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Trevor Story

Rockies Activate Trevor Story

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The Rockies have reinstated shortstop Trevor Story from the 10-day injured list in advance of tonight’s game against the Marlins. He’s back in the starting lineup, hitting fourth in the order. Infielder Alan Trejo was optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque to create active roster space. Story has been out since May 28 due to right elbow inflammation.

The Rockies are surely happy to welcome their best player back into the fold, but the bigger focus for the out-of-contention club is on Story’s impending free agency. The 28-year-old is among the top players scheduled to hit the open market in a few months. It certainly looks as if Story won’t wind up re-signing with the Rockies, making him one of the more likely players in the game to change teams this summer. MLBTR’s Steve Adams placed Story second among the league’s top trade candidates last week, only behind teammate Jon Gray.

It hasn’t been a banner season to this point for Story. He was off to just a .255/.322/.424 start before going on the IL. Regardless, there’ll be plenty of interest from contenders as the deadline approaches thanks to his strong track record. Between 2018-20, he hit an impressive .292/.355/.545 with 83 homers in 1571 plate appearances.

Report: Trevor Story Not Planning To Re-Sign With Rockies

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Trevor Story is widely seen as one of the top trade candidates in baseball, and if the Rockies don’t move him prior to the July 30 trade deadline, they reportedly can’t count on him returning as a free agent for 2022 and beyond.  Story doesn’t plans to re-sign with the Rox when he hits the open market this winter, sources tell Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post.

The two sides hadn’t discussed an extension as of February 23, according to Story, though it isn’t known if any negotiations took place during March or even beyond Opening Day.  That said, given the amount of discussion that would go into working out a long-term deal worth well north of $200MM, the fact that the Rockies had yet to broach the subject even by late February of Story’s walk year could be seen as a sign that the team wasn’t counting on Story sticking around.

Frankly, it would be more surprising if Story did have designs on a return to Denver, considering that the Rockies are struggling through another losing season and seem closer to a rebuild than a return to contention.  Interim GM Bill Schmidt told Saunders and other reporters that the team has been showing some improvement on the field, and felt that the Rockies were just a few clutch hits away from having a much better record than their current 24-36 mark.  Even if Colorado was a few games closer to the second NL wild card slot than its current 10.5-game deficit, however, that still shouldn’t change the equation about how the Rockies seem overdue to reshuffle their roster.

Regardless, it’s clear that the Rockies haven’t publicly thrown in the towel on the 2021 season just yet, as Schmidt said that it’s “not necessarily” the case that Story or Jon Gray would be dealt.  Trade discussion has yet to pick up in general, as Schmidt said that “some clubs have reached out and expressed (interest), if we get to that point.  But there has not really been anything to talk about…There is nothing really to follow up on.”

Saunders doesn’t feel the team would move Story prior to the All-Star Game in Denver, so it will likely be over a month before trade speculation can really begin in earnest on Story, Gray, or any other Rockies.  Plus, Story has to take the first step of just getting back on the field, as the shortstop has been on the 10-day injured list since May 28 (retroactively) due to right elbow inflammation.  Colorado manager Bud Black told MLB.com’s Thomas Harding and other reporters that Story is expected to be ready for the start of the Rockies’ series with the Marlins on Tuesday.

When and if Story’s trade market picks up, both MLB Network’s Jon Morosi and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale expect the Athletics to be involved.  Oakland is leading the AL West despite getting sub-replacement player value from Elvis Andrus at shortstop, as Andrus is hitting only .214/.259/.273 through 201 plate appearances.  Most of those struggles were contained to the first month of the season, as Andrus has hit a more respectable .295/.337/.385 over 83 PA from May 7 to June 5, but there is little doubt Story would be a much bigger upgrade for an A’s team that has postseason aspirations.

Payroll would be a major factor in any potential Story/Oakland deal, as the shortstop is owed $17.5MM for the 2021 season and will still have approximately $5.92MM in remaining salary by late July.  While it doesn’t seem like a huge splurge for an All-Star shortstop, it remains to be seen what the budget-conscious A’s have available to spend, or if they feel the value of having Story for a World Series push is worth both the salary outlay and the prospects the A’s would be sending to Colorado in a trade.

Rockies Notes: Story, Joe, Trejo, Bowden

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The Rockies can breathe a sigh of relief: There is no structural damage to Trevor Story’s elbow, per the Athletic’s Nick Groke (via Twitter). The star shortstop’s MRI came back clean, so the Rockies can now look forward to his return as early as next Tuesday.

While the biggest news out of Colorado was no doubt results of that MRI, they also completed a couple of roster moves. The Rockies recalled infielder Alan Trejo from Triple-A and optioned Connor Joe.

Joe has done a nice job in 52 plate appearances, particularly getting on base with a .365 OBP, but the 25-year-old Trejo brings the ability to play up the middle. At least while Story is out, Trejo provides the Rockies with more defensive insurance, especially as they run with a four-man bench. Trejo made his Major League debut earlier this season, slashing .216/.268/.270 in 41 plate appearances.

Yesterday, southpaw Ben Bowden was reinstated from the injured list and optioned to Triple-A, per the team. The 26-year-old Vanderbilt product posted a 6.39 ERA/4.54 FIP in 15 appearances prior to the left shoulder strain that landed him on the injured list.

Rockies Place Trevor Story On 10-Day Injured List, Reinstate Matt Adams

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The Rockies have placed shortstop Trevor Story on the 10-day injured list with right elbow inflammation, retroactive to yesterday. Matt Adams has been reinstated from the injured list to take his roster spot, per the team.

Story’s health will now be a top article for the Rockies moving forward. This is an injury he dealt with back in 2018, notes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. There’s plenty of time to get him back into the lineup to prove his health before peak trade season, however. The Rockies, of course, have to consider their trade options for Story, a free agent at the end of the season. His numbers are down a touch thus far with a triple slash line of .255/.322/.424 through 205 plate appearances, though there would still be plenty of interest should the Rockies ultimately decide to deal their franchise player. In the meantime, Brendan Rodgers steps in at short in what could prove to be an audition for the role in the long-term.

Adams, 32, returns to his role primarily as a bopper off the bench. “Big City” hasn’t had much opportunity since slugging 20 home runs for the World Champion Nationals in 2019. He has stepped to the plate just 72 times between this year and last for the Braves and Rockies, respectively. In total, Adams has just two long balls in that span with a .162/.208/.279 slash line.

Lucas Gilbreath has also been recalled to serve as the 27th man for today’s doubleheader, notes Fangraphs’ Roster Resource architect Jason Martinez. The 25-year-old southpaw has an 8.59 ERA over 7 1/3 innings this season, the first Major League action of his career.

Trevor Story Leaves Game Due To Finger Injury

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Rockies star shortstop Trevor Story left today’s game after being hit by a pitch on his right index finger.  During an eighth-inning plate appearances against the Diamondbacks’ Chris Devenski, Story was hit in the hand and appeared to be in notable discomfort.  Story took his base and actually ended up stealing second as part of a double-steal with lead runner Garrett Hampson, but Story was replaced at shortstop in the bottom half of the inning.

X-rays were negative on Story’s finger, manager Bud Black told The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters after the game.  While this might not prevent a brief injured-list stint given the vagaries of finger and hand injuries, it’s at least very good news that Story appears to have avoided a more serious problem.

Story went 1-for-3 with a walk and a two-run homer in today’s 8-4 Rockies loss to Arizona, giving the shortstop a .284/.348/.520 slash line and four homers over 115 plate appearances.  It’s the type of strong offensive performance that has become common for the two-time All-Star and Silver Slugger winner, and between both his bat and his defense, Story will be a heavily-pursued commodity on the free agent market this winter.  (MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes placed Story fourth in the most recent edition of the Free Agent Power Rankings.)

Any kind of injury or potential IL placement is certainly noteworthy given Story’s influence on both the offseason market, and as a potential trade chip this July.  The Rockies dropped to 10-18 after today’s loss, and the recent resignation of Jeff Bridich as the team’s GM is perhaps a sign that Colorado is preparing for a change of direction and perhaps a selloff at the trade deadline.

Carlos Correa vs. Trevor Story

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In the comment section on my recent 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, there was a lot of debate about the merits of shortstops Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, who seem to clearly fall behind Corey Seager in the upcoming free agent class.  Which player will have greater earning power in free agency?

Some points of comparison:

Age on Opening Day 2022

  • Correa: 27.54 years
  • Story: 29.39 years
  • Difference: 1.85 years

Age is a crucial factor in free agent contract length, as teams want to avoid as many decline years as possible.  Capturing a player’s age 27 season in free agency is a rare thing.  In the cases of Bryce Harper (13 years), Manny Machado (10 years), and Jason Heyward (eight years), teams were actually able to capture age 26.  There are not any other recent cases of free agent deals that included age 26 or 27.

Machado signed for ten years and $300MM, while the Mets recently extended Francisco Lindor for ten years and $341MM, albeit with deferred money.  The players were paid through age 35 and 37, respectively.  A contract running through age 37, as Lindor’s does, is pretty rare.  I think teams will be looking to commit to Correa and Story through age 35 or 36, at most.  Paying through age 35 would mean a nine-year deal for Correa, though that might be a long shot given his inconsistency and injury history.  It’d mean a seven-year deal for Story.  Those terms would only be available if the players are considered highly desirable after strong 2021 seasons.

Offense

Rest of 2021 Season ZiPs/Steamer projections in wRC+

  • Correa: 125 / 118
  • Story: 102 / 103

2019 to present wRC+

  • Correa: 126
  • Story: 117

2018 to present wRC+

  • Correa: 115
  • Story: 121

2018 was Story’s best year (128 wRC+) and one of Correa’s worst (101), so whether you include it makes a big difference.  But it’s pretty clear that Correa has a higher ceiling, with marks of 136 in 2015, 152 in 2017, and 143 in 2019.  As we’ll discuss later, Correa was quite clearly affected after returning from a back injury in 2018, so I think the “2019 to present” numbers are a better reflection of his true ability.

Why use wRC+?  It’s park-adjusted, so it neutralizes the fact that Story has played 50.7% of his games in Coors Field.  If you cite straight-up numbers with no adjustment, you’d clearly prefer Story.  I think any MLB team interested in Story would attempt to neutralize the effects of Coors, though.  It is not as simple as looking at Story’s work on the road and assuming that’s how he’d play for a new team in a neutral ballpark.  But since 2018, Story does have a huge split: a 136 wRC+ at home, and 105 on the road.  In terms of triple slash, Story is at .266/.327/.450 on the road since 2018, and .316/.379/.642 at home.

Story may follow the path of Matt Holliday.  From 2005-07, Holliday posted an even more extreme 166 at home and 108 on the road.  He was not a 108 wRC+ hitter after leaving Coors, however, putting up an excellent 145 mark from 2008-13, mostly for the Cardinals.  Holliday was able to spend all of his 2009 contract year away from Coors, posting a 141 wRC+ for the A’s and Cardinals that likely helped him land the largest contract of the 2009-10 offseason.  DJ LeMahieu is another example of a former Rockie who continued to hit well after posting extreme splits.

In the likely event Story is traded this summer, he’ll have a chance to demonstrate his standard 120 wRC+ production in a more neutral environment for a few months.  That’s more likely than a Correa trade, and being free of a qualifying offer would be an advantage for Story.

It makes little sense to remove park factors, when Minute Maid Park has suppressed offense (outside of 2019) while Coors Field has inflated it by a minimum of 12% during Story’s career.  But for comparison, Correa has hit .276/.352/.483 since 2017 and .258/.334/.453 since 2018.  Story stands at .278/.342/.524 since 2017 and .291/.353/.547 since 2018.  Story has reached the 35 home run mark twice, while Correa’s career-best is 24.

As for Correa, what about the sign-stealing scandal?  According to MLB’s report, the bulk of the Astros’ sign-stealing efforts were in 2017, in which Correa put up a career-best 152 wRC+.  He was excellent both at home and on the road, though the scheme is only thought to have occurred at the Astros’ home park.  MLB’s report suggested the Astros did not utilize trash-can banging in 2018, when Correa dropped down to 101.  That 101 mark may be explained by a back injury, which I’ll get into later.  The Astros also weren’t thought to be cheating in 2019, but Correa bounced back to a 143 mark.

Astros fan Tony Adams analyzed home data for the Astros from 2017, and found 140 total trash can bangs for George Springer and 97 for Correa.  If potential free agent suitors consider Springer and Correa equally complicit in the sign-stealing, it would bode well for Correa, since the scandal didn’t seem to have much effect on Springer’s market.  Ultimately, like Springer, Correa just needs to go out and have a big contract year if he wants to get paid.  There’s a solid argument that in a neutral ballpark, he’s a better hitter than Story.

Defense

By measure of UZR/150, Story is at 3.9 since 2018, while Correa sits at -3.5.  Story also leads in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), though that’s a cumulative stat and he played an additional 1,042 innings in the field – 47% more than Correa did.  Outs Above Average, which is part of Statcast, is more sophisticated than UZR or DRS, but doesn’t necessarily tell a clear story.  Here’s each player’s OAA by year:

  • 2016: Story 4 (823 innings), Correa -17 (1355.6 innings)
  • 2017: Story 7 (1185.3 innings), Correa -3 (946 innings)
  • 2018: Story -5 (1372.6 innings), Correa 17 (959 innings)
  • 2019: Story 18 (1257.3 innings), Correa 9 (642.3 innings)
  • 2020: Story 2 (491.3 innings), Correa 3 (475 innings)

It would appear that Story’s defense slipped to a below-average level in only one season, 2018, on which OAA and UZR/150 agree.  There’s no clear injury in 2018 to explain the lapse, though he miss a few late September games with elbow soreness.  Story was able to improve his range and reduce his errors in 2019, and seems to have settled in as an above-average defender.

We’ll talk about durability in the next section, but with Correa we have a player who has tallied 1,000 innings in the field exactly once, in his 2016 sophomore season.  UZR suggested he was a bit below average that year, while OAA had him as the game’s worst defensive shortstop.

2018 is particularly odd for Correa, where OAA shows him as the game’s fourth-best defensive shortstop while UZR/150 has him as the fourth-worst.  That was a year in which Correa avoided the IL until late June, at which point he missed over a month due to a back injury.  He acknowledged that the injury played a role in his plummeting offense, and his OAA was lower after the injury.  MLB.com’s Mike Petriello suggested to me that the Astros’ frequent shifting, and UZR’s lack of accounting for that, might account for the difference between the two stats.

Correa suffered another major injury toward the end of May 2019 – a cracked rib that cost him two months – as well as more back pain in late August of that year.  Nonetheless, his defense doesn’t seem to have suffered.

Both Story and Correa have been above average defenders since 2019, ranking fourth and ninth respectively in OAA.  Story is carried largely by his 2019 season, for which he was voted a Gold Glove finalist for the first time.  Though he has dropped off so far this year, Story has often ranked among the top 40 in the game in terms of sprint speed, which is a factor in his defense.  I think it’s safe to say that Story is the superior defender.  It’s worth noting that Correa has already expressed a willingness to move to third base if needed, while the topic hasn’t really been broached for Story.

Durability

Story was drafted 45th overall by the Rockies out of high school in 2011.  As a minor leaguer in 2014, he missed roughly a month due to hairline fracture on his left pinky finger.  The Rockies traded longtime shortstop Troy Tulowitzki in July 2015, taking on Jose Reyes in the process.  In 2016, Reyes was suspended through May to begin the year under the league’s domestic violence policy, opening the door for Story to make the team out of camp.  After becoming the Rockies’ starter in 2016, Story’s season ended on July 30th due to a torn UCL in his left thumb that would require surgery.  It was still good for a fourth-place Rookie of the Year finish.

A new injury popped up in May 2017, as Story strained his left shoulder and missed the minimum two weeks.  In late September 2018, Story exited a game with right elbow soreness, but he missed only five games.  In June of 2019, Story injured his right thumb after a headfirst slide, with the resulting IL stint costing him 11 games.

That’s the full extent of Story’s injury history in his five-plus years.  He’s played in 522 games since 2017, 14th in all of MLB.  Story was able to recover quickly from minor injuries in 2017, ’18, and ’19, and can safely be penciled in for 145-150 games annually.

Correa was drafted first overall by the Astros out of high school in 2012.  He dealt with only minor injuries in the minor leagues until June 2014, when he suffered a fractured right fibula sliding into third base and had to undergo surgery.  By January 2015, his ankle was back to 100%.

Correa opened the 2015 season at Double-A, a defensible choice since he’d yet to play at that level.  He reached Triple-A by May and went on to make his big league debut on June 8th.  The timing worked out well for the Astros to receive part of a seventh year of control of Correa and also avoid Super Two status, but his starting the year in the minors was justified.  Correa played 99 dynamic regular season games in 2016, avoiding injury and winning the Rookie of the Year award.

2016, just Correa’s age 21 season, was perhaps the best of his career.  He missed three games in June with an ankle sprain and another four with shoulder inflammation, but avoided the IL.  Correa would play 153 games in the regular season that year, the only time he’s exceeded 110 Major League games in a season.

Correa’s injury history is significant, but also limited to the three-year period of 2017-19.  On July 17th, 2017, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, “Correa left Monday’s 9-7 loss to the Mariners in the fourth inning after injuring the thumb on a swing, the same thumb he originally hurt sliding head-first into home July 4 in Atlanta.”  The torn thumb ligament required surgery and cost him more than six weeks.  He returned successfully in September of that year.

Correa’s next IL stint was in June of 2018 due to a back injury.  Like the thumb the prior year, this injury cost him about a month and a half.  Though he returned in mid-August, the issue lingered and affected his performance for the rest of the season.  From 2015-19, 2018 is Correa’s only season with a wRC+ below 123, and it’s easy to attribute his overall 101 mark that year to his back injury.  Correa had a 128 wRC+ before the injury, and just a 45 mark thereafter.

Correa’s back healed up and he started yoga in the 2018-19 offseason, but a cracked rib suffered in late May 2019 cost him a full two months.  Oddly, Correa said the rib was cracked by what must have been a particularly aggressive massage.  After he’d been back for about a month, he went on the IL again due to a back injury.  Since then, Correa has avoided the IL, playing in 58 of 60 games in 2020.

Both Story and Correa have been starters since 2016.  Story has played in 619 games – 19% more than Correa’s 520.  Is Correa, who has yet to reach his 27th birthday, simply an injury-prone player?  Or might he settle in at 150 games per year if he avoids headfirst slides and rough massages?  If I was looking at signing him, it’s his back that I’d be concerned about, as it cost him roughly two and a half months during the 2018-19 seasons.  150 games this year would go a long way.

Overall Value

Much of Correa’s value is packed into the earlier years of his career, when he put up 13.7 WAR in 361 games from 2015-17.  He’s managed only 6.1 WAR since, roughly the same as what Story did in 2019 alone.  Career-wise, Correa leads Story 19.8 to 17.9.

From 2018 to present, Correa has been good for 3.7 WAR per 650 plate appearances, while Story is at 5.4.  From 2019 to present, those numbers are 4.7 for Correa and 5.5 for Story.  But here’s how each player projects for the rest of the season per 650 PA, according to FanGraphs:

  • Correa ZiPS: 5.0
  • Correa Steamer: 4.1
  • Story ZiPS: 3.5
  • Story Steamer: 2.9

If you buy those projections, Correa will be the better per-game player moving forward, likely due to the age difference.  Aside from the durability question, that is what MLB teams must determine when offering these players contracts: who will be better over the next seven years or so?

With that lengthy comparison of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, I turn it over to you.

Rockies, Trevor Story Haven’t Discussed Extension

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Barring a contract extension, Rockies shortstop Trevor Story will be one of the most sought-after free agents on the open market next winter. The Rockies don’t expect to trade Story before the season starts, but they also haven’t discussed a long-term deal with the 28-year-old, Nick Groke of The Athletic tweets.

“Yeah, it’s a contract year, but to me, every year is pretty much that way,” Story said.

This doesn’t mean the Rockies and Story won’t find a deal in the next few weeks, as extensions often take time to come together during spring training. However, odds seem to be against the Rockies retaining Story, especially after they let go of third baseman Nolan Arenado – who partnered with Story to form a tremendous left side of the infield – in a trade with the Cardinals this month.

The Rockies did save quite a bit of money in giving up Arenado, which could help them extend Story. But the Rockies don’t look as if they’ll contend in the near future, which might help prevent Story from inking a long-term pact with the club. If there isn’t a deal in place by the summer trade deadline, Story will be a prime candidate to wind up on the move.

Story is set to earn $17.5MM in 2021, when he’ll try to follow up on a stellar three-year run in which he batted .292/.355/.554 (124 wRC+) with 83 home runs and 65 stolen bases in 1,571 plate appearances. He also notched 20 Defensive Runs Saved and a 10.3 Ultimate Zone Rating at short during that span. The entire package was worth 13.5 fWAR, which ranked 10th among position players and placed Story right behind fellow shortstops Francisco Lindor and Xander Bogaerts.

As of now, Story and the Mets’ Lindor are scheduled to be part of a loaded class of shortstops in free agency next winter. The Dodgers’ Corey Seager, the Astros’ Carlos Correa, the Cubs’ Javier Baez, the Blue Jays’ Marcus Semien and the Twins’ Andrelton Simmons are also on track to reach the open market then.

GM Jeff Bridich: Trevor Story Expected To Begin Season With Rockies

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With Nolan Arenado now officially on his way to the Cardinals, questions have inevitably turned to the future of another star Rockies infielder in Trevor Story.  The shortstop is entering the final year of his contract, but the team expects that Story will begin 2021 in a Colorado uniform, as GM Jeff Bridich told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter links) and other reporters today.

Bridich stopped short of saying that Story wouldn’t be traded whatsoever, as “it’s very difficult to predict what the coming months will look like.”  Beyond just Story, however, Bridich more firmly stated that the Arenado trade wasn’t the first of many for his team.  “This certainly is not a total tear-down and rebuild….If that was the case, certain players already would have been traded,” the general manager said.

That comment could be a more pointed reference to Story, considering how Story can be a free agent next winter.  The shortstop has been cited as a logical trade candidate for months, though while reports in December suggested the Rox were at least considering the possibility, there hasn’t been much in the way of concrete news about specific teams pursuing Story.  That said, it’s probably safe to assume that every team in need of a shortstop this offseason at least placed a call to Bridich to check in on Story’s availability.

While that list of possible suitors has narrowed as several notable shortstops have come off the board in free agency and in the trade market, there would certainly still be plenty of interest in Story if the Rockies changed course and shopped him now, or even in midseason as a pure trade deadline rental.  A case could certainly be made that Colorado is better off moving him now in order to maximize Story’s trade return, since waiting until closer to the trade deadline creates added risk of an injury, or Story struggling, or teams being less willing to give up multiple prospects since they’d only have Story for a portion of a season rather than all of 2021.

However, the Rockies seem intent on not throwing in the towel on the coming season.  At today’s press conference, owner Dick Monfort told The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other media that “I truly believe this is a very talented team that underperformed the last two years.”  Monfort has been notably over-optimistic about his team in the past (most notably his prediction almost exactly one year ago that the 2020 Rockies would win 94 games), and even if the Rockies were better than their 2019-20 records indicate, that certainly isn’t a promise of future success.  Colorado has done little this offseason besides trade Arenado, while the Dodgers and Padres now seem prepared to dominate the NL West for years to come.

Cardinals Agree To Acquire Nolan Arenado

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10:32pm: Arenado will receive another guaranteed year on his contract for roughly $15MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that he could waive his no-trade clause as early as Saturday.

8:51pm: The Cardinals and Rockies have swung an enormously impactful trade centering on Colorado third baseman Nolan Arenado, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was among those to report. The Rockies will send around $50MM to the Cardinals in the deal, according to Rosenthal, who adds that it likely won’t be official tonight and perhaps won’t go through this weekend.

Arenado has a full no-trade clause, though Rosenthal and Nick Groke of The Athletic reported earlier this week that he is likely to waive it in order to join the Cardinals. The five-time All-Star also has an opt-out clause in the seven-year, $234MM extension he signed with the Rockies before the 2019 campaign. But Arenado would still be able to opt out after 2021, he’d get an additional opt-out after ’22 and he would keep his full no-trade clause, Rosenthal tweets. He still has $199MM left on his pact over the next six years.

This has been a low-profile winter for St. Louis and the rest of its competition in the National League Central competition, but the Cardinals have suddenly come alive after a long slumber. Before agreeing to acquire Arenado, they re-signed right-hander Adam Wainwright, and indications are that they’ll bring back catcher Yadier Molina. Of course, in terms of impact, Wainwright and Molina pale in comparison to Arenado, one of baseball’s highest-profile stars. The well-rounded Arenado, who will turn 30 in April, has batted .293/.349/.541 with 235 home runs in 4,558 plate appearances since he debuted in 2013. Arenado has also totaled a whopping 120 Defensive Runs Saved and a 56.4 Ultimate Zone Rating at third base, where he has won eight straight Gold Gloves.

While Arenado was hugely successful in Colorado, his relationship with the team was – in a word – rocky over the past couple years. The Rockies were a playoff team from 2017-18, but they’ve dropped off drastically since. After the club fell well shy of a playoff spot in 2019, Arenado made it known he was unhappy with the direction of the franchise, saying he felt “disrespected.” Arenado frequented trade rumors then, but the Rockies retained him during what turned into another subpar year for the organization. It was also a disappointing campaign for Arenado, who slashed a career-worst .253/.303/.434 with eight homers in 201 PA.

Even though 2020 didn’t go as planned for Arenado, the Cardinals are clearly banking on him to serve as their long-term solution at third base. The team primarily used Matt Carpenter and Tommy Edman there last season, which was a playoff year. However, Carpenter went through his second straight below-average year, and he’s only signed for one more season. Carpenter is due to earn $18.5MM in 2021, while his $18.5MM option for 2022 is sure to be bought out for $2MM if he’s still with the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the versatile Edman could be the Cardinals’ pick at second base.

The Arenado pickup will obviously be a significant investment for the Cardinals, whose chairman, Bill DeWitt Jr., drew ire last summer for saying baseball’s not a “very profitable industry.”  But the Cardinals suddenly do look as if they’re aiming to take over the NL Central in 2021, especially with none of their other division rivals – the reigning champion Cubs, Reds, Brewers or Pirates – doing much to better themselves this offseason. Certainly, if the Arenado trade is finalized, it will be the biggest acquisition in the division this winter.

The Rockies, on the other hand, looked to be in for a third consecutive lean year in 2021 before trading Arenado, and that’s all the more true with the face of their franchise on his way out the door. They’ll likely acquire lefty Austin Gomber as part of the return, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Rosenthal names first baseman Luken Baker, outfielder Jhon Torres, and righties Jake Woodford and Angel Rondon as other possible names the Rockies could acquire. Gomber debuted in the majors in 2018 and has posted a respectable 3.72 ERA over 104 innings, though that production obviously falls quite a bit short of the impact Arenado has made.

With Arenado leaving, the question now is whether the Rockies will deal shortstop Trevor Story, who’s entering his platform year. Story would no doubt bring back a sizable return in a trade, as he is among the top players in the game at his position. It would seem to make sense for the Rockies to part with him if they’re not expecting to contend in 2021, but they may be interested in extending him, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays.

Shortstop Notes: Simmons, Story, Polanco

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The Phillies, Reds, and Jays (among others) are those taking a look at Andrelton Simmons, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Phillies and Reds are natural fits for the former Angel, given their openings at shortstop. The Blue Jays have notably explored many avenues for improvement. In the case of Simmons, it would mean raising their defensive efficiency in the infield, presumably by installing Simmons at short and letting Bo Bichette slide to third, where he would no doubt be a plus defender. At present, it would be surprising if the Phillies and Reds aren’t able to nab a shortstop apiece from the group of Simmons, Marcus Semien, and Didi Gregorius, given their clear need compared to other teams around the league. Considering the group of shortstops that could become free agents next year, teams could be trying to limit their long-term commitments at the position, though that’s not as likely as negotiations simply hanging up because of total dollars as teams hunt value deals.

  • Speaking of free agents to be, the Rockies’ Trevor Story may be the one of the bunch most likely to hit free agency next summer. At present, Colorado remains unmoved in their position to neither trade nor extend their star shortstop, per ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). At times this winter, they have been open to the idea of moving Story, but the most likely outcome still appears to be Story playing out the 2021 season in Coors Field and then hitting the open market.
  • The Twins may be one of the mystery teams taking a look at Simmons. When asked by Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (video link) if Jorge Polanco would be their opening day shortstop, Twins GM Thad Levin said, “I think we look at our team and say Byron Buxton’s our opening day centerfielder, and Josh Donaldson’s our opening day third baseman – almost everyone else on our team has defensive flexibility. We view that as a huge boon to our team.” Wolfson notes that the Twins know the asking prices for free agent shortstops Simmons and Marcus Semien are keeping an eye on it.
  • To be clear, Levine in no way implied that Polanco would not be a big part of their team in 2021, only that they consider the defensive malleability of the current roster as one of their advantages – both in the market and on the ball field. By DRS, OAA, and UZR, Polanco has measured as a subpar defender at shortstop throughout his career, and the Twins may see value in moving him to second in order to upgrade the infield defense on the whole. More broadly, the Twins appear keen on making the “best” free agent deal they can find, regardless of position. If flexibility really is central to the Twins’ philosophy, that could help explain any reticence they might have about locking Nelson Cruz into the designated hitter spot . That said, it’s hard to imagine finding any player better at their position than Cruz was as their DH the last two seasons (163 wRC+).
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