Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Polls

Ace-Off: Buehler v. Bieber

By | at

Two of the preeminent young starters in baseball have emerged in the cities of Los Angeles and Cleveland over the past couple years. With no disrespect to Dodgers great Clayton Kershaw, who’s one of the best to ever take the mound, right-hander Walker Buehler has assumed the mantle of the club’s most valuable starter when you combine age, contract and performance. Meanwhile, the Indians have a similarly enviable rotation piece to build around in righty Shane Bieber, who joined Buehler among the majors’ most productive pitchers in 2019. So, here’s a question that has no wrong answer: If you had to pick one, which of the two would you choose?

To begin, they’re almost the same age, and they’re under team control for the same number of years. The 25-year-old Buehler won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2024. As a Super Two player, he brings one more pre-arbitration campaign to the table (though it won’t matter if there is no 2020 season). Bieber, who will turn 25 next month, is due to reach free agency at the same time, but he’s in his penultimate pre-arb year.

As for on-field results, Buehler has the edge on Bieber thus far in terms of run prevention. Excluding 9 1/3 rough debut innings as a reliever in 2017, Buehler has parlayed a 96 mph-plus fastball into a sterling 2.98 ERA/3.02 FIP with 10.3 K/9 and 2.08 BB/9 across 319 2/3 innings over the past two seasons.

Bieber also began to make his mark in 2018, and while his 4.55 ERA didn’t wow anyone, his peripherals indicated that he deserved better. Although he doesn’t match Buehler’s velocity (Bieber averages 93 mph on his heater), he nonetheless broke out in earnest last season. Bieber notched a 3.28 ERA/3.32 FIP and put up 10.88 K/9 against 1.68 BB/9 in 214 1/3 frames – the second-highest total in the game (only AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander amassed a larger amount) and 32 more than Buehler’s 182 1/3. Buehler had a very similar year otherwise, though, posting a 3.26 ERA/3.01 FIP and recording 10.61 K/9 versus 1.83 BB/9. He further put himself on the map with 12 2/3 exemplary innings of one-run ball in a playoff series loss to the eventual World Series champion Nationals.

It’s obvious there’s a ton to like about this tandem. Buehler and Bieber have not only already established themselves as elite pitchers in their mid-20s, but perhaps elite players in general. Going forward, however, which one would you take to head up your rotation? (Poll link for app users)

Walker Buehler or Shane Bieber?
Buehler 74.44% (3,366 votes)
Bieber 25.56% (1,156 votes)
Total Votes: 4,522

The Battle Of Pennsylvania First Basemen

By | at

It’s no secret that the majors’ two Pennsylvania-based teams possess a couple of the most powerful first basemen in the game. In the Phillies’ corner, there’s Rhys Hoskins. Meanwhile, the Pirates are fortunate enough to have Josh Bell manning the position. Both players are 27 years old and under club control for the next few seasons. But which of the two would you prefer on your team?

Let’s start with Hoskins, a 2014 fifth-round pick who burst on the scene as a rookie in 2017, when he only played in 50 games but still managed to wallop 18 home runs. Although Hoskins has come back to earth since then, he has still been more productive than your typical hitter. The right-handed slugger mashed 29 homers last year, and though his batting average was alarmingly low, his overall slash line (.226/.364/.454) placed him 10 percent above the average hitter by measure of OPS+ and 13 percent above by wRC+. Furthermore, Hoskins has been rather durable – he played in 153 games two years ago and 160 in 2019. He’s also under control for four more years, including one final pre-arb campaign (that’s if a season even happens in 2020).

Bell still has three years left before becoming a free agent – he’ll make a reasonable $4.8MM this season – and has been a similarly productive batter to Hoskins throughout his career. But the switch-hitting Bell, a 2011 second-rounder, truly came into his own last year – he slashed .277/.367/.569 (143 OPS+, 135 wRC+) and racked up 37 HRs over 613 trips to the plate. Also, it was the third straight year of at least 140-some games played for Bell, so he joins Hoskins as someone you can regularly count on to pencil into your lineup.

While Bell was undoubtedly the superior offensive producer a season ago, Hoskins has doubled his lifetime fWAR output over almost 400 fewer plate appearances (Hoskins is at 7.1 in 1,577 PA; Bell has put up 3.8 in 1,968 attempts). Notably, Hoskins has performed far better at first base, having accounted for minus-1 Defensive Runs Saved and a 3.9 Ultimate Zone rating to Bell’s minus-31 DRS and minus-17 UZR. However, despite Bell’s defensive issues, many teams would gladly plug his big bat into their lineup. The same goes for Hoskins. For the sake of this exercise, though, you can only choose one (and remember to consider team control for the two Scott Boras clients). Who’s your pick?

(Poll link for app users)

Rhys Hoskins or Josh Bell?
Bell 60.88% (3,134 votes)
Hoskins 39.12% (2,014 votes)
Total Votes: 5,148

MLBTR Poll: Potential Season Length

By | at

With the coronavirus continuing to wreak havoc across the globe, nobody knows whether a Major League Baseball season will take place in 2020. Even if it does, it’s just about guaranteed that it will span for fewer than the customary 162 games; beyond that, it’s entirely possible the contests will happen at neutral sites with no fans in the stands, and that the National and American Leagues will go away for at least this season. At what point, though, would it be worthwhile to simply give up on a potential 2020 campaign?

MLBTR’s Jeff Todd spoke on the subject of a potentially canceled season Monday, arguing that it’s too soon for the league to make such a decision. I agree, but there may sadly come a time in the next few months when MLB will have to shut down completely until at least 2021 because of this pandemic. Granted, that sort of doomsday scenario should be at least a few months away from coming to fruition. If we’re lucky, for example, things will restart by June or July. That should enable the league to squeeze in at least half of a typical 162-game schedule, and that doesn’t even factor in the possibility of an increase in doubleheaders or a season taking longer than usual on the calendar.

Unfortunately, the way things have gone of late, it seems just a 100-game campaign would be a welcome outcome for everyone with a real interest in MLB. Even that would be a historical occurrence, however, as Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci noted a few weeks back that the shortest year on record is the 1981 season. A strike cut off around a third of that season and limited teams to an average of 106 games apiece.

There isn’t much doubt that the shorter a season goes, the better the chances are of strange results. The cream tends to rise to the top over a full 162, but if we’re guaranteed to see 100 or fewer games in 2020, teams that never would’ve been looked at as realistic contenders in a whole season (or those that were supposed to push for glory) could finish far from expectations. Would that be good for the game, though, or would it would tarnish the results? Feel free to vote in the poll (link for app users) and share your thoughts in the comments section…

How many regular-season games would be too few to make a season worthwhile?
Fewer than 70 (specify in comments) 28.86% (2,224 votes)
70-79 27.67% (2,132 votes)
80-89 21.45% (1,653 votes)
100 14.12% (1,088 votes)
90-99 7.90% (609 votes)
Total Votes: 7,706

MLBTR Poll: The Royals’ Timeline

By | at

We all know the tale of the Royals’ recent run of glory … the team reared a group of top prospects, mixed in some bold trades, ramped up its payroll a bit and came home with a crown in 2015. It still took a series of upsets and surprising events to get to the promised land, but there’s no disputing the validity of the title. Overcoming tall odds only makes the achievement more impressive.

Some manner of rebuilding was obviously going to be required at some point. There’s a strong case to be made that the Kansas City organization should’ve pivoted more forcefully rather than overseeing two consecutive middling seasons after the parade — if not in the 2016-17 offseason, then at the 2017 trade deadline. Still, it’s understandable that the club did not wish to squander any chance at competing with its existing core.

When it finally came time to bid adieu to Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain (and eventually Mike Moustakas), the Royals gained some draft picks as compensation. The organization made clear its intentions with the ensuing 2018 draft, when it used its top five picks on collegiate pitchers. As GM Dayton Moore explained: “We wanted to make a concerted effort on getting some college pitching that we felt had high ceilings, and that could move quickly.”

In the time since, the Royals have steadfastly refused to cash in excellent veteran Whit Merrifield for prospects. There was even talk last year that the organization might pursue an opportunity to challenge for a postseason spot, though that quickly faded and the organization logged its second consecutive hundred-loss campaign.

The just-completed offseason wasn’t exactly a win-now effort. The team did add veteran players — going for another round with Alex Gordon while taking low-risk chances on Maikel Franco, Jesse Hahn, Trevor Rosenthal, and Greg Holland are hardly the — but more in the way that most rebuilding outfits do. But it also again bypassed chances to trade Merrifield, Jorge Soler, Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, perhaps Brad Keller … even backstop Salvador Perez (though he’s returning from a season lost to injury).

If the Royals think it’s worth holding onto players like those, it must be that they see a path to somewhat near-term contention. Clearly, the aim of the K.C. brass is to bounce back into contention sooner than later, rather than overseeing a half-decade-long retrenchment. There’s hope for a wave of talent. That 2018 draft class has thus far worked out as well as could’ve been hoped, with Brady Singer and Daniel Lynch rated as top-100 leaguewide prospects and fellow hurlers Jackson Kowar, Kris Bubic, and Jonathan Bowlan all considered future talents of note. And 2019 first-rounder Bobby Witt Jr. ranks as one of the game’s elite prospects; while he’s further away from the bigs, he could fly through the system. There are a few bats not far from the bigs … Nick Pratto, Khalil Lee, and Kyle Isbel among them.

The overall group of talent doesn’t exactly leap off the page. Farm-wide rankings mostly see the K.C. farm within range of average: Baseball Prospectus (12); MLB.com (17); Baseball America (18); Fangraphs (26). This isn’t a repeat of the legendary system of yore, but the Royals have a number of promising players. They’ll need that farm to yield a lot of big-league ability over the next few years if they’re to return to glory.

What’s your take on the team’s timeline back to contention? (What does “contention” mean? That’s up to you to define, but it surely includes some realistic chance of reaching the postseason.) (Poll link for app users.)

When Will The Royals Return To Contention?
Beyond 28.85% (1,305 votes)
2022 26.17% (1,184 votes)
2023 24.23% (1,096 votes)
2024 11.34% (513 votes)
2021 7.98% (361 votes)
2020 1.44% (65 votes)
Total Votes: 4,524

 

MLBTR Poll: The Arizona Plan

By | at

Less than a month ago, Major League Baseball was hemming and hawing over whether to halt Spring Training. Now, the league is at least considering a rather wild approach to the 2020 season: holding all contests in the Phoenix area for at least a portion of the campaign. If you haven’t read up on this yet, you can do so here and here.

With its statement this morning, MLB has made clear that this is just one of several concepts under consideration. Perhaps this one will fade — at least, the notion of it launching as soon as May — as the situation continues to evolve.

I’ll be sharing some further thoughts on this in an MLBTR YouTube video, which you can look out for later today. But generally, it seems entirely appropriate for the league to make its best efforts to craft a plan to get the game going again. It’s just … is this one even a reasonable starting point?

Let’s see how MLBTR readers feel at this early stage (response order randomized; poll link for app users):

What do you think of a 2020 MLB season in Arizona?
Intriguing possibility 50.33% (5,836 votes)
Worth considering ... just not beginning in May 25.25% (2,928 votes)
Not even worth considering 24.42% (2,831 votes)
Total Votes: 11,595

Prospect Faceoff: Bart vs. Rutschman

By | at

The parallels between the Giants’ Joey Bart and the Orioles’ Adley Rutschman are plentiful. Both were standout catchers at reputable Division-I schools –Bart at Georgia Tech and Rutschman at Oregon State. Bart was in the running for the No. 1 overall pick in 2018 but went second overall to San Francisco. A year later, in 2019, Rutschman went No. 1 overall to Baltimore. Both draw significant praise for their defensive skills — each received a 60-grade on the 20-80 scale at both FanGraphs and MLB.com — as well as their raw power (again, both 60s). They’re widely considered to be the top two catching prospects in the game.

Joey Bart | Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Bart 23, is about 14 months older than Rutschman and has already climbed as high as Double-A on the minor league ladder. He spent most of the 2019 season in Class-A Advanced, hitting .265/.315/.479 (116 wRC+) before a 22-game stint in Double-A where he finished on a tear: .316/.368/.544 (163 wRC+). Bart went on to the Arizona Fall League and hit .333/.524/.767 with four homers in 42 plate appearances before a broken thumb cut his AFL stint short. He could stand to improve his plate discipline (6.2 percent walk rate), but Bart also didn’t strike out at a particularly alarming rate (21 percent).

Behind the plate, Bart posted a rather pedestrian 27 percent caught-stealing rate across those two minor league levels before absolutely owning the run game in the AFL, where he caught nine of the 13 runners who attempted to take a base against him. Scouting reports praise his receiving and framing abilities as well as his ability to block pitches in the dirt — all things you’d expect for a catcher who was named ACC Defensive Player of the Year prior to being drafted in 2018. With Buster Posey’s contract winding down and his production waning, it’s not out of the question to think that Bart could debut in 2020 if the season is able to get underway at some point. If not, a 2021 debut should be considered likely, barring some major injury.

The 22-year-old Rutschman, meanwhile, is obviously further from the Majors but offers many of the same skills. He’s touted as a high-end defensive catcher with a strong arm behind the plate and plenty of pop with the bat. Rutschman hit .254/.351/.423 with a hearty 13 percent walk rate through 154 plate appearances in his pro debut, topping out with Class-A Delmarva. He struck out in just 17.5 percent of those plate appearances, although it’s worth pointing out that he really hasn’t faced any pitching that’s older and more experienced than he is just yet.

Adley Rutschman | Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Unlike Bart, Rutschman is a switch-hitter. He has power from both sides of the dish even if most reports agree that his left-handed swing is superior to his right-handed swing. He threw out seven of the 11 hitters who tried to steal against him in his limited pro debut and, by all accounts, should be adept at controlling runners, calling a game, blocking pitches in the dirt and framing. It’s reasonable to expect that he’ll be in the Majors by 2022 — and a 2021 debut isn’t all that far-fetched (depending on any service time games the Orioles do or don’t feel like playing).

Given that Bart and Rutschman were elite college catchers who went within the first two picks of a draft class in consecutive seasons, this likely isn’t the only place you’ll see the two of them compared in the coming years. Rutschman is generally ranked more highly on prospect lists, although not by much in some cases. He’s No. 4 to Bart’s 14 at MLB.com and No. 5 against Bart’s 10 at FanGraphs. Other publications have a bit more distance between them, including Baseball America (Rutschman at 5, Bart at 32), Baseball Prospectus (Rutschman at 4, Bart at 25) and The Athletic (Rutschman at 10, Bart at 44). Prospect rankings are in a constant state of flux, though, and the pair is close enough that the consensus opinion could easily change in a few months’ time.

It’s clear that both are expected to become high-end catchers with All-Star potential, but let’s open up the debate (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…

Which prospect would you rather have?
Adley Rutschman 61.10% (2,844 votes)
Joey Bart 38.90% (1,811 votes)
Total Votes: 4,655

MLBTR Poll: The Luis Robert Extension

By | at

Super-talented, MLB-ready 22-year-olds don’t grow on trees. If you do happen upon one, what are the odds they perfectly fit your roster need and contention window? Viewed from that perspective, and accounting for the context of MLB player valuation, the $50MM risk the White Sox took on Luis Robert is a slam dunk.

Of course, all of that guaranteed cash is payable over a six-year term — the precise amount of time the club could’ve enjoyed him in the majors even without promising another dime. And it could’ve been nearly seven full seasons with a bit of service-time trickery. So, the South Siders are only gaining control over one or two seasons of would-be free agency. (Which is it? Depends upon one’s cynicism levels. And the as-yet-unknown question whether Robert will need to spend further time in the minors once he reaches the big leagues.)

Presuming the options are exercised, the deal maxes out at $88MM over eight campaigns. And that’s on top of the $26MM that the team spent just to lure Robert into the organization in the first place! Compare that to Mookie Betts, one of the game’s most productive younger players, who just secured a record-setting $27MM salary for his final trip through arbitration. The Red Sox and Dodgers got 6+ seasons of Betts for a total cost of about $60MM in salary.

Now, there’s inflation to consider. Betts’s earnings wouldn’t have been nearly that robust had he debuted six seasons earlier. If Robert can produce something like Betts, he’ll surely out-earn Mookie. And the White Sox are picking up one or two added seasons of control, which could be quite valuable. We know how much the Dodgers valued the chance to control Betts for just one season, even while paying him a big salary. Again: if Robert has a career path of that kind, then those option years will be an enormous boon to the White Sox.

The thing is, it’s not really reasonable to compare Robert to a guy like Betts. Can he perform to that level? Sure, he’s considered one of the very best prospects in all of baseball for a reason. But that’s hardly the likeliest outcome. Even putting aside the question of talent and production, there are numerous hiccups that can stall a player’s arbitration earning power. Carlos Correa is only earning $7.4MM in his second-to-last arb-eligible campaign — less than half of what contemporary Francisco Lindor will earn ($16.7MM). Rewind two years and these guys looked like a coin flip on value. As it turns out, Correa dealt with ill-timed injuries that significantly dented his ability to earn via arbitration.

Running the numbers, it’s hard to imagine you could really go much higher with an up-front guarantee for a pre-MLB player — at least, perhaps, unless the team was able to pick up yet more future control. The Robert contract, which tops the White Sox’ deal last year with Eloy Jimenez, included a pretty hefty premium to achieve cost certainty and some added control (along with, perhaps, the ability to promote him on Opening Day 2020 without concern for service time). That said, the White Sox have an excellent track record with extensions, having achieved big value in the past with players such as Chris Sale and Adam Eaton.

How do you view the deal? (Poll link for app users.)

How do you view the Luis Robert extension?
Great decision; those option years are super valuable! 68.42% (2,457 votes)
This was an unnecessary risk for the White Sox 17.32% (622 votes)
Nice to have him under contract but not a lot of upside 14.26% (512 votes)
Total Votes: 3,591

MLBTR Poll: The 2020 Draft

By and | at

Thanks to the coronavirus pandemic, there is no telling whether we’ll even get a Major League Baseball season this year. That uncertainty also affects important off-field events that include the amateur draft. The draft is still slated to take place from June 10-12, though nobody knows if it will actually occur this year.

As we noted last week, carrying on with the draft as scheduled would be the ideal scenario for the sport. Otherwise, the lives of many draft-eligible players could be thrown (even more) into chaos. How would a cancellation or postponement impact college juniors and seniors? How would it affect prospects who are about to graduate high school? Those players’ seasons – including those who would have participated in the College World Series – have already come to a halt because of this global catastrophe that has has put a stop to scouting.

Teams have less information on prospects than they normally would, but at least one executive is unfazed. That person told Ken Rosenthal and Jayson Stark of The Athletic (subscription link): “We’re not going to have an opportunity to dot the ‘i’s and cross the ‘t’s. But we’ve got a lot of information. We’ve seen these guys play for a long time. We know who the top players are. Let’s just get ‘em in our system.”

A shorter draft (two to three rounds) could take place, as Rosenthal and Stark write, but such an event would require teams to readjust their draft pools and how they handle undrafted players. The players may not be gung-ho on the idea, anyway. One person on the union’s side told Rosenthal and Stark that it would be a “colossal error” to go in that direction.

How to proceed with the draft is one of numerous difficult situations for which the league is going to have to find an answer. We’d all like to see the draft happen on time. Otherwise, though, MLB will have to push the festivities back to later this year or perhaps even combine this draft with the 2021 version.

(Poll link for app users)

What should MLB do about the 2020 draft?
Hold it on time 56.77% (2,637 votes)
Push it back 34.60% (1,607 votes)
Combine it with the 2021 draft 8.63% (401 votes)
Total Votes: 4,645

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Mets?

By | at

It wasn’t an especially aggressive offseason for the Mets, a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2016, but perhaps it didn’t need to be. After all, even though the franchise, its ownership and general manager Brodie Van Wagenen are often maligned, team brass has assembled a rather talented roster. Last year’s Mets amassed 86 wins – the sixth-highest total in the National League – and are set to bring back their best contributors from then if and when the season gets underway.

Of course, a pair of award winners are at the forefront of the roster. Right-hander Jacob deGrom has earned back to back National League Cy Youngs. There’s little reason to believe he or first baseman Pete Alonso, who pounded 53 home runs in 2019 to earn NL Rookie of the Year honors, are going to let up. And there’s plenty of proven talent supporting that pair, with an appealing rotation (albeit one that lost Zack Wheeler to the division-rival Phillies in free agency) that will consist of some combination of deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Rick Porcello, Steven Matz and Michael Wacha.

Meanwhile, a position player cast that finished 2019 seventh in wRC+ and 11th in fWAR is returning the same key complements to Alonso. Hitting machine Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto (currently down with an oblique strain, but he could be fine by the time the season starts), Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis, Dominic Smith, Wilson Ramos and Amed Rosario haven’t gone anywhere. Neither has potential Hall of Fame second baseman Robinson Cano, for whom there appears nowhere to go up after a shockingly poor, injury-marred first season as a Met. And Yoenis Cespedes seems to be progressing after three straight injury-ruined campaigns of his own.

Cano and Cespedes make for potential rebound candidates, as do multiple members of a Mets bullpen that fell on its face a year ago despite Van Wagenen’s efforts to improve it during the previous winter. Edwin Diaz, who joined the Mets from the Mariners in the Cano blockbuster that has blown up in New York’s face so far, and big-money signing Jeurys Familia were terrible. Considering their strong track records, it seems fair to expect some sort of bounce-back effort this season. Likewise, former Yankees star Dellin Betances – who came to the Mets in free agency – is also seeking a return to form. But that’s on account of injuries that all but wiped out his 2019, not any kind of decline in performance. The hope is that those three will get back to normal and join Seth Lugo, Justin Wilson, Robert Gsellman, Brad Brach and likely Wacha to comprise a dominant bullpen. There’s loads of risk in that bunch, but the upside is evident.

It was an odd winter for the Mets, who had to can rookie skipper Carlos Beltran before he ever managed a game, thanks to his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. To the chagrin of many Mets fans, they also saw a potential sale of the franchise fall apart. Off-field turmoil aside, Beltran’s replacement, Luis Rojas, looks to be inheriting a good situation. However, it should be a dogfight in the NL East, which could feature as many as four contenders (the Braves, Nationals and Phillies are the others).

Before the coronavirus turned the world on its head, back when baseball was supposed to consist of 162 games, PECOTA projected 87.9 wins and a division title for the Mets. Normally, it would be customary to ask how many victories you expect them to rack up, but a 162-game season is a pipe dream at this point. Therefore, let’s take the simpler route: If a baseball season does happen, will the Mets make the playoffs?

(Poll link for app users)

Mets to the playoffs in 2020?
Yes 54.76% (4,280 votes)
No 45.24% (3,536 votes)
Total Votes: 7,816

MLBTR Poll: Bauer vs. Ray vs. Stroman

By | at

Baseball’s hiatus gives us an opportunity to examine both the past and future of the sport. Yesterday, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked back at a potential franchise-altering trade that never materialized. Today, we’ll turn our attention to the future: specifically, the upcoming free agent class.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ran his initial 2020-21 free agent power rankings a few weeks ago. No question, Mookie Betts looks like the jewel of a position player heavy class. Yet the pitching side looks a bit muddled. Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray and Marcus Stroman checked in alongside one another (in that order) as the three arms in Tim’s top ten. Obviously, there’s time for one to emerge as the unquestioned top starter on the market in 2020. As of now, though, which hurler do the MLBTR readers anticipate getting the top guarantee next winter, and which one would you prefer your favorite team roll the dice on?

  • Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati: For most of his career, the 29-year-old Bauer’s been a durable, mid-rotation type. He’s soaked up tons of innings, but in five of six seasons, he’s put up an ERA between 4.18 and 4.55 (with marginally better FIP’s). At his best, though, Bauer flashed a ceiling most pitchers can only dream of. In 2018, the former #3 overall pick worked to a 2.21 ERA with an elite 30.8% strikeout rate. An unsustainably low HR/FB rate meant that ERA always figured to regress somewhat, but it was still surprising to see Bauer post a league-average 4.48 mark in 2019. Bauer, of course, has expressed a desire to sign a series of one-year deals as a free agent. If he sticks to that plan, he’ll almost certainly not garner the top overall guarantee for a pitcher this offseason (or any other). But that high-risk approach is easier to espouse in theory than in practice, and Bauer recently walked back that plan a little bit. His free agency will be fascinating to follow.
  • Robbie Ray, Arizona: A bit like Bauer, the 28-year-old Ray is a tantalizing but somewhat frustrating talent. Since the start of 2017, he ranks fifth among starters (minimum 300 innings) in strikeout rate and 12th in swinging strike rate. He’s surrounded by the game’s aces on both leaderboards. Only Tyler Chatwood and Francisco Liriano have higher walk rates than Ray in that same period, though. The southpaw has never had a season with a better than average walk rate; that general inefficiency has run up some high pitch counts and helped prevent Ray from ever eclipsing 175 innings in a season. His ERA’s the past four years have varied quite a bit (4.90, 2.89, 3.93, 4.34). Teams could have different evaluations for Ray’s future, but the most likely outcome seems to be solid mid-rotation production via something of an extreme approach.
  • Marcus Stroman, Mets: Unlike his top two competitors, Stroman doesn’t generate many whiffs. The 28-year-old’s sinker is more conducive to a ground-ball heavy game. He throws strikes and has managed to avoid home runs even in the juiced ball era thanks to strong contact management. Stroman’s sinker/slider/cutter mix isn’t the four-seam/curveball combination coveted by most teams nowadays. Nevertheless, he’ll have plenty of suitors since he’s proven capable of ample success. 2018 was an injury-marred struggle, but Stroman’s put up at least 184.1 innings in three of the past four seasons and boasts a career ERA of 3.76. That’s a better track record of run prevention than either Bauer (4.04) or Ray (4.11) can boast.
  • Others: Other free agents to be (complete list of 2020-21 free agents) include Kevin Gausman, James Paxton, Alex Wood and Taijuan Walker. Between age, injuries and/or recent underperformance, it’s tough to project any of them to beat Bauer, Ray or Stroman this winter. Perhaps you’re more optimistic about someone a bit under-the-radar?
Which Free Agent Starter Will Earn The Largest Guarantee In 2020-21 Offseason?
Trevor Bauer 43.15% (3,272 votes)
Marcus Stroman 28.48% (2,160 votes)
Robbie Ray 24.23% (1,837 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 4.14% (314 votes)
Total Votes: 7,583

poll link for app users

Which 2020-21 Free Agent Starter Will Prove To Be The Best Investment For A Team?
Trevor Bauer 40.89% (2,217 votes)
Marcus Stroman 33.83% (1,834 votes)
Robbie Ray 25.29% (1,371 votes)
Total Votes: 5,422

poll link for app users

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top