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Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals are entering the third full season of their rebuild, and their lackluster offseason was emblematic of a team more focused on the long-term picture than even feigning an attempt at competing in 2024.

Major League Signings

2024 spend: $9.25MM
Total spend: $9.25MM

Option Decisions

  • Declined $3.3MM club option on CF Victor Robles (Robles was arbitration-eligible and remains with the team after agreeing to a lower-cost one-year deal)

Trades and Waiver Claims

  • Selected SS Nasim Nunez from the Marlins in the Rule 5 Draft

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Nationals lost 91 games last season and entered the offseason with a fairly modest $110MM committed to the 2024 roster. With ample room to add starting pitching and players at various positions around the diamond, the stage looked to be set for some offseason dealings. General manager Mike Rizzo seemed to suggest as much early at last year’s Winter Meetings.

“We’ve got several holes to fill,” the veteran general manager said. “We’ve got our work cut out for us this year, and I think we’re going to take our aggressive approach when it suits us and wait for the market when it suits us. I think we’re going to be busy here. … I think we’re going to be aggressive again this year looking for a bat that can play the corner infield, be it third base or first base or DH or left field, or a combination of all three of those. And then we’ll resort back to getting more pitching.”

Rizzo went on to indicate that he’d be comfortable offering multiple years to free agents “in the right situation.” It was an encouraging slate of comments for Nats fans who have been tracking a series of ballyhooed prospects throughout the current rebuild and looked to the 2024 season as a year that could see the team begin to turn the corner.

Fast forward several months, however, and many of those claims ring hollow. The Nationals spent under $10MM in free agency, didn’t make a single trade and, despite having the No. 5 waiver priority in baseball, didn’t place a claim on a single player all offseason.

Washington did indeed add some corner bats, as Rizzo alluded to, but the impact of those acquisitions doesn’t look to be particularly high. For the second straight season, the Nats bought low on a non-tendered former top prospect to take over at third base. Unlike Jeimer Candelario, however, Nick Senzel isn’t simply coming off one down season. The former No. 2 overall draft pick has never had an average offensive season in parts of five MLB campaigns. He’s a career .239/.302/.369 hitter — about 23% worse than average, by measure of wRC+, which weights for the hitter-friendly home park in which Senzel has spent his entire career to date (Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park).

Health has been a major roadblock for Senzel, who’s been on the injured list seven times in his big league career (to say nothing of multiple notable injuries from his prospect days). If the Nats can finally get Senzel healthy, he’d hardly be the first former top prospect to thrive in a change of scenery. He’s still just 28 years old, and the Nats will only owe him a $2MM salary this season. If he performs well, he’ll be a viable trade deadline chip but also could be a multi-year piece for Washington. Because he’s three weeks shy of five full years of MLB service, Senzel will be controllable through 2025 via arbitration.

The Nationals have already said that Senzel will be the team’s primary third baseman, which displaces their own in-house former top prospect, Carter Kieboom. He’s out of options and now ostensibly looking at a bench role. It shouldn’t come as a surprise if Kieboom himself is moved in a change-of-scenery deal later this spring — perhaps even following a DFA. It’s understandable that the Nats feel ready to move on from Kieboom after myriad injuries and parts of four unproductive big league seasons — but it’s at least a bit surprising that they’re doing so in favor of a player with a very similar career trajectory to date.

Across the diamond, it appears Joey Gallo will get another opportunity to try to recapture the Rangers form that’s increasingly becoming a distant memory. He’s still just 30 years old, but Gallo’s bat has cratered since being traded from the Rangers to the Yankees back in 2021. The slugger belted 110 home runs in just 1716 plate appearances from 2018-21, including a pair of 40-tater seasons, but since being traded, Gallo has a .166/.293/.396 batting line. He’s still walked in 14.5% of his plate appearances and hit for plenty of power, but his already problematic strikeout rate has ballooned to 40.5% in a significant sample of 970 plate appearances.

Gallo won’t cost the Nationals much, but at this point he’s two and a half seasons removed from being a productive hitter. If he goes on a huge first-half run, he could build up some trade value, but even if he’s hitting reasonably well, he’ll be viewed as a volatile rental whose ’21-’23 track record makes it tough for a team to surrender much of note in a trade.

The remainder of the lineup is largely set with in-house names. Shortstop CJ Abrams posted an ugly .300 OBP last season but saw his strikeout and walk rates improve in the season’s second half. He’s also one of baseball’s most impactful baserunners, swiping a hefty 47 bags in 51 tries, and quietly connected on 18 home runs last year. There’s legitimate breakout potential for him this season if he can continue to build on last year’s second-half gains in his K/BB profile.

On the other side of the bag, Luis Garcia Jr. will reprise his role as Washington’s everyday second baseman in what figures to be a make-or-break year of sorts. The 23-year-old was one of the sport’s top infield prospects before making his debut as a 20-year-old in 2020, and while he’s shown off the premium bat-to-ball skills that helped him garner praise (12.4% strikeout rate in ’23), he hasn’t done much else. Last year’s .266/.304/.385 slash (84 wRC+) is right in line with his career .265/.295/.395 output (85 wRC+). He’s been a sub-par defender thus far and hasn’t hit for power or provided baserunning value. He’s young enough to take another step forward, but if it doesn’t happen in what’ll be his fifth season with big league playing time, the Nats might have to look elsewhere for a long-term answer.

Then again, one need only look to center field to show the organization’s patience with homegrown talents. Victor Robles will be back for an eighth season despite not showing much since a promising start to his career. From 2017-19, the once-elite prospect — he ranked among the top 10 in all of MLB at Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus — hit .258/.327/.431 with premium defense. Dating back to 2020, however, he’s a .225/.302/.313 hitter (72 wRC+) in nearly 1100 plate appearances. Back problems limited him to 36 games last year, and his typically excellent defensive grades plummeted. The free agent market offered some affordable alternatives (Kevin Kiermaier, Harrison Bader, old friend Michael A. Taylor), but the Nats opted to stick with Robles, who’ll reach six years of service in ’24 and become a free agent next winter. If he’s healthy and performing even reasonably well this summer, he’ll be a trade candidate.

In right field, the Nats will again give Lane Thomas everyday at-bats and hope he can build on last year’s .268/.315/.468 showing. Thomas hit 28 homers, swiped 20 bags and played a fine right field. He’s only controlled through 2025 and was the subject of plenty of trade chatter last summer. That’ll likely be the case again come July.

Behind the plate, Keibert Ruiz will again serve as the primary catcher. Ruiz popped 18 homers, struck out in just 10.3% of his plate appearances and hit .260/.308/.409 (93 wRC+). He’s already signed long-term under an eight-year extension.

Joey Meneses is likely to open the season as the Nats’ primary designated hitter, but some of the shine has come off the late-blooming slugger after an out-of-the-blue breakout in 2022. Menseses hit .324/.367/.543 with 13 homers in just 240 plate appearances as a rookie in ’22. He saw nearly triple the at-bats in ’23 but still hit just 13 homers with an overall .275/.321/.401 output. For a bat-only player, that won’t cut it moving forward.

Left field is the only real spot that’s up for grabs heading into the season. The Nats dished out minor league deals to Jesse Winker and Eddie Rosario in hopes one can step up to fill that spot. Rosario is the more capable defender and is coming off a better 2023 showing. Winker, at his peak, was the more productive of the two — at least against right-handed pitching. Neither will cost much if they make the roster. It’s unlikely either will return much in a potential deadline swap, even if they’re performing well, but the pair of veterans gives the Nats a short-term bridge to prospects like James Wood, Dylan Crews and Robert Hassell III.

On the pitching side of the roster, the Nats will effectively roll out the same staff that produced some of the worst results in the game last year. Zach Davies, another minor league signee, is the only addition of note. The Nats have plenty of payroll space but will eschew even modestly priced upgrades in the vein of Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger, both of whom remain unsigned.

That will pave the way for a group of Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams to lead the team in starts again, pending any contributions from Davies and top prospect Cade Cavalli, who’ll eventually return from 2023 Tommy John surgery — likely on a limited workload. Washington is lacking in top-end pitching prospects beyond Cavalli, though names like DJ Herz, Jackson Rutledge and Mitchell Parker could factor into the rotation at some point.

The hope will be that Gray, Gore and Cavalli can all take meaningful steps forward, but there’s reason to express skepticism despite the former top prospect pedigree of each. Gray has never walked fewer than 10.5% of his opponents in his two and a half MLB seasons, and last year’s 20.5% strikeout rate was a career-low. He finally managed to somewhat curb his highest-in-MLB home run rate (2.30 HR/9 in ’22, 1.25 in ’23), but he did so at the expense of strikeouts and more free passes. Gore was immensely homer-prone (1.78 HR/9) but missed bats at a strong level and did reach a new career-high innings total (136 1/3). Cavalli was viewed by some scouts as a future reliever before he had Tommy John surgery, and he’ll now be under a tightly managed workload.

Despite Rizzo’s earlier proclamations about needing to add pitching help and being willing to make multi-year offers in the right setting, he changed his tune dramatically just a couple months later: “I just couldn’t find that starting pitcher that was going to impact us at this time, for not only the right amount of years but the right salary at this time,” Rizzo said in mid-February.

It’s a puzzling statement when each of Alex Wood, Jakob Junis, Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty and Martin Perez inked one-year contracts (for under $10MM, in the case of Wood, Junis and Perez). Each of Kenta Maeda ($24MM), Nick Martinez ($26MM), Michael Wacha ($32MM) and Sean Manaea ($28MM) inked two-year deals with prices that would’ve kept the Nationals’ payroll in the $140MM range, if not a bit lower. The Nats peaked at a $197MM payroll in 2019 and were at $135MM or more in each season from 2014-22.

It’s a similar story in the bullpen, where myriad arms signed short-term deals that the Nationals could accommodate. The Nats’ only pickup was righty Dylan Floro, who has a nice track record but struggled in ’23 while battling a wildly unfortunate .401 average on balls in play despite better-than-average hard contact numbers. Floro is a perfectly sensible pickup, possibly even a bargain, but the Nats have such an undefined bullpen that it’s surprising he was the only one.

Between Floro and the trio of Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey and Tanner Rainey — all controlled only through 2025 — Washington will have plenty of relievers to peddle this summer. Veterans Matt Barnes and Richard Bleier could work their way into that group after signing minor league deals. Another one-year pickup could’ve given them another, though, and while the return on such investments is rarely of note, the Nats clearly had the payroll capacity to at least take a shot.

Perhaps the general dearth of activity stems from uncertainty regarding the future of the team. The Lerner family was reportedly exploring a sale of the club for the past couple seasons before announcing in late February that those efforts were being halted. It’s plenty feasible that current ownership handcuffed Rizzo and his staff in fairly significant fashion this winter, not wanting to take on long-term commitments while exploring a sale of the team. Rizzo, the rest of the front office, and ownership would never publicly state as much, but it’s fair to wonder given the minimal payroll outlay and the number of areas on the roster that remain ripe for an upgrade.

Regardless of the reasoning, the results are what they are. The 2024 season looks like another bleak year for Nats fans, one plagued by lackluster pitching performances and subpar offensive production. But the ongoing rebuild could begin to bear fruit later this season, setting the stage for a more interesting ’25 campaign. Wood and Crews will likely be in the majors by then. Corbin will be off the books. Cavalli could be both healthy and largely free of an innings cap. And the Nats only have $43MM on that year’s payroll, perhaps setting the stage for a more aggressive run through free agency following the 2024 campaign. That’s shaping up to be a deep free agent class, headlined by old friend Juan Soto in addition to Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Alex Bregman — among many others. This offseason was as quiet as they come, but next winter could be more interesting.

Offseason In Review: Oakland Athletics

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The rebuilding A’s made only a few moves to address their big league roster, as much of the offseason news continued to focus on the club’s impending departure from Oakland.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $13MM
Total spending: $13MM

Option Decisions

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

A long and twisted series of events that leads to finding a green armadillo in Las Vegas might sound like the plot of another Hangover sequel, yet it could also describe the Athletics’ relocation efforts.  MLB owners gave unanimous approval in November to the franchise’s plan to relocate, and the team recently released some eye-popping renderings of their proposed “spherical armadillo” ballpark on the Strip, which is planned to open for the start of the 2028 season.

Much has yet to be settled until then, including the rather important detail of where exactly the A’s will be playing during the 2025-27 seasons.  Next year’s edition of the Offseason In Review could be devoted to the Salt Lake City Athletics or the Sacramento Athletics, as the Athletics have been exploring alternate cities as their short-term home.  Since NBC Sports California could opt out of its broadcast contract with the A’s if the club moves out of the Bay Area, the team’s first option is to extend its lease at the Coliseum beyond its current end date following the 2024 season, yet the city of Oakland is (unsurprisingly) not too enthused about continuing the relationship.  At least, not without possibly trying to negotiate a new expansion team out of the league in exchange for letting the Athletics temporarily stay put.

Even the Vegas end of the move isn’t exactly solidified.  The league is pushing so hard for the Athletics’ relocation that it doesn’t seem likely that the move would fall apart altogether, though questions remain — a Nevada teachers’ union has filed a lawsuit challenging the state’s funding law that earmarked $380MM in public money towards the ballpark, the overall uncertainty about the new stadium’s financing and construction plans, and the fact that Las Vegas citizens seem mixed at best about the A’s coming to town.

Between all these factors and the Oakland fans’ open disdain towards owner John Fisher, it seems like several more years of awkwardness are in store before things start to turn for the Athletics organization.  Finding a silver lining in the on-field product seems like a longshot, given how the A’s have gone 110-214 over the last two seasons and seem destined for another triple-digit showing in the loss column in 2024.

Given how the Athletics have already dealt most of their prominent (and most expensive) veterans, GM David Forst didn’t do much in the way of continuing the fire sale this winter.  Forst said during the Winter Meetings that Aledmys Diaz, Seth Brown, Paul Blackburn weren’t likely to be traded, and while it can be assumed that the A’s are always listening to trade offers, the team still needs players on the roster.  And, some stronger performances from any of these more experienced names in the first half of the 2024 campaign could well bolster their trade value heading into the deadline.  Blackburn might be a key name to watch in this regard, since he is a free agent after the 2025 season and teams are forever looking to add pitching.

The rotation was a need for the A’s themselves this winter, resulting in a couple of familiar Bay Area names joining the club.  Alex Wood signed in free agency after spending the last three years with the Giants, and the A’s also lined up with the Giants on a rare trade between the local rivals in order to bring Ross Stripling to Oakland.  These two moves represent the Athletics’ biggest expenditures of the offseason, as Wood will earn $8.5MM on a one-year deal, and the A’s are covering $9MM of the $12.5MM owed to Stripling on the final year of his contract.

Neither veteran was too pleased about their usage within the Giants’ patchwork pitching tactics, but Wood and Stripling will get plenty of opportunity to work as full-time starters in Oakland.  Wood started 12 of 29 games in 2023, working as a swingman, bulk pitcher behind an opener, or in a piggyback capacity while posting a 4.33 ERA over 97 2/3 innings.  Wood’s traditionally solid strikeout and walk rates both plummeted to well below the league average last year, though it could be argued that his ever-shifting roles (and five weeks missed due to a pair of stints on the injured list) might’ve contributed to these struggles.

Stripling had an even tougher time of things with a 5.36 ERA over 89 innings, and injuries and a hybrid rotation/bullpen deployment were also a story of his season.  The right-hander did pitch better as the season went on, however, which could hint that he might have a smoother time of things in a more stable capacity as a starting pitcher.

Returning to trade deadline possibilities, a return to form for either Wood or Stripling will surely make them prime candidates to change uniforms at midseason, which could open up rotation jobs for some of the Athletics’ younger arms.  Some of this group (Joe Boyle, Kyle Muller, and Rule 5 Draft pick Mitch Spence) are already competing for the fifth starter’s role, which is open since both Luis Medina and Ken Waldichuk will begin the season on the injured list.  It remains to be seen when exactly either hurler might be back on the mound, underscoring the Athletics’ reasoning for acquiring experienced arms like Wood and Stripling.

Experience was also the watchword for the Athletics’ bullpen additions.  Of the seven pitchers who made the most appearances for Oakland in 2023, only Lucas Erceg is still with the team, so some veteran help was needed for a relief corps that is thin on Major League innings.  Trevor Gott and Scott Alexander signed low-cost one-year deals and might have hidden-gem potential, since both righties outperformed their ERAs last season.  Gott had a 4.19 ERA over 58 innings with the Mariners and Mets while not receiving any BABIP (.343) luck, while Alexander’s 3.75 SIERA was well below his 4.66 ERA in 48 1/3 innings for San Francisco.  A .325 BABIP was particularly harmful to an extreme groundball pitcher like Alexander, whose numbers might normalize if he gets better fortune with balls in play.

Gott and Alexander figure to work in setup roles no matter who (if anyone) winds up as the Athletics’ full-time closer.  Top prospect Mason Miller is making a bid for the job with a very impressive Spring Training performance, as the A’s are keeping Miller in the bullpen this year as a way of easing him back to action after a long string of injuries.  Erceg or Dany Jimenez could also be in the ninth inning mix.

The A’s mostly stood pat on the position-player side, though Tony Kemp (who signed with the Reds) was a notable departure after four seasons in Oakland.  The newly-acquired Abraham Toro is something of a replacement for both Kemp and Kevin Smith, as Toro has experience at first base, second base, and third base, and can step into the corner outfield in a pinch.  Third base figures to be Toro’s most steady position, and Toro and Diaz figure to share the hot corner until prospect Darell Hernaiz makes his expected Major League debut this season.

Zack Gelof, Nick Allen, and Ryan Noda should form the rest of the starting infield, with Brent Rooker as the primary DH and one of Shea Langeliers or Tyler Soderstrom behind the plate.  Brown, JJ Bleday, and speedster Esteury Ruiz are the projected starting outfielders, with rookie Lawrence Butler looking for a larger role and former Athletic Stephen Piscotty back on a minor league deal and looking to get back to the majors after spending 2023 in the White Sox farm system.  Miguel Andujar is an interesting wild card on the roster, as the former Yankees star prospect is looking for a fresh start after being claimed off waivers from the Pirates, and he hit well after a September call-up with the Pirates last season.

It isn’t the most inspiring lineup on paper, which is why the A’s will be hard-pressed to avoid the AL West basement.  There is some talent here, however, as Noda, Rooker, and the rookie Gelof all delivered well above-average production in 2023.  Gelof’s 133 wRC+ (from a .267/.337/.504 slash line and 14 homers) came over just 300 plate appearances, though it was enough to make the second baseman look like a potential building block for an A’s team in desperate need of some true cornerstones.

A rebuilding team is only going to spend so much on veteran players anyway, yet the Athletics’ projected payroll is the lowest in baseball by a substantial margin.  As per RosterResource’s projections, the A’s currently have only $59.3MM on the books for 2024 — well behind the $82MM in slated spending for the Pirates, who rank 29th of the 30 teams.

Fisher has been adverse to spending even when the A’s were fielding contenders, yet even beyond the lack of available money, Forst’s attempts to add any reinforcements were naturally complicated by all of the negativity surrounding the Athletics’ forthcoming move.  For players who had leverage in determining their next team, there wasn’t much interest in joining a franchise entering a lame-duck season in front of a fanbase that is understandably hostile towards the organization.  It perhaps isn’t surprising that so many of the Athletics’ additions this winter have prior experience playing for the Giants if not the A’s themselves, so the new faces are at least familiar with the Bay Area and the unusual situation facing the Athletics this coming season.

If the Athletics’ 57th season in Oakland will indeed be their last, it is probably going to be an inauspicious ending to a history that includes the “Swingin’ A’s” powerhouse teams of the 1970s, Rickey Henderson and the Bash Brothers in the late ’80s, and the Moneyball underdogs of the last two decades.  The focus will be on letting the kids play and hopefully building some momentum in the rebuild towards 2025 and beyond, no matter where the team ends up playing.

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals are looking to prove that last year was a fluke. They bolstered their pitching staff to help them bounce back in 2024, but did they do enough?

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $42MM
Total spending: $107MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

It’s very rare for the Cardinals to go into an offseason on the heels of a massive disappointment. In this millennium, they have missed the playoffs eight times and only twice finished below .500. Last year was one of those two, as they went 71-91 and finished fifth in the National League Central for the first time ever.

The rotation was a clear target area for change, as the club’s starters posted a collective 5.08 earned run average last year, a mark better than just four other clubs. Three spots were opened by last year’s trades of impending free agents Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty, as well as the retirement of Adam Wainwright.

There were rumors that the club may use its position player surplus to swing a trade that would upgrade the rotation, but they instead jumped in the free agent market early. By the end of November, they had already signed Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.

Whether that was the best way to go about upgrading the rotation is a matter of debate, especially with the club having also been connected to exciting names like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dylan Cease and Tyler Glasnow at times this winter. Lynn will turn 37 years old this year and is coming off a rough campaign in 2023. He posted a 5.73 ERA between the White Sox and Dodgers while allowing 44 home runs, plus another four long balls in his one postseason start. Gibson has been a fairly reliable innings eater but doesn’t have much upside at this point in his career. He’s now 36 and finished each of the past two seasons with an ERA near 5.00.

Gray is the most exciting of their pickups, as he just finished second to Gerrit Cole in American League Cy Young voting after a 2.79 ERA season with the Twins. But there’s some downside risk with Gray as well, as the Cards may have made a proverbial buy-high move. Gray’s 184 innings in 2023 were his highest tally since 2015, as he has had various injuries to deal with over the years. He’s now 34 years old and already going into 2024 with a health concern, battling a hamstring strain that’s left him questionable for Opening Day.

Some fans wanted the club to continue adding to the rotation, especially with Steven Matz having struggled so much since signing a four-year deal in St. Louis. The club’s interest in Cease reportedly lingered even after making those three signings, but nothing came together. That leaves Matz still a part of the projected rotation, especially with Gray’s injury, and the Cards hoping for a bounce back.

The much-discussed position player surplus didn’t end up factoring into the rotation, but it did affect the pitching staff in other ways. There was rumored interest in players like Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson, but the Cards instead flipped Tyler O’Neill as their biggest trade this winter. O’Neill, who is an impending free agent and previously clashed with manager Oliver Marmol, was flipped to Boston for Nick Robertson and Victor Santos. Robertson should be able to help the club’s bullpen right away, as he already has 22 1/3 big league innings under his belt. Santos adds some non-roster depth for the rotation, but he missed all of 2023 due to injury and has fewer than 45 Triple-A innings on his ledger.

The club made another move that sent out a position player for a reliever, as Richie Palacios was flipped to the Rays and Andrew Kittredge. It may have been underwhelming for some fans as Kittredge is turning 34, missed most of the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery and is a mere rental. But Kittredge was utterly dominant in 2021 and the Cards had just grabbed Palacios off the DFA pile in June.

The bullpen was padded in other ways, as Middleton was brought aboard on a one-year, $6MM deal in free agency after a resurgent showing in 2023. The Cards also grabbed Riley O’Brien in a small trade and selected Ryan Fernandez in the Rule 5 draft.

On the position player side of things, very little has changed from last year, apart from those moves. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado will still be the anchors at the infield corners. The big question is the shortstop position, as the Paul DeJong era is now over. The club is hoping top prospect Masyn Winn is the shortstop of the future, but he’s just about to turn 22 years old and hit only .172/.230/.238 in his first 137 major league plate appearances. There’s probably a bit of bad luck in there, since his .196 batting average on balls in play in that time was well below league average. He also posted a solid slash line of .288/.359/.474 in Triple-A last year.

The club has plenty of faith that he can post better results in a larger sample of work, but they also added a bit of insurance. Long-time Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford was signed to a modest one-year deal, though Crawford and the club’s decision makers made it clear that Winn is the starter. Crawford is merely around to offer guidance from his years of experience, and to serve as a safety net in the event of an injury or perhaps Winn not securing the job as hoped.

Winn’s emergence pushed Tommy Edman to center field, which is partially what caused such a logjam on the grass and led to the O’Neill and Palacios trades. On paper, Edman was going to be in center, flanked by Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar, with Carlson, Burleson and Donovan also in the mix for playing time. Those plans are currently on hold, as both Edman and Nootbaar are questionable for Opening Day due to injuries, though that will hopefully just be a short-term situation.

The club also hopes to have bolstered its bench by bringing in old friend Matt Carpenter. His 2022 renaissance didn’t continue into 2023, so San Diego traded him to Atlanta in a salary-dumping deal. Atlanta took on Carpenter’s salary to get lefty Ray Kerr, then promptly released Carpenter. That freed him up to return to St. Louis, with the Cards only having to pay the prorated league minimum for any time he’s on the roster. If he can have yet another renaissance, they will have found lightning in a bottle. If not, they can move on without really having lost much of anything beyond the opportunity cost.

Though the club is making an earnest effort to return to contention in 2024, they also did little to commit themselves beyond this year. Other than Gray, all of their signings were one-year deals. They have some interest in extending Paul Goldschmidt, though president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has said they may kick those talks into the season until they see how things are going.

“I think right now, I think everybody just wants to see how this season starts. You know, obviously, we want to get off on the right track, and then we can address things like that,” Mozeliak said.

Goldschmidt is an impending free agent and will turn 37 during the upcoming season. The club obviously likes to keep franchise legends around, with Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina and Wainwright all running out the clock in St. Louis in recent years. But with Goldschmidt, perhaps the club wants to wait and see if their planned bounceback season actually comes to fruition before they start committing future dollars. If they fall back again, Goldschmidt could be one of the best rental bats available at the summer deadline. They may want to keep that door open.

What also may be an issue is the club’s TV revenue uncertainty. The Cards are one of the clubs who is under contract with Diamond Sports Group, who once seemed like they were going to cease operations after 2024. The company has managed to stay afloat for now by selling some streaming rights to Amazon, but it’s still unclear how viable their long-term plan is. The Cards get over $70MM per year from Diamond and may want closure on that situation before making big decisions about the future.

In the end, it amounts to a half-in, half-out offseason. They made one splashy move by signing Gray but otherwise kept various long-term paths open. Are they good enough to compete this year? How much TV money is coming in? Will they keep Goldschmidt around or pivot to a post-Goldy era?

There’s a lot that needs to be revealed this year, but for now, the club patched their biggest holes. That may be enough in the NL Central, where there’s no clear frontrunner and it’s arguable that each of the five teams are in position to potentially surge ahead. Though the signings of Lynn and Gibson weren’t as sexy as getting someone like Cease or Yamamoto, both FanGraphs and PECOTA think the Cards are now the best team in the division, so maybe a couple of floor-raising moves and some bouncebacks will be enough to take the Central in the end.

Free Agent Faceoff: Adam Duvall/Tommy Pham

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The Dodgers and Padres are set to kick off the regular season with the Korea Series in Seoul less than two weeks from today, and MLB’s 28 other clubs will follow suit the week afterwards. At this late stage of Spring Training, it’s rare for free agents of particular note to remain available on the market, but a handful of quality players linger on the open market nonetheless. That group is led by front-of-the-rotation southpaws Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, though there’s a crop of interesting lower-level pieces available as well, ranging from veteran slugger J.D. Martinez to right-handed hurler Michael Lorenzen.

While the market is deepest in starting pitching at this point in the winter, there’s one other position where teams with a need will find a number of options worth consideration still available: the outfield. Michael A. Taylor is generally regarded as the best player remaining on the market in that group due to his superlative center field defense and a strong platform season in Minnesota that saw him slug a career-best 21 home runs. With that being said, a pair of veteran bats also remain available for teams hoping to add a bit more pop to their lineup or bench mix at this late stage in the offseason: Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham. The pair are both right-handed hitting outfielders with ten seasons of MLB experience under their belt across a combined ten different clubs. The duo also both took one-year deals last winter following a down 2022 season before bouncing back in 2023 to post above-average production at the plate, and are only five months apart in age.

Similar as they are, there are some key differences between the two. Pham has been the much more consistent regular of the two throughout his career, with his 481 trips to the plate in 2023 being his lowest figure in a 162-game season since he became a full-time player in 2017. Duvall, by contrast, has reached 450 plate appearances in a season just three times in his career, most recently during the 2021 season. In addition to having more experience under his belt, Pham has been the better hitter overall for his career with a triple slash of .259/.351/.435 (116 wRC+) as opposed to Duvall’s career .232/.291/.472 (98 wRC+) slash line. The difference in the pair’s career numbers is particularly noticeable against southpaws, whom Pham has posted an .834 OPS against for his career compared to Duvall’s .770 OPS against.

While availability on the field and career numbers seem to clearly favor Pham, Duvall isn’t without advantages of his own. Despite the disparity in career numbers, he’s actually been a slightly superior hitter in recent years, with a .231/.288/.487 slash line that translates to a 104 wRC+ since the start of the 2020 season. Over that same time period, Pham has slashed just .238/.325/.392 with a 99 wRC+. In addition to the slightly stronger offensive production in recent seasons, Duvall also offers the ability to play center field, with 1,070 2/3 innings of work at the position over the past three seasons. By contrast, Pham has stuck almost entirely to the outfield corners during that same time frame, starting just 14 games in center since the start of the 2021 season. While Duvall’s glove in center has generally been panned by defensive metrics (-5 DRS, -4 OAA in 2023), the ability to handle the position is surely notable for clubs that value positional flexibility or have a need in center.

While Duvall has been the slightly better offensive player in recent years, his lead over Pham in that regard is hardly commanding. Strong as Duvall’s recent offensive performance has been, his low on-base percentages and 31.5% strikeout rate since the start of the 2021 season leave him reliant on power output for his production at the plate. That’s suited him just fine, as he’s slugged a combined 71 homers over the last three years including a whopping 38 as a full-time regular during the 2021 season. Even so, it’s certainly fair to wonder if teams in search of a regular fixture in their outfield mix would prefer Pham’s more consistent production and stronger plate discipline, with a 24.1% strikeout rate and a strong 10.9% walk rate over the past three seasons in spite of his paltry .158 ISO over that same period.

Advanced metrics certainly look more fondly on Pham’s approach, as evidenced by Pham’s .361 xwOBA in 2023 which not only outstrips his relatively pedestrian .332 wOBA, but also Duvall’s .347 figure. By contrast, Duvall’s xwOBA last season left something to be desired as he posted a figure of just .306. That disparity between Duvall’s strong results and iffy peripheral numbers can be explained in part by his torrid start to the season that saw him slug ten extra-base hits in just eight games, and his relatively pedestrian numbers afterwards that saw him post a wRC+ of just 93 following his return from injury. While it’s certainly possible that Duvall’s wrist injury sapped some of his power upon his return to the field, it’s also worth noting that Duvall’s post-injury numbers are fairly similar to his 2022 performance, where he posted a lackluster 87 wRC+ with peripheral numbers to match.

Given the pair’s number of similarities, the choice between the two players could simply come down to fit on their hypothetical new club for many teams. Organizations looking to bring in a potential regular may be more likely to choose Pham thanks to his track record as an everyday player and more reliable approach at the plate. That being said, a team looking for a contributor off the bench could be more drawn to Duvall’s recent experience at all three outfield spots and his titanic power which can allow him to change the game with a single swing. If your team was to add one of the two veterans to its outfield mix ahead of Opening Day, who would you rather have?

Offseason In Review: New York Mets

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After a disastrous 2023 season, there have been a lot of changes for the Mets. They have a new president of baseball operations, a new manager and plenty of new faces on the roster. With 2024 planned on being a sort of bridge year, the offseason moves ended up staying on the modest side, though there were many of them.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $55.65MM
Total spending: $69.15MM

* Adams’ salary courtesy of the Associated Press

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

What a difference a year can make. Last winter, the Mets re-signed Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Díaz to huge deals and added Justin Verlander and Kodai Senga to their pitching staff, which had them opening 2023 with World Series aspirations. But a series of injuries saw them fall out of contention quickly, which led to a deadline selloff that sent Verlander, Max Scherzer and others packing.

Scherzer had no-trade protection but said after the deal that he was told by the front office that 2024 was going to be something of a transitional year. With the club looking to do a sort of reboot, he decided to take the opportunity to head elsewhere and was able to win a World Series in Texas.

As the Mets became focused on changes, they started at the top of their baseball operations department. David Stearns was hired to be president of baseball operations, a move that had been anticipated for years. Stearns is a New York native who grew up a Mets fan and he stepped down to a lesser role in his final year with the Brewers. That seemed to pave the way for him to jump to the Mets, which came to fruition in October.

General manager Billy Eppler was initially expected to stay on and work under Stearns but he later stepped down. It was revealed that Eppler was under investigation for misuse of the injured list and he didn’t want to be a distraction as that played out. MLB eventually announced that Eppler will be placed on the ineligible list for the entire 2024 season. The Mets have not replaced him to this point, with Stearns atop the decision-making pyramid and several assistant general managers and others helping him out.

Change in the dugout was also on the menu, as one of Stearns’ first moves was to fire manager Buck Showalter. The Mets were connected to the high-profile Craig Counsell drama, which made some sense since Counsell was looking to push managerial salaries as high as possible and Mets’ owner Steve Cohen is famously not shy about spending. Counsell and Stearns also worked together with the Brewers for many years, but the Mets ultimately didn’t seem to be interested in that bidding war, with Counsell landing with the Cubs.

Instead, the Mets pivoted to Carlos Mendoza, who has been a coach with the Yankees for the past 18 years. This is his first managerial gig, which is why his earning power is significantly less than that of Counsell. Mendoza will make a total of $4.5MM over three years while Counsell will be making more than that annually, as he got a five-year, $40MM deal from the Cubbies.

With the front office and dugout leaders selected, the attention turned to the roster. Since the Mets have been so aggressive in past winters, they were connected to some big names like Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. That interest didn’t really align with their plan of dialing things back this winter, but there were reasons to think they might make an exception. Ohtani is a unicorn talent and the ability to sign a player like him had never come up before and likely won’t ever happen again. Yamamoto is also incredibly talented and hit the open market at the age of 25, a situation that’s also fairly unprecedented.

The Mets seemed to at least consider these unique situations but ultimately didn’t land either player, with both of them going to the Dodgers. They made a real run at Yamamoto, reportedly offering the same 12 year, $325MM terms which he accepted from Los Angeles. Once they missed on those two, they seemed to have little interest in other top free agents, instead focusing on guys who could be signed to short-term deals.

The rotation was an obvious focus, with Verlander and Scherzer having been dealt last year. Carlos Carrasco also hit free agency, creating another opening and leaving the Mets with just Senga and José Quintana as established starters. One depth option was also subtracted over the winter when David Peterson underwent hip surgery that will keep him out of action until the middle of 2024.

The Mets’ interest extended to pitchers like Erick Fedde, Lucas Giolito, Hyun Jin Ryu and Shota Imanaga, but they ultimately landed deals with a couple of bounceback candidates. Sean Manaea agreed to a two-year deal with an opt-out on the heels of a poor season with the Giants but one in which he finished strong. If he can carry that over with the Mets, it could be a nice buy-low move for them.

Luis Severino was also brought aboard on a one-year deal in somewhat similar circumstances. He was once arguably an ace but has been battling injuries and poor performance over the past five years. If he can get over his health problems, and the rumors he was tipping his pitches last year, he could also be a nice find.

In addition to those two, the club brought aboard Adrian Houser from the Brewers, the former club of Stearns. Those three were planned to be paired with Quintana and Senga but the latter is going to miss the start of the season due to a posterior capsule strain. The club doesn’t seem like it will bring in any further additions, relying on depth arms to get by until Senga returns, perhaps in May. Tylor Megill is probably the favorite to step in, though Joey Lucchesi and José Buttó are also on the 40-man roster.

In the bullpen, the club deployed a similar strategy of spreading money around to various targets. Adam Ottavino was brought back, while the club also gave roster spots to Jake Diekman, Jorge López, Shintaro Fujinami and Michael Tonkin. They briefly gave a spot to Austin Adams, though he was later outrighted, putting him in the position of providing non-roster depth alongside various minor league signees.

A lot of those guys are inconsistent and/or wild, but the club just needs a couple of them to be in good form to be happy with their relief corps. Edwin Díaz will be coming back after missing all of 2023 due to knee surgery and the club has incumbents Brooks Raley and Drew Smith still on hand as well.

On the position player side of things, the club was mostly focused on marginal moves. They have flirted with J.D. Martinez but he’s still a free agent of this writing. Adding Harrison Bader on a one-year deal was the most significant of the moves they did make, as that pushes Brandon Nimmo into a corner and upgrades the defense. Tyrone Taylor, acquired in the same deal as Houser, also bolsters the group in terms of glovework. He should be in a fourth outfielder role behind Nimmo, Bader and Starling Marte.

On the infield, the club had a bit of a question mark at third base, with Brett Baty struggling in 2023. The Mets were connected to guys like Justin Turner and Gio Urshela this winter but seemed content to leave the spot open as a battle between Baty, Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio. The latter unfortunately suffered a torn ACL and will miss most or perhaps all of this year, but the Mets didn’t pivot to other free agents. They did add Joey Wendle, who could perhaps step in if neither Baty nor Vientos take hold of the spot, but he’ll ideally be in a utility role.

Perhaps the biggest storyline in their position player group this winter was about what they didn’t do. With the club undergoing this sort of retooling and Pete Alonso set for free agency at the end of 2024, there was plenty of speculation about whether the club would consider either a trade or an extension. Ultimately, neither came together and Alonso will go into 2024 in wait-and-see mode. If the club is in contention, he will likely be a big part of that and would be a lock for a qualifying offer at season’s end. If they slip out of the race again, he could find himself as the top rental player available at the deadline.

That situation is a mirror of the club as a whole right now. Despite the frustrations of 2023, the club comes into 2024 looking like a Wild Card contender. The lineup still features incumbents like Alonso, Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, Marte and Francisco Álvarez. Breakouts from Baty and/or Vientos could be a huge help, as could a healthy Bader. Perhaps DJ Stewart can carry forward his hot streak from the second half of last year. The pitching staff isn’t as exciting as last year when they had two future Hall-of-Famers but it could be decent if a few things break right.

There are many ways the 2024 season could go, from surprising contention to another dismal summer and another deadline selloff. As they see how things go in the coming months, they will be keeping a close eye on a few youngsters. In addition to seeing how the third base competition plays out, they have prospects like Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert, Christian Scott and Luisangel Acuña who will all be in the upper minors and perhaps pushing for big league debuts.

The Mets are, in many ways, in between this and that. Their modest offseason is a result of that uncertainty. They are still way over the competitive balance tax this year thanks to their previous aggression, but they have limited their future commitments. Per RosterResource, this year’s CBT number is $328MM but it will drop all the way to $171MM next year. That doesn’t include raises for arbitration-eligible players, and they should have plenty of holes to fill with all of these one-year deals expiring, but it highlights how different things could be next winter. As the Mets and their fans know, a lot can change in a year.

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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The Braves made a couple early-offseason strikes to bolster the pitching depth and install a former top prospect as their new left fielder. Their biggest move came right around the New Year with the acquisition and extension of a one-time ace whom they’re hoping will get back on track in 2024.

Major League Signings

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

Notable Losses

While the first few weeks of the offseason were generally fairly quiet around the league, the Braves struck early. They began their work before the offseason technically began. Within two weeks of being bounced in the NL Division Series, Atlanta kept one of their free agents off the market.

The Braves inked Pierce Johnson to a two-year, $14.25MM extension, keeping the deadline pickup in the high-leverage mix after a dominant second half. The bullpen investment continued in early November. Joe Jiménez inked a three-year, $26MM pact (on a rare Atlanta extension that didn’t include a team option at the end) days before he would’ve been able to explore the open market.

President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff didn’t stop there. They orchestrated the first offseason trade of significance with the White Sox, sending five players to Chicago for lefty reliever Aaron Bummer. It’s a bet on Bummer’s velocity and strong strikeout and ground-ball rates despite his 6.79 ERA from a season ago. Atlanta subtracted back-of-the-roster depth in parting with rotation candidates Michael Soroka and Jared Shuster and infielders Nicky Lopez and Braden Shewmake. No one from that group projected to play a significant role early in the 2024 season, making that an easier call for the front office.

With that level of early investment in the bullpen, it came as a surprise when the Braves dipped into free agency for yet another power arm who has spent the past couple seasons as a reliever. Reynaldo López inked a three-year, $30MM pact. That price point isn’t too surprising in itself, but the subsequent revelation that the Braves will allow him to compete for a rotation spot was unexpected. López struggled as a starting pitcher early in his career with the White Sox. He has been far better in relief over the last few seasons, yet it’s still fair to question whether he has the level of command necessary to be an effective starter.

López is battling the likes of AJ Smith-Shawver, Bryce Elder, Huascar Ynoa and top prospect Hurston Waldrep for the final spot in the starting five. That’s a high-octane collection of depth arms behind one of the sport’s strongest front fours. Spencer Strider and Max Fried are back in their customary top two rotation spots. The Braves exercised a $20MM option to keep Charlie Morton for his fourth season in Atlanta.

There was never a question they’d add one more established starter behind the Strider, Fried and Morton trio. The source of intrigue was which pitcher that would be. The Braves were tied to Georgia native Dylan Cease in trade rumors early in the winter but balked at the White Sox’s asking price. Ultimately, they turned to a pitcher few expected to be traded: Chris Sale.

Sale narrowly topped 100 innings over 20 starts for the Red Sox last season, his first time hitting the century mark since 2019. A pedestrian 4.30 ERA belied a much more impressive 29.4% strikeout rate and 13.2% swinging strike percentage. The stuff that had made Sale an ace earlier in his career seems mostly intact. Yet there’s risk in betting on a pitcher who turns 35 this month and has missed extended stretches over the past three seasons because of Tommy John surgery, a broken finger, a wrist fracture, and last year’s bout of shoulder inflammation.

Between that injury history and a hefty $27.5MM salary, it seemed unlikely the Red Sox would find a taker for Sale. Atlanta got around the latter concern by convincing Boston to eat $17MM. With another $10MM of the salary set to be deferred, Sale essentially cost the Braves nothing this year financially. Getting the Sox to pay down that large a portion of the salary required parting with one of Atlanta’s top young players.

While Vaughn Grissom has technically exhausted his prospect eligibility, he was essentially Atlanta’s best young position player who was not already a key piece of the major league roster. The 23-year-old has hit .287/.339/.407 in scattered big league looks over the last two seasons. He’s coming off a .330/.419/.501 showing in Triple-A. Grissom could be an average or better MLB second baseman as soon as this year. His path to playing time on the Truist Park infield has long been blocked, so it seemed the Braves would cash him in for rotation help at some point.

Atlanta doubled down on the dice roll on Sale by reworking his contract. They signed him to a restructured two-year, $38MM deal not long after the trade. That reduced the team’s luxury tax obligations in the short term and tacked on a club option for the 2026 season while guaranteeing the lanky southpaw a $22MM salary for ’25 — a year that had previously been covered by a team option.

That completed the big work on the pitching staff. As has been the case for a few offseasons, the Braves entered the winter with a mostly settled group of hitters. Eight members of last year’s primary lineup are back. The one unsettled position was left field. Atlanta declined a $9MM option on Eddie Rosario, leaving that as the sole lineup spot which they needed to address.

While the Braves loosely floated the possibility of moving Grissom to left field before his inclusion in the Sale trade, they took that off the table at the Winter Meetings. Atlanta leveraged financial space to take a change-of-scenery look at former top prospect Jarred Kelenic. The left-handed hitter was a disappointment in Seattle, where he hit .204/.283/.373 over parts of three seasons.

Kelenic is coming off a career-best offensive showing, as he turned in a decent .253/.327/.419 batting line over 416 plate appearances last year. It wasn’t an entirely positive season, though. He struck out at a borderline untenable 31.7% rate, continuing the issues making contact that have plagued him throughout his career. Kelenic also missed a couple months with a self-inflicted foot fracture sustained when he kicked a water cooler in frustration after a strikeout.

Controllable for five seasons and a year away from arbitration, Kelenic himself isn’t costing the Braves much for the upcoming campaign. They did take a good chunk of dead money off Seattle’s books. The Braves added $24.5MM in salary on Marco Gonzales and Evan White. The actual return — reliever Jackson Kowar, acquired weeks earlier from the Royals for injured starter Kyle Wright, and mid-level pitching prospect Cole Phillips — wasn’t exorbitant. Kelenic will get an opportunity to play every day in left field, which isn’t surprising considering the amount of salary and luxury tax fees they took on to get him.

The Kelenic trade kicked off a series of additions in which the Braves ate underwater contracts to acquire depth pieces of interest. They offloaded Gonzales to the Pirates for nothing more than $2.75MM in savings on his $12MM contract. White went to the Angels in a bizarre move that saw Atlanta take on the deals of infielder David Fletcher and catcher Max Stassi. The Braves added an extra $6MM to the books, ostensibly to add Fletcher in the glove-first utility role which Nicky Lopez had played down the stretch.

Atlanta ate all but the league minimum on Stassi and flipped him to the White Sox for nothing, while they ran Fletcher through outright waivers. The latter remains in the organization in a non-roster capacity and could still get to the majors this year, but the subsequent signing of Luis Guillorme to a $1.1MM free agent deal makes him a bit redundant. The Fletcher/White swap seemed unnecessary in the larger context of the offseason.

The Braves made one more trade of this ilk in mid-December. Atlanta absorbed $4MM on Matt Carpenter’s salary to bring in hard-throwing reliever Ray Kerr from the Padres. The Braves released Carpenter (he subsequently signed a big league deal to return to the Cardinals), but Kerr is an intriguing lefty bullpen arm who can still be optioned to the minors. That’s a plus for a team that has seven relievers — Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Jiménez, Johnson, Tyler Matzek, Bummer and Jackson Stephens — who cannot be sent down without clearing waivers. All but Stephens are locks to be in the MLB bullpen if healthy.

It’s debatable whether the series of maneuvers at the back of the roster improves the Braves enough that it was worthwhile. It at least highlights the kind of flexibility afforded the front office by constructing a team with such a strong core. The Braves made a couple other small-scale changes.

They dealt veteran middle reliever Nick Anderson to the Royals, acquired fifth outfielder J.P. Martínez from the Rangers, and took minimal fliers on injury rehabbers Penn Murfee and Ángel Perdomo as forward-looking bullpen moves. It amounts to a lot of tinkering in an offseason that’ll be defined by the Sale, Kelenic and (to lesser extents) López and Bummer acquisitions.

Most of last year’s star-studded group is back. The catching tandem of Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud remains in place. Ditto the starting infield of Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia and Austin Riley. Defending NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. dodged a scare with his right knee and should be in the Opening Day outfield beside Michael Harris II and Kelenic. Marcell Ozuna is under contract for one more season at designated hitter.

Maintaining perfect continuity is impossible for any team. The Braves parted with Rosario, Wright, Soroka, Grissom and a couple ancillary veteran contributors in the bullpen. Longtime third base coach Ron Washington was finally poached for another managerial opportunity after years of speculation. He’s now in charge of the Angels dugout.

Despite that handful of departures, the Braves again head into the season with one of the strongest teams in the majors. They’re still firmly in their championship window, though the more immediate concern will be snagging a seventh straight NL East title. Next offseason will bring more questions, particularly about the long-term state of the rotation with Fried trending towards free agency.

 

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks followed up their surprising pennant run with an active offseason. They’re still long shots to challenge the Dodgers in the NL West, but they go into 2024 with clear expectations of a second consecutive playoff berth.

Major League Signings

2024 spending: $35MM
Total spending: $136.5MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Diamondbacks came up a little short of the second championship in franchise history. After clinching the National League’s last playoff spot on the final weekend of the season, they knocked off the Brewers, Dodgers and Phillies en route to the Fall Classic. The Rangers put a stop to that run with a five-game triumph in the World Series, yet the Snakes went into the offseason seeking to build on that finish.

Arizona’s first order of business was to reward their longtime manager. Within the first few days of the offseason, the Snakes signed Torey Lovullo to an extension running through 2026. Now the third-longest tenured manager in the NL, Lovullo seemed as if he might be on the hot seat as recently as 2022. The front office stuck by him through three straight losing seasons in 2020-22 and was rewarded for that patience last year.

Once Lovullo’s contract was settled, GM Mike Hazen and his staff set about strengthening the roster. It wasn’t lost on the front office that their regular season performance — which is likely a better predictor of the future than their small-sample postseason run — was merely fine. Arizona went 84-78 and was outscored by 15 runs. They had clear areas to address in the middle of the rotation and at third base. The impending free agency of left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was another question.

Third base was the first domino to fall. While they were linked to free agents Jeimer Candelario and Justin Turner within the offseason’s first couple weeks, they turned to the trade market. Arizona dealt hard-throwing reliever Carlos Vargas and third catcher Seby Zavala to the Mariners for Eugenio Suárez. While Vargas is an interesting developmental flier, the biggest appeal for Seattle was offloading the $13MM which Suárez is owed this year — taking the form of an $11MM salary and a $2MM buyout on a $15MM club option for 2025.

Arizona bought a declining asset to some extent. After topping 30 homers in both 2021 and ’22, Suárez hit 22 longballs a season ago. He led the American League in strikeouts for a second consecutive year, punching out 214 times. His .232/.323/.391 batting line was almost exactly league average after accounting for the extreme pitcher-friendly nature of Seattle’s T-Mobile Park. It was his third average or worse offensive showing in the past four years.

Even if Suárez is trending downward as he nears his 33rd birthday, he’s an upgrade over utility types like Emmanuel Rivera and Jace Peterson. Moving to Chase Field should offer a boost to his power production. He draws plenty of walks and is a capable defensive infielder. There’ll be plenty of strikeouts, but that’s a trade-off Arizona was willing to accept to add a righty power bat to a lineup that has been built largely around athletic contact hitters.

They followed up with their big strike for rotation help at the Winter Meetings. The D-Backs landed Eduardo Rodríguez on a four-year, $80MM pact. It’s the franchise’s biggest free agent investment since the ill-fated Madison Bumgarner deal from 2019. Rodríguez’s contract generally aligned with expectations and adds a needed mid-rotation arm.

The southpaw turned in a career-low 3.30 ERA with solid strikeout and walk marks in 26 starts for the Tigers last year. He’s familiar with Hazen and Lovullo from their time with the Red Sox, addressing any concerns they might have had after Rodríguez missed a chunk of 2022 attending to a personal matter and vetoed a deadline deal to the Dodgers last summer. He pairs with Merrill Kelly as mid-rotation arms behind ace Zac Gallen. That knocks Brandon Pfaadt into the fourth starter role that had been so problematic last year, both in the regular season and into October.

One can still quibble with the starting pitching depth, but the front office felt the bigger priority after landing Rodríguez was building out the lineup. They stuck with Gurriel in left field, bringing him back on a three-year, $42MM guarantee that allows him to opt out after the second season. Retaining Gurriel and adding Suárez addressed their desire for right-handed bats but still hadn’t satisfied the goal of bringing in a full-time designated hitter.

For that, they turned to lefty-swinging Joc Pederson. The D-Backs brought in Pederson on a one-year, $12.5MM deal. He’s coming off an unspectacular .235/.348/.416 showing for the Giants. Arizona is betting on Pederson to recapture something closer to his excellent 2022 form. He raked at a .274/.353/.521 clip with San Francisco two seasons ago.

Pederson’s hard contact rate remains elite and he posted better strikeout and walk numbers last year than he had in ’22. He’s a limited player — he should be shielded from lefty pitching and is best served as a DH only — but he should hit in the middle third of the lineup when opponents start a right-hander.

Suárez, Rodríguez, Gurriel and Pederson are the four big acquisitions (or retentions, in Gurriel’s case) of the offseason. The Snakes brought in a couple veterans to deepen the bench. They guaranteed Randal Grichuk $2MM, indicating he’ll serve as a right-handed hitting depth outfielder and perhaps a complement to Pederson in the DH slot. Grichuk clobbered lefties in 2023 and has a strong track record against them, making him a sensible fit in that role. Two-time Gold Glove winner Tucker Barnhart inked a minor league pact. He has a good chance to surpass José Herrera as the backup to franchise catcher Gabriel Moreno.

The only other notable transaction was a swap of young players with the White Sox. Arizona dealt lefty-hitting outfielder Dominic Fletcher to Chicago for pitching prospect Cristian Mena. The D-backs have subtracted a couple fringe outfielders via trade — they included Dominic Canzone as part of the Paul Sewald return last summer — reflecting the depth they have on the grass.

Gurriel is locked into left field. Defending Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll will handle the other corner. Defensive stalwart Alek Thomas will man center field. Jake McCarthy is still on hand as a depth option who can play all three outfield spots. Grichuk can play some center field as well, although Arizona’s collection of talented young defenders means he’s likely to spend the majority of his time in a corner or at DH.

Fletcher still has two options remaining, so the Snakes could have kept him in Triple-A Reno. He’s already 26 and wasn’t going to have a clear path to everyday playing time at Chase Field, however. It made more sense to flip to the White Sox, where he entered camp with the leg up on the starting right field job. That allowed the D-backs to bolster their rotation depth, a comparative weak point for Arizona.

Mena, 21, has yet to make his MLB debut. He’s on the 40-man roster and briefly reached Triple-A last season. The 6’2″ righty spent the bulk of the year in Double-A, where he turned in a 4.66 ERA with an impressive 27.9% strikeout rate but an 11.3% walk percentage. He’s still developing as a strike-thrower, but scouting reports praise his curveball and potential for command improvement. Mena could reach the majors at some point this year.

That’s unlikely to be on Opening Day. He’ll likely slot behind Ryne Nelson, Slade Cecconi and Tommy Henry in the battle for the fifth rotation spot. It’s not a great group and an injury to any of the top four starters could stress the pitching staff. If the Diamondbacks are in contention at the deadline, acquiring rotation depth could again be a summer goal.

Lovullo could lean heavily on the bullpen to help cover for some of the unproven arms at the back of the starting staff. Arizona enters 2024 with the strongest on-paper relief group they’ve had in years. The Sewald trade is a big part of that, although they’ve also been aided by the unheralded Ryan Thompson pickup and steps forward from Kevin Ginkel and Andrew Saalfrank.

The D-backs didn’t make a single major league acquisition to the relief group. Hazen suggested early in Spring Training they could still look for depth additions given the volatility of relief pitching (link via Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports). Still, it was far less of a priority than it had been in the last few offseasons. Non-roster lefties Brandon Hughes and José Castillo are the most significant pickups thus far.

Arizona also inked a couple minor league contracts to bolster the infield depth. Kevin Newman and Elvis Andrus are in camp as non-roster shortstops. Lovullo has already declared Geraldo Perdomo his starter at the position. One of Andrus or Newman should make the team as a backup.

Aside from Perdomo, prospects Jordan Lawlar and Blaze Alexander are the only other shortstops on the 40-man roster. It’s better to get Lawlar everyday playing time in the upper minors than to use him sparingly off the major league bench. Alexander has yet to make his MLB debut and struck out at an elevated 27.2% clip in Triple-A. Lawlar might be the first option up if any of the starting infielders suffer an injury. At full health, the D-backs will run a primary group of Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Perdomo and Suárez around the dirt.

Walker, one of the sport’s more quietly productive first basemen, is now a year away from free agency. He and Sewald are the team’s top rentals. Both players are approaching their mid-30s, so the front office might not have much urgency to keep either off the open market. Walker told the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro last month that there hadn’t been much talk about an extension, although he indicated he was open to that conversation.

If the front office were to consider extension targets, they might prefer to secure a younger member of the core. They successfully inked Carroll to a $111MM deal last spring, cementing the star outfielder as the face of the franchise. Moreno, who hit .284/.339/.408 in his first full big league campaign, would be the most obvious target for similar overtures this spring. Arizona would presumably love to keep Gallen around for the long haul, but that’s a much taller task. The Cy Young finalist is two years from free agency and trending towards a massive contract.

Whether or not the Diamondbacks can work out long-term deals with anyone this spring, they’ll go into the season with more optimism than they’ve had in years. Their active offseason has pushed their player payroll around $144MM, as calculated by RosterResource. While middle-of-the-pack by league standards, that’s the highest mark in franchise history.

Few people will predict Arizona to close what was a 16-game gap with Los Angeles even before the Dodgers’ offseason spending spree. Anything short of another Wild Card berth would count as a disappointment, though. The Diamondbacks raised expectations in October. Adding Rodríguez, Suárez and Pederson only bolsters that.

Will The Giants Trade J.D. Davis?

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Trade rumors regarding J.D. Davis have been prevalent throughout the offseason. The Giants were linked to Matt Chapman for nearly four months before getting a deal done last week. Now that Chapman has displaced Davis from the starting lineup, there’s again speculation about a subsequent trade.

The Giants signing Chapman doesn’t seem to have been conditional on a Davis trade, as the latter remains on the San Francisco roster five days later. Davis is probably overqualified for a bench role. He has played fairly regularly over the past five seasons between the Mets and Giants. Davis has turned in above-average offensive numbers in each of those seasons, although last year’s .248/.325/.413 slash line was his weakest since he established himself as a regular.

Davis has received some criticism for his glove. Public metrics had almost unanimously graded him as a below-average defender until last season. There was a split in his defensive grades in 2023. Defensive Runs Saved still considered him among the worst third basemen in the league, grading him 11 runs below average. Statcast, by contrast, viewed his work as four runs better than par. No one would consider Davis comparable to Chapman with the glove, but pairing average or better defense with his power potential would make him a good everyday player.

That alone doesn’t mean the Giants need to trade him. San Francisco could keep him on hand as a quality depth option for this season. It’s not an ideal roster fit. Beyond Chapman, the Giants have Wilmer Flores as a righty-hitting corner infielder and will use Jorge Soler at designated hitter.

While Davis would have the ability to pursue an everyday third base job in free agency next winter, he doesn’t have much recourse right now. He said over the weekend that he’s willing to do “whatever the team needs,” even as he called the signing “definitely surprising” and stated he was unaware the team was adding Chapman before it was reported publicly (comments relayed by John Shea and Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle).

Carrying Davis in a limited role is a suboptimal outcome for the Giants. He’s making $6.9MM after winning an arbitration hearing. That’s a lot to commit for a player used sparsely off the bench. Yet even if the Giants decide they’d prefer to offload Davis’ salary, Chapman’s late signing date could complicate those efforts.

A number of teams have publicly declared they’re near or at the level at which they’re willing to spend. Some clubs might view Davis as a slight upgrade over their in-house third basemen but not want to add a near-$7MM salary less than three weeks before Opening Day. Free agent spending on infielders was down all offseason and has gone particularly cold in recent weeks. Players like Tim Anderson ($5MM), Amed Rosario ($1.5MM) and Gio Urshela ($1.5MM) inked one-year pacts for salaries below what Davis will command. The Urshela contract, in particular, doesn’t point to a robust demand for third basemen.

Where will that leave the Giants? Will whatever trade interest they receive in Davis over the next few weeks be strong enough that they deem it preferable to keeping him?

 

Out Of Options 2024

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Every spring at MLBTR, we publish a list of players who are out of minor league options and cannot be sent to the minor leagues without first clearing outright waivers. Option status is particularly relevant as teams set their rosters prior to Opening Day. A lack of minor league options is often a key reason a certain player will make the roster over another who had a superior spring performance, and it’s a frequent factor in March trades.

The following is a list of all 40-man players throughout the league with fewer than five years of service time — players with more than five years of service can refuse an optional assignment — and no minor league options remaining. We’ve included players who have signed extensions or multi-year deals, even though they’re often less likely to be optioned.

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

Which Is The Best Team In The AL East?

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Just over a week ago, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald discussed the National League Central, which is arguably MLB’s most tightly-contested division. While no other division compares to that projected dogfight, the American League East provides the Central with a worthy rival in that regard as the only other division that Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projects to not include a 90-loss team. Indeed, there’s an argument to be made that the battle for the AL East this year figures to be even more hotly contested. After all, PECOTA projects both the Pirates and Reds to finish with a lower win total than any of the teams in the AL East, while Fangraphs projects the East as the only division in the majors without a sub-.500 club.

That projection systems see the AL East as a division with five potential contenders is supported by last year’s results. The Orioles led the pack last season with a 101-win record, capturing the division title despite a strong showing from the Rays, who finished two games behind Baltimore. Both Tampa and Toronto also managed to make the postseason last year, while New York and Boston both remained on the periphery of the playoff picture into September despite ultimately coming up short. Since then, each club has seen significant changes, and with the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still on the market, it’s easy to imagine one or more of these club’s further improving their stock prior to Opening Day. In the meantime, let’s take a look at where things stand in the American League’s most competitive division:

Orioles: 101-61 in 2023, FG projects 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.2

The Orioles were perhaps the most surprising team in baseball last year, surging to the club’s first AL East title since the 2014 season thanks to contributions from youngsters like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez. Those same young players will be back this season and figure to be joined by consensus #1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday at some point this season, perhaps as soon as Opening Day. The club’s exciting young core figures to once again be complemented by solid veterans such as Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander as well, giving them a strong offensive nucleus with which to attempt to continue their reign atop the East.

With that being said, the club has seen some turnover this winter. Veteran starter Kyle Gibson departed the rotation via free agency this winter, and while the club swung a deal earlier this offseason to acquire former Brewers ace Corbin Burnes to front their rotation, dealing away promising southpaw DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz could be something of a blow to the club’s depth headed into the season. More noticeably, two key pitchers from the 2023 season are entering the season with significant injuries: closer Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery late last year and figures to miss all of the 2024 campaign, while right-hander Kyle Bradish faces a lengthy absence of his own due to a UCL issue after leading the Baltimore rotation last season with a sterling 2.83 ERA across 30 starts.

While the injuries faced by Bradish and Bautista leave the Orioles without two of their top pitchers to open the season, the additions of Burnes and veteran closer Craig Kimbrel should help to soften those blows, and with youngsters such as Holliday, Cade Povich, and Coby Mayo all on the verge of contributing at the big league level, there’s plenty of reason to believe Baltimore can remain in the upper echelon of the league headed into 2024 as long as the club’s young stars can avoid taking a step back this season.

Rays: 99-63 in 2023, FG projects 86 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.9

The Rays started the 2023 campaign on an incredible hot streak, winning a record-breaking 13 consecutive games to open the season last year thanks to strong pitching performances from the likes of Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan. Unfortunately, each of those aforementioned arms underwent season-ending surgery last year and are expected to miss at least the first half of the 2024 campaign, if not longer. Tampa’s rotation mix was further weakened by the club dealing right-hander Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers back in December, leaving the club with little certainty in the starting mix outside of Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale. Another major loss from a production standpoint is shortstop Wander Franco, who posted 4.6 fWAR in 112 games last year but is facing sexual abuse charges in his native Dominican Republic that put his future in the majors in doubt.

Even with that hefty number of losses, however, the Rays still figure to be a force to be reckoned with headed into 2024. After all, the club sports one of the deepest lineups in the game, led by the likes of Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena. In addition to that group, the club sports plenty of young talent with the likes of Junior Caminero, Josh Lowe, and Curtis Mead all expected to contribute at the big league level at some point this season on the positional side. Meanwhile, the pitching staff boasts intriguing youngsters like Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and offseason acquisition Ryan Pepiot, each of whom are likely to join Civale and Eflin as rotation pieces this season. The club’s perennially excellent bullpen continues to look strong as well, with a back-end trio of Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and Colin Poche bolstered by offseason additions such as Phil Maton.

Given the number of significant absences the Rays are facing entering the season, it’s not necessarily surprising that projections systems expect the club to take a major step back in 2024. The club figures to rely on the likes of Jose Caballero and Taylor Walls in place of Franco at short and young, unproven arms like Bradley and Pepiot in place of established power arms like McClanahan and Rasmussen. Even so, the club’s deep lineup and strong bullpen figure to keep the club in contention for the AL East crown this season, particularly if the youngsters in the rotation find success in the big leagues.

Blue Jays: 89-73 in 2023, FG projects 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 88.6

The 2023 season was a strange one in Toronto, as key stars such as Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. took steps back at the plate to leave the club with a surprisingly tepid offense. That didn’t stop the Jays from contending last year, however, as the club managed to sneak into the final AL Wild Card spot with an 89-win campaign thanks to a strong performance from the club’s starting rotation. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, and Chris Bassitt each combined to give the club above-average production while making more than 30 starts a piece, and veteran southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu managed to step into the rotation and provide solid back-end production when youngster Alek Manoah struggled badly throughout the season.

Entering the offseason, the club seemed poised to make big changes as they were connected to the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, though they ultimately ended up having a much quieter offseason. After watching the likes of Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt depart in free agency, the club brought in the likes of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner to fill the void at third base and DH while adding to their pitching depth with the addition of Yariel Rodriguez. Those minor moves leave the club likely to look for internal improvements as they hope to return to the postseason in 2024. Some of that improvement could come from the club’s young talent, with top pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann likely to debut sometime this year while the likes of Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement figure to attempt to establish themselves in larger roles.

While the club’s lineup took a bit of a hit this winter after a disappointing 2023 campaign, a robust pitching staff figures to keep the Blue Jays afloat this season even if the offense fails to take a step forward. It’s easy to imagine the club returning to the postseason in 2024 if stars like Bo Bichette, Guerrero, and Springer can deliver impactful performances, especially if the club gets strong production from its supporting cast of hitters like Turner, Schneider, and Daulton Varsho.

Yankees: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 89 wins in 2024, PECOTA 94.7

After missing the postseason for the first time since 2017 and barely escaping the 2023 season with a winning record, the Yankees wasted no time this winter in looking to improve the club’s postseason chances for year two of Aaron Judge’s nine-year megadeal with the club. That included a complete retool of the club’s outfield mix as the club acquired Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, and Alex Verdugo to complement Judge on the outfield grass while balancing a lineup that leaned too right-handed in 2023. The blockbuster deal for Soto and Grisham cost the club plenty of big league pitching talent, including the likes of Michael King and Randy Vasquez, though New York went on to patch up the club’s starting rotation by landing veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman in free agency.

That lengthy offseason shopping list seems likely to leave them in strong position to contend this season even as they lost the likes of Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, and King from last year’s club. Even as the club added a quality mid-rotation arm, solid outfield regulars, and a superstar bat to its mix, however, it’s possible the club’s most impactful improvements could come internally after the club dealt with a hefty number of injuries last year. Judge followed up his 2022 AL MVP-winning performance with another season that saw him post an OPS north of 1.000 in 2023, though he was limited to just 106 games by a toe injury. Meanwhile, southpaws Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon both struggled badly with injuries and ineffectiveness last year but still carry front-of-the-rotation upside when healthy, while veteran hitters like Stanton and Anthony Rizzo could also benefit from improved health this season and rebound from difficult 2023 campaigns.

Of all the clubs in the AL East, it’s easy to make the argument that the Yankees did the most to improve this winter. While even those additions may not be enough to catch up to the club’s divisional rivals on their own after an 82-win campaign, improved health from the club’s key regulars both on the mound and in the lineup could certainly help the club avoid missing the postseason in back-to-back campaigns for the first time since the 2013 and ’14 seasons.

Red Sox: 78-84 in 2023, FG projects 81 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79.2

It’s been a strange offseason in Boston, as the club began the winter with promises of a “full throttle” approach to the 2024 season and a goal of improving the club’s rotation. Despite those major plans, the club has generally opted for smaller moves throughout the winter. Perhaps the club’s most notable move was parting ways with longtime ace Chris Sale in a trade that netted the club young infielder Vaughn Grissom, while Sale’s spot atop the club’s rotation appears poised to go to right-hander Lucas Giolito.

The club also added outfielder Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals while signing veteran closer Liam Hendriks to a two-year deal, though the righty won’t impact the team until the second half at the earliest as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Those moves more or less leave the club in a similar position as they were last season, with Giolito replacing Sale while O’Neill and Grissom figure to replace Adam Duvall and Turner in the club’s lineup. While the club’s most significant offseason losses have been replaced in one form or another, other departures such as those of James Paxton, Alex Verdugo, and John Schreiber have all gone unanswered to this point in the winter.

Despite the club’s many question marks, there’s some reason for optimism in Boston, thanks to the young talent that could impact the club this year. In addition to Grissom serving as a potential solution at second base, Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, and Brayan Bello took significant steps forward last year and could prove to be core pieces for the club, while youngsters like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela could also impact the club this season after making brief cameos in the majors last year. It’s certainly possible to imagine Trevor Story returning to the form that once made him a star with the Rockies now that he’s further removed from the elbow troubles that cost him much of last season, and Masataka Yoshida could be an impactful bat if he can recreate his performance from the first half of 2023 over the full season this year. Meanwhile, the rotation features a handful of interesting youngsters such as Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Kutter Crawford, any of whom could prove to be an impactful arm if they manage to take a step forward this year.

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On the heels of a 2023 season that saw three of the division’s five teams make the postseason and its fifth-place finisher end the season with a better record than the fourth place finishers of four other divisions, it’s perhaps not a surprise that the AL East figures to once again be among the most competitive divisions in baseball this year. After a busy offseason in the division, which team do you think will come out on top? Was the Yankees’ splashy offseason to put them back in the driver’s seat? Will another year of development for the young players in Baltimore allow them to repeat their dominant 2023 campaign? Will the deep rosters of the Rays or Blue Jays manage to outlast the competition? Or could the Red Sox outperform the projections and take the division on the back of their young players and rebound candidates?

Which team in the AL East is best? Have your say in the poll below!

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