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MLBTR Poll: Who’s The NL Central Favorite?

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With the exception of the Reds, who have made several notable moves, this hasn’t been an action-packed offseason in the National League Central. Cincinnati was a fourth-place team a season ago and is currently mired in a six-year playoff drought, but the club has made an earnest attempt to transform itself into a playoff contender since the 2019 campaign concluded. Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama have all come aboard in free agency to bolster the Reds’ position player group. Meanwhile, a rotation that was already strong in 2019 has tacked on Wade Miley to complement Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani, and the bullpen has pulled in Pedro Strop.

The Reds only won 75 games last year, but at last check, the majority of MLBTR voters expect them to amass 80-some victories this season. In the NL Central, where there doesn’t appear to be a dominant team, it may only take 80-plus wins to claim the division. The Cardinals’ 91 led the way last year, but they’ve made no truly headline-grabbing acquisitions in recent months, they’ve lost outfielder Marcell Ozuna to the Braves and now one of their most reliable starters, Miles Mikolas, is dealing with arm troubles early in the spring.

Along with the Cards, the 2019 Central boasted two other plus-.500 teams – the Brewers (89 wins) and the Cubs (84). It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either team contend for the playoffs again this year, but it’s difficult to argue that they’ve gotten better since last season. The Brewers have made quite a few changes, especially in the infield (Brock Holt’s their latest pickup), but they also lost two of their best position players in Moustakas and catcher Yasmani Grandal earlier in free agency.

The Cubs, meantime, have been stunningly quiet for a deep-pocketed team that collapsed down the stretch in 2019. Seismic changes were expected after they laid an egg last year, and maybe they’ll still come (a Kris Bryant trade seems like the most realistic way to shake things up). For now, though, their roster looks a lot like the 2019 edition. There’s still plenty of talent on hand, but there’s no more Castellanos, who emerged as one of the Cubs’ main threats at the plate after they acquired him from the Tigers prior to last July’s trade deadline.

Aside from the Pirates, who are more likely to compete for the No. 1 pick than a playoff berth this year (and whom we’ll leave out of this poll), it wouldn’t seem unrealistic to pick any of the NL Central’s teams to win the division. This year’s PECOTA projections (via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) have the Reds grabbing the division with 86 wins and the Cubs totaling 85 en route to a wild-card spot. The system gives the Reds 66.2 percent preseason playoff odds, the Cubs 51.5 percent, the Cardinals 24.4 percent and the Brewers 20.3. We still have several weeks to go before the season opens, but as of now, which of those clubs do you think will finish on top?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Stripping The Astros’ 2017 Title

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It doesn’t take a die-hard baseball fan to know the past few weeks have been an utter nightmare for the Astros. The club was among the game’s elite from 2017-19, but its accomplishments from that span are now in question as a result of a sign-stealing scheme. That scandal has forced major changes in the front office and in the dugout, with the Astros having let go of suspended GM Jeff Luhnow and A.J. Hinch in favor of James Click and Dusty Baker, respectively. At their most successful, Luhnow and Hinch oversaw the Astros’ first-ever World Series-winning team in 2017. But that seven-game victory over the Dodgers is now tarnished in the eyes of many around the game.

Dodgers outfielder Cody Bellinger, a member of the 2017 runners-up and the reigning NL MVP, went so far as to declare last week that the Astros “stole” a championship from him and his teammates. However, Major League Baseball did not formally strip the Astros of the title they won (it obviously would have been a drastic measure for MLB), and commissioner Rob Manfred explained why over the weekend.

“First of all, it had never happened in baseball,” Manfred said.  “I am a precedent guy.  The 2017 World Series will always be looked at as different, whether not you put an asterisk or ask for the trophy back.  Once you go down that road as for changing the result on the field, I just don’t know where you stop.”

Manfred went on to state, “The idea of an asterisk or asking for a piece of metal back seems like a futile act.” That didn’t sit well with one of Bellinger’s teammates and another member of the Dodgers’ 2017 team, Justin Turner. The third baseman fired back that Manfred set “a weak precedent” with his punishment of the Astros, continuing: “For him to devalue [the trophy] the way he did yesterday just tells me how out of touch he is with the players in this game. At this point, the only thing devaluing that trophy is that it says ’Commissioner’ on it.”

“Now anyone who goes forward and cheats to win a World Series,” Turner added (via Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times), “they can live with themselves knowing that, ’Oh, it’s OK. … We’ll cheat in the World Series and bring the title back to L.A. Screw [manager] Dave Roberts and screw [general manager] Andrew [Friedman]. It’s just those guys losing their jobs. I still get to be called a champion the rest of my life.’ So the precedent was set by him yesterday in this case.”

Strong comments, to say the least. Which side are you on here? Would Manfred have gone too far in taking away the Astros’ championship?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Ohtani’s 2020 As A Pitcher

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It was revealed earlier this week that the Angels will go without the pitching of two-way star Shohei Ohtani until at least the middle of May. It’s not wholly unsurprising that Ohtani won’t be ready at the start of 2020. After all, he’s on the mend from a rather serious surgical procedure – the dreaded Tommy John – that he underwent in October 2018. Considering his value to the franchise, there’s no need for the Angels to rush Ohtani back if they’re not fully confident in his health.

All that said, it’s disappointing that Ohtani has pitched so few innings since the Angels brought him over from Japan prior to 2018. The latest news is especially damaging when considering that the team hasn’t added a front-line starter since last season, even though expectations were that it would pick up at least one over the winter. The Angels, stuck in a five-year playoff drought, did get Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran, but they’re more back-end innings-eaters than standouts. On the other hand, Ohtani has the ability to produce No. 1- or 2-type numbers for the club this year, but it’s obvious it’ll be over an abbreviated amount of innings.

The lack of frames Ohtani has racked up since he joined the Angels is no doubt a letdown – not that it’s his fault. He came to the majors as one of the most ballyhooed international free agents ever – someone often called the Japanese Babe Ruth – and has not faltered when healthy. Ohtani tossed 51 2/3 innings of 3.31 ERA/3.57 FIP ball with 10.97 K/9 and 3.83 BB/9 as a major league rookie, averaging just under 97 mph on his fastball along the way. It was a dazzling display overall, and Ohtani truly showed what he’s capable of when he threw seven scoreless, one-hit innings of 12-strikeout ball against the Athletics in his second career start.

Ohtani remained really good through his initial season, though injuries were an issue, thus limiting him to two major league pitching appearances from the start of June through the end of the year. We haven’t been treated to Ohtani the pitcher since Sept. 2, 2018, and we’ll have to wait at least a few more months to get another look at that aspect of his game.

Fortunately for the Angels and baseball in general, Ohtani’s no one-trick pony. He’s also quite an offensive player, having slashed .286/.351/.532 (136 wRC+) with 40 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 792 plate appearances since he emigrated from his homeland.

At the very least, the 25-year-old Ohtani is in line to help the Angels as a designated hitter throughout the entirety of the upcoming campaign. But how much of an impact do you think he’ll make as a hurler when he officially returns from surgery? Vote in the polls below…

(Innings poll link for app users)

(ERA poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: A 14-Team Postseason

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Major League Baseball’s playoff format last underwent seismic changes entering 2012, when it expanded the postseason to allow four wild-card teams into the tournament instead of two. Things have stayed the same since then, but further adjustments may be in the offing.

Beginning in 2022, the first season after the current collective bargaining agreement expires, commissioner Rob Manfred and MLB could add two more playoff qualifiers per league. That means almost half of the sport (14 of 30 teams) would have some chance of reaching the World Series when the fall rolls around. But that’s not all – MLB would hand the No. 1 team in each league a first-round bye, the higher-seeded teams that don’t have byes would select their first-round opponents and those clubs would play three-game series in one city.

On one hand, an expanded playoff setup would likely encourage more teams to make an effort to compete. There are arguably too many franchises that haven’t pushed hard enough to grab playoff spots in recent years. It could also increase television ratings and ticket sales, as clubs that might normally be out of the race late in the season would have more realistic shots at getting to October. Those are all good things from the league’s perspective.

On the other hand, there’s a case that a 14-team postseason would reward mediocrity and further water down the playoffs. In most cases, these six and seven seeds aren’t going to be juggernauts. Back in 2017, for example, the Royals and Rays would have made the tourney with 80-82 records. It’s extremely unlikely, but imagine a sub-.500 team going on a magical run in the fall and winning the whole thing. That would perhaps make a mockery of the six-month regular season. Although, of course, we don’t know how these potential changes would affect the regular campaign. It’s possible the schedule would switch to fewer than 162 games (a total that has been in place for both leagues since 1962) in order to accommodate a longer postseason.

All said, there are pros and cons to an increased group of playoff teams. Where do you stand on the subject?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Red Sox?

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The Mookie Betts trade saga finally reached an end Monday when the Red Sox announced a deal sending him and left-hander David Price to the Dodgers. Both players were instrumental in helping the Red Sox to their most recent World Series title in 2018, and Betts is on a short list of the game’s greatest players. But the Red Sox nonetheless moved on from the two, saving $75MM in the trade ($48MM on Price, $27MM on Betts) and getting back a trio of promising young players in outfielder Alex Verdugo, infielder Jeter Downs and catcher Connor Wong.

Needless to say, Boston’s hope is that Verdugo, Downs and Wong will emerge as long-term core pieces. In the here and now, though, only Verdugo figures to play a significant role. The 23-year-old had a solid rookie season in 2019 before injuries cut him down. Even if Verdugo stays healthy in 2020, he’s not going to make Red Sox fans forget about Betts. That’s not a knock on Verdugo – who has shown that he’s a quality major leaguer – but a compliment to Betts, a legitimate superstar.

Betts was among the driving forces for a position player group that finished fourth in the majors in runs and sixth in fWAR last year. To be sure, Betts didn’t do it all himself. There’s still incredible talent on hand in shortstop Xander Bogaerts, third baseman Rafael Devers and designated hitter J.D. Martinez. They should continue to make Boston’s offense a bear for enemy pitchers to deal with, while Verdugo, fellow outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. (if he’s not dealt), and catcher Christian Vazquez look like fine complementary pieces. That said, there’s no doubt Boston’s offense would have looked better had Betts remained a part of it.

Just as the Red Sox’s position player group took at least a short-term hit in this trade, so did its rotation. Price may not have been the all-world ace the Red Sox expected when they signed him to a then-record $217MM contract entering 2016, but he’s still an above-average starter. While injuries held Price to 107 1/3 innings last season, he did log a useful 4.28 ERA/3.62 FIP with 10.73 K/9 and 2.68 BB/9. Price was undoubtedly a top three starter on a team whose rotation didn’t get much from anyone else but Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale a season ago.

Rodriguez and Sale are still on the roster, but there aren’t any sure things backing them up in Boston’s staff. Nathan Eovaldi will try to rebound from a horrid season, and the team brought in the relatively inexpensive Martin Perez (a back-end starter) in free agency. It’s up in the air who will occupy the fifth spot in the Red Sox’s rotation behind that quartet. As for the club’s bullpen, which endured its share of scrutiny last year, there haven’t been any especially notable additions this winter.

The 2019 campaign didn’t go as planned for the Red Sox, who entered with title aspirations but ended up winning a disappointing 84 games. They’ve since let go of their manager, Alex Cora, as a result of a sign-stealing scandal, and now the face of their franchise and one of their most reliable starters are also gone. Cora hasn’t been replaced yet, but his successor will be stepping into a drastically different situation than the one he oversaw. The Betts- and Price-less Red Sox are still a talented team, though, and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said Monday that it’s still “realistic” to believe they’ll compete in 2020. Considering how their roster looks now, do you agree?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: The Futures Of Jeff Luhnow, A.J. Hinch

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Former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch were among the most successful in baseball in their positions, but their legacies have been tarnished over the past few weeks. Almost a month ago, Major League Baseball suspended the pair for a year apiece for their roles in a 2017 sign-stealing scandal that has dominated headlines in recent weeks. In an effort to distance themselves from Luhnow and Hinch, the Astros fired both of them shortly after MLB banned the two for the 2020 campaign. The question now is whether either will return to their previous jobs with other teams when their suspensions end.

The Astros hired Luhnow, a former Cardinals executive, as their GM heading into the 2012 season. The club endured a couple incredibly lean years thereafter, winning 50-some games in Luhnow’s first two seasons, before beginning an upward climb that culminated in three straight 100-win campaigns from 2017-19. The Astros won their first-ever championship and a couple AL pennants in that three-year span, but now the legitimacy of that run is in question. Luhnow, per a report from the Wall Street Journal on Friday, may have been complicit in a sign-stealing scheme called “Codebreaker.”

While Luhnow denied having a role in “Codebreaker”, commissioner Rob Manfred disagreed, saying that “there is more than sufficient evidence to support a conclusion that you knew—and overwhelming evidence that you should have known—that the Astros maintained a sign-stealing program that violated MLB’s rules.”

Hinch, meanwhile, has come off as more contrite than Luhnow. He has owned up to the fact that the Astros committed wrongdoing on his watch. That should help Hinch’s cause if he attempts to become a manager again. It’ll have to be with another team, though. The Rubicon has been crossed in Houston, where he won’t get his old job back. The same applies to Luhnow. But do you expect another team to hire either of them sometime after their suspensions expire?

(Luhnow poll for app users)

(Hinch poll for app users)

Grading The Mookie Betts Trade

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In case you missed it — which, c’mon, you call yourself a MLBTR reader?! — the Red Sox have agreed to send superstar outfielder Mookie Betts to the Dodgers in a deal that also involves the Twins in a significant fashion.

Betts may be a rental player, but he’s an awfully good one, making this is a true blockbuster. Accordingly, it’s imperative that we get the consensus grades from the MLBTR readership — yes, long before we know what will become of the young players included in this deal. (It’s pretty easy to grade trades after the fact, right?)

Let’s set forth each club’s side of the deal, with a corresponding poll:

Los Angeles Dodgers

Give: RHP Kenta Maeda ($12MM through 2023 with significant performance incentives); OF Alex Verdugo (1.078 years MLB service; controllable at least through 2024)

Get: OF Mookie Betts ($27MM in 2020); SP David Price (approximately $48MM through 2022)

Grade:

[Poll link for app users]

Boston Red Sox

Give: OF Mookie Betts ($27MM in 2020); SP David Price (approximately $48MM through 2022)

Get: OF Alex Verdugo (1.078 years MLB service; controllable at least through 2024); SP/RP Brusdar Graterol (0.029 years MLB service; controllable at least through 2025)

Grade:

[Poll link for app users]

Minnesota Twins

Give: SP/RP Brusdar Graterol (0.029 years MLB service; controllable at least through 2025)

Get: RHP Kenta Maeda ($12MM through 2023 with significant performance incentives)

Grade:

[Poll link for app users]

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Astros?

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The Astros have been a juggernaut dating back to 2017, evidenced by their three 100-win efforts, two American League pennants and World Series title. However, thanks to the sign-stealing scandal from their championship-winning campaign, the Astros’ recent excellence has been sullied in the minds of many observers. Although the club’s the reigning AL champion, it’s now going into 2020 with plenty to prove on the field. It also has a new GM and manager, having parted with the eminently successful Jeff Luhnow-A.J. Hinch duo after MLB issued each of them one-year suspensions for their roles in Houston’s misdeeds.

With spring training closing in, the Astros moved quickly to replace Luhnow and Hinch after firing them in mid-January. They tabbed former Rays vice president of baseball operations James Click on Monday to take over for Luhnow in the wake of selecting veteran Dusty Baker as their new manager last week. Click’s coming over from an organization known for doing a lot with a little, but despite the chaos that has enveloped the Astros, he’s not walking into a franchise low on talent. The 70-year-old Baker, meanwhile, is a calming influence and a longtime winner whom the Astros hope will help them sail through stormy waters.

Of course, one of the knocks on Baker is that he has never helped guide a team to a title in his 22 seasons as a manager. Could that change in 2020? Perhaps, though he’s inheriting a roster that has taken some hits this offseason. There’s no more ace Gerrit Cole, who left for the hated Yankees for a record contract after two straight sterling seasons in Houston. There’s also no more standout reliever Will Harris, who became a National in free agency, or offensive-minded catcher Robinson Chirinos (now a member of the division-rival Rangers). And the Astros haven’t done anything remotely splashy via the trade or free-agent markets (the latter of which is all but devoid of impact players now) to cover for their key departures or strengthen other aspects of their roster.

While this has not been a banner winter for the Astros, they do still look to be contenders on paper. Last year’s all-world offense – one fronted by Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, George Springer and Michael Brantley, among others – remains intact. Better still, the Astros could get full seasons from Alvarez (the 2019 AL Rookie of the Year whom they didn’t promote until almost halfway through June) and the Altuve-Springer-Carlos Correa trio after those stars were limited by injuries in the most recent campaign. And while Cole and now-Red Wade Miley are gone from their rotation, the Astros still boast an elite top two with reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke. They’ll also get Lance McCullers Jr. back from Tommy John surgery, though it’s up in the air how the rest of Houston’s starting staff will look once Opening Day arrives.

As nightmarish as this winter has been for the Astros, there’s no denying there’s plenty of talent still on hand. However, another 107-win season may be too much to ask – especially with their division having gotten stronger in recent months. The Athletics, a 97-win club twice in a row, look capable of challenging for the crown. Meantime, the Angels and Rangers appear to have made significant improvements after the pair stumbled to sub-.500 records a year ago. All that said, how do you expect the scandal-ridden Astros to fare this season?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Diamondbacks?

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It has been an eventful offseason, perhaps unexpectedly, in Arizona. The club stayed on the periphery of the NL Wild Card race much of last season, but they never had especially strong postseason odds. Ultimately, they did fall short, finishing four games back of the Brewers for the final playoff spot. They were certainly not a bad team, going 85-77, but they were hardly dominant.

Entering the offseason, the club looked positioned to be relatively active. They had some payroll flexibility already, and they freed up more room on the books by non-tendering Taijuan Walker and Steven Souza, Jr. Nevertheless, it came as a bit of a surprise to see the Snakes act as aggressively as they have this winter.

That activity started in mid-December, when they brought in Madison Bumgarner from the division-rival Giants on a backloaded five-year, $85MM contract. Shortly thereafter came the signing of Kole Calhoun on a two-year, $16MM deal (with a club option for a third year). Calhoun, the Angels’ decision to decline his team option for 2020 notwithstanding, had a productive bounceback effort in 2019, putting up a .232/.325/.467 slash (108 wRC+) with his customary solid defense. He’ll presumably line up alongside the recently-extended David Peralta as the Snakes’ top two corner outfielders.

Between Calhoun and Peralta will be a Marte, but not the one who manned center most often in the desert last offseason. Starling Marté was brought aboard in a trade with Pittsburgh this week, a move MLBTR readers generally approved of. That frees up star Ketel Marte to move back to second base, where the club got mediocre production last season and faced the free agent departure of Wilmer Flores.

Beyond Ketel Marte, there’s not a true star on the roster, but there are very few obvious weaknesses, either. Carson Kelly, Christian Walker, Eduardo Escobar, and Nick Ahmed round out the projected lineup. Bumgarner and Robbie Ray figure to front a rotation hoping for full seasons from midseason trade acquisition Zac Gallen and the returning Luke Weaver.

There’s probably not many more noteworthy moves coming this offseason. Per Roster Resource, the Starling Marté trade brought the club to an estimated $123MM payroll. That’s generally in line with their expenditures in recent seasons. Furthermore, GM Mike Hazen threw cold water on the idea of blowing past prior spending levels in December.

So, if this is indeed the team Arizona will head into the season with, just how good are they? Can they threaten the perennial powerhouse Dodgers in the NL West? Have they done enough to at least position themselves as a Wild Card favorite?

(poll link for app users)

Who Signs First, Yasiel Puig Or Brock Holt?

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After two winters of pretty stagnant free agent movement, it is somewhat remarkable that 48 of the players on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list have already found new teams by February 2.  We look back at all these signings and the nonstop array of misses in our — okay, my — set of picks in the free agent prediction contest, only two players remain available, both former All-Stars: the controversial Yasiel Puig (37th in our rankings) and longtime Red Sox utilityman Brock Holt (41st).

Jeff Todd examined Puig’s market earlier this week, listing a wide range of teams that could still be speculative fits for the outfielder.  The problem facing Puig, however, is that “speculation” is all we have to go on after an offseason that has been short on hard news about the former Dodger.  The Marlins and White Sox were both linked to Puig at various points, though those clubs seem to have already addressed their outfield needs, as Miami signed Corey Dickerson and Chicago acquired Nomar Mazara in a trade with the Rangers.  An argument could be made that Puig might still be a fit for the Sox as a platoon partner with Mazara, though the Pale Hose seem committed to seeing if Mazara can still blossom as an everyday player (and if necessary, another right-handed outfielder could potentially be found at a lower price tag than Puig).

The Tigers were our pick for Puig’s next team back in November, though GM Al Avila recently said that Puig was “not a priority” for the club, despite Detroit’s lack of outfield depth.  It could be a bit of gamesmanship on Avila’s part if there are some negotiations going on with Puig’s representatives, though it could also reflect a potential league-wide truth — Puig isn’t seen as a must-have option.  He might not receive many looks until we get deeper into Spring Training, and opportunities develop due to injuries, or teams becoming dissatisfied with their in-house outfield choices.

Puig hasn’t been his biggest ally due to some of his off-the-field antics, though that focus on his personality tends to obscure the fact that he is still only 29 years old, and still a productive player.  Even acknowledging that 2019 was a down year, Puig still batted .267/.327/.458 with 24 homers over 611 PA with the Reds and Indians, good for a league-average 100 OPS+ and 101 wRC+.  You have to figure that some team will eventually take the leap to sign Puig because of what he has demonstrated over his seven MLB seasons.

Holt is older (31) than Puig and seemingly has none of the baggage, as Holt was popular with both teammates and fans over seven years with the Red Sox.  Holt has been a classic jack-of-all-trades over his career, making at least nine starts at every position on the diamond except pitcher and catcher and filling in whenever a need has arisen.  For instance, Holt has primarily played second base over the last two years due to Dustin Pedroia’s ongoing knee problems.  Over 2295 plate appearances, Holt has also provided a solid average (.271) and on-base percentage (.340), even if his .374 slugging percentage doesn’t promise much pop.

Given the trend towards multi-positional players in today’s game, it is somewhat surprising that Holt is still looking for a new team.  With so many clubs seemingly trying to develop a young player into their own version of a super-utilityman like Holt, you’d think one team would have moved to sign the 1.0 version now that he has hit the open market.  Then again, the catch-22 of Holt’s versatility is that while it makes him a fit on virtually any team in baseball, it also (like Puig’s situation) doesn’t make him a “priority” of a signing.  As in, teams will turn to Holt to fill roster holes, but only after they see if their current utility candidates can pan out.

The Reds and Blue Jays have both shown interest in Holt this winter, and the Red Sox also had some talks about a reunion early in the offseason, though there hasn’t been any news on that front since Chaim Bloom was hired as Boston’s chief baseball officer.

We still have time before Spring Training opens, so it might yet be a while before either Puig or Holt put pen to paper on a new contract.  But which do you think will be the first to land with a team?

(Poll link for app users)

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