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Trevor Story

Rockies, Trevor Story Haven’t Discussed Extension

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Barring a contract extension, Rockies shortstop Trevor Story will be one of the most sought-after free agents on the open market next winter. The Rockies don’t expect to trade Story before the season starts, but they also haven’t discussed a long-term deal with the 28-year-old, Nick Groke of The Athletic tweets.

“Yeah, it’s a contract year, but to me, every year is pretty much that way,” Story said.

This doesn’t mean the Rockies and Story won’t find a deal in the next few weeks, as extensions often take time to come together during spring training. However, odds seem to be against the Rockies retaining Story, especially after they let go of third baseman Nolan Arenado – who partnered with Story to form a tremendous left side of the infield – in a trade with the Cardinals this month.

The Rockies did save quite a bit of money in giving up Arenado, which could help them extend Story. But the Rockies don’t look as if they’ll contend in the near future, which might help prevent Story from inking a long-term pact with the club. If there isn’t a deal in place by the summer trade deadline, Story will be a prime candidate to wind up on the move.

Story is set to earn $17.5MM in 2021, when he’ll try to follow up on a stellar three-year run in which he batted .292/.355/.554 (124 wRC+) with 83 home runs and 65 stolen bases in 1,571 plate appearances. He also notched 20 Defensive Runs Saved and a 10.3 Ultimate Zone Rating at short during that span. The entire package was worth 13.5 fWAR, which ranked 10th among position players and placed Story right behind fellow shortstops Francisco Lindor and Xander Bogaerts.

As of now, Story and the Mets’ Lindor are scheduled to be part of a loaded class of shortstops in free agency next winter. The Dodgers’ Corey Seager, the Astros’ Carlos Correa, the Cubs’ Javier Baez, the Blue Jays’ Marcus Semien and the Twins’ Andrelton Simmons are also on track to reach the open market then.

GM Jeff Bridich: Trevor Story Expected To Begin Season With Rockies

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With Nolan Arenado now officially on his way to the Cardinals, questions have inevitably turned to the future of another star Rockies infielder in Trevor Story.  The shortstop is entering the final year of his contract, but the team expects that Story will begin 2021 in a Colorado uniform, as GM Jeff Bridich told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter links) and other reporters today.

Bridich stopped short of saying that Story wouldn’t be traded whatsoever, as “it’s very difficult to predict what the coming months will look like.”  Beyond just Story, however, Bridich more firmly stated that the Arenado trade wasn’t the first of many for his team.  “This certainly is not a total tear-down and rebuild….If that was the case, certain players already would have been traded,” the general manager said.

That comment could be a more pointed reference to Story, considering how Story can be a free agent next winter.  The shortstop has been cited as a logical trade candidate for months, though while reports in December suggested the Rox were at least considering the possibility, there hasn’t been much in the way of concrete news about specific teams pursuing Story.  That said, it’s probably safe to assume that every team in need of a shortstop this offseason at least placed a call to Bridich to check in on Story’s availability.

While that list of possible suitors has narrowed as several notable shortstops have come off the board in free agency and in the trade market, there would certainly still be plenty of interest in Story if the Rockies changed course and shopped him now, or even in midseason as a pure trade deadline rental.  A case could certainly be made that Colorado is better off moving him now in order to maximize Story’s trade return, since waiting until closer to the trade deadline creates added risk of an injury, or Story struggling, or teams being less willing to give up multiple prospects since they’d only have Story for a portion of a season rather than all of 2021.

However, the Rockies seem intent on not throwing in the towel on the coming season.  At today’s press conference, owner Dick Monfort told The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other media that “I truly believe this is a very talented team that underperformed the last two years.”  Monfort has been notably over-optimistic about his team in the past (most notably his prediction almost exactly one year ago that the 2020 Rockies would win 94 games), and even if the Rockies were better than their 2019-20 records indicate, that certainly isn’t a promise of future success.  Colorado has done little this offseason besides trade Arenado, while the Dodgers and Padres now seem prepared to dominate the NL West for years to come.

Cardinals Agree To Acquire Nolan Arenado

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10:32pm: Arenado will receive another guaranteed year on his contract for roughly $15MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that he could waive his no-trade clause as early as Saturday.

8:51pm: The Cardinals and Rockies have swung an enormously impactful trade centering on Colorado third baseman Nolan Arenado, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was among those to report. The Rockies will send around $50MM to the Cardinals in the deal, according to Rosenthal, who adds that it likely won’t be official tonight and perhaps won’t go through this weekend.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause, though Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic reported earlier this week that he is likely to waive it in order to join the Cardinals. The five-time All-Star also has an opt-out clause in the seven-year, $234MM extension he signed with the Rockies before the 2019 campaign. But Arenado would still be able to opt out after 2021, he’d get an additional opt-out after ’22 and he would keep his full no-trade clause, Rosenthal tweets. He still has $199MM left on his pact over the next six years.

This has been a low-profile winter for St. Louis and the rest of its competition in the National League Central competition, but the Cardinals have suddenly come alive after a long slumber. Before agreeing to acquire Arenado, they re-signed right-hander Adam Wainwright, and indications are that they’ll bring back catcher Yadier Molina. Of course, in terms of impact, Wainwright and Molina pale in comparison to Arenado, one of baseball’s highest-profile stars. The well-rounded Arenado, who will turn 30 in April, has batted .293/.349/.541 with 235 home runs in 4,558 plate appearances since he debuted in 2013. Arenado has also totaled a whopping 120 Defensive Runs Saved and a 56.4 Ultimate Zone Rating at third base, where he has won eight straight Gold Gloves.

While Arenado was hugely successful in Colorado, his relationship with the team was – in a word – rocky over the past couple years. The Rockies were a playoff team from 2017-18, but they’ve dropped off drastically since. After the club fell well shy of a playoff spot in 2019, Arenado made it known he was unhappy with the direction of the franchise, saying he felt “disrespected.” Arenado frequented trade rumors then, but the Rockies retained him during what turned into another subpar year for the organization. It was also a disappointing campaign for Arenado, who slashed a career-worst .253/.303/.434 with eight homers in 201 PA.

Even though 2020 didn’t go as planned for Arenado, the Cardinals are clearly banking on him to serve as their long-term solution at third base. The team primarily used Matt Carpenter and Tommy Edman there last season, which was a playoff year. However, Carpenter went through his second straight below-average year, and he’s only signed for one more season. Carpenter is due to earn $18.5MM in 2021, while his $18.5MM option for 2022 is sure to be bought out for $2MM if he’s still with the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the versatile Edman could be the Cardinals’ pick at second base.

The Arenado pickup will obviously be a significant investment for the Cardinals, whose chairman, Bill DeWitt Jr., drew ire last summer for saying baseball’s not a “very profitable industry.”  But the Cardinals suddenly do look as if they’re aiming to take over the NL Central in 2021, especially with none of their other division rivals – the reigning champion Cubs, Reds, Brewers or Pirates – doing much to better themselves this offseason. Certainly, if the Arenado trade is finalized, it will be the biggest acquisition in the division this winter.

The Rockies, on the other hand, looked to be in for a third consecutive lean year in 2021 before trading Arenado, and that’s all the more true with the face of their franchise on his way out the door. They’ll likely acquire lefty Austin Gomber as part of the return, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Rosenthal names first baseman Luken Baker, outfielder Jhon Torres, and righties Jake Woodford and Angel Rondon as other possible names the Rockies could acquire. Gomber debuted in the majors in 2018 and has posted a respectable 3.72 ERA over 104 innings, though that production obviously falls quite a bit short of the impact Arenado has made.

With Arenado leaving, the question now is whether the Rockies will deal shortstop Trevor Story, who’s entering his platform year. Story would no doubt bring back a sizable return in a trade, as he is among the top players in the game at his position. It would seem to make sense for the Rockies to part with him if they’re not expecting to contend in 2021, but they may be interested in extending him, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays.

Shortstop Notes: Simmons, Story, Polanco

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The Phillies, Reds, and Jays (among others) are those taking a look at Andrelton Simmons, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Phillies and Reds are natural fits for the former Angel, given their openings at shortstop. The Blue Jays have notably explored many avenues for improvement. In the case of Simmons, it would mean raising their defensive efficiency in the infield, presumably by installing Simmons at short and letting Bo Bichette slide to third, where he would no doubt be a plus defender. At present, it would be surprising if the Phillies and Reds aren’t able to nab a shortstop apiece from the group of Simmons, Marcus Semien, and Didi Gregorius, given their clear need compared to other teams around the league. Considering the group of shortstops that could become free agents next year, teams could be trying to limit their long-term commitments at the position, though that’s not as likely as negotiations simply hanging up because of total dollars as teams hunt value deals.

  • Speaking of free agents to be, the Rockies’ Trevor Story may be the one of the bunch most likely to hit free agency next summer. At present, Colorado remains unmoved in their position to neither trade nor extend their star shortstop, per ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). At times this winter, they have been open to the idea of moving Story, but the most likely outcome still appears to be Story playing out the 2021 season in Coors Field and then hitting the open market.
  • The Twins may be one of the mystery teams taking a look at Simmons. When asked by Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (video link) if Jorge Polanco would be their opening day shortstop, Twins GM Thad Levin said, “I think we look at our team and say Byron Buxton’s our opening day centerfielder, and Josh Donaldson’s our opening day third baseman – almost everyone else on our team has defensive flexibility. We view that as a huge boon to our team.” Wolfson notes that the Twins know the asking prices for free agent shortstops Simmons and Marcus Semien are keeping an eye on it.
  • To be clear, Levine in no way implied that Polanco would not be a big part of their team in 2021, only that they consider the defensive malleability of the current roster as one of their advantages – both in the market and on the ball field. By DRS, OAA, and UZR, Polanco has measured as a subpar defender at shortstop throughout his career, and the Twins may see value in moving him to second in order to upgrade the infield defense on the whole. More broadly, the Twins appear keen on making the “best” free agent deal they can find, regardless of position. If flexibility really is central to the Twins’ philosophy, that could help explain any reticence they might have about locking Nelson Cruz into the designated hitter spot . That said, it’s hard to imagine finding any player better at their position than Cruz was as their DH the last two seasons (163 wRC+).

Latest On Trade Availability Of Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

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A potential trade of star third baseman Nolan Arenado remains a legitimate possibility for the Rockies this winter, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports, though Saunders downplays the possibility of Arenado landing with the Dodgers or any other division rival in the NL West. Owner Dick Monfort is “extremely hesitant” to trade Arenado within the National League West, according to Saunders.

The remaining money on his contract limits the number of potential suitors, however, making it easy to project Arenado into the Justin-Turner-sized hole currently at third base for the Dodgers. Trading a face-of-the-franchise superstar like Arenado, however, rarely fits as glove-in-hand as it may seem on the surface. Still, the Rockies only have so many ways to cut payroll, if that’s their goal.

They are warming to the idea of moving Trevor Story, per the latest report from the Athletic’s Nick Groke and Eno Sarris.  The Colorado front office has long put off the possibility of dealing their star shortstop. Beyond Arenado and Story, however, their two largest contracts on the 2020 payroll belong to Ian Desmond and Charlie Blackmon, both of whom would be difficult to move. Beyond that quartet, there simply aren’t many simple solutions to create more payroll flexibility while bringing back assets.

Story is facing his final season before free agency. For all his talent, however, it’s a complicated time to move a first-division All-Star shortstop like Story. The Indians were quick to put Francisco Lindor at the front of the line, while Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, and Ha-Seong Kim from the KBO are attractive alternatives on the free agent market.

On the other hand, taking the risk on one year of Story might be an easier pill to swallow for inquiring teams given the surfeit of peers on the same free agency timeline. Corey Seager, Javier Báez, and Carlos Correa will join Story and Lindor as free agents after 2021 if none are extended.

Unfortunately, the Rockies have fewer and fewer researchers to help the front office make qualified, franchise-altering decisions, writes Groke and Sarris. They lost four of six researchers from their Research and Development team since the end of last season, though it’s important to note that these weren’t employees let go by the organization. And yet, Groke and Sarris provide a relatively grim picture of the Rockies’ current resources, but they are far from the only team in the league dealing with tightened belts and smaller staffs. The full article from the Athletic on the state of affairs in Colorado is well worth a read.

MLBTR Poll: Shortstop Trade Candidates

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It’s early in the offseason, but three star shortstops have already been mentioned as trade candidates. The Indians’ Francisco Lindor, the Rockies’ Trevor Story and the Astros’ Carlos Correa each seem to have at least a small chance of ending up on the move this winter. The question is: Which of the three would you prefer to acquire?

There isn’t a more accomplished member of the trio than Lindor, a 27-year-old who has already earned four All-Star nods and a pair of Gold Glove Awards since his career began in 2015. If you’re looking for flaws, though, the switch-hitting Lindor isn’t coming off a stellar year at the plate, as he slashed .258/.335/.415 (good for a league-average 100 wRC+) with eight home runs and six stolen bases in 266 trips. He also comes with potentially the biggest price tag of the three players, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary between $17.5MM and $21MM for his final year of team control.

Story, 28, had a better year than Lindor and Correa in 2019, slashing .289/.355/.519 (117 wRC+) with 11 homers and 15 steals across 259 plate appearances. It was the third straight exemplary season for Story, a two-time All-Star who’s also a year from free agency. Story’s locked in for a $17.5MM salary next season after signing a two-year, $27.5MM extension before 2020.

Correa is also slated to be part of next winter’s standout class of free-agent shortstops. In the meantime, he’ll rake in the lowest salary (between $8MM and $10.2MM) next year. The 26-year-old’s name hit the rumor mill earlier this week, though the Astros reportedly aren’t in active negotiations to trade him. If they were, they wouldn’t be aiming to sell high on Correa, who was uncharacteristically pedestrian at the plate in 2020. Correa wound up with a line of .264/.326/.383 (97 wRC+) and five HRs in 221 PA. The good news is that he stayed healthy after three consecutive injury-limited, albeit more productive, seasons.

All three of these well-known shortstops are nearing free agency, so any of them could be involved in trades before the 2021 campaign. Considering their production and their salaries, which one would you want?

(Poll link for app users)

Trade Candidate: Trevor Story

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There’s a strong case to be made that the Rockies out to auction off the rights to star shortstop Trevor Story this winter. While it’s tempting to hold tight and hope he can help lead a renaissance, it’s a fair sight easier to imagine that backfiring than working out.

The Rockies had a taste of short-season contention, but had a dreadful 2020 run deficit (275-353) and have played decisively sub-.500 ball since the start of 2019. There’s still a strong core of talent, but the path to contention is awfully questionable given the Rockies’ meager supporting cast and injury questions (Jon Gray, David Dahl, Scott Oberg) … not to mention the quality of the NL West competition.

The Colorado organization has a number of needs and unclear means to address them all sufficiently. The team has mostly finished paying for its recent swings and misses in free agency and has already begun drawing down payroll. But it’s still on track to spend north of $130MM (assuming they tender most arb-eligibles) even before making any additions. Owner Dick Monfort didn’t exactly suggest he’ll be buying up new talent, writing to season ticketholders that “there will be nothing normal about this offseason as the industry faces a new economic reality.”

It’s a scenario in which many teams will explore their options with quality veterans. But who to deal? The Rox dabbled in some major scenarios last winter but ultimately kept third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’d be awfully difficult to strike a reasonable deal now, given his hefty salary and subpar offensive season. Charlie Blackmon is too expensive to foist onto another team after a middling season. They could certainly move German Marquez, but that’d mean giving up a 25-year-old rotation building block with a good contract situation.

Enter Story, a mid-prime star shortstop who is still youthful (28 in ten days) but entering his final season of team control. It’s much the situation that Arenado was in a few years back, except that Story will command a rather less onerous salary ($17.5MM) than Arenado had lined up for his final season of arbitration.

Arenado ended up inking a monster extension rather than testing free agency. That’s an avenue here, too … in theory, anyway. Monfort certainly didn’t sound like he was plotting out another nine-figure deal. While Story would never have commanded Arenado-like money, and certainly won’t now during a pandemic, he’d still cost a pretty penny.

Make no mistake: Story is a truly elite position player. If anything, he’s underrated, perhaps due to his roller-coaster first two seasons in the majors. Since he settled in, Story has compiled the tenth-most fWAR in baseball over the past three years.

We honestly don’t need to dive in too far to understand the point here. Story once had big pop and a ton of strikeouts, but he figured out the latter problem without sapping his power. He drove his K rate down to 24.3% in the just-completed season and is still driving the ball with authority. He’s in the top 5% leaguewide in speed and plays outstanding defense.

How about the demand side? Story isn’t cheap, but he’s an absolute bargain who would instantly elevate a lineup. Acquiring him would only require a one-year commitment and bring with it the likelihood of a qualifying offer (with anticipated draft compensation) this time next year. There’s always the potential for an extension as well.

Demand may not be widespread — it’ll tick up next winter when several big-time shortstops hit the open market — but it’s not hard to envision teams having keen interest. The Angels, Reds, Phillies, and Yankees all make particular sense on paper. Story is good enough that a team could consider acquiring him and playing him at third base, or instead moving an existing shortstop to another spot on the diamond.

It’ll be hard for the Rockies to go forward with moving Story. Keeping him at least until mid-season would at least give the club a chance. Then again, it would also mean paying half his salary, risking injury or decline, and taking the qualifying offer off of the table (which will reduce the value that an acquiring team would anticipate receiving in a swap). Unless Monfort and GM Jeff Bridich are able to mount a surprise run at an extension with Story’s reps, biting the bullet and getting a trade done this winter looks to be the best option.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rockies Notes: Monfort, Murphy, Hilliard

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The Rockies lost 91 games in 2019, and they haven’t signed a single major league free agent, but Chairman and CEO Dick Monfort predicts a 94-win season in Colorado, per The Denver Post’s Kyle Newman. That would be a franchise high for the Rockies, who thrice have won 90 games but never exceeded 92. And of course, they have yet to capture their first NL West crown. Let’s stick with the Rockies…

  • Monfort cites the 2007 to 2009 Rockies as precedent for his projection, who sandwiched a pair of playoff teams around an 88-loss unit in 2008. The core of the Rox’ 91-win team from 2018 remains largely intact (for now) with Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Charlie Blackmon leading the offense, while Jon Gray, German Marquez and Kyle Freeland front the rotation. Of course, questions abound for that group, from performance to health to Arenado’s recent comments about the team. The Rockies were a top-10 unit by measure of runs scored even in 2019, so a turnaround isn’t impossible. Significant, wholesale improvements from the pitching staff would have to figure heavily in a turnaround after the staff ranked 29th in the majors with a 5.58 ERA in 2019.
  • Daniel Murphy will be a key player to watch in 2020, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Murphy seemed like a great fit for Coors Field heading into 2019, but an injury slowed the start of his season and the offensive numbers never really surfaced. Murphy doesn’t bring a plus glove at first base, so his contribution needs to come with the bat. A .279/.328/.452 line was his lowest mark across the board since 2015.
  • Of the young players, Sam Hilliard has a chance to break into the everyday lineup, per MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. The lefty masher put up a 1.006 OPS in 27 games last year, an impressive audition. He’s a candidate to take the strong end of a platoon with Ian Desmond in left. Hilliard will have to prove he can make enough contact to see his name on the lineup card daily, but with his combination of speed and power, the physical gifts are there.

Rockies Agree To Two-Year Contract With Trevor Story

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January 31: The Rockies have now formally announced Story’s two-year deal. Feinsand tweets that Story will be paid a $2MM signing bonus, an $8MM salary in 2020 and a $17.5MM salary in 2021.

January 24, 8:39pm: It is indeed an arbitration-only contract, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan tweets. Story will receive $27.5MM over the two-year term. The Rockies will not gain control over any prospective open-market seasons but will gain some cost certainty as part of the deal.

8:36pm: The Rockies are closing in on a “multi-year deal” with star shortstop Trevor Story, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and Jon Morosi (Twitter link). It is not yet clear whether the contract would cover any potential free agent seasons or merely settle multiple arbitration campaigns at one time.

Needless to say, a long-term extension would be a fascinating development given all the recent chatter regarding fellow star Nolan Arenado. If it’s merely an arb work-out, it’d be a notable but hardly headlining development.

Story has filed for a $11.5MM salary, with the Rockies countering at a $10.75MM offer. He’s in his second season of arbitration eligibility after earning $5MM in 2019. Story is slated to reach free agency at the end of the 2021 campaign.

Regardless of the contract specifics, the 27-year-old Story figures to be a monster again on the field in 2020. He’s coming off of a second-straight 30+ homer, 5+ fWAR effort. Story strikes out more than you’d like and only draws walks at league-average levels, but is still an exceptionally well-rounded performer. He hits for average with loads of power, contributes value on the bases, and is an outstanding defender at short.

2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:

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