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2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

Deadline Notes: Rockies, Story, Mets, Bryant, Gibson, Nationals, Dodgers

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The Rockies reportedly received offers for All-Star shortstop Trevor Story from the Yankees, Brewers, White Sox, and Rays prior to Friday’s trade deadline, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter). The Rockies have been criticized for their failure to move Story, given that they are all but assured to lose him as a free agent after the season. They will get a draft pick when he departs, and their front office did not deem any of the offers received as appreciably better than that draft pick will be.

  • Despite all the talk, the Mets never came particularly close to acquiring Kris Bryant from the Cubs, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). The two clubs were obviously in steady communication — and eventually consummated a deal for Javier Baez — but the Cubs kept the conversation away from Bryant. Given how long Bryant had been “on the block,” the Cubs certainly had a sense of what was available.
  • The Mets did, however, explore the cost for Kyle Gibson of the Rangers, notes Puma, but the Rangers informed them that they had a better offer on the table from the Phillies.
  • The Nationals had the pieces in place for a deal that would have sent Max Scherzer to the Padres on Thursday night, but they also had a deal in place with an American League East team, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com. The Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, and Red Sox were all said to have interest in Scherzer at one point or another.
  • As for the Dodgers’ side of that deal eventual deal, they were intent on holding onto Ryan Pepiot, Bobby Miller, and Landon Knack, despite wide-ranging interest in that trio of arms.

Trevor Story “Confused” By Lack Of Trade

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Rockies’ shortstop Trevor Story is “confused” after not being traded before today’s deadline, according to Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. “I don’t have really anything good to say about the situation and how it unfolded,” Story says.

Story has been often mentioned as a logical trade candidate, given the fact that he’s a pending free agent on a non-competitive club. Even here at MLBTR, Steve Adams placed Story 7th on a list of top trade candidates just a few days ago, noting that it was unlikely the club would hang onto him, though admitting there was a slight chance of the club hanging onto the slugger and making him a qualifying offer at year’s end. That appears to have been the thinking in the Colorado front office.

“With what we were offered, we thought the (competitive balance) pick was better suited for us and we could have Trevor on our team for another two months,” general manager Bill Schmidt said. The White Sox, Rays and Blue Jays apparently made offers that didn’t match up to that draft pick, at least in the estimation of Schmidt and his team.

Perhaps the offer were somewhat dulled by Story’s subpar season. His wRC+ of 84 is well below his marks over the past three years, which all ranged between 117 and 128. But given that his strikeout and walk rates are in line with previous years and his BABIP is way down, some teams surely could have believed that regression was due. Regardless, Story will remain a Rockie for two more months, with his seeming frustration with management not boding well for their chances at re-signing him in free agency.

Jon Gray, another impending free agent, also remains a member of the club after the deadline. Saunders notes that Gray “wants to stay in Colorado” and the club has “begun preliminary talks about a new contract with him.” It will be interesting to see if such talks are able to come to fruition. Gray is having an excellent season, with his current 3.67 ERA tied for a career-best, especially impressive in the thin Colorado air. Normally, it might be tough to get a player to sign an extension when he’s so close to free agency and enjoying a solid platform year, although Gray has quite recently expressed interest in remaining in Colorado long term.

That desire comes despite the fact that the Rockies are at least 15 games behind each of the Giants, Dodgers and Padres. All three of those teams seem to have enough talent and resources to be well-positioned to continue playing at high levels into the future. With the already-struggling Rockies poised to lose a talent like Story, and perhaps Gray as well, it’s hard to envision them gaining so much ground on their competitors.

Giants, Rockies Continue To Discuss Trevor Story

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2:26 pm: The Giants and Rockies remain engaged on Story with a little more than a half hour to go before the deadline, reports Feinsand.

1:03 pm: With just under two hours before the deadline, the Rockies have lowered their asking price on Story, one executive tells Sherman. That person suggests it’s now more likely than not that Story will be traded.

12:03 pm: There’s little traction between the Rockies and either of Tampa Bay or Toronto on a Story deal at the moment, hears Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Of course, the Jays just parted with a pair of top prospects to land José Berríos from the Twins, so it’s possible they might be disinclined to continue to mine the farm system for Story.

11:29 am: Some rival executives think the Rays and Blue Jays are the main contenders to land Rockies shortstop Trevor Story before this afternoon’s trade deadline, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds that the Rays, in particular, are making a “hard push” to land Story. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com suggests the Giants also have interest, while Thomas Harding of MLB.com indicates the Rockies have had discussions regarding Story with the Cardinals as well.

Of course, that’s only if Story winds up traded at all, which Sherman confirms is far from a lock. The Rockies have expressed comfort with holding onto Story for weeks. While that could just be public posturing, it seems Colorado’s planning to hang onto fellow impending free agent Jon Gray past the deadline.

The end game there, however, is to try to hammer out a long-term deal with Gray. Story, on the other hand, isn’t seen as especially likely to sign an extension. The Rockies instead would be more likely to make him a qualifying offer and receive a compensatory draft choice if/when he rejects and signs elsewhere in free agency.

Of course, Story’s play this season has complicated matters. While he looked like an obvious trade candidate coming into the year on the heels of a .293/.361/.544 performance from 2019-20, he’s struggled to produce at the plate this season. The 28-year-old has a below-average .240/.312/.429 line (84 wRC+) over 375 plate appearances. That’s surely depressing the caliber of prospect teams are willing to part with, so there’s some sense for Colorado in recouping a high 2022 draft choice if rivals aren’t putting forth especially strong offers.

The Rays, Jays, Giants and Cardinals are all new reported entrants into the Story market. Sherman adds that the Mets — who have been linked to Story for a while — are still on the periphery but that the Rockies shortstop doesn’t seem to be their top priority at this time. The Yankees, Brewers and White Sox have also all been tied to Story in the past but seem less likely after adding to their infield in other ways (Anthony Rizzo, Eduardo Escobar and César Hernández, respectively).

Yankees Shopping Luke Voit

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1:11pm: NJ.com’s Brendan Kuty also hears the Yankees are shopping Voit, however he adds that they’ve yet to receive much interest.

July 30, 12:33pm: The Yankees are “looking to trade” Voit, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link). Newly acquired Anthony Rizzo is slotting in at first base over him for the remainder of the season, and the Yankees can look to add a shortstop this winter, moving Gleyber Torres to second base and DJ LeMahieu to first base.

July 29: Luke Voit’s name has come up in trade discussions the Yankees are having with various teams, reports the YES Network’s Jack Curry (via Twitter). Voit is currently on the injured list with a bone bruise in his knee, but he’s nearing a return to the active roster.

It’s been an injury-marred season for 30-year-old Voit, who missed the first month-plus after undergoing surgery to repair a meniscus tear and then quickly landed back on the injured list with an oblique strain. This is his third IL stint of the year, and that trio of maladies has combined to limit him to 29 games and 122 plate appearances.

Voit got out to a slow start when he initially returned from knee surgery, but he was hitting quite well prior to his most recent knee troubles. In 17 games and 72 plate appearances from June 22 through July 11, Voit slashed at a .281/.361/.453 clip with a pair of homers, three doubles and a triple. That’s still a far cry from Voit’s powerhouse showing in 2020’s shortened slate of games. He appeared in 56 of the Yankees’ 60 contests last summer, hitting .277/.338/.610 and pacing all of Major League Baseball with 22 home runs.

When he’s at his best, Voit is a force to be reckoned with at the plate, but some of the Yankees’ recent dealings and rumored targets call his fit with the lineup into question. New York, for instance, has been repeatedly linked to Rockies shortstop Trevor Story in recent days. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweeted not long ago, in fact, that the Yankees’ interest in adding Story is quite real. However, acquiring Story would likely necessitate sliding Gleyber Torres to second base, thus pushing DJ LeMahieu to first base, where Voit is traditionally stationed. The presence of Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton crowds the DH scene, and if New York’s reported interest in Kyle Schwarber manifests in a trade, that would only further muddy Voit’s role.

Voit is playing the 2021 season on a $4.7MM salary and will be due a raise in arbitration this winter. The lack of playing time and diminished production from his injuries will curb his earning power to an extent, but it’s fair to expect his salary to climb north of $6MM. He’s a Super Two player, so he’ll be eligible for arbitration in each of the next three offseasons before reaching free agency upon the conclusion of the 2024 campaign.

Mets Eyeing Multiple Cubs Players, Trevor Story

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The Mets and Cubs have discussed various permutations of deals including right-hander Zach Davies and one of Kris Bryant or Javier Baez, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (all Twitter links). SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Mets are looking for pitching depth and a bat, with Bryant, Baez and Rockies shortstop Trevor Story among their targets. The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders tweets that the Mets are “very” interested in Story, though Saunders has also suggested that if the Rockies trade Story, it’ll likely happen close to the actual deadline.

Reports connecting the Mets to Bryant, in particular, date back to the offseason. He’d give the Mets the right-handed bat they covet and a defensive upgrade over the reportedly available J.D. Davis at third base, in addition to providing a corner outfield option depending on injuries or pitching matchups. Baez, meanwhile, could step in for the currently injured Francisco Lindor until he’s able to return next month, then slide over to second base. That same scenario could apply to Story.

Of the three bats in question, Bryant is having far and away the best all-around season. The former Rookie of the Year and NL MVP is slashing .267/.358/.503 with 18 home runs. Bryant endured a miserable slump in June, collecting just nine hits in 88 plate appearances and going all month without a multi-hit game, but he’s bounced back in July with a hearty .290/.405/.516 showing. He’s earning $19.5MM in 2021 and comes with the highest price tag of this high-profile trio.

Baez, earning $11.65MM in his final year of club control, has shown the most power of the bunch but also the most concerning levels of plate discipline. He’s ripped 22 homers, but as his .248/.292/.484 slash shows, his on-base abilities (or lack thereof) are somewhat troublesome. Baez has walked at just a 4.2 percent clip this year, and while he’s always been a free swinger, his current 36.3 strikeout rate is the worst among all qualified hitters. That said, he and Lindor would form a dynamic defensive middle infield tandem.

The 28-year-old Story, like Baez and Bryant, is a free agent at season’s end. He’s having arguably the worst season of his career in 2021, hitting .240/.312/.429 (84 wRC+) with 13 home runs. Eight of those long balls have come since June 20. On the one hand, that’s encouraging. On the other, he’s batted .211 with a .270 OBP in that time. Story’s track record speaks for itself — he batted .292/.355/.554 with 83 home runs from 2018-20 — but he hasn’t really found much consistency in 2021. He’s earning $18.5MM this season.

As for Davies, he’d provide the Mets with a rental starter to help cover innings at the back of the rotation while their top starters mend. Jacob deGrom is currently on the injured list, while neither Noah Syndergaard nor Carlos Carrasco has thrown a pitch for the Mets so far in 2021. (Carrasco is expected to return this weekend.) The need for help at the back of the rotation has been exacerbated by injuries to David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, Jordan Yamamoto and others.

Even among the Mets’ healthy starters, right-hander Taijuan Walker has begun to struggle, allowing 16 runs in his past 9 1/3 innings. The Mets already went out and acquired Rich Hill, but it seems they’re still understandably keen on stockpiling as much depth as possible for the final couple months of the season — and for a hopeful postseason bid.

The 28-year-old Davies has made 22 starts and pitched to a 4.39 ERA for the Cubs, but he’s averaged fewer than five innings per outing and carries some rather unsightly strikeout and walk rates. Davies’ 16.3 percent strikeout rate is third-lowest among qualified starters, while his 12.1 percent walk rate is the highest of any qualified starter in MLB. That 4.2 K-BB% differential is also last among qualified starters. Given that profile and the fact that he’s a pending free agent with an $8.625MM salary, Davies probably doesn’t carry too much standalone value.

It’s been a mostly quiet deadline season thus far for the Mets, who lead the NL East by three and a half games. The second-place Phillies, however, completed their second improbable walk-off comeback of the week yesterday to continue putting pressure on their rivals. Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News tweeted last night that owner Steve Cohen is pushing his front office to be active and improve the club, so it seems fair to anticipate some fireworks coming from Queens today.

Mets’ J.D. Davis Available In Trades

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The Mets have made slugging corner infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis available in trades, reports ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. As was rumored throughout the offseason, McDaniel notes that some execs have speculated the Mets could be hoping to include Davis as part of a package to acquire a prominent name such as Kris Bryant or Trevor Story. Nothing involving Davis is close at this time, he adds.

That Davis’ name has again surfaced in rumors only feels natural, given how prominently he was cited in offseason rumblings. The 28-year-old has been an oft-cited trade possibility despite being a vastly above-average hitter during his time with the Mets — in part due to questions about his glovework. Davis’ defense was put under a microscope early this year, in particular, when he made three errors at third base in a span of two games. He’s missed most of the season since that time, owing to a finger injury, but he hasn’t made an error since that time — a span of 18 games and 26 chances at the hot corner.

That’s not to say concerns about Davis’ glove are without merit.  He’s spent 944 career innings at third base and posted -21 Defensive Runs Saved, a -4.0 Ultimate Zone Rating and -10 Outs Above Average. It’s not a great profile, and the Mets have also tried Davis in left field. His former club, the Astros, gave him some brief looks at first base, too.

Setting the defensive question marks aside, though, the draw of Davis is very clearly his bat — and with good reason. He’s absolutely raked in 89 plate appearances this season, hitting .325/.416/.545 with four long balls and five doubles. That’s not just a total small-sample fluke, either; since being traded to the Mets, Davis has produced .292/.375/.490 batting line with 32 home runs and 36 doubles in just 771 plate appearances. He’s been 33 percent better than a league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+. That’s borderline star-level production at the plate, as that 133 wRC+ places him right alongside the likes of Rafael Devers, Jesse Winker, Trea Turner, Cody Bellinger and teammate Pete Alonso since the start of the 2019 season. Davis, quite simply, can mash.

Beyond his talent at the plate, Davis offers a long-term option for interested trade partners. He’s earning $2.1MM in 2021 as a first-time arbitration player. Davis reached arbitration a year early as a Super Two player, meaning he’s controllable for three more years beyond the current season. He can be expected to put up some strong counting numbers moving forward, which ought to make his subsequent arbitration raises notable, but this year’s missed time on the injured list will suppress his 2022 salary a bit, at the very least.

There’s no pressure for the Mets to move Davis, given that remaining control. In fact, with most expecting the universal designated hitter to come to the National League in 2022, one could argue that Davis’ value will only go up for the Mets (although the also have both Dominic Smith and Alonso, so they certainly have first base/DH options elsewhere on the roster). As was the case in the offseason, it seems likelier that the win-now Mets would move Davis in a deal to bring back MLB talent rather than prospects.

Brewers Interested In Trevor Story, Josh Donaldson, Kyle Gibson

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The Brewers are looking to add to their NL Central-leading roster, and are considering some big names.  MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter links) reports that Milwaukee has shown interest in Twins third baseman Josh Donaldson and Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, and The Athletic’s Levi Weaver tweets that Rangers right-hander Kyle Gibson is also on the Brewers’ radar.

Brewers GM Matt Arnold indicated this past weekend that the team would look into adding some hitting help,  as the Brew Crew has managed their success despite middling numbers in most major offensive categories.  Of course, Milwaukee has already made two notable trades to land hitters, obtaining Rowdy Tellez from the Blue Jays earlier this month and landing Willy Adames as part of a four-player deal with the Rays way back in May.  Tellez has looked great in his brief (30 plate appearances) since joining the team, while Adames has been nothing less than spectacular in hitting .294/.388/.537 over 232 PA.

Adames would seemingly be locked in at the everyday shortstop, though adding Story could create an interesting dilemma about who plays the position.  Both players are strong defenders, and since Kolten Wong is one of the game’s better defensive second basemen, third base would be the most obvious landing spot for either Adames or Story.  Such contenders as the White Sox and Padres were known to be considering Story at other positions, and it could be that Milwaukee was another one of the teams thinking of a creative use of Story’s ability.

Of course, just acquiring an actual third baseman like Donaldson would be a cleaner way of upgrading the hot corner, though that trade would offer another of complications.  Story is a free agent after the season, while Donaldson is guaranteed at least $50MM through the end of the 2023 (with a club option for 2024 that would add another $8MM to the ledger).  Donaldson would also be owed a $2MM bonus in the event of a trade, and it isn’t known if the Brewers are one of the clubs on Donaldson’s five-team no-trade list.

Donaldson also turns 36 in December, making him a riskier proposition for such a long-term deal even though he is still delivering big production in his age-35 season.  The Brewers already have big money committed to Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, and Yelich has been hampered by injury over the last seasons while Cain has had two injury-plagued years sandwiched around his decision to opt out of most of the 2020 campaign.

It would stand to reason that the Twins would at least listen to offers involving getting a mid-30’s player off their own books.  That said, Minnesota doesn’t have much future money committed, and the Twins are reportedly not looking to move players controlled beyond this season since the team is planning to bounce back and contend again in 2022.

Gibson is himself controlled through 2022, but at a modest $8MM price tag for next year plus the remainder (roughly $3.2MM) of his 2021 salary.  While every team wants as much pitching as possible, Gibson might be something of a luxury for a Brewers team that has gotten great-to-solid results from its rotation.  Milwaukee could see adding Gibson as a way of limiting innings for everyone to keep the rotation fresh for the postseason, and to add further length and depth to the bullpen.  However, there are many other teams with more pressing pitching needs looking at Gibson, so it remains to be seen if the Brew Crew would be willing or able to outbid the field for the veteran righty.

Latest On Yankees’ Trade Targets

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The Yankees are far from matching the kind of production they’ve set as their historical standard, but manager Aaron Boone’s much-maligned unit isn’t exactly dead in the water: they’re five games over .500 and still a very reasonable 4.5 games out of the second wild card spot. Most teams in their spot would be looking for additions to make a playoff push. The Yankees, of course, have no plans of fading into the background, and they’re surely set to make a splash or two here in the final week before the trade deadline.

Trevor Story and Starling Marte continue to be two of the most talked-about names on the market, and both Story and Marte have been connected to the Yanks in recent weeks. They’ve also checked in on Max Kepler, though the Twins’ asking price is said to be “exorbitant,” per Brendan Kuty of NJ.com.

Consider Story or Marte the more likely targets, then, though they’ll face plenty of competition for either player. Both players are, however, likely to move before the deadline. The hangup will be on finding the right match of prospects to send to Colorado and Miami, respectively.

Speculatively speaking, Story would appear the more impactful addition, given how much his glove could improve the Yankees’ defense – and how much he would affect the other pieces of the roster. Sliding Gleyber Torres to second and DJ LeMahieu to first would put all the pieces in the right places, though Luke Voit would be in a position to either move to the bench or push Giancarlo Stanton to the outfield, where the Yankees are hesitant to play him. Still, there aren’t as many teams as it might seem with a hole at shortstop, and some of those teams with obvious needs to upgrade (i.e. the A’s) have been bearish on pursuing one.

Further, ESPN’s David Schoenfield suggests they might be on the lookout for bullpen help. That might be a little offputting to hear at first, as their bullpen ranks third by fWAR this season, but there’s a lot of volume built into that metric. They rank eighth overall with a 3.67 bullpen ERA. The concern, more specifically, is their recent performance. The Yanks’ pen ranks 21st with a 5.19 ERA in July. That’s not necessarily enough to cause full-on panic, but there’s always room for another arm in the bullpen.

 

Yankees Interested In Trevor Story

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The Yankees are looking at one of the top position players that might be available at the trade deadline, as ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets that New York is one of the teams interested Rockies shortstop Trevor Story.  Roughly six to eight teams have reportedly contacted the Rockies about Story, with the White Sox being one of the names linked to the All-Star.

There have already been a few unique turns to Story’s status as a trade candidate, such as Chicago’s openness to moving Story from shortstop to second base, or an unnamed team looking into Story as a center fielder.  While the Yankees have a center field need of their own, it is probably safe to presume their interest in Story is pretty straight-forward — Story would take over shortstop from Gleyber Torres, with Torres moving to second base, DJ LeMahieu playing first base regularly, and Gio Urshela playing third base when he returns from the COVID-IL.  Luke Voit would presumably factor into the first base mix when healthy, though it isn’t known when he might return from his current knee problems.

Story is only under contract through the remainder of the 2021 season, but it would be safe to imagine that his acquisition might mark the long-term end of Torres as a shortstop.  Torres has delivered consistently below-average defense at the shortstop position, and since taking over the position full-time prior to the 2020 season, Torres’ offensive production has significantly dropped.  After batting .275/.338/.511 in 1088 PA in 2018-19, Torres has since hit only .241/.337/.348 in 497 plate appearances.

Should the Yankees be looking for a new shortstop come the offseason, they’ll have many options to pick from amidst a very star-studded shortstop class that will include Story himself.  The Yankees would certainly use their two-plus months with Story as a recruiting pitch to perhaps interest him in a long-term commitment this winter, and there would be no better enticement than if Story could help the team get into the postseason.

Playing on a $17.5MM salary for 2021, Story has about $6.97MM remaining.  It isn’t a huge sum unto itself, though it does weigh heavily for a Yankees team that has prioritized staying under the $210MM luxury tax threshold this season, and thus resetting their penalty status.  New York is already within roughly $4MM of the threshold, and the Yankees also have holes to fill in the outfield and within the pitching staff.  As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted today, the Rockies could opt to maximize their return for Story by offering to eat the rest of his salary in exchange for a better prospect return, which would certainly get the Yankees’ attention and would be a canny move to increase the trade value of a rental player.

That said, there is also some doubt that Colorado will move Story at all, since the team will get a compensatory draft pick should Story reject the qualifying offer and sign elsewhere in free agency.  The Yankees would have to top the value of that compensatory pick, which New York might not be willing to do for a rental player, and if the team is ultimately competing just for a one-game wild card playoff at this point (given the eight-game gap between the Yankees and the first-place Red Sox in the AL East standings).

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