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MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Astros?

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The Astros have been a juggernaut dating back to 2017, evidenced by their three 100-win efforts, two American League pennants and World Series title. However, thanks to the sign-stealing scandal from their championship-winning campaign, the Astros’ recent excellence has been sullied in the minds of many observers. Although the club’s the reigning AL champion, it’s now going into 2020 with plenty to prove on the field. It also has a new GM and manager, having parted with the eminently successful Jeff Luhnow-A.J. Hinch duo after MLB issued each of them one-year suspensions for their roles in Houston’s misdeeds.

With spring training closing in, the Astros moved quickly to replace Luhnow and Hinch after firing them in mid-January. They tabbed former Rays vice president of baseball operations James Click on Monday to take over for Luhnow in the wake of selecting veteran Dusty Baker as their new manager last week. Click’s coming over from an organization known for doing a lot with a little, but despite the chaos that has enveloped the Astros, he’s not walking into a franchise low on talent. The 70-year-old Baker, meanwhile, is a calming influence and a longtime winner whom the Astros hope will help them sail through stormy waters.

Of course, one of the knocks on Baker is that he has never helped guide a team to a title in his 22 seasons as a manager. Could that change in 2020? Perhaps, though he’s inheriting a roster that has taken some hits this offseason. There’s no more ace Gerrit Cole, who left for the hated Yankees for a record contract after two straight sterling seasons in Houston. There’s also no more standout reliever Will Harris, who became a National in free agency, or offensive-minded catcher Robinson Chirinos (now a member of the division-rival Rangers). And the Astros haven’t done anything remotely splashy via the trade or free-agent markets (the latter of which is all but devoid of impact players now) to cover for their key departures or strengthen other aspects of their roster.

While this has not been a banner winter for the Astros, they do still look to be contenders on paper. Last year’s all-world offense – one fronted by Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, George Springer and Michael Brantley, among others – remains intact. Better still, the Astros could get full seasons from Alvarez (the 2019 AL Rookie of the Year whom they didn’t promote until almost halfway through June) and the Altuve-Springer-Carlos Correa trio after those stars were limited by injuries in the most recent campaign. And while Cole and now-Red Wade Miley are gone from their rotation, the Astros still boast an elite top two with reigning AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke. They’ll also get Lance McCullers Jr. back from Tommy John surgery, though it’s up in the air how the rest of Houston’s starting staff will look once Opening Day arrives.

As nightmarish as this winter has been for the Astros, there’s no denying there’s plenty of talent still on hand. However, another 107-win season may be too much to ask – especially with their division having gotten stronger in recent months. The Athletics, a 97-win club twice in a row, look capable of challenging for the crown. Meantime, the Angels and Rangers appear to have made significant improvements after the pair stumbled to sub-.500 records a year ago. All that said, how do you expect the scandal-ridden Astros to fare this season?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Diamondbacks?

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It has been an eventful offseason, perhaps unexpectedly, in Arizona. The club stayed on the periphery of the NL Wild Card race much of last season, but they never had especially strong postseason odds. Ultimately, they did fall short, finishing four games back of the Brewers for the final playoff spot. They were certainly not a bad team, going 85-77, but they were hardly dominant.

Entering the offseason, the club looked positioned to be relatively active. They had some payroll flexibility already, and they freed up more room on the books by non-tendering Taijuan Walker and Steven Souza, Jr. Nevertheless, it came as a bit of a surprise to see the Snakes act as aggressively as they have this winter.

That activity started in mid-December, when they brought in Madison Bumgarner from the division-rival Giants on a backloaded five-year, $85MM contract. Shortly thereafter came the signing of Kole Calhoun on a two-year, $16MM deal (with a club option for a third year). Calhoun, the Angels’ decision to decline his team option for 2020 notwithstanding, had a productive bounceback effort in 2019, putting up a .232/.325/.467 slash (108 wRC+) with his customary solid defense. He’ll presumably line up alongside the recently-extended David Peralta as the Snakes’ top two corner outfielders.

Between Calhoun and Peralta will be a Marte, but not the one who manned center most often in the desert last offseason. Starling Marté was brought aboard in a trade with Pittsburgh this week, a move MLBTR readers generally approved of. That frees up star Ketel Marte to move back to second base, where the club got mediocre production last season and faced the free agent departure of Wilmer Flores.

Beyond Ketel Marte, there’s not a true star on the roster, but there are very few obvious weaknesses, either. Carson Kelly, Christian Walker, Eduardo Escobar, and Nick Ahmed round out the projected lineup. Bumgarner and Robbie Ray figure to front a rotation hoping for full seasons from midseason trade acquisition Zac Gallen and the returning Luke Weaver.

There’s probably not many more noteworthy moves coming this offseason. Per Roster Resource, the Starling Marté trade brought the club to an estimated $123MM payroll. That’s generally in line with their expenditures in recent seasons. Furthermore, GM Mike Hazen threw cold water on the idea of blowing past prior spending levels in December.

So, if this is indeed the team Arizona will head into the season with, just how good are they? Can they threaten the perennial powerhouse Dodgers in the NL West? Have they done enough to at least position themselves as a Wild Card favorite?

(poll link for app users)

Who Signs First, Yasiel Puig Or Brock Holt?

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After two winters of pretty stagnant free agent movement, it is somewhat remarkable that 48 of the players on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list have already found new teams by February 2.  We look back at all these signings and the nonstop array of misses in our — okay, my — set of picks in the free agent prediction contest, only two players remain available, both former All-Stars: the controversial Yasiel Puig (37th in our rankings) and longtime Red Sox utilityman Brock Holt (41st).

Jeff Todd examined Puig’s market earlier this week, listing a wide range of teams that could still be speculative fits for the outfielder.  The problem facing Puig, however, is that “speculation” is all we have to go on after an offseason that has been short on hard news about the former Dodger.  The Marlins and White Sox were both linked to Puig at various points, though those clubs seem to have already addressed their outfield needs, as Miami signed Corey Dickerson and Chicago acquired Nomar Mazara in a trade with the Rangers.  An argument could be made that Puig might still be a fit for the Sox as a platoon partner with Mazara, though the Pale Hose seem committed to seeing if Mazara can still blossom as an everyday player (and if necessary, another right-handed outfielder could potentially be found at a lower price tag than Puig).

The Tigers were our pick for Puig’s next team back in November, though GM Al Avila recently said that Puig was “not a priority” for the club, despite Detroit’s lack of outfield depth.  It could be a bit of gamesmanship on Avila’s part if there are some negotiations going on with Puig’s representatives, though it could also reflect a potential league-wide truth — Puig isn’t seen as a must-have option.  He might not receive many looks until we get deeper into Spring Training, and opportunities develop due to injuries, or teams becoming dissatisfied with their in-house outfield choices.

Puig hasn’t been his biggest ally due to some of his off-the-field antics, though that focus on his personality tends to obscure the fact that he is still only 29 years old, and still a productive player.  Even acknowledging that 2019 was a down year, Puig still batted .267/.327/.458 with 24 homers over 611 PA with the Reds and Indians, good for a league-average 100 OPS+ and 101 wRC+.  You have to figure that some team will eventually take the leap to sign Puig because of what he has demonstrated over his seven MLB seasons.

Holt is older (31) than Puig and seemingly has none of the baggage, as Holt was popular with both teammates and fans over seven years with the Red Sox.  Holt has been a classic jack-of-all-trades over his career, making at least nine starts at every position on the diamond except pitcher and catcher and filling in whenever a need has arisen.  For instance, Holt has primarily played second base over the last two years due to Dustin Pedroia’s ongoing knee problems.  Over 2295 plate appearances, Holt has also provided a solid average (.271) and on-base percentage (.340), even if his .374 slugging percentage doesn’t promise much pop.

Given the trend towards multi-positional players in today’s game, it is somewhat surprising that Holt is still looking for a new team.  With so many clubs seemingly trying to develop a young player into their own version of a super-utilityman like Holt, you’d think one team would have moved to sign the 1.0 version now that he has hit the open market.  Then again, the catch-22 of Holt’s versatility is that while it makes him a fit on virtually any team in baseball, it also (like Puig’s situation) doesn’t make him a “priority” of a signing.  As in, teams will turn to Holt to fill roster holes, but only after they see if their current utility candidates can pan out.

The Reds and Blue Jays have both shown interest in Holt this winter, and the Red Sox also had some talks about a reunion early in the offseason, though there hasn’t been any news on that front since Chaim Bloom was hired as Boston’s chief baseball officer.

We still have time before Spring Training opens, so it might yet be a while before either Puig or Holt put pen to paper on a new contract.  But which do you think will be the first to land with a team?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: NL East Favorite

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The World Series champions came from the National League East in 2019, when the appropriately named Nationals took home their first-ever title. It has been an active few months in the division since then. Even the notoriously low-budget Marlins have gotten in on the act, having added multiple veterans in an attempt to climb out of the gutter in 2020. Odds are that the Marlins still won’t be in the race, though, so who’s the front-runner among the other four to win the division this year? It appears they’re all legitimate candidates.

Although the Nationals just won it all, they did so by getting into the playoffs by way of a wild-card berth, not an NL East title. That honor went to the Braves for the second year in a row. The Braves still have not been victorious in a playoff series since 2001, and they lost their No. 1 free agent, third baseman Josh Donaldson. However, even in the wake of Donaldson’s departure, they still bring a formidable roster to the table. Outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr., first baseman Freddie Freeman, second baseman Ozzie Albies and right-hander Mike Soroka haven’t gone anywhere. They’re now complemented by free-agent additions in outfielder Marcell Ozuna, lefty Cole Hamels and reliever Will Smith, among others.

Like the Braves, the Nats lost their marquee free agent, another third baseman in Anthony Rendon. There’s no easy way to replace him, though the team does have Asdrubal Cabrera on hand as a stopgap until standout prospect Carter Kieboom is ready to assume the reins. Rendon’s exit hasn’t deterred Washington from trying to go for a second straight title in 2020, as the club has re-signed righty Stephen Strasburg, to name one of several players, and picked up first baseman Eric Thames, second baseman Starlin Castro and reliever Will Harris from outside.

The Mets and Phillies were the next best teams in the division last season, and both clubs have new managers (Luis Rojas for New York, Joe Girardi for Philadelphia). They also have different-looking rosters compared to then. The Mets lost righty Zack Wheeler to the Phillies, whose $118MM guarantee ranks among the richest of the offseason. They still boast a quality rotation, though, with Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz and the newly signed Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha in the mix to complement back-to-back Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. They also continue to feature a solid lineup headlined by the powerful Pete Alonso, last season’s NL Rookie of the Year, as well as Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil.

The Phillies did far more heavy lifting last offseason than this winter, but they’ve still been aggressive with the signings of Wheeler, who should give them a true No. 2 starter behind Aaron Nola, and shortstop Didi Gregorius. On paper, they look like a better team than the one that finished an even 81-81 a season ago.

Philly was a fourth-place squad in 2019, but it may be in line to push for a division title this year. However, it’ll have to overcome three strong clubs in the Braves (97-65), Nats (93-69) and Mets (86-76). The offseason isn’t over yet, but as of now, which team do you think is the favorite?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Kris Bryant’s Future

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The long-running service-time grievance battle between Kris Bryant and the Cubs finally came to an end Wednesday. To no one’s surprise, Bryant lost the hearing – had he won, he’d have been eligible to reach free agency after 2020 instead of 2021 – though it took longer than expected for a decision to come down.

[RELATED – MLBTR Video: Kris Bryant Loses Grievance]

Bryant’s grievance was heard back in October, not long after the Cubs’ disappointing 2019 season came to an end. Back then, there was widespread belief that the Cubs would shake up their roster this offseason, maybe even with a Bryant trade, but they’ve instead sat on the sidelines for the most part. There hasn’t been a core-altering trade, nor have there been any especially noteworthy signings, leaving the Cubs with a team which doesn’t look any better than the one that mustered 84 wins and a third-place finish in the National League Central a season ago.

Spring training is fast approaching, so the window’s shrinking for an earth-shaking Cubs trade to come together before the season. Still, despite the outcome of his grievance, it’s up in the air how much longer Bryant will last as a Cub. There was trade speculation centering on the 28-year-old former NL MVP before Wednesday, and it continued then with a rumor linking him to Colorado and a one-for-one swap for fellow star third baseman Nolan Arenado. That type of deal seems highly unlikely to occur, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams detailed, though that doesn’t mean someone (Dodgers? Rangers? Braves?) won’t make the Cubs a palatable offer for Bryant sometime soon.

Of course, if the Cubs plan to contend in 2020, it’s hard to imagine a Bryant trade doing anything but worsening their chances. At the same time, moving him could presumably upgrade a farm system that has already made recent improvements and, to many fans’ chagrin, help the club avoid the luxury tax in 2020. Bryant’s due a $18.6MM salary, and getting rid of it would put the Cubs under the $208MM threshold by a fair margin (they’re currently projected at $214MM-plus, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource). That said, the Cubs have until the end of the season to get under $208MM, meaning they may be inclined to see how they perform over the first few months of the year before deciding whether to sell off Bryant or any other high-priced players.

Bryant, for his part, doesn’t seem like a player who’s champing at the bit to get out of Chicago. Even though the grievance didn’t go his way, Bryant harbors “no ill will whatsoever” against the Cubs, which is yet another reason they don’t have to trade him. Nevertheless, we could still see more Bryant-headlined rumors in the coming weeks. Do you expect him to open 2020 as a Cub?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Reds?

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The Reds entered the offseason on the heels of their sixth straight sub-.500 showing, but president of baseball operations Dick Williams made it known at the end of the campaign that a seventh consecutive subpar effort wouldn’t be acceptable. The team’s goal when the winter began was to build its first playoff-level roster since 2013, and with most of its offseason heavy lifting likely done by now, there’s a case Cincinnati has done just that.

As we noted previously, the Reds have been one of the highest-spending teams in the National League in free agency. They’ve added two $64MM players – infielder Mike Moustakas and newly signed outfielder Nick Castellanos – as well as $21MM outfielder Shogo Akiyama (their first-ever Japanese player) and $15MM left-hander Wade Miley via the open market.

Now, the Reds’ position player cast – a group that finished last season 21st in WAR and 25th in runs – suddenly looks promising with Castellanos, Akiyama and some mix of Jesse Winker, Aristides Aquino and Nick Senzel in the outfield, Joey Votto at first base, Moustakas at second and Eugenio Suarez at third. But there are questions in the group, including the health of the 49-home run man Suarez – who could miss the beginning of the season after undergoing right shoulder surgery – and the strength of their catcher and shortstop positions. Both spots looked ripe for upgrades when the offseason began, but the Reds have so far stuck with Tucker Barnhart and Freddy Galvis, respectively, despite their interest in landing a much more formidable option at short. Moreover, there’s the possibility of a Senzel trade, which could provide a helpful return for one of the Reds’ weak spots, but Williams doesn’t sound like someone who’s ready to deal the prized 24-year-old.

Meanwhile, there doesn’t appear to be a lot to worry about in the Reds’ starting staff. Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani and Miley comprise an impressive one to five on paper, though Bauer did have more than a little bit of trouble preventing runs after the Reds acquired him from the Indians last July. The bullpen, although largely untouched this offseason, also boasts its share of stone-cold locks. Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Robert Stephenson and Amir Garrett are all returning after posting respectable or better numbers in 2019.

While it’s nice for the Reds that they’ve bettered their roster since last season’s 75-win effort, it’s also a boon that their division has seemingly taken steps back. The Cardinals won the NL Central in 2019, but they haven’t done anything all that notable since, and they just lost their No. 1 free agent, outfielder Marcell Ozuna, to the Braves. The Brewers – fresh off their second straight playoff season – have seen quite a few changes (good and bad) to their roster, including the losses of Moustakas and an even better free agent in catcher Yasmani Grandal. The Cubs have been quiet after a dismal finish to last season, and it’s still not out of the realm of possibility they’ll trade Kris Bryant or another important member of their roster before the new campaign rolls around. And then there’s the Pirates, who figure to be among the worst teams in the game this year.

Between the improvements they’ve made and the actions (or lack thereof) of their divisional foes, this may be the time for the Reds to return to relevance in the NL. The way their roster looks now, do you think they’re capable of doing so?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Will The Dodgers Swing A Blockbuster Trade?

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The Dodgers entered the winter in a gloomy state after a bitterly disappointing end to the 2019 season. But the team’s outlook remains exceptionally bright, with a compelling mix of established veterans, elite young talent, and quality role players along with the means to bolster and/or supplement that group as desired.

Despite the Dodgers’ regular-season and postseason successes — the team has seven-straight NL West titles and made it to the World Series in 2017 and 2018 — the lack of a ring and the stunning recent NLDS wash-out have left a lingering sense that something more or different could or even should be done. Reporting indicates there’s an internal a desire to shake things up in some manner, though obviously the front office isn’t inclined to reinvent the wheel.

It’s not unlike the sunny malaise experienced by the organization’s forebears in Brooklyn. Those Dodgers had an enormously successful decade without a crown (1945 to 1954) and fell short in the World Series four times in seven years (1947 to 1953). They waited ’til next year until finally breaking through in 1955.

The present-day Dodgers hope it won’t be quite that dramatic when they finally win it all. But there are quite a few more MLB teams and playoff rounds now than there used to be, making it harder to control randomness. That increases the appeal of prioritizing long-term competitiveness — the Nationals’ own recent breakthrough helps demonstrate this — but also perhaps speaks in favor of maximizing those clear chances that do arise to win it all.

The Dodgers have managed to walk an impressive line between long and short-term goals. Still, it hasn’t come together quite yet. With so many pieces already in place, the focus entering the present offseason was on adding true impact talent. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman spoke of having a dozen-player wish list. While the club has made a few targeted investments in buy-low, high-upside pitchers, it has yet to swing a major deal for a star player.

Surely some or most of the L.A. targets are already off the board in one way or another — all of the top free agents have signed, of course — but there’s little doubt that a few remain available. We’ve long heard, especially, that the Dodgers maintain interest in superstars Mookie Betts of the Red Sox and Francisco Lindor of the Indians. Cleveland ace Mike Clevinger is another who has come up in rumors. And it stands to reason there are a few other high-quality players of interest.

Dodgers president/CEO Stan Kasten said earlier this winter that the organization is “laser-focused” on winning a World Series after coming maddeningly close in recent years. “There are guys that we think could be difference makers and we have pursued them, we are continuing to pursue them, when there is an opportunity we will certainly jump at it,” Kasten explained.

The clock is ticking but there’s time left before Spring Training opens. A mid-camp strike is less likely but perhaps not out of the realm of possibility. So … do you think the Dodgers will pull off a blockbuster before the start of the season?

(Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Starling Marte Trade

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They’re throwing a Marte party in the desert. The Diamondbacks on Monday acquired center fielder Starling Marte from the Pirates in a blockbuster trade that saw shortstop prospect Liover Peguero, young righty Brennan Malone and $250K in international money go to Pittsburgh in return. Arizona now happens to have the top two Martes in the majors in Starling and Ketel Marte, the Diamondbacks’ primary center fielder from 2019 who broke out as a star and will now occupy second base most of the time.

For the Diamondbacks, an 85-win team from last year that’s trying to give the Dodgers a better fight in the NL West, the addition of Starling Marte is the latest win-now move in an offseason packed with them. The D-backs’ previous pickups came via the open market, where they signed left-hander Madison Bumgarner, right fielder Kole Calhoun, relievers Hector Rondon and Junior Guerra, and catcher Stephen Vogt.

There are concerns with Marte’s game, including iffy defensive metrics, a past PED suspension and a career-long aversion to drawing walks. Still, he’s unquestionably one of the most valuable center fielders in the sport. The 31-year-old has accounted for at least 3.0 fWAR in each of his six full seasons, and is coming off his second straight 20-20 effort. Marte posted a .295/.342/.503 line with 23 home runs and 25 stolen bases across in 586 trips to the plate.

Of course, we’d be remiss not to mention that Marte’s contract only makes him more appealing from Arizona’s standpoint. He’ll earn a fairly economical $11.5MM this year and could make $12.5MM next season if the Diamondbacks exercise his club option in lieu of a $1MM buyout. Assuming Marte continues his steady production in 2020, picking up that option will be a no-brainer for the team.

In Pittsburgh’s case, Marte’s age, waning control and the Pirates’ rebuilding status all combined to send him out of the Steel City after months of trade rumors. It was an understandable decision on new Pirates general manager Ben Cherington’s part to cash in the Marte chip, though there’s dissatisfaction in Pittsburgh that the team’s ultra-low payroll shrunk even more as a result of the deal. The Pirates could put at least some money back into their roster by finding a Marte replacement before the season, which is Cherington’s plan, but they’re unlikely to find a player of his caliber.

Regardless of how the Pirates’ payroll looks in the wake of Marte’s exit, the club did land a couple promising farmhands in Peguero and Malone. Both 19-year-olds are a ways away from major league opportunities, having not gotten past the low-A level yet, but they were seen as two of Arizona’s most intriguing prospects. Two months ago, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel ranked Peguero fifth in the Diamondbacks’ system, comparing him to former D-back Jean Segura. The flamethrowing Malone checked in at No. 10 on the list, meanwhile, with Longenhagen and McDaniel writing that the 33rd overall pick from last year’s draft has “a mid-rotation starter look.”

Thanks to the youth of Peguero and Malone, we’ll have to wait for a while to see how this trade pans out. At first glance, though, how do you like it for both teams? Weigh in below …

(Arizona poll link for app users)

(Pittsburgh poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Mookie Betts’ Red Sox Future

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Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts has been one of multiple superstars involved in trade speculation this offseason, joining the likes of Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor and Kris Bryant. The Betts rumors got especially interesting Thursday when a report indicated the Red Sox and Padres have discussed a swap centering on the 27-year-old. It doesn’t seem there has been a great deal of traction in those talks, but it’s still interesting that Boston seemingly hasn’t closed the door on parting with its franchise player just weeks from spring training.

A couple years ago, the idea of the Red Sox trading Betts would have come off as preposterous. He was a 10-WAR, AL MVP-winning player in 2018 as the Red Sox steamrolled the competition en route to 108 regular-season wins and a World Series title. Neither Betts nor the Red Sox were close to as good last season, but he was still unquestionably one of the majors’ top performers, slashing .295/.391/.524 with 29 home runs and 6.6 fWAR.

If the Red Sox had their druthers, Betts would probably be the guy they’d build around. But Betts has publicly expressed a desire to test the free-agent market a year from now. Betts’ uncertain future beyond this season, in which he’ll earn an arbitration-record $27MM salary, as well as the team’s preference to duck the luxury tax have helped open the door for a trade. And if the Red Sox want to upgrade their farm system in the process (which seems to be the case), there may not be a better place to send Betts than prospect-rich San Diego.

The Padres likely have the prospect capital to make a deal happen, but it will be difficult for them or anyone else to get Betts out of Boston. New chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said just last week that he expects Betts to open 2020 as a member of the Red Sox. In the wake of the latest Betts trade rumors, though, do you believe he’ll still be on the BoSox roster when the new season starts?

(Poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: How Much For Nicholas Castellanos?

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Yet another of this offseason’s best free agents exited the board when the Braves reeled in outfielder Marcell Ozuna on a one-year, $18MM guarantee Tuesday. Many high-profile free agents have earned more money than predicted this winter, but Ozuna’s one of the few standouts whose new deal checks in well south of expectations. For instance, MLBTR forecast in November that the former Marlin and Cardinal would come away with a three-year, $45MM guarantee.

With Ozuna no longer available, fellow outfielder Nicholas Castellanos is now unquestionably the No. 1 free agent in baseball. Those two have been closely linked for months, as they entered the winter as the premier unsigned outfielders and have been connected to some of the same teams via the open market. For what it’s worth, MLBTR originally tabbed Castellanos for a four-year, $58MM deal at the outset of the offseason. And as recently as December, the plurality of MLBTR readers who voted in a poll on Castellanos’ earning power said he’d make $55MM to $70MM.

Now, in the wake of Ozuna’s lighter-than-expected payday, perhaps you’re less bullish on Castellanos’ next contract. Age (28 in March) and a lack of a qualifying offer are working in Castellanos’ favor (Ozuna was stuck with a QO), as is his recent track record of above-average offensive production. On the other hand, Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings, initially at third base and then in the outfield, have been written about to death. Furthermore, it’s unclear just how large his market is now. The Braves could have been a fit for him, but they’re out now after signing Ozuna. The Marlins, Diamondbacks and White Sox were part of the Castellanos rumor mill earlier in the offseason, but they’ve addressed their needs in other ways since then. Castellanos was outstanding as a member of the Cubs in the second half of last season, though they’ve shown no willingness to spend a substantial amount on anyone so far this winter. Likewise, the Giants – even though they want to improve their offense – haven’t spent aggressively.

Teams like the Rangers, Cardinals, Reds and some mystery club(s) seem like the most logical suitors for Castellanos at this point. The Rangers have been connected to Castellanos more than anyone else of late, though they reportedly like him more as a first baseman than an outfielder. The Cardinals just lost Ozuna, potentially putting them in the market for a heavy hitter to replace him, but owner Bill DeWitt Jr. indicated this week that they’re all but tapped out from a payroll standpoint. The Reds, though, could arguably still stand to add an established corner outfield bat.

Regardless of where Castellanos plays next, do you expect him to follow in Ozuna’s footsteps and collect a more modest pact than expected? Or will Castellanos eventually become yet another of this offseason’s free agents to cash in big?

(Poll link for app users)

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