Dodgers & Deferrals: A Misguided Focus
Zack Scott, former Mets Acting GM and four-time champion with the Red Sox, empowers sports operations and individuals to win through Four Rings Sports Solutions. He specializes in data-driven strategies and leadership development. His Sports Ops Launchpad helps aspiring sports ops pros break into the industry. Connect with him on LinkedIn here. Zack will be contributing periodically to MLB Trade Rumors.
The Dodgers aren’t ruining baseball with massive salary deferrals. They may be causing a perception issue for MLB, but focusing on deferrals for the next Collective Bargaining Agreement would be a misguided effort—a political gesture that won’t address the core competitive balance issues.
Deferrals serve two primary purposes: helping teams close deals and giving players a big headline to validate their market value and boost their status. They’re not a circumvention tool around the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) rules. Spending power, not contract structure, drives baseball’s economic landscape. Teams with greater resources have always been able to outspend smaller-market teams. This dynamic is inherent in leagues without hard salary caps.
Over the past five years, the Dodgers have become a lightning rod for fan discontent by deferring over $1B to acquire many star players. Shohei Ohtani’s $680MM deferred salary is an extreme example, but their long-term contracts consistently feature deferrals.
Let’s consider a hypothetical scenario: What if deferrals were prohibited? Would the Dodgers still have offered Ohtani a $700MM contract? It’s highly unlikely. A league where deferrals are banned wouldn’t change the Dodgers’ desire to acquire Ohtani, but it would necessitate a different contract structure. Guaranteed dollar amounts would likely align more with the present value calculations we observe in current MLB contracts.
Ohtani’s contract (97% deferred) calculates to a $460MM present value using MLB’s 4.43% discount rate. This figure makes sense in historical context, as it surpassed Trout’s $426.5MM (no deferrals), which stood as the highest for nearly five years. However, it’s crucial to understand the discount rate’s role in these calculations. MLB uses a conservative rate, which limits the CBT benefits for teams.
This standardized rate doesn’t reflect team owners’ financial realities. Many owners, especially those directly connected to global investment firms, achieve significantly higher returns. Consider Guggenheim’s Mark Walter, the Dodgers’ owner, whose firm has generated approximately 10% average annual returns, or Point72’s Steve Cohen, the Mets’ owner, with around 14% average annual returns. The present value drops significantly if we apply these more realistic discount rates to Ohtani’s deferred contract.
Using Walter’s rate, the present value would be approximately $282MM. Using Cohen’s rate, it would be even lower, around $203MM. This substantial difference reveals that the perceived CBT advantages from deferrals are less significant than they initially seem. Although deferrals offer teams greater financial flexibility in managing cash flow, their present value is inflated by the conservative discount rate used for CBT calculations.
While the CBT benefits from deferrals may be overstated, they carry inherent long-term risks. Revenue declines or ownership changes could jeopardize those large future payments. However, the Dodgers’ deep pockets mitigate these risks. Guggenheim’s returns suggest they’re well-positioned to meet these obligations. Commissioner Manfred cited the early 2000s Diamondbacks as a cautionary tale. Still, Arizona’s spending outpaced revenue, and their ownership was less diversified than the current Dodgers group, making a similar outcome unlikely. LA’s bet on continued financial success is reasonable.
My experience negotiating MLB contracts in large markets has shown that various contract structures can be critical to reaching agreements. We used salary escalators, signing bonuses, player opt-outs, and, yes, those evil deferrals. When I was with the Mets, we signed Francisco Lindor to a $341MM contract, including $50MM in deferrals and a $21MM signing bonus. While the deferrals didn’t drastically alter our CBT payroll, they were instrumental in reaching a “magic number” for Lindor, pushing him $1MM over Fernando Tatis Jr. to secure the headline highest-paid shortstop.
The “magic number” concept is crucial in player negotiations. It represents the minimum financial threshold a player is willing to accept to validate their market value and status. These numbers are rarely explicitly stated, as agents are more likely to present significantly higher buy-it-now prices and counteroffers. Effective negotiation requires understanding the underlying motivations behind this elusive target. Athletes at this level are incredibly competitive, so their reasons for setting their sights on a particular “magic number” differ from the typical fan.
Perhaps they’re motivated to be the highest paid at their position, to push the market forward to benefit the union, or maybe it’s a number that just feels better (e.g., $2MM vs. $1.95MM). Sometimes, the gap between the player’s “magic number” and the team’s offer is too wide to bridge. However, in other cases, creative contract structures, including deferrals, can be the key to finding common ground. If this flexibility didn’t exist, reaching those critical “magic numbers” would become significantly more challenging. This could lead to longer, more drawn-out negotiations—a scenario that already frustrates many baseball fans.
Mookie Betts’ contract with the Dodgers offers another compelling example. He signed a $365MM deal with $115MM deferred. While the headline figure was impressive (second largest contract behind Trout!), the present value was $307MM, placing it below a few additional contracts (Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gerrit Cole). This structure allowed the Dodgers to acquire a star player while satisfying Mookie and his agent’s desire to be seen as a top-two player. In Boston, we had tried to re-sign Betts, but our self-imposed $300MM limit wasn’t enough to meet this desire. A similar deferral structure to the Dodgers’ deal might have changed the outcome.
The Dodgers and other marquee franchises play an essential role in baseball. People are fascinated by greatness and love to root for or against the best, whether it’s Mahomes’ Chiefs, Jordan’s Bulls, Jeter’s Yankees, or Ken Jennings’ Jeopardy. Baseball’s “Goliaths,” as Scott Boras calls them, drive higher interest and TV ratings, ultimately benefiting all MLB teams. While fans of smaller-market teams may express frustration over the financial disparities, eliminating deferrals won’t solve their economic concerns.
The Dodgers are drawing all the attention because they added so many big names over the last five years. This is due to several factors: their superior financial resources, their ability to optimize player performance, their winning culture, and their West Coast location, which is a significant draw for Japanese players. These factors have raised their villain status, and that’s good for baseball. But along with that comes more noise, including misplaced outcries about deferrals.
Poll: Will The Cardinals Be Able To Trade Nolan Arenado?
One of the biggest storylines of the offseason has been the Cardinals’ to this point unsuccessful attempts at moving veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado. As the club scales back its payroll and focuses on youth, both the Cardinals and Arenado himself have expressed a desire to move on this winter. In theory, moving an eight-time All-Star who’s just two seasons removed from being an MVP finalist should not be an especially difficult task, but a confluence of factors has made things very complicated for St. Louis’s front office.
The most obvious limiting factor at play is Arenado’s hefty contract. The infielder is due $74MM over the next three seasons, and even with the Rockies poised to pitch in $10MM as a condition of the trade that sent him to St. Louis in the first place, it’s hard to imagine a number of smaller or even mid-market clubs being able to stomach the majority of that salary. Even for clubs who can afford to pay Arenado, it would be understandable if there was some level of pause about committing that much money to a hitter coming off a .272/.325/.394 slash line that was essentially league average (102 wRC+). Arenado’s glove is still enough to make him a roughly three-win player even with his diminished offensive numbers but the division rival Cubs’ difficulties in finding a trade partner when looking to move Cody Bellinger this winter show how depressed the market can become for a three-win player who’s making more than they would fetch on the open market.
Things are further complicated by Arenado’s no-trade clause, which he’s appeared to be very comfortable wielding in order to direct the Cardinals’ negotiation efforts towards clubs he wants to join. Arenado blocked a trade to the Astros in mid-December despite previous belief that he would approve a trade to Houston, in large part because he wanted to see how the club would fortify the roster after trading away Kyle Tucker. That decision to wait and see what was next for Houston backfired, as they pivoted towards signing Christian Walker in a move that likely closed the door on Arenado joining the Astros.
Since the deal with the Astros fell through, the market for Arenado’s services has been exceptionally quiet, with the Cardinals beginning to entertain the possibility that Arenado might be in camp for the start of Spring Training or even still be in the club’s starting lineup on Opening Day. The Yankees reportedly tried to convince the Cardinals to do a swap that would’ve sent Arenado to the Bronx and right-hander Marcus Stroman to the St. Louis, but the Cardinals dismissed that offer without even presenting it to Arenado due to a lack of interest in adding Stroman to the fold. It’s hardly a surprise that they wouldn’t want to take on Stroman and is $18.5MM salary for 2025, but that decision only serves to highlight the financial difficulties the Cardinals face in attempting to move their third baseman.
Even as a trade of Arenado has become less likely as the calendar has flipped to 2025, there are at least some reasons for optimism. Arenado has reportedly become more open-minded about what clubs he would approve a trade to in recent weeks, which could theoretically inspire renewed efforts from clubs like the Mariners, Royals, and Tigers who have some level of interest in him but initially believed that Arenado would block any trade they worked out with the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have indicated that they wouldn’t necessarily need to cut payroll elsewhere if Arenado remains with the club in 2025. It’s at least theoretically possible that’s simply a negotiation tactic, but if the Cardinals are truly not operating under a mandate to cut payroll to a specific level, then perhaps they’ll be more willing to chip in cash to help pay down Arenado’s salary or accept another underwater contract as part of the return.
One obvious catalyst that could spur Arenado talks back to the forefront of the hot stove would be Alex Bregman finding a new home in free agency. Bregman entered the winter ranked as the #3 free agent overall and the top available infielder according to MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, but he’s found a relatively quiet market to his point in the winter. The Red Sox, Tigers, Astros, Blue Jays, and Cubs are all known to be involved in Bregman’s market to this point on at least some level. While trading Arenado to a division rival like the Cubs is nearly impossible to imagine, the Astros have already moved on, and Toronto may not be competitive enough to satisfy the veteran. The interest is mutual in at least the case of the Red Sox, who currently figure to start Arenado’s longtime Rockies teammate Trevor Story at shortstop on a regular basis this year. If Bregman were to come to a decision, and especially one that saw him end up in Houston, Chicago, or Toronto, it’s easy to imagine Arenado’s market picking up more significantly.
How do MLBTR readers think things will play out? Will Arenado be in another uniform before Opening Day? And if so, will a deal get done before he’s scheduled to report to the Cardinals for Spring Training on February 17? Have your say in the poll below:
Will The Cardinals Trade Arenado This Offseason?
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No, he'll be a Cardinal on Opening Day 2025. 64% (5,836)
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Yes, but he'll be traded after camp begins on February 17. 18% (1,642)
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Yes, and he'll be traded before Spring Training. 18% (1,610)
Total votes: 9,088
Poll: The Mariners’ Dilemma In Dealing From The Rotation
If there’s one standout trait about the Mariners headed in 2025, it’s their elite rotation; Seattle has the most impressive collection of young, cost-controlled starting pitching talent in the majors right now. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo combined for more than 700 innings of 3.18 ERA baseball in 2024. Gilbert, who turns 28 in May, is the oldest of the group and the quartet has a combined 17 seasons of team control remaining.
That crop of talented young starters is the envy of the rest of the league, but if there’s a second standout trait about the 2025 Mariners it’s their questionable offense. Cal Raleigh is among the best offensive catchers in the game, but the lineup offers little certainty outside of him. Julio Rodriguez has superstar upside but didn’t show it for much of last year as he entered July hitting just .247/.297/.327. Randy Arozarena managed an excellent 11.7% walk rate down the stretch after being traded to the Mariners midseason, but hit just five home runs in 54 games and was worth just 1.9 fWAR overall last year between his time in Seattle and Tampa.
The trio of Raleigh, Rodriguez, and Arozarena all project to be above average hitters in 2025, but the rest of the lineup is well below average. Victor Robles enjoyed a career year after joining the Mariners midseason last year, but his elite performance in Seattle was carried by a .388 BABIP. Between that extreme good fortune with batted ball luck and his career .236/.311/.356 (81 wRC+) slash line prior to joining the Mariners, it’s hard to expect more than league average production from Robles in 2025. Dylan Moore and Luke Raley both posted solid numbers in 2025 but are platoon players who can’t be relied on in everyday roles, while J.P. Crawford, Mitch Haniger, and Mitch Garver were all well below average hitters in 2024.
The club’s only addition to the offense to this point has been Donovan Solano, who posted solid numbers in 2024 but figures to join Moore and Raley as another part-time player. A combination of Moore, Raley, and Solano seem likely to be capable of handling first and second base, but the club’s lineup still has a gaping hole at the hot corner after non-tendering Josh Rojas and declining Jorge Polanco‘s club option. MLBTR explored the third base market as it pertains to the Mariners earlier this month, but none of the free agent options that fit their budget and lower-level trade candidates available are particularly inspiring.
The Mariners have been hesitant to trade from their excellent rotation, only reluctantly listening to offers on pricey veteran Luis Castillo and seemingly shutting down discussions regarding their young core of arms entirely. But shopping a cost-controlled, elite starting pitcher could open up new possibilities for the club to add impact talent that wouldn’t have been available otherwise. The Red Sox reportedly dangled an impact youngster in first baseman Triston Casas in exchange for either Miller or Woo earlier this winter, and it’s easy to imagine rotation-needy clubs offering similarly impactful talent in exchange for a young arm of that caliber.
Dangling Gilbert or Kirby would surely land the Mariners an even more enticing package in exchange given their solid track records of front-of-the-rotation work in the majors to this point. The Orioles, for example, have a deep group of positional talent but are in need of an impact starter. It’s not impossible to imagine Baltimore being willing to part with an established young talent like Jordan Westburg as the headliner in a package for someone like Gilbert, perhaps packaged with a less impactful cost-controlled arm like Dean Kremer to ease the blow to Seattle’s rotation.
Turning away from the Orioles, Mark Vientos of the Mets and Matt McLain of the Reds are among the other high-end, cost-controlled third basemen who the Mariners could theoretically seek as a headliner in a package for one of their top starters, though neither is quite as valuable as Westburg. Of course, such deals are easier to propose than actually execute. While a team like Cincinnati packaging McLain with one of their own rotation arms like Nick Lodolo in order to land an elite talent like Gilbert could make sense on paper, the injury history of both players could give the Mariners plenty of pause about giving up one of their most valuable assets for little in the way of certainty and the Reds may be equally hesitant to offer up two established players with All-Star upside in exchange for one.
That’s just one example, of course, but it’s equally difficult to imagine the Mariners lining up on the right trade package for a player as valuable as Gilbert or Kirby with the vast majority of rival clubs. High-end, cost-controlled starting pitching is the single most desirable asset in the sport, and while fans of rival teams have long dreamed of their GM working out a trade with Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to bring one of the Mariners’ young aces to town they’d surely start feeling queasy about the possibility upon seeing just how much their team would need to part with in order to land such a coveted talent.
If you were in the Mariners’ shoes, how would you approach the situation? Would you take the same course Dipoto has and simply refuse to seriously entertain offers for your elite group of young pitchers, looking to upgrade the team in other ways like by dealing Castillo? Would you listen to offers while holding firm on a high asking price? Or would you compromise on the value of one of your top assets in order to help bolster an offense in desperate need of impact? Have your say in the poll below:
How Should Seattle Handle Its Young Starting Pitching?
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Listen to offers, but only trade one if another team makes a huge offer. 60% (3,160)
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Hold onto the whole group and build around them. 25% (1,319)
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Shop them aggressively and work out a deal that improves the lineup no matter the cost. 15% (809)
Total votes: 5,288
Looking For A Match In A Spencer Torkelson Trade
The Tigers rearranged their infield when they signed Gleyber Torres last month. He’ll play second base, a move that pushes Colt Keith to first base. The trickle-down effect is to block the clearest path to at-bats for 2020 first overall pick Spencer Torkelson.
As one would expect, Detroit’s baseball operations president Scott Harris pushed back against the idea that adding Torres squeezed Torkelson out of the picture. “My message to Tork was: ’if you have a big offseason and a big Spring Training, there’s a role for you on this team.’ This team needs more right-handed power and we’ve seen Tork do that in the past,” Harris said last month.
That may be true, but it’s also not difficult to imagine a change-of-scenery trade. In an MLBTR poll last week, a plurality of respondents felt that Torkelson would be dealt before Opening Day. At times, he has flashed the power that made him a top pick. He hit 31 homers in 2023. While his overall batting line wasn’t great, a .238/.318/.498 showing in that season’s second half provided hope that he’d taken a step forward. Even if he didn’t look like an all-around impact bat, he showed the potential for plus power. Torkelson’s production tanked in 2024, as he hit just .219/.295/.374 with 10 longballs over 92 MLB games. He spent more than a third of the season in Triple-A, where he drew a ton of walks but struck out at a 31% clip.
This may be the last opportunity for the Tigers to recoup anything of note in a Torkelson trade. While he certainly doesn’t have the value he had during his prospect days, Detroit would find some interest if they shopped him. Another down year could make him a DFA or non-tender candidate as he heads into what’d be his first year of arbitration. It’s possible Torkelson spends enough time in the minors this year that he doesn’t reach arbitration, but that would burn his last option season. If the Tigers keep him in Triple-A for that long, they’d be hard-pressed to carry him on the 2026 Opening Day roster.
Which teams are best suited to take a flier on Torkelson? Every team could theoretically fit, since he’s set for a salary around the league minimum and has one minor league option remaining. Still, it doesn’t make much sense for a team that has both first base and designated hitter solidified (i.e. Astros, Dodgers, Braves) to give up anything of note just to keep Torkelson in Triple-A. We’re looking for clubs that could realistically give him 400 or more plate appearances going into a make-or-break year.
Best Fits (listed alphabetically)
- Giants: San Francisco has been loosely tied to Pete Alonso this offseason. While it seems they’re reluctant to make a multi-year commitment at first base, they’ve looked for ways to add power. Installing a potential 30-homer bat at shortstop in Willy Adames helps, but the Giants are lacking pop in their first base/designated hitter mix. LaMonte Wade Jr. is an OBP-focused hitter who has come up in trade rumors. The Giants could use a committee approach at DH with the likes of Wilmer Flores, Brett Wisely and former top prospect Marco Luciano. While Torkelson would add another right-handed bat to a lineup that skews to that side, he carries a higher ceiling than Flores provides at this stage of his career. Wade will be a free agent next offseason, so there’s room for both Torkelson and top prospect Bryce Eldridge as a long-term first base/DH combination if both players work out.
- Mariners: Seattle’s only acquisition of note this offseason is the signing of Donovan Solano to a $3.5MM free agent deal. He’s a righty hitter who may spend the majority of his time at first base. Solano is a part-time player who has only reached 400 plate appearances in a season once. He’s going into his age-37 campaign. Solano can factor in at second and third base, neither of which are settled in Seattle. The M’s could find at-bats for Torkelson, especially if they offload part of the Mitch Haniger or Mitch Garver salaries via trade, though his kind of power-over-hit approach hasn’t traditionally played well at T-Mobile Park.
- Marlins: Most of the time, these trade fit exercises focus on competitive teams. Rebuilding clubs don’t often acquire major league talent. Torkelson’s four years of contractual control make this a different situation. If Miami still feels he’s a long-term regular, there’s a straightforward case for taking a flier. The Marlins could play Torkelson regularly for a season or two and market him as a more valuable trade chip down the line. If he flops, it’s not likely that they’ve taken at-bats away from any core pieces. Presumptive first baseman Jonah Bride hit well over 272 plate appearances last season, but he’s 29 years old and has a career .232/.325/.342 slash line in the majors. Deyvison De Los Santos could get at-bats at DH if the Fish want to give him a look.
- Padres: San Diego has yet to make a payroll-clearing trade from their infield. If they don’t, they’ll run things back with Luis Arraez at first base. They don’t have anyone slated for regular DH work, though, and payroll space is limited. Torkelson would be an affordable bat they could plug in there to divide time with Arraez between first base and designated hitter.
- Rockies: The Miami logic applies to the Rockies — arguably even more so. Former first-round pick Michael Toglia is a career .206/.287/.406 hitter. He hit 25 homers but struck out in almost a third of his plate appearances last year. He’s not demonstrably better than Torkelson, at least, and the Rox could be intrigued by the latter’s power upside at Coors Field. The DH spot is open after Charlie Blackmon’s retirement. Colorado can’t rely on Kris Bryant to stay healthy.
Plausible Long Shots
- Blue Jays: Toronto has kicked around the idea of playing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at third base more often. They don’t have a clear option for regular DH work. That Pete Alonso is on their radar suggests they’re not opposed to adding a first baseman. That could be an approach specific to Alonso rather than a buy-low candidate like Torkelson, though.
- Brewers: Milwaukee doesn’t have room for Torkelson right now. They’d no doubt love to offload a good portion of Rhys Hoskins’ $18MM salary. That’s easier than done, but if they line up a Hoskins deal, they could view Torkelson as a viable (and much more affordable) target to backfill first base.
- Reds: Cincinnati’s infield has gone from a perceived area of depth to its most significant weakness within a year. They’ve already attempted to address it this offseason with the acquisition of Gavin Lux to rotate between second and third base. First base remains a big question mark after Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s injury-plagued season and the down year from Jeimer Candelario. There’s enough rebound potential with both players that the Reds may not feel Torkelson is an upgrade, but it should at least be on the table.
- Twins: Minnesota is looking for a right-handed bat. That’s likelier to come in the outfield, but they also haven’t addressed first base since losing Carlos Santana to free agency. Torkelson could compete with Jose Miranda and Edouard Julien for reps between first and DH. Intra-division trades are rarely easy to pull off, especially when both teams are aiming for a playoff spot. However, a Torkelson trade would be (at least to an extent) an acknowledgement on Detroit’s part that they don’t believe he’ll be the player he was expected to become as a prospect. That could reduce their hesitancy about moving him to another AL Central team.
Poll: Will Jack Flaherty Or Pete Alonso Sign First?
Just a couple of weeks remain before pitchers and catchers report for spring training, and 32 of MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents have signed. That includes 17 of the top 20, with only third baseman Alex Bregman, first baseman Pete Alonso, and right-hander Jack Flaherty still remaining in that upper tier. Bregman’s market has appeared to pick up in recent days, even as he’s stuck to his guns on seeking a long-term contract, but things have remained fairly static for both Alonso and Flaherty.
That lack of movement has come in spite of both players beginning to consider shorter-term offers to at least some degree. In Flaherty’s case, it was reported earlier this month that his camp is “open” to short-term offers after spending much of the winter looking for a five-year deal. Alonso surely entered free agency seeking a long-term pact, but the interest he’s received has been focused on shorter-term arrangements similar to the ones signed by players like Cody Bellinger and Blake Snell last winter. Though he’s open to shorter-term pacts, he rejected a three-year offer from the Mets that guaranteed him around $70MM; his camp had reportedly offered the Mets a three-year deal at a higher annual salary that contained opt-out clauses.
Both Alonso and Flaherty saw their difficult trips through free agency spur candid public comments this weekend. In Flaherty’s case, he delivered those comments himself in an interview where he discussed his “weird” free agency before suggesting that many teams have become somewhat complacent in pursuing just the opportunity to make the postseason rather than trying to construct the best team possible. For Alonso, it was Mets owner Steve Cohen who described “exhausting” negotiations with the club’s longtime first baseman. Cohen noted that he made a “significant” offer to Alonso’s camp but hasn’t been interested in the contract structures being presented by them, calling the deals “highly asymmetric” against the team.
Flaherty and Alonso are two of the more difficult players to evaluate in this winter’s crop of free agents. Flaherty had an undeniably excellent platform season in 2024, pitching to a 3.17 ERA (127 ERA+) in 28 starts between the Tigers and Dodgers while striking out 29.9% of opponents. That was his first time making it to 150 innings in five years, however, as he pitched just 299 innings total over the 2020-23 seasons. That four-year stretch saw Flaherty struggle on a rate basis, as well, with a pedestrian 4.42 ERA (94 ERA+) and 4.36 FIP. In conjunction with high-profile reports around the trade deadline that brought forth concerns regarding Flaherty’s medical records, clubs have been reluctant to commit to the right-hander long term even in spite of his demonstrated upside.
For Alonso, the divisiveness is to be expected for a player with his profile. The slugger’s titanic power allowed him to explode onto the scene back in 2019 when he won Rookie of the Year, crushed 53 homers, and became an instant star. From 2019 to 2022, Alonso slashed .261/.349/.535 (137 wRC+) with 146 homers in 530 games and established himself as a consistent four-win player. The past two seasons have been less productive. He’s hit .229/.324/.480 (121 wRC+) since 2023 with career-worst 34 home runs in 2024. That’s still well above average, but now that Alonso’s bat has seemingly taken a step back from “elite,” his poor defense and relatively pedestrian on-base ability have are more problematic. Alonso’s star power and slugging ability appear to suggest he should be in line for a healthy long-term deal, but the market has moved away from this type of skill set. Were Alonso still in his mid-20s, perhaps it’d be overlooked, but he turned 30 in December.
The start of spring training hasn’t always been enough to convince star players who linger on market to sign, but it’s a strong incentive for players to accelerate talks. Further, the struggles of late signees who miss significant portions of spring training (Jordan Montgomery being the most prominent recent example) could further incentivize players to get a deal in place soon.
Who will be off the board first? Will Alonso be able to reach an agreement that bridges the gap between his peak and more recent production? Or will Flaherty find a team willing to gamble on his excellent 2024 but shaky track record from 2020-23? Have your say in the poll below:
Who Will Sign First?
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Jack Flaherty 55% (5,159)
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Pete Alonso 45% (4,184)
Total votes: 9,343
Where Can The Rangers Find A Closer?
The Rangers watched four key relievers hit the open market to begin the 2024-25 offseason. Closer Kirby Yates, who proved a bargain pickup on a one-year $4.5MM deal, reached free agency alongside David Robertson, Jose Leclerc and Andrew Chafin (who had a club option declined). Those four were the Rangers' top four late-inning options in the season's second half.
Beyond the difficulty of retaining any group of coveted free agents and/or rebuilding an entire relief corps, Texas faced financial difficulties. Re-signing Nathan Eovaldi and improving a lineup that struggled badly against fastballs were both priorities. Eovaldi cost more than most would've anticipated entering the offseason, benefitting from the hyper-aggressive free agent market for starters to the tune of a three-year, $75MM deal. Slugger Joc Pederson similarly commanded a stout $18.5MM-per-season annual value on his two-year deal. As with Eovaldi, that topped expectations.
Texas did trim some payroll and replace a bullpen arm in one fell swoop, trading the final two years of club control over first baseman Nathaniel Lowe to the Nationals in exchange for five seasons of control over lefty Robert Garcia. The 28-year-old's 4.22 ERA last season isn't particularly exciting, but a big 29.9% strikeout rate and sharp 6.4% walk rate portend improvements in the ERA department moving forward.
The rest of the Rangers' bullpen dealings have been cost-efficient in nature. Texas brought old friend Chris Martin back on a one-year, $5.5MM deal earlier this month. They had the advantage of being Martin's hometown club, which held appeal to him in the final season of his career; he's announced he expects to retire after the 2025 season and reportedly turned down more money elsewhere to pitch his final year close to home. Free agents Hoby Milner (another Fort Worth area native), Shawn Armstrong and Jacob Webb signed for $2.5MM, $1.25MM and $1.25MM, respectively.
Meanwhile, the free agents who've bid farewell to the Rangers seem to be in demand. Leclerc commanded a $10MM guarantee on a one-year deal with the A's. Yates has reached a tentative agreement with the Dodgers, though financial terms are not yet clear and he's not yet taken his physical. The aggressive market for late-inning arms figures to allow Robertson to cash in on an eight-figure salary. Chafin has garnered interest from the Yankees and Cubs at varying points this winter and is surely talking to other teams as the market for relievers heats up. In the past week alone, we've seen Tanner Scott, Yates, Paul Sewald and A.J. Minter reach free agent agreements. The markets for Carlos Estevez and Kyle Finnegan are picking up. The Cubs are talking to the Astros about Ryan Pressly.
Yates' agreement with the Dodgers rankled many Rangers fans who'd hoped they could bring the 37-year-old back as a finishing piece to the bullpen revamp. Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young, however, has indicated that while the door is still cracked for another acquisition, the bulk of the team's heavy lifting has likely been completed.
Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported Wednesday that the Rangers never made a formal offer to Yates, recognizing where his market was headed while they faced payroll constrictions from ownership. Per Grant, if the Rangers add to the 'pen, it'd likely have to come via the trade market. They're about $6MM shy of the luxury-tax threshold, per Roster Resource, and staying under that $241MM cutoff is said to be a priority for the Rangers.
It's always possible they could strike gold on another Yates-sized reclamation project; Kendall Graveman and Scott Barlow are among the buy-low candidates with some track record as a successful late-inning reliever. Generally speaking, however, if the Rangers want to add a solid closing option, they're not going to find one for under $6MM in free agency.
With that in mind, let's run through some possible options for Young, GM Ross Fenstermaker and their staff as they peruse the market in hopes of adding one more high-leverage option.
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Poll: Will The Yankees Be Able To Trade Marcus Stroman?
When AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil established himself as a foundational piece for the Yankees’ rotation, that left the club with an interesting dilemma: the club had more starters than space in the rotation. While trading Nestor Cortes to the Brewers in the deal that brought closer Devin Williams into the fold helped to unclog the rotation somewhat, the deal only came after the Yankees had already added Max Fried. With Fried joining Gil, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, and Marcus Stroman in the rotation mix, the club still has more starters than rotation spots available.
That’s led to plenty of speculation that another trade could be coming down the pipeline for the Yankees, with Stroman sticking out as the likeliest to move. The club has reportedly been shopping the veteran righty throughout the winter, and is said to be willing to pay down a portion of the veteran’s $18.5MM salary in order to get a deal done. It’s a sensible goal for the Yankees, given thatt those dollars could be reallocated to help bolster second or third base. Assuming Jazz Chisholm Jr. moves back to second base, some combination of DJ LeMahieu, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Oswald Peraza project to man the hot corner.
Unfortunately for the Yankees, Stroman is coming off the worst season of his career. The veteran posted a decent 4.31 ERA (95 ERA+) in 154 2/3 innings of work. That’s serviceable production for the back of a rotation, but a look under the hood reveals some worrying trends. Stroman posted career-worst numbers in terms of strikeout rate (16.7%), walk rate (8.9%), groundball rate (49.2%), and barrel rate (6.7%). That across-the-board decline in skills combined with his fastball velocity being nearly two ticks down from 2023 left him with a FIP that was 10% worse than league average and a 4.74 SIERA that was better than only Griffin Canning, Tyler Anderson, and Chris Flexen among all pitchers (min. 150 innings). While Stroman has been a fairly consistent three-WAR player throughout his career to this point, the wide-ranging decline in peripherals reduces optimism for a substantial bounceback in 2025 — his age-34 season.
Recent deals for veteran back-of-the-rotation arms suggest Stroman is overpaid, but perhaps not egregiously so. Alex Cobb landed a $15MM guarantee after making just three starts in 2024. Tomoyuki Sugano is 35 years old and has never thrown an MLB pitch; he commanded $13MM nonetheless. His 41-year-old rotation-mate in Baltimore, Charlie Morton, secured a $15MM guarantee of his own. It shouldn’t be all that difficult for the Yankees to find a taker for Stroman if they were able to pay down his salary to, say, the $10-12MM range that more well-regarded back-end veterans like Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and others have been able to find in free agency in recent years.
That would seemingly allow the Yankees plenty of flexibility to sign an infielder, but one other obstacle to a Stroman deal is the veteran’s 2026 vesting option. If the right-hander pitches 140 innings in 2025, his 2026 option will vest and become an $18MM player option for the 2026 season. It seems unlikely that Stroman would turn that option down without a major bounceback season, meaning that an acquiring team that wishes to avoid that outcome would have to find a way to limit him to just 140 innings this year. That’s far from impossible, seeing as the righty posted back-to-back seasons with fewer innings than that benchmark with the Cubs in 2022 and ’23, but barring significant IL time, Stroman’s new club may need to move him to the bullpen at some point.
How do MLBTR readers think things will shake out? Will the Yankees be able to get a Stroman deal done? And if so, how much of his salary will they have to pay down to make a trade happen? Have your say in the poll below:
Will The Yankees Deal Marcus Stroman?
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They'll trade Stroman while paying down at least half his salary. 41% (4,428)
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Stroman will be a Yankee on Opening Day 2025 30% (3,195)
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They'll trade Stroman while paying down less than half his salary. 27% (2,951)
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They'll trade Stroman without eating any money. 2% (227)
Total votes: 10,801
Poll: Where Will Jurickson Profar Sign?
After more than a decade in the majors, Jurickson Profar finally lived up to his top prospect billing in 2024, his age-31 season. The switch-hitter slashed .280/.380/.459 with 24 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and an NL-leading 18 hit-by-pitches. He did just about everything well, posting a high walk rate, a low strikeout rate, and above-average power numbers. His 139 wRC+ ranked 15th among qualified batters, while his 4.3 FanGraphs WAR placed him among the top 25 position players in either league. Even better, his Statcast expected metrics matched his actual output; his .364 xwOBA put him in the 92nd percentile of MLB hitters. With numbers like that, it was no surprise that Profar started for the NL All-Stars in the summer and collected a Silver Slugger at the end of the year.
Profar turns 32 next month, and his age, along with his spotty track record from 2012-23, will limit his earning potential in free agency. That’s why he ranked below fellow outfielders Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, despite outperforming both of them in wRC+ and fWAR last season. Nonetheless, the possibility that he could repeat his All-Star performance in 2025 should entice several suitors, and for that reason, Profar is easily the top outfielder still available on the free agent market. What’s more, his ability to hit from both sides of the plate, along with the fact that he is not saddled with the qualifying offer or seeking a particularly long-term commitment (he’s eyeing a three-year deal) should make him a good fit for any team in need of an impact bat in a corner outfield spot.
Indeed, with Santander off the market, the Profar rumor mill has picked up in recent days. According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, “a number of teams” are interested in his services, including the Blue Jays and Astros. After signing Santander, Toronto is set in the corner outfield department with Santander in left field and George Springer in right. However, the Jays could still use another bat, and they could facilitate the addition of Profar by rotating Profar, Santander, and Springer between the corner outfield and the DH spots. GM Ross Atkins recently made it clear the Blue Jays have money left to spend this winter as they strive to return to contention after a disappointing 2024. There is no doubt that Profar would help them move toward that goal.
As for the Astros, they could desperately use some more thump in the outfield after trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. With manager Joe Espada on the record that Houston would like to limit Yordan Alvarez‘s playing time in the field, the club’s current outfield options include Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick, Mauricio Dubón, and Taylor Trammell. As I wrote back in December, “It’s not hyperbole to say that could be one of the worst offensive outfields among contending teams.” Thus, it’s easy to see how Profar fits into the picture. The only question is if GM Dana Brown has the payroll flexibility to make such a signing. Earlier this month, KPRC’s Ari Alexander reported the Astros were “unlikely” to sign Santander because it would require a contract that would put them “well into the competitive balance tax for the second consecutive season.” Profar won’t command quite as high of a salary, but the Astros are already above the first luxury tax threshold as it is (per RosterResource). So, Brown might need to make a trade to clear some payroll before he can pursue any more free agent additions. Offloading Ryan Pressly’s $14MM salary from the books would surely help.
While Feinsand did not name any other suitors, the Royals are one more team that has been linked to Profar this winter. Joel Sherman of the New York Post connected the two sides back in November, writing that the Royals had “their eye on” the left fielder. However, there hasn’t been much smoke to that fire since, and Sherman’s report came before Kansas City traded for Jonathan India. Still, the Royals continue to seek another impact bat for their lineup. Although reporting has suggested they’d prefer to work on the trade market – they inquired about Nolan Arenado earlier in the offseason – signing Profar is another route they could take.
Two further landing spots to consider are the Angels and Tigers, both of whom were reportedly interested in Santander before he signed with the Blue Jays. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press described the Angels as one of the “frontrunners” to sign Santander, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post also mentioned Santander when he linked the Angels to Pete Alonso, acknowledging that the outfielder was a better positional fit. The Angels currently have Taylor Ward and Jo Adell penciled into the corner outfield spots, but Ward is a potential trade candidate (even if rumors of his availability may have been overblown) and Adell has hardly done enough to warrant a guaranteed starting job. Anthony Franco recently wrote about what the Angels could do next in a post for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, and he touched on Profar as a potential target.
Meanwhile, Petzold described Santander as a potential backup plan for the Tigers if they could not sign third baseman Alex Bregman. Considering that talks between Bregman and the Tigers are reportedly “at a standstill,” perhaps Detroit will pivot to Profar. After all, if the Tigers had interest in one switch-hitting corner outfielder, it stands to reason they’d have interest in another. While Riley Greene has one corner outfield spot on lock, manager A.J. Hinch could play Profar in the other corner. In addition, Profar could occasionally platoon at DH with Kerry Carpenter, who has struggled against left-handed pitching so far in his young career.
It would also be foolish to count out a reunion between Profar and the Padres. San Diego clearly likes what he brings to the table, having acquired him four separate times, first in a trade and then as a free agent in 2021, ’23, and ’24. Moreover, Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller worked in the Rangers’ international scouting department back when the team first signed Profar in 2009. It’s hard to imagine Preller could have lost interest now, given that Profar is coming off the best season of his career. On top of that, the Padres certainly still have space for him, having made no moves as of yet to replace his bat in the lineup. The big question, however, is if San Diego can afford to pay what Profar is seeking. The Padres are reportedly trying to reduce their payroll from its current $208MM projection (per RosterResource), which means they might need to offload some salary before considering any upgrades in free agency.
One more team that showed interest in Santander this winter was the Red Sox, but Chris Cotillo of MassLive suggests Boston is not actively pursuing Profar. That makes sense in light of manager Alex Cora’s recent comments that he hopes to use Masataka Yoshida in the outfield more often; Boston’s outfield picture is already quite crowded. In addition to Yoshida, the Red Sox have a pair of young, talented corner outfielders in Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. They also plan to use Ceddanne Rafaela as an outfielder “as much as possible” instead of shuttling him back and forth between shortstop and center field. On top of that, the Red Sox have top prospect Roman Anthony to consider. The promising outfielder could be ready for his MLB debut at some point in 2025.
Meanwhile, the Yankees and Mets were both serious suitors for Hernández earlier this winter, but the Yankees filled their hole in the outfield with Cody Bellinger, while the Mets presumably addressed that need by signing Jesse Winker. Other contenders that have already addressed needs in the corner outfield include the Orioles, Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers. Notably, the Braves are one team not on that list. While they have not been linked to any notable free agent outfielders so far this winter, they were thought to be exploring the outfield market back in November. They could certainly use another outfielder if Ronald Acuña Jr. opens the season on the injured list, and even once Acuña returns, they might prefer an upgrade over Jarred Kelenic. According to RosterResource, their projected payroll currently sits about $31MM below last year’s final figure, which should give them plenty of flexibility to offer Profar the kind of contract he’s looking for.
So, where do MLBTR readers think Profar will ultimately end up? Have your say in the poll below:
Where Will Jurickson Profar Sign?
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Braves 26% (2,609)
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Padres 19% (1,900)
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Another team 17% (1,697)
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Blue Jays 14% (1,393)
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Astros 11% (1,089)
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Angels 6% (650)
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Royals 5% (464)
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Tigers 4% (425)
Total votes: 10,227
MLB Mailbag: Flaherty, Nationals, Sasaki, Pirates, Giants, Twins
This week's mailbag covers how free agent righty Jack Flaherty might approach his current situation, whether Alex Bregman makes sense for the Nationals, accusations of the Dodgers having a predetermined deal for Roki Sasaki, low-cost right field options for the Pirates, how the Giants could fit in a bat, a comparison of Jordan Montgomery, Taijuan Walker, and Marcus Stroman, why the Twins collapsed, and much more.
Lance asks:
It's somewhat surprising to see Jack Flaherty kind of iced out, up to this point, in free agency given the urgency and value placed on quality starting pitching. Would he be in line for a 'better' contract if he opted for a long-term (5-yr) contract at a lower AAV than expected/preferred versus opting for a short-term contract that could see him saddled with a Qualifying Offer next offseason?
I'm seeing a bit of a Carlos Rodon parallel here. Rodon had an awesome breakout 2021 with the White Sox and hit the market without a qualifying offer, but with a dubious health track record. So he took two years and $44MM from the Giants with an opt-out, had an even better season, got the QO, and still landed a $162MM deal.
Rodon's Giants contract came after the lockout, and that was an unorthodox winter for all free agents. But he was only 29 at the time, and I imagine he had lower-AAV longer-term offers like you mentioned for Flaherty. If so, he made himself a lot of money by not taking that type of deal.
That worked out so well for Rodon because he dominated in 2022. Flaherty would need to stay healthy and pitch well in 2025 to get the $100MM+ deal he's likely seeking. He doesn't turn 30 until October, so he's in a good position to take a short-term deal (with opt-outs if it's multiyear) and go back to the market even with the QO. If he really wanted to be strategic, he could sign with a team that is likely to trade him at the deadline, and dodge the QO again. If Flaherty's 2025 is decent but not great, he could also consider accepting a QO.
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Poll: Spencer Torkelson’s Future With The Tigers
When the Tigers took Spencer Torkelson with the first overall pick in 2020, Baseball America described him as “the safest pick at the top of the draft” and a potential “middle-of-the-order force,” à la Pete Alonso. And keep in mind, they weren’t talking about present-day Alonso, who is struggling to find a market in free agency, but rather a younger version who had just set the MLB rookie record with 53 home runs in his debut campaign.
Torkelson tore up the minor leagues in 2021, rising from High-A to Triple-A and mashing at every level. Ahead of his rookie season in 2022, he was a consensus top-10 prospect in the game. Most sources, including Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and The Athletic’s Keith Law placed him in the top five. The only players who ranked ahead of him on every one of those lists were Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. Suffice it to say, the future was bright for the young first baseman.
Yet, the bright lights of the big leagues proved too much for a 22-year-old Torkelson. He didn’t just fail to reach his sky-high ceiling. Rather, his supposedly sturdy floor completely collapsed. In 110 games, the righty batter barely managed a .200 average and a .600 OPS. He hit just eight home runs, and his .117 isolated power was well below average, especially for a first baseman. While his expected stats were slightly more promising, a 34th-percentile xwOBA could hardly assuage the very real concerns about his lifeless bat. What’s more, a mid-season demotion back to Triple-A did little to help. He was surprisingly ineffective in the minors, too, posting a .738 OPS and 100 wRC+ in 35 games.
Torkelson got off to a similarly poor start in 2023, but he turned things around late in the year. Through the end of July, he had a .707 OPS and 94 wRC+, with 15 home runs in 104 games. Those were better numbers than he posted in 2022 but still disappointing for an MLB first baseman and well below expectations. Then, from August 1 through the end of the season, Torkelson finally seemed to tap into his full potential. He crushed 11 doubles and 16 home runs in 55 games, good for a .282 ISO. His .855 OPS and 133 wRC+ were similarly impressive, and his .364 xwOBA was right in line with his .362 wOBA. The sample size was small, but considering everything Torkelson had done in college and the minors to become a top-10 prospect, it was hard not to think the powerful slugger was finally becoming everything the Tigers hoped he could be.
Then came 2024. Over the first two months of this past season, Torkelson looked like his rookie self again, slashing .201/.266/.330 with a 71 wRC+. That led to another minor league demotion, and things didn’t look much better at Triple-A. The man who terrorized minor league pitchers in 2021 was nowhere to be seen, and he put up a .799 OPS and 108 wRC+ in 58 games. Torkelson looked better upon his return to the Tigers in August, but his late-season performance wasn’t as convincing as it was in 2023. His 125 wRC+ was powered by a high BABIP and a wOBA more than 20 points above his xwOBA. While his 11.3% walk rate was a promising sign, his 32.5% strikeout rate suggested he was still often overmatched against big league pitching. That certainly seemed to be the case in the playoffs, when he went just 4-for-21 with an 82 wRC+ in seven postseason games.
Three seasons into his major league career, Torkelson’s top prospect shine has worn off. In close to 1,500 plate appearances, he has failed to establish himself as an above-average hitter, let alone an everyday first baseman. The Tigers could afford to let him play through his issues during their rebuild, but now that they have eyes on contention, it will be harder to justify giving regular reps to such a mediocre bat. To that point, they seem to have already replaced him on the roster. After signing Gleyber Torres to play second base, Detroit’s president of baseball operations Scott Harris confirmed that Colt Keith will be the team’s primary first baseman in 2025. With Keith at first base and Kerry Carpenter at DH, it’s hard to see how Torkelson fits in. Torkelson was once a more promising prospect than either of them, but Carpenter has mashed at the major league level (career 136 wRC+), and the Tigers showed their faith in Keith with a six-year, $28.6425MM extension before he’d even made his MLB debut. Without a guaranteed contract or much big league success, Torkelson is on the outside looking in.
If Torkelson plays well this spring, the Tigers could still find a way to get him in the lineup. To that point, Harris says he told Torkelson, “If you have a big offseason and a big spring training, there’s a role for you on this team.” At the very least, the righty batter could be the short side of a platoon with the lefty-batting Carpenter. Last year, manager A.J. Hinch tried to shield Carpenter from southpaws, against whom he has a career 69 wRC+. Meanwhile, Torkelson has a 111 wRC+ in 357 career PA against opposite-handed pitching. Keith is a left-handed hitter, too, so Torkelson could also spell him at first base with a tough lefty on the bump. If top prospect Jace Jung struggles (and the Tigers don’t add another third baseman in free agency), the team could be forced to move either Keith or Torres over to third, freeing up playing time for Torkelson at first base. Finally, Detroit could also consider giving Carpenter more run in the outfield if Torkelson is hitting well enough to deserve the reps at DH.
Of course, that all relies on Torkelson doing enough to convince the Tigers to give him another serious chance. An alternative route, and perhaps the best possible outcome for everyone involved, would be trading Torkelson to a team that can offer him a more regular role. Not only might a change of scenery do him some good, but consistent playing time at a consistent position can only help as he tries to figure things out at the plate. One can understand why Detroit might be hesitant to sell low on a former first-overall pick. On the other hand, it will be hard for him to increase his trade value when he isn’t playing every day. If the Tigers trade him now, at least they could guarantee some sort of return. A true rebuilding club like the Marlins could offer Torkelson the most playing time, but other teams that could be looking for an inexpensive right-handed first base/DH bat include the Mariners, Padres, Pirates, and Twins. Torkelson still has an option, so sending him back down to Triple-A Toledo is another possibility.
So, where do MLBTR readers think Spencer Torkelson will be come Opening Day? Share your thoughts by voting in the poll below!
Where Will Spencer Torkelson Be On Opening Day?
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Traded to a new organization 34% (2,860)
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With the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens 26% (2,159)
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On the Tigers' bench 22% (1,850)
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In the Tigers' starting lineup 18% (1,461)
Total votes: 8,330