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Predict The NL Central Winner

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With final roster decisions in the books and the 2020 season underway at long last, it’s time to make some predictions. We’ve started to poll the MLBTR readership on each of the game’s six divisions — starting with the AL Central. With plenty more teams primed to crack the postseason under the inclusive new playoff qualification system, let’s jump the pond and take a look at the NL Central.

Kyle Hendricks gave the Cubs an early lead in the division yesterday with a 2 1/2 hour complete game shutout of the Brewers. The Reds were right there with them in blowing away the Tigers. Many believe the Reds won the offseason, and their beefed-up lineup looks to bullrush the rest of the division. Matt Davidson took the Reds’ DH at-bats in game one, but newcomers Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos will cycle through as well. The pitching is underrated, and they’re going to be a force. The Brewers roll out two of the most impactful rostered players in the sport in Josh Hader and Christian Yelich, a dangerous pair of superstars in a short season. The Pirates are an organization in transition, and if they manage a string together a competitive 60-game season, it’ll be a surprise. Until a new champ is crowned, however, the Cardinals remain the toast of the NL Central. With Carlos Martinez back in the rotation and Matt Carpenter set to take a healthy slate of DH at-bats, the 2020 Cardinals are a slightly different shape, but no less formidable.

Which team do you think is the best of the bunch? (Poll link for app users.)

Predict The AL Central Division Winner

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With final roster decisions in the books and the 2020 season underway at long last, it’s time to make some predictions. We’ll poll the MLBTR readership on each of the game’s six divisions — though plenty more teams will crack the postseason under the rather inclusive new playoff qualification system.

There’s rather an interesting dynamic in the American League Central division this year. The Twins stepped up in 2019 and have added Josh Donaldson to an already potent lineup. They’ll try to hold off the Indians, who had previously enjoyed a stranglehold on the division and have some of the best core talent around. There’s no denying the immense potential that resides on the White Sox roster, which features both elite youngsters and newly inked quality veterans. The Royals feel they’ve got quick bounceback potential after a few down seasons; if a few players hit their ceilings, perhaps they could surprise. It’s harder to see a path for the Tigers, but they’ve also got a load of elite young hurlers pushing into the majors and will enter the season determined to make strides.

Which team do you think is the best of the bunch? (Poll link for app users.)

Poll: A Major Change To Extra Innings

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Four of the majors’ 30 teams will open the regular season July 23, while the other 26 will begin on the 24th, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. As a 60-game campaign with various notable rule changes – including a universal designated hitter – as well as possibly no fans in the stands, it figures to go down as one of the strangest baseball seasons ever. Of course, those are far from the only aspects of the sport that will be drastically altered this year. Extra-innings games will also look far different, to name one example.

Every year features at least some marathon games, but it appears we’ll see far fewer this regular season. Once the 10th inning rolls around (and if games extend beyond then), the hitting team will have a distinct advantage because it will begin the frame with a runner on second. That player will be the one who made the last out in the previous inning, though clubs will be able to select a pinch runner if they wish. Should the runner who started the inning on second score, the pitcher would not be charged with an earned run. Notably, this change to extras will not extend into the playoffs, nor is it sure to stick around past this year.

There are at least a couple potential pros to this rule, which has been used in the minor leagues and in the World Baseball Classic in recent years. For one, it should help teams keep relievers’ workloads down. It will also undoubtedly help speed up games, as J.J. Cooper of Baseball America explains that 44 percent of minor league games from 2016-17 ended before the 11th inning. But since the minors placed a runner on second in 2018, 73 percent of extra-inning contests have concluded in the 10th. Additionally, there’s an argument it makes games more exciting, considering the level of drama’s turned up right at the start of extras.

On the flip side, there are lots of baseball fans who don’t mind the occasional extra-long game, not to mention plenty of purists who don’t want the game revised to such a significant extent. Astros manager Dusty Baker is one prominent example of someone who’s not thrilled with the rule, as he told Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, “This will be something new for us, but I hope it doesn’t go into next year or subsequent years.”

Are you in agreement with Baker, or are you hoping this new setup will have staying power? (Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Will Alex Cora Manage Again In MLB?

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Thursday evening was one of the few times that former Red Sox manager Alex Cora has spoken publicly since the club fired him in late January. At the outset of the offseason, no one would have expected such a horrid outcome for Cora, who was wildly successful during his two years as Boston’s skipper. But Cora found himself embroiled in a couple of scandals – one for the Astros’ sign-stealing violations from a World Series-winning 2017, when he was its bench coach; the other came as a result of Boston’s sign-stealing from the 2018 campaign, in which Cora was a rookie manager who helped the team to a championship.

The Red Sox felt it was best to part with Cora as MLB was deliberating his fate. After months of reviewing the evidence, the league decided in April to suspend Cora through the 2020 postseason. However, it only banned Cora for the role he played as Houston’s assistant in 2017, not Boston’s manager the next season. Cora has since acknowledged the errors he made with the Astros, including when he took responsibility on Thursday (via Marly Rivera of ESPN.com) and said: “I deserve my suspension and I’m paying the price for my actions. And I am not proud of what happened.”

The 44-year-old Cora went on to admit he’d eventually like to return to baseball. It’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll get back into the game in any capacity, but if teams are willing to believe he has learned his lesson, he could re-emerge as a managerial candidate down the line (perhaps he’ll first have to prove himself again as an assistant). Cora did hold his own in that position in the pressure cooker known as Boston, where he guided the team to 192-132 regular-season record and the aforementioned championship. With that in mind, do you think some MLB franchise will ever give him another shot as a manager?

(Poll link for app users)

Did The Tigers Make The Right Choice At 1-1?

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We polled MLBTR’s readers last night about the biggest surprises on the first day of the 2020 MLB draft. Thus far, the Red Sox’ decision to choose Nick Yorke in the first round has drawn the most votes.

Before Yorke’s name was called, the Tigers had first crack at every single player available. The rebuilding ballclub went with Arizona State’s Spencer Torkelson, an advanced player with an unassailable offensive track record, effectively making him the heir apparent to legendary slugger Miguel Cabrera. The two could well overlap in the middle of the Detroit order for a few years, supposing Torkelson develops as hopes and Cabrera can rebound.

Easy enough, right? There weren’t any gasps of disbelief when Torkelson’s name was called. Then again … the Tigers did have other options.

Pundits have long debated whether Torkelson or Vanderbilt’s Austin Martin was a better selection at the top of the board. The latter has a much broader toolset and could potentially have fit into the long-term picture in Detroit in any number of ways. There’s a reason the Blue Jays were thrilled to see him somehow still available with the fifth overall selection. Perhaps the Tigers would’ve been wiser to roll with a player of this sort, particularly given the club’s complicated recent history with defensively limited slugger types. (While the Tigers have thrived with big bats, they’ve also whiffed on big money to Cabrera and Victor Martinez and ran into difficulty maximizing their control rights over J.D. Martinez and Nicholas Castellanos.)

As the Orioles showed us, that wasn’t the only alternative. The Baltimore organization decided to cut a deal with another highly valued prospect, Heston Kjerstad, in order to (presumably) allocate some of the bonus pool funds from their lofty draft pick to day-two selections. Given the limitations of this year’s draft, that strategy could open the door to some high-ceiling talent and spread the team’s draft resources over multiple players. As the debate over Torkelson and Martin shows, neither of the two was considered an especially compelling 1-1 candidate when viewed against those taken at the top in past years. The Tigers, like the O’s, certainly need a volume of players and could conceivably have taken this path as well.

There was at least one other possible approach for the Detroit brass to bat around: taking top collegiate hurler Asa Lacy of Texas A&M. The club reportedly dabbled with that idea ahead of time, due in part to the fact that they’ll now have to negotiate with agent Scott Boras over terms on Torkelson. (Boras also reps Martin.) Taking Lacy would’ve put another advanced arm into a system that’s already loaded with them. And that would’ve fit as part of a legitimate plan to pump arms into the system. There’s a reason we’ve all heard the phrases, “you can never have enough pitching” and “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.” There’s risk and upside and need all at once. Had the Tigers ended up with an over-abundance of MLB-ready arms … well, they’d likely have little trouble finding innings and/or swapping some hurlers out for whatever bats they might need at the time. Lacy might not have been such an under-slot play as the O’s pulled, but perhaps there’d have been some leftover coin to work with in that scenario as well.

So … how do you view the Tigers’ decision? (Poll link for app users.)

Poll: Biggest First-Round Surprise

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The No. 1 pick in this year’s Major League Baseball Rule 4 Draft went as expected: The Tigers took Arizona State slugger Spencer Torkelson. Otherwise, though, there were some eye-openers in Wednesday’s first round, as Jim Callis of MLB.com and Keith Law of The Athletic were among those to cover. Let’s take a look at some of those moves and then you can vote on the biggest surprise from the opening round.

  • Vanderbilt 3B/OF Austin Martin “falls” to Blue Jays at No. 5: It’s a bit hyperbolic to suggest that someone who went fifth overall actually “fell” down. Martin was regarded by some as the best all-around prospect in the draft and was expected by many to go in the top two picks. Once the Orioles passed on him, though, both the Marlins and Royals opted to do the same, dropping yet another premium position player prospect into the Blue Jays’ laps. Martin will now join a future core that includes Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio and Nate Pearson, among others.
  • Orioles select Arkansas OF Heston Kjerstad at No. 2: Everyone anticipated that Kjerstad would be a first-rounder, but closer to the middle of the round. Kjerstad is regarded as having some of the best left-handed pop in the class — if not the best left-handed pop. But the Orioles are likely going to look to cut a deal here, thus allowing them to double up on a more balanced pair of high-end prospects.
  • Minnesota RHP Max Meyer goes No. 3 to the Marlins: Meyer was projected as a Top 10 pick, but southpaw Asa Lacy was generally expected to be the top pitcher off the board, with most mock drafts projecting him to go to the Marlins. Miami clearly liked Meyer better, despite concerns about his height (6’0″). The Gopher ace runs his heater up into triple digits and will give the Fish a power arm to pair with an already-impressive crop of young pitching talent.
  • Giants grab another college catcher: Two years after grabbing Joey Bart at No. 2 in the 2018 draft, the Giants used yet another top pick on a backstop. This time, with the 13th choice, San Francisco went with North Carolina State’s Patrick Bailey. Between Bart and Bailey, perhaps the Giants will be able to find at least one successor to franchise great Buster Posey. Regardless, president of baseball Farhan Zaidi simply believes Bailey was too good to pass on in that spot. “You don’t draft for need and you can never have too much catching,” Zaidi said (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, on Twitter).
  • A Red Sox reach? In a move that J.J. Cooper of Baseball America regards as “the shock of the first round,” Boston used the 17th pick on Nick Yorke, a high school middle infielder from California. Yorke was not regarded by prospect gurus as a first-rounder entering the draft; however, because the Red Sox don’t have a second-rounder this year, they felt it was worthwhile to pick up Yorke when they still could.

(Poll link for app users)

A Bad Trade Gets Even Worse

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Neither the Pirates nor their long-suffering fans needed more unfortunate news Wednesday, but they received some centering on one of the team’s most prominent players. The club announced that right-hander Chris Archer underwent the dreaded thoracic outlet syndrome surgery on Tuesday, meaning he won’t play in 2020 if there is a season.

While the team believes Archer will be ready to return in 2021, it’s very much up in the air whether he will pitch for the Pirates again. The club does have Archer’s rights for ’21 by way of an option worth $11MM, but it could choose to buy him out instead for a relatively paltry $250K. In light of the surgery – not to mention the money the low-budget Pirates would save (which could be all the more important for them in these uncertain economic times) and Archer’s uninspiring production in their uniform – it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Bucs cut ties with him in a few months.

It’s well known by now to everyone who closely follows the majors, but here’s yet another reminder: Archer joined Pittsburgh in a 2018 trade with the Rays that looked like one of the worst in Pirates history even before Wednesday’s developments. The Pirates and then-general manager Neal Huntington thought they were acquiring a front-end, reasonably priced starter in Archer, who was then 29 and someone who had recorded a 3.69 ERA/3.48 FIP with more than a strikeout per inning in 1,063 frames as a Ray. Since Archer got to Pittsburgh, though, his run prevention has gone in the tank. While he has struck out almost 11 batters per nine, he has also logged a less-than-stellar 4.92 ERA/4.71 FIP over 172 innings as a Pirate.

The Rays, for their part, are no doubt pleased with their end of the trade. They came away with outfielder Austin Meadows and righty Tyler Glasnow, who were promising prospects as Pirates and who have since proven their worth in the majors. The 25-year-old Meadows was a 4.0-fWAR player with 33 home runs a season ago. Glasnow missed a substantial amount of time with injuries in 2019, but the towering 26-year-old was a force during the 60 2/3 innings he did accrue, as he owned hitters with a 1.78 ERA/2.26 FIP, 11.27 K/9 against 2.08 BB/9, and a 50.4 percent groundball rate.

Now more than ever before, it appears the Pirates are going to rue making this deal. So, perhaps they’ll regard it as a sunk cost and decline Archer’s option when the time comes, especially considering new GM Ben Cherington has no connection to the trade that brought the hurler to the Steel City. As you’d expect, though, Cherington suggested Wednesday he hasn’t closed the door on retaining Archer.

“We won’t have games to evaluate, but there will be other information that we have at that time that we don’t have now,” Cherington told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “We want to take all the time we possibly can until we have no time remaining, and then make the best decision we can at that time.”

Cherington would probably like to at least get something for Archer in a trade, but that may be impossible to ask now that he’s coming off TOS surgery. Regardless, do you think Archer is done as a Pirate?

(Poll link for app users)

Will There Be A Major League Baseball Season?

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Go back to, say, Feb. 26, and a question like the one offered in this poll would have seemed unfathomable. Spring training was in full swing at that point, and there was no sign that a normal regular season wouldn’t happen. Now, because of multiple depressing realities, we’ll get a shortened Major League Baseball season at best or perhaps none at all.

If we rewind to March 13, MLB suspended operations as a result of the coronavirus. For the most part, expectations since then have been that the league’s return would depend on the health and safety of everyone involved, but now it could be money that plays a huge role in preventing a season from happening. The league and the union have recently been at loggerheads over revenues during a truncated season, and Tuesday didn’t deliver any breakthroughs suggesting they’re getting closer to a compromise.

MLB owners, who have not been open to an even split in revenues, presented a proposal calling for further reduction in pay for players. Those making the highest guaranteed salaries would lose the most money under the league’s plan, which has not gone over well with the other side. MLB’s offer left the union disappointed, and while there’s still time for the two to continue negotiations and ultimately reach a deal, it’s not a sure thing that the MLBPA will even want to pick up talks again after it feels it was slighted in this round of discussions.

Mets right-hander Marcus Stroman was among the league’s prominent players to publicly voice his distaste for the owners’ offer Tuesday. “This season is not looking promising,” he said in a tweet.

Do you share Stroman’s grim outlook? Or will both sides, knowing how much they have at stake, find common ground before it’s too late?

(Poll link for app users)

Is Big Papi A Hall Of Famer?

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Baseball fans love to debate which players should make it to the Hall of Fame, and with the designated hitter position so prominent in the news at the moment, it got me to thinking about David Ortiz’s Cooperstown case. The Boston legend will be eligible to make it there in 2022, and there’s a strong argument he should wind up with a plaque in the museum.

Ortiz is one of the most feared hitters in recent memory, but his career began inauspiciously in Minnesota. As a Twin from 1997-2002, Ortiz amassed 1,693 plate appearances and batted .266/.348/.461 (106 wRC+) with 58 home runs. The Twins then cut ties with Ortiz, but at the behest of Pedro Martinez, the Red Sox signed Big Papi to a non-guaranteed contract in January 2003. Now, in terms of franchise-altering steals, that could rank in Boston sports lore with the Patriots getting Tom Brady in the sixth round of the 2000 NFL Draft.

Ortiz was a smash success with the Red Sox from the jump, as he slashed .288/.369/.592 (145 wRC+) and put up 31 homers in 509 trips to the plate during his first season with the team. The Red Sox lost to the hated Yankees in the ALCS that year, but they and Ortiz frequently ruled the sport after that. During the rest of Ortiz’a career from 2004-16, all of which was spent in Boston, the Red Sox won three World Series. He was a 10-time All-Star and a .290/.386/.570 hitter (146 wRC+) who piled up 483 homers with the team during that span. Along with his regular-season accomplishments, Ortiz was a monster in the playoffs. When the chips were down in the fall, Ortiz was known to thrive. He was a World Series MVP (2013) and an ALCS MVP (2004 – the year the Red Sox overcame a 3-0 deficit against the Yankees) who appeared in 85 postseason games between his two clubs and hit .289/.404/.543 with 17 HRs.

As for the regular season, Ortiz ranks 65th all-time in wRC+ (140) and 182nd among position players in fWAR (51.0). He ended his career a .286/.380/.552 hitter who racked up the 17th-most homers ever, 541, and remained an elite hitter even in his last season. Ortiz’s amazing run didn’t come without issues, though. Back in 2009, the New York Times reported Ortiz tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs in his breakout 2003 campaign. Ortiz vehemently denied those claims, as you’d expect, and commissioner Rob Manfred came to the slugger’s defense in 2016. Manfred said (via the Boston Globe) it was “entirely possible” Ortiz didn’t take PEDs, adding that “he’s never been a positive at any point under our (testing) program” that began in 2004.

Even if you’re OK with brushing off the PED questions when it comes to Ortiz’s Hall of Fame candidacy, are you willing to be as forgiving when it comes to a lack of defensive impact? For the most part, Ortiz was a full-time DH during his career, which some purists frown upon. For example, former Mariners superstar Edgar Martinez is one of the greatest DHs ever, but it took him until his final year on the ballot (2019) to get to Cooperstown. He’d have been a first-ballot pick for me if I had a vote, though, and the same applies to Ortiz. However, as Hall of Fame expert and FanGraphs writer Jay Jaffe explained in a piece for SI.com in 2016, “a spot in Cooperstown is no certainty” for Ortiz. Do you think it should be?

(Poll link for app users)

Grading Jason Heyward’s Career (So Far)

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It would be an understatement to say the Cubs’ Jason Heyward has had an eventful career in professional baseball. Heyward was the 14th pick of the Braves in the 2007 draft, and the Georgia-raised outfielder’s star continued to rise thereafter. As a prospect, Heyward topped out as Baseball America’s No. 1 overall farmhand after the 2009 season.

“Even if he opens 2010 at Triple-A Gwinnett, Heyward will be starting in Atlanta at some point during the year, and he has all the ability to emerge as one of the game’s premier players,” BA wrote then.

The towering Heyward did not start 2010 in the minors, though, instead beginning as the Braves’ top right fielder. And he made an enormous impact from the get-go, smashing a first-inning, three-run homer off Cubs righty Carlos Zambrano in his initial at-bat. The Braves went on to win that game and 90 more en route to a wild-card berth, owing in no small part to a 4.6-fWAR Heyward effort in which he batted .277/.393/.456 in 623 plate appearances.

It seemed that the rookie version of Heyward was indeed destined for greatness, but his career hasn’t been particularly consistent since then. Heyward remained a Brave from 2011-14, a 2,196-plate appearance run in which he batted .258/.340/.422 with 14.9 fWAR, but they decided after the last of those seasons to trade the homegrown standout to the Cardinals in a deal for right-hander Shelby Miller. That wasn’t indefensible from the Braves’ point of view, as Miller was then an up-and-coming starter with a few years’ team control remaining and Heyward had just one season left before reaching free agency.

[RELATED: Butterfly Effects & The Jason Heyward Signing]

If you go by fWAR, Heyward had his best in St. Louis (5.6), hitting .293/.359/.439 with 13 homers and a career-high 23 steals in 610 PA. Heyward was part of a 100-win team that year, but after the Cardinals bowed out of the NLDS against the Cubs, the free agent went to … the Cubs. They handed him an eight-year, $184MM guarantee, but Heyward’s regular-season numbers have fallen flat dating back to then. During his first four years as a Cub, Heyward batted an underwhelming .252/.327/.383 line across 2,151 trips to the plate, leading to 6.0 fWAR. Heyward’s typically outstanding defense has kept him afloat, as he has logged 42 Defensive Runs Saved and a 27.2 Ultimate Zone Rating as a Chicago outfielder (overall, he has put up 143 DRS with a 99.5 UZR as a big leaguer). Of course, it’s not always just about statistics.

On Nov. 2, 2016, the Cubs and Indians were tied 6-6 through nine innings and stuck in a rain delay in Game 7 of the World Series. It was two teams trying to break long championship droughts, but on Chicago’s side, Heyward went into Knute Rockne mode in the locker room.

“We’re the best team in baseball, and we’re the best team in baseball for a reason,” Heyward told his teammates (via Tom Verducci’s book “The Cubs Way: The Zen of Building the Best Team in Baseball and Breaking the Curse“). “Now we’re going to show it. We play like the score is nothing-nothing. We’ve got to stay positive and fight for your brothers. Stick together and we’re going to win this game.” 

“Right then I thought, We’re winning this f—— game!,” president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said.

The Cubs did just that when the 17-minute delay ended, defeating the Indians in the 10th to pick up their first title in 108 years. It’s hard to quantify how much Heyward meant to that team on an emotional level. He went 0-for-5 in that game and posted a miserable .307 OPS during the postseason, which came after he recorded a personal-worst 72 wRC+ in the regular season, but that Game 7 speech will always live in Cubs lore.

While the Cubs haven’t won another title since 2016, Heyward’s production has trended upward going back to then, as he has been something close to a league-average hitter. Still, that’s not great for a former can’t-miss prospect who’s owed another $86MM through 2023. In all, Heyward has been a bit better than average as an offensive player during his career, having batted .261/.343/.412 (107 wRC+) with 144 homers and 110 steals in 5,580 PA. However, consistently stellar defense has helped the 30-year-old accumulate 31.1 fWAR, which is a higher amount than the vast majority of major leaguers have piled up, and he may have helped key a Cubs title behind the scenes. All things considered, how would you grade his career to this point?

(Poll link for app users)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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