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Poll: Who Will Win The AL Division Series?

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Last night, MLBTR readers weighed in on the National League Division Series. With both series knotted up 1-1 at the time, readers heavily favored the Padres to upset the Dodgers while giving a slight edge to the Phillies to take down the Mets. The lower seeds each prevailed at home tonight to put the NL’s top two teams on the brink of elimination.

Tuesday was a travel day in the American League. Those series are also squared at a game apiece, providing an opportunity to check in on those sets. The Guardians destroyed the Tigers in Game 1, but Kerry Carpenter hit a game-winning homer in the ninth off Emmanuel Clase to give the Tigers a 3-0 win in the second game. The Royals rebounded after dropping a back-and-forth contest against the Yankees in Game 1. Kansas City rode a four-run fourth inning to a relatively easy 4-2 victory in Game 2.

Cleveland and Detroit will kick off play on Wednesday afternoon. The Guardians are turning to Alex Cobb in what will be just his fourth appearance in a Cleveland uniform. Cleveland landed Cobb from the Giants at the deadline to address a rotation that was the team’s biggest weakness. Cobb had spent the first few months of the season on the IL rehabbing last fall’s hip surgery. Blisters and a cracked fingernail on his throwing hand limited him to a trio of regular season appearances. Cobb pitched well in that brief action, allowing five earned runs with 10 strikeouts and three walks over 16 1/3 innings. This will be his first game in almost six weeks.

The Tigers haven’t announced a starter to oppose Cobb. Detroit has mostly ridden bullpen games behind ace Tarik Skubal and second starter Reese Olson. They’ll probably have Olson lined up for Game 4 with Skubal on tap if the series gets a decider. Tomorrow is likely to be an all hands on deck affair. Cleveland could go back to respective Games 1 and 2 starters Tanner Bibee and Matthew Boyd after tomorrow.

There’s a more conventional pitching matchup in Kansas City. The hosts will turn to Seth Lugo, who turned in an even 3.00 earned run average across 206 2/3 innings during his first season with the Royals. The potential Cy Young finalist tossed 4 1/3 innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts against Baltimore in the clincher of last week’s Wild Card series — the first postseason start of Lugo’s career. New York counters with Clarke Schmidt, who’ll be starting a playoff game for the first time himself. The former first-round pick had a 2.85 ERA over 16 starts in the regular season. He lost three months midseason to a lat strain but was excellent when healthy.

New York and Kansas City already list Gerrit Cole and Michael Wacha as the respective probable starters for Game 4. Neither team has announced its pitcher for a potential Game 5. That’d likely be a rematch of Monday’s pitching matchup between K.C. ace Cole Ragans and Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodón with both pitchers on regular rest by Saturday.

Which teams will vie for the ALCS next week?

What Will Be The Result Of CLE/DET?
Tigers in 5. 35.72% (1,924 votes)
Guardians in 5. 31.19% (1,680 votes)
Tigers in 4. 19.48% (1,049 votes)
Guardians in 4. 13.61% (733 votes)
Total Votes: 5,386

 

What Will Be The Result Of NYY/KC?
Royals in 5. 31.14% (1,564 votes)
Yankees in 5. 29.19% (1,466 votes)
Yankees in 4. 21.74% (1,092 votes)
Royals in 4. 17.94% (901 votes)
Total Votes: 5,023

 

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs enter 2025 with an excellent opportunity to make the playoffs for the first time under Jed Hoyer.  Cody Bellinger's decision will help determine Hoyer's path, but the club will be seeking help at catcher and in the rotation and bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

  • Cody Bellinger, RF/CF/DH/1B: $27.5MM player option with a $2.5MM buyout.  Also has a $25MM player option for '26 with a $5MM buyout
  • Drew Smyly, RP: $10MM mutual option with a $2.5MM buyout

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The Cubs' splashy hiring of Craig Counsell last November had minimal impact this year, as the club posted the same 83-79 record it had under David Ross in 2023.  A 17-10 April record created some optimism, but the Cubs went 65-67 thereafter and were mostly out of the playoff race by July.  Let's take a look around the Cubs' roster and figure out how president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer might go about creating a 90-win team for 2025, a particularly ripe opportunity with the Cardinals taking a rare step back.

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Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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The Rangers never seemed to snap out of a World Series hangover, as the team stumbled to a 78-84 record one year after capturing its first championship.  Texas now has several holes to be filled on the pitching staff, and the lingering question of how much money is available for roster upgrades.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

2025 financial commitments: $136.75MM ($170.25MM if all options are exercised)
Total future commitments: $469.75MM ($503.25MM if all options are exercised)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The first bit of the Rangers' offseason business was addressed in September, when Chris Young was signed to a new contract extension and promoted from GM to president of baseball operations.  Young's previous deal was up at the end of the 2024 season, and despite this year's struggles in Arlington, the Commissioner's Trophy from 2023 was surely enough for Young to earn some extra job security.

Now entering his third winter in charge of the Texas front office, Young faces another unique challenge.  The 2022-23 offseason was all about the Rangers trying to finally get back into contention, and Jacob deGrom's five-year, $185MM free agent deal added to the club's spending spree from the previous offseason under former PBO Jon Daniels.  Last offseason, with a championship now in tow, Young basically just stood pat, as the Rangers scaled back spending due to the big salary commitments already in place, and plenty of concern over the team's broadcasting revenues.

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Poll: Who Will Win The NL Division Series?

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Monday is a travel day for the National League. Both series are knotted up 1-1 as they head to the homes of the lower seeds. Nick Castellanos’ walk-off hit capped off a back-and-forth affair in Philadelphia yesterday, squaring things with the Mets. The Padres had a much more convincing (but still drama-filled) beatdown of the Dodgers to tie that series.

The latter has a couple health situations to monitor. Freddie Freeman and Xander Bogaerts each departed yesterday’s game. Bogaerts’ absence was on accounting of hamstring cramping and came after the Padres had taken a six-run lead. That seemed precautionary at the time, and skipper Mike Shildt said today that the team’s belief is that it was simply a result of dehydration (X link via Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Freeman has had a bigger problem, playing through a sprained right ankle. L.A. manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic) this evening that Freeman was receiving treatment; his status for tomorrow’s game remains uncertain.

San Diego looks to have the distinctive edge from a pitching perspective for Game 3. They’ll turn to righty Michael King, owner of a 2.95 ERA in the regular season. Los Angeles counters with the scuffling Walker Buehler, who allowed more than five earned runs per nine this year after returning from his second career Tommy John surgery.

Neither team has named a starter for Game 4. Shildt kept open the possibility of turning back to Game 1 starter Dylan Cease on short rest on Wednesday (X link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). They’d presumably only do that if they lose tomorrow and are facing elimination in Game 4. Roberts has already shot down the possibility of bringing his Game 1 starter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, back on short rest. That very likely leaves L.A. to turn to rookie Landon Knack in the fourth game.

There’s more clarity on the pitching plans in the NL’s other series. The pair of NL East rivals have already named starters for both games that’ll take place in Queens. It’s a matchup between Aaron Nola and Sean Manaea tomorrow. They’ve both had good seasons, though Manaea was a bit better than Nola was down the stretch.

It’ll be a pair of southpaws on Wednesday. Philadelphia turns to Ranger Suárez, while the Mets counter with José Quintana. Quintana followed up a brilliant September with six scoreless innings to help keep the Mets alive in the rubber match of their Wild Card series in Milwaukee. Suárez has yet to pitch this postseason. He’s generally as good as any fourth starter in MLB. Suárez looked as if he’d even be in the Cy Young conversation early in the year, but he was hit hard in September after losing a month to a back injury. He finished the season with a 3.46 ERA through 150 2/3 innings.

Philadelphia will have Zack Wheeler in reserve if the series goes to a decider. New York is expected to counter in a potential Game 5 with Kodai Senga, who managed two innings on 31 pitches in his return from the 60-day injured list last week.

Which two teams will punch their ticket to the NLCS later this week?

What Will Be The Result Of LAD/SD?
Padres in 5. 39.05% (3,485 votes)
Padres in 4. 32.72% (2,920 votes)
Dodgers in 5. 23.80% (2,124 votes)
Dodgers in 4. 4.44% (396 votes)
Total Votes: 8,925

 

What Will Be The Result Of PHI/NYM?
Phillies in 5. 40.99% (3,239 votes)
Mets in 5. 27.08% (2,140 votes)
Mets in 4. 19.75% (1,561 votes)
Phillies in 4. 12.17% (962 votes)
Total Votes: 7,902

 

The Surprise Ace Of Last Year’s Free Agent Class

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As the 22 teams that aren’t currently focused on capturing the 2024 World Series title gear up for the coming offseason, many will surely be keeping an eye on the number of high-profile free agent starters set to hit the market this winter with Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Jack Flaherty among the consensus top arms. It’s a class that’s not entirely dissimilar from last winter’s group of top arms, which was headlined by a quartet of Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Aaron Nola, and Jordan Montgomery.

Those top free agent arms garnered a combined guarantee of more than $600MM last winter, and the results were generally commensurate with that production. While Montgomery struggled badly with the Diamondbacks, Nola put up a fairly typical season by his standards with the Phillies this year (albeit with slightly diminished peripherals) and both Snell and Yamamoto fought through injury woes to dominate as expected when healthy. That said, a starter who was looked at more as a mid-rotation type of arm last winter surprised the baseball world by emerging with numbers comparable to those at the very top of the class.

That hurler was Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga, who was generally looked at as a tier below the aforementioned group alongside Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito, and Sonny Gray. In spite of rumors that Imanaga’s market could top $100MM when all was said and done, the southpaw lingered in free agency into the new year before eventually signing with Chicago on a deal that fell far below expectations. While the deal maxes out at five years and $80MM, just a stone’s throw away from MLBTR’s prediction of $85MM over five years, the deal came with a complex structure that only guaranteed Imanaga $53MM, or roughly two thirds of that $80MM total figure.

It’s not hard to see why teams were seemingly bearish on Imanaga. After all, the 30-year-old lefty was coming over from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball at an age that’s roughly in line with a typical MLB free agent rather than the younger age many NPB players such as Yamamoto and teammate Seiya Suzuki make their way to the majors at. Yamamoto was marketing his age-25 season last year, while Suzuki marketed his age-27 season over the 2021-22 offseason. With many of Imanaga’s prime years already behind him, he maintained all the risk of providing a hefty sum to a player with no MLB experience without much of the perceived upside that would come with signing a player in their mid-20s.

Even aside from Imanaga’s age, it’s also worth noting that the lefty’s profile as a pitcher drew significant questions. The southpaw doesn’t throw especially hard, having averaged just 91.9mph on his heater this year, and some scouting reports (including one from Brandon Tew of Sports Info Solutions) raised questions about his ability to manage home runs at the big league level due to his fly ball-oriented profile. While Imanaga’s deep pitch mix and high-end stuff metrics offered reason for optimism regarding his future in the big leagues, the lefty nevertheless entered his first MLB season with plenty of questions surrounding him.

Fortunately for both Imanaga and the Cubs, he answered those questions in resounding fashion with an excellent rookie campaign. Overall, the lefty posted a 2.91 ERA (37% better than league average by ERA+) with a strong 25.1% strikeout rate that was 16th-best among qualified starters this year. He paired that strikeout stuff with excellent control, walking just 4% of opponents faced this year. That’s a figure topped by only George Kirby, Miles Mikolas, and Zach Eflin among all big leaguers this year and leaves him with a fantastic 21% K-BB that leaves him sandwiched between ace righties Zack Wheeler and Dylan Cease on the NL leaderboard.

That being said, not everything about Imanaga’s 2024 performance was dominant. His 3.72 FIP is rather pedestrian (just 6% better than league average by FIP-) and more advanced metrics such as xERA and SIERA, while more bullish than FIP on his performance, nonetheless see him as more of a 3.50 ERA pitcher than the 2.91 figure he actually posted this year. The main culprit for that discrepancy between results and metrics is the very same weakness that drew some skepticism last winter: his proclivity for giving up homers. Imanaga surrendered 27 home runs this year, tied with Twins righty Bailey Ober for ninth-most among all qualified starters in 2024.

While that’s certainly not a completely untenable figure, it would certainly be fair to wonder if Imanaga is due for some regression heading into next season. Of the eight pitchers who surrendered more homers than Imanaga this year, none came close to his sterling ERA with only Nola (3.57) and Jose Berrios (3.60) posting an figure that was even within a full run of Imanaga’s 2.91 mark. Between his hefty home run rate and an above-average 80.2% strand rate this year, it would hardly be a surprise if the emergent ace put up numbers closer to the mid-rotation ceiling he was thought to have this time last year come 2025.

Of course, even a step back that aligns Imanaga’s performance more closely with his advanced metrics would leave the Cubs with an excellent #2 starter behind ace Justin Steele who they should have no concerns about starting in a hypothetical playoff series. Barring dramatic regression on the part of Imanaga next year, it seems very likely that the Cubs will guarantee the lefty the full $80MM value of his contract rather than risk him opting out following the 2025 campaign, which he would be able to do if the Cubs decline to guarantee the full contract.

How Will The Cardinals Handle Their Rotation Options?

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The coming offseason figures to be a tumultuous one for the Cardinals. Coming off a second consecutive season where the club missed the playoffs, St. Louis brass have already announced that significant changes are coming, headlined by Chaim Bloom stepping in to take over baseball operations following the 2025 season (with a larger role in the meantime) and the club planning to slash payroll as they figure to bring back few if any of their departing veteran players.

While Paul Goldschmidt headlines the list of players who appear likely to don another uniform in 2025, what’s not yet clear is what the club intends to do about its starting rotation. Rumors have swirled that the club could shop staff ace Sonny Gray this winter as they look to trim payroll and focus on developing young players, and if Gray were to be moved that would leave only struggling veteran Miles Mikolas, oft-injured swingman Steven Matz, breakout youngster Andre Pallante, and deadline acquisition Erick Fedde as rotation options on guaranteed contracts for 2025. With some interesting young arms such as Michael McGreevey, Sem Robberse, and Adam Kloffenstein in the wings as potential contributors next year, it’s not hard to imagine St. Louis getting solid enough production from its internal options.

With that being said, however, their current rotation picture offers very little certainty, especially should Gray wind up pitching elsewhere next year. After all, even Pallante and Fedde lack track records of success in a big league rotation that go beyond the current season. Fortunately, the Cards have not one but two options available to them that could help raise the floor on their 2025 rotation at a relatively cheap price: Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. The veteran hurlers will play at ages 37 and 38 respectively next year, but both posted solid results as back-end rotation options for the club this year and come with identical $12MM club options (with $1MM buyouts) for 2025. Given the club’s focus on the future and desire to trim payroll, it would be something of a surprise if both options were exercised. Given the many similarities between the two veteran Midwest natives, it’s fair to wonder which of the two hurlers would be a better choice for the Cardinals to retain next year, and which one they should send into free agency.

Of the two, retaining Lynn would surely offer a higher ceiling. The veteran hurler pitched the first six seasons of his career in St. Louis as a perfectly capable mid-rotation arm, but had a late-career breakout with the Rangers and White Sox that saw him pitch like a true top-of-the-rotation ace: from 2019 to 2021, Lynn posted a strong 3.26 ERA that was 46% better than league average with a 3.39 FIP and a 27.5% strikeout rate. He also enjoyed slightly better results than Gibson did this year, with advantages in ERA (3.84 vs 4.24), FIP (4.31 vs 4.42), and strikeout rate (21.3% vs 20.9%). For a club that’s likely to rely primarily on internal improvements in order to maintain hopes of contending for a playoff spot in 2025, there’s an argument to be made that Lynn’s ceiling and stronger results this season make him the smarter choice to retain going forward.

That’s not to say there isn’t a case to be made for Gibson, however. While the 12-year MLB veteran has never flashed the ceiling Lynn did during his peak, Gibson is more dependable in some ways. The groundballer rarely misses time due to injury, having made at least 29 starts in nine of his ten full seasons in the majors. By contrast, Lynn was limited to just 21 starts in 2022 and 23 starts this year by knee issues. What’s more, even as Lynn posted stronger overall numbers with the Cardinals this year, certain underlying metrics actually painted a much less clear picture: Gibson’s 4.44 SIERA is nearly identical to Lynn’s 4.40 figure, while Gibson actually wins on both xERA (4.90 vs 4.93) and xFIP (4.19 vs 4.39) thanks in part to a much stronger grounder rate (44.8% vs 36.3%).

While Gibson’s ceiling may not be as high as Lynn’s his reliability could be particularly valuable for a club that figures to rely heavily on young arms who may not yet be ready for a full season’s workload next year, and his comparable expected metrics call into question just how much of an advantage Lynn really has in terms of run prevention. Of course, it’s also worth noting that the club could choose a third option and decline both club options in hopes of finding similar production at a lower cost in free agency. It would be a risky choice to make given the rising costs of pitching in recent years, but a back-end arm like Martin Perez, Jose Urena, or Michael Lorenzen could theoretically be had at a lower price than either veteran’s club option depending on how this winter’s market shakes out. Of course, any player available at that price point would surely have flaws of their own.

How should the Cardinals handle their upcoming club options in the rotation? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Option Should The Cardinals Pick Up This Winter?
Decline Both Options In Hopes Of A Better Deal In Free Agency 51.42% (1,824 votes)
Pick Up Kyle Gibson's Option 36.37% (1,290 votes)
Pick Up Lance Lynn's Option 12.21% (433 votes)
Total Votes: 3,547

Previewing The 2024-25 Free Agent Class: Right-Handed Relief

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MLBTR’s positional preview of the upcoming free agent class concludes with a look at the right-handed relief class. There are a couple established closers and some breakout arms who should get plenty of buzz as leverage pieces, yet it’s a rather thin group overall.

Player ages, listed in parenthesis, are for the 2025 season. Only players who have appeared in the majors this year or spent the entire season on the MLB injured list are included.

Other Entries: Catcher | First Base | Second Base | Shortstop | Third Base | Center Field | Corner Outfield | Designated Hitter | Starting Pitcher | Left-Handed Relief

High-Leverage Arms

MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored Hoffman’s emergence in a piece for Front Office subscribers last week. The former top 10 pick bounced around the league before finding a home in Philadelphia. He has a sterling 2.28 ERA across 118 2/3 innings for the Phils over the past two seasons. Hoffman has pitched his way up the leverage hierarchy and proven up to the challenge of tougher assignments. He posted a 2.17 mark while striking out more than a third of batters faced over 66 1/3 frames this season. Hoffman should at least land a three-year deal and has a shot at four — especially if he continues to elevate his profile with a strong postseason showing at the back of Rob Thomson’s bullpen.

Hudson returned from successive knee injuries in 2022-23 to post a strong season out of the Dodger bullpen. The veteran tossed 63 innings with an even 3.00 earned run average. He struck out nearly a quarter of opponents against a solid 7.5% walk rate. Hudson’s average fastball velocity returned to its typical 95-96 MPH and he induced swinging strikes at a huge 14.7% clip. His age probably limits him to one year, but Hudson should handily beat this season’s $2MM base salary.

The Yankees’ affinity for ground-ball relievers led them back to Kahnle. He has turned in consecutive sub-3.00 ERA showings over the course of his two-year free agent deal. Kahnle had an excellent 2.11 mark across 42 2/3 frames this season. He induced grounders at a huge 58.6% clip while striking out nearly 26% of opponents behind a stellar 16.4% swinging strike rate. Kahnle’s command can be a bit wobbly, but few pitchers match his combination of swing-and-miss and grounders. He’s adept at avoiding hard contact and neutralizes left-handed hitters with the changeup that he throws almost three quarters of the time. Even at 34, he should be in line for another multi-year deal.

The Cardinals took a flier on Kittredge, who had missed most of 2022-23 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. They were rewarded with 70 2/3 innings of 2.80 ERA ball in mostly high-leverage spots. Kittredge leans primarily on a slider that gets a ton of chases outside the strike zone. His 23.3% strikeout rate and 7% walk percentage are solid, while he has gotten swinging strikes at a strong 13.7% clip. Kittredge had a 1.88 ERA in 71 2/3 innings with the Rays in his previous healthy season. He has a multi-year track record of excellent results in pressure situations.

Martin has indicated that 2025 will be his final season. He’ll look for a one-year deal, presumably on a team with playoff aspirations. Martin should have no trouble finding a high-leverage role on a contender. He had an excellent two-year run with the Red Sox, turning in a 2.16 ERA across 95 2/3 innings. This season’s 3.45 mark wasn’t as dominant as Martin’s 1.05 ERA from 2023, but he fanned 27.8% of batters faced while limiting his walks to a microscopic 1.7% clip. Martin may have the best command of any reliever in the game. He hasn’t allowed an ERA above 4.00 in six seasons.

Robertson had another impressive season, this time at the back of the Texas bullpen. The extremely durable veteran fired 72 innings with an even 3.00 ERA. He struck out more than a third of his opponents while getting ground-balls at a solid 48.8% rate. Robertson has topped 60 innings in each of the past three seasons and hasn’t allowed an ERA higher than 3.03 in any of them. He hasn’t lost any zip on the cutter that serves as his primary pitch. Robertson is probably limited to one year because of his age, but he should command a strong salary and step right back into the late innings with a contender. Robertson will decline his end of a $7MM mutual option in favor of a $1.5MM buyout.

Treinen lost almost all of 2022-23 battling shoulder injuries that eventually required surgery. The Dodgers brought him back on a $1MM option and have been rewarded with 46 2/3 frames of 1.96 ERA ball. Treinen suffered a bruised lung on a hit-by-pitch in Spring Training and had a brief IL stay in August because of hip inflammation. He hasn’t had any arm issues and has had no trouble stepping back into important innings. Treinen punched out more than 30% of opponents against a 6% walk rate. While he didn’t get nearly as many grounders as he did during his best seasons with the A’s, the strikeout/walk profile was excellent. Before the shoulder surgery, Treinen’s sinker sat around 97 MPH. It was down to the 94-95 range this season. That’s a bit of a concern at his age, but the dominant results ensure he’ll land a sizable raise relative to this year’s rebound salary.

Possible Closers

When Estévez first hit the market two seasons ago, he was a hard-throwing upside play who hadn’t put things together in Colorado. That has been one of the Angels’ better free agent moves in recent years. Estévez immediately stepped in as the Halos’ closer and turned in a 3.36 ERA with 51 saves over a season and a half. Los Angeles flipped him to the Phillies for a pair of highly-regarded pitching prospects at the deadline. Estévez has saved another six games with Philadelphia, turning in a 2.57 ERA across 21 frames. His cumulative 23.6% strikeout percentage and 12.5% swinging strike rate are more solid than elite. Yet he’s showing the best command of his career (5.7% walk rate) while averaging nearly 97 MPH on his heater. He’s 26-31 in save chances. Estévez should get another multi-year deal and has a shot at breaking $30MM if he lands three years.

Holmes entered the season with the highest earning power in the relief class. That’s probably no longer the case. Holmes’ aggregate rate stats — a 3.14 ERA with a solid 25.1% strikeout rate and a massive 65% grounder percentage — don’t point to this being a bad year. Holmes blew 13 of 43 save opportunities, though, five more than any other pitcher. He had a 3.75 ERA in the second half after carrying a 2.77 mark into the All-Star Break. The Yankees have bumped him from the closing role going into the playoffs. Holmes still has a case for three years, but he hits the market with more red flags than the ERA and elite ground-ball rate would suggest.

Jansen is going to look for a closing opportunity to add to his career tally of 447 saves. He needs 32 more to pass Lee Smith for third on the all-time leaderboard. Pitching two more seasons would give him a chance to get to 500. There’ll be teams willing to give him that opportunity. Jansen turned in a 3.29 ERA while locking down 27 of 31 attempts with the Red Sox this season. He finished his Boston tenure with a 3.44 mark in 99 1/3 innings over two seasons. While Jansen isn’t the utterly dominant force he was with the Dodgers, he’s still a good closer.

Kimbrel is just behind Jansen on the career saves leaderboard. Whether he’ll get another ninth inning chance is in more doubt. The Orioles released the nine-time All-Star last month. Kimbrel had started the season reasonably well and carried a 2.80 ERA with 23 saves into the All-Star Break. The second half was an absolute disaster. He allowed 22 runs (20 earned) with 15 walks and 20 strikeouts over his final 17 innings. Kimbrel certainly won’t approach last year’s $13MM free agent guarantee. He’ll probably get a big league contract but might need to pitch his way back into the ninth inning.

Sewald’s season wasn’t as poor as Kimbrel’s, but he also lost his hold on the ninth inning. Sewald had only allowed one earned run through the first two months, but a disastrous July (12 runs in 10 innings) pushed him out of the closer’s role in Arizona. While his performance rebounded somewhat down the stretch, he finished the season on the injured list with neck discomfort. Sewald ended with a 4.31 ERA in 39 2/3 innings. He struck out 26.1% of opponents — down six points relative to 2023 — against a 6.1% walk rate. This was his toughest year since his 2021 resurgence with the Mariners.

The Rangers brought in Yates on a $4.5MM free agent deal last winter. It was one of the best bargain pickups of the offseason. Yates turned in a season similar to his dominant 2019 campaign when he was a member of the Padres. He worked to a 1.17 ERA while punching out almost 36% of opposing hitters. Yates took the closing job in Arlington and locked down 33 of 34 opportunities. Yates doesn’t have pristine control, but he misses bats in bunches and rarely gives up damaging contact. He has certainly earned himself a nice boost on this year’s earnings and has a chance at a two-year deal even at 38.

Middle Relief

Armstrong split his season between the Rays, Cardinals and Cubs. He had a poor ERA with Tampa Bay but more appealing strikeout and walk numbers that could land him a big league deal. He finished the year with a 4.86 ERA and a 22.4% strikeout rate over 66 2/3 innings.

A one-time closer in Kansas City, Barlow has moved into the middle innings with the Padres and Guardians over the past season and a half. Cleveland released him last month after he pitched to a 4.25 ERA in 55 innings. Barlow still fanned more than 28% of opponents, though his strikeout rate and velocity trended down as the season progressed.

A journeyman middle reliever, Barnes posted a 4.36 ERA over 66 innings for the Nationals this year. He struck out just under 20% of opponents.

Farmer had a nice season with the Reds, his third year in Cincinnati. He tossed 71 innings with a 3.04 earned run average and nearly average strikeout (23.4%) and walk (9.7%) rates.

García is a hard-throwing sinkerballer. This year’s 50.3% ground-ball rate is below his typical level. García carried a 3.71 ERA in 43 2/3 innings with the Angels through the deadline. A trade to the Red Sox flopped, as he was tagged for 15 runs over 15 1/3 innings in a Boston uniform.

García was missing a ton of bats for the Blue Jays early in the season. He looked on his way to at least a strong two-year deal at the time. Elbow injuries unfortunately soured his season, as he barely pitched from the middle of June onward. García only made 10 appearances for the Mariners, who acquired him in a deadline deal. His season ended in September when recurring elbow soreness shut him down.

Graveman missed the entire season after undergoing offseason shoulder surgery. He posted a 3.12 ERA in 66 1/3 innings between the White Sox and Astros in 2023.

Kelly battled injuries and struggled to a 4.78 ERA over 32 innings this year. He still pushes close to triple digits with his fastball but had a relatively pedestrian 24.5% strikeout rate this season. Kelly had fanned more than 30% of opponents in each of the previous two seasons.

A closer early in his career with the Rangers, Leclerc has landed as a volatile middle reliever in recent years. He misses a ton of bats (30.9% strikeout rate, 14.1% swinging strike percentage) while struggling to throw strikes consistently. Leclerc made 64 appearances with a 4.32 earned run average this year.

Loáisiga gets a ton of ground-balls when he’s at his best. Durability has been an issue, though. He only made three appearances before undergoing season-ending UCL surgery in April.

López pitched well for the Cubs down the stretch after his controversial exit from the Mets. He finished the year with a 2.89 ERA over 53 combined innings. López had roughly league average strikeout and walk rates while getting ground-balls at a strong 51% clip.

Middleton lost the entire season — and potentially his St. Louis tenure — to flexor tendon surgery. In 2023, he struck out more than 30% of opponents with a 3.38 ERA in 50 2/3 innings.

The Tigers released Miller last week. He had pitched to a 4.53 ERA over 55 2/3 innings. Miller threw a lot of strikes but had a pedestrian 21.8% strikeout percentage.

Neris walked a tightrope with his command throughout his time with the Cubs. Chicago released him late in the summer before he would vest a $9MM player option for next season. Neris returned to his old stomping grounds in Houston, where he dialed in his command but struggled with home runs in a small sample. He wrapped the season with 59 1/3 innings of 4.10 ERA ball with a strikeout rate just below 25% and a 10.8% walk percentage.

Ottavino continues plugging away as he nears his 40th birthday. He struck out 28.6% of opponents with a 4.34 ERA over 56 innings this year. It’s a slight step back from his 2023 production but Ottavino still misses a lot of bats and shouldn’t have an issue finding another big league deal.

Sims had a 3.57 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate across 35 1/3 innings for the Reds going into the trade deadline. As was the case with García, his production tanked after being moved to the Red Sox. Sims allowed 10 runs with more walks than strikeouts across 14 innings for the Sox.

Smith has been a solid middle innings arm for the Mets over his career. He had a 3.06 ERA in 19 appearances early this year before suffering an elbow injury that required a UCL reconstruction.

Stanek sits in the upper 90s and misses a lot of bats. His command comes and goes and he has allowed more than four earned runs per nine in consecutive seasons. Stanek pitched to a 4.88 ERA through 55 1/3 frames between the Mariners and Mets this season.

Strickland inked a minor league deal with the Angels and cracked the MLB roster in early April. He was a quietly valuable bullpen piece for Ron Washington, working 73 1/3 innings of 3.31 ERA ball in his first major league action in two years. Strickland’s 19.4% strikeout rate is going to limit interest, but he has a shot at a big league deal this time.

Swing Options

Anderson has been a starter for most of his career. He worked almost entirely in relief this year between the Red Sox and Rangers. Anderson pitched to a 5.40 ERA with a 16.5% strikeout rate through 58 1/3 frames as a mop-up option. He’ll be limited to minor league deals.

Signed by the Brewers to a $7MM deal as a starter, Junis suffered an early-season shoulder injury and pitched mostly in relief upon returning. He split his time between Milwaukee and the Reds, as Cincinnati added him in the Frankie Montas deal. Junis turned in a 2.69 ERA across 67 innings covering 24 appearances. He demonstrated excellent control but didn’t maintain the strikeout stuff he’d shown over his breakout 2023 season in San Francisco. Junis will collect a $3MM buyout on an $8MM mutual option — he’s likely to decline his end of the deal — and could get interest in starting and relief roles this winter.

Ross made it back to the majors after Tommy John surgery robbed him of the 2022-23 seasons. He missed a couple months with a back injury but had decent results for the Brewers when healthy. He turned in a 3.77 ERA with slightly below-average strikeout and walk marks across 74 innings.

Soroka was bombed over nine starts to begin the season. The White Sox moved him to the bullpen in the middle of May. He was quietly dominant after being kicked into relief, where he struck out 39% of batters faced with a 2.75 ERA over 36 innings. Soroka walked an alarming 13% of opponents out of the ’pen, so it wasn’t without some concern, but he could’ve been a key deadline target for teams looking to add swing-and-miss to the late innings. Unfortunately, he suffered a shoulder strain around the All-Star Break and didn’t return until the final week of the season. Soroka is just 27, so perhaps there are teams that believe they can recapture some of the upside that made him an All-Star starting pitcher before his Achilles injuries with the Braves. The whiffs will surely have a lot of clubs intrigued if he’s willing to sign as a pure reliever.

Stripling struggled for the second straight year. He lost his spot in the A’s rotation midway through the season. Stripling finished the year with an ERA slightly north of 6.00 through 85 1/3 innings. He’s likely looking at minor league offers.

A starter for most of his career, Turnbull was pushed to the bullpen early in the year with the Phillies. He’d outperformed Taijuan Walker and looked poised to seize the fifth starter job before suffering a lat strain that ended his regular season in late June. He was excellent before the injury, working to a 2.65 ERA while striking out 26% of opponents through 54 1/3 innings. He could make it back for Philadelphia’s playoff push.

Ureña pitched well enough to hold a roster spot with the Rangers all year. The former Marlin put up a 3.80 ERA in 109 innings spanning 33 appearances. His strikeout and walk numbers aren’t good, but he kept the ball on the ground half the time an opponent made contact. Ureña could get a low-base MLB deal.

Depth Types

Club Options

The O’s hold an $8MM option on Domínguez that comes with a $500K buyout. It’s a $7.5MM call that feels it could go either way. Domínguez didn’t have a great overall regular season, allowing a 4.45 ERA through 58 2/3 frames. He had a sub-4.00 mark after the Orioles acquired him from Philadelphia at the deadline. Domínguez picked up 10 saves while fanning nearly 29% of batters faced for the O’s. He has high-leverage stuff with inconsistent results over the past two seasons.

The Braves reacquired Jackson from the Giants at the deadline. He carried a 5.40 ERA over 35 frames at the time. Atlanta was hoping for a rebound, and while that happened to some extent, it probably wasn’t what they had in mind. Jackson posted a 4.50 ERA over 18 innings in his return. He finished the regular season with a 5.09 mark through 53 frames. Jackson misses enough bats that he could command a big league deal, but the $5MM difference between his $7MM salary and the $2MM buyout is probably too hefty for the team’s liking.

Maton scuffled early in the year after signing a late free agent deal with the Rays. The Mets landed him in early July. He has turned things around in Queens, working to a 2.51 ERA with a near-27% strikeout rate in 28 2/3 innings down the stretch. The Mets can keep Maton for $7.75MM or buy him out for $250K. Considering how well he pitched down the stretch, they’ll likely bring him back.

The Yankees hold a $5MM option on Trivino. They’ll decline it. Trivino was rehabbing 2023 Tommy John surgery and battled elbow and shoulder issues this year. It was a lost season that could lead him to take a minor league contract this time around.

Weaver struggled between 2020-23, yet the Yankees signed him to a big league deal in January. The move was met with plenty of skepticism but has worked out brilliantly. Weaver has provided the Yanks 84 innings of 2.89 ERA ball while fanning more than 31% of batters faced. He goes into October having taken the closer role from Holmes. A $2.5MM club option for next season only sweetens the deal. This is easily getting picked up.

Player Options

Martinez has a $12MM option for next season. He has indicated he’s uncertain on his opt-out decision, but it’d be very surprising if he didn’t retest the market. He continued to thrive in a swing role for the Reds, working to a 3.10 ERA over 142 1/3 innings. Martinez started 16 of 42 outings. He should land another multi-year deal with a realistic shot at three years and more than $30MM. Neither the Padres nor the Reds gave Martinez an Opening Day rotation spot, but he could find that opportunity somewhere this offseason.

Pagán has a similarly easy call as his Cincinnati teammate, albeit in the opposite direction. He’ll almost certainly exercise his $8MM option to stay with the Reds. Pagán posted a 4.50 ERA over 38 innings around a midseason lat injury. He had strong strikeout and walk numbers but issued a few too many home runs (1.42 HR/9) — essentially the story of his entire career.

Stratton has a $4.5MM player option on the second season of his two-year deal with Kansas City. He’ll be taking it after struggling to a 5.55 ERA with a 17.1% strikeout percentage during his first season.

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2025

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Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 14 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

The service time figures included are not official.  Also, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.

One other note: it’s increasingly common for teams to negotiate one-year deals with club options or mutual options covering an additional arbitration season. We’ve noted all of the players who have an option for the 2025 season under the terms of a prior agreement. If the team buys out that option, the player does not become a free agent. He simply is paid whatever buyout (if any) was agreed upon under the terms of the prior agreement and heads back through the arbitration process again this winter.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.  Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, and our agency database.

The projections:

Angels (12)

Astros (10)

Athletics (5)

Blue Jays (10)

Braves (6)

Brewers (10)

Cardinals (6)

Cubs (14)

Diamondbacks (8)

Dodgers (9)

Giants (4)

Guardians (9)

Marlins (6)

Mariners (12)

Mets (8)

Nationals (9)

Orioles (15)

Padres (8)

Phillies (9)

Pirates (9)

Rangers (5)

Rays (12)

Red Sox (3)

Reds (10)

Rockies (10)

Royals (10)

Tigers (11)

Twins (13)

White Sox (9)

Yankees (10)

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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After more than three years of rebuilding, the Nationals enter the offseason with a very clean long-term payroll outlook, young core players emerging at multiple spots on the roster, and a front office that sounds motivated to get back into contention sooner than later.

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Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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The Rockies just wrapped up their sixth straight losing season and second straight with over 100 losses. There are some internal reasons for optimism but they have a difficult path out of the National League West basement.

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