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The Rays Already Look Primed For A Rebound In 2025

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After years of regularly exceeding expectations brought about by their low payrolls and reliance on unproven talent and/or reclamation projects, the 2024 Rays have finally had a rough season. At 74-78, they've been out of playoff contention for quite some time and have uncharacteristically been outscored by 60 runs. This will be their first playoff miss since 2018, although even that season saw them win 90 games. This is shaping up to be Tampa Bay's first sub-.500 season since 2017 -- a remarkable feat when considering the front office's perennially limited budget and the subsequent roster churn that brings about.

The Rays operated as sellers at the deadline, trading their most established power bat (Randy Arozarena), two starting pitchers (Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale), their All-Star third baseman (Isaac Paredes), one of their best relievers (Jason Adam) and a series of useful role players (Amed Rosario, Shawn Armstrong, Phil Maton, Tyler Zuber).

Oftentimes, deadline sales of that magnitude serve as a portent for an offseason dedicated to rebuilding, as recently illustrated by the 2023 White Sox and the 2021-22 Nationals. That type of rebuild, however, seems largely unnecessary in Tampa Bay. Even with a lineup consisting of unproven journeymen and a host of light-hitting, glove-first regulars (e.g. Jose Siri, Ben Rortvedt, Jose Caballero), the Rays already look like a team that could jump back into contention as early as next season.

Let's take a look at the reasons for that.

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Previewing The 2024-25 Free Agent Class: First Base

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With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams kicked things off with a look at a generally weak catching class. There’s a stronger group at first base, even if age is an issue for a lot of these players. A quick note on eligibility: we’re looking only at players who have appeared in the majors this season and are either primary first baseman or have logged 100+ innings at the position. Utility players like Enrique Hernández and Brandon Drury can play first base but will be covered in future positional previews. Ages are for the 2025 season. Stats are through play on September 18.

Top of the Class

Alonso is in a tier of his own in this year’s first base class. He is one of the sport’s preeminent power bats. Even in a relative down year, he has drilled 33 homers while slugging .472. Alonso has topped 30 longballs in all five full seasons of his career and was on a 43-homer pace during the shortened schedule. His .246/.331/.472 batting line is 26 points better than league average, according to wRC+. That’s tied for fifth among first basemen (min. 400 PAs) and feels like Alonso’s floor for the next few years.

The Mets will make him a qualifying offer, which he’ll reject. Alonso reportedly declined a $158MM extension offer in 2023 — made under former GM Billy Eppler. He’ll probably take aim at $200MM, though it has been more than a decade since any first basemen hit that mark. The more recent Matt Olson ($168MM) and Freddie Freeman ($162MM) guarantees may be more realistic benchmarks.

Everyday Players

Walker didn’t get a real MLB look until his age-28 season. He seized the opportunity once it finally presented itself and is one of the best all-around first basemen in the sport. Walker won consecutive Gold Gloves between 2022-23 while posting an OPS above .800 in three straight years. He has 26 homers — including seven in just 29 plate appearances as a visitor at Dodger Stadium — with an excellent .257/.342/.485 slash line. An oblique strain that shelved him through August is the main reason he might not get to 30 homers for a third straight year.

Arizona has an easy call to tag Walker with a qualifying offer. He’s likely to decline in search of a three- or four-year contract. Multi-year deals for first basemen in their mid-30s are rare, but Walker should be in high enough demand to merit it.

Goldschmidt had one of the worst stretches of his career early in the season. As Steve Adams explored this week, the 2022 NL MVP has kicked things into gear in recent weeks. This will be Goldy’s worst season overall, as he has career lows in all three slash stats (.242/.302/.412). His .270/.322/.485 line since the All-Star Break is more in line with what the Cardinals were expecting. Goldschmidt has never hit free agency — he signed extensions with both Arizona and St. Louis — and therefore has never received a qualifying offer. It seems unlikely that St. Louis would risk him accepting a salary exceeding $21MM for next year, but that’d be an alright investment if the Cards expect him to carry his second-half form into 2025.

The Twins signed Santana for $5.25MM in February. He had a terrible April but has been a steady, productive player over the past few months. Since the start of May, the switch-hitter owns a strong .253/.339/.446 line with 18 homers across 446 plate appearances. He remains one of the three to five best defensive first basemen in the game despite his age. The ultra-durable Santana has again avoided the injured list and has reached 140 games for the 12th time in his career. He certainly doesn’t carry the upside of Alonso or Walker, but he has easily outperformed Minnesota’s modest investment.

Turner is more of a designated hitter than a full-time first baseman, but he has gotten 35 starts at the position between the Blue Jays and Mariners. Turner had a fairly modest .256/.350/.372 showing over 91 games with Toronto. It looked as if he might be slowing down at age 39, but he has found another gear since being traded at the deadline. Turner owns a .260/.361/.420 slash with five home runs in 39 games with Seattle — impressive power output in a home park that has stymied a lot of the M’s offensive acquisitions. By measure of wRC+, Turner has been 17 percentage points above league average at the plate. That’s slightly better than last year’s .276/.345/.455 showing with the Red Sox. Turner got $13MM last offseason and still hasn’t dropped off.

Platoon and Part-Time Bats

Bell had a rough first few months, hitting .239/.305/.394 in 104 games with the Marlins. He has found his stride after a deadline trade to Arizona, where he carries a .278/.364/.421 slash with four homers through 154 trips to the plate. The aggregate production is still middling — a league average .249/.320/.401 line with very poor defensive grades — but Bell is finishing the season on a high note. He has been a streaky hitter throughout his career who can hit in the middle third of a lineup when he’s at his best.

Canha has logged a career-high 356 1/3 innings at first base, a bit more time than he has played in the outfield. That’s probably a sign of things to come as he gets into his late-30s. The affable veteran has a .238/.341/.342 slash over 451 plate appearances between the Tigers and Giants on the season. He won’t match this year’s $11.5MM salary but should have no trouble finding another big league deal.

Late-career Solano just hits. The righty-swinging infielder has been an average or better hitter in six straight seasons. Solano has carried that over in stints between the Giants, Reds, Twins and Padres. He’s sporting a .286/.340/.412 slash with seven homers through 285 plate appearances for San Diego this season. The market doesn’t value Solano’s skillset highly — he had to settle for a minor league deal last offseason — but he’s a nice player to have in a bat-first role off the bench.

Tellez started the season horribly, went on an absolute tear midway through the summer, and has crashed back to earth in September. In aggregate, he has a .245/.302/.395 slash with 13 homers over 410 plate appearances for the Pirates. It’s slightly below-average offense and sub-replacement production overall considering his lack of defensive value. Tellez has decent career numbers against right-handed pitching (.235/.302/.450) and is a better fit as a lefty bench bat than a regular at first base.

Depth Types

Abreu was one of the worst players in the league in the season’s first half. The former MVP hit .124/.167/.195 over 35 games. The Astros released him midway through the second season of his ill-fated $58.5MM free agent deal. Reporter Francys Romero tweeted in June that Abreu would sit out the rest of the season but could make a comeback effort next year. It’d be on a minor league deal, but if he gets back to the majors, he’d only make the league minimum with his new team. Houston still owes him the rest of his $19.5MM salary.

Cooper appeared in 36 games between the Cubs and Red Sox, hitting .206/.267/.299 while striking out 30% of the time. He has been far better over a 19-game stint in Triple-A with the Orioles, where he sports a .299/.388/.493 slash with four homers.

Davis is in Triple-A with the Orioles, his fourth organization of the year. After being cut loose by the Giants in a late spring cost-saving move, he has slumped to a career-worst .218/.293/.338 line between the A’s and Yankees. Davis hasn’t hit at all in the minors either, striking out at a 44.4% clip while batting .150 in 30 games. He was a solid regular for San Francisco just last season and should be able to find a minor league deal somewhere.

Gallo is hitting .152/.276/.305 across 67 games with the Nationals on a $5MM free agent deal. Washington is going to decline its end of a 2025 mutual option. Gallo is striking out as much as ever and hasn’t hit for anywhere near the level of power necessary to offset that.

Gurriel spent most of the season in Triple-A with the Braves. He had an impressive .292/.378/.485 showing. While that didn’t earn him a look in Atlanta, the Royals acquired him in a minor trade after losing Vinnie Pasquantino to injury. Gurriel is hitting .385 over 10 games with Kansas City.

Smith got a decent run as the Red Sox’s fill-in while Triston Casas was injured. The former Met took 278 plate appearances and posted a slightly below-average .237/.317/.390 line with six home runs. He briefly caught on with the Reds after Boston let him go. Smith didn’t hit over a minuscule nine-game sample in Cincinnati and has been a free agent since the Reds removed him from the 40-man roster earlier this month.

Urshela is primarily a third baseman, but he logged 15 starts at first base for Detroit this year. Between the Tigers and Braves, he owns a mediocre .241/.280/.335 slash with six homers across 422 plate appearances. It’s his least productive year since he broke out as an everyday player with the Yankees in 2019.

The former All-Star hasn’t been the same since a bout with thoracic outlet syndrome. Walsh hit .226/.317/.321 in 17 games for the Rangers while Nathaniel Lowe was on the injured list early this season. He subsequently hit .185 with a 37% strikeout rate in Triple-A for the White Sox and was released a couple weeks before the deadline.

Player Options

Bellinger can opt out of his three-year, $80MM deal with the Cubs. He’d be leaving $50MM on the table to do so and has another opt-out chance after next season. Bellinger has had a nice season but hasn’t answered teams’ questions about his subpar exit velocities. He’s hitting .268/.330/.435 with 18 homers while striking out at just a 16% clip. He’s still capable of playing center field but has also gotten decent run in right field and at first base. Bellinger could probably beat $50MM if he simply wanted to maximize his guarantee, but he’s not likely to match next year’s $27.5MM salary on a multi-year pact. He could bet on himself and view the 2025-26 offseason as the right time to opt out.

Hoskins signed with the Brewers on a two-year, $34MM deal that allowed him to opt out after the first season. It’s a net $18MM call. He’d collect a $4MM buyout if he opts out or could secure an $18MM salary for next season (plus a matching $4MM buyout on a 2026 mutual option). This isn’t a great time to retest the market. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference have each graded the typically consistent Hoskins as a replacement level player this year. He has 25 homers but personal lows in batting average (.212) and on-base percentage (.299) while striking out a career-high 28% rate. If he goes on a tear in the playoffs, maybe the calculus changes, but this looks like an option that’ll be exercised.

Flores holds a $3.5MM option on his deal with the Giants. San Francisco would have an $8.5MM option if the veteran infielder declined his end. That won’t be necessary, as Flores looks like a lock to take the $3.5MM salary. He hit .206/.277/.318 across 242 plate appearances and suffered a season-ending right knee injury in July.

Club Options

The Orioles hold an $8MM option for next season. O’Hearn’s strong first half made that look like a clear bargain. The left-handed hitter went into the All-Star Break with a .274/.335/.456 line with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His plate discipline is still strong but his power has dissipated in the second half. O’Hearn only has two homers with a .224/.317/.340 line since the Break, including a .163/.226/.245 showing this month. Baltimore should have a lot of payroll flexibility and could bet on O’Hearn to bounce back, but this is more of a borderline call than it seemed six weeks ago.

The Yankees are going to opt for a $6MM buyout in lieu of a $17MM option on Rizzo. The three-time All-Star is hitting .219/.285/.330 over 347 plate appearances. He missed a couple months earlier in the season after breaking his arm in a collision with Boston reliever Brennan Bernardino. This has been Rizzo’s toughest year since his rookie campaign.

Previewing The 2024-25 Free Agent Class: Catchers

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With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market. We’ll start things off with catchers. Ages listed are for the 2025 season, and stats are up to date through Sept. 18.

Potential Regulars/Platoon Options

Elias Diaz (34)

Diaz was the MVP of the 2023 All-Star Game, but he’s struggled to the point where that feels like a distant memory. The Rockies released him in August, a move that surprised some but came on the heels of a bleak slump following a calf injury. He later latched on with the Padres. Diaz made enough contact early in the season that he’s still sporting a .262 batting average, but it’s an empty .262 as it’s coupled with a .310 OBP and .369 slugging percentage. Since returning from the injured list in June, he’s hitting .198/.238/.259.

While he’s never been considered a strong defender, Diaz has posted above-average marks in 2024’s relatively small sample. If a club thinks he can sustain those over a full year and bounce back to the form he had prior to his calf strain, he could land another starting job. It’s also possible that his shaky defensive track record and grim finish to the season relegate him to part-time offers or even a minor league deal, however. He’s the most volatile name in this category with regard to his potential contract status.

Kyle Higashioka (35)

Higashioka has saved his best output of his career for his age-34 campaign. In his first season with the Padres, he’s swatted a career-high 16 homers in just 241 plate appearances. He’s a perennially plus defender behind the dish who rarely gets on base, and that hasn’t changed, but this year’s power output could pique the interest of clubs on a one- or two-year deal, despite his age.

Higashioka strikes out too much and doesn’t walk frequently enough, and that’s true versus both righties and lefties. His .223/.271/.487 batting line is one of the stranger slashes you’ll see across the league this season, but between his power and plus glovework he’s been worth 1.3 bWAR and 1.6 fWAR. It’s not out of the question to think a catching-needy club could see a potential two-win catcher here and give him the biggest role of his career. To this point, Higashioka has never logged even 300 plate appearances in a big league season.

Danny Jansen (30)

Jansen looked like the clear top option in this class coming into the season, but he’s tanked his stock with a .207/.309/.356 batting line. That 91 wRC+ is still about average for a catcher, but Jansen’s typically strong framing grades have taken a dive this season, as has his power. He’s hit just nine homers this year after popping 17 in 301 plate appearances a year ago and 15 in 248 plate appearances in 2022. This year’s .146 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is a career-low mark.

Jansen is relatively young and from 2021-23 slashed a combined .237/.317/.487 with 43 taters in only 754 plate appearances — all while playing well-regarded defense. He could still land a multi-year deal based on that track record, but it’s not going to be nearly as strong of one as he’d have managed if he’d maintained his output over the three prior seasons. Jansen has also missed substantial time due to various injuries over the years — broken wrist, two separate broken fingers, oblique strain, groin strain, hamstring strain — and the “injury-prone” label won’t do him any favors.

Carson Kelly (30)

Kelly may have boosted his stock as much as Jansen harmed his own. The former top prospect has long been a terrific defender but looked absolutely lost at the plate in 2022-23. In 2024, he’s lopped nearly nine percentage points off his strikeout rate, maintained a nearly average walk rate and improved not only the frequency of his contact but the quality of his batted balls as well.

The resulting .243/.320/.373 batting line is right on par with that of a league-average hitter and about 10% better than the average catcher. He’s also still a premium defensive backstop, evidenced by better-than-average framing and blocking marks as well as a 26% caught-stealing rate (30% with the Tigers, where he spent the bulk of the season). Kelly’s rebound has flown under the radar, but a league-average bat with a plus glove behind the plate heading into his age-30 season is a recipe for a multi-year deal and a potential regular role in 2025.

Gary Sanchez (32)

Sanchez’s defense has improved over the years. He’s not a liability behind the plate despite still being unable to completely shake off that label from earlier in his career. As that uptick in defensive value has transpired, however, his contributions with the bat have waned. He’s hitting .224/.313/.399 this season — roughly league-average offense — and has smacked 10 homers in 256 plate appearances. Sanchez has spent more time at DH than at catcher over the past two seasons but has fared better offensively when he’s in the game behind the plate.

Jacob Stallings (35)

Stallings’ elite defensive ratings from earlier in his career have declined to the point where he’s drawn below-average marks in three straight seasons. A downturn in his framing metrics are the primary cause for that deterioration, though he also posted well below-average caught-stealing marks in 2022-23. He’s rebounded with his throwing this season (23% caught-stealing). More than that, Stallings is enjoying far and away his best offensive season in the majors. His .260/.353/.450 batting line is “only” about 12% better than average by measure of wRC+, thanks to some heavy weighting for Coors Field, but Stallings has actually produced better numbers away from Coors than at home. A career year at age 34 is going to draw some skepticism, but he should draw a big league deal and receive decent playing time — perhaps even back with the Rockies, as there’s mutual interest in a reunion.

Backups/Depth Candidates

Tucker Barnhart (34)

Barnhart won a pair of Gold Gloves earlier in his career but has seen his glovework decline and his playing time dwindle as his bat has eroded. He hit .173/.287/.210 in 96 plate appearances with the D-backs this season and is likely looking at another minor league deal this winter.

Yan Gomes (37)

Gomes hit .154/.179/.242 in 96 plate appearances with the Cubs before being released in favor of fellow depth option Tomas Nido. He’s only a year removed from a solid season in Chicago, but coming off a season like that and heading into his age-37 campaign, he’ll very likely need to take a minor league deal if he wants to continue playing.

Yasmani Grandal (36)

A plus framer but one of the worst-throwing catchers in the sport at this point, Grandal has been a backup in Pittsburgh and posted a 9% caught-stealing rate this year. He’s hitting .218/.293/.371 with seven dingers in 228 plate appearances. He could land another backup gig, but he’s not a lock to land a big league deal.

Austin Hedges (32)

Hedges is as good as it gets defensively but nearly as bad as it gets offensively. He’s sporting a 23 wRC+ for the second straight season, indicating he’s been 77% worse than average at the plate. Since 2023, he owns a combined .173/.224/.227 line in 353 plate appearances. The Guardians love his glove so much they gave him $4MM and have kept him on the roster all season. He’ll likely command another low-cost one-year deal to serve as a backup.

Martin Maldonado (38)

Maldonado produced only a .119/.174/.230 slash in 147 plate appearances with the White Sox this season. He was better at the plate with the Astros from 2021-23 but still one of the sport’s least-productive hitters in that three-year stretch. Teams love Maldonado’s game-calling and work with their pitchers, but his lack of offense has reached dire levels.

James McCann (35)

McCann’s carrying trait used to be pummeling left-handed pitching, but he’s faded in that regard in recent years. He’s hitting .220/.266/.340 in 218 plate appearances with the Orioles. A minor league deal feels likely for the former White Sox and Mets backstop.

Omar Narvaez (33)

The Mets released Narvaez after he hit .154/.191/.185 in 69 plate appearances. He signed a minor league deal with the Astros and hit .203/.327/.316 for their Triple-A club. Narvaez hasn’t produced at the plate since 2021 and will be limited to minor league offers.

Tomas Nido (31)

Nido just signed a minor league deal with the Tigers. He’s been released by both the Mets and Cubs this season. Like many others on this list, he’s a plus defender with a negligible offensive ceiling. In his past 675 plate appearances in the majors, Nido is a .215/.249/.305 hitter — numbers that mirror his .210/.245/.309 line almost exactly.

Club Options

Austin Barnes (35) – $3.5MM club option

The Dodgers have long valued Barnes’ framing skills, but his throwing has cratered over the past two seasons, as he’s caught just 10.5% of runners attempting to steal against him. Barnes is hitting .261/.327/.306 in 149 plate appearances. It’s a borderline call for the Dodgers to keep him, particularly with Will Smith now signed for a decade and a trio of younger catching options behind him (Hunter Feduccia, Dalton Rushing, Diego Cartaya). If he’s bought out, he’ll get some interest as a framing-driven backup.

Travis d’Arnaud (36) – $8MM club option (no buyout)

The Braves love d’Arnaud, who’s posted a solid .242/.306/.446 batting line and 14 homers in 317 plate appearances this season. Even if Atlanta doesn’t want to retain d’Arnaud at $8MM, they could turn down the option, pay no buyout, and try to bring him back at a lower rate.

Luke Maile (34) – $3.5MM club option ($500K buyout)

Maile is typically regarded as a solid defender but has seen his glovework dip this year while posting one of the worst offensive performances of his career: .157/.255/.228 in 146 plate appearances. He’ll be a depth option for catcher-needy clubs on a minor league deal this winter.

Max Stassi (34) – $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout

Stassi hasn’t played this season due to hip surgery. His option will be bought out. He last appeared in a big league game in 2022. He’s regarded as a premium framer who has at times shown offensive upside, but he’ll be looking at a minor league deal this offseason.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions

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The regular season is winding down, and while nearly half the league is still focused on postseason play (or qualifying for said playoffs), there are more teams than not beginning to shift their focus and look ahead to the offseason. The beginning of every offseason brings with it a slew of roster decisions, ranging from qualifying offers to player opt-outs and club options. This year will see more than 30 decisions on club options come due once the World Series has completed. We don’t have a complete picture of how all of these players will finish the season. Their play in the final week, plus any postseason heroics and of course the potential for a significant injury could all impact the teams’ final decisions. But with about 94% of the regular season in the books, most teams know which way they’re leaning with regard to these decisions.

Let’s take a look at each one from a high level…

Austin Barnes, C, Dodgers: $3.5MM club option

The Dodgers’ love Barnes’ framing skills. They probably don’t love that he’s 13-for-122 in throwing out base thieves over the past two seasons (10.6%). Barnes isn’t a good hitter, but he’s bounced back from last year’s abysmal .180/.256/.242 output to his .261/.327/.306 in 149 plate appearances this year. The Dodgers have a trio of younger options behind Will Smith, including Diego Cartaya, Hunter Feduccia and top prospect Dalton Rushing (though Rushing has been working in left field lately). Perhaps it’s finally time to move on, but the cost is cheap enough that they could consider the option.

Aaron Bummer, LHP, Braves: $7.25MM club option ($1.25MM buyout)

A pair of three-run outings over the past five weeks have inflated Bummer’s ERA from 3.16 to 3.71, but he’s still generally been a quality reliever after coming over from the White Sox in the offseason. Drilling beneath that earned run average, Bummer sports clearly plus rate stats: 28.8% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, 60.4% grounder rate. That ground-ball rate ranks eighth in baseball among the 352 pitchers who’ve tossed at least 50 innings in 2024. That alone would make Bummer’s option likely to be picked up, but the fact that the Braves hold a 2026 option valued at $7.5MM only sweetens the pot. This feels likely to be exercised.

Andrew Chafin, LHP, Rangers: $6.5MM club option ($500K buyout)

Chafin was very good in Detroit prior to being traded and has struggled with the Rangers since the swap. He’s pitched 14 2/3 innings for Texas and logged a 4.30 ERA with more troubling underlying stats, including a 16.9% walk rate and 1.84 HR/9. Chafin has a strong track record and will get another big league deal this winter, but that’ll probably come after having this option bought out.

Seranthony Dominguez, RHP, Orioles: $8MM club option ($500K buyout)

Dominguez has had a bizarre Orioles tenure. He’s stepped into the ninth inning, saved nine games, punched out a huge 32.9% of his opponents and recorded a tidy 3.26 ERA. He’s also been clobbered for a staggering six home runs in just 19 1/3 innings. A ridiculous 37.5% of the hits he’s allowed with Baltimore have been home runs. Dominguez is averaging better than 98 mph on his heater and sporting elite strikeout/walk rates. If the O’s believe his home run troubles to be a small-sample fluke, this net $7.5MM is a reasonable price to pay for a flamethrowing late-inning reliever — even if he’s working as a setup man to a returning Felix Bautista next year.

Kyle Gibson, RHP, Cardinals: $12MM club option ($1MM buyout)

Gibson has been precisely the stabilizing innings eater the Cardinals hoped to be getting when they signed him. He’s tossed 159 2/3 innings of 4.11 ERA ball, striking out 21.3% of opponents (his best since 2019). His 9.2% walk rate is higher than usual for the 6’6″ righty, but Gibson is limiting homers (1.13 HR/9), keeping the ball on the ground at an above-average clip (45.2%) and averaging better than 5 2/3 innings per start. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently noted how quickly the Missouri native has become a vital leader in the clubhouse as well. For a net $11MM, Gibson feels like a lock to be back in St. Louis.

Marco Gonzales, LHP, Pirates: $15MM club option

Gonzales began the season with three nice starts for the Pirates before enduring a three-month absence due to a flexor injury. He pitched well in his mid-July return, then struggled through three starts before landing back on the shelf and eventually undergoing flexor surgery that’ll keep him out for a significant portion of next season. This would be a no-brainer to decline even if there were a buyout of some magnitude, but there isn’t one, so it’s a foregone conclusion that this will be declined.

Luke Jackson, RHP, Braves: $7MM club option ($2MM buyout)

The 33-year-old Jackson has trimmed his ERA a bit since being traded from San Francisco back to Atlanta, but he’s still sitting on a 5.12 mark this season (4.50 with the Braves). He’s walked 11.1% of his opponents in 2024, including a grim 13.5% mark in 16 frames with Atlanta. The Braves already have a deep and pricey bullpen. Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson and the aforementioned Bummer (assuming his option is indeed exercised) will earn a combined $39.25MM next year. Even if the Braves want to bring Jackson back, they could probably buy this option out and look to do so at a lower rate.

Eloy Jimenez, OF/DH, Orioles: $16.5MM club option ($3MM buyout)

After a hot start following his trade to the Orioles, Jimenez has been a disappointment in Baltimore. Heralded as one of the game’s top prospects and signed to a then-record contract for a player with no MLB experience, he homered 31 times as a rookie but has since battled injuries as his offensive output has dwindled. Jimenez still makes boatloads of hard contact, but most of it comes on the ground; his 56.3% grounder rate is one of the highest in baseball, and it negates his immense raw power. It’d be a shock if the Orioles picked this up for a net $13.5MM.

Merrill Kelly, RHP, D-backs: $7MM club option ($1MM buyout)

Shoulder problems have limited Kelly to 11 starts this season, and he’s posted a 4.00 ERA with uncharacteristic homer issues in 63 innings (1.57 HR/9). He’s also sporting a 19.1% strikeout rate that’s down more than six percentage points from 2023. Even still, this is a flat bargain price for a pitcher who’s given the Snakes 813 2/3 innings of 3.82 ERA ball since signing after a terrific four-year run in the KBO. Barring a scenario where his shoulder is in worse shape than anyone realizes, this option is one of the easier calls to exercise among this year’s slate.

Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF, Rays: $10.5MM club option ($1MM buyout)

It’s been a fairly typical season for Lowe. He’s had strong production at the plate when healthy — but that’s again been a notable caveat. The 30-year-old slugger is hitting .244/.319/.476 with 18 round-trippers in only 379 plate appearances. An oblique strain cost him about six weeks early in the season. Lowe has never had a below-average season at the plate. This year’s 126 wRC+ is an exact match for his career mark. His salary might be getting steep for the Rays’ frugal owner, but a $10.5MM salary in 2025 and an $11.5MM club option for the 2026 season give him trade value for Tampa Bay.

Lance Lynn, RHP, Cardinals: $12MM club option ($1MM buyout)

Because of a knee injury that shelved him on July 31 and kept him out of action into September, Lynn hasn’t pitched as many innings as his rotationmate on this list, Gibson. He’s been effective when on the bump, posting a 3.96 ERA in 111 1/3 innings with respectable strikeout and walk rates of 21.3% and 8.6%. Lynn has been unable to complete five innings in nearly one-third of his starts this season, though, and he’s heading into his age-38 season (as opposed to Gibson’s age-37). With Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, Steven Matz and presumably Gibson all in next year’s rotation, plus younger arms like Andre Pallante, Michael McGreevy and Sem Robberse all in the mix, Lynn could be bought out in order to reallocate those dollars to other areas of need.

Manuel Margot, OF, Twins: $12MM club option ($2MM buyout)

The Twins acquired Margot in a trade that saw the Dodgers cover the majority of his salary. Minnesota is only on the hook for $4MM of what he’s owed in 2024.  The Rays, who initially traded him to the Dodgers, agreed to cover the $2MM buyout on Margot’s option as part of the trade. The Twins aren’t bringing Margot back at $12MM. He’s hit lefties quite well but has floundered against righties and is no longer the premium defender he once was. This is a lock to be declined.

Phil Maton, RHP, Mets: $7.75MM club option ($250K buyout)

The Rays signed Maton to a one-year, $6.5MM deal in mid-February. He struggled throughout his time with Tampa Bay, with uncharacteristically poor strikeout and walk rates (19.7% and 11.9%, respectively). The Rays traded Maton to the Mets in an early July swap that netted them a PTBNL. It was a salary-driven swap and it’s worked out wonderfully for the Mets. Maton has not only returned to form but enjoyed one of the best stretches of his career. In 22 2/3 innings, he touts a 2.38 ERA, 27% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate. The net $7.5MM decision could still prove steep, particularly for a team that typically lives in the top luxury tax bracket and would thus effectively be paying a 110% tax on next year’s $7.75MM salary. The Mets can afford it if they feel this version of Maton will sustain his output over a full season, but it’s a borderline call.

Shelby Miller, RHP, Tigers: $4.45MM club option ($250K buyout)

Miller’s one-year, $3.25MM deal with Detroit included a $4.25MM club option, but he’s boosted that option value by $200K thanks to escalators in his contract tied to his number of games pitched. With a 4.53 ERA, below-average strikeout rate and a notable susceptibility to home runs, Miller is far from a lock to see the option picked up. He’s doing his best to make the Tigers think about it, however, with a 1.15 ERA and 16-to-4 K/BB ratio in 15 2/3 innings across his past 14 appearances.

Yoan Moncada, 3B, White Sox: $25MM club option ($5MM buyout)

Moncada missed more than five months with an adductor injury and now has a .236/.292/.387 slash across his past 207 big league games. The White Sox will buy him out.

Ryan O’Hearn, 1B/OF, Orioles $8MM club option

O’Hearn’s big first half, which was fueled by an astonishing drop to a sub-10% strikeout rate, has given way to a pedestrian second half. Like many O’s hitters, he’s limping to the finish line. After hitting .274/.352/.452 through his first 364 plate appearances, O’Hearn has tanked with a .189/.240/.267 slash in his past 96 trips to the plate. That’s dropped his season line to a good-not-great .255/.328/.411 (111 wRC+). Baltimore has only given the lefty-swinging O’Hearn 39 plate appearances against left-handed pitching this year, and that $8MM salary is starting to feel like more than they’ll want to commit to a defensively limited platoon bat, particularly considering their crowded roster of position players.

Marcell Ozuna, DH, Braves: $16MM club option ($1MM buyout)

The 34-year-old Ozuna is in the midst of his worst month of the season, but even that means he’s merely been about league-average at the plate in September. He sports a mountainous .303/.380/.550 slash and 37 dingers on the season. It’s the best performance of his career outside the 60-game 2020 season (.338/.431/.636). Atlanta will pick this option up, even with Jorge Soler locked into the roster for two more seasons following his deadline acquisition.

Freddy Peralta, RHP, Brewers: $8MM club option ($1.5MM buyout)

Among the easiest calls in this slate of club options, Peralta currently has a 3.75 ERA in 30 starts and 163 1/3 innings of work. He’s set down nearly 27% of his opponents on strikes and issued walks at a 9.2% clip. If his steady mid-rotation work over the years wasn’t incentive enough to pick up this option — and, for the record, it very much is — the contract contains a second club option for the 2026 season, which is also valued at $8MM.

Jorge Polanco, 2B, Mariners: $12MM club option ($750K buyout)

Like so many of the Mariners’ recent acquisitions, things just haven’t clicked in Seattle for Polanco. The switch-hitter was steadily (and quietly) a big contributor in Minnesota from 2018-23, hitting .270/.338/.445 — including a 33-homer showing in his peak 2021 campaign. With the Mariners, he’s slashed just .203/.296/.342 on the season. To Polanco’s credit, he picked things up around the season’s midpoint and posted solid numbers in July and August, but he’s in a dreadful September swoon and appears destined to have this option bought out.

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Yankees: $17MM club option ($6MM buyout)

Rizzo missed 63 games with the 2023 Yankees and turned in a roughly league-average performance at the plate. He’s going to end up missing about 70 games this season, thanks to a broken forearm. At the moment, he owns a .215/.283/.325 batting line on the season — his worst output since his rookie season with the 2011 Padres. The 35-year-old’s option is likely to be declined.

Miguel Rojas, SS, Dodgers: $5MM club option ($1MM buyout)

A .297/.342/.421 batting line (115 wRC+) through 315 plate appearances, coupled with borderline elite defense at shortstop, for a net $4MM. Not much more needs to be said. This one is an easy call to exercise.

Max Stassi, C, White Sox: $7.5MM club option ($500K buyout)

Acquired in a salary-dump trade with the Braves over the winter, Stassi opened the season on the injured list with hip inflammation and eventually required surgery. He didn’t get into a game this year. This will be bought out.

Eugenio Suarez, 3B, D-backs: $15MM club option ($2MM buyout)

Earlier in the season, Suarez’s struggles at the plate led the D-backs to reduce his playing time in favor of rookie Blaze Alexander. Things can change in a hurry. Since July 1, Suarez boasts a gargantuan .321/.369/.663 batting line (177 wRC+). He’s ripped 22 homers and 18 doubles in 274 plate appearances during that stretch. Suarez is now two big flies shy of his fifth 30-homer season. There’s no reason to think the D-backs will want to move on, but even if they did, they could pick up this $15MM option and find trade interest. There’s very little chance this one is bought out.

Brent Suter, LHP, Reds: $3.5MM club option ($250K buyout)

Suter came to his hometown Reds as advertised: middling strikeout rate, strong command, gobs of weak contact. He’s piled up 63 2/3 innings of relief work and notched a terrific 3.19 ERA. At a net $3.25MM, there’s no reason to decline this option.

Luke Weaver, RHP, Yankees: $2.5MM club option

There was plenty of understandable eye-rolling from Yankees fans when Weaver, who posted an ERA north of 6.00 in 2020, 2022 and 2023 signed a major league deal over the winter. It’s proven to be one of the best buys of the offseason for any team, however. The former top prospect has been a revelation in Aaron Boone’s bullpen, tossing 78 2/3 innings of 3.09 ERA ball with a career-best 29.2% strikeout rate against an 8% walk rate. Weaver is throwing harder than ever and has leaned heavily on what was once a seldom-used cutter. This one is a slam dunk; there’s no way the Yankees would cut Weaver loose when he could be retained so affordably.

Devin Williams, RHP, Brewers: $10.5MM club option ($250K buyout)

Williams missed the first three-plus months of the season due to fractures in his lower back but has been excellent when healthy. In 17 1/3 frames, he’s put up a sparkling 1.53 ERA with a comical 43.8% strikeout rate against a 12.8% walk rate. The 29-year-old differs from the others on this list in that his club option season covers his final arbitration year. He agreed to the option year at a fixed price in order to avoid going to an arbitration hearing this past offseason. It’s at least possible that the Brewers could buy out the option and try to negotiate a slightly lower price. The $10.5MM price on his option only represents a 40% raise over this year’s salary, however. Even if the Brewers feel there’s a possibility for some marginal savings, they’d be so slight that it might not be worth the hassle and the potential for frustrating a key player like Williams.

Rule 5 Draft Update: September Edition

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A few months ago, MLBTR’s Steve Adams took an early look at the progress of last winter’s Rule 5 draftees. Seven of those players were on their teams’ active rosters, while two more were rehabbing injuries. Only one 2023 Rule 5 pick was returned to his original organization before Opening Day — and he went on to be the headlining piece in a key deadline trade. With most of the season in the books, let’s take a look at their performances in a larger sample.

A quick refresh for those unfamiliar with the process: the Rule 5 draft is a means of getting MLB opportunities to players who might be blocked with their current organization. Teams can draft certain players who are left off their original club’s 40-man roster. The drafting team needs to keep that player on the MLB roster or injured list for their entire first season. If they do so, they’d gain the player’s contractual rights permanently.

If the drafting team decides not to carry the player on the roster at any point during his rookie year, they need to place him on waivers. If he goes unclaimed, the player is offered back to his original organization — which does not need to carry him on either the MLB or 40-man rosters to take him back. A team can keep an injured Rule 5 pick on the major league IL, but they’d eventually need to carry him on the active roster for 90 days. If the player misses the entire season, the Rule 5 restriction carries over to the following year.

We’re down to the final two weeks of the regular season, so it’s safe to presume the six players who have held an active roster spot will survive the year. One player has spent the entire season on the injured list, so his Rule 5 status will roll over into next season if he sticks on the 40-man over the winter. Two others were returned earlier in the summer.

On a Major League Roster

Mitch Spence, RHP, Athletics (selected from Yankees)

The A’s had MLB’s worst record in 2023. That gave them the first pick in the Rule 5 draft. They used it on Spence, who had turned in a 4.47 ERA across 163 Triple-A innings in the Yankees’ system. New York’s 10th-round pick in 2019 has been a solid contributor on a more competitive Oakland pitching staff.

Spence opened the year in the bullpen. He worked 25 1/3 innings over his first 11 appearances, pitching to a 4.26 earned run average behind a decent 22.2% strikeout rate and huge ground-ball numbers (54.4%). The A’s moved Spence into their rotation in the middle of May. He has been similarly effective as a starter. Spence has worked to a 4.34 ERA over 21 starts, which is tied for the second-most on the team. His strikeout and grounder rates have each dropped a few points, but he’s still getting worm burners at a solid 48.5% clip. Spence doesn’t issue many free passes and has looked the part of a durable fourth/fifth starter. That’d be a fantastic outcome for a Rule 5 pick. He should at least get to compete for a season-opening rotation job next spring.

Anthony Molina, RHP, Rockies (selected from Rays)

Molina, 22, has stuck with a rebuilding Colorado team despite a rough debut season. He’s allowing more than six earned runs per nine through 56 innings out of the bullpen. The Venezuelan-born righty has fanned 15% of opposing hitters with a meager 7.2% swinging strike percentage. While pitching in Coors Field should be a challenge for any rookie, Molina has actually fared much worse away from altitude. He carries a 3.13 ERA in 31 2/3 home innings against a ghastly 11.10 mark over 24 1/3 frames on the road. Molina’s strikeout and walk profile isn’t good no matter where he has pitched, but he’s done a much better job keeping the ball on the ground in Denver.

Tough results aside, the Rox don’t have a pressing need to push Molina off the roster. Their place in the standings and overall lack of bullpen talent affords them rope to continue giving him a chance to develop. He throws reasonably hard (94.7 MPH average fastball speed) and managed decent results as a starting pitcher in the upper minors last year.

Nasim Nuñez, SS, Nationals (selected from Marlins)

A glove-first middle infielder, Nuñez has been the 26th man in Washington all season. Manager Dave Martinez has used him primarily as a late-game substitute. Nuñez has made 13 starts at shortstop and 41 appearances overall. He has 10 hits (nine singles and a double) in 51 plate appearances with eight walks and ten strikeouts. Nuñez has stolen six bases and laid down four sacrifice bunts. There’s minimal offensive upside but he has probably done enough to stick on the 40-man roster as a depth infielder.

Ryan Fernandez, RHP, Cardinals (selected from Red Sox)

Fernandez has had one of the better debut campaign in this year’s class. The 26-year-old righty carries a 3.13 ERA over 63 1/3 innings out of the St. Louis bullpen. Fernandez is narrowly behind Andrew Kittredge for the team lead in relief innings. He has quickly pitched his way into Oli Marmol’s circle of trust. Fernandez is fourth on the team — behind closer Ryan Helsley, Kittredge, and JoJo Romero — in average leverage index (measuring how impactful the situation is when a pitcher enters the game) in the second half.

It hasn’t been completely smooth sailing. Fernandez’s command has come and gone, and he had an atrocious August. He’s capable of missing bats and handling hitters from both sides of the plate, though, and he has posted a nice rebound this month. Even if his command could push him into a sixth or seventh inning role, this was a good pick.

Justin Slaten, RHP, Red Sox (selected from Rangers via trade with Mets)

Losing Fernandez might’ve stung the Red Sox more had they not found a reliever who has been even better. Slaten owns a 3.16 earned run average through 51 1/3 innings with the peripherals to match. The New Mexico product has fanned more than a quarter of batters faced against a tidy 4.4% walk rate. He’s getting swinging strikes at a massive 14.4% clip while leading opponents to chase more than 35% of pitches outside the strike zone.

Aside from a six-week injured list stint because of elbow inflammation, Slaten couldn’t have made a much better first impression. He already looks the part of a late-game weapon and has been used as such by Alex Cora. With Kenley Jansen headed to free agency, Slaten could battle Liam Hendriks for the closer role next season. The Sox had one of the best Rule 5 picks in recent history when they snagged Garrett Whitlock a few years ago. It’s a new front office, but they look like they’ve had a similarly valuable hit on Slaten.

Currently On Major League Injured List

Stephen Kolek, RHP, Padres (selected from Mariners)

Kolek has occupied a low-leverage relief role for San Diego skipper Mike Shildt. The 27-year-old righty has allowed a 5.21 ERA across 46 2/3 innings. He’s getting ground-balls at a massive 55.9% clip but has a well below-average 18.5% strikeout rate. Kolek has done a nice job staying off barrels but hasn’t shown the bat-missing ability to push his way up the bullpen depth chart.

The Padres placed Kolek on the injured list just after the deadline due to elbow tendinitis. They moved him to the 60-day IL at the start of September. He’s eligible to return for San Diego’s playoff run, but his season could be over. Kolek surpassed 90 days on the active roster before the injury, so he won’t be subject to any restrictions next year.

Carson Coleman, RHP, Rangers (selected from Yankees)

Coleman underwent Tommy John surgery while he was a member of the Yankees system early in 2023. Texas had hoped he’d return in the middle of the season, but GM Chris Young announced in May that wouldn’t happen. He has spent the whole season on the 60-day IL. Texas would need to put Coleman back on the 40-man roster at the start of the offseason. If they carry him all winter, he’ll need to spend at least 90 days on the active roster whenever he’s healthy.

Returned to Original Organization

Matt Sauer, RHP, Royals (returned to Yankees)

Yankees minor leaguers went first and second in the draft. While Spence stuck around, the No. 2 pick didn’t last long in Kansas City. Sauer made the Opening Day roster and pitched 14 times in low-leverage relief. Opponents tagged him for 14 runs on 23 hits and 11 walks over 16 1/3 innings. The Royals couldn’t afford to stash him as a development flier in the bullpen, particularly once it became clear they had a real chance to make the playoffs.

Kansas City returned Sauer to the Yankees in late May. New York initially assigned him to Triple-A, but he was blitzed for 15 runs over just 8 1/3 innings in 10 appearances. New York demoted him to Double-A Somerset in early July. Sauer has found his footing there, pitching to a 2.63 ERA with 21 strikeouts and three walks over 17 outings. He’d qualify for minor league free agency this offseason if the Yanks don’t put him on the 40-man roster.

Shane Drohan, LHP, White Sox (returned to Red Sox)

Drohan never pitched in the majors with the White Sox. The southpaw underwent a nerve decompression surgery in his throwing shoulder in February. He began the season on the 60-day injured list. Drohan was hit hard in a limited sample after beginning a rehab assignment, so Chicago decided not to activate him to the MLB roster. They returned him to Boston in June. Drohan made two Triple-A starts, spent some time on the development list, and is now back on the IL with continued shoulder issues. It’s unfortunate that he wasn’t healthy enough to get a legitimate MLB opportunity, but Drohan at least collected major league pay and service time for a couple months while on Chicago’s injured list.

Deyvison De Los Santos, 1B/3B, Guardians (returned to Diamondbacks)

De Los Santos was a surprising pick, as the power-hitting infielder was coming off a mediocre season (.254/.297/.431) in Double-A. He didn’t hit at all in Spring Training and Cleveland returned him to the Diamondbacks before Opening Day. He had a monster first half for the Snakes, blasting 28 home runs in fewer than 400 plate appearances between the top two minor league levels. Within a few months, De Los Santos went from unsuccessful Rule 5 pick to the centerpiece of the Marlins’ trade package for controllable high-leverage reliever A.J. Puk.

He has cooled off substantially since the deal. De Los Santos has another 11 homers in 44 games with Miami’s Triple-A affiliate, but he’s striking out a lot and getting on base at a meager .283 clip. It’s a difficult profile to pull off — particularly since he’s not considered a strong defender who might end up at first base — but the Marlins are likely to put him on the 40-man roster rather than expose him to the Rule 5 for a second straight year.

Poll: Paul Goldschmidt And The Qualifying Offer

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Heading into the 2024 season, the main question surrounding Paul Goldschmidt was one of whether the Cardinals would be able to get an extension done. Interest in a new contract for Goldschmidt was reported as far back as December, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said in January that extension talks could be tabled until early in the season. At the time, Goldschmidt was fresh off a .268/.363/.447 batting line in 154 games. That didn’t come close to his 2022 NL MVP season (.317/.404/.578, 35 homers) — but it was still well north of the league average and made Goldschmidt one of the more productive first basemen in the game.

Fast forward a few months, and the narrative has changed dramatically. Goldschmidt got out to the worst start of his career and seemed wholly unable to recover. He posted below-average offensive numbers in April, May and June, slashing a .225/.294/.361 in 349 plate appearances over that stretch. By measure of wRC+, the perennially excellent Goldschmidt had been 15% worse than an average hitter at the plate.

Even if one looked at the dip from his 2022 production to his 2023 output as the potential beginning of a decline, a drop-off of this magnitude was nonetheless a genuine surprise. Goldschmidt hadn’t simply had some poor luck on balls in play; his strikeout rate spiked to a career-worst 28.7%. His 8.3% walk rate was nowhere near his career mark. Goldschmidt was still hitting the ball hard, but his contact was less frequent and much of that hard contact was coming in the form of hard grounders rather than well-struck liners and flies. Goldschmidt’s 43% ground-ball rate in the season’s first three months was his highest since 2017.

Since that point, things have begun to turn around. Goldschmidt had a modestly productive showing in July (107 wRC+) and has seen his bat truly take off from August onward. He’s hitting .275/.315/.483 since the calendar flipped to July — including a .286/.338/.493 slash since Aug. 1. Again, this isn’t a simple change in fortune on balls in play. Goldschmidt’s 28% strikeout rate from the season’s first three months is down to 23.5% since July 1 — and just 21% since Aug. 1.

Despite that substantial dip in strikeouts, Goldschmidt hasn’t necessarily become more selective at the plate. He’s still not walking nearly as often as he used to — 5.5% since July 1 — nor is he chasing off the plate any less than he did in the season’s first three months. What he has done, however, is become much more aggressive on pitches within the strike zone. Goldschmidt’s typically patient approach led him to swing at just 61.4% of pitches in the strike zone from Opening Day through the end of June. Since then, he’s offered at 68.1% of such pitches. His overall swing rate through three months was at 46.2%, but he’s up to 49.4% in the three months since.

Goldschmidt has had 50 plate appearances end on one pitch this season. He’s hitting .347 and slugging .694 on those pitches. Of those 50, 26 came in the season’s first three months. About 7.4% of his plate appearances lasted one pitch. Since July 1, nearly 10% of his plate appearances have been of the one-pitch variety. It’s not a huge difference, but it lends credence to the fact that Goldschmidt has been more aggressive and been better off for it.

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Goldschmidt (pardon the cliche). His first half looked like that of a player on the decline — mounting strikeouts, lesser contact, and an across-the-board deterioration in his results. The past two-plus months, however, tell another story. Goldschmidt may not be the MVP-level hitter he was just two seasons ago, but he’s been clearly above-average since July, including an outrageous .394/.429/.636 slash in his past 70 plate appearances. His walks are down and may not recover if he maintains his more aggressive approach, but he’s hitting for average and power alike. If Goldschmidt had flipped his two halves, starting this hot and then fading toward league-average, his down season likely wouldn’t have garnered much attention.

As it stands, league-average is precisely where Goldschmidt is at. His .246/.303/.414 batting line comes out to an even 100 wRC+. His OPS+ (98) is only 2% worse than average. An average-hitting first baseman isn’t generally a QO candidate, but if the Cardinals believe Goldschmidt can sustain his late surge, then there’s good reason to make an offer. Even if he accepts, a $21.2MM salary for a player whom they believe can continue in the vicinity of a .275/.315/.483 pace would be defensible. And if he walks, the Cards would of course be entitled to draft compensation. On the flip side, if Goldschmidt were to accept and revert to his first-half form, it’d be a clear misstep that sets the franchise back in 2025 as they look to return to contending.

It all comes down to how much the Cardinals believe in Goldschmidt’s second-half renaissance and how much they’re willing to risk in the name of bolstering their 2025 draft pool. Six months ago, Goldschmidt would’ve seemed like a no-brainer QO recipient. Three months ago, the decision would’ve seemed like a no-brainer — for the opposite reason. Now, the Cardinals will fall somewhere in the middle. Let’s open this up for a poll:

Should the Cardinals give Paul Goldschmidt a qualifying offer?
No 60.65% (4,439 votes)
Yes 39.35% (2,880 votes)
Total Votes: 7,319

Nathan Eovaldi Approaching Vesting Player Option Threshold

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During the 2022-23 offseason, then-free-agent righty Nathan Eovaldi inked a two-year, $34MM contract with the Rangers. The contract contained a provision for a vesting player option that would give Eovaldi say over his fate for the 2025 season, provided he stayed largely healthy over the course of the contract’s first two seasons. With a combined 300 innings pitched between 2023-24, Eovaldi gains a player option valued at $20MM for the 2025 campaign. The veteran right-hander’s most recent start brought him to 296 innings between the two seasons combined. He’ll trigger the vesting player option if he completes at least four innings in his next start, which is slated to come tomorrow when the Rangers host the Blue Jays. All but two of Eovaldi’s 26 starts this year have lasted at least four innings.

There’s a strong likelihood that Eovaldi will unlock that option tomorrow versus Toronto. It should be emphasized that he’s not locking himself into that $20MM salary for the 2025 season, however, but rather gaining the choice to exercise that $20MM option or turn it down in favor of a return to the open market. There’s perhaps some extra incentive for Eovaldi to consider the player option, as a Texas native — he was born and raised in the Houston area — but he should also be able to top that $20MM guarantee in free agency.

Eovaldi, 35 in September, has been a clearly above-average starter in each of his two seasons in Texas. He’s started a combined 51 games and pitched to a 3.65 ERA across his 296 frames with the Rangers, fanning 23.7% of his opponents against a 7% walk rate. Both marks are better than the league average. He’s also upped his ground-ball rate considerably thanks to an uptick in his splitter usage. A hearty 49.8% of the batted balls against Eovaldi have been grounders; he posted a 43.9% grounder rate in his final two seasons with the Red Sox from 2021-22.

Barring a late injury that throws his 2025 outlook into question, there’s a good case to decline that $20MM player option. Recent examples of multi-year free-agent deals for pitchers beginning in their age-35 season aren’t exactly plentiful, as can be seen in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, but there are a few such cases that underscore the earning power he’ll have.

Back in the 2018-19 offseason, for instance, both J.A. Happ ($34MM) and Charlie Morton ($30MM) inked two-year deal in free agency. Happ had nearly identical numbers in his two prior seasons to those of Eovaldi at present, and he was a year older at the time (to say nothing of the fact that the price of pitching has increased since 2018). Eovaldi also has a steadier track record than he had at the time. Morton, meanwhile, had only just broken out as a high-end starter in his prior two-year run with the Astros — doing so with numbers that resemble Eovaldi’s current Rangers run. Kenta Maeda signed for two years and $24MM with the Tigers just last offseason and did as a 36-year-old coming off a lesser platform showing. Eovaldi clearly has greater earning power than Maeda had.

Generally speaking, few pitchers remain this effective into their mid-30s and return to the market at this time. Many top-tier starters ink contracts of five, six or seven years in length when they reach free agency around age 30 or 31. “Second-tier” free agent starters, as Eovaldi arguably was in his past couple trips to the market, often suffer injuries or begin to lose effectiveness as Father Time chases them down. However, Eovaldi remains a clear playoff-caliber starter, averaging 95.5 mph on his heater and logging better-than-average strikeout, walk and grounder rates while averaging nearly six innings per start.

We’ve certainly seen pitchers in their age-35 seasons or older command contracts worth $20MM or more in terms of annual value, but they’re typically on one-year deals or the type of anomalous contracts reserved for the sport’s elite arms. Justin Verlander has signed extensions and free-agent deals north of this rate in the latter stages of his career, but he’s a future Hall of Famer and three-time Cy Young winner. Max Scherzer’s record-setting three-year, $130MM deal spanned his age-37 through age-39 seasons, but like Verlander he’s a Cooperstown-bound, multi-time Cy Young winner. Eovaldi’s teammate Jacob deGrom signed the most eye-opening of these deals when he landed five years and $185MM from the Rangers, but a healthy deGrom is arguably the best pitcher on the planet.

Eovaldi isn’t going to command that type of premium annual value, but he has a clear case for another multi-year deal and could take aim at a contract paying him an annual salary in the $20MM vicinity (give or take a couple million). He’s an unusual case when it comes to getting a third bite at the free-agent apple in his mid-30s at a time when he hasn’t lost much, if any, of his effectiveness. Recent mid-rotation starters who could return to the market in their own mid-30s (e.g. Jameson Taillon, Michael Wacha, Marcus Stroman, Jon Gray) will surely be watching closely to see how the market treats Eovaldi this offseason.

The Brewers’ Rotation Is Holding Up

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The Brewers have the best run differential in MLB. Milwaukee has outscored its opponents by 139 runs, putting them 14 runs clear of the second-place Yankees’ +125 gap. Milwaukee is coasting to another division title and sit half a game behind the Phillies for the #2 seed in the National League, which would give them a first-round bye in the postseason.

It’s not a shock that the Brewers are good. They’ve proven time and again they’re capable of outperforming a middling payroll to compete for a playoff spot. Yet few would’ve predicted they’d be this good: 24 games over .500 with the largest division lead in baseball. Milwaukee’s previous success was built largely around the three-headed rotation monster of Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff. Between the Burnes trade and Woodruff’s shoulder injury, they’ve been forced to make do with a far less established rotation. Milwaukee’s rotation might not have the firepower it once did, yet it has held all the same.

Brewers starters are 12th in the majors with a 3.92 earned run average. That’s already an achievement considering the challenges of pitching at Miller Park, and they’ve been even better lately. Since the trade deadline, only the Astros and Tigers have a lower rotation ERA than Milwaukee does. Detroit’s mark is skewed by frequent use of openers; Tiger “starters” have an MLB-low 112 1/3 innings since the end of July. Milwaukee’s starters have tied for the third-most innings over that stretch (174 2/3), narrowly behind Houston and the Mets. For the past month and change, the Astros and Brewers have had the most valuable rotations in the league.

Not coincidentally, they were two of the league’s best teams last month. While Houston’s rotation turnaround has been a big story in its own right, Milwaukee’s rotation performance is probably more surprising. The Brewers signed Jakob Junis to take a season-opening rotation spot; he made one start, got hurt, and was eventually moved at the deadline. Wade Miley and Robert Gasser each blew out early in the season. Joe Ross and DL Hall each spent multiple months on the injured list.

The Brewers have given multiple starts to 13 different pitchers this year (15 if one includes the opener appearances by Jared Koenig and Rob Zastryzny). They’ve only had three pitchers top 50 innings working from the rotation in a Milwaukee uniform. Still, between a pair of unexpected contributors and two buy-low deadline pickups, they’re trending towards October with a settled starting five.

Peralta has headlined the group. He’s the team leader in starts (28) and innings (153 2/3). Peralta carries a 3.75 ERA behind a strong 27.3% strikeout rate. While he can battle the home run ball at times, Peralta is one of the better pitchers in the league. He was supposed to deliver at the front of the rotation, and he has.

The pitchers coming after Peralta entered the year with a lot less fanfare. Colin Rea logged 124 2/3 innings over 26 appearances a year ago. He posted a 4.55 ERA with middling peripherals. When Milwaukee brought him back on a $4.5MM deal on November 2, the most notable aspect of the deal seemed to be its timing — a few days before the official opening of free agency. Rea secured a spot in the Opening Day rotation, likely as the #5 arm.

Through four months, Rea ranks narrowly behind Peralta for second on the team in innings. He has tossed a career-high 146 frames with a solid 3.70 ERA. His 8% swinging strike rate and 19.4% strikeout percentage still suggest he’s more of a back-end arm, but Rea has thus far avoided any regression in terms of run prevention. He has an ERA between 3.25 and 4.22 in every month of the season, welcome consistency for a rotation that has dealt with significant injuries.

Rea has been a surprisingly key contributor, though he at least started the year on the MLB roster. That wasn’t the case for Tobias Myers, who has gone from minor league signee to #3 starter. The 26-year-old righty was a prospect of some regard early in his career, performing well through Double-A. Cleveland acquired Myers in a regrettable trade that sent future top prospect Junior Caminero to the Rays. Triple-A hitters obliterated him in 2022, leading multiple teams to cut him loose without giving him a look at the big league level.

Myers signed a minor league deal with Milwaukee going into 2023. He spent most of the season in Double-A, where he racked up huge strikeout totals against generally younger opposition. Myers never got himself back on the prospect radar, but he earned a look from the Brewers in mid-April when the rotation was floundering.

Shuttled on and off the active roster through the end of May, Myers had a 5.40 ERA in seven appearances. That’s the kind of production expected from a minor league signee pressed into action. As recently as a few months ago, it wasn’t clear if the Brewers would keep him on the roster all season. Gasser’s injury in early June gave Myers another shot. He has seized it.

Over his past 15 starts, the rookie owns a 2.27 ERA while working nearly six innings per appearance. He has a roughly average 21.1% strikeout rate and is limiting walks to a 6.3% clip. Myers has unquestionably been aided by a meager .264 average on balls in play. He doesn’t miss enough bats to be an ace. Yet even with some level of inevitable regression, Myers looks like a polished strike-thrower who fits in the middle of a rotation. Were it not for an absolutely loaded field in the National League this year, Myers might have gotten some Rookie of the Year attention.

Effective as Rea and Myers had been early in the summer, Milwaukee’s front office understandably viewed the rotation as their priority at the deadline. Myers was early into what has become a three-month stretch of excellent play. Rea’s workload was a question mark. Milwaukee made one of the first pickups of note early in July, bringing in Aaron Civale from the Rays. The night before the deadline, they flipped Junis and young outfielder Joey Wiemer (who’d been mostly squeezed out with the Brewers) to the Reds for Frankie Montas.

Both acquisitions were rebound hopefuls. Civale and Montas had each looked like upper mid-rotation arms at their best, but they’d fallen on harder times. Both pitchers had an ERA narrowly above 5.00 with their previous teams. They’re each allowing fewer than four earned runs per nine in Milwaukee. Civale has a 3.72 mark across 48 1/3 innings as a Brewer. Montas carries a 3.82 ERA in 33 frames following the trade.

Civale’s underlying performance isn’t dramatically different from where it’d been in Tampa Bay. His strikeout and walk profile has gone in the wrong direction. He’s getting more ground-balls with the Brew Crew — somewhat diminishing the home run issues that really plagued him with the Rays — but he’s giving up more contact than ever before. As with Rea and Myers, the change is largely about his ball in play results. Opponents hit .312 on balls in play off Civale with the Rays; that’s down to .257 since the trade.

Montas has shown more obvious signs of improvement. His strikeout rate with the Reds sat a below-average 19%. It’s up to 22.7% in his brief stint in Milwaukee. His fastball velocity has climbed from the 94-95 range to sit more comfortably above 96 MPH this month. Montas’ velocity was steadily building throughout the year in Cincinnati, so perhaps he’d have found this level regardless of where he was traded. Even if that’s the case, the Brewers deserve credit for identifying him as a buy-low target.

All of a sudden, manager Pat Murphy has a number of options he can choose from in constructing a playoff rotation. Milwaukee is going to win the NL Central. They’ll at least play in a three-game Wild Card set. Winning that (or tracking down one of the Dodgers or Phillies for a bye) would guarantee at least a five-game Division Series.

Peralta is the obvious call to pitch the first game. Myers’ recent form probably gives him a leg up as a Game 2 starter, though that could be determined by how well he finishes the regular season. Montas may not be all the way back to the peak he showed with the A’s, but he’s pitching well enough to be a fine choice for either Game 2 or 3. That’d likely leave Murphy to choose between Civale and Rea for a potential fourth game, perhaps in tandem with a multi-inning relief appearance from Hall.

It still may not be an elite starting staff, but it’s hardly a liability. A shorter series will allow Murphy to leverage his excellent relief group more heavily. Late in close games, the scales should tip in Milwaukee’s favor. The rotation now looks strong enough to get them there.

Second-Half Snell Is Doing It Again

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Over the course of any given calendar year, Major League Baseball is full of oddities. The Dodgers gave the largest pitching contract ever to a starting pitcher who'd never pitched in the majors. The Marlins waved the white flag on their season after about five weeks. Rich Hill signed his eighth career free agent deal with the Red Sox. Heck, Danny Jansen played in the same game for two different teams. All that said, Blake Snell has had one of the strangest calendar years of any player in the game.

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How To Acquire Players After The MLB Trade Deadline

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Not long ago, every August at MLBTR kicked off by reminding longtime MLB fans (or explaining to new fans) how the dizzying rules regarding August trade waivers worked. It was a convoluted process — one that saw nearly every player in the league placed on revocable trade waivers at some point (heavy emphasis on “revocable”) — but one that front offices increasingly used as creative means to pull off significant acquisitions after the supposed “deadline.”

In reality, under the old rules, the first “trade deadline” was never the actual deadline — it just wasn’t as catchy to use the full term, “non-waiver trade deadline.” As time progressed, the month of August increasingly served as a means of swapping out higher-priced talents in waiver trades that were still quite noteworthy. If you’re seeing Justin Verlander, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Donaldson and others change hands in late August, just before the deadline for postseason eligibility — was the non-waiver deadline really a trade “deadline” at all? Not so much.

Back in 2019, Major League Baseball opted to quash the ever-growing process of August roster reconstruction. The league put an end to waiver trades that often served as a means of teams hitting the “eject” button on notable contracts and saw larger-payroll clubs take on those deals simply because they possessed the financial wherewithal to do so. MLB implemented a more concrete “true” trade deadline that prohibited players on Major League contracts — or any who had previously been on Major League contracts earlier in the season (i.e. since-outrighted players) — from being traded after the deadline.

Does that mean teams can no longer acquire new players or address injuries as they arise? No, but their avenues to do so are substantially narrower. Here’s a look at how Major League front offices can still augment their roster now that the “true” trade deadline has passed:

1. Trades!

Wait, what? I thought we just–

Yes, we did. But it turns out that the “true” trade deadline is really only the “true” trade deadline for Major League players! Fun how that works, right? In all likelihood, you’ll still see several players change hands this month, they just won’t be very exciting. But, veterans who’ve been playing the entire season on a minor league contract and haven’t at any point been added to the 40-man roster or been on the Major League injured list are still fair game to be traded.

Will you see any huge, blockbuster names flipped? Of course not — but there are still some recognizable names eligible to be traded. Among the position players in Triple-A who have been enjoying above-average production are Tim Locastro (Padres), Jake Marisnick (Angels), Mike Brosseau (Mets), Yuli Gurriel (Braves), Rylan Bannon (Twins), Nick Solak (Mariners), and Jerar Encarnacion (Giants)– just to name a few.

There are several pitchers enjoying nice years in generally hitter-friendly Triple-A environs as well. Ken Giles (Braves), Chasen Shreve (Yankees), Kyle Barraclough (Rangers), Anthony Gose (Guardians) and Adam Plutko (Twins) all have ERAs of 4.40 or lower over notable samples of innings. It’s obviously not a star-studded collection of talent, but it’s feasible enough that a team could get some big league value from someone in this group (or from one of the numerous other former big leaguers who has yet to appear on a 40-man roster).

Those are just some of the former big leaguers who are eligible to be traded, so long as any player(s) going back the other way have also not been on a 40-man roster or Major League injured list. It’s common for August deals to be simple cash swaps, as well.

There weren’t many post-deadline swaps in 2023. The White Sox landed a pair of minor leaguers from the Dodgers in exchange for international bonus allotments. The Brewers traded Tyler Naquin to the White Sox for cash, but he never got a big league look. The A’s and Giants swapped outfielder Trenton Brooks and lefty Sean Newcomb, both of whom played in the majors with their new club. Oakland even signed Newcomb to a contract for the 2024 season, though injuries limited him to 10 innings before he was released in June. In 2022, the Giants acquired Lewis Brinson for cash and gave him a look down the stretch.

Just to speculate a bit — and we haven’t really seen this in the past, but it’s technically possible  — teams technically can engineer minor league trades, so long as the players involved have not been on the 40-man roster at any point in a given season. It’s doubtful we’ll see any top prospects change hands in this regard, but it’s not expressly forbidden, either.

And, just to rain on your parade, no — teams cannot game the system using players to be named later. The rules pertaining to the “true” trade deadline made sure to include the following language:

“The Commissioner’s Office will prohibit any transaction (or series of transactions) that, in the judgment of the Commissioner’s Office, appears (or appear) designed to circumvent the prohibitions of Rule 9(b).”

Nice try, folks, but don’t get your hopes up.

Just remember, anyone acquired after Aug. 31 isn’t postseason-eligible with his new club, so minor swaps of any relative note will likely take place before the calendar flips to September.

It won’t lead to any exciting trades, but we’ll likely still see some trades this month. You’ll just have to wait until the offseason for the chatter on Garrett Crochet, Brent Rooker, Mason Miller, Luis Robert Jr., Jesus Luzardo and others to pick back up in earnest.

2. Outright and Release Waivers

Revocable trade waivers are no longer a thing, but regular old outright waivers and release waivers are alive and well. Any time a player is designated for assignment now, the team’s only recourse will be to place him on outright waivers or release waivers. At that point, the other 29 teams will have the opportunity to claim that player … and the entirety of his remaining contract. Of course, a team doesn’t need to announce a DFA or even announce that a player has been put on waivers. It’s fairly common for a team to just announce that a player cleared waivers and was outrighted to a minor league affiliate without ever publicly declaring a DFA.

An important reminder on waivers now that it’s the primary means of acquiring talent from another organization: waiver priority is determined based on overall record (worst record to best record) and, unlike the now-retired “revocable trade waivers,” is not league-specific. If the White Sox want righty Darius Vines or lefty Cole Irvin — designated for assignment by the Braves and Orioles, respectively, prior to the deadline — they’ll have first crack. Next up would be the Rockies, Marlins, A’s, etc. — all based on the reserve order of the MLB-wide standings at the time (which is to say… the 27-83 White Sox are going to have first dibs all month long).

Teams who didn’t find sufficient interest in veteran players prior to the trade deadline and thus held onto them could eventually place those players on outright waivers in August, hoping another club will claim said player and simply spare the waiving team some cash. This is likelier to happen late in the month — when there’s less cash owed on those veteran contracts.

Last year, we saw the Angels undergo a mass sell-off in hopes of dipping under the luxury tax. The Halos placed more than a quarter of their roster on waivers, with Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Matt Moore, Randal Grichuk, C.J. Cron, Hunter Renfroe, Dominic Leone and Tyler Anderson all hitting waivers. Giolito, Lopez, Moore, Renfroe and Leone were all claimed by new teams. That’s an extreme example, but it’s feasible that a current fringe contender who’s not far over the luxury tax (or who simply wants to save some money) could do so again late this month. Again, speculatively speaking, the Rangers or Giants are “only” about $13MM over the luxury threshold and could try to dip underneath if they fade in the standings.

As with any minor league trades, players claimed off waivers will only be postseason-eligible with their new club if claimed before 11:59pm ET on Aug. 31.

3. Sign Free Agents

Same as ever. Anyone who gets released or rejects an outright assignment in favor of free agency will be able to sign with a new team and, so long as the deal is wrapped up prior to Sept. 1, they’ll be postseason-eligible with a new team. It’s certainly feasible that a once-productive veteran enjoys a hot streak with a new club or fills a useful part-time role.

There’s also one notable veteran name who’s likely to sign and could make an impact with a postseason club. Ageless Rich Hill opted not to sign this past offseason despite receiving offers, instead preferring to wait until the latter portion of the season. Hill has spoken about the choice in the past, suggesting that now in his mid-40s, this offers him the best chance to stay healthy and productive. It also affords him more time with his family early in the year and, importantly, the opportunity to choose a clear postseason contender when he selects his new team. Hill is throwing off a mound and has reportedly had some interest from the Dodgers and Yankees.

At this point, Hill isn’t likely to be a major difference-maker, but he could eat innings at the back of an injury-depleted rotation. He posted a 5.41 ERA in 146 1/3 MLB frames last year, with much of the damage coming against him in the final three months of the season. Hill posted a 4.23 ERA through his first 13 starts in Pittsburgh last season, with fielding-independent marks that largely matched that number. It’s anyone’s guess whether he can replicate that production in ’24, but the cost to find out will be relatively minimal.

The same postseason eligibility date applies to incoming free agents as well.

4. Scour the Independent Leagues

Roll your eyes all you want, but the Atlantic League, Frontier League and American Association (among other indie circuits) are all teeming with former big leaguers. Need a speedy fourth outfielder who can provide some late-game defense and baserunning during September roster expansion? A platoon bat off the bench? An extra southpaw to stash in the bullpen? There will be experienced names to consider.

Look up and down the Atlantic League leaderboards and you’ll find former big leaguers like Frank Schwindel (.332/.405/.582, 15 homers), Mike Montgomery (71 innings, 4.31 ERA) and plenty of others. It’s unlikely anyone finds a true impact player on the indie scene, but then again, people cracked jokes when the 2015 Red Sox signed the aforementioned Hill away from the Long Island Ducks as a 35-year-old. He’s earned nearly $80MM and tossed more than 900 innings in the majors since joining the Red Sox under similar circumstances to the ones described here.

5. Look to Foreign Leagues

We don’t often see players return from the KBO, NPB or CPBL to sign with big league clubs midseason, but there’s precedent for it happening. There are also quite a few former big leaguers playing down in the Mexican League, creating another area for front offices to scout as they mine for depth options. Interest won’t be limited solely to former big leaguers, either. In 2022, the Mariners signed lefty Brennan Bernardino after a strong nine-start run in Mexico, watched him dominate through 12 2/3 innings in Triple-A Tacoma, and selected him to the Major League roster by the end of July. He made his MLB debut with Seattle in ’22, was claimed off waivers by he Red Sox earlier in ’23, and now carries a combined 3.13 ERA in 86 1/3 innings for the Red Sox in the 2023-24 seasons. You never know!

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