal to bolster the depth with Rodríguez out.

Davis didn’t catch much last year, only spending two innings behind the plate as Rodríguez handled the bulk of the work. Davis spent far more time in right field, as it seemed the organization had a bit more faith in the defensive abilities of Rodríguez. But the injury has forced Davis to don the tools of ignorance again this year. He has seemed to handle himself well in spring, both behind the dish and standing beside it, having hit .306/.381/.694. If he succeeds back there all year, the club may have a decision to make once Rodríguez is healthy, though many clubs split time between two different catchers these days.

First base was also a target, as Carlos Santana had most of the playing time there last year, but he was traded to the Brewers at the deadline. The club had some reported interest in bringing Santana back and was also connected to Josh Naylor of the Guardians, but they nabbed Rowdy Tellez to be their primary first baseman. He’s coming off a down year but hit 35 homers in 2022, so he’s a fine bounceback pickup at $3.2MM.

They also brought back franchise icon Andrew McCutchen for $5MM to serve as a designated hitter and veteran leader. He’s been quite open about his desire to continue playing in Pittsburgh for the rest of his career so it wasn’t a surprise to see the two sides link up an another one-year pact. The next home run he hits will be the 300th of his career, so Bucs fans will have a fun milestone chase early in the season.

Elsewhere, the Pittsburgh bolstered its bullpen with a surprising $10.5MM splash on Aroldis Chapman, which actually counts as their largest free agent deal of the winter. He should be able to lengthen the bullpen after a return to form in 2023. The Pirates will surely be happy if Chapman ends up part of a push for contention late in the year, but if that doesn’t happen, they could hope to follow the path of Kansas City. The Royals signed Chapman last year and flipped him to the Rangers at the deadline, netting Cole Ragans in return. He’s earning nearly three times as much in 2024 as he did in 2023, so he won’t be quite the bargain for trade partners this time around, but high-end relief pitching is always in demand regardless.

As the slow offseason left various players looking for jobs well into February and even into March, the Pirates were able to take advantage by signing Michael A. Taylor for a modest $4MM sum. He was reportedly looking to match Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader, who each got $10.5MM, but he was one of many players who got boxed out by the drying up of spending in recent months.

The Bucs should be the beneficiary of Taylor’s poor fortune, as he’ll give them an elite defensive center fielder who will strike out a bunch but also likely pop a few home runs. By having former center fielders Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski in the corners, they could have strong defense in all three spots with regularity.

The most significant deal of the winter was for a player already on the roster, as the Pirates signed Mitch Keller to a five-year extension worth $77MM. He already had agreed to a $5.4425MM salary for 2024, which was maintained as part of the extension, so it added four years and $71.5575MM in new money. Keller was slated for free agency after 2025, so it extended the club’s window of control by three years.

That has been the M.O. for the Bucs in recent years. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the largest deals given out by the club since Ben Cherington took over as general manager in November of 2019 have all been extensions. Bryan Reynolds got a two-year, $13.5MM deal to avoid arbitration before eventually signing his seven-year, $100MM deal. Ke’Bryan Hayes got $70MM over eight years and now Keller is signed long-term as well. Meanwhile, they haven’t signed any free agent to a multi-year deal, with Chapman’s $10.5MM being the largest deal given on a one-year pact.

In a sense, that shows that the club has stayed the course. They have been building for the future for a long time, and their priorities are shown in that disparity of investment. Cherington said in December that he anticipated a payroll increase relative to last year, which has technically come to fruition. RosterResource lists this year’s payroll at $85MM. That’s 29th in the league, ahead of only the Athletics, but Cot’s Baseball Contracts had the Bucs at just $73MM last year.

The focus is still on the future, and the fortunes of the club will be largely be written by those already in the system. The club has shown their faith in Reynolds, Hayes and Keller as they continue to monitor Cruz, Davis, Rodríguez and Suwinski. Unproven players like Jared Triolo, Paul Skenes, Quinn Priester, Bubba Chandler, Jared Jones, Termarr Johnson and others could factor into the mix this year or in the near future. Skenes, last year’s No. 1 overall draft pick, seems likely to join Keller, Perez and Gonzales in the rotation as soon as this summer.

The Pirates are still arguably the weakest team in the National League Central. Both the Projected Standings at FanGraphs and the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus have them finishing in the basement. But the division is fairly wide open and doesn’t have a clear favorite, which means there’s a path for the Pirates if things break right, either this year or down the line.

The club will likely have a different offseason someday, when they truly feel contention is at hand. But for now, it’s been another winter of modest investment in the present and a heavy focus on the future.

31 Veterans With Opt-Out Opportunities Looming This Week

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One of the provisions in that 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement is uniform opt-out opportunities for Article XX(B) free agents on minor league deals. An Article XX(B) free agent is one with at least six years of service time who finished the previous season on a major league roster or injured list. Any such player who signs a minor league deal more than ten days prior to Opening Day can opt out of that deal at three points if they haven’t been added to the 40-man roster: five days before Opening Day, May 1 and June 1.

The first uniform opt-out date on this year’s calendar falls Friday at 1pm CT. Any player can trigger his out clause at that point, and the team will subsequently be given a 48-hour window to either add him to the roster or release him. With many clubs around the league dealing with spring injuries, some of these players should be able to find opportunities elsewhere if they can’t find it with their current organization. Their current clubs can prevent them from opting out by giving them a roster spot, but that may involve cutting someone else.

Angels: OF Jake Marisnick, LHP Drew Pomeranz

Marisnick, 33 this month, is a right-handed-hitting fourth outfielder with a plus glove and questionable bat. He can hold his own against right-handed pitching (career .237/.293/.417, 93 wRC+) but is typically overmatched by righties (.223/.274/.365, 74 wRC+). He’s having a huge spring, but the Angels already have Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, Mickey Moniak, Aaron Hicks and Jo Adell on the 40-man roster.

The 35-year-old Pomeranz was a good starter from 2016-17 and a dominant reliever from 2019-21, but he didn’t pitch in 2022-23 due to arm injuries. He’s pitched 6 2/3 innings with the Angels this spring with middling results.

Blue Jays: 3B/2B Eduardo Escobar, 1B Joey Votto

A poor season between the Mets and Angels last year set the stage for the 35-year-old Escobar to take a minor league deal. He’s long been a productive MLB hitter and even topped 30 homers back in 2019, but Escobar’s now in his mid-30s and struggling through an ugly spring while trying to win a spot in a crowded infield mix also featuring Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, Ernie Clement and Davis Schneider.

Votto, 40, has been connected the Blue Jays seemingly forever due to his Canadian roots. He finally suited up for the Jays after agreeing to a minor league deal and homered in his first at-bat of camp. He’s had a lackluster showing at the plate in each of the past two MLB seasons, however.

Cubs: 1B/OF Garrett Cooper, RHP Carl Edwards Jr., OF David Peralta

An underrated hitter for years in Miami, Cooper slashed .274/.350/.444 in nearly 1300 plate appearances from 2019-22 before a poorly timed down showing in 2023’s walk year. He’s hitting quite well in spring training, and the Cubs don’t have a proven option at first base — though they’re understandably high on 26-year-old trade acquisition Michael Busch.

Edwards had a nice 2022 season with the Nats and posted a solid ERA in 2023 but did so with dismal K-BB numbers. He’s competing for a spot in an uncharacteristically crowded Cubs bullpen and could be squeezed out. The 32-year-old pitched for the Cubs from 2015-19, so Chicago brass knows him well. From 2022-23 in D.C., he posted a 3.07 ERA but a middling 20% strikeout rate against a 10.5% walk rate.

Peralta, 36, has a trio of hits and a walk in ten plate appearances this spring. He was an above-average hitter with the D-backs every season from 2017-20 but has been less consistent of late. He’s a left-handed hitter who’s long had glaring platoon splits and is limited to the outfield corners.

Diamondbacks: SS Elvis Andrus

Andrus is 35 but can still pick it at shortstop or second base. His once above-average speed has faded to the 30th percentile of MLB players, per Statcast, but his range at short remains excellent. Andrus hit .251/.304/.358 (81 wRC+) for the White Sox in 2023 and only has one year of above-average offense (2022) in the past six seasons.

Guardians: RHP Carlos Carrasco

Old friend Cookie Carrasco is fighting for the fifth spot in the Guardians’ rotation, and news of Gavin Williams’ season-opening stint on the injured list could further open the door for the 36-year-old (37 on Thursday) to make the team. Carrasco was torched for a 6.80 ERA with the 2023 Mets. He allowed 1.80 homers per nine frames through 90 innings, with alarming batted-ball metrics (91.5 mph average exit velocity, 48.2% hard-hit rate, 10.7% barrel rate). He was a solid mid-rotation arm as recently as 2022, when he tossed 152 innings of 3.97 ERA ball with sharp strikeout and walk rates.

Marlins: C Curt Casali

The veteran Casali has batted .201/.311/.315 over the past three big league seasons — a 78 wRC+ in 503 plate appearances. The 35-year-old is off to a rough start in camp and is a long shot to unseat defensive-minded Nick Fortes or Christian Bethancourt, both of whom are already on the 40-man roster.

Mets: 1B/DH Ji Man Choi

From 2017-22, Choi hit .254/.363/.465 (130 wRC+) against right-handed pitching. He walked at a 14.4% clip when holding the platoon advantage and fanned at a higher-than-average but still-manageable 24.1% rate. Lefties have always had Choi’s number, however, and his overall production cratered in 2023 while he dealt with Achilles and ribcage injuries. He’s fighting for a bench spot in New York alongside DJ Stewart and others.

Nationals: RHP Matt Barnes, OF Eddie Rosario, OF Jesse Winker

Barnes was an All-Star closer with the Red Sox in 2021 and briefly one of the game’s most dominant relievers, fanning more than 40% of his opponents for the bulk of that season. He wore down beginning in August and hasn’t been the same since a hip injury. Barnes’ velocity and strikeouts were way down in 2023 before he underwent season-ending surgery. He should have a good chance to win a spot in a Nationals bullpen that has little established talent.

Rosario and Winker are both left-handed-hitting outfielders who are best deployed in left field — with Winker having a particularly shaky defensive reputation. Winker is the younger of the two at 30 years old (to Rosario’s 32). Winker was quietly one of the most productive hitters in baseball against right-handed pitching for much of his time in Cincinnati, but knee and neck surgery in October 2022 look to have taken their toll on him. Rosario was the far more productive hitter in 2023. There may not be room for both veterans on the Washington roster. Winker has been in camp longer and been more productive in their small samples.

Orioles: 2B Kolten Wong

The Orioles seem to bring in a veteran infielder coming off a down season almost every year. It’s Wong’s turn in 2023. The 33-year-old was one of the game’s worst hitters in ’23, slashing just .183/.256/.263 in 250 plate appearances between the Mariners and Dodgers. That was beyond out of character for Wong, who’d been an average or better hitter in five of the past six seasons. If the O’s don’t want to rush Jackson Holliday or Coby Mayo, Wong could win a spot on the roster — but he hasn’t hit that well in camp so far.

Pirates: RHP Chase Anderson

It’s been five years since Anderson’s last solid season in a big league rotation, but the well-liked veteran continues to get work each season. From 2020-23, he’s pitched to a 6.19 ERA in 192 MLB frames — including a 5.42 mark in 86 1/3 innings last year (mostly with the Rockies). Anderson doesn’t miss many bats, but he has good command and is having a nice spring with the Pirates. He’s competing with Luis Ortiz, Jared Jones, Roansy Contreras, Domingo German and others for one of two generally open rotation spots in Pittsburgh.

Rangers: INF Matt Duffy, RHP Shane Greene, RHP Jose Urena

A contact-oriented hitter who can play all over the infield, the 33-year-old Duffy faces an uphill battle with Josh Smith, Ezequiel Duran and Justin Foscue all on the 40-man roster ahead of him. Nathaniel Lowe will open the season on the injured list, but that’ll likely work to Jared Walsh’s benefit more than Duffy.

Greene, 35, is a former All-Star closer/setup man who peaked with the Tigers and Braves from 2017-20. He’s thrown just three innings in each of the past two MLB seasons but also turned in strong numbers with the Cubs in Triple-A last year.

The 32-year-old Urena made five dismal starts for the Rockies early in the 2023 season and five solid ones for the White Sox late in the season. He also pitched well for Chicago’s Triple-A affiliate. A solid arm for the Marlins in 2017-18, Urena has a 5.50 ERA in 350 1/3 MLB frames dating back to 2019. He’s had a nice spring and could be a depth piece for an injury-plagued Rangers rotation.

Rays: RHP Jake Odorizzi

Odorizzi signed last week and will look to get back on track after a shoulder injury cost him the 2023 season. With the exception of an injury-wrecked 2020 season, he’s been a dependable five-inning starter dating back to 2014 (3.98 ERA in 1216 innings). The Rays’ pitching staff is dealing with plenty of injuries, and Odorizzi should be an option for the Rays early in the season.

Red Sox: 1B C.J. Cron, RHP Michael Fulmer, C Roberto Perez, LHP Joely Rodriguez

Cron has four seasons of 25-plus homers under his belt and was consistently an above-average hitter from 2014-22. Injuries tanked his 2023 season, but he has a strong track record of hitting for power — with largely even platoon splits. He’d make a nice right-handed complement to Triston Casas and/or Masataka Yoshida at first base and designated hitter, providing some insurance against an injury to either.

Perez is an all-glove backup who’s never hit much outside the juiced ball season in 2019, when he popped 24 of his 55 career homers. The Sox figure to go with Reese McGuire and Connor Wong behind the plate, making him a long shot to land a roster spot.

Rodriguez signed a big league deal with the Red Sox prior to the 2023 season but only pitched 11 innings due to injury. He’s having a decent spring training — two runs on nine hits and three walks with nine strikeouts in seven innings — and has a good chance to win a spot in a patchwork Red Sox bullpen. If not, his ability to miss bats and pile up grounders would likely draw interest elsewhere.

Fulmer won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing surgery last summer. His minor league deal is a two-year contract that stretches into 2025. The two sides knew this going into the arrangement and there’s no reason to expect he’ll opt out.

Royals: RHP Tyler Duffey

Duffey was a mainstay in the division-rival Twins’ bullpen and was a high-end setup option at his peak in 2019-21, posting a 2.89 ERA across 144 frames while fanning 29.8% of his opponents. His results slipped in 2022 as he lost some life on his fastball, and he pitched just two MLB frames with the Cubs in 2023. Duffey recently had a procedure to remove a cancerous mole from his shoulder that understandably halted his baseball activity for a bit. He’s hopeful he’ll pitch again this spring, and while the larger takeaway is relief that the melanoma was discovered and quickly treated, his track record could also give him a shot to crack the Royals’ bullpen early in the season.

White Sox: RHP Jesse Chavez, RHP Brad Keller, RHP Dominic Leone, 3B/1B Mike Moustakas, OF Kevin Pillar, RHP Bryan Shaw

Chavez, 40, has been excellent with the Braves in each of the past three seasons but struggled in stints with the Cubs and Angels. He’s having a tough spring with the White Sox but carries a 2.81 ERA in his past 137 2/3 MLB frames, spanning the 2021-23 seasons.

Keller has spent his entire big league career with the Royals but saw his time in Kansas City come to a rough ending. After a three-year run as a solid starter, Keller struggled in three subsequent seasons, culminating in an IL stint for symptoms indicative of thoracic outlet syndrome. He hasn’t pitched in an official spring game for the White Sox.

Leone struggled late in the 2023 season but has a cumulative 3.38 ERA in 157 innings over the past three seasons. He’s having a solid spring training, has late-inning experience, and seems like a decent bet to win a spot in a White Sox bullpen that’s been completely torn down since last summer.

Moustakas has turned in three straight below-average seasons at the plate and is struggling again with the White Sox in camp (.167/.268/.278 in 41 plate appearances). The Sox have Yoan Moncada and Andrew Vaughn at the corners, plus Gavin Sheets as a lefty-swinging first base option (and corner outfielder) off the bench. Moose seems like a long shot to make the club.

Pillar would give the Sox a right-handed complement to lefty-hitting corner outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Dominic Fletcher. He’s 35 and no longer the plus-plus defensive center fielder he once was but could give them some insurance for Luis Robert Jr. in center as well. He hit .228/.248/.416 with nine homers in 206 plate appearances for the Braves last year.

Shaw pitched 45 2/3 innings for the Sox last year and delivered a respectable 4.14 ERA in that time. His production has tailed off substantially since his days as a consistent setup presence in the Cleveland bullpen — evidenced by a 5.07 ERA over his past six seasons. He’s been tagged for a dozen earned runs in 7 1/3 spring frames but does have 10 strikeouts.

Why Jordan Montgomery May Wait Until The Season Starts To Sign

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As this incredibly slow offseason has dragged on, much attention has been paid to the free agents who remained unsigned into February and March. There were many players in this group but a lot of attention was paid to the so-called “Boras Four,” which consisted of Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.

The attention was understandable as they were the highest-profile of the guys languishing in the open market. At the start of the offseason, just about every outlet that predicts such things pegged those four to get lengthy nine-figure pacts, including here at MLBTR. But as the winter dragged on towards the spring, many teams claimed to be at their spending limits, either due to uncertainty around TV revenue or competitive balance tax implications.

In recent weeks, three of those four players have pivoted to short-term deals with fairly high average annual values and opt-outs. In each case, the player can pocket a sizeable salary and then return to the open market in the future if they feel the chance of netting a mega pact will be better.

Bellinger returned to the Cubs on a three-year, $80MM deal, in which he can opt out after each of the first two seasons. Chapman got three years and $54MM from the Giants, also with opt-outs after the first two years. Snell will join Chapman in San Francisco after signing a two-year, $62MM deal that will let him opt out after this coming season.

Montgomery’s situation is slightly different than those three in one way. The other three received and rejected a qualifying offer at the end of the 2023 season, meaning they were tied to signing penalties this winter. The penalties vary depending on whether the team is a revenue-sharing recipient or a competitive balance tax payor, but a club has to forfeit one draft pick at minimum, sometimes two picks and also international bonus pool space. Players can only receive one QO in their career, so they won’t have to worry about those penalties in future trips to free agency.

Montgomery is in the opposite situation. He has yet to receive a QO and would not currently require a signing team to forfeit anything. Players are only eligible for a QO if they spend the entirety of the just-completed season with the same club. Since the lefty was traded from the Cardinals to the Rangers in the middle of the 2023 campaign, he wasn’t eligible to get a QO coming into this offseason.

That makes it somewhat complicated for him to consider the short-term, opt-out laden pacts that the other Boras guys settled for. While they all just shed their QOs and will be free from them going forward, Montgomery is currently free but could be in position to be saddled with a QO down the road. As recently as March 8, he was reportedly holding out hope of landing a lengthy seven-year deal. The fact that he remains unsigned suggests that he never got it and it’s hard to see a team making that kind of plunge at this late stage of the offseason.

Since Opening Day is now just over a week away, with most teams starting their seasons on March 28, perhaps it would be wise for him to look for the best short-term deal he can find but wait until after Opening Day to actually sign it. The collective bargaining agreement states that the QO applies to players who become free agents “after having been continuously under reserve (without interruption) to the same Club (either at the Major or Minor League level) since Opening Day of the recently completed championship season” and who have not previously received a QO from any club.

Perhaps waiting would make Montgomery more amenable to a short-term pact with opt-outs, as he wouldn’t have to worry about a qualifying offer, at least after 2024. Hypothetically, if he signed a two-year pact like Snell and decided not to trigger his opt-out, he could be given a QO after the 2025 campaign unless he was traded midseason again.

It’s also possible there would be an on-field logic to the move. Montgomery’s 188 2/3 innings in the regular season were a personal high and then he added another 31 frames in the postseason as he helped the Rangers win the World Series. Players sometimes talk about a “World Series hangover” where they experience a bit of extra fatigue in a season following a deep playoff run, since it shortens the offseason rest period. Delaying his spring ramp-up could perhaps give him some extra rest and avoid any of those hangover effects.

The flip side of this strategy is that a club could perhaps factor a future QO into the price of their contract offer. Starting with whatever dollar value they place on Montgomery as a pitcher, they might be will to add a few million to that if they feel there’s a high chance of him opting out and then netting them a future draft pick. By intentionally waiting until the season starts, Montgomery would presumably be taking that bump out of the picture.

That’s all speculation, to be clear, but it’s known that teams place internal values on draft picks. Mets owner Steve Cohen tweeted a few years ago that picks are worth up to five times their slot value to teams. Last year, picks 68-70 of the draft went to the Cubs, Giants and Braves. Those clubs had given QOs to Willson Contreras, Carlos Rodón and Dansby Swanson, respectively, and received compensation picks when they signed elsewhere. Per MLB.com, those picks each had a slot value a bit over $1MM.

Waiting to sign in-season due to concerns around the QO isn’t unprecedented, but this would be different than past instances. Some players who rejected QOs in the past waited until after the draft was completed to sign new contracts, therefore washing away the draft pick penalties. Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel and Kendrys Morales are some of the players who signed in June, after the draft. Stephen Drew was on a path to a similar fate in 2014 before the Red Sox, his previous club, realized their chances of getting any QO compensation were dwindling and just re-signed him.

Montgomery’s situation is different in that he only needs to wait one day into the season in order to make him ineligible to receive a QO after 2024. Since the QO can negatively impact a free agent’s earning power and the season will have started for all 30 clubs by next Thursday, perhaps he could sit tight a little bit longer.

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

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In his first offseason as White Sox GM, Chris Getz made four key trades and a series of small free agent deals as the team enters another rebuilding phase.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $20.8MM
Total spending: $30.05MM

Options Exercised

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Back in October, I was skeptical of White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf saying, “We want to get better as fast as we possibly can,” as part of the justification for hiring internal GM candidate Chris Getz without conducting outside interviews.  It was just too tall of an order for a team that lacked talent and has an owner averse to big free agent contracts.  Based on the moves Getz ended up making in his first offseason as GM, a quick turnaround and 2024 contention were never actually the goals.

Given Liam Hendriks’ August Tommy John surgery, the White Sox chose to decline his $15MM option for 2024, instead triggering a buyout in the same amount that will be paid out over the next decade.  The club also declined their $14MM club option on Tim Anderson, paying a $1MM buyout after finding no takers via trade.  This outcome was unsurprising after Anderson’s abysmal 2023.  The White Sox opted for a cheap defensive-minded veteran replacement at shortstop, signing free agent Paul DeJong in November.  Anderson’s eight-year White Sox career officially ended when he inked a $5MM deal with the Marlins in February.

Though Getz chose to retain manager Pedro Grifol, the Sox did turn over the coaching staff early in the offseason, bringing in Marcus Thames as hitting coach and also adding Grady Sizemore, Drew Butera, Matt Wise, and Jason Bourgeois.  Getz also dropped this memorable line to the media: “I don’t like our team.”

Getz would go on to back up that statement by giving the White Sox a major makeover.  The first strike happened in mid-November, with reliever Aaron Bummer getting shipped to Atlanta for a five-player package.  Taking advantage of Chicago’s lack of depth, four of the five players acquired were on the 40-man roster.  It was a whole lot of players the Braves didn’t need.  The biggest name, Mike Soroka, may have otherwise wound up non-tendered.  But as a $3MM flier for a threadbare White Sox rotation, Soroka fits.  Shuster provides another backend rotation candidate; he’ll start the season at Triple-A.  Given that Bummer was coming off a 6.79 ERA and rebuilding teams don’t have much need for decently-compensated relievers anyway, sending him off for depth pieces was a solid first trade for Getz.

The White Sox’s biggest free agent offseason expenditure came during the Winter Meetings with the signing of Erick Fedde.  The former Nationals top prospect, now 31, rejuvenated his career in South Korea in 2023.  Now he’s a key part of Chicago’s rotation.  The Fedde signing seems like a reasonable play for innings, with a hint of upside for a sub-4.00 ERA season.  This is very much a Rotation of Opportunity in 2024.  Perhaps nothing demonstrates that better than Garrett Crochet getting the Opening Day nod.  As James Fegan noted at Sox Machine, Crochet has 73 big league innings to his name, “it’s his first time back in [the starting pitcher] routine since essentially his sophomore year of college, and Tommy John surgery rehab and a shoulder strain didn’t make 2023 a typical platform year from the bullpen.”

A veteran backup catcher was on Getz’s shopping list this winter, given the inexperience of Korey Lee and Edgar Quero.  He found one in another deal with the Braves, who were serving as a way station for Max Stassi.  The White Sox are only on the hook for $740K of Stassi’s $7MM salary this year, so he makes for a low-risk addition.  Several weeks later, the White Sox inked Martin Maldonado to a one-year deal, possibly stifling an opportunity for Lee or Quero assuming Stassi sticks.  Logically, if one of the young catchers seems ready this summer, one or both veterans will be traded.

In January, news came that Reinsdorf is seeking a new stadium for the White Sox in the South Loop.  Everything so far has been standard: a request for over a billion dollars in public money, promises of an economic boom around a new stadium, questionable reasoning about why the current stadium won’t work, and a vague threat that the team could be moved.  All of this is outside the scope of our Offseason In Review series, but the ballpark situation figures to hang over the team for the foreseeable future.

In February, Getz added Dominic Fletcher in a trade with the Diamondbacks, hopefully filling the Sox’s long-standing right field vacancy in the process.  Fletcher, 26, hit well in limited action as a rookie with Arizona last year.  Coming into the 2023 season, Baseball America rated Fletcher as a 40-grade prospect with a strong glove and a “line-drive swing with average bat speed.”  Projection systems suggest Fletcher’s bat is not currently MLB-caliber, despite his brief success in ’23.  Still, the bar is astoundingly low here, as the White Sox haven’t had their primary right fielder post a 1-WAR season since Avisail Garcia in 2017.  Fletcher may have the right field job out of the gate, though minor league signing Kevin Pillar will likely be lurking as his potential platoon partner or backup.

The Fletcher addition fits with Getz’s stated goal of improving the team’s defense.  Aside from Fletcher, the Sox have improved up the middle with DeJong, Nicky Lopez, and Maldonado.  Groundballers like Fedde and Soroka should appreciate that, and defense is generally much cheaper on the market than offense.  Of course, a tradeoff has been made, as offensive expectations for Fletcher, DeJong, Lopez, and Maldonado are quite low.

On the same day as the Fletcher trade, Getz dealt his best reliever, Gregory Santos, to the Mariners for Prelander Berroa, Zach DeLoach, and the #69 pick in this year’s draft.  The two prospects project as a potential setup man and a fourth outfielder if things go well, and the draft pick will further boost organizational depth.  With dim prospects in the short-term, trading away relievers for quality prospects is usually a good move.  DeLoach may not have the ideal arm for right field, but as a 25-year-old who played 138 games at Triple-A last year, he could push Fletcher for playing time this year.

Of course, those departures leave the White Sox with one of the game’s shakiest-looking bullpens.  New additions Steven Wilson, John Brebbia, and Tim Hill will see high-leverage work.  The idea of Michael Kopech in the rotation seems to have been abandoned, and the once-highly-regarded righty will try to find success in relief.

Dylan Cease was the undercurrent of Getz’s entire offeason.  With two years of control remaining, Cease was seemingly shopped all winter.  Getz waited out the acquisitions of Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Lucas Giolito, Chris Sale, Shota Imanaga, Marcus Stroman, and Corbin Burnes, all pitchers who had crossover with Cease’s market.  Blake Snell didn’t reach an agreement until March 18th, and as of this writing Jordan Montgomery remains available.  The Dodgers, Braves, Cardinals, Reds, Yankees, Mets, Mariners, Orioles, and Rangers were linked to Cease at various points, but it was the Padres who swooped in to make a late deal on March 13th.

As I wrote in my subscriber-only mailbag last week, comparing the trade to the handful of rare precedents, I like the deal for the White Sox.  Aside from Wilson, something of a throw-in, Getz acquired three prospects graded 50 or 55 for Cease.  Looking at deals made for James Paxton, Joe Musgrove, and Gerrit Cole, teams generally fell short of that return.

Without Cease, the White Sox rotation has the potential to be awful.  RosterResource currently projects Crochet, Fedde, Soroka, Chris Flexen, and Nick Nastrini as the starting five.  Drew Thorpe, perhaps the key piece in the Cease trade, has a great opportunity here, but did not help his short-term chances with yesterday’s spring training outing.  The projected White Sox rotation has produced exactly two good Major League seasons to date: Soroka’s 4-WAR effort in 2019, and Flexen’s 3-WAR 2021.

Trading Cease is something of a concession the White Sox are not going to be good in 2024 or 2025.  They’re projected to win 66 games this year, and it’s hard to see them leaping into contention in ’25.  Luis Robert may be at peak value coming off a healthy 5-WAR season, and he’s controlled through 2027.  A case could be made that if his performance is largely irrelevant on bad teams in ’24 and ’25, and the team might just be turning the corner in ’26, the optimal move is to cash him in now for the maximum return.  But the White Sox probably don’t see their timeline that way, and keeping Robert simply as a reason to watch the team is defensible.

Should the White Sox be taking advantage of their low payroll this year to try to add prospect capital?  In a mailbag earlier this month, I explored the concept of sign-and-flips by non-contending teams, and we found success stories to be pretty rare in practice.  As Anthony Franco put it, “If the guy was any good, he wasn’t signing a low-base MLB deal with a non-contender.”  So you might suggest the White Sox should’ve landed one-year free agents like Teoscar Hernandez or Luis Severino with a mind toward flipping them, but those players might not have been interested.

Overall, this was a good first offseason for Getz, who traded three of his more marketable players aside from Robert and got respectable returns.  It’s likely he’ll continue to listen on Eloy Jimenez and would trade Yoan Moncada if he has any kind of resurgence.  As far as the season ahead, it’s going to be ugly.

 

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